CC2012 Proceedings

Proceedings
Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012 Budapest, Hungary
Editors: Mikls Hajdu, Mirosaw J. Skibniewski
PROCEEDINGS
Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012 Budapest, Hungary Editors-in-chief: Mikls Hajdu Mirosaw J. Skibniewski
All rights are reserved for the Faculty Ybl Mikls at Szent Istvn University, Budapest, Hungary, except the right of the authors to (re)publish their materials wherever they decide. This book is a working material for the Creative Construction Conference 2012. The professional and grammatical level of the materials is the authors' responsibility.
Published by Diamond Congress Ltd., the secretariat of the Conference H-1012 Budapest, Vrmez t 8. Responsible publisher: Rbert Hohol www.diamond-congress.hu Technical editing by Krmn Stdi, Budapest
ISBN 978-963-269-297-5
Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary
CONTENT
Refaat Abdel-Razek, Hesham Bassioni, Marwa Tahseen MANAGING INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IN CONSTRUCTION FIRMS: A SUGGESTED FRAMEWORK Joseph Ahn, Hyun-Soo Lee, Moonseo Park, Bo-Sik Son, Minhyuk Jung IFC-CBR BASED COST MODEL FRAMEWORK DEVELOPMENT Ibrahim Al-Hammad EVALUATION OF SAUDI PUBLIC WORKS CONTRACT Abbas Al-Hdabi, Hassan Al Nageim, Felicite Ruddock, Linda Seton COLD ROLLED ASPHALT SURFACE COURSE CONTAINING WASTE MATERIALS Hassan Al-Nageim, Monower Sadique RECYCLING OF INDUSTRIAL WASTES TO PRODUCE NEW CEMENT FOR CONSTRUCTION Salman Azhar, Samuel Philips, Malik Khalfan, Syed M. Ahmed APPLICATIONS OF BIM FOR FACILITY MANAGEMENT: CASE STUDIES Menoka Bal, David Bryde, Damian Fearon, Edward Ochieng THE INFLUENCE OF STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION SUSTAINABILITY Dennis C. Bausman, Snowil Lopes POST OCCUPANCY PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF LEED CERTIFIED BUILDINGS Dennis C. Bausman, Daniel R. Mattox QUALITY MANAGEMENT Thomas Bock, Thomas Linner, Christos Georgoulas, Melanie Mayr, Johannes MeyerAndreaus INNOVATION DEPLOYMENT STRATEGIES IN CONSTRUCTION Orsolya Bokor, Tams Kocsis THEN AND NOW: COST CALCULATION OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN THE 20TH AND 21ST CENTURY David Bozsaky LABORATORY TESTS AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF CORNSTALK INSULATION BLOCKS Alberto De Marco, Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem, Sabrina Grimaldi, Carlo Rafele A FRAMEWORK METHODOLOGY FOR SELECTION OF RISK ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS Selim Tugra Demir, David James Bryde, Damian John Fearon, Edward Godfrey Ochieng AGILEAN PROJECT MANAGEMENT TIME FOR CHANGE IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS Zlata Dolaek-Alduk, Ksenija ulo, Mario Gali SUBCONTRACTING IN CROATIAN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY Nabil Ibrahim El Sawalhi MODELLING THE PARAMETRIC CONSTRUCTION PROJECT COST ESTIMATE USING ANN
8 18 26 31 42 57 68 80 90
105
119
132
142
152 163 170
B. Er, A. Kazaz, S.Ulubeyli JUST IN TIME IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS: A CASE STUDY Mikls Hajdu IMPACTS OF RISKS ON PROJECT SCHEDULING: CAN OPTIMISTIC PROJECT DURATION BE GREATER THAN THE PESSIMISTIC ONE? Istvn Hajnal ESTIMATION OF VALUE MODIFICATION FACTOR WITH HEDONIC MODELING: A CASE STUDY Tarek Hegazy, Wail Menesi CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULING: CPM FOR PLANNING AND CPS FOR CONTROL P. M. Gameiro Henriques, N. F. Godinho Teodoro CONTRIBUTION TO SUSTAINABILITY IN CONSTRUCTION: RECYCLING AND REUTILIZATION OF MATERIALS P. M. Gameiro Henriques, S. C. Morais Neves STUDY OF THE APPLICABILITY OF CONSTRUCTION SYSTEMS IN THE PERFORMANCE OF SUSTAINABILITY IN CIVIL ENGINEERING Christabel M. F. Ho SITUATIONAL INFLUENCES ON QUANTITY SURVEYORS WHEN FACING ETHICAL DILEMMAS Boena Hoa, Andrzej Polak, Krzysztof Gawron, Marek Sawicki, Maciej Morka, Wiktor Gronowicz, Mirosaw Skibniewski KNOWLEDGE MAPS FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED CONSTRUCTION FIRMS A. Tolga Ilter, Attila Dikbas A REVIEW OF TURKISH CONTRACTORS ICT APPROACHES Shabtai Isaac, Mohsen Andayesh, Farnaz Sadeghpour A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF LAYOUT PLANNING PROBLEMS Shafik M. Jendia, Abed Al-hameed A. Qreaq'a REUSE OF RECYCLED AGGREGATES OF DEMOLITION BUILDING DEBRIS AS AN ASPHALT BINDER COURSE IN ROAD PAVEMENTS Tnde Jenei ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIAL RISKS OF GEOTHERMAL INVESTMENT, RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS A. Kazaz, B. Er, S. Ulubeyli APPLICABILITY OF INTEGRATED PROJECT DELIVERY SYSTEM TO PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN TURKEY Jae Hee Kim, You Gyeong Jo, Min Ji Kim, Han Soo Kim CURRENT TRENDS IN GREEN CONSTRUCTION POLICIES AND IMPLICATIONS IN KOREA Serkan Kivrak, Gokhan Arslan, Mustafa Tuncan IMPACT OF NATIONAL CULTURE ON SAFETY MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
182
189
199 208
219
235
246
252 263 272
283
292
303 309
319
Iva Kovacic, Lars Oberwinter BIM-SUPPORTED LIFECYCLE-ORIENTED DESIGN FOR ENERGY EFFICIENT INDUSTRIAL FACILITY - A CASE STUDY Renata Kozik, Elbieta Starzyk ANTI-CRISES REGULATION INTRODUCED INTO THE PUBLIC PROCUREMENT LAW AND THEIR IMPORTANCE FOR THE CONSTRUCTION MARKET IN POLAND K. C. Lam, C. Y. Yu AN INVESTIGATION TO THE CONCESSION PERIOD LENGTH DETERMINATION OF BOT PROJECT Gza Lmer SOME NOTES ON THE DEFINITION OF RISK AND THE PREDICTABILITY OF RISKS Jeoung Hoon Lee, Moonseo Park, Hyun-Soo Lee, Sungjoo Hwang, Myoung gy Moon ANALYZING KOREAN BUILDING CONSTRUCTION MARKET RESPONSE TO THE APPLICATION OF PERFORMANCE WARRANTY CONTRACT USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS Yong-Wook Lee, Seokjin Choi, Seung H. Han, Jae-Jin Lee SELECTING THE BRIDGE TYPES THROUGH AHP PLUS CONJOINT ANALYSIS APPROACH Agnieszka Leniak, Krzysztof Zima SELECTED PROBLEMS OF COST ESTIMATION USING BIM Sherif Malek, Kareem Zahran, Ossama Hosny, Ahmed Elhakeem INTEGRATING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK & GENETIC ALGORITHM TO OPTIMIZE HIGH PERFROMANCE CONCRETE MIX DESIGN A MANAGEMENT PERSPECTIVE Levente Mlyusz, Attila Pm PREDICTION OF the LEARNING CURVE IN ROOF INSULATION PyongSu Min, Woosik Jang, Seung Heon Han, Kang Wook Lee DECIDING PROCUREMENT STRATEGIES FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS WHILE CONSIDERING OFF-SITE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS Andrzej Minasowicz, Janusz Kulejewski, Andrzej Foremny, Pawe Kluczuk, Aleksander Nica CONSTRUCTION MANAGERS LIBRARY AS A NEW METHOD OF PROMOTION, CERTIFICATION AND MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF MANAGERIAL SKILLS ACCORDING TO THE EU REQUIREMENTS Andrzej Minasowicz, Janusz Kulejewski, Andrzej Foremny, Pawe Kluczuk, Aleksander Nica DISTANCE LEARNING WITHIN MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION - POLISH AND NORWEGIAN EXPERIENCES WITH EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE Cristbal Moena, Alfredo Serpell UNIT PRICE ESTIMATING OF ROADS MAINTENANCE ACTIVITIES USING EXPONENTIAL ROBUST REGRESSION Gray Mullins, Rajan Sen, Danny Winters, Mike Stokes, Julio Aguilar SUSTAINABLE FRP REPAIR USING EXTERNAL PRESSURE Claus Nesensohn, David James Bryde A REVIEW OF THE EVOLUTION OF LEAN CONSTRUCTION
329
340
346 357
368 377 389
400 410
420
432
442
450 461 468
Lars Oberwinter, Iva Kovacic BUILDING INFORMATION MODEL VISUALIZATION THROUGH JAVASCRIPT-ENHANCED 3D-PDF INTERFACES Kas Oosterhuis NEXT GENERATION BUILDING Kamalesh Panthi, Syed M. Ahmed, James Patterson, John Hillman SAFETY INCENTIVE PROGRAMS- GOOD OR BAD RESOURCE FOR CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES? John-Paris Pantouvakis, Antonios Panas SIMULATION ANALYSIS FOR FLOATING CAISSONS CONSTRUCTION OPERATIONS John-Paris Pantouvakis BUILDING INFORMATION MODELING (BIM) FOR DATA SHARING & COLLABORATIVE WORKING IN CONSTRUCTION Lu Chang Peh, Sui Pheng Low CASE-BASED REASONING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR ARCHITECTURAL AND ENGINEERING CONSULTANCY FIRMS Nicolae Postvaru, Radwan Aktaa, Cristina V.Icociu INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION, WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE PROJECTS FINANCED BY E.U. IN ROMANIA FOR 2007 2014 AND PERSPECTIVE FOR 2020 Nicolae Postvaru, Klmn Ills CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES INVESTMENT ECONOMICAL EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS Augustin Purnus, Victoria Shavyrina TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES FOR DECISION SUPPORT IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS Ibrahim Abdul Rashid, Hesham Bassioni, Faez Ba-Wazir A TOOL FOR ASSESSING AND IMPROVING SAFETY PERFORMANCE IN LARGE CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES IN EGYPT Adrian Robinson, Jeremy Wedge, Edward Sauven, Tony Swindells, Alistair Gibb, Simon Austin EMBODIED CARBON OF SHIPPING CONTAINER ARCHITECTURE BASED ON AN ISO STANDARD PLATFORM Zoltn Rosts USING VISUAL PROJECT MANAGEMENT TOOLS IN MUSEUM DEVELOPMENT Urszula Ryciuk, Mirosaw Skibniewski TRUST MANAGEMENT ISSUES IN CONSTRUCTION SUPPLY CHAINS Rizal Sebastian DEVELOPMENT AND REFURBISHMENT OF ENERGY-EFFICIENT RESIDENTIAL DISTRICTS BASED ON COLLECTIVE SELF-ORGANISED HOUSING PROCESSES Zvonko Sigmund, Mladen Radujkovi, Damir Lazarevi INTEGRATED SEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CODES AND THE REAL LIFE PRACTICE
477 488
496 507
518
529
538 550 561
573
584 595 605
612
620
Mirosaw J. Skibniewski CREATIVITY IN CONSTRUCTION: A LOOK AT THE PAST AND A PEAK INTO THE FUTURE Anna Sobotka, Daniel Walach, Dorota Pawlus, Agata Czarnigowska SURVEY ON PROJECTS SUPPLY CHAIN IN POLISH ROAD CONSTRUCTION Anna Sobotka, Piotr Jaskowski, Agata Czarnigowska, Daniel Walach AGGREGATE SUPPLY DECISION MODEL FOR ROADWORKS Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem, Alberto De Marco, Kristen Barlish A REVIEW OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT Zbigniew Tokarski, Anna Sobotka, Dorota Pawlus, Agata Czarnigowska SUPPLY CHAIN OF A HIGHWAY REPAVING PROJECT - CASE STUDY OF A2 HIGHWAY SECTION IN HOLLAND Tams Tth, Zoltn Sebestyn, Mikls Hajdu FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT ASPECTS OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS Marco Lorenzo Trani, Benedetta Bossi, Luca Guastalegname ENERGETIC CONSUMPTION PREDICTION ON CONSTRUCTION SITE Yick-tat Tsang, S. Thomas Ng, Kachi Lam SELECTION OF FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES IN HONG KONG BY FACTOR ANALYSIS Jieh-Jiuh Wang, Xin-Rong Wu, A STUDY ON THE CONTEXT AND PRACTICE OF NATURAL BUILDING Chih-ming Wu, Wen-der Yu, Tai-shiuh Chen ENHANCED FUNCTION MODELING FOR ANALYSIS OF INNOVATIVE CONSTRUCTION TECHNOLOGIES Patcharaporn Yanpirat, Tirayot Thamwongsa PRODUCT COST REDUCTION OF READY-MIXED CONCRETE BY UTILIZING MANUFACTURED SAND: A CASE STUDY Bilal Zafar, Rafiq Muhammad Ch. FACTORS AFFECTING COMPETENCY OF MASONS IN CONSTRUCTION Kareem Zahran, Ahmed Waly APPLYING LEAN THINKING TO CEMENT PLANT CONSTRUCTION PROCESS Cheng Zhou, Lieyun Ding, Ran He PSO-BASED ELMAN NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF AIR CHAMBER PRESSURE IN SLURRY SHIELD TUNNELING Josef Zimmermann, Wolfgang Eber PARAMETERS OF PERCEPTIBILITY OF RISKS IN REAL ESTATE AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
629 636 646
656
667 678 691
701 711
723
738 752 760
770
789
MANAGING INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IN CONSTRUCTION FIRMS: A SUGGESTED FRAMEWORK

Refaat Abdel-Razek Professor and Director of Technology Management Program, College of Graduate Studies, Arabian Gulf University, Kingdom of Bahrain, refaathar@agu.edu.bh Hesham Bassioni Associate Professor, Dept. of Construction & Building Eng., Arab Academy for Science, Technology & Maritime Transport, Abu Kir, Alexandria, Egypt, hbassioni@yahoo.co.uk; hbassioni@aast.edu Marwa Tahseen Assistant Lecturer, Dept. of Construction & Building Eng., Arab Academy for Science, Technology & Maritime Transport, Abu Kir, Alexandria, Egypt; marwatasheen@yahoo.com
Abstract Studies show that a significant number of problems in the construction industry are due to lack, or delay, of communication and information. The industry relies heavily on information and communication technology (ICT) applications. This research aims at developing a framework that improves the management of ICT applications in terms of their evaluation, selection and implementation. The framework builds on the Information Technology (IT) Audit Tool introduced by the Construction Industry Council in the UK, and on concepts of information economics, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and project selection methods. The four main framework procedures are: assess the current ICT situation; determine required improvements; prioritize ICT applications by measuring their financial and non-financial aspects; and the final selection of appropriate ICT applications. The assessment of the current ICT situation is performed using the IT Audit Tool. Criteria of financial and non-financial evaluation are based on relevant literature and information economics concepts. Their relative weights are assessed using the Delphi Technique and AHP to prioritize ICT applications. Finally, project selection methodology is used to select the most appropriate ICT applications. Each framework procedural step is explained, particularly the financial and non-financial evaluation of applications selection procedure. The main outcome of this paper is the introduction of a suggested framework that can be used to manage ICT applications in a more effective and efficient manner. It can also be used for guidance to companies in measuring the benefits and risks of ICT applications. This is particularly useful since the cost of implementing some applications appears to be overly high, until account is taken of the indirect and intangible benefits which are incorporated into the selection process outlined in this framework. Furthermore, suggestions for improvement to the IT Audit Tool are discussed. The criteria used in the framework are based on relevant literature and confirmed and evaluated by experts. These criteria and their relative importance might differ from one firm to another
depending on the firms infrastructure and levels of expertise. However, the criteria and their relative importance can be assessed to reflect their appropriateness in different contexts without invalidating the framework. This makes the framework practical and flexible to suit different firms. Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, Information and Communication Technology, Audit Tool.
1. INTRODUCTION
Construction Information and Communication Technology (ICT) encompasses the range of technologies for gathering, storing, retrieving, processing, analyzing and transmitting information (South Dakota Educational Technology Standards Glossary, 2010). It is of paramount importance in the construction industry since it can greatly assist decision makers and solve innumerable construction problems (Gyampoh & Moreton, 2003). Surveys and studies showed that about 5080% of the industrys problems are due to lack of information, or delays in receiving it (Akinci, Kiziltas, Ergen, Karaesmen, & Keceli, 2006). Most of this information is collected from the construction site and delivered to another project party, so an effective collection, control and transfer tool should be used to increase operation efficiency. Moreover, construction development and growth in national economy are tied to the development in ICT. Therefore, introducing ICT in construction will lead to the effective planning, execution and control of all organizational and project activities (Shash & Al-Amir, 1997). This study aims to. The remaining paper is divided into the following sections: ICT benefits and implementation barriers in construction; development and procedures of the framework; and Conclusion and Recommendations. The framework process itself is divided into: assessing current ICT status; determining required improvements; prioritizing ICT applications; and finally selecting appropriate ICT applications.
2. ICT BENEFITS AND IMPLEMENTATION BARRIERS IN CONSTRUCTION

Benefits of ICT applications in the construction industry are numerous, some of which are: enhances communication and collaboration between project participants (Brandon, Li, & Shen, 2005); enhances information share and accessibility; overcomes the problem of data exchange and retrieval between different organization departments, in addition to decreasing data capturing problems (Information Technology Construction Best Practice, 2008) and (Cordella, 2006); improves firm and schedule performance (El-Mashaleh, OBrien, & Minchin, 2006); improves productivity (Marsh & Flanagan, 2000). Despite these benefits, the construction industry is lagging behind other industries in its application of ICT due to the many barriers hindering its introduction (Marsh & Flanagan, 2000). Some of these barriers are reported in the literature. The difficulty either in identifying and measuring ICT benefits, or, where benefits can be accurately measured, the quality and level of decision-making which is required to ensure
that the most suitable applications are adopted (Marsh & Flanagan, 2000). Vidogah and Moreton (2003) explained that due to legal and cultural aspects, paper rather than software is used for exchanging information; construction industry problems are unique (coordination between drawings, industry fragmentation, under-capitalization, etc), rendering technologies which have been applied successfully in other industries unusable or difficult to implement. They also stated that managers are not convinced about the benefits of technology, since they usually consider short term rather than long term benefits, or they are simply not aware of the advantages of using ICT, or do not want to take the risk of trying the technology (Information Technology Construction Best Practice, 2008), (Vidogah & Moreton, 2003). From an overview of the literature it is concluded that the various tools that already exist do not totally overcome these barriers to ICT implementation. What is suggested is a more effective tool especially tailored to the needs of the construction industry, a tool which would: a) enable managers/decision makers to be aware of the appropriate ICT applications that are beneficial to their organizations; b) measure the benefits and risks of each application; c) prioritize these applications; and finally, d) select the ICT applications most beneficial to the organization according to the budget assigned.
3. DEVELOPMENT AND PROCEDURES OF THE FRAMEWORK

The framework was built using the information technology audit tool, as a guide, introduced by the Construction Industry Council (CIC) U.K. (1998) and the IT/IS project selection framework presented by Stewart and Mohamed (2002), information economics concepts, and the evaluation matrix presented in the project evaluation technique. Four main procedures representing the framework are to be followed. A flowchart summing up these procedures is shown in Figure 1.
3.1 Assess Current Organizational ICT Situation The first step in evolving the framework is to clearly define the companys current ICT situation, so as to be aware of which areas are lagging behind in the adaptation of the technology. The companys current situation is obtained through the use of the IT audit tool presented by CIC. The tool divided the organizational processes into nine sections, representing the areas of gaining, doing and supporting work. It also used a Likert scale that ranks the firms implementation of ICT on a scale of 0 5, where a score of 0 indicates complete non-use of ICT and a score of 5 indicates extensive use.
3.2 Determine Required Improvements The IT audit tool also determines the required improvements needed by the organization in order to change the level of ICT applications in a certain area to a higher more advanced one.
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Based on the information about the organizations current situation performed in the previous procedure, the required steps for improvement can be determined using the IT audit tool.
3.3 Prioritize ICT Applications The organization will not be able to adopt all the ICT applications determined in the previous step, so applications need to be prioritized. The prioritization and selection process consists of three steps: financial evaluation of applications, measuring benefits and risks, and prioritization and selection of the appropriate ICT Applications.
Figure 1: Process for Managing ICT Applications in Construction Firms
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A. Financial Evaluation of Applications Total implementation costs are the summation of purchasing costs (P) and annual operating costs (A) calculated using tables illustrated by Parker and Benson (1988), and using the following equation: Total Implementation Cost = P + A
(1 + i )n 1 i (1 + i )n
Eqn. 1
Where n is the number of years the ICT application is implemented and i is the interest rate, cost of capital, or minimum attractive rate of return that should be assigned by the organization (Degarmo et.al. 1997).
B. Measuring ICT Benefits and Risks
The financial returns/benefits of ICT applications are usually not tangible, and thus the benefits of ICT applications are used to assess intangible factors. An enhanced framework from that proposed by Stewart and Mohamed (2002) was developed. The enhancements are in the criteria, weights and scoring system which differ from the original framework. The technique used in such framework is the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The AHP was first developed by Thomas Saaty in the 1970s. This approach facilitates the decision making activity regardless of its degree of complexity. The approach starts with the definition of a major problem, which is then divided into a number of sub-problems. These latter are broken down into more detailed criteria, and so on. This is done in the form of a hierarchy, starting with an unstructured problem directed down to detailed criteria whose weights determine the evaluation of the problem. Each criterion is assigned a weight reflecting its importance relevant to the other criteria, noting that the sum of weights of criteria under a certain topic must be equal to one or 100%. In order to measure the benefits and risks of each application, three groups of information should be present. Firstly, there should exist criteria by which ICT applications are selected. Secondly, comparison between criteria reflecting the importance of each criterion compared to the others is to be found. This comparison is the weights given to criteria. For example, is the criterion strategic match more important for the organization than the criterion competitive advantage, and if so, then by how much? Thirdly, each application is given a score which reflects how much this application fulfills each criterion. For example, if ICT application (x) is to be implemented, will it give the organization any competitive advantage, if so, then by what degree? Criteria and weights will be determined and assigned by experts. The Delphi method and the AHP are the methods used to perform such a study. i. Selection of Criteria: Banuelas et al (2006), Gindy et al (2006), and Kulak et al (2005) all discuss criteria based on which projects are selected. All these criteria were summed up by Steward and Mohamed (2002) and Parker and Benson (1988). It can be concluded that the Parker and
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Benson (1988) criteria represent the guiding and overall criteria for ICT project selection, which were evaluated using the Delphi method (Bassioni, Abdel-Razek, & Tahseen, 2010). These criteria are: return on investment, strategic match, competitive advantage, management information, competitive response, strategic information system architecture, organizational risk, definitional uncertainty, technical uncertainty, and information system infrastructure risk. An analytic hierarchy process for measuring ICT applications benefits and risks was established based on these criteria, as shown in Figure 2 and briefly explained below. Strategic Match criterion means the degree to which the ICT fulfills the strategic goals of the organization. Competitive advantage criterion represents the business main strategy, cost leadership, differentiation or focus. Management information criteria measures the degree by which management information and systems add to the organization strategy. The competitive response criterion reflects how the project postponement or avoidance would cause competitive problems or damage to the organization. For each organization there should exist an information systems strategy, showing the development in technology and prioritizing the various applications. According to this plan projects are to be evaluated; this is presented in the strategic information system architecture criterion. The organizational risk criterion represents the ability of the organization to face changes resulting from the project implementation; this includes the management ability to withstand changes and the ripeness or knowledge in using computers in the organization. The definitional uncertainty criterion measures the degree to which requirements and specification are known, the complexity of the application and the probability of non-routine changes. The technical uncertainty criterion measures the ability of the present technology to perform the project, the presence of available skills, software and hardware. The last criterion is the information system infrastructure risk, which determines the degree of non-project investments required for the implementation of this particular project; examples may be the need for new forms of communications, data access or data dictionary (Parker & Benson, 1988). The first six criteria have a positive effect on the organization; they reflect benefits gained by the organization from implementing a certain project. The last four criteria are negative, reducing the willingness to take over the project, as they represent risks which would be faced by the organization during its implementation. ii. Determination of Criteria Weights and Application Scores: The Delphi method and AHP were used for the determination of criteria and weights (Bassioni, Abdel-Razek, & Tahseen, 2010). A score is a value assigned to each alternative, reflecting to what extent this ICT application fulfills the criterion; that is why scores vary from one application to the other. Parker and Benson (1988) give a scale for scoring each of the ten criteria used to evaluate project selection. The weights obtained for each criterion are shown in Figure 2 (Bassioni, Abdel-Razek, & Tahseen, 2010).
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Level 1
Level
Level
0.08 0.07
0.11
0.09
0.11
0.08
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.11
Figure 2: Measuring ICT Applications Benefits and Risks using AHP Weights
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C. Prioritization of Applications
Finally, once criteria have been defined, weights estimated and scores assigned, there remains the part of prioritizing applications by determining which application has the highest score, i.e. greatest benefits and least risks. The Project Evaluation Technique entitled Evaluation Matrix is used. This technique known in decision making and utilized in value engineering (Dell'Isola A. , 1997). In order to rank ICT applications, first, for each application the weighted score (weight x score for each application) of each criterion is obtained, as was discussed in the previous paragraph. The summation of the weighted scores ( [weight x score]) will result in the overall score or application utility value. Applications are ranked based on each utility value, where the highest utility value represents the most appropriate application; i.e., ranking will be from higher to lower values. As an example in such field the case study prioritization results are shown in Table 1.
Criterion Weight Score Alternative (1) Weighted score = weight x score Score Alternative (2) Weighted score = weight x score Score Alternative (4) Weighted score = weight x score Score Alternative (5) Weighted score = weight x score A 0 B 4 C 0.11 3 D 0.09 5 E 0.11 5 F 0.08 2 G 0.12 0 H 0.11 0 I 0.11 0 J 0.11 0 1.77 0 0.28 0.33 0.45 0.55 0.16 0 0 0 0 2 Total Rank
0.08 0.07
0 1.77 2
0.28
0.33
0.45
0.55
0.16
0 1.84 1
0.35
0.33
0.45
0.55
0.16
0 1.77 2
0.28
0.33
0.45
0.55
0.16
Table 1: Illustrative Example for Prioritizing Applications According to Selection Criteria
3.4 Select Appropriate ICT Applications
The selection of the applications that are to be applied in this final step will be according to the project selection methodology for independent projects (Degarmo, Sullivan, Bontadelli, & Wicks, 1997). The cost of each application in the previous step is given, and their rank or prioritization is also known. Accordingly, the costs of applications having the highest rank will
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be added till reaching the budget specified by the company. If the financial returns are tangibly calculated, the return on investment method can be used (Parker & Benson, 1988), whereas, the total implementation costs are compared to assigned budget available for investing in ICT applications. Those ICT applications whose total implementations costs exceed the budget defined are then neglected. For these selected applications the financial feasibility of the applications are determined by using the simple return on investment method dividing the average annual net income of the project by the internal investment in the project; refer to Parker and Benson (1988).
4. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Since most ICT applications do not have a direct return on the organization and returns are usually intangible, in addition to the high cost of implementing some applications, indirect benefits must be put into consideration. The main outcome of this paper is the introduction of a suggested framework that can be used to manage ICT applications in a more effective and efficient manner. It can also be used for guidance to companies in measuring the benefits and risks of ICT applications. This is particularly useful since the cost of implementing some applications appears to be overly high, until account is taken of the indirect and intangible benefits which are incorporated into the selection process outlined in this framework. Furthermore, suggestions for improvement to the IT Audit Tool are discussed. An overall framework for managing ICT applications in terms of evaluating the current ICT capabilities and requirements is presented in terms of the IT-Audit Tool, and evaluating and selecting evaluation criteria using the Delphi Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process, and prioritizing applications using an Evaluation Matrix, and finally using project selection methodology to select the most appropriate applications. The criteria used in the framework are based on relevant literature and confirmed and evaluated by experts. These criteria and their relative importance might differ from one firm to another depending on the firms infrastructure and levels of expertise. However, the criteria and their relative importance can be assessed to reflect their appropriateness in different contexts without invalidating the framework. This makes the framework practical and flexible to suit different firms.Some limitations need to be addressed, even before it implementation. For example, among the criteria for evaluating ICT applications is that an ICT plan organizational plan exists and strategic match is assessed, which might not be the case in some organizations. Determining criteria weights is a subjective activity; experts have differing opinions, so these weights would differ from one company to the other as they are dependent on top management perspectives. This framework presents an overall approach to construction organizations to follow, yet it requires to be applied in order to evaluate its applicability, which is an area for further research.
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REFERENCES
Akinci, B., Kiziltas, S., Ergen, E., Karaesmen, I., & Keceli, F. (2006). Modeling and Analyzing the Impact of Technology on Data Capture and Transfer Processes at Construction Sites: A Case Study. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 11481157. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Professional REP letters. (n.d.). Retrieved January 15, 2007 Bassioni, H., Abdel-Razek, R., & Tahseen, M. (2010). Using the Delphi Method in Evaluating Critieria of ICT Project Selection. Third International World of Construction Project Management Conference, 2022 October, (pp. 5562). Coventry. Brandon, P., Li, H., & Shen, Q. (2005). Construction IT and the tipping point14. Automation in Construction Journal, 281 286. Cordella, A. (2006). Transaction Costs and Information Systems: Does IT Add Up? Journal of Information Technology, 195202. Degarmo, E., Sullivan, W., Bontadelli, J., & Wicks, E. (1997). Engineering Economy. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall. Dell'Isola, A. (1997). Value Engineeing: Practical Applications. Kingston, USA: RS Means. Dell'Isola, A. (1997). Value Engineering: Practical Applications. Kingston: RSMeans. El-Mashaleh, M., OBrien, W., & Minchin, E. (2006). Firm Performance and Information Technology Utilization in the Construction Industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 499507. Gyampoh, R., & Moreton, R. (2003). Implementing information management in construction: establishing problems, concepts and practices. Construction innovation, 15773. Information Technology Construction Best Practice. (2008). Retrieved from Making IT work for your business, An Executive Summary: http://www.Construct-it.org.uk/, Accessed May 2008. Marsh, L., & Flanagan, R. (2000). Measuring the Costs and Benefits of Information Technology in Construction. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management Journal, 423435. Parker, M., & Benson, R. (1988). Information Economics: Linking Business Performance to Information Technology. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall. Shash, A., & Al-Amir, M. (1997). Information technology in contractors' firms in Saudi Arabia. Construction management and economics, 187200. South Dakota Educational Technology Standards Glossary. (2010). Retrieved November 20, 2009, from http://doe.sd.gov/contentstandards/nclb/documents/Glossary_000.doc. Accessed Feb 2010. Vidogah, R. G., & Moreton, R. (2003). Implementing information management in construction: Establishing problems, concepts and practice. Construction Innovation Journal, 157173.
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IFC-CBR BASED COST MODEL FRAMEWORK DEVELOPMENT

Joseph Ahn Seoul National Univ., Seoul, South Korea, josephahn@snu.ac.kr Hyun-Soo Lee Seoul National Univ., Seoul, South Korea, hyunslee@snu.ac.kr Moonseo Park Seoul National Univ., Seoul, South Korea, mspark@snu.ac.kr Bo-Sik Son Namseoul Univ., Cheonan, South Korea, bsson@nsu.ac.kr Minhyuk Jung Seoul National Univ., Seoul, South Korea, minstrl@gmail.com
Abstract IFC standard is a vast and complex specification; and it has been continuously developed to achieve reliability and credibility of it. Apart from examining the level of compatibility and interoperability, many researches on utilization of IFC standard in construction management, especially in cost estimating, have been continuously conducted. As an extension to the previous cost estimation researches applying IFC, this research aims to propose IFC-CBR (case-based reasoning) based cost model framework. It is important to take a concept of the IFC as a standardized database and further shift to utilization of an IFC database in construction management sector. This paper assumes that IFC files which contain project information will be increased and accumulated in future. IFC based quantity takeoff information model which can produce quantities according to each building element, space and work trade is explained. Then, CBR method, CBR application on IFC as a database and IFC-CBR based cost model framework are explored, respectively. In overall, it is expected that CBR can be the useful medium to deal with a large amount of standardized building information in AEC/FM industry. Keywords: BIM, CBR, cost estimating, IFC, quantity takeoff
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1. INTRODUCTION
AEC/FM industry is very unique where various stakeholders such as owner, architect, contractors, and engineers are involved and exchange their specific information during the building life cycle to achieve successful completion of a project. Building Information Modeling (BIM) has been actively introduced to building construction projects as it is designed to facilitate sharing information between project participants and support numerous complex decision-makings (Hardin 2009). To carry out a project throughout the lifecycle, various participants utilize many kinds of BIM support applications to achieve allocated responsibilities; however, an interoperability issue has arisen among BIM applications. To deal with this challenging issue, buildingSMART International previously known as International Alliance for Interoperability (IAI) published IFC (Industry Foundation Classes), which can be utilized as an open, neutral and standardized specification for BIM data exchange in AEC/FM industry. IFC standard is a vast and complex specification; and it has been continuously developed to achieve reliability and credibility of it. Apart from examining the level of compatibility and interoperability, many researches on utilization of IFC standard in construction management, especially in cost estimating, have been continuously conducted (Hietanen 1999; Fu et al. 2004; Hwang 2004; Tanyer and Aouad 2004; Zhiliang et al. 2011). As an extension to the previous cost estimation researches applying IFC, this research aims to propose IFC-CBR (case-based reasoning) based cost model framework. A primary concept of the study is taking a perspective of IFC file as a database and making an assumption that IFC files which contain project information will be increased and accumulated. By adopting CBR method, this research suggests how IFC can be utilized in the construction management sector. The organization of this paper is as follows. Firstly, preliminary research on IFC and literature reviews is conducted. The next section suggests IFC based quantity takeoff information model which can produce quantities according to each building element, space and work trade. Then, CBR method, CBR Application on IFC as Database and IFC-CBR based cost model framework are explained, respectively.
2. PRELIMINARY RESEARCH
2.1. IFC brief IFC is an open, neutral and standardized specification for BIM data to facilitate interoperability in AEC/FM industry. IFC is exchanged and shared among the various participants such as an owner, architect, contractors, CMr, engineers using various BIM applications in a project throughout its lifecycle. IFC has been continuously developed and improved since IFC 1.0 in 1997 to achieve total interoperability among the BIM software. Current release is IFC 2x4 RC3 as of October 2011 and IFC 2x4 release is submitted and in the
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process of becoming an official international standard ISO 16739. It is expected that the reliability and credibility of IFC standard will be secured once it is accepted as a formal ISO standard (buildingSMART International 2012).
2.2. IFC Structure According to IFC model implementation guide (Liebich 2009), IFC consists of four different layers, which are domain, shared element, core and resource, in intention to attain flexibility and extendibility of them. Each layer comprises set of schemas, which are a collection of entities, classes, attributes, and relationships among entities. These schemas delineate the patterns that sets of entities and relationships characterize. There are total 164 schemas represented by EXPRESS-G diagrams (30 Core data schemas, 12 Shared element data schemas, 22 Domain specific data schemas, 100 resource definition data schema) and 775 entities in IFC 2x4 RC3 version. It is important to note that IFC schemas follow a rule called a ladder principle. A class may reference any classes only at the same or lower layer not from a higher layer. Furthermore, references within the same layer are only allowed in the core and resource layers. Although IFC specification is very systematic and hierarchical, there are 8 different domains (Architecture, Building Controls, Construction Management, Electrical, HVAC, Plumbing Fire Protection, Structural Analysis, and Structural Elements) and 775 different entities. Therefore, it is apparently difficult to utilize all of them; accordingly various project data models or building information models satisfying certain purposes need to be built (Zhiliang et al. 2011).
2.3. Literature Review Zhiliang et al. (2011) explored the possibilities and methods of applying IFC standard to construction cost estimating for tendering in China. This research explained seven aspects of required information entities in detail and examined the completeness of IFC standard. Also, the study suggested some extensions of IFC standard to satisfy Chinese standard for construction cost estimating for tendering. Hwang (2004) conducted a pilot research to verify the capabilities of IFC model for automatic quantity takeoff from 2D drawings. This research developed a system which can browse and provide quantity information of building elements within spatial hierarchy. The author validated quantity can be automatically extracted and stored in Relational database (RDB). Hietanen (1999) delineated how and to what level IFC model can support quantity takeoff to help applying it in different construction culture. Tanyer and Aouad (2004) conducted background research in 4D tools and presented the development and implementation of a new 4D tool, which is a IFC model. Especially, this paper took a perspective of an IFC model as a project database. They further performed 4D simulation and cost estimation together to achieve what-if analysis in construction project. Won and Lee (2011) proposed algorithms which can extract only necessary information
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required by each project participants. The extraction algorithms can contribute to the increase of the productivity in project information exchange and reduce the size of IFC files. Lee (2009) suggested a method of extracting minimum valid subsets from the IFC schema matching the concepts. An et al. (2007) proposed a case-based reasoning cost-estimating model and attempted to include experience using an analytic hierarchy process. Dogan et al. (2006) introduced a spreadsheet-based CBR prediction model of structural systems and assessed its performance by testing the impact of attribute weights generated by three different techniques, namely, feature counting, gradient descent, and genetic algorithm. Ji et al. (2011a) developed a military facility cost estimation system using CBR method. This research validated estimation accuracy and user-friendliness. The study presented a CBR application example of construction cost estimation. Furthermore, apart from CBR application in cost estimation, CBR has been utilized in many areas such as international market selection, decision-making support, planning/scheduling, safety hazard identification, and predicting litigation outcomes (Ji et al. 2012)
3. IFC MODEL ANALYSIS

This section basically aims to suggest IFC based quantity takeoff information model which can produce quantities according to each building element, space and work trade. In the IFC standard, spatial structure is well defined and can be explained as breakdown of the project model into controllable subsets according to spatial arrangements (Liebich 2009). To put it concretely, IfcSpatialStructureElement entity comprises IfcProject, IfcSite, IfcBuilding, IfcStorey and IfcSpace. As these spatial structures are commonly used in most building industry across nations, it can be regarded as primary structure which lies in an interoperability issue and data exchange. Each spatial instance is liked to other spatial instances in one to many relationships by IfcRelAggregates and establishes a hierarchical structure. Within these spatial structures, building elements are constructed; and IFC standard allows for the building elements to be included in the spatial entity by IfcRelContainedInSpatialStructure. There are 17 building elements specified in the IFC specification. In terms of quantity takeoff, there are three different methods of providing quantity information to building elements in the IFC standard (Hietanen 1999; Hwang 2004). 1) Quantities derived from the object geometry 2) IfcElementQuantity entity which contains quantity information in itself 3) The number of instances of a certain type such as IfcDoor and IfcWindow. Rather than selecting one method of them, a flexible use of combination methods is preferable. Furthermore, in order to have quantity information according to work trade or work schedule, IfcWorkControl, IfcWorkPlan, IfcWorkSchedule and IfcTask entities need to be utilized. The overall quantity takeoff information model for each building element, space and work trade is illustrated in Fig. 1. Detailed explanation of related schemas, entities, instances, reference classes, etc is not described and out of the scope of this paper.
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Figure 1: QTO information model according to building elements, space and work trade
4. IFC-CBR based COST MODEL FRAMEWORK

4.1. Case Based Reasoning (CBR) CBR method, derived from cognitive science, has been increasingly applied to cost estimating. This method utilizes the experience of past cases to work out new ones (Schirmer 2000) and can support various decisions (Pal and Shiu 2004). It also helps improve the accuracy of the cost estimation of building projects and provides solutions for estimating construction cost using numerous parameters that have a non-linear relationship with cost (Chou 2009). However, computing similarity required during the retrieval process still remains a challenging issue (Pal and Shiu 2004), and assigning the attribute weight values necessary to search the most similar case needs further examination (Ji et al. 2011a). Furthermore, Watson (1997) asserted the usefulness of CBR with complicated, structured symbolic data rather than purely numeric data.
4.2. CBR Application on IFC as Database It is important to recognize that project information and bills of quantities have been generally in the form of documentation in construction industry. Here an issue arises with regard to traditional CBR application for cost estimation. That is, 1) items of BOQ and project information format are different across companies and countries. 2) Data collection is very difficult as construction companies keep cost data secret for security reasons; furthermore,
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3) data analysis and parameter extraction to build database appropriate for CBR utilization require much effort and time. As IFC is expected to continue to develop and be widely used to deal with the interoperability issue and data exchange, it is necessary to take the concept of the IFC as standardized database and further shift to utilization of IFC database in construction management sector. Figure 2 illustrates an example of the utilization of IFC as a database.
Figure 2: Utilization of IFC Database
4.3. IFC-CBR based Cost Model Framework In this section, a framework of the IFC-CBR based cost model is explained in overall. Firstly, IFC files are extracted from BIM models and stored in IFC DB as raw data. Generally, the size of completed BIM models are large; hence, storing in an IFC format rather a BIM model itself can be an efficient way of managing building project information unless in situation where visualization is especially emphasized or required. Secondly, to maximize IFC data utilization from IFC DB, various IFC information models such as a project general information model, a quantity take off model according to building elements, space and work trades, an energy performance analysis model , a safety analysis model, etc need to be established. It is important to perceive that certain information is required in certain time by certain project participants. Having this primary understanding in mind, carefully designed IFC information modeling can be achieved. Furthermore, once these models are clearly identified and validated, they can be a base for a BIM modeling guideline indicating what kinds of information is required to input to achieve certain purposes throughout a building lifecycle. Thirdly, CBR method is applied in two alternative ways to estimate cost. 1) Required cost or project information is searched, retrieved and accumulated in RDB (Relational Database).
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Then CBR is applied based on RDB. 2) Only necessary information from IFC models is searched, retrieved and straightly used to estimate cost of a project. The IFC-CBR based cost model framework is illustrated in Figure 3.
Figure 3: IFC-CBR based Cost Model Framework
5. CONCLUSION
This research proposed an IFC-CBR based cost model framework. Related preliminary research was conducted and IFC standard was analyzed. The IFC based quantity takeoff information model that can derive quantities according to each building element, space and work trade was explained. The proposed QTO model can be utilized in both design development and construction phases. Especially, quantity information according to work trade can be further utilized for progress payment management in construction phase. IFC model analysis need to be further carried out in more detail; and it is necessary to develop various IFC information models required in the construction management sector. Also, since this research proposed the IFC-CBR based cost model framework only, validation and realization of the model should be executed. Search and retrieve algorithms from IFC files and a carefully designed system prototype need to be further developed. It is expected that CBR can be the useful medium to deal with a large amount of standardized building information and it can be applied to not only cost estimating, but also other areas such as feasibility study, energy analysis, planning/scheduling, safety prevention, contracts, etc.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This research was supported by a grant (code # 09 R&D A01) from Super-Tall Building R&D Project funded by the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs of Korean government.
REFERENCES
An, S-H. et al., 2007. A Case-based Reasoning Cost-estimating Model Using Experience by Analytic Hierarchy Process. Building and Environment, Vol. 42, No. 7., pp. 25732579. buildingSMART International. IFC Roadmap Summary [cited 2012 April 27]. Available from: <http://buildingsmarttech.org/future-extensions/ifc-roadmap/summary> Chou, J. S., 2009. Web-based CBR System Applied to Early Cost Budgeting for Pavement Maintenance Project. Expert System with Applications, Vol. 36, No. 2., pp. 29472960. Dogan, S. Z. et al., 2006. Determining Attribute Weights in a CBR Model for Early Cost Prediction of Structural System. Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Vol. 132, No. 10., pp. 10921098. Fu, C. et al., 2004. IFC Implementation in Lifecycle Costing, Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology, Vol. 11, No. 4., pp. 437441. Hardin, B., 2009. BIM and Construction Management, Wiley Publishing, Indianapolis. Hietanen, J., 1999. Quantity Takeoff using IFC R2.0 Draft 1. Hwang, Y. S., 2004. Automatic Quantity Takeoff from Drawing through IFC Model. Architectural Institute of Korea, Vol. 20, No. 12., pp. 8997. Ji, S. H. et al., 2011a. Military Facility Cost Estimation System Using Case-Based Reasoning in Korea. Computing in Civil Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 25, No. 3., pp. 218231. Ji, S. H. et al., 2011b. Cost Estimation Model for Building Projects using Case-Based Reasoning. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol. 38, No. 5., pp. 570581. Ji, S. H. et al., 2012. Case Adaptation Method of Case-Based Reasoning for Construction Cost Estimation in Korea. Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Vol. 138, No. 1., pp. 4352. Lee, G., 2009. Concept-Based Method for Extracting Valid Subsets from an EXPRESS Schema. Computing in Civil Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 23, No. 2., pp. 128135. Liebich, T., 2009. IFC 2x Edition 3 Model Implementation Guide version 2.0. buildingSMART International. Available from: <http://buildingsmart-tech.org/downloads/accompanying-documents/guidelines> Pal, S. K. and Shiu, S. C. K., 2004. Foundations of Soft Case-Based Reasoning, Wiley Interscience. Schuette, S. D. and Liska, R. W., 1994. Building Construction Estimating, McGraw-Hill, New York. Tanyer, A. M. and Aouad, G., 2005. Moving Beyond the Fourth Dimension with an IFC-based Single Project Database. Automation in Construction, Vol. 14, No. 1., pp. 1532. Watson, I., 1997. Applying Case-Based Reasoning: Techniques for Enterprise System, Morgan Kaufmann Publishers. Won, J. S. and Lee, G., 2011. Algorithm for Efficiently Extracting IFC Building Elements from an IFC Building Model. Proceedings of the 2011 ASCE International Workshop on Computing in Civil Engineering. Zhiliang, Ma. et al., 2011. Application and Extension of the IFC Standard in Construction Cost Estimating for Tendering in China. Automation in Construction, Vol. 20, No. 2., pp. 196204.
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EVALUATION OF SAUDI PUBLIC WORKS CONTRACT

Ibrahim Al-Hammad, Ph D Faculty of Civil Engineering,College of Engineering, King Saud University, P.O.Box 800 Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia, Email: alhammad@ksu.edu.sa
Abstract In the last few years, with souring Oil prices, Saudi Arabia has re-engaged in mega construction projects which are mainly institutional infrastructure in nature. Those public projects are subject to Saudi Procurement Regulations (2007) and governed by the outdated Saudi Public Works Contract (1985). The consequence of continued use of old existing model construction contract, has led to delays, cost over runs, and more disputes. Improving the performance of public projects in Saudi Arabia can be achieved by revising and updating the public works contract in bar with international standard contracts and practices. A step in this direction, this paper aims to review and contrast the Saudi Public Works Model Contract vis-a-vise accepted international construction model contract of FIDIC. The FIDIC Red Book is used as a base for comparing it with the Saudi public work contract. This decision is made as most of the Saudi public works projects are of the type low bid lump sum contracts. By carrying out comparison of the two model contracts, some provisions of the Saudi public work contract needed to be redrafted, or deleted, or added in a harmony with the culture of work and international practices. A new proposed Construction Model Contract has been created and presented in a public workshops for commentary and feedback from various parties including public agencies engineers, consulting firms, contractors, and academics. Highlighting such shortcomings of the Saudi Public Works Contract should pave the way for re-drafting it to bring up to accepted international practices, minimize litigation, and improve contract administration efficiency. Keywords: Saudi Arabia, Engineering Contracts, National Public Work Contracts, FIDIC, Procurement
1. INTRODUCTION
In the last few years, with souring Oil prices, Saudi Arabia has re-engaged in mega construction projects which are mainly institutional infrastructure in nature. Those public projects are subject to Saudi Procurement Regulations (1976) and governed by the outdated Saudi Public Works Contract (1985). The consequence of continued use of old existing model construction contract, has led to delays, cost over runs, and more disputes.
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Improving the performance of public projects in Saudi Arabia can be achieved by revising and updating the public works contract in bar with international standard contracts and practices. A step in this direction, this paper aims to partly review and contrast the Saudi Public Works Model Contract vis-a-vise FIDIC Model Contracts. This decision is made as most of the public works projects are of the type low bid lump sum contracts (with Measurement). By carrying out comparison of the two model contracts, some provisions of the Saudi public work contract needed to be redrafted, or deleted, or added in a harmony with the culture of work and international practices. The contribution of this research will contribute to the purpose of a revised Construction Model Contract. Highlighting such shortcomings of the Saudi Public Works Contract should pave the way for re-drafting it to bring up to accepted international practices, minimize litigation, and improve the efficiency of contract administration.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
In an expanded study for reviewing the existing model public works contract of Saudi Arabia, the author (Al- Hammad et al. 2008) stressed the importance of reviewing the public works contract for suggesting a balanced formulation of construction contract to be used in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for developing its construction industry. A literature survey has been made for research covering the different types of model construction contracts especially in industrial countries. There are numerous international model construction contracts which the author categorize per country and institute as follows: 1. 2. 3. UK: JCT, ICE, NEC, Government GC/Works/10 (2000), US: AIA, AGC, EJECT, and FIDIC.
With the exception of the latter FIDIC (issued by the International Federation of Consulting Engineers", these contracts are affected by each country legal system and culture of work. All of the above cited model contracts have their own websites which are accessible using their acronym. Each website describes briefly all their model construction contracts, training courses, events, and material order.
3. CHOOSING FIDIC CONTRACT FOR COMPARSION

Extensive literature survey was carried out as mentioned in the previous section. While many international model construction contracts have similarity; yet, they have settle differences reflecting the law and culture of the construction project location and place. It is well known that FIDIC Construction Model Contracts are more commonly used and adapted in the
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Middle East and Asia. Earlier versions of FIDIC contracts were made modular and flexible to add, revise, and delete provisions; and additionally, they are not tied to a complex system of law as in the UK or US or any other developed/Industrialized country. Many non-developed national model contracts were based on FIDIC earlier version of the sixties and seventies and eighties of the last century with some adaptation and interplay with their national laws. FIDIC model contracts have been further revised to cope with contemporary and new practices along all past years, while most of the non-developed countries did not do so. This is due to the buruecartic system and slow process of promulgation of laws. For the previous causes, it is imperative that FIDIC construction model contracts are selected to bench mark the Saudi Public Works Contracts.
4. SELECTED COMPARSION
It may be difficult for a researcher to be acquainted with all aspects comparison between the Saudi Public Works Contract and FIDIC (1977). For historical reasons, and due to its continuing wider use, FIDIC 4th Version of the "Conditions of Contract for Works of Civil Engineering Construction"; is chosen for this research paper. From the outset overview of the two contracts, the researcher found that there are differences in the general frame of constructing and influencing the contract formulation and implementation. Table 1 provides a partial comparison between the two types. First observation, we see the Saudi Contract last issuance date is 1986 while FIDIC last issue is at 1999 with a gap of 13 years!. Second, there are several form of FIDIC such Red Book, Yellow Book, Sliver Book, Golden Book suiting the project conditions when and if the Design is performed by the Owner or Contractor, Design Build, Long lead projects. The Saudi Model Contract is of the type of Lump Sum and close to the Red Book in many clauses. Third, there are some provisions in FIDIC that will be contravened or superseded by the Saudi National Procurement Law such time extension, payment, and arbitration. Fourth, FIDIC is continuesly updated with Amendment while the Saudi counterpart is amended by Royal Ordinances that suits the present local economic conditions. Fifth, FIDIC provisions have been explained how and why they are drafted in numerous guidance and commentaries, while the Saudi version has neither preface alluding to the basis of its formulation nor an explanation on how it has been drafted. For instance, for interpreting some of the Saudi Contract provisions, one refers to a catalogue of official generalizations for answering questions and inquiries from different governmental bodies.
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Comparison Aspect 1 2 Last Issue Date Contracts Forms
FIDIC General Conditions for Civil Engineering Construction 1999G Several Forms according to the project type Arbitration Provision Time Extension Delay Damages Payment New Practices
Saudi Unified Contract for Public Works 1986G One Form
Contested 3 Provisions
National Laws supersede Arbitration Clause
Basis of Contract Modification Guidance for the Model Contract
Promulgations Conferences Workshops Commentary on General Conditions of the Contract
Official Question and Answer Catalogue
Table 1: Selected Comparison between FIDIC General Conditions for Civil Engineering Construction vs. Saudi Unified Contract for Public Works
5. CONCLUSION
The aforementioned comparison of FIDIC vis-a-vise Saudi Unified Public Works Contract showed how much the latter is lagging behind international practice. Saudi Arabian construction market nowadays is one of the largest in the World, and with using its outdated Public Works Contract, led to many projects failures and delays. This research provided a small prototype method of how to update the Saudi Public Works Contract while a larger scope is required to do a more comperhensive redrafting. A more modernized Saudi Public Works Contract will improve the performance of the construction industry and minimize the economic loss of using the current version.
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REFERENCES
Al Jazierrah Daily Newspaper (9/02/2008), Discussion of the Saudi Model Public Works Contract with Prof. Ibrahim Alhammad, Economy Section, Issue No. 12917, pp. 28. Federation International Des Ingenieurs-Conseils. 1977. Conditions of Contract for Works of Civil Engineering Construction, 4th Ed. International Federation of Consulting Engineers, www.fidic.org. Model Public Works Contract. (1985). Ministerial Council Resolution No 136 dated 13/06/1408 Higra. Saudi Public Procurement Regulations. (1976). Royal Decree No 58 dated 4/09/1976.
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COLD ROLLED ASPHALT SURFACE COURSE CONTAINING WASTE MATERIALS

Abbas Al-Hdabi Postgraduate Student, School of Built Environment, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK, A.T.Al-Hdabi@2011.ljmu.ac.uk Hassan Al Nageim Professor of Structural Engineering, Director of studies, School of Built Environment, Liverpool John Moores University Liverpool, UK, H.K.Alnageim@ljmu.ac.uk Felicite Ruddock Senior Lecturer, School of Built Environment, Liverpool John Moores University Liverpool, UK, Ruddock, F.M.Ruddock@ljmu.ac.uk Dr Linda Seton Lecturer, School of Pharmacy and Bimolecular Science, Liverpool John Moores University Liverpool, UK, Seton, L.Seton@ljmu.ac.uk
Abstract Reduction of Hot Asphalt Mixtures for the usage and development of sustainable supplementary Cold Asphalt Mixtures (CAM) for the construction of road and highway surface layers is a hot issue for researchers around the world. This will cover many gains in terms of: environment impact, cost effectiveness and energy saving. Furthermore, because CAM comprises a remarkable portion of industrial waste which is claiming virgin land for its disposal, it is attractive to road and highways authorities. The main aim of this investigation is the development of new Cold Rolled Asphalt (CRA) and improvement of its mechanical properties by using waste materials as mineral filler. The experimental results have shown a significant improvement in the stiffness modulus and creep stiffness with the new filler. Therefore, the new CRA mixture has comparative mechanical properties to that of conventional HRA, and demonstrates the feasibility of the use of CRA in road construction. Keywords: cold rolled asphalt, creep stiffness, indirect tensile stiffness, water sensitivity, waste materials.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Hot Rolled Asphalt (HRA) surface course is a continuous gap graded mixture of coarse aggregate, mineral filler, sand and bitumen. The mechanical properties of the mixture are controlled by the strength properties of the mastic i.e. mineral filler, sand and bitumen. The material is widely used for surfacing major roads in the United Kingdom because it provides a dense, impervious layer resulting in a weather resistant and durable surface able to sustain the demands of todays traffic loads, providing good resistance to fatigue cracking. However it may experience some weakness to deformation resistance (NICHOLLAS, 2004). Additionally, issues like safety and energy saving at work have encouraged efforts to introduce alternative method of using cold mixture technology, in which the production of bituminous mixtures are at ambient temperatures by utilising liquid asphalts (bitumen). Liquid bitumens are achieved by decreasing the straight run bitumen viscosity in several different ways. The bitumen emulsification is one of these methods and the decreasing of viscosity takes place by emulsifying the bitumen in water (THANAYA, 2003). Chevron Research Company in California after many research studies reported that full curing of cold bituminous mixtures on site depending on the weather conditions and curing times may extend from 2 24 months. Unfortunately, UK weather conditions are not assistant to decrease the curing time; humid, cold, and rainy most time of the year (LEECH, 1994). Besides being environmentally more friendly, energy saving, and safer to handle, there are a number of other gains in implementing cold bituminous emulsion mixtures. They are easier to mix and handle, the size and the time for process of installation (or reinstallation) of mixing plant is lesser and shorter respectively compared to a hot mix plant (NIKOLAIDES, 1994). Li et al. (Li, 1998) conducted experiments to assess the mechanical properties of a threephase cement-asphalt emulsion composite (CAEC). Through experimental study, they reported that CAEC possessed most of the characteristics of both cement and asphalt, namely the longer fatigue life and lower temperature susceptibility of cement concrete, and higher toughness and flexibility of asphalt concrete. There are several studies to improve mechanical properties of the cold mixes. Initial study conducted by Head in (1974) reported the results of research on cement modified asphalt cold mixes (HEAD, 1974). He showed that addition of cement had a very significant effect on mix stability; addition of 1% cement produced an increase in stability of 250300% over that of untreated samples. Specimens without cement immersed in water after stability tests disintegrated after 24 h, while cement-treated specimens indicated no deterioration. Pouliot et al. (Pouliot, 2003) aimed at understanding the hydration process, the microstructure, and the mechanical properties of mastics prepared with a new mixed
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binder made of cement slurry and a small quantity of asphalt emulsion (SS-1 and CSS-1). They showed that the cement hydration process was nominally influenced by the presence of a small quantity emulsion. They also indicated that mortars made with the cationic emulsion (CSS-1) revealed higher strengths and elastic modulus than mortars made with anionic emulsion (SS-1). Other study by Wang & Sha (2010) (WANG, 2010) indicated that the rise of cement and mineral filler fineness has a positive impact on micro hardness of the interface of aggregate and cement emulsion mortar. Moreover, they presented that the limestone and limestone filler impact hardness value are highly when compared with granite and granite filler. There are several attempts tried to use of waste and by-product materials to improve cold mixes, where four main benefits can be achieved when utilizing by-product materials on CBEMs. Firstly, improving mechanical properties, in general there will be an enhancement of ultimate strength due to the cementitous properties. Secondly, gaining economic benefit as the pozzolanic and cementitous materials used are mostly industrial by-products. Thirdly, trapped water could be reacted with these materials to complete the hydration process and the result is getting rid of this water which is the main reason of increasing the curing period in CMAs, and lastly, the ecological benefit factor. A research works implemented by Thanaya et al (THANAYA, 2006 ) indicated the suitability of using of Pulverised Fly Ash (PFA) as filler in cold mixes. Also they concluded that the stiffness of cold mix achieved is very comparable to hot mixtures at full curing conditions. It is believed that this study will add new contributions to improve CRA mechanical properties and water sensitivity through replacement of conventional filler by waste materials. The LJMU Filler i.e. LJMUF was used as replacement to conventional filler in the range from 0 to 6% by total weight of aggregate.
2. EXPERIMENTAL PROGRAM
2.1 Materials Properties The coarse and fine aggregate used in this study were crushed granite from Bardon Hill quarry and their physical properties are shown in table (1). Two types of filler were used in this study, traditional mineral filler (limestone dust) and LJMUF (waste material). The aggregate was dried, riffled and bagged with sieve analysis achieved in accordance with BS EN 933-1(BRITISH STANDARD INSTITUTION, 1997).
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Property Coarse aggregate Bulk specific gravity, g/cm3 3 Apparent specific gravity, g/cm Water absorption, % Fine aggregate Bulk specific gravity, g/cm 3 Apparent specific gravity, g/cm Water absorption, % Mineral filler 3 Specific Gravity, g/cm
Table 1: Physical Properties of Aggregates
3
value 2.79 2.83 0.6 2.68 2.72 1.6 2.71
The cationic slow setting bituminous emulsion (K3-60) supplied by Nynas was used to produce the new CRA to improve high adhesion between aggregate particles. In contrast, the 122 pen and 43 pen bitumen grades were used to produce two types of HRA. Table (2) shows the properties of the selected bituminous emulsion and bituminous binder.
2.2 Gradation of CRA and HRA The aggregate gradation of wholly mixtures (CRA and HRA mixtures) used in this study was based on BS EN 13108-4 (BRITISH STANDARD INSTITUTION, 2006) for HRA; 55/14C gap graded surface course mixture gradation has been used in this work. Table (3) shows the selected gradation.
Bitumen emulsion (K3-60) Property Value Black to dark brown liquid 100 C 1.05 64 Bituminous binder (40 60) Property Value Bituminous binder (100150) Property Value
Appearance
Appearance
Black
Appearance
Black
Boiling Point, C Relative Density at 15 C, g/ml Residue by distillation, %
Penetration at 25 C Softening point, C Density at 25C
43 54 1.02
Penetration at 25 C Softening point, C Density at 25C
122 43.6 1.05
Table 2: Bituminous Binder and Bitumen Emulsion Properties
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sieve size, mm % passing (specification range) % by mass (passing mid)
20 100 100
14 98100 99
10 4263 52
6.3 -----
2 40 40
0.5 19 31 25
0.25 931 20
0.063 6 6
Table 3: Aggregate gradation for 55/14C Gap Graded Surface Course (BS EN 13108-4)
2.3 Preparation of CRA and HRA mixtures The design procedure for the new CRA mixtures used in this investigation was based on the method approved by the Asphalt Institute (Marshall Method for Emulsified Asphalt Aggregate Cold Mixture Design (MS-14)) (ASPHALT INSTITUTE, 1989). Firstly, different prewetting water contents (3, 4 and 5% by total weight of aggregate) were inspected to find the lowest percentage to ensure adequate coating. Secondly, the mix density test (dry density results) was used to determine the optimum total liquid content at compaction i.e. emulsion plus pre-wetting water contents which gives the highest mix density. Finally, indirect tensile strength test (soaked indirect tensile strength results) was used to determine the optimum residual bitumen content. According to the selected materials features, pre-wetting water content was observed to be 5%, the optimum total liquid content at compaction was 15.16% and the optimum residual bitumen content was 7% (bitumen emulsion content=10.94%). Different percentages of LJMUF (0, 1.5, 3, 4.5 and 6% by weight of aggregate) as a replacement of conventional mineral filler were used in preparation of the specimens of CRA mixtures. In contrast, conventional HRA mixture samples were prepared with the same aggregate type and gradation, 5.5% optimum binder content was used according to the BS 594987 Annex H (2010) (BRITISH STANDARD INSTITUTION, 2010) for the 55/14C Hot Rolled Asphalt surface course-design mixture. Both cold and hot mixes were prepared to produce three specimens for each specific mix. The cold mix specimens were mixed and compacted at lab temperature (20 C), while hot mix specimens were mixed at (150160 C) and compacted at (135140 C).
2.4 Curing of the CRA samples The conditioning of the CRA specimens is depending on the procedure adopted by the Asphalt Institute MS-14 (ASPHALT INSTITUTE, 1989). The curing process consists of two stages; the first stage was achieved with 24 hours at 20 C as the sample needs to be left in mould before being extruded to prevent specimen disintegration, whereas stage two was achieved with 24 hours at 40 C (the samples have been left in the ventilated oven). After these stages, the samples have been left in the lab (20 C) and tested at different ages i.e. 2, 7, 14 and 28 days to indicate the indirect tensile stiffness modulus. Jerkins (JERKINS, 2000) reported that 24 hour @ 20 C plus 24 hour @ 40 C represents 714 days in the field.
35
3. TESTING
3.1 Indirect Tensile Stiffness Modulus ITSM is a non-destructive test mainly used to evaluate the stiffness modulus of hot mixes. As, bituminous mixtures are significantly sensitive to tensile stress than compressive stresses, thus tensile stiffness are normally investigated. However, indirect tensile stiffness modulus test is utilized to measuring small recoverable strains on bituminous sample and comprises a set of pulse loadings applied on two diametrically opposed generating lines of a cylindrical sample. The test is conducted in accordance with BS EN 12697-26:2004 (BRITISH STANDARD INSTITUTION, 2004), the Cooper Research Technology HYD 25 testing apparatus is used (Figure (1)), and the test conditions are shown in Table (4). The Indirect Tensile Stiffness Modulus has been used in this study as an indicator of the mechanical properties of the CRA incorporated LJMUF as well as the conventional HRA.
Item Specimen diameter mm Width of loading strip, mm Rise time, micro strain Transient peak horizontal deformation, m Load repetition, s Poissons ratio No. Of conditioning pulse No. of test pulse Test temperature C Specimen thickness mm Compaction effort, Marshall Hammer (blows) Specimen temp. conditioning
Figure 1: HYD 25 Indirect Tensile Apparatus
Range 1003 121 1244 52 30.1 0.35 10 5 20 0.5 633 502 4hr before testing
Table 4: ITSM Test Conditions
3.2 Uniaxial compressive cyclic test The Uniaxial Compressive Cyclic Test (UCCT) is a destructive test used mainly to evaluate the permanent deformation characteristics of hot mixes. UCCT at 40 C was used to evaluate the effect of addition LJMUF to CRA on creep stiffness. The test was conducted in accordance with BS EN 12697-25 (BRITISH STANDARD INSTITUTION, 2005), the Cooper Research Technology HYD 25 testing apparatus was used. The test conditions as in Table (5).
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Item Frequency Loads Loading pulse Rest period preloading Poissons ratio No.of test plus Test temperature C Specimen diameter Specimen thickness
Range 0.5 Hz 1002 KPa 10,05 s 10,05 s 10 KPa for 10 min 0.35 for 20 C test tem. 3600 40 0.5 1485 602 mm
Figure 2: Creep test configuration
Table 5: UCCT Conditions
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 ITSM Results The specimens were tested according to BS EN 12697-26:2004 (BRITISH STANDARD INSTITUTION, 2004) at ages 2, 7, 14, and 28 days to identify the effect of replacement of LJMUF to the conventional mineral filler on the hydration mechanism of the mixtures and thus the improvement of the one of the important mechanical property of the mixtures i.e. ITSM, see figures (2) and (3).
Figure 2: Effect of LJMUF percentage on ITSM results
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Figure 3: Effect of curing time and LJMUF percentage on ITSM results
According to the ITSM results shown in figure (2) and (3), three points can be concluded: 1) the ITSM results of the CRA improved considerably when the percentage of replacement of LJMUF to the conventional filler increased; 2) the ITSM increased dramatically for all CRA mixtures with LJMUF with curing time especially for the higher percentages of LJMUF, whereas conventional HRA shows unnoticeable variations in ITSM with time; and 3) the 1941 MPa target ITSM i.e. the stiffness modulus of the 122 pen HRA can be achieved easily after two days for the CRA mixtures with 4.5% and 6% LJMUF and after about 8 days for the mixtures with 3% LJMUF.
4.2 Uniaxial Compressive Cyclic Test Results The results of the uniaxial compressive cyclic tests are given in Figures (57). The creep strain versus number of pulse applications, the ultimate creep stiffness and creep rate of mixtures with different LJMUF are shown in Figure (5), (6) and (7), respectively. Normally, creep stiffness is the applied test stress over the accumulative strain, while creep rate is the rate of increment in strain during the test between 12003600 pluses. These Figures reveal the positive effect of LJMUF on the creep properties of CRA; specimens with higher LJMUF content had significantly longer life under cyclic load creep test when compared to control specimens as well as with HRA Mixtures.
38
Figure 5: Creep strain versus number of pulse applications of specimens with different % of LJMUF
Figure 6: Influence of % LJMUF on ultimate creep stiffness
Figure 7: Effect of % LJMUF on creep rate
39
5. CONCLUSIONS
Replacement of conventional mineral filler in the conventional HMA granular mixture by LJMUF provides a general enhancement to the mechanical properties of the new CRA mixtures to a level that they are comparable with those of hot rolled asphalt mixtures. The main conclusions drawn from this investigation are as follows: 1. The replacement of conventional mineral filler by LJMUF into CRA mixtures improves significantly the ITSM results especially with higher percentages of filler replacement (4.5% and 6%). 2. The target ITSM value (i.e. stiffness modulus of 125 pen HRA) can be easily achieved by using the new CRA with 4.5% and 6% of LJMUF filler, and only after two days of curing. 3. The CRA mixtures with LJMUF filler can provide a stiffness modulus of more than nineteen times that of the control CRA mixtures at a curing time of two days. 4. The addition of LJMUF can also improve the permanent deformation resistance when compared to both control CRA and traditional HRA. The creep stiffness of CRA containing 3% LJMUF improved more than 6 times compared to the control CRA.
REFERENCES
ASPHALT INSTITUTE 1989. Asphalt Cold Mix Manual, manual series No.14 (MS-14). Maryland, USA. BRITISH STANDARD INSTITUTION 1997. BS EN 933-Part 1: Determination of partical size distribution-sieving method-Test for Geometrical Properties of Aggregate. London, UK. BRITISH STANDARD INSTITUTION 2004. BS EN 12697:Part 26.Bitumenous Mixtures-Test Methods for Hot Mix Asphalt- Stiffness. London, UK. BRITISH STANDARD INSTITUTION 2005. Bituminous mixtures Test methods for hot mix asphalt Part 25: Cyclic compression test. London, UK. BRITISH STANDARD INSTITUTION 2006. BS EN 13108: Part 4. Bituminous Mixtures Materials specification-Hot Rolled Asphalt. London, UK. BRITISH STANDARD INSTITUTION 2010. BS 594987: Asphalt for Roads and Other Paved Areas-Spacefication for Transport, Laying, Compaction and Type Testing Protocols. London, UK. HEAD, R. W. An informal report of cold mix research using emulsified asphalt as a binder. Association of Asphalt Paving Technologists Proceeding (AAPT), 1974. JERKINS, K. 2000. Mix design consedration s for cold and half-warm bitumious mixes with emphasis on foamed asphalt. PhD thesis, university of Stellenbosch. LEECH, D. 1994. Cold Bituminous Materials for Use in the Structural layers of Roads. Traspotation Research laboratory, Project Report 75, Uk. LI, G., ZHAO, Y., PANG, S., AND HUANG, W. 1998. Experimental study of Cement-Asphalt Emulsion Composite. Cement Concrete Research, 28 (5).
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary NICHOLLAS, J. C. 2004. Asphalt Surfacings. In: TAYLOR AND FRANCIS E-LIBRARY (ed.). NIKOLAIDES, A. F. Construction and Performance of Dense Cold Bituminous Mixtures as Strengthening Over Layer and Surface Layer. Proceedings of the 1st European Symposium on Performance and Durability of Bituminous Materials, 1994 University of Leeds, London. POULIOT, N., MARCHAND, J. AND PIGEON, M. 2003. Hydration Mechanism, Microstructure, and Mechanical Properties of Mortars Prepared with Mixed Binder Cement Slurry-Asphalt Emulsion. Journal of Material of Civil Engineering, 15 (1). THANAYA, I., FORTH, P. AND ZOOROB, S. Utilisation of Coal Ashes in Hot and on Cold Bituminous Mixtures. International Coal Ash Technology conference, Paper ref. A9, 2006 Birmingham, UK. THANAYA, I. N. A. 2003. Improving the Performance of Cold Bituminous Emulsion Mixtures (CBEMs) Incorporating waste Materials. Ph D Thesis, University of Leeds, UK. WANG, Z. S., A. 2010. Micro hardness of interface between cement asphalt emulsion mastics and aggregates. Journal of Materials and Structures, vol.43, pp.453461.
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RECYCLING OF INDUSTRIAL WASTES TO PRODUCE NEW CEMENT FOR CONSTRUCTION

Hassan Al-Nageim Professor of Structural Engineering, Head of Liverpool Centre for Materials Technology, School of the Built Environment, Liverpool John Moores University, UK., H.K.Alnageim@ljmu.ac.uk Monower Sadique PhD Researcher, School of the Built Environment, Liverpool John Moores University, UK., M.M.Sadique@2009.ljmu.ac.uk; sadiquerhd@hotmail.com
Abstract The objective of this study was to formulate a new cement replacement material without any burning process using fly ashes generated from incineration of domestic and industrial wastes. The strength development characteristics of two types of new ternary blended cementitious materials produced form three different types of fly ashes and silica fume was investigated in this study. The developed blended formulation showed versatility in terms of offering different grade mortar like conventional cement. Though the early strength was slightly lower than the control mortar but after 14 days of curing, the rate of strength development was higher than the control mortar in both types of products. The influence of water content, alkali activation, synthesis by water dispersing agent has also been analysed. The optimised blended mortar containing two different types of fly ashes synthesised with silica fume was reported to shows more compressive strength than the control cement mortar when dispersed with polycarboxylate based super plasticiser (SP) rather than NaOH activation. Key words: binder content, compressive strength, fly ashes, mortar, water/binder ratio.
1. INTRODUCTION
Wide acceptance of any supplementary cementitious material (SCM) is depending on successful symbiotic correlation among economical, technical and environmental benefits. The uses of various types of materials such as blast furnace slag (BFS), silica fume (SF), limestone, pulverised fuel ash etc., as SCM are widely accepted by specifiers. But globally the continuous upward growth trend of cement uses and its associated carbon emission demands more extensive research for replacing cement with SCM in bulk. The proportional reduction of strength of composite cement than that of control with replacement level of cement has been reported in various studies (S.Kenai et al., 2004; R.G. DSouza et al., 2007). At the same time blending cement with optimised amount of SF for producing high strength
42
cement is widely accepted. The versatility in terms of different grade strength mortar or concrete with optimised mix proportion in association with economic or practical consideration will play a vital role in selecting a new cementitious material. B. B. Sabir, 1995 showed that addition of 28% SF with ordinary Portland cement (OPC) is able to generate 60% to 70% more strength than control. This beneficial effect of SF was due to creation of densified matrix in hydrated state for its super fineness and catalytic role in hydration reaction. The mechanical activation of supplementary materials for their higher reactivity is also very well known (P. Stellacci et al., 2009; R. Kumar et al., 2007; Z. Sekulic et al., 1999; S. Rukzon et al., 2009). However in the course of this study, three types of activated fly ashes synthesised with SF has been scheduled to produce two types of cementitious materials for full replacement of OPC. The physical, chemical and mineralogical characterisation as well as optimisation of mix matrix and sensitivity towards water/binder ratio of the developed product has been characterised in this paper for achieving highest strength from these new cementless cementitious materials.
2. MATERIALS
Three types of by product fly ashes FA1, FA2 and FA3; originating from three different industrial sources (incinerated domestic and industrial wastes) has been collected and used for formulation of new products at laboratory scale. The source materials of said fly ashes were different and resulting after combustion between 700C to 1200C in their industrial operation using fluidized bed combustion system. Fluidized beds use calcium hydroxide and activated carbon to capture sulphur and nitric oxide (NOx) released during combustion. The chemical and mineralogical analysis of fly ashes has been illustrated in table 1 and figure 1. Commercially available silica fume and Portland composite cement type CEM-II/A/LL 42.5-N have been used throughout the research. Sand passing through 2 mm sieve was adopted for making mortar sample. Liquid Sodium hydroxide (NaOH) alkali waste generated from acid neutralization plant containing 8% NaOH in water has been collected for using as alkali activator and polycarboxylate based super plasticiser (SP) has been used for higher dispersion of fly ashes and SF.
3. CHARACTERISATION OF MATERIALS
3.1 Method The elemental composition of used materials (major oxides and trace elements) have been determined by Shimadzu EDX 720, energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF) spectrometer and mineralogical characterisation were carried out by x-ray diffraction (XRD) using a Rigaku Miniflex diffractometer (Miniflex gonimeter) with CuK X-ray radiation, voltage 30 kV, and current 15 mA at scanning speed of 2.0deg./min in continuous scan mode. Beckmen coulter laser diffraction particle size analyser has been used for determining the
43
particle size distribution (PSD) of normal and activated fly ash particles in aqueous liquid module (ALM) mode. The external surface area of particles in liquid mode has also been measured in ALM mode and expressed in terms of m2/lit. NOVA 2000 Brunauer, Emmett and Teller (BET) analyser has been used to measure the specific surface area (SSA) of fly ashes. NOVA 2000 uses gas sorption techniques to obtain information about the surface area (external and internal) and density of the materials in dry state. Scan electron microscope (SEM) in association with energy dispersive spectrometer (EDS) has been utilised for microstructural analysis .The aqueous solution of the fly ash or bound material (1 part with 5 part distilled water stirred for 30 minutes) has been used for measuring pH at 20C.
3.2 Physical and chemical properties The chemical composition of individual constituents (FA1, FA2, FA3 and SF) has been tabulated in table 1. All fly ash particles have been mechanically activated by grinding with a mortar and pestle grinder (Low energy intensive agitation, 1 horse power motor with 2.5 litre bowl capacity with 250 gm/batch). The physical modification in terms of specific surface area (SSA), particle size, density for the comminution has been tabulated in table 2. The increase in BET fineness and density for grinding fly ash samples (except FA3) after grinding will provide more exposed surface to participate in to hydration in association with dense interlocking.
pH
CaO
SiO2
Al2O3
MgO
Fe2O3
SO3
Cl
K2 O
TiO2
ZnO
LoI
FA1 FA2 FA3 SF
12.5 12.9 12.4 7.1
57.0 20.5 23.7 0.4
28.0 15.2 28.3 98.5
3.7 3.0 -
3.7 0.7 1.9 -
0.2 0.4 3.0 -
0.35 8.7 -
5.3 -
0.1 22.3 2.8 -
0.5 0.2 4.0 -
1.1 -
10.2 9.1 7.8 2.3
Table 1: Major oxides of undisturbed materials by EDXRF analysis
D50 m OPC FA1 Normal FA1 Ground FA2 Normal FA2 Ground FA3 Normal FA3 Ground 13.3 86.8 3.82 62.8 15.8 40.0 21.6
SSA(External) m2/lit 2973 1438 3608 850 1940 22848 32252
SSA(BET) m2/gm 6.78 2.26 4.41 5.70 8.79 13.35 9.83
Density(BET) gm/cm3 10.20 4.89 5.69 2.93 8.41 3.57 nd
LOI 1.43 10.18 11.27 9.06 11.09 7.87 6.16
Table 2: Changes in physical properties fly ashes after grinding
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Initially for activating FA1 by FA2 or FA3 in binary blends, the optimum mix proportion (based on 28 day mortar compressive strength of binary blend) of FA1:FA2 or FA1:FA3 was identified as 3:1 in both cases. The use of SF as a cement replacement for high strength concrete is widely used. But there is strong disagreement regarding the dosage of SF. Previous study showed the optimum SF replacement should be in the range from 15% to 30% (H. A. Toutanji et al., 1995; V. Yogendran et al., 1987; E. Rasa et al., 2009). Rasa et al. also concluded that the optimum content of silica fume increases with increasing the value of the water-cementitious materials ratio, while the corresponding compressive strength decreases. Based on Rasa et al. study and in order to achieve a hundred per cent cement replacement which is the core objective of this current study, initially 20% SF has been used in the new blends for FA1, FA2 and FA3. Hence the mix proportions (FA1:FA2: SF or FA1:FA3: SF) of the two the new blends entitled in this study as HSC-3 and HSC-4 respectively were selected as 3:1:1. Both blends contain individually mechanically activated fly ashes. The detail compositional matrix of HSC3 and HSC-4 has been tabulated in table 3. The comparative PSD, physical and chemical analysis of the two blends and the reference OPC cement have been shown in figure 1 and table 3. The PSD of HSC-3 is very similar to OPC whereas the HSC-4 shows slightly coarser grain size than OPC. Though both blended products have very analogous chemical composition in terms of major oxides but the disparity in terms of SO3, K2O, Fe2O3 and ZnO contents and fineness will influence the hydration kinetics upon mixing with water among the two blends. The sulphate and chloride content in both blends are within the specified limit mentioned in BS EN 197-1.
Individually mechanically activated FA1 HSC-3 HSC-4 Control 60% 60% FA2 20% FA3 20% SF 20% 20% OPC 100%
Table 3: Constituent matrix of new blended products
Figure 1: PSD of new blended products and control cement
45
OPC pH Na2O CaO SiO2 Al2O3 MgO Fe2O3 SO3 Cl K2O TiO2 ZnO CaO/SiO2 [BS EN requirement>2] SiO2+Al2O3+Fe2O3 Na2O-equ [%] 12.5 1.5 62.58 25.06 2.26 1.59 1.82 1.92 0.75 0.40 0.03 2.49 29.14 2.0
HSC-3 12.80 1.8 45.15 31.19 3.49 2.17 0.44 3.5 0.5 3.71 0.33 0.07 0.87 35.12 4.2
HSC-4 12.62 1.7 42.21 47.85 7.41 2.49 0.89 0.71 0.93 0.25 0.88 56.15 2.1
Table 4: Comparative EDXRF analysis of new dry blended products and cement
Figure 2: XRD powder diffraction pattern of new blended products and OPC[calcite-C, gehlinite-G, lime-L, larniteLa, arcanite-A, pervoskite-P, alite-Al, ferrite-F]
46
The major crystal peaks identified in powder diffraction analysis of HSC-3 and HSC-4 (figure 2) were calcite (CaCO3), gehlinite (CaAl[AlSiO7]), lime (CaO), pervoskite (CaTiO3) and larnite (Ca2SiO4). The presence of arcanite (K2SO4) in HSC-3 is due to the tied up of K2O and SO3 of FA2 and application of FGD gypsum as grinding aid (GA) during comminution of FA1 and FA2 used in this blend.The major peaks identified in control OPC were alite (Ca3SiO5 ), larnite, calcite and ferrite [Ca2(Al,Fe)2O5].
4. SAMPLE PREPARATION
100 mm test specimens have been prepared in Hobart mixer .The samples were demolded after 24 hour and kept in sealed humid environment at 20C for testing at designated period. Control AUTOMAX5 automatic compression tester has been used for determining the strength of mortar cubes at designated time with 0.2MPa/sec loading rate. The average strength value of four specimens prepared for; i) any binder content ii) water content and iii) age were taken for analysis throughout the study.
5. OPTIMIZATION OF BLENDS PARAMETER

Initially mortar specimens using HSC-3 blend (as in table 3) at binder to sand ratio of 1:3 with water/binder (w/b) ratio of 0.6 has been prepared and cured at 20C. In case of reference OPC mortar the water/cement ratio was 0.50. The mortars constituent matrix has been shown in table 5 and the strength development profile has been displayed in figure 3. Though the strength development by HSC-3 after 90days was found 85% of control mortar, however the rate of strength development was uniformly linear with age, like control (as shown in figure 3) proves progressive hydration reaction. At 28 day, the new HSC-3 mortar also achieves 85% compressive strength of control OPC mortar.
HSC-3 (kg/m3) 533 OPC (kg/m3) 533 Sand (kg/m3) 1600 1600 water/binder 0.6 0.5 Strength(28day) MPa 30.5 35.7
HSC-3 Mortar Control Mortar
Table 5: Constituent matrix of initially prepared mortar
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Figure 3: Strength development profile of HSC-3 and Control OPC Mortar
Strength of a fully compacted concrete or mortar at a given age may be estimated by the well-known Abrams law which states that the strength of concrete is inversely proportional to the water-cement ratio. From various studies it has also been found that, not only the water-cement ratio (w/c) influences the compressive strength, but also affected by the content of other constituents of the concrete (S. Popovics, 1990; F. A.Oluokun, 1994; M.Ozturan et al., 2008). The other constituents might be binder content (generally OPC), aggregates (sand and stone) and plasticiser (retarder, air entraining or water reducer etc.). The selection of concrete proportions involves a balance between economy and requirements of workability, strength requirement, durability, density, and appearance. These multi- dimensional characteristics of conventional cement makes it very versatile. For comparing the behaviour offered by the developed HSC-3 and control mortars; the strength development of the blend have been analysed at following multi-dimensional environment: at various water-binder ratio (starting from 0.40 to 0.60) at various binder and sand content (starting form binder: sand ratio of 1: 3 to 1: 1) with and without plasticiser (1.5% polycarboxylate super plasticiser, SP) with and without 2% (of binder) NaOH alkaline activator For comparing purpose, the strength at 14 days offered by HSC-3 using 2% NaOH alkaline activator has been analysed. From figure 4 it can be stated that in all cases of binder content except 620kg/cum (binder: sand ratio of 1:2.5), HSC-3 mortar shows highest strength at water/binder ratio of 0.45. Among all mix proportions, the mortar mixed at 1:2.25 (HSC-3 content of 690kg/m3) showed highest strength development at 14 days. The compressive strength of HSC-3 mortar does not linearly vary with binder content and water content. Similar results were identified by C Chee Ban et al., 2010. In case of control mortar though the strength was linearly varies with water content but not with the cement content as shown in figure 5. The optimum water/cement ratio of 0.35 and mix proportion of 1:1 was identified for control.
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Figure 4: Strength profile of HSC-3 at varying water / binder and binder/sand ratio
Figure 5: Strength profile of control mortar at varying water / binder and binder/sand ratio
5.1 Mortar and paste strength Analysing the paste and mortar strength offered by any cementitious material is an important tool for characterising its behaviour in hydrated state. The mortar of new blended product shows higher strength development than its paste while using NaOH or super plasticiser (SP) as shown in figure 6 .The improved bond strength between binder paste and aggregate rather than binder paste matrix showed by HSC-3 is in contrast with control. In case of control mortar, the presence of weak interfacial zone is liable to show lower strength
49
than its paste. But, in HSC-3 mortar, the presence of silica fume eliminates this weak link by strengthening the binder paste-aggregate bond and forming a less porous and more homogeneous microstructure in the inter-facial region thus produce higher mortar strength (H. A. Toutanji et al., 1995). For this reason the mortars compressive strength increases linearly with the increase of cement content in case of cement but not for new blends. Based on this characteristic of cement and for practical consideration; the cement: sand ratio of 1:2.25 at water/cement ratio of 0.35 has been used in preparing the control mortar for comparing purpose in this study.
Figure 6: Mortar and paste strength of control and HSC-3
5.2 Influence of water/binder ratio Abrams law is a very effective instrument for establishing relationship between compressive strength and water/cement ratio of pure cement mix at given age. But for supplementary cementitious materials especially in case of 100% cement replaced by other pozzolanic materials, the water/cement ratio law demands calibration. Analysing different samples at optimum binder: sand ratio of 1:2.25 as shown in figure 7, it can be concluded that for the developed products HSC-3 and HSC-4, the Abrams law is applicable at water/binder ratio more than 0.4. G Appa Rao, 2001 also observed similar characteristics in the range of very low and very high strength mortars using 43 grade cement. In case of every mix proportions falling in the range of 1: 3 to 1:2; Rao observed that water/cement ratio of 0.35 offer highest strength. The generalised relationship between strength at 14 day (S14) and water /binder (w/b) ratio for the developed blends HSC-3 and HSC-4 can be written by following equation (1) and equation (2) respectively. S14 = 14.221 (w/b)1.318 (1) S14= 9.366 (w/b)1.325 (2)
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Figure 7: The relationship between water/binder ratio and compressive strength
5.3 Alkali activation versus water disparsing plasticiser For quantifying the effectiveness of using NaOH as an actvator and superplasticiser (SP), two types of mortar specimens of HSC-3 have been prepared using 2% NaOH and 1.5% SP (of binder) respectively.Cement paste containg 10% SF was reported to show highest compressive strength when induced by 1.5% SP (M. HeikaL et al.,2006). The average strength development at different ages has been illustarted in figure 8. From figure 8 it can be concluded that dispersing SF and fly ash particles is more effective than NaOH alkali activation of fly ashes used in the new blend.
Figure 8: Effect of NaOH alkali activation and water dispersing plasticiser
51
6. PERFORMANCE OF NEW PRODUCT AT OPTIMISED BLEND PARAMETERS

Optimised mix constituent matrix of the mortar of the new blends and control has been tabulated in table 6 .The comparative strengths offered by these mortar (HSC-3 and HSC-4 ) using 1.5% SP with their optimum binder (1:2.25) and water content has been demonstrated in figure 9. Though HSC-3 shows slightly low strength than the control but its rate of hydration is more than control between 3 day and 7 day as shown in figure 9. From figure 9 it can also be concluded that HSC-3 and control have very similar degree of hydration whereas HSC-4 offer very high degree of hydration between 3 day and 28 day. Though after 28 days of curing HSC-3 and HSC-4 attained 103% and 75% strength of control (figure 10). The trend of hydration in both blends (HSC-3 and HSC-4) at later ages (such as 90 days) demands further analysis which will be explained on another future paper to publish in this journal. I Fernandez Olmo et al., 2001 suggested that presence of ZnO decreases the strength of cement at short ages (7 and 28 days), but its effect decrease at later ages. The presence of Fe2O3 was also found retard the strength to a greater extent compared to ZnO. The lower amount of zinc and iron oxides (table 4) and higher fineness (figure 1) of HSC-3 (made from FA1, FA2 and SF) might be liable to produce higher strength (up to 28 days) than HSC-4 (made from FA1, FA3 and SF). The possible formation of syngenite (CaSO4.K2SO4.H2O) as reaction product in HSC-3 (for its higher SO3 and K2O content) that has been confirmed by EDS analysis of its hydration product after 7 day curing ( figure 11 ), might be liable to produce strength lower than control at early stage (I.Odler et al., 1983). However, the dense microstructure in SEM and presence of calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H) in EDS spectrum are the main parameters that contributing to the mortar microstructure strength upon hydration by the new cementless blend.
HSC-3 (kg/m3) HSC-4 (kg/m3) Cement (kg/m3) Sand (kg/m3) Water/binder ratio SP
HSC-3 Mortar HSC-4 Mortar Control Mortar
690
690
690
1552 1552 1552
0.45 0.45 0.35
1.5% 1.5%
Table 6: Optimised constituent matrix of new blends and control mortar
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Figure 9: Comparative strength development with optimum mix design
Figure 10: Rate of strength development by HSC-3 and HSC-4 mortar
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Figure 11: EDS spectrum of hydartion product of HSC-3 blend at 7day
7. CONCLUSION
New two cementless blends have been developed using byproduct fly ashes generated from electric power plants through the incinaration of domestic and industrial wastes. Both blends showed similar physical and chemical properties to conventional cement with lower sulphate and chloride contents HSC-3 blended formulation showed a similar versatality to reference cment by producing different grade mortar at varying binder and water content The new blend (HSC-3) showed an improved bond strength between binder paste and aggregate rather than binder paste matrix as the case in the control cement paste Dispersing the fly ashes and silica fume particles within the mortars produced by adding polycarboxylate based plasticiser was found more effective in improving the products compressive strength compared with the use of alkali activation
Currently the authors are engaged in further research activities to address the following issues: Investigating the conformity of the new cementitious products to the criterion of cement mentioned in BS EN 197
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Further micro structural analysis of hydration products of both blends at age range from 3 to 180 days Development of a statistical model for predicting the new products properties, durability and mechanical strength including compressive, flexural and tensile strength at varying constituent materials of blends, water content, age.
REFERENCES
B.B. Sabir, 1995. High-strength condensed silica fume concrete, Magazine of Concrete Research., 47 (172) (1995) 219226. BS EN 197-1:2000, 2007. Part 1: Composition, specifications and conformity criteria for common cements C.C. Ban and M. Ramli, 2010. Optimization of Mix Proportion of High Performance Mortar for Structural Applications. American J. of Engineering and Applied Sciences 3, Vol.4 (2010).pp. 643649. E. Rasa, H. Ketabchi and M.H. Afshar, 2009.Predicting density and compressive strength of concrete cement paste containing silica fume using artificial neural networks. Transaction A: Civil Engineering,Vol. 16, No. 1(2009), pp. 3342 F. A.Oluokun, 1994. Fly Ash Concrete Mix Design and the Water-Cement Ratio Law. ACI Materials Journal 91, Vol.4 (1994), 362371. G. Appa Rao, 2001. Generalization of Abrams' law for cement mortars. Cement and Concrete Research 31 (2001).pp. 495502. H. A. Toutanji, T. El-Korchi,1995. The influence of silica fumes on the compressive strength of cement paste and mortar. Cement and Concrete Research, Vol. 25, No. 7(1995), pp. 15911602. I. Fernandez Olmo, E. Chacon and A. Irabien, 2001. Influence of lead, zinc, iron (III) and chromium (III) oxides on the setting time and strength development of Portland cement. Cement and Concrete Research, Vol. 31, No. 8 (2001), pp. 12131219. I. Odler and R. Wonnemann, 1983. Effect of alkalies on Portland cement hydration. Cement and Concrete Research Volume 13, Issue 4, (1983), pp. 477482. M.Ozturan, B.Kutlu, T. Ozturan, 2008. Comparison of concrete strength prediction techniques with artificial neural network approach. Building research journal, Volume 56 (2008) M. Heikal, M. Saad Morsy, I. Aiad, 2006. Effect of polycarboxylate superplasticizer on hydration characteristics of cement pastes containing silica fume. Ceramics, volume 50, Vol. 1(2006), pp. 514. P. Stellacci, L. Liberti, M. Notarnicola, P.L. Bishop, 2009.Valorization of coal fly ash by mechano-chemical activation Part II. Enhancing pozzolanic reactivity, Chemical Engineering Journal 149 (2009) 1924. R.G. DSouza and S.Shrihari,2007. Disposal of Incinerator Ash by Adding to Concrete. Proceedings of the International Conference on Sustainable Solid Waste Management, 5 7 September 2007, Chennai, India. pp.398405. R. Kumar, S. Kumar, S.P. Mehrotra,2007. Review Towards sustainable solutions for fly ash through mechanical activation, Resources, Conservation and Recycling 52 (2007) 157179. S.Kenai ,W. Soboyejo , A. Soboyejo,2004. Some Engineering Properties of Limestone Concrete.Materials and manufacturing processes.Vol. 19, No. 5 (2004), pp. 949961. S. Rukzon, P. Chindaprasirt, R. Mahachai, 2009.Effect of grinding on chemical and physical properties of rice husk ash, International Journal of Minerals, Metallurgy and Materials Volume 16, Number 2, April 2009, Page 242.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary S. Popovics, 1990. Analysis of Concrete Strength versus Water-Cement Ratio Relationship. ACI Materials Journal 87, Vol. 5 (1990), 517529. V. Yogendran, B.W. Langan, M.N. Haque, and M.A. Ward, 1987.Silica Fume in High Strength Concrete. ACI Journal of Materials (1987), 84, 124. Z. Sekulic, S. Popov , M. Ouricic, A. Rosic, 1999.Mechanical activation of cement with addition of fly ash , Materials Letters 39 (1999).115121.
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APPLICATIONS OF BIM FOR FACILITY MANAGEMENT: CASE STUDIES

Salman Azhar & Samuel Philips McWhorter School of Building Science, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama, USA Malik Khalfan School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia Syed M. Ahmed Department of Construction Management, East Carolina University, Greenville, North Carolina, USA
Abstract Building Information Modelling (BIM) represents the development and use of computergenerated n-dimensional models to simulate a facilitys life cycle. A building information model contains complete information about a facility as it evolves through design and construction. This information can be leveraged for downstream use by facility managers thereby making operations and maintenance of a facility more efficient. Recent research suggests that 85% of the lifecycle cost of a facility occurs after construction is completed and approximately $10 billion are annually lost in the United States (U.S.) alone due to inadequate information access and interoperability issues during operations and maintenance phases. The use of BIM for facility management (FM) can significantly help to prevent these loses. This paper analyses the feasibility of adopting BIM for facility management in academic institutions via four case studies. The paper first provides an overview on the use of BIM in the facility management, possible barriers as well as enabling software products. Next, brief case studies of four universities in the United States that have adopted, or are planning to adopt, BIM in the operation and maintenance of their facilities are discussed. At the end major conclusions and recommendations are presented. Keywords: building maintenance. information modelling, facility management, operations and
1. INTRODUCTION
The construction industry accounts for roughly eight percent (8%) of the U.S.s Gross Domestic Product (GDP); only the US government employs more people than the construction industry (Liu, 2010). Inefficiency in construction is a large problem; the magnitude of the industry gives it the ability to significantly impact the economic status of
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the U.S. Not only is construction an extremely large industry, it is also very technically challenging. The technological advancements and variations from project to project make the learning curve steep and the opportunity for error high. In addition, innovations that have positively affected other industries such as integrated information systems, better supply chain management, and advancement in collaboration technology cannot be applied to the construction industry due to the extensive communication gaps among project participants (Meadati, 2010). Communication issues are evident in all phases of a project; however, they have the largest impact after construction is complete. Recently, members of the construction industry have been doing a better job of adopting much needed new technology to the design and construction phases of a project. The development of three dimensional design technology that is capable of modeling all building systems (Structural, Architectural, and MEP) digitally has already had a huge impact on construction. This technology is known as Building Information Modeling (BIM). The benefits that have stemmed from this new design technology are broad. However, until recently these benefits were not extending past the construction phase of a buildings life cycle. Due to the fact that operation and maintenance accounts for roughly 85 percent of the cost associated with designing, building, and operating a facility, it seems logical that the majority of this effort should be focused on the building after it is constructed (Sattineni & Thuston, 2009).
2. RESEARCH CONTEXT
Building Information Modeling (BIM) has proved itself to be an incredible tool, and is seeing widespread use throughout the construction industry. The BIM software is capable of developing a scaled digital model of an actual facility before, during or after the construction process. Designers can create a BIM model of a concept during the preconstruction phase of a project and update the model as the design progresses. The model typically continues to be updated as construction progresses; however, its value is lost once construction is complete. Recent advances in technology are now taking the information integrated into the BIM model and using it for operation and maintenance purposes in the post construction stage of a buildings life cycle. The distinguishing factor that makes BIM different from other computer modeling systems, such as Google Sketch-up, is its ability to attach information to components within a building. This information is mainly being used in design and construction. However, the potential value of applying and constantly updating the model information throughout the lifecycle of a building is hard to miss (Ruiz, 2010). This technology has not yet seen widespread use but this will not last long. Though full adoption of BIM for Facility Management (FM) still looms more as a vision than a reality, I dont expect this to remain the case much longer. The opportunity is too compelling. (Jordani, 2010) Project Owners are becoming aware of the potential that BIM has in saving them large sums of money through the operation and maintenance of their properties. These Owners are
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anxious for a more efficient Facility Management system, one that can provide them significant savings during building operation and maintenance. They are looking to Architects and Engineers to provide this technology; however, an efficient system still has not reached the mainstream. Consequently, the question that arises is how can the use of BIM become more feasible and effective for facility operation, maintenance and management? The focus of this study is to identify the best practices of BIM for FM, identify what BIMbased FM software is available in the AEC-FM industry, identify and analyze Universities using, or planning to use BIM for FM, identify information required to be input into a BIM model in order to use the model for Facility Management, and develop guidelines for academic institutions to adopt BIM for Facility Management. The questions that this study aims to answer are as follows: 1. What are the industry best practices of the use of BIM for FM? 2. What BIM based software systems are available for Facility Management? 3. What Universities are planning to use, or are currently using a BIM based FM system, and what are the results?
2.1. Benefits of a BIM based Facility Management System The fundamental benefit of a BIM model is that it provides information about a building and its spaces, systems and components. The overall goal is to transfer this data into Facility Management. In this manner information about building systems and equipment can be accessed by simply clicking on an object in a BIM model. For example, the information that is extracted for a piece of equipment such as a VAV box are location, name, model number, product type, operation and maintenance manuals, commissioning information and performance data. This makes it very simple for a maintenance worker to access the required information vital to different systems in the building. This data resides and is maintained in a Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS). The BIM portal is linked to the CMMS which provides the access and reporting mechanisms that make the information usable. Once this technology reaches the mainstream it will be able to provide facility managers of commercial, academic and institutional facilities an easy way to access data in order to improve operations, lower costs, and extend the life of equipment and assets (Ruiz, 2010).
2.2 Barriers to Implementation The first, and largest, barrier to implementation of BIM in a post construction setting is the fragmentation of the construction industry. Typically, the owner and operator of a facility will receive inadequate information for use in operating the building. As-built drawings and documents rarely are received in a completed format, and when the documents are received
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they are unorganized and unable to assist in facility maintenance in any significant manner. For example, a University that has many buildings operated on campus will rarely have an organized system of accessing building information. In particular, buildings that have been operating for years will have little information on the MEP equipment existing in the facility. Many times money is wasted unnecessarily, due to the fact that the operators dont have access to an organized data storage system. In some cases equipment is operating ineffectively, or not at all, without anyone even noticing or fixing the problem. The inefficiency in information documentation is a direct result of fragmentation in the industry. As information passes hands it typically loses integrity, and it is common for information to seemingly disappear. The use of BIM in Facility Management has the ability to mitigate this information loss; however, the lack of collaboration that exists in the industry currently makes it very difficult to implement a system that depends highly on collaboration between parties.
2.3. Main findings The literature review conducted resulted in a few key findings. First, there is a problem with inefficiency in the AECFM industry, and BIM has the capability to mitigate this issue. Fragmentation in the Construction Industry is making it difficult to implement a BIM-based FM system; however, this can be overcome. Finally, BIM for FM is a new idea, yet it is a subject of high interest in the AECFM industry. The major software players in the BIM for FM industry include Archibus, Ecodomus and FM Systems. A thorough review of these software programs was conducted as part of this research and will be presented in a separate paper. Each software system offers the same basic features; however, they all offer their own individual advantages.
3. USE OF BIM FOR FM FOR ACADEMIC BUILDINGS: CASE STUDIES The use of BIM for FM can be divided into two general areas; general building management, and the operation of complex equipment and building systems. One prime example of a facility, or group of facilities, that incorporates both of these aspects would be a college campus. This section presents case studies of four Universities that have considered implementing, or are already benefitting from the use of BIM to aid in Facility Management.
3.1. Worcester Polytechnic Institute One such University is the Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI), which is located in Worcester, MA. WPI is a technology school that is attended by over 5,000 students, and consists of students from 62 different countries. The campus at WPI contains 33 major
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facilities which rest on roughly 80 acres of University property (www.wpi.edu). Research conducted by Zijia Liu as part of a masters thesis is focused on the implementation of a BIM system at WPI, which was completed in May 2010. The focus of this study is the development of an interactive resource that holds information about a facility and forms a foundation for informed decision making throughout the buildings lifecycle (Liu, 2010). In order to create a system that will be beneficial to the University, first guidelines needed to be developed. Through interviews, in-depth case studies, collaboration with other colleges and review of material available on the subject three basic problems were identified: what information should be incorporated into the BIM model, how to generate the BIM model, and what to do with the model once it is complete (Liu, 2010). The guidelines developed aim to solve this dilemma. After interviewing several members of the Facility Management department at WPI, the researchers determined that the most important information to be input into the model consisted of safety systems and equipment, and mechanical systems and equipment. The FM staff came to the conclusion that the safety systems and equipment that would benefit most from the use of BIM for FM are fire alarms and extinguishers and emergency lighting and exit signs; as these items need to be inspected on a regular basis. The parameters required for safety items consisted of the location within the building, and the installation and inspection dates. Items related to the mechanical systems of the building included the location of sprinkler pumps, steam, and electrical panels. The associated parameters related to these mechanical systems included aspects such as physical description, make and model, location, and installation and inspections dates (Liu, 2010). The researchers decided to create a model of Kaven Hall, which houses the Civil and Environmental Engineering Department at WPI. The reasons for selecting this building included the ease of access to the building (as a civil Engineering student), and the fact that it was a good example of the coordination of MEP, Fire Safety, and Environmental Safety systems. The issue of how to create the model was resolved by the use of Autodesk Revit Architecture, Structure and MEP. A complete BIM model that housed the required information was developed using Autodesk Revit for the study. Figure 1 displays a screenshot of the BIM model that was created. The next objective was to organize the accompanying information in an efficient, user friendly format that could easily be accessed by all employees of the University. Previous research by undergraduate WPI students demonstrated the feasibility of integrating information with an on-line system. As a result, the researchers developed a website that served as the interface for the end user. While employees of the Facility Management department were now able to exchange information more efficiently through the use of Autodesk Design Review, all employees of the University could now access relevant information in a centralized, online, user friendly format, simply by logging onto the website. In addition, employees can also request work orders easily through the online system (Liu,
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2010). Figure 2 displays a screenshot of Autodesk Design Review exporting information to the WPI website. The system developed achieved its goal of successful integration between the web site and the Revit model, eliminating the need for employees to update the system when changes are made. This benefit reduces labor cost, and mitigates the problems caused by inefficient information transfer through third parties (Liu, 2010). The system created was a successful example; however it is only a conceptual guideline. There remains tremendous potential to expand on this research.
Figure 1: BIM model of WPIs Kaven Hall (Liu, 2010)
Figure 2: Exporting Building Information from Autodesk Design Review to Web-Interface (Liu, 2010)
3.2. Indiana University While the possible implementation of BIM has been examined at WPI, other colleges, such as Indiana University (IU) have had the foresight to realize the benefits that BIM brings and have already experimented with a BIM for Facility Management system. Indiana University is a multi-campus school, with its two core campuses located in Bloomington and Indianapolis, Indiana. The college also operates seven smaller satellite campuses spread throughout the state of Indiana. In total, the University is attended by over 100,000 students, spread throughout the several campus locations (www.iu.edu). As a solution to the fundamental issues discussed, which include what information should be incorporated into the BIM model, how to generate the BIM model, and what to do with the model once it is complete, IU has created a formal BIM Execution Plan which is now used for all new construction and the accompanying building operation on all campuses (Liu, 2010). The BIM execution plan lays out specific parameters that must be addressed. However, it also allows for participants on each individual campus construction project to decide on variables such as level of detail required, specific responsibilities of each party and the option to include or exclude items such as an energy analysis model. This methodology allows for increased collaboration and improves communication between parties (Liu, 2010). The plan serves as a contract between parties, which include the Owner (IU), the Architect,
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construction manager and all systems Engineers involved in the project (civil, mechanical, electrical, plumbing). Each party must come to an understanding that BIM will play a large part in the design, construction and operation of the academic facility. Furthermore, by entering into the contract each party accepts full responsibility for accurately completing their segment of work in the BIM process. The system has been used in the construction of several facilities, including the IU innovation center which was completed in 2009. The intent of the BIM Execution Plan is to provide a framework that will let the Owner, Architect, Engineers, and construction manager deploy BIM technology and best practices on each project faster and more cost-effectively. This plan delineates roles and responsibilities of each party, the detail and scope of information to be shared, relevant business processes and supporting software. (Liu, 2010) The system implemented by IU uses the software Autodesk Revit, and offers ten possible BIM models that can be incorporated into each project; including a civil model, Architectural model, MEP models, energy model, construction model, estimate model and coordination model. These models all provide individual benefits; however, it is not necessary to include all of them in every project. The majority of information is input into the model by the Architect and Engineers, however, Subcontractors and vendors also play a part in the input of building data. There is a format provided in the BIM execution plan for information classification and organization that must be followed by all parties in order to maintain accurate, accessible data. The system provides significant benefits for the Facility Operator, as the efficiency of tasks such as location of equipment information are easily accessed. Improving the operation and maintenance of the buildings on campus is not the primary objective of the BIM execution plan; however, BIM models are beginning to be utilized for the maintenance and repair of building systems and equipment, providing a clear benefit for members of the IU facilities division (Liu, 2010).
3.3. Brigham Young University Brigham Young University (BYU) is another example of a college that has had the foresight to invest in BIM integration into their Facility Management system. BYU is a private University located in Provo, Utah. It is owned and operated by The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS or Mormon Church), and is America's largest religious University and fourth largest private University. In 2010 BYU was attended by 32,947 students. BYUs main campus consists of 295 buildings, and sits on over 560 acres of University property (www.byu.edu). BIM is currently being used to assist the Facilities Planning and Space Management Departments in recording, tracking and planning the gross and net square footages of all facilities on campus, allowing for more efficient management of assignable spaces (Curtis, 2010). BYU uses Autodesk Revit to create its BIM models.
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BIM models are constructed by private Architects/Engineers as part of the design requirements for new construction. Building information is recorded throughout design and construction in an organized format, and is turned over to facilities at the completion of construction. The BIM model, which is created in Autodesk Revit is able to export building information such as window, door and room schedules, equipment lists, room dimensions, etc. effectively to a file created in Microsoft Access, where it can easily be managed by employees without the need for extensive training on complicated software (Curtis, 2010). The parameters that are assigned to each space include room number, name, type of space, floor level, square footage, floor material, lifecycle, and replacement costs. This provides benefits to the Operator because space information is readily accessible in a user friendly format. It is difficult to quantify the monetary savings that have been achieved through BIM implementation at BYU; however, their continued investment in the system suggests that a beneficial return on investment is expected.
3.4. University of North Texas The University of North Texas (UNT), located in Denton, Texas is the fourth largest University in the state. It is a four year state college attended by over 36,000 students. The main campus resides on 882 acres, with an additional 285 acres in UNTs Discovery Park. In total UNT operates 163 buildings and 14 residence halls. The facilities division is in charge of managing a total of 6,212,810 gross square feet and 3,885,461assignable square feet throughout UNT property (www.unt.edu). The UNT facilities inventory management system (FIMS) utilizes FM Systems FM: Interact as a viewport which allows users to extract data straight from the inventory database. The FM: Interact system is linked bi-directionally with either Autodesks AutoCad, Revit or (as is the case with UNT) it can be linked with both. Users can access information online, and the amount of information the user has access to can be monitored by the system administrator. From the home page users who are granted access can log in to view a range of data; including information on spaces in the buildings, occupants, use, assets, equipment and building systems (MEP) for all 163 buildings and 14 residence halls on campus. The user navigates to find pertinent information via the main menu tree, from the main menu tree the user has access to a list of sites (floor plans), views and reports. The user can also search for information via find and search functions and queries. Information is displayed in the display frame, which provides a space to view graphic data (floor plans) and tabular data. FM: Interact splits the display frame in half which allows the top half to display graphical information and the bottom half to display a list of data. UNT is an innovative University that has a reputation for forward thinking, and experimenting with new ideas. An example of this innovative mindset is the plan to construct a new football stadium, named Mean Green which will be powered by wind turbines. The turbines will
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generate enough energy to power the entire stadium and 33 surrounding buildings (www.unt.edu). Future research may benefit from incorporating this University in their studies. The University clearly has seen benefits from the technology they have incorporated into their campus, and continues to invest in new technology.
3.5. Critical Analysis/Comparison In order to adequately compare the case studies conducted on WPI, BYU, Indiana University, and UNT, several parameters are identified and listed for each University. Initial parameters listed include University location, number of facilities on campus, square footage of campus, and University enrollment. Additional parameters related to each Universitys usage of BIM for FM include level of use, what the software is used to do, and the associated parameters that are tracked and recorded. Finally the design software used by each University and the method/software used for employee access to information are identified. Figure 3 presents a matrix of all applicable parameters of each University.
Figure 3: Matrix of University Parameters
4. CONCLUSION AND RESULTS

The study aimed to accomplish three main objectives: 1. What are the industry best practices of the use of BIM for FM? 2. What BIM based software systems are available for Facility Management? 3. What Universities are planning to use, or are currently using a BIM based FM system, and what are the results?
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Objective one and two set out to examine the best practices of the use of BIM for Facility Management in the AECFM industry, and determine whether or not the use of BIM as a tool for Facility Management is feasible in commercial construction. Through literature review, case study analysis, and industry input these objectives were achieved. The results of this study concluded that the use of BIM for Facility Management will benefit Project Owners and Building Operators in the future; however, due to the current limited use of the technology the actual benefit that it is providing remains uncertain. Increased adoption of the technology in the industry will identify the true benefit of the system in the near future. Only when these benefits have clearly been identified will the use of BIM for FM become feasible in the industry. This study identified that there is no shortage of interest in the subject, and it is a popular topic for industry research; however, at this point, the use of BIM for Facility Management is an experimental endeavor. Although the use of BIM for FM is still in an experimental stage, it is seeing some application in the industry. As a result, popular Facility Management software systems have adapted in order to offer the capability to link with a BIM model. The objective aimed to identify BIM-based Facility Management software systems available for use in the AECFM industry. The software systems identified, and analyzed, in this study were FM Systems, Archibus, and EcoDomus FM. Information pertaining to these software systems was described, and a critical analysis was performed which focused on three primary aspects: (1) the amount of use the software has been in the industry, (2) the ease of use/implementation the software will provide, and (3) and how exactly is the investor planning to use the software. The relation of Archibus, FM Systems, and EcoDomus FM to these aspects was described, and the systems were rated accordingly. It was determined that the software best suited for the clients use will be dependent on the individual clients needs. In order to display a comparison of the individual software capabilities a matrix was created. Next objective, which set out to identify Universities that are currently planning on implementing, or are already using a BIM based Facility Management system, was chosen in order to help determine a general guideline for Auburn Universitys Facilities division for the adoption of BIM in the operation and maintenance of a building on campus. Through extensive literature review, four Universities were identified: Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Indiana University, Brighton Young University, and the University of North Texas. Due in part to the wide range of manners in which BIM can be applied to FM, each Universitys focus, and system used, were unique to the individual University. A critical analysis was performed, which resulted in the creation of a matrix that compares the Universities based on several key parameters. In addition to learning the information required to be input into the model, the current management practices of the facility were explained in an effort to identify specific ways that BIM could potentially aid in the process, as well as the obstacles preventing the use of BIM in Facility Management, and the benefits the use of BIM for FM may provide.
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REFERENCES
Curtis, C., 2010. Revitalize Your Facilities Planning with Revit Architecture. Autodesk University 2010. Brigham Young University. Provo, Utah. Hardin, B., 2009. BIM and Facility Management. BIM and Construction Management: Proven Tools, Methods, and Workflows, Sybex. Jordani, M., 2010. BIM and FM: The Portal to Lifecycle Facility Management. Journal for Building Information Modeling, 1316. Liu, Z., 2010. Feasibility Analysis of BIM Based Information System for Facility Management at WPI. Master Thesis. Worcester Polytechnic Institute. Worcester, MA. Meadati, P., 2010. BIM Extension into Later Stages of Project Life Cycle. Southern Polytechnic State University. Marietta, GA. Ruiz, M. 2010. FM issue: Transforming Technologies. Today's Facility Manager. Sattineni, A., and Thuston, J., 2009. Whole Building Design Approach for University Facility Managers: A Template Using Building Information Modeling. Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Construction in the 21st Century, Istanbul, Turkey, May 2022, 13701377. Zyskowski, P. and Valentine, E., 2010. Models (BIM): How It Has Changed FM. Facilities Management Resources Magazines and Periodicals. Online at http://www.fmjonline.com.
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THE INFLUENCE OF STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION SUSTAINABILITY

Menoka Bal, David Bryde, Damian Fearon and Edward Ochieng School of Built Environment, Peter Jost Enterprise Centre, Liverpool John Moores University, Byrom Street, Liverpool, L3 3AF, United Kingdom
Abstract Achieving sustainability related targets is becoming a key performance driver for organisations involved in construction projects. Sustainability is a big concept in a construction project and a construction project is full of different stakeholders. It is vital to identify and involve all the relevant stakeholders with sustainability related target early in the process. As companies move toward sustainable construction and design, it is becoming increasingly important to engage stakeholders and to improve their performance. This paper evaluated different approaches for engaging stakeholders. In this paper, a stakeholder engagement process was adapted to align stakeholders opinions and beliefs and to develop jointly acceptable strategies for moving towards agreed long-term, sustainable solutions. Using data from 10 interviews, this paper proposed an approach of stakeholder engagement process that is most appropriate for sustainability assessment. Keywords: Sustainability, Stakeholder Engagement, Construction Project.
1. INTRODUCTION
At present sustainability is an emerging issue in every construction sector from public to private (Global Construction 2020, 2009). There are a number of causes for this rising importance of sustainability in the construction sector, such as imbalanced supply and demand characteristics, increasing energy consumption, fast climate change concerning both the environmental and the social sectors of organizations. According to Bryde (2007), the issue of poor project management performance and sub-optimized practices on construction-related projects continues to be of concern to academics, practitioners and policy makers. Considering all these above issues in the construction industry the focus of the research reported in this paper is on ways to achieve sustainability by managing the stakeholders to minimise risks and maximise values along the construction supply chain. Pezzey (1992), in an authoritative and extensive survey, stated that sustainability is an improvement (or at least maintenance) in the quality of life, rather than just sustaining the existence of life. Construction is said to be sustainable when it responses to remove the environmental challenges, improve social and cultural demands and deliver economic
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improvement. Previous researches (Mills, 2001; Wyatt et al., 2000; Vrijhoef and Koskela, 1999) carried out in this field also recommends that the construction sector must shift to an approach that is proactive and promotes sustainable practices. To achieve such an approach the researchers explore the capabilities of stakeholder management as a mode towards enhancing sustainability in the construction process. In this paper the stakeholder engagement process is adapted to align stakeholder opinions and their beliefs and to develop jointly acceptable strategies for moving towards agreed, long term, sustainable solutions. According to Hill and Bowen (1997), sustainability of a firm depends on the upholding of its stakeholder relationships. Engaging stakeholders through analysing them precisely could contribute towards developing a strong company culture and may increase the motivation of its employees. Engaging stakeholders through stakeholder analysis helps to: determine who among the stakeholders have the most positive or negative influence on an effort; that is likely to be most affected by the effort; and how to engage with stakeholders with different levels of interest and influence. This paper is structured as follows: in the first sections the theoretical framework on stakeholder engagement and the relation with sustainability-related targets in the construction industry is explored. Following this, the practical analysis of a case study is discussed and before being summarized in the findings.
2. WHO ARE THE STAKEHOLDERS?

From the reviewed literature, Freeman (1984) suggested that a stakeholder is an individual, group, or an organisation that has direct or indirect stake in an organisation because it can affect or affected by organisations policies, actions, strategies and objectives. According to PMI Standards Committee (2000), project stakeholders are defined as, individuals and organisations who are actively involved in the project or whose interests may be affected by the execution of the project or by a successful project. The conception of a stakeholder has taken on greater importance due to public interest, greater coverage by the media and concerns about corporative governance (Mainardes et al., 2011). Figure 1 depicts some of the different stakeholders in construction sector. Stakeholders in fact, have the capability to influence the project and receive both gain and loss from the success or failure of a system. They are interested in participating in the formulation and implementation that follow the successes of the project. Stakeholders are important for the successful completion of the project because their unwillingness to continuously support the vision or objectives of the project leads many projects to fail. A project could also fail if the relative power or position of key stakeholders is not properly recognised and the stakeholder management activities are not appropriately adjusted. For successful engagement it is important to robustly and rigorously analyse the stakeholders.
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Client Suppliers Client Tenants Client Employees Clients customers
Financiers Client
Engineers Architects Principle Material Contractors Suppliers
Trade Contractors
Demand Side
Supply Side
Private
Public
Archaeologists Local Local Residents Landowners Conservationists
Regulatory agencies National Government
Local government
Environmentalists
Figure 1: Construction Stakeholders
Classifying the stakeholders is the first step of the stakeholder analysis. The stakeholders in a project can be divided into internal and external stakeholders (Persson and Olander, 2004). Internal stakeholders are people who are already committed to serving the organization as board members, staff, employees and management and donors. External stakeholders are people who are impacted by the organisation as clients/constituents, community partners, customers, competitors, suppliers and others. It is important to get the perception of both groups.
3. WHY FOCUS ON STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE CONSTRUCTION?

Some of the following benefits result from general stakeholder engagement for sustainability: better understanding of the market condition, to promote reputation, to build relationships, to learn the priorities and needs of stakeholders, sharing their experience and skills, to understand the threats and uncertainties of stakeholders and taking mitigating action. Johansson (2008) mentioned that stakeholder engagement is important for a projects success as it helps an organization to achieve its strategic objectives by involving both the external and internal stakeholders to create a positive relationship among them through good management. Stakeholder engagement is crucial as it assists in achieving the goal of delivering the project on time, to budget and to quality. Different stakeholders have
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different ideas, qualities, intelligence and knowledge. Their ability to influence the project is also dynamic; sometimes it is high and sometimes it is low. Involving stakeholders in their business models allows the organizations to build up the ability to deliver value in the project more efficiently and consequently. According to Romenti (2010), stakeholder engagement acts as lever that can propel and translate corporate identity into concrete organizational behaviour. Romenti also pointed that it allows the organization to be consistent and maintain a temporal alignment between stakeholders expectations and organizational behaviour. Stakeholder engagement is a formal process of relationship management through which clients, contractors and sub-contractors , engage with a set of primary and secondary stakeholders in an effort to align their mutual interest to reduce risk on projects (Bourne and Walker 2006; Foley, 2005). Successful engagement of stakeholders involves actively giving and getting their support and working together to devise, plan and develop new business solutions (Persson and Olander 2006). A stakeholder engagement via a formal management approach assists to make stakeholders partners and maintain good communication with them and it helps the project participants to work in a team. Figure 2 illustrates some systematic steps of stakeholder engagement to achieve sustainability on construction projects. In this cycle step Processing the Engagement is composed of five different steps identifying stakeholders, categorizing stakeholders, prioritizing the stakeholders, analyzing the stakeholders and taking actions. To successfully engage with stakeholders it is vital to initially analyse their characteristics i.e. they need to be classified according to their level of interest and power. Identifying stakeholders relative to their level of interest and power provides an opportunity to bring those stakeholders within the judgment process who might have interest and authority to deliver sustainability related performance and who might have an interest in different sustainability related issues as well. In order to engage with construction stakeholders, such as contractor, sub-contractor, construction clients, project manager and architects, stakeholder analysis can be used to identify the key people who have to be won over, according to their level of interest and power.
Communication
Figure 2 Stakeholder Engagement Process Flowchart
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Figure 3 depicts that the more the key stakeholders will exert influence and demonstrate their impact to the project, the better the likely result of the project output. However, engagement of stakeholders would be facilitated if they could be identified properly, analysed by their impact and influence and communicated with efficiently and effectively. Newcombe (2003) pointed out that different stakeholders have different levels and types of interests and this can be seen with multiple clients or customers for the projects in which they are involved. Some have high power and low interest and vice versa. If the interest and demand of influential and high powered stakeholders is not properly considered, ultimately it will put the project objectives and its smooth implementation in danger.
Significance Ability to impact to the project
Influence to Stakeholders
Figure 3 Relationship between ability to influence and stakeholder influence in project
Also sometimes the internal and external stakeholders show their positive or negative views and differ with one another, through challenging to settle their varied viewpoints. Using the opinions of the most influential stakeholders will help to shape the projects at an early stage. Not only does this make it more likely that they will give their support but their early input can also improve the quality of project. Some stakeholders having more experience want to utilise their skills and confidence in order to dominate proceedings and impose their viewpoint. Therefore combining different stakeholders skills, knowledge, intelligence and efficiency will make easier to achieve the desired outcome of the project. Table 1 below represents some key principles in the stakeholder engagement process.
Inform
Consult Build Trust
Providing the accurate, accessible and real time information assists them to understand the ongoing problems, alternatives, opportunities and solutions. To get their opinion, reaction as decision-makers to analysis. Get time to build trust based on the personal behavior of the individuals and the common values of the organizations. Carrying out engagement in a manner that fosters mutual respect and trust.
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Involve
Transparency
Working directly with the stakeholders through the whole project ensures that their concerns and goal are consistently understood and considered in decision making processes. There should be a clear and agreed information, communication and response processes. Partnering with the stakeholders in each aspect of the decision making process including the development of alternatives and the identification of the preferred solution. Giving final decision-making power to the hand of the responsible stakeholders. Involve stakeholders to consider the success of the engagement as well as to get better project outcome.
Collaborate
Authorization Thinking beyond the engagement
Table 1: Some key principles in the stakeholder engagement process
4. METHOD
The main form of data collection comprised semi-structured interviews with a group of 10 senior and high-ranked infrastructure project stakeholders in UK. Face-to-face interviews enabled a probing of responses to explore what the participants were saying so as to ensure that each senior professional gave as full an answer as possible. The interviewees represented environmentalist, sustainability consultant, contractor/builder, designer, engineer, project manager, area manager, development manager, sustainability consultant, technical directors and quantity surveyor. Collectively, these high-ranked participants possessed a wealth of experience in diverse range of construction projects such as roads and highways, house building, schools, dam, water and waste water services both domestic and in overseas. On an average, the recorded open-minded interviews lasted for 1 hour each and were conducted over a two month period from July 2011 to August 2011. The data analysis phase was an ongoing process of fieldwork itself, rather than as a final stage in a linear model. During the analysis, broad themes and patterns were looked for, rather than narrow, precisely variables of qualitative research. The analysis continued until data had been reduced amply to enable conclusions to be drawn. The reported results present generalised findings based on ten interviews. The findings are presented below (see Table 2), where appropriate illustrative quotations drawn from the interview transcripts have been used to convey participants view.
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5. FINDINGS Stakeholder Participants comments Stakeholder Engagement and Sustainability Priority

Environmental sustainability, Stakeholders Involvement
Managing Director
We always take customer satisfaction surveys. We look more closely what they demand on the HCA (Homes and Community Agency). We develop scheme just not to get the actual design of the house but also to get the customer choice item from the local neighbourhood. So meeting annually we make sure we satisfy local residents group needs in terms layout, in terms of the nature and type of the accommodation in the 10 year and again we work with the local authority that do their all survey to come up with those demands. So we also measure performance indicator in terms of things like tenancies satisfaction again we got that is a key driver. Sometimes people are very open to express their views, interest and opinions. Sharing people's feelings and interest are good first step in building a successful relationship with them. However sometimes its very impossible to get it and then may be its better to draw out the rational than the emotional reactions to the project. We provide regular training and workshop for our clients, suppliers and customers to get benefit from education and to raise the values, improve their behaviours and habits needed to assure a sustainable future and also hope to transform society into superior structure without negotiating the resources to which the future generations are entitled. One of our key drivers is specifically having long term impact on any of our development in an area so we do a design brief and we look at the risk of the design in a project high level. One of the contributors in that is discussion for local authority support. So we seek for local authority support they undertake the detail housing action plan and identify what housing is required in what area. We encourage our stakeholder participation to reduce risk, to establish good pathways for sustainable development, enhance understanding and relationships, leading to better implementation of decisions. We have our own rules and regulations to reform decision
Project Manager
Communication, Social Sustainability
Development Manager
Social Sustainability
Area Manager
Social Sustainability, Communication
Sustainability consultant
Communication, Stakeholder Participation
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Environmental Performance Manager
making processes to increase opportunities for stakeholder participation in all steps of planning, implementation and evaluation of policies and actions. Our consultants and engineers are experts in all facets of environmental sustainability with energy efficiency, ecology and waste management. We constantly seek to introduce environmentally sustainable solutions project. We always praise our people for their ability, willingness to work in partnership and as part of a team to deliver a project, often in challenging environments. We focus on the development of building design guides, building regulations, better energy systems, reduce utility cost, utilize the low environmental impact building materials and of use renewable energy and resources. We treat that all of our stakeholders are important, from the local communities we treat them all the same, we want to work with them, we want to help them and we take comments and ideas from them. Stakeholder engagement works as a networking system that connects various activities in a project. It draws a definite mind-map of the situation, make visible of all risks and point out all the important connections between the various stakeholders both upstream and downstream. Once the project is been accepted its been worthwhile to presume funding again we would validate again the cost to make sure the actual cost is working on against and we would do for example a detail site investigation, this top survey all that stuff to make sure whole cost is covered and a financial model is developed. We have contingency and we make sure that we comply with the budget to keep pace with our stakeholder ability, if we going over we do value management to take something out to comply with the budget but without reducing the quality. We support local construction in fact one of our recent project media city. It has some facts and figures on how many local people are employed; we also set up apprentice training schemes, to ensure there is long term legacy, we also arrange workshop to make them understand the importance of sustainable development. We Involve our stakeholders as early as possible in the progression of planning and decision making to keep away from problems in later down.
Table 2 Summary of key comments from Stakeholders
Environmental Sustainability
Quantity Surveyor
Environmental and Economic Sustainability,
Quantity Surveyor
Business Development
Design coordinatior
Economic Sustainability
Technical Director
Social and Economic Sustainability
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5.1 Approaches to stakeholder engagement for sustainability Stakeholders views on ways of engaging stakeholders are synthesized into 6 main themes: 1. Growing attention on sustainability: As established from the participants, organisations have a very high interest on sustainability principles. Through wide publicity in media and political debates on sustainability, public consciousness on sustainability can be raised. Besides, most of the companies are using and hence expecting high quality of infrastructure. This pressures the stakeholders to consider sustainability in developing infrastructure projects. 2. Educating people on sustainability: Most of the participants suggested that basic education is key to a nation's ability to develop and achieve sustainability targets. Interviewees agreed that education can improve construction sustainability, enhance the quality of construction, reduce population growth rates, enhance environmental protection and generally raise the standard of living. They consider that educating the stakeholders promote their understanding and help individuals, society and governments to make informed choices. 3. Identifying the right stakeholders: The reason for involving different individuals or groups in a project or investment will vary. So they will also potentially affect the project output in different ways. Depending on the sustainability goal, attention should be given on who has the most interest and influence and who are most affected by the goal. The more they are likely to benefit or lose by it, the stronger their interest and influence are likely to be. 4. Online prospective: The fact that construction project is slow learning project than any other project. It has traditionally been criticised for their approach to IT. Its very easier to communicate in online rather than other way. The developments taking place in online communications have changed the way organisations are able to interact with their key stakeholders. Communicating with stakeholder through online helps to build long-term, dynamic relationships and open the way to move beyond the limitations of offline consultation. This online engagement, offers continuously accessible communication channels. The web is available anytime from anywhere, overcoming the limitations of time and distance that may otherwise deter participation in engagement. 5. Treating the stakeholders equally: It is important to behave equally with all stakeholders: from the managing director down to the rubbish collector. Different ideas can comes out from different stakeholders. If they are treated equally they will feel free to contribute in company decision making process. It is also to create a process that provides opportunities for stakeholders to express their views and concerns and allows the company to consider and respond to them. Moreover giving equal importance will stops and avoids criticizing other stakeholders contributing. 6. Get in early involvement: Building a new relationship takes time especially in construction project as it is temporary, larger, more complex or controversial. Good relationships trust, mutual respect and understanding among the stakeholders develop and evolve over time,
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based on individual and collective experiences and interactions. For this reason, most of the stakeholders try to engage with all of its stakeholders at a much earlier stage of a project than in the past. Engagement at the very early pre-feasibility or pre-exploration phases, hint to all internal and external stakeholders that their views and well-being are considered important. 7. Drivers of sustainability in construction: Most of the participants suggested that sustainability is not only a matter of choice but a must do agenda which requires collective participation from primary and secondary stakeholders.
6. DISCUSSION
From the above, it could be suggested that there are five main reasons for integrating sustainability principles on construction projects. These can be summarised as:
6.1 Environmental Pressure: A major barrier to last long the building life is climate change. Decades of unplanned development have placed significant pressure on the environment (The World Bank, 2005). Energy consumed in constructing, occupying and operating buildings is responsible for huge amount UK's greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore building the energy efficiency buildings is a key way to reduce our carbon output. As well as the soil ecosystems are now at a critical stage. In this modern age human spontaneous activities and behaviour leads to irreversible losses of ecosystem functions that put in danger of the survival of some soil insects. Ease of transportation: The ability for common people to access an easy moving life through effective transportation is also an important consideration for sustainable development to the stakeholders (Deakin, 2003). Most of the stakeholders are trying to encourage people to use different sustainable forms of transports such as cycling, constructing the development near public transport links such as bus routes, train stations, etc and also offering facilities such as bike sheds, bike hook within the development for the use of employees, residents. Business Survival: The output from the construction industry like from public buildings, commercial buildings, homes or infrastructure like roads, harbours and sea defences, contributes to maintain a sustainable economy on the whole. Moreover, it is really impossible to meet financial targets except noticeably reducing the environmental impact of buildings and infrastructure construction. For business development most of the stakeholders feel that it needs to change the approach they design and build the building specially to move on sustainable development (Erekson et al., 1994). The business motives for the sustainable construction plan is based on
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o Increase profitability by using sustainable resources more efficiently, o Enhance company reputation and profile in the market place by addressing issues relating to business and social sustainability. Durable and clean structures: Some of the recycled products have a longer life duration than natural materials, specifying recycled materials and products that can increase the lifetime of the project and reduce yearly maintenance. More so green building has another money saving quality that is its an ecofriendly home (Presley and Meade, 2010; Pitt et al., 2009; Majdalani, 2006). Using advanced techniques can control airborn pollutants during the pre and post construction that makes less air pollution than conventional new homes and renovations. Improved Quality of Life: Some of the participants suggested that it's hard to put a money value to measure the quality of life. As for example how much exactly would one can pay to get pleasure from a less-hassle day? When all of the criterias and benefits to green building and sustainable design are put in together it will enhanced lifestyles and assist to move into modern and smarter technology (Presley and Meade, 2010; Pitt et al., 2009). Sometimes natural resources are cheaper than the artificial resources, its getting easier to build green.
7. CONCLUSION
The research has highlighted a number of sustainability principles. Implementing the principles of sustainable development in construction organisations requires close orientation and focus on the interests and needs of the major stakeholders. Many construction organisations have found that there is a need to integrate sustainability principles at all levels. Evidence from this study shows that, the rationale of sustainability principles is shared by practitioners in the industry. This research has thrown up a number of themes in need of further investigation. To make the engagement process more effective this research could be expanded in future by focusing on quantitative analysis.
REFERENCES
Bryde D., J., (2007), Is construction different? A comparison of perceptions of project management performance and practices by business sector and project type, Construction Management and Economics, vol. 26, issue 3, pp. 315327. Bourne, L. and Walker, D. H. T., (2006), Using visualizing tool to study stakeholder influence Two Australian Example, The Project Management Journal, Vol. 37, No. 1, pp. 521. Deakin, Elizabeth (2003), Sustainable Development and Sustainable Construction: Strategies for Economic Prosperity, Environmental Quality and Equity, University of California Berkeley, Institute of Urban and Regional Development. Global Construction 2020, (2009), A global forecast for the construction industry over the next decade to 2020, available at: http://www.joinricsineurope.eu/uploads/files/RICSGlobalConstructionForecast2020.pdf, [accessed 22nd April, 2012].
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Erekson, O. H., Orie L. Loucks, O., L., Aldag, C., (1994), The Dimensions of Sustainability for Business, American Journal of Business, Vol. 9, No. 2 pp. 3 6. Freeman, R. E. (1984), Strategic Management: A Stakeholder Approach, Boston: Pitman Publishing. Foley, K. (2005), Meta-management: A stakeholder/quality management approach to whole-of enterprise management, Sydney: SAI Global. Hill, R.C. and Bowen, P.A. (1997), Sustainable construction: principles and a framework for attainment, Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 22339. Johansson, P., (2008), Implementing stakeholder management: a case study at a micro-enterprise, ISSN 13683047, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 3343. Mainardes, E., W., Alves, H. and Raposo, M., (2011), Stakeholder theory: issues to resolve, Management Decision, Vol. 49, No. 2, pp. 226252. Majdalani, Z., Ajam, M., Mezher, T., (2006),"Sustainability in the construction industry: a Lebanese case study", Construction Innovation: Information, Process, Management, Vol. 6 Iss: 1 pp. 33 46. Mills. A., (2001), A systematic approach to risk management for construction, Structural Survey, Vol 19, No 5, pp 245 252. Newcombe, R. (2003), From Client to Project Stakeholders: A Stakeholder Mapping Approach. Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 21, No. 8, pp 841848. Pezzey, J. 1992, Sustainable Development Concepts: An Economic Analysis (Environment Paper No.2), Washington, DC: World Bank. Persson, U and Olander, S. (2004), Methods to Estimate Stakeholder Views of Sustainability for Construction Projects, Proceedings of the 21th Conference on Passive and Low Energy Architecture, Eindhoven, The Netherlands, 19 22 September, pp. - 1 of 6. Pitt, M., Tucker, M., Riley, M., Longden, J., (2009),"Towards sustainable construction: promotion and best practices", Construction Innovation: Information, Process, Management, Vol. 9 Iss: 2 pp. 201 224. PMI Standards Committee, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, Project Management Institute (PMI), USA, 2000. Presley, A., Meade, L., (2010), Benchmarking for sustainability: an application to the sustainable construction industry, (2010, Benchmarking: An International Journal, Vol. 17 No: 3, pp. 435 451. Romenti, S., (2010), Reputation and stakeholder engagement: an Italian case study, Journal of Communication Management, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 306318. The World Bank (2005), Ensuring Environmental Sustainability, Available at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ESSDNETWORK/11057221115888526384/20645232/ensuring.pdf, [accessed 14th April, 2012] Vrijhoef R., and Koskela, L., (1999), Roles of Supply Chain Management in Construction, Proceedings of the Seventh Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA, 2628 July 1999, pp.133 146. Wyatt, D. P., Sobotka, A and Rogalska, M. (2000), Towards a sustainable practice, MCB University Press, ISSN 0263-2772, Vol. 18, No. 1/2, pp. 7682.
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POST OCCUPANCY PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF LEED CERTIFIED BUILDINGS A Study of Higher Education Facility Owners in the US
Dennis C. Bausman, PhD, FAIC, CPC Clemson University, Clemson, SC USA, dennisb@clemson.edu Snowil Lopes, MCSM Clemson University, Clemson, SC USA, slopes@g.clemson.edu
Abstract In the United States, buildings account for 65% of electricity consumption and 36% of primary energy use. Air quality, energy and water efficiency of buildings are several of the most important factors of sustainable construction. The U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) is leading the effort to establish a framework for identifying and implementing practical and measurable green building design, construction, operations and maintenance solutions. Their LEED rating system is the most widely used metric for classifying green buildings. A significant portion of the LEED rating system establishes criteria to reduce energy consumption, enhance water efficiency, and improve indoor air quality. However, LEED is typically used primarily as a design tool and validation of actual building performance is often not performed. This study investigates post occupancy performance of LEED buildings by higher education facility owners in the United States (US). For this study, post occupancy evaluation of buildings is defined as a systematic collection and analysis of building performance metrics (energy, water & air quality) to facilitate a comparative evaluation of a buildings actual performance with anticipated or existing building model(s). Higher education LEED building owners are surveyed to determine the extent of their evaluation of actual performance, the methods and techniques utilized, and the personnel involved in post occupancy evaluation of their LEED buildings. In addition, the aids and barriers to post occupancy evaluation will be identified. Keywords: LEED, post occupancy building evaluation, building performance
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1. INTRODUCTION
As global population increases and more people enter the workforce the need for commercial buildings escalates. In developed countries, buildings account for 2040% of the total energy use. In the European Union and the USA, buildings use more energy than industry and transportation. Building energy consumption is also one of the primary contributors to atmospheric greenhouse gases (Prez-Lombard et al. 2008). The built environment is a response to sociological, political and physiological needs and as the worlds population and energy consumption has grown the push for sustainable development and green regulation has intensified (Buckley 2010, Hunter 2012). Leading the sustainability effort has been the US Green Building Council, a non-profit organization committed to sustainable building design and construction. In 2000, the USGBC created a rating system titled Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED). Since that time the green building movement has continued to gain momentum in both the public and private sector (Post 2006, Buckley 2010) and a decade later the LEED certification system has become the leading building certification process for green construction (USGBC 2012). LEED is a whole building rating system focused on achieving higher building performance in five key areas: sustainable site development, water efficiency, energy efficiency, materials selection, and indoor environmental quality. It establishes guidelines to drive building design and construction toward more sustainable outcomes and higher performing buildings. The LEED certification process ends with third party commissioning of the LEED certified building (USGBC 2012). The term commonly used for performance evaluation once a building is occupied is Post Occupancy Performance Evaluation. Post occupation performance evaluation (POPE) has its origins in the UK where the British Ministry of Education in conjunction with local governments first undertook evaluations of buildings in the post-World War II period. The buildings evaluated were school buildings. The US followed in the early 60s with the Schools Construction System Development in California in 1961 (Preiser et. al. 1988). Post occupancy performance evaluation has been evolving as a science in Europe, and is gaining traction in the United States (Post 2008). POPE as defined by Watson (2003) is a systematic evaluation of buildings in use, from the perspective of the people who use them. Performance evaluation generally includes metrics measuring energy and water usage and often surveys occupants regarding their satisfaction with various building amenities, such as lighting, air quality, temperature, acoustics, and cleanliness (US DOE 2002, Preiser and Vischer 2005). The goal of POPE is to measure actual performance to validate expected performance and/or identify variances to permit adjustments and refinements for the building and/or for use on future building development. Tracking the use and cost of energy, water, and other building performance attributes and resources regularly to establish operational metrics to provide insight regarding current and future building performance is an important component of sustainable development (Post
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2008). Post Occupancy Performance Evaluation differs significantly from conventional surveys and market research. It uses actual user experiences and current building metrics to evaluate building performance. Actual performance compared to design, or planned, indicates whether building performance is consistent with original building model expectations. A difference between actual and design performance may indicate that the building is more or less efficient than anticipated, or it may mean that modeling assumptions differed from the actual occupant behavior, operating practices, or as-built systems (POE 2012). Post occupancy performance data is essential feedback to facilitate the enhancement of sustainable design and building performance. An effectively developed POPE program provides a systematic framework to confirm building performance expectations or gain insight into performance short-comings to enhance future development efforts. The results of post occupancy evaluation can identify the extent to which the design intent has been met and identify best practices that can be used to improve future designs and create best value (Conti 2008). Post occupancy evaluation can also help diagnose operational problems and/or commissioning errors, which may allow the building to reach a higher level of performance. Too often however, there is insufficient attention paid to performance of LEED buildings after construction is completed and the building is occupied. Often, building performance metrics are not effectively collected and/or evaluated (Post 2007).
2. METHODOLOGY AND OBJECTIVE

2.1. Study Objective This study investigates post occupancy performance of LEED buildings to determine the extent of building evaluation, the methods and techniques utilized, the personnel involved, aids and barriers, and perceived benefits of post occupancy evaluation of LEED certified buildings. For this study, post occupancy evaluation of buildings is defined as a systematic collection and analysis of building performance metrics (energy, water, air quality and user satisfaction) to facilitate a comparative evaluation of a buildings actual performance with an anticipated or existing building model(s).
2.2. Population and Sample Selection The population selected for this study was higher education facility owners in the United States. Educational facility owners were selected because: 1) they traditionally own, occupy and maintain their facilities, and 2) educational organizations have been at the forefront of LEED building certification. To identify higher education facility owners with LEED building experience the first stage was the identification of the institutional owners within the US Green Building Council (USGBC) membership database. This initial selection criterion was utilized to help ensure that: 1) the institution had built a certified LEED building(s), and 2) the
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institution was aware of the LEED certification process. A total of 360 potential study participants were identified from the USGBC database. The second, and final, criterion utilized to identify the sample for this study was membership in APPA Leadership in Educational Facilities. APPA is a professional organization engaged in the field of educational facilities management and its membership represents a broad crosssection of educational institutions throughout the U.S. One hundred fifty (150) institutions were randomly selected for participation in this study from the listing of education facility owners that were members of both USGBC and APPA.
2.3 Questionnaire A self-administered questionnaire was developed to solicit input from the selected sample of educational organizations with LEED experience. The first section of the questionnaire was designed to collect general information regarding the institution and their LEED building program and certification criterion. The next section was concerned with the organizations present approach to post occupancy performance evaluation and LEED category focus. Subsequent sections investigated building performance metrics, data collection frequency, stakeholder participation, comparison metrics utilized to evaluate building performance, and the perceived benefits of post occupancy evaluation. The response option for most questions used a 5-point Lickert scale to assess the respondents extent of agreement or the institutions application/adoption of each concept or approach. A cover letter and questionnaire was mailed to the facilities manager of each institution. In addition, survey participants were provided an internet link to complete the questionnaire online should they desire. By the close of the data collection period approximately 23% of the sample had responded.
3. FINDINGS
3.1. General Findings Respondents had completed an average of 6.5 LEED certified buildings and currently had an average of 3 buildings under construction on their campus. Completion dates of their first LEED building ranged from 2000 to 2010 with an average initial completion date of 2006. Commensurate with the relatively recent development of the US Green Building Councils LEED certification program the average age of the respondents LEED certified buildings is only 6 years. Approximately seventy percent (70%) of the respondents had established a minimum LEED certification level for all new developments on campus. As shown in Figure 01: Certification Level, twenty-six percent (26%) had a minimum LEED certification level of Certified, 61% Silver, and 13% had established a minimum level of Gold. None of the respondents required Platinum certification.
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3.2. Post Occupancy Performance Evaluation Current Situation All of the respondents were asked to indicate their level of agreement with statements concerning their organizations ability or desire to establish or improve their post occupancy evaluation of the LEED buildings on their campus. Response options ranged from 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree). In addition, this section of the questionnaire investigated if the institution currently performed post occupancy performance evaluation. The findings were that approximately seventy percent (69.7%) performed some level of building performance evaluation subsequent to occupancy. Table 01: Post Occupancy Performance Evaluation Current Situation, summarizes the mean response and notes any statistically significant difference between those organizations that perform post occupancy performance evaluation (perform) and those that do not evaluate performance (non-perform) after occupancy. The mean and 95% confident interval was calculated for each question/statement and all statistical comparative testing was performed to a level of significance of 0.05.
Statement We do not have the expertise to properly evaluate building performance We equip our buildings with sufficient sensors or metering to collect performance data Administration does not adequately support post occupancy performance evaluation We have the resources to adequately evaluate building performance New project budgets typically do not permit us to properly design buildings to facilitate post occupancy evaluation We adequately plan during the design phase for post occupancy performance evaluation We collect performance metrics, but lack the technical expertise to evaluate the data We typically do not have a comparative model to evaluate performance Post occupancy performance evaluation is beneficial Mean Perform Non-perform 1.72 3.81 3.22 2.68 3.36 1.86 2.64 2.64 3.90 2.90 3.72 3.63 3.00 2.81 3.18 3.27 3.27 3.60 Significance Yes No Yes Yes No No Yes No No
Table 01: Post Occupancy Performance Evaluation Current Situation
Organizations that perform post occupancy performance evaluation (POPE) believe they receive adequate support from administration and have the expertise and sufficient sensors (and/or metering) to collect and evaluate building performance. Conversely, facility managers at organizations not performing POPE believe they have sufficient sensing and metering, but are unsure of their expertise to properly evaluate building performance and lack affirmative administrative support for performance evaluation. However, both groups thought that post occupancy performance evaluation was beneficial. Neither group of respondents agreed or disagreed that they had the resources to evaluate building performance.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Mean Emphasis During Design Sustainable Sites Water Efficiency Energy and Atmosphere Materials and Resources Indoor Air Quality Innovation and Design Perform 3.77 4.18 4.72 3.86 4.27 3.77 Table 02: Design Emphasis Non-perform 3.63 3.72 4.09 3.54 4.0 3.64 Statistically Significant Difference Yes Yes Yes Yes No No
All respondents were also asked to indicate the level of emphasis that they placed on each of the LEED categories during project design. Response options ranged from 1 (none) to 5 (very high). Table 02: Design Emphasis summarizes the mean response and whether there was any statistically significant differences for organizations performing POPE and those that dont evaluate building performance subsequent to occupancy. Organizations performing post occupancy performance evaluation placed greater emphasis during design on the LEED categories of sustainable sites, water efficiency, energy and atmosphere, and materials & resources. Organizations performing POPE placed high or very high emphasis on all four of these categories. There was no significant difference regarding the emphasis placed on indoor air quality and innovation. Both groups place high emphasis on these two categories during project design.
3.3. Building Performance Metrics The remaining sections of the questionnaire collected data only from those organizations performing post occupancy performance evaluation of their LEED buildings. Table 03: Building Performance Evaluation Metrics summarizes the findings regarding the extent to which the organization monitors and evaluates each performance metric. This table provides the mean and the percentage of respondents for each of the following response options: 1 = none of our buildings, 2 = few buildings, 3 = some buildings, 4 = most buildings, and 5 = all buildings.
Performance Evaluation Metric Lighting Load Energy Use Cooling Energy Use Heating Energy Use Plug Load Energy Use Total Energy Use Water Usage Domestic Water Usage Waste Indoor Air Quality User Satisfaction Buildings Evaluated none few some most 2.81 27% 18% 23% 9% 3.27 13% 9% 19% 32% 3.50 13% 9% 18% 31% 2.14 36% 27% 27% 5% 4.14 0% 5% 18% 50% 3.82 9% 9% 27% 0% 2.85 48% 14% 19% 0% 2.68 23% 23% 32% 9% 2.86 13% 41% 18% 0% Table 03: Building Performance Evaluation Metrics Mean
all 23% 27% 29% 5% 27% 55% 19% 13% 28%
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The highest statistical means were for the metrics of total energy use and domestic water consumption of 4.14 and 3.82 respectively. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of the respondents performing POPE monitored and evaluated total energy use on most or all of their buildings and 55% evaluated domestic water consumption on all of their buildings. Cooling and heating energy use was a performance metric evaluated on most or all of the buildings for 59% and 60% of the respondents respectively. Conversely, just 31% monitored lighting load and only 10% evaluated plug load on most or all of their buildings. Similarly, metrics to evaluate building water usage for waste was collected on none or just a few of their facilities for 62% of the respondents. Few institutions also collected metrics on indoor air quality and user satisfaction. Only 22% evaluated indoor air quality and just 28% monitored user satisfaction on most or all of their LEED buildings. A majority of the respondents collected energy and water usage performance data monthly while user satisfaction feedback was typically obtained yearly. Table 04: Performance Evaluation Baseline tabulates the findings regarding the metrics (baselines) that organizations use for comparative analysis of building performance. The percentage of study participants selecting each response option is noted in the table. Response options included: 1 = none of their buildings, 2 = few buildings, 3 = some buildings, 4 = most buildings, and 5 = all buildings.
Comparison Metric Building energy model prepared during planning/design U.S. Department of energy performance metrics U.S. EPA energy stars portfolio manager GSA building performance metrics Previous years energy data for that building Other performance metrics from similar buildings Building Metric Use few some most 10% 20% 35% 28% 22% 0% 21% 21% 26% 11% 33% 6% 28% 28% 6% 20% 15% 30%
none 15% 39% 26% 44% 0% 10%
all 20% 11% 6% 6% 38% 25%
Table 04: Performance Evaluation Baseline
A majority (55%) of the respondents utilize a building energy model prepared during planning and design, previous years data, or performance metrics from similar buildings on most or all of their buildings. The previous years energy for the building is used by thirtyeight percent (38%) of facility owners on all their buildings. Fifty-three percent (53%) of the respondents utilize EPA energy stars portfolio manager as a baseline metric on some, most, or all of their buildings The comparison metrics used least are the U.S. Department of Energy and GAS building performance metrics. A section of the survey instrument was devoted to identifying the personnel involved during the various stages of design, collection, and evaluation of post occupancy building performance. Table 05: Stakeholder Involvement tabulates the percentage of facility owners that indicated involvement of each of the listed personnel classification and/or group.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Post Occupancy Performance Evaluation Tasks Model Performance Collection Other Creation Evaluation 18% 18% 18% 4.5% 38% 0% 5% 9% 3% 0% 0 16% 9% 6% 10% 32% 32% 0% 5% 23% 9% 6% 15% 32% 24% 21% 15% 27% 3% 6% 20% 5% 10% 27% 5% 2%
Building Stakeholders Institutions planning team Building Architects and Engineers Students Faculty members Facility manager(s) Maintenance personnel Building occupants Administration 3rd Party / commissioning agents
Establish Standard(s) 37% 41% 6% 10% 20% 17% 16% 40% 30%
No involvement 4.5% 0% 76% 40% 3% 14% 36% 35% 2%
Table 05: Stakeholder Involvement
Building standards were most commonly established by the institutions planning team, the building architect and engineer, administration, facility managers, and/or commissioning agents. Students, faculty, and building occupants were rarely involved. The building model was most often prepared by the building architect/engineer. Performance data was most often collected and evaluated by facility mangers, maintenance personnel, and/or commissioning agents. The planning team, building architect/engineer, students, faculty, occupants and administration were typically not involved in data collection or evaluation.
3.4. Post Occupancy Performance Evaluation Benefits

Post Occupancy Performance Evaluation: Helps us improve user satisfaction Permits validation of the building model(s) Should be an integral part of the certification of a green building Provides validation of performance goals established by the organization Facilitates validation of building performance Helps us optimize performance of building systems and equipment Promotes improved design of green buildings Provides justification for future green buildings Facilitates development of improved policies for bldg. operation & maintenance Helps us develop better base models for building performance Allows us to validate the building model Table 06: Performance Evaluation Benefits mean 3.95 3.73 3.95 4.23 4.36 3.77 3.50 3.41 3.68 3.77 4.04
Study participants were asked to indicate their level of agreement with statements addressing the perceived benefits of post occupancy evaluation. Response options ranged from 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree). Statistical means (and confidence intervals) were calculated for each and the findings are summarized in Table 06: Performance Evaluation Benefits.
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Statistical analysis supports the following findings. Respondents submit that post occupancy performance evaluation facilitates validation of building performance and the building model. They submit that POPE promotes enhanced user satisfaction and they believe that POPE should be an integral part of green building certification. They purport that POPE helps them to optimize performance of building systems and equipment and facilitates development of improved policies for building operation and maintenance. Facility managers submit that POPE helps them to develop better base models and improve the design of their green buildings.
4. CONCLUSIONS
A large majority of higher education facility owners (69.7%) with LEED buildings on their campus have established a minimum LEED certification for new construction. Most have selected a minimum certification level of Certified (26%) or Silver (61%). They believe that post occupancy performance evaluation of their LEED buildings is beneficial. However, a third of these owners (33%) do not systematically evaluate building performance subsequent to occupancy. Facility managers at organizations not evaluating performance think they have sufficient building sensing and metering capabilities, but often cited that they were unsure of their expertise to evaluate building performance and lacked administrative support. The lack of post occupancy performance evaluation can also influence green building design. Organizations systematically evaluating building performance placed greater emphasis during design on the LEED categories of sustainable sites, water efficiency, energy and atmosphere, and materials & resources. Performance metrics most commonly monitored and evaluated on most or all buildings are cooling, heating, total energy, and domestic water use. However, most facility owners did not monitor the performance of the building systems on most or all of their LEED buildings. Just thirty-two percent (32%) separately monitor and evaluate lighting load and only 10% collect plug load (energy use). In addition, waste water usage, indoor air quality, and user satisfaction are evaluated on most or all of their LEED buildings by 19%, 22%, and 28% respectively. The comparison metric for building performance is most commonly a building energy model prepared during design, previous years energy data for the building, and/or performance metrics from similar buildings on campus. Building performance standards are most commonly established by administration, the institutions planning team and the architect and engineers for the project. The building energy model is generally created by the architect/engineer or a third party. Actual performance data is most often collected and evaluated by facilities and maintenance personnel or a third party. Those with the least involvement in the process are students, faculty members, and building occupants.
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Higher education facility owners that perform post occupancy performance evaluation of their LEED buildings submit that it helps them to optimize building performance and improve the design of future buildings constructed on campus. They think that performance evaluation promotes enhanced user satisfaction and they believe that it should be an integral part of green building certification.
REFERENCES
Buckley, Bruce, (2010) Federal Agencies Continue to Support LEED Certification, Engineering News Record, 12/15/2010 Conti Jr., Eugene A. (2008) Performance Measurement Helps Assure the Best Value, Engineering News Record, 06/20/2008 Hunter, Pam, (2012) New Green Model Code Released, Engineering News Record, 04/09/2012 POE (2012) results. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 Apr 2012. http://postoccupancyevaluation.com/ Prez-Lombard, L., Ortiz, J. and Pout, C. (2008). "A review on buildings energy consumption information." Energy and Buildings 40: 394398. Post, Nadine M., (2006) Green Building Movement Gains Even More Momentum, Engineering News Record, 6/19/2006 Post, Nadine M., (2007) Energy Performance Data Largely Lacking, Engineering News Record, 11/07/2007 Post, Nadine M., (2008) Overall Performance Metrics Make Case for Going Green, Engineering News Record, 04/09/2008 Preiser Wolfgang F.E., Rabinowitz H.R. and White E.T.1988, Post Occupation Evaluation, Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, NY Preiser, Wolfgang F.E., and Jacqueline C. Vischer (2005), Assessing Building Performance, Elsevier ButterworthHeinemann, Burlington, MA USGBC (2012), US Green Building Council, www.usgbc.org US DOE, DRAFTResource Consumption and Environmental Loading of Energy Use (breakout group meeting notes from Spring 2002 Workshop), US Department of Energy, Washington, DC, 2002. Watson, C. (2003) 'Review of building quality using post occupancy evaluation', Journal of Programme Education Building, 35, 15.
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QUALITY MANAGEMENT The philosophy and approach utilized by top performing US contractors
Dennis C. Bausman, PhD, FAIC, CPC Clemson University, Clemson, SC USA, dennisb@clemson.edu Daniel R. Mattox, MCSM Clemson University, Clemson, SC USA, drmatto@clemson.edu
Abstract Over the past several decades construction industry professionals have attempted to integrate quality management programs and philosophies originally developed for the manufacturing industry. These programs, or philosophies, include Total Quality Management (TQM), Lean Construction, and Six Sigma, among others. While all of these programs are different from one another in terms of detailed approach, they share similar quality management principles. Guiding principles that form the foundation of these quality management programs typically include customer focus, continuous improvement, and company-wide involvement. Theoretically, successful implementation of a quality program embodying these principles leads to a higher quality product and enhanced financial performance; ultimately culminating in a better overall value for external (clients) and internal (employees, suppliers, vendors, etc.) customers. While quality management programs have experienced success in the manufacturing sector, acceptance and implementation within the United States (U.S.) construction industry has been sporadic. This research effort investigates the quality management program(s), organizational philosophy, and operational approach utilized by top performing contractors in the United States (U.S.). This study assesses the current state of quality management in the U.S. construction industry and identifies the key drivers for successful execution of a quality management program as exhibited by top performing firms. The research methodology adopted for this study solicits input from the organizational leaders of the nations largest general and specialty contractors to determine the extent of implementation, organizational focus, and the key drivers for successful execution of their program(s). The findings of this study provide the foundation for development of a best practice guide for establishing a successful quality management program within a construction contracting firm. Keywords: construction industry, quality management, total quality management.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Over the past several decades there has been an increasing demand for viable quality management options in the United States construction industry. Attempts to meet this increasing demand are evidenced by the construction industrys adaptation of quality management programs and/or philosophies from the manufacturing industry. The most popular of which include Total Quality Management (TQM), Lean Construction, and Six Sigma. While these programs have been utilized successfully by many contractors, widespread success of any one program has not been realized in the construction industry (Sullivan 2011). Though different in terms of detailed approach, quality management efforts such as TQM, Six Sigma, and Lean Construction strive for the same objective (Anderson et al. 2006). The objective is to increase customer satisfaction and improve financial performance through the systematic improvement of operational efficiency and building quality. Satisfying this objective, regardless of which quality management effort is being utilized, typically requires a companys long-term commitment to customer focus, continuous improvement, and company-wide involvement (Dahlgaard & Dahlgaard 2006). These are the foundational principles around which most quality management initiatives are based. Review of existing literature on the subject of quality management and the construction industry allows a further breakdown of each foundational principle. The following framework is derived from past studies on quality management, and is designed to allow further investigation and understanding of quality management in the construction industry. Programs and/or philosophies such as TQM, Six Sigma, and Lean Construction rely on customer focus, continuous improvement, and company-wide involvement as keys for success (Emison 2004). Theoretically, customer focus is achieved when companies concentrate on the following: customer feedback (seek, share, react), customer satisfaction (emphasis), and customer value (Pheng & Hui 2004). These are the drivers of customer focus. The next foundational principle of quality management, continuous improvement, is comprised of a separate set of drivers: subcontractor selection, operational improvement, performance metrics, and external assessment (Emison 2004; Strickland and Kirkendall 2010). The final foundational principle of quality management, company-wide involvement, requires an emphasis on yet another set of drivers: employee satisfaction, employee participation, and employee empowerment (Sui Pheng & Teo 2004; Salem et al. 2006). In theory, emphasizing each driver will support achieving the respective foundational principle, which in turn increases the probability of success for a firms quality management initiative. Successful implementation of a quality management program is believed to result in operational and building quality improvements leading to greater profit margins and increased customer satisfaction (Anderson et al. 2006). The purpose of this research effort was to investigate the approach and organizational focus regarding quality management of the nations largest general building and specialty
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contractors. This investigation concentrated on the foundational principles, and the respective drivers, of quality management programs. A primary objective of this study was to determine the key actions and initiatives of the top performing firms and how their organizational approach differentiates them from poorer performers. It was intended that the findings of this study would provide the foundation for development of a best practice guide to aid a construction contracting firms development and implementation of a quality management program.
2. METHODOLOGY
2.1 Questionnaire Design A self-administered questionnaire was developed to solicit input from general and specialty contractors. The first section of the questionnaire addressed general company information such as contractor type, building type(s), company size, and operating area. The next section was concerned with organizational focus and approach. Questions in this section were framed to assess the contractors foundational principles and identify the drivers of their quality management program. Response options for each question were established using a 7-point Likert scale to assess either: 1) the respondents extent of agreement with the statement, or 2) the firms degree of implementation of the quality management concept or approach on their projects. The third section of the questionnaire solicited information concerning the firms actual quality management program(s). Questions were developed to provide insight regarding implementation, training, participation, and company motivation for investment in quality management initiatives. Additionally, questions were incorporated to assess the perceived impact and benefits that their quality management program(s) had on building quality, customer satisfaction, profitability, and employee satisfaction. The final section of the questionnaire asked respondents to rank their firms performance over the past 5 years compared to the industry. Performance metrics included percentage of pretax profit (based on revenue), return on investment (ROI), and overall firm performance/success. Each performance measure was associated with a 5-point Likert scale permitting the respondent to rate their firms performance from the top 20% to the lowest 20%. Data regarding the firms revenue trend was also requested.
2.2 Sampling Frame The targeted population for this study was large contracting firms in the United States (US). Listings of the largest U.S. contractors collected and published by Engineering News Record, a well respected industry periodical, were used to identify the sample for this study.
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The sampling frame for selection of general contractors was Engineering News Records (ENR) 2011 Top 400 Contractors. All 250 general contractors in the Top 400 recognizing general building as their largest revenue segment, were included in the sample. Annual volume for general contractors in the sample ranged from 106m to 7,580m. The sampling frame for specialty contractors was ENRs 2011 Top 600 Specialty Contractors. Annual volume for the firms in this listing ranged from 12m to 1,135m. One hundred fiftyfour specialty contractors were randomly selected from the 377 firms in the Top 600 listing that identified general building as their largest revenue segment. A hardcopy of the questionnaire was mailed to the principle head (Chairman, President, CEO, etc.) of each selected general and specialty contractor, accompanied by a cover letter which also provided a link for online completion of the questionnaire, if the respondent preferred that response option.
2.3 Response Fifty-one (51) of the 250 general contractors in the sample participated which equates to a response rate of 20.4%. The response rate for specialty contractors was 15.6%. Combined, seventy-four (74) firms, or 17.9% of the 414 contractors in the targeted sample, participated in the study. Geographically, the responses were reasonably distributed across the southern, northeastern, mid-western, and western regions of the U.S.
3. FINDINGS
3.1. General Findings The average age of the firms participating in the study was sixty (60) years. Combined, 72% of the respondents revenue was contracted at risk and approximately two-thirds (64%) of their revenue was from repeat clients (specialty contractors 56%, general contractors 67%). Eleven percent (11%) of the respondents competed globally, 26% nationally, 40% regionally, and 23% on a state or local basis. Approximately 75% of the general contractors, and 66% of specialty firms, had a quality program(s), most following the principles of Total Quality Management (TQM), Lean Construction, and/or Six Sigma. Combined, 73% of the firms had a quality program whereas 27% indicated that they did not have a program. Figure 1: Quality Programs, shows the application of the various quality management programs. Interestingly, 44% of the contractors with quality management programs claimed they utilized, or incorporated the philosophy, of more than one of the programs identified in Figure 1. The age of the respondents quality programs ranged from 2 to 40 years with an average maturity of 13 to 14 years.
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44% 45% 40% 35%

% of Contractors
35% 27%
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

TQM Lean Six Sigma
26%
6%
Other
None
Figure 1: Quality Programs
Figure 2: Participation & Training summarizes the extent of participation and the degree of training in the firms quality management program. Over 90% of the firms with a quality program involve project management and project supervision and 80% or more of these companies train these personnel. Conversely, less than 50% of the firms with quality programs involve or train craft-workers. Senior management and department heads are often involved in the program, but only approximately 50% of the firms provide training for these personnel. Involvement and training for quality programs primarily focuses on project management and supervision.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sr Mgm't Dept. Heads Project Mgm't Project Supervision Crafts
Participation Training
Figure 2: Participation and Training
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Firms that did not have a quality management program (27% of respondents) were asked to indicate why they had not developed one for their firm. Figure 3: Reasons for Not Initiating a Program shows the distribution of the responses. The most commonly cited deterrent was training and 25% of the respondents without a program indicated that cost was the reason that their firm did not have a quality management program. Lack of effectiveness and capable personnel were both cited by 20% of the firms. Only 15% of the firms indicated lack of familiarity with quality management as the reason for failing to implement a program.
40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Cost Training Lack of Effectiveness Capable Personnel Not Familiar
Figure 3: Reasons for Not Initiating a Program
3.2. Top Performers Classification: Respondents ranked their firms performance relative to the industry based upon three metrics: percentage of pretax profit based on revenue, return on investment (ROI), and overall firm performance/success. Performance for each metric was rated on a 5point Likert scale permitting the respondent to classify the firms performance anywhere from the top 20% to the lowest 20%. Approximately half of the respondents (52%) ranked their firms performance in the top 20% for at least one of the performance measures. Considering the sampling frame for this study, the ENR Top 400 Contractors and the ENR Top 600 Specialty Contractors, this distribution is not unexpected. For this study these firms are hereafter considered the Top Performers. An analysis of the data reveals that 90% of the top performers (88% of contractors and 93% of specialty firms) have a well defined quality management program. The vast majority of top performers have a quality management program. General Contractor vs. Specialty Contractors: A primary thrust of this research effort was to identify quality management best practices for large building contractors (both building contractors and specialty firms). To achieve that objective, the goal of data collection and
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analysis was to identify the quality management focus and approach of the top performers and how it differed, if at all, from the poorer performers. Prior to analyzing the top performing general contractors and specialty contractors as a group it was necessary to investigate the consistency of the grouping. To accomplish that objective, a statistical analysis was completed comparing the responses of general contractors and specialty contractors. A statistical comparison of both: a) the total samples, and b) the top performers of each, consistently yielded a statistically significant variance on five responses. These five survey questions all dealt primarily with general contractor issues or actions about which specialty firms may have limited knowledge or a different perspective. These five questions are identified with an asterisk (*) in the following tables and the statistical analysis of these questions/concepts involved only general contractors. Data and Testing: The following sections investigate the foundational principles of a quality program (customer focus, continuous improvement, and company-wide involvement) and their key drivers for the top performing contractors. The findings are summarized in tables with each table dedicated to a different driver of quality management. Response options for most statements/questions were established using a 7-point Lickert scale to assess the level of agreement or the firms degree of implementation. The question/statement response scale is noted in each table as agree or project respectively. Several questions on the survey had a 5-point Lickert response scale assessing benefit and are labeled such in the response scale for the table. Tables are formatted to provide the mean response for each question/statement for the top performers and indicate if there was a statistically significant difference between the top performers (top 20%) and the poorer performers (lower 80%) on one or more of the performance metrics of profit, ROI, or overall firm performance/success. The mean and 95% confident interval was calculated for each question/statement and all statistical comparative testing was performed to a level of significance of 0.05.
3.3. Customer Focus Customer Feedback: Customer focus is one of the three foundational principles of quality management, and is driven by customer feedback (seek, share, react), customer satisfaction (emphasis), and customer value. Table 1: Customer Feedback (Seek, Share, React), summarizes the results of the survey questions concerned with assessing a contractors approach to customer feedback. Top performers regularly utilize customer feedback to enhance their performance and exhibited stronger support for this approach than poorer performers. On almost all their projects top performers shared customer feedback with operational personnel and were more likely to share customer feedback than poorer performers. Lastly, top performers initiated a preconstruction meeting with the Owner & A/E on almost all their projects. On all three statements assessing Customer Feedback, top performers placed a high level of significance (focus) on seeking, sharing, and reacting to customer feedback.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Significance Profit ROI Overall yes
Statement
Response Scale Project Project Agree
Top Mean 6.05 6.60* 6.18
Customer feedback is shared with operational personnel We initiate a preconstruction meeting with the Owner & A/E* We regularly utilize customer feedback to enhance our performance
yes
yes
Table 1: Customer Feedback (Seek, Share, React)
Customer Satisfaction (Emphasis): Six statements on the survey questionnaire were structured to provide input regarding the respondents emphasis, or approach, regarding customer satisfaction. Table 2: Customer Satisfaction (Emphasis) summarizes the findings concerning this second driver of customer focus. On most projects the top performers initiated structured client satisfaction surveys both during project delivery and after project completion and were statistically more likely to collect this feedback than the poorer performers. Both top performers and poorer performers submit that: 1) quality takes precedence over profitability, and 2) increased client satisfaction yields improved financial results. Interestingly, poorer performers believe more strongly that customer satisfaction takes precedence over project profitability. Lastly, compared to poorer performers, top performers submit that quality management programs have a more significant beneficial impact on customer satisfaction.
Response Scale Top Mean Significance Profit ROI yes yes yes yes yes yes Overall
Statement
Customer satisfaction takes precedence over project profitability We perform structured client satisfaction surveys during project delivery We perform structured post-project client satisfaction surveys Quality Management programs impact on Customer Satisfaction Increasing client satisfaction results in improved profitability* Quality takes precedence over profitability
Agree Project Project Benefit Agree Agree
5.62 4.71 4.84 4.67 6.56* 5.56
Table 2: Customer Satisfaction (Emphasis)
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Customer Value: Statements or questions developed for this portion of the questionnaire addressed variables that could be considered of value to the customer. A summary of the response analysis for this third and final driver of customer focus is presented in Table 3: Customer Value. There was no statistically significant difference between top and poorer performers. Both groups indicated that they were flexible in accommodating the changing objectives and needs of their clients and both tracked callbacks and warranty issues on most projects. In addition, the time required for project closeout was tracked inconsistently by both groups.
Response Scale Top Mean Significance Profit ROI Overall
Statement
We are flexible in accommodating the changing objectives and needs of our owners We track call backs and warranty issues We track the time required for project closeout
Agree Project Project
6.18 5.47 4.58
Table 3: Customer Value
3.4. Continuous Improvement The key drivers for the second foundational principle of quality management, continuous improvement, are subcontractor selection, operational improvement, performance metrics, and external assessment. Subcontractor Selection: The findings regarding contractor approach to subcontractor selection are summarized in Table 4: Subcontractor Selection.
Response Scale Agree Project Agree Top Mean 3.92 6.12* 5.92* Significance Profit ROI yes Overall yes
Statement
Price is the primary factor when selecting subcontractors We pre-qualify subcontractors and suppliers* We have a structured & comprehensive sub prequalification system*
Table 4: Subcontractor Selection
Both top performers and poorer performers have a structured and comprehensive subcontractor prequalification system that they utilize to prequalify subcontractors and
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suppliers on most of their projects. Top performers neither agree nor disagree with the statement price is the primary factor when selecting subcontractors whereas poorer performers are more likely to disagree with this statement. Operational Improvement: The findings for the statements/questions formulated to evaluate a firms approach to operational improvement are summarized in Table 5: Operational Improvement. Both top and poor performers aggressively implement technological advances to enhance performance, proactively meet with subs to establish quality expectations, and pursue a goal of zero defects on most of their projects. However, top performers are more likely to identify operational improvement as a primary organizational objective and have a stronger commitment to continuous evaluation of operational performance to identify areas for improvement. Top performers are more committed to the training of construction personnel to enhance performance and believe more strongly that quality management programs have a beneficial impact on building quality.
Response Scale Top Mean Significance Profit yes yes yes ROI Overall yes yes
Statement
Quality Management programs impact on Building Quality Continuous operational improvement is a primary organizational objective We aggressively implement technological advances to enhance performance Prior to major work activities, we meet with subs to establish quality expectations* The pursuit of zero-defects (zero-punch list) is a stated goal We continuously evaluate operational performance to identify areas for improvement Construction personnel regularly receive structured training to enhance performance
Benefit Agree Project Project Project Agree Agree
4.64 6.41 5.66 6.24* 5.74 6.23 5.85
yes yes yes
Table 5: Operational Improvement
Performance Metrics: Contractor response to the third driver of continuous improvement is summarized in Table 6: Performance Metrics. Both top and poor performers have a systematic process to evaluate subcontractor performance and upon project completion perform a formal assessment of each subcontractors performance on most of their projects. They both believe that quality management programs have a beneficial impact on profitability. Additionally, both groups develop their own safety plan and require subcontractors to develop and submit theirs on
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most projects. However, top performers more aggressively track the cost of rework and are more likely to have a systematic process to identify improvements needed in each department. Top performers are also more likely to have metrics to assess performance and isolate areas for company improvement.
Response Scale Benefit Project Project Project Agree Agree Project Project Top Mean 4.42 4.81 4.92 4.82 4.62 5.44 5.84 6.37 yes yes yes Significance Profit ROI Overall
Statement
Quality Management programs impact on Profitability We have a systematic process to evaluate subcontractor performance We track the cost of rework Upon completion, we do a formal assessment of each subs performance Each dept. has a systematic process to identify needed improvement We have metrics to assess performance and isolate areas for company improvement We require subcontractors to submit a project specific safety plan We develop a project specific safety plan
Table 6: Performance Metrics
External Assessment: The final driver of continuous improvement is external assessment. The findings are summarized in Table 7: External Assessment. Both top and poor performers solicit subcontractor assessment of operational performance and utilize a structured system to solicit constructive feedback from the design team only on some of their projects. However, top performers solicit design team feedback on a larger portion of their projects.
Statement
Response Scale
Top Mean
Significance Profit ROI Overall
We ask our subcontractors to assess our firms operational performance We utilize a structured system to solicit constructive feedback from the design team
Project Project
3.71 4.22 yes
Table 7: External Assessment
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3.5. Company-wide Involvement Respondent input collected on the key drivers of company-wide involvement, the final foundational principle of quality management, is presented in this section. The key drivers analyzed include employee satisfaction, employee participation, and employee empowerment. Employee Satisfaction: A summary of the findings for the first driver of company-wide involvement is presented in Table 8: Employee Satisfaction. Both top and poorer performers submit that retention of supervisor and management personnel is a continuing concern and both indicate that they develop employee rewards and incentives to encourage improvement. In addition, it is the view of both groups that quality management programs have a beneficial impact on employee job satisfaction. However, top performers believe the beneficial impact to be more significant.
Response Scale Top Mean Significance Profit yes ROI Overall yes
Statement
Quality Management programs impact on Employee Job Satisfaction Retention of our supervisor/management personnel is a continuing concern We develop employee rewards and incentives to encourage improvement
Benefit Agree Agree
4.33 5.41 5.62
Table 8: Employee Satisfaction
Employee Participation: Table 9 presents a summary of the findings regarding employee participation. Both top performers and poorer performers encourage suggestions for improvement from all employee levels in part because they believe that most improvement suggestions are generated by operational personnel. However, top performers are more inclined to have a well-defined process to solicit improvement ideas from employees and utilize cross-functional teams to improve organizational processes.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Significance Profit ROI Overall yes yes
Statement
Response Scale
Top Mean
We have a well-defined process to solicit improvement ideas from employees We regularly utilize cross-functional teams to improve organizational processes Most improvement suggestions are generated by operational personnel Management encourages suggestions for improvement from all employee levels
Agree Agree Agree Agree
4.82 5.10 5.13 6.23
Table 9: Employee Participation
Employee Empowerment: A summary of the findings for the final driver of company-wide involvement, employee empowerment, is presented in Table 10: Employee Empowerment. Both top and poorer performers submit that their employees feel empowered to improve their work processes. However, the employees of top performers are more emotionally invested in the companys success and they more strongly believe that it is their responsibility to continuously improve performance.
Response Scale Top Mean Significance Profit ROI Overall
Statement
Our employees feel empowered to improve their work processes Our employees are emotionally invested in the companys success Our employees believe its their responsibility to continuously improve performance
Agree Agree Agree
5.79 5.92 5.74 yes yes
Table 10: Employee Empowerment
4. CONCLUSION
A majority (73%) of large contracting firms have quality management programs. However the implementation rate (90%) is greater for the top performing contractors. Firms that did not have a quality management program (27% of respondents) cited cost, lack of program effectiveness, and the lack of capable personnel as the primary deterrents. Over 90% of the firms with a quality program involve project management and project supervision and 80% or more of these companies train these personnel. Conversely, less than 50% of the firms with quality programs involve or train craft-workers.
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Customer Focus: In contrast with poorer performers, top performing contractors more aggressively seek customer and team member feedback. They are more inclined to initiate client satisfaction surveys both during and post construction and are more likely to share this information with operational personnel to enhance performance. Top performers believe that a quality management program has a more significant impact on customer satisfaction and they maintain that it leads to improved profitability. Top performers consider customer satisfaction to be important, but they are less inclined to believe that profitability needs to be sacrificed in order to achieve client satisfaction. Continuous Improvement: Top performers more strongly support continuous operational improvement as a primary organizational objective and they aggressively implement technological advances to enhance performance. They believe that quality management programs have a significant impact on building quality and profitability. Top performers place greater emphasis on establishing metrics to evaluate departmental, operational, and subcontractor performance. In addition, they solicit feedback from subcontractors and other team members. They utilize this feedback and the insight gained from the performance metrics to identify areas for improvement. Top performers have a stronger commitment toward quality management training. They proactively establish quality expectations, systematically evaluate subcontractor performance, and pursue a zero-defect strategy. Company-wide Involvement: Top performers believe that quality management programs have a more significant impact on employee satisfaction. They assert that most improvement suggestions are generated by operational personnel and are more inclined to have a welldefined process to aggressively solicit improvement ideas from employees at all levels of the organization. Top firms develop employee incentives to encourage improvement and more often than poorer performers utilize cross-functional teams to improve organizational processes. As a result of the firms focus on company-wide involvement the employees of the top performers feel empowered to improve their work processes and are more emotionally invested in the companys success. They have a stronger belief that it is their responsibility to continuously improve performance.
REFERENCES
Andersson, R., Eriksson, H., and Torstensson, H., 2006. Similarities and differences between TQM, six sigma and lean. TQM Mag., Vol. 18, No. 3., pp. 282296. Dahlgaard, J. J., and Dahlgaard, S. M. P., 2006. Lean production, six sigma quality, TQM and company culture. TQM Mag., Vol. 18, No. 3., pp. 263281. Emison, G., 2004. Pragmatism, Adaptation, and Total Quality Management: Philosophy and Science in the Service of Managing Continuous Improvement, Journal of Management in Engineering, Vol. 20, No. 2., pp. 5661. Pheng, L., & Hui, M., 2004. Implementing and Applying Six Sigma in Construction. Journal Of Construction Engineering & Management, Vol. 130, No. 4., pp. 482489. Salem, O. O., Solomon, J. J., Genaidy, A. A., & Minkarah, I. I., 2006. Lean Construction: From Theory to Implementation. Journal of Management in Engineering, Vol. 22, No. 4., pp. 168175.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Strickland, John and Kirkendall, Bob. Applying Lean Production Principles to the Construction Industry. 16 Oct. 2010. <http://www.idc-ch2m.com/Papers/ IDC2001%20leanproduction.pdf>. Sui Pheng, L., & Teo, J., 2004. Implementing Total Quality Management in Construction Firms. Journal Of Management In Engineering, Vol. 20, No. 1., pp. 815. Sullivan, K. T., 2011. Quality Management Programs in the Construction Industry: Best Value Compared with Other Methodologies. Journal Of Management In Engineering, Vol. 27, No. 4., pp. 210219.
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INNOVATION DEPLOYMENT STRATEGIES IN CONSTRUCTION

Thomas Bock, Thomas Linner, Christos Georgoulas, Melanie Mayr, Johannes Meyer-Andreaus
Technische Universitt Mnchen (TUM), Germany, thomas.bock@br2.ar.tum.de
Abstract In the computer industry, as well as, in the automotive industry, the pace of innovation is already so rapid that within a few years a complete system or technology change can occur. Both industries steadily advance the performance of their products, meanwhile prices remain stable or even decrease. In relation to those industries, especially in construction industry we observe a low speed of innovation, increasing cost and the lack of analysis in construction specific innovation mechanisms. Despite a multitude of strategies and tools for technology, change and innovation management have been developed by innovation science in general, construction specific systemic tools and innovation deployment strategies had not yet been in the focus of research. The authors, therefore, started to build up a new research field that they called Innovation Deployment Strategies and systematically analyzed tools and innovation methods, (not construction specific), and innovation mechanisms that can be observed within construction industry, (construction specific), in order to be able to develop a construction specific innovation deployment view. As an outcome of their research the authors have developed the 7-DCI Diagram (Dimension Construction Innovation Diagram), a view on innovation in construction with the aim to provide a framework being able to support researchers and practitioners alike in identifying and generating innovation mechanisms fast and efficient, thus building the basis for a more changeable and flexible construction industry. Keywords: Automation, Construction, Innovation, Management, Robotics.
1. INTRODUCTION
In the computer and in the automotive industry, innovation is rapidly progressing that within the near future a complete system or technology change can take place. Both industries steadily advance the performance of their products, meanwhile prices remain stable or even decrease. Both computers and cars are today available for everyone. Backbone of this development is the highly developed, standardized and well automated production technology, and the structured organization around individual firms or Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). In construction, a similar development has yet to be triggered. The proposed systemic research in Innovation Deployment Strategies (IDS) shows that innovation, (innovation developed within the industry and transfer innovation), in the construction industry could be easily achieved by focusing on advanced and modular
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automation and robot technology, initially applied in the production process and later over the whole life cycle of the construction product. Moreover, the proposed IDS research deals with advanced examples from the construction industry showing that process and technology innovations, as well as innovation methods themselves from other industries, could be applied to construction industry once a certain quality level in automation and robot technology deployed within the construction process, and finally within the product, is achieved. Within the IDS research, an interdisciplinary approach is followed where analysis of the structure of various industries, and enterprises within those industries, according to parameters such as organization, production technology, product performance, product structure and product renewal cycles, is performed. Production technology is a key factor for innovation in any industry. Once an advanced and modular production system is installed within an industry, a steady advance in production efficiency allows in general enhanced investment in R&D, new-product features and product performance. The manufacturing sector (automotive, aeronautical, electronics, etc.) for production, uses a set of similar or same technologies (primary technologies) in terms of control systems, logistics systems and automation. Therefore, companies that supply e.g. automation and robot technologies as i.e. Schunk, Motoman, Festo and Kuka, can develop highly advanced systems and later on distribute those technologies to various industries with only minor modifications (spreading thus the development cost of innovations over various industries). Similar strategy applies for construction industries product structure. Considering total building systems with its subsystems, we can easily deploy innovative technologies on a smaller scale just on a subsystem like facade, structure, services, appliances, materials resulting in incremental innovation contrary to frog leap innovation for total building product systems. This approach enables technologies and subcomponents that are embedded in the final products of those sub system or component manufacturing industries. Sometimes advanced industries are even able to transfer process technologies and management strategies between each other.
1.1. State of the Art and Related Literature Technology and Innovation Management in general are well deployed research fields. An outstanding collection of essays covering the whole field of innovation and innovation management can be found in (Christensen et al., 2001). Basic tools, strategies and different viewpoints on innovation for the integration of technological, market and organizational change are discussed by (Tidd & Bessant, 2009). Creativity strategies and techniques have been presented an analyzed by (Hartschen et al., 2006) and (Backerra et al., 2002). Modularity as the driver for systemic and controllable innovation has been analyzed by using the computer industry by (Baldwin & Clark, 2000), and (Fujimoto, 1999) by using the Toyota Production System (TPS) as examples of the phenomenon of evolutionary organizational change. Further concepts of creating innovation fast and efficient by opening up products and services to customer co-creation (Reichwald & Piller, 2009) have been developed and advanced by concepts about crowd sourcing (Howe, 2009) open innovation (Chesbrough et al., 2008) and open service innovation (Chesbrough, 2011). And the potential impact of
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spreading computer technology and social-networking systems on industry, research and society, have been analyzed as well (Tapscott & Williams, 2010). Furthermore, important research has been conducted by (Cameroon & Green, 2009) and (Hayes, 2010) which see innovation as a kind of change, which has to be managed carefully as multiple actors are involved. In general, the research field change management argues, that often human beings or organizations are reluctant to change as existing structures, power distribution and revenue streams are changed, and thus the real innovation is to convince actors and change their mindset by incentives. However, specific concepts, strategies and literature on the impact of change and the deployment on innovation in the construction industry are rare. Individual aspects of deploying innovation in construction industry as the concept of creating innovation by developing technologies for extreme environments (Linner & Bock, 2010) and by transferring technologies between ship building and construction industry (Bock et al., 2011a) have been explored by the authors. Additionally, the authors have analyzed the possibility of deploying advanced construction technology (Bock et al., 2011b) and product and service innovation within the construction industry (Linner & Bock, 2012). Although individual aspects of innovation in construction have been discussed a comprehensive framework that can be used for the systemic classification and generation of innovation in the construction industry has not been developed yet.
1.2. Research Question The state of the art as well as the related literature reveals that construction specific change, technology and innovation generation methodology, and related management tools currently do not exist in a form that could support researchers and practitioners alike. Thus several research questions have been formulated by the authors. First, it had to be found out which innovation mechanisms are active within construction industry and how multiple mechanisms are interconnected and influence each other. Further, it had to be analyzed how production technology (which compared to other industries still quite labor is based in construction) influences the ability for innovation. Thus, the final research goal of the authors became the identification and analysis of construction specific innovation mechanisms, for the development of a comprehensive view or framework, which explains in a generalizing manner how innovation in construction can be created and deployed.
1.3. Research Method To achieve their research goals the authors systematically went through 3 research steps. During step 1, the authors have analyzed multiple viewpoints and tools about innovation that have been developed in industry and innovation science (not construction specific, section 2). During step 2, authors have identified, analyzed and categorized innovation mechanisms relevant within construction industry (section 3 presents a summary of this study). Finally, in step 3, the authors have combined the knowledge gathered in both previous steps and advanced it in order to develop their own construction specific view for realizing innovation
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in construction (7-dimensional view, section 3). The paper describes all 3 research steps performed and presents the 7-DCI Diagram (Dimension Construction Innovation Diagram). Finally, the paper gives an outlook on future research activities.
2. TOOLS FOR INNOVATION CREATION

In general (not construction specific) innovation science various viewpoints have been established to look onto the potential innovation space and to define in which context the existing product, service or process and the intended change is situated. On basis of the literature review performed and outlined in the previous section, the authors have identified and analyzed a multitude of frameworks and views on innovations. The most important viewpoints the authors have found are: typological viewpoint, system viewpoint, process viewpoint and novelty level viewpoint (Table 1). Typological Viewpoint System Viewpoint
Process Viewpoint
Novelty Level Viewpoint
Table 1: classification of innovation generation frameworks developed within general (not construction specific) innovation science
Typological Viewpoint: The 4-P diagram states an example for a typological view on innovation. Innovations are classified and then arranged within the diagram. Four classes of innovation are defined within this diagram. Paradigm refers to innovations or major changes in underlying mental models or simply to mega trends as for example E-Mobility, Ageing Society, Energy Efficiency or trends as for example the ongoing spread of small computation devices (Ubiquitous Computing).
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System Viewpoint: Within a system viewpoint the product, the product/service system including the economic, managerial and social surrounding in which the item of consideration is situated is hierarchically structured into systems and (a multitude of) subsystems. The sub-division into sub-systems can go down to the component or even mart or material level. In a further step, it is decided on which system levels the change or innovation is situated or has to be created e.g. on system level or only on a component level. A change on a system level is in most cases more complex as a multitude of sub-systems is affected. On the other hand, a change of a single component on a sub-system level might not necessarily affect the overall system or other components. Process Viewpoint: The process viewpoint utilizes the fact that every product or service is relative to time and thus embedded in a process which often involves many actors (users, sellers, providers, producers, integrators, etc.) over time. An example for a creativity tool based on the process viewpoint is the Customer Value Matrix. Along the horizontal axis, the process in which the product is embedded is sequentially laid down. Along the vertical axis influential factors as for example risk, fun factor or added value are organized. All steps in the process are analyzed in relation to each influential factor. Novelty Level Viewpoint: From the novelty level viewpoint, it is important to identify and if possible quantify the newness of a proposed innovation or change. Here the most common classification is the bipolar classification into incremental and disruptive innovation. Another classification system subdivides into routine innovation, improving innovation and radical innovation. A routine innovation is an innovation, for example, on the level of a daily work routine, an improving innovation might be the introduction of a new product or service to be delivered, and a radical innovation might be the change towards a completely new type of product (e.g. from looms to cars as done by Toyota). When developing an innovation the mentioned viewpoints can be applied in parallel, and the potential innovation space can thus be identified and analyzed systematically. All views have their strengths and weaknesses. The system viewpoint, for example, can precisely define which parts of a system shall be affected by the change to be introduced. The viewpoint can identify mutable factors for change of even complementary innovations that would be necessary seen over the whole process chain. What all viewpoints have in common is that the levels or systems in which they classify and or subdivide are quite relative. This refers to the general problem that it is possible to qualify innovation relatively easy, but difficult to quantify it.
3. TYPES OF CONSTRUCTION INNOVATION (INNOVATION BY X)

The following chapter summarizes an analysis and categorization of innovation mechanisms in construction industry. The authors of this chapter have more than 25 years experience in the fields construction techniques, industrialized building production strategies, automation and robotics in construction. Thus, the authors have experience in
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what it means to work on the forefront of the technology and know what challenges and potentials are related to technological innovation. This experience helped the authors to identify, analyze and categorize innovation mechanisms in construction industry. According to the notion of DfX (Design for X), the authors suggest an IbX (Innovation by X) categorization that is open and can be extended by a new category (and thus X) once a new mechanism is identified.
3.1. Innovation by Production Technology (IbX) One important innovation is the innovation by production technology, which is common in automotive industry. While the offered price for a car remains constant, the amount of features and technology increase. The competition between the production companies played an important role. So it is significant to optimize the production process and reduce production costs. The saved money will be invested for research, development, increasing technology and also for optimization of the production process. This enables the companies to offer a better featured car with constant price (Figure 1). Such a development can only be triggered by highly technological and automation based systems. Labor based production systems such as in conventional construction have, due to human nature, a natural limitation, whereas technology-based production systems virtually have no limitation.
3.2. Innovation by Modularity (IbM) The modular structure of a product has an impact on all phases of its life cycle: development, planning, production, sales and use/customer. Thus, Modularity is important to manage the product and control its success over the whole life cycle. Open and changeable modular designs that allow the designers and engineers to improve or adapt a product continuously, are of relevance for controlling change and innovation processes. The modular structure can be set up in a way, which makes it possible that individual modules and components of a product can be exchanged by new or upgraded designs, or that new features can be added without making it necessary to abandon or re-engineer the whole product for a new-product series. Some companies as manufacturers of high-tech cars in Germany or housing prefabrication companies, do sometimes more than a hundred changes to a product per year. Sekisui Heim, a Japanese Prefab maker introduces about ten new housing models and about 400 modifications and improvements of existing solutions annually (Furuse & Katano, 2006) change in that frequency can only be accomplished efficiently through advanced modularity based on OES principles. The modules that are not exchanged during OES improvement guarantee stable processes in logistics, production and sales.
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Figure 1: Product Performance in Automotive Industry
3.3. Innovation by Performance (IbP) Today, the complexity of buildings continues to rise rapidly due to new paradigms as Ubiquitous Computing, the demand for energy efficiency, and emerging assistance technologies. Buildings become integrated with a multitude of new sub-systems and extend their performance to areas, which have formerly not been accounted as being part of construction and building industry, but now gradually merge with our built environment. With the integration of micro systems technology into buildings and due to the tendency towards enhanced user integration and a tendency towards mass customization (Piller, 2006), buildings become not only more intelligent, but they can be much more personalized to the inhabitants needs and could further serve as platforms for a multitude of continuous and commercial services. These changes could have a tremendous impact on the whole value chain and are likely to transform building structures, construction technologies and business models. For example, the production of a building in a controlled factory environment is highly demanded when buildings are equipped with advanced technologies as this type or production could control complexity, price and quality. This example shows clearly that innovation in one category could trigger or even necessitate innovation in another category. We will get back to this issue later on when we present our 7-DCI Diagram.
3.4. Innovation by Technology Transfer (IbT-fer) As the name suggests, existing production systems will be used in another context. For example, in shipbuilding and aircraft construction, under slung cranes (roof) and rail systems (on ground) are used, which can be supportive in finishing buildings. A small quantity of companies developed and adapted such systems for the building industry. For example, an Airbus A380 is produced in an on-site construction and applied rail guided automation (Figure 2a). The Japanese company Kajima uses this system for its AMURAD (Automatic Up-
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Rising Construction by Advanced Technique, Figure 2b). The field factory is located on the ground floor as an on-site construction and a robotic system produced each floor from concrete components. Subsequently, all finished floors are pushed upwards by hydraulic press system, and then the next floor is also built on the ground level.
Figure 2a: Field factory with rail guided stationary production of airbus A380
Figure 2b: Field factory with rail guided stationary production of high-rise, Kajimas AMURAD
3.5. Innovation by Transformation (IbT-form) Innovation by Transformation is probably the most common way for innovation. An established technique will be transformed and adapted to increasing demands. In Japan, for example, it is common to build first the upper part of the building and start with the roof (Figure 3a). Under the roof, the rest of the house will be built on the ground level. For multistorey buildings, each finished floor will be pushed upwards.
Figure 3a, 3b, 3c:The traditional way of building a house in Japan (Left: Roof built first) was transformed, refined and augmented by new technologies over time. Middle: Sekisui House, J-Up System. Right: Kajimas AMURD for construction of high-rise buildings
Advantages are the whole construction process is roofed and construction materials neednt lift up in the upper floors. It is therefore, no crane required. This traditional way of building a house in Japan was transformed, refined and augmented by new technologies over time. For example Sekisui House with its J-Up System (Figure 3b) and Kajima with the AMURAD for construction of high-rise buildings (Figure 3c) refined and transformed that approach.
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3.6. Innovation by Overlay (IbO) New innovations could also arise from designing a new production line manufactured with a consisting production plant. This consisting production plant often specifies the used material and influences the design of the developed product as well as existing technology and knowledge is applied to it. For example, after the Second World War the aircraft production in Wichita stagnated, so the company had to look for another production line.
Figure 4a, 4b: Innovation by Overlay (IbO) of new processes on existing structures: After the Second World War Beetch Aircraft Company in Wichita had to look for another product to be sold and Richard Buckminster designed the famous Wichita House which could be produced by the existing aircraft production tools and processes. Left: Aircraft Production during War at Beetch. Right: Dymaxion Wichita House designed for aircraft like production.
Richard Buckminster designed the famous Wichita House (Figure 4b) which could be produced by the consisting aircraft production plant (Figure 4a) of the Beech Aircraft Corporation. This Wichita House evokes the shape and material of airplanes at that time. The idea behind this futuristic type of house is the mobility and optimization of it. The user can therefore move easily with the whole house because of its modularity. Another production line envisioned was the Dymaxion Car which looks a bit like an aircraft cabin. This phenomenon can also be found in the Messerschmitt Company. Messerschmitt was a German aircraft manufacturer and started after the Second World War with a new-designed car production line called Bubble and Cabin Cars.
Figure 5a, 5b, 5c: Innovation by Overlay (IbO) of new processes on existing structures: Shimizu subcontracted the production of the complex structure of the Pier to a ship yard.
Another example for Innovation by an overlay is the sanbashi Pier at the Port of Yokohama, located in Japan (Figure 5a). Originally, the sanbashi was constructed between 1889 and 1896. The architecture firm Foreign Office Architects designed the reconstruction to meet
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modern demands, which finished 2002. For this construction, shipyards were utilized and the whole building was built like a huge ship (Figure 5b). The Company Shimizu Corporation executed the project but subcontracted the complex steel structure to be built by Kawasaki shipyard (Figure 5c). As this shows that existing production structures in compared to construction highly advanced and automated shipbuilding, we classify this example also as Innovation by an Overlay (IbO).
3.7 Innovation by Customer Co-Creation on product and service level (IbCo) The requirements of a building increase constantly. To find out problems and customer needs, several companies perform individual tests. The marketing research divisions of Sekisui House, Daiwa House, Sekisui Heim and Toyota Home in general investigate the customer acceptance of the solution space in a six-month cycle. The results of these investigations are fed back into design development stage and continuously improve the products. Toyota Home, for example, focuses on designing smart houses and uses a modular system to construct these. This modular system is more adapted to customer needs and more flexible with its infill than usual houses. The Customization Culture ringi seido means that the decisions are non-hierarchical and informal made, so that information from customers and production are directly brought to management and product design (Figure 6a). To adapt more to the customer needs it is also necessary to involve services. Especially for older people it is more and more important to customize over inbuilt information platforms and networks by services like domestic aid or medical care. This includes also the integration of sensors for measuring vital signs or the connection to the PC and data platform (Figure 6b and 6c). This new services necessitate also new high-tech products able to act as service channel and high tech construction products necessitate new ways of construction which are linked to quality and precision production and assembly. Later on in our 7-DCI Diagram we will outline that interconnectivity of innovation dimensions clearly.
Figure 6a, 6b, 6c: Innovation by Customer Co-Creation. Left: Japanese prefab companies invite customers to perform test to improve buildings in a co-creation process. Middle: Toto integrates a multitude of electronics, sensors and actuators into toilets in order to deliver additional functions and in the future even household related services (right).
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4. REALIZING INNNOVATION IN CONSTRUCTION BY 7-DIMENSIONAL VIEW

Based on the research in tools and views developed and used in innovation science in general (section 2), and the analysis of the nature of innovation mechanisms in construction industry (section 3), we have started to develop our own comprehensive and construction specific view on innovation depicted by the 7-DCI Diagram (Figure 7). Through our background in industrialized architecture, automation and robotics in construction, we have always seen construction machinery and production technology as a key force for creating innovation. However, through our research in innovation methodology, we have learned that for the success of an innovation, often a multitude of changes and innovations subsequently or at once are necessary. Production technology can hardly be considered to be disconnected from materials, components, time, ecologic factors or product performance. In particular, this means, that production technology can cause, or force, change in all of those areas, and that i.e. a change on the material dimension or the ecologic dimension is linked to changes or innovations on the construction machinery/production level. Thus, for a practically oriented innovation deployment in construction, we have defined 7-dimensions as follows: Dimension 1: Construction Materials: referring to innovations in i.e., the development of ultra-strength concrete. Such a development might be linked to other innovations as for example robotics molding/material distribution and or a new design of components. Dimension 2: Construction Machinery/Production Technology: referring to incremental and disruptive innovations in the area of production technology used off-site or on-site. Improved robotic cranes or excavators might be seen as incremental short-term solutions. The use of exoskeletons, humanoid robots and automated construction sites as more radical and long-term innovations (disruptive innovations). Dimension 3: Construction Components: This dimension refers to the modular structure of a building. There are various ways to modularize construction products. Furthermore, components delivered to the site can introduce a low added value (low degree of complexity, no installations, etc. included) or high added value (high degree of complexity, equipped with finishing and installations. A quite innovative component states 3-dimensional units/space frames equipped with all finishing, installations and appliances. Those units are produced, for example, by Japanese companies as Sekisui Heim and Toyota Home fully on the production line. Dimension 4: Construction Time: This dimension refers to the time necessary for planning, set up of the site, construction and finishing. Changes in the timely setup or reductions of construction times are impossible to accomplish without changes in other dimensions. A very radical timely strategy (rapid construction) would necessitate radical solutions within almost all other levels. Dimension 5: Construction Ecology: This dimension refers to ecological factors related to the construction process itself or the construction product. In Japan, major construction firms are currently deploying automated deconstruction sites, which allow them to reduce construction time and recycle nearly all building materials. This states an example for innovation in this dimension, which is closely related to innovations in other dimensions.
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Dimension 6: Construction Product Performance: This dimension refers to innovations related to the construction products performance or services related to those products. Our environments become smarter and increasingly more sensors and actuators are embedded in our living environments enhancing performance and serviceability. However, new performance often demands also innovations, especially in the production and/or component dimension. Dimension 7: Construction Management: This dimension refers to innovation created on the managerial level. Management often can integrate innovations, while on the other hand it can be said that even small changes affect organization and thus the management dimension. In addition to these seven dimensions of construction innovation, we have defined two key cross-section forces that can act within or across the described dimensions: Force 1: Novelty Force: This force refers to the newness of a change to be introduced routine innovation, improvement innovation, radical innovation. Force 2: System Division Force: In section 2, we have introduced the system viewpoint on innovation. Our system division force refers to this viewpoint, but it also allows the possibility to apply the notion of systems and subsystems to all seven dimensions.
Figure 7: 7-DCI Diagram (Dimension Construction Innovation Diagram)
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5. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH

We have presented the current state or our IDS research and summarized it in form of the 7DCI Diagram. Aim of the research is to aid researchers and practitioners alike to identify and generate innovation mechanisms fast and efficiently. Future work includes the evaluation and refinement of the developed 7-DCI Diagram. To verify its practicability, functionality and architecture, we intend to conduct in depth case studies of innovative construction projects and try to verify if our 7-DCI Diagram is capable of explaining the innovation mechanisms in a sufficient way. Further, in order to test the practical applicability of our 7-DCI Diagram, we will apply it as the basis for concept, process and technology deployment within upcoming industry-university joint R&D projects. As part of our future work, we will investigate, if there are additional viewpoints or forces that have to be added to our framework.
REFERENCES
Backerra, H., Malorny, C., and Schwarz, W. (2002): Kreativittstechniken, 2. Auflage, Hanser Baldwin, C.Y., and Clark, K.B., 2000. Design Rules: Vol. 1 The Power of Modularity, Massachusetts Institute of Technologie, pp. 60 Bock, T., Linner, T., and Eibisch, N., 2011a. Vertical Shipyard: Technology Transfer for Automated Con- and Deconstruction. In: Proceedings of 28th International Symposium on Automation and Robotics in Construction (ISARC), June 2011, Seoul, Korea. Bock, T., Linner, T., and Miura, S., 2011b. Robotic High-Rise Construction of Pagoda Concept: innovative earthquake-proof Design for the Tokyo Sky Tree. In: Proceedings of CTBUH 2011 Cameron, E., and Green, M., 2009. Making Sense of Change Management: A Complete Guide to the Models, Tools and Techniques of Organizational Change, Kogan Page, London. Chesbrough, H., Vanhaverbeke, W., and West, J., 2008. Open Innovation Researching a new Paradigm. Oxford University Press, New York. Chesbrough H., 2011. Open Services Innovation: Rethinking Your Business to Grow and Compete in a New Era, John Wiley & Sons, Sussex, England. Christensen, C. M., Overdorf, M. and MacMillan, I., 2001. Harvard Business Review on Innovation. Boston: Harvard Business School Press. Fujimoto, T. 1999. The Evolution of a Manufacturing System at Toyota, Oxford University Hartschen, M., Scherer, J., and Brgger, C., 2006. Innovations management. Gabal Verlag GnbH, Offenbach. Hayes, J., 2010. Theory and Practice of Change Management. Palgrave Macmillan; Third Edition . Howe, J., 2009. Why the Power of the Crowd Is Driving the Future of Business. Linner, T., and Bock, T., 2010. From Space System Engineering to Earth System Engineering: A new Method for Developing Technologies being compatible with Society, Ecology and Economy. FISC 2010 First International Conference on Sustainability and the Future, Cairo. Linner, T., and Bock, T., 2012. Evolution of large-scale Industrialization and Service: Innovation in Japanese Prefabrication Industry. Journal of Construction Innovation: Information, Process, Management, Vol. 12 No. 2, pp. 156178. Piller, F. (2006) Mass Customization Ein wettbewerbsstrategisches Konzept im Informationszeitalter. 4th ed. Wiesbaden: Deutscher Universittsverlag
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Reichwald, R., and Piller, F. T., 2009. Interactive Value Creation, Gabler Tidd, J., and Bessant, J., 2009. Managing Innovation Integrating Technological, Market and Organizational Change, John Wiley & Sons, Sussex, England. Tapscott, D., and Williams, A. D., 2010. Macrowikinomics Rebooting Business and the World, Portfolio Penguine. Figure 1, Figure 7: Chair for Building Realization and Robotics; Figure 2a: Airbus, Toulouse; 2b: Chair for Building Realization and Robotics Figure 3b: Sekisui House, Japan; 3c: Chair for Building Realization and Robotics Figure 4a: Kansas Historical Society. http://www.kshs.org/,visited: 29.04.2012; 4b: Dymaxion House Prototype, Oldtwon Wichita. http://www.oldtownwichita.com/, visited: 29.04.2012 Figure 5a, 5b, 5c: Pictures by Dr. Yusuke Yamazaki, Shimizu Institute of Technology Figure 6a: Sekisui Heim; 6b: Chair for Building Realization and Robotics; 6c: Sophia mit P.S.
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THEN AND NOW: COST CALCULATION OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN THE 20TH AND 21ST CENTURY
Orsolya Bokor Szent Istvn University, Ybl Mikls Faculty of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Budapest, Hungary, bokor.orsolya@ybl.szie.hu Tams Kocsis Szent Istvn University, Ybl Mikls Faculty of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Budapest, Hungary, kocsis.tamas@ybl.szie.hu
Abstract Money plays a key role in every area of our lives, construction industry is no exception. The calculation of the construction costs was significant even in the ancient times. In Hungary the first book on how a proper budget should look like and what it has to contain was published as early as the beginning of the 19th century. Since then numerous articles and books have been printed on the subject. The paper would like to show how cost calculation changed over time. It attempts to shed light on the similarities and differences of cost estimation and project financing practice in the 20th and 21st centuries through examples from both centuries. The paper describes these building projects in the actual economic environment, presents the cost calculation models used, and discusses the challenges that were faced. Keywords: construction costs, cost calculation, history, project financing, project management.
1. INTRODUCTION
Looking at how things were done in the past could be really useful, because lessons could be learnt from past experience. This paper attempts to show how cost calculation changed over time. First comes a short historic overview, where a few memorable examples are described from different eras, to demonstrate how cost estimation developed. The last century of its improvement is discussed in a more detailed way. Sample cases (construction of educational institutions) have been chosen, they are introduced together with the economic and social environment they were in.
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2. HISTORIC OVERVIEW
2.1. Ancient Times There are not many written records from this era that have survived. A very interesting fact from as early as the 18th century BC is that Hammurabi, the Babylonian king, included the remuneration of the masterbuilders in his Code published on a stone stele. (Johns, 1904) 228. If a builder has built a house for man, and finished it, he shall pay him a fee of two shekels of silver, for each SAR built on. (Johns, 1904) The responsibilities of the masterbuilders and the consequences of malpractice are also described. The wages of different trades e.g. carpenters, masons were also regulated. Unfortunately, the exact amounts are illegible now. (Johns, 1904) Marcus Vitruvius Pollio lived in the 1st century BC in Rome, worked as architect and engineer. In his treatise called De Architectura he summarized all there was to know about architecture. In the last volume, he writes about the significance of cost estimation. He brings a Greek example to prove his point. He mentions that in Ephesus, when an architect undertakes a public work project, he has to estimate the costs rather precisely, because, in case the cost overrun is more than 25%, they have to pay the remaining sum required to finish the project. The architects own property served as security. In Vitruviuss opinion, it is an example that should be followed in Rome as well, and not only in case of public projects. Architects ought not to leave their clients broken in fortune and in spirit. (Vitruvius, 1st cent. BC)
2.2. Middle Ages Standardization has a long tradition in China. The first regulation on construction Yingshan Ling (National Building Law) was introduced by the Tang dynasty (7th10th centuries). Unfortunately only fragments of this have survived. In the 11th century, Wang Anshi initiated several reforms. One of them was the abolishment of the corve, which meant that from then on the laborers would be paid for their services. This law together with the flourishing economy and the development of technology truly propelled the construction industry. In order for the materials used and work performed to be better controlled, and consequently the construction costs as well, the building elements and work processes had to be standardized. The compilation of the Yingzao Fashi started in 1072, and was published in 1103. This edition consisted of 34 volumes containing, for example, material and labor norms, and gave an estimate of the labor costs depending on trade, season etc. (Chong, 2008) The royal building workshops, which were very similar to the lodges, played an important role in Hungary. The constructions ordered by Sigismund and Matthias in the 15th century
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were not only significant on a domestic, but also on a European level. In spite of the fact that Sigismund was constantly traveling, the building of two royal castles Buda and Visegrd started during his reign. He hired artisans himself. (Mlyusz, 1984) The constructions of the castles in Buda and Bratislava were very similar. The specialty of the organization was that the economic-administrative and the technical-artistic management were separated. The economic-administrative office (Bauamt), which had a well-defined hierarchy, dealt with hiring laborers, procuring materials, controlling the use of them and settling the accounts with the king. In 1427 Sigismund appointed Gyrgy Rozgonyi and his brother, Istvn as directors. They had to know all incomes and expenses precisely. The king paid based on the invoices handed in to him. An account of the latter from 1434 has survived. The scribe of Gyrgy Rozgonyi made weekly records of the wages of the laborers and the most important materials used for 28 weeks, from March 8 till October 16. Concrete administrative issues were dealt with by the sollicitator laborum, Jnos Bernyi Kakas. Other positions were the clerk, the dicator, the sollicitator, the apprentices and the guard. (Szcs, 1958) The wages were determined according to the wage system in Bratislava, which was the same as in Vienna. The wages in the winter were 20% lower than in the summer due to the shorter working days. The survived accounts add up to about 4228 golden forints. After adding the presumable costs of the works performed in the winter, the sum is about 78008000 golden forints for 1434, which is a significant amount of money. (Szcs, 1958) The castle and church constructions ordered by the noblemen close to the king Kanizsai family, Mikls Garai and Pipo Ozorai and the construction of the castles in Visegrd and Tata ordered by King Matthias went down in a very similar manner.
2.3. Modern Era first half of the 19th century Pl Beregszszi (17901865) was an engineer, who wrote many books on different technical topics, such as architecture and drawings. He was a professor at the drawing school in Debrecen from 1819. His first book, in which he wrote about how to calculate the costs of building constructions, was published January 15, 1819. The book consists of three large sections. The first one introduces the units of measurement of length, area and volume and how they should be calculated with. Three copperplates summarize them. The second part discusses how the various structural elements of the building should be expressed in quantities. The third section contains the material and labor norms that can be taken into consideration when estimating the costs. For example, for the dry tiling of 38 square feet of roof 150 roof tiles (taking into account the size and the amount that goes to waste), 1.5 cubic feet of slaked lime, 3 cubic feet of sand, 1/4 day of masons and 1/3 day of laborers work are needed. (Beregszszi, 1819)
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In addition, an example for calculating the costs of a three-story building is also shown. The floor plans and cross-sections can be found on the fourth copperplate belonging to the book. According to the sample budget, the masonry and carpentry works are broken down into material and labor costs for every item, in case of the items of other (joinery, metal, blacksmithery, glazier etc.) works material and labor prices do not appear separately. The last chapter of the example is the summary sheet. (Beregszszi, 1819) Beregszszi (1819) states that many factors have to be taken into consideration when the costs are estimated: the geotechnical properties of the soil, the terrain, whether the excavated earth will be used later, whether the earth should be reinforced, the amount and type of necessary materials, the price and dealer of them, the amount and type of necessary labor, their standard rates, whether the equipment, laborers and materials should be provided by the masterbuilders. Beregszszi believes that the costs have to be defined tightly, meaning that the masterbuilders should not make low bids in order to ensure getting the job. They cannot trust that even if the price of the building would escalate, the owner would settle the invoice anyway. When the contractor calculates the price based on his method, he has to add ca. 10% to the sum in order to cover unforeseeable costs as well. (Beregszszi, 1819)
3. 20TH CENTURY
3.1. Hungary after the AustroHungarian Compromise In order for us to better understand our examples from the 20th century, the events of the second half of the 19th century have to be summarized. The AustroHungarian Compromise signed in 1867 determined Hungarys economic and social situation for the next five decades. The countrys economy was soaring in these years; however, the social and political systems were not able to improve in that rate. In the middle of the 19th century, Hungary was still a feudal state; it was around that time when the first signs of capitalism appeared. In the next three decades, Hungary became a modern, European state. For this to happen, it needed foreign capital and experts, but soon the contribution of these were higher than their interests, so their share in new investments gradually decreased. Due to numerous public projects and priceless Hungarian inventions, the industrial revolution could finally take place in the 1880s. One of the industrial branches that benefited the most from the thriving economy, while also being an important reason for it, was railway construction. Thousand kilometers of railroads were built. This also caused the development of other branches related to it, such as bridge constructions and postal services. (Zvodszky, 2003) Urbanization was also a byproduct of the industrial revolution. The economic changes resulted in social ones. New layers appeared in society. In 1873, Buda, Pest and buda were
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united, and Budapest was established. By the turn of the century, it had almost a million inhabitants. 3.2. Construction of educational institutions As mentioned before, not only capital was needed for the economy to flourish, but also knowledge. Consequently, the entire education system had to be reformed. The idea of proper education originated from Istvn Szchenyi, later every minister of religious affairs and public education regarded the matter as a significant issue. In 1868 Jzsef Etvs introduced compulsory education until the age of 12 in order to attempt to eliminate illiteracy, and improved the whole education system. Higher education was also reorganized. (Zvodszky, 2003) Owing to the need for more experts, there were more and more students at these institutions, for example, at the predecessors of our faculty (Ybl Mikls Faculty of Architecture and Civil Engineering, YBL) and the Budapest University of Technology and Economics (BUTE). In addition, due to the industrial revolution, there were more and more departments as well. This led to the constant problem of outgrowing the buildings these schools were provided with. (Kolbenheyer, 1902) (Hauszmann, 1909) Then came a time when they very much needed a building designed especially for construction education purposes, however, this was also a time of economic crisis. According to an article published in 1902 on the economic situation of Hungary, the recession had severe effects on the construction industry and all branches related to it. It started in the capital, where private projects decreased from several hundreds to a couple of dozens per year, and in case of public projects the payoffs came really late. In Western countries, the recession was not as serious as in Hungary, because of Hungarys newly-developed and fragile economy and political crisis. Despite all this and due to some determined ministers, who believed in the importance of education, the universities got their own buildings. The predecessor of our faculty had difficulties even with finding the right place. Budapest was asked to offer sites; however, none of them were appropriate for the function. Later the cheapest private plot was chosen. (This is the place, where the faculty is now.) The drawings and the construction budget were made in a couple of weeks by Gyula Kolbenheyer, the director of the school, and Adorjn H. Gal. The construction started in September 1900 and ended a year later. Hungarian construction materials were used and Hungarian workers were employed. The main contractor was Bla Benedek, who had the lowest bid. The costs of construction grouped according to trade packages can be seen on Figure 1. The total cost was 46.000 koronas less than estimated. (Kolbenheyer, 1902)
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Figure 1: Construction costs of the building of the Ybl Mikls Faculty (Kolbenheyer, 1902)
3.3. Creating the construction budget Adorjn H. Gal was the one who taught the subject on the construction budget 4 hours per week for the third-year students. The literature used was a German book, the sixth volume of Heinrich Dieseners Praktische Unterrichtsbcher fr Bautechniker. Heinrich Diesener was an architect and the director of the building school in Oldenburg. His book series, Praktische Unterrichtsbcher fr Bautechniker, was published at the end of the 19th century. The sixth volume deals with construction costs. The Hungarian edition was translated by Igncz Ritter and was published in 1899. It also contained the regulations issued by the Hungarian Society of Engineers and Architects. According to Diesener (1899), a list of the necessary materials together with their prices and the costs of labor are needed in order to make the budget. Having floor plans, elevations, cross-sections and large-scale drawings of the special structures or decorative elements at disposal are essential to precise calculations. There should also be a separate item for the unforeseeable costs, which would cover all expenses resulting from unexpected situations during construction. This amount has to be expressed as a percentage of the total cost. In case of new buildings, it could be around 5%, while in case of renovations, restorations it could be equal to 10%. Diesener believes that it is better to determine a somewhat greater total sum, because everyone would be pleased, if it cost less in the end. Cost estimations could be done based on the empirical price of one floor m2 of the given building type. The book contains the form in which the different materials are sold and how the amount of labor could be surveyed and calculated. (Diesener, 1899)
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Diesener (1899) recommends that the budget (for which he provides a sample at the end of the book) should have 21 chapters, starting with the earthworks, going on to masonry, carpentry, sheet metal, joinery works and ending with miscellaneous works. In case of the second (Artificial Reinforcement of Soil), third (Masonry Works) and fifth (Carpentry Works) chapters the costs of materials and labor have to be given separately, while in case of all other items the prices of them can be added up. Material prices have to include the cost of transportation as well. Miscellaneous works can involve various items which do not fit into the previous chapters, for example, installation of building services and bells. In addition, the costs of construction, for example, the rent of necessary equipment, the costs of establishing a construction office, plus the overheads, the price of cleaning and the unforeseeable costs mentioned before could also appear here. The cost of site supervision can also belong here but it could be a separate item as well. The costs of making the plans and the budget should appear as well. These are either determined based on the fees defined by the Hungarian Society of Engineers and Architects or the parties agree on a fixed price. (Diesener, 1899) The budget can be divided into three main parts: the calculation of the quantities, the materials needed and finally, the costs. In case of smaller projects, these do not necessarily appear separately. The first section is especially important in case of those items whose quantities cannot be determined directly from the plans. The second is valid for masonry, carpentry works and roof tiling. The text of each item should clearly indicate how it has to be carried out and what exactly the price includes. (Diesener, 1899)
3.4. Project financing The projects (construction of educational institutions) mentioned before were all state-funded. In case of the buildings of the Budapest University of Technology and Economics, the 1897/XXV. law stated that 1.2 million koronas had to be allocated for obtaining the sites, and that the Ministry of Religious affairs and Public Education had to introduce the drawings and the cost estimations to the Parliament. (1000 v trvnyei, 2003) The 1902/XVII. law said that 10 million koronas had to cover the construction costs and the entire equipment, and that this amount had to be taken from the budget of the Ministry. The start (1902) and the finish (1911) of the project were also given. In brief, the State was financing the construction of the new university campus through the Ministry. (1000 v trvnyei, 2003) Due to the fact that the price of materials and the wages increased by 25%, the allocated was sum was not enough. (Seidl, 1997)
3.5. Hungarian Society of Engineers and Architects The industrial revolution also encouraged the appearance of scientific societies and journals. A good example is the Hungarian Society of Engineers and Architects, which was founded in 1867, and launched two periodicals: Construction Industry and Bulletin of Hungarian Society
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of Engineers and Architects. The latter published several papers on how construction costs had to be properly calculated.
4. SOCIALISM
The nationalizations in 1949 induced great changes in the construction industry and thus in the practice of making construction budgets as well. The three- and five-year plans made huge demands on the construction industry. Institutions were founded, whose tasks involved determining the budget items with the material and labor norms and the prices. The first computer programs aiding the creation of the construction budget appeared in the 1970s. Company norm systems were also established around this time. Since 1988 the state has had no say in the prices, they have to be negotiated by the parties.
5. CHALLENGES OF TODAYS COST CALCULATION AND FINANCING OPPORTUNITIES OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

5.1 Hungarian construction projects in the current economic situation Generally, it could be stated that construction industry does not fill the part of the leading sector of modern economies. However, it is considered to be one of the most important productive sectors. This statement is not only true for developed European countries, but also for Hungary, despite the fact that todays market environment and economic crisis attempt to overwrite these facts. Construction industry plays the role of a catalyst in a countrys economy; let it be on a developing or declining economic course. If the economy is flourishing, construction industry performs well too. In case of a recession, there is a lack of money that can be invested in construction projects. Furthermore, the fact that political decisions have a great influence on the rank of construction industry among the sectors cannot be ignored either, since statistical indices can be improved by a significant volume of infrastructure projects. Figure 2 shows some statistical data to support the above.
Figure 2: Statistical data concerning the neighboring EU members from 2011, (own construction) (KSH, 2012a)
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The diagram above shows that the situation of the Hungarian construction industry is the worst among the other sectors and compared to other countries, therefore we can talk about a much weaker performance, in case of this branch. This point could be further supported by the graph of Figure 3.
Figure 3: Statistical data from the 19902010 period (own construction) (KSH, 2012a)
The diagram of Figure 4 shows that the volume of construction projects has been continuously decreasing since 2005, except for a short period between 2007 and 2008. In the past five years, it dropped by almost 30%, moreover, the quantity of private sector construction projects has decreased by nearly 50% since 2003. These unfavorable conditions affect the cost calculation examined in this paper. Between 1996 and 2006 Hungarian construction companies did not perform detailed and precise prime cost calculations, and control during the entire realization process, because there was a great demand for their services; larger companies could even pick the projects they wanted. Since the crisis began, this has changed entirely, although it was not only due to the crisis, but also owing to the strengthening competitiveness of the neighboring countries, which was mostly responsible for the decrease between 2005 and 2007. Basically the market started to tighten, and this had an impact on prices. In 2011 prices increased by 2.2% compared to the previous year, however, the increase in the building construction sector was smaller, 1.4%. The prices in case of infrastructure projects rose by a greater amount. However, it was still less than the 3.9%, in case of consumer prices, and 4.2%, in case of industrial prices. (KSH, 2012b) This could be explained by two things. Ad 1: increase in costs (especially of construction materials and fuel), ad 2: decrease in demand. To sum up the above, it could be stated that the Hungarian construction industry is in a difficult situation, consequently, precise prime cost and margin calculations, high awareness of the direct and indirect costs are essential for survival.
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4.2 Price calculation and determining the contracted prices Due to the tough situation of the construction industry, stakeholders providing money have become even more important. There are many different ways of putting together a bid, all of which are the improved and modified versions of earlier systems. There are norm systems, cost estimating programs and manuals. These are available to the construction industry actors in return for a certain amount. They could be grouped in the following way: Norm databases, budget items: Building-type norm systems (norms for over- and underground constructions, for new and reconstruction projects, for building services etc.) Company norm systems (Large companies have been maintaining and improving their own database since the 1970s.) Sector norm systems (for larger branches, for example, railway construction) The above-mentioned norm databases are usually either a separate module of an application, or a built-in part of it. In case of company norms, spreadsheet applications are used instead of ERP (Enterprise Resources Planning) systems in Hungary. Manuals for cost estimations and calculations are also available. With the help of these the costs of the main tasks can be estimated, and the ratio of them could be determined. However, they are not suitable for performing detailed and precise cost calculations for huge budgets with many items. The above-mentioned databases are generally created by market participants, but some of them are published by professional organizations, such as the Hungarian Chamber of Engineers. Unfortunately, the market is not inclined to accept the standpoint, suggestions and recommendations of these organizations. Due to the fact that there are no engineer prices determined by the state, which could serve as the basis of cost calculations, free competition leads to irrational prices. In the long run, state regulations need to be introduced for determining the levels of construction projects and labor costs. There are several successful European examples. For instance, Germany established wage categories based on sectors, or there is a free, centrally maintained norm database in Spain. These measures can facilitate the market becoming whiter and the higher quality of performance. Another important area would be the creation of a framework for contractual relationships. The practice developed and spread in Hungary is not something worth following. Owning money results in such great power that the enterprise sector undertakes a project even if it comes with huge risks in order to survive. The combination of contracts based on flat fees and itemized budgets practically makes the contractor take all risks, who then passes these on to the subcontractors. The reason for this is the inadequate regulation of the preparation, design and permit acquiring processes of the construction projects, which would definitely require a more efficient involvement of the state.
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4.3 Financing options of construction projects The financing of construction project have also undergone major transformations. Until the beginning of 2000s the typical forms were subsidized loan schemes and commercial loans, besides private capital. Later, state sources of financing started to disappear, and the socalled PPP (Public Private Partnership) schemes and EU supported projects became widespread. These changes created new challenges to be faced by the actors (main contractors, construction managers etc.) of the construction industry. For instance, in case of PPP projects complex return and investment calculations had to be performed for the operational phase, which had not been typical before. Figure 4 shows the distribution of operational costs of an educational institution for 20 years.
Figure 4: Distribution of operational costs of an educational institution for 20 years
Basically, contractors have to be prepared for undertaking operational tasks, efficient management of emerging demands and performing financial operations, as well. Unfortunately, in the last decade, there have been a lot of unsuccessful PPP projects, including educational and healthcare institutions and infrastructure projects. Problems grew even bigger, if there was EU involvement. When a project is financed from EU sources as well, huge emphasis has to be put on the proper performance of administrative tasks. If a project failed to meet the requirements, funding was stopped, or sometimes even the grant had to be paid back. By looking at the last decade, it could be stated that the construction industry has undergone many changes. Owing to the unstable capital flow, changing financing conditions and the economic crisis, the situation does not look promising. The circumstances call for a more effective, stronger and clearer involvement of both the construction and the state sectors,
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because in the coming years the most significant sources are going to be related to EU supported projects.
6. SOME INTERESTING DATA RELATED TO THE CASE STUDIES

YBL BUILDING A ~5600 m2 4 200 28 m2 19001901 19001901 state-funded BUTE BUILDING K ~50000 m2 4 1700 29 m2 19031909 18971911 state-funded BUTE BUILDING Q 33400 m2 8 3600 9 m2 20082010 20072010 PPP
gross floor area number of levels number of students area/student duration of const. project duration financing
Figure 6: Data related to case studies (own construction)(Kolbenheyer, 1902) (Hauszmann, 1909) (Hrosz Zrt., 2009)
Figure 6 summarizes some data about the sample projects. In case of Building Q the duration of construction is slightly shorter with respect to the floor area; this could be easily explained by the fact that technology has developed a great deal in the last century. In case of Building K, the project duration includes the construction of all buildings on the new university campus, hence the long duration. Furthermore, problems occurred when obtaining the plots. The relatively short duration of the construction of Building A was owing to the fact that they did not have much time; the fall semester had to start on time. It could be clearly seen from the data although our sample is not representative that the floor area student ratio is significantly greater, in case of the schools from the last century. According to Kolbenheyer (1902), it was a very important factor when choosing the site for the school that there had to be enough space. He believed that after being cramped in flats used as school, students deserved nice, light, spacious classrooms. Unfortunately, the rate of the expansion of the building could not follow the rate of the increase in the number of students. With todays numbers Kolbenheyers idea is unimaginable.
7. CONCLUSION
Parallel to economic, political and social changes, construction projects have to meet changing requirements. Based on the cost calculation models and project financing types, it could be concluded that regardless of the time or type of funding, the same logic has to be followed when calculating the costs. The importance of preparation, continuous tracking and creating a strong legal framework are essential.
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Our examples show that although times have changed since the beginning of the 20th century, the situations and projects are surprisingly similar, the essence is the same.
REFERENCES
Beregszszi, P., 1819. Az pts tudomnnya azon rsze, melyben az ptsre teend kltsgek szmbavevse addik el. Debrecen: s.n. Chong, K. H., 2008. Representation of Architecture in Jiehua and Yingzao Fashi: Cognitive Studies on Graphical Representation of Geometric Space. PhD. National University of Singapore. CompLex Kiad Kft., 2003. 1000 v trvnyei. [online] Available at: <http://www.1000ev.hu/> [Accessed 18 June 2012] Diesener, H., 1899. Kltsgvetstan. Translated by: Ritter Igncz, 1899. Budapest: Krausz Henrik Knyvkereskedse. E., 1902. Kzgazdasgi llapotunk 1901-ben. Magyar Mrnk s ptsz Egylet Kzlnye, 36(10), pp.439443. Hauszmann, A., 1909. A kirlyi Jzsef-megyetem j otthona. Magyar Mrnk s ptsz Egylet Kzlnye, 43(12), pp.265268. Hrosz ZRt., 2009. Szerkezetksz a BME Q1 plete. [online] Available at: <http://www.heroszzrt.hu/hirek/cikk_19.html> [Accessed 20 June 2012] Johns, C. H. W., 1904. Babylonian and Assyrian Laws, Contracts and Letters. New York: Charles Scribner's Sons Kolbenheyer, Gy., 1902. A Budapesti M. Kir. llami Fels(pt) Ipariskola rtestje Az 1901/1902. iskolai vrl. Budapest: Budapesti M. Kir. llami Fels(pt) Ipariskola. Kzponti Statisztikai Hivatal, 2012a. Kzponti Statisztikai Hivatal. [online] Available at: < http://www.ksh.hu/> [Accessed 12 June 2012] Kzponti Statisztikai Hivatal, 2012b. Jelents az ptipar 2011. vi teljestmnyrl. [online] Available at: < http://www.ksh.hu/docs/hun/xftp/idoszaki/jelepit/jelepit11.pdf> [Accessed 12 June 2012] Mlyusz E., 1984. Zsigmond kirly uralma Magyarorszgon. Gyomaendrd: Gondolat. Seidl, A., 1997. Hauszmann Alajos naplja. ptsz a szzadforduln. Budapest: Gondolat. Szcs, J., 1958. A kzpkori ptszet munkaszervezetnek krdshez. In: Gerevich, L. , ed. 1958. Budapest Rgisgei: a Budapesti Trtneti Mzeum 18. vknyve, Budapest: Kpzmvszeti Alap. Vitruvius, P. M., 1st century BC. The Ten Books on Architecture. Translated by: Morris Hickey Morgan PhD, 1914. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Zvodszky, G., 2003. Trtnelem III. Budapest: Nemzeti Tanknyvkiad.
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LABORATORY TESTS AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF CORNSTALK INSULATION BLOCKS

David Bozsaky Szchenyi Istvn University, Gyr, Hungary, bozsaky@gmail.com
Abstract The spread of eco-architecture is getting intensive nowadays because of environmental and economical reasons. A new era started with the birth of sustainable architecture that resulted in renewable energy utilization and use of eco building materials. That is why thermal insulation of buildings has become especially important in the 21st century. Eco building materials are also very popular today. A new kind of thermal insulation material was tested in the Research Laboratory of Building Materials and Building Physics at Szchenyi Istvn University (Gyr, Hungary) produced from chopped cornstalk and synthetic resin. This cornstalk insulation block was first produced by a Hungarian inventor in 2008. During several tests the main physical, mechanical and building physical parameters (density, dimensional stability, water absorption, compressive, tensile and flexural strength, thermal conductivity, dynamic stiffness) of this new kind of building insulation material were determined. The measurement results were analyzed and compared with the same parameters of conventional thermal insulating materials. After summarizing the results, the relation between density, mechanical strength, thermal and sound insulation capacity was also analyzed. Keywords: building material, cornstalk, thermal insulation
1. INTRODUCTION
The spread of eco-architecture is getting intensive nowadays because of environmental and economical reasons. A new era started with the birth of sustainable architecture that resulted in renewable energy utilization and use of eco building materials. This is why thermal insulation of buildings has become especially important in the 21st century. Eco building materials are also very popular today.
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2. THE IDEA OF CORNSTALK INSULATING BLOCKS

The idea of this new kind of insulating blocks (Figure 1) came from a Hungarian inventor in 2008. In order to utilize agricultural waste products he patented a method that was suitable for creating blocks from cornstalk. The cornstalk was chopped into small pieces with a special disintegrator and then this aggregation was mixed with its binder. That was synthetic resin. Then the blend was placed into 30x30x60 cm steel moulds and with a compressive force of 40 kN cornstalk blocks were made. It is efficient if the fresh pressed cornstalk blocks are given enough drying time so after this procedure they were placed in a roofed but naturally ventilated store-house. After a few days the blocks were dry enough [8].
Figure 1: The cornstalk insulation block [8]
2. LABORATORY TESTS AND RESULTS

In the Research Laboratory of Building Materials and Building Physics at Szchenyi Istvn University (Gyr, Hungary) plenty of laboratory tests were made with this new kind of thermal insulation material in 20092010 [1][2][4][5]. To get reliable, calculable and comparable measurement results special standards were needed. Unfortunately there are no regulations about cornstalk insulation blocks. However there are two similar, natural, organic materials cork and wood wool which have wellelaborated and widely accepted standards. They contain the main executable test of these materials (density, dimensional stability, water absorption, mechanical strength, thermal conductivity, dynamic stiffness, etc.) and suggest additional standards (mainly European standards) for the special laboratory tests. Furthermore they prescribe the environmental circumstances of experiments and determine the minimum quantity of samples that is necessary. These standards provided a strong basis for the laboratory tests [4][5].
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3.1. Density The density of thermal insulation materials is determinable on basis of MSZ EN 1602 standard. Because of the wrong dimensional accuracy of cornstalk blocks resulted by the mainly manual fabrication more measurement of width, length and thickness was taken than the regulation prescribed. At first the density of cornstalk insulation blocks was determined in natural condition with water content of 614 m/m %. This natural water content means the residual water content after drying the samples to weight-balanced condition at 23C and 50% relative humidity. Later the samples were placed in a dryer case and left there for 48 hours at 70C and 50% relative humidity. After that the density was determined again in air-dry condition. Summarizing the results the density of cornstalk insulation blocks was 120,44327,29 kg/m3 with an average density of 199,6 kg/m3 that was increased in air-dry condition to 117,22215,58 kg/m3 with an average density of 165,39 kg/m3. These values were comparable with the density of the common thermal insulation materials. As in Table 1 is visible the density of cornstalk insulation blocks is very close to the density of cork, fiberboard, reed, foam glass and rock wool. It is heavier than straw bale, cellulose insulation, polystyrene (EPS, XPS), polyurethane and fiberglass and lighter than wood wool, expanded perlite and clay. Material Rock wool Fiberglass Foam glass EPS XPS PUR Expanded perlite Expanded clay Cork Wood wool Fiberboard Straw bale Cellulose insulation Cornstalk blocks Density in air-dry condition (kg/m3) 20200 15150 115220 1030 2545 30100 90490 260500 100220 350600 30270 80120 3080 117215
Table 1: The density of thermal insulation materials [6][7][9]
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3.1. Dimensional stability There are two different standards about the laboratory tests of dimensional stability. MSZ EN 1603 standard deals with the determination of dimensional stability under normal laboratory circumstances (23C, 50% relative humidity) and MSZ EN 1604 standard includes the monitoring of dimensional stability under extreme conditions (48 hours at 70C) [5]. Dimensional stability under normal circumstances (MSZ EN 1603) a b v <0,5% <0,5% <0,5% <0,5% <1% <1 mm <1mm 0,13%, 0,08%, 0,49%, 0,28 mm 0,31 mm 0,32 mm Dimensional stability under extreme conditions (MSZ EN 1604) a b v <1% <1% <1% <13%* <13%* <13%* <5% <5% <5% <15%* <15%* <15%* <1% <1% <1% <0,5% <0,5% <1% <0,5% <0,5% <3% 1,19% 1,24% 3,51%
Material
Mineral wool EPS XPS PUR Fiberboard Cork Wood wool Cornstalk blocks
*: according to the quality class

Table 2: The dimensional stability of cornstalk insulation blocks in comparison with the requirements of the standards about common thermal insulation materials
Focusing on the changes in length (a), width (b) and thickness (v) the dimensional stability of cornstalk insulating blocks was comparable with the requirements of standards about the common thermal insulation materials (Table 2). As it is noticeable in Table 1, the dimensional stability of cornstalk insulation blocks under normal laboratory circumstances suits the specifications relating to the common thermal insulation materials. Under extreme conditions the measurement results were not as good as expected. The dimensional stability of cornstalk insulation blocks was only better than the requirements of plastic foams [5].
3.3. Water absorption Water absorption is determinable on basis of MSZ EN 12087 standard with 28 days full dipping and on basis of MSZ EN 1609 standard with 24 hours particular dipping. Contrary to MSZ EN 12087 only the 24 hours of water absorption was determined because it was proved that this time is enough for cornstalk insulating blocks to become saturated. Compared with the traditional insulating materials (Table 3) it is considered that the water absorption of cornstalk insulation blocks is much higher. However we must add that in case of natural materials standards do not form requirements about the examination of water absorption with 28 days full dipping [5].
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Water absorption with 24 hours particular dipping is more dominant for natural materials. As we can see in Table 3 the 4,82 kg/m2 water absorption of cornstalk insulating blocks seems to be a little bit high, but it is very close to the values of similar organic materials like wood wool, straw bale and hemp and much lower than the water absorption of sheep wool, cotton and cellulose insulation. Material Water absorption full dipping 24 hours particular dipping (V/V %) (kg/m2) 1, or 3** 0 0 15 <0,7 1,53 15 78 <0,5 <5 12 4,2 4,3 30* 1530 33* 12 1213 37, or 186* 4,82
Rock wool and fiberglass Foam glass EPS XPS PUR Expanded perlite Expanded clay Cork Wood wool Fiberboard Hemp Straw bale Cellulose insulation Sheep wool Cotton Cornstalk blocks *: m/m % **: after 28 days
Table 3: The water absorption of thermal insulation materials [6][7][9]
3.4. Mechanical properties Through laboratory tests of mechanical properties the compressive, tensile and bending strength of cornstalk insulation blocks was determined. The samples were prepared according to the instructions of standards and all tests were carried out under normal laboratory circumstances (23C, 50% relative humidity).
3.4.1. Compressive strength On basis of MSZ EN 826 the compressive strength of the cornstalk insulation blocks was measured (it is really the compressive stress after 10% relative deflection). Using 37 samples
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the compressive strength of cornstalk insulation blocks was defined to be 17193 kPa with an average of 88,86 kPa. This value is better than the compressive strength of rock wool and fiberglass and very similar to the same parameters of natural materials like cork, fiberboard and wood wool (Table 4) [5]. Material Rock wool Fiberglass Foam glass EPS XPS PUR Phenolic foam Expanded perlite Vacuum insulation Cork Wood wool Fiberboard Coconut fiber Cellulose insulation Cornstalk blocks Compressive strength (kPa) 1580 1580 5001700 30300 200700 1001000 100150 150300 45120 100200 30200 40200 10 2,5 17193
Table 4: The compressing strength of thermal insulation materials [6][7][9]
3.4.2. Tensile strength The tensile strength of cornstalk insulation blocks was determined using MSZ EN 1607 standard. Knowing the anisotropic feature of cellulose-basis materials (wood) it was expected that the mechanical properties of cornstalk insulation blocks are depending on the run of grains (correctly the way of pressure during the fabrication). This is why tensile strength was determined in the way of pressure and across the pressure. 30 samples were taken from 5 cornstalk blocks with different density and the tensile strength was defined to be 2,433,7 kPa in the way of pressure and 52295 kPa across it. Results confirmed that the tensile strength of cornstalk insulation blocks is equaled or especially the tensile strength across the way of pressure much better than the natural materials and it is very close to the tensile strength of artificial materials (Table 5) [5]. Material Rock wool Fiberglass Foam glass Tensile strength (kPa) 520 3,5 180480
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EPS XPS PUR Cork Wood wool Fiberboard Hemp Cornstalk blocks
100300 200500 40 3050 2,550 2,550 180 2,433,7, or 52295
Table 5: The tensile strength of thermal insulation materials [6][7][9]
3.4.2. Bending strength The bending strength of cornstalk insulation blocks was tested with the help of MSZ EN 12089 standard. 5 samples of cornstalk blocks were taken with different density and they were broken with concentrated force as a beam with two supports. Summarizing the results the bending strength of cornstalk insulation blocks was calculated to be 171391 kPa with an average bending strength of 247 kPa. Comparing with the common thermal insulation materials the bending strength of cornstalk blocks was corresponded to fiberboard, cork and polystyrene (XPS, EPS) and it was very close to PUR and wood wool (Table 6) [5]. Material Foam glass EPS XPS PUR Cork Wood wool Fiberboard Cornstalk blocks Bending strength (kPa) 450500 50150 100300 250500 140200 3001000 120200 171391
Table 6: The bending strength of thermal insulation materials [6][7][9]
3.5. Thermal conductivity At first the samples with natural moisture content (614% m/m) were tested with a Taurus TCA 300 heat flow meter. Thermal conductivity was measured at 10C, 20C and 30C. Later the samples were placed in a dryer case and left there for 48 hours at 70C and 50% relative humidity and after this procedure thermal conductivity was determined again in air-dry condition [1][2][4][5].
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Results demonstrated that the thermal conductivity of cornstalk blocks at 10C was 0,0477 0,0718 W/mK with natural moisture content and the average thermal conductivity was calculated to be 0,0562 W/mK. The thermal conductivity in air-dry condition was 0,0455 0,0555 W/mK with an average thermal conductivity of 0,0512 W/mK. It means a 7% better thermal insulation quality [1][4][5]. Compared with the traditional thermal insulation materials it is ascertainable that the thermal insulation quality of cornstalk blocks in air-dry condition is commensurable with their thermal conductivity. Cornstalk insulating blocks are competitive with other natural thermal insulation materials (wood wool, straw bale, cork, etc.) and their thermal conductivity is nearly as low as the thermal conductivity of traditional, artificial materials like plastic foams and mineral wool products (Table 7) [1][2][4][5]. Material Rock wool Fiberglass Foam glass EPS XPS PUR Expanded perlite Expanded clay Cork Wood wool Fiberboard Straw bale Cellulose insulation Hemp Cornstalk blocks Thermal conductivity (W/mK) 0,0350,045 0,0350,045 0,0380,060 0,0320,040 0,0300,040 0,0240,030 0,0450,070 0,0850,100 0,0370,060 0,0500,090 0,0400,090 0,0380,072 0,0400,045 0,0400,050 0,04550,0555
Table 7: The thermal conductivity of thermal insulation materials [6][7][9]
3.6. Dynamic stiffness Dynamic stiffness of building materials gives important information about the sound insulation quality. For laboratory tests 8 samples with different density were used with a size of 20x20 cm and a thickness of 57 cm. Results showed an unexpectedly low dynamic stiffness of 4,8517,66 MN/m3 with an average of 9,84 MN/m3. Taking a look at Table 8 it is arguable that cornstalk insulation blocks have as good sound insulation quality as the common sound insulating materials [5].
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Material Rock wool EPS Cork Wood wool Fiberboard Cellulose insulation Cornstalk blocks
Dynamic stiffness (MN/m3) 735 740 50120 1040 48 37 4,8517,66
Table 8: The dynamic stiffness of thermal insulation materials [6][7][9]
4. CONCLUSIONS
Laboratory tests showed that the thermal and sound insulation quality of cornstalk insulation blocks is low enough to be competitive with the common insulation materials. Analyzing the relation between density, thermal conductivity and dynamic stiffness it was also cleared that cornstalk insulation blocks belong to a group of thermal insulation materials where thermal and sound insulation quality is inversely proportional to density (Figure 2 and Figure 3) [1][5].
Figure 2: The relation of density and thermal conductivity [1]
Figure 3: The relation of density and dynamic stiffness [5]
Cornstalk insulation blocks are environmentally friendly because their manufacture is not energy-intensive. They are recyclable and easy to work with. In addition production of cornstalk insulating blocks means the utilization of a huge amount of agricultural waste products. The mechanical strength of cornstalk insulation blocks is not enough to be used as a supporting structure but their mechanical parameters are comparable with the same parameters of the common thermal insulation materials.
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The effects of moisture are critical. Water absorption of cornstalk insulation blocks is as high as that of the similar thermal insulation materials (wood wool, straw bale). Further tests are needed with cornstalk insulation blocks because their flammability, durability, freezing resistance and hazard of rodents and insects are still undecided. The most important question would be their fire resistance. Testing a similar material (straw bale), Hungarian scientists found relation between density and fire resistance [3]. It is proved that density and fire resistance of straw bales is directly proportional. They also determined an ideal density (120 kg/m3) when the hazard of fire is acceptable [3]. On the basis of these tests it is expected that there is a similar relation and increasing density of cornstalk blocks also causes better fire resistance. An ideal density might also be determinable. The present disadvantages of cornstalk insulation blocks are the lack of standards, lack of regulations in design and implementation and the incomplete special technical literature. Not only further tests are needed to overcome these disadvantages but it is also important to work out the qualifying system of cornstalk insulation blocks to make them a marketable thermal insulation material.
REFERENCES
Bozsaky, D.: A kukoricaszr blokk, mint j, termszetes hszigetel anyag, Magyar ptipar Vol. 61 Nr. 3, HU ISSN 0025-0074, 2011, pp. 99103. Bozsaky, D. Molnr, V.: A kukoricaszr blokk optimlis srsgnek meghatrozsa, Fejldsi lehetsgek az ptipar terletn, TE ptsmenedzsment s Technolgia Konferencia 2011, Budapest, 2011.10.28, Terc Kft., Budapest, ISBN 978-963-8062-63-5, 2011, pp. 2025. Mder, I. F. Lubly, . Takcs, G. L.: Szalmabla anyag falak tzvdelmi krdsei, ptanyag Vol. 62 Nr. 4, 2010, pp. 120124. Molnr, V. Bozsaky, D.: A kukoricaszr blokk ismertetse, hvezetsi tnyezjnek meghatrozsa, Innovatv mdszerek s technolgik, TE ptsmenedzsment s Technolgia Konferencia 2009, Budapest, 2009.10.29, Terc Kft., Budapest, ISBN 978-963-8062-61-1, 2009, pp. 138143. Molnr, V. Bozsaky, D.: A kukoricaszr blokk laboratriumi vizsglatai, ptipar a fenntarthat fejldsrt, TE ptsmenedzsment s Technolgia Konferencia 2010, Budapest, 2010.10.28, Terc Kft., Budapest, ISBN 978-9638062-62-8, 2010, pp. 143148. Plundstein, M.: Dmmstoffarten. Detail Praxis Dmmstoffe (Grundlagen, Materialen, Anwendungan), Istitut fr international Architektur-Dokumentation GmbG & Co. KG, Mnchen (D), 2007, pp. 1757. Steimle, P.: Energieeffizientes Bauen Wrmedmmung ist der erste Schritt, Gesamtverband Dmmstoffindustrie (GDI), Berlin (D), 2007 Szab, Z.: Kukoricaszr tgla Innovcis project, Homatech Kft., 2009 Wieland, H.: Natrliche Dmmaterialen im Vergleich, Energetische Gebudesanierung und Qualittssicherungm KuK-Infoveranstaltung, Hannover (D), 2006.06.10
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A FRAMEWORK METHODOLOGY FOR SELECTION OF RISK ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

Alberto De Marco Politecnico di Torino, Dept. of Management and Production Engineering (DIGEP), Turin, Italy, alberto.demarco@polito.it Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem Politecnico di Torino, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, Turin, Italy, jamal.thaheem@polito.it Sabrina Grimaldi Politecnico di Torino, DIGEP, Turin, Italy, sabrina.grimaldi@polito.it Carlo Rafele Politecnico di Torino, DIGEP, Turin, Italy, carlo.rafele@polito.it
Abstract Project Risk Management has been gaining acceptance amongst the practitioners due to an untiring stress on its importance, and the availability of a number of risk analysis techniques for facilitating this task in construction project management. In this arena, the selection of a suitable risk analysis technique is critical to the entire project risk management process and thus critical to the success of a construction project. However, the availability of an appropriate selection methodology, which may help the project managers choose a suitable methodology for their projects, seems missing. In this paper a selection framework methodology is presented, which looks at the realization of a practical tool that may help project managers and construction practitioners in choosing a suitable risk analysis technique that satisfies select project drivers. Also, the presented work extends the traditional time, cost and quality drivers of a project by enhancing the focus to the level of complexity and maturity of the organization. The project drivers are further classified into four scales each, to assist in formulating a well-structured chart. The dimension of project risk analysis technique is classified into qualitative, semi-quantitative, quantitative, and simulation scales, rendering a balanced diagram. Plotting the project drivers on the chart result in acquisition of the category of risk analysis technique, which is appropriate under given variables. The paper further proposes individual classification of existing techniques into the four categories of project risk analysis dimension, which may help practitioners to obtain a specific technique for their construction project by conveniently putting in the variables into
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the proposed chart. Applicability of the framework methodology is finally presented followed by conclusions and future research directions. Keywords: construction management, decision making, project classification, project management, risk analysis.
1. INTRODUCTION
Risk management is a major concern to project managers, as unmanaged or unmitigated risks are one of the primary causes of project failure (Royer, 2000). Risk is considered to be a major factor influencing project success, and Project Risk Management (PRM) is an important process in any capital project (Krane et al., 2010). Thus, PRM is currently one of the main topics of interest for both researchers and practitioners working in the field of project management. The various approaches available for PRM are shared and standardized by the Project Management Institute (PMI, 2009), which recognizes PRM as the process of identification and analysis of risks, preparation of the answers to the risks, and their monitoring and control in the course of the project. In particular, the analysis of project risks is a critical challenge for any project manager, and further critical is the selection of an appropriate technique to assist the duty of project risk analysis. In fact, there is no universally accepted way to assess risks in all projects and the literature is littered with a number of techniques, all claiming to be mathematically, statistically and, from an engineering point of view, extremely competitive and effective, and rightly so. But, choosing the most suitable risk analysis technique under given project characteristics is critical to project success. In an attempt to help project managers choose the appropriate project risk analysis technique for a project, this paper proposes a framework methodology to help managers select a specific qualitative or quantitative risk analysis technique under given characteristics of a project being managed. This paper is structured as follows. First, we illustrate the four main risk drivers that can characterize the dimensions of a project. Second, the main risk analysis techniques are listed. Then, we present the methodology of selecting the appropriate risk analysis techniques by mapping the main dimensions of a project. Finally, after discussing the application of the methodology, we draw implications and conclusions.
2. PROJECT DRIVER DESCRIPTION

It could be argued that large, high-risk projects require specific techniques, and resources that differ from those required by small, low-risk projects. For example, it seems reasonable to assign the most experienced project managers to head large, high-risk projects. As well,
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high-risk projects should be more carefully planned, closely monitored, and strictly controlled (Couillard, 1995). In other words, a high level of risk requires a scrupulous project risk analysis and the best risk management techniques vary widely according to project characteristics (McFarlan, 1981). We propose that a project can be described as characterized by four main dimensions, represented by the radar diagram depicted in Figure 1, namely: its degree of complexity, the size of its scope of work, the focus on one or more phases of its life-cycle, and level of maturity of its project management processes. The combination of these four factors allows to conveniently framing the project into objective drivers of project risk. For example, a highly complex and large-sized project is likely to bring a high level of risk, which requires sophisticated risk analysis techniques. In the following subsections, we discuss these categories and their four associated increasing degrees of elevation.
Figure 1: Radar diagram representing the four dimensions of a project
2.1. Complexity Project complexity is often defined in terms of a broad range of attributes such as technological difficulty of task performance, differentiation and interdependency of operations, e.g.: overlap of design and construction (Baccarini, 1996). Here, the concept of complexity encompasses all these definitions, with four levels of increasing complexity that can characterize a project (Shenhar and Dvir, 2007): 1) uniqueness of the constructed facility; 2) innovativeness of the building technology or of the construction process; 3) complication of the system design and its subsystems assembly; and 4) criticality of the time frame requiring a fast pace and time-critical construction effort. With this notion,
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a highly complex construction project is characterized for being unique, with breakthrough technology, complicated system design, and requiring a very fast development process.
2.2. Size Project scope is the crucial stage where risks associated with the project are analyzed and the specific project execution approach is defined. The success of a project is highly dependent on the level of effort expended during this scope definition phase (Cho and Gibson, 2001), and the scope size is an important factor influencing the quantity and impact of risks on a project. The project scope, and associated inherent risk, can be measured via four escalating factors and inherent associated risks: 1) the number of tasks required to accomplishing the project; 2) the quantity of resources assigned to the tasks; 3) the magnitude of budgeted/actual cost; and 4) the financial stress of the projects cash flow. Thus, a large sized project has a large number of tasks with many assigned resources leading to a huge budget with deep financial exposure demanding for anticipated equity capitals.
2.3. Focus When managing a project, one must consider the purpose of the management effort and understand whether the focus is directed to one single stage or goes throughout the full project lifecycle. A project can be addressed to cope with four main, from limited to extended, focuses: 1) proposal preparation during a bidding process; 2) either pure design or sole construction; 3) integrated design and construction; and 4) lifecycle, which is usually identified as composed of three stages, namely design, construction and operations (Arditi and Gunaydin, 1998). A lifecycle focus is the one likely to bear more associated risks.
2.4. Maturity Organizations, undertaking projects, are always required to improve and adjust their operations and processes to plan, manage, and complete projects more successfully due to constant pressure on project managers to integrate, plan, and control complex projects (Ibbs and Kwak, 2000). Project organizations are exposed to maturity models of various types (Grant and Pennypacker, 2006). PMI (2008) identifies the organizational project management maturity at four scales: 1) standardize the process; 2) measure the effectiveness of standardized business processes in achieving desired outcomes; 3) control the developed processes, plans and implementations to achieve stability and 4)continuously improve by identifying new problems and implementing improvements to reach at sustainable improvements.
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3. PROJECT RISK ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES

The process of project risk analysis demands for appropriate managerial techniques. A technique is a specific procedure designed to perform an activity or to solve a problem under a prescribed notation and guidelines (Brinkkemper, 1996). The application of a risk analysis technique is often supported by -possibly automated- tools. The main role of tools is to allow for searching, gathering, and management of data that are necessary for the various PRM phases. Numerous techniques use different types of data and information acquired from a wide range of sources by using different tools, such as statistics, inspections, surveys, documentations, and expert judgments. Project risk analysis techniques can be subsumed into two main categories, namely qualitative and quantitative techniques (PMI, 2009), with their associated sub-categories of semiquantitative and simulation techniques. The group of qualitative risk analysis techniques does not operate on numerical data, presenting results in the form of descriptions, recommendations and ordinal scores (Hubbard and Evans, 2010), where risk assessment is connected with qualitative description and determination of qualitative scales for the probability and impact of the consequences of risk. Qualitative techniques can be lists of risks, risk rankings, or risk maps. They prioritize risks for subsequent further analysis or action by assessing and combing their probability of occurrence and impact. The risk is evaluated in more conceptual terms, such as high, medium or low, regarding collected opinion and risk tolerance boundaries in the organization. The main qualitative analysis techniques are listed in Table 1. Technique Brainstorming Cause and effect diagram Checklists Delphi Definition Best possible solutions about project risk are generated under the leadership of a facilitator (Berg, 2010). It is also known as Ishikawa or fishbone diagram. It is useful for identifying causes of risks (del Can, 2002). It is a detailed aide-memoire for the identification of potential risks based on past similar projects (del Can, 2002). A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas about the major project risks and project risk experts participate anonymously (Bandyopadhyay, 1999; Berg, 2010). It models the range of possible outcomes of one or a category of initiating events. It usually provides qualitative descriptions (del Can, 2002). It is an activities and threats matrix, the risk number for each activity and the most frequent overall risks are evaluated (Hillson et al., 2006). It evaluates the extent to which risk is understood and the accuracy, quality, reliability, and integrity of risk data (PMI, 2009).
Table 1: List of qualitative risk analysis techniques
Event Tree Analysis (ETA) Risk Breakdown Matrix (RBM) Risk Data Quality Assessment
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A derivative group of techniques is the one that uses semi-quantitative assessment of risk. Semi-quantitative analysis can be defined when a scale factor is associated to nonnumeric ranking. For example, Baccarini and Archer (2001) recommend a score from 1 to 5 for ranking risk factors affecting project performance, with 5 being very high risk. Table 2 shows some semi-quantitative adjustments of qualitative techniques. Technique Interviews Definition The risks are identified through expert interviews, and a risk management capability score is determined with a five-point scale. This technique is also used to assess the probability and impact of risks on project objectives (IMA, 2007). It is used to semi-quantitatively evaluate and prioritize a group of risks that could significantly impact on the project cost and time outcomes (Scandizzo, 2005). It investigates the likelihood and potential effect of a risk on projects objectives (PMI, 2009).
Table 2: Semi-quantitative risk analysis techniques
Risk Mapping, Risk Matrix, Probability and Impact Matrix Risk Probability and Impact Assessment
With quantitative analysis techniques, the estimation of risk exposure is connected with application of numerical measures. Here, the impact of consequences is defined in dollar amounts and the likelihood by the frequency of risk occurrence, based on past series of available data. In brief, quantitative techniques numerically analyze the effect of identified risks on the project objectives (PMI, 2009). The main quantitative techniques are listed in Table 3. Technique ABC classification/ Pareto analysis Decision Tree Analysis Expected Monetary Value Expert Judgement Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) Fuzzy Logic Probability distributions Definition It is an analysis of levels of risk significance. Risky events are grouped into three categories (A, B, C) in order of their estimated importance, with 'A' being very critical (Rebernik et al., 2008). It is a decision flow diagram, subject to the influence of future events whose probability of occurrence is known (Schuyler, 2001). Takes into consideration the probability aspect of the system states and is based on a gain matrix (PMI, 2009). It is based on the expert opinions for the evaluation of failure rate and success chances of the overall project (PMI, 2009). Possible derivative risk events are derived from a top event (del Can, 2002; Mullai, 2006). A simple way to reach a definite conclusion based upon vague, imprecise, noisy, or missing input (Konstandinidou, 2006). Continuous probability distributions represent the uncertainty in values, such as durations of schedule activities and costs of project
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Sensitivity analysis/ Tornado diagram
components (del Can, 2002; PMI, 2008). It helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project, e.g.: the tornado diagram. Tornado charts attempt to capture how much risk impacts on a particular metric, such as revenue or earnings (Lyons and Skitmore, 2004).
Table 3: List of quantitative risk analysis techniques
In addition, risk analysis techniques that make use of computer-based simulation tools, such as Monte Carlo simulations and system dynamics applications for PRM (Table 4), can be considered as derivative concepts of quantitative analysis techniques because of the extended usage of numerical past data for risk analysis. Simulations are of great value when large sets of historical data from past projects are available. Technique Monte Carlo Definition These evaluate decisions related to future events that can be described with probabilistic distributions. Monte Carlo simulations randomly pick values for uncertain variables to generate a distribution of possible case scenarios (De Marco, 2011). It allows for diagramming a system of causally looped variables, defining the mathematical relations, and instructing a computer to solve the differential set of equations with the purpose of assessing the impact on project performance (Lyneis and Ford, 2007).
Table 4: Simulation-based risk analysis techniques
System Dynamics
4. METHODOLOGY
The four categories of risk analysis techniques can be plotted according to their degree of analytic assessment of risk exposure, from qualitative analysis to simulation, as a fifth dimension on the radar diagram, introduced in Figure 1. It can be argued that quantitative and, particularly, simulation-based techniques require a larger effort in gathering and processing data than qualitative assessment techniques. Consequently, quantitative techniques are likely to be applied in projects with a greater level of risk. The idea is depicted in Figure 2, where a hypothetical project, with known driving dimensions of complexity, size, focus, and maturity, is also plotted with a dashed curve line.
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Figure 2: Categories of risk analysis techniques mapped on the radar diagram
Plotting the project drivers on the chart result in acquisition of the category of risk analysis technique, which is suitable under given variables. For example, the case project is hypothesized to be a quite traditional green field residential real estate development characterized for being not complex in design, large-sized in resources, budget and cash flow, requiring both design and construction processes, and conducted by a rather immature developing company. Under these project characteristics, one can see that the area identified on the radar diagram fully comprises the qualitative technique portion of the diagram, while other techniques are only partially covered. This indicates that qualitative risk analysis techniques are suggested to be the most appropriate one to be used for this project, because using more sophisticated quantitative risk assessment might seem excessive to the level of risk and maturity borne here. In details, here we envisage the utilization of checklists and risk breakdown matrix to identify potential sources of risk based on past experiences of similar real estate development projects. Would the project diamond area cover a larger portion of the diagram, quantitative or even simulation techniques might be more appropriately suggested. In other terms, the extension of the project plotted area on the four dimensions diagram is an indicator of the extents to which quantitative techniques might beneficially apply to the PRM process.
5. CONCLUSIONS
Simple projects call for simpler risk analysis techniques and vice versa: the cost and effort involved while performing expensive and labor-exhaustive analysis using simulation will benefit where it is required complex, exceptional and rare projects. On the other hand,
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simpler and routine projects may benefit from relatively effortless analysis techniques. A practical methodology for helping project managers select the appropriate risk analysis technique, thus, becomes very important as an inapt technique will probably yield less useful and reliable results. It is, therefore, implicitly reflected that presented framework methodology for selection of risk analysis techniques will help project managers settle on the most suitable technique under the given project drivers. This methodology also broadens the perspective of project drivers from conservative triple constraints (time, cost and quality/scope), which were tightly coupled with the project to more extensive and realistic project drivers (complexity, size, focus and maturity), where focus has widened from only the project and now includes the organizations undertaking those projects. The way forward may be to validate the presented selection methodology on the ongoing projects for verifying its accuracy and reliability. It may also be extended for other industry sectors involving similar or close project dynamics. This methodology is, nevertheless, limited by its use of four project drivers, which diminishes its applicability to other project dynamics.
REFERENCES
Arditi, D. and Gunaydin, H.M., 1998. Factors that affect process quality in the life cycle of building projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 124, No. 3, pp. 194204. Baccarini, D. and Archer, R., 2001. The risk ranking of projects: a methodology. International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 19, pp. 139145. Baccarini, D., 1996. The concept of project complexity a review. International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 201204. Bandyopadhyay, K., Mykytyn, P.P. and Mykytyn, K., 1999. A framework for integrated risk management in information technology. Management Decision, Vol. 37, No. 5, pp. 437445. Berg, H.P., 2010. Risk management: procedures, methods and experiences. Reliability and Risk Analysis: Theory and Applications, Vol.1, No. 2, pp. 7995. Brinkkemper, S., 1996. Method engineering: engineering of information systems development methods and tools. Information and Software Technology, Vol. 38, pp. 275280. Cho, C. K. and Gibson, G. E. Jr., 2001. Building project scope definition using project definition rating index. Journal of Architectural Engineering, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 115125. Couillard, J., 1995. The role of project risk in determining project management approach. Project Management Journal, Vol. 26, No. 4, pp. 315. De Marco, A., 2011. Project Management for Facility Constructions. Springer, Heidelberg, Germany. del Can, A., 2002. Integrated methodology for project risk management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 128, No. 6, pp. 473486. Grant, K. P. and Pennypacker, J. S., 2006. Project management maturity: An assessment of project management capabilities among and between selected industries. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 53, No. 1, pp. 5968.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Hillson, D., Grimaldi, S., Rafele, C., 2006. Managing project risk using a cross risk breakdown matrix. Risk Management, Vol. 8, pp. 6176. Hubbard, D. and Evans, D., 2010. Problems with scoring methods and ordinal scales in risk assessment. IBM Journal of Research and Development, Vol. 54, No. 3, pp. 210. Ibbs, C. W. and Kwak, Y. H., 2000. Assessing project management maturity. Project Management Journal, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 3243. IMA, 2007. Enterprise Risk Management: Tools and Techniques for Effective Implementation. Statements on Management Accounting, Institute of Management Accountants. Konstandinidou, M., Nivolianitoub, Z., Kiranoudisa, C. and Markatos, N., 2006. A fuzzy modeling application of CREAM methodology for human reliability analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 91, pp. 706 716. Krane, H. P., Rolstads, A. and Olsson, O. E., 2010. Categorizing risks in seven large projects Which risks do the projects focus on? Project Management Journal, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 8186. Lyneis, J. M. and Ford, D. N., 2007. System dynamics applied to project management: a survey, assessment, and directions for future research. System Dynamics Review, Vol. 23, pp. 157189. Lyons, T. and Skitmore, M., 2004. Project risk management in the Queensland engineering construction industry: a survey. International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 22, pp. 5161. McFarlan, F. E., 1981. Portfolio approach to information systems. Harvard Business Review (Sep.Oct.), pp. 142 150. Mullai, A., 2006. Maritime transport and risks of packaged dangerous goods. Safe and Reliable Transport Chains of Dangerous Goods in the Baltic Sea Region (DaGoB) Project Publication Series 4:2006, Turku School of Economics, Logistics, Turku, Finland. PMI, 2008. Organizational Project Management Maturity Model (OPM3) Second Edition: Knowledge Foundation. Project Management Institute, Newtown Square, PA. PMI, 2009. Practice Standard for Project Risk Management. Project Management Institute, Newtown Square, PA. Rebernik, M. and Brada, B., 2008. Idea evaluation methods and techniques, available at: http://www.creativetrainer.eu/ [accessed 24 April, 2012]. Royer, P.S., 2000. Risk management: The undiscovered dimension of project management. Project Management Journal, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 613. Scandizzo, S., 2005. Risk mapping and key performance indicators in operational risk management. Economic Notes, Vol. 34, No. 2, PP. 231256. Schuyler, J., 2001. Risk and decision analysis in projects, Project Management Institute, USA. Shenhar, A. and Dvir, D., 2007. Reinventing Project Management: The diamond approach to successful growth and innovation. Harvard Business Press, Cambridge, MA, USA.
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AGILEAN PROJECT MANAGEMENT TIME FOR CHANGE IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

Selim Tugra Demir Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, United Kingdom, S.T.Demir@2009.ljmu.ac.uk David James Bryde Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, United Kingdom, D.J.Bryde@ljmu.ac.uk Damian John Fearon Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, United Kingdom, D.J.Fearon@ljmu.ac.uk Edward Godfrey Ochieng Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, United Kingdom, E.G.Ochieng@ljmu.ac.uk
Abstract A challenge in Lean Construction is how to make it applicable when there is a high degree of complexity and uncertainty. In many construction projects there are changing project requirements, unique products and a need for actions that are highly focused on meeting customer/client expectations. Such scenarios require management methods that are characterized by being flexible and able to react to change. The aim of this paper is to introduce a method that has such characteristics. Lean and Agile concepts are analyzed and this activity is supported by data from practitioner interviews. It is concluded that Lean is not ideally suited to dealing with the dynamic environment present at certain points in the construction project life cycle. Agile methods, which were developed to cope with the high levels of uncertainty inherent to IT projects, are more flexible and able to react to change. Hence utilizing Agile-based methods might be the key to the successful utilization of Lean in construction. It is concluded that a management method based on combining Lean and Agile approaches has potential. Such an approach needs creative thinking to develop a solution that is different to that of Leagile. Leagile uses Lean and Agile methods in the execution phase sequentially, through using a decoupling point model to separate the two. This paper introduces a method in which such a decoupling or separation does not take place. Rather, throughout the construction phase the project management approach switches between Lean and Agile as the situation demands. The method presented in this paper is termed AgiLean Project Management [PM]. The term is carefully chosen, with the notion being that the foundation is Lean, but there is a need for flexibility and the ability to react to change, so Lean needs to be agitated i.e. become more irregular and rapid hence AgiLean PM. Keywords: Agile, AgiLean, Leagile, Lean, Project Management.
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1. INTRODUCTION
The management of construction is complex, and complex projects call for new management paradigms (Williams, 1999). In search for such paradigms, the construction industry has promoted a Lean paradigm, which originated in the automotive industry. Lean Construction provides increased productivity by eliminating wasteful activities and continuous improvement of processes through continuous monitoring. However the achievements of Lean in construction practice do not always reflect those stated in theory. A reason for this might be that Lean Construction has been clearly derived from Lean Production (Green and May, 2003), which has resulted in strong barriers to implementation. Rather than changing the nature of Lean so that it is better aligned with construction, the Lean movement has focused on re-conceptualizing the nature of construction, with the general approach being to make construction more like production. However, the dynamic environment of construction projects makes the implementation of Lean, as conceived in manufacturing environments, difficult; as there is no room for flexibility due to the focus on perfection (Andersson et al. 2006). But projects change over their life cycle (Hunt, 2006), so there is always a demand for flexibility when undertaking a project. This results in a trend towards Lean-less in project management [PM], which has led to a focus on more Agile (flexible) management approaches. Agile PM methods focus on the team as an important factor, with the aim of Agile being to satisfy the client and react to change (Chin, 2004; Hunt, 2006). This paper presents the findings from one element of a wider research project. The research seeks creative solutions to combine PM, Lean and Agile methodologies, in order to makes Lean more adaptable to construction environments. The result is the development of AgiLean, which is a strategic framework for managing construction projects that integrates Lean and Agile. As part of the research an AgiLean Matrix has been developed, which is conceptualized in this paper. The paper is structured as follows: 1. the context of the different management disciplines is provided, 2. the research method is introduced; 3. the results of the collected data are presented, followed by 4. the discussion of the findings and finally 5. conclusions are drawn.
2.1 Lean Construction Leans [...] core principles (flow, value, pull, minimizing waste etc.) have become the paradigm for many manufacturing (and service) operations (Lewis, 2000, p. 959). The term Lean Production was introduced by researchers of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who focused on the significant performance gap between Western and Japanese car manufacturers (Bhasin, 2005). Lean production means [...] a third form of production system, one capable of producing more and better vehicles in less time, in less space and when using fewer labour hours than the mass or craft production systems that proceed it (Ballard and Howell, 2003, p. 120), i.e. to add value without waste (Liker, 2004). The general approach of the Lean management philosophy is to eliminate waste (Womack et al. 1990;
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Womack and Jones, 2003; Liker, 2004), in the following areas: overproduction, waiting (time on hand), unnecessary transport or conveyance, over processing or incorrect processing, excess inventory, unnecessary movement, defects (Liker, 2004, pp. 2829). Koskela (1992) developed a theory of Lean to construction four years the term has been introduced to manufacturing by Krafcik (1988). Koskelas work was expanded upon by Ballard (2000), who developed The Last Planner system, which was a practical application of Lean for the management of construction projects. According to Howell (1999, p. 4) the management of construction projects under Lean is different from current construction project management practice for the following reasons: Lean has a clear set of objectives for the delivery process Lean is aimed at maximizing performance for the customer at the project level Lean designs concurrently product and process, and Lean applies production control throughout the life of the project
Womack and Jones (2003) identified five fundamental principles of Lean production as it applies to manufacturing; which are: 1) specifying value, 2) identifying the value stream, 3) flow, 4) pull and 5) pursuing perfection. A strategy and tools for applying these principles to construction was developed by Ballard et al. (2001). Ballard et al.s work was built upon by Ballard and Howell (2003) through the development of Lean PM, in which they argue that projects can be seen as temporary production systems. Furthermore, they argue that when those systems are structured to deliver the product while maximizing value and minimizing waste, they are said to be Lean projects and Lean project management differs from traditional project management not only in the goals it pursues, but also in the structure of its phases, the relationship between phases and the participants in each phase (Ballard and Howell, 2003, p. 119). However, despite the work of Ballard and Howell, amongst others, there are still conceptual problems and difficulties to overcome in applying Lean to construction. The fact that the environment of production is static, because [] raw materials are progressively transformed over a series of separable steps into the final product (Eccles, 1981, p. 337) means the focus of Lean is on managing a sequence of activities which are optimized to repetitively produce the product as efficiently as it is possible (Womack et al., 1990). But the environment of production is often very different to construction. In construction a project environment exists. Construction [] is large and usually immobile; there is a higher degree of complexity in the number and range of component parts; its production on site introduces varying degrees of uniqueness []; and it [] must be more durable and is often more expensive than other manufactured goods (Gann, 1996, p.438). Furthermore the constructed facility is built at the point of consumption, which is in contrast to manufacturing where finished products are transported to market (Gann, 1996). Consequently, to enable Lean to work in construction, the conceptualisation of construction has to change. Construction projects have to be viewed as temporary production systems, in order to create a stable platform. This stable platform will allow categorization of tasks which can be divided into value adding, none value adding and waste activities (Koskela, 2000). This categorization
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enables the pursuit of perfection within the project (Womack and Jones, 2003). However, given that construction projects will change over their project life cycle leads to the conclusion that the dynamics in a construction project cannot be avoided. This is in contrast with production, with its more static environment and lower levels of uncertainty (Eccles, 1981). So there is a dilemma for implementing Lean to construction, namely, Lean is best suited to static environements where a high repetition and a low variety exists, as it needs a stable platform where processes can be forecasted and optimised. Yet researchers are generally in agreement that Lean is not good in dealing with highly dynamic environments, where low repetition and a high variety exists (Andersson et al., 2006) which is typical of construction projects [] as there is no room for flexibility due to the focus on perfection [] (Andersson et al., 2006, p. 289).
2.2 Agile the missing puzzle? In sharp contrast to the outputs from a Lean process, there is often a requirement for products which have high variety with high variability (Booth, 1996). Coupled with the fact that projects change over their lifecycle (Chin, 2004; Hunt, 2006) this leads to calls for alternative management paradigms besides that of Lean. One such paradigm is Agile. The concepts of agility are not new to manufacturing (Iacocca Institute, 1992) nor to Information Technology [IT] (Agile Alliance, 2001), but they are in their infancy within construction (Owen and Koskela, 2006a). The Agile developments in manufacturing and IT took place independently (Kettunen, 2009) and according to Owen and Koskela (2006a) originated from the Deming Cycle. The origin of Agile in construction can be linked to the Agile developments in both manufacturing and IT (Owen and Koskela, 2006a; Owen and Koskela, 2006b; Owen et al., 2006). Yet commonly agreed principles, tools and methods are missing between Agile manufacturing and Agile IT. In contrast with Agile in IT, there are no exact definitions, methods and techniques for Agile in manufacturing (Kettunen, 2009). Therefore there seems more potential to provide a conceptual framework for Agile in construction through focusing on Agile in IT. The original development of Agile IT PM methodologies began with a misinterpretation of the waterfall model (Owen and Koskela, 2006a). The starting point was the recognition that projects change over their lifecycle, which results in a need for flexibility when undertaking a project (Chin, 2004). This fundamental characteristic of projects was the foundation for a growing movement called the Agile Software Development Alliance (Agile Alliance, 2001). This alliance of IT and software practitioners produced a manifesto with the following values: individuals and interactions over processes and tools; working software over comprehensive documentation; customer collaboration over contract negotiation; responding to change over following a plan (Agile Alliance, 2001). Based on these values twelve principles were identified. These principles do not specify a specific Agile method; rather they provide guiding statements to help people gain knowledge about agility and to see if one is following an Agile methodology or not (Hunt, 2006). As such Agile is an umbrella term used to describe a number of different development methodologies, for instance eXtreme Programming,
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Adaptive Software development, Crystal and Scrum (ibid.). The applicability of Agile PM concepts to construction have been analyzed by Owen and Koskela (2006a), Owen and Koskela (2006b) and Owen et al., (2006), with the conclusion being that it is more applicable to the design phase than to the execution phase of a project.
2.3 Coming together Leagile The idea of putting the Lean and Agile paradigms together is not a novel approach. Naylor at al. (1999) combined them and coined the term Leagile (Goldsby et al., 2006). The need for Leagile came from viewing the whole supply chain (van Hoek, 2000). With the conclusion being that the environment within which organizations operate consists of, on the one hand, demand being relatively stable, predictable and with variety low (Atiken at al., 2002). On the other hand, demand is volatile, with the customer requirement for variety high (ibid.). Therefore researchers involved in supply chain management [SCM] disciplines sought to draw from the relative strengths of Lean and Agile management paradigms by combining them with each other (Naylor et al., 1999; van Hoek, 2000; Mason-Jones et al., 2000; Goldsby et al., 2006). Naylor et al. (1999) developed the Decoupling Point Model, where the decoupling point is where SCM switches from one paradigm to the other (Mason-Jones et al., 2000). Hence, Lean and Agile paradigms are not be seen as competing but rather as overlapping paradigms when considering the whole supply chain (Narasimham et al., 2006). However, given that concepts of agility are still new to construction, Leagile construction is in the very early stages of development. The construction PM discipline faces two environmental typologies. On the one hand it is highly dynamic, but on the other it becomes increasingly static as the project proceeds. This has been considered by Naim et al. (1999) who proposed a decoupling point model for prefabricated housing where a switch from a Lean to Agile paradigm, or vice versa, takes place, combining the methods sequentially. The result is an approach for managing the supply chain in construction which mainly focuses on the execution phase and not on the whole project lifecycle. Court et al., (2006) adapt the Decoupling Point Model in managing the supply chain of a Mechanical and Electrical engineering company, but again the focus is mainly on the execution phase. On-site execution is managed using the Last Planner System and the supply chain pre-execution phase is managed with Agile values (Court et al., 2006). To conclude the review of the management disciplines of Lean, Agile and Leagile, prior work on integrating Lean and Agile in construction, based on Leagile, has mainly focused on the adaption of the decoupling point model, and has not focused on the whole project life cycle perspective. Furthermore the focus has been more on adapting Agile manufacturing rather than Agile IT concepts to construction. Therefore a PM approach which takes a strategic and holistic perspective, which covers the whole project lifecycle and learns from the experiences of using agile methods to manage IT projects, has not so far been developed in relation to construction.
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3. METHOD
To meet the aim of developing a strategic framework for managing construction projects that integrates Lean and Agile a detailed understanding of the salient concepts of Agile, Lean and Leagile is required. Furthermore the limits and barriers, as well as the benefits of each, have to be identified, in order to be able to judge which paradigm is more appropriate in a particular project phase or even in a particular situation. This understanding and identification has been facilitated through reviewing the trends in current literature, which are summarized in the previous section. However, there are still gaps between theory and practice. In order to narrow this gap semi structured interviews were conducted with 4 Agile Practitioners [APs], 5 Lean Practitioners [LPs] and 5 PM Practitioners [PMPs]. The APs are labelled AP1AP4, the LPs (15) and the PMPs (15). The interviews, which were exploratory in their nature, were undertaken with highly experienced managers from well-known companies in Germany. The interviews with the LPs and the PMPs focused on the potential benefits, limits and barriers of Lean to construction the PMPs were also asked about their knowledge and experience of Agile. The interviews with the APs also focused on benefits, limits and barriers to construction, but in this case of Agile only. The interviews were recorded by a voice recorder and then transcribed. The transcripts were then analyzed using the Computer Assisted Qualitative Data Analysis Software, NVIVO. The findings of the interviews coupled with the results of the literature review are combined to develop the AgiLean strategic framework.
4. FINDINGS
4.1 Lean Construction This section reports the findings of the interviews in relation to the potential benefits, limits and barriers to using Lean in construction environments. LP 4 stated that Lean methodologies have the focal point of orientation on the building and the building has to be seen as a product. Furthermore LP 4 explained that the focus of the parties involved should be on the project as a whole and not on the organizational aims of ones own company. This requires a complete new way of thinking, according to PMP 2, PMP 3 and PMP 5, as it is not currently present in many construction environments. All of the LPs stated that the best environment for implementing Lean is a stable/static environment. For instance LP 4 and LP 5 stated that they are mostly consulting on the use of Lean methods for plant construction projects, where the building itself can be seen as shell, and where the focus is more on putting the machines (plant) together. When explaining their Lean methods, the focus of the interviewees was more in the execution phase than the design phase of a project. All the PMPs and LPs agreed that there is a lot of waste generated when undertaking a construction project, whether in design or execution. The focus of Lean on the process creates high degrees of transparency, which according to LP 2 creates more value, because it allows one to see what is required, what do I get? and what is too much. LP 3 sees the strength of Lean in the setting of standards, which allows you to focus on the customer. The core capability
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of Lean, to eliminate waste, was seen as attractive by all PMPs, but PMP 1 concluded that there might be processes which can be made more Lean in construction, but I do not believe that the [increased] efficiency of Lean will create a breakthrough, rather it will create improvements in a more detailed level. Most of the LPs, as well as PMPs, argued that the construction industry needs to be restructured for a Lean movement to gain traction. Specifically, the role of prefabrication of some building elements was highlighted by the LPs as a key enabler. LP 1 saw a barrier to entry for Lean as the conservative character of the industry, and the confrontational relationships between the parties involved, i.e. architect versus contractor, contractor versus subcontractor. All the LPs had a common belief that the high number of project participants in a construction project makes the implementation of Lean more complex than in production industries. Also the changing composition of project teams was highlighted as a barrier to the effective use of Lean in construction. All the PMPs concluded that the current way the industry operates does not easily lend itself to using Lean, as was typified by the comments of PMP 2: with the current structures, the way the industry thinks, they can forget about Lean in construction. LP 4 also expressed the view that the construction industry structures in Germany are not particularly suited to implementing Lean, as the stipulations, regulations and standards predefines the fee system and the tasks of construction management, which limits these modern management methods.
4.2 Agile AP 4 defined Agile PM as a model to proceed, in which one is planning less the aim but more the way through rhythmic meetings. This results, according to AP1, in that one is only doing management per demand and not more. Agile was described by AP2 as a more actionoriented approach to the management of the project. This was confirmed by AP4 who argued that Agile methodologies focus on the planning and implementation of small manageable tasks rather than higher level aims and objectives; thus making the scope more tangible for the project team. All the APs stated that the key critical success factor of Agile lies in its ability to react to change in a systematic and structured way. Furthermore, according to AP3, it creates more efficiency in PM, as needless activities are rejected. The APs shared the common experience that they had always received high customer satisfaction when they applied an Agile method to a project. AP1 related that to the short cycles where parts are delivered and feedback is received. AP2 explained that the customers are highly satisfied because they can see how it [the project] grows, they see where it grows and they can influence it. All the APs concluded that Agile methods are best in dynamic project environments. This was neatly summarized by AP 4 as follows: if my environment is dynamic or if it becomes more and more dynamic, Agile becomes more and more important. Where my environment is static it [Agile] might be that it harms. In terms of barriers and limits, some of the PMPs stated that they are already working with Agile paradigms. However, its applicability to construction projects was seen as problematic. PMP3 stated that: changes are not welcome at each stage of the project, because it is difficult to explain to the clients, landlords or decision makers that they have to decide today about events which will occur after year. For instance the building structure has to be calculated from the top
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down, but I am building from the bottom up. Therefore the structural engineer needs to know the loads of the top today. The APs also identified barriers and limits. AP2 explained that Agile methods are limited if the task gets too big, for example if there are a large number of project team members. AP4 stated that if one operates within a highly bureaucratic project environment, like in Germany, then it is difficult to synchronize with Agile, because it requires a complete new organizational structure. All the APs agreed that the largest barrier to the implementation of Agile methods is the attitude of the Client. AP2 explained this as the difficulty of telling the Client that we do not undertake planning, we just do it.
5. DISCUSSION
The literature review and the findings from the interviews confirm that Lean is best at dealing with high volume and repeated tasks whilst Agile methods are best suited to high variety and highly complex projects or tasks. The interview data highlights that a construction project can be viewed as various tasks in different phases. The phases with the highest effort are design and execution, but the operational phase is crucial due to its length and often high proportion of life cycle costs. There is a consistency of opinion that Lean is best in the execution phase and Agile is more applicable for the design phase. This could lead to the conclusion that the Leagile decoupling point model should be applied i.e. the design phase is managed with Agile values and the execution with Lean. PM would still exist with its tools and methods, but would operate more on the strategic level. The Lean and Agile approaches would complement the strategic PM by focusing on the operational level. This has not so far been applied to construction, but seems like a good approach, in theory. The design phase of construction is characterized by changing requirements and non-routine working, which fits to the conditions for the application of Agile. However, in a construction project there are also different contributors from different companies, caused by the fragmented nature of the industry. Therefore it cannot be generalized that the design phase could always apply Agile principles, because it depends on the project type, size and number of contributors. The execution phase of a construction project starts with diverse complex tasks, and as time progresses these tasks become more routine and repetition can eventually be identified. This contrasting mix of activities during the execution phase creates a need for Lean, but with Agile values. Therefore Lean needs to be complemented by Agile, i.e. it needs to be AgiLean. When there is a phase, work package or a task in which a separation between Lean and Agile is not possible the Leagile decoupling point model is of limited use. It is not possible to define where to start with Lean and where to continue with Agile, or vice versa. This is the starting point at which Lean needs to become more flexible, where it needs to be agitated and become more Agile, i.e. AgiLean. An example of this could be Building Information Modeling [BIM], which can be interpreted as a Lean tool for construction i.e. visualization. However, if there are changes in the design, there will be changes in the BIM system. This influences the Lean approach, as the process of executing has already been mapped. Therefore an
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approach is required which makes BIM more flexible, which allows BIM to react to changes in a structured way. A way of achieving this could be to combine Scrum with BIM. This is one example of the AgiLean method at the operational level. In this sense the term AgiLean is carefully chosen, as preferable to the other alternative, Leagile. The notion that the authors are presenting is that the foundation is Lean, but that in some situations, Lean needs to be agitated, as stated above, i.e. become more irregular and rapid (Agile) hence AgiLean. To enable the PM to decide when to use the Lean or Agile paradigm, the authors have modified the product-process-matrix, which was developed by Slack et al. (2008), to produce an AgiLean Matrix. This is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1: AgiLean Matrix
The AgiLean Matrix gives a transparent overview to the PM about when to use the Lean or Agile paradigms, or if one should use either paradigm at all. The evaluation is based on the characteristics of the phases, tasks or situations. As shown in Figure 1, if the flow is intermittent, the task diverse/complex, variety high and volume low then Agile is appropriate as shown by (A). Conversely, with continuous flow, repeated/divided tasks, low variety and high volume, Lean is used (B). However, there are situations where there is more fluidity in terms of the characteristics of flow, tasks, variety and volume. This fluidity may be evident in a particular phase of the project, be it the design, execution or operational phase. In these situations (C in figure 1) AgiLean is appropriate.
6. CONCLUSION
The assumption that introducing new management paradigms, such as Lean and Agile, means that former approaches need to be rejected is not shared by the authors of this paper. We propose that as well as developing new management paradigms, traditional and
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universal PM methods have to be an essential element of managing construction. However, such methods should focus at the strategic rather than at the operative level. The concept of Leagile suggests combining Agile with Lean, through using the Decoupling Point Model. We argue that the phase-based implementation of Leagile might be too complex. Hence, we propose that the management style should be adaptable, in order to be able to cope with the project dynamics which causes changes over the project lifecycle. To enable transparent decision making on when to use which Lean or Agile, or either should be used at all, we have conceptualized an AgiLean Matrix. AgiLean merges Lean methods with those of Agile, in order to make Lean more flexible. AgiLean PM builds on the strengths and addresses the weaknessess of both Lean and Agile through a process of synthesisation. It keeps universal PM methdologies at the strategic level. AgiLean results in a PM method with the 3 key benefits: 1) a PM approach which is a synthesis of existing tools; 2) the adoption of Lean principles in terms of waste and the pursuit perfection; 3) the adoption of Agile principles to enable reaction to change.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Howell, G. A. (1999). What Is Lean Construction. Proceedings IGLC-7 (pp. 110). Berkley: University of California Berkley. Hunt, J. (2006). Agile Software Construction. London: Springer Verlag. Iacocca Institute. (1992). 21st Century Manufacturing Enterprise Strategy Report. Bethlehem: Lehig University. Kettunen, P. (2009). Adopting key lessons from agile manufacturing to agile software product development A comparative study. Technovation, 29(6), 408422. Koskela, L. (1992). Application of the new production philosophy to construction. Stanford: Center For Integrated Facility Engineering Stanford University. Koskela, L. (2000). An exploration towards a production theory and its application to construction. Helsinky: Technical Research Center of Finnland. Krafcik, J. F. (1988). Triumph of the Lean Production System. Sloan Management Review, 30(1), 4152. Lewis, M. A. (2000). Lean production and sustainable competitive advantage. International Jorunal of Operatioons & Production Management, 20(8), 959978. Liker, J. K. (2004). The Toyota Way: 14 Management Principles from the World's Greatest Manufacturer. New York: McGraw-Hill. Mason-Jones, R., Naylor, B., & Denis, R. T. (2000). Engineering the leagilen supply chain. International Journal of Agile Management Systems, 2(1), 5461. Naim, M., Naylor, J., & Barlow, J. (1999). Developing lean and agile supply chains in the UK housebuilding industry. International Group for Lean Construction 7 (pp. 159170). Berkeley: IGLC. Narasimham, R., Swink, M., & Kim, S. W. (2006). Disentangling leanness and gility: An emperical investigation. Journal of Operations Management, 24(5), 440457. Naylor, B. J., Naim, M. M., & Berry, D. (1999). Leagility: Integrating the lean and agile manufacturing paradigms in the total supply chain. International Journal of Production Economics, 62(1), 107118. Owen, R., & Koskela, L. (2006a). Agile Construction Project Management. 6th International Postgraduate Research Conference in the Built and Human Environment (pp. 2233). Delft: University of Salford. Owen, R., & Koskela, L. (2006b). An Agile Step Forward in Project Management. 2nd Specialty Conference on Leadership and Management in Construction and Engineering (pp. 216224). Grand Bahama: ASCE. Owen, R., Koskela, L., Henrich, G., & Codinhoto, R. (2006). Is agile project management applicable to construction? International Group for Lean in Construction 14 (pp. 5166). Santiago,Chile: IGLC. Slack, N., Chambers, S., Johnson, R., & Betts, A. (2008). Operations and process management principles and practice for strategic impact (2nd ed.). Harlow: Pearson Education. van Hoek, R. I. (2000). The thesis of leagility revisited. International Journal of Agile Management Systems, 2(3), 196201. Williams, T. M. (1999). The need for new paradigms for complex projects. International Journal of Project Management, 17(5), 269273. Womack, J. P., & Jones, D. T. (2003). Lean Thinking Banish Waste and create Wealth in Your Corporation (2nd ed.). London: Simon & Schuster. Womack, J. P., Jones, T. J., & Roos, D. (1990). The machine that changed the world. New York: Rawson Associates.
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SUBCONTRACTING IN CROATIAN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

Zlata Dolaek-Alduk, Ksenija ulo, Mario Gali Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Civil Engineering Osijek, Croatia, zlatad@gfos.hr, kculo@gfos.hr, mgalic@gfos.hr
Abstract Transformation of Croatian economy, including the field of construction industry, has confronted Croatia with some very difficult tasks. In addition to thorough changes in the proprietary relations, the transition includes some other changes in the size and in the organizational form of the enterprises. Great efforts are required in the transition to market economy and in the transformation of the economic system with the final goal to join the modern global trends. In terms of reorganization and transformation, Croatian construction industry tends towards the disintegration of large construction companies into a number of small, privately owned, highly specialized enterprises. The increase in the number of registered enterprises in the field of construction industry is accompanied by the decline in the total number of workers and by the decline of the average number of workers in enterprises. Such changes in the structure of construction enterprises have led to the fact that there is almost no firm that could completely carry out complex construction projects. The specialization of construction enterprises made it necessary for them to subcontract and to cooperate with each other very closely. The paper deals with the problem of different variants of subcontracting in Croatian construction industry. The paper presents the positive and negative features of each subcontracting variant. Keywords: construction industry, number of workers, subcontracting, subcontracting management.
1. INTRODUCTION CROATIAN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

The last ten year period of Croatian economy's dynamic growth was significantly supported by the construction sector. During that period construction sector achieved considerable share in GDP growth (Figure 1) [1]. It must be stated that there was a high level of investment activity of the state sector (intensive construction of transport infrastructure, particularly highways network, sports halls, pipelines, housing by public housing sector, etc.). Apart from the increased share of construction in GDP (from 4.5 in 2002 to 7.0% in 2009) there were positive effects on employment as well as the development of supporting activities: building materials industry, wood industry, transportation and trade and business services. In these
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years major infrastructure projects in the field of road construction was one of the main levers of expansion of construction in the overall economic structure. The real estate market also recorded a dynamic growth.
8,0 shear in GDP - construction sector 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 4,5 5,4 5,7 5,6 5,9 6,0 6,2
7,0 5,8
2009
2010
Figure 1: Share of GDP Construction sector
At the same time reorganization of the Croatian economy, new market relations and privatization have significantly influenced the management technology in construction sector. In organization theory, the size of the company is one of the main determinants of internal organizational dynamics that determines the available strategies for integrating the company in the broader context of inter-organizational relations [2].
2. ORGANIZATION CHANGES IN CROATIAN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

2.1. Changes in structure and property relations In the pre-transition period, Croatia had a great number of workers employed in a small number of large socially owned construction firms. Such unwieldy organizations had great difficulty in adjusting to the situation on the market and to the newly emerged situation. Being inert and tardy, they could hardly compete with small and medium-size, adjustable enterprises with much lower fixed expenses and thus also much lower cost price. In terms of reorganization and transformation, Croatian construction industry tends towards the disintegration of large construction companies into a number of small, privately owned, highly specialized enterprises [3]. The increase in the number of registered enterprises in the field of construction industry is accompanied by the decline in the total number of workers and by the decline of the average number of workers in enterprises [4, 8]. This situation is presented in table 1 and in figure 2.
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Year 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
Number of registered construction enterprises 24 675 24 011 23 651 22 937 17 616 16 331 14 769 13 602 12 735 12 146
Total number of workers employed in construction industry 82 189 91 052 104 978 108 260 100 761 94 432 85 732 82 391 78 607 72 077
Average number of workers 3,33 3,81 4,44 4,72 5,72 5,78 5,80 6,06 6,17 5,93
Table 1: Changes in the number of enterprises, in the number of employed workers and in the average number of workers employed in Croatian construction industry (20022011)
25000
110000 100000
20000 number of registrated enterprises
90000 80000
15000 60000 50000 10000 40000 30000 5000 20000 10000 0 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 0
Figure 2: Changes in the number of workers employed in construction industry in relation to the number of enterprises (20022012)
Simultaneously with the fragmentation of enterprises and with the transformation of the structure of construction industry, the average number of workers employed per one construction firm is significantly declining. While in 2008 the average number of employed workers was 6, in 2008 the number dropped to 5 workers, and today it dropped further to 3 workers. To prevent operation of construction companies which often have no employees or only one employee, working with no equipment and cost, and often submitting unrealistic bids to win contracts, the Ministry of Construction and Physical Planning issued the
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number of workers
70000
Ordinance on Granting Approval to Commence Construction activities (Official Gazette 43/09) [5]. Among other provisions, the Ordinance defines the criteria in terms of number of skilled workers and number of engineers fulfilling the conditions for site engineer that construction company has to fulfil in order to become licensed contractor for a certain building group or work group (Table 2).
Total number of registered approvals 54
Structure/work group
Explanation of groups
Building group A
Building group B
Building group C
Building group D
Building group E
Building group F
Building group G
Work group H
Work group I
Public purpose buildings with a contract value exceeding EUR 7.000.000.00 and employing not less than 300 persons, with at least 10 fulfilling the conditions for a site engineer. Non-public purpose buildings with a contract value exceeding EUR 7.000.000 and employing not less than 200 persons, with at least 10 fulfilling the conditions for a site engineer. Building with a contract value not exceeding EUR 7.000.000 and employing not less than 120 persons, with at least 3 fulfilling the conditions for a site engineer. Buildings with a contract value not exceeding EUR 6.000.000 and employing not less than 80 persons, with at least 2 fulfilling the conditions for a site engineer. Buildings of a contract value not exceeding EUR 5.000.000 and employing not less than 60 persons, with at least 1 fulfilling the conditions for a site engineer. Buildings of a contract value not exceeding EUR 3.000.000 and employing not less than 30 persons, with at least 1 fulfilling the conditions for a site engineer. Buildings with a contract value not exceeding EUR 1.500.000 and employing not less than 15 persons, with at least 1 fulfilling the conditions for a site engineer. Individual works which include removal of structures, with not less than 8 employees, of which at least 1 fulfils the conditions for a head of specific works. Less complex works with not less than 2 employees, of which at least 1 fulfils the conditions for a foreman or a group leader.
16
122
75
80
426
380
1152
2546
Table 2: The overview of buildings and number of approvals to carry out construction activities
Such changes in the structure of construction enterprises have led to the fact that there is almost no firm that could completely carry out complex construction projects. The specialization of construction enterprises made it necessary for them to subcontract and to cooperate with each other very closely. It is expected that more specialist contractors will be employed in modern, sustainable building with complex technology and materials [6]. Three types of subcontracting categories can be observed:
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subcontracting the construction activities; subcontracting labour the construction sector is to some extent labour-intensive, it demands a relatively large proportion of workers (skilled or unskilled); subcontracting specialized works.
3. THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR SUBCONTRACTING IN CROATIA

Although the practice of subcontracting in the construction sector is common practice in many jurisdictions the issue of subcontracting is not legally regulated. Civil laws often contain only general provisions on the possibility of entrusting the execution of obligations to a third party, but dont contain any details about the relationships that occur during the subcontracting. In practice, the term subcontracting is used in at least two senses. Industrial subcontracting where one manufacturer (the client) commissions from another manufacturers parts, assemblies or sub-assemblies of a product that is later incorporated into an industrial product. In another sense, subcontracting is practiced in construction works [7]. The legal framework for subcontracting in Croatia is the Law of Obligations (Official Gazette 35/05). Under the Law, the contractor, unless otherwise is agreed, is entitled to engage the third party to perform the contracted job, without the special permission of the client. In international practice, the issue of subcontracting is regulated in a way that gives the contractor the right to hire subcontractors only with the consent of the client. The third party which the contractor undertakes to carry out some work has a separate contractual relationship with the contractor. Such a contractual relationship subcontracting has no legal relationship with the client (Figure 3). It only regulates the relationship between the contractor and the third party (subcontractors). Client
Contractor
Subcontractor
Figure 3: Relations in contracting and subcontracting
Subcontracting is inevitable in construction contracts for several reasons. From the standpoint of the contractor, subcontracting is necessary in performing specialized work often entrusted to specialized craftsmen and small businesses. In this case, the outsourcing contractor carries a more rational business. From the standpoint of the client, he thus avoids making a number of separate contracts requiring coordination of their mutual work. In
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subcontracting relations the subcontractor is responsible for its work to the contractor, not to the client. According to the Law on Obligations the contractor is responsible for persons he employed to execute the work committed by him as the work was done by himself.
4. SUBCONTRACTING IN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

Associated risks such as failure to fulfil contractual obligations, blocking funds, freezing assets in stocks piled up, the necessity of using overtime or hiring of seasonal workers have significant influence on the decision of management of construction companies to subcontract the work or take the risk of self-realization of the project. Construction companies, fragmented during the ownership transition process, are increasingly becoming aware of their inability to acquire and possess the technology and specialist work force required for execution of complex construction contracts On the other hand, a number of highly specialized companies are not able to independently contract large and demanding projects. Thus, subcontracting, as a method of using others specialized capacity is a necessity. Subcontracting is often the only way to achieve a given production volume under the given conditions and time, but gives little room for control by the main contractor. The main contractor selects subcontractors and is responsible for the quality of their work and meeting deadlines of construction and is obliged to coordinate their work. At first glance, subcontracting is a good decision, but a more scrutinized analysis can identify the deficiencies and risks in this type of operations: General Contractor must have confidence in his subcontractors because of his obligation to comply with the provisions of the contract and because of limited knowledge he has about capabilities of subcontractors workers. Subcontracting prevents continuous training and education of workers. During execution of the contract, each subcontractor carries risk and lower levels of control of the main contractor. Also, the legal relationships established through subcontracts are very complex because they cover three sides of which two are not the direct legal relationship (client and subcontractors).
5. CONCLUSIONS
The new market relations and privatization have significantly influenced the business of construction companies. The transition resulted in decomposition of large enterprises in a number of smaller, highly specialized ones. Because of recession in the building market, construction companies are forced to strictly control their costs and because of uncertain future they use short-term employment contract and lease needed equipment instead of buying it. Fragmentation and specialization of construction companies has brought about significant changes in contracting. Since there are only a very few big companies able to
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contract entire work, outsourcing and subcontracting have become the way of life in construction industry. Even the new Law on Public Procurement has recognized the new trends and the previous restrictions in subcontracting have been lifted, i.e. the main contractor is now allowed to employ subcontractors for the entire contract.
REFERENCES
Republika Hrvatska, Dravni zavod za statistiku, Statistiki ljetopisi 20062011 (available on http://www.dzs.hr, visited April, 4, 2012) http://oliver.efri.hr/~euconf/2009/docs/Session5/8%20Kastelan%20Sokolic%20Vretenar.pdf, (Kastelan Mrak, M.; Sokolic, D. And Vretenar, N. Firm growth dynamics in Croatia after 2000.), visited April 18, 2012. ulo, K. 1995. Metodoloko i trokovno stajalite podugovaranja u graevinarstvu. Ekonomski pregled, Vol. 46, No 78, pp. 554563. ulo, K. and Dolaek, Z., 2000. Management i tehnologija podugovaranja u graevinskom poslovanju. Informatologia, Vol. 33, No. 34, pp. 135265. Pravilnik o suglasnosti za zapoinjanje obavljanja djelatnosti graenja (NN 43/09) Ohnuma, D. K., Pereira, S. R. and Cardoso, F. F., 2000. The role of subcontractors in the competitiveness of building companies and the integration of value chains. Proceedings of the CIB W92 Procurement System Symposium, Santiago, Chile, April 2427, 2000, pp 201217. Vukmir, B., 2009. Ugovori o graenju i uslugama savjetodavnih inenjera. RRIF, Zagreb http://hgk.biznet.hr/hgk/fileovi/19299.pdf (HGK, Sektor za graditeljstvo i komunalno gospodarstvo, Hrvatsko graditeljstvo, visited April 18, 2012)
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MODELLING THE PARAMETRIC CONSTRUCTION PROJECT COST ESTIMATE USING ANN

Dr. Nabil Ibrahim El Sawalhi The Islamic University, Gaza, Palestine, E-Mail: nsawalhi@iugaza.edu.ps
Abstract
Cost estimation has its proven importance as one of essential factors for project success. The aim of this research is to predict the early project cost estimating using Neural Network. Early project cost estimates represent a key component in business unit decisions. The most important factors effecting the parametric cost estimation in construction building projects in Gaza Strip were defined and investigated. A questionnaire survey and relative index ranking technique were used to conclude the most important factors. 14 most effective factors were identified. 106 Case studies from real executed construction project in Gaza Strip were collected for training and testing the model. The cases were prepared to be used in cost estimate Neural Networks model. 80 % of case studies were used to train and test the model. The remaining 20 % was used for model verification. The results revealed the ability to the model to predict cost estimate to an acceptable degree of accuracy. The minimum squares error with 0.005 in training stage and 0.021 in testing stage were recorded.
Keywords: cost estimating, parametric, modeling, neural networks.
1. INTRODUCTION
Effective project management techniques are important to ensure successful project performance. A poor strategy or incorrect budget or schedule forecasting can easily turn an expected profit into loss. Conceptual cost estimates are important to project feasibility studies and impact upon final project success. Such estimates provide significant information that can be used in project evaluations, engineering designs, cost budgeting and cost management (Cheng et al., 2010). Earlier cost planning is started on; the more suitable results are obtained. Several cost estimation and calculation models can be used during construction process; beginning with the conception phase of the construction project and the schematic design, design development, construction documents phases respectively. However, building cost estimation is an important issue due to the incomplete nature of the project data in the schematic design phase (Yamen and Tas, 2007).
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Cost is one of the major criteria in decision making at the early stages of a building design process. The cost of a building is impacted significantly by decisions made at the design phase. While this influence decreases through all phases of the building project, the committed costs increase (Gunaydn, 2004). Due to the limited availability of information during the early stages of a project, construction managers typically leverage their knowledge, experience and standard estimators to estimate project costs. As such, intuition plays a significant role in decision making. Researchers have worked to develop cost estimators that maximize the practical value of limited information in order to improve the accuracy and reliability of cost estimation work and thus enhance the suitability of resultant designs and project execution work (Cheng et al., 2010). The factors influencing construction costs were formed into four groups/layers; projectspecific factors, client-contractor related factors, competition and market conditions, and finally macroeconomic and political factors. The usefulness of each group of factors is in explaining regional cost increase disparities breaks down to whether the impact of these factors is confined to a specific project, region, or the whole country. Project characteristic and client requirements such as size and quality could influence both the amount and the unit prices of the input resources needed to undertake a project and could increase the direct cost portion of the estimated construction costs. Import of materials and labor mobility may resolve shortages of resources (Abukar Warsame, 2006). One of the most important issues is updating unit cost of the composite element alternatives in the database due to the inflation. However, the unit cost of the building operational units and composite element alternatives can easily be updated, as the cost calculation system of the software is based on current prices of inputs (i.e. material, equipment and labor unit prices (Yaman and Tas, 2007). The level of competition and construction activity influences the cost of inputs and could also have an enormous impact on indirect costs. Macroeconomic and political factors such as inflation and interest rate fluctuations as well as labor laws, general labor conflict and building regulations can impose heavy costs and delays in a building project (Abukar Warsame, 2006).
2. NEURAL NETWORKs (NNs)

Neural Networks (NNs) have the capability to learn (Bishop, 1995; Boussabaine, 1996; Albrino and Garavelli, 1998; Haykin, 1999; BeeHua, 2000). ANNs are in fact computer systems that simulate the learning effect of the human brain and are typically composed of a number of neurons, grouped in one or more hidden layers connected by means of synapse connections. ANNs are inspired to the human brain functionality and structure, which can be represented as a network of densely interconnected elements called neurons. The connections between neurons are called synapses and could have different levels of
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electrical conductivity, which is referred to as the weight of the connection (Cavalieri et al., 2004). Cost estimation involves taking proposed dimensions, attributes, and other factors, and merges these constraints with knowledge of the past to develop an estimated cost for an object. One major benefit of using an ANN is its ability to understand and simulate complex functions including those dimensions, attributes, and other factors. Neural networks can be used to create more complex functions than older methods such as linear regression, making the amount of data available increasingly important (Gary, 2010). ANNs have good potential in their ability to create complex models and provide a superior cost estimate compared to estimation methods such as linear regression. An accurate estimation of construction cost is crucial in construction projects for budgeting, planning, and monitoring for compliance with the clients available budget, time and work outstanding. In cost estimation, the experience of the estimator and the project information are significant factors. Therefore, parametric cost estimation models are very useful in the early stage of a projects life cycle when little information is known about the projects scope. These parametric cost estimation models include historical data that are currently used in practice as well as new data specific to a new project (Cavalieri et al., 2004). An ANN creates an optimal model that is general in nature and produces a small mean square error for data that was not in the training set has large impact on its performance (Prechelt, 1998). ANNs have been applied to almost every application area where a data set is available and a good solution is sought. ANNs can cope with noisy data, missing data, imprecise or corrupted data, and still produce a good solution (Nikola, 1998). Among supervised learning artificial neural networks multilayer perceptron (MLP) with back propagation algorithm achieved popularity in numerous research areas. One of the reasons for this was that it is a pioneer artificial neural network which showed promise to solve ill-defined, complicated, complex problems which are hard to describe in mathematical formula or expression. Figure 1: shows the typical three layered back propagation Neural Network architecture.
Figure 1: Neural network back propagation model
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The number of nodes directly affects the networks ability to learn and generalize the desired function. If there are too many nodes, the network will memorize the input data and provide poor generalization (Prechelt, 1998). If there are too few nodes the network will not be able to fully learn and will provide poor results for the training and testing data. The number of hidden nodes used is typically decided through a process of trial and error, and has a large impact on the networks performance. Some research has shown that the difference between 4 and 16 hidden nodes affected the error value by only three percent (Shlub et al., 1999). In general, multi-layer perceptions in the stage (training or learning phase) are fed with sample data (training data) which contain the required target output thus, it is possible to let a penalty-based learning function change the network parameters (supervised learning). In the second stage (the application phase) a new vector is the input and the output is to be obtained by the network. In general, the goal of NN training is to determine the mapping from the training data. However, a small error during training does not necessarily imply good generalization; that is, good performance with data not seen before (problem of over training data). The number of output and input nodes depends on the number of elements of the output vector and of the input vector. The number of hidden nodes can, in principle, be selected freely. However, NNs perform differently with different numbers of hidden nodes. To date, there is no reliable method to determine the optimal number of hidden nodes. Research results are able to suggest upper and lower bounds for the number of hidden nodes for narrowly defined application cases. The other suggestions by Nikola, (1998) involved on how to choose network parameters in a situation where the training set is clustered in groups with similar features. The number of these groups can be used to choose the number of hidden layers, the minimum number of hidden nodes should be h (p1) / (n+2), where p is the number of the training examples and n is the number of the inputs of the networks (Bode, 1998). NNs are robust; they are able, within limits, to deal with inexact or missing data. However, the appropriateness of the result depends on the type of application and the architecture of the network. Another property is the robustness of NNs against physical failure of a single component. The low level of complexity and the small number of training samples allow NNs to run on a single microcomputer (Cavalieri et al., 2004).
3. METHODOLOGY
A questionnaire survey was conducted to identify the most important factors affecting the parametric project cost estimation. 14 factors were identified as the most important factors using relative importance index. 106 case studies from real implemented construction projects were collected. The collected cases were used to build up NNs model to predict parametric cost estimation.
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The modeling phase includes the design of the NN architecture. It is a complex and dynamic process that requires the determination of the internal structure and rules (i.e., the number of hidden layers and neurons and the type of activation function). The model is designed according to the type of the data and the response required by the application, the sequence for building the model were used: Data collection, fitting the data, Training process, Create random initial values of weights, Choose the pair of training from selected training group, Calculate the network output, Calculate the error between output and the desired output, Adjust the weights of the network according to the resulting error, Error < accepted value. Did the training pairs finished?, Cross validation. Once the project cost most important factors have been defined, it is necessary to evaluate the consistency of the available data, in terms of measurability, reliability and completeness (i.e. real information content). In particular, with regard to the last point, data could result in being not suitable or not sufficient for the purpose "which inevitably leads to recycles on the previous phases or they could be redundant" which causes inefficiencies. Data analysis has revealed the main input parameters to be used in the modeling and training of the network. These parameters were the predominant cost drivers of the case examples. They defined the buildings formal characteristics and the amount of material required for the structural and architectural construction of the building. The total area bears a strong relation to the total cost of the building data analysis and identification of the design variables.
3.1 Model building An important issue to be resolved when applying NNs to a problem is to determine which training procedure to adopt. There are many other alternative paradigms to choose from. The back propagation algorithm which belongs to the realm of supervised learning is the most widely used training technique for problems similar to the current study "construction estimate". This algorithm has been shown to be theoretically sound, performs well in modeling nonlinear functions, and is simple to code. Additional to the activation law regulating the weight adjustment among the neurons, which is the hyperbolic tangent function explained in the modeling phase, another fundamental rule of the network is the learning law. All trial models experimented in this study was trained in a supervised mode by a back-propagation learning algorithm. Accordingly, the connection weights are modified continuously until the error between the desired output and the model output is minimized and the modeler has decided on the size of the training set and training type, learning rate and momentum coefficients, network architecture, and the number of iterations for achieving best model outputs (Gunaydn, 2004). For each data set, the data was randomized. The networks were trained multiple times to increase the probability of producing a set of good initial weights in the model. Each training run is stopped when one of the following three conditions was met:
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1) The maximum number of epochs was reached. 2) The cross validation error started increasing, or 3) A very large number of epochs without improvement in error are reached. For the purposes of this research, the suitable number of epochs, giving the network sufficient time to learn without overwhelming computing resources and time were allocated. The network was set to stop learning after 250 epochs without improvement. This limits the required computation time while assuring that the network has not reached a local minimum. Cross validation was used in all NN runs to avoid over-learning (Gary, 2010).
3.2 Cross validation The process of cross validation removes the risk of the network memorizing the data (Smith and Mason, 1997). Cross validation uses its own data set to monitor the NNs ability to produce generalized cost estimates. For all output-analysis iterations, the results for the cross validation set are also analyzed. The network continues to learn as the error for the cross validation data set and the training data set continue to decrease. Once the error for the cross validation data set starts to increase, the training stops and the weight values that provided the lowest error for the cross validation data set are considered optimal (Gary, 2010).
3.3. Network architecture and the learning algorithm A simple feed-forward network consists of three layers. The first is a layer of input units whose input corresponds to the data of the problem to be solved. The input layers feed, through variable weight connections, the second or hidden layer units. These units in turn feed the units of the output (or third) layer through variable weight connections. The network learns by a process of adjusting the values of the weights. This is done by means of a back-propagation algorithm that allows error corrections to be passed through the layers.
3.4. Model alternatives Four alternatives of the ANN model were made in order to minimize error of the estimating process. The alternatives dependent on the number of the hidden layers and the distribution of the sample on the model building stages "training, testing and holdout. The network was run again with the altered input value and the difference in the result was calculated. The attribute value continued to be changed and the network ran until the range of interest had been covered. The result values could then be graphed to show how the output was affected by that particular attribute, the scenarios as the following:
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The first scenario was one hidden layer and 70%, 20% and 10% for training, testing and holdout respectively. The second scenario was one hidden layer and 60%, 20% and 20% for training, testing and holdout respectively. The third scenario was two hidden layer and 70%, 20% and 10% for training, testing and holdout respectively. The fourth scenario was two hidden layer and 60%, 20% and 20% for training, testing and holdout respectively.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The study population consists of Contractors, Clients and Consultants working in building works in Gaza Strip. The distribution of questionnaire sample according to their work is depicted in Figure 1.
Figure 1: The distribution of study sample according to the type of work
Figure 2 shows the distribution of the sample according to the respondents position. The obtained result shows that the 39 respondents were distributed according to their position as follow: (6) company's owners, (20) site engineers, (11) project managers and (2) others. From this Figure it is clear that the majority of contractors/clients/consultants are site engineers that could be a benefit for the study as site engineer has high interaction with costs and prices.
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Figure 2: The distribution of the sample according to position
In Table 1, the results of 14 most important factors are illustrated. The first important factor for Skelton work is Number of stores with Relative Impotence Index (RII) of 88.28%.
The most important factor related to finishes works is Volume of HVAC with RII of 92.41. It should be noted that although this factor have the highest RII, it is rarely used in building in the Gaza Strip. Factors related to structural skeleton works FACTOR Number of stores Type of foundation type of units Number of elevator Area of typical floor Number of columns area of ground floor Factors related to finishes works Volume of HVAC Type of tiling Type of electrical Quantity of electrical Quantity of water & sanitary Type of painting Type of water & sanitary Number of external door RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 14 RII (WEIGHT) 88.28% 83.45% 74.48% 68.28% 67.59% 66.21% 62.76% 92.41% 84.83% 80.69% 80.00% 79.31% 78.62% 77.93% 53.10%
Table 1: Factors affecting cost estimation in Construction Building Project
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The results of questionnaire survey revealed that there are 14 factors affecting projects cost estimate. The weights of these factors were identified using Relative Importance factors (RII). Table 1 illustrates the most effective cost estimate factors. All factors were normalized to be processed into the NN modeling system. The most important independent variable is number of stores as shown in Table 2. 106 real case studies of construction cost for building projects has been collected and processed to be suitable to use in Statistical Program for Social Services (SPSS) formatting as coding and variables shortcut. Input Layer Number of Stores Type of Foundation Number of Elevator Area of Typical Floor Number of Columns Area of Ground Floor Type of Soil Volume of HVAC Type of Tiling Type of Electrical Quantity of Electrical Quantity of Water &Sanitary Type of Painting Type of Water & Sanitary Type of External Plastering .066
Table 2: Independent variable importance
Relative Importance (RII) .088 .061 .059 .052 .067 .083 .068 .037 .087 .082 .065 .050 .053 .083
Normalized Importance 100.0% 69.4% 67.8% 59.9% 76.8% 95.0% 77.7% 42.0% 99.7% 94.0% 74.0% 56.6% 60.1% 94.4% 75.0%
After all data has entered and processed, the cost was assigned as dependent variable and all other factors were assigned as independent variable. The project samples were divided to three parts "training, testing and holdout" with different percentage to get the optimum results with minimum error. The number of hidden layers was alternated between one and two hidden layer. Also, the number of unites alternated between automatically and custom
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assigned for each layer. The activation function of hidden layer was assigned as sigmoid function to be consistent with the scale of independent variables; the activation function of hidden layer was assigned as identity to be consistent with the scale of dependent variables. The training process was assigned as batch type to get the optimum results, finally the cases with user-missing values on factors was excluded. Table 3 depicts the number of cases that was processed in each case. No. 61 21 22 104 2 106
Table 3: Case processing summary
Sample Training Testing Holdout Valid Excluded Total
Percent% 58.7% 20.2% 21.2% 100%
The data was processed in four scenarios with all different alternatives combinations to get the minimum error. In all network stages, the sum of squares error was observed as the criteria of the network. A warning was appeared on all scenarios for the type of units as constant and has no effect on the network performance. The most appropriate option and results for the model structure are illustrated in Table 4. This scenario was done by assigning two hidden layers with 13 of Units in Hidden Layer one and 10 of Units in Hidden Layer two. Input Layer Factors 1 Number of Units Number of Hidden Layers Number of Hidden Layers Layer 1 a Number of Units in Hidden Layer 2 a Activation Function Dependent Variables 1 Number of Units Rescaling Method for Scale Dependents Activation Function Error Function
Table 4: Case processing summary
Number of Stores 78 2 13 10 Sigmoid Cost in $ 1 Normalized Identity Sum of square errors
Hidden Layer(s)
Output Layer
Table 5 illustrates the most suitable Sum of Squares Error. From the four trials with all data in the network, the third scenario is the best of all as it has the minimum Sum of Squares Error equal to 0.026.
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Input Layer Training
Factors Sum of Squares Error Relative Error Stopping Rule Used
Number of Stores 0.026 0.041 1 consecutive step(s) with no decrees in error 00.00.00.172 0.036 0.298 .946
Testing Holdout
Training Time Sum of Squares Error Relative Error Relative Error

Table 5: Model summary
5. CONCLUSION
An artificial neural network approach has been introduced to predict early cost estimation of the buildings. Early understanding of construction projects conceptual costs are critical for feasibility study of projects. Generally, all parties involved in the construction of a project are in need of reliable information about cost of the project in the early stage of a design. Therefore, a research work was conducted to develop the building construction costs models in the early phase of project. A survey questionnaire was performed to identify the essential factors affecting cost estimation process. 14 most effective factors were selected. The weights of these factors were identified using relative importance index. These factors are used to build up a model for cost estimation. 106 cases were collected from recently completed projects. The costs of influential parameters were identified. The historical data were evaluated and analyzed using artificial neural networks. First, ANNs represented reasonable accuracy of influential inputs identification and construction cost prediction. The second was sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the level of influence of each included parameter in the model. Therefore, the analysis resulted that the number of stories is the most important factor affecting the early cost estimation for buildings and the type of footing is the next in importance. 80 % of case studies data were used to train and test the model. The remaining 20 % was used for verification. The results revealed the ability to the model to predict cost estimate to an acceptable degree of accuracy. The minimum squares error with 0.005 in training stage and 0.021 in testing stage were recorded. It is useful to note that, the neural network approaches can tolerate measurement errors. The artificial neural network approaches can play an important role in the design and development of early stages in cost estimation, and it can be concluded that the trained models of neural networks is reasonably succeeded in predicting the cost estimation of buildings at early stages by just using the basic and fundamental information of the projects without the need to detailed design.
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REFERENCES
Albino, Y. and Garavelli, A., 1998. A neural network application to subcontractor rating in construction firms. International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 16, No.1., pp. 914. Bee-Hua, C., 2000. Evaluating the performance of combining neural networks and genetic algorithms to forecast construction demand: the case of the Singapore residential sector. Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 18, pp. 209217. Bishop, C. M., 1995. Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition. Clarendon Press, Oxford. Boussabaine, A. H., 1996. The use of artificial neural networks in construction management: a review. Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 14, pp. 427436. Bode, J., 1998. Decision support with neural networks in the management of research and development: Concepts and application to cost estimation. Information & Management, Vol. 34, pp.3340. Cavalieri, S., Maccarrone, P. and Pinto, R., 2004. Parametric vs. neural network models for the estimation of production costs: A case study in the automotive industry. International journal of Production Economics, Vol. 91, pp.165177. Chen, H. W. and Chang, N. B., 2002. A comparative analysis of methods to represent uncertainty in estimating the cost of constructing wastewater treatment plants. Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 65, pp. 383409. Cheng M., Tsai H., Sudjono E., 2010. Conceptual cost estimates using evolutionary fuzzy hybrid neural network for projects in construction industry. Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 37, pp. 42244231. Fakulat, W., 1998. Decision support with neural networks in the management of research and development: Concepts and application to cost estimation. Information & Management, Vol. 34, pp. 3340. Gary, R., Helmut, W., John, D., Harry S., and William A.Young 2010. Using Neural Networks with limited data to estimate manufacturing cost. Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Vol. 3, No. 4., pp. 257274. Gunaydn, M., and Dogan, Z., 2004. A neural network approach for early cost estimation of structural systems of buildings. International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 22, pp. 595602. Harding, A., Lowe, D., Hickson, A., Emsley, M. and Duff, R., 1999. Implementation of a neural network model for the comparison of the cost different procurement approaches. Hughes, W (Ed.), 15th Annual ARCOM Conference, pp. 1517. Hakan YAMAN, Elin TA. 2007. A building cost estimation model based on functional elements, Istanbul Technical University, Faculty of Architecture, Istanbul Turkey Haykin, S. 1999. Neural Networks: comprehensive foundation. Prentice Hall, New Jersey, 2nd edition. Nikola K. K., 1998. Foundation of neural Networks. Fussy Systems and Knowledge Engineering. The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts. Prechelt L., 1998. Automatic early stopping using cross validation: quantifying the criteria; Neural Networks,Vol. 11; pp. 761767. Principe, C., Euliano, R., and Lefebvre, C., 1999. Neural and adaptive systems: Fundamentals through simulations with cd-rom, John Wiley & Sons; New York. Shlub, A., and Versand R. 1999. Estimating the cost of steel pipe bending, a comparison between neural networks and regression analysis. International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 62, pp. 201207. Smith, A. E., and Mason, A. K., 1997. Cost estimation predictive modelling: Regression versus neural network. The Engineering Economist, Vol. 42, No. 2., pp. 137161. Warsame, A. 2006. Supplier structure and housing construction costs. Zhang, Y., and Fuh, J., 1998. A neural network approach for early cost estimation of packaging products. Computing Industrial Engineering, Vol. 34, No. 2., pp. 43350.
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JUST IN TIME IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS: A CASE STUDY

B. Er Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey, bayramer@akdeniz.edu.tr A. Kazaz Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey, akazaz@akdeniz.edu.tr S. Ulubeyli Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak, Turkey, serdar.ulubeyli@karaelmas.edu.tr
Abstract Because of highly variable conditions in construction projects, planned and actual schedules rarely overlap. In other words, most of construction projects cannot be completed within the planned time, cost, and quality. Lack of coordination between participants, lack of early contribution of practical experience in the design phase, unstable workflow, and complexity of projects are some of the reasons of overruns. After observing the benefits of Lean Production (LP) to the manufacturing industry, construction industry has started to adapt some management techniques of LP and called it as Lean Construction (LC). Among one of these methods, Just in Time (JIT) introduces some opportunities to optimize construction resources (i.e., labor, material, and equipment) during the production process. In this study, JIT was applied to a real-world project, and the observed benefits were presented. For this objective, a project titled covering 58 pedestrian underpasses with iron structure coated by polycarbonate was examined by applying the JIT technique. Consequently, JIT was found to increase the value of the project and thereby to decrease total project time and cost. Keywords: just in time, lean construction, lean production, project management, pull system.
1. INTRODUCTION
The world-wide oil crisis in early 1970s and the lack of natural resources has lead Japan to make some efforts to reduce wastes for surviving in the international competition (Chapman, 2006). In this context, new production methods have been developed in Japan. Just in Time (JIT), as one of these new methods, was first introduced by Toyota Motor Company (Chapman, 2006; Browne et. al., 1988). Its positive contribution to quality, cost and productivity has attracted the attention of other industries in many countries, and hence, the
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use of this technique has been very popular all around the world. The intended targets with the application of JIT are zero errors, zero setup time, zero inventories, zero maintenance, zero defects, and zero delays (Browne et. al., 1988). The main idea behind the JIT philosophy is to produce a product within the desired quality, amount, and time (Browne et. al., 1988). This product-oriented approach makes JIT applicable for logistics management in construction. The researches related with this topic also prove this idea (Oral et. al., 2003; Pheng and Chuan, 2001; Bertelsen and Nielsen, 1997; Tommelein and Weissenberger, 1999; Pheng and Hui, 1998). The common point of these researches is to eliminate wastes of materials, time, and workforce by delivering materials, precast elements, equipment, and other requirements on time in harmony with the JIT approach. One of the basic principles of JIT is the Pull-System. This system relies on the idea in which a product is timely produced in an amount in accordance with the clients orders or downstream activities needs. Accordingly, JIT can be used not only for logistics management but also for scheduling. As a result, in order to start a downstream activity just in time, upstream activities depending on the downstream activity should also be finished just in time. In addition, the Last Planner System, developed by the Lean Construction Institute in early 1990s as a project planning and management method, suggests using this system for scheduling (Howell and Macomber, 2005). In this regard, activities in a time frame are scheduled backwards, and hence, non-value adding activities are eliminated easily (Ballard, 2000). In this study, JIT was applied to a real-world construction project, and the observed benefits were presented in detail. Towards this aim, a project titled covering 58 pedestrian underpasses with iron structure coated by polycarbonate was examined by applying the JIT technique. Consequently, JIT was found to increase the value of the project and thereby to decrease total project time and cost.
2. CASE STUDY: COVERING 58 PEDESTRIAN UNDERPASSES WITH IRON STRUCTURE COATED BY POLYCARBONATE
The aim of the project considered as a case in this study was to cover 58 pedestrian underpasses with an iron structure coated by polycarbonate (Figures 1 and 2). Key details of this project which was scheduled to complete in two months are summarized below. A total of 58 pedestrian underpasses were available along a 20 kilometers long road in groups of three and four. Distances between these groups were variable, where the shortest was about 200 meters. In a group, two pedestrian underpasses were located in the south side of the road whereas the other one or two in the north side. In the south side of the road, there was a service road in each group of three.
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In the north side of the road, a service road was available for each pedestrian underpass. The width of the road was about 22 meters. The road was divided by a refuge. The road was closed to the pedestrian traffic and the only way of passing the road was to use these underpasses. During the project, the underpasses were not ready to use and it was impossible to pass the road. Generators were used for power generation.
Figure 1: Side view of a covered underpass
In 2008, a similar project was executed for eight pedestrian underpasses in groups of two. The production was made on the job-site because (i) the pedestrian underpasses were close to each other, (ii) the amount of the work was small, (iii) electricity was available, and lastly (iv) there was enough space for deposition. The project was completed by eight workers in four weeks. This means that it took 3.5 days per underpass. Adapting this estimating experience to the new project, 203 days (about seven months) were needed for covering 58 underpasses. This was more than three times of the scheduled time of two months as depicted above. In the new project, on-site production would cause not only time and cost overruns but also quality and safety based problems. Followings are the main complications that could be potentially encountered. For each group, vehicle would have to stop and discharge construction materials it carried, which would be a time consuming activity. The number of materials to be delivered would increase, which would be a time and space consuming activity.
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Because of the availability of only one service road for groups of three, there would not be adequate workspace on that side of the road, increasing the risk of traffic accidents. Between groups, interactive works by helping each other would not be possible since passing the road directly was forbidden. This would increase the total working duration and prevent the collaboration between crews. For each team, a generator would have to be provided, increasing the total cost of the project. Opportunity for working simultaneously would be limited because generators produce limited power. Ground in the construction site was not smooth and in some places iron products was longer than 2 meters. In case of laying them down, this would lead to some shape defects and thus quality related problems. Cutting iron and polycarbonate plates by means of a spiral cutting machine would likely increase some cutting defects, affecting the quality of coverings.
Figure 2: Front view of a covered underpass
In order to overcome these problems, it was decided to utilize the JIT method in this new project. In this context, coverings were manufactured in the workshop and then delivered to the site in the required amount for fitting when needed. First, activities were divided into four groups as iron works in the workshop, iron works in the site, painting works, and coating works. For each group, different crews were formed. Second, the tasks that would be performed in the workshop were decided. In terms of decision-making, movable parts and their weights of the product were the main criteria, together with the capacity of the vehicle. As a result, it was observed that the vehicle could transport three coverings at once if cover products would be manufactured in four pieces (Figure 3).
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Figure 3: Covering pieces manufactured at the workshop
The capacity of the vehicle was the reference point for scheduling. In each day, production of three coverings had to be completed, and thus, approximately 20 days were needed for onsite iron activities. When painting and coating activities were included, it would take 22 days. In this regard, a period of more than a month was allocated for iron works in the workshop. The duration was sufficient. For reducing material wastes and standardizing products, coverings were designed in almost same dimensions. Only dimensions of back parts were variable to some extent (Figure 4). Standard dimensions of raw iron materials allowed cutting more than one piece at once and thereby saving time.
Figure 4: The standard and variable parts of a covering
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In the first four days, materials of 25 coverings were prepared in the workshop. All materials of the coverings were not prepared at once since it was winter. It was assumed that a possible rain would interrupt the work. In order to take advantage of this interruption, it was planned that workers would prepare the remaining materials during this period. Since the work was delayed for nine days due to rain as expectedly, the rest were prepared during this interruption. In the day 5, six coverings were ready to be installed. Thus, one-day float was gained for activities in the workshop. In addition, in order to facilitate and accelerate the production process, joints of four pieces of a covering were welded and then broken in the workshop to easily determine these joints during on-site works. In the next days, four workers manufactured three coverings per day in the workshop, four workers installed three coverings per day in the site, and two painting workers performed their tasks as three coverings per day. Similarly, six workers coated three coverings per day with polycarbonate. Hence, except the interruption by rain, the project was carried out with 16 workers in about five weeks. As a result, considerable time and cost savings were obtained using the JIT technique when compared with the on-site production.
3. CONCLUSIONS
The JIT method provides some advantages when compared with the on-site production. Even if the products are similar, specific characteristics of the construction industry do not allow utilizing every method in every project. In this context, after evaluating the anticipated problems of JIT, it was decided to benefit from it in the present case study. Hence, the following benefits were gained. Manufacturing in the workshop reduced the number of on-site workers. This reduction also decreased the use of equipment such as generators. The number of pieces of coverings to be delivered decreased, increasing the savings concerning time. The required workspace decreased. Because of shifts, there was no waiting time between the activities. Quality-based problems were eliminated and some time was saved thanks to standard dimensions of raw iron materials. Consequently, using JIT in the case study, the project was completed about 5.5 months earlier and approximately 1000 man-days were saved when compared with the on-site production. Accepting the cost of materials constant for two methods, a workmanship saving of about $45,000 was gained by means of JIT.
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REFERENCES
Ballard, G., 2000. Phase Scheduling. Lean Construction Institute, White Paper-7. Bertelsen, S. and Nielsen, J., 1997. Just-In-Time Logistics in the Supply of Building Materials. Paper presented at 1st International Conference on Construction Industry Development: Buildiing the future Together, Singapore. Browne, J., Harhen, J. and Shivnan, J., 1988. Production Management Systems A CIM Perspective. AddisonWesley Publishing Company, pp. 284. Chapman, S.N., 2006. The Fundamentals of Production Planning and Control. Prentice Hall, pp. 288. Howell, G. and Macomber, H., 2005. The Last Planner System: Conversations that Design and Activate The Network of Commitments. Lean Project Consulting, Special Report No.4. Oral, E.L., Mstkoglu, G. and Erdis, E., 2003. JIT in Developing CountriesA Case Study of the Turkish Prefabrication Sector. Building and Environment, Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 853860. Pheng, L. S. and Chuan, C. J., 2001. Just-In-Time Management of Precast Concrete Components. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 127, No. 6, pp. 494502. Pheng, S. L. and Hui, M. S., 1998. The Application of JIT Philosophy to Construction: A Case Study in Site Layout. Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 17, No. 5, pp. 657668. Tommelein, I. D. and Weissenberger, M., 1999. More Just-In-Time: Location of Buffers in Structural Steel Supply and Construction Processes. Paper presented at IGLC-7, Berkeley.
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IMPACTS OF RISKS ON PROJECT SCHEDULING: CAN OPTIMISTIC PROJECT DURATION BE GREATER THAN THE PESSIMISTIC ONE?
Mikls Hajdu, Ph.D. Szent Istvn University, Ybl Mikls Faculty of Architecture and Civil Engineering, hajdu.miklos@ybl.szie.hu
Abstract PERT was the first modern technique of project management that preserved the logic created by the planners. Due to its stochastic nature it soon lost its significance in practice, probably owing to its difficult mathematical background. Recently it has regained its popularity as one of the most important tools of risk management. In order to make it more understandable for a wider audience Monte Carlo analysis is used instead of stochastic calculations. With the help of this method, we create deterministic problems out of stochastic ones, and solve them repetitively in order to create the probability distribution of project duration. According to PERT theory the shortest available project duration lets call it optimistic can be determined by a time analysis using the optimistic activity durations, while the longest lets call it pessimistic project duration can be calculated from a time analysis using the pessimistic activity durations. In this paper we point out the interesting phenomenon that in certain cases project duration can be equal to or even greater than the pessimistic duration and in some cases project duration can be shorter than the optimistic duration. The application of Precedence Diagramming is the reason behind this phenomenon. In the paper we investigate and explain this problem. Keywords: Monte Carlo Simulation, PERT analysis, Precedence Diagramming.
1. INTRODUCTION: PART 1 (PERT)

PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) is the very first technique used for scheduling that could preserve the logic of the planner. It was developed during the second half of the fifties (Malcolm et all. 1959) in order to fasten the development of a missile that could be launched from a submarine. In fact the recognition of project management as a profession/science is mainly a consequence of the Polaris missile program that has led to the development of PERT together with the development of CPM (Critical Path Method) by Du Pont (Kelly and Walker, 1959, 1961,1989). PERT is a stochastic network technique, which is now depicted by a directed graph, where the nodes of the graph stand for the event, while the arcs of it represent the activities of a
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project. An event occurs when all the preceding activities have been accomplished, and only after that the outgoing (succeeding) activities can start. (Figure 1.) In fact events describe the logical dependencies among activities.
Figure 1. PERT dependencies
In this kind of network, only one source node (event without preceding activities) and one finish node (event without succeeding activities) can exist, representing the start and the finish of the project. Loops are not allowed which means that no path exists from the start node to the finish that contains the same node more than once. Due to the nature of the POLARIS research/development project, activity durations could not be defined exactly, uncertainty was too great; therefore a special assumption has been taken for the duration of the activities: originally PERT activity durations were described by beta distribution. To describe the mass function of any chosen activity, giving the most probable duration with the probability of its occurrence, the optimistic duration (the chance for finishing the activity sooner is less than 1%) and the pessimistic duration (the chance for finishing the activity longer is less than 1%) is necessary. The optimistic duration will serve as the a parameter, while the pessimistic one will serve as the b parameter of the beta distribution. Giving these distribution data for all the activities the expected project duration can be defined. The probability that the project will be finished on, or sooner than a predefined project duration could also be defined. The calculations based on the assumption that the mass function of the project duration due to the central limits theorem of the probability theory follows a normal distribution within the range of practical interest. However it was clear that in PERT network the smallest available project duration (with practically zero percent probability) is the one when time analysis is performed with the optimal activity durations and the longest project duration is the one when time analysis is performed with the pessimistic activity durations. Over the decades several embellishments were added to the original model, based on some new stochastic assumptions, like new distributions for activity durations, probabilistic correlations among activities etc., but the original assumptions on the structure of the network, and on the probability mass function about the project duration have remained unaffected.
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Giving exact predictions for the distribution of project durations with different activity mass distributions, and dependencies among the activity distributions made the problem mathematically so difficult, that in practice a new method has emerged to define the probability mass function of the project duration: the Monte Carlo simulation. Using this method activity duration can be defined randomly (according to the mass function of the activities) and then a deterministic time analysis could be performed. Repeating this numerous times the probability mass function of the project duration can be determined.
2. INTRODUCTION: PART II. (PRECEDENCE DIAGRAMMING)

The original PERT has slowly lost his importance due to its strict structure, that is, an activity can only start after the finishing of the preceding ones. Todays project management uses a different technique, called Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM), which allows different precedence relationships among activities. PDM contrarily with PERT is a deterministic network, which means that activity durations can be determined by a single number instead of a probabilistic distribution, and with this, project duration will be a deterministic number based upon a calculation of a longest path from the start to the finish node. This path is called critical path. Precedence Diagramming has been developed in parallel ways. Some of the forerunners are John Fondahl (Fohdahl, 1961), who proposed the activity on node representation to overcome the problems, like dummies, come from of the activity on arrow representation of CPM, or Roy (Roy, 1959, 1961), who developed his method of potentials, an activity on node representation network with minimal and maximal Start-to-Start precedence relation, and the IBM team led by Jim Craig who described the four minimal precedence relations in a user manual of an IBM application. (IBM, 1964) Precedence Diagramming (PDM) (Figure 3) can be depicted as a graph where nodes stand for activities (thats why it is sometimes called as activity-on-node (AON) network) and the arrows of the graph represent the precedence relations between any two activities.
Activity
Activity
Start act.
precedence relationships
Finish act.
Activity
Activity
Figure 3. Precedence Diagramming
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Minimal and maximal precedence relations can be applied in PDM network. The following four minimal precedence relations and any combination of them can be defined between activities: Start-to-Start-z (SSz); Finish-to-Start-z (FSz); Finish-to-Finish-z (FFz); and Start-toFinish-z (SFz). The interpretations of them are given below. Definition 1: A Start-to-Start-z (SSz) relation from activity A to B implies that B can start at least z time after the start of A. (This can be more but never less that is why these relations are called minimal precedence relations.) Explanation of this using network, linear scheduling and logic Gantt representation can be seen on Figure 4. % complete A B at its earliest time z A SSz B time
A SSz B
Figure 4. Start-to-Start-z (SSz) relationship
Definition 2: A Finish-to-Start-z (FSz) relation from activity A to B implies that B can start at least z time after the finish of A. Explanation of this using network, linear scheduling and logic Gantt representation can be seen on Figure 5.
A FSz B
complete A B at its earliest time z

Figure 5. Finish-to-Start-z (FSz) relationship
A FSz B time
Definition 3: A Finish-to-Finish-z (FFz) relation from activity A to B implies that B can finish at least z time after the finish of A. Explanation of this using network, linear scheduling and logic Gantt representation can be seen on Figure 6.
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A FFz B
complete A B at its earliest time z A B FFz time
Figure 6. Finish-to-Finish-z (FFz) relationship
Definition 4: A Start-to-Finish-z (SFz) relation from activity A to B implies that B can Finish at least z time after the start of A. Explanation of this using network, linear scheduling and logic Gantt representation can be seen on Figure 7.
A SFz B
complete A B at its earliest time z

Figure 7. Start-to-Finish-z (SFz) relationship
A B
SFz time
Similarly to PERT or CPM, in Precedence Diagramming only one start and finish node is allowed, and loops are not permitted. Activities must be carried out with the same intensity without interruption, which means that if Si denotes the start of activity i, and Fi denotes the finish of it, and i the duration, then Si+i=Fi. Some very interesting phenomena were observed by Weist (Weist, 1981) on the above defined structure. While it was clear in an activity-on-arrow network (PERT, CPM) that shortening an activity on the critical path will decrease the expected project duration, and greater activity duration will result in a greater project duration (for the sake of simplicity let us assume that there is only one critical path in the network). In case of PDM, Weist characterized the critical activities into four groups according their effects on the critical path. Later Hajdu (Hajdu, 1997) and Vilar and Pilo (Vilar, 2001) have pointed to the fact that this characterization is incomplete and six types of critical activities can be distinguished, which are the followings: normal critical activity: one-day increment results in one-day increment of the critical path, while one-day decrement results in one-day decrement in the length of the critical path.
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neutral critical activity: one-day increment as well as a decrement leave the length of the critical path unaffected. reverse critical activity: one-day decrement results in one-day increment in the length of the critical path, while one-day increment will result in one-day decrement in the length of the critical path. bi-critical activity: one-day increment or decrement result in one-day increment in the length of the critical path decreasing neutral-increasing normal critical activity: one-day decrement leaves the length of the critical path unaffected, while one-day increment will result in a one-day increment of the critical path decreasing reverse-increasing neutral critical activity: one-day decrement will result in one-day increment in the length of the critical path, while one-day increment will leave the length of the path unaffected Several generalizations have been added to Precedence Diagramming through the years, the most important is the development of maximal relationships, which, by the way, were introduced by Roy (Roy, 1959,1961) and were described by Battersby (Battersby, 1970), who called them backward acting relations. Application of maximal relations in a PDM network requires different time analysis. This and the solution of other problems using maximal relations can be found at Hajdu (Hajdu, 1997). Another important generalization of PDM is the introduction of splittable activities ( Hajdu (1997). PDM, without these generalizations, will be the subject of further consideration in the followings.
3. PRECEDENCE PERT
Lets assume a directed, loopless graph with one start and one finish node. Nodes stand for activities, while the arrows of the graph represent the logical relations between the activities. Activities have to be carried out with the same intensity, without interruption, that is activity splitting is not allowed. Duration of an activity can be described by a beta distribution according to the original PERT assumption. Activities are independent; no probabilistic correlation among activity durations exists. Relationships between the activities are the minimal relations of PDM network, that is the four precedence relations and any combination of them are allowed in the network with the restriction that no loops can arise during the definition of precedence relations. Maximal relations are not allowed. In this model we are looking for the expected project duration, and the probability that a project will be accomplished within a given deadline. This model is nothing else but the definition of the original PERT problem on the structure defined on PDM. The problem can be called as Precedence PERT (P-PERT) or Stochastic PDM (S-PDM). In the following, through small sample problems it will be proved that the original PERT assumptions for defining the
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expected project duration, the assumptions to define the probabilistic distribution of the project duration cannot be used in our case. This is due to the unusual consequence of changing critical activities duration described by Weist first. At this moment it seems that only Monte Carlo simulation is able to handle the problem of calculating the expected project duration and its distribution. For this we have used an application called ProJack that can perform Monte Carlo simulation in Precedence Diagramming in case of the original PDM and in the case of extensions like activity splitting, and maximal relations as well. For the sake of simplicity lets take a network that can be seen in Figure 8.
A 100 days
SS 100 days FF 100 days
B beta distribution
SS 100 days FF 100 days
C 100 days
Figure 8. Sample Stochastic PDM project
In order to investigate the effect of the changes only on the chosen activity (Activity B), only B will have a probability distribution, while activity A, and activity C will have a deterministic duration (100 days). Precedence relations from A to B are SS100 days and FF100days, from B to C they are the same. The beta distribution of activity B can be determined by a 100 days expected duration, 50 days optimistic and 150 days pessimistic duration, with the possibility of the occurrence of the expected value, is ~1.1%. This means a practically linear activity duration distribution within the range of optimistic and pessimistic duration with the difference that the possibility of the occurrence of the optimistic (a) or the pessimistic (b) duration is zero. The result of the simulations after 3 million iterations can be seen in Figure 9. (Calculation time on an average PC was less than three minutes.)
Figure 9. Results of Monte Carlo analysis
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The figure shows the following data after 3 million iterations: 1) Upper part of the picture: a) mean project duration according to original PERT assumption for mean duration 300 days b) the PERT smallest (optimistic) project duration according to original PERT assumption, that the smallest project duration is a result of time analysis using the optimistic durations: 350 day c) the PERT longest (pessimistic) project duration according to original PERT assumption that the longest project duration is a result of time analysis using the pessimistic durations: 350 days. 2) Lower part of the picture: a) smallest project duration after 3 million iterations: 300 days b) longest project duration after 3 million iterations: 350 days c) expected project duration (half of the iteration results in a greater or smaller project durations. The distribution of the project duration follows the right side if the mass function of the activitys mass function. These strange results can be explained by the fact that activity B is a bi-critical activity that is either a decrement or increment in its duration will result in a same day increment in project duration. Figure 11 shows the result of the iterations when the duration of activity B follows a beta distribution that resembles a usual standard distribution. (Figure 10). In this case the distribution of the project duration follows the right side of the probability distribution of activity B, but PERT mean project duration will still be the smallest, and PERT optimistic and pessimistic will be the same, that is the greatest duration.
Figure 10. Mass function of activity time of act. B
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Figure 11. Results of Monte Carlo analysis
4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Precedence-PERT (or Stochastic PDM) were defined and examined in this paper. It was shown that the original PERT assumptions for calculating the mean (expected) project duration do not work in case of Precedence PERT. Also, defining the smallest achievable duration (based on the time analysis with optimistic durations), and defining the longest achievable project duration (based on the time analysis with pessimistic activity duration) can mislead the planner. In case of different precedence relationships Monte Carlo simulation seems to be the only tool that can calculate the distribution of the project duration. This paper has investigated the impact of a stochastic bi-critical activity on project duration. Further investigations are necessary in case of all types of critical activities and in cases when splitting and maximal relationships are allowed.
REFERENCES
(Battersby, 1970) Battersby, A., A Network Analysis for Planning and Scheduling 3rd, edition, Macmillan and Co. Limited, London 1970. (Malcolm, et all., 1959) Malcolm, D. G.; Roseboom, J.H.; Clarck, C.E.; Fazar, W. : Applications of a Technique for research and development Program Evaulation Operations research, Vol. 7. No.5 pp. 646669, USA (Fondahl, 1961) Fondahl, John W. (1st Ed. 1961, 2nd ed, 1962): A Non-Computer Approach to the Critica lPath Method for the Construction Industry, Department of Civil Engineering, Stanford University, USA (Hajdu, 1997) M.Hajdu: Network Scheduling Techniques for Construction Project Management, ISBN 0-79234309-3, Kluwer Academic Publisher, 1997. (IBM, 1964) Users manual for IBM 1440 Project Control System (PCS) , 1964. (Kelley and Walker, 1959) Kelley, James, E Jr; Walker, Morgan R. : Critical Path Planning and Scheduling Proceedings of the Eastern Joint Computer Conference, pp. 160173. (Kelley and Walker, 1961) Kelley, James, E Jr; Walker, Morgan R. : Critical Path Planning and Scheduling: Mathematical Basis Operations Research, vol. 9, No. 3., pp. 296320, USA (Kelley and Walker, 1989) Kelley, James, E Jr; Walker, Morgan R. : The Origins of CPM, a Personal History pmNetwork Vol. III, No 2., Feb.. PMI; USA
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary (Roy, 1959) Roy, B: Thorie des graphes: Contribution de la thorie des graphes ltude de certains problmes linaries Comptes rendus des Sances de lAcadmie des Sciences, sence du Avril 1959, s 24372449. (Roy, 1962) Roy, B. : Graphes et ordonnancements, Revue Francaise de Recherche Operationelle, s323333, 1962. (Valls and Lino, 2001) Valls, V and Lini, P: Criticality Analysis in Activity-on-Node Networks with Minimal Time Lags, Annals of Operations Research, Volume 102, Numbers 14, 2001, pp: 1737. (Weist,1981) Weist, J.D.: Precedence Diagramming Method: Some Unusual Characteristics and Their Implications for Project Management Journal of Operations Research Vol 1. No 3. Feb., 1981 pp 121136.
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ESTIMATION OF VALUE MODIFICATION FACTOR WITH HEDONIC MODELING: A CASE STUDY

Dr. Istvn Hajnal, FRICS BUTE, Budapest, Hungary, hajnal.istvan@biggeorges-nv.hu
Abstract Residential property value is influenced by numerous value modification factors including environmental contamination. Land improvements, as transmission towers, waste disposal plants and other establishments may affect value. A series of case property owners claimed for compensation of their property values. No clear methodology exists to estimate those losses. This paper examines the hedonic price model to better understand the influence of nearby land improvements to property value. In a case study the author investigated effects of a mobile transmission tower in a Hungarian village. Analyzing major factors as distance, building quality, built-in area and obsolescence, a multi-regression formula was established to estimate property value. Having the results of the case study, a function was elaborated, which make the property valuation easier. With the help of this function the value decrease can be forecasted in the investigated village. Hedonic pricing can be an useful tool in value estimation when direct comparable data are not available. This model gives support for experts in juridical cases. Keywords: Hedonic price model, land improvements, property, transmission tower, valuation.
1. INTRODUCTION
The different public and private investments, infrastructural developments do inevitably generate conflicts of interest for the owners of neighbouring real estate not only during construction works but also after completing the establishment. Certain investments cause direct environmental effects, such as noise, pollution emission; in other cases the damage occurs in an indirect way through the market mechanism. Similar case is inspected in present article, when inhabitants living in the neighbourhood of a mobile transmitter tower do believe that their properties lose their values. In case of such cause of damage, the investor is to reimburse all caused decrease of value. In the present Hungarian practice there are no accepted methods of calculation for the determination of the value decrease. Consequently, the expert witness opinions in lack of integrated method indicate an extremely wide range, while the arguing parties do not receive any support to prove their rights, moreover, infestants appear along the investments whose aim is to make their fortune and benefit
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from the confusing situation. Because of all the above, the lack of the methodology causes significant damages to the national economy. In respect of real estate properties contaminated with such environmental effects, different routines of real estate valuation of such depreciation are known in the international practice. The aim of present article is to examine through a study case, the results of the method of the so-called hedonic depreciation model for a homogeneous living environment.
2. WORDING OF PROBLEM
In a wider perspective, the balance of market is formed by the demand and supply in a village living environment. The market value of certain residential buildings might be determined by comparing with data of other transactions. The market value of the property is formed by different factors such as the location, the area measure and the technical conditions. The date of the transaction is also a natural variable, as it is indisputable that the market conditions change in the course of time. In case there is a point of contaminated establishment located in the area, it is expected that, depending on the degree of pollution, the market value falls, moreover, the effect of such pollution is reducing as getting further from the source. How big is this effect? Or does it even exist? Those who complain against the establishment of buildings behaving as pollution sources can cite numerous arguments next to their belief of value decreasement. Nevertheless, the inspection for the changes of market balance can only be explored by examinations of facts and systematic analysis of market trends. It is unquestionable that many arguments may disturb this examination. The main problems are: The market database represents only the earlier fulfilled transactions, not the complete property portfolio (meaning that the properties sold earlier might not describe the full population as a good sample); The market information carry certain uncertainty themselves (different data sources make different distortion); After identifying the pollution source, the market procedures are not known (conclusions can only be drawn from similar areas trends to sourceless conditions); It is disputable if the pollution source itself or its related effects do adjust the new market balance. The above question is focused sometimes in legal disputes on real estate value depreciation. However, in the point of view of our topic, it is insignificant as the market is determined by its participants valuation (sentiment). In our article we examine if any change can be experienced at the point of turn up of the source. We also have to assume that the valuation elements are independent from each other. At the scene of present study case this presume is correct, however, in many cases quoted in
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the technical literature, one argument depended on another one (f.e. Benson (1998) regarded the location as argument while examining the effects of view as valuation role. It is obvious that the panorama can be seen only at certain locations.)
3. REVIEW OF TECHNICAL LITERATURE

Numerous works discuss the value decreasing effects of engineering facilities and specifically mobile transmitting towers in the international literature. The study of RICS (Kinnard, 1996) states that the disturbing facilities, pollutions make stigma 1 on the neighbouring buildings that has a value decreasing effect and what makes it more difficult, the financing of the stigmatized real estate, depending on the identity of the creditor. In the same series of study, as a result of summarising works of previous researchers, the author (Kinnard, 1998) summarizes most important methodology possibilities of the valuation of polluted real estates, such as the cost-correction, the method of the matching pairs, the approach based on the decrease of income-generating ability as well as the model of the hedonic price. With todays IT support, it has become easy to apply, the method of multiple linear regression. Takcs in his lecture (Takcs, 2011) also suggests looking for possibilities of resolving the problem. The method of multiple linear regression, mentioned in the technical literature as hedonic method, was applied to the real estate market among Hungarian circumstances by Horvth (Horvth, 2007). The main point of the approach is that the value of the property is divided into different components. Each component has an assigned factor as a share price indicator that expresses the weight of each component in the final value. Horvth attempted modelling the description of the Hungarian residence market with attention to the geographical location, the quality and the size of the apartment as well as further factors. This method is used when calculating Laksrindex (residential price index) (FHB, 2011), which was developed by the workshop led by Horvth. In the international technical literature, the hedonic valuation method has been profoundly studied by Asian researchers. In his detailed study, Chan states in 2002 that, the real estate market can be described by the location, building structural and environmental attributes. The target is determined by semi-logarithmic transformation. In his study, Chan certifies the competence of the model on a homogene sample of 120 elements on a real estate market problem. In view of our topic, it is very interesting, the results of the hedonic model of Benson (1998), according to which the prices of apartments depend on the panorama (who can see and in what range); for example, a full ocean view may add 32% more to the value of the real estate, while the partial ocean view makes only 10%. Although the method, despite of its wide examination, have had partial outcome only in case of homogene samples, Asian researchers are still inspecting the hedonic rating. Chuti has
1 In valuation practice, the stigma might be any kind of burden, negative presume; narrowly the expression is used for the real estates environmental pollution or its presume.
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drawn up a multi-regression model to value increasing effect of the Bangkok metro network that supports the hypothesis (i.e. the closeness of the metro increases the value of the real estate) (Chuti, 2009).
4. STUDY CASE
For the examination of the process I applied a data list I had at disposal due to an expert witness matter. This data list is the market turnover data list of K., a small village located in the middle region of Hungary. The village has some 2000 inhabitants and approximately 500 houses. The substance of buildings are quite homogene, vide attached picture 1, showing a typical street view. The real estate turnover data list contains altogether 300 transactions back until 1997. Unfortunately, most of the records are deficient; they typically do not content the area of the buildings. The missing data are not available in the central land registry either. After cleaning the data list, 69 cases were found that was containing all necessary significant in respect of the properties. In 2004, close to the centre of the village of K., a mobile service provider settled a 50-meter tall steel transmitter tower (picture 2) that caused indignation within the community and a lawsuit had been filed. The overview map of the village indicating the location of the tower and the involved buildings is presented on picture 3.
Picture 1.: Village street impressions
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Picture 2.: Transmission tower
8 7
6 5 3
4 2 1
11 12 13 14
10
15
Picture 3.: Overview map of K. with involved premises
The real estate market data themselves are not enough to set up a model on the transmitter tower as a pollution source. To complete the existing database, I made a survey and by visiting all 69 properties, I estimated the conditions of the building and the view of the tower from the property. The conditions of the buildings were ranked on a five-degree scale, picture 4. shows the ranking of the quality scaling. A second describing variable, the visibility was added to the separate building examination. At houses where the tower was well visible, I gave 5, where it was invisible, the rate was 1, while in between the two values, I used the marks 2 to 4. It is a significant standpoint, the distance of the given building and the tower, which was measured from the main faade of each main building (vide picture 5 to illustrate distances).
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Bad (1 ) Poor (2)
Fair (3)
Good (4)
Excellent (5)
Picture 4.: Building quality scale
1 00 m 200 m 300 m 400 m
Picture 5.: Distances
Finally, the data line contains the following elements: Market data structure: Address and plot No. of the real estate (identifying location); Plot area (sqm); Size of main building (sqm); Date of data (year or real estate turnover correction factor (%). Condition of building (expressed on a 5-degree scale);
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Value decrease data structure: Distance from tower (measured from main faade, metres); Visual disturbance, visibility (expressed on a 5-degree scale). In an urban environment where there are more types of houses are, or in an articulated village there are more market factors for testing. In case the distance and the visibility are not enough to describe the interaction between the real estate and the pollution source, more suitable factors are to introduce into the given data base. My initial presumption in the study case was that with the available data and by applying the multiple regression, it would create a sum function of the value factors of the real estate and within this, it is traceable, the value modification effect of the distance and/or visual disturbance of the mobile transmitting tower. I inspected the prepared data base with the ROPStat2 programme in different classifications and assumptions. In harmony with the quoted technical literature (Horvth, 2007 and Chan, 2002), I tested the correlation also in a semi-logarithmic form. The examinations regarding the total sample show that among all factors, the time of transaction, the area of the building and the quality of the building are significant. It is interesting that the area of the plot is less significant as a value factor. The reason can be that the homogene structure of the village and the almost similar plot sizes as well as the utilization, the attribution of the plot is negligible in value factors. According to the meaning, the effect of the tower does not appear on the total sample. As table 1., I attach the results table of a typical program output (with the market value correction in semi-logarithmic form).
DEPENDENT VARIABLE: ln korri Number of listwise complete cases: 69 Notation: +: p < 0.10 *: p < 0.05 **: p < 0.01 ***: p < 0.001 Residual sum of squares = 9.000 Total sum of squares = 22.562 Standard error of the regression estimation = 0.378 Multiple correlation: R = 0.775 R square = 0.601 Regression coefficients and their tests of significance Independent Unstand. variable B coeff. St.error Constant 13.745 0.332 Buildin ar 0.0155 0.002 Plot ar 0.00025 0.000 Quality 0.1369 0.042 Distance -0.00014 0.000 Visibility -0.0510 0.054
Standard Beta . 0.670 0.151 0.278 -0.043 -0.093
t-value 41.35 7.622 1.779 3.257 -0.429 -0.941
Signif. (p-value) 0.0000*** 0.0000*** 0.0801+ 0.0018** 0.6696 0.3503
Table 1: Typical output (full sample)
ROPStat Programme Package, developed by Dr. Andrs Vargha, version June 2011.
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After all these, I separated the sample into two states of before tower built and after tower built. 37 cases were listed into the first, while 32 cases were listed into the second database. The latter are the properties, of which the transactions happened after the building of the tower in 2004. Essentially, the before tower built database indicated high similarity with the total sample, the factors are the areas of buildings, their quality and the time of transactions. Surprisingly, the second, after tower built half database, unlike the estimates, brought an interesting result: along with the already mentioned value factors, not the distance, but the visibility of tower was enlisted. This result tints the common assumption according to which, such contamination sources are more value modifiers than the more they are close. Against that, especially in present study case, we have to state that the value decreasing effect of the tower on a real estate depends on the visibility. To illustrate the calculations, on Table No. 2, I introduce the stepwise linear regression test result table.
DEPENDENT VARIABLE: ln korri Type of regression: stepwise linear Number of listwise complete cases: 32 Notation: +: p < 0.10 *: p < 0.05 **: p < 0.01 ***: p < 0.001 Variance of the dependent variable: 0.2059 Main results of stepwise selection for each step Adjust. Step Variable In/Out R R square R square 1 Buildin a Enter 0.831 0.691 0.681 2 Visibility Enter 0.873 0.761 0.745
Error variance 0.0657 0.0525
Stand. error 0.256 0.229
Partial correl. 0.831 -0.477
F_In/Out 67.119*** 8.830**
Partial correlations between dependent variable and not entered independent variables after each selection (at each step the linear effect of all previosly selected variables are removed) Name of variable entered/removed Variable Step = 0 Building a Visibility Building a 0.831** . . Plot a -0.162 0.350+ 0.356+ Quality 0.464** 0.300 0.307+ Distance -0.172 0.046 -0.192 Visibility -0.106 -0.477** . Regression coefficients and their tests of significance Independent Unstand. Standard variable B coeff. St.error Beta t-value Constant 14.736 0.149 . 98.83 Building a 0.0139 0.001 0.881 9.547 Visibility -0.1245 0.043 -0.270 -2.922
Signif. (p-value) 0.0000*** 0.0000*** 0.0067**
Table 2: Typical output (after tower built sample)
3. CONCLUSIONS
The examinations conducted in a relatively homogene environment gave results with which the market value of properties of the village can be estimated, moreover, they are suitable to quantificate the effect and the rate of the visual pollution with a multi-regressive approaching function. Apparently, the quantified regression coefficient values cannot be generalized and it is also certain that further special cases are to analyze to prove the utilization of the method. Nevertheless, important result of the survey is that calculations
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highlighted that in such special pollution case, not the distance of the source, but the visibility of the source is to be considered among the value-modification factors.
REFERENCES
Benson, E. D., & Hansen, J. L., Schwartz, A. L. & Smersh, G. T; 1998; Pricing residential amenities: The value of a view; Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 5573. Chalmers, James A. & Voorvaart, Frank A.; 2009; High-Voltage Transmission Lines: Proximity, Visibility and Encumbrance Effect; The Appraisal Journal, Summer 2009; pp227245 Chan, K. W & Chin, T. L; 2002; A Critical Review of Literature on the Hedonic Price Model and Its Application to the Housing Market in Penang; The seventh Asian Real Estate Society Conference, pp12, Seul Chan, N.; 2000; How Australian Valuers Value Contaminated Land?, PREES Conference, 2000; Sidney Chuti Thamrongsrisook; 2011; The Influence of Rapid Transit Systems on Condominium Prices in Bangkok; Master Thesis, KTH University, Stockholm, 2011 Dorin, Allen G & Simth, Joseph W; 1999; The Impact of Communication Towers on Residential Property Values; Right of Way, March/April 1999, pp 1117 Horvth, ron & Szkely, Gborn, 2007; Application of Hedonic Methods in used-flat pricing trends (Hedonikus mdszerek alkalmazsa a hasznlt laksok ralakulsnak megfigyelsben); Statisztikai Szemle, 87. vol., no 6.; pp 595607 IAOO Standard on the Valuation of Properties Affected by Enviromental Contamination; 2001; IAAO, Chichago, 2001 Kinnard, William N Jr, 1998; The Cutting Edge (The valuation of contaminated properties and associated stigma: a comparative review of practice and tought in The United States of America, the United Kingdom and New Zeland); RICS Research, 1998 McDonough, Carol C.; 2003; The Impact of Wireles Towers on Residential Property Values, Assesment Journal, Summer 2003, pp 2530 Mundy, B., Throupe, R., Kilpatrick, J. A. & Spiess, W.; 2007;: Valuation of Impaired Property; ELR News &Analysis, 7-2007, Washington RICS Red Book; 2010; RICS, London, 6. edition RICS Guidance Note 2. in the RICS Valuation and Appraisal Manual, RICS London, 1995 Syms, P. M. & Weber, B. R., 2003; International approaches to the valuation of land and property affected by contamination; RICS Foundation Publications, London, 2003 Takcs Nndor: Base stations-Mobile Towers (Bzisllomsok Mobiltornyok); 2011; MAISZ EUFIM conference; May 6., 2011. The Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice; 2010; Appraisal Standards Board, The Appraisal Foundation, USA, Washington Townsend, David A.; 2004; Report on the National Antenna Tower Policy Review; Industry Canada, 2004. December 6.; pp132139.
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CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULING: CPM FOR PLANNING AND CPS FOR CONTROL

Tarek Hegazy University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada,tarek@uwaterloo.ca Wail Menesi University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada,wmenesi@uwaterloo.ca
Abstract The prevailing Critical Path Method (CPM) proved its usefulness for scheduling projects at the planning stage, yet after many years of practice, has not gained the trust of the industry as a project control tool. Although CPM schedules allow simple updating of activities progress status, they are not as beneficial in supporting corrective action decisions. In addition, CPM schedules can produce calculation errors and do not record enough as-built details, thus making schedule forensics a difficult task. To improve project control, this paper introduces a Critical Path Segments (CPS) scheduling technique that represents activities durations as a chain of daily time segments, rather than continuous activity bars. To circumvent CPM drawbacks, CPS incorporates three aspects related to project control: (1) Recording of activity as-built events, including acceleration, rework, and weather problems, on daily time segments; (2) Simplified conversion of complex project relationships into finish-to-start without lag times; and (3) Modified critical path computation that avoids errors in float calculations. Using several cases of schedule analysis, the CPS ability to overcome the common pitfalls of CPM for project control is discussed. In essence, the CPS uses the schedule as an integrated tool for as-built visualization and accurate analysis of progress and related decisions. In this sense, CPS revolutionizes the manner by which project tracking and control are supported during construction. Keywords: Construction Scheduling, Critical Path Method, Project Control, As-Built schedule, Critical Path Segments.
1. INTRODUCTION
Several surveys have demonstrated that, over the years, CPM use has been growing in construction (Kelleher, 2004; Liberatore, Pollack-Johnson, & Smith, 2001) and that professionals continue to be very interested in improving the tools available for project planning and control. Despite of its growing use, a key criticism of CPM that is reported in these surveys is being not responsive to the needs of field personnel. Another survey by Galloway (2006) also revealed that CPM has not gained the trust of the industry as a project
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control tool. Although contractors can report that they used CPM for project control (as indicated in the survey of Kelleher 2004), they may find the CPM useful in updating activities data and analyzing progress status, but not as beneficial in supporting other important decisions such as corrective actions to recover execution problems. Once the construction stage has begun, the schedule becomes essential to the successful coordination of day-to-day activities and acts as a baseline for measuring progress (Gould, 2005). Existing CPM-based tools record activity progress on the schedule mainly in the form of a cumulative percentage complete, without much detail on how the work evolved to reach this value. As an example, an activity may have cumulative percentage complete values of 20%, 25%, and 40% after 2, 7 and 14 days of starting the activity, respectively. This cumulative progress, as such, does not explain the sequence of events (and the related responsible party) that caused the activity to have slow progress between days 2 and 7. This simple example illustrates two serious drawbacks of CPM-based tools with respect to project control: (1) the inability to record the evolution of progress events of all parties and to show these events legibly on the schedule; and (2) the inability of the CPM-based scheduling engine to handle various events and their specific timing (other than the percentage complete value), including rework, work stop by the owner, acceleration, weather delay, etc. Due to the above drawbacks, CPM-based commercial scheduling engines do not intuitively allow the project manager to experiment with various corrective actions to recover delays and overruns. Project managers currently must employ manual iterative cycles of changes in order to alter the schedule from different angles, which is a slow trial-and-error process that does not guarantee good solutions. In addition to status reporting and corrective action planning, forensic analysis of as-built schedules, which requires details about all progress events, is important to determine the responsibility of each party for any project delay (Ostrowski, 2006). However, CPM schedules are often difficult to analyze due to many well-documented factors, including: the complex relationships among activities, the use of lead and lag times (Herold, 2004), and the inadequate recording of site events in scheduling software (Hegazy & Menesi, 2010). This paper improves on the Critical Path Segments (CPS) scheduling technique of Hegazy and Menesi (2010) with focus on project control, specifically forensic analysis and corrective action planning. The Paper first discusses the needed level of as-built details that facilitate accurate project control decisions. The paper then explains how the CPS and its scheduling engine are designed to accommodate the needed details. A simple case study is then analyzed to demonstrate the project control features of CPS and its advantages over CPM-based tools, followed by a discussion of future extensions and improvements to the CPS mechanism.
2. THE NEED FOR AS-BUILT DETAILS

Indeed, the project managers ability to decide on appropriate corrective actions or to do forensic schedule analysis requires enough details on how progress events of all parties have evolved, including work stops, acceleration, rework, etc. In order to introduce realistic and
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practical support for project control, it is important to examine the level of as-built detail at which project control decisions can be efficiently done. Basically, an additional level of detail will only be necessary if such detail will directly impact project control decisions. Examining different level of project as-built details can be demonstrated by the example in Figure 1. The figure shows the as-planned schedule for a simple 4-activity case, against four cases of as-built details. In this example, activities B and C both follow activity A and are then followed by activity D. The as-planned duration is seven days (the top path has two days of total float), while the as-built duration is nine days (the top path became critical), with project delay being two days. Brief explanation of the four cases and the analysis of their as-built schedules are as follows: 1 A B C D 2 3 4 5 6 7
As-planned Schedule
As-Built schedules with different level of progress details

Case1: Low progress details (Activities start & finish, & % complete). Analysis: 2-day contractor delay due to lack of information Case 2: Additional progress details: Rough timing of work interruptions by parties. Analysis: 1-day Contractor & Owner + 1-day Contractor Case 3: Additional progress details: Accurate timing of work interruptions by parties. Analysis: 2-day contractor Case 4: Additional progress details: daily progress amount, rework, slow, acceleration, etc. Analysis: 1-day Contractor & Owner + 1-day Contractor
1 A B C D 1 A B C D 1 A B C D 1 A B C D
OOC O
OOC O
O O 80% C 5% 10% 5% O
Figure 1: Different levels of as-built details produce different schedule analysis results
Case 1: shows a typical representation of progress as provided by existing commercial software. This as-built schedule can be determined using least amount of information which is the actual start and actual finish times of each activity (percentage complete is 100%). Such
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level of information, however, is not sufficient to justify whether the contractor is entitled to two days of extension or if weather condition or other reasons are behind the project delay. Accordingly, due to the lack of details, the responsibility for the two project delay days is allocated as sole contractor responsibility. Case 2: shows an extra level of detail on the as-built where some owner and contractor interruptions are assumed to be indicated roughly on the schedule (an O indicates owner; and C indicates contractor). In this situation, the two O interruptions on activity B will consume the two float days. Accordingly, two critical paths exist as per the events until the end of day 3. Afterwards, these two critical paths are concurrently delayed one day based on the events of day 6 because of the owners interruption to activity C and the contractors inability to finish activity B. Afterwards, the contractor delays the project one more day. Accordingly, the responsibility for the project delays is (1 day C + O and 1 day C). Case 3: shows the same level of detail of case 2 but with the event timings slightly changed to be more accurate. As such, case 3 examines the value of being accurate in recording progress events. In this case also, two critical paths exist as per the events until the end of day 3. Afterwards, the C interruption in day 5 causes one project delay, thus creating a one day float at the bottom path, which is consumed by the O interruption of day 6. Afterwards, the contractor delays the project one more day. Accordingly, the responsibility for the project delays is (2 day C), which is different from case 2, thus showing that the accurate timing of events makes a difference in the analysis and consequent decisions. Case 4: indicates the highest level of as-built details being recorded in terms of not only accurate timing of events, but also accurate progress amounts (e.g., acceleration to activity B on day 4 and slow progress on days 6 to 8). In this case also, two critical paths exist as per the events until the end of day 3. Afterwards, the 80% progress, which represents accelerated performance, created a one-day float on the top path as activity B is expected to finish earlier. This float, however, is consumed by the contractors interruption in day 5, thus having two critical paths again. Afterwards, the analysis proceeds from day 6 as done in case 2, resulting in the responsibility for the project delays being (1 day C + O and 1 day C). It is noted that the extra information in cases 2, 3 and 4 may be available in various manual forms or documents, without being shown on the schedule. The schedule in this case is just one of many scattered project documents that are difficult to combine. This presents typical challenges in documenting the as-built evolution and in making corrective action decisions. It is noted also that the above schedule analysis of the cases in Figure 1 uses the daily windows analysis of Hegazy and Menesi (2008). Based on the results, the critical path(s) of the project fluctuate differently in each case. Accordingly, the results (responsibility for the two days of project delay) are sensitive to the level of detail of each case, which clearly indicates that using a lower level of detail will result in wrong forensic analysis and consequently wrong corrective actions. This makes a case for the papers proposed Critical Path Segments (CPS) technique which adds the needed details along with the necessary underlying computations.
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3. CRITICAL PATH SEGMENTS (CPS) FOR PROJECT CONTROL

To circumvent the CPM drawbacks as a project control tool, this paper presents modifications to the critical path segments (CPS) scheduling technique of Hegazy and Menesi (2010) to incorporate three complementary aspects related to project control: (1) Representation of activity as-built details, including rework, as a chain of events recorded on daily time segments; (2) Simplified representation of project relationships; and (3) Modified critical path scheduling computation. These are discussed in the following subsections.
3.1. Detailed Activity As-built Representation In CPS, progress is clearly represented so that schedule analysis can be carried out accurately with less disagreement among parties. In CPS, as-built data is shown as a chain of time segments (default is one-day each). An activity segment can be of different types to accommodate various as-built events such as those involving the owner, the contractor, and neither (e.g., weather), as shown in Figure 2. Such a generic representation of the activities clearly shows the evolution of all as-built events and their timing. Computationally, this segment-based rather than activity-based representation is suitable for evaluating all critical path fluctuations so that schedule analysis becomes accurate and repeatable. CPM
Activity representation
4 days
25% 25%
CPS
25% 25%
Continuous bar
Chain of separate time segments with progress indicated as a percentage
Complex relationships (SS, FF, SF, lag times)
4 days
25%
25%
25%
25%
SS (2)
FS
3 days All converted to FS with zero lag
33% 33% 34%
SS relationship with 2-day lag time Activity interruption: By owner O By Contractor C By Neither N
25%
25%
25%
25%
Traditional representation does not show the evolution of events
Interruption segment recorded with its timing, reason, & responsibility

25% 10%
55%
10%
Acceleration, Slow progress
Slow
Acceleration Weather delay

25%
25%
-10%
30%
30%
Rework
Figure 2: Differences between CPM and CPS
Rework of 10%
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In the CPS representation of Figure 2, not only the daily progress can be recorded, but also the party responsible for any daily event such as work stops and their reasons / documents, etc. As shown in Figure 2, if an activity is interrupted for owner-related reasons (e.g., late approval of drawings), an O is shown on that day. In the same manner, if the delay is contractor-related (e.g., using slow resources), a C is shown. In the case of events that are not attributable to neither the owner nor the contractor (e.g., weather), an N is shown. If an event occurs due to concurrent actions of several parties, then a combination of these three letters is shown (e.g., O+N or O+C), with the reasons recorded as comments in the related time segments. Other events such as rework can also be represented on a time segment and the rework amount is considered as a negative percentage complete (Similar to Hegazy, Said, & Kassab, 2011) for the activity. With this generic representation, CPS becomes suitable for accurate calculation of the floats, the remaining durations, corrective actions, baselines, and schedule analysis.
3.2. Simplified Network Relationships Often, CPM networks involve situations that mandate the use of non-traditional relationships among the activities such as start-to-start (SS) and finish-to-finish with lag times. As explained in the literature, however, such relationships complicate the CPM network, and more importantly, can lead to situations in which the start dates of some critical activities might be critical while their finish dates are not (Lowsley & Linnett, 2006; Moder, Phillips, & Davis, 1983). The CPM algorithm and existing software systems are generally unable to portray these activities as partly critical, mainly because of the assumption that each activity is a single undivided bar with a given duration (Hegazy and Menesi, 2010).
3.3. Improved Critical Path Scheduling Engine The improvements that CPS provides over CPM are due not only to the reduced complexity of the network but also to more accurate calculations. It should be noted that CPS uses physically separated activity segments not just as a matter of representation. As such, the modified critical path computations of the CPS are carried out not at the whole activity level but at the individual segment level. As such, CPS can identify any partly critical activities to produce a more accurate critical path and also facilitates the tracking of resources on a daily basis. With the CPS representation of all relationships as FS relationships without lags, the calculations in Figure 4 at the segment level show that it actually defines the critical parts of the activities, which current software tools are not able to do. The CPS scheduling engine has been designed to consider the variety of mid-activity as-built events (Figure 2) that the CPS permits. Midway through construction, the scheduling engine first uses the existing as-built details on the various time segments to do calculations at the activity level. For example, for an activity that experienced a rework event, it is possible to calculate a modified activity percentage complete (MPC%), as follows:
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MPC % = Actual Progress to Date (%) Rework Amount (%) Accordingly, Modified activity duration can be calculated as follows: Modified Activity Duration = Actual Duration to Date + Remaining Duration Where, Remaining Duration = Planned Duration * (1 MPC%)
(1)
(2) (3)
Similarly, all other events have been incorporated into the CPS scheduling formation. Also, to allow corrective actions, the scheduling engine incorporates additional variables such as delay segments to avoid resource over allocation, and also alternative construction method variable (either different resource or different overtime strategy) to speed some activities and recover project delays. Detailed mathematical formulation of the CPS can be found in Menesi (2010).
4. CASE STUDY
To illustrate the advantages of CPS over CPM for project control, a case study (Figure 3) is used. The figure shows a comparison between the as-planned (in the traditional CPM representation) versus the CPS as-built representation. In the first 8 days, several progress events are shown, including work interruptions by the owner and the contractor. On day 9, a rework was identified and documented as shown in Figure 3b. In this case, where the rework affects multiple activities, a (C-25%) is recorded for activity E, indicating that E is the driving activity, which then triggered rework in activity B (33% rework). Once rework is specified, the remaining schedule is then calculated using equations 1 to 3. It is noted that due to the rework, activity B needs to be extended two days since planned progress is 25% daily, while the rework amount is 33%. A basic assumption in the calculation of remaining duration is that the remaining work follows the planned progress percentage in each day. The analysis of the current schedule starts from day 4 since the first three days did not deviate from the plan, as shown in the top part of Figure 4. The contractors work stop (C) on activity B on day 4 did not cause project delay (only affected a non-critical path). Following this process, the events of each day are analyzed and the responsibility is accumulated, as shown in Figure 4 (some days are skipped because they exhibit no change). In each analysis day, actual progress is entered on the left side and the remaining schedule is calculated on the right side. Any consequent project delay is thus attributed to the party that caused the delay on current date. Following this process, the analysis of day 6 (middle part of Figure 4) shows a project duration of 11 days. The owners work stop (O) on activity D in day 6 caused an extension to the activity duration, thus, a project delay of one day is anticipated. As such, according to the events of day 6, the project will be delayed one day due to the owner. The contractors work stop (C) on activity B on day 4 did not cause project delay (only affected a non-critical path). Following this process, the events of each day are analyzed and the responsibility is accumulated, as shown in Figure 4 (some days are skipped because they exhibit no change). In each analysis day, actual progress is entered on the left side and the remaining schedule is calculated on the right
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side. Any consequent project delay is thus attributed to the party that caused the delay on current date. Following this process, the analysis of day 6 (middle part of Figure 4) shows a project duration of 11 days. The owners work stop (O) on activity D in day 6 extended the activity duration, thus, a project delay of one day is anticipated. As such, according to the events of day 6, the project will be delayed one day due to the owner.
Figure 3: Simple case study with delays due to rework and work stops
Continuing this daily process to days 7 and 8, the project duration is still 11, without further delays attributable to any party. Proceeding to day 9 (bottom part of Figure 4), the rework on the activities B and E was entered, to produce a project duration of 13 days (2 days delay from the previous duration). Since the events of day 9, including the rework, are all attributable to the contractor, the analysis of day 9 then assigns a 2 day delay responsibility to the contractor. Accordingly, the conclusion of the schedule analysis until day 9 is an expected project delay of 3 days (from the 10-day deadline), apportioned as one delay due to Owners events, and two days due to Contractors events. This small example, as such, demonstrates the benefits of CPS representation for accurately recording and analyzing all progress events to provide information to facilitate corrective actions during construction.
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Figure 4: Schedule Analysis days 1 to 9
5. PROJECT CONTROL PROCEDURE

Applying the CPS for project control during construction requires four sequential steps: (1) retrieving the project CPM network to read the activities and relationships, in additional to any additional details about activities costs, resources, and optional construction methods; (2) converting the activities durations into time segments and thus converting any complex network relationship into the CPS format (FS with no lag); (3) recording activities as-built events either on a daily basis or according to any reporting frequency, and then associating
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the recorded events with their appropriate time segments; (4) using the CPS scheduling engine to calculate the remaining schedule, analyze the responsibilities for progress events, and investigate the impact of various corrective actions (e.g., choosing different construction method in some activities); and (5) communicating the schedule analysis results and any proposed schedule modifications to all stakeholders. It should be noted that even though the time segments are daily, progress recording does not mandate extra effort to measure progress and input the data on a daily basis. Rather, a weekly or less frequent reporting can be averaged over the number of days (i.e., a 50% of an activity done in a week means on average of 10% per day), with any specific events such as acceleration, rework, or interruptions by the Owner O, the Contractor C, and/or Neither N being marked on their appropriate time segments. .
6. CONCLUSIONS
Traditional CPM representation lacks the ability to record enough as-built details during construction, thus hinders its ability to support decisions related to corrective actions and schedule forensics. This paper presented a Critical Path Segments (CPS) approach for microlevel critical path analysis. In CPS, all as-built progress data are represented as a chain of consecutive time segments, including all events caused by various parties. Schedule analysis can therefore be carried out accurately using the modified scheduling engine of the CPS, with less disagreement among the parties. Using several case situations, CPS proved its ability to simplify network relations, provide accurate float calculations, support forensic analysis of delays and rework. As compared to the CPM where the schedule is just a passive report (often used for presentation purposes) among many scattered documents, the schedule in the CPS becomes a rich visualization medium to integrate all as-built related documentation, as well as a communication and analysis tool to facilitate corrective actions. Further research by the authors is still on-going to extend the CPS to linear and repetitive projects, and to incorporate an optimization tool to optimize corrective actions on projects, considering time, cost, and resource constraints.
REFERENCES
Galloway, P. D. 2006. Survey of the construction industry relative to the use of CPM scheduling for construction projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Vol. 132, No. 7, pp. 697711. Gould, F. E. 2005. Managing the construction process: estimating, scheduling and project control. Pearson Education, Inc,.Upper Saddle River, NJ, USA. Hegazy, T., & Menesi, W. 2010. Critical path segments scheduling technique. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Vol. 136, No. 10, pp. 10781085. Hegazy, T., & Menesi, W. 2008. Delay analysis under multiple baseline updates. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Vol. 134, No. 8, pp. 575582.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Hegazy, T., Said, M., & Kassab, M. 2011. Incorporating rework into construction schedule analysis. Automation in Construction, doi:10.1016. Herold, S. C. 2004. Enhanced PDM Concepts and benefits. AACE International Transactions, pp. PS.09.1PS.09.8. Kelleher, A. 2004. An investigation of the expanding role of the critical path method by ENRs top 400 contractors. Masters thesis, Faculty of Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA. Liberatore, M. J., Pollack-Johnson, B., & Smith, C. A. 2001. Project management in construction: Software use and research directions. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Vol. 127, No. 2, pp. 101107. Lowsley, S., & Linnett, C. 2006. About time: Delay analysis in construction. RICS Business Services Limited, UK. Menesi, W. 2010. Construction scheduling using critical path analysis with separate time segments. Ph.D. Thesis, Civil and Environmental Eng. Dept., University of Waterloo, Canada. Moder, J. J., Phillips, C. R., & Davis, E. W. 1983. Project management with CPM, PERT, and precedence diagramming. Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, NY, USA. Ostrowski, V. M. 2006. Construction CPM scheduling-precision without accuracy. AACE International Transactions, pp. CDR.S03.1 CDR.S03.4.
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CONTRIBUTION TO SUSTAINABILITY IN CONSTRUCTION: RECYCLING AND REUTILIZATION OF MATERIALS

P. M. Gameiro Henriques Professor Auxiliar, Technical university of Lisbon, Department of Civil Engineering and, Architecture, pgameiro@civil.ist.utl.pt N. F. Godinho Teodoro Master de Engenharia Civil, Instituto Superior Tcnico, Lisboa, Portugal, nunofteodoro@hotmail.com
Abstract In recent years there is a risk of depletion of natural resources and the need to find new materials and construction techniques. Thus, we seek to build with more responsibility, thinking in the future, or in other words looking for sustainable construction. Within the theme of sustainability are important concepts such as recycling which is the reuse of materials by using them as raw material for a new product, reutilization, which is the reuse of materials, such as recycling, but without going through industrial processes and is therefore a more advantageous solution and deconstruction, or selective demolition to facilitate the processes of recycling and reutilization, with economic and environmental benefits. Sustainable materials must have all the benefits of a conventional product and still have a sustainable performance. So, there are starting to appear on the market several new examples of sustainable constructive solutions, which is a fast-growing market. Keywords: Sustainability, Deconstruction, Recycling, Reutilization.
1. INTRODUCTION
The theme of this article focuses on sustainability, specifically in the recycling and reutilization, issues in vogue around the world. Given that the construction sector is one that consumes more natural resources and is also a major generator of solid waste, the deepening of this issue becomes crucial for the future of mankind. As mentioned in the abstract, in recent years there is a risk of depletion of natural resources and the need to find new materials and construction techniques. This industry, despite its contribution to improve the quality of life, has a great share of responsibility for polluting the planet. Thus, we seek to build with more responsibility, thinking ahead and not just in the present, or in other words seeking for sustainable construction.
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Within the theme of sustainability is recycling, that is the reuse of materials by using them as raw material for a new product. Thus, in the area of construction and taking into account the huge amount of waste, this should be the solution for the production of new materials, saving the planet's natural resources. Another way to save these resources is through reutilization, which is the reuse of materials, such as recycling, but without having to go through industrial processes. Finally, another notion in this article to retain is the notion of deconstruction, or selective demolition to facilitate the processes of recycling and reutilization, with economic and environmental benefits. This is then the future of construction around the world and the notions of recycling, reutilization and deconstruction are still not accepted in the field, but will surely have a very significant progress in the coming years.
2. SUSTAINABILITY
2. 1. Sustainable Construction The construction industry is one of the largest and most active sectors throughout Europe representing 28.1% and 7.5% of employment in industry and in the entire European economy, respectively. (Pacheco, 2010) This sector has an annual billing of 750 million Euros, representing 25% of all European industrial production, being the largest exporter with 52% market share. (Pacheco, 2010) Moreover, the industry consumes about 3000 Mt/year of raw materials, which represents almost 50% in mass and is responsible for 30% of carbon emissions. Finally, the housing stock consumes 42% of the energy produced. (Pacheco, 2010) For all this, the sector is clearly unsustainable. Thus, sustainable construction is the response of the construction industry to the need for sustainability on the planet. In 1994, the International Council of Building (ICB) has defined sustainable construction as "responsible for creating and maintaining an healthy built environment based on the efficient use of resources and the project based on ecological principles." (Kibert, 2005) According to the CIB, there are seven key principles for sustainable construction. They are: Reduced consumption of resources; Reuse of resources; Use of recyclable resources; Protection of nature; Elimination of toxic substances; Application of life cycle analysis in economic terms; Emphasis on quality.
The Sustainable Construction seeks to follow the premises of sustainable development to not deplete the planet's resources and develop environmentally correct methods of production
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and consumption, to ensure the survival of ecosystems without sacrificing the evolution of technology and by addition increased pollution.
2.2. Sustainable Materials For a material to be considered sustainable, it must have all the benefits of a conventional product and still have a sustainable performance. In this context of sustainable materials, the choice must be based on materials: (Pacheco, 2010) Not toxic; With low embodied energy; Recyclable; That would allow the reuse of waste from other industries; That comes from renewable sources; Durable; Whose choice is carried out according to a life cycle analysis.
2.3. Life Cycle Analysis of Materials It is not possible to know from various materials which are the most environmentally correct. It goes through several phases in which they differ widely, with positive and negative aspects to withdraw. Therefore it is necessary to make an accounting of all environmental impacts caused by a given material, since the beginning of the extraction of raw materials (cradle) to the deposition stage (grave). So, emerged in 1990 in the United States of America, a methodology known as life cycle analysis (LCA). One of the first precursor studies of this "quantified the resource requirements, emissions and waste generated by various beverage packaging" (Pacheco, 2010) being conducted by Midwest Research Institute for the Coca-Cola in 1969. The life cycle analysis of a material "includes the complete life cycle of the product, process or activity, i.e., the extraction and processing of raw materials, manufacturing, transport and distribution, use, maintenance, recycling, reutilization and final disposal". (SETAC, 1993)
2.4. Life Cycle of Buildings The life cycle is a term used to refer to all stages and processes of a system to generate products or services. Specifically in the case of a building, the phases are design,
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construction, lifespan and demolition. By increasing the lifespan, it ensures the reduction of material consumption and the reduction of environmental impacts. Then, it should be taken several measures in all stages of the cycle, to ensure this increase. So, designers must implement a durability project and prescribe the maximum number of sustainable materials. They must also ensure savings and reuse of water by, for example, the reuse of rainwater and also ensure that the construction is efficient and energy renewable. To prolong the lifespan of the construction it is essential to be created a Maintenance Management System to prevent material degradation and get rehabilitation when necessary. At lifespan and demolition, there will be wastes that should be minimized, recycled and reutilized if possible, to avoid looking for new materials and benefiting the environment.
3. RECYCLING
3.1. Importance of Recycling The word recycling began to be widespread in the media since the 80s in order to alert people to the need to recycle, when it was found that the sources of oil and other raw materials were being rapidly depleted and that there was lack of space for disposal waste and other droppings of nature. Recycling is known as the reuse of materials as raw material for a new product. Recycling has numerous environmental, economic and social benefits. In the environment, recycling reduces the progressive accumulation of garbage and the production of new materials. On the economic side, it contributes to more rational use of natural resources and the replacement of those assets that are likely to be reused. In the social sphere, recycling not only provides better quality of life for people by improving the environment, but also has generated jobs in the area.
3.2. Strategies for Recycling Materials To ensure an efficient recycling, there are certain strategies that should be followed and that are being studied at this time, to maximize the recycling process, i.e., to ensure less waste and more recycling of materials. The strategies for the recycling of materials are: (Couto, 2006) Use recycled materials the use of recycled materials will encourage governments and industry to investigate new technologies to recycle and to create a wider support network for further recycling and reuse; Minimize the number of different types of materials simplifies the process of organizing materials and reduce transportation;
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Avoid toxic and harmful materials reduces the potential for contamination of materials that are segregated for recycling and also reduces the potential risk to human health during disassembly; Develop a separate installation of materials with different potential for use prevents large amounts of material to be contaminated with small amounts of a material that cannot be separated; Avoid coatings when possible such coatings may contaminate the source material and make recycling less convenient; Provide permanent identification of the types of material many materials such as plastics, are not easily identified and should have some identification mark "not removable" and "non-polluting" to facilitate their future organization; Minimize the number of different types of components simplifies the process; Use mechanical connections rather than chemical allows easy separation of components and materials and reduces contamination of materials and component damage; Implement chemical connections weaker than the parts to be connected when chemical connections are used, they should be weaker than the components. For example, the mortar should be much weaker than the bricks.
4. REUTILIZATION 4.1. Importance of Reutilization Reutilization is the act of using again a given material. Therefore, it is an important tool in the field of sustainable construction, since "reduces the need for exploration of new resources that would be needed for the production of new products." (Wikipedia, 2011) The big difference to the recycling is that to recycle a product, it has to be re-introduced into the productive system, giving rise to a different product from the start, or in other words it has to go through an industrial process. At reutilization the material will be used at least a second time, regardless of whether or not the same function. In conclusion, the reutilization process is environmentally better than recycling because it requires no industrial processes and it is the future (or should be) of construction, if we create the conditions for such.
4.2. Strategies for Reutilization Materials So now, we seek conditions for making reutilization an attractive process for key stakeholders. This requires strategies to make this possible, such as: (Couto, 2006) Choosing to use an open space building this will allow changes in the partitioning of the building through the replacement of components without significant construction work;
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Use assembly technologies that are compatible with standard building practices the use of specific technologies will make disassembly difficult to perform and may require hand labor and special equipment which makes it less attractive; Separate the inner walls of the structure of coatings to allow the parallel dismantling of the building where some parts can be removed without affecting other parts; Provide access to all parts and all components of the building ease of access will facilitate disassembly. If possible it allows the recovery of components within the building, done without the use of specialized equipment; Use components that allow easy handling operations allowing the handling at all stages: disassembly, transportation, processing and reassembly; Use the means necessary to deal with the various components during disassembly the handling may require connection points for lifting equipment or devices for temporary support; Provide realistic tolerances to allow the necessary movements during disassembly; Use the minimum number of different types of connectors the connector will facilitate standardizing disassembly, making it faster and requires fewer types of tools and equipment. Even if it results in over sizing of some connections, it will surely be compensated by the time of assembly and disassembly; Use a hierarchy of disassembly related to the life expectancy of the components use components with lower life expectancy in areas with easier access; Provide a permanent identification of the type of components the identification of materials with bar codes with international standards may facilitate the spread of deposit banks and marketing of materials and components existing in various locations.
5. DECONSTRUCTION
5.1. Definition Historically, the process of demolition was associated with only one principle, which was to minimize the time spent on this operation because it would also minimize the costs, but which had the consequence of the construction and demolition residues (CDR) getting mixed in a landfill. However, in recent years, with the need to maximize recycling and reutilization of CDR, was born a new technique for demolition, called selective demolition or deconstruction. Deconstruction is then a new technique used in the demolition of buildings. It consists in a careful dismantling, enabling the recovery of materials, promoting reutilization and recycling.
5.2. Principals of Deconstruction To fully utilize the potential of deconstruction, it must be respected the following principles: (Kibert, 2005) Minimize the number of types of materials; Avoid composite materials and products that cannot be separated;
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Provide a permanent identification of various materials; Minimize the number of different components; Emphasis on mechanical over chemical connections; Use buildings open systems with parts that can change function; Using modular construction; Use of deconstruction technologies compatible with the construction practices; Separate structure of the coatings; Allow access to all components of the building; Project components to be used manually; Provide tolerances that allow the deconstruction; Minimize the number of rivets or other connectors; Minimize the types of connectors; Design connectors and repeated operations to support the construction and deconstruction; Allow parallel deconstruction; Provide permanent identification of each component; Use standard structural solutions; Use lightweight materials; Identify the area of permanent deconstruction; Provide replacement parts and place for storage; Save the information building and construction process.
6. EXAMPLES OF NEW CONSTRUCTIVE SOLUTIONS

6.1. Thermo Poly Rock A company of Wales, Affresol, builder specialized in modular homes, built a house through a new technology, using 18 tons of recycled plastic. This was done with a new compound called Thermo Poly Rock (TPR) which consists in the use of recycled plastic mixed with minerals (undisclosed) to build environmentally correct homes.
Figure 1 Thermo Poly Rock (Ambincia, 2011)
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The company says that the process has low energy and the material is lighter and more resistant than concrete, and is non-flammable, waterproof, with excellent thermal insulation and does not rot. TPR plates form the supporting walls of the house, which can be covered externally with brick or stone, while inside can be placed a layer of insulation and keep the same look of a traditional house. The tiles are also made from recycled material. The company estimates that the lifespan of the houses is about 60 years, but the elements of TPR can be recycled again after this time. (Globo.com, 2011) Besides all the advantages mentioned above, there is still to highlight two relevant facts, according to the company. This is up to 12% cheaper than conventional construction and much faster, because the house will be ready at the customer's taste in just 4 days. (Ambincia, 2011) Currently the company is awaiting approval of a pilot project to build 19 homes in Merthyr, Wales, and it is expected that in coming years, this new material meets the expectations and grow into the market, with positive effects for everyone. (Globo.com 2011)
6.2. Isopet PET is a thermoplastic polymer material that has high chemical and mechanical resistance. PET bottles are the typical plastic bottles, in great abundance in the market, that with this solution can be reused directly, without going through a process of recycling, also preventing the illegal dumping of waste in landfills. The project was developed by students of Centro Federal de Educao Tecnolgica do Paran, Brasil. (Artigos.com, 2011) This solution consists in the production of blocks for the construction called ISOPET. They use internally, plastic bottles, positioned vertical or horizontally and covered with a thin layer of lightweight concrete. The blocks have grooves on the sides that generate these inter-locking so it is not necessary to use mortar to their unions, except the first row. (Artigos.com, 2011)
Figure 2 ISOPET (Recicla, 2011)
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Using these blocks, it reduces the need to extract natural resources such as coarse and fine sands. This practice also reduces the consumption of electricity, which it substantially reduces the final value of the work. In addition, this block has other great advantages in the execution of a constructive project, for its light weight, easy handling of the elements, the improvements in the thermo-acoustic characteristic and also for being an eco-block, bringing benefits not only to the construction but also to the environment and to the life quality. For the production of 365 blocks, it is needed 875 plastic bottles of 2 liters and 17 m3 of polystyrene. (Artigos.com, 2011) In 2001, only in Brazil were consumed 270,000 tons of PET and according to the Brazilian Association of Manufacturers of PET Packaging, only 89 000 of these were recycled. Thus, this product can bring great added value to market, avoiding waste and mitigating the impact to the environment.
7. CASE STUDY
7.1. Criteria for choice of materials In fact, besides the common architectural criteria in choosing materials for construction, other criteria must be respected like: Embodied energy into the material should be taken into account the energy expenditure related to the embodied energy of the material in its life cycle; Potential for reutilization and recycling of materials There are materials that can be reutilized and recycled and there are others that dont have that potential. Toxicity of the material There are certain materials that shouldnt be used in construction, because are toxic to the environment and to the humans; Economic costs associated with the life cycle of materials Most designers choose materials only taking into account the purchase price, ignoring for example the costs of maintenance, rehabilitation, demolition and disposal. These should not be neglected, because sometimes a higher initial investment may even mean in a long turn, more profitable work. Despite all these criteria are essential, the last before mentioned shall not be taken into account in this case study, because it would be too complicated to get economic costs of the materials chosen throughout its life cycle. However, it is an important factor.
7.1.1. Embodied Energy The embodied energy of materials is, by definition, "the energy consumed during their lifespan." (Pacheco, 2010) However there are different approaches to judge this issue. They are: the start of the extraction of raw materials to the factory gate (cradle to gate), from the
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beginning to the work (cradle to site) or from the start to the demolition and disposal (cradle to grave). The approach that seems more correct and will be taken into account in this subchapter shall be the third; it is this one that covers all consumption from the production phase until the end of lifespan of the material. Thus, the embodied energy in materials is the amount of energy needed for its production, transportation, application in the construction, maintenance and demolition. This energy can vary between 620% of the total energy consumed during the lifespan of a building, depending, among other factors, at the building systems used, the number of users of the building, the degree of comfort demanded by the occupants and the local climate. (Mateus)
Materials Concrete 40 MPa Ceramic brick Ceramic tile Cement Glass Steel Recycled steel Polished wood air dried Polished wood dried in greenhouse PVC
MJ/kg 1,6 2,5 0,81 7,8 15,9 32 10,1 1,16 2,5 70
MJ/m3 3890 5170 15210 40060 251200 37210 638 1380 93620
Table 1 Embodied energy of some materials (Pacheco, 2010)
7.1.2. Potential for reutilization and recycling of materials The choice of materials for a dwelling must be based on their potential for reutilization and recycling. When a material completes its life cycle, it has a certain potential for reutilization and recycling which is function of their ability to be used again as a resource. The knowledge of this capability is essential for rational management of resources and products of a building so it can be possible to achieve goals such as reducing the impact of buildings on the natural environment. Thus the list of building materials is: Metals are recyclable if it is possible to separate them by type. For example, steel and aluminum have a high potential for recycling and in general, the structural steel can be recycled and/or reutilized to 100% and may be again used as a structural element. Plastics Most plastics can be granulated and recycled to produce new products. However, the large variety of plastics and the use of additives in their production vastly complicate recycling.
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Glass can be recycled if properly separated and not contaminated. Recycling glass reduces its embodied energy by 20% (Mateus) Wood The wood products such as windows or doors, etc., can be easily reutilized if in good conditions. The structural elements can also be reutilized if they are mechanically connected allowing an easy disassembly. Concrete and ceramic products These are materials where the reutilization is extremely complicated. However, elements of concrete and ceramic products can be crushed and then recycled into aggregates for the manufacture of concrete.
7.1.3. Toxicity of Materials The toxicity of a material represents the harmful effects this can have on humans and the ecosystem that surrounds it. Each material used in building should be fully considered, especially the specifications and the manufacturing process for the identification of chemical compounds that are toxic.
7.2. Example of a house The home example with a typology "T2" has a ceiling height of 3 meters and consists of two bedrooms, a living room, a bathroom, a kitchen and a small hall. The construction floor area is 93 m2. Divisions Hall and living room Kitchen Storage Toilet Room 1 Room 2 Area (m2) 26,9 13,7 1,7 7,7 11,9 14,8
Table 2 Areas of the divisions of the home example
7.3. Element and Building Materials Chosen In a housing project and considering the energy costs, it must be taken into account several factors to minimize them. Indeed some have already been mentioned above. There are some examples like, to consider the climate of where the house will be built, the orientation of this, guarantee proper cooling of the housing and good natural lighting, among other important aspects.
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However, in this case study, these aspects are not taken into account. So, the materials of this house will be chosen if they are non-toxic, have low embodied energy and have the potential for reutilization. That way it can be concluded the amount of embodied energy saved, if, in this case, was properly performed a selective demolition and subsequent reutilization of these materials. The materials chosen are presented below.
7.3.1. Structure The structure of the considered house is in LSF (light steel frame), because this is probably the best solution to guarantee that the structure material has potential of reutilization and recycling and allows a easier deconstruction too. This construction system consists, basically in a house skeleton of lightweight steel.
Figure 3 Light Steel Frame (Engenharia Civil Wordpress, 2011)
The use of steel in the system is so significant, because the structure (walls and roof) is composed of lightweight profiles of galvanized steel. The remaining components are the fasteners (screws and connectors that join it all together), exterior finish (usually OSB oriented strand board), interior finish (usually gypsum board) and glass wool (thermal and acoustic insulation). Comparing this technique with conventional construction systems it can be verified many advantages such as: The LSF structure is much lighter weight compared to a conventional construction (concrete or masonry, for example) which allows relief for the foundation (and therefore financial savings of the same) and allows better distribution of efforts;
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In this constructive solution, the plumbing, electrical, air conditioning, gas, among others, have greater ease of access, allowing easier maintenance and economy; Important to sustainability and the environment, because this solution has no waste of material, leaving the work site clean and free of debris; The thermo acoustic result is superior in this system that in the conventional; Time limits are lower and installation is relatively easy because it is a simple operation that does not require heavy equipment and transport; It can be scheduled, monitored and controlled all steps in safety; Controlling costs at all stages; Versatile solution because it is adaptable to many architectural projects, allowing any coating and finishing; Resistant to moisture, corrosion and fire; Taking into account all these advantages, this solution will be chosen for this example. However, it is impossible to calculate accurately, without making a detailed design, the entire amount of steel used in a work of this kind. It will be made a prediction of these quantities with the accounting of profiles and sheets of galvanized steel, ignoring the screws and connectors in view of the steel used are negligible for the final weight of the building. Thus, in a following subchapter will be all these weight values and embodied energy for the considered steel.
7.3.2. Doors and Windows As mentioned earlier, the wood is an excellent material that allows recycling and reutilization in many cases. Thus, in this house, doors and windows are wooden and the areas and values embodied energy will be recorded in table 1. In addition, also it will be accounted the existing glass in doors and windows, since glass is a material that can be recycled if properly separated and not contaminated.
7.4. List of Measurements Before the measurements in Table 3, it should be mentioned some important considerations to achieve these values. The LSF is a building system composed of lightweight profiles of galvanized steel with thickness from 0.95 to 1.25 mm. Panels are formed by guides and amounts structural variable width between 90, 140 and 200mm and spacing of the amounts between 40 and 60cm depending on the thickness of the plate. In this particular case it will be considered C90 profiles and U93 profiles and a spacing of 0.5 m. So in this project we have approximately 566.08 m of U93 profiles and 315 m of C90 profiles.
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Thus, the results are in the following table. Element Structure Materials Profiles C90 Profiles U93 OSB Gypsum board Wood Glass Unit kg kg m2 m2 m3 m3 Amount 637.6 856.5 118.5 272.8 0.832 0.056 Sum Embodied Energy (MJ) 6439.76 8650.65 530.82 2243.36 17864.39
Doors and windows
Table 3 List of measurements
Note that for the results of embodied energy in Table 3, the considered wood for the doors and windows was the polished wood air dried representing 638 MJ/m3 and the steel considered was the best case scenario, i.e. the recycled steel that represents 10.1 MJ/kg, because there is no existing data for lightweight steel. In relation to the OSB and gypsum board, there are no data about their embodied energy. However, it is expected that these values are not high, because they are sustainable materials that allow recycling and reutilization in some cases. So in this case a minimum of 17864.39 MJ of energy is expended in this small house. A value that can be recovered almost entirely through the reutilization of these materials. Noteworthy is the fact that 1 MJ is approximately equal to the kinetic energy of a moving vehicle at 160 km/h. (Wikipedia, 2011) So, this way is possible to see the amount of energy wasted in a small house that, with the appropriate action taken, can be recovered, achieving major environmental, economic and social benefits.
8. CONCLUSIONS
The world is experiencing a phase of constant change and development. The construction industry is also an example, with more new materials and construction techniques, which aim to ensure comfort and security to the population. However, it cannot be dissociated the technological development from the pollution it causes. The answer to this has to be the sustainable construction. As already mentioned, this is clearly an unsustainable industry right now. It is therefore necessary to persuade the responsible people of the area to invest in new techniques and materials and also appeal to the general population to have a greater civic participation in such matters.
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It should be promoted the use of sustainable materials, focusing on recycling, reutilization and deconstruction as a way to avoid depletion of natural resources of the planet and still investigating new ways to get material that has already been used. As an example of this last fact, its the TPR and ISOPET, mentioned earlier. However, for these techniques to be successful, there are certain essential measures, already mentioned, which should be highlighted once again, because it will be used in construction, being important for future workers of the area. Thus, in order to have an efficient recycling, there are certain strategies that should be followed, such as minimizing the number of different types of materials, avoiding toxic and harmful materials and coatings whenever possible and using the maximum of mechanical connections instead of chemicals, facilitating the deconstruction of the building. In terms of recycling, the Portuguese case is even worse than the rest of Europe. The rate of recycling of materials is too low and it should be taken measures in order to reverse this trend. For example, the case of Denmark would be interesting to be copied, because fees are charged for waste delivered to treatment plants, and, when wastes are separated or are destined for recycling, these taxes are refunded. That way the recycling rate is a lot higher in Denmark than in Portugal. Regarding the reutilization, process environmentally better than recycling because it does not require industrial processes, the strategies to be taken may be, for example, separating the structure of the inner walls of the coatings, facilitating access to all parts and all components of the building and use components that facilitate handling operations. It should also be highlighted a key measure that it is using an hierarchy of disassembly related to the life expectancy of components, thereby maximizing the process, as materials with lower life expectancy will be well placed in areas with easier access. Noteworthy is the fact that deconstruction, recycling and reutilization are related. You have to ensure proper and efficient deconstruction processes to maximize recycling and reutilization. Thus, the most important thing to keep this warranty, is designing buildings providing for their future disassembly and not only its demolition. There are other important strategies, such as using modular construction, deconstruction technologies compatible with standard construction, parallel deconstruction and using lightweight materials, among others. In this case study and taking into account only the choice of materials, there is an enormous energy expenditure that can be minimized and even completely recovered through deconstruction and reutilization. Given that small house and being considered only a few materials, there are values around 18,000 MJ of embodied energy expenditures. That way its possible to see the need for a careful choice of materials allowing future reutilization and recycling, but knowing that this energy can vary between 620% of the total energy consumed during the lifespan of a building.
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In conclusion, the question that needs an answer is this: is sustainability possible? The answer is simple. Yes, it is possible, providing conditions for it, investing in education and formation, mainly of skills, not just to responsible people of the area, but also to the rest of the population.
REFERENCES
Ambincia. 2011. Obtained in March of 2011, of http://www.ambiencia.org/site/tag/thermo-poly-rock/ Artigos.com. 2011. Obtained in March of 2011, of http://www.artigos.com/artigos/engenharia/producao/isopet-%96-a-tecnologia-do-concreto-aliada-ao-meioambiente-3540/artigo/. Couto, A. B. & Couto, J. P. & Teixeira, J. C. 2006. Deconstruction A Tool for Sustainable Construction. NUTAU. 2006 Engenharia Civil Wordpress. 2011. Obtained in http://engenhariacivil.wordpress.com/2008/05/04/o-que-e-o-light-steel-framing/. June 2011, of
Globo.com. 2011. Obtained in March 2011, of http://g1.globo.com/Noticias/Ciencia/0,,MUL1503985-5603,00EMPRESA+GALESA+FAZ+CASA+COM+T+DE+PLASTICO+RECICLADO.html. Kibert, C. 2005. Sustainable Construction: Green building design and delivery, ISBN-10: 04716 Wiley Mateus R. "New building technologies for the sustainable construction" School of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering. Torgal Pacheco, F. Jalali & S. 2010. Sustainability of Construction Materials. University of Minho. School of Engineering. Planeta Casa. 2011. Obtained in March 2011, of http://casa.abril.com.br/planeta-casa/premio-2006.shtml Recicla. 2011. Obtained in March 2011, of http://recicla.wordpress.com/2007/11/29/o-uso-da-reciclagem-naconstrucao-civil/. SETAC. 1993. Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, Guidelines for Life-Cycle Assessment: A Code of Practice. Brussels. Wikipedia. 2011. Reuse. Obtained in February 2011, of http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reutiliza% C3% A7% C3% A3o. Wikipedia. 2011. Joule. Obtained in July 2011, of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joule.
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STUDY OF THE APPLICABILITY OF CONSTRUCTION SYSTEMS IN THE PERFORMANCE OF SUSTAINABILITY IN CIVIL ENGINEERING
P. M. Gameiro Henriques Professor Auxiliar, Technical University of Lisbon, Department of Civil Engineering and, Architecture pgameiro@civil.ist.utl.pt S. C. Morais Neves Master Technical University of Lisbon, Department of Civil Engineering and, Architecture, Lisboa, Portugal; saraneves84@hotmail.com
Abstract The construction sector is associated with significant environmental impacts, being a major consumer of raw materials and energy, and generating a lot of pollution. Therefore, it is essential to move towards a more sustainable construction. The selection of building materials is a relevant factor in sustainability, nevertheless seems to be more important to focus on aspects such as speed of construction and cost reduction, rather than a careful choice of materials, through life cycle assessment, as that all stages introduce environmental, social or economic impacts. As building materials, both steel and soil, have undeniable environmental advantages. This document focuses on the residential buildings sector in Portugal, describing the construction systems in Light Steel Framing and the earth construction systems. In both cases is carried out an analysis of its sustainability over the lifecycle of a building, listing the attributes of the systems allocated to the different phases design, construction, operation and end-of-life and its contribution to the sustainable culture. Keywords: sustainability, construction, materials, earth, steel, light.
1. INTRODUCTION
The construction industry is one of the largest and most active sectors across Europe, with an annual turnover of around 750 million euros. This sector represents 25% of all European production and is the world's largest exporter, with 52% market share. (Torgal & Jalali, 2010) However, the construction industry has also been one of the main responsibles for environmental degradation, from which derive other problems that harm humans and all
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their surroundings. These problems are not only the environmental pollution through the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere, but also the waste production associated to the construction and demolition of buildings (water and soil pollution), and the excessive and reckless consumption of natural resources. From this perspective there is a growing need to develop processes, methodologies and construction operations in order to significantly reduce these environmental and energy issues that arise associated with the construction industry. As a result of these concerns, in 1994, takes place in Tampa, Florida, the First International Conference on Sustainable Construction sponsored by CIB (Conseil International du Btiment pour la Recherche l'Etude et la Documentation), where the first and the most accepted definition of sustainable construction is presented by Charles Kibert, which characterizes it as "the responsible development and management of a healthy built environment, based on the efficient use of the resources and on the ecological principles (to prevent environmental damage) [2] On the same conference, Charles Kibert also established the following six basic principles of sustainable construction [3]: 1. Minimize resource consumption; 2. Maximize resource reuse; 3. Use renewable and recyclable resources; 4. Protect the natural environment; 5. Create a healthy, nontoxic environment; 6. Pursue quality in creating the built environment.
Energy Efficiency Renewable Reduce Recycle Water
Design Functionality Construction
Social, cultural and economic matters Contribution to poverty reduction Adequate conditions of hygiene and safety at work
Operation/Maintenance
Demolition/Disposal Materials and systems Reduce Select Waste Management Reduce Reuse Recycle
Figure 1 Integrated and sustainable approach to all the phases of a building life cycle [4]
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These principles should be applied through an integrated approach to all the phases that constitute the building life cycle: design, construction, operation/maintenance and demolition/disposal (Figure 1).
2. EARTH CONSTRUCTION SYSTEMS

Ever since Man builds cities, around ten thousand years ago, that buildings made of raw earth exist. Earth was among the first materials to be used by humans in the construction of their homes, largely due to the abundance of this resource in nature. Currently, three earth construction techniques are essentially employed: rammed earth, adobe and compressed earth block (CEB). The rammed earth technique consists on the construction of monolithic walls of approximately 50 cm thick, by ramming earth between two parallel frames that are then removed, revealing a completed section of hard earth wall. The adobe is a technique of building walls with earth bricks. This technique involves mixing earth with water, placing the mixture into molds (typically wooden moulds) and drying the bricks in the open air. Finally, the CEB is one of the earth construction methods that are currently more used. This technique comes from an evolution of the adobe by soil stabilization through mechanical means, and consists on compressing the soil confined in a mould, which allows obtaining compressed earth blocks with best features then the adobe blocks.
2.1. Earth construction sustainability Table 1 shows the key sustainability attributes of earth construction along the life cycle of a building. Building life cycle attribute Design Environmental advantage Since the selection of materials is a critical factor in designing a sustainable building, raw earth, as a building material, has undeniable environmental advantages and can contribute significantly to increase sustainability in construction
Material
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Building life cycle attribute Construction
Environmental advantage Earth is an environmentally friendly material because it doesnt use scarce resources, it isnt pollutant and it doesnt require transformation processes of the raw material which make use of expensive energy resources.
Material efficiency
According to Houben [5], concrete production consumes about 100 times more energy than a natural material such as earth. This is an abundant raw material that is available in almost Energy efficiency and all locations, and in many cases, its possible to use soil extracted emissions on-site, or near, reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions caused by the transportation of this material. This technology is based on simple construction techniques and can usually resort to low-qualified manpower. Since the use of heavy machinery isnt necessary, depending only on simple tools, this process can be executed by the final users (self-construction), resulting on a more economical and safe construction. Earth construction practically doesn't produce waste, except for those that result from the use of other materials. Earth construction waste (unstabilized) can simply be deposited in the extraction site without any environmental hazard involved. Even when it is stabilized with lime or cement, the soil can be reused again in this type of construction. [1]
Construction costs and on-site safety
Waste
Operation Earth construction uses a natural material and therefore non-toxic, so it isnt generally associated with the harmful effects of indoor air pollution with Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), presenting no pernicious effect on the health of building occupants.
Health
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Building life cycle attribute
Environmental advantage Earth construction has the ability to regulate the level of indoor air humidity. [6] Arundel et al [7] reported that relative humidity levels above 70% stimulate the growth of mold, which can trigger allergic reactions. Relative humidity values above 60% are associated with the presence of mites that cause allergic diseases such as asthma [6].
Relative humidity control
On the other hand, relative humidity values below 40% are linked to the sick building syndrome, typical of very dry environments. Prolonged exposure to this type of environment results on the drying of the respiratory mucosa, which propitiates the appearance of respiratory diseases such as tonsillitis, pharyngitis and bronchitis. [8] Based on these considerations, we conclude that for purposes of human health, the level of indoor air relative humidity should be maintained between 40% and 60%. Earth construction can maintain relative humidity levels in this range. [9] Earth construction is characterized by having a high mass per unit area. Buildings that employ this technology have high thermal inertia, making it suitable for climatic zones with large temperature variations. This allows significant energy savings during the operation phase, as earth buildings use less energy for heating and cooling. Due to its high mass, earth walls stand as an excellent acoustic insulator, which contributes to the comfort inside a home. The fact that raw earth is incombustible helps to protect the environment from air pollution and deforestation. Earth construction is a technology used for thousands of years, and there are examples of buildings with several centuries of existence, which are still in perfect conditions. In fact, earth buildings have a high durability, if properly protected from the harshest weather conditions for example, due to the soil porosity it should be protected from rain and not exposed to long periods of wetting. It is essential to maintain water protection at the top and bottom of the walls. Therefore, this type of construction requires proper maintenance and preservation.
Thermal comfort
Acoustic comfort
Fire resistance
Durability
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Building life cycle attribute End-of-life
Environmental advantage During the end-of-life stage, raw earth materials can be returned to nature more easily than any other material. In fact, earth, when used without additives, can be reused an unlimited number of times and does not constitute, therefore, a harmful waste to the environment after its demolition. Even when it is object of stabilization with lime or cement, the soil can be reused again in this type of construction.
Reusability
Table 1 Earth construction sustainability along the life cycle of a building
2.2. Light Steel Framing construction system The construction systems with lightweight steel framing emerge as an alternative to the traditional construction system reinforced concrete structure and ceramic brick masonry in the quest for greater sustainability, by reducing the consumption of raw materials, the use of more environmentally friendly building materials and a more industrialized construction process. This construction system is mostly known as Light Steel Framing (LSF) and is specially directed to the construction of two or three storey buildings, with a structure made of galvanized steel profiles of low thickness, resulting in a rather low total weight of the structural elements. Structural steel, due to its superior resistance when compared to reinforced concrete, allows the execution of structural elements with lower sections, enabling the construction of lighter and larger structures, which consume fewer raw materials. Moreover, unlike reinforced concrete, steel can be easily reused or recycled at the end of the buildings service life. [10] This construction system is characterized by a higher degree of industrialization in comparison with the conventional reinforced concrete construction, since a large part of the building elements are produced in a factory and not on-site, which translates into a higher speed of construction, a decreased amount of manpower and heavy equipment required, improved hygiene conditions and safety on-site and a reduced amount of waste.
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2.3. Constitution 2.3.1. Structure The material used in the structure of an LSF building is galvanized steel. The columns and beams used in LSF buildings are obtained from galvanized steel sheets by immersion in hot zinc. The production process of the mentioned profiles consists in cutting rolls of steel sheet into smaller width strips. The sheet is then cold-formed into the desired shape by bending or roll forming processes. The most popular sections used in the LSF system are the U-shape and C-shape profiles. These parts vary both in section, and in thickness, depending on the type of solutions adopted and the loads that the building will be subject to. On the wall structure it is common to use profiles with heights of the section varying between 80 and 150 mm, and sheet thickness between 0.8 and 2 mm. [11] On the structure of the slabs, the minimum height of the profiles section is 150 mm and the maximum may reach 300 mm, with sheet thickness varying between 1,5 and 4 mm. 2.3.2. Exterior walls The exterior walls of the LSF system are composed by several layers that perform different functions in order to satisfy a number of requirements structural, thermal, acoustic, etc. (Figure 1).
2 x Gypsum plasterboard Rock wool INT. EXT.
Reinforced waterproof render Expanded polystyrene (EPS)
OSB Skirting board Bituminous membrane Ground floor Foundation beam
Figure 1 Schematic representation of a possible constructive solution to the exterior walls of the LSF system [10]
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The exterior coating of the walls is usually done by using composite systems like ETICS External Thermal Insulation Composite Systems which act both as thermal insulation and, coating and finishing material. In the case of the LSF system, the support for the system application generally consists of OSB Oriented Strand Board which, as its name implies, are panels composed of oriented wood fibers. Basically, the system consists of six distinct components: 1. Fixing to the support by screwing and/or bonding; 2. Expanded polystyrene (EPS) boards , whose thickness varies according to the need for thermal protection; 3. Base layer which protects the building and prevents air infiltration; 4. Metallic or fiberglass mesh that gives strength to the coating and whose thickness varies according to the desired level of impact resistance; 5. Primer (opaque resin-based paint in aqueous solution), which regulates the absorption and improves the adhesion of the finishing; 6. Thick plastic coating, highly elastic and available in a variety of colors and textures. The interior coating of the exterior walls, such as the coating of the interior walls, is accomplished through gypsum plasterboards, which are bolted directly onto the steel frame. In terms of sound insulation, the material most commonly used in this type of solution is rock wool. The rock wool blankets are placed in the cavities between the vertical profiles of the structure. This material, in addition to improving the acoustic performance, is also a thermal insulator, complementing the action of ETICS. 2.3.3. Interior walls The interior walls of the LSF system are sandwich panels, coated with gypsum plasterboards on both sides, and its interior filled with sound absorbent material, usually rock wool, as noted above (Figure 2).
Perspective
Ground plan
Figure 2 Schematic representation of the constructive solution to the interior walls of the LSF system: 1 gypsum plasterboard, 2 rock wool, 3 wall structure [10]
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2.3.4. Floor slabs There are many constructive solutions for the floor slabs. These relate to the type of structural coating and type of structural profiles used in this case, C-shape profiles which can be hot rolled if the slab is subjected to significant loads. In Figure 3 can be seen two possible constructive solutions for the floor slabs.
Concrete Coating OSB Rock wool Coating Steel deck
Reinforcement
Galvanized steel profile
Gypsum plasterboard
Galvanized steel profile
Rock wool
Gypsum plasterboard
a)
b)
Figure 3 Schematic representation of a slab on the LSF system. a) with structural coating of OSB, b) with structural coating of steel deck [10]
2.3.4.1. Steel framing sustainability Steel construction ensures durability, efficiency and recyclability. These properties add value to it as sustainable construction, by promoting a lower environmental impact at the design, construction, operation and end-of-life phases. Table 2 presents a summary of the sustainability attributes of steel in construction. Building life cycle attribute Transportation Construction Waste On-site safety Construction time and cost Pre-fabricated and pre-cut components Lightweight Less waste on-site; waste produced off-site can be recovered and reused. Safer building sites. Easier to assemble; reduced construction time; may reduce construction costs. Reduced need for heavy lifting equipment; may reduce construction time and cost. Properties of steel Lightweight Environmental advantage Potentially reduced transport costs.
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Building life cycle attribute Foundations On-site and off-site disturbance
Properties of steel
Environmental advantage Smaller foundations and less excavation; allowing soil preservation and less earthmoving required. Less disruption of nearby built and natural environments (noise, traffic, pollution, etc.). Material efficiency fewer resources required; cost effective. Potential reuse of existing structures. The components of steel structures are delivered on-site at the time of assembly, minimizing the storage area on-site and contributing to a more efficient construction site. Enables the construction of large internal volumes, making it easier to adapt to new functional requirements. Good cross-ventilation; improved indoor air quality. The building envelope ensures good thermal insulation, increasing comfort and health conditions for users. Tight envelopes minimize air leakage. Fewer resources spent on maintenance and replacement. Steel construction is made with materials that have low emissions, better indoor air quality. Allows designing for disassembly and reuse. Steel has the ability to be recycled over and over again without losing any properties or performance capabilities, minimizing the generation of waste resulting from demolition.
High strength High strengthweight ratio Materials use Efficiency
Operation Adaptability Ventilation
High strengthweight ratio
Thermal comfort and energy consumption
Low thermal mass Prefabrication Durability Indoor air quality Longa lifespan 100% recyclable
Maintenance Health End-of-life Reusability Recyclability
Table 2 Steel construction sustainability along the life cycle of a building (Adapted from [12])
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3. CONCLUSION
The construction industry is directly or indirectly responsible for significant environmental impacts, which can compromise in medium to long term life quality of the future generations. That said, it is known that on the national scene, the construction industry is going through a critical phase of stagnation in evolutionary terms, being necessary the development and dissemination of innovative solutions that not only bring dynamism and technological advancement as well as minimize environmental impacts. Due to the natural characteristics of steel, steel structures allow the optimization of natural resources and provide a more rational and effective built environment. Entered here, the LSF system offers a real possibility of progress with regard to the quality of constructive solutions and efficiency of the materials it employs, while contributing to a more sustainable construction. On the other hand, there is a momentum towards the reintroduction of ancient construction techniques, which were eventually abandoned over time, and which may have an important contribution to the sustainable culture. Earth construction has competitive advantages over traditional construction due to its low energy consumption, to be associated with low or almost zero pollution levels and also for its ability to control the relative humidity inside buildings at levels beneficial to human health.
REFERENCES
TORGAL, F. e JALALI, S. A Sustentabilidade dos Materiais de Construo. Guimares : Edio TecMinho, 2010. KIBERT, C. Establishing Principles and a Model for Sustainable Construction. Proceedings of the First International Conference on Sustainable Construction. Tampa, EUA : s.n., 1994. PINHEIRO, M. Construo Sustentvel Mito ou Realidade? Lisboa : VII Congresso Nacional de Engenharia do Ambiente, 2003. BRAGANA, L. e MATEUS, R. Tecnologias construtivas para a sustentabilidade da construo. Porto : Edies Ecopy, 2006. HOUBEN, H. Ecological and energy-saving advantages and benefits of building with earth. Studies in Environmental Science. 1994, Vol. Vol. 60, pp. 941948. MINKE, G. Building with Earth, Design and Technology of a Sustainable Architecture. Basel Berlin Boston : Birkhuser Publishers for Architecture, 2006. ARUNDEL, A., et al. Indirect health effects of relative humidity in indoor environments. Environmental Health Perspectives. 1986, Vol. Vol. 65, pp. 351361. HEERWAGEN, J. Green buildings, organizational success and occupant productivity. Building Research & Information. 2000, Vol. Vol. 28, pp. 353367. MORTON, T. Earth Masonry Design and Construction Guidelines. s.l. : IHS BRE Press, 2008. BRAGANA, L. e MATEUS, R. Tecnologias construtivas para a sustentabilidade da construo. Porto : Edies Ecopy, 2006. Futureng. [Online] [Citao: 12 de Maio de 2011.] http://futureng.wikidot.com. Living Steel. Steel in sustainable buildings. [Online] [Citao: 6 de Junho de 2011.] www.livingsteel.org.
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SITUATIONAL INFLUENCES ON QUANTITY SURVEYORS WHEN FACING ETHICAL DILEMMAS

Christabel M. F. Ho Assistant Professor, Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom Kowloon.Hong Kong, bscrysta@polyu.edu.hk
Abstract This paper focuses on analyzing the impact of interest considerations of quantity surveyors on their case-specific responses, which is a direct investigation of situational influences upon decisions towards ethical dilemmas. Hypotheses are tested by rigorous statistical techniques such as Multivariate Analysis of Variance and Hierarchical Regression Analysis. It is found that the less experienced the quantity surveyors are, the more emphasis they place on the interest of their colleagues; and the more senior the membership and less educated they are, the more emphasis they would place on the interest of their employer. Moreover, given the same personal profile, the quantity surveyors can be classified as either stressing their self-interest while disregarding the interest of their employer, or emphasizing the interest of their employer while sacrificing their own interest. Post-work ethical training tools enhance quantity surveyors' emphasis on their own interest. Keywords: Professional ethics, Ethical dilemmas, Interaction effects, Ethical training
1. INTRODUCTION It is believed that professions survive only if the public has confidence in them (Chalkley, 1990). The fact that professions can command public confidence rests on two essential elements: professional knowledge and ethical conduct. However, there is an accelerating trend towards specialization. Professional knowledge has become more and more sophisticated and specialized. It can be seen with quantity surveying firms and quantity surveyors specialising in tax depreciation, facilities management, due diligence and compliance, dispute resolution, contract management, project management, etc (Lowry, 2004). This is one of the reasons why many quantity surveyors do not find the RICS Rules of Conduct helpful when deal with moral issues and ethical dilemmas (Ho & Ng, 2003). Despite this increased criticism to the codes of conducts, empirical study of ethical decision making in organizations are in relatively short supply (Jones, 1991). Ferrell and Gresham (1985) developed a contingent ethical decision making model focusing on the marketing field, whereas Trevino (1986) offered a general theoretical person-situation interactionist model.
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Bommer et al., (1987) presented a behaviour model which lists all the variables that purportedly influence the ethical decision of employees in an organizational context. By the same token, Stead (1990) tendered an integrative model that conceptually demonstrates the relationship among a myriad of individual and organizational/situational variables. The purposes of this paper are to introduce Jones (1991) issue-contingent ethical decision making model and to report the empirical finding of the influences of moral issue on Quantity Surveyors (QS) ethical decision making. QS ethical decision relating to their background, ethical training, and general ethical perceptions are also presented in this paper . This paper investigates how the case-specific interest considerations of quantity surveyors are affected by their background, ethical training, and interest considerations. The case studies detailed in Fan, Ho and Ng (2001a, 2001b) papers.
2. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
The research objectives particular to this paper are: To explore the perceptions and decisions of quantity surveyors towards common ethical dilemmas To investigate the differences among subgroups of respondents and the effects of background and ethical training on their perceptions and decisions To investigate the interaction and moderating effects among background variables
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research Approach Two case studies, which are detailed in Fan, Ho and Ng (2001a, 2001b) as Case 1 concerning ghost workers while Case 2 concerning outside work respectively. The following hypotheses are developed with reference to the mentioned cases. Hypothesis 1 (H1): Quantity surveyors' considerations and decisions are different towards different ethical dilemmas, i.e. case-specific. Hypothesis 2 (H2): The background variables of quantity surveyors strongly differentiate their ethical consideration and decision towards the same ethical dilemma. Hypothesis 3a (H3a): The effect of membership negatively moderates that of age, education level and experience, and vice versa. Hypothesis 3b (H3b): The effect of membership positively moderates that of gender, organization type and management level, and vice versa.
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Hypothesis 3c (H3c): The effect of gender negatively moderates that of age, education level, organization type, experience and management level, and vice versa. Hypothesis 3d (H3d): The effect of age negatively moderates that of organization type and management level, and vice versa. Hypothesis 3e (H3e): The effect of age positively moderates that of education level and experience, and vice versa. Hypothesis 3f (H3f): The effect of education level negatively moderates that of organization type and management level, and vice versa. Hypothesis 3g (H3g): and vice versa. The effect of education level positively moderates that of experience,
Hypothesis 3h (H3h): The effect of organization type negatively moderates that of experience, and vice versa. Hypothesis 3i (H3i): The effect of organization type positively moderates that of management level, and vice versa. Hypothesis 3j (H3j): level, and vice versa. The effect of experience negatively moderates that of management
Sampling and Data Collection The population of the study is those quantity surveyors having a membership in the Quantity Surveying Division (QSD) of Hong Kong Institute of Surveyors (HKIS) and practicing in Hong Kong. Snowball sampling method was used and the self-administered questionnaires were distributed to quantity surveyors practicing in the five types of organizations, i.e. Academy, Public Client, Private Client, Consultants and Main Contractor. The questionnaires successfully reached about 7% of the population and over 80% of the returned questionnaires are usable. The final sample size is 10% of the population.
Measures All background variables are measured in Part I of the questionnaire (Fan, Ho and Ng, 2001a) and the background variables include Membership (M), Gender (G), Age (A), Education Level (EL), Experience (EX), Management Level (ML) and Organization Type (O). Gender (G) and Organization Type (O) are classified as categorical variables while the rest of background variables as ordinal variables. The seven ethical training tools selected are Prevention of Bribery Ordinance, RICS/HKIS Bye-law, RICS/HKIS Regulations, RICS Rule of Conduct for
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Chartered Surveyors, Corporate Code of Conduct, College Courses and CPD Courses. Quantity surveyors perceptions towards ethical theories under case-free situation are revealed from their responses to the 4-point Likert Scale in Question 2.5. The seven ethical theories selected are Egoism, Utilitarianism, Right, Justice, Duty, Categorical Imperative and NORM. The interest considerations of quantity surveyors concern the interest of Self, Employer, Client, Superior, Colleagues (including Subordinate), Family and General Public. These interest considerations under case-free situation are reflected from Question 2.6 in Part II of the questionnaire (see Fan et al., 2001a paper).
4. DATA ANALYSIS METHODS

Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) helps indicate the differences among subgroups of various independent variables; whereas Hierarchical Regression Analysis (HRA) investigates the cause-effect relationship between variables by progressively incorporating different sets of independent variables. The three sets of hypotheses described above are tested by MANOVA and HRA. Both primary regression equations, quantity surveyors case-specific interest considerations are set as dependent variables at the same time. More than one subsidiary regression equations are hence envisaged in each primary regression equation, which is expressed as a matrix. Model 1 includes the main effect of quantity surveyors' background variables only. The set of interaction variables showing the interaction effects of the background variables are further incorporated in Model 2. Model 3 replaces the interaction effects by ethical training effects (Question 2.3). Case-free ethical (Question 2.5) and interest (Question 2.6) considerations are included in Model 4 and 5 respectively.
5. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The research results suggest the subgroups of quantity surveyors background variables do not have significant differences in their interest considerations for both cases. Nevertheless, it still can conclude from Case 1 that the less experienced the quantity surveyors are, the more emphasis they place on the interest of their colleagues. However, both the less educated (from Case 1) and highly educated (from Case 2) quantity surveyors are found to emphasis their self-interest. Unless the contingent nature of ethical dilemmas is highly recognized, it is neither sensible nor logical to accept the coexistence of these findings. In addition, it is also found from Case 2 that the more senior the membership and less educated they are, the more emphasis they would place on the interest of their employer. The characteristic composition of the professional population again serves as a good reason for this: the top management is usually less educated than the middle and low management level, albeit much more experienced. As far as interaction effects are concerned, Organization Type and Age seem to induce differences in interest considerations among the subgroups of those interaction variables
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consisting of one of the two in Case 1 while Age and Management Level take up this role in Case 2. These interaction effects have quite different predicting power towards quantity surveyors interest considerations for the two cases. For Case 1, they are effective in predicting quantity surveyors interest consideration of Self while it is the case for the interest of Employer in Case 2. In case of Self-interest consideration, Organization Type positively moderates Education Level but negatively moderates Age, Experience and Management Level; Age positively moderates Experience and Management Level but negatively moderates Membership and Education Level; and Experience negatively moderates Management Level. For the interest of Employer, Organization Type and Membership positively moderate Experience and Management Level; Age positively moderates Membership and Education Level but negatively moderates Experience; and Management Level positively moderates Education Level and Experience. It is very obvious that the moderating relationships for the interest considerations of Self and Employer very often run in the opposite direction against each other. This means that given the same personal profile, the quantity surveyors can be classified as either stressing their self-interest while disregarding the interest of their employer, or emphasizing the interest of their employer while sacrificing their own interest. Ethical training is only moderately powerful in predicting quantity surveyors' interest considerations for both cases. The ethical training tools show significant effects on interest considerations of Self and General Public in Case 1 while only on interest consideration of Self in Case 2. However, for the two cases, post-work ethical training tools work well in enhancing quantity surveyors' emphasis on their own interest. It is also interesting to note from Case 2 that those quantity surveyors having studied RICS Rule of Conduct, Corporate Code of Conduct and College Courses tend to disregard their Self-interest. Ethical schools of thought are more powerful in predicting quantity surveyors interest considerations in Case 2 than in Case 1. Again, their predicting power in this regard is interestspecific. For Case 1, those quantity surveyors, who concern whether their ethical decisions can benefit great number of people, i.e. Utilitarianism, tend to emphasize their self-interest and the interest of general public. At the same time, it is interesting to note that those who generally emphasize their own interest, i.e. Egoism, tend to emphasize the interest of general public. It is argued that the quantity surveyors always take the interest of general public into account as if it is their self-interest. However, Case 2 tells an entirely different story. The more the quantity surveyors emphasize the reasoning of their ethical decisions, i.e. Right, in general, the more they would care about the interest of their family. The self-interest and the interest of employer seem to be contradictory in the mind of the quantity surveyors again. Case 2 shows that the less they prefer to the concept of NORM and Utilitarianism, the more emphasis they would place on their own interest; at the same time, the more they prefer to the concept of Utilitarianism and NORM, the more emphasis they would place on the interest of their employer. This reinforces the necessity of further investigating the conflicts between quantity surveyors self-interest and the interest of their employer. The predicting power of quantity surveyors' interest considerations under case-free situation is only minimal. This means that the case-free interest considerations do not always have significant impact on case-specific interest considerations. Nevertheless, those quantity
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surveyors who generally emphasize the interest of their colleagues would also emphasize their own interest for both cases. It is interesting to note from Case 1 that the less emphasis the quantity surveyors put on the interest of their superior and client in general, the more they would emphasize their own interest as well as the interest of colleagues. In this case, quantity surveyors self-interest not only runs against the interest of their employer but also the interest of their client and superior.
REFERENCES
Bommer, M., C. Gratto., J. Gravander.; and M. Tuttle. (1987) A Behaviour Model of Ethical and Unethical Decision Making. Journal of Business Ethics. 6. pp265287. Chalkley, R. (1990) Professional Conduct: A Handbook for Chartered Surveyors, Surveyors Holdings Ltd., London. Fan, L., Ho, C., and Ng, V. (2001a) A Study of Quantity Surveyors Ethical Behavior. Construction Management and Economics, 19, 1936. Fan, C. N. L., Ho, M. H. C., and Ng, V. (2001b) Effect of Professional Socialization on Quantity Surveyors Ethical Perceptions in Hong Kong. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 8, 304312. Ferrell, O.C., and L Gresham. (1985). A contingency framework for understanding ethical decision making in marketing. Journal of Marketing. Summer, Vol.49, pp.8796. Ho Man-fong, Christabel and Ng Chi-wai, Vincent (2003). 'Quantity surveyors' background and training, and their ethical concepts, conceptions and interests considerations. Construction Management and Economic. Vol. 21. Number 1. pp4368 Jones, T.M. (1991) Ethical Decision Making By Individuals in Organisations: An issue-contingent model. Academy of Management Review 16. pp366395. Lowry, John (2004). Meeting in the middle: a quantity surveying perspective on changing education need for the professions. The Building Economist. The Journal of Australian Institute of Quantity Surveyors. June. pp.415. Stead, E., D. Worrell., and J. G. Stead (1990) An Integrative Model for Understanding and Managing Ethical Behaviour in Business Organisations. Journal of Business Ethics 9 pp233242. Trevino, L.K.(1986). Ethical decision making in organisations: a person-situation interactionist model. Academy of Management Review. Vol.11. No.3.pp.601617.
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KNOWLEDGE MAPS FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED CONSTRUCTION FIRMS

Boena Hoa, Andrzej Polak, Krzysztof Gawron, Marek Sawicki and Maciej Morka Wrocaw University of Technology, Wrocaw, Poland bozena.hola@pwr.wroc.pl, andrzej.polak@pwr.wroc.pl, krzysztof.gawron@pwr.wroc.pl, marek.sawicki@pwr.wroc.pl, maciej.morka@pwr.wroc.pl Wiktor Gronowicz Gronowicz P. U. Co., Wrocaw, Poland, wiktor.gronowicz@gmail.com Mirosaw Skibniewski National University of Singapore, Singapore and University of Maryland, College Park, USA
Abstract The focus of this paper is knowledge management in a construction firm. A knowledge map has been chosen as a method to develop a tool for knowledge acquisition in regard to the most important processes occurring in a construction firm during the execution of a construction project. The proposed Knowledge Map is intended for small and medium-sized construction companies. An appropriate questionnaire was developed to aid in the knowledge acquisition, and with this aid the most important management processes were identified. Subsequently, audits were carried out in selected firms. The aim of the audits was to define the fields of knowledge which are important for construction company management, and which should be included in the Knowledge Map. The following fields of knowledge pertaining to a construction company were taken into account: system and environment, assets and resources, processes, construction projects, documents, and construction company development. The paper presents a resultant IT-based system prototype under development, featuring the Knowledge Map for the support of company management personnel. This IT solution allows the firm to accumulate knowledge, support management personnel, and enable expedient use of the compiled knowledge in a construction business. Keywords: construction business, Knowledge Map, knowledge management, information processing, quality management.
1. INTRODUCTION
Each construction firm, as is the case in other areas of business enterprise, must possess essential knowledge needed to run its business. This knowledge is contained in documents, databases, but also in employees minds. The level of knowledge and its range are constantly changing in the course of running the business. On one hand, knowledge is developed and
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enriched with new experiences. On the other hand, some elements of knowledge naturally disappear because they are not recorded anywhere. The subject of this paper is knowledge management in a construction company. In many construction firms the knowledge acquired during the course of a project fades away with time. The main reason for this phenomenon is the turnover of the company personnel including key experts of various aspects of the company business, and lack of regular recording and archiving of significant experiences acquired and events observed during the execution of company projects. The recording of such knowledge and experience will enable its analysis and the arrival at useful conclusions for the future. A knowledge map can become a tool for recording of experiences and potential innovations. The remainder of this paper presents a Knowledge Map based on the process approach. The authors describe a prototypical computer program under development, its application supporting the companys executive management staff allowing for the accumulation of knowledge, and its implementation in the firm for which they are responsible.
2. CLASSIFICATION OF CONSTRUCTION FIRMS IN REGARD TO KNOWLEDGE MAPPING

2.1 Surveys As shown by the numerous studies (e.g. Dave and Koskela 2009, Galant and Perechuda 2005, Gruszczyska-Malec and Rutkowska 2011), the application of the process approach to the management of a construction company significantly affects the improvement of its efficiency and competitiveness in the construction market. Moreover, this approach in construction companies considering the application of knowledge maps is likely to facilitate the implementation of quality, safety and environmental sustainability management strategies and processes. A survey questionnaire directed at construction firms for the purpose of compiling information on the extent of implementation of pre-defined business processes. These processes are based on sound business practices in the construction industry and their formal implementation is required by Polish law. The questionnaire forms were distributed electronically through a website installed on a Wrocaw University of Technology server, and by conventional mail sent out to the targeted construction companies. The respondents selected and marked the processes that are being implemented in their firm and the processes which are not but, in their opinion, should be implemented. In effect, the survey results implied indirectly the extent of compliance with the applicable law in relation to the implementation of the required processes. However, a number of smaller companies indicated that a number of the applicable processes being implemented are being outsourced to outside business organizations.
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The construction industry organizations which participated in the survey included very small firms 40%, small firms 38%, medium-sized firms 12% and large firms 10%. The types of these firms were as follows: construction contractors 65%, design firms 20%, consultants and suppliers to the construction industry 12%, and 3% of the surveyed organizations were design-build firms. The survey results are shown in Figures 1 and 2. Figures 1 and 2 indicate strong participation in the survey among small and medium-sized construction contractors. Thus, the proposed knowledge map will be intended primarily for small to medium-sized construction firms focusing on planning, designing and execution of field construction work.
10% 12% 40%
< 9 employees 1049 employees 50249 employees > 250 employees

38%
Figure 1. Sizes of surveyed organizations according to number of employees
12% 3%
20%
Design forms Construction contractors Design-build firms Consultants and suppliers
65%
Figure 2. Types of organizations surveyed
2.2. Classification factors in regard to construction company knowledge Management processes related to a construction project are usually complicated due to the following factors: Constructed facilities can be complex, depending on their nature and size. Planning, design and construction processes are not subject to pertinent zoning limitations, design codes, environmental impact analyses, stakeholder interests, as well as labor and safety laws, fire protection and historic landmark regulations, technical inspection requirements, and others.
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This multitude of constraints and requirements create a complex environment for the management of a large construction project. Construction processes are carried out in continuously changing conditions due to a number of possible variations related to the choices of building material, structural design and shop drawing solutions, as well as the ever changing work environment on site as the project progresses. Moreover, inclement weather conditions and natural disasters may have a significant impact on site productivity. Large construction companies are typically equipped with complex computer-based business management systems (e.g. Enterprise Resource Management and similar solutions) which support a wide array of project and business management functions (Tserng et al. 2010, Vandaie 2008). Such systems are typically nonexistent in small and medium-sized construction firms, owing to the size of financial investment required for their acquisition, training and implementation (Tatari et al. 2008, Tatari and Skibniewski 2011, Chung et al. 2009). Unlike in large construction firms, in small and medium-sized companies the management staff are often limited to only one person (typically the owner) or at most to a few individuals with some design knowledge and substantial experience in field construction processes, but with less knowledge in the management aspects of a construction company and in related issues. Two hundred small and medium-sized construction firms decided to participate in this research. However, their knowledge about the process approach and the potential benefits for their firm resulting from its application in practice were almost non-existent. The above factors contributed to the decision to develop a computer tool for knowledge management aimed predominantly at small to medium-sized construction contracting firms. For the reasons stated above, such a tool should be relatively simple and easy to implement in construction practice.
3. RANGE OF KNOWLEDGE COVERED BY KNOWLEDGE MAPS

3.1. Process approach applied to Knowledge Mapping Process approach is one of the most popular trends in construction project and business management (Tserng et al. 2010). The process approach is defined for the industry by PN-EN ISO 9001:2008 Quality Management Systems Requirements standard (ISO 9001:2008). According to this standard "the desired result is achieved more efficiently when activities and their related resources are managed as a process." The essence of the process approach is a presentation of all duties performed by laborers on site and corporate office employees as processes, and constant focus on and improvement of the processes. According to the PN-ISO 10006:2005 Quality management systems; Guidelines for quality in the management in projects standard (ISO 10006:2005), the process is defined as a
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set of mutually connected resources and activities which transform an input state to an output state. Operations are elementary parts of a process. They cover the whole of all actions performed (without a pause) in a specific workplace by a particular employee or a group of employees. The processes are one of the major domains detailed on the Knowledge Map. Due to the importance of a process for a company activity, classification of the processes is applied. In this paper processes are divided into three groups: the main processes, the supporting processes and the management processes (Gruszczyska-Malec and Rutkowska 2011). The main processes are related to the main activity of a company. They might arise from the character of company activity (e.g. production processes or service processes) or legislation (e.g. government department). It is assumed that they create value for a customer. The supporting processes are for the support for the main processes in their proper functioning. The supporting processes might concern: maintenance (e.g. machine repair, conservation, etc.), storage, transport and control. The management processes are related to the management/administration of a company and they are to monitor the operation of an entire company as well as to take appropriate actions to improve work organization. The management processes involve inventorying, financial settlements, business plan development, training, work safety management, improvement of management, and others. The authors assumed the following classification of processes with application to knowledge maps for construction company management: 1. The main/primary processes (MP), including the processes of project planning (PP), project design (PD), and project execution (PE). 2. The supporting processes (SP), including the processes focused on materials delivery area (DA) and project inspection and testing area (PIT). 3. The management processes (MP), including the processes of personnel management (P), financial management (F), risk management (R), general administration (GA), and tactical supervision of company operations (TS).
4. STRUCTURE OF THE KNOWLEDGE MAP

A company can be regarded as a system operating in a given environment. The production, supporting, and management processes are the results of the functioning of such a system. In order to accomplish the processes, tangible resources are needed including people, materials and equipment, as well as intangible resources such as intellectual property in the form of technical know-how/ trade secrets, patents, trademarks or copyrights. The
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knowledge required for the realization of company processes has to be documented. The records from of the completed processes (which are the evidence of the management decisions taken by the company) are created during the execution of each process. The undertaking of construction work is associated with various hazards and risks. The assessment of completed processes, personnel employed, design service providers, subcontractors and suppliers, as well as the entire projects is essential for the proper functioning and growth of a construction company. The results of these assessments have an impact on the company growth decisions concerning innovation and possible organizational changes. Change and innovation are the most important factors for company growth. These observations form the basis for the classification of knowledge related to a company (Gattulli and Chiaramonte 2005, Lin et al. 2006, Tserng et al. 2008). The proposed Knowledge Map consists of seven domains of knowledge which are significant for the proper management of a construction company (El-Diraby and Zhang 2006, Gabrielaitis and Bauys 2006, Hoa and Polak 2011). These domains are shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3. Knowledge Map structure with knowledge domain classification
The first domain of knowledge, defined as System and Surroundings, is used to identify a construction company and its business environment. This domain contains knowledge about the field of business activity, the organizational structure of the company, government departments and organizations with whom cooperation is either required by applicable laws and regulations or the by the nature of business or technology employed. The second domain of knowledge contains information about assets and resources at the disposal of a construction company. This domain is used to identify the tangible and intangible resources of the company. The tangible resources include personnel, owned equipment and tools, as well as real estate. The intangible resources include intellectual property such as trade secrets, patents, trademarks and copyrights. The next two domains of knowledge contain business knowledge and experience related either to the execution of construction projects or related to applicable legislation, including design codes and technical standards which are enforced, as well as the construction know-how. The domain processes consist of the applicable processes
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identified from the completed surveys of the construction firms. This set of processes was divided into three subsets, i.e. the main processes, the supporting processes and the management processes. The main processes include all the processes occurring in the construction project. The supporting processes are related to the support functions with respect to the conduct of construction activity, e.g. transport, purchasing of materials, testing of structural components. Management processes occur in each construction company regardless of the type of its construction industry segment or activity. They include personnel, finance, and risk management. The elaboration of individual process procedures follows the requirements of the PN-EN ISO 9001:2008 Quality Management Systems Requirements standard. The explicit knowledge about a construction company should be contained in the existing documentation. The Documents domain of knowledge was divided into three subsets. The first is formed by the internal documents created within a construction company and includes work orders and instructions, daily reports, meeting minutes, and other supporting documentation. The second subset contains external documents required by laws and regulations such as: legal acts and decrees, design codes and applicable standards. The third subset, Control of documents, specifies the people responsible for creating, supervision, approvals and storage of the documents. In this domain of knowledge, a user of the Knowledge Map will also find the forms and formats of the typical documents found in a construction company, as well as hyperlinks to the websites from where one can download the currently applicable laws and forms. Figure 4 shows an example of an integrated database of documents. The Completed and Ongoing Projects domain of knowledge features a dynamic character of the Knowledge Map. In this domain the user will find information about the completed projects or ongoing site work, or about projects still in the planning or design phases. Using the questions contained in the Defined Tasks subset, the user can group the processes for each construction project of interest. A set of processes related to a specific contract can be derived from the process grouping. The required documents and the range of personnel responsibilities involved in a project are automatically generated together with the process. Monitoring and assessment of risks associated with business activities are required in quality management systems. The following components are included in the Analyses and Corrections domain of knowledge: assessment of risk, assessments of processes, staff and suppliers as well as complaints from internal and external customers together with corrective actions taken. The element labeled Risk contains the assessment of risk associated with the production quality, work conditions, environmental protection and financing. The element labeled Assessments includes the methodology of assessments of the completed processes, as well as of the project personnel and suppliers. A 5-stage scoring scale has been proposed. Information concerning the lodged complaints, which forms the basis for revisions in service quality and business management, is very important for proper functioning of a construction company in a competitive market.
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Figure 4. Example of integrated database of documents
The last but equally important domain of knowledge detailed in a knowledge map concerns the lessons learned. The Lessons Learned domain records business process improvements resulting from the completion of a construction project, individual and collective experience, implementation of employees ideas, applications of product or process improvements, other innovations and changes resulting from them. The contents of Lessons Learned, identified and recorded on the knowledge map, decide whether the user deals with a knowledge management system, or merely an information management system. This distinction comes from one of the definitions of knowledge specifying it as the combination of information with experience, interpretation and inference (Jemielniak and Komiski 2012). For this purpose information is defined as organized data and presented in text form, in graphic figures or with numbers. On the basis of information available it is possible to formulate conclusions and predictions. As far as information has a descriptive and historical character, knowledge concerns future events. It can be concluded that identification and recording of the Lessons Learned contents (innovations and changes) is a condition for the existence of a knowledge management system. This condition can be satisfied by the proposed Knowledge Map. Figure 5 shows a diagram of the process of knowledge acquisition from a construction project. The above process begins at the stage of process grouping for a specific project and ends at the stage of the compilation of project results and their assessments. The assessment results are used to record and implement Lessons Learned (generating changes to products and processes), thus applying acquired knowledge from the given construction project. The
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primary aim of the application of the acquired new knowledge is the improvement in the competitiveness in the construction market. Particularly important is the knowledge of the schedule and cost of the project. The proposed Knowledge Map enables adding information of the initially assumed and actual time requirement as well as the cost of each completed operation forming part of a given process. This compiled information enables the determination of the exact cost of construction (unit cost and total cost), including the actual indirect costs. This will allow for meaningful comparisons between predicted indirect costs quantities calculated as a percentage of direct costs for the assumed project conditions and the data and knowledge in regard to such costs obtained from company records created with the use of the Knowledge Map. Subsequently, the resulting information will allow to estimate costs and schedules more accurately for similar future projects (Yu and Skibniewski, 2010). Changes
Set of management processes
Construction project
Lessons Learned (innovations and their implementations)
Grouping of processes for project
Compilation of results and assessment of project
Figure 5. Schematic of knowledge acquisition from a construction project
The above model represents research in progress. The next stage of this ongoing research will focus on the methodology of assessing future projects with the use of knowledge maps, particularly in regard to accurate forecasting of project duration and cost.
5. SUMMARY
The proposed Knowledge Map is a computer-based implementation supporting a wide array of management processes in a construction company. All activities performed by company employees were presented in the form of processes. In order to identify the processes that occur in construction companies, a comprehensive survey of over 200 Polish construction firms was completed. Based on the survey, the most important company management
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processes were compiled. Subsequently, audits were conducted in the selected construction companies with the aim to identify the domains of knowledge which are significant in the management of a construction company and which should be included in the Knowledge Map. The following domains of knowledge for a construction company were identified: system and environment, assets and resources, processes, construction projects, documents, analyses and conclusions, and lessons learned.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Research described in this paper has been supported by a grant from the Republic of Polands National Centre for Scientific Research titled: Knowledge Management Systems for Construction Firms, grant no. 1251/B/T02/2011/40.
REFERENCES
Chung, B-Y, Skibniewski, M, Kwak, Y-H. (2009): "Developing ERP systems success model for the construction industry," ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 135(3), pp. 207216, doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2009)135:3(207) Dave, B. and Koskela, L., 2009. Collaborative Knowledge Management A construction case study. Automation in Construction, Elsevier, Vol. 18, No. 7, pp. 894902. El-Diraby, T. E., and Zhang, J., 2006. A semantic framework to support corporate memory management in building construction. Automation in Construction, Elsevier, Vol. 15, No. 4, pp. 504521. Gabrielaitis, L. and Bauys, R., 2006. Electronic Document Management in Building Design. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, Taylor & Francis, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 103108. Galant, V. and Perechuda, K., 2005. Methods and models of managing information and knowledge. Scientific Work No. 1086. Wyd. Akademii Ekonomicznej, Wrocaw (in Polish). Gattulli, V. and Chiaramonte, L., 2005. Condition Assessment by Visual Inspection for a Bridge Management System. Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, Wiley, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 95107, doi: 10.1111/j.1467 8667.2005.00379.x Gruszczyska-Malec, G. and Rutkowska, M.,2011. Effectiveness of knowledge management indicators and methods of measurement. Przegld Organizacji 1/2011, pp. 2023 (in Polish). Hoa, B. and Polak, A., 2011. Knowledge Map for a construction company. Przegld Budowlany 2011, No. 11, pp. 73 76 (in Polish). Jemielniak. D. and Komiski, A.K., 2012. Knowledge Management. Oficyna Wolters Kluwer Business, Warsaw (in Polish). Lin, Y. C., Wang, L. C. and Tserng, H. P., 2006. Enhancing knowledge exchange through web map-based knowledge management system in construction: Lessons learned in Taiwan. Automation in Construction, Elsevier, Vol. 15, No. 6, pp. 693705, doi: 10.1016/j.autcon.2005.09.006 Tatari, O., Castro-Lacouture, D., Skibniewski, M. (2008). Performance Evaluation of Construction Enterprise Resource Planning Systems, ASCE Journal of Management in Engineering, Vol. 24, No. 4, October, pp. 198206.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Tatari, O., Skibniewski, M. (2011). Empirical analysis of construction enterprise information systems: Assessing system integration, critical factors, and benefits, ASCE Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, Vol. 25, pp. 347 356. Tserng, H. P., Yin, S. Y..L. and Lee M.H., 2008. The use of knowledge mapping model in the Construction Industry. Construction Management and Economics. Taylor & Francis, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 209223. ISO 9001:2008. Quality management system: Requirements (in Polish). ISO 10006:2005. Quality management systems. Guidelines for quality in management in projects. (in Polish). Tserng, H. P. and Lin Y. C., 2004. Developing an activity-based knowledge management system for contractors. Automation in Construction, Elsevier, Vol. 13, No. 6, pp. 781802, doi: 10.1016/j.autcon.2004.05.003 Tserng, H. P., Yin S. Y. L., Skibniewski M. J. and Lee M.H., 2010. Developing an ARIS-house-based method from existing information systems to project-based enterprise resource planning for the general contractor. ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 136, No. 2, pp. 199209. doi: 10.1061 / (ASCE) CO.19437862.0000125. Tserng H.P., Yin S.Y.L. and Lee M.H., 2010. The use of knowledge mapping model in the Construction Industry. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management. Taylor & Francis, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 332334. Vandaie R., 2008. The role of organizational knowledge management in successful ERP Implementation Projects. Knowledge-Based Systems, Vol. 21, No. 8, pp. 920926. Wen Y.F., 2009. An Effectiveness measurement model for knowledge management. Knowledge-Based Systems, Vol. 22, No. 5, pp. 363367. Yang J-B., 2007. Developing a knowledge map for construction scheduling using a novel approach. Automation in Construction, Elsevier, Vol. 16, No. 6, pp. 806815. Yu, W-D, Skibniewski, M., 2010. Integrating neurofuzzy system with conceptual cost estimation to discover costrelated knowledge from residential construction projects, ASCE Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, Vol. 24, pp. 3544.
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A REVIEW OF TURKISH CONTRACTORS ICT APPROACHES

A. Tolga Ilter Project Management Center, Istanbul Technical University, iltert@itu.edu.tr Attila Dikbas Project Management Center, Istanbul Technical University, dikbas@itu.edu.tr
Abstract This study attempts to examine the differences in the use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) between the Turkish contracting firms that are listed as Top 225 International Contractors by Engineering News Record (ENR) according to their international revenues and other large contracting firms that are not on this list. For this purpose, 30 large scale Turkish general contracting firms, 15 being listed by the ENR, have been examined in terms of their ICT expenditures, technologies used, technologies that are planned to be used in the near future and the importance of these technologies for the firms. Findings are analysed by Mann Whitney U tests, where appropriate. Results show some remarkable differences between the top listed firms and other large scale contracting companies such as amount of investments, technologies regarded as important for the firm and intra-firm trainings provided for using new technologies. Finally, findings of the research are discussed in the contex of innovation, expecting to contribute international contracting firms evaluate their innovation approaches for their competitive advantage. Keywords: Turkish construction industry, construction innovation, ICT, ENR.
1. INTRODUCTION
Construction has long been considered as a labour-intensive activity depending on the craftsmanship passing through master to his apprentice using conventional materials and techniques for ages. Today, construction is a global market shared by giant enterprises many of them having several times more business volume internationally than they do in their home country and the competition between these multinational enterprises are beyond national borders. Although there are many variables from political influences to personal considerations of their managerial bodies, the competitive advantage of such large scale construction companies also depend on management capabilities, technical infrastructure and human resources investments towards increasing the quality of their services and fulfilling customer needs. Innovative solutions to technical problems and ways of doing business arise from the need for a continuous change to defeat rivals.
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Research and development (R&D), product, process, organizational innovation activities, drivers and barriers affecting innovation efforts, emphasis given to sources of information and knowledge networks, ICT investments are all considered as part of innovation efforts undertaken by construction companies (Ilter, 2011). ICT innovation refers to the introduction of new ICT initiatives to an organization. Many researchers like Egbu (2005) emphasize the importance of ICT to obtain and process knowledge and positive impact on construction innovation. Sarshar and Isikdag (2004) summarize the use of information technology in construction as enabler of integration, collaboration and knowledge management, new ways of procurement and site management and process improvement (Sarshar and Isikdag, 2004) Information Technology has enabled the globalization of the economy and competition, and has subsequently brought about large-scale changes in the industrial makeup of all the advanced industrial nations (Sun & Howard, 2004). Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) are of the most important factors boosting innovation and creativity in construction industry at least for the past two decades. ICT enables design firms to work in a more collaborative work environment with other stakeholders and reduces the time needed for drafting and details despite the increasing complexity of projects. On the other side, construction companies are using ICT to manage this ever increasing complexity and create the space they need to find creative solutions to fulfill their contracts. ICT enables process and organizational innovations that reduce time and cost as well as increasing the companys profit.
2. GIANTS LEAGUE : TOP INTERNATIONAL CONTRACTORS

One of the sources that annually publishes information about construction firms that work internationally is Engineering News Record (ENR) magazine. Besides many others lists, the magazine publishes a list of contracting companies based on their international revenue. The list called Top 225 International Contractors can be considered as the giants league of construction companies with a total international revenue of 383,8 billion US$ in year 2009. (ENR 2010). ENR 2010 data depending on the revenues of contractors made in year 2009 shows leading companies and the countries they are based. As for the total revenues, Peoples Republic of China is the leading country with 50.573,3 billion US$ with 54 contractors. In the ENR 2010 Top 225 International Contractors list, Turkey takes second place with 33 contractors and ninth place with a total revenue of 14,1 billion US$. Total amount of revenue made by this 33 ENR listed Turkish contractors come across the %3,7 of the total giants league revenue. This paper focuses on the ICT approaches of the large scale Turkish companies, trying to indicate the differences between the activities that form their ICT approaches and company profile and differences between ENR listed ones and other large scale Turkish contractors on this manner.
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3. RESEARCH METODOLOGY
A survey was carried out in order to obtain data about large scale construction contractors innovation approaches. The survey includes R&D attitude, product, process, organizational innovation activities, drivers and barriers affecting innovation efforts, emphasis given to sources of information and collaborations and ICT investments of contractors. In order to reveal the changes in the timeline, two different periods were questioned in the survey where appropriate. These time periods are 20042006 and 20072009. Only ICT related section and findings of this survey is discussed in this paper. The population included 33 Turkish contractors listed in ENR 2010, and the members of Turkish Contractors Association. Turkish Contractors Association is an independent, nonprofit organization and the business volume of its members encompasses nearly 90% of all international contracting work done so far by Turkish construction companies. The Association had 152 members due to date of research and 29 of the ENR listed contractors were also a member of the Association. Remaining 123 member of the Association were found relevant to compare and discuss with the ENR listed contractors. The survey was emailed to the 123 member of the Association. However, as the ENR listed contractors were only 33, business development managers or a similar managerial position were aimed personally in order to reach a decent number for reclamation. As a result, the number of valid responses for both ENR listed contractors and Turkish Contractors Association (TCA) member firms were 15 each. This number refers to a response rate of %48 for ENR listed companies and %12 for the other TCA members. Sample size is validated by Kirsh formula and found appropriate (Kirsh, 1965). Data from the completed questionnaire were analyzed using SPSS 15.0 software and non parametric tests are used because of the sample size. Graphics and tables were generated using Microsoft Excel.
4. ANALYSIS
Survey included some general questions about company structure and ICT specific questions like ICT expenditure, ICT applications and technical/professional software used, implications and importance of the applications and software. Additionally, existence of a written strategic plan and whether strategic management techniques are being used for implementing ICT, was also examined. Questions about the company structure show that %60 of the ENR listed firms are member of a group of companies where it is %47 for the TCA members. For the year 2009, ENR listed firms average revenue is 1.380 million US$ and number of personnel is 5217; while the same figures are 189 million US$ and 1023 personnel for TCA contractors respectively. The two periods examined show a significant difference among two contractor groups in revenue increase. Concerning the revenue change between years 2006 and 2009, ENR listed firms income was nearly doubled (%99,58), but the change for the TCA contractors was significantly below (%19,49). Average ICT expenditure of ENR contractors is 228,2K US$ and
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105,7K for other TCA members per annum. Most significant market for ENR listed contractors is former Soviet States (%87) where it is the domestic market, Turkey (%50) for the TCA members. Technology and strategy are, especially in this era of rapid technological developments, interrelated and several studies are known wherein technology induces the development of corporate strategy (Zegveld, 2006). Applications of information and communication technology (ICT) have, in general, influenced business strategies, organizational structures, and management processes in the construction industry (Barthorpe et. al., 2004). Although about two fifth of the contractors are using strategic management techniques for implementing ICT, ENR listed companies are well below the average in having a written strategic plan (%20). Percentages of contractors having a written strategic plan and firms using strategic management techniques for implementing ICT are shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Contractors having a written strategic plan and firms using strategic management techniques for implementing ICT
Computer Aided Design (CAD) software is the most common software used both by the ENR listed contractors and the TCA members. Total number of firms that use CAD software (%100). After CAD, most widely used software applications used by ENR listed contractors are Project Planning/Management (PPM) applications (%93), Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) applications (%87), Geographical Information System (GIS) applications (%47). Figures for the TCA members are %73, %40 and %53 respectively and especially the difference for ERP, Customer Relations Management (CRM) and Building Information Modeling (BIM) are significant between the two contractor groups. Percentage of the technical/professional software applications used by the two groups of contractors are shown in Figure 2.
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Figure 2: Percentage of technical/professional software applications used
The questionnaire also examined the companies which do not use a specific software application currently, whether they have a plan using it in the next two years. Response to this question is shown on Figure 3. Fifty percent of the ENR listed contractors who do not use ERP applications are planning to implement ERP software in the following 2 years time. For the TCA members this rate is %44. The only other application ENR listed contractors indicated was Supply Chain Management (SCM). Percentage of the ENR listed contractors that plan to use SCM in the next two years is %10. On the other hand TCA member contractors indicated the will to implement SCM (%40), CRM (%40), BIM (%30) and GIS (%30). None of the ENR listed and TCA member contractors indicated plans for PPM software applications.
Figure 3: Software applications that contractors plan to implement in the next two years
The survey also inquired the importance of the software applications for the contractors using them. Likert scale assessment were used and attitudes were scored with 5 for very high, 4 for high, 3 for neutral, 2 for low and 1 for very low. Response of the
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contractors is shown in Figure 4. CAD applications were assessed with highest importance level with an average of 4,67 for ENR listed firms and %4,53 for TCA member firms. PPM applications have the second highest average by the rate of 4,33 for ENR listed firms and 3,93 for TCA members. ERP applications share the second highest level with PPM applications for ENR listed firms with a rate of 4,33. While TCA member contractors seem to evaluate GIS, CRM, SCM and BIM applications over the average, ENR listed firms have evaluated all applications other than CAD, PPM and ERP as below the average (neutral) rate: 3. Lowest rated application is BIM for all the contractors (Figure 4).
Figure 4: Importance level assessments of software applications
Percentage of contractors using web integrated cameras to capture and control their site work is %87 for ENR listed firms and %73 for TCA members. The survey also inquired the presence of intra-firm trainings for ICT applications. Responses show that %87 of ENR listed contractors and %67 of TCA members are applying intra-firm trainings for software applications like CAD, ERP and CRM. A large percentage of the respondents (%80) stated that new employees were hired for the positions that require use of ICT in 2009. Among them, the percentage of the companies which had difficulties about finding trained personnel was only %13. According to the acquired survey results, tests of hypothesis were conducted to find possible statistical significances between ENR listed firms and other TCA member. Due to the sample size significance level was undertaken at two different levels, =0,05 and =0,1. First null hypothesis was formulated as H0: There is no statistically significant difference among the ENR listed and the TCA member contractors according to their ICT expenditures. Results of the performed test of first hypothesis are presented on Table 1.
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Total ICT expenditure Mann-Whitney U Wilcoxon W Z Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 35,500 113,500 1,880 ,060
Table 1: Contractor group x total ICT expenditure Mann Whitney U test
Test result shows Mann Whitney U =35,500 and asymptotic significance value p =0,060. (Table 1). At the significance level =0,05, value p> 0,05 and H0 hypothesis is accepted. But at the =0,1 level, as p< 0,1 H0 hypothesis is rejected. As a result, at =0,1 level ENR listed firms and TCA member other contractors show a statistically significant difference according to their ICT expenditures. ENR listed contractors have more ICT expenditures than TCA member other firms. Second hypothesis was stating that there was significance between contractor groups about the importance they give to different software applications. The null hypothesis was formulated as H0: There is no statistically significant difference among the ENR listed and the TCA member contractors according to the importance they give to different software applications. Results of the performed test of second hypothesis are presented on Table 2. Mann Whitney U test shows significance for the CRM, BIM, GIS applications at =0,05 level between the two contractor groups. Also at =0,1 level there is significance for the ERP application (Table 2).
ERP Mann-Whitney U Wilcoxon W Z Asymp. Sig. (2tailed) 71,000
CRM 59,000
SCM 87,000
BIM 63,000
CAD 93,500
GIS 66,000
PPM 91,000 211,000 1,037 ,300
191,000 179,000 207,000 183,000 213,500 186,000 1,854 ,064 2,412 ,016 1,116 ,264 2,213 ,027 ,935 ,350 1,987 ,047
Table 2: Contractor group x Importance of the software apps Mann Whitney U test
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As a result, for the both levels of analysis there is a statistically significant difference between the contractor groups about the importance they give to different software applications. While ERP application is more important for ENR listed contractors, CRM, SCM and GIS applications are more important for TCA member other contractors.
5. CONCLUSIONS
ICT approaches of large scale international contractors with Turkish origin are examined with a survey, looking for differences between ENR listed and TCA member other companies. Findings does not show significant differences about the ICT used. However, ICT expenditures of ENR listed contractors average ICT expenditure is more than two times of the TCA member other contractors. While ERP application is more important for ENR listed contractors, CRM, SCM and GIS applications are more important for TCA member other contractors according to the analysis results. CAD, PPM and ERP come out as the most important software applications for the contractors. Usage rates are %100 for CAD, %83 for PPM and about %63 for ERP and the figures of the contractors planning to implement new applications give a hint about the ERP usage to reach the rate of PPM application as %47 of the late comers are planning to use PPM. However none of the contractors indicated about implementing PPM in the next two years if they do not currently use any. ENR listed firms have a higher rate of intra-firm trainings for ICT usage. Responses from the TCA member contractors to implement new ICT applications in the next two years can be regarded as efforts to fill the ICT gap towards reaching the level of ENR listed firms. ENR listed contractors invest much more on ICT than the TCA member other firms and firms have a higher rate of intra-firm trainings for ICT usage. High percentage of intra-firm training activities and low percentage of difficulties in finding trained employees indicates a progress in ICT education following the previous research of Sarshar and Isikdag (2004) pointing out the critical level of ICT education in Turkish construction industry. However ENR listed firms do have lower rates about having a written strategic plan document and using strategic management techniques for ICT implementation. Although technology has a strong influence on business strategies and management processes, ENR listed firms seem to lag behind their TCA member rivals in strategic management techniques. As one of the most compelling findings of this research, contractors rated BIM as the least important ICT application which can be considered as the lack of strategy and foresight over the possibilities of knowledge management and integration achieved by information technology.
REFERENCES
Barthorpe, S., Chien, H. J., Shih, J. K. C., 2004. The current state of ICT usage by UK construction companies. International Journal of Electronic Business. Vol. 14/2003, p:358371.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Egbu, C.O., 2000. The role of information technology in strategic knowledge management and its potential in construction industry. Proceedings of a UK national Conference on Objects and Integration for Architecture, Engineering and Construction, BRE, Watford, UK. 1314 March. ENR 2010. Top 225 International Contractors. Engineering News Record August 30, 2010, p:4464. Ilter, A. T., 2011. Evaluation of Contracting Firms Innovation Approaches. Unprinted PhD thesis, Istanbul Technical University. Kirsh, L., 1965. Survey sampling. John Wiley and Sons press, New York. Sarshar, M., Isikdag, U., 2004. A survey of ICT use in the Turkish construction industry. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, Vol. 11 Iss: 4 pp. 238 247 Sun, M. and Howard, R., 2004. Understanding IT in Construction. Spoon press, London. Zegveld, M. A., 2006. Corporate Strategy and Technology. In Managing Technology and Innovation, ed. by Verburg, R.M., Ortt, J. R., Dicke, W. M., p: 209226. Routledge, New York.
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A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF LAYOUT PLANNING PROBLEMS

Shabtai Isaac Structural Engineering Department, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Israel, isaacsh@bgu.ac.il Mohsen Andayesh Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary, Canada, mandayes@ucalgary.ca Farnaz Sadeghpour Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary, Canada, farnaz@ucalgary.ca
Abstract This study compares, in a single framework, a number of different layout planning problems that have until now been addressed separately. The possibility of using a similar approach to find an optimum solution for the planning of construction site layouts, facility layouts, facility locations and plant layouts is assessed. Keywords: Layout Planning, Optimization, Construction Site Management.
1. INTRODUCTION
Layout planning problems deal with the identification of the optimum location of a number of objects in a predefined area. Planned workflows between these objects, and/or between them and other objects that have predefined locations in the same area, generally determine the outcome of the planning processes. The solution of layout planning problems has been a recurring issue in numerous contexts, such as construction site management, building design, the location of facilities in urban planning and the design of manufacturing plants. These different types of layout planning problems have until now been addressed separately in research, and different solutions were consequently developed for them. Solutions include the application of different techniques and methods such as genetic algorithms, knowledgebased systems, geometric reasoning, and meta-heuristic methods, amongst others (Andayesh and Sadeghpour 2011). Surveys of the models and algorithms that have been developed can be found in Farahani and Hekmatfar (2009), Liggett (2000), and McKendall et al. (2006). There are indeed differences that distinguish various types of layout planning problems from one other. For example, the dynamic nature of some of the problems has to be taken into account in their solutions. However, the different planning processes all have similar objective functions: the minimization of flow costs between the objects in the
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plan, and the maximization of some measure of closeness ratings. The hypothesis of this study is, therefore, that there is some degree of similarity between the problems, a similarity that might be revealed through a comparative study. The objective of this study is to provide a framework for such a comparative study. The analysis of the currently disconnected problems in one framework can allow their systematic comparison, which may in turn provide an opportunity for future knowledge transfer in the development of new solutions. This study compares four different layout planning problems: Construction site layout planning Facility layout planning Facility location planning Plant layout planning
As a basis for their comparison, the main properties of the layout planning problems are identified. The feasibility of applying a similar approach to find an optimum solution for the different problems is then assessed. To this end, an attempt is made to solve one example of each problem using the same model, which was originally developed for construction site layout planning. Although most of the examples that are used in this study are from the construction industry, the problems that are addressed occur in other research areas as well, such as manufacturing and urban planning.
2. TYPES OF LAYOUT PLANNING PROBLEMS

This section provides a description of each of the four different types of layout problems that are compared: 1. Construction site layout planning determines the optimum location of objects on the construction site, in order to minimize travel distances and maximize safety. Construction site objects include temporary facilities (e.g. batch plant), major equipment (e.g. tower crane), material storage areas (e.g. gravel storage), and working areas (e.g. rebar cutting area), all of which support the construction activities on the site (Sadeghpour et al. 2006). Some of these objects should be located close to each other, in order to minimize the costs associated with the workflows between them. On the other hand, safety related issues may occur when other objects are located too close to each other. Developing layouts that are optimized for the entire duration of the construction project, and that reflect changes in the construction activities as the project progresses, is referred to as dynamic site layout planning. 2. Facility layout planning deals with the assignment of physical space for activity centers in a facility. A facility may consist of a group of buildings, a single building, or a particular floor of a building (Liggett 2000). Activity centers may consist, for example, of a workgroup that requires an office, a production center that requires a workshop or a commercial activity that
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needs a store. A facility layout problem can surface in the design of a new building, or in the reassignment of space in an existing building. During the design phase of a new building, facility layout planning can be used to test alternative options for the configuration of the building and the allocation of space within it. In an existing building, layout planning can be used for on-going space management, as activities in the building change, and increase or decrease in size. 3. Facility location planning locates a set of facilities (resources) in a given area to minimize the cost of satisfying some set of demands (of the customers) with respect to some set of constraints (Farahani and Hekmatfar 2009). There are differences between facility location and facility layout problems: the facilities in location problems are small relative to the areas in which they are sited, and some interaction among facilities may occur, but it is of relatively minor importance. In layout problems, the activity centers to be located in the facility are large relative to the space in which they are positioned, and the interaction among them is common. Facility location models are used in a variety of applications, such as locating warehouses within a supply chain to minimize the average time to market, locating noxious material to maximize their distances from the public, locating railroad stations to minimize the unpredictability of delivery schedules, or locating automatic teller machines to serve bank customers better. 4. Plant layout planning determines the optimum location of a set of departments or machines on the workshop floor of a manufacturing plant (McKendall et al. 2006). Certain machines need to be physically close to each other. Often, one cannot satisfy these needs by placing all the machines next to each other, and one has to decide which adjacencies are the most favorable. An efficient plant layout results in well-coordinated workflows between the machines, avoids the accumulation of work-in-process inventories and reduces material handling costs. A machine layout problem is different from other layout problems in that there is an additional constraint on a machine's orientation in either a horizontal or a vertical position. When material flows between departments change during the planning horizon, the problem becomes a dynamic plant layout problem. The dynamic problem involves the planning of a series of layouts over the planning horizon, through relocations of the machines when needed.
3. THE MAIN PROPERTIES OF THE LAYOUT PLANNING PROBLEMS

In order to allow a systematic comparison between the layout planning problems, their main properties were analyzed. A number of differences were identified between some of the problems, and their properties were accordingly divided into four main categories. These included the workflows between objects in the layout, the types of objects, the area for which the layout is planned, and dynamic aspects of the layout planning.
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3.1. Workflows between objects The driving force in construction site layout planning is the workflows that exist between objects that are to be located on the site and the building under construction. Therefore, the location of these objects depends mainly on the predetermined location of the building and the workflows that are part of the planned construction activities. The location of these objects sometimes also depends, to a lesser degree, on the relationships between the objects themselves either positive relationships that require proximity (e.g. between working areas for rebar cutting and for pre-casting elements), or negative relationships that require distance (e.g. between a welding shop and a storage area for flammable material). Facility layout planning problems are quite similar to construction site layout problems. However, a distinction should be made between the planning of a new layout for an existing facility, and the planning of a layout for a newly designed facility. In the first case, as in construction site layout planning, the driving force is the workflows that exist between new objects (i.e. activity centers) that are to be added to the facility, and other objects that already exist on the site. In new designs, the main factor that has to be taken into account is the expected workflows between all the planned activity centers in the facility. The driving force in facility location planning is the expected workflows between demand centers with predetermined locations, and the facilities that are to be located. Plant layout planning requires determining the location of different objects according to the workflows between them. As will be explained in section 3.4, the driving force in these problems is often their dynamic aspects, due to changes in the workflows over time.
3.2. Object types The objects in construction site layout and facility layout planning (both those that are to be located in the layout and those with predetermined locations) are of a wide variety of types, and have different properties that must be taken into account. Facility location planning differs from the previous two problems in that the objects in the layout are divided into two distinct groups facilities and demand centers. While both the demand centers and the facilities may differ in size, they are usually of the same type (e.g. all the demand centers are population centers and all the facilities offer the same type of service). The objects in plant layouts are departments or machines of different types. There is often a constraint on an object's orientation in either a horizontal or a vertical position.
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3.3. Planning area Construction site layouts and facility layouts are often not dense, with some space left between objects. However, some sites in urban areas may be very dense, and offer only a limited number of alternative locations for the objects. In such cases, it is more practical to search for the optimum assignment of objects to available locations, instead of searching for the optimum location of objects in the continuous space of the site. In other words, severely constrained urban sites are space allocation problems rather than object location problems, and are therefore not addressed in this study. The layouts in facility location planning problems are not dense, and the facilities are small relative to the areas in which they are sited. Plant layouts, on the other hand, are usually very dense, and the objects in these layouts are located as close as possible to each other.
3.4. Dynamic aspects The workflows in a construction site layout may change during the project, according to the changes in the planned construction activities. This requires some objects to be added to the layout at some point in time, and other objects to be taken out. In some cases, the possibility of relocating facilities can be considered. While in reality the activity centers in a facility have a limited lifetime, this is rarely taken into account in facility layout planning, and the dynamic aspects of this problem are usually ignored. The workflows between the facilities and the demand centers in facility location planning may change over time, and these problems therefore sometimes have a dynamic aspect that has to be taken into account. However, the facilities usually cannot be relocated. The problem therefore becomes dynamic when the facilities are planned to be added sequentially to the layout, in response to increasing workflows. Changes in the products that are manufactured lead to changes in the workflows between objects in plant layouts. This requires numerous relocations of these objects. The need to find optimal layouts for each time interval, while taking into consideration both material handling costs and object relocation costs, is the driving force in most plant layout problems. The objects are usually assumed to exist in the layout for the entire planned duration. The main properties of the different layout planning problems are summarized in Table 1.
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Property The location of objects depends on their workflows with other objects with predetermined locations Workflows between the objects that have to be located determine their location Different types of objects have to be located The planned layout is dense Changes in workflows are considered Objects can be relocated Some objects exist in the layout for a limited time
Construction site layout Y S Y S Y S Y
Facility layout S S Y S N N N
Facility location Y N N N S N S
Plant layout N Y Y Y Y Y N
Y: Yes; N: No; S: Sometimes

Table 1: Properties of different layout planning problems
4. THE FEASIBILITY OF APPLYING A SIMILAR APPROACH TO SOLVE THE DIFFERENT PROBLEMS

In order to assess the feasibility of applying a similar approach to find an optimum solution for the different problems, an attempt was made to solve a case example of each problem, using a single method. The method that was used in this study was a construction site layout model that was previously developed by the authors (Andayesh and Sadeghpour 2011). The model aims to minimize the total cost of moving resources on the site. This cost is a function of the workflows and distances between objects, which can be written as:
Objective function =
Wd
ij
ij
(Eq.1)
where Wij reflects the closeness weight between facilities i and j, and dij represents the distance between object i and j. The closeness weights can be defined based on the actual cost of the workflow between two objects. Thus, a relatively large closeness weight indicates a significant workflow cost between objects and accordingly, these should be close to one another in order to minimize the objective function. The construction site layout model represents the site layout as a physical system in which the objects are represented by particles and the relationships between objects (i.e. how close or how far they should be from each other) are represented by the internal forces between particles (Andayesh and Sadeghpour 2011). The total potential energy in a system of particles is presented as:
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PE =
Fd
ij
ij
(Eq.2)
where Fij represents the force between particles i and j, and dij shows the distance between the two particles. The potential energy of the system of particles (Eq. 2) reflects the objective function of the site layout (Eq. 1). When searching for their optimum locations on the site, objects (particles) move due to their closeness weights (internal forces) with other objects and search for balance in their forces until they reach the equilibrium state, at which the objective function (potential energy) is at its minimum. The arrangement of objects on the site at the equilibrium state represents the optimum locations for objects in the site layout.
4.1. Construction site layout The case example of a construction site included three fixed objects with predetermined locations (FO) and five positionable objects that had to be located (PO). The properties and scheduled durations of these eight objects are summarized in Table 2, and the weights representing the relationships between these objects are presented in Table 3. This problem was solved using the model that has been developed for construction site layout planning. Object FO1 FO2 FO3 PO1 PO2 PO3 PO4 PO5 PO6 Type Fixed Fixed Fixed Positionable Positionable Positionable Positionable Positionable Positionable Radius (m) 25 30 35 20 15 18 14 10 15 Existing time (months) 110 110 29 110 24 58 48 410 38 Center Position (35,35) (200,165) (250,50)
Table 2: Properties of the construction site objects
Objects FO1 FO2 FO3 PO1 PO2 PO3 PO4 PO5 PO6
PO1 40 0 90
PO2 170 120 100 0
PO3 115 90 80 0 0
PO4 100 60 80 0 0 10
PO5 0 70 50 10 0 0 0
PO6 70 30 0 20 0 0 8 15
Table 3: Weights representing the relationships between objects
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The resultant optimum layout that was identified with the model is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1: The optimum layout that was identified with the model
4.2. Facility Layout A case example of a facility layout planning problem from literature (Love and Yerex 1976) was used was solved with the aforementioned construction site layout model. The objective of this problem was to find the optimum layout for a pre-stressed concrete products plant. Three existing facilities on the site have predetermined locations: a concrete batch plant (EF1), a steel manufacturing area (EF2), and a shipping checking and waiting area (EF3). Two new facilities need to be located on the site: a concrete casting area (NF1), and an assembly storage area (NF2). The coordinates of the locations of the existing facilities are (in feet): 1. Concrete batch plant (1000, 2000) 2. Steel manufacturing area (700,600) 3. Shipping checking and waiting area (1300,0) The expected daily material handling costs between the facilities (based on the frequency and cost of the material handling) can be found in Table 4. EF1 0.8 0 EF2 0.8 0.8 EF3 0 0.8 NF1 0 0 NF2 4.0 0
NF1 NF2
NF1 NF2
Table 4: Expected daily material handling costs between the facilities (per 100 feet)
In the published solution of this problem, the new facilities were allowed to be located within the existing facilities (Love and Yerex 1976). This could be due to some limitations of the model that was used. The construction site layout model was applied twice to solve this
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example (Figure 2). In the first application, the new facilities were allowed to be located inside existing facilities. The results that were obtained were identical to the published results. In the second application, no space overlap was allowed between objects. In this case, a new (more realistic) optimal solution was obtained.
Figure 2: Results of applying a site layout model to solve a facility layout planning problem
4.3. Facility Location The construction site layout model was also applied to a facility location problem, based on a facility location example from literature (Warszawski and Ishai 1982). In this example, an optimal plan is sought for the number, location and capacity of plants for the production of prefabricated concrete building elements. The plan is based on an evaluation of the expected demand for prefabricated elements. In the problem that was solved with the construction site layout model, the following parameters were defined, based on the parameters in the published example: An expected total demand of 240,000 m3 of precast concrete per year A total number of 25 demand centers, each with its specific coordinates. A uniform demand of 9,600 m3 of precast concrete per year was assumed for each center. The cost of material transportation is 25 ILS/m3/10 km Two types of plants were considered: a. Type Q2, with a production level of 34,200 m3/y, and an installation cost of 7,320,000 ILS b. Type Q4, with a production level of 68,400 m3/y, and an installation cost of 13,504,000 ILS The objective function of the model was to locate the plants so that both the material handling costs and the installation costs were minimized. Since the total number of required plants and their capacities were unknown, optimum layouts were identified for three different scenarios.
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In one scenario, all the plants were assumed to be of type Q2, and the total number of required plants was therefore assumed to be eight. The combined cost of material handling cost and plant installation, for the optimum layout, was found to be 67,281,638 ILS. In the second scenario, all the plants were assumed to be of type Q4, and the total number of required plants was therefore assumed to be four. Different supply strategies were tested, and the optimum layout for each strategy was identified (Table 5). Scenario 1 21 22 23 31 32 Plant type Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q2+Q4 Q2+Q4 Number of plants Eight plants supply the demand centers One plant supplies seven demand centers and three plants supply six centers each Two plants supply seven demand centers, one plant supplies six centers and one plant supplies five centers Three plants supplies seven demand centers and one plant supplies four centers Two plants of type Q4 and four plants of type Q2 Three plants of type Q4 and two plants of type Q2 Total cost for optimum layout (ILS) 67,281,638 66,916,000 66,896,000 67,106,000 67,086,000 66,657,000
Table 5: The cost for the optimum layout in different scenarios
In the third scenario, a combination of plants of type Q2 and Q4 was assumed. Two different combinations of plants were tested (Table 4). The last scenario, in which the optimum layout was identified for a combination of three plants of type Q4 and two plants of type Q2, was also found to have to lowest total cost of all the scenarios that were tested.
4.4. Plant Layout Changes in the workflows between objects in plant layouts require numerous relocations of these objects. Object relocation costs therefore have to be taken into account in most plant layout problems. Moreover, the plant layouts are much denser than the layouts in the other types of problems that have been addressed in this study. This requires a different approach to the modeling of the problem, and to its solution, than the approach used in the construction site layout model. Relocation costs could not be defined as a variable in this model. The required proximity of the objects in the plant layout prevented its solution using an approach that is based on the objects moving and searching for a balance in their internal forces until they reach an equilibrium state. The plant layout planning problem could therefore not be solved with the construction site layout model.
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5. CONCLUSIONS
This comparative study of layout planning problems revealed differences that can be related to four main factors: the workflows between objects in the layout, the types of objects, the area for which the layout is planned, and dynamic aspects of the layout planning. However, these problems also share many properties. All of them similarly deal with the identification of the optimum location of a number of objects in a predefined area, and have a similar objective function: the maximization of some measure of closeness ratings which reflects the flow costs between the objects in the plan. Moreover, of the four different problems that were compared in this study, three (construction site layout, facility layout and facility location planning) could be solved with the same model, which had originally been developed for construction site layout planning. The plant layout planning problem could not be solved with the same model, because object relocation costs have to be taken into account to solve this problem, and because plant layouts are dense. These issues could not be addressed with the construction site layout planning model. However, as was noted in section 3, some construction sites in urban areas may be very dense, and offer only a limited number of alternative locations for the objects. Moreover, in some cases, the possibility of relocating objects in a construction site can be considered. Therefore, the possibility of using the same model to solve both construction site and plant layout problems cannot be ruled out. The similarities that have been identified between the currently disconnected problems indicate that there may be opportunities for future knowledge transfer in the development of new solutions for these problems.
REFERENCES
Andayesh M. and Sadeghpour, F., 2011. Minimum Potential Energy for Site Layout Optimization. Proceedings, Int. Symposium on Automation and Robotics in Construction, IAARC, Seoul, Korea Farahani, R.Z., and Hekmatfar, M., 2009. Facility Location. Springer, Berlin. Liggett, R.S. (2000). Automated facilities layout: past, present and future. Automation in Construction, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 197215. Love, R.F., and Yerex, L., 1976. An Application of a Facilities Location Model in the Prestressed Concrete Industry. Interfaces, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 4549. McKendall, A.R., Shanga, J., and Kuppusamy, S., 2006. Simulated annealing heuristics for the dynamic facility layout problem. Computers & Operations Research, Vol. 33, No. 8, pp. 24312444 Sadeghpour, F., Moselhi, O., and Alkass, S., 2006. Computer-Aided Site Layout Planning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Vol. 132, No. 2, pp. 143151. Warszawski, A., and Ishai, E., 1982. Long Range Planning of Prefabrication Industry in a National Economy. Building and Environment, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 4754.
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REUSE OF RECYCLED AGGREGATES OF DEMOLITION BUILDING DEBRIS AS AN ASPHALT BINDER COURSE IN ROAD PAVEMENTS
Prof. Shafik M. Jendia (Islamic University of Gaza, Gaza, Palestine, Sjendia@mail.iugaza.edu.ps) Eng. Abed Al-hameed A. Qreaq'a (Islamic University of Gaza, Gaza, Palestine, eng-aboalhasan@yahoo.com)
Abstract This research provides a solution of an environmental problem in the Gaza Strip. It deals with the reuse of demolition building debris after crushing and screening as aggregate in the asphalt mixture of an asphalt binder course in road pavement. To investigate the applicability of using the recycled aggregates, several tests were conducted, these are: sieve analysis, specific gravity, absorption, abrasion, impact and crushing value. For comparison, the same tests were applied on conventional aggregates. Bitumen tests were also conducted such as penetration test, softening point, ductility and specific gravity. For proving the applicability of the asphalt mixture in a binder course, Marshal samples with both recycled and conventional aggregates were prepared according to the regional specifications. The results showed that it is possible to use the recycled aggregates in the mixture of asphalt binder course taking into account, it needs to increase the bitumen content (about 0.4%) more than the Asphalt binder course using the conventional aggregates (i.e. the optimum bitumen content using recycled aggregates is 5.7% and for conventional is 5.3%). However, the economic study in this research shows that using the recycled aggregate is feasible and has less cost than using the conventional one (approxemately 6%). Keywords: demolition building debris, recycled aggregates.
1. INTRODUCTION
The amount of debris resulted from the israeli aggressive attack on the Gaza Strip between 18 December 2008 and 27 January 2009 weighs ca. 1,500,000 tons (Ministry of Housing, 2009). During this attack, thousends of buildings and hundreds kilometers of roads in addition to other structures of agriculture, telecommunication, electricity etc. were damaged or destroyed (see Appendix). This rubble spreads in several regions of the Gaza Strip in the form of accumulated piles causing an environmental disaster. The building debris can be considered as a good source of construction materials that can be used alternatively for natural aggregate crushed rocks. Several studies in many contries have been conducted on the recycling of debris and its usage in aggregate production for cement concrete and road pavements (Ahmed, 1993,
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Chan et al., 2001, FHWA 2004, Kelly, 2003, Klee, 2009). In the Gaza Strip there were also some attempts to study general properties of building debris as aggregates in cement concrete mixtures and in road pavements as subbase and basecourse aggregates (Almassri, 2008, Jendia et al., 2011, Rustom et al., 2007, Zuhud, 2008). In this research, it will be shown for the first time in the Gaza Strip how to use the demolished building debris as an asphalt binder course in road pavements. This also means that the reuse of building debris in road constructions must meet technical, economic and environmental conditions based on international, regional or local specifications. It will here be proved how to reuse the building debris in road pavements according to technical and economic condition. Regarding the environmental conditions, an environmental assessment conducted by the United Nations Environment Program has shown that the building debris generated in the Gaza Strip can be reused decidedly (UNEP, 2009).
To fulfill the purpose of this research, the following methodology has been followed: 1. Studying the engineering properties of recycled aggregate (crushed building debris) by taking samples from the crushing station (figure 1) and conducting all the required laboratory tests according to the international Specifications. 2. Studying the engineering properties of conventional aggregates (crushed limestone) and conducting all the required laboratory tests according to the international Specifications. 3. Conducting all required Bitumen tests according to the international Specifications. 4. Studying and analyzing the engineering properties of asphalt binder course of both recycled and conventional aggregates according to the regional (Egyptian) specifications.
3. ENGINEERING PROPERTIES OF RECYCLED AGGREGATES

For studying the engineering properties of the crushed debris as aggregates of asphalt mixture, it is necessary to: 1. conduct the all required laboratory tests: Los Angeles abrasion test (ASTM C131), specific gravity (bulk, apparent, effective ASTM C127), water absorption for fine and coarse aggregates (ASTM C128), sieve analysis (ASTM C136) and others. All tests were carried out in the Material and Soil Laboratory of the Islamic University of Gaza. The main result tests are given in Tables (1 3). From Table (1), the crushed material has a maximum Los Angles value of (40%). Accordingly, its resistance to mechanical load (traffic) is acceptable. The crushed material is
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also non-plastic and its liquid limit value is equal 17% (not greater than 25%). The results of the absorption test reveal that the samples have higher absorption value (approximately 5.0%) compared to AASHTO specifications (not greater than 3%). This is because the crushed material samples include more impurities; plasters, tiles and blocks which increase the absorption capacity. Considering the relatively dry climate in Palestine and particularly in the Gaza Strip the achieved absorption value can be considered as normal. Additionally, the value of soundness (11.4%) indicates that the sample is high durable and can resist bad weather conditions of freezing and thawing. According to AASHTO, the max. limit for soundness is 18%. Additionally, Gradations of recycled and conventional aggregates are given in Figure (2), where the recycled aggregates due to the available crushed debris consist only of three fractions. Thus, natural sand was used in both asphalt mixtures made of recycled and conventional aggregates. From Figure (2), it is clear that the recycled aggregates (RM1, RM3, RF1) and the conventional aggregates (NM1, NM3, NF1) have approximately similar and comparable gradations. Further technical and commercial data for both types of aggregate are illustrated in Table (2). Regarding the used bitumen in the asphalt mixtures, it can be said the test results lie within the allowed values of the ASTM specifications (Table 3).
2. prepare Marshall specimens of asphalt mixtures in accordance with ASTM D 1559- 89, Resistance to Plastic Flow of Bituminous Mixtures Using Marshall Apparatus. The mechanical properties of the asphalt mixture were compared with allowed mechanical properties of the Egyptian specifications for asphalt binder course, because there is no precise and unified Palestinian standard for this field. In order to achieve a suitable aggregate gradation for the recycled asphalt mixture, the fractions of the recycled aggregates were blended carefully. For comparison issue the same effort was done for conventional aggregates. The percentages of aggregate blending for both types of aggregates are shown in Table (4). Further, The gradation curves of both types of aggregates compared with required gradation of asphalt binder course according to Egyptian specification are plotted in Figure (3). Based on the comparison in Figure (3), it can be said that the gradation curves of both aggregate types are nearly similar and lie mostly between the two standard limits of the Egyptian specification. The aggregates were mixed with bitumen at mixing temperature 150 oC. For each aggregate type, four different percentages of bitumen from 4.5% to 6% at 0.5% increments were added to the prepared aggregates. For each percentage of bitumen, four Marshall Specimens were prepared. The total Marshall specimens were 32 (16 for each type of aggregates recycled and conventional). Based on the specimen testing, the main relationships between bitumen content and the obtained values of bulk density, Marshall stability, flow and air void content, were determined. The optimum bitumen content of the mixture is the numerical average of the three values as it is described in the following equation: BC = (A + B + C) / 3, where
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BC = optimum bitumen content (%). A = bitumen content at maximum bulk density (%). B = bitumen content at maximum stability (%). C = bitumen content at minimum air void content (%). Based on the above given equation and the test results summarized in Tables (5), the obtained optimum bitumen content and other values of the asphalt mixture made of recycled aggregates lie within the allowed values of the specification. Accordingly, the optimum bitumen content is equal 5.7%. It is higher than the bitumen content of asphalt mixture made of conventional aggregates. This is because the recycled aggregate, as proved and explained above, has a relatively higher absorption value.
Figure (1): Crushing station of demolition building debris in the Gaza Strip.
Test Los Angeles Abrasion Liquid Limit Plasticity Index Specific gravity (SSD) coarse Specific gravity (SSD) fine Specific gravity (OD) coarse Specific gravity (OD) fine OMC Proctor MDD (g/cm3) Absorption % Coarse aggregate Absorption % Fine aggregate Soundness test Soil Classification
Results 40% 17% NP 2.35 g/cm3 2.52 g/cm3 2.23 g/cm3 2.42 g/cm3 9.5% 2.088 g/cm3 5.33% 4.38% 11.1% A-1-a
Table (1): Engineering properties of crushed building debris (Jendia et al., 2011).
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Recycled Aggregates
Conventional Aggregates
Figure (2): Gradations of recycled and conventional aggregates.
Aggregate Types (commercial expression in Palestine) Folia Adasia Simsimia Itrabiah Sand
Aggregate Types (Particle Size mm) 0/ 19.0 0/ 12.5 0/ 9.50 0/4.75 0/0.60
Symbol Recycled RM1 RM3 RF1 F2 * Conventional NM1 NM2 NM3 NF1
* natural sand , there is no recycled type.

Table (2): Types of aggregates.
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Test Penetration (0.1 mm) Ductility (cm) Softening point (oC) Density (g/cm3)
Results 100 130 47.5 1.016

Table (3): Test results of bitumen.
ASTM specification 85 100 Min 100 (45 52)
Aggregate type (commercial expression in Palestine) Fraction 1 (Folia) Fraction 2 Adasia Fraction 3 Simsimia Fraction 4 Itrabiah Fraction 5 Sand Sum.
Aggregate Types (Particle Size mm) 0/19 0/12.5 0/9.5 0/4.75 0/0.60
Suggested Percent for Final Aggregate Mix m.% Recycled Conventional 25 15 20 46 30 24 30 5 5 100 100
Table (4): Suggested percentages of aggregate blending for recycled and conventional aggregates.
Figure (2): Gradation curves of recycled and conventional aggregates compared with required gradation of asphalt binder course according to Egyptian specification.
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Property at optimum bitumen content Optimum Bitumen content (%) Density (gm/cm3) Stability (kg) Flow (mm) Air Voids (%)
Type of aggregate Recycled Conventional aggregate aggregate 5.70 2.125 1280 2.8 6.5 5.30 2.34 1400 5.0 3.9
Egyptian specification 4.5 6 272 2 4 38
Table (5): Properties of asphalt mixtures at the optimum bitumen content
4. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The conducted economic analysis deals with a comparison between the cost of a one ton (1000 kg) for asphalt mixture of binder course made of recycled aggregates (crushed building debris) and that made of conventional aggregates (crushed limestone) depending mainly on: the percentages of aggregate fractions used in both asphalt mixtures (Table 3), the optimum bitumen content of both asphalt mixtures (Table 5), costs of used bitumen and aggregates and others, like transport and paving etc.
Accordingly, the study showed that whereas one ton asphalt mixture for binder course made of recycled aggregates costs 95.80 US $, one ton asphalt binder course made of conventional aggregate costs 101.52 US $. This means there is a relatively big difference between the two cases; it comes to 5.72 US $.
5. CONCLUSIONS
In this research, a testing program was carried out to determine the technical properties of crushed material derived from destroyed buildings debris to investigate its adequacy to be used as aggregate in asphalt binder course by comparing testing results with regional or local specifications. The tested crushed material samples passed all tests and yielded good results. Further, the cost of asphalt mixture made of recycled aggregates is less than that made of conventional aggregates approximately 6%.
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6. RECOMENDATIONS
The Gaza Strip is poor in aggregates resources; therefore, it imports most of construction materials. Now a days, during the economical and political closure which has been imposed on the Gaza Strip, the construction material has been prevented from entering the region; thus, many road construction projects have not been implemented in the Gaza Strip. A locally available material such as recycled material has to be found in order to meet the shortage especially during border closures. As practical result of this research, it is recommended that: 1. Recycled aggregate (demolition building debris) be used in road pavements as asphalt mixture material for binder course. 2. Further research needs to be conducted to support the reuse of demolition debris in other asphalt pavement layers.
REFERENCES
ASTM (19962003). American Society for Testing and Materials. Annual book of ASTM standards, Construction. West Conshohocken. Ahmed, I. (1993). Use of west materials in highway construction. Purdue University, Department of Civil Engineering. West Lafayette Indiana. Al-Massri, F. (2008). Reuse management of construction and demolition waste in the Gaza strip. Master thesis, the Islamic University of Gaza. Gaza, Palestine. Chan, C., Hinrey, I., Fong, F., Winston. (2001). Development in Recycling of Construction and Demolition Materials. Hong Kong. web. 11 Oct 2009. http:// www.cedd.gov.hk/eng/services/recycling/doc/dev_recy_cd_e.pdf. Croney, D., Croney, P. (1998). Design and performance of road pavements. Third edition, McGraw- Hill FHWA (2004). Transportation Applications of Recycled Concrete Aggregate. Federal Highway Administration report. Web. 2 Dec 2009. http://www.rmrc.unh.edu/Research/tools/RCAREPORT.pdf. Jendia, S., Besaiso H. (2011). Recycling of Demolition Debris as Subbase and Base Course in Road Pavements in Palestine. Six International Conference on Construction in the 21st Century (CITC-VI) Construction Challenges in the New Decade July 57, 2011, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Kelly, T. (2003). Crushed cement concrete substitution for construction aggregates A material flow analysis , U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1177, Nov 2003. Web. 21 Dec. 2009, http://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/pub/circulars/c1177/index.html Klee, H. (2009). The Cement Sustainability Initiative. World business council for sustained Development. Web. 11 Oct 2009. http://www.wbcsd.org/DocRoot/.../CSI-RecyclingConcrete-FullReport.pdf. Ministry of Housing and Public Work-report (2009). Debris removal of building in Gaza governorates Government in the Gaza Strip, Palestine. PSI, (2004). palestinian standards institute. Gaza, Palestine. Rustom, R., Taha, S., Badamah, A., Barahmah, H. (2007). Properties of recycled aggregates in concrete and road pavement applications. The Islamic University Journal (Series of Natural Studies and Engineering) Vol.15, No. 2, pp 247264, 2007, ISSN 17266807, Gaza, Palestine.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary The Asphalt Institute, Shell Bitumen: Mix design methods for asphalt concrete and other hot-mix types. The Asphalt Institute, Maryland 1988, Manual series no. 2(M8-2). UNEP (2009). Environmental assessment of the Gaza Strip, following the escalation of hostilities in December 2008 January 2009, United Nations Environment Programme. Zuhud, A. (2008). Performance of recycled aggregate concrete . Master thesis, the Islamic University of Gaza. Gaza, Palestine.
Appendix
Examples for destroyed buildings.
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ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIAL RISKS OF GEOTHERMAL INVESTMENT, RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS

Tnde Jenei University of Debrecen, Faculty of Engineering Debrecen Hungary jeneit@eng.unideb.hu
Abstract The assessment of risks and risk management play a key role in the process of the implementation of investments. All investments, such as geothermal projects, can be divided into different stages. At each stage, with different probability, various risks may arise, which should be treated. The entire geothermal project implementation process can be divided into four stages: research, design, implementation, operation / deployment phase; starting at the point when the investors decide in which geothermal field they wish to invest, finishing at the point of utilizing the geothermal energy. In case of geothermal projects, the research phase is particularly important due to the fact that at this stage based on the collected data the decision is made whether the project is feasible or should be rejected. In addition, the cause of the occurrence of potential risks, in most cases, can mostly be recognized in this phase. Their effects are partly estimated. At each stage of the investment, the potential risks can be divided into three main groups: geological, technical and economic risks. The paper discusses in detail the risks the investors have to face in case of geothermal projects according to the timeline of the implementation process and gives an overview of the currently known risk management tools, with which the occurrence of various risks can be avoided or the probability of the occurrence could be reduced. Keywords: geothermal investments, assessment of risks, managing risk.
1. INTRODUCTION
More and more alternative energy sources are being exploited presently, this includes geothermal energy. Researchers turn their attention to assessing the risks of geothermal projects and handling these risks as geothermal investments are becoming widespread.
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Literature regarding project management and risk assessment dealing with geothermal projects is scarce. Available information and results are primarily accessible in the form of feasibility studies and research reports rather than papers and studies published in journals. Our literature review is also based on published research results. Combs (2006) provides a general summary of unique risk features occuring during the implementation of geothermal investments and technologies as well as giving an overview along with typically applied financial risk-management tools. The INTEGRATED FEASIBILITY STUDY (2005) and the RDL & PARTNER (2005) studies deal with the issue of utilising Hungarian thermal water for energy purposes in details. The INTEGRATED FEASIBILITY STUDY (2005) places the emphasis on steam wells. (Originally, steam wells are the barren wells of oil and mainly natural gas explorations, which produced thermal water instead of carbon hydrogen.) The study explains how existing steam wells in Hungary could be considered when establishing small capacity geothermal power plants suitable for producing electricity. The aim of RDL & PARTNER (2005) research is to develop an assessment matrix that would allow the assessment of relevant areas in Hungary for geothermal investments based on geological, technical, economic, legal, and administrative data and condition, as well as collecting and defining different problems related to investments which would hinder the implementation of a geothermal project. Geothermal power plant for producing electricity has not been built in Hungary yet. The implemented Hungarian geothermal energy projects were designed to provide direct heating. The number of such systems is very few compared to other energy production systems (hydro power plants, heat power plants), therefore sufficient amount of data is not provided for statistical evaluation. A research team has been established at the UD Faculty of Engineering for researching the use of geothermal energy in Hungary. Large-scale, comprehensive studies have been prepared within the framework of three projects dealing with geothermal research in recent years (primarily in the form of research reports). The focus was on optimising the application of geothermal heating systems within the framework of the OPTIEGO1 project, KALMR (2008). The GEOREN2 project provided an opportunity for the detailed integrated modelling assessment of geothermal system sustainability. The 5th work team of the project was involved in the modelling of economic processes regarding geothermal investments, the author was involved in overviewing tasks related to risk and risk handling as a member of this work team, SZCS et al. (2011). The aim of the HURO3 project is the assessment of a planned Romanian and Hungarian geothermal energy use opportunity, primarily from the aspect of energy provision term and efficiency.
OPTIGEO Optimization of geothermal heating system Project financed by EEA Norwegian Fund:108-1-F1 2008. 01.04. 2011.04.03. (Project manager: Kalmr F., KALMR 2008) 2 GEOREN Integrated modelling of geothermal system sustainability (in Hungarian) TMOP 4.2.2. 08/1/2008-0017. 2009. 07.01. 2011. 09. 30. (Project manager: Kalmr F., http://www.georen.unideb.hu/) 3 HURO Study of long-term and effective use of geothermal energy around Szkelyhd Ltavrtes. (EGSL) HURO/0801/006. 2010.01.04. 2011. 09. 30. (Project manager: Kalmr F.) http://www.egsl.unideb.hu/)
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Current paper primarily contains processed results of geothermal investments focusing on investment results and issues of risk and risk handling.
2. PHASES OF GEOTHERMAL INVESTMENTS

The main phases of a geothermal investment are the following: research phase, planning phase, implementation phase, operational phase.
These phases cover the entire investment and implementation process starting from the investors decision as to which region they wish to implement the geothermal investment in. Each phase is described below. Furthermore, during the breakdown of the investment into different phases, we kept in mind the comprehensive studies on geothermal investments which were prepared for the companies RDL & PARTNER (2005), COMBS (2006.) and ALTENER II. (2005). In each phase, we list the risks which may arise. These risks can be classified into two main groups: geological risks, economic risks. It is worth defining the technical risks in addition to the economic risks during operation. Accordingly, we also provide the definition of technical risk. Furthermore, attention must be drawn to the fact that a geological risk is also an economic risk. Even so, the risks independent from the economic system which was generated by nature should for practical or even necessary reasons be handled as independent, geological risks. By geological risks, we mean the risks which are physically connected to the existence, location and size of the reservoir, as well as the physical and chemical characteristics of the thermal water which can be extracted from the reservoir. Economic risks with special regard to the implementation of geothermal investments cover the risks connected to financing and the implementation of the investment. By technical risks, we mean the events related to the unexpected, premature malfunction and performance deterioration of technical equipment, networks and tools during the implementation of the investment.
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2.1. Research phase The first step of this phase is the preparation of the preliminary office study which includes a thorough review of the related bibliography based on the available information. These include the previous research projects and examinations carried out at the possible places of occurrence of geothermal energy, such as: regional geological and geophysical studies, findings of mineral and carbohydrate research, survey of the location of underground waters, geological risk assessments and photographs and satellite images of the given area.
The preliminary surface extraction permission of the geothermal resources is also obtained in this phase. The next step is the preparation of a feasibility study which includes the general exploration of the area, involving geological and geochemical assessments and research, as well as the analysis of the preliminary data. Furthermore, this step includes the overview of environmental and social issues, the identification of the access to local infrastructure, as well as the examination of the connection between the possible project areas, carriage roads and potential consumers. Later, during the preparation of a detailed geological study, various geophysical techniques are used to carry out the detailed geothermal research which will provide comprehensive measurement results of the given area, thereby making it possible to sketch out potential geothermal reservoirs and to determine the potential drilling targets. In this part of the research phase, the location and shoe depth of drilling(s) are accurately determined on the basis of geological studies and other available analyses and information. Further tasks include the planning of drillings and their related construction works, obtaining the necessary mining permissions with the implementation of extraction, planning the reinjection drilling, performing research drillings and the evaluation of drilling results. The reservoir is modelled in detail on the basis of the geological, hydrological and other research data that are characteristic of the geothermal resource area. Further pilot wells might need to be drilled in order to determine the reservoir as accurately as possible. The geothermal research measurements and the available drilling data provide suitable information in order to determine the temperature and extraction characteristics of the resource area the same way as the expected capacity of the geothermal power plant. Finishing and thoroughly documenting the research activity will provide sufficient data to form the basis of the summarising evaluation needed for the funding and implementation of a geothermal project.
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2.1.1. Geological and economic risks arising in the research phase Geological risks: In the research phase, geological risks can be classified around two aspects. The first group of risks is related to the extreme values of characteristics of the chemical composition of geothermal fluids. For example, the gas composition of the fluid contains gases which are dangerous for the environment, while its high acid and salt content could also pose a risk to both the environment and certain parts of the power plant. The other group of risks in this phase refers to the inadequate physical characteristics of the reservoir. For example, the temperature of the geothermal reservoir and the heat content of the geothermal fluids are lower than the expected level, or the permeability characteristics of the underground layers needed for the reinjection of fluids do not conform to the preliminary calculations. Economic risks: Mostly macroeconomic costs are considered in this phase. These are risks borne by foreign investors and they arise from the lack of macroeconomic stability of the target country. The profitability of investments is linked with the national economic processes. If there are unfavourable changes in the macroeconomic circumstances, e.g. declining economic growth, or the external and internal trade balances deteriorate, then investors will not be able to become independent from the processes which have unfavourable impacts. Based on the above, the main macroeconomic risks are surveyed below on the basis of the research of YESCOMBE (2008): Inflation. Currency exchange risk. Interest rate risks. Regulatory and administrational risk.
2.1.2. Risk management in the research phase Geological risks: Depending on whether the geothermal fluids are utilised directly or indirectly, the requirements related to the water quality in energy production and heat supply are different, similarly to water handling tasks. These latter are also affected by whether water is fed back into the underground layer after its use by reinjection or it is conducted into the living water stream. Since the energetic utilisation of thermal water can only be done by reinjection, the conduction into the living water stream will not be dealt with in this study. The following water handling tasks could become necessary depending on the chemical composition of the thermal water to be used, the method of use based on the preliminary analyses and the materials used in energetic systems: demethanisation, deoxygenation, reduction of the iron and manganese content and water softening. Before reinjection, chemicals need to be added and filtering and disinfection could be necessary so that the fluid to be reinjected will have almost the same quality as that of the water in the recipient medium.
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The ideal key characteristics of a geothermal well are the following: high temperature and good permeability, combined with the proper pressure, the geothermal fluid in the reservoir is not acidic and it does not cause the precipitation of a large quantity of mineral substance. Economic risks: According to YESCOMBE (2008), these risks do not directly endanger the project, but rather its environment. Inflation can be prevented if the investor signs long-term contracts which include income and expenditure changes in accordance with a previously determined schedule and if indexing with the expected annual inflation is also a part of these contracts. In the business plan, it is necessary to calculate the increase in operating expenses and income due to inflation. The risk of increasing loan interest rates cannot be prevented. It is necessary to include the increase in interest rates during the existence of the loan in the business plan. The risk of cost increases due to exchange rate changes can be avoided or reduced by reducing to a minimum the number of supplier contracts performed in a foreign currency and also the number of loan agreements. An objective should be to finance the activity in the local currency both in the course of implementation and operation. It is not possible to foresee the risks arising from the changes in state regulation; therefore, the possible method of risk management cannot be predicted either. It is also impossible to calculate the impact of these changes on the implementation costs and the subsequent operational expenses. However, the cost increase due to legislative changes should be covered mainly by the investor, even if the implementation of the investment is carried out by a principal contractor in the framework of a prime contract. Eventually, the investor has to decide whether the cost increase should be passed on to the end users or not.
2.2. Planning phase The planning of the power plant and the route of the necessary pipeline and mains is carried out during the planning phase. Depending on the results of the research drillings (i.e. actual temperature and extraction data), a decision can be made about the type of use. Only direct heat production or heat energy uses connected with electricity production are performed. Following this, the surface system, the power plant and the route of the connected mains and pipeline can be planned. In addition to the technical planning, the business plan is also put together. In this phase, we have data based on which it is possible to plan the expected income and expenditures; therefore, the expected project costs can be estimated and prognosticated. The aim of the business plan is to demonstrate the value for money of the project for loan applications and projects and also to convince external investors about their involvement.
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Each important and financially expressible criterion will be included in the business plan. Costs (e.g. investment expenses) and income (e.g. the price of marketable heat quantity of heat and its planned quantity) are determined.
2.2.1. The geological and economic risks arising in the planning phase Geological risks: No geological risks arise in the planning phase, since all geological data are evaluated in the research phase and the possible method of use is determined on the basis of this evaluation. Economic risks: In addition to the engineering design, the business plan will also be prepared in the planning phase. Accordingly, no economic risks will arise in this phase.
2.2.2. Risk management in the planning phase During the description of risks, we indicated that neither geological nor economic risks arise in this phase. The answers to geological risks are practically given in the research phase; these answers are the series of decisions made by the investor about whether there will be an investment and, if yes, what kind of investment it is going to be. Some of the economic risks are obviously involved in the launching and termination of the project and the others are managed during the preparation of the business plan.
2.3. Implementation phase Basically, the construction phase includes the building of the power plant and the electricity network, as well as the thermal water pipeline and the district heating. The various necessary authority (environmental protection, water) permissions are also obtained in this phase. Putting the power plant and the electricity network, as well as the thermal water pipeline and the district heating, into operation and running a pilot operation also belong to this phase.
2.3.1. Geological and economic risks arising in the implementation phase Geological risks: In this phase of the geothermal investment, geological risks may arise during the pilot operation. These risks mean that the difference in the values during the testing of the pilot wells and the reinjection wells are less favourable than expected. In order to determine the potential risks, the studies prepared by RDL & PARTNER (2005) and COMBS (2006.) were used. The following geological risks can be listed here:
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The temperature of the geothermal reservoir and the heat content of the geothermal fluids decrease. The permeability of the geothermal reservoir decreases. The gas, acid and salt content of the geothermal fluids increase and their gas composition changes. The performance of the reinjection wells of the geothermal fluids decrease. Economic risks: The economic risks which may arise during the implementation of an investment are listed below. It is important to point out these risks because their occurrence increases the implementation costs of the investment, as well as the duration of implementation. Failure of adhering to contractual prices. The results of the pilot operation are different from the expected performance. Implementation and date of putting the plant into operation. Compliance with performance guarantees. Size and enforceability of the contractual penalty.
2.3.2. Risk management in the implementation phase Geological risks: It is important to prepare for the occurrence of the risks listed above as there might be a need for a more expensive technical solution (e.g. building a de-aerator, prevention of limescale deposition using chemical methods, etc.). If the performance of the reinjection well declines, the first step is the revision of the functionality and the cleaning of the built elements. If the performance still declines, and if it is possible from the geological point of view, a pump has to be mounted on the reinjection well which could enhance the performance of the well. Economic risks: According to YESCOMBE (2008), the implementation of each project is done in accordance with a prime contract. Typically, the prime contract passes on all planning, construction and implementation risks to the primary contractor. Basically, the investor is handed over the turnkey geothermal project. In addition at least theoretically , the investor pays the contractor an extra fee for the assumed risks. These contract types work well in the technical sector and the building industry, but mainly in the sectors where the given technology is known and acknowledged. However, these contracts have special risks and the legal and other regulations have smaller significance than the potential profit. It is also self-explanatory that the profit in agreements which were signed in order to implement geothermal energy projects is high enough to cover the costs of the assumed risks of contractors. In a prime contract, the investor agrees with the primary contractor that the opened geothermal investment will be handed over to the investor(s) at the contracted price in accordance with the previously established schedule, the performance guarantee and penalty clause in order to perform on time. Entering into prime contracts is a widespread practice in the implementation of geothermal investments, as it was shown that risks in the development and building phase can be managed with this type of contract.
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According to TAKCS (2004), if the implementation of the investment is not done on the basis of a prime contract, the most modern investment organisation method is project-focused implementation management. In this case, an organisation is established for the given task by those involved in the investment. Only people who conform to technical requirements can be part of the project organisation and they provide the necessary material conditions and circumstances for the project implementation in order to successfully complete the project. Among others, the task of the project organisation is to provide the coordination of the activity of contractors, suppliers and manufacturers. Furthermore, the organisation manages the cooperation between the mentioned participants. They measure and verify the progress of the contractors against the work schedules. In accordance with the performance, they make a recommendation at the settling of invoices.
2.4. Operational phase By the operational phase, we mean the operation of the power plant and the electricity network, as well as the thermal water pipelines and the district heating. In the case of electricity production, the energy is usually fed into the power grid, while hot water for heating purposes and for domestic use is pumped to the consumers through pipelines. Operation mainly covers the continuous maintenance of heat exchangers, various containers and equipment. Furthermore, the periodical cleaning of the filters of the reinjection wells is also included here. In the case of the direct use of thermal water, the range of consumers can be continuously extended if needed. New institutional users or newly built family houses can also be connected to the system which can be regarded as a part of extension or operation or even as a new project.
2.4.1. Geological, technical and economic risks arising in the operational phase Geological risks: the risks listed here are practically the same as those listed under the pilot operation (see 2.3.1). Technical risks: The equipment and machines in certain parts of the power plant can break down or become unusable. Economic risks: Operational costs increase significantly. The delivery price decreases, causing the income to decrease, too. The government might change the requirements of obtaining the permissions needed for operation, as well as those of public authority consents.
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Furthermore, the impacts of these two larger risk groups are also listed here: Environmental protection related problems may arise which could result in the imposition of penalties or even closure of the power plant and termination of the service. The occurrence of disasters fire, flood and storms could damage the equipment of the power plant. The cost of the elimination of impacts caused by these risks can be significant.
2.4.2. Risk management in the operational phase Geological risks: The risk management techniques listed here are practically the same as those listed under the pilot operation (see 2.3.2). Technical risks: If the breakdown of tools or other equipment occurs due to improper performance, the primary contractor has to be obliged to correct the situation. If the cause of the problem is the improper use of technology, the operator has to be obliged to correct the situation or to cover the costs of repair. Economic risks: Various types of insurance are available for a significant part of operationrelated risks or their partial prevention. Currently, the following insurance forms are available to reduce financial risks: real estate and wealth insurance, insurance against damage through disaster and general liability insurance. These insurance forms do not cover the listed risks in all cases, but no one is able to tell which insurance companies will provide insurance offers in the future that can cover the arising risks to a greater extent. However, it is also important to know how much these new insurance forms will cost and how long their duration will be. In each case, it has to be examined how the given risk can be prevented or its impact reduced in the case of the operation-related economic risks that cannot be covered with the mentioned insurance forms. There are certain cases when there is no chance of reducing the consequence of the given risk in any form. An example is the government regulation and the legislative environment. If operational costs increase, it has to be examined why the expenses increase and costsaving solutions have to be looked for accordingly. The majority of operational costs arise on the basis of some contract as circumstances may require (e.g. maintenance and repair costs). The solution is that the operational costs have to be limited in the business each year, taking the operational income of the given year into consideration.
3. CONCLUSIONS
By showing the risks arising during the establishment of geothermal systems, attention was drawn to the following aspects. The specialities of risks and their management in the case of geothermal systems are as follows:
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Yes-no decisions are becoming more highlighted in the research phase. The usual economic risks are more common in the planning, implementation and operational phases. The number of geothermal systems established so far is rather low, and is actually insignificant in comparison with other energy producing systems (hydroelectric power plants, thermal power plants, nuclear power plants); therefore, the amount of available data is insufficient from the aspect of the probability determination by statistical analysis. Primarily, a decision tree is recommended to facilitate decision-making.
REFERENCES
Combs, J Dr.: Financial Risk Management Instruments for Geothermal Energy Development Projects (Submitted to UN Environment Program Division of Technology, Industry and Economics) 2006. Integrated Feasibility Study on Geothermal Power Utilization in Hungary Geothermal Power Project ALTENER II.4.1030/Z/02-045/2005. Jenei, T.: Risk assessment of geothermal systems, solutions for handling (in Hungarian). Quarterly report of the project HURO/0801/006. http://www.egsl.unideb.hu/ Gyrgyn Halsz Dr. Kozk, M Dr. Kalmr, F Dr. Buday, T: National and International Utilization Practices of Geothermal Energy in Heat and District Heating (in Hungarian). Research Study 161 p.(Prepared on behalf of Debreceni Hszolgltat Zrt.).Debrecen, 2009. Kalmr, F. Dr.: Alternative Energy Sources, 108-F-1 Optimization of Geothermal Heating Systems(in Hungarian) Project financed by EEA- Norwegian Fund Debrecen, 2008, 129 p. Rdl & Partner: Benchmark Study Geothermal Power and Heat Generation in Hungary 2005. Szcs, E. at al.: Integrated modelling of geothermal system sustainability (in Hungarian). Report by the 5th work team of the GEOREN project. DE, Debrecen, 2011. ISBN: 978-963-473-450-5 Takcs, .: Handbook of Investments in Construction (in Hungarian). TERC, Budapest 2004. Yescombe, E.R.: Principles of Project Finance (in Hungarian), PANEM Budapest 2008.
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APPLICABILITY OF INTEGRATED PROJECT DELIVERY SYSTEM TO PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN TURKEY

A. Kazaz Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey, akazaz@akdeniz.edu.tr B. Er Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey, bayramer@akdeniz.edu.tr S. Ulubeyli Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak, Turkey, serdar.ulubeyli@karaelmas.edu.tr
Abstract Construction projects consist of many different activities which are performed by main- or sub-contractors. This makes the coordination between these participants a difficult process. The lack of coordination in fulfilling project management services prevents the anticipated problems from detecting, and thus, construction projects cannot be completed within the projected budget, expected quality, and scheduled time. Integrated Project Delivery System (IPDS), developed as a solution to this problem, enables owner, designer, and contractor to bring together throughout the project, making them a single body. Although IPDS can be easily applied in most of private projects, its applicability to public projects seems to be difficult because of the fact that the competition during the bidding process is a must, besides equality. This article intended to demonstrate the contrary. Towards this aim, the related literature was first reviewed to determine the principles of IPDS. Then, Turkish Public Tender Law was investigated, and the overlapping and conflicting clauses were found out. Finally, the applicability of IPDS to public construction projects in Turkey was evaluated in detail. As a result, the modifications needed in the legislation were clearly revealed. Keywords: Integrated Project Delivery System, Project Coordination, Project Management, Public Projects, Turkish Public Tender Law.
1. INTRODUCTION
As a usual approach for project delivery, design-bid-build (DBB) has been preferred in public construction projects in Turkey to date. In this system, the aim is both to properly use financial resources of the community and to fairly apply the principle of equality among various proposals. However, in the bidding process, design and build are the phases requiring separate procedures. In other words, designer and constructer are different trading
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companies despite the fact that each of them has its own contractual agreement with owner, i.e., a public institution. In general, these contracts are executed basing on the order and control philosophy. Through contracts, owner gives orders to these two groups and controls whether the works are being performed according to provisions written in contracts at inception. Due to this approach, owner gives each group specific tasks and thus they have different objectives. The distinction between design and build phases prevents the constructing experience in jobsite from penetrating the design process. This makes unexpected future errors harder to determine in a timely manner, affecting the construction project negatively in terms of time, cost, and quality. Architectural drawings that are constituted in the design process generally show what will be built, but are not interested in how construction works will be carried out. It is impossible to design and prepare applicable projects without making decisions and estimations regarding construction technology, managerial methods, and resources such as labor, machines, and materials. On the other hand, the proposal preparation and evaluation processes in the DBB approach do not add any appreciable value to the project, but lead to time extensions. In addition, a realistic and detailed proposal cannot be constituted since (i) proposals in public construction projects have to be prepared in a relatively short time (40 days for open tendering) and (ii) contractors are likely preparing proposals for more than one project simultaneously. Integrated Project Delivery System (IPDS) can be called as a newly developed framework in order to remove drawbacks mentioned above. Here, the objective is to motivate owner, designer, and key contractors for a common target and thereby to provide that they execute construction activities throughout a project as a single body. This integration is easy and possible in private construction projects where there are no limitations in choosing designer and contractor. However, the integration seems impossible in public projects where the tendering process is obligatory. In this study, the applicability of IPDS to public construction projects in Turkey was investigated by examining legislation on public tendering, and legal modifications needed to apply IPDS were explained.
2. PRINCIPLES OF IPDS
The American Institute of Architects (AIA, 2007) defines IPDS as a project delivery method that integrates people, systems, business structures, and practices into a process that collaboratively harnesses the talents and insights of all participants to optimize project results, increase value to the owner, reduce waste, and maximize efficiency through all phases of design, fabrication, and construction. The integration of owner, architect, and contractors also requires sharing risk and reward for an effective implementation of the system. Another principle of IPDS is to use relational contracts which provide convenient atmosphere and task allocation among participants. This type of agreements is signed to combine project targets and key participants interests (Matthews and Howell, 2005).
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These three fundamental principles (that is, integrating all participants of a project, sharing risk and reward, and using relational contracts) are the main characteristics of IPDS (Kent and Gerber, 2010). Putting them into practice, suitable environment to apply some other important principles such as mutual respect and trust, collaborative innovation and decision making, early goal definition, intensified planning, open communication, appropriate technology, organization, and leadership can be constituted (AIA, 2007).
3. PRINCIPLES OF BIDDING IN TURKISH PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

In Turkey, Public Tender Law (PTL) has been used in the bidding process of public projects since 2002. Some modifications are occasionally made in the clauses of this law, when needed. The aim of PTL is to determine principles and procedures that have to be employed in public tenders (PTL, 2008). Clause 5 in PTL says that Public institutions shall be responsible in public tenders for providing transparency, competition, equality, reliability, confidentiality, control by public opinion, and productive use of resources and for meeting needs under suitable conditions and on time (PTL, 2008). According to PTL, public projects can be awarded to the lowest bidder in three different ways as follows (PTL, 2008): Open tendering, Tendering among specific bidders, and Bargaining. Open tendering is the most widely used method in which there is no limitation for giving a project proposal. To establish the absolute equality between bidders, it is inevitable to employ DBB in this way of bidding. In tendering among specific bidders, only bidders invited by public institution or client after a pre-qualification stage can give their proposals (PTL, 2008). This way is chosen when open tendering cannot be put into practice, for instance, in awarding a two kilometers long bridge where a very limited number of construction companies can have abilities to undertake such a project. Bargaining is applied when a fast bidding procedure is obligatory because of some unanticipated cases such as natural disasters or the last option for bidding. Considering these three ways of bidding, it is obvious that, both in tendering among specific bidders and in bargaining, contractors can be included in the design phase of a project. In this regard, early integration of project participants as the most fundamental principle of IPDS cannot be realized in open tendering.
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Open tendering Tendering among specific bidders Bargaining Early integration of key participants Shared risk and rewards Relational contracting
+ + +
+ + +
Table 1: Comparison of tendering methods
4. APPLICABILITY OF IPDS IN PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

Activities in a construction project can be divided into two main groups: Application based activities such as material procurement, formwork erecting, reinforcement fixing, concrete pouring, excavation works, etc., and Project management based activities such as design, planning, coordination, controlling, etc. Application based activities depend on the amount of tasks to be performed, and do not affect the value of project very much unless a modification is made on project. This means that the cost of materials to be used in these activities is fixed and that the optimum cost of these activities is determined by calculating the capacities of labor-force and construction machines. Project management based activities aim to complete a project in a specific time interval and in an estimated quality and budget standards. In this context, a network diagram is drawn using application based activities, and then, this network is managed. Considering this type of activities, some efforts such as cost plan, time schedule, capacity calculation, supply chain management, and risk management expose the real value of a project. In order to increase this value, all of these managerial activities should be applied throughout a project without experiencing an interruption. This is the most specific feature distinguishing IPDS from DBB. The fact that contractor and other key participants are included at project inception in IPDS leads to these managerial activities to continue without any interruption. In bidding public projects, low cost is the most significant criterion. However, evaluations made without considering managerial activities such as a detailed time and cost schedule and based solely on unit prices of application based activities reveal a contradiction for this approach. As a result, in open tendering, the project cost estimated considering a specific and limited budget is not determined by the related public institution, but by bidders. Rough proposals prepared in a limited time frame do not produce the real value of project. Moreover, in projects where design and build phases are clearly separated from each other and the pressure of low cost is dominant, both cost and time overruns are frequently encountered. Hence, despite the fact that DBB is in harmony with the principle of equality in
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competition among bidders, financial resources of the community cannot be used properly. This is because publicly financed projects cost more than their optimum values and are presented to public services later than their estimated times. Although the applicability of IPDS to open tendering is difficult as depicted in the previous section of this paper, this can be partly handled by using some clauses in PTL and offering some new provisions. In this context, project activities should be separated as did above and the results of managerial activities should be added to technical specifications. Clause 12 in PTL says that Although administrative and technical specifications that explain project characteristics shall be prepared by the related public institution, they can be prepared by means of outsourcing if necessary (PTL, 2008). In addition, both design competition cited by Clause 23 in PTL and consultancy services cited by Clause 48 in PTL make the employment of technical outsources possible (PTL, 2008). Especially engineering and architectural design services, design check, construction inspection, construction supervision, and preparation of technical construction specification should be added to the scope of consultancy services, which will separate managerial activities from application-based activities and thus facilitate the applicability of IPDS. Consequently, since these services are the tasks of project management, a key team will be formed by means of the application of clauses mentioned above and can carry out the task of management by penetrating the project from start to end. The success of a project depends on how well the results of the design phase are transferred to the build phase. However, in the DBB process, the difference between these two phases makes this transfer very difficult. To remove this drawback, (i) labor and machine capacities obtained in the design phase, (ii) duration of tasks, (iii) management techniques, (iv) construction technology, and (v) detailed schedule should be added to technical specifications. By means of this newly developed technical specification, the related public institution can answer not only what will be performed but also how the project will be executed. Thus, bidders will not focus on cost only, understand the requirements of public institution better, and evaluate their own competencies to execute the project. Nevertheless, the main criterion in this newly developed approach should be the cost factor. On the other hand, the closest proposal to the cost calculated by the key team should be awarded in this approach, rather than the lowest proposal in the current approach.
5. CONCLUSION
Open tendering is the most frequently employed system in public tenders. It uses DBB as a project delivery system to guarantee transparency, competition, equality, and reliability, to meet the requirements on time with appropriate conditions, and to use resources efficiently. Since the experience collected in the build phase cannot be transferred to the design phase
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in this system, the absolute separation of design and build phases results in hardly feasible projects and thereby in both time and cost overruns. Compared with other project delivery systems, the most distinguishing characteristic of IPDS is to share risks and rewards between key project participants such as owner, main contractor, and architect, integrating them at project inception. Hence, cooperation between these participants will be increased and they will focus on not only their own tasks but also those of others to raise the value of project. Furthermore, IPDS integrates design and build phases and causes both the experience accumulated in the build phase to transfer to the design phase and an uninterrupted managerial approach to apply throughout the project. In this study, the applicability of this newly developed system to public construction tenders was investigated. Both in tendering among specific bidders and in bargaining, related public institution as an owner can theoretically commission the principal contractor at project inception because it performs a pre-qualification process in awarding the project. This results in early integration of project participants as the most fundamental principle of IPDS. However, in open tendering, main contractor cannot be included in the design phase because of the fact that the awarding process is carried out after the design phase. Moreover, this causes some design phase activities such as resource leveling and scheduling to be fulfilled by main contractor barely after awarding the contract. On the other hand, Clauses 12, 23, and 48 in PTL enable both a consultant to be hired throughout the project for managerial activities and a key team to be constituted. Consequently, a project should be awarded just by adding some results of the design phase to the technical specification, which leads to a good application of IPDS.
REFERENCES
The American Institute of Architects (AIA), 2007, Integrated Project Delivery: A Guide. The American Institute of Architects, Washington. Kent, D. C. and Gerber, B. B., 2010, Understanding Construction Industry Experience and Attitudes Toward Integrated Project Delivery. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 136, No.8, pp. 815825. Matthews, O. and Howell G. A., 2005, Integrated Project Delivery An Example Of Relational Contracting. Lean Construction Journal, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 4661. Public Tender Law (PTL), 2008, No of Law: 4734. Date/No of Publication in Official Gazette: 01.22.2002 / 24648.
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CURRENT TRENDS IN GREEN CONSTRUCTION POLICIES AND IMPLICATIONS IN KOREA

Jae Hee Kim, You Gyeong Jo, Min Ji Kim Graduate Researcher, Graduate School of Engineering, Department of Architecture, Sejong University, Seoul, Korea Han Soo Kim Professor (Corresponding Author), Department of Architecture, Sejong University, Seoul, Korea, hskim@sejong.ac.kr
Abstract Green growth becomes a buzz word in the construction industry in Korea as in other parts of the world. Green growth can be defined as a growth based on the harmonious integration of the environment and economy and society for sustainable development. Recently, the Korean government announced the national strategy for green growth and encourages government bodies and industries including the construction industry to achieve green targets. As a consequence, the construction industry faces new challenges to keep up with green agenda. The objective of the paper is to analyze key aspects of green construction polices and to discuss major implications to the construction industry and construction firms in Korea. The paper reviews core policies of the Korean government as a policy framework. It also identifies and discusses major challenges and implications to the Korean construction industry and their current responses. Keywords: Green Construction, Green Growth, Green Policies and Implications, Korean Construction Industry.
1. INTRODUCTION
In the past few years, the global village has been continuously experiencing financial loss and personnel injury in many countries each year due to atmospheric changes, which cause earthquakes, torrential rain, heat waves, and cold waves. Accordingly, each country has had to recognize environmental problems and international agreements on the risk of environmental contamination through international conferences among different countries affecting everyone not only in the recent years, but also future societies. The Kyoto Protocol is specifically aimed at protecting the environment, concerning the expansion of its range through the economies of countries by commercializing carbon emission rates, instead of restricting environmental
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pollution only to environmental problems (Baek, J. B. 2005). This is in the same context as harmoniously developing the environment, the economy, and the society, and as a category that does not break away from the concepts of sustainability and green growth. Ultimately, green growth, and the green market are not new, however, they are existing markets that are rapidly emerging. This thesis will discuss the green construction market, and how policies are formed in Korea concerning green construction. This study aims to identify the future trends in Korean green construction policies and markets that will contribute to the understanding of Korean green construction policies and markets in overseas green construction corporations.
2. THE FLOW OF THE GLOBAL GREEN CONSTRUCTION MARKET TOWARD SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
2.1. Trends in the Green Construction Market toward Green Growth With imminent environmental contamination and resource depletion, the world is making an effort to discover new driving forces for growth and a better future, and the slogan for sustainable green growth is also appearing as a new paradigm (Hwang, D. H. 2011). Accordingly, the green construction market is also oriented toward the expansion of its market size, in correspondence to green growth. According to data provided by McGraw-Hill, the professional publishing corporation that has the most abundant construction data and construction-related information in the U.S., the green building market is expanding as the number of green building projects in America increases based on green growth from 2007 to 2013. It is expected that the total of 168 projects in 2007 will increase to a maximum total of 440 in 2013, which is approximately 2.6 times more (McGraw-Hill 2008). Of course, this is restricted only to the building sector, including newly constructed, and reconstructed commercial and residential buildings. If the construction of cities and dams are included, the size of the green construction market is expected to exceed the estimated value of the existing data.
2.2. Corporate Profit from Green Building Projects There is a need to apprehend the amount of the corporate profit of companies that conduct green construction projects, based on the growth of the green construction market. This is because projects or products that do not provide additional income to profit-making corporations, whose ultimate goal is to maximize profit, affect the survival of these corporations (Shim, G. Y. 2003). The research data conducted among design firms and contractors from 2007 to 2009, as provided by McGraw-Hill, show that the profit of corporations that participate in green projects may have lower income than corporations that do not participate in green projects, but they still continually grow. On the other hand, corporations that do not participate in green projects exhibit high fluctuation (McGraw-Hill 2011). The fact that the future green construction market can become a measure of profit and that it is a field that is rising into the limelight can be examined.
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2.3. Policies of Foreign Governments toward Green Construction Governments in many developed countries have also passed laws to make green building measures mandatory. The Energy Performance of Building Directive (EPBD) was legislation that requires the buildings in every European Union (EU) country to meet a minimum energy performance standard and to have energy certification by the year 2006 (EPBD 2009). In addition, the government at federal, state, and local levels and its organizations such as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, State of California, the City of Seattle, U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) and others not only require minimum green building standards, but also mandate that future buildings will be green (USGBC 2006a, b; Nobe & Dunbar 2004; DuBose et al. 2007). In Singapore, the Building Control (Environment Sustainability) Regulations were implemented on 15 April 2008 (BCA 2009). Many countries have begun adopting an active attitude in preparing for the emerging green construction market, and policies, as well as certification systems, are being prepared. This is marked as evidence of the positive recognition of the prospects and the feasibility of the green construction market.
2.4. Movement of Foreign Corporations toward Green Growth Various foreign corporations, like Balfour Beatty, Skanska, and Turner, are making an effort to provide visions and services toward green construction. CH2M HILL takes the protection of the environment seriously. Their environmental compliance program allows us to anticipate and mitigate risks to people and the environment. Through their Project Delivery System, the Health, Safety, Security, and Environment (HSSE) program, and other tools, they implement systematic environmental risk management practices that are integral to their project delivery systemand do so in a manner that adds value to their clients, firm, staff, and projects(CH2M HILL 2011). Also, AECOM is a leading worldwide environmental services provider to industrial and government clients delivering sustainable environmental solutions to meet compliance, business and operational needs(AECOM 2010). Balfour Beattys business model has certainly proved to be sustainable. The approach they have developed to create a sustainable Balfour Beatty by 2020 builds on these strengths and gives freedom to operate within an overarching framework(Balfour Beatty 2009). Thus, many companies have started publishing strategic planning and research reports, and trend data for sustainable green construction, and turning their attention toward the green construction market.
3. GREEN CONSTRUCTION IN KOREA

3.1. Research on the Top 10 Korean Corporations' Awareness of the Green Construction Market Green construction toward sustainable growth is in its early stages in Korea. Therefore, in order to comprehend the flow of Korean construction corporations in the growing stages of green construction, a research on the interest toward green construction and prospects of
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market growth and profit in the green construction business has been conducted on the top 10 contractors. Ten copies of the concerning survey has been distributed to each corporation with the goal of collecting a total of 100 copies. The research has been initiated so that the survey could be conducted by targeting those who were qualified to sufficiently answer the questions related to this particular subject. A total of 91 copies of the survey were reflected, excluding the 9 copies that did not reflect faithful answers among the 100 survey copies collected via E-mail, post, or direct collection. The survey has induced the respondents to provide answers with clear subjectivity by using the 6-point Likert scale. The degree of subjectivity of the responses was apprehended by calculating the value of the survey response data as an average value. The results of the awareness research on interest toward green construction and prospects of market growth currently felt by the top 10 Korean construction corporations, based on skill appraisement, are shown on <Figure 1>.
Figure 1. Future Perspective for Green Construction
All responses in the recognition of growth prospects of the future green construction market and interest toward current green construction corporations felt by the top 10 construction corporations, based on skill appraisement, displayed positive results, except for 1.1% (1 case) of negative responses. In < Figure 1>, the fact that the future direction of construction will be directed at green construction could be inferred, though anxiety toward the future growth of the green construction market could also be apprehended due to the negative response on the green construction market. However, this is an insignificant number, thus interest toward future green construction and the green construction market is seen to increase. The awareness on the current and future profitability of current green constructions felt by the top 10 Korean construction corporations is shown on <Figure 2>.
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Figure 2. Perceptions on Present and Future Profitability of Green Construction
The profit gained by construction corporations through green construction is weak, as negative responses related to the profit of current green construction reaches approximately 80%. However, positive responses in relation to future profitability passed approximately 46%, and showed expectation on green construction profitability. This result coincides with the positive responses in the growth prospects of the green construction market and increased interest in green construction as shown on <Figure 1>, thus, this result reveals that construction corporations do not conduct green construction with the expectation of significant profit in the current green construction market, but that they initiate green construction businesses with the expectation and viability of the future market. Korean construction corporations show anxiety toward the newly emerging green construction market. However, interest toward green construction and the green construction market is predicted to increase in the future. This result coincides with the profitability of green construction businesses, and the green construction market is seen to become highly active in the future.
3.2. Analysis of Political Trends and the Beginning of Korean Green Construction 3.2.1. The Movement of the Government toward Initiating Green Construction The realization of strategies and policies for the official initiation of green construction started with President Myung-Bak Lees concept of green growth during his congratulatory speech on the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of Korea on August 15, 2008. Green growth aims to achieve balanced growth with the economy by recognizing environmental contamination problems as urgent and necessary(Lee, B. N. 2009a). Since then, political goals, initiative strategies, and priority initiation tasks have been established and enforced based on Article 9 of the Basic Low Carbon Green Growth Law, and by the presidential advisory body of the green growth committee formed in 2009. The green growth national strategy and five-year plan has been presented in 2009, which has three strategies and 10 policy directions with the
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goal of entering into the top seven green international powers by 2020, and the top five by 2050(Presidential Committee on Green Growth 2009). The first strategy of adaptation to climate change and energy independence is composed of three national policies as a measure toward climate change, while the discussion of greenhouse gases and energy is its main content. The second strategy of the creation of new driving forces for growth is composed of four policies with the goal of constructing a virtuous cycle structure that allows accompanied growth of the future environment, economy, and industry by applying the potential strength of green growth in existing industries and technologies. The third strategy of the improvement of the quality of life and reinforcement of national status is composed of three policies, which aims to realize the goal of becoming a global model green growth nation by becoming a developed country in the green growth field, and by preparing the basis for the realization of green life, such as education, policies, and ecotourism. The three strategies and 10 policies all have the inclusive vision and goal of green construction, hence, the initiative direction and trends in future Korean green construction can be studied.
3.2.2. Trend Analysis of Green Construction Policies for the Realization of Green Construction Green construction refers to all activities concerning the construction technology that can contribute to increasing the Green effect (Lee, B. N. 2009b). Green building is expected to eventually become the standard rather than the exception in the construction industry. Highperformance and environmentally friendly green buildings are designed and built to minimize resource consumption, reduce life cycle costs, maximize health and productivity for the buildings occupants and improve environmental performance(Jason C. Spencer 2010). Green is not simply getting more respect; it is rapidly becoming a necessity as corporations-as well as home builders, retailers, health care institutions, governments, and others-push green buildings fully into the mainstream over the next five to ten years(Charles Lockwood 2006). Therefore, the composition of policies that reflect the discussions on a common value of each participant that will correctly lead green construction projects is essentially demanded (Sagong, Y. H. 2008), and these policies will promote and enhance green construction. The characteristics of Korean green construction policies will be directed at displaying sustainability largely within the range of the environment, the economy, and the society. The first strategy revealed in the three national green growth strategies adaptation to climate change and energy independence is seen as having commonalities with environmental aspects, with the reasons evident in the policy.
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First, it aims to reduce carbon emissions and greenhouse gases in the environment. To achieve this, the government will allow live viewing and management of carbon emission rates by publicizing carbon information on buildings in the construction sector and by setting goals based on this information. Furthermore, the supply of a carbon gauge and the indication of carbon emission levels in buildings will be made compulsory. The reinforcement of planning standards and incentives will be directed at lowering the carbon emission rates of newly constructed and remodeled facilities to suppress the emission of greenhouse gases in the stage prior to the planning, construction, and maintenance and management of buildings. A mid-to-long-term national greenhouse gas reduction goal has been established in 2009, and cost efficient reduction strategies are being initiated in each sector. Second, with the goal of energy independence, a value of 32% has been set for 2009, 50% for 2020, and 100% for 2050. Applicable subjects of the [Building Energy Efficiency Grade Certification Policy] that evaluates the energy reduction performance of newly constructed and existing high energy efficiency buildings will be expanded in phases in the construction field. Furthermore, the planning standards of buildings will be reinforced, and the total energy consumption rate planning policy will be implemented. The voluntary agreement (VA) will be extended for initiation on buildings that consume multiple energies to set and execute the goal of suitable energy reduction. The initiation of the phased supply of smart live energy consumption information gauges that use IT technology is being inspected for the activation of the supply of low energy consumption buildings. Furthermore, the One Million Green Homes project is also being initiated for supply projects in residential areas, buildings, and regions. Energy will be more efficiently managed by constructing national building energy monitoring systems, and by preparing energy planning standards concerning insulation based on the performance and reinforcement of planning standards to save energy in buildings. Third, the usage goal of 10% in 2008, 15% in 2009, and 30% by 2020 is established with the recommendation of environmentally friendly materials. The stabilization of quality and supply will be initiated by constructing an infrastructure and expanding the range and subject of construction based on the compulsory use of high quality recycled aggregate, from public organizations to private SOC. The plan to expand the use of recycled ascon, as well as the replacement of natural aggregate with recycled aggregate, has been initiated since 2009. The second strategy to create new driving forces for growth is seen to have commonalities with economic significance because it not only initiates the activation of green technological and industrial development in private sectors, but also expands the virtuous economic cycle structure that promotes low carbon green growth through the creation of green employment, the carbon market, and green finance. First, the government must promote environmentally friendly construction technologies by setting the construction industry as a technological area among the 27 central technological fields. The fostering of professional labor forces and the combined plan of U-City directed at the fostering of advanced green city industries and the expansion of investments in green research and development, and the reinforcement of green technological developments must be initiated. Furthermore, high added value service industries must be fostered by
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reflecting advanced fusion based on IT fusion technologies in existing industries through partnerships among industry-university-research laboratory-organizations and support toward research and development. These green construction element technologies and practical technologies must dominate the global market and acquire international competitive power as the new driving force for growth. Second, a virtuous economic cycle structure must be established with the greening of industries through the improvement in construction standards policies for the greening of general construction environments. A more active and efficient system will be formed by supporting the recycled use of construction waste and by developing and supplying construction standards for the planning, construction, and maintenance and management to reflect the concept of low carbon green growth in construction. Furthermore, a connective system will be developed between various certificate and grading systems, and green constructive certificate systems, including environmentally friendly buildings and energy efficiency grades. Third, support and incentive policies for green buildings will be likewise formulated. Industrialization will be promoted in line with the phased supply of regional, residential properties, industrial ripple effect, and employment creation to expand the green home support policy, and 5060% of the national treasury will be used for the renewable energy installation cost in detached and attached apartment houses. Furthermore, financial support on related project orders will be reinforced and the proportion of support will be expanded by finding environmentally friendly overseas plant projects. The third strategy, revealed as the third national green growth strategy, focuses on the improvement of the quality of life and reinforcement of national status, as it prepares the basis for the realization of green living, such as education, policy, and eco-tourism, and identifies Korea as a model green growth nation. First, roadmaps of the concept, type, and goal of green towns are constructed for the composition and movement of green towns. A green town is a unit centered on basic living zones that induce low carbon green growth through the voluntary execution of green living by the residents within the space of a town. Privately organized green towns or green communities will be constructed, where residents independently participate through low carbon green town government projects that reuse waste resources and biomass. Second, greening that can be felt in everyday life must be induced by government-led green welfare facilities and construction projects involving green schools, green homes, and green government office buildings. Green growth cities will be expanded by proposing low carbon green growth promotional halls and guidelines for sample green growth cities that suit regional characteristics, by selecting demonstrative regions for the composition of sample green growth cities.
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Third, a global model green growth nation must be realized. Efforts will be made to construct a green technology hub and infrastructural hub in order to become a model of green growth and contribute to the green growth of developing countries. The global green technology market occupancy rate will be expanded through overseas exports and advancement through branding based on the foundation of continual national growth and expansion of future environmentally friendly social-based facilities.
4. CONCLUSION Korea is currently taking a step toward green growth in construction within the global trend of green growth. The top 10 contractors in Korea demonstrated positive expectations and profitability toward future green construction, and the future growth of green construction in Korea could not be denied with the National Green Growth Strategy presented in 2009. Green growth in Korea refers to the growth of the economy, the environment, and the society through a single virtuous cycle based on the greening of life and industry. Hence, we will be able to see Koreas national strategies directed at future green construction within the three strategies and 10 policies. In summary, the characteristics of Koreas green growth, and especially, green construction, are as follows. First, the construction process and management will be reinforced to develop green buildings. A management system that can set goals and can be executed according to the state of the buildings will be constructed after evaluating the carbon emission rate and total energy consumption rate policy, and grades applied on various buildings, including the building grade and energy efficiency grade. Furthermore, planning standards will be reinforced in the entire process of the planning and construction stages of buildings to allow the construction of energy-independent green buildings. Second, greening will be introduced to lead the industry and the economy. Advanced green cities or green homes will be planned through government-supported policies, research and development investment, and technological developments, which will further induce employment and make greening initiatives as the new driving force of growth. Third, greening in basic living areas will be brought to the global stage. Based on national greening, individual residential spaces in developing countries will be branded for overseas exportation and advancement, as well as the establishment of a model green nation image to attain a higher status in the green construction market. Koreas green construction, as revealed through the National Green Growth Strategy, relies on the expansion of renewable energy and IT management systems in response to previous reduction of waste and passive energy use. Through such initiative, the future green construction industry and market in Korea is likely to expand further.
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REFERENCES
AECOM, 2010. Sustainability Report 2008/2009, www.aecom.com/ Baek, J.B., 2005. A study on the Korean enterprises' business opportunities with the effectuation of Kyoto Protocol, Graduate School of Kwangwoon University, Masters thesis Balfour Beatty, 2009. Sustainability vision and roadmap, http://www.balfourbeatty.com/ Building and Construction Authority (BCA), 2009. Legislation on Environment Sustainability for Buildings, http://www.bca.gov.sg/EnvSusLegislation/Environmental_Sustainability_Legislation.html [19 August 2009]. CH2MHILL, 2011. CH2MHILL Sustainability report 2011, www.ch2m.com Charles Lockwood, 2006. Harvard Business Review-Building the Green Way, HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL PUBLISHING CORPORATION DuBose, J.R., Bosch, S.J., and Pearce, A.R, (2007). Analysis of Statewide Green Building Policies, Journal of Green Building, Vol. 2, No. 2. Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), 2009. Concerted Action Energy Performance of Buildings Directive. EU EPBD, http://www.epbd-ca.org/ [19 August 2009]. Hwang, D.H., 2011. Reviewing Green Business models to apply on Domestic Industries in Korea, Graduate School of Ajou University, Masters thesis Jason C. Spencer, 2010. CONTRACT RISKS ON LEED GREEN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS Lee, B.N., 2009a. Selection of the role of construction management in the green growth market, Kor. J. Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 10, No. 6., pp. 810 Lee, B.N., 2009b. Selection of the role of construction management, the global green construction market, and green growth, Kor. J. Construction Engineering and Management, pp. 142 McGraw Hill, 2011. The Green Outlook 2011, McGraw Hill McGraw Hill, 2008. The View Ahead: Construction Outlook, Green Market Trends, & Business Opportunities, McGraw Hill Nobe, M. C., and Dunbar, B, (2004). Sustainable Development Trends in Construction, Proc., ASC Proceeding of 40th Annual Conference, Fort Collins, CO. Presidential Committee on Green Growth, http://www.greengrowth.go.kr Presidential Committee on Green Growth, 2009. Green growth national strategy and five-year plan, Low Carbon green growth primary law Sagong, Y.H., 2008. What is Policy?: An Introspection on the Instrumental Value of Policy, Korean policy studies review, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 138 Sim, G.Y., 2003. The Role of Activity Variables to the Profitability of Listed Firms, Business management research, Vol. 9, No. 1., pp. 177202 U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC), (2006a). USGBC Introductory Presentation, http://www.usgbc.org/ (November 12, 2006). U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC), (2006b). LEED Reference Guide, Version 2.2, Green Building Council
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IMPACT OF NATIONAL CULTURE ON SAFETY MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

Serkan Kivrak Anadolu University, Dep. of Civil Engineering, Eskisehir, Turkey, serkankivrak@anadolu.edu.tr Gokhan Arslan Anadolu University, Dep. of Civil Engineering, Eskisehir, Turkey, gokhana@anadolu.edu.tr Mustafa Tuncan Anadolu University, Dep. of Civil Engineering, Eskisehir, Turkey, mtuncan@anadolu.edu.tr
Abstract Safety management practices in international construction projects can be affected by national culture since culture has a great potential to impact on business activities. The research reported in this paper is a part of a wider study aimed at investigating the effects of cultural differences on construction projects. One of the specific objectives of this study was to find out the possible effects of national culture on safety management practices in construction. The research was carried out in three international construction projects located in Qatar, Libya and Bulgaria. The researcher stayed in each of these projects for 1 month for the purpose of data collection. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with 76 construction professionals. Content analysis was completed with computer assistance using the software program NVivo 2.0. Based on the findings, safety culture of companies plays an important role in minimizing the effects of national cultural differences on safety management practices in construction projects. Keywords: culture, international construction, national culture, safety management.
1. INTRODUCTION
The importance of national culture has become critical especially for companies operating in international markets or having employees from different cultures. Since culture has the potential to impact on business activities, companies have to consider the cultural concepts in their daily businesses to operate successfully in the global marketplace. Like in other industries, the increase in strategic alliances in construction also increases the significance of cultural differences due to the interaction of people from different cultures (Shore and Cross 2005).
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The definitions of culture differ greatly according to the research fields. Hofstedes (1984) definition in terms of organizations is the collective programming of the mind which distinguishes one group from another. Barthorpe et al. (2000) presented an overview of the literature published on the subject of culture and defined it simply as what we are and what we do as a society. Culture has several properties which have also been widely accepted (Barthorpe et al. 2000, Loosemore 1999). It is shared, learned, symbolic, tradition, shapes behaviour and can change over time. Hofstede (1984) identified four dimensions of culture. These extensively used and well known dimensions are; power distance, uncertainty avoidance, individualism/collectivism and masculinity/femininity. The four dimensions provide a framework for considering the effects of cultural differences on management and organization. Power distance is the extent of power inequality among members of an organizational society. High power distance means that people accept inequality in power among institutions, organizations and people. Uncertainty avoidance refers to the extent to which members of an organizational society feel threatened by and try to avoid future uncertainty or ambiguous situations. High uncertainty avoidance means that members of a society feel uncomfortable with uncertainty and ambiguity and thus support beliefs that promise certainty and conformity. Individualism and collectivisim describes the relationship between the individual and collectivity that is reflected in the way people live together. High individualism means the ties between individuals are loose and individuals value their freedom and independence. Masculinity and femininity refers to the extent of roles division between sexes to which people in a society put different emphasis on work goals and assertiveness as opposed to personal goals and nurturance. A high masculinity ranking indicates the country experiences a high degree of gender differentiation. In these cultures, males dominate a significant portion of the society and power structure, with females being controlled by male domination (Hofstede 1984). In Table 1, Hofstedes (1984) cultural dimension values for some countries are illustrated. According to these values, Turkey is more collectivist than the United States of America and Canada. The construction industry has a poor safety record when compared with other industries (Carter and Smith, 2001). According to previous studies, one of the most significant factors of construction site accidents is the unsafe behavior (Sawacha et al. 1999). Many studies have shown that there is a close relationship between individual safety behavior and safety performance (Tarrants 1980). On the other hand, Mohamed (2002) found a significant relationship between the safety climate and safe work behavior. He stated that safe work behaviours are consequences of the existing safety climate. Safety climate is 'a summary concept describing the employees' beliefs about all the safety issues (Guldenmund 2000). There is a growing interest in the studies on the culture of the construction industry, and the effects of culture and cultural differences on construction. Previous studies and experiences in the construction industry have showed that cultural differences can have an impact on management practices such as safety management. Different nationalities may have different attitudes towards safety. Therefore, national cultural differences is an issue that has to be considered in safety management applications.
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Country Arab Countries Canada China Germany India Japan Philippines Russia Turkey United Kingdom United States of America
Power Distance 80 39 80 35 77 54 94 90 66 35 40
Uncertainty Avoidance 68 48 40 65 40 92 44 70 85 35 46
Individualism Masculinity 38 80 15 67 48 46 32 42 37 89 91 52 52 55 66 56 95 64 37 45 66 62
Long Term Orientation 23 114 31 61 80 19 25 29
Table 1: Hofstede's Dimension of Culture Scales
2. IMPACTS OF NATIONAL CULTURE ON SAFETY MANAGEMENT

National culture has the potential to impact on safety management. However, studies on the effects of national culture on safety management are relatively limited (Mearns and Yule 2009). Especially in the construction industry, only few studies have been carried out about this subject. National culture is an issue which cannot be ignored in this industry and thus special attention should be given to the effects of cultural differences on management practices (Kivrak et al. 2008). One of the studies about this subject was conducted by Mohamed et al. (2009). Using Hofstedes cultural dimensions, they found that workers working in a more collectivist, feminist, and higher uncertainty avoidance environment, are more likely to have safety awareness and beliefs and thus exhibit safer work behaviour. In their study, Seymen and Bolat (2010) examined how national cultural dimensions affect the safety culture using Hofstede's cultural dimensions. They indicated that "risk perception" is the most related dimension with national cultural dimensions within safety culture/climate dimensions. Moreover, they stated that to establish an efficient safety culture for employees from different cultures it should be understood that safety risks are not perceived in the same way and training and communication activities should be prepared and sustained in this content (Seymen and Bolat 2010). Using data from 68 organizations, Burke et al. (2008) investigated the role of national culture and organizational climate on the transfer of training to the work context. They found that
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uncertainty avoidance as a dimension of national culture moderated the transfer of safety training with regard to reducing accidents and injuries. Mearns and Yule (2009) reviewed published literature on cross-cultural differences in attitudes, perceptions and beliefs regarding safety. According to their analysis, more proximal influences such as perceived management commitment to safety and the efficacy of safety measures exert more impact on workforce behaviour and subsequent accident rates than fundamental national values. Jaselskis et al. (2008) suggested a culturally integrated training program for the Spanish workers in construction sector in the USA. According to their study, language and communication are the main factors that affect safety performance. According to the studies above, national cultural differences can affect the safety performance of the companies. In this paper, the possible effects of national cultural differences on safety management practices in construction have been examined. Little attention has been given in the literature to the effects of national culture on safety management in construction. Thus, this study has the potential to contribute to the literature in this field.
3. METHODS
The research reported in this paper is a part of a wider study aimed at investigating the effects of cultural differences on construction projects. One of the specific objectives of this study was to find out the possible effects of national cultural differences on safety management practices in construction. The research was carried out in three international construction projects located in Qatar (TurkishJapanese Joint Venture), Libya (Turkish Libyan Joint Venture), and in Bulgaria (TurkishTurkish Joint Venture). The study was conducted using a qualitative approach to provide enhanced understanding and generate rich descriptions of the concept of the effects of national culture. The researcher stayed in each project for 1 month for the purpose of data collection. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with 76 construction professionals including directors, project managers, group managers, construction managers, technical office and site engineers. The interviews were carried out at the airport project in Qatar between April and May 2009, at the infrastructure project in Libya between January and February 2010, and at the highway project in Bulgaria between August and September 2010. Each interview lasted approximately 1 hour. The participants were chosen through purposive sampling. More than half of the participants were Turkish professionals whereas the remaining participants were from 14 different nationalities including British, American, Japanese, German, Egyptian and Greek. The questions were strongly shaped by the probing questions to seek further details. The interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed. The data collected were coded and analyzed using content analysis, based on guidelines provided by Gillham (2000) and Strauss
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and Corbin (1998). Content analysis was completed with computer assistance using the software program NVivo 2.0. This program was selected for its powerful data codification and data searching capabilities. Finally, emerged themes from the data were identified and they are reinforced with actual instances from the transcripts.
4. STUDY FINDINGS
During the interviews, each participant was asked to provide some personal information such as educational background and professional experience. Based on the analysis, 37% of the participants have more than 10 years' of experience in international construction. Half of the interviewees have more than 15 years' of experience in the construction sector. The majority of the participants (49%) have a civil engineering degree. During the interviews the participants were asked for their opinions about the effects of cultural differences on management practices. All interviewees acknowledged the importance of cultural issues in performing business activities in the construction business environment. Previous studies related to the impacts of cultural differences on management practices in construction showed that the differences have an impact on these practices, either negative or positive. However, exactly how culture affects management is still a difficult question to answer (Shore and Cross 2005). According to the participants cultural differences can have an effect on all management practices, but in different ways and levels. Based on the analysis, different findings are obtained from different projects. In construction projects located in Libya and Bulgaria, safety management was reported as one of the main practices that are influenced by national cultural differences. On the other hand, different findings are obtained from the study in Qatar. The majority of the participants working at the airport project in Qatar considered the effects of national culture on safety as negligible. The neglibigle effects of culture on safety can be attributed to the well-established safety procedures and applications in this project. As explained in the following sections, safety culture of the companies and effective health and safety trainings provided in this project play a significant role to minimize the effects of national culture. Four main themes emerged from the data analysis regarding the effects of culture on safety: safety culture, level of education, communication and motivation. Some of the topics show similarities with the findings of Schubert and Dijkstra (2009).
4.1. Safety culture There are many definitions of safety culture in the literature. The terms safety culture and safety climate have been used interchangeably in the literature (Cox and Flin 1998). Safety culture is directly related to thoughts, behaviors and perceptions of the organization's members concerning safety (Choudhry et al. 2007, Seymen and Bolat 2010). According to
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Yule et al. (2007), safety culture is a set of values and beliefs that guide action, internalised through socialisation and learnt through symbolism whereas safety climate reflects the mood and current attitude toward safety, combined with the dominant underlying beliefs about safety that are measurable. According to the majority of interviewees, safety culture plays a major role in preventing possible accidents. This finding is consistent with many previous studies (Neal and Griffin 2000, Mohamed et al. 2009, Mearns and Yule 2009). Company support plays an important role in implementing an effective safety management system in construction projects. As Eiff (1999) stated, when top management is committed to safety, it provides adequate resources and consistently supports the development and implementation of safety activities. Moreover, the majority of the participants believe that a well-established safety culture has the great potential to minimize the impact of national culture. This argument was especially supported by participants from the project in Qatar. One manager noted: I believe in this project we have extremely good safety management practices put in place supported by our top management. I have to say this is probably the best project in terms of safety. I think that culturally there is no real influence. Another manager also indicated the importance of management support: I do not think that safety management here can be effected by cultural differences. Safety management operates well here. That is not to say that everything is perfect but certain procedures are established. When it comes to cultural differences there is no question. Its just do it. The participants from the projects in Libya and Bulgaria, in which safety management practices were not well-established, also supported this belief by linking safety management applications to project costs. One manager commented: In this project, safety management is not enough. You cant manage safety, financially and legally without top-management commitment. We have safety management in theory but not in practice. Because safety costs time and money. Some people and companies do not care much of safety. It can differ from company to company. Safety management practices in each project were observed during the study period. In the construction project in Qatar, a reward system was implemented to promote safe behavior. Each month several awards are given to companies and individuals based on the safety performance evaluations. According to Reason (1990), one of the key components of an organizations safety culture is the way in which both safe and unsafe behavior is evaluated and the consistency in which rewards or penalties are given according to these evaluations. The participants overwhelmingly expressed the need for a structured health and safety training. Furthermore, in this project health and safety trainings are provided to all project staff regularly in a structured manner. In contrast, there were no reward systems in both projects in Libya and Bulgaria. Moreover, health and safety trainings in these projects were unstructured and not given regularly. Thus, there were significant differences between the
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projects in Qatar and those in Libya and Bulgaria in terms of safety management practices. These findings are relatively consistent with results of the study of Burke et al. (2008). Using Hofstedes dimension, Burke et al. (2008) found that as uncertainty avoidance increases, the effectiveness of safety and health training in reducing negative outcomes such as accidents decreases. Moreover, according to their findings they suggest that organizations in uncertainty avoidant nations tend to train workers using less engaging methods.
4.2. Level of education The majority of the participants mentioned lack of education of construction workers as a critical issue for an effective safety management in projects. This belief was especially supported by the participants from the projects in Libya and Bulgaria. One manager highlighted the low education level of construction workers and difficulty in giving them instructions about safety regulations: We have workers from Africa. They are not well educated and poor people. It is quite difficult for us to train them about the necessary safety rules. They are not used to it and understanding the safety concept takes too much time. Schubert and Dijkstra (2009) stated that the most common solution to overcome this problem are to give detailed introductions in special toolbox meetings and employing workers having certificates.
4.3. Communication Since language is the most important medium of communication and is often used to distinguish one culture from another (Walker et al. 2003), differences in language can be a major source of communication problems (Loosemore and Al Muslmani 1999). A common theme that emerged from analysis of the interviews was the problems of communication with people from different cultural backgrounds. Language differences were noted as one of the biggest problem in effective communication. The participants reported that miscommunication is one of the main problems during their day-to-day business in the project. It was stated that these problems can seriously influence business processes such as safety management. The finding are in parallel with the study results of Schubert and Dijkstra (2009). They also found that communication with different cultures lead to problems in instructions regarding safety management practices. One manager commented: To give the information about safety we have to communicate. Sometimes we struggle because of cultural differences. At the beginning, our supervisors were from Europe and the workforce mostly from Southeast Asia so communication struggled sometimes. We did some workshops to get in. Now we have Turkish supervisors, an Indian trainer for the Indian, and an Indonesian trainer for people coming from Indonesia. We facilitate training for any culture.
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4.4. Motivation Some participants mentioned lack of motivation as a critical issue for following the safety applications. They indicated that construction workers should have the necessary motivation to perform safety applications effectively. According to some of the interviewees, lack of motivation in performing necessary job-related activities is a more critical issue than international experience or language differences. Motivation is also linked with personality and mentality. At this point, participants recommended that companies should select expatriates carefully, based on their personalities and their ability to adapt to foreign cultures, in addition to their technical problem-solving skills and knowledge. One manager commented on this subject as following: When I came here I saw the people were tired. Then we started promotions, started games here. We look at the safe behaviors of people working at this site. When I came here they didnt want to participate. We started motivating the people. You can train somebodys culture. You can if you motivate.
5. CONCLUSIONS
Culture has the potential to impact on business activities. Therefore, companies have to consider the cultural issues in their daily businesses to operate successfully in the global marketplace. This paper presented the findings of a research that was a part of a wider study aimed at investigating the effects of cultural differences on construction projects. One of the specific objectives of this study was to find out the possible effects of national cultural differences on safety management practices in construction. National cultural differences can not be considered independently from the safety culture of the organization. Four main themes emerged from the data analysis regarding the effects of culture on safety: safety culture, level of education, communication and motivation. This research supports findings in existing literature. Different nationalities may have different attitudes toward adherence to rules and procedures, and the importance of safety. However, one of the main findings of this study was the direct relationship between safety culture and the influence of national culture on safety management. Based on the findings, a well-established safety culture have a significant potential to minimize the possible effects of national culture on safety applications. On the other hand, the influence of national culture can arise if safety culture of companies are not well-established. There is evidence from the findings that management commitment to safety is a more important determinant of behaviour at work than national culture. Therefore, companies should give the neccessary importance to safety and establish a safety culture to minimize the possible effects of national culture.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support of the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK, Project No. 108K371) and the interviewees for their valuable contributions.
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BIM-SUPPORTED LIFECYCLE-ORIENTED DESIGN FOR ENERGY EFFICIENT INDUSTRIAL FACILITY A CASE STUDY
Iva Kovacic Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria, ikovacic@industriebau.tuwien.ac.at Lars Oberwinter Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria, ikovacic@industriebau.tuwien.ac.at
Abstract The rising requirements on building performance in terms of energy- and resources efficiency result with increasing complexity of design and planning process. The consequence is a large number of planning process stakeholders working with different models and tools, numerous simulations and increasing data-flows. New methodological approach and tools for design and construction process is necessary, in order to provide for more efficient communication and information management. BIM (building information modeling) as tool as well as method promises enables high level of integration and therefore management of complex data and information loads. Research shows that for successful realization of complex projects such as sustainable buildings are, is not only implementation of innovative technology, but also design of planning network necessary. This paper will present a case study of BIM-use for design and life-cycle optimization of energy efficient industrial facility within research project INFO (Interdisciplinary Research for Energy Efficiency in Production). The research project introduces a holistic approach to the design and planning of energy efficient production facility; developing an integral simulation for analysis and optimization of energy flows form micro (machine) to macro (production layout, building) level. Within the project scope, different Building-Information-Modelingtools have been tested for design of a parametric, digital building-model. The information embedded in this model was transferred in the first step to thermal simulation- and life-cycle costing models. Based of qualitative analysis of potentials and deficits of the practicability, usability and interoperability of BIM-tools within complex collaborative environments, recommendations for producing and processing building information models serving a multitude of purposes will be presented. Keywords: BIM, interdisciplinary collaboration, energy efficiency, industrial building, LCC
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1. INTRODUCTION
The complexity of the planning and construction process has been evidently rising (Doyle and Hughes, 2000; Magnet et al, 2009); and even more so through introduction of numerous regulations and planning targets for achievement of sustainability. The factors such as ever larger project-size (mega-projects), complex building geometry, and numerous requirements on the building performance with respect to energy and resources efficiency, upcoming number of building certificates lead to a growing number of the planning process participants and disciplines. The spectrum of the implemented specialised tools used by each discipline is consequently rapidly increasing. BIM (Building Information Modelling) has often been recognised by research and practice as suitable tool for support of collaborative planning, facilitating communication and information exchange between numerous planning process participants; and eventually to leading to maximization of efficiency- and quality and reducing time effort. (Sebastian and van Berlo, 2011) BIM (Building Information Modeling) is largely understood as object-oriented digital representation of a building or built environment, which enables interoperability and dataexchange in digital form. However, BIM addresses primarily the process of model-building and information exchange (Succar, 2007). BIM is much more about how (design of design process), that about what (building model and its properties). The continuous growth of technical possibilities of current BIM-tools positively influences the market presence within planning and building industry sector for such tools. (McHill Graw, 2010) However, despite the large and in the meanwhile unquestionable rising demand for BIM-supported tools by the planning practitioners, the knowledge on the actual design of optimal BIM-supported design and planning process is still lacking in the Mid-European region. In the practical BIM operation and use the number of problems on different levels can be met. On the technological level the questions of the interfaces in the data transfer of the interdisciplinary models arises, as well as of the heterogeneous data-structure of the different software the art of model building and management of ever larger data-volumes. On the semantical level, it can be noticed that each discipline needs individual information; the professional languages differ strongly as well as the means and methods to represent a building. (Bazjanac and Kviniemi, 2007) The spectrum reaches from diverse lists for project management and quantity surveys, over reduced slab model for structural engineering for earthquake simulation, to complete spatial representation of architectural model in the full geometric complexity. The optimal management, filtering and reliable synchronisation of these very differentiated information in the context of in the building industry still dominant heterogeneous softwarestructure requires high effort in organisation, administration interdisciplinary communication and know-how. A standard solution offering the complete software package for this large
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spectrum does not yet exist, and it is a question if such solution is viable for every building and consequently every design process is of prototypic nature. Much more a guideline for efficient design of design process for optimisation of communication, administration and time-effort is necessary. The over-all understanding for of BIM- related benefits for planning networks and for built environment is still not well understood, due to the complexity of the tools, but more over to the related transformation of planning process. Closer research of both aspects: technology and design of BIM-supported planning process is necessary.
2. SCOPE OF RESEARCH
The introduction of sharpened regulations and standards on built environment in terms of sustainability (energy- and resources efficiency, increasing of use of renewable energy, reduction of emissions) result in increasing project complexity. Projects participants, numerous specialists for different areas of expertise, are getting more diversified using numerous modeling and simulation tools (Dossick and Neff, 2008). The efficient planning process requires carefully designed communication and collaboration; for which BIM-tools prove to be suitable, enabling interoperability and integration. A BIM model and BIM-supported optimization process of energy efficient industrial facility, carried out as case study within project INFO (Interdisciplinary Research for Energy Efficiency in Production) at the Vienna University of Technology (VUT) will be presented. The project is supported by the Climate and Energy Fund and aims to realize a systemically integrated model of an energy efficient production facility; simulation and analyzing energy flows from micro level (comprising the production process and the machine tool) to the macro level (involving the production layout and the facility). Thereby, the project consists of five main phases (analysis, modeling, coupled modeling, optimization, and implementation) in which processes, machines and the building will be addressed. As the final outcome of INFOproject, an integrated simulation will be developed, to serve as managerial tool for optimization of energy-, emissions and costs of industrial facility. The project involves seven institutes of the VUT and ten industrial partners. The institutes cover wide range of specializations, involving faculties of architecture, civil and mechanical engineering and computer sciences. Due to the large diversity of the specialized experts and high level of sophistication of simulation-tools to be employed, it was crucial that the building model, as starting model delivering number of input parameters for integrated simulation fully supports interoperability and offers interfaces for further models, to be carried out in e.g. Modelica (2012), Trnsys (2012) and Energyplus (2012). Different BIM-tools have been tested for design of a parametric, digital building-model. Using the information implemented in this model, further simulations for thermal simulation and life-cycle costing through scenario based design were carried out; after which the initial model was optimized.
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The case study-evaluation of the implemented BIM-model will be based on evaluation-model developed by Rekola, Kojima and Mkeleinene (2011); developed on BIM and IPD implementation case-study of university building project. There an evaluationframework of technology-, process- and people-bound problems and benefits was developed; where as process is described by workflows, timing, procurement, contracts; people are related to competences, skills, knowledge, communication; and technology to software (tools). In our case study following evaluation-model will be proposed: Technology-related issues of tested BIM-tools: practicability, usability and interoperability for data exchange formats IFC (Industry Foundation Classes) (BuildingSmart, 2012) and gbXML (2012) interfaces Process- and people-related issues: communication, coordination, network-organization, workload distribution Finally, after identification and qualitative evaluation of problems and potentials of BIMimplementation within research project a way of producing and processing building information models serving a multitude of purposes for life cycle optimization of facility will be present.
3. METHODOLOGY AND MODELING PROCESS

The systemic integrated simulation for energy efficient industrial facility; as final outcome of INFO project will be using holistic, life-cycle oriented approach in optimization of energy consumption and performance of an industrial facility. In order to compile a holistic model for the integrated simulation, main optimisation-fields were defined: machines and production system, energy systems and building. On a case study of existing production facility, these fields were analysed in terms of energy flows, occupancy rates and functionality; based on the gathered data a conceptual model for optimised facility was carried out.
Figure 1: Optimization fields as subcomponents of integrated simulation (Kovacic, Leobner et al, 2012)
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As first step in modelling process of optimised facility the conceptualisation of new building was chosen, in order to provide input parameters for the integrated simulation, such as: building geometry (orientation) information on building hull (percentage of transparent vs. translucent areas, U-values) , function (occupational rates, number of people/m) energy performance (loads of machines, lightning and HVAC facilities). In order to provide a large amount of intelligent data, easy to handle and to transfer, we decided for BIM method for design and representation of the building and HVAC (heating, ventilation, air-conditioning). The conceptual design of new building model started with analysis of the existing industrial facility in terms of work-flows (delivery, storage and production), energy-flows, emissions (oil, dust, humidity, noise and heat losses), occupancy parameters (working hours and shifts for offices and production). A pre-design of the facility was compiled upon briefing process with client, involving workshops and interviews, after which functional and spatial program was compiled. Finally, a real layout, considering the location and infrastructure (public and private transport, delivery and logistics) together with building orientation and micro-climatic conditions has been developed as BIM, parametric 3D model allowing the representation of interactive, data-rich elements.
Figure 2: BIM-model of industrial facility
For the BIM-modelling of the facility Autodesk Revit (2012) and ArchiCAD (2012) were employed, for comparative evaluation on technology-aspects: usability/practicability and interoperability.
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Special focus in the modelling was put on the design of faade as of determining element for corporate image but at the same time energy efficiency through quality (U-Value), percentage of glazing (solar gains), shading, free ventilation and -cooling through operable window-elements. Tree variants were developed based on web-based investor-inquiry, determining the key design and performance indicators for industrial facades for investors. The facades were built up as parametric building element-sets; replaceable per one clickaccess. Faade type A B C Exterior panel Metal Metal (zinc coated) Metal (zinc coated) Insulation Mineral wool Polyurethane foam Wood fiber insulation panel U-value [W.m2.K1] 0.26 0.1 0.27
Table 1: Overview of facade typologies
The finished 3D parametric model was handed over to building physics department, for thermal simulation of internal loads, to be carried out in Energyplus. To enable data transfer to thermal simulation, the gbXML interface based model was crated from both BIM-models. Due to the numerous problems of the gbXML model mostly resulting from the too complex geometry (Figure 2), the model was redrawn in simplified rectangular geometry directly in Energyplus by the building physics partner.
Figure 3: Shed-roofs in longitudinal section of facility
The results of simulation were handed over to architectural team in form of xls-based lists; upon which the facades were optimised. (U-Values neglected, external shading and operable windows provided); and life-cycle cost were calculated in specially customised xls-based IEEFA tool (Waltenberger, 2011).
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Figure 4: BIM-process as implemented in the case-study
4. FINDINGS AND RESULTS QUALITATIVE EVALUATION

4.1 Technology related issues: Usability/Practicability Usability and practicability were tested in terms of user friendliness, intuitive operation, support and service. Interdisciplinarity The issue of interdisciplinary work was evaluated through aspects of BIM-tool related capabilities for architectural, structural and HVAC design. It was not possible for MEP engineer to work with provided BIM models, so 2D Autocad drawings were provided; resulting with additional drawing effort for architectural team, consequent changes will not be possible in parametric manner, but will have to be executed manually (increasing the effort and time spent on change management). Interoperability For the aspect of interoperability IFC interface as the most relevant interface was tested.
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It was possible to generate IFC models from both Revit and ArchiCAD; however Revit was incapable of importing IFC model. The tested gbXML interface could be evaluated as still not mature enough. The complexity of geometry, such as round pillars and shed-roofs caused problems, reflected in exorbitant file sizes and open geometries in energy plus, which again disabled the simulation. gbMXL was equally inefficient from both models (Revit and ArchiCAD). This was reflected in increase of drawing effort, since the building had to be redrawn in simplified geometry by the physicist. BIM-models, as primarily architectural models tend to be too detailed in the representation and of too small granulation for the simulation. Architectural models use room stamps per room, where as the simulation needs the partition into (thermal) zones again simplification is necessary. Criteria: Usability Data exchange between different BIM-Software (IFC) Capabilities Architectural Design Capabilities Structural Design Capabilities HVAC Design Revit + + + ArchiCAD ++ ++ ++
Table 2: Qualitative BIM-evaluation of technical benefits and problems
4.2 People- and Process The technological problems have immediate impact on people- and process related issues: In order to provide functional process and data transfer, significant communication and coordination effort was necessary. The disciplines needed to find conventions on data- and model- representation, to provide for more efficient planning process. Simulation is especially effected by the need for conventions, due to the high level of simplification of architectural model. The proceeding tested in this case study was one-way BIM, since only architectural team was using BIM, all others 2Dcad, xls-lists or customised xls-based tools. Automated optimization was not possible, since BIM was used as one-way , but only manual for which again feedback was necessary, occurring in workshops, meetings etc. Result was significant increase of communication and loss of productive time. Through several feedback loops (repeated cycles of optimization simulation adaptation) the errors in input-data for simulation started increasing, resulting with uncertainty and finally in lack of trust in generated data. The danger is that one-way-BIM ends as dead-end BIM.
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5. CONCLUSION
The BIM-implementation tested in this case-study was atypical, since used in research environment, and not in business-as-usual planning practice. Therefore, it was not bound to the strictly predefined boundary conditions concerning efficiency, time- and cost- limitations (budget) which often increase conflict-potential through high stress-levels of planning teams when adapting new technology. It can be said, that the test was carried out in BIM-optimistic environment, which again should (positively) influence qualitative evaluation. Despite this BIM-approving setting many problems on both technological as well as process related level were identified. The key factor for efficient implementation and use of BIM within holistic planning- and simulation process is careful design of the actual process; which should precede the actual planning. In number of workshops the exact scope of action and level of detailing for specific representations (disciplines) to be extracted from BIM model should be determined. In this way unnecessary multiple editing can be avoided. Further on, more effort should be put into definition of work-flows and responsibilities of stakeholders within work-flows (who does what?). Great potential is to be seen in further development and interoperability of BIM-add-on tools for energy-optimization and calculation such as Archiphysik (2012), which extracts geometry, masses and functional units from BIM model for calculation of energy demand and energy certificate. The increasing requirements on prediction and optimization of life-cycle costs can also beneficially use data richness of BIM model. Through compilation of several options within short period of time; option based planning is enabled, difficult to carry out in the past due to the lack of time-resources for thorough calculation. The greatest criticism can be addressed to the use of one-way-BIM against the fullyintegrated BIM where all disciplines would work simultaneously in one BIM-model; instead of generating and extracting the necessary information form a BIM-model and feeding it back by alpha-numerical data. Such proceeding requires higher-information-rich transfer mechanisms, such as seminars, workshops, committees, formal and informal meetings and video conferences, because of the information-complexity, which again is time consuming and costly, with increased probability of errors. Therefore, we argue a fully-integrated BIM Model is most beneficial for efficient, interdisciplinary planning process; requiring however precise design of design process.
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Figure 5: Fully-integrated BIM-Model
The full scope of BIM-benefits will be assessed after completion of integrated simulation, which will show additional value of data rich model and potentials to carry out time saving evaluation of large number of options.
REFERENCES
Autodesk Revit, http://www.autodesk.de/adsk/servlet/pc/index?id=14644879&siteID=403786, last accessed April 2012 ArchiCAD, http://www.graphisoft.de/produkte/archicad/, last accessed April 2012 Archpyisik, http://www.archiphysik.at/, last accessed April 2012 Building Smart http://www.buildingsmart.de/, last accessed April 2012 Bazjanac V., Kiviniemi A., 2007. Reduction, Simplification, Translation and Interpretation in Exchange of Model Data. CIB W78, Maribor Doyle, A. and Hughes, W., 2000. The influence of project complexity on estimating accuracy. In: Akintoye, A (Ed.), 16th Annual ARCOM Conference, 68 September 2000, Glasgow Caledonian University. Association of Researchers in Construction Management, Vol. 2, pp. 62334
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Dossick, C. S. and Neff, G. 2008. How leadership overcomes organizational divisions in BIM-enabled commercial construction. LEAD 2008, South Lake Tahoe, CA. Energyplus, http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/energyplus/, last accessed April 2012 gbXML, http://www.gbxml.org/, last accessed April 2012 Kovacic I., Leobner I., Reinisch C., Drr F., Dimitrou A., 2012. INFO Interdisciplinary research for energy efficient production, Cooperation Meeting 2012 , Vienna May 31st June 2nd 2012, Vienna University of Technology Magnet C., Korkmaz S., Klotz L., Riley D., 2009. A Deign Process Evaluation Method for Sustainable Buildings. Architectural Engineering and Design Management, Vol. 5, pp. 6274 McGraw Hill, 2010. SmartMarket Report The Business value of BIM in Europe Modelica, https://modelica.org/, last accessed April 2012 Recola M., Kojima J. , Mkelinen T., 2010. Integrated Design and Delivery Solutions, Architectural Engineering and Design Management, Vol. 6, pp. 264278 Sebastian R., van Berlo L. , 2010. Tool for Benchmarking BIM Performance of Design, Engineering and Construction Firms in The Netherlands. Architectural Engineering and Design Management, Vol. 6, pp.254263 Succar B., 2010. The five components of BIM performance management. Proceedings of CIB World Congress, Salford Trnsys, http://sel.me.wisc.edu/trnsys/, last accessed April 2012 Waltenberger, L., 2011. LCC und LCA von Fassadensystemen im Industriebau. Masterthesis at Department for Industrial Building and Interdisciplinary Planning, Vienna University of Technology 2011
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ANTI-CRISES REGULATION INTRODUCED INTO THE PUBLIC PROCUREMENT LAW AND THEIR IMPORTANCE FOR THE CONSTRUCTION MARKET IN POLAND
Renata Kozik, Elbieta Starzyk Cracow University of Technology, Cracow, Poland rkozik@ztob.pk.edu.pl, estarzyk@ztob.pk.edu.pl
Abstract The article describes selected changes to the Polish public procurement law introduced by the Act of 5 November 2009 the so-called minor amendment. The authors of this article have also attempted to establish what significance these changes, which are referred to as anti-crisis measures, might have in relation to the public procurement market for construction works in Poland. The analysis uses, among others, the statistical data from the Reports from the Functioning of the Public Procurement System and The Public Information Bulletin of the Public Procurement Office. Keywords: public construction contracts, anti-crisis measures
1. INTRODUCTION
Since it became effective, the Polish public procurement law of 29 January 2004 had been undergoing changes aimed at improvements in the operation of the system of the public contracts, which are granted by national entities. However, the subsequent modifications of the regulations did result in the simplification of the system, as requested by the participants of the Polish public procurement market. The amendment to the Act of 5 November 2009 on the amendment of the Public Procurement Act and the Act on Court Costs in Civil Matters the so-called minor amendment or anti-crisis amendment, was a response of the legislator to market changes and its purpose was to primarily secure the interests of contractors through the introduction of protection measures for their financial liquidity as part of the proceedings and execution of public contracts, as well as to render the existing public procurement law more flexible in order to further open up the public procurement market. According to the governments substantiation, the principal reasons for the introduction of the minor amendment were: the need to deal with the challenges of the current economic situation, limitation of the negative effects of the crisis on the labour market, adjustment of Polish law to the requirements stemming from the European
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regulations, the need to deformalise and hasten the award system for public contracts and the willingness to increase competitiveness on the public procurement market1. The main alterations introduced in 2009 to the Polish public procurement law in relation to the crisis were as follows2: Introduction of the admissibility to use the resources of third parties by the bidder to satisfy the requirements related to the participation in the proceedings; Waiver of the obligatory prerequisite to demand a performance bond for contracts with value exceeding the EU thresholds; Introduction of the obligation to immediately return deposits to the contractors, whose tenders have not been selected; Introduction of the possibility to grant advances against the execution of a contract; These changes are discussed in section 2.1 2.4.
2.1. Introduction of the admissibility to use the resources of third parties by the bidder to satisfy the requirements related to the participation in the proceedings Prior to the amendment, the contractors needed to show that they had the necessary knowledge and experience, and that they possessed the technical and human potential to carry out the contract; alternatively they had to provide a written obligation from other entities granting the technical and human potential required to complete the contract. In accordance with the new regulations, in order to confirm that the requirements related to the participation in the proceedings are satisfied, the contractor can utilise the knowledge and experience, the technical potential, the human resources who can execute the contract and the financial resources of other entities, regardless of the legal nature of the relationships between the contractor and the entities. The contractor only needs to prove to the awarding entity that he possesses the required resources to execute the contract, by providing a written commitment of these entities confirming that they grant the contractor with the permission to use the necessary resources for the execution of the contract. In addition, the contractor can prove his adequate economic and financial situation by submitting documents different to the ones which are required by the awarding entity, provided that they sufficiently confirm that conditions outlined by the awarding entity have been fulfilled. This liberalisation of the requirements placed on the contractor does not apply to reserved contracts (reserved contracts are contracts where the awarding entity specifies in a notice that the tenders for the contract can originate only from contractors, whose workforce consists of more than 50% of handicapped persons).
Irena Skubiszak-Kalinowska, Ewa Wiktorowska: Maa nowelizacja prawa zamwie publicznych (Minor amendment to the public procurement law), http://www. finansepubliczne. pl/numery/styczen-2010/mala-nowelizacja-prawazamowien-publicznych.html, 10.02.2012 2 Also other changes have been introduced, however, as they do not relate to anti-crisis measures, thay are not taken into account in this article
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The afore-mentioned solution enables the contractors to benefit from the knowledge, experience, as well as from the technical and financial potential of any given partners without the need to create consortia.
2.2 Waiver of the obligatory prerequisite to demand a performance bond for contracts with value exceeding the EU thresholds; A performance bond serves to cover the claims for the non-performance or improper performance of a contract. Prior to the introduction of the minor amendment to the public procurement law, the awarding entity was obliged to demand a performance bond if the value of the contract exceeded the so-called EU thresholds. The current text specifies that the contractor can, but does not have to demand a performance bond of the contractor, regardless of the contracts value. Therefore, the contractors are only obliged to deposit a performance bond if such a demand was included by the awarding entity in the Terms of Reference. The waiver of the obligatory prerequisite to demand a performance bond limits the burden on the contractors who carry out public procurement contracts, and in the event that the awarding entities adopt this waiver across the board, it will certainly ease the financial troubles experienced by the public procurement contractors due to the financial crisis. If the awarding entity exercises his right to demand a performance bond, this security will only serve to cover the claims for the non-performance or improper performance of a contract. The previous legal status allowed the awarding party to use the amount deposited as a performance bond to cover any of his warranty claims. In addition, the current solution releases the contractors financial means before the end of the warranty period. The statutory warranty claims made by the awarding party are secured through the payment of a deposit which does not exceed 30% of the security value. The current structure of the performance bond system which is obligatory and does not include the warranty period, seems to be a solution which in many instances will ensure the financial liquidity of the contractors. Nonetheless, in the case of high-risk contracts, the awarding parties will surely still benefit from the possibility to demand a performance bond, in order to protect their claims. The decision on this matter will, however, have a voluntary nature and will be dependent on an individual risk assessment.
2.3. Immediate return of deposits to the contractors, whose tenders have not been selected According to the laws which were in force before the introduction of the minor amendment, the bidders whose tenders have not been selected, had their deposits returned only after the public procurement contract was concluded.
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In line with the currently valid public procurement law, the awarding party is obliged to return the deposits to all the contractors immediately after the most advantageous tender is chosen or after the tender proceedings are cancelled3. This measure allows the businesses to retrieve their frozen assets more quickly.
2.4. The possibility to grant advances against the execution of a contract A solution which is new to the Polish public procurement system is the possibility to pay the contractors advances against the execution of a public contract. The awarding entity can presently grant advances against the execution of a contract, if such a measure is specified in the public procurement notice or in the Terms of Reference. According to the currently valid public procurement law, the advances can be granted if one of the following conditions is met: 1) The contract is being financed with the participation of: means coming from the European Union budget, means which are not-returnable and form a part of aid provided by the member countries of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), means which are not-returnable and different from the ones above and come from foreign sources. 2) The subject of the contract is construction works. The contractor can receive a few advances against the performance of a specific contract, provided that he has carried out the contract in regards to the value of the previously granted advances. The awarding party may demand security for the advance. Security is absolutely mandatory if the expected value of the advances exceeds 20% of the contractors remuneration.
3. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ANTI-CRISIS MEASURES FOR THE PUBLIC PROCUREMENT MARKET IN THE SECTOR OF CONSTRUCTION WORKS
The admissibility to use the resources of third parties by the bidder to satisfy the requirements related to the participation in the proceedings and the waiver of the obligatory prerequisite to demand a performance bond for contracts with value exceeding the EU thresholds are regulations removing the legal obstacles which are difficult to overcome by many national contractors of construction works. The eradication of these obstacles should
The exception applies to a contractor whose tender has been chosen or to contractors who did not submit their declarations, documents or power of attorney documents in response to a request of the awarding entity, unless they can prove that this was due to resons beyond their control.
3
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translate into an increased number of Polish construction companies bidding for large attractive public contracts, which in turn will lead to their chances in competitive proceedings to be increased. Nonetheless, the statistics describing the operation of the Polish public procurement market do not prove that the relaxation of the legal requirements relating to public contracts for construction works actually did cause an increase in the number of tenders which are submitted in a single proceeding. Looking at the data from 20082010, which is included in table 1, it can be said than an average number of construction works contractors bidding for one order was the highest in 2009 when the new regulations had not yet been introduced, and not in 2010, just after their introduction. It can be noted, however, that in 2010 there was an increase in the advantage of the average number of bidders interested in contracts with values exceeding the EU thresholds over the average number of bidders interested in contracts with lower values. contracts over 14 000 but below EU thresholds 3.05 4.16 3.76 contracts above EU thresholds 3.95 5.95 5.63
year 2008 2009 2010
Tab. 1. The average number of submitted tenders for construction works in one proceeding Source: Own work on the basis of Reports from the Functioning of the Public Procurement System in 2005 2011, www.uzp.gov.pl,
The immediate return of the deposits to the contractors whose tenders have not been selected and the possibility to grant advances against the execution of a contract should be beneficial to the financial situation of construction companies, especially in this time of crisis. The companies whose tenders have been rejected can strive to be awarded other contracts, if they have their deposits released earlier. The possibility of using the advances is vital to the maintenance of financial liquidity of the construction works contractors, while at the same time protecting the awarding entity from the effects of insolvency of the contractor as part of the public contract proceedings. It is particularly important in the current situation, in which the contractors have limited opportunities to obtain financial support for the contracts which they are carrying out. Allowing the advances to finance construction works can positively effect the financial situation of the contractors and increase the competitiveness of the tenders during individual proceedings. However, in the first two years after the new regulations were introduced very few awarding entities decided to grant advances. The details describing the scope of this issue are presented in table 2.
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Contract type
construction works deliveries services Total
Percentage in Number of the total proceedings number of proceedings 2010 279 0.17% 168 0.10% 303 0.19% 750 0.46%
Percentage Number of in the total proceedings number of proceedings 2011 205 0.12% 134 0.09% 292 0.18% 620 0.39%
Tab. 2. Proceedings which take payment of advances into account (contracts over 14 000 but below the EU thresholds) Source: The Public Information Bulletin of the Public Procurement Office, no. 12/2010; 01.01.201031.12.2011
4. CONCLUSION It is difficult to unequivocally assess the impact of the introduced afore-mentioned legal solutions on the Polish public procurement market. We do not know what the condition of the market would be if those changes had not been introduced. Taking into consideration the statistics described in the article, it can be said that the amendments to the public procurement law did not result in any considerable changes in the first year after its introduction, in the behaviour of the Polish public procurement market participants dealing with construction works or to the situation of its participants. The expected increase in the number of tenders taking part in tender proceedings did not take place. The awarding entities very rarely exercised their right to grant advances. The monitoring of the market over the next few years may make apparent positive consequences of the new regulations. A lot depends on how the opportunities created by them are utilised.
REFERENCES
Irena Skubiszak-Kalinowska, Ewa Wiktorowska: Maa nowelizacja prawa zamwie publicznych (Minor amendment to the public procurement law), http://www.finansepubliczne.pl/numery/styczen-2010/malanowelizacja-prawa-zamowien-publicznych.html, 10.02.2012 [Periodical Public Information Bulletins of the Public Procurement Office, ( 01.031.12. 20072010)] Reports of the Public Procurement Office on the functioning of the public procurement system in 2005 2011, www.uzp.gov.pl The Act of 29 January 2004. Public Procurement Law, with further amendments. The Act of 5 November 2009 on the amendment of the Public Procurement Act and the Act on Court Costs in Civil Matters (Journal of Laws, Dz. U. No. 206, item 1591).
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AN INVESTIGATION TO THE CONCESSION PERIOD LENGTH DETERMINATION OF BOT PROJECT

K. C. Lam, C. Y. Yu City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong S.A.R., bckclam@cityu.edu.hk, chenyunyu3@alumni.cityu.edu.hk
Abstract The length of the concession period of Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) projects directly affects the investors and the concerned governments interests, such as the financial returns and the related risks. A focus on the concession period determination leads to an overview of recent advances as well as the mathematical models. This research highlights some strengths and weaknesses of the approaches applied by previous researchers, together with the variables affecting the concession period. These factors are clustered into NPV-related, Riskrelated, and CSFs (critical success factors)-related variables. Then a Monte Carlo-based simulation model is proposed. Finally, the potential of setting up a Decision Support System is discussed. The final decision support system integrates the traffic flow prediction model and the toll fee adjustment system. It is expected to assist the decision making process of concession period determination in BOT projects. Keywords: Concession Period Length Determination (CPLD), Decision Support System, and Monte Carlo Simulation.
1. INTRODUCTION
Identifying the length of the concession period in a transportation project under a BuildOperate-Transfer (BOT) contract has received much attention in recent years. In a BOT project, the concession period defines the time span in which the private investor has the right to commercially operate the facility or service, before it is transferred back to the government (Ozdoganm and Birgonul, 2000). A concession period is vital to the success of a BOT contract, due to it directly affecting both the involved government and investors interests and risks, which offer significant economic and social benefits. A reasonable lengthy concession period can help to alleviate the financial risk, thus the revenues, which are used as the main source of security for repaying the initial investment or debts, can be generated as expected. Meanwhile, an accurate prediction of the concession period can avoid continuous fluctuations in the service fee, as the concessionaires may increase the service fee if there is a too short concession period, so that they can reach their expected investment returns within the operation period. Furthermore, an excessively lengthy concession period
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could mean a loss in public interest, especially when the facility reaches the peak of its economic life towards the expiration of the concession period. There are various research works concentrated on BOT, most of them are concerned about the risk factors involved in the BOT project or the critical success factors (CSFs) for winning a BOT contract, but less in identifying the concession period. However, these literatures can contribute to the determination of the input variables of the concession model. Apart from that, there are some research works concerned about the concession period, such as financial evaluation techniques like cost-benefit analysis, net present value (NPV), NPV-atrisk, public sector comparator. These methods more or less have some drawbacks, hence the researcher can propose a more advanced model based on the previous approaches. The research was initiated with objectives of: (a) Studying and comparing different approaches for the determination of the concession period length; (b) Identifying a relatively better approach and highlighting the corresponding limitation for improvements; (c) proposing a more desirable model for concession period determination. The scope of the overall study will be narrowed down to focus on BOT projects of transportation system. The examining of the adequacy of the length of the concession period, is not only for identifying a length, but also involves the consideration of various factors affecting the length. This paper will provide a holistic research towards to the BOT project concession period problem. And its expected that the model proposed in this research can assist the decision-making process of either the private investor or concerned government.
2. GENERAL ASPECTS OF THE CONCESSION PERIOD OF BOT PROJECT

Table 1 and 2 show some BOT projects in Hong Kong and the world respectively. From table 1, we can see that the concession periods of the five tunnel projects are fixed to 30 years. But in table 2, the lengths of the concession period are different. Whats the factors affecting the period length, and is this period the most desirable one for both the government and the investor? Its expected that all of these question can be well answered after this research. Traffic design capacity (v/d) CHT 90,000 EHC 90,000 TCT 90,000 WHC 135,000 R3(CPS) 135,000 Project Name Planned construction period (months) 47 42 37 48 38 Actual construction period (months) 36 37.5 34 44 38 Concession period (years) 30 30 30 30 30 Construction start date Opening date
09/69 07/08/86 11/07/88 02/08/93 31/05/95
08/72 21/09/89 01/06/91 01/04/97 30/07/98
CHT: Cross Harbor Tunnel; EHC: Eastern Harbor Crossing; TCT: Tates Cairn Tunnel; WHC: Western Harbor Crossing; R3 (CPS): Route 3 Country Park Section
Table 1 BOT tunnel projects in Hong Kong (Zhang and Kuma, 2001)
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Country Australia China Malaysia England Thailand Thailand France
Project Sydney Tunnel Shajiao power plan North-South Expressway Dartford Bridge Second Stage Expressway Bangkok Skytrain Channel Tunnel
Cost of project (U.S.$) 550,000,000 517,000,000 1.8 billion 310,000,000 880,000,000 1.6 billion 12 billion
Concession Period (number of (years) years) 35 19872022 10 19871997 30 20 maximum 30 30 55 19882018 19882008 19882018 19872042
Table 2 Some BOT projects in the world
Before going to a further step of research, a review should be conducted for the factors affecting the BOT project concession period. Basically, these factors can be clustered into several categories, they are NPV-related variables, risk-related variables, and CSFs-related variables. Amongst the research studies published, the author found that the financial
factor is ranked as the most significant, as this factor is given the largest amount of support in the literature. Hence, in this research, focus will be put on the financial aspect of the target project. Since the financial indicator is the most telling tool to evaluate project success, the model developed in this research was developed based on the financial aspect. Focus was put on the factors related to the NPV (derived from the calculation equation of net present value), namely: interest rate (I), inflation rate (Inf), income of different period (It), cost of different period (Ct), Investors expected return rate (R), and Investors capital investment (Ic). The factor of It mainly refers to the traffic flow and toll fee. Thus, the main variables for concession period length determination are identified as: Traffic flow, Toll fee, Cost, Interest rate, Inflation rate, Investors expected return rate, Investors capital investment.
3. PREVIOUS APPROACHES AND MODELS FOR CONCESSION PERIOD DETERMINATION

Ye and Tiong (2000; 2003) As one of commonly used investment evaluation method, NPV-at-risk method (Ye and Tiong 2000) is formed by the combination of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and mean-variance methods. Two hypothetical studies of Ye and Tiongs research show that this method can overcome some problems (like deal with the high levels of financial, political, and market risks) inherent in other methods, such as benefit-cost analysis,
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payback period, average accounting rate of return, the net present value (NPV), and he internal rate of return (IRR) methods. Ye and Tiong (2003) pointed out the view that apart from the determination of period length, the design of concession period also involves the period structure design (two-period and single-period) and the incentive schemes (with incentive and without incentive). The effectiveness of different concession period designs were discussed and simulated in this paper. The results show that the choice of design is based on risk-return trade-off of the contracting parties. Shen et al. (2002; 2007); Shen and Wu, 2005 Shen et al. (2002) developed an alternative concession model for BOT projects, whereby the basic interests of the both sides can be protected. The objective function of the model is to identify an optimal length of the concession period as well as a proper range for its fluctuation. However, the model was overshadowed by risk and uncertainties: interest rate, inflation, cost and revenue; an overly optimistic estimation could make the return never be realized during the agreed concession period. Shen and Wu (2005) extended the BOT concession model by establishing a risk concession model. The impact of risk factors has been considered into the input of the model Based on their previous research, Shen et al. (2007) improved the concession model to a new method by using bargaining-game theory. However, it can not provide a specific time span for concessionary. Zhang and AbouRizk, 2006 Zhang and AbouRizk (2006) propose a methodology based on a winwin principle for parties involved. Simulation techniques are employed in measuring and evaluating construction and economic uncertainties and risks. However, there is no real data (case study) for verifying the model. Ng et al. (2007a; b) Ng et al. (2007a) proposed a simulation model which aims to assist the public partner to determine an optimal concession period. In the simulation model, the construction period, discount rate, and toll tariff regime are regarded as deterministic parameters, while the cost, operation revenue and income are uncertain parameters. As the focus was put on the desirable return, the toll/tariff regime and the expected internal return rate can be established as the input parameters of the model. For cost and revenue, they were simulated in the model. But limited risk factors were considered in this research, and it did not deal with the qualitative criteria and linguistic variables. Ng et al. (2007b) improved the simulation model based on the expected investment and tariff regime. And a fuzzy multi-objective decision model was introduced to trade-off the
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associated three concession items. However, it may not easy for decision-makers to accurately predict the risk factors affecting the uncertain parameter; meanwhile, there is no clear method for determining the weighting that each concession item contributes to the evaluation.
4. PROPOSED MODEL
In this research, the major objective is to obtain an optimal concession period length. The private sector prefers to sign a contract with a longer concession period as more profit can be made, but the government is likely to shorten the concession period to a reasonable length, so as to guaranty the public interest. Thus the developed concession period model does not mean to achieve the highest profit for any side; rather it means to achieve a balance between the two extreme sides within the same decision-making process.
Objective functions and mathematical algorithms of the model The Net Present Value (NPV) of both the government and private sectors should firstly be identified. Then the objective function of the concession period model is developed based on a balance of these two NPVs. (1) Net Present Value The Net Present Value (NPV) method is usually used to assist the decision-making process in financial investment. It uses cash flows rather than the accounting project, and considers both the amount and the timing of the project cash flow. Regarding the calculation equation of Net Preset Value (NPV):
NPV =
t =1
NPVt =
(1+ r )
t =1
( It C t )
t
the NPV of both the government and private sectors can be expressed as:
NPVg = [Net present value of the government] NPVi =
t =Tc + 1
NPV
Tf
= NPV(f) 0 (1)*
t =1
Tc
NPVt =
(1+ r)
t =1
Tc
( It C t )
t
I c R (2)*
[Net present value of the private sectors]

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* In equation 1, at the time of Tf, NPV(f)=0. After Tf, the government can not make profit from the project and even sustain loss from the project. The government just requires that the NPV should be no less than the value of zero. In equation 2, Tc refers to the time the investor can obtain what they expected. Before that, they can not make enough profit. The Tc must be long enough to cover the initial investment (IcR) of private sectors. Where NPV = the accumulated net present value during the concession period; NPVg = the governments net present value during the concession period; NPVi = the investors net present value during the concession period; NPVt = the net present value generated in year t; Tc= the length of construction period of BOT contract; Tf = the project reaches the peak of its economic life; It= income in year t; Ct= costs in year t; Ic= investors capital investment; R= investors expected return rate from capital investment. (2) Objective function After balancing the equations of (1) and (2), the basic interests of both sides can be protected. Thus the objective function f(t) of the concession period model can be expressed as:
' ' Tc +To Tc Tc +To ( I ot C ot ) ( I ct C ct ) To NPVi = NPVt = = Ic R t ( 1 + r )t t =1 t =1 ( 1 + r ) t =1
'
(3) (4 )
" Tc +To ( I C ot ) To NPVg = NPVt ot = ( 1 + r )t t =1
''
t =1
Tc
( I ct C ct ) ( 1 + r )t
To' To To''
Where To= operation period of BOT contract; Ict= income in year t during the construction period; Iot= income in year t during the operation period; Cct= costs in year t during the construction period; Cot= cost in year t during the operation period; r=discounted rate; Ic=investors capital investment. (3) Risk factors In equations (3) and (4), the discounted rate (r) takes into account the effects of both interest and inflation rates, which is calculated as: r=(1+I)/(1+Inf )1 (5) Where Inf denotes the inflation rate and I is the interest rate. Meanwhile, the income It is calculated as: It=VotToll (6)
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Previous research works (Shen et al., 2002, 2007) have set these factors as fixed items, however, there are some uncertain variables involved, such as risk factors. So the objective function of the proposed model can be revised as:
Tdynamic = f ( x ) V ,Toll ,C ,I , Inf (7)
There are seven factors involved in developing the model, namely, interest rate (I), inflation rate (Inf), traffic flow, toll fee, the cost of different period (Ct), Investors expected return rate (R), and Investors capital investment (Ic). From a survey conducted by the researcher (Yu, 2011), the score coefficients among these seven factors are not obvious, which means that these seven factors are more like independent factors. Thus the assumptions are made for each factor separately. The details are discussed as follows: Traffic flow (V1) and Toll fee (V2) In-depth investigations on these two factors are conducted by Yu (2011). Since these two factors affect the concession period length to a higher degree, the distribution of these factors is needed to build up the simulation model (Yu, 2011). Cost of different period (V3) The cost involved in the concession period is mainly the operating and administrative expenses (staffing costs, maintenance costs, utility expenses, insurance, promotion fee, professional fee, and depreciation), financial costs (interest on bank loans and interest on shareholders loans), and tax provisions. The key factor affecting the cost change is the inflation rate, and thus the uncertain parameter involved in the cost item should be the same as the inflation rate. Inflation rate (V4) Inflation rate is the rate of price increases measured in terms of an increase in the cost of living index in the country. One of the most well-known measures of Inflation is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures consumer prices. A case in an international city of Hong Kong was taken as an example. It is clearly shown that the inflation rate changes dramatically every year without a fixed rule to follow. Neither a prediction nor simulation can generate inflation with high accuracy. Thus in this research, the influential factors of the Inflation rate are not taken into consideration. Instead, the actual value of this factor will be collected and used for modeling. Interest rate (V5) The variables of Inflation rate and Interest rate have a high relationship with each other. From the pilot survey conducted by Yu (2011), the correlation coefficient value between the two variables is 0.898, which is the highest value in the correlation matrix. Hence, the investigation of Interest rate will be the same for Inflation rate. In this research, the
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influential factors of the Interest rate are not taken into consideration. Instead, the actual value of this factor is collected and used for modeling. Investors expected return rate (V6) and Investors capital investment (V7) They are mainly related to the private investors expectation. It is pre-determined by the investors. Usually, a percentage of 15% to 25% is given as the return rate. And for the factor of Investors capital investment (Ic), it equals the value of cost. Hence, the distribution of these two factors is not considered in the simulation model.
5. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM

This research aims to build a DSS for the CPLD problem of a transportation project under a BOT contract. Since the output is greatly affected by the subjective influential factors, the DSS will be built with the practical attributes of the influential factors of the concession period length. The framework of the research process is shown in Figure 1, the details are discussed as follows: In the proposed DSS, three tiers were integrated. In the first tier of the system, the selection, classifications, and ranking of the influential factors were involved; in the second tier of the system, a CPLD model and two sub-models (traffic flow and toll fee prediction) were developed. In the third tier of the system, a Variable Evaluation System was constructed, and the variables were tested by the observation of the results that change consequent upon different distributions of the variables. The main content of the three tiers are described as follows:
I. First tier of the system
In the first tier of the proposed research, the selection, classification and ranking of the influential variables were involved. The variables included main variables for CPLD, and subvariables for traffic flow and toll fee. The most significant main variables were identified based on an examination of the previous research studies together with a pilot survey, which was analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Under the main variables, the subvariables were selected based on an extensive review of the literature sources and Survey (PCA was applied for analysis). Then a 5-point scale and Entropy Technique based ranking method was employed for giving priority to these subjective sub-variables. The variable set I (main variables) was used for the modeling of CPLD, whilst both the variable set II (subvariables) and III (weighted sub-variables) were used as the independents for the prediction modeling of traffic flow and toll fee.
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DSS for CPLD Develop the influential factors for Concession period length Tier one Pilot survey + PCA method
Main variables 1.Traffic flow 2.Toll fee 3.Cost 4.Interest rate 5.Inflation
Sub-variables 13 variables for traffic flow & 9 variables for toll fee
13 variables for traffic flow & 9 variables for toll fee
Verified the proposed models by three case studies
Prediction methods: ANN+SVM+MKL
Prediction models for traffic flow and toll fee
Predicted value and distribution of traffic flow and toll fee Variable testing model Simulation method: Monte Carlo Overall model for CPLD The importance degree of different variables Distribution and Confidence interval of predicted concession period length
Tier two
Tier three
Final decision-making for CPLD
Notes: DSS-decision support system; CPLD-concession period length determination; PCA-principle component analysis; ANN-artificial neural network; SVM-support vector machine; MKL-multiple kernel learning
Figure 1 Framework of the research
II. Second tier of the system
The second tier includes the CPLD model and two sub-models (traffic flow and toll fee prediction). For the sub-models, the aims are to set up quantitative models for the prediction of two main variables of the concession period, that is traffic flow and toll fee. Based on the sub-variables and weighted sub-variables determined above, a Kernel learning based decision support model was designed and constructed, with the sub-variables (weighted subvariables) and the traffic flow/toll fee as the input and output variables respectively. The predictive capacity of Multiple Kernel Learning was compared with Support Vector Machine
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Output
Process
Different sets of input variables (with/without weighting) + Different distribution of a same set of variables
Input
5-point scale + Entropy Technique
Weighted subvariables
and Artificial Neural Network. Different training results were obtained and compared, consequent upon different input variables (sub-variables or weighted sub-variables) and different parameter settings (different input value of parameter C, g, and p). With the selected and weighted main variables as input variables, a simulation method-based model was applied for CPLD. In this proposed model, the distribution of the input variables were considered so as to obtain the confidence intervals of the predicted concession period.
III. Third tier of the system
A Variable Evaluation System was developed in this tier. After the prediction models for Traffic flow and Toll fee and simulation method-based model for concession period length determination were built up, the distribution of the input variables were changed, and thus different outcomes could be obtained and compared, so as to determine the degree of the input variable in the modeling process. Three case studies were carried out to verify and validate the developed overall and submodels. Two datasets of transportation projects in Hong Kong were collected for verification of the two sub-models (prediction models for Traffic flow and Toll fee). A simulated dataset of a transportation project was employed for training and testing the model for concession period length determination (CPLD). The experimental results show that, compared with the existing methods of CPLD, the proposed method can provide the government with a prediction of the optimal concession period with higher accuracy and a small error range. Thus the Decision Support System (DSS) was developed, and it is expected that the proposed DSS can assist the decision-making process of CPLD, as well as the long-term traffic flow and toll fee prediction, and finally contribute both theoretical and practical knowledge for academics and practitioners in the field.
6. CONCLUSION
Different approaches and models for determination of the concession period of BOT projects are reviewed in this research. Limitations are highlighted for each advance. Meanwhile, variables affecting the period are discussed and classified into three categories: NPV-related, Risk-related, and CSFs-related variables. Based on the previous research works, a new model is proposed in this research. It takes those discussed variables into account, and set up the model based on the kernel learning algorithm. Finally, the feasibility of the model is discussed by building a Decision Support System. It is expected to assist the decision making process of concession period determination. However, there is less real data employed in the BOT concession period research, either in the previous or this study. The proposed model as well as the whole DSS should be verified in further study by real case studies.
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REFERENCES
Ng S T, Xie J Z, Cheung Y K and Jefferies M (2007a). A simulated model for optimizing the concession period of public-private partnerships schemes. International Journal of Project Management 25: 791798. Ng S T, Xie J Z, Skitmore M and Cheung Y K (2007b). A fuzzy simulation model for evaluating the concession items of public-private partnership schemes. Automation in Construction 17: 2229. Ozdoganm I D and Birgonul M T (2000). A decision support framework for project sponsors in the planning stage of Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) projects. Construction Management and Economics 18: 343353. Shen L Y and Wu Y Z (2005). Risk concession model for Build/Operate/Transfer Contract Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 131(2): 211220. Shen L Y and Li Q M (2000). Decision-making model for concession period in BOT contract infrastructure project. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management 14(1): 4347. Shen L Y, Bao H J and Lu W S (2007). Using bargaining-game theory for negotiating concession period for BOT-type contract. Journal of construction engineering and management 133(5): 385392. Shen L Y, Li H and Li Q M (2002). Alternative concession model for build operate transfer contract projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 128(4): 32630. Ye S and Tiong R L K (2000). NPV-at-risk method in infrastructure project investment evaluation. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 126(3): 227233. Ye S and Tiong R L K (2003). The effect of concession period design on completion risk management of BOT contracts. Construction Management and Economics 21(5): 471482. Yu C Y (2011). A Decision Support System for the Determination of Concession Period in Transportation Project under Build-Operate-Transfer Contract. PhD thesis, City University of Hong Kong. Zhang X Q and AbouRizk S M (2006). Determining a reasonable concession period for private sector provision of public works and services. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineers 33(5): 622631. Zhang X Q, Kumaraswamy M M, Zheng W and Palaneeswaran E (2002). Concessionaire selection for BuildOperate-Transfer tunnel projects in Hong Kong. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 128(2): 155 163.
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SOME NOTES ON THE DEFINITION OF RISK AND THE PREDICTABILITY OF RISKS

Gza Lmer, Dr. University of Debrecen, Faculty of Engineering 4028 Debrecen, temet utca 24. glamer@eng.unideb.hu
Abstract This presentation deals with the definition of risk and the predictability of risks. Firstly we discuss the concept of risk then we overview the issues of measurement, and discretion of it. Within the two topics we deal with the following matters. The definition of risk is organised around certainty and uncertainty, the everyday notion of risk, and risk-related concepts. We refer to the notion of risk used by literature in the economy. We deal with risk and risk management. Risk as a term (in Hungarian) is associated with dice games. This gives us a good opportunity to take a look at the view itself, we observe playing dice as the action and as the behaviour and we examine the subject of the endangering. Thereafter it is possible to observe what we take risk, and we examine the consequence of the occurrence of risk. So the following questions can be formulated: is the risk measurable, what is the chance of the occurrence. We extend the measurement to what we take risks, and to what is the effect of occurrence. At the same time a new question emerges; is it possible to anticipate the occurrence of risks. During the investigation we emphasise three thoughts. The first is that in recent years the risk and the effect of the risk have been viewed differently, the avoided risk has gained a new interpretation. The second is that the entry of a firm into the market potentially includes the risk of the collapse of the market. The third is that we take into consideration Benoit Mandelbroits results of the scientific achievements we claim the risk cannot be predicted, so the topic of risk should rethought from different points of view. Keywords: risk, measurement of risk, predictability of risks, change of attitude to risk
1. INTRODUCTION: DICING
When playing dice games, the extent of risk taking the outcome of things, from the aspect of mathematics can (to some extent) be determined in advance; therefore, various probabilities can be assigned to each outcome. The result of dicing is visible, that is, one side of the die will be on top. The probability that the die stops rolling with a particular side on top is 1/6. During dicing, players agree on the rules of the game, such as what the conditions are, which player wins, which player loses. In most cases, players win only if they roll a certain number usually six or if the sum of the two dice from one roll is higher than that
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of the other player. In dicing, it is not possible to weigh or choose between options, apart from deciding whether or not to participate in the game. It is not possible to influence the outcome during dicing: once the die is rolled, players trust themselves to blind chance. Whether the die is loaded or not is important only from the aspect of whether we correctly know the distribution of the occurrence of events. If preliminary examinations are performed, the goal is to determine the probabilities as accurately as possible. It should be pointed out that the probabilities, i.e. the expected values of events, will not provide the actual occurrence values. Instead, if the experiment is performed enough times, the measured values will be close to the expected values. There is the possibility of events whose probability, i.e. their likelihood of occurring, is rather low and there is also the possibility of a scenario that the actual event is far from the expected value even after numerous repetitions. Based on the above, dicing, as the mathematical model of events with different outcomes, can only be used in risk modelling in economic processes if all resulting events can be determined, a certain probability can be assigned to each resulting event, the sum of probabilities is 1. If the subject of the experiment is not dicing and/or the examination is not aimed at the economic events which meet the above conditions, it may not be possible to determine all resulting events and/or the probability of each event in advance. Gold-washing or the locating of thermal energy reservoirs in geothermal system projects are good examples. At the same time, we feel and we have even observed that risk could still be part of the ongoing process: it is still possible that the potential events take a turn for the worse compared to the expected outcome. For this reason, we consider the concept of risk to be independent from whether or not we know all resulting alternatives and also from whether or not we can assign a certain probability to each resulting alternative. In this case, the question arises as to whether risk can be managed and if yes, then how? Since risk in itself is interpreted in a way that it is a chance or, more specifically, the chance of occurrence of an event which has an unfavourable outcome from the aspect of a process (an enterprise), the management of risk depends on what we put at risk. The aim of this study is to determine what can be put at risk as a result of a risk that occurs during an economic process while it also seeks the best reaction to such an occurrence.
2. WHAT WE PUT AT RISK, OR THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE OCCURRENCE OF RISK

If risk is observed, mention has also to be made about what we risk. At the beginning of the game of dice it is obvious that players agree on what they put to the venture, that is, what they risk during the game (usually before the game, i.e. before rolling the dices). In the case of an economic process, it is not obvious what we risk. If we only consider one side of the risk, i.e. risk that means that economic processes will not happen the way they were planned,
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it is not clear whether or not we can lose. Even if we do, what do we lose? In order to answer this question, it has to be clarified why we launch an economic process. The answer seems to be obvious: an economic process is launched in order to gain profit. In this study, the thing we put at risk is the value expressed in money which is an index number widely used in economic processes. There is no doubt that there are other index numbers which can be used to measure risk, but this study only deals with the risks that can be connected to dates marking the occurrences and changes of financial states or those which can be expressed in money. Profit is interpreted as the difference between the income and the investments and expenditures related to the launching and maintenance of the enterprise. This concept shows what can be put at risk: we can determine the financial expectations and their possible non-occurrence can be regarded as the thing that we risk. In Figure 1, K shows the sum against time of investments and expenditures spent on the launching and maintenance of the enterprise. This curve, similarly to all others curves, is already cumulated and its value shows the sum of investments until the optional point of time marked with t. (This means that curves increase monotonously and they can only have a horizontal tangent.) Formally, investments and expenditures are described by a discrete function, but a continuous function is used for the sake of lucidity.
Figure 1: Value time correlation
Figure 1 also shows some curves which represent the incomes of the enterprise. The curves describing incomes can be classified into three large groups. The first group containts the curves that have values after they reach the expense curve, which means that there is profit in the enterprise. The third group contains the curves that never reach the expense curve and their values are always below this curve; therefore, there is never any profit in the enterprise. The second group contains the curves that are above the expense curve for a
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while and then fall below the expense curve again. This means that the enterprise has periods of both profitability and unprofitability. The curves in the first group intersect curve K once and remain above it at all times. This means that income is higher than the expenses; therefore, the enterprise is always profitable. The difference between the sums of expenditures and income could increase (curve 1.a), it could be constant (curve 1.b) or the income can fit to the expenditure curve from above (curve 1.c). The curves in the third group never intersect curve K and are always below it. This means that the income never reaches the expenditures, that is the enterprise always shows a deficit. The difference between income and expenditures could decrease and the income curve could finally fit to the the expenditure curve from below (curve 3.a), it can be constant (curve 3.b) or the difference can also increase. This could happen in a way that there is income (curve 3.c) or that there is no income at all (curve 3.d). The basic characteristic of the curves in the second group is that they intersect curve K (at least) twice. A typical example for such case is that there is a period when income is higher than expenditures, i.e. the enterprise is profitable in this interval. At the same time, the enterprise is not profitable beyond this period and starts to show a deficit. In general, the curves which intersect curve K in pairs and then have a negative slope (curves 2.a, 2.c and 2.e) could show a profit only for a short while, but they will eventually be similar to the third group of curves and they usually show a deficit. Similarly, the curves which intersect curve K an odd number of times then run upwards (curves 2.b, 2.d and 2.f) show a profit after an initial fluctuating section and will eventually be similar to the first group of curves. Finally, the case when the sum of incomes fluctuates around the sum of expenditures and converges with them is also considered to belong to the second group (curve 2.g). If we classify the relationships between the expense and income curves and formulate different scenarios, it is possible to determine what the investor puts at risk. The thing which is put at risk is independent of the concept of risk and the economic processes. As a matter of fact, it depends on how we look at it and whether we consider it to be a risk or something else. The enterprise is profitable in the case of the first group of curves. It depends on our approach as to what we consider to be unfavourable if the enterprise is profitable. The point of time from which the enterprise is profitable can be considered to be a possible risk. We can consider it to be a possible risk (from the financial aspect) if the enterprise does not reach the set goal achieving a given amount of profit within a given period e.g. if the company realises the profit outside this period and/or, less profit is realised and not the expected amount. (Theoretically, the fact that no profit is realised can also be regarded as a risk, as was described in the case of the second group of curves). Conceptually, these occurrences might as well be regarded as risks. However, it is plain common sense that if we make a profit, that is, if we realise a return on our investments and can make a living from it and even save some money, then we do not risk anything: we can live our life in peace, harmony and satisfaction. (It has to be noted that the theory of enterprises cannot incorporate this point! Similarly, we will not deal with this issue from this point onwards). Of the second group of curves, we firstly take a look at curves 2.a and 2.c. These curves show that there are given periods of time when the enterprise is profitable. It is clear that we cannot sit passively, as the enterprise will have to be wound up sooner or later since no profits are gained and further investments and/or expenditures are necessary. Therefore, an
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enterprise is planned for a limited period. Knowing this, we have to determine what we consider to be unfavourable. We can consider the point of time from which the enterprise starts to show either a profit or a deficit to be a possible risk. Even in this case, it can be regarded as a risk that the enterprise has to achieve the set aim there will be a period of deficit during which the enterprise has to be terminated (it has to be reorganised, wound up, or made profitable), although this expectation might not be met. In this case, we cannot sit passively because the enterprise can only be run for a limited amount of time and then a change of profile is necessary. Furthermore, if we do all of this, we will get back all invested capital and we might even realise some profit. Curves 2.b and 2.d show that there will be profit as was discussed in the case of the first group of curves. As regards these two curves, the point of time when the enterprise becomes profitable is affected by the extent of fluctuation around curve K. However, this study does not intend to go into this issue in detail. In the case of curve 2.g, (the financial balance of) the enterprise fluctuates around a state of equilibrium. Formally, the statements about curves 1.c and 3.a are valid. There is no profit in the case of the third group of curves. Formally, it could also be said that enterprises like this should not even be launched. At the same time, it also depends on ones attitude whether a company should be maintained long enough to realise a return on both the invested capital and the daily expenses (curve 3.a). Similarly, it is also possible that someone maintains an enterprise in which the daily expenses are covered after a while but there will never be a return on a certain part of the invested capital (curve 3.b); both versions will hereinafter be termed as self-supporting. (For example, if someone acquired the capital by means of inheritance, lottery or by an enormous amount of work, e.g. working for 12 hours a day for a certain period; in cases like this, maintaining the company could be a realistic option). In these cases, reaching the critical point of time (when the system becomes self-supporting) could be regarded as a risk. If neither the 3.a, nor the 3.b alternative can be accepted, then we physically risk the capital in the case of the third group of curves: the enterprise will not be able to produce any profit and it will also be unable to produce the invested capital: in this case, we risk the capital which the enterprise is unable to produce (curves 3.c and 3.d). Finally, attention must be drawn to the following. The model of enterprises which take products and services from the market and sell their own services and products on the market is a rough model of reality in a way that it models the market (or rather, it does not model it). Modelling the whole market is difficult from several aspects. Firstly, there are so many participants that is not possible to keep track of all of them numerically. Secondly, we do not have a clearly determinable algorithm as to how the participants of the market behave. In other words, we do not know how the participants react to the attitude of the market. People active on the market were thought to act rationally, moreover, they act on the basis of a clear attitude pattern, e.g. they usually act in their own interest while trying to reach or even maximise profit. As will be shown, this belief is false; the quickly changing prices of the market are determined by the random reaction of its participants. The passive modeling of the economic environment that is, its non-modelling does not make it possible to consider the attitude of the environment, i.e. the market more specifically, the alternative of a market collapse to be a question to be examined during the assessment of the risks of an enterprise. In other words, the launching of a new enterprise could risk the collapse of the whole market; therefore, not only the capital of this given
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enterprise, but also that of all other participants could be lost, thereby endangering the existence of the financial basis needed for self-subsistence. The fact that we cannot neglect the aspect of a market collapse is shown by the tragedy of common pastures and the regular monetary crises. Altogether, it can be concluded that one might risk the starting point of time of profitability, size of the profit, switch from profitability to deficit, starting point of time of switching from profitability to deficit, amount of deficit if the enterprise starts to show a deficit after a period of profitability, starting point of time of realising a return on investments, starting point of time of becoming self-supporting, capital loss needed for becoming self-supporting, amount of investments and expenditures before the launching or until the termination of the enterprise, market collapse.
3. CAN RISK BE MEASURED? MEASUREMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE

In our opinion, risk as a certain alternative cannot be measured. It cannot be measured in the sense that no measurement method can be used. In order to arrive at a conclusion about the measurement of risk, we have to recall what risk means: it is an alternative; moreover, the alternative of an unfavourable event. From this aspect, if something can be measured in relation to risk, it is mainly the probability of its occurrence. In order to determine the probability of the occurrence of an event, one has to know mainly the nature of processes. From the aspect of predictability, a process can be deterministic or stochastic, nonpredictable. We know a significart proportion of the processes around us well enough to conclude that they are non-deterministic and we also know that they are not stochastic. At the same time, it is known from the statistical processing of data that some of these processes can be well described with a power law: the number of events whose value falls in the prescribed interval during the process can be described with a power law. The phenomena which can be described with a power law are typically in the critical state, that is, a small change causes a significant change in the system (BUCHANAN (2004)): systems in a critical state that can be described with a power law (also) include the processes of the economic market, more specifically, the change in stocks and the products entering the market (the size and change of the value cannot be determined).
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Based on the above, the following general statements can be made about the measureability of risk. No risk is present in deterministic systems in the sense that the outcome of the whole process can be known in advance; therefore it is clear which parameters will contribute to which outcome. In other words, if one chooses the proper parameters, it can be achieved that no events with unfavourable outcome will occur. Furthermore, if no such combination of parameters can be set, the whole process will not even be launched. In stochastic systems, the probability of the occurrence of events with various among them, unfavourable outcomes is known; therefore, the probabilities of the outcomes of the whole process can be determined. If the probability values were obtained during the statistical evaluation of previous events (including force majeure events), the processes cannot be influenced in effect (independently of whether steps are made or not, force majeure does not depend on any human activity). If the occurrence was foreseen by means of a probability description due to a lack of information, it is possible to reduce the risk by increasing the amount of available information. The probability description is generally also used if one really faces unpredictable processes. However, in the case of unpredictable processes in which unpredictability is caused by the lack of information, we can either do a subjective estimation (we rely on our feelings or we simply revise the concept of probability), or we obtain the necessary information step by step. This latter action calls for investments and the risk is represented by the fact that the investment has to be terminated and the investments made until that time have to be written off on the basis of the obtained information. However, in the case of unpredictable processes in which unpredictability is caused by the nature of the process such as the change in market prices , one has to face the fact that these processes are impossible to predict. From the mathematical aspect, it does not matter what kind of measures are taken, as the nature of the process remains unpredictable.
4. IS IT POSSIBLE TO MEASURE WHAT WE RISK? MEASUREMENT OF THE IMPACT OF RISK OCCURRENCE

During dicing, it is obvious that the asset put at risk some property is measureable; therefore, there is a value which we assign to the property. (Generally, money is put at risk, thus the amount of this money is already the measured value itself.) In an economic process as described above , we can put the occurrence of an event at a given point of time at risk, as well as the size of profit or loss and the balance of the two. In order to do this, the delay of a certain point of time is usually converted into money with the consideration of the incurred costs (e.g. the costs of a loan). The change of the points of time cannot be measured, only the probability of their occurrence (can be estimated). Can the extent of profit and loss be measured? These two can be used jointly to measure the risk by multiplying the probability of the occurrence of the unfavourable event with the unrealised profits. This method is not an actual measurement either, since one of its elements cannot be measured, only estimated. The size of capital put at risk in proportion to the total capital could show whether there is a chance of launching a new business with the
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remaining capital once the enterprise takes a turn for the worse. However, this does not serve the purpose of measuring risk, but it is rather a start over type of index. The expected value is the index number of both the risk and the decision. Furthermore, if we multiply the quantified values of the possible outcomes with the associated (that is, the probability) occurrences, we get the expected value of income. This method was used by NEUMANN MORGENSTERN (1944) as the basic principle of their expected utility theory. This theory does not reflect the concept of expected value as defined in probability theory in the case of few elements, such as the comparison of a profitable and an unprofitable alternative. Its definition says that only one out of two alternatives will occur and the measured value profit/loss will never get close to the expected value, which is the sum of values weighed by probabilities as calculated on the basis of the expected utility theory. Therefore, the fundamental assumptions of our mathematical model will not be realised. The question arises whether it is logically grounded to use this theory? In our opinion, it is not. In conformity with this standpoint, we do not consider this combined method to be suitable for the measurement of the value put at risk and the logical substantiation of a decision if there are risks in the case of the comparison of a few alternatives. If there are somewhat more outcomes than a few, it is necessary to define a target function and a goal (looking for the minimum or maximum) from the aspect of the enterprise in order to carry out the mathematical modelling. (A good example for this was shown in the examination of the newsagents attitude in the SZENTPTERI (1980) monograph.)
5. RISK AND PREDICTABILITY

Most people expect that various impacts affect their consequences in a deterministic way and that some predictable and determinable regularities rule the world. Brownian motion and the quantum mechanism were the physical phenomena which shook the belief in determinism. Later, physical phenomena related to catastrophe theory and chaos showed the fact that there could be a series of events even in a deterministic system that cannot be predicted. Finally, they found events that as non-deterministic processes cannot be foreseen at all. In economic processes, it is the requirement of prescribability to be able to model the activity of the people (entrepreneurs, sellers and buyers in various markets) participating in the process. In order to do this, we have to assume that each person makes his/her decision on the basis of some (clearly defined) principle which we are aware of and are able to model mathematically. In general, economic-financial processes are described with the concepts of game theory. In this case, each process is interpreted as a game with a different result. We have to know all possible alternatives and which alternative can be assigned to which outcome, that is, the extent of profit and loss each participant can realise in the given state. Furthermore, it has to be assumed that this table of outcomes is known by all parties and that the table of
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outcomes is independent of the actual choice. Finally, it also has to be assumed that people follow a preference rule when optimising or even maximising their income and they act rationally during their decisions. (One of the mathematical formulations of this rule is the expected utility rule by NeumannMorgenstern.) Knowing the probability of the occurrence of each risk, decision criteria and decision algorithms can be set up, as with game theory. Usually, the question stands or falls on what kind of probability can be assigned to each event: we have to estimate the occurrence of events that are not only independent of nature, but they are the response function of a system whose attitude we plan to model (market, economic environment). We consider this latter to be governed by rationally thinking and acting people; therefore, the system itself is also rational (and as such, the invisible hand of the market keeps itself in a good condition; see the concept of A. Smith about the market). KINDLER (1989, 1991) surveys the assumptions related to rational decisions and their criticism (pp. 5261) in his work about decision theory. At the same time, the past 100 years, but especially the past 20 years warn us that this market and this economic environment is everything but rational and that it is not even predictable. Several assumptions were made concerning the predictability of economic processes. It was clear from the very beginning that each human decision should be regarded as an independent, random event. In order to perform mathematical predictability, it was necessary to know the market price distribution of each product and it was also necessary to describe the mathematical predictability of random processes. In 1900, Bachelier submitted a dissertation entitled Thorie de la spculation to the cole Normale Suprieure. In this dissertation, he examined the change of prices using mathematical methods. During the examination of prices, Bachelier used the so-called Brownian motion, a concept used in physical examinations. In order to do this, he had had to assume that prices change in small steps and randomly. Since the (market) data at that time suggested that prices in the lower and the upper range change very little, the change in prices seemed to have been well described by a bell-shaped curve. These two assumptions the random fluctuation with a Gaussian curve distribution made it possible to predict prices. In addition, the resulting curve produced smaller and bigger price jumps similar to those of the prices at the stock exchange. Bachelier was examining cotton prices. (See: BUCHANAN 2004 pp. 176177, MANDELBROT (1963) pp. 373, COOTNER (1964) pp. 1778). Mandelbrot (See MANDELBROT (1997), especially the studies E10E16 and E19E21) examined market prices using mathematical methods. His examinations were mostly based on Bacheliers assumption, although he also claimed (MANDELBROT (1963) p. 373) that Bacheliers assumption was mathematically verified by Mitchell in 1915, Olivier in 1926 and Mills in 1927. At the same time, the approximation of empirical data with a Gaussian curve had some inaccuracy, namely that the change of the second moment of the distribution was rather irregular during the the approximation of the data series with a Gaussian curve, mostly it did not converge to any value at all. For this reason, he used the L-stable distributions to process the data, as they suggested that the distribution functions which can be fitted to market data well described the data of market price changes and that the future data can also be predicted. During the examination of date, he used the related findings of Lvy and GNYEGYENKO KOLMOGOROV (1949). At the same time,
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MANDELBROT (1963) was not satisfied with the examination of a time series, but he also analysed different time scales and different price difference scales. During these examinations, he thought that price changes were better described by a power curve than a Gaussian curve (MANDELBROT (1963), especially Figure E14-5). The power curve, as an empirical law, drew attention to the fact that as opposed to Bachelier there is no specific value of price fluctuations (this would be reflected by the Gaussian curve which refers to price distribution), but there could be any small or large price changes. The power curve shows that a constant quantity ratio (the number of times that the chosen price change occurred) is assigned to the price difference which is constant in comparison with each other (e.g. 1, , , etc.). In other words, even if we had previously found a maximum price change step, we cannot exclude the appearance of an even higher step, but the probability of its occurrence is expected to be the lowest. In the process of the examination, there will be price changes larger than the previously observed one, although its proportion to the occurrence probability of the largest price difference measured until that point is the same as its proportion to the occurrence probability ratio of the preceding largest price steps. In itself, this discovery was significant: it showed that the previous distribution did not describe the data series with proper accuracy, while the new distribution reflects the distribution of data series with adequate correctness. At the same time, the new distribution also showed that the sets of data could have discrete characteristics in addition to their continuity characteristics (this leads to the concept of fractals). Furthermore, it was shown that the system is not in balance, but it is in the critical state. Systems in the critical state are typically unpredictable; therefore, there is no law which could describe the next state of the examined process (as described by BUCHANAN (2004) in common parlance). In the case of financial processes, several research findings show that the power law can be found in the fluctuation of market prices. Assuming only three market attitude types and the small-scale, random change of attitude, the computerised modelling of market participants as described by LUX, T. MARCHESI (1999) showed that the market prices change in the model in the same chaotic way as in the real market. In this context, it is logical to conclude that the change in market prices cannot be predicted; therefore, there is no such law which would describe the fluctuation of prices. The reason for this is the critical state of the system. At the same time, it can be prognosticated that if market price changes are kept under control in advance, random impacts will not necessarily disappear, but they will at least flatten out and the distribution of prices can be described in the short term by a thin-tailed distribution function resembling a bell-shaped curve. With this function, market processes can be predicted in the period during which the price range is controlled. Incidentally, the above controversy became obvious immediately after Mandelbrots research (1963!). Mandelbrot himself writes that immediately after the publication of his article in 1963, economists considered his work to be very important, so they elected him as a member of the successful economic researchers, but within a year this honour was already history and the economists reproached him with cutting the ground from beneath his economic predictions. (See MANDELBROT (1997), pp. 710.)
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REFERENCES
Buchanan, M. (2004): Itt s mindentt. Akkord Kiad, Budapest, 2004. (Ubiquity. The Science of History or Way The Word is Simpler Than We Think. Weidenfeld and Nicholson, 2000. Ford.: Seres Ivn) Cootner, P.H. (1964): The Random Character of Stock market Prices. Cambridge, University Press Gnyegyenko, B.V. Kolmogorov, A.N. (1949): Fggetlen valsznsgi vltozk sszegeinek hatreloszlsa. ( , 1949. Fordtotta Fldes I.). Akadmiai kiad Budapest Kindler J. (1989): Dntselmleti elfeltevsek kritikja. Doktori rtekezs, Budapest Kindler J. (1991) (szerk.): Fejezetek a dntselmletbl. Kzirat. Budapesti Kzgazdasgtudomnyi Egyetem, Budapest Lux, T. Marchesi, M. (1999): Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic Multi-agent Model of Financial Market. Nature, 397, pp. 498500 Mandelbrot, B.B. (1963): The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices. In: Mandelbrot, B.B. (1997) pp. 371418. First published: The Journal of Business, 36, 1963 pp. 394419) Mandelbrot, B.B. (1997): Fractals and Scaling in Finance. Discontinuity, Concentration, Risk. Selecta Volume E. Springer, New York Neumann, J. v Morgenstern, O. (1944): Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour. Princeton, N.J. Princeton University Press Szentpteri Sz-n (1980): Gazdasgi dntsek bizonytalansg esetn. Kzgazdasgi s Jogi Knyvkiad
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ANALYZING KOREAN BUILDING CONSTRUCTION MARKET RESPONSE TO THE APPLICATION OF PERFORMANCE WARRANTY CONTRACT USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS
Jeoung Hoon Lee Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, di5555@snu.ac.kr Moonseo Park, Hyun-Soo Lee, Sungjoo Hwang, Myoung Gy Moon Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, mspakr@snu.ac.kr, hyunsulee@snu.ac.kr, nkkt14@snu.ac.kr, mun11111@snu.ac.kr
Abstract As a dweller understands the quality of house increases, ways to deal with how dwellers respond to defects in buildings are being exercised by more aggressive demonstration of their rights. However, there is an increasing demand to reform the defect repair system because the legal clauses concerning defects are not organized systematically. This study examines the possibility of repairing the limits of the defect repair system by using system dynamics to analyze the introduction of a performance warranty contract system, which is being presented as one link to the standardization of capability-centered construction technology. The results of this study show that the introduction of this system in South Korea would contribute to a high theoretical understanding of the performance warranty contract system. Also, it can be used as a fundamental model for future research concerning the relationship with the defect repair system, which would undergo changes with the introduction of this new system Keywords: Performance Warranty Contract, Defect Repair Regulations, System Dynamics, Building Construction Market.
1. INTRODUCTION
Recent building construction is becoming more complex by combinations of various processes. Therefore, it is difficult to determine whose responsibilities are when defects of buildings, especially residential buildings, are found. To solve this problem, many countries have established defect repair regulations. However, these regulations are insufficient to respond effectively because occurrence reasons for defects repairs are diverse. Also, recent construction techniques and material have rapidly changed. Hence, it is hard to reflect this diversity in one regulation (A. Emin Aktan 2007).
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In the United States, in early 1990s, Federal Highway Administration(FHwA) had made a decision to allow warranty provisions to be included in construction contracts for items over which the contractor had responsibility and control (Bayraktar et al. 2004; Elizabeth 2009). The largest portion of performance warranty contract is contract for the performance features of the definition and defect repair period. Based on this, defects judgment is possible in clearer liability through the performance warranty contract. Recently, the Korean Government tries to implement the performance warranty contract in building construction to complement the existing regulations of the defects. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the current defect regulations based on the relationship between dwellers and construction companies. This paper carries out analysis on the current defect repair regulations focusing on the relationships between dwellers and construction companies. To support an analysis, a system dynamics model that enables effective analysis to generate modeling of the defect repair regulations is used.
2. PREVIOUS RESEARCH
2.1 Defect Repair Regulations in Korea Fig.1 shows that recent lawsuit related to the apartment building defect is over 600 cases. Also, relating lawsuit amount is almost $880 billion based on 2009.
Figure 1: Korea Construction Defect Repair Lawsuit
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Defect repair regulations in Korea are exist in Civil Code, Framework Act on The Construction Industry, Condominium Act etc. Each regulation has suggested specified defect repair solutions. However, these regulations are not presented in detail about defect repair criteria. Hence, if defect repair requests are occurred, most of the requests are absolutely rely on court decisions.
2.2 Performance Warranty Contract Performance warranty contract is guaranteed that contractors are accountable for the defect repair and replacement during a suggested period of time (Elizabeth 2009; Kim 2008). If the facilities in the pre-agreed level of performance are not satisfied in contract period, construction company shall perform the defect repairs by his own expenses. Therefore, initial quality and life cycle of buildings can be improved according to the contract.
2.3 System Dynamics System dynamics, after the development by Professor Forresterr, MIT, has become one of the most widely used analytic methods for industrial, economic, social, and environmental systems. One of the strong characteristics of system dynamics is the provision of dynamic methodologies to analyze complex nonlinear systems (Kwak 1995). Methods of system dynamics modeling expressions are to use arrows to indicate the impact levels between and among variables and they make mutual feedback loops in Table 1. Diagram
+ A B
Description When all other conditions are identical

B
Variable As increase(decrease) will increase(decrease) variable B Variable As increase(decrease) will decrease(increase) variable B
Critical time delay is to be included to satisfy the causal relationships between variable A and variable B
Flow
Defined as rates or flow that change stock in system Defined as stock or level as a variable saved as a system result
Table 1: System Dynamics Diagram (Sterman 2000)
S t ock
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3. SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

3.1 Dwellers House Defect Repair Conceptual Model Most of constructed house defects are found by dwellers. However, most of the dwellers do not have expert knowledge about defect repairs. Therefore, they judged its seriousness based on their Perceived House Value. As shown in Fig.2, Perceived House Value consists of quantitative variables and qualitative variables (quantitative variables: Current House Price in Market, Dwellers Purchased House Price, qualitative variables: Dwellers Expected Initial House Value, Dwellers House Quality Satisfaction, Companys house Quality in Market).
Current House Price in Market Dweller's Expected Dweller's Purchased Initial House Value House Price Dweller's Perceived House Value
Convert into Value Company's House Quality in Market
Dweller's House Quality Satisfaction
Figure 2: Dwellers Perceived House Value Structure Model
Fig.3 shows that a variable of Dwellers perceived #.of Defect Repair can be decided based on Average #.of Defect Repair (R1).For example, Average #.of Defect Repair is six. In this situation, Dwellers Perceived House Value could be calculated as one, Dwellers Perceived #.of Defect Repair is five. This number flows in Perception Rate and Dwellers House Quality Satisfactions standard. The calculated Dwellers House Quality Satisfaction affects Convert into Value. However, #.of House Defect Repair affects Companys House Quality Value in Market, and this in turn affects house price in market. For these reasons, dwellers are cautious about requests for defect repairs (B1). Dwellers Perceived House Value is also stimulating Dwellers Defect Repair Compensation and it influences on Lawsuit Ratio.
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Current House Price in Market Dweller's Expected Initial House Value Dweller's Perceived House Value
Convert into Value -
+ Dweller's Perceived #.of Defect Repair Average #.of Defect Repair
R1 Company's House Quality Value in Market +
"Dwellr's House Quality Convert into Value" Dweller's House Quality Satisfaction "Word of Mouth effect to dweller" B1
Word of Mouth +
Average Defect Repair Accept ratio + +
+ Dweller's Defect Repair Compansation
+ Perception Rate
#.of House Defect Repair
Completed Rate +
Company's Expected Compensation Cost
Lawsuit Rate + Possibility of Agreement + Lawsuit expenses #.of lawsuit Defect repair -
Defect Repair Regulations Reliability + + Soultion Rate + Average Duration for a issue
Dweller's Expected Compensation Cost
Figure 3: Dwellers Defect Repair Lawsuit Effect Model
3.2 Companys House Defect Repair Conceptual Model Generally, in Korea, construction companies have to deposit the Defect Repair Deposit at bank. The amount of deposit is calculated based on defect repair regulations. If dweller do not request in defect liability period called a defect repair period (Young-Jun Cho 2006), some of deposit can be returned to companies. Accordingly, companies do not have extra expenses relating to defect repairs (Fig.4).
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Average amount of each defect
Recoverable Rate <Dweller's Purchased House Price> Defect Repair deposit Inflow Deposit Rate
Outflow
Figure 4: Companys Defect Repair Deposit Model
However, if #.of House Defect Repair and #.of lawsuit Defect Repair increase, Word of Mouth leads to Companys House Quality in Market decrease. As this relationship influences Expenses for House Quality, companies expenses are expected to be increased. Consequently, companies lawsuit expenses influence the companys expenses (Fig.5).
Expenses for House Quality + Expenses Company's House Quality Value in Market + + Company's Profit
Company's Expected #.of House Sales
Income +
+ Dweller's Perceived #.of Defect Repair Word of Mouth + Average Defect Repair Accept ratio + + #.of House Defect Repair Completed Rate + Defect Repair Regulations Reliability + #.of lawsuit Defect repair + Soultion Rate Average amount of each defect Recoverable Rate
+ Perception Rate
Outflow
Defect Repair deposit Inflow Deposit Rate
Lawsuit Rate -
Average Duration for a issue
Figure 5: Companys Defect Repair Lawsuit Effect Model
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3.3 Performance Warranty Contract Expectations and Limitations There are two expected effects of Performance warranty contract to compensate for the defect repair regulations. Firstly, defect repair regulations reliability is expected to increase overall. Defect criterion of current defect regulations in Korea is ambiguous in determining whether it is defects or not. For example, concrete crack defect standard does not exactly state crack width. Due to this reason, most of concrete cracks defects have been decided at the court. Secondly, Companys House Quality Value in Market is expected to increase overall. Since performance warranty contract is based on guaranteed high quality to contractors, it influences on Expenses for House Quality. Even though Companys Profit could be decreased due to Expenses for House Quality, improved house quality can lead to the companys income.
Current House Price in Market Dweller's Purchased Dweller's Expected House Price Initial House Value Dweller's Perceived House Value Expenses for House Quality + Expenses R1 + + Company's Profit Income + + Company's Expected #.of House Sales
+ Dweller's Perceived #.of Defect Repair
Average #.of Defect Repair
"Dwellr's House Quality Convert into Value" Dweller's House Quality Satisfaction "Word of Mouth effect to dweller"
Company's House Quality Value in Market

+ B1 Word of Mouth +
"Second Expectation"
Average Defect Repair Accept ratio + + + Outflow Average amount of each defect
+ Dweller's Defect Repair Compansation
+ Perception Rate
#.of House Defect Repair
Completed Rate
"First
Company's Expected Compensation Cost + Possibility of Agreement Dweller's Expected Compensation Cost Lawsuit Rate Expectation" + Lawsuit expenses -
Defect Repair Regulations Reliability

+ + #.of lawsuit Defect repair Soultion Rate + Average Duration for a issue
Figure 6: Performance Warranty Contract Expectations
However, these two expectations could have forecasted limitations as shown in Fig.7. Firstly, Defect Repair Regulations Reliability is hard to control the Lawsuit Rate. Lawsuit Rate is affected by both Dwellers Defect repair Compensation and Defect Repair Regulations Reliability. According to the model structure, controlling the Dwellers repair Compensation is more important because the reliability of the regulations is independent control variable, which means it merely has ripple effects within the defect repair structure. Secondly, Companys House Quality Value in Market is hard to expect Companys Profit immediately. For increase in Companys House Quality Value in Market, it needs companys
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expenses increase and Word of Mouth decrease. However, companys Expenses for House Quality is controlled by Companys Profit levels, which means it will take substantial amount of time to achieve the Companys profits. Besides, changes in Word of Mouth require certain time for the regulations to be changed. Also, current Dwellers Perceived House Value still leads a Dwellers perceived #.of Defect repair and Dwellers Defect Repair Compensation. Therefore, performance warranty contract expectations are hard to be activated straight away in current defect repair regulations structure.
Current House Price in Market Dweller's Purchased House Price Expenses for House Quality
Dweller's Expected Initial House Value Dweller's Perceived House Value R1
Company's Expected #.of House Sales + Expenses Company's Profit Income +
"Dwellr's House Quality Dweller's House Convert into Value" Quality Satisfaction + Dweller's Perceived #.of Defect Repair Average #.of Defect Repair "Word of Mouth effect to dweller" + + Dweller's Defect Repair Compensation Perception Rate #.of House Defect Repair -
"Company's Resource limit" Company's House Quality Value in Market

Word of Mouth + Average Defect Repair Accept ratio ++ Completed Rate + +
"Dweller's perception of existing defect"

B1
Average amount of each defect
Outflow
"Limited effect to control the lawsuit"

+ Lawsuit Rate -
Company's Expected Compensation Cost
Possibility of Agreement
Lawsuit expenses
Defect Repair Regulations Reliability

+ + Deposit Requset Ratio
Dweller's Expected Compensation Cost
#.of lawsuit Defect repair
Soultion Rate + Average Duration for a issue
Figure 7: Performance Warranty Contract Limitations
4. CONCLUSION
Rapid changes in material and construction techniques emerged in recent decades are leading to a loss of rationale in prescriptive provisions (A.Emin Aktan 2007). Also, dwellers house value perception is much more increased than last decades. Consequently, the performance based engineering methods and performance warranty contract have been under discussion in recent last ten years. Moreover, this concept is drawing attention as the upcoming alternative in the defect repair regulations. However, most of the new regulations take time to be adopted in the market. For this reason, the performance warranty contract concept is not expected to replace the current defect repair regulations as a whole but support the current defect repair regulations weakness point. From this perspective, the results of this paper performed can be summarized as follows: Firstly, the performance warranty contract can support the problems of low reliability of the
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current defect regulations. However, it has limitation in controlling the lawsuit rate. Secondly, companys expense is insufficient to improve the house quality immediately. This study examined performance warranty contracts effect on the current defect repair regulations using system dynamics, through the causal loop diagrams between dwellers and construction companies. As a future research, the relationships between dwellers perceived value and house price need to be further analyzed to examine the level of dwellers perceived defects. Also, validation is required using quantitative data. Consequently, this model analysis will be helpful for understanding the performance warranty contracts effect in building construction defect repair market.
REFERENCES
A. Emin Aktan , Bruce R.Ellingwood and Brian Kehoe, 2007. Performance-based Engineering of Constructed Systems. ASCE Forum, March., pp.311323 Bayraktar, C. Q., Hastak, M., and Minkarah, I., 2004. State-of Practice of Warranty Contracting in the U.S. J.Infrastruct. Syst., Vol.10, No.2., pp.6068 Elizabeth Sees, Qingbin Cui and Philip Johnson., 2009. Legal Environment for Warranty Contracting. ASCE, July, pp.115121 Korea Construction Newspaper, 2009. 05.11 Kwak, S ., 1995. Policy Analysis of Hanford Tank Farm operations with System Dynamics Approach. Ph.D Dissertation. Sterman, J.D. 2000. Business Dynamics, Boston: Irwin. Mcgraw-hill, pp.191232 Young-Jun Cho, Chang-Taek Hyun, Sang-Beam Lee and James Diekmann., 2006. Characteristics of Contractors Liabilities for Defects and Defective Work in Korean Public Projects. ASCE, April, pp.180186
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SELECTING THE BRIDGE TYPES THROUGH AHP PLUS CONJOINT ANALYSIS APPROACH
Yong-Wook Lee Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea, evanlee@yonsei.ac.kr Seokjin Choi Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea sjchoi@yonsei.ac.kr Seung H. Han Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea shh6018@yonsei.ac.kr Jae-Jin Lee Korea Land & Housing Corporation, Seoul, South Korea sandali66@daum.net
Abstract An urban development project includes numerous small- and medium-sized bridges that frequently amount to multibillions worth of dollars. However, there are no methodical criteria or guidelines that consider the site situation for selecting the bridge types, plus there are many possible problems in the decision process such as concerns for objectivity and fairness of bridge type selection. The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework for the bridge type selection in the urban development project by using multi-attribute decisionmaking tools. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and conjoint analysis are complementarily conducted for the bridge selection framework. Ultimately, this framework is expected to support the owner as the guideline to better decide the bridge type among many possible but conflicting choices. Keywords: urban development project, bridge type, decision making, conjoint analysis, analytic hierarchy process.
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Background To respond to population growth and relieve environmental problems, the numbers of new urban development projects have increased, and these projects are generally complex and large scaled and include a number of small- and medium-sized bridges. Ten urban development projects were planned or under construction during 20072011 in South Korea and an average of 13 small- and medium-sized bridges were installed in each project. Bridge construction takes up a large portion of a road project, which is one of the main construction parts in the urban development project, plus the scale of bridge installation amounting to multibillions of dollars. Although it is common for a number of bridges to be installed in an urban development project, however, the selection of bridge type has been overlooked. There are no objective and methodical criteria or guidelines considering the various site situations where bridges are being constructed. Furthermore, while the owners capacity of management is very important as the project becomes huge and complex, the absence of objective and methodical criteria for selecting the bridge type raises problems that diminish the owners role, as well as posing problems of objectivity and fairness. The object of this study is to create a decision making model framework for selecting the bridge type in an urban development project. To enhance the owners capacity to decide the bridge type, we drew the objective assessment factors and gave the weights according to the bridge affiliation and type through multi-attribute decision making tools. Bridge affiliation means a group of bridge types with similar structure style. The proposed framework enables the owner to make better decision for selecting the proper bridge type.
1.2. Research Approach To make the bridge type selection framework, we limit its scope to small- and medium-sized bridges in an urban development project. Also the target bridge set bounds to the patent and new technology bridges that are most often used in such projects (steel-concrete composite bridge, composite Rahmen bridge, pre-flex bridge, pre-stressed concrete). The framework presented in this paper is composed of three steps. First, to provide information to the owner for the purpose of the framework, previous research analysis was assessed and a questionnaire survey was conducted to identify the current systems problems. Second, assessment factors were derived through in-depth previous research reviews and by questionnaire survey. Third, AHP and conjoint analysis were applied to analyze the importance of the assessment factors according to the bridge affiliations and types. The total score is shown through the sum of both weights and the score is shown by bridge conditions. The conditions are divided into three sections of span length to reflect different site conditions.
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Figure 1: Research flow
2. OVERVIEW OF PREVIOUS APPROACH

Although bridge construction generally accounts for the largest portion in road construction of urban development projects, the selection of bridge type studies is insufficient. Nevertheless, studies about bridge risk assessment have been performed in various ways. Most of the studies consider different methods for evaluating the bridge risk. For example, Wang and Elhag (2007) suggested fuzzy group decision-making (FGDM) for bridge risk assessment. Adey et al. (2003) suggested a risk-based approach to determine the optimal intervention for a bridge subject to multiple hazards. Johnson and Niezgoda (2004) presented a risk-based method for ranking and comparing the most appropriate bridge scour countermeasures using the risk priority numbers (RPN) by failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Wang et al. (2008) integrated AHP and date envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology for risk assessment when there are a number of bridge alternatives. Compared to the various methodologies performed on bridge risk assessment research, research on bridge type selection is sparse. Ahn et al. (2002) applied the value engineering (VE) and life cycle cost (LCC) concepts for selecting the optimal bridge type. Using the AHP technique and LCC concept, Ahn et al. (2001) performed a case study. Jeong et al. (2005) presented the VE method with the life cycle assessment (LCA) concept for the environmental effect. Han (2007) performed AHP analysis for optimal bridge selection in a housing development project. Bridge risk assessment and type selection are essentially a multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem which involves multi-assessment criteria (Wang et al., 2007). Therefore, most of the previous studies have used AHP method which is most popular in MCDM approaches. However, weight calculation through the AHP method cannot reflect the level of the assessment factor attributes. Also, there are no standard assessment factors, even though diverse assessment factors have been used in previous studies.
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3. METHODOLOGY
3.1. AHP (analytic hierarchy process) analysis The AHP method was introduced by Saaty (1980) as a new approach to dealing with multicriteria decision-making. It does not directly evaluate the importance but compares the two attributes as a form of paired comparisons, which compensates for the factor independence problem arising from direct assessment. AHP has been applied successfully in various areas where the multi-attribute decision-making technique is required and it has also been applied in a few areas of construction such as the contractor selection (Fong and Choi, 2000), procurement selection (Cheung et al., 2001), alternative dispute resolution (Cheung et al., 2004), and project management (Al-Harbi, 2001). The main features of the AHP method are as follows: first, it is possible to evaluate the differences between the attributes through pairwise comparison. Second, it is possible to be applied to a small sample size for decision-making. Third, it is carried out in a relatively simple way. On the other hand, the detail level of each attribute is not taken into account. In addition, when the number of attributes is increasing, the consistency index becomes higher because the evaluation is performed by pairwise comparison and results in the logicality problem. For these reasons, the AHP method is appropriate for evaluating the bridge affiliation but contains a limitation to evaluating the bridge type because the difference between bridge affiliations does not appear at the detail level, whereas the difference between bridge types appear in the level of detail.
3.2. Conjoint analysis The genesis of the conjoint analysis stems from the 1920s but it evolved from Luce and Tukey (1964). Krantz and Tversky (1971) contributed to the theoretical development and Kruskal (1964), Carroll (1969), and Young (1969) developed the conjoint algorithm. The basic idea of conjoint analysis consists of the techniques for handling situations in which a decision maker has to deal with multiple-attributes. Conjoint analysis assesses the relative importance of the attributes by evaluating the combination of each bundle of attributes as concerns the various attributes of the product (Winttink and Cattin, 1982). In other words, it is the decompositional approach that evaluates the overall values and utility, and obtains the values of utility of each attribute based on the synthesis of uniform laws by the profile regarding the attributes of the evaluation target. Over the years, conjoint analysis has been implemented in the marketing and decision making areas due to the various following advantages (Green and Srinivasan, 1990): conjoint analysis is convenient for evaluating the various combinations of attributes scientifically and through the results shown by the evaluator, and the utility of each factor can be extracted considering the detail level of each attribute. Finally, it is possible to analyze the probability of each alternative that can be chosen by preference.
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AHP and conjoint analysis are rather similar as used in the multi-attribute decision-making situation and generating the importance of attributes. However, there are empirical studies that show conjoint analysis is better in giving the predictive validity of the completed product (Koo and Koo, 2010). For these reasons, we applied the conjoint analysis to the methodology of bridge type selection because the bridge type can be considered in the completed product and conjoint analysis can consider the detail level of each attribute. Therefore, this research chose two multi-attribute decision-making techniques, AHP and conjoint, in order to use the proper technique in each step for the bridge selection framework. AHP analysis is used for the assessment of importance in bridge affiliation. Because bridge affiliation includes various type of bridges, and there are different detail level of bridge types in each affiliation. Therefore it is difficult to define the detail levels to separate bridge affiliation so that AHP analysis is proper in calculating the weight of bridge affiliation. And then, to complement the AHP analysis, conjoint analysis is performed on the bridge type in this paper.
4. ANALYSIS
4.1. Step 1: As-is analysis The procedure of an urban development project performed by a public enterprise generally consists of the route feasibility study, field trips, a set of bridge type alternatives, and comprehensive assessment. However, the owner gets the alternatives that highlight the contractors strength in the procedure of the alternatives set and selects the final bridge type among the alternatives suggested by the contractor. In this process, many problems are posed such as a lack of a role for the owner, and issues of objectivity and fairness. For as-is analysis, a questionnaire survey was conducted with the practitioners engaged in bridge construction and a total of 40 target persons were divided into two groups. Group A consisted of 25 practitioners working in the public enterprise in the urban development part and group B consisted of 15 practitioners working in the bridge design firm with experience related to bridge construction. All respondents replied and the results are shown in table 1.
Problem Does the bridge type selection process in the urban development project have any problem? YES NO Respondents Group A Group B 24/25 1/25 11/15 4/15 Total 35/40 5/40 Rate 87.5% 12.5%
Table 1: As-is survey respondent rate
Without distinction in the group, 87.5% of the total respondents answered YES and especially group A showed a relatively high number of answer YES. Therefore, it is urgent
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for group A to be able to finally decide the bridge type to enhance their capability and establish the framework for optimal bridge selection. The questionnaire survey was also conducted for analysis of the degree of the problem in the bridge selection procedure. Thirty-four of the 35 respondents who answered YES participated in the survey by 5-point Likert scale. Table 2 shows the results, in which the problem degree is high and lack of objectivity of the bridge type selection procedure and irrationality of the economic comparison of the bridge type accounted for a high score of the problem degree.
Problem Respondents Sum Average Lack of objectivity of the bridge type selection procedure 137 4.029 Irrationality of the economic comparison of bridge type 139 4.088 34 Lack of transparency of the selection process 122 3.588 Inadequacy of the decision making process 109 3.206 Lack of objective comparative data 133 3.912 (5 point: strongly high; 1 point: strongly low)
Table 2: As-is analysis in bridge selection process
1 2 3 4 5
4.2. Step 2: Deduction of the assessment factors Previous studies, domestic reports, guidelines of organization, and In-depth review of literature were carried out in order to identify the assessment factors in the selection of bridge type. Also, the factors considered in the real case were derived and through frequency of use and integration of redundant factors, a total of 10 factors was selected as shown in table 3.
factors Economic Workability Stability Maintenance aesthetic External conditions Functionality Environment Complaints Standardization Contents Unit cost, LCC, etc. Facilitation of work, condition of the site Durability, safety during construction Inexpensive, Facilitation of maintenance and repair Bridges own beauty, harmony with surroundings Landscape plan, connectivity with top planning, span length, etc. Facilitate the passage, driving comfort Effects on the environment Minimize the public complaints Promote the standardization of structures
Table 3: Bridge assessment factors and contents
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
In order to calculate the weights by multi-attribute decision-making, the use of too many assessment factors makes choosing the objective judgment and distinction of evaluator unclear. Therefore, in this study, five assessment factors were derived by analyzing the
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importance of the assessment factors and weights were calculated separately in the bridge affiliation and type in affiliation to derive the appropriate factors. The questionnaire survey was conducted with as-is analysis in step 1 to evaluate the importance. The result for AHP analysis (bridge affiliation) consists of the factors of economic, workability, stability, maintenance, and external condition and for conjoint analysis (bridge type), of economic, workability, stability, maintenance, and aesthetic.
4.3. Step 3: Calculation of weight for the bridge selection Weight of the bridge affiliation AHP analysis is conducted to calculate the weight of the bridge affiliation. The procedure of AHP analysis consists of the hierarchy structure, pairwise comparisons, weight calculation, and consistency ratio. First, the hierarchy structure is constructed in such a way that the overall decision goal is at the top, criteria are in the middle level, and alternatives at the bottom. For the bridge type selection, the hierarchy structure is shown in fig 2.
Figure 2: Hierarchy analysis
After interrelationships are mapped by hierarchy structure, the relative weights of the attributes are determined by comparing in pairs, separately for each set in the hierarchy. In this paper, pairwise comparisons are quantified in 5-point Likert scale. Once the relative weights are calculated for each set of attributes at every level of the hierarchy and the respective priority vectors are produced, the overall score of each alternative can be measured. Fifty-five experts and practitioners engaged in bridge construction participated in the survey and finally, a consistency index is measured to check the consistency of pairwise comparisons. If the consistency index is over 0.1, this condition is not fulfilled so that revision of the comparisons is needed. All the consistency Index is less than 0.1 in this study and the final weight is shown in table 4.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary PSC Factor Economic Workability Stability External conditions aesthetic Total Rank 1 Weight weight 0.174 0.137 0.405 0.147 0.137 0.429 0.315 0.261 0.151 0.254 Total weight 0.075 0.043 0.106 0.022 0.035 0.281 3 Table 4: Weights of bridge affiliation Rahmen weight 0.270 0.246 0.239 0.177 0.219 Total weight 0.047 0.034 0.097 0.026 0.030 0.234 2 Steel-concrete composite Total weight weight 0.181 0.032 0.235 0.267 0.277 0.308 0.032 0.108 0.041 0.042 0.255 4 Preflex weight 0.119 0.203 0.232 0.395 0.219 Total weight 0.021 0.028 0.094 0.058 0.030 0.231
Weight of the bridge type Prior to performing the conjoint analysis, the field conditions were classified as follows: Condition 1: Length of bridge span is less than 30m Condition 2: Length of bridge span is between 30m and 50m Condition 3: Length of bridge span is more than 50m To successfully perform the conjoint analysis, the evaluator should understand the attributes and level of each attribute to describe using the proper value. Green and Srinivasan (1978) proposed the following six steps for conducting a conjoint: selection of a model preference (vector model, ideal-point model etc.), data collection method (trade-off, full-profile), stimulus set construction for the full profile method (fractional factorial design, random sampling from multi-variate distribution), stimulus presentation, measurement scale for the dependent variable (paired comparison, rank order, rating scales), and estimation method. In this paper, the full-profile method is used for the data collection and, through the fractional factorial design, we reduced the stimulus set. Stimulus measured by the rank order method and SPSS statistic program was used for the conjoint analysis. The attributes were used from step 2 and its level of attribution is as shown in table 5.
Attribute Economic Stability Maintenance Workability Aesthetic Level of attribute Construction cost $1,750/m less (total average unit cost) Construction cost $1,750/m2 or more (total average unit cost) Construction performance (market share 5% less) Construction performance (market share 15% less) Construction performance (market share 15% or more) The existing maintenance system No maintenance system Advantage of workability by crane batch work Disadvantage of workability by site work Advantage of aesthetic Disadvantage of aesthetic
2
Table 5: Bridge attribute and attribute level
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A total of eight profiles was created and 45 expert and practitioners participated in the survey. The respondents consist of public enterprise (owners, 29) and design firms (contractors, 16). The total results are shown in table 6 and the results of reliability analysis are also satisfied.
Condition 1 Attribute Level weight
Condition 2
Condition 3
weight
Maintenance
Yes
.715
.673 28.2%
.614
.556 24.3%
.341
.305 25.8%
No
.715
.673
.614
.556
.341
.305
Aesthetic
advantage disadvantage $1,750/m2 less $1,750/m2 or more 5% less
.145
.673 12.3%
.165
.556 18.0%
.091
.305 15.0%
.145
.673
.165
.556
.091
.305
Economic
.314
1.345 16.3%
.045
1.111 15.9%
.057
.610 19.5%
.628
2.690
.091
2.222
.114
1.221
.072
.811
.033
.670
.393
.368
Stability
15% less 15% or more
.144
1.622
16.5%
.066
1.340
14.3%
.785
.736
16.9%
.216 1.640 3.279
2.433
.099
2.010
1.178
1.104
Workability
advantage disadvantage Pearsons R
1.345 26.8% 2.690
1.580 3.159
1.111 27.6% 2.222
.943 1.886
.610 22.8% 1.221
0.759 (0.014) (significance level)
0.810 (0.007)
0.842 (0.004)
Table 6: Results of conjoint analysis
385
weight
utility
utility
utility
SD
SD
SD
5. APPLICATION OF THE REAL CASE

To show the final result through the combination of AHP and conjoint analysis from the framework, the bridge selection framework was conducted using a real case. The condition of the case is a 35m span length and the alternatives are the bridge type in PSC, Rahmen, and steel-concrete composite affiliation. In this case, bridge B in a steel-concrete composite affiliation is selected for the optimal bridge as shown in table 7. However, it is difficult to consider all site situations so this framework would provide the owner with the guideline but he or she would need to consider the other site situations.
AHP Affiliation Bridge type A B C No .614 No .614 Yes .614 .165 + .165 + .165
Maintenance Aesthetic Economic
Conjoint
Stability Workability
0.243
0.180
0.159
utility
0.143 5~15 .066 15 .099 15 .099
0.276
total
PSC (0.281) SCC (0.255) Rahmen (0.234)
Rank
xx
+ 1.111 2.222 + 1.111 6.73E07 3.67E06 1.68E06 2 1 3
less 1.111 Or more 2.222 Or more 2.222
Table 7: Example of the bride selection framework
6. CONCLUSION
In this paper, we have developed a framework for small- and medium-sized bridge type selection in urban development project using the multi-attribute decision-making tool. Through AHP analysis, the weights of the bridge affiliation were calculated and through conjoint analysis, the utility values, which take into consideration the detailed level of attributes for the bridge type selection, were derived depending on the site condition. Final weights were calculated by the sum of both the scores and, through these final weights, the bridge selection framework is presented. The framework takes into consideration the detailed level of attributes so that it helps the owner to decide the bridge type. Ultimately, it would provide a methodical guideline to help the owner make an objective decision. In future research, more factors and various situations should be considered.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF), a grant funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Grant No. 2012-0000178)
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REFERENCES
Adey, B., Hajdin, R., and Bru hwiler, E., 2003. Risk-based approach to the determination of optimal interventions for bridges affected by multiple hazards. Engineering Structures, Vol. 25, pp. 903912. Ahn, J. P., Park, K. H., and Kim, S. J., 2002. A Study on the Selection of Optimal Bridge Form by Introduction of VE/LCC. KSCE Conference 2002. pp. 330333. Ahn, J. W., Kim, Y. S., and Kim, S. S., 2001. A Case Study on the Selection of a Bridge Superstructure Type Using AHP Technique and LCC Concept. KSCE Vol. 21, No.5-D, pp. 555762. Al-Harbi, K. A.-S., 2001. Application of the AHP in project management. International Journal of Project Management., Vol. 19, No.1, pp. 1927. Carroll, J. D., 1969. Categorical Conjoint Measurement. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Association of Mathematical Psychology, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Cheung, S.-O., Lam, T.-I., Leung, M.-Y., and Wan, Y.-W., 2001a. An analytical hierarchy process based procurement selection method. Construction Management Economics., Vol. 19, No.4, pp. 427437. Cheung, S.-O., Lam, T.-I., Wan, Y.-W., and Lam, K.-C., 2001b. Improving objectivity in procurement selection. Journal of Management in Engineering., Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 132139. Cheung, S.-O., Suen, H. C. H., Ng, S. T., and Leung, M.-Y., 2004. Convergent views of neutrals and users about alternative dispute resolution. Journal of Management in Engineering., Vol. 20, No.3, pp. 8896. Fong, S.-W., and Choi, K.-Y., 2000. Final contractor selection using the analytical hierarchy process. Construction Management & Economics., Vol. 18, No. 5, pp. 547557. Green, P. E., and Srinivasan. V., 1978. Conjoint analysis in consumer research: issues and outlook. Journal of consumer research, Vol. 5, pp. 103123. Green, P. E., and Srinivasan. V., 1990. Conjoint Analysis in Marketing: New Developments With Implications for Research and Practice. Journal of Marketing, Vol. 54(4), pp. 319. Han, S. H., Decision of Structural form of Bridge in Site, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Hanyang university, Master Thesis, 2007. Jeong, J. S., Park, K. H., and Jang, W. B., 2005. Integrated VE approach based on LCA : In the Selection of Bridge Superstructure Type Alternatives. KSCE Vol. 53, No.12, pp. 4260. Johnson, P. A., and Niezgoda, S. L., 2004. Risk-based method for selecting bridge scour countermeasures. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 130(2), pp. 121128. Koo, H.Y. H., and Koo, L. C., 2010. Empirical examination of AHP and Conjoint Analysis on casino attributes in Macau. Conference Proceedings of An International Conference on Public Welfare and Gaming Industry, pp. 327 350. Krantz, D. H., Tversky , A., Luce, R. D., and Suppes, P., 1971. Foundations of Measurement Volume I: Additive and Polynomial Representations. New York Academic. Vol. 28 Kruskal, J. B., 1964. Multidimensional scaling by optimizing goodness of fit to a nonmetric hypothesis. Psychometrika, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 127. Luce, R.D., and John W. T., 1964. Simultaneous conjoint measurement: A new type of fundamental measurement, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, Vol. 1, pp. 127 Saaty, T. L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New York. Wang ,Y. M. and Elhag , T. M.S., 2007. A fuzzy group decision making approach for bridge risk assessment. Computers & Industrial Engineering, Vol. 53, pp. 137148. Wang ,Y. M., Liu, J., and Elhag , T. M.S., 2008. An integrated AHPDEA methodology for bridge risk assessment, Computers & Industrial Engineering Vol. 54, pp. 513525.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Wittink, D. R., and Cattin. P., 1982. Commercial Use of Analysis: A Survey. Journal of Marketing, Vol. 46, No.3, pp. 4453. Young, F. W., 1969. Polynomial Conjoint Analysis of Similarities: Definitions for a Special Algorithm. Research Paper No. 76, Psychometric Laboratory, University of North Carolina
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SELECTED PROBLEMS OF COST ESTIMATION USING BIM

Agnieszka Leniak Cracow University of Technology, Cracow, Poland, alesniak@izwbit.pk.edu.pl Krzysztof Zima Cracow University of Technology, Cracow, Poland, kzima@izwbit.pk.edu.pl
Abstract Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a technological innovation, not only during the design process, but also during the planning and preparation stages of a construction project, as it also supports making investment decisions. An innovation which is comparable, if only slightly less significant, was the transition from using 2D systems to the 3D structural model design. The article outlines the advantages of using BIM in the preparatory stages of a construction project. It also presents benefits which relate to the employment of the BIM system in cost estimation process. The article describes the Zuzia BIM system which uses the BIM model, as this system has just been created in Poland for the purpose of construction cost estimation. The preparation of the bill of quantities is automated in this system and this has been achieved on the basis of data directly obtained from virtual models of buildings, which were carried out thanks to the collaboration of various design sectors. The article authors, using their own experience, present difficulties which can be encountered by cost estimators in Poland when calculating the value of a building with the help of the Building Information Modeling concept. Keywords: building information modeling, cost estimation, virtual model.
1. INTRODUCTION
BIM is a digital representation of a construction process which enables information exchange and cooperation through the use of a digital format [Eastman et al, 1999], and which serves as a common source of information about a particular building. Using the Building Information Modeling system in the process of cost estimation allows to prepare estimations which are quicker and more accurate, as the complete set of data on the structure is gathered in one place (a file). The employment of BIM also permits to fully/partially render construction cost estimations automatic. The aim of the article is to present problems which are related with the application of cost estimations which use the BIM system in Poland. The authors of this article took part in works carried out in Poland which attempted to create a cost estimation application which uses data stored in the BIM model. The article describes
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selected problems of cost estimation using the BIM concept on the basis of personal experience relating to the creation of such an application, practical cost estimation examples created with this application and studied reference literature. As a consequence of this research, the most significant current difficulties relating to the BIM-based cost estimation in Poland can be presented. A BIM-based cost application created in Poland is also depicted. Also, necessary solutions which need to be introduced in Poland are presented in the article, which would enable or simplify cost estimation processes using the BIM concept.
2. THE ADVANTAGES OF THE BIM CONCEPT IN THE SUPPORT OF A CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT.

The concept of Building Information Modeling is to build a building virtually, prior to building it physically, in order to work out problems, and simulate and analyze potential impacts [Smith, 2007]. The 5D technology is designed for the purpose of integrated management of all critical parameters of a future construction project, from its design to its erection [Kozlovsk, 2008]. The information model of a building is detailed described by such principal features as [Juszczyk et al, 2010]: 3D Parametric modeling. Applications which allow to model in 3D have the advantage of parametric modeling of a projects aim, which enables the creation and editing of a model and as a result there is a smaller likelihood of errors occurring in the design. Collision detection. A 3D model, virtually representing a real space, through its building information modeling concept allows to detect collisions (clash detection) errors in the design where, for example, surfaces collide, the continuity is broken or installations are crossed. Engineering analysis. The BIM system is based upon a digital database which collects all information on a building, which can then be utilized when making investment decisions, through the execution of qualitative and quantitative analyses. Analyses relating to energy consumption, insolation and shading, future running costs and many other simulations can significantly increase the efficiency and reliability of the design and planning processes. Schedules (4D modeling). 4D BIM applications can combine network methods and schedules with 3D virtual structures. This allows to graphically represent the subsequent stages of construction works, together with their visualization and animation. The 4D schedules are useful tools in construction works planning, coordination and communication. Cost estimation (5D modeling). The information on the scope and amount of the necessary construction works, as well as actual construction costs can be related directly to every element in a 3D project. These related costs are parametric and dynamic, which means that any changes to the model will amend the calculations connected with quantities of the required materials, the bill of quantities and the investments cost estimation.
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General information. 3D structures can also be combined with different source documentation with the use of hyperlinks. As a result, a project (a virtual model of a structure) can be extended by a range of additional data. Technical specifications, various technical data, photographs and links to manufacturers (manufacturers websites) can serve as added value to every stage of an investment process. Precise information collected in one database (a file) in the form of digital data, which uses possibilities of parametric modeling, has a considerable advantage over traditional design methods. The information allows to make decisions relating to a building which is being erected at every stage of an investment process using up-to-date and complete data. Collecting information in one location simplifies the detection and removal of problems within a project, while also allowing to reduce their presence, due to the fact that technical documentation is uniform and current. The application of building information modeling concept quickens the processes of cost estimation. BIMs task is to store data in one file to guarantee their cohesion and accessibility.
3. ADVANTAGES OF USING THE BIM CONCEPT IN COST ESTIMATIONS.

Software which uses the BIM concept allows the user to, for example, prepare bills of quantities or to calculate the required amount of materials without the need to carry out manual and arduous calculations of the necessary works or materials required. All such elements are carried out automatically on the basis of data included in the model of the project which is being constructed [Popovas et al, 2004]. Building Information Modeling provides for the transformation of information thanks to the possibility of digital data delivery to all investment participants starting from the initial design, through the construction to the management of the building. The database created with BIM technology, consisting of 3D visual building elements, can be a source of many accurate and automatic indications and can help increase the accuracy of cost estimations. The BIM model is only a starting point for cost estimation processes and at present there is no such tool which could render the work of a cost estimator completely unnecessary by automatically calculating the costs using previously created design documentation. Figure 1 shows that the BIM model can only automatically provide a section of data needed to perform cost calculation (bill of quantities, scope of calculation and list of materials), leaving the cost estimator with the remaining elements. The remaining work is dependent on the regulations relating to cost estimation and the individual assessment of the cost estimator.
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Figure 1: Cost calculation based on the BIM concept (own source).
The differences in the proceedings shown in figure 1 relate to the preparation of a bill of quantities, whose scope and quantity of works in the event of using the BIM concept are automatically sourced from the model of a building, for example by using the IFC format. The provision of data on the quantity of works, areas and cubic capacity of the individual elements is one of the most important functions offered by the BIM technology [Hardin, 2009]. Apart from the obvious cut in the time needed to prepare a bill of quantities, another advantage of this system is the reduction of the number of errors relating to the identification of scope and calculations of the works to be carried out. Consequently, the accuracy level of a buildings description using the BIM model directly translates into the accuracy level of the automatically created bill of quantities and of the cost calculation [Eastman et al, 2008]. Cost calculations can be conducted throughout the whole cycle of the BIM project lifespan. The level of cost calculation detail can vary depending on the phase of an investment. Companies using the BIM technology should prepare their own internal procedures and standards for the development of structures, specifying the required level of detail for the calculations of a given stage of a project and creating frameworks to ensure the flow of coherent information from all BIM components, to be registered by individual cost items. The initial cost calculation can be automatically performed already at the design stage, using the previously created 3D design, based on construction element libraries. Initial cost calculations, in contrast with the ones created during subsequent stages, are carried out on the basis of a concept (for example according to the House Price Bulletin, published by Sekoncenbud for the first quarter of 2012 a sample five-storey multi-family residential building costs approximately 552.19 /m2 or 119.68 /m3) and they do not require a calculation of individual elements. As a rule, the concept phase estimates costs on a concept level, and a more detailed description of a model will mean a more detailed cost calculation [Kymmell, 2008]. The initial cost calculation can be prepared on the basis of a template created from previous examples, depending on the project type, region or structure type.
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Detailed BIM-based cost calculations are created on the basis of coherent information defining the project and technical data. These calculations can be practically carried out at every stage of a projects development and they are adjusted to the reports level of detail. The BIM users need to, therefore, establish standards to represent construction components (structures, groups, elements) in a model adapting the required level of detail to the particular stage of an investment [Sabol, 2008]. The elements can be modeled in a general way (i.e. oak doors) or to a defined level of detail (i.e. oak doors insulated with polystyrene 25 mm thick, covered with acrylic paint) figure 2. Objects, groups or elements can be described in a BIM model only to a certain degree. An ideal solution would be to introduce, on the basis of BIM, description standards for the elements in a project or the creation of prepared libraries of elements with their comprehensive description. Such libraries are available on the Polish market, however, they lack a certain level of description standardization, there is too few of them and they apply mostly to the finishing (there are no libraries prepared for structural elements or installations). Any additional information, which can be introduced to the model during the cost calculation stage, can be combined with elements in the external database (i.e. website pages, as it is shown in figure 2). The BIM-based cost calculation can be carried out in different ways increasing the definitions of the structure in a model or with the use of unique identifiers for the structures which are linked to more detailed information stored in databases, such as Microsoft Access or Oracle [Sabol, 2008].
Figure 2: Level of detail for element description general data on universal doors and selected doors (own source).
The BIM model can describe different types of elements, i.e.: structural (walls, ceilings, beams) or finishing ones (doors and windows, plaster work, etc.). That database can include a wide array of information about the product, including geometry, material, manufacturing and assembly techniques, tolerances, costs, and even information to support supply chain management, or it may include only some of these [See, 2007]. The BIM model can describe for each element abstract concepts and relations, for example connections and locations in relation to one another, types of elements, as well as description of areas and systems of which it is a part of.
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4. COST VALUATION USING BIM IN POLAND.

The recently created application Zuzia BIM is used for cost estimation on the basis of a bill of quantities read directly from a virtual model created in CAD and equipped with BIM technology. This model, which contains integrated results coming from architects, design engineers and installers, is a basis for the creation of a construction cost estimation. Zuzia BIM comprises two elements: BIM Vision viewer, which enables reading and virtual visualization of a building model and Zuzia 11 cost estimation system (Figure 3). BIM Vision can: Read virtual models in IFC 2x3 format, Use simple geometric operations rotate, move and zoom, Visualize a building with different degrees of transparency (solid body with opaque walls, partially transparent walls and the so-called lattice mode, where only edges are visible), Present a scope of works according to the prepared project for all sectors, Remove a part of a model and discard selected model components, Calculate the quantity of works.
Figure 3: Zuzia BIM application BIM Vision viewer and Zuzia 11 cost estimation system.
A transfer can then be carried out to Zuzia 11 cost calculation system. This system is a conventional system which is equipped with all necessary functions, including databases in the form of normative catalogues and pricelists. In order to simplify the process of cost calculation, there is a possibility to visualize selected items of the cost calculation by highlighting the required elements of a model. The highlighted elements can be viewed against other components, they can also be removed from a model or only the highlighted elements can be displayed. The viewer operates independently of the system where the virtual model was created. Individual elements of a model, after data is imported from the viewer, serve as items in Zuzia BIM cost calculation system. All BIM elements of the same type create one BIM position. Further proceedings are related to the estimation of cost estimation items as part of a cost calculation system
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according to the accepted reintegration level for elements or construction works. The suitability of the above-mentioned application depends to a large degree on what data is delivered by the BIM model.
5. PROBLEMS WITH COST ESTIMATION USING THE BIM CONCEPT.

Practical utilization of the BIM concept potential is at present inconsequential in Poland. Lack of awareness of investors, designers and contractors renders the practical employment of the BIMs advantages negligible. Another obstacle is that there are no system solutions prepared that would enable the use of a building model created using the BIM concept. The task of a designer is to establish the structure of a building and decide which elements belong to a given floor, roof, wall, etc. Poland does not have any guidelines on methods and levels of detail which are required in a design documentation. When using Zuzia BIM application to provide automation for the works, a certain method of element description is needed. The biggest problem in cost estimation using BIM is the appropriate design of elements in a BIM model by designers. This issue will be explained using the example of reinforcement works. Reinforcement bars have been defined by a designer as elements hollow in the middle thin-walled sections (Figure 4). This resulted in a problem relating to the preparation of the bill of quantities from the BIM model. If the rebars were not hollow, the calculation of their quantity (weight in tons) would be automatic (using the volume and specific gravity of steel provided by the user).
Figure 4: Reinforcement erroneously introduced into the model a thin-walled section instead of reinforcement bars which are not hollow.
Another issue which can serve as an example is a beam which forms a part of a monolithic floor slab and the method of calculating concrete and reinforcement works (Figure 5). If the designer specifies in the figure the quantity of concrete works belonging to the floor slab and
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to the beam, then the reinforcement bars of the beam and the floor slab intercross [Kymmel, 2008]. The advice of a cost estimator is then required to solve the problem of the bill of quantities calculation.
Figure 5: Views of the beam and slab connection [Kymmel, 2008].
Reinforcements which are defined as one element for the whole building with no division into reinforcement for continuous footing, spot footing, beams, slabs, etc. (Figure 6) will also pose a considerable problem. If reinforcements are not assigned to individual structural elements made from reinforced concrete, a future cost calculation will be made more difficult as it will require the reinforcement bars to be divided into elements.
Figure 6: Reinforcement bars defined by the designer as one element for the whole building.
The difficulties relating to the specification of estimated elements can also be caused by the designers marking repeated elements for example walls which are not divided correctly into separate floors. An example of such incorrect assignment of walls to one of the layers using the CAD software is shown in Figure 7.
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Figure 7: Walls of one type assigned to two different floors.
The reasons for other problems related with the BIM-based construction works cost estimation are, among others: defining a few cost calculation items as one element (i.e. stairs defined as one element which includes the structure and balustrades). incorrect defining of elements in relation to the type of works (i.e. elements of sanitary fixtures assigned to the chapter Construction works instead of to Water and sewage installations). incorrect division of one element into a few smaller parts defined in different layers, as this causes the works of the same type to be valued on a few different occasions. In addition, the designers do not model all construction elements. That is why elements like excavations, shuttering or reinforcement works will not form a part of most of the BIM models. It is usually the cost estimator who introduces these elements and the related costs. The BIM model does not as a rule include non-material and legal costs, general requirements, indirect costs as well as means and methods of building. BIM on its own does not provide a comprehensive estimation of total costs of a project. The cost estimation automation process so far has been encountering obstacles related to the bill of quantity calculation. The lack of the required level of detail for the documentation description is combined with a lack of any design classification enabling the preparation of bills of quantities, cost estimations and the comparison of cost documentation. The classifications which can be found in Poland are used solely for statistical purposes. Currently, research is being carried out in relation to works systematics which can be used practically and the already existing systematics are being adapted, i.e. Omniclass. The above-mentioned classifications should reflect the structure of a building, for example a division into floors, segments and other characteristic components of a building, as this will simplify the identification of elements and the use of documentation. In practice, it all looks slightly different frequently a designer includes the walls of the next floor to the floor below or introduces erroneous terms
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which are then transported to the IFC file. The article authors also have in their experience examples of designers incorrectly rescaling some of the dimensions, which results in calculation errors of, for example, an area or volume. Consequently, there exists a need to verify and calculate these values regardless of the values which are entered into IFC by CAD systems. An example of such file is shown in Figure 8.
IfcBuildingStorey IfcWallStandardCase DCMaterialNode '1. Level 0 (+3670mm)' External Wall 'Plaster' 'Brick' 'Foamed Polystyrene' 'Concrete Block' 'Plaster' 'Width' 'Height' 'Length' 'GrossSideArea' 'NetSideArea' 'GrossVolume'
IfcQuantityLength IfcQuantityLength IfcQuantityLength IfcQuantityArea IfcQuantityArea IfcQuantityVolume
5,00 120,00 50,00 240,00 15,00 430 3670 7372,6896 27,057771 27,057771 11,292013
Figure 8: A fragment of the IFC file, with hierarchical structure [based on Tomana, 2011].
Another problematic factor is the lack of element libraries created with the BIM concept in mind. There are a number of libraries of finishing and furnishing elements for a building available on the market, however, there is a decisive need for structural elements (foundations, walls, ceilings, etc.) As a result, there exist considerable difficulties in combining price databases, technical specifications and other data with the particular elements of database libraries. The databases need to include many kinds of solutions, for example walls need to be listed in such libraries, and they need to relate with the appropriate cost databases. A separate problem which originates from the existing cost estimation methodology is the lack of price databases which agree with element libraries. BIM based cost estimation allows to perform bill of quantities automatically. BMI cost estimating is approximately 3040% shorter than non-automatic methods. Solving the problems outlined in the article will shorten the cost calculation procedure another 510% in average.
6. CONCLUSION
BIM does not eliminate the requirement of a correct cost calculation to be performed by a cost estimator, it only supports the cost estimation process itself. At is most basic level (which has a direct effect on cost calculation), the BIM concept allows to virtually visualize a structure and it collects information on dimensions, areas and cubic capacities of a building. The BIM concept, therefore, provides at least a partial and at the level of simplified calculations a complete, automation of the works bill of quantities, and in this context BIM is
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a revolutionary solution. Using BIM technology, allows us to integrate all sectors which collaborate on a given project. The BIM-based cost calculation procedure shortens the time required to prepare a detailed cost estimate, as it can resort to the data obtained from the virtual model of a building. It is particularly helpful if the model is amended by designers, as this presents an opportunity to effectively utilize the relationship between an executed change as its cost. The application of the possibilities provided by BIM-based cost calculation applications is to a great extent connected with design appropriateness. The problems outlined in this article and related with the BIM-based cost calculation software, which became apparent after their short trial period in Poland, are by and large caused by the errors made by designers in descriptions, figures or in the assignment of elements to the appropriate layers in the project. The introduction of a common format for the description of construction works and a uniform standard of design, as well as gaining of experience by the designers combined with a change in thinking about projects, should in the future eliminate a majority of these issues. What is required, however, are system alterations and training in regard to correct design procedures. At present, Poland is only at the beginning of its journey which leads to suitable and common application of the benefits offered by the BIM concept.
REFERENCES
Eastman C., 1999. Building Product Models: Computer Environments Supporting Design and Construction, CRC Press, Boca Raton FL. Hardin B., 2009. BIM and Construction Management proven tools, methods, and workflows, Wiley Publishing Inc. Indianapolis, USA. Juszczyk M., Zima K., 2010. Building Information Modeling in construction process, TECHSTA 2010 Management and Technologies for Sustainable Development in Building Industry, 1517.9.2010 Prague. Kozlovsk M., 2008. Inovcie v oblasti systmov projektovania stavieb/Innovation of construction designing systems. Kvalita Inovcia Prosperita/Quality Innovation Prosperity. Vol. 12, No. 2., pp. 1926. Kymmell W., 2008. Building Information Modeling: Planning and Managing Construction Projects with 4D CAD and Simulations, McGraw-Hill, USA. Popovas, V., Ustinovichius, L., Mikalauskas S., 2004. Technique for computer aided evaluation of economic indicators of a construction project, Selected papers of The 8th International Conference Modern building materials, structures and techniques, Vilnius, Lithuania, May 1921, pp. 242248. Sabol, L., 2008. Challenges in Cost Estimating with Building Information Modeling. Design and Construction Strategies, http://www.dcstrategies.net/pdf/2_sabol_cost_estimating.pdf (access 11.04.2012). See R., 2007. Building Information Models and Model Views part 1, Journal of Building Information Modeling, Fall 2007, pp. 2025. Smith D., 2007. An Introduction to Building Information Modeling (BIM). Journal of Building Information Modeling, Fall 2007, pp. 1214. Tomana A., 2011. Integracja projektowania i kosztorysowania na platformie BIM/Integration of design costing using BIM platform. Budownictwo i Inynieria rodowiska. Vol. 2, No. 3., pp. 401406.
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INTEGRATING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK & GENETIC ALGORITHM TO OPTIMIZE HIGH PERFROMANCE CONCRETE MIX DESIGN A MANAGEMENT PERSPECTIVE
Sherif Malek American University in Cairo, Cairo, Egypt, smalek@aucegypt.edu Kareem Zahran American University in Cairo, Cairo, Egypt, k.zahran@aucegypt.edu Ossama Hosny American University in Cairo, Cairo, Egypt, ohosny@aucegypt.edu Ahmed Elhakeem American University in Cairo, Cairo, Egypt, aelhakeem@aucegypt.edu
Abstract Compressive strength of concrete is highly affected by its mix design. Extensive research was done to improve the compressive strength of concrete by adding various additives to the ordinary concrete mix. The ordinary concrete mix usually consists of coarse aggregates, fine aggregates, cement and water with a standardized design procedure to follow. However, with the addition of additives to the concrete mix to achieve High Performance Concrete (HPC), there is no standardized procedure to follow that will allow you to find the proportions that will provide the desired results that will best fit the required design criteria. This paper introduces a generic 2-step framework/approach for optimum HPC mix design. The first step identifies the relationship between the proportions of mix ingredients and its corresponding compressive strength. The second step determines the optimum proportions of the concrete mix ingredients (mix design) that satisfy the desired strength. Following the framework, a model has been developed that integrates Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). The ANN model relates the concrete mix design parameters (input data), and the compressive strength (output data). The GA was built over the ANN as a backward analysis tool to help determine the optimum concrete mix design that provides the required compressive strength at the lowest possible cost. The approach is generic enough to be applied on different engineering design applications. Keywords: Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms, High Performance Concrete, Backward Analysis, Design Optimization.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Concrete has been a primary construction material due to its high workability, durability and low cost. Improving the performance of concrete has grabbed the attention of many researchers during the last decade. The advancements in concrete mix design increased the demand on high performance concrete (HPC). Currently high performance concrete is being used in many construction projects that require higher and better performance from concrete regarding its strength, workability, durability and life expectancy. High performance concrete is made by adding some chemicals and mineral admixtures to an ordinary mix of concrete consisting of water, cement and aggregates. As HPC doesnt have a standardized approach that is used to obtain an optimum mix design (desired compressive strength), researchers usually perform several trial mixes in order to achieve an optimum mix (Lim et al., 2004). This consumes time, effort, and money to get a desired strength. As a result, the need to generate a tool that follows a systematic approach to design HPC is of great benefit. This research introduces one of these procedures by utilizing historical data about mixes and proportions to predict the concrete strength without the need of performing new mixes or tests. This paper provides a model that utilizes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) to predict the compressive strength then reverse the process to reach an optimum design. ANN is trained to find the relation between the various mix design data, and the GA is used as a backward analysis tool that will find the optimum mix design of HPC that will provide a required compressive strength having minimum cost.
1.1 An overview of the GA and ANN in Concrete Mix design Artificial neural networks (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) has been widely used in the construction industry as prediction and optimization tools, respectively. In HPC, ANN has been used in the prediction of the compressive strength (Oztas et al., 2006). Due to the complexity of HSC, ANN has been applied on several concrete mix designs with their output being the compressive strength and slump. Oztas et al. (2006) developed an ANN model using Matlab. The inputs were the water to binder ratio, water content, fine aggregates, fly ash content, air entraining agent, super-plasticizer and silica fume replacement, and the predicted output was the compressive strength and slump. GA was also used in mix proportioning of HPC as it was based upon a number of mix tests that were used to generate a fitness function to get the final outputs of the tests using Statistical Packages for Social Science (SPSS) ver. 10 (Lim et al., 2004). Lim et al. (2004) developed a function statistically that provided a relation between the inputs and outputs. This function was used the fitness of GA chromosomes model during the optimization process using MATLAB ver. 5.1 to be able to optimize the final output strength of concrete mix design based on existing data. Some mix proportioning criterions were used as constraints for the GA optimization process while running to get realistic results.
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Genetic algorithm (GA) and artificial neural networks (ANN) have been integrated to generate an optimization tool that links inputs with outputs having no direct relation between each other. One of the applications of both ANN and GA was the optimization of the design of bridge decks (Srinivas and Ramanjaneyulu., 2007). The approach was divided into two steps; the first is based on a grillage analysis program about several deck configurations. The data have been used to build an ANN model connecting sectional parameters and design response of bridge deck. Secondly, GA is utilized to come up with a design considering minimum cost as its main objective function during the optimization process. In addition, the application of both ANN and GA has been also used for the optimization of solar screen designs based on life cycle energy and cost (Hosny et al., 2011). The design parameters of the solar screen such as the perforations ratio, depth/width ratio and window orientations were analyzed using professional energy simulation software to get the energy associated with these designs. The data obtained was used to train and test ANN spreadsheet model that uses the design parameters as an input variables, and generates energy as its output. The GA is then used to provide a near optimum design having the least life cycle energy and cost.
2. PROBLEM DEFINITION
Despite the advancements in the development of materials, their performance and specifications; it is very hard, and expensive for researchers to find a direct and logical relationship (formulation) between the various material components and the desired output. Currently, the most popular method to determine the output of a desired mix is done by performing several mix designs and implementing them in the lab to find the output of these mixes (trial and error). As a result, the optimization of a mix design to obtain the desired output is a very tedious task due to the complicated nature of the problem. These types of problems are common in many engineering applications due to the fact that the relation between the input and output parameters are not always readily available. Many researchers decided to rigorously study the relations between the design parameters and their performance measure as an output leading to the generation of specific programs/solutions to solve very specific problems. The main objective of this research is to structure a generic approach to find an optimum design through predicting the relationship among various inputs (e.g., design parameters), and corresponding outputs (e.g., performance measures). In this paper, Artificial Neural Network is used to find the relationship between the design parameters and performance measures, while Genetic Algorithms is used for the optimization processes. This approach is illustrated using a real life application of designing High Performance Concrete mixes, where the objective is set to minimize its cost and achieving a desired strength.
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3. PRPOSSED APPROACH AND PROCESS

The proposed approach to reach an optimum design, given a set of input and output data (e.g., Laboratory Tests), integrates two main processes. The first process is a prediction process using ANN, where the main target is to find a relation between the input and output data (e.g., mix design and corresponding strength). The second process would then perform a backward analysis/optimization using the prediction model derived from the first process to determine the optimum input (mix design) giving the desired output (compressive strength). Due to the nature of integration between both processes, the majority of the software packages and tools currently available in the market are not preferred as they operate with the Black Box characteristics (Adeli, 2001; Hosny et al., 2011). As a result, it is hard to extend the utilization of ANN beyond the prediction aspect (backward analysis/optimization). This is because the system that processes the inputs to predict the output is not clear to the user, and only available for internal calculations. Consequently, this limitation disables the reengineering component limiting the functionality of ANN to prediction only within the capabilities of the software package itself. A generic Framework has been developed to find the relationships between the input design variables and their corresponding output data, and optimize a design. The framework consists of three main modules that were integrated for data modeling and processing. As shown in Figure 1, the first module, the Logic Initiation Engine (LIE) was utilized to check the applicability of the ANN on such type of problem given the available data set at hand, in addition to checking the efficiency of the data provided. The second module, the Transparent Spreadsheet Artificial Neural Network (TSANN) that was developed to expand the functionality of ANN beyond prediction to allow backward analysis and optimization. Since the main approach depends on the optimization in the backward analysis, optimization was also used as a learning paradigm for the training of the TSANN. The weights between the various layers in the TSANN model represent the decision variables to be optimally determined. The objective was set to minimize the total error between the actual and predicted outputs of the training set as shown in Figure 1. The third and final module is the Design Optimization Engine (DOE) primarily performs a backward optimization that utilizes the trained and tested TSANN in module two as shown in Figure 1. With its unique modeling, the TSANN can function as an analysis platform that suits sensitivity, simulation, optimization, etc. For the backward analysis to reach an optimum design, the input layer of the TSANN will be the variable set of the optimization problem to be determined by the DOE. To ensure design practicality and applicability, the various and relevant range of constraints was defined, and the objective was to minimize the cost in order to reach the optimum configuration of inputs (mix design) giving the targeted output (compressive strength).
4. FRAMEWORK IMPLEMENTATION
As mentioned earlier, the implementation will be explained using a real engineering application of HPC design. The implementation requires gathering data (mix designs), developing the TSANN, and performing backward analysis.
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4.1. Data Gathering The data of 36 HPC mix design that applied silica fume and HRWRA (high range water reducing admixture) additives to concrete mixes, in addition to their associated compressive strength (28-day), was obtained from literature (Simon et al., 1997). A sample of the obtained data in is shown in Table 1, where the mix design, and their corresponding strength are illustrated.
Figure 1 Design Optimization Framework: Modules & Main Processes
Input Neurons Training Case # Water (kg) 122.3 122.3 126.6 Cement (kg) 361.1 337 323.3 Silica Fume (kg) 21.9 33.6 27.8 HRWRA (l) 5.66 4.59 5.12 Coarse Aggregate (dry) (kg) 829.9 834.4 857.5 Fine Aggregate (dry) (kg) 526.1 530.6 513.6
Output Neuron 28-day strength (MPa)
1 2 3
65.3 61 60.8
Table 1 Sample of Data Tabulation (Simon et al., 1997)
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4.1.1. Data Sufficiency and ANN Applicability Before proceeding in the development of the TSANN, the suitability of ANN to predict the relationship between the inputs and outputs, and the sufficiency of the data is checked. An add-in to Microsoft Excel (Neural-Tools) software application was used to check the ability of ANN to converge and achieve reasonable results with the available data. The Neural-Tool settings were adjusted to train on 75% of the data set (28-mixes). The remaining 8 mixes, representing 25% of the remaining data, were allocated for testing. The allowable error for training and testing was set to 10%. Result shows that ANN could be utilized to predict with good accuracy the relation between the various concrete mix variables, and the final compressive strength as illustrated in Figure 2. It was concluded that the neural network method was feasible, and could be more efficient than the more rigorous and timeconsuming statistical methods.
Figure 2 Neural Tools Model Performance
4.2. Transparent Spreadsheet Artificial Neural Network (TSANN) Model The TSANN model was developed using advanced spreadsheet modeling on Microsoft Excel. The TSANN Model consisted of an input layer with six nodes representing (water, cement, silica fume, HRWRA, coarse aggregates, fine aggregates) as shown in Table 1. Three hidden nodes (half of input nodes), in one hidden layer as recommended by Hegazy (1994) were implemented in to the model with the Sigmoid activation function. Finally, one output node representing 28-day compressive strength was applied. The workflow of the model is as follows: 1. Scale the input data (training set) between negative one and one. 2. Multiply the scaled data by weights (arbitrary initiated) between the input and hidden layers. 3. Activate the weighted input of the hidden node. 4. Multiply the activated hidden nodes by a new set of weights between the hidden nodes and the output node to produce scaled neural network prediction. 5. Scale back the neural network prediction. 6. Calculate and minimize the total Error of training cases. Table 2, shows the weights between the input and the hidden nodes (variables to be changed during neural network learning). The input (weighted sum) and output (activated input) of
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the three hidden nodes for the first four training cases are shown in Table 3. The output of Table 3 is similarly processed to reach the output node providing the prediction. The same data selection method that was used in the Neural-Tools was applied to the TSANN Model.
Table 2 TSANN Weights between Input & Hidden Layers
To train the TSANN model, GA was used to generate the various weights. The performance of the model was evaluated by minimizing the Total Root Mean Square Error (TRMSE). When evaluating the TRMSE, it was preferred that a small error exists as this error will improve the prediction performance of the model ensuring that it is not over trained to the current data only. Some of the weights that the GA changes for the training of the TSANN could be seen in Table 2 above.
TSANN Weight Processing
Table 3 Sample of TSANN Hidden Nodes Input and Output
4.2.1. TSANN Model Performance All of the data (training and testing) that was used within the model was used to evaluate the performance of the model within the prediction phase. It has been proven the adequacy and accuracy of the model for the prediction of the HPC strength was very high. As it can be seen in Figure 3a, the majority of the error that existed from the prediction of the compressive strength obtained from the trained data set (being approximately 82% of the cases evaluated) lie between +/ 2%. The remaining predictions being less than 18% of the trained data set were underestimated, which could be considered as a factor of safety. In addition, as it can be seen in Figure 3b, all of the results from the testing data set lie between 1% to 6% which indicates that the model is not over trained, performing really well, and is prepared for prediction.
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Figure 3a (Top) and 3b (Bottom) Model % Error Frequency Distribution
4.3. Design Optimization Simulation has been performed to generate a global picture about the various mix designs, and corresponding compressive strength frequency. With the unique modeling structure of the TSANN, Crystal Ball add-in tool for Microsoft Excel was used for simulation. The simulation program changed the various mix design (TSANN input nodes) using uniform distributions, and monitored the predicted compressive strength (TSANN output node). As it can be seen in Figure 4, the probability of achieving a HPC with a compressive strength greater than or equal to 56MPa is less than 3.5% after 100,000 simulation trials. As a result, the need of an integrated prediction/optimization tool may significantly and effectively reduce the amount of time and money required to find such design.
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Figure 4 Probability of Achieving HPC Mixes
GA along with the developed TSANN can be used to optimize the HPC mix design in a backward fashion. The predicted strength in the output node of the TSANN was selected to be an objective to be maximized or a constraint to reach a certain value. The optimization variables, on the other hand represent the mix design values (water, cement, silica fume, HRWRA, Coarse Aggregates, and finally, Fine Aggregate) located in the input layer of the TSANN are to be optimally determined by the GA, as shown in Table 4. In the case were the required strength was set as a constraint (greater than a certain value), the objective function was set to minimize the cost using the available unit prices of the various mix components (variables).
Forecast Values Forecast Number 1 Water 122.3 Cement 312.9 Silica Fume 22.0 HRWRA 5.66 Coarse Aggregate (dry) 887.6 Fine Aggregate 506.3 Final Calculation 81.8
Table 4 TSANN Model Prediction
To maintain the realism within the framework, and to ensure that realistic mixes were achieved, the GA was allowed to change the quantities of the variables with certain constraints applied being the possible maximum, and minimum values that were obtained during the data gathering and tabulation phase. This way, a flexible and generic application of the model to various fields is ensured. With the minimum cost set as the objective, the optimization model was able to design a mix that provided and optimum compressive strength of approximately 82MPa.
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5. CONCLUSION
This paper introduces a generic approach/framework to solve various engineering problems. The approach relies on prediction and backward analysis by integrating ANN and GA. The framework consisted of three main modules, the first module Logic Initiation Engine for checking the sufficiency of input data and applicability of ANN to the problem. The second module Transparent Spreadsheet Artificial Neural Network (TSANN) is a spreadsheet model for the architecture of ANN that uses optimization as a learning paradigm. After training, and testing, the TSANN was able to predict the output using the provided input data. The third module Design Optimization Engine (DOE) along with the TSANN where utilized to provide an optimized design (input) to achieve a desired output with the objective of minimizing the total cost, putting into consideration the various constraints/limitations. The framework was implemented on an engineering problem of HPC mix design. Given the desired compressive strength, the model was able to provide mix proportions with the minimum cost. The dynamic integration of the model and framework extended the utilization of ANN beyond the prediction aspect by allowing backward analyses. As a result, the model could be applied on various applications such as energy prediction, mix design for various materials, etc.
REFERENCES
Adeli, Hojjat. "Neural Networks in Civil Engineering: 19892000." Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering. (2001): 126142. Al-Tabtabai, Hashem, and Alex P. Alex. Using genetic algorithms to solve optimization problems in construction. Engineering, Construction and Architecture Management. (1999): 121132. Hegazy. T., Fazio, P., and Moselhi, O. Developing practical Neural Network applications using Back-propagation. Microcomputers in Civil Engineering, Blackwell Publishers, 9(2), (1994): 1451 59 Hosny O., ElHakeem A., El-Zafarany A., A life cycle energy and cost approach for optimal solar screen design, 3rd International/9th Construction Specialty Conference, 2011, CN-176 Lim, C.-H.; Yoon, Y.-S.; Kim, J.-H. Genetic algorithm in mix proportioning of high-performance concrete. Cement and Concrete Research 2004, 34, 409420. Oztas A, Pala M, Ozbay E, Kanca E, Caglar N, Bhatti MA. Predicting the compressive strength and slump of high strength concrete using neural network. Construct Build Mater 2006;20(9):76975. Simon, Marcia J., Eric S. Lagergren, and Kenneth A. Snyder. "Concrete Mixture Optimization Using Statistical Mixture Design Methods.". New Orleans, Louisiana: International Symposium on High Performance Concrete, 1997. 230244. Srinivas V. and Ramanjaneyulu K., An integrated approach for optimum design of bridge decks using genetic algorithms and artificial neural networks, Advances in Engineering Software, 2007, vol.38,no.7, pp.475487.
409
PREDICTION OF THE LEARNING CURVE IN ROOF INSULATION

Levente Mlyusz PhD, Attila Pm Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Faculty of Architecture, Hungary, lmalyusz@ekt.bme.hu, pematis@gmail.com
Abstract Mathematical learning curve models can be used in construction for the prediction of the time cost required to perform a future repetitive activity. The time required to perform a given activity is fall in a repetitive construction work. The main advantage of learning curves is to predict the time or cost needed to perform future activities. In this paper we evaluate mathematical models of different learning curves for flat roof insulation reconstruction work. Our evaluation is based on a survey done in 2009 spring in Budapest. The survey was done for the needed construction time by bound parts of the flat roof for the entire work and for the part technologies like the demolishing work or laying the boards of the heat insulation. Several mathematical models are identified and each of these are used to predict future performance. The models are compared and evaluated to each other and to the measured data.ere comes the text of the abstract. Keywords: learning curve, construction time estimation.
1. INTRODUCTION
The basic principles of learning curves are well understood. Learning curves imply that when performing numerous similar or nearly identical tasks the effort is reduced with each successive task. Learning curve theory can be applied to measure the cost and time, generally in units of time, to complete repetitive activities. The cumulative average time is the average time required to perform a given number of units. Method of cumulative average time was used in the original formulation of the learning curve method in (Wright, 1936) famous paper which was referred to as Wrights Model. In practice a few construction companies utilize learning curve computations on in-place construction costs on ongoing construction jobs to make projections on the costs and time of future work to be performed. There are little information in the literature about these uses, although it seems that learning curve principle can apply to repetitive construction operations (Hinze, Olbina, 2004). In this study we evaluate mathematical models of learning curves based on (Farghal and Everett, 1994), and investigate data presentation models based on (Farghal and Everett, 1997), and (Mlyusz and Pm, 2011).
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2. MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND METHODS

2.1 Mathematical models Learning curve theory is applicable to predict the cost/time of future work based on the assumptions: there are repetitive work cycles with same or similar working conditions in terms of technology, weather, workers as persons without delay between two consecuted items. The direct labour hour required to produce the (x + 1)st unit will always be less than the direct labour required for the xth unit. The reduction in time will follow a monoton decreasing function in Wright paper it is an exponential curve. In this present paper we calculate the labour hour/square meter for each repeated activity. Wright's linear model was
lny = lna + blnx;
or y = ax b ,
(1a)
where x is the cycle number, y is labour hours/square meter the time required to complete cycle x, a is the time required to complete the first cycle, and b is a constant that reflects the rate of learning. Wright discovered that labour cost declines at a constant rate, the learning rate, as production/cycles doubles. The mathematical models evaluated in this survey are in equation (1a), (1b) and (1c). Linear x, log y model: lny = lna + xlnb; or linear log x, y model: y = lna + blnx; or exp(y) = ax b , (1c) y = ab x , (1b)
where x is the cycle number, y is the time required to complete cycle x and a and b are parameters. In model In this paper we investigate on application of learning curves for flat roof insulation reconstruction work. The objective of the paper is to apply different methods of representing learning curve data and investigate which method can be used to give the most accurate approximation. Unit, cumulative average, moving average and exponentially weighted average with =0.3 and exponentially weighted average with =0.5, are presented to predict the time of an insulation work. Linear log x , y model is applicable only for small number of repetitive items because y is a decreasing function only if b<0 but in this case y .
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2.2. Data presentation
Unit is the original data that presents the time to perform one cycle of the insulation work. Cumulative average is in the work of Wright (1936). He discovered that cumulative average (CA) time decreased by a fix percent when output doubles. CA represents the average time or cost of different quantities (X) of units.
CAt = (Y1 + Y2 + ...Yt 1 + ... + Yt ) / t.
(2)
Where: t is the number of cycles. CAt is the cumulative average in cycle t. Yt is the unit data for cycle t. Moving average (MA) in present paper is the average time of the last 3 cycles. Although MA is an average like CA but in MA the most recent data are presented. Analyst can decide how far back in time the data are still relevant. More points will help smooth the curve. In extreme cases moving average are unit data or cumulative average.
MAt = (Yt + Yt 1 + Yt 2 ) /3 .
(3)
Exponential average (EA) is a weighted average of the most recent data and the previous one.
EAt = Yt + (1 )EAt 1 EAt 1 = Yt 1 + (1 )EAt 2
(4) (5) (6)
EAt 2 = Yt 2 + (1 )EAt 3 That is
EAt = Yt + (1 )Yt 1 + (1 )2 Yt 2 + (1 )3 EAt 3
(7)
Where EAt is the exponential average time for cycle t, EAt1 is the exponential average time for cycle t1. Yt is the unit data (time to perform activity) in cycle t and is a number, in this present paper it is 0.3 and 0.5. Our assumption is that between Yt and x between the time required to complete the activity for a given cycle and cycle number there is an exponential relationship, that is equation (1a) holds. So this is a straight line on log-log paper between logYt and logx and all the regression formulae can apply to this equation just as they do to the equation. Mathematically this latter is solvable for parameters a and b by least squares method. In the case of equation (1b) there is also a linear relationship between x and logYt so parameters a and b are calculated based on least squares method. In equation (1c) there is a linear connection
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between log x and Yt so parameters a and b are calculated as in previous case. LibreOffice 3.5 was used to find these parameters.
3. ANALYSING THE METHODS BY A REAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

3.1. Description of the project
The surveyed project was a reconstruction work of flat roofing. During the reconstruction process the circumstances and the weather was ideal for roofing (sunny, 2633C, no wind), the same amount of workers and the same persons did the entire erection. The technology was repetitive within one part. The workers knew that they are monitored but they were not informed what was measured and they were not disturbed. In this part of the reconstruction process the technology that was taken under consideration contained the followings activities: slicing up the old water proofing, laying down 10 cm thick heating insulation and fixing it to the roof by screws, spreading one layer of EPDM rubber water proofing and melting it to the cape of the screws. The joining, the fixing of the edges and the changing of the roof windows were not surveyed. The timer was stopped whenever the workers took a rest or did any kind of other activity that was not surveyed. The roof of the hall building was divided two 7 sections. The technology was repeated one after the other section as shown on Figure 2. The area of the sections was not unique, so during the evaluation we calculate by labour hours/square meter. During the process of the 5th section a storm made some damage why the workers had to repair the completed sections that were damaged. These two days were not measured but it set back their progress.
Figure 2: Hall building roof
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3.2. Evaluation by the different methods for the roof insulation of the hall building
Input raw data of the hall building are in column Unit. Dimension of the elements in columns Unit, CA, MA, EA(0,3), EA(0,5) is labour hours/square meter.
Exp. Av. 0,5 2,132 1,961 1,775 1,658 1,617 1,582 1,562
cycles 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Unit 2,132 1,789 1,588 1,54 1,575 1,546 1,541
Cumulative Av. 2,132 1,961 1,836 1,762 1,725 1,608 1,558
Moving Av. 2,132 1,961 1,836 1,639 1,568 1,554 1,554
Exp. Av. 0,3 2,132 2,029 1,897 1,79 1,726 1,672 1,633
Table 1. raw input data of learning curve
In linear log x log y model, linear relationships between ln(cycle) and ln(Unit), ln (cycle) and ln (CA), ln(cycle) and ln (MA), ln (cycle) and ln (EA3), ln (cycle) and ln (EA5) are calculated based on principle of least squares using Libreoffice 3.5 built in function linest. In the case of equation (1b) and (1c) linear regression was calculated between x and log y and between log x and y. Results of least squares method b is the slope and a' is the constant presented in tables below based on the first 5 cycles of table above.
methods Unit CA MA EA;0,3 EA;0,5 b 0,2057349857 0,1355482963 0,1929907932 0,1338228144 0,1802785541 a' 0,7343706753 0,7595739389 0,7811693854 0,7747219625 0,7707986877 learning rate 86,68% 91,03% 87,46% 91,12% 88,25%
ln(y)=a'+b*ln(x) ln(y)=a'+b*ln(x) ln(y)=a'+b*ln(x) ln(y)=a'+b*ln(x) ln(y)=a'+b*ln(x)
Table 2a. results of least squares methods for log x, log y model
methods Unit CA MA EA;0,3 EA;0,5
ln(y)=a'+x*ln(b) ln(y)=a'+x*ln(b) ln(y)=a'+x*ln(b) ln(y)=a'+x*ln(b) ln(y)=a'+x*ln(b)
b 0,9272347719 0,94831629 0,9236807815 0,9466900588 0,9304547497
a' 2,1470429628 2,2015414281 2,3038106086 2,2500005814 2,2576975828
Table 2b. results of least squares methods for linear x, log y model
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methods Unit CA MA EA;0,3 EA;0,5
y=a'+b*ln(x) y=a'+b*ln(x) y=a'+b*ln(x) y=a'+b*ln(x) y=a'+b*ln(x)
b 0,3734169768 0,2603855261 0,3563812488 0,2583353087 0,3369155785
a' 2,0823094136 2,1324931027 2,1683994076 2,1621302246 2,1511629748
Table 2c. results of least squares methods for linear log x, y model
In table 2a. b is the so called learning coefficient where b = ln of learning rate / ln of 2 (assuming that learning coefficient is constant when cycles are doubles) and a'=ln(a), see equation (1a). In the case of mathematical models presented in tables 2b. and 2c. parameter b has no such a meaning.
3.3. Results for the roof insulations of hall building
In Table 3a., 3b.,3c y values are presented based on the calculation of linear regression between log x and log y.
cycles 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Original 2,132 1,789 1,588 1,54 1,575 1,546 1,541 UNIT 2,084 1,807 1,663 1,567 1,497 1,442 1,397 CA 2,137 1,946 1,842 1,771 1,718 1,676 1,642 MA 2,184 1,911 1,767 1,671 1,601 1,546 1,5 EA; 0,3 2,17 1,978 1,873 1,803 1,75 1,707 1,672 EA; 0,5 2,161 1,908 1,773 1,684 1,617 1,565 1,522
Table 3a. Results of the different methods in man-hours/square meters for linear log x, log y model.
Because of the storm during the process of the 5th section there is a slightly higher value in 5th row of original data column in Tables (3a.), (3.b), and (3c.). Averages smooth the curve and reduce the effect of that extreme value. In Table (3b), y values are presented based on the calculation of linear regression between log x and y.
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cycles 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Original 2,132 1,789 1,588 1,54 1,575 1,546 1,541
UNIT 1,991 1,846 1,712 1,587 1,472 1,365 1,265
CA 2,088 1,98 1,878 1,78 1,688 1,601 1,518
MA 2,128 1,966 1,816 1,677 1,549 1,431 1,322
EA; 0,3 2,13 2,017 1,909 1,807 1,711 1,62 1,533
EA; 0,5 2,101 1,955 1,819 1,692 1,574 1,465 1,363
Table 3b. Results of the different methods in man-hours/square meters for linear x, log y model.
In Table 3c., y values are presented based on the calculation of linear regression between x and log y.
cycles 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Original 2,132 1,789 1,588 1,54 1,575 1,546 1,541 UNIT 2,082 1,824 1,672 1,565 1,481 1,413 1,356 CA 2,132 1,952 1,846 1,772 1,714 1,666 1,626 MA 2,168 1,921 1,777 1,674 1,595 1,53 1,475 EA; 0,3 2,162 1,983 1,878 1,804 1,746 1,699 1,659 EA; 0,5 2,151 1,918 1,781 1,684 1,609 1,547 1,496
Table 3c. Results of the different methods in man-hours/square meters for linear log x, y model.
In order to compare the different type of methods we calculate accuracy as a difference between input data and result. It means calculation of absolute value between the corresponding elements of Table (1.) and Tables (3a), (3b), (3c). For example in column of MA the first element in Table (4a.) is calculated:
Abs(2,132 2,184) = 0,052.

In row Accuracy 15 we add all the differences from cycle 1 to cycle 5, although in the case of averages the first two or three values are not real average values.
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cycles 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Accuracy 15 Accuracy 67
UNIT 0,048 0,018 0,075 0,027 0,078 0,104 0,144 0,246 0,248
CA 0,005 0,015 0,006 0,009 0,007 0,068 0,084 0,042 0,152
MA 0,052 0,05 0,069 0,032 0,033 0,008 0,054 0,236 0,062
EA; 0,3 0,038 0,051 0,024 0,013 0,024 0,035 0,039 0,15 0,074
EA; 0,5 0,029 0,053 0,002 0,026 0 0,017 0,04 0,11 0,057
Table 4a. Accuracy of the different methods linear log x, log y model.
UNIT 0,141 0,057 0,124 0,047 0,103 0,181 0,276 0,472 0,457
CA 0,044 0,019 0,042 0,018 0,037 0,007 0,04 0,16 0,047
MA 0,004 0,005 0,002 0,038 0,019 0,123 0,232 0,086 0,355
EA; 0,3 0,002 0,012 0,012 0,017 0,015 0,052 0,1 0,058 0,152
EA; 0,5 0,031 0,006 0,044 0,034 0,043 0,117 0,199 0,158 0,316
Table 4b. Accuracy of the different methods for linear x, log y model.
UNIT 0,05 0,035 0,084 0,025 0,094 0,133 0,185 0,288 0,318
CA 0 0,009 0,01 0,01 0,011 0,058 0,068 0,04 0,126
MA 0,036 0,04 0,059 0,035 0,027 0,024 0,079 0,197 0,103
EA; 0,3 0,03 0,046 0,019 0,014 0,02 0,027 0,026 0,129 0,053
EA; 0,5 0,019 0,043 0,006 0,026 0,008 0,035 0,066 0,102 0,101
Table 4c. Accuracy of the different methods for linear log x, y model.
Comparing Tables (4a) (4b) and (4c) it can be seen there are slight differences between the mathematical models. The original Wright method Cumulative Average method is one of the best in each mathematic model.
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Sum of these values from cycle 1 to cycle 5 are in row of Accuracy 15 and sum of the rests are in Accuracy 67. Less values in last two rows show more accurate result of learning curve methods. The best method is exponential average with =0.5, and second best is the other exponential average with =0.3. In order to compare the EA with =0.5 and unit data methods, estimate unit data Yt for 6th and 7th cycles from the best EA with =0.5. Using equation (1a):
1,565 = 0,5 * Y6 + 0.5 * 1,617 ,
where from
Y6 = 1,513.
It is closer to the original 1,546 than Unit data estimation: 1,442. Calculating Y7: 1,522 = 0,5 * Y7 + 0.5 * 1,565 ,
Y6 = 1,479.
It is also closer to the original 1,541 than Unit data 1,379.
4. CONCLUSIONS
In this paper different methods of the learning curve have been investigated to assess which one is the best the most accurate at predicting the time required to perform cycles in roof insulation repetitive work. Three mathematical methods and five data presentation methods were evaluated. This study was based on data of an insulation work performed in 2009 in Budapest. Results of this study show that in the case of equation (1a) linear log x log y exponential average with = 0.5 and cumulative average give the most accurate of estimation of the real data. In our simply prediction models the exponential average with =0.5 gives the most precise prediction for the future. In the case of (1b) linear x, log y cumulative average and exponential average with =0.3 give the most precise prediction and referring to equation (1c) linear log x, y cumulative average and exponential average with =0.5 give the most accurate result. It seems that data presentation has a bigger effect on the prediction than mathematical models have. In this paper the learning curve theory was applied to a small number of repeated items. Based on this study we can declare that if there is noise in the working conditions or a delay in working hours, probably the accuracy of predicting future performance using one of the average methods is better than using the unit data method. It is because an average type method helps smooth out some of the noise in data.
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This work is connected to the scientific program of the Development of quality-oriented and harmonized R+D+I strategy and functional model at BME project. This project is supported by the New Szchenyi Plan (Project ID: TMOP-4.2.1/B-09/1/KMR-2010-0002).
REFERENCES
Everett, G. and Farghal, H., 1994. Learning Curve Predictors for Construction Field Operations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management vol 120. 1994, pp603616. Everett, G. and Farghal, H., 1997. Data representation for predicting performance with learning curves. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management vol 123. 1997, pp4652. Hinze, J. and Olbina , S., 2008. Empirical analysis of the learning curve principle in prestressed concrete piles. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management vol 135. 2008, pp425431. Mlyusz, L. and Pm, A., 2011. ,Empirical Analysis of Learning Curve in Roof Insulation, Organization, Technology and management in Construction, Sibenik, 2011, ISBN 978-953-7686-01-7 Wright, T.P., 1936. Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of Auronautical Science, (Feb.), pp124125.
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DECIDING PROCUREMENT STRATEGIES FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS WHILE CONSIDERING OFF-SITE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
Pyong Su Min Master student, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, ajmbs1002@yonsei.ac.kr Woosik Jang Ph. D Student, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, woosik@yonsei.ac.kr Seung Heon Han Associate Professor, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, shh6018@yonsei.ac.kr Kang Wook Lee M.S & Ph.D Program Student, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, celebrity3@yonsei.ac.kr
Abstract Just-in-time (JIT) delivery is an important component of a lean supply system. However, in view of environmental impacts, adopting a lean principle is not always a good method. In particular, lean principles such as just-in-time occasionally lead to an increase in the number of deliveries and movements compared to other traditional procurement strategies. Previous research has focused on cost savings and Green House Gas (GHG) reduction using material replacements/changes or process innovations. But the majority of these studies have commonly assumed that each project has the same boundary conditions for off-site material delivery (e.g., traffic congestion, physical characteristic of materials). In reality, off-site conditions are more complex and varied depending on the unique characteristics of each material. Thus, this paper aims at clarifying the relationship between off-site conditions and better procurement strategies from the perspective of environmental impact in planning stage. Toward this end, this paper begins by developing the framework of environmental impact calculation for off-site delivery. Then, we analyze the various procurement strategies based on this framework and various environmental impacts. Following this basic approach for procurement strategies, three case studies were performed to evaluate the proposed framework. The proposed framework is expected to improve the performance of the construction project with considering the perspective of the environment impacts. Keywords: Procurement strategy Model, Environmental Impacts, External factor Just-in-Time(JIT), Lean supply system,
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1. INTRODUCTION
As a result of global warming, which was first discussed in 1972, the temperature of the earth's surface is steadily increasing. Various aspects of human existence are therefore threatened by unpredictable weather. To resolve these global environmental issues, each government creates and implements green policies based on the Kyoto Protocol. For example, the Korean Government established and proclaimed a Law on Green Growth last year. This law includes various practices for minimizing global warming via energy and resource conservation. As part of the Law on Green Growth, the government had construction firms consider the environmental impact of the construction machinery and materials used for projects in the procurement phase last year. Korean construction firms thus feel the need to establish new procurement strategies apart from those based on the lean construction method, which only considers duration and cost. Environmental impacts can be roughly categorized into internal and external factors, and environmentally friendly materials fall into the former category. In terms of internal factors, when analyzed based on construction industry standards, the difference between material requirements and device use is not great in the limited projects. Environmental impact is proportionate to the scale of the project. In contrast, when we consider environmental impact in terms of external factors, the impact and effect depend on the geographic location of the construction project, the location of the vendor, the distance between the open-air storage yard and the construction site, and traffic conditions. (Jang, 2011) In this study examines factors that influence off-site environmental impact (the material delivery process) based on the choice of procurement strategies in the project planning phase. Also investigate the relationships between the factors and suggest a simple framework, beyond the previous methodology that only considers on-site environmental impact.
2.1. Procurements and inventory management In general, Purchasing means the process of buying goods. Purchasing is the process of seeking the vendors and doing the negotiations for an affordable price and confirming the transit of the goods. Procurement is the broadly defined term that includes the buying function, as well as transit, storage, inspection and waste treatment (Kang, 2008). There is more research on the Procurement procedure than on buying, with a main concentration on inventory management. Procurement of materials is conducted through systems of structured planning and scheduling (Hisham, 2011); if these procedures are not appropriate, then financial losses occur. Accordingly, it is important for project managers to set up an efficient means of procurement planning and implement those means competently(Thomas, 2005). In this regard, Pan and Liao (1989) presented the model of economic order quantity in the same supply surroundings. Ramsesh (1990) developed the extended model for executing JIT procurement. Farzaneh (1997) also presented the results of comparative analysis between JIT and economic order quantity. Especially, purchase and storage take on the relation of a
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trade-off in construction projects, so it is an essential and basic process to consider the economic factor in regards to environmental impacts.
2.2. Lean and JIT (Just-In-Time) Lean means to be without fat or slimmed down. In industry, lean is the comprehensive concept for minimizing waste and improving productivity (Kim, 2000). Using the analysis of construction process removes the waste factors and implementing the JIT and Last Planner System (LPS) optimizes the production system. JIT purchasing is a step away from the traditional production methods. It can consist of minimizing waste and excess inventory so as to enhance the production of quality and low cost production in a timely fashion (Svensson, 2001). In the construction projects, JIT is also considered a good method for maximizing profits by reducing the cost of the procurement strategy. Pheng (1999) showed the results of procurement methods for applying JIT in each process and construction schedule. JIT has the advantage of saving the storage costs. However, it also causes the increase of transportation loads and environmental costs. In terms of environmental effects, it is rather a good procurement strategy for balancing with JIT and the traditional method within an economically acceptable range.
2.3. Procurement with consideration of the environmental impacts Previous studies have mostly concentrated on the life cycle phases or specific building materials. For example, Jung (2008) made a program for measuring the CO2 emission and energy consumption during the building life cycle. Park (2000) performed research on the quantification of environmental impacts. This study used the stage in which the material is divided into cycles of production, construction, maintenance, and dismantling. Baek (2011) studied the case in which life-cycle assessment (LCA) was carried out to evaluate the environmental impacts of the production of a metal can. Most of the research in this area has been performed in architecture field. By comparison, an infrastructure project like a road or railway has many differences from the construction of a building. As a specific example, road projects are usually consuming many materials having frequent deliveries. Recently, some studies that consider external factors have been performed by the analysis of external factors and calculating the environmental impacts (Kim, 2010). In this study, the main factors for choosing material delivery methods are selected, such as shipping distance, travel distance in the field, and changes in shipping volume. However, this study has also some limitations due to its consideration of environmental impacts at the project level; hence, it lacks the application to the features of a construction site at the operation level.
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3. PROCUREMENT STRATEGY MODEL

3.1. On-site and off-site environmental impacts During construction projects, Green House Gas (GHG) is released both on-site and off-site. On-site environmental impact is the direct result of the actual construction and the materials used in the process. For example, asphalt paving and the pouring of concrete have an on-site environmental impact. Previous studies have suggested procurement strategies that consider environmental impacts and that are based on projects with the same construction works, and particularly, the on-site-heavy studies are a majority. However, in terms of on-site environmental impacts, fixed materials and vehicle use are considered important factors. These things can be predicted and to a large extent can be adjusted using procurement strategies in the planning stages. However, off-site factors are heavily influenced by the building environment, and can have a great effect depending on how they are controlled. Recent studies have supposed and considered off-site conditions as surrounding conditions, that is to say the most ideal ones, its effects are smaller than it really is. However, factors that influence any off-site environmental impact are less predictable than on-site factors. Thus, it is necessary to determine the most important offsite factors and how to best control them in order to suggest effective environmentallyfriendly procurement strategies.
3.2. Field conditions and model assumptions Regarding the environmental impact of construction projects, only analytical tools based on internal (on-site) factors have thus far been used; this underscores the necessity of developing more effective procurement strategies. However, internal factors are easier to predict than external ones in terms of environmental impact and if they are controlled, we can better predict their effects. The conditions affecting external factors, however, change depending on the nature of the project. It is therefore hard to accurately predict and control them. In this study suggests a framework that can be used to calculate environmental impact. This framework considers the distance between the vendor and the open-air storage yard and between the open-air storage yard and the construction site, and the fuel efficiency of vehicles used in the delivery process, factors that have the most dramatic effect if they can be controlled. Also suggests procurement strategies that can be used in the project planning stage before construction and that focus on the environmental impact that occurs during the material delivery process, which is the most common external factor. The most important factor for construction site project managers in selecting a vendor is the distance from the construction site. In order to obtain the necessary materials in a timely manner and to reduce delivery costs as much as possible, it might be best to choose a vendor located close to the construction site. However, this does not necessarily guarantee reduced environmental impact. Depending on project managers tendencies or the goal of the project, other factors have to be considered besides the economic ones.
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Figure 1 shows simplified logistics circulation. Of course, there are other factors related to material delivery, but this study uses the above simplification in order to suggest a method and analyze various factors in the project planning phase. This model uses the distance between the vendor and the open-air storage yard and between the construction site and the open-air storage yard.
Figure 1: Site map
Vendor: the company that provides materials (rebars, cement, concrete, etc.) for the construction project. The Landscape and Building Construction Law recommends the vendor be within 515 km of the construction site if possible. Open-air storage yard: the place where materials to be used in the construction project are stored. Not all the materials delivered by a vendor are used right away and therefore they need to be stored until needed. Delivery means and conditions: materials are delivered by trucks, and vehicles used for delivery from the vendor to the open-air storage yard and from the open-air storage yard to the site are different. Vehicles used for delivery from the vendor are limited to three types (7, 15, and 25 ton-vehicles) and as small quantities are frequently delivered to construction sites, 7-ton trucks are fixed. Three assumptions are necessary in establishing an environmental impact model according to procurement strategies, as follows. 1) This model only considers environmental impact related to the delivery of materials. 2) The distance between the vendor and the open-air storage yard and between the open-air storage yard and the construction site is calculated using Korea Institute of Construction Technology civil engineering and landscaping estimations that consider the scale of the construction site. (KICT, 2011) 3) Vehicles used in the delivery process are selected as high frequency vehicles based on a real road construction estimate and vehicles fuel efficiency depends on vehicle specifications.
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3.3. Modeling 1) Fuel efficiency (fuel economy) The vehicles used for delivery are selected based on certain specifications and are commonly those listed in the table below. Type of truck 7 ton 15 ton 25 ton Efficiency of using in a. 7 km/L 5 km/L 3 km/L Type of truck 7 ton Efficiency of using in b. 7 km/L
Table 1: Delivery efficiency
Vehicles used for delivery from the open-air storage yard to the site are typically 7-ton trucks. On-site delivery by bigger vehicles usually does not occur and because timely delivery is needed, this study suggests the use of the three types of delivery vehicles listed above. 2) Delivery distance The distance between the vendor and the open-air storage yard is determined by project managers who consider all construction situations. This model uses delivery distance as a major factor and allows people to consider any environmental impact in the planning phase. Scenario No. 1 2 3 Distance from vendor 5 km 10 km 15 km
Table 2: Distance scenario
Distance from yard 2 km
Of course, delivery distances are different depending on the project; therefore, three scenarios about vendor distance are covered in this study, based on KICT estimations. The distance between the open-air storage yard and the construction site should be approximately 2 km, based on real road construction data. As the open-air storage yard is usually located in the general proximity of the construction site, materials should be delivered in a timely manner, except in specific cases. 3) Delivery times Delivery times are determined based on the scale of the construction site. When the scale of the construction site is large, the delivery of materials can be divided into two types: one method whereby the number of deliveries is decreased by using larger vehicles, and the
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other whereby more frequent smaller deliveries are made. This model uses the second method, which is considered the most economical. And divide given materials depending on the preceding delivery vehicles, and present them by scenarios. For example, a sack of cement is 40 kg, and rebars are also trading by the weight. Concrete is delivered by concrete mixer trucks, the capacity of which is fixed at 6 m3 per truck. Based on these facts, calculate delivery times using real project data. 4) Other conditions Environmental impact is calculated using scenarios in SimaPro, which is used worldwide. SimaPro presents environmental impact coefficients depending on fuel used for vehicles. Vehicles in this study use diesel fuel, the environmental impact coefficient of which is 0.714 per L. 5) Environmental impacts model When choosing a procurement strategy, the most important things are to reduce construction duration and costs. This is the basis of the JIT procurement method, created for and widely used in the manufacturing industry. However, as the environment is becoming an ever more important social issue, it is necessary to consider environmentally-friendly methods and not just those that save time and money. Moreover, the financial cost is incurred due to GHG emission like the Emissions Trading Scheme, and the values also is predicted to increase as time goes by. Thus, this model suggests a simple formula to investigate the environmental impact of projects that are based on controlling delivery time in order to reduce GHG emissions.
Environmental Im pact (E ) =
a b X (a ) + Y (b ) F (a ) F (b )
(1)
a: The distance between the vendor and the open-air storage yard b: The distance between the open-air storage yard and the construction site X(a), Y(b): Delivery times of variables a, b F(a), F(b): The vehicles fuel efficiency used for a, b A key factor is delivery time, which depends on the procurement strategies employed by contractors. The capacity of vehicles is determined according to the materials used for projects, and the vehicles fuel efficiency depends on the type of vehicle. The distance between the vendor, the open-air storage yard, and the construction site can be determined when the site is selected. It is not a variable a contactor can determine initially because it depends on the locale of the construction site. Thus, we can see that controlling delivery time depends on the construction site (the distance between the vendor and the open-air storage yard and between the open-air storage yard and the site). The procurement strategy should minimize any environmental impact.
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4. CASE STUDY
The preceding mathematical formula is used to calculate the environmental impact according to the delivery of materials to a site based on three assumptions. Thus, this study attempts to make a comparison between the validity of the preceding model and the environmental procurement strategies based on controlling delivery time using actual data. Compare and investigate environmentally-friendly methods using the model that calculates environmental impact according to procurement strategy. The case study scenarios are of three different types. Scenarios 13 use extreme stock strategies, 46 use traditional procurement strategies, and 79 use the maximum delivery times and JIT procurement strategies that provide materials in a timely fashion based on lean construction. Each scenario is identified by delivery times from the vendor to the open-air storage yard, and as scenarios are one case, the total amount of materials has to be same. Thus, by controlling delivery times from the open-air storage yard to the site, the total delivery times used in this model are similar.
4.1 Case 1 The first case is a road project, including structures (bridges, etc.), that is not downtown but in a mountainous area. Table 3 shows the results of environmental impacts based on different procurement strategy scenarios; the total delivery time is the same. A standard delivery times is 1,566 of scenario 46, which are traditional strategies, and I select delivery times through the amount of projects. The total delivery times in each scenario between the vendor and the open-air storage yard, and between the open-air storage yard and the construction site has values included in some extent of the standard delivery times. Scenario No. X(a) F(a)(km/L) a X(b) E 2,280 4,133 5,700 2,567 3,846 5,412 2,826 5,223
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
940
940 940 1,566 1,566 1,566 3,356 3,356
3
3 3 5 5 5 7 7
5
10 15 5 10 15 5 10
3,500
3,500 3,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 1,500 1,500
3,356
15
1,500
7,620
b: 2 km; F(b): 7km/L

Table 3: Environmental impacts
Table 3 shows the results of common knowledge in the site. Scenario 1, which is shaded, uses an environmentally-friendly procurement strategy and uses a method that stores maximally
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materials the site needs in the open-air storage yard, and works on the project. Scenario 9 is a method that brings needed materials in small quantities rather than storing large amounts in an open-air storage yard. This procurement strategy has the highest environmental impact, as delivery time increases. The environmental impact of scenarios 1 and 9 is determined by the difference in delivery time between the vendor and the open-air storage yard, and we can see that delivery time increases along with the environmental impact. That is to say, using JIT procurement strategies results in financial effects such as the reduction of stock management costs, etc., but it is not a good method in terms of the environment, as the environmental impact almost doubles depending on the increase in delivery times. On the contrary, storing stock, as in scenario 1, requires a very large open-air storage yard. This is perhaps not the most economical strategy, but it is an environmentally-friendly method.
4.2 Case 2 Case 2 has the same conditions as Case 1, involves a project located in a mountainous area, and includes structures (bridges, etc.). In comparison with Case 1, we can see the change in the environmental impact only using delivery time under the same conditions. Scenario X(a) No. 1 159 2 159 3 159 4 265 5 265 6 265 7 568 8 568 9 568 b: 2 km; F(b): 7km/L F(a)(km/L) 3 3 3 5 5 5 7 7 7 a 5 10 15 5 10 15 5 10 15 X(b) 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 1,000 800 800 800 E 608 873 1,138 551 816 1,081 634 1,040 1,446
This study defines traditional procurement strategies that are not one-sided and manages materials, unlike the other two strategies. Lean construction methods are not used and delivery is based on the JIT method, as it requires a large-scale open-air storage yard and is economically efficient. This study uses a strategic procurement method, whereby stock is stored in an open-air storage yard and materials are delivered and used when needed, unlike the two preceding extreme cases. Table 4 shows that scenario 4 uses a traditional procurement strategy that causes the least environmental impact and that scenario 9 uses lean construction methods that cause the greatest environmental impact, as many deliveries are made in a way similar to Case 1. There are almost three times differences in the amount
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of environmental impacts between two scenarios; thus the difference imposes a burden on project managers in the environmental aspect.
4.3 Case 3 The preceding model has six variables, and we can see delivery time in the scenarios is the most significant valuable. Thus, as we can see in the analysis of Case 1 and Case 2, procurement strategies chosen for financial reasons result in significantly more environmental damage as the delivery time is comparatively higher compared to other strategies. Thus, in general, procurement strategies using lean construction methods have economic advantages but negatively affect the environment. Scenario X(a) No. 1 607 2 607 3 607 4 1,012 5 1,012 6 1,012 7 2,168 8 2,168 9 2,168 b: 2 km; F(b): 7km/L F(a)(km/L) 3 3 3 5 5 5 7 7 7 a 5 10 15 5 10 15 5 10 15 X(b) 10,000 10,000 10,000 7,500 7,500 7,500 5,000 5,000 5,000 E 5,012 6,023 7,035 4,012 5,024 6,036 3,549 5,097 6,646
According to the results in Table 5, scenario 3 has the biggest environmental impact and scenario 7 has the lowest. The environmental impact of scenario 7, which uses lean construction, is only half in comparison with the largest on record. These results may contradict many peoples understanding that lean construction has a negative environmental impact.
4.4 Discussion Establishing plans based on general situations of projects, we make the present strategies referring to data about the same construction works of the past (road and railway construction projects, etc.). Previous studies have suggested the same procurement strategies without considering other factors when they are the same construction works. However, this is applicable only to the environmental impact of internal factors (on-site) that
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depend on the scale of the project. For past data, the amount of materials was calculated depending on the scale of the project. We can predict strategies to reduce the environmental impact based on the results, but these things are predictable in terms of the internal factors. Thus, this study selects delivery time as an important environmental factor and analyzes the amount of environmental impact by situation in order to investigate the environmental impact. Regarding the external (off-site) factors, the ability to predict the environmental impact varies greatly, depending on project managers choices. Thus, proper procurement strategies to minimize the environmental impact must be employed after referring to the results of the case studies. The surrounding environment of construction sites and the conditions surrounding the delivery of materials are two critical things that must be considered in the planning phase of projects.
5. CONCLUSION
Construction firms have been divided and managed materials and the construction machinery s in the on-site aspect. Studies about environmentally-friendly materials and methods to minimize the environmental impact have been conducted. However, we should know that the volatility of on-site is not high. For materials use only depends on the extension of roads and the structure of bridges, tunnels, etc. A limitation is the fact that the degree of environmental impact calculated based on on-site factors does not make a distinction depending on construction works and the site situations. These results can cause a gap between research and business practices. Thus, this study suggests a model to investigate the best procurement strategies in the planning phase of projects according to off-site conditions by considering the conditions of the actual construction site. As it is hard to suggest precise procurement strategies owing to limited data in the planning phase, this study suggests a simple mathematical model based on several assumptions. Currently, construction projects mainly use procurement strategies based on lean construction principles. However, as the procurement strategies are faithful to the basic concept of JIT, delivery time increase and there is a negative environmental effect. However, the results of the case studies show that procurement strategies can be changed depending on a projects surrounding environment, and we cannot select only one strategy according to simple causation. Thus, in selecting procurement strategies, various conditions such as the location of the vendor, traffic conditions, and the scale of projects have to be considered. This study has several limitations. The suggested model for calculating environmental impact processes external elements as assumptions, and cannot consider all possible environmental impacts of real construction sites. However, as this study focuses on delivery time as an important factor negatively affecting the environment, we can say it has significant meaning as a basic study to optimize procurement strategies.
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6. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research was supported by a grant from the Gas Plant R&D Center funded by the Ministry of Land, Transportation, and Maritime Affairs (MLTM) of Korean government.
REFERENCES
Arbulu, R. J., Tommelein, I. D., Walsh, K. D., and Hershauer, J. C.,2003. Value stream analysis of a reengineered construction supply chain. Build. Res. Inf., 312, pp. 161171. Farzaneh F. 1997.A Comparative Analysis of Inventory Costs of JIT and EOQ Purchasing, International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, Vol. 27 No. 8, pp.496 Hendrickson, C., Horvath, A., Joshi, S., and Lave, L. B.,1998. Economic input-output models for environmental life cycle analysis. Environ. Sci. Technol., 327, pp. 184191. Hisham Sain et al, 2011, Optimizing material procurement and storage on construction sites, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 137, No. 6, pp.421431. Minwoo Kang, 2008, Proposal of Overseas Plant Projects procurement process, pp.1927. Pan, A.C. and Liao, C. (1989). An Inventory Model under Just-in-Time Purchasing Agreement, Production and Inventory Management Journal, 1st quarter, pp.4952 Park, Moonseo, and Chun, Myunghee et al, 2011. Optimum Delivery Frequency for reducing construction logistics cost under a carbon taxation, KICEM, Vol.12, pp. 7382. Ramasesh, R. V. 1990. Recasting the Traditional Inventory Model to Implement Just-in-Time Purchasing, Production and Inventory Management Journal, 1st quarter, pp. 7175. Thomas et al, 2005, Fundamental principles of site materials management, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 131, No. 7, pp.808815. Woosik Jang et al, 2011, Previous study of the procurement method for considering environmental impact and the characteristic of material, 50th annual conf. of the Korean Civil engineering. Yong-Woo Kim et al, 2010, Assessing the environmental impacts of a lean supply system: Case study of high-rise condominium construction in Korea, Journal of Architectural Engineering, Vol. 16, No. 4, pp.144150.
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CONSTRUCTION MANAGERS LIBRARY AS A NEW METHOD OF PROMOTION, CERTIFICATION AND MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF MANAGERIAL SKILLS ACCORDING TO THE EU REQUIREMENTS
Andrzej Minasowicz Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland, a.minasowicz@il.pw.edu.pl Janusz Kulejewski Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland, j.kulejewski @il.pw.edu.pl Andrzej Foremny Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland, a.foremny@il.pw.edu.pl Pawe Kluczuk Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland, p.kluczuk@il.pw.edu.pl Aleksander Nica Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland, a.nical@il.pw.edu.pl
Abstract The paper presents the first two parts of the project carried out under the Leonardo da Vinci Programme financed from UE named: Common Learning Outcomes for European Managers in Construction whose main purpose is to complement the professional qualifications for managers in construction. Implementation of this objective is possible through the creation of an appropriate database user, defined as the Construction Managers Library. The themes in the first part of the project are a response to market demand as it relates to Project Management in Construction, Human Resources Management in Construction, Partnering in Construction, Business Management in Construction Enterprise, Real Estate Management, Economy and Financial Management in Construction and Construction Management. Created in the second part of the draft list of manuals covers issues associated with Risk Management in Construction, Process Management Lean Construction, Computer Methods in Construction, PPP Projects in Construction, Value Management in Construction and Success Factors Good Practice. The project is being carried out in cooperation with many renowned universities in Europe, such as Warsaw University of Technology, University of Salford, Politechnic University of Valencia, Darmstadt University of Technology, University of Minho and KH Kempen University College (Associated to K.U. Leuven) and organizations of certified construction managers, which include, among others: The Chartered Institute of Building, The Association of European Building Surveyors and Construction Experts and Polish Association of Building Managers. In the authors opinion, foreseen manuals will become a new tool allowing promotion, certification, comparison and recognition of construction
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engineers and managers competence on European, domestic and sector level. Additionally, the manuals will facilitate process of standardization (in all 15 countries associated in AEEBC, and other also) of certification process of engineers applying for the title of EurBE. Results of the project will improve didactic process and qualifications recognition of EU managers in construction. Keywords: computer methods, lean construction, project management, risk management, value management and engineering.
1. INTRODUCTION
Construction Managers library meets the criteria of European Directive No 89/48/EWG on regulated professions in respect to scope of recognition, maintain of high standard in professional disciplines, promotion and certification of qualifications by international associations and organizations also from construction sector. Construction sector in the European Union is one of the most important branches of economy. Through realization of construction objects and employing several million of people it plays a very important role in European integration. The main task of the project is to deepen and improve ideas mentioned in the directive, which leads to creation of European system of comparison, certification and mutual recognition of managerial qualifications in construction.
2. DESCRIPTION OF THE CONSTRUCTION MANAGERS LIBRARY

2.1. Aims Profile of construction managers education, responsible for cooperation in the field of construction in the European Union developed differently in countries with command economy and market economy. Taking into consideration minimizing the disproportion in construction management knowledge between these countries Warsaw University of Technology applied for the grant from Leonardo da Vinci Program. As a result of the grant common construction managers base of knowledge (table 1) was created that is honored by leading professional construction associations in United Kingdom and other European countries associated in AEEBC association.
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Real estates
Real estate management
Exploitation and maintenance of real estates Management of production and services Organisation of investment process Technology of construction
E
Construction companies Project management Construction management Production processes Management in construction company Engineering of investment processes General basis of knowledge Engineering of production processes Marketing in construction Construction investments Building objects Building materials Physics and mechanics of buildings Engineering of building processes and building site Human resources management Ecology on investments and construction Ergonomy and safety of work Basis of ergology knowledge
Types of organisational units
Domains of knowledge
About object
About subject
Table 1: Structure of knowledge base
The books that are presented in the farther part of this referee are selected elements from the base structure. This base of knowledge forms a foundation of recognition and certification of managerial qualifications in construction, in European Countries. Managerial knowledge used in construction, varies from that necessary for industrial production. There were also created curricula for complementary postgraduate studies, as well as rules and criteria of certification. Without these manuals it is impossible to launch complementary studies, promoting recognition of qualifications and accreditation of construction managers in the European Union. Main results from previous projects were put into practice by i.e.
Technology of production Basis of mechanization and automation About technical elements Technology Management and administration of real estates Construction company management Construction company organisation Organisation of building site Organisation Organisation and control of production Management of building site Basis of organisation and management in construction Regulation Efficiency of exploitation and real estates valuation Finance management Efficiency of investment Cost calculation Economics Economics
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3 4 5 6 7 Disciplines of knowledge
creation of Polish Association of Building Managers (PSMB) and its close cooperation with The Chartered Institute of Building (CIOB) and The Association of European Building Surveyors and Construction Experts (AEEBC), what assures European dimension of the project. The manuals became a new tool allowing promotion, certification, comparison and recognition of construction engineers and managers competence on European, domestic and sector level. The manuals allow process of standardization (in all 15 countries associated in AEEBC, and other also) of certification process of engineers applying for the title of EurBe. As a result of the project, a set of manuals was created called Construction Manager Library, consisting of 7 books (1st edition of the project) and 6 books (2nd edition of the project). There are 6 new books in progress (3nd edition of the project). Construction Managers library is a valuable tool for: Promotion of qualifications transparency through creating new tools allowing to present, compare and certify managerial qualifications of construction engineers Preparation of full base of didactic modules and manuals, allowing to take all forms of studies complementing technical knowledge of construction engineers with compendium of knowledge necessary to independently run a business on the European constructioninvestment market. These activities particularly apply to countries, where as a result of inertia pace of structural changes in education there is still one technical profile of educating young construction staff Creating full content-related, methodological and concept base, making up a base for recognition, equalization, completion of managerial qualifications in construction according to European standards in all European countries. Creating European system of passports (EurBE) for professional group of construction engineers. AEEBC promotes the EurBE as an equivalent for EUROPASS title for construction managers, which is obtained through a number of courses basing on the set of manuals created in this project. Introducing into European publishing market new books, containing full compendium of managerial knowledge in construction will promote a social dialogue, related to adjusting education profile to the needs of labour market. Goals of the Project were realized by introducing contents of manuals, selected in previous LdV Project areas of knowledge wide area of construction management and project management. Results of the Project are used for recognition of construction managers qualifications, active on EU market. The tool addressing programmes objectives is a set of manuals, containing necessary knowledge for certification of managerial qualifications of construction engineers. This base became a common criterion for recognition of qualifications by AEEBC and other European organizations gathered in that association. It facilitates transparency of engineers qualifications on European construction market. The manuals became an important didactic material for tutors on universities, and i.e. students taking part in Erasmus programme. Fulfilling projects aims is ensured by system of
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complementary postgraduate managerial studies, leading to increase of competence and qualifications of construction engineers, and on its basis, certification of construction managers competence. AEEBC and other associations assure continuation of certification system and recognition of managerial qualification.
2.2. Partners Partners that took part in creating Construction Managers Library are presented in the table 2:
Edition
CIOBIE
AEEBC
PSMB
M1 M2 M3 1st M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 2nd M10 M11 M12 M13 M14 M15 3rd M16 M17 M18 M19 Table 2: Partners of the Construction Managers Library
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KEMP
UDM
PBCP
WUT
CIOB
TUD
UPV
UoS
No
List of partners of the Construction Managers Library: Department of Construction Engineering and Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering Warsaw University of Technology (WUT) Association of Building Surveyors and Construction Experts (AEEBC) Technical University of Valencia (UPV) Chartered Institute of Building (CIOB) Chartered Institute of Building Ireland (CIOBIE) Polish British Construction Partnership (PBCP) Polish Association of Building Managers (PSMB) University of Salford (UoS) Technical University of Darmstadt (TUD) University of Minho (UDM) K. H. Kempen University College (KEMP)
2.3. Description of the books M1: Project Management in Construction The first manual presents complex, modern knowledge concerning project management including quality and quantity of product. Project management has a strong tradition in the construction industry and is widely used on projects of all sizes and complexity. Even so, many projects do not meet their required performance standards or are delivered late or over budget. These issues can be directly addressed by raising the standards of project management within the construction industry and more specifically improving the skills of project managers. The value added to the project by project management is unique: no other process or method can add similar value, either qualitatively or quantitatively. M2: Human Resource Management in Construction The purpose of this manual is to inform of the scope and requirements of human resource management. Firstly, so that the construction industry person can knowledgably communicate with human resource management professionals, and secondly so that all construction personnel comply the basic requirements of good human resource management principles. This manual begins by examining the links between the roles, responsibilities, obligations and duties of the various parties associated with construction activity. It then considers the links between people and performance at work and concludes with essential considerations for the manager. The syllabus is equally applicable to consultancy organisations and construction company personnel. M3: Partnering in Construction In the manual there is presented different attitude to the relations between various stakeholders in the construction industry. There is a need of change the perception of other
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participants from opponents to partners. Partnering applies to the whole business process. There are clearly benefits for contractors to partner with their clients but for the real benefits to be realised it is essential that they partner with their supply chain. In addition to reducing costs partnering can also improve service quality, deliver better designs, make construction safer, meet earlier completion deadlines and provide everyone involved with bigger profits. Partnering means working in cooperation with the construction industry firms you employ to find better ways of working together that best serve the interests of everyone involved. It requires all the individuals and firms involved to agree how they will make decisions, including how they will resolve problems. It requires them to agree specific improvements to their normal performance that they will seek to achieve. M4: Business Management in Construction Enterprise This manual begins by examining the links between the different types of construction organisations and the business structures that they can adopt. It then considers the links between the critical factors of: risk, value, cost and how these factors affect decision making. Internal performance is demonstrated by evaluating productivity and benchmarking. The module concludes by showing the links to increasing workload availability through marketing. M5: Real Estate Management In the first part real estate management phase is presented in the context of the investment cycle. Also issues of technical and economic usage of real estate, depreciation and amortization methods as well as characteristics of land property and demolition. In the next parts authors included information concerning real estate : demand and supply forces on the market, trends, issues and principal rules crucial for each property manager, theory and practice of valuation, functions and all types of property values, procedures of real estate valuation, main elements of operational real estate management, types and characteristic of the routine processes, issues concerning marketing, human resources, technical resources, operations and financial management, cost formation and accounting issues crucial for each company, methods of calculating operations effectiveness, along with costs and income analysis. M6: Economy and Financial Management in Construction In this manual authors presented fuzzy sets theory as a method of measuring effectiveness of investment. This manual includes new view on economy and financial management in division for different phases of construction process phase: investment, preconstruction, construction and operational. M7: Construction Management The purpose of this manual is to present construction management process, concentrating on new techniques which can improve general productivity and performance. Manual presents new forms of procurements, electronic project administration and innovations in technology and quality management.
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M8: Risk Management In this manual various tools and techniques for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, assessment, monitoring and control are presented together with examples. In the beginning of the manual authors explained risk concept, basic risks of construction projects and risk management process overview: identification, assessment, mitigation and monitoring. There is an explanation of risk management in different types of contracting and different stages of investment process. M9: Process Management Lean Construction The central part of the lean management idea is generation of value and elimination of any waste which emerges within the framework of manufacturing of goods and services. The manual presents methodology used to achieve these goals in addition with examples of application. M10: Computer Methods in Construction In the manual there is a wide view over computer aided techniques in different parts of construction: design, structural analysis, tendering and in project management. In the 2nd part of manual innovations and new developments in construction project management: sensor-aided controlling, simulations, digital documentation, project platforms and Building Information Model with tools were presented. The use of computer methods has fundamentally changed many processes in the construction industry. Todays technologies for data processing, data storage and data transfer support the design, realisation and operation of buildings in various ways. In doing so, the wide range of software tools in the construction sector is hard to overlook. M11: PPP Projects in Construction The manual presents general PPP concept with advantages and pitfalls for public sector, investors, banks and contractors. It later explains risk distribution and management, procedures and different case studies. PPPs are becoming increasingly commonplace in the world as an arrangement between the public and the private sectors to finance, design, build, operate and maintain public infrastructure or services (to the extent consented by the national legal frameworks and public administration practices of each country). Following the evolution of PPPs for infrastructure projects, the forms of contracts have also changed, depending on the degree of risk allocated between partners, the amount of expertise required from each partner to negotiate the contract and the potential implications for taxpayers. Geographically, PPPs have also spread significantly in Europe and other countries (Australia and the United States) but have had little impact in others (Canada, Japan, and South Africa).
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M12: Value Management in Construction Value Management (VM) and Value Engineering (VE) are techniques concerned with defining, maximizing and achieving value for money (VfM). These are systematic team based collaborative approaches, initially pioneered by the United States practitioners during the Second World War, to secure maximum output from limited resources. The 1st part of the manual presents concept and different techniques of value management, ethos and 2 different case studies. The 2nd part focuses on fuzzy sets use in time-cost analysis, multicriteria selection of the best offer in tender process and effectiveness analysis of construction projects. M13: Construction Projects Good Practice This manual include collected reports from best-managed projects which lead to the conclusion that, given the character of the industry, it is difficult to establish a set of principles or practices whose implementation would result in the successful accomplishment of every project. Nevertheless, practical experience gained from various projects enables us to define a set of guidelines that should make the execution of a project compliant with the assumed time, cost and quality criteria. On the example of 7 case studies authors presented good practice framework and range of variables decisive for project success. M14: Due-diligence in Construction in progress M15: Motivation and Psychological Aspects in Construction Industry in progress M16: Professionalism and Ethics in Construction in progress M17: Sustainability in Construction in progress M18: Health and Safety in Construction in progress M19: Pathology in Construction in progress
3. CONCLUSIONS
Construction Managers Library contributes to the following changes in national vocational training and practices: There will be created full base of didactical modules and manuals allowing to recognize qualifications and will lead to managerial education in construction, Creation of manuals promotes social dialogue, concerning a need of adjusting education system to the needs of European labour market in construction,
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There is a possibility and opportunity to launch postgraduate complementary studies for construction managers, in order to certify and recognize their qualification, The project ensures construction managers recognition of their qualifications by international network of professional association such as CIOB, AEEBC gathering European organizations of managers in construction.
REFERENCES
A.Minasowicz, P. Nowak, J. Zawistowski, 24.09.2004. Model of Certification and Mutual recognition of Managerial and Linguistic Skills in Construction According to the Requirements of the European Union. 8th Baltic Region Seminar on Engineering Education, UICEE, Kaunas, Lithuania A.Minasowicz, P. Nowak, J. Zawistowski, 2009. Development of Educational Opportunities for European Construction Industry. INTED International Technology, Education and Development Conference), Valencia, Spain. A. P. Minasowicz, P. O. Nowak, J. J. Zawistowski, 2023.03.2012. EU Funded Projects Best Tools for Interoperability Enhancement in Construction Industry. I-ESA, Interoperability for Enterprise Systems and Applications. Shaping Enterprise Interoperability in Future Internet conference, Valencia, Spain. P. Nowak, 1719 May 2012. Construction Managers Library. Tools for Building Experts Qualifications Recognition across EU, WCCEE , Valencia, Spain P. Nowak, 1923 June 2011. EU Funded Projects Best tools for Construction Specialists Education. MISBE 2011 (Management and Innovation for sustainable Build Environment), Amsterdam, The Netherlands P. Nowak, 1215 April 2011. Narzdzia edukacyjne dla inynierw badawcze programy europejskie. LOGITRANS VIII konferencja naukowo-techniczna logistyka, systemy transportowe, bezpieczestwo w transporcie, Szczyrk, Poland. Nowak P. 69 December 2010. Metoda distance learning w podyplomowym nauczaniu menederw budowlanych. TRANSCOMP International Conference Computer Systems Aided Science, Industry and Transport, XIV. Zakopane, Poland Nowak P. 6/2010. Metoda distance learning w podyplomowym nauczaniu menederw budowlanych. Logistyka, (November/december), p. 16. P. Nowak. 12/2009. Edukacyjne projekty wspfinansowane przez UE wsparciem dla rozwoju nauczania w zawodach budowlanych, CZE II. Magazyn Autostrady, p. 2428 A. Minasowicz, P. Nowak. February 2008. Doskonalenie i uznawanie kwalifikacji kadr budownictwa w UE rezultaty projektw Leonardo da Vinci. Inynier i budownictwo, p. 5052, 2 (48) A. Minasowicz, P. Nowak. 2008. Program Leonardo da Vinci narzdzie doskonalenia, metod ksztacenia ustawicznego w budownictwie, article in Nowoczesne Budownictwo Inynieryjne (No 1/16), p. 7273 A. Minasowicz, P. Nowak. 46.06.2007. Leonardo da Vinci Programs Useful Tool for Improvement of the European Construction Companies Performance, article at 13th International Conference on Concurrent Enterprising, p. 7786, Sophia Antipolis, France.
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DISTANCE LEARNING WITHIN MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION POLISH AND NORWEGIAN EXPERIENCES WITH EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE
Andrzej Minasowicz Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland, a.minasowicz@il.pw.edu.pl Janusz Kulejewski Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland, j.kulejewski@il.pw.edu.pl Andrzej Foremny Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland, a.foremny@il.pw.edu.pl Pawe Kluczuk Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland, p.kluczuk@il.pw.edu.pl Aleksander Nica Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland, a.nical@il.pw.edu.pl
Abstract The paper presents the project which created two innovative courses organized in distance learning mode of teaching: Economy and financial management in construction and Construction management. The need for the courses was confirmed through numerous research works, projects and contacts with Polish and European construction companies, realized within the Leonardo da Vinci Programme. Operational goal of the project was to increase the attractiveness of teaching at Warsaw University of Technology and to increase the qualifications of managerial staff running the projects financed from EU funds. Detailed goal, realized within the framework of the project, was creation of the didactical internet platform for teaching elements of management in construction together with didactical materials and methodology, both in English and Polish. Partners in the project were: Warsaw University of Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), The Foundation for Scientific and Industrial Research (SINTEF) and Polish British Construction Partnership Ltd. that provided representatives of SME in construction industry to adapt the course content and methods of science to their requirements. The project, through the cooperation of partner institution has increased social and economic integration of EEA countries. Real needs of the participating institutions have been met and will be met by introducing wider modern methods of distance learning. Research and pilot projects carried out by WUT under the Leonardo da Vinci projects were used in this project to develop substantive content to the internet platform. In the authors opinion the final beneficiaries of the project will be employees of small and medium-sized (also large) European construction companies participating in project financed from EU funds and students, because the
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products of the project will be used in the teaching process at WUT, especially at postgraduate studies. Keywords: blended learning, e-learning, management in construction.
1. INTRODUCTION
The project began in March 2009 and ended in June 2011. Partners in the project were: Warsaw University of Technology (WUT), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), The Foundation for Scientific and Industrial Research (SINTEF) and Polish British Construction Partnership Ltd. (PBCP). Activities during the project were related to development of studies in English and Polish. Additionally, the basic function was to develop a number of new courses, modules and curriculums as well as to modify the existing ones. New curriculums have come into being in cooperation with sector of small and mediumsized enterprises. The need for the courses was confirmed by own experience of WUT and during numerous research works, projects and contacts with Polish and European universities and construction companies, realized within the Leonardo da Vinci Programme. The aim of the project was to create courses that would enable engineers and managers working in construction companies to study. This project was also an answer for the need for such tool especially at postgraduate studies. Products of the project are particularly useful for those of managers who cannot spend enough time on traditional training. Indeed, the aim was to increase the professionalism of construction managers running the European Union funded projects in construction. Furthermore, the operational goal of the project was to increase the attractiveness of teaching and studying at WUT. Project increased the availability of knowledge and virtual contact with lecturers by means of a professional e-learning platform. Materials are available for course participants regardless of time and place. The project was financed from European Economic Area (EEA) funds by Foundation for the Development of the Education System (FRSE). Partners in the project assured proper contacts with SME in construction to adjust teaching methods and courses contents to their needs. Crucial for the project was the positive experience of NTNU in implementing and using e-learning in a didactic process. For that reason, the project partners agreed with Norwegian recommendation for using its learning platform as a best tool. Experiences of many European universities show that the most effective methodology is blended learning. It combines traditional face-to-face classroom methods (e.g. lectures) with e-learning. The course takes advantage of distance learning in combination with direct meeting of student and lecturer. Research and pilot projects carried out by WUT under the Leonardo da Vinci projects were used in this project to develop substantive content to the internet platform. The result of the project is creation of two innovative courses organized in distance learning mode of teaching. The structure of the courses is compatible with the manuals created
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within the framework of the Leonardo da Vinci project: Common learning outcome for European managers in construction: Economy and financial management in construction and Construction management. The authors have focused on presenting the main interesting and innovative aspects of the project: multimedia substantive content, capabilities of its learning platform and the positive impact of project on the construction industry and higher education in Poland.
2. STRUCTURE AND CONTENT OF THE PROJECT

2.1. Substantive basis of the Project The project to a significant extend was based on the manuals Economy and financial management in construction and Construction management created within the framework of the Leonardo da Vinci project entitled: Common learning outcome for European managers in construction. The manuals are available in three languages Polish, English and Spanish and were used as didactic materials for students of postgraduate courses and regular studies in all three languages. The contents of the manuals are an innovative approach to financial management issues as well as to the investment process in the construction industry. The first manual Economy and financial management in construction (Fig. 1) focuses mainly on basic economic and financial principles of management of the investment process, financial management in preconstruction phase, cost management in construction phase and management of finances at the stage of operation and use.
Figure 1: Book cover of Economy and financial management in construction
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Within this structure of the book it can be found issues as, for example, management and assessment of risk and uncertainty in undertaking venture investment, methods of determining of cash flow and financial management in contracts performed by private and public investors. The second book tackles the issue of: understanding the construction industry and its characteristics, construction companies and their organizational structure, establishing the need to use machinery, determining the fixed and operating costs of the machines, applying supply chain management to construction. The scope of knowledge presented in the manuals is meant to be the basis for assessing the managerial qualifications of civil engineers by the Association of European Building Surveyors and Construction Experts (AEEBC) for the purpose of the European engineering professional EurBE card. The AEEBC represents Building Surveyors and Construction Experts who are professionally qualified in the technological and management processes by which buildings are designed, constructed, renewed and repaired in accordance with the national legislation of individual countries. The AEEBC objective is to create a Europe wide qualification and common title that will gain increasing recognition by regulating authorities and organizations, thus helping to promote cross border recognition and the free movement of professionals across Europe. The AEEBC goal is that the common title European Building Expert will help overcome the confusion of titles amongst building and construction professionals fulfilling similar roles. Assessment during the application for EurBE card is based on academic qualifications, professional experience and commitment to comply with the AEEBC Code of Conduct and Ethics. Knowledge and skills acquired throughout participation in presented courses are highly rated by the AEEBC. The another confirmation of a high quality of the project and its strong connection with engineering and managerial practice is that The Polish Chamber of Civil Engineers (PIIB) has already started implementing the Construction Management course as an element of self-education for PIIB's members.
2.2. Course methodology The courses can be offered as a one 7,5 ECTS course with both books (Minasowicz 2008, Economy and Financial Management in Construction; Pellicer et al. 2008, Construction Management) as a curriculum. Another option is to offer each book and linked e-learning material as two separate courses of 3.75 4.00 ECTS. The course methodology or learning mode is so called blended including lectures, students self-study, tutored exercises and elearning material.
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Figure 2: Sample screenshot of the course
Despite the fact that the course is prepared as an e-learning course, face to face lecturing should not be excluded. In order to achieve it, there have been prepared lectures in PPT format. The content of the lectures is a suggestion on what can be presented, and different lecturers should change the content to their personal style of lecturing. Moreover students should conduct self-studies in the course which consist of reading and studying the books mentioned in this subchapter. Both of the manuals in addition to the original paper book are available as PDF documents readable on computer, tablets and cell phone so that it makes an access to the content easier. In addition, there are no problems with uploading the didactic materials to other platforms. An example can be the Construction Management course which is adapted to Moodle platform by The Polish Chamber of Civil Engineers (PIIB). Each of the chapter finishes with a test consisting of different types of questions covering either/or questions, multiple choice, multiple response, short open answers, match questions, order questions and hotspot.
Figure 3: Example of a match question
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2.3. Evaluation of students The grading and evaluation of students is based on a combination of 50 % exam or essay and 50 % of smaller exercises. Various lecturers can decide whether they want to use its learning for all exercises, or if they want students to deliver exercises on paper. its learning offers some auto evaluation tools for exercises which means that the platform can grade students automatically without any interference of the lecturer or tutors (Fig. 4). This system is suitable, however, only for multiple choice and exercises with true/false answers. For open answers (50, 100, 500 words answer) the auto evaluation tool is based on searching after key words in the test. This system seems to be weak for exercises where the intention is that students shall show their understanding. Therefore it is recommended that open answers should be evaluated by tutors or teaching assistants.
Figure 4: Example of an exercise evaluation
3. ITS LEARNING PLATFORM

its learning is a widely used e-learning platform and document base for education, school and some private companies in Scandinavia. The courses are available through NTNUs intranet service at https://innsida.ntnu.no (Fig. 5). The polish users also get access to innsida through NTNU, but only after receiving the NTNU user account that is guaranteed by WUT for about 50 students. its learning is based on organizing courses and course material in folder structure, similar to Microsoft and Apple programs.
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Figure 5: Screenshot of the course content and structure
4. CONCLUSIONS
The project is a unique contribution to a national vocational education system as well as to European vocational education strategy because it uses Internet to create teaching aids and virtual platform and introduces new ideas to the system of incessant vocational training. One of the main advantages of courses is a well-functioning, flexible e-learning platform which has been repeatedly tested and presented to companies. The course Economy and financial management in construction has already been implemented at postgraduate studies at WUT and is highly rated by tutors and students. On the other hand, e-learning methods have already been widely used at NTNU. However, the courses, which are products of the project, are also innovative for this university. Furthermore, the project is highly rated by WUT's authorities because the implementation of project is convergent with its development strategy. As a significant result there should be mentioned increasing of knowledge and skills of engineers and construction managers what is highly important for construction industry and Polish economy as a whole. The innovations introduced in the project require new forms of cooperation between partners and political decision-makers. Aims and results of the project are strongly connected with the lifelong learning strategy. The Polish Chamber of Civil Engineers (PIIB) has already started implementing the Construction Management course as an element of self-education for PIIB's members. It is a confirmation of a high quality of the project and its strong connection with engineering and managerial practice. It is worth taking into consideration that The Association of European Building Surveyors & Construction Experts (AEEBC) takes into account additional knowledge acquired in that way. Moreover it is one of the elements that is recognized and highly rated by AEEBC during the application for EurBE card, a European accreditation scheme for construction managers. Foremost, the project was appreciated by the European Commission and the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education. The authors of the project were asked to present the project as an example of best practices in virtual mobility at the Eastern
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Dimension of Mobility Conference in July 2011 which was organised in the framework of the Eastern Partnership during the Polish Presidency of the Council of the European Union.
REFERENCES
Minasowicz A., Kluczuk P. and Nical A., July 2011. Best practices in virtual mobility: Distance learning degrees the Perspective of the Warsaw University of Technology, Eastern Dimension of Mobility Conference, Warsaw, Poland. Minasowicz A., Nowak P. and Zawistowski J., 2009. Development of Educational Opportunities for European Construction Industry. INTED International Technology, Education and Development Conference), Valencia, Spain. Minasowicz A., Nowak P. and Zawistowski J., 2023.03.2012. EU Funded Projects Best Tools for Interoperability Enhancement in Construction Industry. I-ESA, Interoperability for Enterprise Systems and Applications. Shaping Enterprise Interoperability in Future Internet conference, Valencia, Spain. Nowak P., 1719 May 2012. Construction Managers Library. Tools for Building Experts Qualifications Recognition across EU, WCCEE , Valencia, Spain Nowak P., 1923 June 2011. EU Funded Projects Best tools for Construction Specialists Education. MISBE 2011 (Management and Innovation for sustainable Build Environment), Amsterdam, The Netherlands Nowak P., 1215 April 2011. Narzdzia edukacyjne dla inynierw badawcze programy europejskie. LOGITRANS VIII konferencja naukowo-techniczna logistyka, systemy transportowe, bezpieczestwo w transporcie, Szczyrk, Poland. Nowak P., 69 December 2010. Metoda distance learning w podyplomowym nauczaniu menederw budowlanych. TRANSCOMP International Conference Computer Systems Aided Science, Industry and Transport, XIV. Zakopane, Poland Nowak P., 6/2010. Metoda distance learning w podyplomowym nauczaniu menederw budowlanych. Logistyka, (November/december), p. 16.
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UNIT PRICE ESTIMATING OF ROADS MAINTENANCE ACTIVITIES USING EXPONENTIAL ROBUST REGRESSION
Cristbal Moena Department of Construction Engineering and Management, Pontificia Universidad Catlica de Chile, Vicua Mackenna 4860, Santiago, Chile, cristobalmoena@gmail.com Alfredo Serpell Department of Construction Engineering and Management, Pontificia Universidad Catlica de Chile, Vicua Mackenna 4860, Santiago, Chile, aserpell@ing.puc.cl
Abstract Good road maintenance schemes allow reducing costs and extending the serviceability life of roads. There are several methods to plan these project maintenances, but all of them require input information about maintenance costs. These costs can be very different depending on the geographical zone and the contracted volume (economies of scale). In this paper, a structured methodology for estimating road maintenance activities unit price is proposed, modeling the exponential decay nature of economies of scale. Using an exponential robust regression procedure, curves are adjusted, and parameters generated. Additionally, a cost contingency analysis is performed in order to provide cost ranges associated to specific contracted volumes. The validation of the methodology was carried out through its application in estimating unit prices of real road maintenance projects in Chile. The procedure may be used by road planners as well as by contractors looking for a more confident approach before participating in a bid. Furthermore, this methodology is not limited to road maintenance, but also to any other field where economies of scale and exponential fitting are needed. Keywords: cost, estimating, maintenance, methodology, robust regression.
1. INTRODUCTION
Traditionally, project alternatives are characterized by an initial investment followed by proper maintenance in subsequent years (Archondo-Callao, 2011). Good highway maintenance schemes allow reducing costs and extending the serviceability life of roads. There are several methods to plan these project maintenances (Dakin et al., 2006), but all of them require input information about maintenance costs. These costs can be very different depending on the geographical zone and the contracted volume (economies of scale) (Tighe, 2001).
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A structured methodology for estimating Road Maintenance Activities (RMA) unit prices (UP) is proposed, modeling the exponential decay nature of economies of scale (Tighe, 2001). Using an exponential robust fit regression procedure, curves are adjusted, and parameters are generated. Optionally, a cost contingency analysis may be performed in order to provide cost ranges associated to specific contracted volumes. The methodology has been programmed and applied in MATLAB language. A group of parameters has resulted from this stage, and they are combined in a Microsoft Excel sheet to estimate unit prices. The methodology validation was carried out through its use in estimating unit prices of real road maintenance projects in Chile.
2. RESEARCH DESCRIPTION AND METHODOLOGY

This investigation tries to answer the following questions: what variables do affect RMA unit prices? And how can they be estimated? There are several variables that effect and produce variability in the unit price of a specific RMA: the geographical zone of road maintenance, price fluctuations, price negotiations, and the contracted volume. This paper focuses mainly on the last one (contracted volume) and incorporates a contingency analysis to deal with the variability. Dismissing cost contingency analysis may causes project costs overrun (Lawrence, 2007). The methodology consists of a combination of an exponential regression with a robust regression. Exponential regression is used when input data behaves in that way: unit prices tend to exponentially decay as contracted volume increases. Robust regression is used when input data could present outliers (MATLAB, 2011) that would distort final results: big databases inevitably contain mistakes that can affect the regression performance. Then a combination of both procedures is a good way to deal with this problem. Historical input data is processed in MATLAB, which generates parameters for each RMA studied. These parameters are handled in an Excel sheet, where the unit price estimation and cost contingency analysis is performed. Figure 1 shows a flowchart of the methodology.
3. EXPONENTIAL ROBUST REGRESSION

Ordinary least square method (OLS) is one of the simplest and most-used methods to solve a multiple linear regression. It consists of minimizing the squared sum of the residuals obtaining the regression coefficients (beta). In presence of outliers OLS may provide wrong models (MATLAB, 2011). Outliers are defined as atypical data being outside normal ranges for common values, produced by an external variable (e.g. abnormal price negotiation, wrong typing, and urgent repair). If an outlier is considered in the regression, the output model will probably predict wrong results.
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There are several robust regression methods to cope with this problem (Bjrck, 1996). One of the most used is the interactively reweigh least squares' method (IRLS), which consists of adjusting some weights and minimizing the following expression:
min wi ( ) yi fi ( )
i=1
Hence, depending on the confidence level, the method can determine which data corresponds to outliers, and performs the regression without them. It is important to note that results can be significantly affected with just a few outliers within the regression model. Thus, it is significant to determine all of them.
Figure 1 Methodology flowchart
In this research, the MATLAB routine robustfit was used to perform calculations. In order to find a relationship between contracted volume and unit prices robust regression was used, allowing easily detecting and removing unit prices that present an uncommon behavior. However, the economy of scale problem is not linear. To handle this issue, this paper takes advantage of a common observed relationship: as long as contracted volume becomes higher, unit prices tend to decrease, and in many cases, this relationship seems to decrease exponentially. Then a logarithmic transformation is applied in both axies (unit prices and contracted volume), transforming the exponential point distribution into a linear point distribution. In this new space robust regression can be used.
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Figure 2 shows unit price data against contracted volume of RMA 7.304.4c is plotted. Exponential decay while increasing contracted volume can be easily observed, and no possible linear regression can be fitted. The line shows the final exponential robust fit.
Unit price vs. Contracted Volume. Code = 7.304.4c 0.18 0.16 0.14 Unit price (UF) 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Contracted Volume (un) 2.5 3 x 10
5
Real data Exponentially robust fitted curve
Figure 2 Exponential decay of unit prices against contracted volume
Applying a logarithmic transformation (natural logarithm) in both axes produces the chart shown in figure 3. It is clearly observed that data tends to group in a straight line in this space. Here, linear robust regression can be performed without problems. Furthermore, four outliers are easily recognizable (top of the figure), and they were dismissed from the robust regression (line).
log-log Unit price vs. Contracted Volume. Code = 7.304.4c 0 Real data Exponentially robust fitted curve
-0.5
-1 Unit price (log(UF))
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6 8 10 Contracted Volume (log(un))
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Figure 3 Logarithmic space transformation
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In order to assess or validate a regression model two statistics test were performed (Kutner et al., 1996; Montgomery and Runger, 2002). The first one corresponded to the regression significance test which consists of verifying regression significance using analysis of variance. The second test was the assessment of the lack-of-fit of the regression model.
4. COST CONTINGENCY ANALYSIS

An economy of scale model gives a unit price against a contracted volume curve. However, it provides a deterministic value, while in practice unit price behaves like a random variable. Instead of assigning a single value to the cost estimate, the probabilistic approach associates a probability distribution to the cost parameter. This random variable presents higher variability for smaller contracted values and tends to stabilize for higher ones. Cost contingency is defined as the amount needed to add to estimation in order to reduce the overrun risk to an acceptable level (Idrus et al., 2010). If we want to estimate unit prices, but we ignore material suppliers and contractors past performance, it is highly recommended to include a contingency item within the estimation. This is easily done with the regressed model described earlier. The final purpose is to allow the user of this methodology to choose different probabilities that the unit price will not be exceeded, and thus determine the unit price associated with that level of confidence. The reason for this relies on the fact that for small-volume contracts most of the providers use the sale price as they want, and contractors have no interest in negotiating this price (Tighe, 2001). However, for big volumes, there is an ability to take advantage of economies of scale, and estimators are pushed to estimate more accurately.
Figure 4 Unit price's variability
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5. EXAMPLE CASES
For the example case information provided by Direccin de Vialidad de Chile (Chilean Road Department) is considered. This data consisted of thousands of RMA unit prices collected between 2007 and 2010. The different types of RMA available in this database belong to one of the categories proposed in Manual de Carreteras, Volumen 7 (Gobierno de Chile, 2001), and they are similar but more specific than the activities proposed in HDM-4 software (Dakin et al., 2006). In this manual, nine maintenance categories are proposed: roadside, ground movement, drainage, asphaltic pavement, concrete pavement, gravel and natural roads, bridges and structures, road security, snow control. For this study, only asphaltic pavement, concrete pavement, and gravel road maintenance activities were considered. Chile is a very large and narrow country with very different climates and regions, and places with very difficult accessibility. In order to avoid variability due to different geographic areas, this study only considers unit prices from central Chile. Unit prices are shown in UF units (UF = unidad de fomento, Chilean indexed monetary unit adjusted by inflation). The activities considered in the example cases are as follows: 7.304.4c Sello Tipo Lechada Asfltica (m2) (Asphalt slurry seal). This maintenance activity belongs to the group of bituminous seals. It refers to an asphaltic covering through asphalt irrigation, in combination with some aggregates. This activity includes surface cleaning and preparation, asphalt material implementation, equipment, compaction, and other final actions. It is quantified in squared meters (m2). 7.305.1b Sellado de Juntas y Grietas (m) (Joint and crack sealing). This maintenance activity consists of sealing or resealing existing cracks in concrete pavements. This operation includes crack cavity conformation, cleaning, and sealing with all required procedures. It is quantified in linear meters (m). 7.306.4a Recebo de Carpetas Granulares (m3) (Gravel road platform reshape). This maintenance activity belongs to the group of activities intended to reshape roads platforms, and it considers replacing missing material. The aim of this activity is recovering initial geometry and serviceability of the road. This operation includes road preparation, material supply and placement, other final actions. It is quantified in cubic meters (m3).
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6. RESULTS
In order to test the methodology robustness, the chosen activities have a different amount of input data.
Code 7.304.4c 7.305.1b 7.306.4a Activity Asphalt slurry seal Joint and crack sealing Gravel road platform reshape Unit m2 m m3 N of data 303 26 278
Table 1 Example of activities input data
The robust regression is performed in MATLAB software using robustfit routine (MATLAB, 2011). The parameters obtained from the regression are: b1: first beta coefficient; b2: second beta coefficient; s1/m2: variation factor for the first volume range; s2/m2: variation factor for the second volume range; s3/m3: variation factor for the third volume range; Vp1: mean contracted volume for the first range; Vp2: mean contracted volume for the second range; and Vp3: mean contracted volume for the third range. The following data was automatically dismissed in the robust regression: 7.304.4c: 3.96% of the data (13 outliers); 7.305.1b: 3.70% of the data (1 outlier); and 7.306.4a: 2.51% of the data (7 outliers). For these particular cases small numbers of outliers existed. However, leaving just a few outliers in the regression can create very bad models due to their different order of magnitude. In general, 5% 25% of data is dismissed. Table 2 summarizes parameters obtained from MATLAB robust regression, including exponential regression coefficients, variation factors for each volume range, and mean contracted volume for each range.
Code 7.304.4c 7.305.1b 7.306.4a b1 (UF) -1.1965 -0.3917 -0.0906 b2 (UF/un) -0.1215 -0.3611 -0.1411 s1/m1 29.32% 65.43% 45.88% s2/m2 19.41% 35.12% 45.96% s3/m3 15.65% 31.07% 40.87% Vp1 (un) 69,881 1,728 1,893 Vp2 (un) 273,964 4,586 5,984 Vp3 (un) 465,880 8,465 11,298
Table 2 Parameters obtained from MATLAB regression.
Figure 5 shows unit prices for asphalt slurry seal plotted against squared meters contracted, and the exponentially robust fitted curve.
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Unit price vs. Contracted Volume. Code = 7.304.4c 0.18 0.16 0.14 Unit price (UF) 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Contracted Volume (un) 2.5 3 x 10
5
Real data Exponentially robust fitted curve
Figure 5 Fitted curve for 7.304.4c Asphalt slurry seal
Unit prices for joint and cracks sealing plotted against linear meters contracted, and the exponentially robust fitted curves are shown in figure 6.
Unit price vs. Contracted Volume. Code = 7.305.1b 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 -0.05 Real data Exponentially robust fitted curve
Unit price (UF)
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Contracted Volume (un)
Figure 6 Fitted curve for 7.305.1b Joint and crack sealing.
Results for 7.306.4a Gravel road platform reshapes. Figure 7 shows unit prices for joint and crack sealing plotted against linear meters contracted, and the exponentially robust fitted curve.
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Unit price vs. Contracted Volume. Code = 7.306.4a Real data Exponentially robust fitted curve
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1 Unit price (UF)
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0.6
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4000
6000 8000 10000 Contracted Volume (un)
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Figure 7 Fitted curve for 7.306.4a Gravel road platform reshapes.
Then, unit price equations are obtained by performing an exponential transformation:

log (UP ( V ) ) = b1 + b2 log ( V ) \exp (
UP ( V ) = eb1 +b2 log(V)
Therefore, UP curves for studied maintenance activities are shown next. Their accuracy can be verified by simply replacing example values and comparing them with graphs.
UP7.304.4c ( V ) = e1.19650.1215log(V)
UP7.305.1b ( V ) = e0.39170.3611log(V) UP7.306.4a ( V ) = e0.09060.1411log(V)

Now consider performing a cost contingency analysis by estimating the unit price associated with adding 1 (one) standard deviation for 7.305.1b RMA. Suppose that a volume (in this case length) of 5,000 meters of sealing is required.
UP7.305.1b ( 5000 ) = e0.39170.3611log(5000) = 0.0312UF
According to table 2 this volume corresponds to a mid-range. From the table 2, variation coefficient for the mid-range is 35.12%, which means that the associated standard deviation is 35.12% of the mean. Thus the unit price associated to the contingency level is:
UPc 7.305.1b ( 5000 ) = UP7.305.1b ( 5000 ) (1 + f ) = 0.0312 (1 + 0.3512) = 0.0422UF
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This means that, for 5,000 meters of sealing, the unit price that has a probability of 15.9% of being exceeded corresponds to 0.0422 UF. This confidence level (84.1%) was arbitrarily chosen due to its simplicity in calculations (simply adding a standard deviation to the mean), but any value between 0.00 and 1.00 can be chosen. Fitted curves show to successfully model price variation within normal volume ranges (i.e. historic data range included in the database).). Applying these equations to extreme values (nearly zero volume or infinite volume) may cause anomalies.
7. CONCLUSIONS
This paper presented a methodology for estimating unit prices of road maintenance activities. Robust fit regression (IRLS) in combination with a logarithmic transformation successfully allows to model economies of scale of RMA unit prices. The method showed to be an effective way to avoid price distortions due to outlier existence in data. On the other hand, fitted curves showed to successfully model price variation within normal volume ranges. The model was tested with road maintenance projects developed in Chile during the last years. Future research should consider applying the model in other countries to check its adaptation ability to any kind of data. Furthermore, a study involving geographical data segregation to test the impacts in unit price variability should be performed and an actualization of unit prices due to inflation and other variables could be considered. The methodology properly works for the studied RMA (asphalt, concrete, and gravel roads). However, its applicability for other RMA (e.g. signage, drainage) it is not theoretically limited, and should be a matter of future research. Furthermore, this procedure might be applied to simulate any other problem where exponential fitting is needed and outlier data is frequently found (e.g., mining, construction, or industry).
REFERENCES
Archondo-Callao, R., 2011. Maintenance Impact on Economic Evaluation of Upgrading Unsealed Roads, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2203, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington. Bewick, V., Liz Cheek, L., & Ball, J., 2005. Statistics review 14: Logistic regression, Crit Care, 9 (1): 112118, BioMed Central Ltd. Bjrck, A., 1996. Numerical Methods for Least Squares Problems. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics. Dakin, J., Stannard, E., & Wightman, D., 2006. HDM-4 Volume three Software user guide, Highway Development and Management Series, PIARC. Gobierno de Chile, Ministerio de Obras Pblicas, Direccin de Vialidad, 2001. Manual de Carreteras, Volumen 7, Mantenimiento Vial.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Idrus, A., Nuruddin, F. and Rohman, M., 2010. Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system, Expert Systems with Applications, Volume 38 (3), 15011508. Kutner, M., Nachstheim, C., Neter, J., & Wasserman, W., 1996. Applied Linear Statistical Models, Fourth Edition, Irwin, pages 121122. Lawrence, G., 2007. Cost Estimate Contingency. Use and Misuse of Capital Cost Estimate Contingency Why Deleting it Makes Projects More Expensive, Not Less, Pharmaceutical Engineering The Official Magazine of ISPE, September/October, 27(5). MATLAB Documentation, Statistics Toolbox, 2011. Robustfit Mathworks and Linear Regression, Parametric Regression Analysis Mathworks. Montgomery, D. and Runger, G., 2002. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineer, 3rd ed. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., USA. Osman, H., 2005. Risk-Based Life-Cycle Cost Analysis of Privatized Infrastructure, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1924, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., pp. 192196 Tighe, S., 2001. Guidelines for Probabilistic pavement life cycle cost analysis. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, 1769, 2838.
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SUSTAINABLE FRP REPAIR USING EXTERNAL PRESSURE

Gray Mullins, Rajan Sen, Danny Winters, Mike Stokes, Julio Aguilar University of South Florida, Tampa FL, USA, sen@usf.edu
Abstract Fiber reinforced polymers (FRP) are increasingly being used in infrastructure repair. The durability of the repair is contingent on the integrity of its bond with the substrate. This integrity may be compromised in common applications such as vertical repairs of columns or overhead repairs of concrete slabs if the resin-saturated fiber separates from its substrate because of its weight. This separation can be prevented by maintaining external pressure until the resin cures. Techniques for applying external pressure such as pressure / vacuum bagging developed by the composites industry are well known but are not used in infrastructure repairs. This paper provides an overview of research conducted to adapt these techniques for repairing partially submerged concrete piles. In the study, appropriate systems were developed and tests conducted to quantify improvement in bond. The system developed was successfully implemented in field demonstration projects in which corroding piles in estuarine waters were repaired using pressure bagging. Keywords: bond, experimental, FRP, piles pressure, vacuum.
1. INTRODUCTION
Externally bonded fiber reinforced polymers (FRP) are used worldwide for repair and strengthening structures. Their lightweight, high strength and corrosion resistant properties make it especially cost effective in congested urban areas because heavy equipment is not needed and repairs can be completed with minimal disruption to traffic. Since loads are transferred to the FRP by its bond with the substrate, sustainability of the repair depends on the long term integrity of this bond. In most field applications, a wet-layup process is used. In this procedure, the FRP material in sheet or fabric form is resin saturated on-site and steel rollers used to remove air pockets and enhance adhesion to the prepared concrete substrate. In the pile repair shown in Fig. 1, the resin saturated fabric is installed on a vertical surface. In this application, the weight of this fabric can cause it to slip. To prevent this, typically a plastic shrink wrap is tightly wound around the element to help develop the necessary frictional resistance. While this can prevent the material from slipping, bond can still be problematic because the pressure is non-uniform.
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Fig. 1 Wet layup process used in FRP pile repair
Studies have shown that the FRP-concrete bond is improved by the application of uniform pressure (Xiong et al. 2006). This paper provides an overview of a research study (Aguilar et al. 2009) in which pressure/ vacuum bagging was used to improve FRP-concrete bond.
2. TECHNIQUES FOR IMPROVING BOND

2.1. Pressure Bagging A pressure bag is similar to inflatable cuffs used for measuring blood pressure. It consists of an outer bag with an air-tight, inflatable inside bladder held in place by Velcro strips to maintain correct orientation. The outer bag was made from rubberized nylon. Its dimensions are determined from the size of the element being repaired and the extent of the FRP repair. The inflatable bladder was made using 0.2 mm thick clear PVC and is slightly oversized to allow full expansion inside the outer bag. The pressure bag is installed immediately after the FRP repair is completed in the usual manner and secured in place by straps and zippers. Flange connectors are incorporated in the bags to allow the inner bag to be inflated (Fig. 2).
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Fig. 2 Elements of the pressure bag used developed for pile repair
2.2. Vacuum Bagging Vacuum bagging applies pressure by creating a vacuum (limited to a maximum of 1 atmosphere). Therefore maintenance of an air tight seal is critically important. The vacuum bags used in this study were made from the same 0.2mm thick clear PVC used for making the inner bladder of the pressure bag. As with the pressure bag, its size depends on the element being repaired. A flange was installed in a similar fashion to those used for the pressure bag and served as the means for connecting the bag to the vacuum pump. 12 mm thick closed-cell foam ring was used to create an airtight seal (Fig 3).
Fig. 3 Flange connector and closed cell foam ring for air tight seal.
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After the cell foam rings were in position between the pile surface and vacuum bag, duct tape was wrapped around the outside of the vacuum bag within the region of the rings to provide confinement for initial sealing. Once vacuum was applied, the upper and lower rings became self-sealing, thereby eliminating the need for additional confinement.
3. EXPERIMENTAL SET-UP
The application of pressure bagging and vacuum bagging systems developed for underwater FRP pile repair was tested using twelve, 30cm square pre-stressed concrete piles (4 controls, 4 pressure bag, and 4 vacuum bag). Fig. 4 shows the (a) pressure bag and (b) vacuum bag applied to the pile specimen. Since the application was for piles in tidal waters, the specimens were placed in a water tank so that half the FRP wrapped region was completely submerged while the other half was completely dry (Fig. 4). The results from pressure / vacuum bagged specimens were compared against those for identically prepared controls where no pressure was used.
(a)
(b)
Fig. 4 (a) Pressure bagging; (b) Vacuum bagging.
3.1. Installation of Pressure Bags Step 1: Place a protective layer over the final FRP application to separate the pressure bag from the FRP during curing. This is typically a plastic stretch-wrap. Step 2: If necessary, place a breathable layer over the stretch-wrap. This is for gas-generating resins such as urethane. Step 3: Wrap the pressure bag around the pile (un-inflated).
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Step 4: Zip the two ends of the pressure bag together and connect the air source. Step 5: Connect the buckle cinch straps and begin to inflate the bag. The cinch straps must work with the zipper enclosure and should be kept loose until minimal pressure is achieved and then tightened prior to full pressurization. Step 6: Inflate the pressure bag to the desired pressure (safe load of the bag material).
3.2. Installation of Vacuum Bags Step 1: Place a protective layer over the final FRP application to separate the vacuum bag from the FRP during curing. This is typically a plastic stretch-wrap. Step 2: Place a breathable layer over the stretch-wrap to allow air to escape around the pile during vacuuming. Step 3: Slide the closed cell foam rings to the outside of the FRP repair area. Step 4: The vacuum bag is then slipped over the pile and positioned over the foam rings. Step 5: Cinch the plastic bag down to the closed cell foam ring to ensure an air-tight seal. Step 6: Connect the vacuum source to the desired pressure.
4. PULLOUT TESTING
The effect of pressure bagging and vacuum bagging on bond was evaluated through destructive pullout tests conducted on the FRP repaired specimens. All testing was conducted in accordance with ASTM D4541 using an Elcometer 106 adhesion tester. In the tests, 31.8 mm diameter aluminum disks were installed on a 75 mm x 75 mm grid to allow 18 tests each to be conducted on the dry and submerged regions (Fig. 5).
Fig. 5 Elcometer tester (left), grid used for pullout testing and failure mode
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5. RESULTS
A total of 422 pullout tests were conducted on 12 specimens. Fig. 6 summarizes results of tests from 4 controls, 4 pressure bagged, and 4 vacuum bagged piles. This shows an average increase in bond of 71% for pressure bagging above waterline (dry region) and 75% increase in strength below waterline (wet region). Vacuum bagging showed improvements of 56% and 33% increase in strength above and below waterline, respectively.
300 Above Waterline Below Waterline 70.7% Increase 250 56.2% Increase 2.0
1.5 Pullout Strength (MPa) . 1.0 32.9% 0.5 0.0
. Pullout Strength (psi)
200
150
100
50
0 Control Pressure Vacuum
Fig. 6 Average pullout test results
6. FIELD IMPLEMENTATION
The system developed was successfully implemented in field applications in which corroding piles were repaired. Because the concrete is cracked, pressure bagging was used. The pressure bag was installed after the regular FRP repair was completed and external pressure sustained for 24 hours when the bag was removed. No in-situ pullout tests were carried but visual inspection and tap tests suggested that the bond was better.
7. CONCLUSIONS
The effectiveness of FRP strengthening depends on the integrity of its bond with concrete. This study shows that successful techniques developed by the composites industry can be adapted for infrastructure repair.
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74.7% Increase
Results from the pullout tests demonstrated that external pressure, either by pressure or vacuum bagging significantly enhances the bond between FRP and concrete both above and below the waterline. From the practical standpoint, pressure bagging is simpler for concrete repairs since there is no requirement for an airtight seal. Installation is rapid and simple. It requires electric power and an air compressor. The bags can be fabricated easily and can be re-used to conduct multiple repairs. The techniques developed were successfully implemented in the field repair of piles (Winters et al., 2008, Aguilar et al. 2010).
8. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was part of a research project funded by the Transportation Research Boards IDEA program. Additional financial support was provided by Hillsborough County. This support is gratefully acknowledged.
REFERENCES
Aguilar, J., Winters, D., Sen. R., Mullins, G. and Stokes, M., 2010. FRP-CP System for Pile Repair in Tidal Waters. Transportation Research Record 2150, pp. 111118. Aguilar, J., Winters, D., Sen. R., Mullins, G. and Stokes, M., 2009. Improvement in FRP-Concrete Bond by External Pressure. Transportation Research Record, No. 2131, pp. 145154. ASTM D4541, 2002 Test Method for Pull off Strength of Coatings Using Portable Adhesive Tester, West Conshohocken, PA. Winters, D., Mullins, G., Sen, R., Schrader, A. and Stokes, M., 2008. Bond Enhancement for FRP Pile Repair in Tidal Waters. ASCE, Journal of Composites for Construction, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 334343. Xiong, G., Ma, X. and Ji, G., 2006. Effect of contact pressure on the bond strength of FRP to concrete. ASCE, Journal of Composites for Construction, Vol. 10, No. 3, PP. 275278.
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A REVIEW OF THE EVOLUTION OF LEAN CONSTRUCTION

Claus Nesensohn John Moores University, Liverpool, United Kingdom, C.Nesensohn@2012.ljmu.ac.uk David James Bryde John Moores University, Liverpool, United Kingdom, D.J.Bryde@ljmu.ac.uk
Abstract The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the key stages in the evolution of Lean Construction and their current understanding in literature. Considered through undertaking a comprehensive literature review this paper sets out the evolution of Lean Construction has its roots in the 16th century. Five centuries later the concrete idea of Lean construction becomes the interest of international academics and the industry. This new paradigm for managing construction projects has a parabolic rising interest which can be read by the increasing number of publications in the last 20 years. Given, the current high profile debate with regard to Lean Construction it is quite surprising that after 20 years of research, there is no agreed understanding of the subject. This paper further highlights the key milestones in the development of Lean Production as the foundation to the idea of Lean Construction. In addition to this the main events are identified with the key publications that are summarized within a timeline from 1990 2012. In the final review the dominant view of Lean Construction were identified either as a production control system for construction applied from the Lean Production or conversely, as a new conceptual theory for the production process in construction based on the Lean Production approach and the philosophy of Lean. Keywords: construction industry, history, lean construction, lean maturity, understanding.
1. INTRODUCTION
The contemporary trend in the construction industry sees Lean Construction worldwide as a growing approach with many advantages for the built environment. This new project delivery system is best suited for complex, uncertain, and short program projects, but also applicable to all types of construction projects (Howell and Ballard, 1997a, Howell, 1999). However Lean Construction extends to a particular part of adaption / implementation of the Japanese manufacturing approach "Lean Production" and this part sees construction as a kind of production (Bertelsen, 2004). In this way in recent years, the Lean Construction community kept coming back to a debate about a general agreed definition or a clear understanding of
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Lean Construction(Mossman, 2009). Indeed some believe that it is more important to know what Lean Construction is not and not how to define it. This paper is driven by the key question: What are the current and historical understandings in our knowledge of Lean Construction? There is also, however, a further point to be considered; the term Lean, itself is commonly used to describe the Toyota Production System (TPS) and is applied in different industries(Womack et al., 1990b). Hence the review includes also the roots of Lean in the fact that these are relevant in Lean Construction.
2. THE CONCEPT OF LEAN

The history of Lean and Process thinking dates back to the Arsenal in Venice in the 16 century (Womack, 2011). The Venetians at this time were able to assemble galleys along a channel in a continuous flow (ibid.). Therefore the idea of the continuous flow production was practiced more than 400 years before Henry Ford came up with the Highland Park (continuous flow production) plant in 1914. Liker described in his book The Toyota Way the development of the Toyota Production System (TPS). This was initiated in 1950 by Taiichi Ohno, who enabled Toyota to become the world best car manufacturer (Liker, 2004). Ohno argued that muda (the Japanese word for waste) activities add no value and can be found in any Process (Ohno, 1988). Hence Ohno identified seven different wastes/muda, which were defects (in products); overproduction; inventories; unnecessary processing; unnecessary movement (of people); unnecessary transport (of goods); and waiting (by people of the next process step (ibid.). Womack and Jones (2003) define and divide muda into two categories: Type one muda: Activities that create no value but seem to be unavoidable to create value for the end customer. Type two muda: Activities that create no value and are immediately avoidable. The understanding of value varies between the different perspectives and industries, value seen from the perspective of Lean Production in the book Lean Thinking is understood by the authors as capability provided to customer at the right time at an appropriate price, as defined in each case by the customer. Value is the critical starting point for Lean thinking, and can only be defined by the ultimate end customer. (Womack et al., 1990b, pp.311). The term Lean was labeled and introduced to the production industry by Krafcik (1988) (Liker, 2004, Krafcik, 1988, Bhasin and Burcher, 2006, Demir et al., 2012). In the 1990s conducted the MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) a large comparison study of the global automotive industry the International Motor Vehicle Program (Womack et al., 1990a). This study highlighted the significant productivity advantages, which the Japanese automobile manufacturers, especially Toyota, had compared to their western competitors (ibid.,Bhasin and Burcher, 2006). Womack and Jones (2003 p. 9) labeled Toyotas way of production, as practiced in 1996, as [] Lean production because it does more and more with less and less. The authors also defined the five Lean principles as:
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1. Specification of the value (from the perspective of the customer / end user) 2. Identify the value stream (process that provides the customer value without waste) 3. Flow (the value-creating steps to flow without interruption) 4. Pull (let the customer get what he wants, nothing will be done before it will needed) 5. Perfection (operation of continuous improvement) The Lean production approach from Womack, Jones and Roos built on a philosophy of systematically eliminating waste (muda) (Jrgensen, 2006). Since the book The Machine That Changed The World, by Womack et al. was first published in 1990, the profile of Lean was raised in production and management of several industries internationally (Womack and Jones, 2003).
3. THE UNDERSTANDING OF LEAN CONSTRUCTION

Lean Construction has been of great interest to numerous academics in the last 20 years (Green and May, 2005). However in his study Application of the new production philosophy to construction" Koskela (1992) came to the conclusion that it is necessary for the construction industry to adopt the Lean production philosophy. Hence Lean Construction accepts criteria of the TPS as a standard to achieve perfection (Howell, 1999). However this report appears not to apply the term "Lean Construction". One year later Koskela consistently used the term "Lean production in construction" in his publication. Therefore the evidence in several publications suggests that Koskela coined the term "Lean Construction" must refer to the 1st workshop on Lean Construction held in 1993 and Coordinated by Koskela. However Koskela and Ballard combined several things in 19921993, such as the concept of flow linked with the percent plan complete (PPC) and the importance of workflow reliability (Howell and Ballard, 2011). Hence the effects of workflow reliability is illustrated by the work of Goldratt (1986) "The Goal (Howell, 1999) Howell used further the idea of simulation (the Parade of Trade) to show the impact of variability on work flow in construction projects (Tommelein et al., 1999, ibid.). However there is still an ongoing debate in the literature about a definition implicit or explicit of Lean Construction (Green and May, 2005, Mossman, 2009). Hence the missing definition of Lean Construction has not prevented its acceptance in the construction industry (Green and May, 2005). Furthermore this debate is not yet finished and a comparison of the major literature of Lean Construction shows there are different understandings of Lean Construction. In 1997, L. Alarcon combined the conference publications of the first three "workshops on Lean Construction" in his book "Lean Construction. This book contains the first published crucial descriptions of the concept of Lean Construction. Hence the identified theories and evidences regarding the description / definition of Lean Construction in this work are:
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The organizational learning and knowledge sharing are part of Lean Construction and shows the abilities of the principals of Womack in production organizations and project organizations (Teamwork; Communication; Efficient use of waste and Continuous improvement) (Fisher, 1997). The Lean Construction Model facilitates the performance improvement by revealing the interdependencies (Ballard, 1997). Howell and Ballard argue in a series of three papers that "The next step of implementation of Lean Construction is to work behind the shield to improving performance and taking full advantages of the reduction in variation and uncertainty thus far achieved (Howell and Ballard, 1997b, pp. 104). Hence Lean Construction has at least two focuses that distinguishes to the traditionally construction management, firstly the focus to waste reduction instead simply improving efficiency in conversion processes and secondly the focus of managing flows in managing systems and processes along with the production process (Howell and Ballard, 1997c). Based on (Ohnos / Shingos work) the authors advocated in the third paper the implementation of Lean Construction in three phases: Firstly begin with stabilization of the process follow with reducing flow variations (process) and finally turning into operations (Howell and Ballard, 1997a). The above positions should be viewed critically as they are mostly based on few references and not clearly proven methodologies. The construction taskforce Rethinking Construction in 1998 highlighted Lean Construction as one of the most important approaches to achieving major improvements in quality and efficiency in the UK construction industry (Egan, 1998). However since this report Lean Construction is accepted as an essential element of the construction best practice program in the UK (CBPP 1998) (Green, 2000, Green and May, 2005). Green argues further that the publication of the Egan Report has had a significant impact of the agenda for change in the UK construction industry. However the authors of the Egan Report have taken account of a one-sided view and the interests of corporate clients and ignored the critical evidence to Lean Production and the human costs in Lean Production (Green, 1999). In addition, they see Lean primarily as a set of techniques/tools that are applicable to construction (ibid.). However Lean Construction has initiated the revolution of the scientific construction management area (Abdelhamid, 2004). Nonetheless the report was very useful in highlighting the topic and offering a more simple understanding as follows: Lean Construction is a way to design production systems to minimize waste of materials, time, and effort in order to generate the maximum possible amount of value (Koskela et al., 2002. pp. 1). Moreover the Lean Construction Institute (LCI) define Lean Construction as [] a production management-based approach to project delivery a new way to design and build capital facilities (Lean Construction Institute, 2012). In contrast the understanding of Lean Construction expresses the AGC-Lean Construction Forum as [] a set of ideas, practiced by individuals in the construction industry, based in the holistic pursuit of continuous improvements aimed at minimizing costs and maximizing value to clients in all dimensions of the built and natural environment: planning, design, construction, activation, operations, maintenance, salvaging, and recycling (Lean Construction Forum, 2012). However Howell (2011) preferred to define Lean Construction as A new way to see, understand and act in
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the world (Howell, 2011). It is however important to note that Lean Construction has a dominant view in academic literature either as a system of production control (e.g. Ballard and Howell, 1998; Choo et al.,1999; Ballard, 2000) or conversely in order to Koskela (1992) as a conceptual model of the production process (Green and May, 2005). However an empirical support of 25 semi structured interviews with construction policy makers derived by Green see Lean Construction as multifaceted and this defies a universal definition of it (Green and May, 2005, ibid.). As the previous paragraph outlined, it is quite difficult to define Lean Construction with any certainty, but it is much easier to recognize its absence and to understand what it is not (Mossman, 2009).
3.1 Value in Lean Construction Having considered the understanding of Lean Construction, it is also worthwhile looking at the concept of value in Lean Construction. As we have seen, in the understanding of Lean Construction, there is not yet an equal global understanding of the value concept in this field, whether by practitioner or researchers (Salvatierrra-Garrido and Pasquire, 2011). The understanding of value in the construction industry from the perspective of Lean Construction is different to the understanding of value in the manufacturing industry. Koskela's transformation-flow-value generation model establishes value as being strongly influenced through Lean Production (Koskela, 2000). However there is a common tendency that the TFV generation model "[...] strongly represent the current value vision of Lean Construction practitioners"(Salvatierrra-Garrido and Pasquire, 2011, pp.12).
3.2 Milestones in the last 20 years The comprehensive literature review has not only identified the different understanding of Lean Construction but also key publications and events within its evolution. Therefore, a timeline was developed as shown in figure 1 to summarize these Milestones. This timeline can also be seen as history of the evolutionary development of the understanding of Lean Construction. It therefore shows that Ballard met Koskela during a presentation at the Berkley University in 1992 (Howell and Ballard, 2011). At the same time the idea of a Workshop on Lean Construction (ibid.) started. After the first three workshops had taken place under the name workshop on Lean Construction, these were renamed in 1996 as the Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction. One year later in 1997 Ballard and Howell founded the Lean Construction Institute to figure out what conceptual problems construction projects have at this time and how to improve them, because projects where managed by managing the contract (Howell and Ballard, 2011). Accordingly published in the 90s where the key books and reports from Shingo, Womack et al, Koskela, Alarcon and Sir John Egan.
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Figure 1: Timeline Lean Construction form 1992 2012
Another, significant factor for the identification of a key publication in the timeline was the findings of the leaders in the development of lean construction theory in- and outside the
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IGLC community (Pasquire and Connor, 2011). In order to obtain a major view of the identified publications, a Google Scholar search (2012) was carried out and the most cited key publications are shown in table 1. This approach is similar to the methodology used in the work of (Pasquire and Conner). As a consequence, a Google Scholar search with the titles of each of the identified publications indicated that the three most cited publications are books based on Lean Production. These are followed by two reports that both suggest the implementation of Lean Production in Construction. It is clear that the following papers and PhD-thesis have fewer citations than the books that preceded them. The fact that these books are used for Lean publications in different industries is important. However it is prudent not to overemphasis the strengths of the Google Scholar citations because there might have been some biases in the fact that not every paper can be found from Google Scholar. Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Publication Title The Machine That Changed The World Lean Thinking The Toyota Way Rethinking Construction Application of the new production philosophy to construction An exploration towards a production theory and its application to construction The Last Planner System of production control The Shingo System for Continuous Improvement Lean Construction Toyota Kata Gemba Walks Author J. Womack et al. J. Womack et al. J. Liker J. Egan L. Koskela L. Koskela G. Ballard S. Shingo L. Alarcon M. Rother J. Womack Google citations 7707 3242 1541 1517 620 466 381 240 131 31 1
Table 1: Most cited key publications compared with Google Scholar citations
3. CONCLUSIONS
The literature review highlights there is no shortage of disagreement with the agreed global understanding of Lean Construction. The result in seeking to answer the question: What are the current and historical understandings in our knowledge about Lean Construction? identified a heterogeneous understanding of Lean Construction. The identified evidence in the studied literature highlights that in the last 20 years, the understanding of Lean Construction has been much focused on production control for construction projects (Lean Production in construction) and a new conceptual model for construction inspired by Lean Production (Lean Construction theory). As a result a global understanding of Lean Construction is not yet established. However each of the identified theoretical positions makes an important contribution to our understanding of Lean Construction. However some
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conclusion can be drawn from this review; it is currently more difficult for organizations to utilize Lean Construction whether or not there is a clear understanding of the definition. Hence current perspectives in organizations should be extended to provide more maturity in terms of Lean Construction. It is important to note the impact of an understanding of Lean Construction and the resulting level of maturity for an organization. Hence in construction organizations, the understanding and practice of Lean Construction can contribute in future with maturity models to improve lean construction understanding and maturity. Finally this paper is part of an ongoing research project and it is important to recognize that the maturity of an organization is crucial for their capability. However this is a response to an increasing interest in the built environment in maturity models for construction and the improvement approaches for Lean Construction.
REFERENCES
ABDELHAMID, T. S., 2004. The self-destruction and renewal of lean construction theory: A prediction from boyds theory. Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction, 12th, Helsingr, Denmark, 03 06 August. IGLC, pp. 1 19 BALLARD, G., 1997. Lean construction and epc performance improvement. In: ALARCON, L. (ed.) Lean construction. Rotterdam: A.A.Balkema. BERTELSEN, S., 2004. Lean construction: Where are we and how to procced. Lean Construction Journal, Vol. 1, No. 1. pp. 4669 BHASIN, S. & BURCHER, P., 2006. Lean viewed as a philosophy. Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, Vol. 17, No. 1. pp. 5672 DEMIR, S. T., BRYDE, D. J., FEARON, D. J. & OCHIENG, E. G., 2012. Re-conceptualizing lean construction environments 'the case for "agilean" project management'. Associated Schools of Construction Conference, Birmingham, UK, Associated Schools of Construction, pp. 1 9 EGAN, J., 1998 Rethinking construction, Department of the Environment Transport and Regions, HMSO, London FISHER, D. J., 1997. The knowledge process. In: ALARCON, L. (ed.) Lean construction. Rotterdam: A.A.Balkema. GREEN, S. D., 1999. The missing arguments of lean construction. Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 17, No. 2. pp. 133137 GREEN, S. D., 2000. The future of lean construction: A brave new world. Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction, 8th, Brighton, UK, 19th July. IGLC, pp. 1 11 GREEN, S. D. & MAY, S. C., 2005. Lean construction: Arenas of enactment, models of diffusion and the meaning of leanness. Building Research & Information, Vol. 33, No. 6. pp. 498511 HOWELL, G., 2011. Book review: Build lean: Transforming construction using lean thinking by adrian terry & stuart smith. Lean Construction Journal, Vol. No. pp. 3 8 HOWELL, G. & BALLARD, G., 1997a. Implementing lean construction: Improving downstream performance. In: ALARCON, L. (ed.) Lean construction. Rotterdam: A.A.Balkema. HOWELL, G. & BALLARD, G., 1997b. Implementing lean construction: Reducing inflow variation. In: ALARCON, L. (ed.) Lean construction. Rotterdam: A.A.Balkema. HOWELL, G. & BALLARD, G., 1997c. Implementing lean construction: Stabilizing work flow. In: ALARCON, L. (ed.) Lean construction. Rotterdam: A.A.Balkema.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary HOWELL, G. & BALLARD, G., 2011. Greg & glenn awards speech. 13th Annual Lean Construction Congress. Pasadena, CA: LCI. HOWELL, G. A., 1999. What is lean construction. Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction, 7th, Berkley, California, USA, 2628 July. University of California Berkley. Proceedings IGLC-7, pp. 110 JRGENSEN, B., 2006 Integrating lean design and lean construction: Processes and methods. Ph.D. thesis, The Technical University of Denmark. KOSKELA, L., 2000 An exploration towards a production theory and its application to construction. PhD thesis, Helsinki University of Technology. KOSKELA, L., HOWELL, G., BALLARD, G. & TOMMELEIN, I. D., 2002. The foundation of lean construction. Design and Construction: Building in Value, Hellingsworth, Butterworth Heinemann, pp. 211226 KRAFCIK, J., 1988. Triumph of the lean production system. Sloan Management Review, Vol. 30, No. 1. pp. 4152 LEAN CONSTRUCTION FORUM, A., 2012 What is lean? Available from: http://agcleanforum.org/about/ [Accessed 27th April 2012]. LEAN CONSTRUCTION INSTITUTE, 2012 What is lean construction? Available from: http://www.leanconstruction.org/whatis.htm [Accessed 27th April 2012]. LIKER, J. K., 2004 The toyota way, 14 management principles from the world's greatest manufacturer. New York, McGraw-Hill. MOSSMAN, A., 2009. Why isnt't the uk construction industiry going lean with gusto? Lean Construction Journal, Vol. 5, No. 1. pp. 2436 OHNO, T., 1988 Toyota production system, beyond large-scale production. New York, Productivity Press. PASQUIRE, C. & CONNOR, P., 2011. Where does the theory informing the international group for lean construction come from? Lean Construction Journal, Vol. 8, No. Special Issue. pp. 23 32 SALVATIERRRA-GARRIDO, J. & PASQUIRE, C., 2011. Value theory in lean construction. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, Vol. 16, No. 1. pp. 8 18 TOMMELEIN, I. D., RILEY, D. R. & HOWELL, G. A., 1999. Parade game: Impact of work flow variability on trade performance. ASCE, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 125, No. 5. pp. 304 310 WOMACK, J. P., 2011 Gemba walks. Lean Enterprise Institute, Inc. WOMACK, J. P. & JONES, D. T., 2003 Lean thinking, banish waste and create wealth in your corporation. London, Simon & Schuster UK Ltd. WOMACK, J. P., JONES, D. T., ROOS, D. & M.I.T, 1990b The machine that changed the world. Rawson.
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BUILDING INFORMATION MODEL VISUALIZATION THROUGH JAVASCRIPT-ENHANCED 3D-PDF INTERFACES

Lars Oberwinter Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria, Oberwinter@industriebau.tuwien.ac.at Iva Kovacic Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria, ikovacic@industriebau.tuwien.ac.at
Abstract Evolving capabilities of CAD software solutions for the building industry have led to a considerable gain of importance of Building Information Modeling techniques over the last years. Being connected by parametric data interfaces such as the IFC standard, all disciplines begin to make use of the evolving opportunities of bidirectional data exchange. However, merging the multitude of complex geometrical and factual Information contributed by the individual stakeholders into an integrated digital building model obviously leads to a variety of challenges concerning the file sizes, structural organization and file handling, especially in large-scale-projects. In this paper, we propose a method of using Adobes 3D-pdf engine along with embedded, JavaScript-based interfaces to easily access and handle building information models. To guarantee the persistent and easy accessibility of all relevant information for every party involved, a method was developed to explicitly gain an individual scope of information from the overall data structure and then gather it into a custom made 3D-pdf. By also enhancing the basic 3D-pdf functionality trough customizable, JavaScript-based features, we affirm that even the most complex 2D, 3D and 4D BIM content can be handled and navigated easily by any amateur. Additional automated texturing, lightning and mapping functions in combination with the Acrobats native functions for altering the building models display provide an eclectic range of high quality graphical outputs far beyond the opportunities of common IFC-viewing-software. Proposing enhanced 3D-pdfs as an interdisciplinary communication interface, we aim to offer any stakeholder of a buildings planning and construction process a slim and easy to use tool to access, visualize, comment and communicate even the most complex BIM content. Throughout the buildings life cycle, it also empowers both building owners and facility managers to inquire any desired building information by simply opening a single pdf file in Acrobat Reader. Keywords: 3Dpdf, BIM, interactive, interface, visualization.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Ascending requirements on the verification of a buildings static, thermal, ecologic and economic performance throughout its lifecycle have led to a considerable increase of complexity in the planning process. (Dossick, Neff, 2010; Cicmil, Marshall, 2005) In addition, new design tools and fabrication methods empower modern architects to explore all new levels of geometric complexity in their formal vocabulary. To cope with the variety of challenges in realizing such complex structures in an interdisciplinary planning process, new tools and working methodologies evolved from the conventional CAD-based instruments and principles of operation. Building Information Modeling (BIM) tools, based on parametric object databases, are about to oust classic two- or three-dimensional CAD programs by offering an enormous facilitation in many areas of the planning process. Just to name a few, BIM affords slimmer and easierto-use data structures, improved abilities to hierarchically organize building components, dynamic object display modes for all planning phases and disciplines and a more reliable interdisciplinary coordination of the ubiquitous continuing modifications (McGraw Hill, 2010). Also, by embedding and linking all parametric alpha-numeric information into the individual objects commonly represented by a 3D entity, it is possible to gain individual scopes of data from these entities and recombine them in a multitude of different, multiplatform interpretable file formats. Nevertheless, the wide variety of heterogeneous software solutions used within and between the different disciplines along with different drawing conventions and scales as well as individual levels of geometric detail lead to a considerable amount of challenges concerning the abilities of technical data exchange interfaces. Indeed, holistic interface approaches such as the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) are capable of both transferring and displaying complex interdisciplinary geometry and alphanumeric data (Building Smart, 2012). Beside from their main purpose of actual interdisciplinary data transfer, IFC data models can be explored and estimated by a variety of software solutions, ranging from simple IFC viewers such as the Nemetschek- or the DDS-CAD-IFC-Viewer to advanced modelchecking and analysis tools such as the Solibri Model Checker (IFC Viewer 1,2,3, 2012). These programs make use of the hierarchic IFC data structure and allow users to easily navigate through all building components by offering options to hide or display component groups such as stories and building element types. Along with these obvious advantages of the IFC standard there still remain quite a few challenges: The process of assembling integrated interdisciplinary building models requires a very high (and seldom reached) level of pertinent technical knowledge and detailed conventions between all stakeholders. (Sachs et al, 2010; Plume, Mitchell 2007; Arayici 2011) In large scale projects, the resulting IFC model file sizes can easily exceed a gigabyte, leading to a variety of inconveniences in terms of data transfer, viewing and estimating, especially on mobile devices. In addition, by far not all 3D CAD programs even offer an IFC interface and are only able to deliver geometric data such as the obj- or dwg-file format, which cannot (or only hardly) be assembled with IFC data structures. In addition, besides from the necessity of
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installing an IFC viewing program, quite some experience in navigating and handling 3D objects in virtual space is required (but typically not reached) from users such as building owners and facility managers trying to explore the virtual model. In this paper, we well illustrate a method of merging interdisciplinary 3D data content in heterogeneous file formats and generated by any 3D CAD- or BIM-Software, enriching the geometry with alphanumeric information to hierarchically structure and filter these data and finally assembling it within a slim and easy-to-use interactive 3Dpdf interface. Once set up and customized for the data structures in an individual interdisciplinary project content, these 3Dpdfs can be updated within shortest time and enable any project stakeholder to visualize and explore just the individual scope of model information demanded within a customizable interface.
2. STATE OF THE ART

2.1 Basic 3Dpdf Since the release of Adobe Acrobat 7.0 in January 2005, it is possible to display and navigate 3D content in the pdf file format (Adobe 3Dpdf, 2005). Since then, the technical abilities such as dynamic lighting- and shading-modes, model navigation, individual object display modes and many more along with the comparably tiny file sizes resulting from the U3D ECMA (Ecma International, 2007) technology encouraged many branches of industry to make use of this file format for their 3D model presentation and documentation. Nevertheless, 3Dpdfs never really made their way into the building industry for a variety of reasons: While small objects, in scales between a mobile phone and a piece of furniture, usually get along with the basic display- and navigation methods offered by Acrobat Reader, taller and more complex building models require advanced features to be easily navigated and examined. Even though Acrobat basically offers a way to navigate, select, hide and show a models components in the so called model hierarchy tool box, the lack of customizable structure in this list of model entities usually gives users a hard time trying to organize their model display, especially because typically there are hundreds of single objects in a file. In addition, the later on ease-of-use in pdf of an imported CAD model depends a lot on the way the 3D geometry data were brought into the pdf. Every 3D file format comes along with different possibilities concerning the later on data organization in pdf: For example, converting 3D dwg data into pdf provides the files layer structure within the Acrobats model tree, but cannot transfer any object names, texture- or mapping information. Vice versa, importing classic visualization file formats such as obj or 3ds leads to a flat (and by the way not even alphabetically sortable) object list in Acrobats model tree, making it almost impossible to quickly manage the content.
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At the moment, the highest level of hierarchically structured 3D building models in Acrobat is reached when importing IFC data. These allow to navigate the models hierarchy through stories, building components groups and individual objects with unique IDs. Nevertheless, file sizes are comparably big and there is no (standard) way to embed textures and mapping information, which leads to a rather poor model appearance. In addition, the aforementioned rather humble spread of programs even being able to produce decent IFC data leaves little room to actually consider IFC the standard case file format for building geometry content at the moment.
2.2 Customized Templates and JavaScript-Control Aside from the basic tool sets offered by Acrobat to alter a models display settings, Adobe enables users and developers to create custom sets of additional functions providing a buildin JavaScript functionality (Adobe JavaScript, 2012): On different document levels, this JavaScript engine allows not only to create automated model interaction processes (such as hiding all elements of a certain layer, material or name), but also provides the connection to Acrobats interactive Elements such as buttons and form field elements like drop-down-lists, checkboxes and so on. Even dynamic Flash menus can be used to interact with the 3D content through Action Script (Adobe Actionscript, 2012). In this way, complex model interaction (e.g. isolating a single building story containing hundreds of objects in a model without layer hierarchy) can be carried out within a glance by the click of a button given that the models objects are prepared to be controlled by such scripts. Through template files containing a place holder for the 3D content and a set of interactive elements such as buttons enriched with JavaScript commands to control the model content, it is possible to quickly convert individual geometry files into such interactive 3Dpdf. Specialized software applications such as Deep Exploration (Right Hemisphere, 2012), 3DPDF Converter (Tetra4D, 2012) or Publisher3D (QuadriSpace, 2012) offer tool sets for template design, 3D data conversion and script embedment in one package. This allows users to quickly (and even batch-) create 3Dpdfs from initial CAD geometry without having to worry about the technical details, once the template setup is completed. Still, in defiance to the enormous variety of opportunities of such JavaScript empowered pdf templates, in practice they are rarely pushed to the full extent of their functionality: Most 3Dpdf templates are confined to offering graphical masks with a few buttons to solve very basic Acrobat operations such as jumping to the next view or change the models shading- or lightning mode. Commonly, also two-dimensional document content can be altered in such masks, for example to hide or show text fields containing project information or navigation instructions. The reason for this rather low rate of capacity utilization in common pdf templates seems to be the aforementioned challenges concerning the CAD data structures: Both the 3D contents structure and the scripts have to be perfectly concerted, which requires a high level of conventions in organizing and structuring CAD data: Object names, layer structures, materials
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and so on have to be perfectly optimized for a given templates script functionality. Probably for this reason, most of the technically advanced examples of 3Dpdfs that can be found on the web are originating in the field of mechanical engineering, where large-scale companies with tight and database-powered CAD structures make use of this technology.
2.3 3Dpdf in the BIM context In the building industry, especially in the context of todays highly complex interdisciplinary planning process, the heterogeneous CAD software structures used by the stakeholders involved in a specific project lead to a variety of challenges concerning the organization, structuring and synchronization of the data structures (Owen et al, 210) Commonly, each planning discipline is using its own specialized software, layer structures and conventions such as drawing scale or level of detail. In addition, by far not all planning disciplines producing 3D content use BIM-powered software with according data hierarchies or interfaces such as IFC and hence are only able to deliver geometric content structured by fileand layer structures. For these reasons, merging interdisciplinary planning content into an integrated model often leads to a considerable amount of inconveniences in both producing and handling such files: Hundreds of referenced drawing layers, scale conversions and altering levels of detail, huge file sizes, just to name a few. In fact, some of the common BIM software solutions already offer build-in interfaces to directly produce 3Dpdf-files either through natively build-in functions or through third party plugins: Nemetschek Allplan (Nemetschek, 2012) for example offers opportunities to directly save planning content as 3Dpdf, producing files with embedded texture- and mapping information, a convenient data structure represented in Acrobats model tree and some basic pdf templates to embed the 3D content into layouts with additional 2D content. QuadriSpace offers Autodesk Revit (Autodesk, 2012) users a 3Dpdf converter plugin with comparable functionality (QuadriSpace, 2012). In fact, these 3Dpdf interfaces in BIM software solutions not only demonstrate the software producers awareness of the obvious potentials of this powerful file format they also deliver a very acceptable basic solution for the users of these BIM programs to quickly produce decent 3Dpdfs. Nevertheless, these possibilities for 3Dpdf creation are commonly confined to the actual native model elements of the respective BIM software. Third party and non-BIM 3D geometry imported into a BIM software, lets say MEP model elements delivered in dwg format brought into an architectural BIM-model, will cause many inconveniences when being exported into 3Dpdf: Imported geometry naturally doesnt contain the same grade of parametric information as a programs native objects and will hence cause troubles when being exported through an interface developed and optimized to handle these native elements. Besides from this, only few BIM programs even offer decent ways of integrating and managing complex 3D content from other stakeholders, not even taking into account further export-matters.
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Hence, it seems that at the moment, the possibilities of producing integrated and wellstructured 3Dpdfs containing all multi-party geometry and offering the conveniences of wellprepared functional templates is restricted to scenarios, in which all stakeholders are using the same (BIM-) software platform. In this paper, we will demonstrate a new method of merging, optimizing and filtering multidisciplinary geometry content for visualization purposes regardless of the way and software it was created in.
3. PROCEDURAL METHOD
3.1. Automated reorganization of CAD data through MAXScript To be able to (automatically) merge multi-platform generated model geometry along with the desired alphanumeric data later used to structure it, Autodesk 3DsMax was chosen as the software chassis to solve all primary data transformations. 3DsMax not only offers a wide variety of data interfaces to import all common file formats for three dimensional geometry through its build-in script language MAXScript (Autodesk 2012) and its wide variety of functions for scaling, transforming, optimizing, renaming, texturing and mapping geometry data, it is possible to automate any individual operation needed to create an appealing and highly functional interdisciplinary model as the basis for the sub-sequent transformation into 3Dpdf. In addition, any kind of ascii-based information stored in text files or charts can be interpreted by MAXScript, allowing to gain any kind of alphanumeric information and to apply it onto the models components. As MAXScript also allows users to batch all of 3DsMaxs file operations such as opening, importing and exporting files from and into a given folder structure, it is possible to differentially process many files by executing a single operation. This is essential because in the planning process, many disciplines creating 3D content still dont use programs with a build-in story-structure but rather work in single files per story. Due to the possibilities of creating graphical user interfaces in MAXScript, all of the functionalities to be described can be gathered in a compact toolbox and easily be run as a plugin on any 3DsMax workstation. The developed file- and folder-picking functions allow operation on any given folder structure. Making use of these basic 3DsMax functionalities, our MAXScript-based tools are able to quickly collect all planning content from a given (but customizable) folder structure, perform the requested transformations and optimizations and then freely recombine the merged data into new file structures later to be converted into 3Dpdf.
3.2. Data Merging In the building industry, the different planning disciplines and according companies commonly use their own individual drawing standards in terms of layer structures, working scales and levels of detail. Typically, when being brought together in a project, the
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stakeholders agree on basic conventions such as their 2D drawings origin and a projects relative z-point-zero to make data exchange easier. Nevertheless, the aforementioned heterogeneous software structure, the according disparities in the individual data structures and interfaces and a considerable lack of pertinent user knowledge commonly lead to the use of the least common nominator in terms of geometric data exchange. In addition, especially when talking about non-BIM software solutions without a story hierarchy, it is common practice to construct 3D-elements based on a discretionary z-point-zero in a single file per story, leading to problems when being merged into integrated models with an absolute z-point-zero. To cope with these challenges, the developed toolbox contains a bundle of functions for automatically scaling and positioning geometry objects properly during the import process into the integrated model. To be able to batch-apply a specific scope of operational functions on a set of files, the tool is designed to work on (customizable) folder structures: In this way, every file contained in a specific folder will be processed by the algorithms designated for this folder. Given that the individual file names additionally contain previously defined information about the building story they belong to (e.g. *Story_01*), it also possible to apply individual functions per file such as the altering z-offset. Example scenario: An architect uses BIM software to create a ten story building model, lets say ArchiCAD (Graphisoft 2012). Accordingly, all elements in this model are placed on absolute heights. The MEP engineer uses non-BIM software (e.g. some AutoCAD 2004 addon) to create a model of the ventilation- and heating elements, producing single files per building story and using the individual storys finished floor level as z-point-zero. For the merging, both offices export their geometry into the dwg file format and deposit it in a specific folder. First, the architects building model is imported into max, containing all building stories in a single file. The developed merging tool now allows to batch-import the individual MEP story files from a given folder into the model, adjusts their drawing scale and offsets the individual elements in height to fit their particular story. All that is needed to be prepared before this operation is a csv-chart or txt-file containing all of the story names and their absolute level heights and the according file name syntax. Trough this, the time consuming merging process of dozens of individual files from different interdisciplinary stakeholders in a large scale can be solved within shortest time. Thus, with just a few preparations, the assembly of an integrated building model containing all (geometric) information can be solved by the click of a button. Brought into a single file, the imported model elements are now ready to undergo further automated optimizations in the following steps.
3.3. Data Treatment At the moment, 3DsMax unfortunately doesnt offer an opportunity to directly produce 3Dpdfs. Hence, a choice had to be made, which 3D data file type exportable by 3DsMax suits all the needs for the subsequent conversion into pdf through any third-party-software. After
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an intensive practical study, the Wavefront file format (.obj) proved to be the most powerful choice: Even though this format only allows to structure the contained 3D data through the object names (no layers or stories), it offers all other desired abilities for visualization purposes: Multilayer materials, mapping information and cameras can be stored in obj-files. Also, 3DsMax-made mesh-optimizations such as vertex- and normal-welding for optimized geometry display and file sizes produce good results when converted to obj and hence deliver ideal conditions for a conversion into 3Dpdf. Due to the limited amount of characters in a single 3D objects name in obj files, it turned out helpful to encode all alphanumeric information placed in the object names. In addition, this makes a lot of sense for the subsequent object control through JavaScript in 3Dpdf. An Exemplary encoded object name syntax could be GR130_MT00035_SY05_SE1 GRoup 130, MaTerial-ID 35, on StorY 5, Structural Element = yes The group classification is usually based on the imported drawings layer structure, and is translated based on a chart or text file on import. In this example, group 130 marks all inner bearing walls. The building story value can be applied either through automated checking and comparing an objects z-coordinate with a given story list containing the corresponding absolute story heights, or through implementing the desired part of a filename when importing single-story geometry files. Through marking an object as a structural element, it is possible to easily isolate all bearing elements through JavaScript in Acrobat later on. Material-IDs can be applied based on the 3DsMax material names, allowing advanced display opportunities in 3Dpdf later on. When importing dwg- or other files without embedded material information, materials can also be automatically applied based on layer names (and through corresponding, customizable translation charts). Even though these four exemplary basic parameters already a allow a wide range of modelhandling and display conveniences in Acrobat, off course it is possible to add and encode any additional user defined parameters into the individual model nodes, such as desired construction time parameters for 4D construction phase simulation in pdf, objects surface areas for the use in facility management, room numbers, and so on. Anyway, in this case the effort depends a lot on the primary type of data BIM or non-BIM. To enrich non-BIM geometry data (lacking unique object IDs) with additional parameters from charts or textfiles, it is usually necessary to pre-structure these objects in corresponding layers delivering the parameter input information, again, through translation charts.
3.4. Gaining and filtering specific scopes of information Once assembled into an integrated model, the adequately tagged model components are ready to be gathered into arbitrarily arranged new model compositions. Thus, it is possible to provide any specific scope of model information for any project stakeholder: Bearing elements for civil engineers, HVACR-elements in the context of architectural elements for
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MEP engineers and facility managers, furniture, plants and lights for the building owners. Specifically assembled models for the different construction companies (faade, carcass, earthworks, etc.) can also be assembled and exported within the click of a button. Afterwards, the exported obj-Files can be batch-converted into respective template-based 3Dpdfs by any pertinent software or in Acrobat itself. These templates then contain the JavaScript-based menus and functions developed for the needs of the individual stake holders and that operate based on the model components name syntax. Even though it is also possible to generate integrated 3Dpdfs containing all components, in practice it has shown that file sizes become quite large due to the geometry-intensive furniture- and MEP elements, causing a rather poor graphical performance on standard PCs in Acrobat. According to this, it is a good idea to export integrated models into single-story assemblies, leading to a well-balanced compromise between performance and fully displayable interdisciplinary content.
3.5. Interactive interface design in Adobe Acrobat Once converted into 3Dpdf, the pre-optimized and tagged model components from the objfiles appear as a flat list of nodes in Acrobats model tree. Through JavaScript-functions working on either the document level or within the so-called 3D-annotation level, it is possible to access different properties of the individual model nodes. In the context of visualization, the most important properties are the nodes visibility, material and display mode. In looped functions, all model components can now be identified and accessed either through their entire name or through parts of it, which allows altering their properties either group wise or individually. For example, all objects with names containing the label SE1 (bearing structure element) can be isolated through a looped function showing these and hiding all elements without this label. Another example would be to always display all elements containing a glass material ID as transparent, even when the scene display mode is switched to a state with no transparency intended, such as Acrobats illustration mode. To decode the syntax of object labeling in order to gain information on the type of an object for example when clicking on it, translation-functions can be implemented to display a real world object name such as Fire Damper 01/35 instead of GR711_MT16855_SY01_SE0 by depositing corresponding string arrays on the JavaScript level. Thus, not only the interdisciplinary communication is facilitated by unique and comprehensible object identification, it also offers opportunities to search, isolate or focus the camera to specific model components. Especially when handling more complex geometry such as MEP elements as a facility manager or highly detailed facades as a constructor, this can be very handy. On the document level of a 3Dpdf, every type of Acrobats interactive form fields (buttons, radio buttons, checkboxes, etc.) can be used to call any JavaScript function. For example,
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unchecking a checkbox called Display Walls could both execute the according JavaScript function and deliver the state value (on or off) into it. For extended options, for example to display the walls either transparent, on or off, radio buttons can be used accordingly. Additionally, it is possible to create such form fields (i.e. menu items in the user interface) based on the 3D content: A JavaScript detects based on the syntax of the object names, how many stories (SY01,SY00,) are in a model, an then creates an according set of buttons allowing to isolate, hide or show each of these stories.
4. CONCLUSIONS
Once decided on a target structure and syntax for classifying and naming a models elements for a subsequent treatment in an interactive visualization interface, the challenge is to reduce the time-consuming processes of reorganizing and enriching the heterogeneous input data from all stakeholders. Employing 3DsMax as one of the market-leading and utterly capable visualization software to both collect all desired input data in (almost) every common 3D file format and from any given folder structure and then to label and classify all model elements according to the target syntax, it becomes possible to assemble integrated project models in shortest time. The only preparation needed to adopt these automation functionalities to a new projects stakeholder constellation is the customization of a single translation-chart for every stakeholders CAD structure and file system once at project start. Once brought together and labeled, the model components can now be automatically enriched by graphical information such as textures or mapping coordinates and any additional chart-based alphanumeric information. Based on the individual demands of all stakeholders, the model components can be assorted into new assemblies and afterwards be converted into 3Dpdf. JavaScript-empowered pdf functionalities based on the imported model labeling syntax along with custom interactive interfaces assembled in pdf templates then allow users to explore the model content: Isolating, highlighting or hiding large groups of building components, floor levels or individual structural elements interdependently through scripted functions along with the Acrobats basic functionalities to navigate and display models offer users an enormous range of opportunities to easily visualize any BIM content by just opening a pdf in Acrobat Reader. Besides, the estimated average file size for a single story, fully textured and mapped 3Dpdf in a large-scale project containing all interdisciplinary 3D content ranges between five and ten megabytes. By introducing this method of producing integrated interactive BIM visualization models, we aim to facilitate the access, visualization and communication of even highly complex geometric content in todays interdisciplinary planning process and would also like to illustrate a way to document these data for the use throughout a buildings life cycle.
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REFERENCES
Adobe 3Dpdf, 2005, Acrobat Release 7, Available at: www.adobe.com/aboutadobe/pressroom/pressreleases/200501/010505Acrobat.html [accessed 28 April 2012] Adobe Actionscript, 2012, Actionscript in 2D and 3Dpdf. Available at: www.adobe.com/devnet/actionscript.html [accessed 28 April 2012] Adobe JavaScript, 2012, JavaScript in 2D and 3Dpdf. Available at: www.adobe.com/devnet/acrobat.html [accessed 28 April 2012] Arayici Y., Coates P., Kiviniemi A. , Koskela L. and Kagioglou M., 2011. BIM implementation and Adoption Process for an Architectural Practice. FIATECH Conference, USA Autodesk, 2012, Revit Architecture, Available at: http://usa.autodesk.com/revit/architectural-design-software [accessed 28 April 2012] Building Smart, 2012. Available at: http://buildingsmart-tech.org/specifications/ifc-overview/ifc-overviewsummary [accessed 28 April 2012] Cicmil. S, Marshall D.,2005. Insights into collaboration at the project level: complexity, social interaction and procurement mechanisms. BUILDING RESEARCH & INFORMATION Vol. 33(6), pp. 523535 Dossick C., Neff G. 2010. Messy Talk and Clean technology: Requirements for Inter-organiaztional Collaboration and BIM Implementation within AEC Industry. Working Paper Proceedings, Engineering Project Organizations Conference, Lake Tahoe CA Ecma International, 2007, Standard ECMA-363 Available at: www.ecma-international.org/publications/standards/Ecma-363.htm [accessed 4 April 2012] Graphisoft, 2012, ArchiCAD 15, Available at: www.graphisoft.com/products/archicad [accessed 28 April 2012] IFC Viewer 1, 2012, Nemetschek IFC Viewer. Available at: www.allplan.net/cms/home/download0/downloadifcviewer.html [accessed 15 April 2012] IFC Viewer 2, 2012, DDS CAD Viewer. Available at: www.dds-cad.de/123x5x0.xhtml [accessed 28 April 2012] IFC Viewer 3, 2012, Solibri model checker. Available at: www.solibri.com [accessed 05 January 2012] McGraw Hill Construction, 2010, The Business Value of BIM in Europe, Available at: http://bim.construction.com/research/FreeReport/BIM_Europe [accessed 28 April 2012] Nemetschek, 2012, Allplan 2012, Available at: www.nemetschek.eu [accessed 28 April 2012] Owen R., Amor R., Palmer M., et al, 2010. Challenges for Integrated Design and Delivery Solutions. Architectural Engineering and Design Management, Vol. 6, pp. 232240 QuadriSpace, 2012, 3D pdf converter. Available at: www.quadrispace.com/products/pages3d/index.htm [accessed 28 April 2012] Plume J., Mitchell J.,2007. Collaborative design using a shared IFC building modelLearning from experience. Automation in Construction, 16 pp. 28 36 Right Hemisphere, 2012, Deep Exploration 3D pdf converter. Available at: www.righthemisphere.com/products/dexp [accessed 28 April 2012] Sacks R. , Kaner I., Eastman M.C., Jeong Y-S., 2010, The Rosewood experiment Building information modeling and interoperability for architectural precast facades. Automation in Construction, Vol. 19, pp. 419432 Tetra4D, 2012, 3D pdf converter. Available at: www.tetra4d.com/3d-pdf-converter.html [accessed 28 April 2012]
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NEXT GENERATION BUILDING

Kas Oosterhuis Hyperbody, TU Delft, ONL [Oosterhuis_Lnrd], Rotterdam, The Netherlands, oosterhuis@oosterhuis.nl
Abstract 1992 marks the end of my first decade of digital architecture. The first revolution in digital architecture took place in the eighties of the last century. In the first decade of digital architecture we explored 3d modeling with then advanced software Mechanical Engineering software of Intergraph. We organized the international event Artificial Intuition, the motto was to train the intuition using the logic of the computer. At home we experimented intuitive 3d modeling with the Atari 1024ST, we used the computer to sketch freely and be inspired and surprised by what we saw. ICT undisclosed new worlds of imagination. 2002 marks the end of my first decade of nonstandard architecture. The second revolution took place in the nineties of last century. We realized our first truly nonstandard works of art and architecture, we made buildings that were conceived as inhabited sculptures. We invented the multidisciplinary multimedia events Sculpture City and The Genes of architecture. We developed streamlined, smooth and in its basis symmetrical body plans as to evoke the logic of building bodies. We wrote about the design of vectorial bodies, bodies in speed, bodies in friction. The evolutionary body plan became the tool kit for our nonstandard architecture. In this decade we built the Elhorst/Vloedbelt, Saltwaterpavilion and the Web of North-Holland. 2012 marks the end of my first decade of interactive architecture. The third revolution in digital architecture took place in the years zero of this century. We embarked on the logical next step after having adopted nonstandard architecture as our natural basis. We wanted to maintain the information stream, we did not want to freeze the animation, as was suggested Greg Lynn. We wanted the building body to stay alive after the design process. I was invited to establish my own chair at the TU Delft and started a research group with the provocative name of Hyperbody, investigating the design, manufacturing and interactive operation of complex three-dimensional building bodies, free after the notion of hypertext [onedimensional] and Hypersurface [two-dimensional, we owe this term to the late Stephen Perella]. ONLs interactive NSA Muscle at Centre Pompidou and Hyperbodys numerous interactive prototypes [Muscle Body, Muscle Tower, Interactive Wall] are now considered to be icons of interactive architecture. Based on the notion that interaction must be a bidirectional exchange of data, information and knowledge became the natural initial conditions from where to look at the world. That world is a stage, while the people and the buildings are the actors on that stage. We entered the Internet of Things and People.
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2022 will probably mark the end of my first decade of the Next Generation Building [NGB], which will be self-conscious networked buildings. Each building can only live as a player in a larger network of buildings, in the end of the global network of all buildings, just like our own brains can only functions by virtue of its real time relationship with all other brains in this world. Intelligence is based on such relationship, since an isolated brain simply cannot survive or perform meaningful tasks. Neither can isolated building bodies. Looking forward to the basics of the NGB that will reach maturity in the coming decade, we involve ourselves into robotic and emotive architecture in all phases of the life-cycle of the built construct. We use robotic algorithms in the design process to define the smart self-conscious building components, we use industrial robots in the manufacturing process, we use large mobile robots in the assembly process, and the smart building components act and interact with the user in the operational and maintenance phase of the built environment. In fact we will deal with interacting swarms of these actors, in a close cooperative effort between robots and people. We will design inside evolution, inside the Internet of Things and People. We are aware of the fact that we live inside evolution at large, as we evolve the bits and the atoms, the minds and the machines at the same time. Keywords: next generation, digital, nonstandard, interactive, participatory, emotive, CNC, mass customization, made to measure, parametric, programmable, responsive, wireframe, BIM, component, node, network, swarm behavior, immersive ,embedded, inlay, robotic, vectorial, genetic, interlacing, interacting, species, multidisciplinary
1. LEVEL 1 IS THE MASS

The NGB as we define it today and as we can build today has a number of characteristics that need to be described first. In the first place the NGB has a mass, usually defined by external data such as requirements from the client, constraints from a context, environmental conditions, available budget, technical possibilities etc. In the early design phase, which we will call Level1 [L1] in the development of the building body, the mass is a parametric volume that is subject to many considerations that are coming from all possible stakeholders. All stakeholders including the client, the engineers, the manufacturers and the users are seen as designers in their own right. All stakeholders are seen as experts. The user has expertise in using the building body and must therefore be considered as an expert. When the client changes his/her target with respect to the m2 gross floor area [GFA] this has big impact on the conceptual mass and must hence be seen as a design decision, albeit different from other forms of design decisions like that of the conceptual designer, the stylist, the spatial expert that is typically the role of the architect. The architect of today must be seen as one stakeholder among many other stakeholders, as one expert in the swarm of experts, all of them having the authority to change one predefined aspect of the evolution of the NGB (Figure 1).
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Figure 1: Linked in Discussion Group The Expert Formerly Known As The Architect
The important discussion here is who has control. What form of control is there in a swarm of experts anyway? Can there be sort of self-organizing principle based on simple rules? That is what I am expecting to find out in the coming decade when implementing swarm behavioral principles in the actual practice of making buildings. That will be one aspect of the NGB.
2. LEVEL2 IS THE WIREFRAME

The wireframe of the moldable building mass is the skeleton, albeit a skeleton covered with muscles and skin, or an exoskeleton. The skeleton structure represents Level 2 [L2] of the development of the building body. The skeleton equals the loadbearing structure, which is the domain of the structural designer. That designer will be authorized to make changes in the basic principles of the structure. Other experts may tweak the proportions and distortions of the basic parametric structure. To make a proper definition of the skeleton we need to develop a precise parametric wireframe model. The wireframe model only traces the center lines of the structure. Changes in the L1 mass model are directly linked to the L2 wireframe model, and vice versa. All relations between the parameters driving the development of the building body must be kept intact at all times under all circumstances. So far there is no software available on the market to support the live parametric relations between all dynamic data driving the NGB. We have felt the need to develop a strategy for this which we have called protoBIM. protoBIM stands for building robust bi-directional
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relations between all levels of design as from the earliest program of demands and from the earliest conceptual ideas / sketches. ProtoBIM will form the basis for the continuous negotiations of the expert swarm.
3. LEVEL3 IS THE BUILDING COMPONENT

The wireframe model describes the paths of development of the components but not the building components themselves. Level 3 [L3] is represented by the nodes of the wireframe structure forming the reference points for the specification of the detail, which describe the constituting elements of the building body with accurate precision. Again the detail is a fully parametric detail such that it changes its configurations with every modification in the wireframe model (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Parametric node detail of the Cockpit, ONL 2005
Also the relation between L2 and L3 must be bi-directional, meaning that when the node changes that it will have effect on the wireframe and the mass. We observe that the development of a building body is just as well bottom-up driven by algorithms defining the nodes, as well as top-down driven by conceptual ideas and contextual constraints driving the mass. Typically many relevant data for the details and the materialization of the building components come from the manufacturers. Top-down and bottom-up forces are active during the whole life-cycle of the building body, interweaving the distinct levels of design.
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The wireframe level negotiates between the mass and the detail. It is within this negotiation level that the building bodies are made fit to perform and are optimized within the limitations / bandwidths of external and internal constraints. L2 is the arena where engineers negotiate the requests of the client and the manufacturers. The protoBIM approach links the different levels and hence links the client to the making of the building bodies via the knowledgeable experts, including the user-expert who defines the interaction with the built structures.
4. THE BODY
All levels together form the body of the building. The notion of the body as a whole is of extreme importance. It acknowledges the interaction between the components. My favorite proof for the interaction between bodily components is the development of headlights in modern cars. In the thirties of last century a headlight was a lamp, directly derived from old school gas lamps. The bulb replaced the gas fitting but the shape of the headlight remained similar. That is how most innovations find their way, first embed the innovation in the old disguise, then they can develop into a new logical order. Besides the headlight also the fenders, the bumpers, the grille, the hood, the ventilation openings are all designed as separate parts that were put together as a collage of loose parts. Obviously triggered by the increasing speed of cars and there rose a desire for streamlining and styling of the car body. The fenders merged with the hood into the body as a whole, the headlights merged with the grille, the bumpers with the front. Yet the cars were still designed from relatively flat points of view, the designer traced the side view, the front view, the top view separately and took care to align the different view. And then something happened in the development of cars that particularly interests me. The headlight merged into the body as a whole as to view the car body as a 3d object, as a strange object of desire. The body and its constituting parts like the headlight are no longer developed separately but merged by bi-directional relationships into the body as whole. This I see is the future of the NGB: a consistent but emotive body that consists of intricately interwoven parts, where all parts are unique and will only function on that particular position in the body. We leave behind the era of mass-customization that has been the driving force for Modernism, we are developing the NGB in the era of masscustomization. All building components will be unique in size and shape, naturally fabricated using CNC fabrication methods, using the robots in every aspect of design, fabrication and assembly. Parametric design, CNC fabrication, and robotic assembly will create the new sensory and responsive environments.
5. BODY PLAN
The body plan of the NGB is not a drawing, neither a diagram, but must be seen as a genetic structure holding the genes of the building body. The building body, just like the car body, will be mostly symmetrical in its basis, specified with local asymmetries. All signature
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buildings I have designed, the Elhorst/Vloedbelt, the Waterpavilion, the Web of NorthHolland, the CET, the Al Nasser headquarters, they all are share this feature. They all feature a symmetrical body plan, with local asymmetries. Like the steering wheel in the car, and like the position of the entrance of the building. There is another thing they share, that is the vectorial body. Each of them is a building body with a vector, an explicit forward moving dynamic. That forward moving feature they share with modern cars, which are intentionally designed as to evoke the sensation of leaping forward, muscled and lean like a jaguar. Just as is the case with cars, the public enters my building bodies from the side (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Side entrance vectorial body of the Waterpavilion, ONL 1997
There is no frontal central entrance like in traditional static architecture. Instead the vectorial body communicates to be in speed, and the proper way to get in is to step sideways into the dynamics of the building body.
6. BUILDING COMPONENT SPECIES

Inspired by the swarm behavior of birds in the flock, cars on the highway, people in the street, brains in the global knowledge, computers in the internet, I have developed the concept of smart swarming building components as to constitute the shell of the body. My first attempts were done in the previous decades. The Web of North-Holland takes an iconic position in the era of nonstandard architecture. The leading motto of the Web is One Building One Detail. Indeed the whole structure is based on one single parametric detail,
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mapped on the whole body. Even the doors are closely related specifications of this single detail. The Web has developed its own project-specific building catalogue, only raw basic materials are used to form the building components. The 2 mm thick Hylite aluminum sheets are CNC cut with the waterjet to form the skin panels, 2 to 4 cm thick steel plates are CNC heat cut and folded in the automated folding machine to form the structural parts. The single details can be seen as one swarm of members of the same species of nodes / components. In larger buildings there will be interlacing swarm of different building component species to weave the complete built structure.
7. SMART BUILDING COMPONENTS

Thee brief I gave to students and tutors of the multidisciplinary Hyperbody MSC2 project required the design of such interlacing swarms of building components, augmented with small brains (Figure 4).
Figure 4: ProtoSPACE 4.0 lab, MSc2 project Hyperbody 2009
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We defined the SBC as a parametric building block, as large as possible to produce using the CNC milling machine, as large as the raw materials allows us to design, and as large as is possible to handle onsite. The SBCs are assembled using dry assembly techniques. Meaning that the parts can be disassembled again and can be prepared for a second life just like the Web of North-Holland which was taken down to thousand pieces and resurrected as the iWEB at the TU Delft Campus (Figure 5).
Figure 5: iWEB resurrected at TU Delft Campus, ONL 2002
The smart building components [SBCs] communicate in real time with each other, indeed just like the birds in the flock, as to continuously transmit the latest updates concerning weather conditions, positions of the users, forces that they receive from actual wind loads etc. In each building component there is a small computer embedded that senses, processes and broadcasts information. Imagine a building where every component that constitutes the shell and every building component that constitutes the core are involved in a process of continuous communication, responding to the outside weather while interacting with their users. That building body has come alive, just like we ourselves have come alive on the basis of billions of interacting cells. A very primitive form of life indeed, but mind you, this will the first decade of the NGB composed of SBC, again we participate in a new beginning, the stone age of the NGB.
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SAFETY INCENTIVE PROGRAMS GOOD OR BAD RESOURCE FOR CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES?

Kamalesh Panthi East Carolina University, Greenville, USA, panthik@ecu.edu Syed M. Ahmed East Carolina University, Greenville, USA, ahmeds@ecu.edu James Patterson East Carolina University, Greenville, USA, Pattersonj11@students.ecu.edu John Hillman East Carolina University, Greenville, USA, Hillmanj09@students.ecu.edu
Abstract There is a lot of debate within the industry circle, including the construction industry, on the role of incentive programs on safety performance of a company. Occupational and Safety Health Administration (OSHA) is wary of the traditional safety incentive programs that companies have adopted reasoning that these traditional safety incentive programs reward employees for reduced injury rates (a lagging safety indicator). This would encourage workers to under-report or in some cases not report injuries in their work place at all. However, there are plenty of construction companies that have made a switch from simply rewarding employees based on the injury reports to actually rewarding employees for positive behaviors such as attending safety meetings, making safety suggestions, and reporting near-misses in the site (leading indicators). The objective of this research study is to find out the opinion of smaller construction companies about safety incentive programs. How do the incentive programs work in these companies? Is it behavioral based safety incentive, or merely based on the number of safety incidents reported? By conducting an online questionnaire survey of these small construction companies working in North Carolina, the answers to the questions posed above and more questions related to safety incentive programs will be sought. Keywords: Incentive, safety, injury, construction, OSHA
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1. INTRODUCTION
Use of incentives to motivate the workforce has been in use in one form or the other for a long time. Increases in productivity across different industry sectors as a result of implementing incentive programs have been documented in literatures. In 2010, , the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimated that 25 percent of U.S. manufacturers had safety incentive programs, and most had other workplace safety policies that, according to experts and industry officials, may affect injury and illness reporting (GAO, 2012). With positive outcomes seen in productivity as a result of workers incentives, the idea was then adopted to reduce workers injuries. The construction industry experiences unprecedented levels of injuries and fatalities every year. Therefore, managers are under extreme pressure to reduce the level of injuries and fatalities in their companies through some innovative techniques such as incentive programs. Many companies, who have implemented safety incentive programs (SIP) and experienced success in reducing the injuries and fatality, strongly favor where as others who have implemented SIP without any success are skeptics of the long term benefits of such programs. A study by Goodrum and Gangwar suggests that, on average, companies with an incentive program see improved safety results, while those that dont are more likely to falter (Goodrum and Gangwar, 2004).
2.1. OSHAs view on Safety Incentive Programs In its September 28, 2010 Directive on the Injury and Illness Recordkeeping National Emphasis Program (NEP), OSHA announced its intention to investigate company policies that may have the effect of discouraging recording on the injury and illness records . . . . Specifically, OSHA stated in the Directive that its Compliance Officers would look at an awards program tied to the number of injuries and illnesses recorded on the OSHA 300 Log, as well as the existence of incentive or disciplinary programs that may influence recordkeeping. The Recordkeeping Directive also contained specific interview questions that focus on the existence of such safety incentive programs: Does the Company have safety incentive program or programs that provide prizes, rewards, or bonuses to an individual or groups of workers based on the number of injuries and illnesses recorded on the OSHA 300 Log? Are there demerits, punishment, or disciplinary policies for reporting injuries or illnesses? (OSHA, 2010) OSHA is very concerned about incentive programs that discourage employees from reporting their injuries because, under section 11(c), an employer may not in any manner discriminate against an employee because the employee exercises a protected right, such as the right to report an injury.
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2.2. Motivation Techniques There are a number of different theories as to what motivates workers. The most commonly held views or theories are those by Taylor, Mayo, Maslow and Herzberg which are briefly discussed here. Frederick Winslow Taylor (1856 1917) put forward the idea that workers are motivated mainly by pay. His Theory of Scientific Management argued that workers do not naturally enjoy work and so need close supervision and control. Therefore managers should break down production into a series of small tasks and then workers be paid according to the number of items they produce in a set period of time- piece-rate pay. Elton Mayo (1880 1949) believed that workers are not just concerned with money but could be better motivated by having their social needs met whilst at work (something that Taylor ignored). He introduced the Human Relation School of thought, which focused on managers taking more of an interest in the workers, treating them as people who have worthwhile opinions and realizing that workers enjoy interacting together. Abraham Maslow (1908 1970) along with Frederick Herzberg (1923) introduced the NeoHuman Relations School in the 1950s, which focused on the psychological needs of employees. Maslow put forward a theory that there are five levels of human needs which employees need to have fulfilled at work. All of the needs are structured into a hierarchy and only once a lower level of need has been fully met, would a worker be motivated by the opportunity of having the next need up in the hierarchy satisfied. Frederick Herzberg (19232000) had close links with Maslow and believed in a two-factor theory of motivation. He argued that there were certain factors that a business could introduce that would directly motivate employees to work harder (motivators). However there were also factors that would de-motivate an employee if not present but would not in themselves actually motivate employees to work harder (hygiene factors). Safety Incentive Programs have been shaped by one or more of these theories. Maslows and Herzbergs theories are specially more relevant in todays work environment not only because they are the most recent ones of all the theories mentioned above, but also because they related to the broad spectrum of needs of the current workforce. Construction companies should realize that there are workers with different needs and therefore offer different safety incentives to different workers in order to help them fulfill each need in turn and progress up the hierarchy. They may therefore, have to offer a slightly different set of incentives from worker to worker.
2.3. Advantages and Disadvantages of SIP Advocates of safety incentives believe use of a carrot encourages and promotes appropriate safe behavior. It is a way for companies to show they care for their employees
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and will recognize those who work safely. Long-term behavior can be changed by creating heightened safety awareness and providing financial rewards for proper behavior. The result can be an improved morale and reduced workers compensation costs (Prichard, 2001). As a result of improved safety behavior, there are a number of benefits to the company implementing safety incentive programs. Such programs help to reduce recordable accidents, minimize losses and downtime, reduce insurance premiums, and above all project a good safety reputation of the company. A primary concern with incentive programs is that they are a form of bribery. As manipulative attempts at control, they are demotivators, creating significant motivation to cook the books (the underreporting of injuries and incidents to the management) rather than they do for changing actual in-the-field behavior (Prichard, 2001). Even major proponents of safety incentive programs can agree that safety incentives can discourage incident reporting if they are not administered properly (Miozza & Wyld, 2002) If safety incentive programs are not administered well, they do more harm than good. There may be a rift created within the workforce if there is unfairness in rewarding the workers. Safety Incentive Programs based on improving the safety behavior are difficult to administer because performance evaluation of these types of incentive-based programs are not objective and demand more time and resources.
2.4. Types of Incentives Since a variety of incentive techniques are available for positive reinforcement, there are pros and cons of each technique. Some of these techniques have proven to be more effective than the others and therefore, more popular. Whatever forms the prizes or awards be, they should not be so large that the goal becomes winning the prize rather than improving safety. On the other hand, if the reward is too insignificant, the incentive will be insulting and ineffective. The industry standard is often based at 12% of an employee's annual wages (Downing & Norton, 2004). Cash incentives such as safety bonuses, gift cards, company store credits are more popular among the construction companies. However, non-cash incentives often have a trophy value that these monetary rewards lack. Participants often view money as part of their compensation. Physical Project Mementos Many companies prefer to use various items imprinted with the company's logo and gift them to their employees as mementos. Tools used by construction workers may also be given as a gift. Company Social Activity/Social Gatherings are quite a variation from the individually focused incentives mentioned above.Rather than rewarding a few individuals for the improved safety, a bigger group of employees that have successfully reached a safety milestone are
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recognized by organizing company social activities such as dinner parties and other social activities. They are better in a sense that they encourage collective effort to work safely, but again may be counter-effective if there is peer pressure among the group members to not report the injuries/incidents in the fear of being reprimanded by other group members. Vacation and time off from the job may involve other family members, which is a better way to reinforce the good safety behavior of the worker as the family members will also motivate the worker to work safely. Advancement or promotion, although are a long term rewards of working safely and need more frequent short term rewards, are also quite effective. Safety incentive programs that reward workers by providing training and education related to their job are very effective means of encouraging behavior-based safety.
3. RESEARCH METHOD
The research study began with an extensive review of relevant materials from academic journals, professional journals, conference proceedings, and research reports to build up background knowledge about the safety incentive programs. The objective of the literature review was to develop an overall framework for the research study and to prepare for the questionnaire survey. A web-based questionnaire survey through Qualtrics (http://www.qualtrics.com/) was created with a set of 32 questions to be sent to approximately 39 construction companies working in North Carolina. The questions were targeted at the managerial level positions who had sufficient knowledge of both the safety and the company they represented. Such respondents would essentially be safety directors/ vice presidents or even the company executives. The type of survey conducted can be considered as convenience sampling drawn from a pool of construction companies who served in the advisory board of the Construction Management Department at East Carolina University. Although the initial survey was conducted to include contractors from a smaller geographical region, the ultimate aim would be to include a more representative sample of contractors from a bigger pool of contractors who worked in and around North Carolina. The questionnaire was designed to elicit responses on : (1) reasons for implementing safety incentive program (2) types of safety incentive program (injury rate- or behavior-based) (3) effects of safety incentive programs on construction safety performance (4) types of incentive awards (5) advantages and disadvantages of safety incentive programs. The questions were designed to generate responses in line with a five-point Likert scale from 1 to 5, where 1 represented strongly disagree; 3 = neither agree nor disagree and 5 represented strongly agree. Respondents were also invited to suggest and rate any other unmentioned choices based on their personal discretion and actual experience.
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4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

There were valid responses from fifteen companies. This constitutes about 38% of the total number of companies where the questionnaire was sent. Although sufficient responses have not been received so far so as to make any statistical inferences from this research study, preliminary results from the survey are presented here. Figure 1 shows the annual volume of work of the companies that responded to the question whether they had implemented Safety Incentive Program. It can be seen that SIP existed in both the small as well as the large companies. The number of companies that had adopted SIP and those that had not were almost equal. The majority of the construction companies that responded were mostly involved in commercial and infrastructure projects.
Figure 1: Annual volume of work of companies surveyed
4.1. Reasons behind Implementing SIP When asked what motivated the companies to implement safety incentive programs, all of them had similar reasons that is, to improve workers safety awareness/behavior, reduce recordable accidents, minimize losses and downtime, reduce EMR (Experience Modification Rate)/insurance premiums, and project a good safety reputation of the company.
4.2. Type of SIP (Injury rate- or Behavior-based) There were several questions designed to find out if the focus of the companies surveyed was to encourage behavior-based changes in safety and rewarding them (preventive) versus rewarding the workers based on the number of injuries reported (reactive).
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While all the companies that responded affirmed that the motivation behind implementing safety incentive program was to increase workers awareness in safety there were additional questions to gauge if their safety incentive programs actually were geared towards achieving this objective. When asked if they thought safety incentive programs would influence safety behavior of the workers, there was a clear division between those who felt it would impact and those who felt there was no difference before and after the implementation of safety incentive program as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Impact of SIP on safety behavior of worker
Respondents were equally divided over the impact of SIP on the safety awareness of the workers although those who had a positive view on SIP strongly agreed that there was a remarkable change in the safety awareness of the workers. Based on the response to the question that if the implementation of SIP had resulted in more number of workers reporting safety violation, it is quite obvious from the responses, as shown in Figure 3, that there is no clear agreement on this issue. Although the companies wished for a behavioral change in safety attitudes of the workers by implementing SIP, there was no indication that they had achieved it. This clearly leads us to believe that the SIP were geared towards lagging indicators that is, awarding incentives based on the number of injuries recorded.
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SIP Encourages More Employees to Report Safety Violation

Strongly disagree 0% Disagree 14% Neither agree nor disagree 29% Strongly agree 14%
Agree 43%
Figure 3: SIP encourages more employees to report safety violation
4.3. Effects of SIP on Construction Safety Performance In order to measure the effect of SIP on short term and long term safety performance of the companies, there were a few questions on the survey that would correlate the implementation of the SIP with some measurable safety outcomes, both short term and long term. However, with the insufficient responses, it was not possible to clearly relate the effect of SIP on construction safety performance. Those companies that responded affirmatively to the positive effect of SIP on safety performance believed that there was less downtime in their projects since implementing SIP. Companies were asked about their EMR before and after implementing SIP. Although it could not be determined from the responses whether EMR value was linked with the SIP in place, there was no appreciable change in EMR values in majority of the companies that had implemented SIP. Only two companies who had implemented SIP had reduction in their EMR values.
4.4. Types of Incentives Awards There are different types of incentives given to the workers by the management based on their safety records. While some reward workers based on their overall safety behavior whereas the others reward workers simply based on the records of their injuries/incidents while working. Some of the popular rewards are monetary benefits (safety bonuses, gift cards), physical project mementos (clothing, awards), tools, company social activity, paid vacation, recognition, time-off, advancement, and training and education. Of these, the majority of the companies that were surveyed relied on monetary incentives as shown in Figure 4. Recognition of workers in some form was also popular among the companies surveyed.
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Types of Incentives
Other Training + Education Advancement Time Off Recognition Vacation/Paid Vacation Company Social Activity/Social Gatherings Tools (New Tools for Workers or Personal Tools) Physical Project Momentos (Clothing, Awards....) Monetary Benefits (Safety Bonuses, Gift Cards, Company Store Credits...)
0%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% % of Companies Surveyed
60%
Figure 4: Types of incentives
There are also various scratch-off type safety incentives to motivate workers. Some of these that have been used by companies in general to motivate their workers to work safely are: starperks, safety jackpots, safety bingo, scratch safe, and some custom made scratch cards for the company. However, none of the companies surveyed resorted to one of these types of awards.
4.5. Advantages and Disadvantages of SIP As pointed out earlier in the literature review, there are many advantages and disadvantages reported by companies and other safety monitoring agencies regarding SIPs. Incentives have been used and reported to increase productivity among workers for a long time. However, when that incentive is used to motivate workers to work safely, critics of SIP believe that such safety rewards simply secure a temporary compliance with the safety directives and only for as long as the workers see a direct connection between their action and reward. Hence, in the long term there is hardly any improvement in the safety performance of the companies. Majority of the companies that responded had a view that rather than educating workers about their safety, they were motivating the workers to comply with safety regulations. These extra incentives were required in order to motivate workers. Only few companies agreed that they saw a distinct advantage of using SIP as they experienced bigger profit coming out of smaller workers compensation cost. When asked if SIPs were reasonably difficult to implement and administer, the response was equally divided as shown in Figure 5. Another drawback related to SIP is that workers do not
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report the injuries and accidents in the fear of losing these incentives if the awards are tied to their injury/accident records.
Figure 5: Respondents agreement on difficulty of administering SIP
5. CONCLUSIONS
There have been differences in opinion among industry professionals regarding the real value of safety incentive programs on the overall long term safety performance of the companies. OSHAs extra vigilance in recent years over those companies that have safety incentive programs has cast a doubt on management who would like to have a SIP in their company. The overall intention of the research was to investigate if there was any correlation between the companies that had implemented SIP and their long term safety performance. What kinds of safety incentives were producing the desired benefits of better safety performance over a long term? Were the safety incentive programs of those companies that achieved better safety performance encouraged behavior based safety? In order to make generalized statements and establish relationships with the different research variables, a larger sample was required. The responses received from the companies surveyed at the time of writing this paper were not sufficient to perform a statistical based analysis. However, when more companies respond to the survey questionnaire, a more meaningful result to conclude on the different questions posed above can be achieved. However, the initial responses have indicated that: the main reason the companies implemented SIP was to improve workers safety behavior although there were no measureable records to show that they were achieving this objective the companies incentives were not aligned towards achieving behavior-based safety improvement, rather they were focused on motivating workers to comply safety regulations
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although companies realized short term benefits of implementing SIP through less downtime, there were no solid indicators to prove if these also had a long term consequence on safety performance monetary incentives, in the form of bonuses, gift cards, were the most widely used forms of incentives although there exists a large number of scratch-off type safety incentive programs, including some like Safety Jackpot that are quite popular, the companies surveyed did not have any of these types of incentives the managers perceived that under-reporting of injuries/accidents could be a potential problem associated with SIP. When sufficient responses are received, it is hoped that authors will be able to make definitive conclusions based on statistical analysis and present a continuation research paper on the completed questionnaire survey.
REFERENCES
Downing, D. & Norton, J. (2004). Safety Incentives: Myths and Realities. Occupational Health & Safety, 73(1), 62 66. Goodrum, P.M., and Gangwar, M. (2004). Safety Incentives A Study of their Effectiveness in Construction. ASSE Journal of Professional Safety, July 2004. Government Accountability Office (GAO) (2012). Highlights of GAO-12-329, A Report to Congressional Requesters. http://www.gao.gov/assets/590/589961.pdf Miozza, M. L., & Wyld, D. C. (2002). The Carrot or the Soft Stick? The perspective of American Safety Professionals on Behavior and Incentive-based Protection Programs. Management Research News, 25, 23 41. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) (2010). Directive on the Injury and Illness Recordkeeping National Emphasis Program. http://www.osha.gov/OshDoc/Directive_pdf/CPL_02_10-07.pdf Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) (2012). http://www.osha.gov/as/opa/whistleblowermemo.html Prichard, R. (2001). Safety Incentive Programs: A Critical Assessment. International Risk Management Institute (IRMI). http://www.irmi.com/expert/articles/2001/prichard04.aspx Smitsh, S. (2004). Safety Incentives: Why Cash isnt King. EHS Today, March 12, 2004. http://ehstoday.com/safety/incentives/ehs_imp_36893/
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SIMULATION ANALYSIS FOR FLOATING CAISSONS CONSTRUCTION OPERATIONS

John-Paris Pantouvakis National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece, cvapanas@mail.ntua.gr Antonios Panas National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece, cvapanas@mail.ntua.gr
Abstract The objective of this paper is the study and analysis of the operations taking place for the construction of floating caissons using computer simulation. The model building process is delineated along with an explanation of the key production parameters. Field data were collected by the use of direct observation and processed to determine statistically acceptable probability density functions for each activitys duration. A baseline simulation model is defined and alternative operational scenarios are examined based on modifications of the models input parameters. The model simulates the construction process and variables such as crew size, resources deployment and workflow strategy are incorporated in the model. These variables are adjustable according to the particulars of each operational scenario and the effect on production rates and total work hours is estimated for each configuration. A construction-oriented discrete-event simulation language (Stroboscope) was used to develop the model. The main inferences emerging from the study denote that the flexible use of resources is a key factor for increasing the efficiency of the operations. In addition, external factors, such as the learning rate, have to be taken into account, in order to assure the models validity. Finally, practical implementations and limitations of the developed model in similar construction operations are discussed. Keywords: floating caissons, model, productivity, resources, simulation.
1. INTRODUCTION
Floating caissons are prefabricated concrete box-like elements with rectangular cells that are suited for marine and harbor projects, such as ports, breakwaters, wharves, berthing facilities and docks, dry docks and slipways, fishing ports, marinas and container terminals (Halpin and Marinez, 1999). Given the size of the investments involved, the implementation of high-level analytical techniques, such as simulation modeling, for the study of caissons construction, ensures the quality of the proposed solutions and minimizes the risk of design problems that will affect the project operation, once they have been implemented. Hence, the objective of
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this paper is to study the operations involved in the construction of floating caissons from a productivity standpoint, so as to scrutinize the critical factors which affect the pace of works. The structure of the paper is as follows: First, background information on pertinent research on construction simulation studies is going to be provided, followed by a concise description of the selected simulation language and software. Then, the research methodology is going to be delineated and, subsequently, the model set-up process, including the definition of the workflow and the distribution fitting procedure will be presented. The models verification, analysis and validation will be described and, finally, the sensitivity analysis along with the main emerging inferences will conclude the study.
2. BACKGROUND
Construction operations call for decisions to be made that should be based upon credible information. Simulation models are able to assist the decision-making process by highlighting the inherent characteristics of the modeled system (AbouRizk et al., 2011). Using computer simulation tools, models can be built that represent the overall logic of various activities required to construction a facility, the resources involved in carrying out the work (e.g. crews, equipment, management) and the environment under which the project is being built (e.g. weather, ground conditions, labour pools, market situation) (AbouRizk, 2010). Discreteevent simulation has been extensively used for the analysis of construction systems (Martinez, 2010) and covers a wide spectrum of projects ranging from large infrastructure projects, such as the construction of bridges (Said et al., 2009), to specific machine-intensive (Al-Hussein et al., 2006) or labour-intensive operations (Huang et al., 2004). In this study, the advanced simulation software products STROBOSCOPE and EZStrobe were employed. The state and resource based simulation of construction processes (STROBOSCOPE) simulation system is an advanced general purpose simulation tool that can determine the state of the simulation and the characteristics of the resources involved in an operation in a dynamic fashion (Ioannou and Martinez, 1999). The EZStrobe simulation platform was developed, so as to enable the use of the STROBOSCOPE simulation language in a more simple and graphical form (Martinez, 2001). EZStrobe is based on Activity Cycle Diagrams (ACD) and implements the three-phase activity-scanning paradigm. The reader is referred to Martinez (2001) for a detailed description of the modeling elements used for the EZstrobe system.
The research methodology is depicted in Figure 1 below. First, the model is being set up by the use of the preferred simulation language (e.g. STROBOSCOPE). The model set up depends on the method statement which determines the type and sequence of the
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activities involved in the operation under study. Then, the data collection process initiates which comprises direct observation of construction activities combined with experts input (e.g. interview with project manager) to improve the robustness of the created data sets. Subsequently, the sample independence and homogeneity must be assessed. The former is evaluated by the use of ordered plots or scatter diagrams. The latter is a critical parameter of the input modeling process and should be assessed based on the KruskalWallis hypothesis test for homogeneity (Law, 2007). The possible distribution functions can be selected along with their parameters based on summary statistics (e.g. quantile summaries, box plots) (Martinez, 2010). The goodness of fit for the selected distribution is being evaluated by the creation of specific graphs (e.g. Q-Q or P-P plots) combined with statistical checks (e.g. Chi-square, KolmogorovSmirnov, AndersonDarling) (AbouRizk and Halpin, 1990; Maio et al., 2000). An iterative process is being initiated until the proper distribution has been defined. After the statistical checks have been successful, it is assured that the model is verified, namely that it actually represents what the developer or engineer had in mind (Shi, 2002). In the case of failure to verify, the model set-up process must be revisited to adjust accordingly. Upon verification of the model, simulation runs can be executed. First, pilot runs are executed to define the models behavior. If satisfied, the number of independent replications is determined and the simulation experiment is designed. The results are compared to the actual data and it is evaluated to what extent the abstract model corresponds to the actual situation on-site, i.e. model validation. If the validation results are not satisfactory, new data must be provided to the model so as to improve its accuracy. Sensitivity analysis is performed to optimize the models performance under variation of the critical model parameters (Hong and Hastak, 2007) and, ultimately, decisions are being made regarding the resource deployment and workflow strategies based on the analysis results. Sometimes, the decision making process requires the examination of alternative scenarios (e.g. different construction methods and techniques). In this case, alterations in the model set-up must be induced, so as to represent the variations in the operational setting. A detailed description of the methodological frameworks implementation in the analysis of the floating caissons construction is presented in the following sections.
Data collection Distribution fitting Statistical checks ok? No No Verification ok? Yes Validation Analysis of results Yes
START
Model set up
Verification
No END Decision making Sensitivity analysis Yes Validation ok?
Figure 1: Methodological framework
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4. MODEL DEVELOPMENT
4.1. Definition of workflow The project in hand regards the construction of 34 floating caissons (WxLxH = 15m x 24,80m x 19,70m) by the use of the slip form technique. Slip form is a sliding-form construction method, which is used to place vertical concrete structures. The reader is referred to Zayed et al. (2008) for more information about the mechanics of the slipforming operation. The caissons are constructed in pairs. Their base and almost half of their total height is constructed on a floating dry dock (Phase A). Due to weight capacity restrictions on behalf of of the floating barge, when the caissons reach a certain height (+9,00m) the barge sinks, the two caissons are towed in the water by a tug boat and the construction continues until it reaches the final elevation (+19,70m) (Phase B). The developed EZStrobe model is depicted in Figure 2. The workflow for the construction of the floating caisson (activity/resources names in brackets) is described in the following paragraphs. First, the formwork is being set (BsFrmwork) on a floating dry dock (FlDockAvl) for the construction of the caissons base with the aid of a specialized crew (FrmWrkCrew). Then, the base reinforcements are installed (BsRnBrs) by the respective crew (RnfBrCrew) and the base concrete pouring (CncrBsPr) is executed by the concrete crew (CncrCrew). When the concrete base is complete, the reinforcement crew places secondary horizontal and vertical reinforcements (ScndRnBrs) and the caissons are ready for the slip-form assembly (Assmbl) process to begin. The slip-form system comprises of modular metal panels which are being placed on the outer wall perimeter, as well as in every internal cell. The assembly process entails several subtasks (e.g. welding, fitting, hydraulics mounting, electrical/mechanical installations) which are not explicitly represented in the model but rather summarized in one activity executed by the assembly crew (AssmblCrew). After the completion of the assembly process, the Phase A of the slipforming operations can begin. The preparation for the initial concreting (PrinCncrA) entails all supporting activities before the slipforming, such as concrete pumps set up, moorings of the floating barge etc. A safety check is undertaken prior to slipforming (SftChkBfSlA) and the initial concrete pouring (InCncrA) starts in layers of 2025cm thickness. After a sufficient period of time which depends on the concrete setting time, the slipforming begins (SlpfrmA). At the +9.00m elevation slipforming stops and the free lifting activity begins (FrLftA), namely the metal forms are being raised +0.60m above the last concrete layer, so as to facilitate cleaning of their surface. Then, each metal panels surface is being washed (Wsh) by a specialized crew (WshCrew) and, upon completion, the floating barge is sunk and the removal crew (RmvlCrew) re-installs (Rmvl) both caissons to their new position adjacent to the floating barge. If the removal is completed in nighttime (5% probability of happening), then the whole system comes to a halt until the next morning (810hrs). The floating dock is then surfaced and becomes available again (FlDockAvl) for the commencement of the new cycle.
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Figure 2: Floating caissons EZStrobe simulation model
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In parallel, Phase B is run in exactly the same manner as Phase A in terms of the activities sequence. Having reached the level of +19.70m and following the completion of the free lift (FrLftB), the dismantling (Dsmntl) of the slipforming equipment begins by the deployment of the dismantling crew (DsmntlCrew). After the dismantling, the slipform equipment will be available for assembly on the base of the next two caissons. It should be noted that after the completion of each cycle the constructed caissons are tugged into their final position and sunk along the new quay wall, however, this activity is not critical for the model under study and hence was excluded from the analysis.
4.2. Data collection and distribution fitting Productivity field data expressed in workhours/activitys output (e.g. whs/m3 or m etc.) have been collected for every activity depicted in Figure 2. The direct observation technique complemented by time-lapse video was deployed to record the data based on the construction of the first 10 caissons. The minimum number of data points in each dataset was 10 and the maximum 139. The decision to use workhours instead of purely time duration was due to the dynamically changing crew size, especially during the construction of the first six caissons. In typical simulation models, crew sizes are assumed to be constant (typical crew), however, if such an approach was to be adopted in this study, then the variance induced into the model by the increase/decrease in crew size would not have been incorporated in the model. The latter would significantly depreciate the models validity. The recorded durations for each activity were fitted to a pre-defined probability distribution (Beta, Erlang, Exponential, Gamma, Normal, Triangular and Uniform) based on the analysis of the collected data. The BestFit distribution fitting add-on of the @RISK (Palisade, 2012) software package has been used for the distribution fitting process. Indicatively, the distribution fitting process for the slipform activity will be presented next. For every caisson, two slipforming datasets (Phase A and B) were created. First, the homogeneity of the measurement was evaluated by the use of the KruskalWallis test. Interestingly, it was found that the test was marginally successful for the datasets stemming from caissons 7,8,9,10. In other words, merging all 10 datasets would be statistically invalid and would probably result to misleading productivity calculations. Furthermore, for the first six caissons, the homogeneity test was successful only for pairwise combinations. More specifically, the statistical analysis demonstrated that different distributions should be derived for caissons 1-2, 3-4 and 5-6 respectively. This denotes that the external conditions of the simulation model were constantly changing and a possible explanation of the root cause for this behavior will be provided in the following section. Moreover, sample independence was assessed through a scatter diagram (Figure 3), which is a graph of X(i+1) versus X(i). Figure 3 shows that the data are well scattered with no particular trend amongst them. Finally, the selection of the best fitted continuous distribution function and the determination of its parameters was based on quantile summaries. Additionally, the chi square, KolmogorovSmirnov and AndersonDarling tests at a 90% significance level
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were also taken into account. Ultimately, the beta distribution was found to be satisfactory for slipforming both in Phase A as well as Phase B. Figure 4a/b presents a comparison between the input data and the fitted beta cumulative distribution function as well as its respective P-P plot.
Figure 3: Slipform activity scatter diagram
Figure 4: Slipform activity (a) beta CDF and (b) P-P plot
5. VERIFICATION, ANALYSIS AND VALIDATION

The verification process has been threefold, by implementing the three white-box methods proposed by Shi (2002). First, the model set-up was verified by consultation with the project director and the site engineer. Then, the program per se was tested by confirming the sequence of the activities execution. EZStrobes inherent animation features were used to visualize the simulation progress and ensure that the chronological order of the activities was correct. A deterministic pilot run of the model was also executed for each
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caisson 7, 8, 9 and 10 to check the starting activities and their conditions, while the produced simulation report was utilized to control the logic behind the initiation conditions of the models resources and activities. The summary statistics of each pilot run coincided with the actual measurements on site (mean durations, achieved productivity). Finally, EZStrobes generated trace output served as a yardstick against which the resources flow between the activities was again verified. The simulation results were based on 20 independent replications yielding an average productivity of 2.098,85 whs/caisson, which was slightly overestimated in relation to the actual workhours duration of caissons 7 (5,59%), 8 (6,87%), 10 (1,08%) and almost the same with caisson 9 (0,24%), as shown in Figure 5. After extensive consultation with project experts the models face validity has been deemed to be at a satisfactory level.
Figure 5: Simulation results and validation with actual data
In view of the findings in the previous section regarding the homogeneity of the slipforming datasets, the plotted dashed line in Figure 5 demonstrates what the simulation results would be if all slipforming datasets were merged without examination of their homogeneity. It is apparent that the models performance would be invalid, since it should provide estimations which either significantly underestimate (caissons 1, 2, 3) or severely overestimate productivity (caissons 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) in a magnitude ranging from 36,54% (caisson 1) to +38,05% (caisson 8). Obviously, no credible decisions could be based on that type of analysis. An evident explanation for the aforementioned findings is the strong learning curve behavior that is achieved in the system. Indeed, there is a 53,48% reduction in the total workhours/caisson from caisson 1 (4272,50 whs) to caisson 7 (1987,67). These findings highlight the significance of the external conditions that must be seriously taken into account and explicitly documented if not possible to be incorporated in the models scope, as was done in this study by enabling the inclusion of the changing crew size effect.
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6. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
This section presents the results of a sensitivity analysis conducted to estimate the effects of changes in the crew size. The reinforcement installation crew and the concrete pouring crew were selected for the analysis, since they are critical resources for involved in the majority of the models operations. The 2k full factorial design technique has been implemented by simulating the deployment of one, two or three crews. In total, 23=9 combinations were examined whose results in terms of total work hours and productivity rates are presented in Table 1. Reinforcement / Concrete crews 1/1 1/2 2/1 2/2 3/1 3/2 1/3 2/3 3/3 Total amount of workhours 79.181 79.181 78.908 77.151 78.908 77.151 79.181 77.151 77.151
Table 1: Sensitivity analysis
Productivity rate (whs/caisson) 2.328,85 2.328,85 2.320,85 2.269,17 2.320,85 2.269,17 2.328,85 2.269,17 2.269,17
It should be noted that for every alternative scenario the seed numbers have been kept the same in order to endure similar experimental conditions for all system configurations. In addition, the common random numbers (CRN) technique has been implemented to control and synchronize the random number streams used in the model. The analysis demonstrates that the baseline scenario of deploying one crew of each trade which has been analyzed in the previous sections might not by the optimum, since there are four other combinations that yield better results, namely lower amount of workhours and increased productivity. A possible explanation for this finding would probably be the fact that the increase of the crew size enables activities to take place on the floating dock (base formwork, base ironing, base concrete pouring) concurrently with the slipforming operations of Phase B which are executed adjacent to the floating dock and use the same resources (reinforcements and concrete pouring crews). However, the final decision has to be made by taking into account a more generic view of the project operations and its needs as a whole. For example, given that the full cycle for the construction of a pair of caissons lasts approx. one week and assuming that the achieved productivity by the seventh caisson will be kept nearly constant, an improvement of about 79.18177.151=2.030whs corresponds to shortening the time schedule of the project by almost one week. The projects duration is estimated at 79.181/2.00040 weeks, so the improvement in the time schedule would be 2,5%. Furthermore, the addition of extra crews may yield additional costs that could outweigh the
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benefits described before. On any case, the purpose of the simulation study is to provide the credible information to the decision makers and it is up to them to decide of whether to implement any changes or not.
7. CONCLUSIONS
The objective of this paper was the development and validation of a credible simulation model for the construction of floating caissons. The implementation of the developed methodological framework was successful and the achieved accuracy of the simulation model was accepted by the project executives. The importance of the external conditions, such as the learning effect, and the contextual information underpinning the recorded field data was highlighted, since failure to acknowledge their implications for the analysis can result in adverse effects for the models validity. The sensitivity analysis has identified critical resource parameters, but has also demonstrated that decisions should be taken only after having considered their implications on the project as a whole. In total, the developed model is believed to be a practical tool for both academia and practitioners and possible extensions to include the examination of alternative construction methods and the inclusion of cost factors could be potential topics for further elaboration in the future.
REFERENCES
AbouRizk, S., M., and Halpin, D., W., 1990. Statistical properties of construction duration data. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 118, No. 3, pp.525544. AbouRizk, S., 2010. Role of simulation in construction engineering and management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 136, No. 10, pp. 11401153. AbouRizk, S., Halpin, D., W., Mohamed, Y., and Hermann, Y., 2011. Research in modeling and simulation for improving construction engineering operations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 137, No. 10, pp. 843852. Al-Hussein, M., Niaz, M., A., Yu, H. and Kim, H. 2006. Integrating 3D visualization and simulation for tower crane operations on construction sites. Automation in Construction, Vol. 15, No. 5, pp. 554562. Halpin, D., W. and Martinez, L., H., 1999. Real world applications of construction process simulation. Proceedings of the 1999 Winter Simulation Conference, Society for Computer Simulation, pp. 956962. Hong, T. and Hastak, M., 2007. Simulation study on construction process of FRP bridge deck panels. Automation in Construction, Vol. 16, No. 5, pp. 620631. Huang, R., Chen, J., J. and Sun, K., S. 2004. Planning gang formwork operations for building construction using simulations. Automation in Construction, Vol. 13, No. 6, pp. 765779. Ioannou, P. and Martinez, J., C., 1999. General-purpose systems for effective construction simulation. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 125, No. 4, pp. 265276. Law, A., M., 2007. Simulation modeling and analysis. 4th edition, McGraw-Hill, New York. Maio, C., Schexnayder, C., Knutson, K. and Weber, S. 2000. Probability distribution functions for construction simulation. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 126, No. 4, pp. 285292.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Martinez, J., C., 2001. EZStrobe Introductory general-purpose simulation system based on activity cycle diagrams. Proceedings of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference, Society for Computer Simulation, pp. 15561564. Martinez, J., C., 2010. Methodology for conducting discrete-event simulation studies in construction engineering and management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 136, No. 1, pp. 316. Palisade, 2012. @Risk 5.5 software. Palisade Corporation, Available at www.palisade.com (accessed 30/4/2012). Said, H., Marzouk, M. and El-Said, M., 2009. Application of computer simulation to bridge deck construction: Case study. Automation in Construction, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 377385. Shi, J., J., 2002. Three methods for verifying and validating the simulation of a construction operation. Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 20, No., 6, pp. 483491. Zayed, T., Sharifi, M., R., Baciu, S. and Amer, M., 2008. Slip-form application to concrete structures. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 134, No. 3, pp. 157168.
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BUILDING INFORMATION MODELING (BIM) FOR DATA SHARING & COLLABORATIVE WORKING IN CONSTRUCTION
John-Paris Pantouvakis National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece, jpp@central.ntua.gr In the long history of humankind those who learned to collaborate and improvise most effectively have prevailed. Charles Darwin
Abstract Construction projects are large and costly. BIM offers the necessary ground to enable data sharing and collaborative working between participants so that resources are used more effectively and efficiently, innovation is facilitated and construction costs are reduced. At the same time, BIM requires a different technological, organizational, and social setting. This paper provides insights for construction researchers, practitioners and educators into the necessary educational and technological background, as well as into the development, implementation and use issues and limitations of current BIMs. Keywords: Building Information Model, BIM, collaborative working, legal issues.
1. INTRODUCTION
In the UK, the Latham and Egan reports (Latham 1994; Egan 1998) have emphasized various aspects of collaboration to enable a more efficient and effective design and construction procurement. Today, BIM (Building Information Modeling) is a collaborative environment which is currently being adopted three times faster than 2D CAD software was in the early 1990s (NBS, 2012). However, implementing BIM requires changes in the working habits (data structures and processes) of construction professionals (McGraw-Hill, 2009). While they have been trained and got used to construction drawings, 3D CAD, linked databases, spreadsheets and in a somewhat isolated (or at least, in a non-structured collaborative) working, they should convert to integrated digital building models containing construction elements with embedded information about the product and its placement, material, specification, fire rating, U-value, fittings, finishes, costs, carbon content and any special requirements, interoperable workflows, web communication and knowledge capture. At the same time it is known that the Construction industry is typically slow in adopting change. Some argue that BIMs will be an exception to that rule (Qiping Shen et al, 2009) as benefits are important and outweigh by far the required investment. Benefits include better
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design co-ordination and drawing production, clash detection, integrated information management and exchange, improvements in design quality, sustainability and client communication, reducing the cost of changes, clearer scheduling, reduced construction phase costs and swifter fabrication (Barlish & Sullivan, 2012). BIM may also encompass numerous other functions such as checking planning regulations, through the whole life-cycle of a constructed facility. Its core strength is that all the parties contribute to the central model and draw from it (BSI, 2010). There are also competitive advantages for the whole construction supply chain and green benefits. BIM is a key contributor to a more energy and cost efficient construction industry from both a capital cost (capex) and operating cost (opex) perspective. In some cases the use of BIM is anticipated, as for example in the UK, where the recent Construction Strategy report (BIM Working Party, 2011) stated that the Government's intention is to require collaborative 3D BIM (with all project and asset information, documentation and data being electronic) on its projects by 2016. While the time is limited and BIM technology and related standards are evolving, the use of BIM on construction projects raises new issues relating to collaboration, contractual responsibility, liability and University education (Succar, 2009) which have not previously been met or considered. In this paper we focus on technical but mainly on organizational and social aspects of BIM implementation.
2. BUILDING INFORMATION MODELING

Building Information Modeling or BIM is a fully detailed (integrated) 3D model of a project which allows for detailed coordination of all design elements and for avoidance of field coordination problems in advance of construction (Fig. 1). By inputting detailed information into each design element, the software also tracks all details of a project, including quantities right down to the number of lights and plumbing fixtures (Deutsch, 2011; Eastman et al, 2011; Kymmell, 2008). BIM allows architects, designers, engineers, manufacturers, GIS experts, developers & contractors to work in collaboration. By working from the same 3D building information models, projects can be designed, constructed and managed with far more efficiency and accuracy. Organizations that adopt BIM can benefit from its streamlined approach, in which data is shared in a collaborative environment. So, BIM is actually a digital representation of the building process to facilitate exchange and interoperability of coordinated and consistent information in digital format. Erroneously sometimes the term is used to refer merely to the use of software platforms such as Autocad MEP (modeling mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems) or ArchiCAD and Revit (modeling architecture and structural systems). For a list of available BIM software see BIM Software, 2012. Using this software alone, however, does not mean that a BIM is in place. BIM is a strategy for the model development while software is the tool to help create and manage this model (Pantouvakis, 2010).
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Figure 1: From analog, isolated & 2D to digital, collaborative & intelligent 3D models
Also, BIM expectations vary between construction professionals from an enhanced CAD system for design disciplines to a document management system for non-design practitioners (Singh et al., 2011). BIM awareness is increasing fast in recent years by a rate of about 50% per year in the US and the UK following client demand. NBS performed a survey in November 2011 in the UK to track peoples attitudes towards BIM (NBS, 2012). There were around 1,000 respondents from different disciplines with the architects, QS, structural engineers, civil engineers and contractors forming the larger group. It was found that although 35% of the respondents are not even using CAD, 77% of them thought that BIM is the future of project information. Many have taken a more speculative look at BIM future citing that current BIM models are not fully automated (except for specific projects). Fully integrated BIM requires detailed and accurate inputs from all the project team members. The modeling process is not straightforward; it needs intensive process integration (people, technology, experience & skills) to achieve a full integration. This indicates that BIM need a lot of up-front work and investment. In this context, the construction professionals (QS, PM and others) have a new role to play and to contribute their new responsibilities and skills. But what are the risks and legal implications?
3. BIM IN CONTEXT: RISKS & LEGAL IMPLICATIONS

Building Information Modeling (BIM) may reduce in a very tangible and visible way some of the perennial risks of construction that have historically plagued many an owner most obviously the problem of uncoordinated drawings that contain conflicts and clashes between different building systems.
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At the same time BIM creates new and intangible risks or disputes among the parties to the construction process (Fig. 2). This stems from the fact that BIM is a model created for the project openly and in a shared way among all those involved, and each party can make contributions, amendments and corrections. The existing construction contractual relationships are not appropriate for regulating such a multi-party, collaborative kind of relationship. Instead, they are very heavily biased in favor of legal rules that are designed to identify a single party responsible when things go wrong.
Figure 2: A taxonomy of legal issues with BIM (Olatunji & Sher, 2010)
In concept, such a multi-party agreement could fashion a collaborative environment in which the benefits of BIM can harvested to their fullest. Agreements in the construction industry
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are traditionally two-party contracts owner-contractor, owner-designer, contractorsubcontractor, and so forth. Getting everyone involved to sign onto one agreement, even one that only deals with BIM-related issues is a significant departure from normal. Moreover, in this still relatively early stage of BIMs development, a clear concept of just what those collaborative rules should be is not obvious. Setting out the legal issues in the adoption of BIM will ensure that the industry can collaborate without the worry of adverse legal consequences. The confusion about the precise legal effect of adopting BIM stems from the manner it may be used in practice. For instance, BIM could be used internally for a project, where members of the same firm/consortium work together; this would not require changes to contract and simple common standards would suffice. However for BIM involving the collaboration of consultants, fabrication modelers, specialist manufacturers, contractors, sub contractors and facility mangers the construction contracts in use at present would require amendment to cover the risks and legal issues that may arise. The discussion of the issues below is by no means exhaustive; It demonstrates though the practical concerns and difficulties in BIM adoption and wider use.
3.1. BIM Contractual provisions BIM is not currently mentioned in any industry standard form contract or appointment. The UK Governments BIM Working Group believes it will be necessary to produce standard BIM clauses to allow BIM-specific issues to be addressed in construction contracts and consultant appointments. Such protocols are likely to include (amongst other things) details of the modelling software being used, the process to be followed by designers when amending the model and the standards to be adhered to when working with the model. In order to take into account the substantial nature of the changes that the full adoption of BIM will bring, it is better to draft new form of contracts to cover the various relationships affected by the BIM working method. An alternative thesis would be to incorporate legal issues in a BIM contract which would be a set of amendments to the main contract to make them suitable for BIM. The amendments could then be incorporated into the various agreements used for the project, ensuring that there is a similar set of BIM related rights and obligations flowing through the different contracts. This allows parties to retain the contracts they are accustomed to while adopting BIM. This seems the better approach, and has wide support (BIM Working Party, 2011). With this approach, possible clashes between the principal contract and the BIM amendments should be considered, possibly giving priority to the BIM provisions over other contract documents. Additionally, the extent of contractual issues that should be covered in the BIM legal amendment, i.e. waivers, indemnities, liability for contribution etc., makes it appropriate to recommend a stand-alone amendment.
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The other legal issue is the number of models to be created, their relationship, and the relationship between the model(s) and 2D drawings. Where multiple models are specified by the BIM amendment, the parties should indicate which model takes priority in the event of conflict in the information contained in each of the models. The parties would need to agree on the content and format of each model and the required standards to be employed; these may be set out in a BIM execution plan that would form part of the contract documents. Standards may also be based on national or international standards, e.g. BS 1192:2007. It is also important to define the position of 2D drawings which will be required for obtaining building permits and the level of information/reliance to be placed on them, this will be important especially in terms of the level of detail in a project. Finally, the situation where the BIM process increases costs and time durations should be accounted for. It is important that the parties allocate the responsibility of which party would bear the risk for delays and/or costs arising from errors in the transmission and use of information during the BIM process. While such errors will hopefully be the exception rather than the norm, it is important that provisions are made for such eventualities. These costs and time issues lie within the parameters of ownership of the BIM process. The party 'owning' the process would be the one to determine the criteria for extension of time due to BIM errors and the process for extra payment where appropriate. The owner's liability for non-technology related errors is reduced by the liability of each participant for the error in contributions made by them. Possibly, the owner would be the appropriate party to bear the residual risks connected with the BIM process. Some procurement methods may establish the main contractor as the owner of the process (i.e. design and build contracts) with the costs built into the tender. The parties would need to make a decision on the appropriate party based on the circumstances of their project. One suggestion has been to create a 'BIM Contingency Fund', which draws contribution in defined proportion from all participants. The project participants could then apply to the fund to cover unforeseeable costs that may arise during the BIM process. This would require clear guidelines to work properly.
3.2 BIM responsibilities On projects involving full 3D BIM, where a number of different parties are contributing to the model, it is likely that a lead consultant will need to be engaged to take on the role of BIM Coordinator. The BIM Coordinator, who would probably be appointed by the Employer on traditional projects and by the Main Contractor on design and build projects, would be responsible for overseeing the production, use and alteration of the model. The need to develop the role of a BIM Coordinator over the coming years may result in the production of specific standard form appointments which reflect the particular requirements of this unique role. The BIM Coordinator would be required among other things to implement the parties' agreement on model access, security, transmission, archiving, transmitting etc. An important aspect of delineating this role is to identify the issues the parties must agree which are to be
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coordinated by the BIM Coordinator, i.e. model access, scope of services, software matrix etc. Other legal issues include: how is the BIM Coordinator replaced, and who bears the costs, if any, arising from this role. The roles of other parties and stakeholders in the BIM process and their respective liabilities should also be clearly outlined. Whether the same or different people occupy these roles, the relationship between BIM Coordinator and an Architect /Project Manager and other team members should be defined especially since the BIM Coordinator may be replaced during the course of the project. To avoid conflict, it is recommended that the role be defined in such a manner as to give the holder exclusive responsibility and power to issue binding instructions on BIM related issues. With reference to liabilities of other parties it is important to limit them to a scope consistent with their fees and insurable rights without eroding the responsibility for inaccurate contributions. It is also important to ensure that the parties take out the appropriate insurance to cover their engagement in the BIM process. Where a project wide insurance is available this should be adopted at a greater level in relation to BIM projects. Where such cover is not available, parties should consider obtaining traditional coverage to protect against the liability for errors or omissions in their contributions to the model.
3.3. Design issues On projects where fully collaborative BIM is used, all parties with design responsibility should work together to produce one model of the building. If the building turns out to be defective due to a design fault, the collaborative nature of BIM may make it more difficult to identify the party who was responsible for the design of that aspect of the building. As a result, it is likely that design responsibility amongst members of the design team will need to be more clearly defined in contracts. It may also be necessary for contracts to state that collaboration with others does not affect the individual responsibilities of each designer. Traditionally, project designers (architects and engineers) have managed the risks of reliance by disallowing reliance by parties other than their direct client and creating caveats supported by the law, limiting their liability to application of the relevant standard of professional care and due diligence. The BIM process would give direct access to the model to a variety of parties, who would take decisions and allocate resources based on the information contained in it. This potentially creates new classes of possible liability. To manage this risk, it is recommended that the BIM contract includes a clause where all project participants' waive the rights to consequential damages and limit liability to direct losses connected with the project. It is also critical to define who has responsibility to ensure the quality of contributions to the model or models, as well as the level of reliance to be placed on such contributions. This is
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particularly important where the model contains intelligent elements that may change on account of information derived from other contributors. The BIM Coordinator, as part of its extensive responsibilities, should ensure that the specified level of detail required is met before addition of an element to the model; He/she should also ensure that parties are working with the most up-to-date version of the BIM information set.
3.4. Software issues There are various different types of modeling software on the market. In cases where each member of the design team has prepared their design using their own software and the different designs are fed into a single electronic model, it is unclear whether different software programmes will work together effectively. This may mean that clashes and design flaws are not detected, leading to errors in the model and defects in the building. It is not clear who would be responsible for such problems. Responsibility could potentially lie with the software provider themselves, the party using the software or even the BIM Coordinator responsible for managing the model. To avoid this problem, it may be necessary to ensure that the same standard of software is used by all parties involved in the project, although this may have significant financial implications. The technology on which BIM is based may create peculiar liability issues. Software manufacturers are protected by blanket limitation of liability clauses that makes it inappropriate to transfer the risk of BIM errors caused by the software to the manufacturers. This risk should be dealt with contractually and should be borne by the party who takes responsibility for the BIM process. For software and technology related issues the parties should map out carefully the liability between consultants who chose these technologies and have expertise on them, and the owner of the BIM process or the owner of the project. The aim should be for the consultants to bear the risks for errors in the choice of technology that could have been avoided had proper care and diligence been applied.
3.5. Reciprocal services Imagine that an architect inputs some data into the model incorrectly and this affects the accuracy of the model. When the error is discovered, a sub-contractor, who also has design responsibility, incurs substantial costs in re-designing his aspect of the model to compensate for the error. Would the sub-contractor be able to recover his losses directly from the architect who was responsible for the error? Assuming that the architect and the sub-contractor have no contractual relationship (which is usually the case), the answer is no. Parties who are not in contract with one another cannot usually recover financial loss due to the actions or omissions of the other party.
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However, the nature of BIM means that parties who would not previously have had any relationship will now rely on each others expertise. To reduce the risks of being unable to recover financial loss in such circumstances, it may be that collateral warranties become more widespread and are more frequently provided in favor of parties who would not traditionally request them.
3.6. Intellectual Property rights & confidentiality The BIM model will consist of contributions from various parties. To avoid liability for infringement of third party intellectual property rights, the protocol should ensure that all contributors warrant that they hold the intellectual property rights over the contributions they make and provide an indemnity to all other parties who may use such contribution in the event of a third party intellectual property dispute. The intellectual property provision should ensure that each contributor provides a nonexclusive license and sub-license where required to cover all members the BIM project team to allow access and use of each contribution for the purposes of the project. These licenses would be subject to the right to suspend or terminate. This would relate primarily to non-payment suspension or termination. When the license to a contribution that has been fed into BIM and used in various other aspects of the project is suspended should only affect licenses issued to a direct party and not to other members of the project team. There is no direct analogue of how this would work in practice. It however seems a useful provision to limit the chaotic effect the suspension of a license to a contribution may have if it extends to all project members who have used that contribution as an input in their own work. A related issue is that of joint authorship. This would arise where two parties make a distinctive addition to a contribution, but it is not possible to separate where one ends and the other begins. In this case perhaps provisions should be made in the contract for the Model Element Author (MEA) who will bear responsibility for the content and level of detail in that element of the model. Alternatively, a provision should be made that no action from another project contributor would deprive an original contributor of their intellectual property right or create a joint authorship. Further, the extend of the liability of each part should be defined, possibly by recognizing the right of the original author to accept or reject any addition and be saved from any liability for errors where an addition is made without its consent. Where consent is obtained both joint authors would hold rights to the contribution as well as bear joint and separate liability for its errors. Confidentiality for the information shared during the BIM process could be guaranteed by a simple confidentiality and non-disclosure clause. Competitive data containing trade secrets should be held and accessed in a manner that does not compromise the interests of its owners. Contributors should be asked to identify such data at the point of incorporation and restrictive rules of access, copying and transmission should apply.
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At this stage, it is difficult to do much more than speculate about the legal implications of this new way of working. It will only be through practice and experience that the answers to these questions become clear.
4. CONCLUSIONS
One of the major problems with BIM is that traditional collaboration is operated through conventional models of procurement whereas BIM require adoption of new technologies, processes and contractual arrangements to gain major long-term advantage. The costs associated with this should not be overlooked as they may prove too high for an industry that works on low cost margins. A major restructuring of roles and processes is needed as well as a re-education programme for many (owner, contractor, engineer etc. At the moment this technological change is perceived to be costly, and there is concern that there are insufficient skilled workers to be able to use the technology effectively. The design team of most major projects is still operating only at the periphery of the technological revolution which could change the construction industry across the board. There is a strong need to reconsider the whole of the procurement process and, in particular, the processes of construction to establish what changes would be required to provide the most effective approach to collaborative design and manufacture to harness the new technological infrastructure which is emerging. The changes required include education (both University and professional training), the structure of the industry, and the need for collaborative working across geographical boundaries, the models which support the new processes, the methods of communication, and the limits to innovation for construction. There is a strong need to benchmark their progress against conventional approaches to demonstrate overall benefit but also to determine where the priorities for the revolutionary approach should lie.
REFERENCES
Barlish, K. and Sullivan, K., 2012, How to measure the benefits of BIM A case study approach, Automation in Construction, Vol. 24, pp. 149159. BIM Software, 2012, List of BIM Software and providers, http://www.cad-addict.com/2010/03/list-of-bimsoftware-providers.html (last accessed: June 2012) BIM Working Party, 2011, BIM: Management for value, cost & carbon improvement A report for the Government Construction Client Group, London, UK. British Standards Institution, 2010, Constructing the business case Building information modeling, BSI, Surrey, UK. Deutsch, R., 2011, BIM and Integrated Design Strategies for architectural practice, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New Jersey, USA.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Eastman, C., Teicholz, P., Sacks, R. and Liston, K., 2011, BIM Handbook A guide to Building Information Modeling for Owners, Managers, Designers, Engineers and Contractors, 2nd edition, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New Jersey, USA. Egan, J., 1998, Rethinking Construction, Report to Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, UK Government, http://www.asite.com/docs/rethinking_construction_report.pdf (last accessed June 2012). Kymmell, W., 2008, Building Information Modeling Planning and managing construction projects with 4D CAD and simulations, McGraw-Hill, USA. Latham, M., 1994, Constructing the Team: Report of the Government/Industry Review of Procurement and Contractual Arrangements in the UK Construction Industry. London: Department of the Environment. McGraw Hill Construction, 2009, The business value of BIM Getting Building Information Modeling to the Bottom Line. NBS, 2012, National BIM Report 2012, National BIM Library, RIBA, UK. Olatunji, O. A.; Sher, W. D., 2010, Legal implications of BIM: model ownership and other matters arising, CIB World Congress 2010 Proceedings, 1013 May, Salford Quays, UK . Pantouvakis, J.P., 2010, Collaborative Construction Information Management, Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 28, No. 12, pp. 1331 1333. Qiping Shen, G., Brandon, P. & Baldwin, A. (eds), 2009, Collaborative Construction Information Management, Taylor & Francis, London. Singh, V., Gu, N. and Wang, X., 2011, A theoretical framework of a BIM-based multi-disciplinary collaboration platform, Automation in Construction, Vol. 20, pp. 134144. Succar, B., 2009, Building information modelling framework: A research and delivery foundation for industry stakeholders, Automation in Construction, Vol. 18, pp. 357375.
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CASE-BASED REASONING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR ARCHITECTURAL AND ENGINEERING CONSULTANCY FIRMS
Lu Chang Peh SIM University, Singapore, lukepehlc@unisim.edu.sg Sui Pheng Low National University of Singapore, Singapore, bdglowsp@nus.edu.sg
Abstract Architectural and Engineering (A&E) firms encounter a myriad of challenges when they venture overseas but A&E professionals are design specialists whom may not be as savvy in devising business strategies and organizing their firms to operate effectively and efficiently. It is therefore suggested that a Case Based Reasoning Decision Support System (CBRDSS) could assist A&E firms to internalize environmental and business factors by drawing on accumulated knowledge and experiences to facilitate and improve decision-making when they export their services overseas. This paper also demonstrates how a CBRDSS prototype for the internationalizing A&E consultancy firms could be built, using information collected from fieldworks that involved interviewing Singapore-domiciled A&E firms, in the cities of Singapore, Johor Bahru, Kuala Lumpur, Penang, Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin. It is postulated that the CBRDSS could provide affordable solutions, comprehensive check-lists and easy-to-use tool-kits for A&E consultancy firms. Keywords: case-based reasoning, decision support system, architectural and engineering consultancy firms, strategies, organization
1. INTRODUCTION
The Lilliputian, cyclical domestic market in Singapore construction industry poses much uncertainty and limitations for many local construction-related firms. On the other hand, the global construction industry, especially in burgeoning emerging markets such as China, South-east Asia, India and the Middle-east, presents immerse potential and opportunities for Singapores transnational construction-related companies. Venturing out has thus been recognized as a key and strategic pillar for construction-related firms in the country. Like other types of firms in the industry, Singaporean A&E firms seek to spread their wings and create an external economy for themselves through the export of A&E consultancy services (Asad and Lee, 2007).
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A&E firms marching out on such an international endeavor would have to contemplate how to strategize and organize themselves to work efficiently and effectively to prevent a Waterloo in terms of the firms internationalization. This paper demonstrates how a CBRDSS prototype that would help Singapores A&E companies planning to venture overseas to decide on appropriate business strategies and organization.
CBR CBR is a branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and is broadly construed as the process of solving new problems based on the solutions of known facts in similar past problems, instead of relying on a generic logic. It enables users to define multiple case studies, questions and solutions, and to define the structure and behavior of each case base. The CBR-DSS enables users to retrieve, reuse, revise and retain solutions. The advantage of this system is that it uses observations from case studies. It is also flexible: it allows revisions and updates. The rationale of a CBR is that if relevant cases could be quickly identified by an automated system, they would provide a rich source of potentially useful information as it is unlikely that any person could memorize the large volume of information and lessons they contain. CBR could be less effective with complex tasks (Leake, 1996), and can be misled by common or coincidental similarities between cases, and thus fail to recognize important matches that could make the difference between case-selection and case-rejection (Wagman, 2003). Therefore, human judgment is still required to alleviate the risks of installing structural errors in the CBR build-up. This paper argues that the CBR could be a useful tool to support the decision-making processes of an internationalizing A&E firm. This solution offers the merits of both the efficiency of AI to extract information from a rich database and the discernment of human judgment.
CBRDSS for Internationalizing A&E firms Venturing overseas involves many difficulties. An internationalizing firm has to carefully devise appropriate business strategies and organizations to internalize the risks of internationalization (Barlett and Ghoshal, 1998). However, firms are likely to have bounded knowledge and rationality of the appropriate business strategies and organizations to implement when their firms intend to internationalize into markets abroad. This is especially so when the company is a newcomer to the overseas environment (Root, 1998). This problem is exacerbated for an A&E firm, because A&E professionals may not be the best managers due to their inclination to specialize and focus on design and technology. The internationalization of the firm has been described as a process consisting of a series of small steps, whereby firms gradually increase their international involvement (Johanson and
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Wiedersheim, 1975; Welch and Luostarinen, 1988). This evolutionary view of the internationalization process argues that companies acquire more control and put in more commitment to foreign markets insofar as they accumulate experience and knowledge and reduce the asymmetry in knowledge, resources, networks and markets (Blomstermo and Sharma, 2003). However, this may also mean not exploiting and missing out on opportunities due to uncertainty for the firm. This is where learning from the experience of other companies and foreign investors is imperative to help shorten the learning curve. The knowledge, expertise and experience garnered from the first-movers could provide invaluable business intelligence to those following suit later. A&E consultancy firms are borne global firms. The export of A&E consultancy services could be done right from the birth of the firm, to very distant markets, and to enter multiple countries all at once, instead of having to develop in the traditional manner of getting through incremental stages with respect to their international activities (Rasmussen and Madsen, 2002). A significant barrier impeding the internationalization of A&E firms is the lack of strategic and organizational know-how to internationalize. Whereas large multinational firms may engage management consultants to analyze their organizations, recommend new strategic directions and business strategies, streamline their operations etc, A&E firms may have an aversion to approach professional consultancy services because i) the firm may not want to reveal too much of its businesses to external consultants; ii) such services are expensive and time-consuming; iii) A&E businesses are project-based and unique; and iv) management consultants who are not architecturally or engineering trained may not fully appreciate the concerns of an A&E business (Demkin, 2001). Therefore, it is postulated in this paper that the CBRDSS could be used by A&E firms as an affordable solution that provides comprehensive check-lists and easy-to-use tool-kits for A&E consultancy firms to make rational decisions on appropriate business strategies and organizational structures that may be adopted as part of the organizational-learning based model. This is in coherence with Cyert and Marchs (1963) submission that when confronted with a problem, organizations tend to start their search for solutions among alternatives that are close to solutions that have been tried before. Or else, organizations conform to institutional, coercive pressures. The CBR-DSS works on these principles, of institutional, coercive and mimetic isomorphism. In layman terms, organizations conform to regulations and standards, or emulate strategies or benchmarks set by successful companies.
2. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY

Judgment sampling, or purposive sampling, has been chosen for the study so that top Singaporean A&E firms were referred to. At the studys descriptive stage, six Singaporean A&E firms and their offices in Johor Bahru, Kuala Lumpur, Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin were chosen for questionnaire surveys, interviews and case studies. Data are construed with Content Analysis, and then channeled to develop the
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CBRDSS. At the studys validation stage, senior practitioners from A&E firms were invited to authenticate the CBRDSS. These practitioners were also asked to complete a feed-back survey pertaining to the CBRDSS. Their feedback was as follows: 1. Artificial Intelligence (AI) or Decision Support Systems (DSS) is useful for managerial decisions (e.g. decisions on internationalization); 2. CBRDSS is accurate in reflecting the actual business strategies and organizations implemented (or to be implemented) by the firms offices in overseas markets; and 3. CBRDSS is seen as a useful toolkit and/or checklist for firms to obtain preliminary guidance, advices and recommendations on business strategies and organizations for an internationalizing firm.
Analyzes of information The information collected from questionnaire and interviews was analyzed using statistical analysis and content analysis respectively. The main purpose of the statistical analysis is to investigate the correlation and causality between independent and dependent variables in the survey. The unobtrusive nature of content analysis makes it well suited for research studies in strategic management (Morris, 1996). The content analysis software chosen for the research is Qualitative Data Analysis (QDA) Miner, a mixed-model qualitative data analysis software package capable of coding, annotating, retrieving and analyzing collections of documents or images.
Engineering the CBRDSS From the content analysis, a more manageable list of 20 important determinants which would significantly affect business strategies and organizations was inputted into the CBRDSS. The characteristics of the firms were summarized, tabled, and then used to establish the relationships between the independent variables (determinants) and the dependent variables (strategic choices). The weights of factors were derived through a re-run of the Content Analysis, using co-occurrences between key factors (with their related phrases and words) to determine the levels of significances (and thus the weights) to be allocated. Figure 1 shows the CBRDSSs set of inquiries and set of recommendations.
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Figure 1: CBRDSSs Inputs and Outputs
Step-by-step Demonstration of Creating the CBRDSS prototype A step-by-step demonstration of how the CBRDSS works, complete with step-by-step screen-shots, by using a hypothesized example Firm X planning to venture into Beijing, China for the first time. The descriptions of Firm Xs and Beijing are provided below: 1. Complexity of organization required Medium; 2. Risk averseness of Firm X Medium; 3. Size of potential market in Beijing Large; 4. Firm Xs length of presence in Beijing Not in the market yet; 5. Firm Xs understanding of Beijing Medium; 6. Firm Xs international presence and experience Low; 7. Firm Xs embeddedness in home-market Medium; 8. Level of market uncertainty in Beijing Medium; 9. Firm X is a Singaporean A&E firm; 10. Firm X prefers to set up a functional office in Beijing; 11. Firm Xs main objective Market-seeking; 12. Industrial practice Singaporean A&E firms with offices in Beijing tend to be functional offices; 13. Firm X intends to place 10 staffs in Beijing; 14. The level of hostility in Beijing Medium; 15. Size of Firm X in Singapore More than 30; 16. Firm X is a private A&E firm; 17. Firm X plans to venture into Beijing, China; and 18. Firm X does not have any overseas offices. Figure 2 shows the screen-shot of the CBRDSS when Firm X starts to conduct a new CBRDSS search. Figure 3 shows Firm X putting in the description Beijing entry mode in the search criteria to initiate a case-find. A case-find locates, from the CBRDSSs database, a similar
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case and its recommendations. The short-boxes shown in Figure 4 facilitate the retrieval of similar cases and their recommendations for Firm Xs plan to venture into Beijing. In this case, the CBRDSS may retrieve cases such as Firm As entry mode in Beijing and Firm Bs entry strategy in Beijing for Firm Xs assessment. Figure 5 shows that the CBRDSS advises that Firm X should start by exporting to Beijing. Then, as Firm X understands more about the market in Beijing, establishes more contacts and clinches more projects, it may choose to expand its businesses in terms of service scope and organization size. Figure 6 and 7 show the administrators screenshots for the development of the CBRDSS of tagging associated answers to questions to be asked in the CBRDSS.
Figure 2: A new CBRDSS search (Note: Users screenshot)
Figure 3: Search criteria of the CBRDSS (Note: Users screenshot)
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Figure 4: Short boxes to facilitate case-find (Note: Users screenshot)
Figure 5: CBRDSS for Firm X (Note: Users screenshot)
Figure 6: Settings of possible answers to questions in the CBRDSS (Note: Administrators screenshot)
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Figure 7: Settings of associations in the CBRDSS (Note: Administrators screenshot)
3. CONCLUSIONS
It is noteworthy that even though many A&E firms overseas ventures have succeeded venturing overseas, many have also failed. Going overseas could involve complex issues with possibly many unforeseen risks and difficulties. This is especially so when the company is a newcomer to the overseas environment. This is where learning from the experience of other companies and foreign investors is imperative to help shorten the learning curve. The knowledge, expertise and experience garnered from the first-movers could provide invaluable business intelligence to those following suit later. At the same time, firms have bounded knowledge and rationality of the appropriate business strategies and organizations to implement, especially when their firms intend to internationalize into markets abroad. However, these firms may have an aversion to approach professional consultancy services because such services are expensive and timeconsuming. Furthermore, A&E professionals may not be the best managers because of their inclination to specialize and focus on design and technology. Therefore, it is postulated in this paper that a CBRDSS could be a useful check-list and tool-kit that provides internationalizing A&E firms with preliminary guidance, advices and recommendations on business strategies and organizations when they export their services overseas. As much as the management of a transnational firm should avoid implementing a one size-fits-all organization structure across its subsidiary offices, and that the internationalizing A&E firm ought to design its organization structure to complement the firms strategies which matches the environment with its own capabilities and competencies, the CBRDSS could be tailored to consider the type of industry, market location and nature of the firm, to provide affordable solutions, comprehensive check-lists and easy-to-use tool-kits for A&E consultancy firms. The recommendations by the CBRDSS essentially cover Strategy, Structure, System, Style of Leadership, Skills of Firm, Staffs, Shared Values and Supply-Chain, and it has been validated
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and ascertained to be a useful instrument to solve new problems based on known facts or solutions from precedent-problems. Furthermore, the CBRDSS is also able to retrieve, reuse, revise and retain cases for future references and support. This means that new decisions could reconcile with existing knowledge and case-bases, and adapt themselves to fill gaps in the database for storage and future usage.
REFERENCES
Asad. L. and Lee, P.O. (2008). Introduction. In Asad. L. and Lee, P.O. (Eds.), Regional Outlook Southeast Asia 20072008. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Barlett, C.A. and Ghoshal, S. (1998). Managing Across Borders: The Transnational Solution 2nd Edition. Harvard Business School Press. Blomstermo, A. and Sharma, D.D. (2003). Learning in the Internationalization Process of Firms. Cyert, R. and March, J. (1963). A Behavioural Theory of the Firm. Prentice-Hall. Demkin, J.A. (2001). The architects handbook of professional practice. American Institute of Architects. Johanson, J. and Wiedersheim. P. F. (1975). The internationalisation of the firm Four Swedish cases. Journal of Management Studies, Vol. 12 , October, pp. 305322. Leake, D.B. (1996). CBR in Context: The Present and Future. In Leake, D.B. (Ed.), Case-Based Reasoning Experiences, Lessons & Future Directions. AAAI Press/ MIT Press, pp. 3 30. Morris, E. (1996). Computerized content analysis in management research: A demonstration of advantages and limitations. Journal of Management, Vol. 20, pp. 903931. Rasmussen, E.S. and Madsen, T.K. (2002). The Borne Global Concept. Paper proposed to be presented in the 28th EIBA Conference 2002, in the special session SME internationalization and born globals different European views and evidence. Root, F. R. (1998). Entry Strategies for International Markets Revised Edition. Jossey- Bass. Wagman, M. (2003). Reasoning processes in humans and computers Theory and research in psychology and artificial intelligence. Praeger Publishers. Welch, L. S. and Luostarinen, R. (1988). Internationalization: Evolution of a Concept, Journal of General Management, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 3455.
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INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION, WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE PROJECTS FINANCED BY E.U. IN ROMANIA FOR 2007 2014 AND PERSPECTIVE FOR 2020
Prof. Dr. Nicolae Postvaru Technical University of Civil Engineering Construction Management dept.-investment consultant, president of Romanian Association of Cost Engineers Bucharest, Romania, nicolae.postavaru@gmail.com Eng. Radwan Aktaa PhD student at the Technical University of Civil Engineering, Bucharest, Romania Dr. Cristina V.Icociu Polytechnic University lecturer, investment law consultant, Bucharest, Romania, cvicociu@gmail.com
Abstract Between 2007 and 2013 the total amount invested by European Community and by the Romanian Government will be of 30 billion Euros, which is a representative figure. If at this we add the fact that the development rate of Romania is about 2 % per year, that the found attract up 2011 were almost less 5% and that have remained another 3 years for this first phase of post-adhesion, I think that the subject will be interesting for the auditorium in the perspective of 2020 like a possible market and special for construction which receive minim 70 % of the budget. The paper shows the way in which the projects with European financing are approached in Romania, and in the same time are presented the goals and objectives of the projects mentioned above. The authors, as consultant and partner for these found, shares the information that they have, producing a bridge-head for the support of those who want to be involved in these projects. The paper presents all the projects unrolled and has as purpose the allurements of those which are interested by those projects but have no access to information about them. The paper is addressed to the project managers which have a team and experts and are searching for ideas and finances. Keywords: EU funds, infrastructure, legislation, management, methods.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Commune experience, research, the values are good, but we still know each other very little. We need experience, know-how and people, and thats way we were satisfied by the fact that the article was accepted and we will be able to talk about the needs of an East European country who wants a fast development. This article is written because we thought that the European founds allocated to Romania represents a good opportunity for investors and consultants to extend their activities and profit. Romania became member of the European Community on 1st January 2007. Due its new status, Romania received founds from the European Community in order to develop more interesting projects in different domains in the next 25 years. This is an invitation to participate as consultants or construction firms at the projects co-financed by the European Community during the investment program 20142020
2. A GENERAL VIEW WE SPEAK ABOUT EU FOUNDS AND PROJECTS:

All our projects are included in the EU strategy. For 200720132020 the E.U. policy has 3 objectives: I. Convergence objective: To speed up the economic convergence of the less-developed regions, by investing in human and physical capital. II. Regional Competitiveness and Employment objective: To strengthen regional economic competitiveness and attractiveness, and to help workers and companies adapt to change and create new jobs. III. Territorial cooperation objective: To strengthen cooperation at three levels: crossborder, trans-national zones, networks for cooperation. Provided by: a) European regional development fund (ERDF) The ERDF aims to strengthen economic and social cohesion in the European Union by correcting imbalances between its regions. In short, the ERDF finances: direct aid to investments in companies (in particular SMEs) to create sustainable jobs; infrastructures linked notably to research and innovation, telecommunications, environment, energy and transport; financial instruments (capital risk funds, local development funds, etc.) to support regional and local development and to foster cooperation between towns and regions; technical assistance measures.
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b) European Social Fund (ESF) The ESF sets out to improve employment and job opportunities in the European Union. It intervenes in the framework of the Convergence and Regional Competitiveness and Employment objectives. The ESF supports actions in Member States in the following areas: adapting workers and enterprises: lifelong learning schemes, designing and spreading innovative working organizations; access to employment for job seekers, the unemployed, women and migrants; social integration of disadvantaged people and combating discrimination in the job market; strengthening human capital by reforming education systems and setting up a network of teaching establishments. c) Cohesion Fund (CF) The Cohesion Fund is aimed at Member States whose Gross National Income (GNI) per inhabitant is less than 90% of the Community average. It serves to reduce their economic and social shortfall, as well as to stabilize their economy. It supports actions in the framework of the Convergence objective. It is now subject to the same rules of programming, management and monitoring as the ESF and the ERDF. For the 20072013 period the Cohesion Fund concerns Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. The Cohesion Fund finances activities under the following categories: transEuropean transport networks, notably priority projects of European interest as identified by the Union; environment; here, Cohesion Fund can also support projects related to energy or transport, as long as they clearly present a benefit to the environment: energy efficiency, use of renewable energy, developing rail transport, supporting intermodality, strengthening public transport, etc. The financial assistance of the Cohesion Fund can be suspended by a Council decision (taken by qualified majority) if a Member State shows excessive public deficit and if it has not resolved the situation or has not taken the appropriate action to do so. For 2020 this became a critical path. d) European Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee Fund (EAGGF) Has two sections:
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i. Guidance: financing the measurements of rural development which contributes to the setting of the priority objective: development and structural adaptation of the regions with a slow progress. ii. Guarantee: contributory to the achievement of the objective regarding the economic and social conversion. e) European Fisheries Fund (EFF) In Romania EFF provides the necessary financial support for the reorganization and the development of the fisherman activity.
3. LOCAL PROJECTS
Lets follow a succinct and clear project management type of approach for what we have now in place:
3.1. Title of the project: National Development Plan 200720132020
3.2. Purpose: a) Increasing Economic Competitiveness And Developing A Knowledge Based Economy b) Development And Modernization Of Transport Infrastructure c) Protection And Improvement Of Environment Quality d) Human Resources Development, Promoting Employment And Social Inclusion And Strengthening The Administrative Capacity e) Development Of Rural Economy And Increasing Productivity In The Agricultural Sector f) Diminishing The Development Disparities Between The Country Regions For 20142020 we have the same scopes.
3.3. Objectives: The major projects and programs are for: a) The Development Of The Infrastructure At European Standards 60% b) The Improving Of The Romanian Economic Competitiveness On Long Term 15% c) The Development And A More Efficient Applicability Of The Romanian Human Resources 20%
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d) The Consolidation of an Efficient Administrative Ability 5%. e) No major changes in 20142020, the percent for infrastructure is higher.
3.4. Budget: The total value is about 19.7 billion Euros covert by: 19.2 billion Euros from EU founds and 0.5 billion Euros for territorial cooperation objective from the European Funds and about 3.1 billion Euros form Government contribution. The budget for 2020 looks to be the same, not increasing.
3.5. Quality: European Standards: ISO 9001; ISO 14000; ISO 18000.
3.6. Seven: national sectorial projects (each with its priorities) as follows:
E.U Sectorial Operational me 1. Sectorial Operational me Increase Of Economic Competitiveness SME, Big Companies, IT Industry, energy 2. Sectorial Operational me Transport highway, roads, ports, airports, railways 3. Sectorial Operational me Environment water, waste, swege,CO2,environment protection, 4. Sectorial Operational me Human Resources Development universities, teachers trainings, adult education, unemployment 5. Regional Operational me local administration, tourism, site rehabilitation 6. Sectorial Operational me Administrative Capacity Development local management and trainings 7. Operational Program Technical Assistance financial management of the 6 TOTAL VALUE 2.554,2 Co-financing Public 141,6 National Private 1.248,6 Total 3.944,4
4.566,0 4.512,5 3.476,1
1.093,5 1.076,0 506,3
38,3
5.697,8 5.588,5
164,2
4.146,6
3.726,0 208,0
618,1 36,7
95,8 0
4.439,9 244,7
170,2 19.213,0
30,1 3.505,3
0 1.546,9
200,3 24.262,2
Table 1: Preliminary financing 20072013 (million Euros, current prices)
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Figure 1: Preliminary financing percentage 20072013
3.7. Co-finance 19.7 billion Euros are coming from the European Community. European Union: 27 states, 475 million habitations.
3.8. The schedule of the programs a) Duration phase 1: 20072013; phase 2: 2014 2020 b) Last payment phase 1; July 2015 Total time for EU projects; minimum 25 years
3.9. Risks Here occur the problems; in the first 5 years we absorb about 5% of the total funds and pay contracts are for about 15% infrastructure less 1% payments constructions all: civil, industry, special less than 3 % payments we are the last country in EU for using the European founds
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Why? an unprofessional approach; i)state personal involve in management of the funds; ii)small salaries for civil servants; iii)procurement legislation not fair; iv)legislation not clear; v)too many changes during implementation; vi)bad management to central level; vii)lack of use of the professional knowledge for Project Management; viii)poor evaluations and criteria; ix) no expertise in the market for such projects; x) poor efficiency asked from applicants. for construction sector; i) procurement not enough adapted for public funds; ii) poor local contracts, not use FIDIC like general frame; iii) cost method, design, technologies, mentalities from old times; iv) not enough local power of the sector for such big and many projects, no joint venture; v) European companies lack from the market this is the message for them to come. we need an open minded top management to understand that this money are not possible to be spent only with local companies and some 5-6 big contractors, we need an open market for all. The construction remain to us is sure. Other EU programs are for agriculture fishing programs: about 10 billion Euros (from which fish 0.30 billions) without local co-finance: rural development, new farms, young farmers, new technologies. For 2014 we insist for the EU budget to be ruled by private consultancy companies together with banks, this new approach to bring efficiency in spending this money for the scope they are.
4. LOCAL DEVELOPMENT SCHEME

In Romania if we participate to an auction it is good to know the scheme of how appeared an investment, especially in infrastructure, to understand the process (figure 2) Why am I here? What people want? What they ask for? Why quality? Who is the supervisor? Who is the owner? With whom can I collaborate? Who establishes the standards? If I am from EU, what need I remember? What contracts to use? Have we consultants? Who can help? What is the role of authorities?
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Figure 2: Portfolio of projects
4.1. The content of the finance application and evaluation criteria; A. B. C. D. The documents have to fulfil: The administrative conditions of the applicant, The eligibility conditions of the applicant, The strategy conditions, Technical economic documents for the land and scope,
The beneficiaries have to prove the existence of: E. Feasibility studies F. Permits and licenses G. Proprieties documents and local wishes / decision
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4.2. Approval of finance: < 5 million euro needs national level approval; management authority=minister level > 5 million euro needs European Community level approval Signing of the finance contracts: beneficiary + management authority + implementation office
4.3. Contracts between the applicant of the finance application and consultants: local model or FIDIC (infrastructure).
4.4. Procurement conditions: National, a new version is expected in 2012, better adapted to EU norms. For the moment here is the dispute with the foreign companies which ask for more clear rules and transparency.
4.5. Audit of contracts: National and EU level (audit local, international, court of account, other).
5. ACTUAL SITUATION
5.1. Lets see the programs by activities, to understand the role and needs of contractors: 5.1.1. Sectorial Operational Program HUMAN RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT is managed by two ministries: of labour and of education and it is the best for this moment, containing: Priority Axis 1: Education and training in support for growth and development of knowledge based society; Axis 2: Linking lifelong learning and labour market; Axis 3: Increasing adaptability of workers and enterprises; Axis 4: Modernization of Public Employment Service; Axis 5: Promoting active employment measures; Axis 6: Promoting social inclusion; Axis 7: Technical Assistance. 5.1.2. Sectorial Operational Program INCREASE OF ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS is managed by the ministry of economy and contains: Priority axis 1: An innovative and eco-efficient productive System; axis 2: Research, technological development and innovation for Competitiveness; axis 3: ICT for private and
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public sectors; axis 4: Increasing energy efficiency and security of supply, in the context of combating climate change; axis 5: Technical assistance. 5.1.3. Sectorial Operational Program Transport is managed by the ministry of transport (here is a lot of to do for next 20 years) and contains: Priority axis 1: Modernization and development of TEN-T priority axes aiming at sustainable transport system integrated with EU transport networks; axis 2: Modernization and development of the national transport infrastructure outside the TEN-T priority axes aiming at sustainable national transport system; axis 3: Modernization of transport sector aiming at higher degree of environmental protection, human health and passenger safety; axis 4: Technical Assistance. 5.1.4. Sectorial Operational Program Environment manage by the ministry of environment, is the only acceptable for construction sector and contains: Priority Axis 1 Extension and modernization of water and wastewater systems; Axis 2 Development of integrated waste management systems and rehabilitation of historically contaminated sites; Axis 3 Reduction of pollution and mitigation of climate change by restructuring and renovating urban heating systems towards energy efficiency targets in the identified local environmental hotspots; Axis 4 Implementation of Adequate Management Systems for Nature Protection; Axis 5 Implementation of adequate infrastructure of natural risk prevention in most vulnerable areas; Axis 6 Technical Assistance. 5.1.5. Sectorial Operational Program Administrative Capacity Development managed by ministry of administration, containing: Priority Axis 1: Structural and process improvements of the public policy management cycle; Axis 2: Improved quality and efficiency of the delivery of public services on a decentralized basis; Axis 3: Technical Assistance. 5.1.6. Regional Operational Program managed by ministry of development, it works good and contains: Priority Axis 1: Support to sustainable development of urban growth poles; Priority Axis 2: Improvement of regional and local transport infrastructure; Priority Axis 3: Improvement of social infrastructure; Priority Axis 4: Strengthening the regional and local business environment; Priority Axis 5: Sustainable development and promotion of tourism; Priority Axis 6: Technical assistance 5.1.7. Operational Program Technical Assistance belongs to ministry of finance Priority Axis 1: Support to the implementation of Structural Instruments and coordination of Programs; Axis 2: Further development and support for the functioning of the Single Management Information System; Axis 3: Dissemination of information and promotion of Structural Instruments
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5.1.8. Funds for Agriculture and Rural Development: 13.3 billion Euro a lot of money, and contains: 5.1.8.1. National Strategic Plan for Fisheries Priority Axis: Adjusting the community fishing fleet; Axis 2: Aquaculture, inland fishing, processing and marketing of fishing and aquaculture products; Axis 3: Collective actions; Priority Axis 4: Sustainable development of the fishing areas. 5.1.8.2. National Rural Development Program Priority Axis 1: Improving the competitiveness of agricultural and forestry sector; Axis 2: Improving the environment and the countryside; Axis 3 The quality of life in rural areas and the diversification of the rural economy; Axis 4: LEADER. We wanted to mention this portfolio because of one observation: the money is managed by the authorities, and this was a bad sign and example. From 2014 it will be possible to be ruled by some private banks and companies this will change the situation, bring better results and will make these programs more attractive.
5.2. Projects in progress: Highway-poor situation 25 %contracted modernization of the railway-poor situation, design faze only water network, sewage system, purge system50 %contracted environment protection site decontamination 30 % contracted
5.3. Needs on medium and long term: i) consultants ii) specialized designers iii) project managers iv) cost engineering v) builders/contractors vi) equipments vii) IT & soft viii)various services ix) know-how x) technology
5.4. Now in place; Construction Companies working in Romania are from: USA, Canada, Germany, Austria, Italy, Greece, Spain, Holland, Belgium, England, France, Poland, Hungary (possibly Asia and Russia) But we need much more big companies than they exist in the market special for infrastructure
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5.5. Professional association connected: AMCOR The Romanian Association of Management Consultants AGIR General Association of Engineers in Romania Designers association, Structural engineers association, Highway engineers association, etc. with poor role in the investment process, special in the decision making. PMR: office@pm.org.ro-for project management IPMA RACE: represents AACE/ICEC and the authors This was an image of this found in Romania, present and future, Is not a pink situation but we hope to become better with your help. In this years of crises we remain with about 20 billion unused, no clear objectives construction done, not a good experience of EU founds. We would like to change the situation with your participation, to be more transparent to the market and to succeed in 2010 to say: we are 100% done and you thank you.
REFERENCES
National Plan for Development 20072013 Guides for EU programmes in Romania www.ciperomania.org Msuri n favoarea ntreprinderilor mici i mijlocii www.finantare.ro Faciliti acordate ntreprinderilor mici i mijlocii www.imm-uri.ro ntreprinderi mici i mijlocii www.infoeuropa.ro ntreprinderi mici i mijlocii n Uniunea European www.statistici.ro; www.fonduri-structurale .ro
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CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES INVESTMENT ECONOMICAL EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS

Nicolae Postvaru Technical University of Civil Engineering Construction Management dept.investment consultant, president of Romanian Association of Cost Engineers, Bucharest, Romania, nicolae.postavaru@gmail.com Ills Klmn PhD student at the Technical University of Civil Engineering, CEO at Izorep S.A., Bucharest, Romania
Abstract The relationship between construction companies development and especially the infrastructure and building investment is well known. The authors want to present some theoretical aspects of investments and efficiency connected with the growth of the companies turnover. Because one of the authors is a business man in this sector of constructions, we present a case study, made on his company for the last years, regarding the development of the business during this period and special about the risks in the crises time. Finally, we present some recommendations for the private sector and the companys management on how to keep the business in the next period of time, measures and methods. Keywords: analysis, development, efficiency, investments, management.
1. INTRODUCTION
In our belief, for the constructions area everything is a technological process: the investment process of private developers, or of the state. We divided this process in 10 steps: 1. The Idea investment request 2. The Opportunity the economic capacity to invest 3. The Decision to make an investment 4. The Plan the investment schedule
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5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
The Risk assignation of the resources The implementation of the objectives, The Reception of the investment objective The operationality, The maintenance The removal change of use.
For a company, development through investments represents: At first, a long-term growth (and even survival) support Second, consumption of some of the materials, financial and human resources of the company. Third, the investment decision involves the companys resources for a medium/long term Fourth, the investment decision is influenced by the regards of the environment towards the company Fifth, the investment decision complexity takes account of the amplitude of the informational feed for marketing, financial and human resources For a business owner, the investment decision means reaching three dimensions: investment managerial strategy economical strategy Their description in figure 1:
Figure 1: Management decisions three dimensions
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More practical, the steps of the investment decision are treated in a tri-dimensional manner. For any project there is a need to know the total profit, productivity and capitalisation, at national economy levels, this being an economical analyse of the investment project. During an analysis it is important: 1. Usage of the reference costs, or shadow costs 2. When deciding the income and spending, the taxes, subsidies, and any other transfer of budget are not taken into consideration 3. Taking into consideration of some secondary costs and benefits The indicators used in the economical analysis tend to reveal the economical efficiency of an project. RVC= VAV/VAC
2. THE SYSTEM OF CAPITALISATION INSTALMENT

The instalment system is an efficient instrument used in capitalisation analysis of a companys activity. The instalments are determined as a proportion either between an effect indicator (result) and an effort effect (resource), or between two effort indicators, and it is expressed in percents. We have to emphasise an important limit reached by its usage,: the impossibility of an absolute activity dimension (turnover, actives, etc). Therefore, this analysis must be made in conjunction with the analysis based on the absolute dimensions of the indicators taken into consideration.
2.1. Economical capitalisation instalment ECI is determined as a proportion between the net profit and the total value of the value of the used assets. Ca be analysed dynamically, or compared to the values of the indicator when it comes to competitor companies (with the same activity domain)
ECI = Net profit 100 total assets
By using the total assets as a denominator, this instalment shows the efficiency of using the total available capital, or in other words, without taking into consideration the financing structure. This instalment is mostly important for the internal users of the information (company management).
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2.2. Financial capitalisation instalment FCI is determined as a proportion between the net profit and the value of the capital owned by the company. Ca be analysed dynamically, or compared to the values of the indicator when it comes to competitor companies (with the same activity domain)
FCI = Net profit 100 owned capital
It expresses the efficiency of using the owned resources, and it is the basis for the determination of the pay instalments of the capital yielded by the stockholders.
2.3. Shareholders capitalisation instalment 2.3.1. Profit per share instalment

PSI = Net profit 100 number of stock holdings
Considering that the dividends are an allocation of the net profit, this indicator shows the maximum value of the payments for the stockholder capital. 2.3.2. Dividend per share instalment
DSI = total divident funds 100 number of stock holdings
This indicator shows the net earnings of the companys stockholders. 2.3.3. Price per profit per share instalment
PPSI = stock exchange value 100 Net profit per stock holding
This indicator shows how fast can be the investment in stock holdings recuperated, if all the net profit of the company would be paid to the stockholders as dividends. The smaller the indicator is, the better the companys state is.
2.4. Commercial capitalisation instalment CCI is determined as a proportion between the total company sales profit and the sold value. This indicator shows the commercial efficiency of the company.
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CCI =
Sales profit 100 turnover
This instalment analysis can also consider 3 factors: The sales structure (goods or services) Unit price of the products Selling price
2.5. The DuPont instalment analysis
Uses for the capitalisation instalments analysis the decomposition of the financial capitalisation instalment:
FCI = Net profit Net profit total assets 100 = 100 owned capital total assets owned capital
In other words, the financial capitalisation instalment is the product of the economical capitalisation instalment and the financial autonomy (solvency indicator) The economical capitalisation instalment can be decomposed as follows:
ECI = Net profit Net profit sales 100 = 100 total assets sales total assets
Therefore, the economical capitalisation instalment is the effect of the margin instalment and the rotation of the total assets (stock indicator). Uncertainty and the risk associated to the investment process are the sum of the operations or activities that are made during a long period of time. Lets point out the difference: RISK: there is a known possibility for a specific state to occur Risk indicators: Level of indebtedness risk:
lent capital 100 engaged capital
Debt coverage indicator:

profit before payment of debts and profit tax debt exp enses
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Gross sales margin: Gross sales profit turnover Efficiency is the proportion between practical effort and the expenses made to obtain it
UNCERTAINTY: There is no known probability of occurrence.
Following, some methods of identifying risk in constructions activity
Figure2: Methods used to identify risks
From all the volume of information the investor uses, a central role is held by the technicaleconomical indicators and variables: 1) 2) 3) 4) The costs involved in the realisation of the investment project Anticipated advantages during the exploitation of the investment Characteristic time and material resources Economical and financial efficiency of the project
The advantage generator factor is the capital advanced capital and the project expenses. Generally, an investment in a company consists in expenses with machinery, IT, software, and personnel. To evaluate the economical efficiency of an investment project we use an indicators system that reveals how we spent the income, what it produces, when the costs will be recovered, etc. For what we want to point out, the investment is the production objective itself: constructions.
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3. INVESTMENT IN BUILDINGS AS A DEVELOPMENT FACTOR

We believe that this is valid only in constructions. All we stated above can be found the company business plan, in the figure 3. If the strategic plan forecasts the development through construction investments, then here we find together the both factors for construction industry development held in one hand: the managers, which is a CEO, business owner, and also a developer. In such situations the two can be mixed, but their profit sums up: the profit of the developer and the one of the implementer. The profit increases, the work volume is the same. Construction investment are the sum of all the expenses necessary for building a new building, or for upgrading an old one to normal functionality parameters, according to the objective and subjective requests of its users.
Figure 3: Company business plan steps
To talk of the two aspects of development altogether, we need to talk about project organisation, and of project management used as a general layout in the company. In this respect we have researched the usage of this managerial education in the Mures HarghitaCovasna area (the central area of the country). The research aims the identification of some improvement measures for competitiveness incensement, and its results are shown below:
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Figure 4: Allotment of the studied companies, by employee numbers
Figure 5: Company classification, by turnover
Figure 6: The proportion of the companies using project management
As we can see, most of the companies use these techniques. Based on our experience, we consider this approach on development to be mandatory applied through project management and profit centres for each project.
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Along with the crisis, in the countries that need investment but have insufficient funds we believe that this development method based on PPP contracts is an actual and valid solution. The payments are done in time, the profit is obtained in time, but it exists. The important thing is that investments are needed as the ones for infrastructure and the recipient is a solid institution. We have seen this successfully applied in real estates, but there is a market risk that the construction companies are not used with and these counts for losses, still, there was profit as well, so there was efficiency, and the company developed the domain and its activity. In this respect, there was a need for training in project management in some domains: finance and banks costs and calculation financial planning and cash-flow software logistics local communication contractual negotiation
This is how we created new managers for new times, and how they became businessmen out of engineers. This has also been a new step forward into individual personal development and a plus for the company development. These profit centre-projects can become small companies for the mother-company to use. In our opinion this is an institutional development method specific to the construction domain. In this investitional context, we believe that a major role belongs to the project manager, site manager and profit-centre leader. We have further analysed: the project manager responsibility. It consists in various activities such as the ones in the following figure:
Figure 7: Project managers responsibilities
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Figure 8: Companies allotment by project management stages
Here we see that there is a good proportion, this leading to a high own investment in development efficiency. We consider that the investment in the own company efficiency incensement through infrastructure/real-estate can be done using project management elements such as: using the Diagnosis and improvement MproPerf method measures for improving the company management in project management professionalization of the managers on all levels, and project-based reorganisation implementation of project management contracts elaboration of the internal procedures manual, for own project management strengthening and development of the personnel competence in projects, through professional training and improvement improvement of the information management in projects.
4. CONCLUSIONS
It is common knowledge that the companies that apply project management on a larger scale obtain better economical performance. The construction company as Investor has to take into consideration and exploit all the data, in order to obtain better results and a reliable project, superior to its own activity. Therefore, based on our experience, we can say that the maximum investment efficiency per construction cycle is obtained when the investor is the constructor itself, organised on projects. Our recommendation for the construction sector development is the developing of the Constructor Investor collocation, which can lead to a decrease in the market prices on one side, and to funding entailment along with the creation of one single economical, constructors level, efficiency centre.
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REFERENCES
Kaplan R.& Norton D. The Strategy-Focused organisation> How Balaced Scorcard Companies Thrive in the New Business Environment, Chapter Building Strategy Maps Ed.Harvard Business School Press, April 2005 Kaplan R.& Norton D. Translating strategy into action: The Balance Scorecard, Ed. Harvard Business School Press,1996 Mass J.N. The Relative Value Growth Harvard Business School Review,April 2005 Niculescu M. Diagnostic Global Strategic, Ed.Economica, 1997 Niven P. Balanced Scorecard Step-by-Step: Maximizing Performance and Maintaining Results. Ed.John Wiley & Sons, 2002 Postvaru N. Managementul Integrat i al Sistemelor Informaionale, Ed.Matrix 2001 Postvaru N. Managementul Integrat al Proiectelor Investiionale, Ed.Matrix 2006 Postavaru N. Managementul integrat pentru IMM Ed. Matrix 2011 Standardul ISO 9001:2000 Sisteme de Management al Calitii Cerine Verboncu I. Abordri Moderne in Managementul i Economia Organizaiei Vol.14, Ed.Economica 2003 Y.Allaire & Frirotu M. Managementul Strategic, Ed.Economica 2003 West, A., Planul de afaceri, Editura Teora, Bucureti, 2000; Zorlenan I., E. Burdu, Cprrescu, Gh.; Managementul organizaiei; Ed.Economic, Bucureti, 1998
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TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES FOR DECISION SUPPORT IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

Augustin Purnus, PhD, PMP, Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest, Spider Management Technologies, Romania, augustin.purnus@spiderproject.ro Victoria Shavyrina, PMP, Spider Project Team, Moscow, Russia, smt@spiderproject.ru
Abstract Successful projects require right decisions at the right moments. The large number of late and over budget construction projects is a result of the decisions taken before or during their implementation. One reason is the lack of tools able to gather and model the complex aspects of the construction projects. The paper presents a comprehensive approach to construction project management by the application of specific tools and techniques in taking the best decisions for the project's success. Success Driven Project Management is a proven methodology of project planning, performance analysis and project control widely used in large scale construction projects in Russia, Ukraine, Brazil and Romania which integrates scope, time, cost and risk management. The tools and techniques included in this methodology like Quantity Based Scheduling, Application of Corporate Norms, Conditional Scheduling, Skill Scheduling, Resource Critical Path Calculation, Trend Analysis, Risk Simulation and Analysis and Success Probability Trends are presented together with their application in real construction projects. Key words: Success Driven Project Management, Corporate Norms, Resource Constrained Management, Project Risk Management, Management by Trends
1. INTRODUCTION
A recent study conducted by The CIOB between December 2007 and January 2008 highlight the fact that despite the development of sophisticated tools and techniques, a large number of construction projects are delayed and over budget and the more complex the projects are, the less likely it is to be completed on time.
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A number of complex infrastructure construction projects developed in Romania in the last decade revealed the gap between desire and results. The lack of application of decision tools able to gather and model the complex aspects of the construction projects led to delays and over budget. One example is the construction of the Basarab Overpass in Bucharest, Romania, connecting two major boulevards part of Bucharest's inner city ring. The main viaduct measures 1450 meters 117 meters the arch bridge over the Dambovita river, 340 meters the cable-stayed bridge, from the Titulescu area, over the North Railway Station, with access ramps of 1250 m length. The commencement date was November 2006, with an estimated time of completion of 24 months and a budget of EUR 135 mil. The project ended on June 2011, with the final costs of EUR 240 mil., encountered a delay of 28 months and an over budget of EUR 105 mil. The construction of 1.25 kilometers long Baneasa road underpass built at Bucharest main exit to northern country was started on May 2008, with an estimated time of completion of 12 months and a budged of EUR 9.4 mil. Due to unforeseen events caused by the relocation of certain utilities, the project was finalized on November 2009 with a total costs of EUR 13.5 mil., encountered a delay of 6 months and an over budget of EUR 4.1 mil. The Pipera-Tunari overpass with a length of 170 m overpass above Railway BucharestPitesti was started on August 2007 for 12 months and a budget of EUR 6.22 mil. Due to several design mistakes, the project was finalized in November 2009 with 12 months delay, and the costs have increased to almost EUR 11.44 mil., nearly double the initially estimated amount. The paper presents applied advanced tools and techniques for decision support used in construction projects as they are implemented in Spider Project software.
2. SUCCESS DRIVEN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

As a result of the continuous growth of the challenges and the complexity of construction projects, new approaches able to model and support with tools and techniques for decisions such projects were developed. Success Driven Project Management is a proven methodology of project planning, performance analysis and project control that integrates scope, time, cost and risk management. It is useful for top management in forecasting the project execution and project team performance and by project managers for decision making. The aspects of the project: scope, time, human resources and equipments, materials, costs, financing, procurement, contracts, risks, portfolio, archives and communication need to be treated as being equal. Several tools and techniques are of particular importance within Success Driven Project Management methodology.
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2.1. Corporate Databases For the construction projects activity volume represent the objective mean of estimations and monitoring. The local, industrial or corporate standards or norms used in construction industry reflect the resource productivity, materials and costs per activity volume unit of measure. The corporate norms are managed by the Project Management Office and are mandatory for usage in the entire organization. Activities, resources and assignments belong to the same type if they share the same characteristics like unit costs, material consumptions per work volume unit, productivity, etc Using the corporate norms in project planning, scheduling and monitoring has many advantages. They allow us to develop easily realistic project models in the planning stage and trusted performance means in the execution stage.
Figure 1 Corporate Norms
2.2. Resource Productivity Resource productivity represents the volume units per hour. Together with the activity volume of work, it enables to calculate activity duration during the project schedule for the assigned number of resources and their productivity, and represent the foundation of the Quantity Based Scheduling.
2.3. Multiple Work Breakdown Structures In the traditional approach, a project can be organized in a single work breakdown structure (WBS), but using multiple WBS will allow us to analyze the project by many perspectives. Usual WBS takes into consideration results (as they are described in PMBoK), processes (where activities are grouped by the processes they are represented), responsibility (useful for project management) and others. A national road rehabilitation project may be organized in several WBS. One can be based on the nature of works grouped on sections.
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Figure 2 WBS based on the nature of works
Figure 3 WBS based on the sections
Other WBS can be based on the sections of the road. The use of multiple breakdown structures allows not only to obtain different project reports as seen from the different standpoints, but also to provide that the project model is truly comprehensive.
2.4. Resource Constrained Scheduling Traditional Critical Path Method works only in case of unlimited resource availability. Resource constrained schedules produced by different Project Management software are different. The software that calculates shortest resource constrained schedules may save a
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fortune to its users. That is why the most attention should be pay to resource-constrained schedule optimization. Most of the decisions are taken because of the financial constraints. For this reason, we need to be able to forecast not only the project costs, but also the incomes, and to analyze the effect of limited financial resources together with the effect of limited manpower, equipments and material supply.
Figure 4 Project Financial Aspects
Financing and supplies simulation is very important in commercial projects when project goals include profit. Activity floats are calculated using resource leveling not only on a forward pass but also on a backward pass.
2.5. Resource Critical Path The calculation of Resource Critical Path (RCP) to distinguish it by the Activity Critical Path is similar to the calculation of the traditional critical path with the exception that both early and late dates (and corresponding activity floats) are calculated during forward and backward resource (and material, and cost) leveling. In the following example let's consider that resource B is over allocated due to its assignment to Activity 2 and Activity 4. The project duration is 43 days and the Activity Critical Path is shown in the next figure.
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Figure 5 Activity Critical Path
If we consider one conventional resource constrained scheduling algorithm, Activity 4 is postponed after the end of Activity 2, leading to a duration of 63 days.
Figure 6 Critical Path considering conventional resource constrained scheduling algorithm
In case the Activity 2 is interrupted in order to allow Activity 4 to perform with the same resource B, the project duration will be dramatically reduced to 43 days.
Figure 7 Resource Critical Path
In such a situation all the activities regardless the links are resource critical and their floats calculated in this way are called resource floats. Traditional total float shows the period for which activity execution may be postponed if project resources are unlimited, while the activity resource float shows the period for which activity execution may be postponed within the current schedule with the set of resources available in this project. This technique permits to determine feasible resource constrained floats. True critical path should account for all schedule constraints including resource and financial limitations.
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2.6. Risk Simulation The experience gained in project planning shows that the probability of successful implementation of deterministic project schedules and budgets is very low. Therefore project planning technology should always include risk simulation to produce reliable results. Risk simulation can be accomplished using either Monte Carlo method which is impossible to be use for large projects, or based on three scenarios approach. The identified risk events are estimated to reflect their effects taking into consideration resource usage or productivity rates, work scope or volume, cost estimates, calendar or weather variation, including risk response plans in optimistic, most probable and pessimistic project scenarios. The calculated scenarios are used to rebuild the probability curves (for dates, costs, material requirements).
Figure 8 Probability Curve
The desired probability of meeting project (phase) finish dates, costs and resource requirements determines desired finish dates for the whole project and its phases, their desired costs, and other project parameters. After approval, these dates become target dates and the project execution is monitored using the probability of meeting them dates, costs, quantities called project success probability. This permits to create reasonable contingency reserves (time and cost buffers) and manage them through project execution.
2.7. Conditional Scheduling Usually, the activity network structure is based on a deterministic approach, meaning that the activity sequence is well known, basing on the technological, organizational and external constraints. There are many situations when, depending on its evolution, the project may have more than one way to be performed in the future. This can be modeled by a decision point basing on the fulfillment or not of a certain condition (time, cots or resources).
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In such cases a new type of activity can be used in the conditional scheduling, the Switch activity. If switch is On then some conditional links will be valid and other not valid. The branches that are not valid will not be performed. Let's consider that until a certain point we know the activities sequence. If this sequence of activities is finished until a moment, we want to continue the project with a specific sequence of activities (technological or organizational). If the activities preceding the switch activity will be finished later, the project may continue using another technology and therefore, another sequence of activities. In the following example the project consisted on three phases. Taking into consideration the finish dates of activities included in the phase 1, the project may continue basing the technology related to phase 2 or to phase 3.
Figure 9 Conditional Scheduling Initial situation
If the finish date of activity 2 is later than 05.03.2012 then the project will continue with phase 2. Otherwise, the project will continue with phase 3
Figure 10 Conditional Scheduling State of Switch Condition
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The switch type of activities is extremely useful in simulating risks and If Then conditions, filling a gap in project planning and scheduling and allowing us to include such decision actions very similar with the decision tree.
3. MANAGEMENT BY TRENDS
Most of the decisions are taken during the project execution. In this stage the project performance is measured against the baseline assessing if additional planning is needed and/or corrective action needs to be implemented. The main condition to be able to analyze the project performance and to take decision which will affect the future implementation is to keep all the project records in the project archive and to process them. This possibility enables to assess the progress in project execution for the last week, last month or since the beginning of the year, compared to the baseline, etc. The project archive provides the data for performance measurement techniques using computerized tools to assess the magnitude of any variance.
3.1. Trend Analysis Trend analysis consists in examining performance over time to see if it is improving or deteriorating. If the project is 5 days ahead of the baseline but one week ago it was 8 days and one month ago 20 days then some corrective action is needed. If the project is behind the schedule but the distance become smaller then project team improves project performance and interference is not necessary.
Figure 11 Trend Analysis
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If the project archive is in place, any project parameter may be analyzed by trends and the effect of decisions will be seen at the next date the project is update.
3.2. Earned Value Analysis Earned Value Analysis is another method that is used for estimating project performance, by comparing work performed to the work budgeted. Any earned value analysis parameter like ACWP, BCWP, BCWS, cost or schedule variances, or index may reveal the project state of health, in order to take decision. Evaluating the trends of the Earned Value parameters will help us in taking a better decision at the right moment.
Figure 12 Earned Value Trend for Expenses
3.3. Success Probability Trend The best way to measure project performance is to estimate what is going on with the project success probabilities. If they raise it means that contingency reserves are spent slower than expected, if they drop it means that project performance is not as good as it was planned and corrective actions are needed. Success probabilities may change due to performance results, scope changes, cost changes, risk changes, or resource changes. Trends of success probabilities depend not only on project performance but also on project environment. If risk analysis team of the project management team discover new risks and
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included them in the pessimistic scenario it changes the shape of probability curves. In this case the probability to meet project targets become lower and success probability trend will show the problem even if the performance was good enough.
Figure 13 Success Probability Trend for Expenses
The success probability trends measure and show not only project performance but also project health taking into consideration both internal and external factors We consider success probability trends as the really integrated project performance measurement tool.
4. CONCLUSIONS
The complexity of construction projects requires new and advanced tools and techniques for decision support. As part of this trend, the Success Driven Project Management methodology provides a comprehensive approach to construction project management. Including Quantity Based Scheduling, Application of Corporate Norms, Conditional Scheduling, Resource Critical Path Calculation, Trend Analysis, Risk Simulation and Analysis and Success Probability Trends, Success Driven Project Management is a proven methodology widely used in large scale construction projects in Russia, Ukraine, Brazil and Romania.
REFERENCES
Chartered Institute of Building, 2008, Managing Risk of Delayed Completion in the 21st Century, pp.5253. Liberzon Vladimir, 2011, Spider Project. Advance Features, Construction CPM Conference, Walt Disney World Swan Hotel, Florida. Liberzon, V., and Russell D. Archibald, 2003, From Russia with Love: Truly Integrated Project Scope, Schedule, Resource and Risk Information, PMI World Congress, The Hague. Purnus Augustin, 2008, Project Management Information Systems, Conspress , Bucharest
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Purnus Augustin, Liberzon Vladimir, Dobre Mihaela, 2009, Implementing Project Portfolio Management in a Telecom Company PMICOS 6th Annual Conference, Boston Purnus Augustin, 2009, Resource Critical Path. Advance Resource Constrained Project Management, Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Informatics in Economy, Bucharest Purnus Augustin, Shavyrina Victoria, 2011, Resource Scheduling A Primary Key for Realistic Project Planning PMICOS 8th Annual Conference, San Francisco PMI, 2008, PMBOK Guide: A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, Fourth Edition, Newtown, PA: Project Management Institute For additional information on the Spider Project software package visit this Web site: http://www.spiderproject.com
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A TOOL FOR ASSESSING AND IMPROVING SAFETY PERFORMANCE IN LARGE CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES IN EGYPT
Ibrahim Abdul Rashid Professor of Construction Project Management, Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt, Ibrahim.sama@gmail.com Hesham Bassioni Associate Professor, Dept. of Construction & Building Eng., Arab Academy for Science, Technology & Maritime Transport, Abu Kir, Alexandria, Egypt, hbassioni@yahoo.co.uk Faez Ba-Wazir Master Graduate, Dept. of Construction & Building Eng., Arab Academy for Science, Technology & Maritime Transport, Abu Kir, Alexandria, Egypt; fw02wf@yahoo.com
Abstract In many countries a contractor's safety performance record is considered one of the items that qualify a contractor for a bid, and many public agencies include safety standards as part of the construction contract documents. Measuring safety performance is an important project practice which should be used as an instrument to choosing a contractor. A key factor in the control and improvement of any performance aspect on site is the ability to measure the performance. The objective of this paper is to establish a tool for assessing and improving the safety performance of large construction companies in Egypt. A field survey was conducted through a structured questionnaire including 20 building construction companies in Egypt. SPSS program was used to analyze the data to present statistical measures. The accidents frequency rate (AFR) and the safety performance attitude score (SPAS) were used to measure the safety performance of the participating companies. Then the correlation between both the accidents frequency rate and the safety performance attitude score were studied. It was concluded that a high correlation between accidents frequency rate and the safety performance attitude score of the company and they are negatively correlated. A simple linear regression model for predicting the company accidents frequency rate (AFR) from a known company safety performance attitude score (SPAS) was identified. Based on AFR and SPAS a tool for assessing the construction safety was established and the procedure for identifying the areas of improvement was discussed with an illustrative example. Keywords: Safety Performance, Measurement, Benchmarking, Construction Companies, Egypt.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Construction sites have been described as complex and unsafe; Complex because of extensive use of sophisticated plants, equipment, modern methods of construction, multidisciplinary and multitasked aspects of its project workforce, and unsafe because of the high incidence of accidents (Toe, et al. 2005). Workplace fatalities and injuries can result in great losses to individuals, organizations, societies, and the construction industry as a whole. Furthermore, the direct and indirect costs of accidents and the ever-increasing cost of medical treatment and potential for lawsuits all add up to higher insurance premiums and to a negative financial impact because of poor safety performance (Wilson and Koehn 2000). In many countries a contractor safety performance record is considered one of the items that qualify a contractor for a bid, and many public agencies include safety standards as part of the construction contract documents. Measuring safety performance is an important project practice and can be used as an instrument to choosing a contractor. A key factor in the control and improvement of any performance aspect on site is the ability to measure the performance. Unmeasured performance precludes a reliable assessment of progress, deterioration or immobility (Laufer and Ledbetter 1986). This will help to evaluate the safety program effectiveness, determine the reasons of success or failure, locate and identify the problem areas and determine the level of remedial effort to be applied. The study approach was to first review literatures relating to the topic of this study and to identify methods of safety performance measurement. Then data was collected through a structured questionnaire to measure the safety performance of the companies. Statistical techniques were used to analyze data and a tool was established to assess and improve the safety performance of companies. The focus of the study was on large companies, whereas safety management is mostly applied since they have the managerial ability to deal with such issues. In small to medium companies, their safety programs are often very informal and unwritten while in large construction companies such programs are always well structured and documented, (Tam, et al. 2002). Even in Egyptian large companies, safety programs are less formal than those in Western counterparts (Hassanein and Hanna 2008). This study aims to provide a tool to assess and improve the safety performance in large construction companies in Egypt. The remaining paper is divided into the following sections: Safety Performance Measurement; Questionnaire Survey; Correlation of Safety Assessment Results; Linear Regression of Accidents Frequency Rate and Safety Performance Attitude Score; A Tool for Assessing and Improving Construction Safety; and Conclusion and Recommendations.
2. SAFETY PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

Four basic dimensions are most relevant to safety performance measurement, namely: efficiency; reliability; validity and diagnostic capacity (Laufer and Ledbetter 1986). Many methods exist and have been proposed for gauging the merits of a safety program and measuring safety performance. This can be classified as systemic and organic. Systemic Measures are concerned with the effects of the program, i.e., the achievements of the aims
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the program is designed to serve, for example reduction of fatalities, the saving of money, etc. Frequency rate, Severity rate, incidence rate are few examples of systemic measures. Organic Measures: are concerned with the fundamental aspects of safety performance. In this type of measure, answers to few questions are sought, for example: Is the program effective in modifying unsafe behavior? Have injury-producing physical conditions been corrected? The most common of these appraisal techniques are checklists, audits, profiles and surveys (Baig 2001). Furthermore, Mitropoulos and Namboodiri (2011) grouped methods for measuring safety risk of construction activities into risk estimates, ergonomic assessment methods, and compliance measurements. In past several decades many attempts have been made to determine or rate quantitatively the safety level of plant or any industry. The only means so far employed is through accident statistics, which by their very nature are collected after the event, which is unfortunate. For the accident data to be statistically validated, it must be collected either over long periods of time or from a large number of similar activities (Baig 2001). A number of safety performance indices are now in use, which are typically systemic measures, such as a number of disabling injuries, injury frequency rates, injury severity rates, experience modification rate, accident costs, number of deaths, number of first aid cases, recordable occupational illnesses, and the ratio of injury severity to injury frequency, and total injury rates (Bu-Kamsin 1999; Ng et al. 2005).
2.1. Accidents Frequency Rates Frequency rates measure the safety performance in terms of number of accidents and were considered as a tool to assess the companys safety performance. The frequency rate can be computed in two different ways to determine frequency of accidents or injuries. The methodology is the same for all cases. The disabling frequency rate is based on the total number of death, permanent, partial, or temporary total disabilities which occur during the period covered by the rate. The rate relates these injuries to hours worked during the period and expresses them usually in terms of million-hour units (Baig 2001; Bu-Kamsin 1999). The Accidents Frequency Rate (AFR) is computed using the following formula:
AFR =
No. of disabling injuries x 10 6 Employee hours of exposure
Eq. (1)
2.2. Severity Rates Frequency rates, however, do not depict the entire true picture, and there was a need for severity rates. The American National Standard Institute (ANSI) has established a means of measuring severities through the use of time charges. Fatalities and injuries are assigned time charges, based on average experience and on the life expectancy of the average worker
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times the number of working days per year. The disabling Injury Severity Rate (DISR) is computed using the following formula:
Total days charged x 10 6 DISR = Employee hours of exposure
Eq. (2)
2.3. Safety Performance Attitude Score An organic statistic of safety performance is suggested in this paper that measures the factors affecting safety performance, thus measuring performance in a leading manner, rather than lagging indicators as in the results measures of frequency and severity rates. The factors affecting safety performance in Egypt have been assessed in Abdul-Rashid, Bassioni, and Bawazeer (2007) as shown in Table 1. The safety performance attitude score (SPAS) is calculated for each company/project to reflect the degree of safety performance. It is the sum of the actual occurrence of each of the safety factors evaluated by the particular through a questionnaire. Each factor is assessed through a five-point Likert scale with options of very high, high, moderate, low and very low, and scoring is rated from very high being 5 and very low being 1.
3. QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY
The questionnaire was designed to achieve the research objectives. It consists of an introduction and two parts. The introduction gives a description of the survey, its purpose and objectives. Part (A) is related to general information about the companies. The respondents were requested to answer general information pertaining to their classification and experience in construction. It also includes information about their injuries and total of man-hour worked last year. Part (B) includes the list of the factors affecting the safety performance in construction industry, as in Table 1. The respondents were asked to evaluate each factor as to the degree of actual occurrence / consideration of the factor in the respondents company based on a five-point Likert scale. Respondents were invited to state any other factors that affect safety performance and to rate these factors. The questionnaire was asked to be answered by the safety professional / supervisor (if any) or by the project manager in the company. The questionnaire was personally handed over to the respondents, and an interviewer was available to answer any questions relating to the questionnaire. A list of large construction companies was obtained from the Egyptian Federation for Construction and Building Contractors and classified as first, second or third grades. One hundred seventeen large companies were approached and eighty companies responded to the questionnaire survey, out of which, twenty companies provided complete information about their injuries and total man-hours worked. The response rate was low due to that the company safety data being considered as confidential and not allowed to others, as the respondents feared of a bad reputation or further legal responsibility even though this data was for scientific research only.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Main factors 2. Role of Government & 1. Administrative and engineering management commitment societies
Sub Factors Safety awareness of company's top management Safety awareness of project managers Availability a clear company safety policy Issuing & implementation of in-house safety rules, safety program or manuals including emergency plan & procedure Conduction of safety policy review Management's attitude towards employees welfare Issuing of safety laws, standards, regulations & legislations Rigorous enforcement of safety regulations Size of the project Ratio of site area to building area
Main factors
Sub Factors Number of layers of management Percentage of new Employees on site Definition of safety responsibility Number of safety supervisors
5. Organizational structure
Authority of safety supervisor Authority of foreman Number of Employees on site
Size of the crew
Number of subcontractors Co-ordination, control and management of sub-contractors Involvement of top management Team turnover (team stability). Safety inspection by government Authorities Safety inspection by management Safety inspection by safety supervisor Conducting regular toolbox meetings (safety meetings) by safety supervisor Conducting safety meeting before each activity begins Attendance of Safety meetings by management
3. Project Nature
Type of owner Complexity of the design Employee age Employee experience
4. Historic, human & psychological climate
Employee education
8. Safety Records & reports 12. Medical 11. Economic 10. Safety Educating 9. Incentive facilities Investment & Training
7. Safety meetings
6. Safety inspections
Planning and organizing the site (layout) work environment Cost of the project Planning & scheduling of the project Application of new technology in construction
Recording & reporting of daily safety issues
Employee safety training received Employee marital status Employee safety awareness, knowledge & involvement Employee accident experience Employees language and communication barriers Employees culture background Relation between the management and employees on the site Relation between the supervisor and employees on the site Interrelation between the employees on the site Increased job-related pressure on workers Excessive overtime work for employees
Implementation of safety rewards Implementation of safety fines Implementation of disciplinary actions Conducting safety training and orientation Issuing of safety booklets Talk by management on safety Displaying safety posters Training for first aid for all employees Budget allocated for safety Safety investment on Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and other safety resources Insuring with insurance companies Availability of medical advice Availability of adequate facilities for first aid treatment Conducting periodically random drug testing
Blank
Blank
Table 1: Factors Affecting Safety Performance in Egypt
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The Accidents Frequency Rates (AFR) and company Safety Performance Attitude Scores (SPAS) were calculated for each company. The calculated accidents AFR varied from 2.29 to 31.93, with an average of 13.3 and standard deviation of 8.196. The safety performance attitude score SPAS for the participated companies varied from 127 to 247, with an average of 202 and standard deviation of 36.49.
4. CORRELATION OF SAFETY ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A correlation coefficient (r) indicates both the direction and strength of the relation between two variables. The sign of the coefficient (+ or ) indicates the type of relation, positive or negative. The value of the coefficient indicates the strength of the relation, when the relation is perfect the value is 1.0 and 0.0 when there is no systematic relation. The value of R is often a good indicator of how the prediction of one variable from other variable. Studying relations between variables is very important; it helps understanding how variables are related to one another. The accidents frequency rate and the company safety performance attitude score distributions were statistically analyzed to describe the variability in the data. Statistical correlation was used to investigate and examine the relationship and dependences between the accidents frequency rates and company safety performance attitude scores. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the accidents frequency rate and the company safety performance attitude score is (0.87) and it is significant at the (0.01) level. This implies the existence of a high correlation between them.
5. LINEAR REGRESSION OF ACCIDENTS FREQUENCY RATE AND SAFETY PERFORMANCE ATTITUDE SCORE
Regression is a technique used to predict the value of a dependent variable using one or more independent variables. A regression equation allows us to express the relationship between two variables algebraically. A regression line is a line drawn through the points on a scatter plot to summarize the relationship between the variables being studied. The simple linear regression equation which evaluates the linear relationship between the accident frequency rate (AFR) and the safety performance attitude score (SPAS) can be expressed as a straight line equation, as shown in Figure 1. Analysis was conducted using SPSS software.
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30.00
Accidents Frequency Rate (AFR)
20.00
10.00
0.00
125.00
150.00
175.00
200.00
225.00
250.00
Safety Performance Attitude Score (SPAS)
Figure 1: Scatter Plot for Safety Performance Attitude Score and Accidents Frequency Rate
The results of the analysis shows that linear regression equation for predicting the company accidents frequency rate (AFR) from a known company safety performance attitude score (SPAS) can be given by the following model: AFR = 0.196 SPAS + 52.985 Eq. (3)
The analysis results show that the above model is a good model fitness with adjusted R2 = 0.752. This means that 75.2% of the variance of the accident frequency rate can be accounted by the above regression model, which means that the safety performance attitude scores (SPAS), is a good predictor of the accident frequency rate (AFR).
6. A TOOL FOR ASSESSING AND IMPROVING CONSTRUCTION SAFETY

This section establishes a tool for Egyptian construction companies to assess their safety and accordingly improve it. This tool is mainly depends on the comparing of safety performance of a company relative to that of other construction companies using the concept of Key Performance Indicator (KPI). KPI was considered one of the main performance measurement frameworks that existed in the U.K. construction industry. The KPI are designated in U.K. as a benchmark for the whole industry, where companies can benchmark themselves against national performance and identify areas for improvement, (Bassioni, et al. 2004). KPI is the measure of performance of an activity that is critical to the success of a company. Constructing Excellence in the Built Environment which is a program to improve the
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construction industry in the U.K. publishes KPI wall charts containing graphs which can be used by companies to benchmark their performance against the rest of the industry or sector (Constructing Excellence in the Built Environment 2006). Massalam (2007) developed Egyptian benchmarking charts similar to that of the UK, where the safety performance is based on frequency rates. To establish a Key performance indicator for construction safety in Egypt, the accident frequency rates and safety performance attitude scores which were collected and calculated in this study were used and represented in graphs. The safety performance of the companies represented by the accident frequency rates and the safety practice of the companies were used to assess the safety performance or practice of a company relative to other companies in the construction industry. Figure 2 represents a cumulative curve which was fitted by the SPSS software; with R square value of 0.992. Through this curve any company can assess its safety performance relative to the other companies in the construction industry. For example a company which had an accident frequency rate of 5 is classified within the best 20 % of the construction companies related to safety performance. It is noticeable from the curve that with decreasing the company percentile, the company safety performance improves relative to other companies.
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
Company Percentile
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5 20.0 22.5 25.0 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.0
Accident Frequency Rate
Figure 2: Company Cumulative Percentile for Accident Frequency Rate
Figure 3 represents a cumulative curve which was fitted by the SPSS software with R square value of 0.986. Through this curve any company can assess its safety practice relative to the other companies in the construction industry. For example a company which had safety performance attitude scores of 230 is classified within the best 30 % of the construction companies related to safety practice. It is noticeable from the curve that with decreasing the company percentile, the company safety practice improves relative to other companies.
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100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
Company Percentile
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
Safety Performance Attitude Score
Figure 3: Company Cumulative Percentile for Safety Performance Attitude Score
The improvement areas of the safety of a company can be identified by determining the actually implemented factors which was within the 90% percentile. Mean and standard deviation of actual occurrence scores for the 63 factors. Table 2 shows an illustrative example to find out the areas of improvement considering only five factors. The same procedures can be applied to evaluate the other factors. For example, Factors 1.1 has an actual score of 4 that although is higher than the mean of 3.25 and based on the standard deviation of the population of 0.716 and assuming a normal distribution provides an 85.31 percentile. This can be acceptable to many companies, but if the company requires a 90 percentile, then it is not acceptable and thus needs improvement, as shown in Table 2. Factors such as 11.2 having an actual score of 3 less than the mean of 3.1 provides a percentile less than 50%, i.e. with a negative Z score, and thus needs improvement. In this manner the specific areas of improvement can be identified and also prioritized based on their relative industry percentiles.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Z Score
XM ( )
Fact or No.
Factor Description Safety awareness of company's top management Safety awareness of project managers Safety inspection by safety supervisors Safety investment on Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and other safety resources Safety inspection by management
Mean (M)
Standard Deviation ()
Actual Occurrence Score (X)
Percentile
Action
1.1
3.25
0.71635
1.05
85.31%
Needs improvement Needs improvement
1.2
3.45
0.75915
0.72
76.42%
6.3
3.2
1.05631
1.70
95.54%
Acceptable
11.2
3.1
0.96791
0.10
Needs improvement
6.2
3.0
0.79472
0.00
50.00%
Needs improvement
Table 2: Illustrative Example for Areas of Improvement
7. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

A study was conducted to assess and improve the safety performance in large construction companies in Egypt. The data was collected through a questionnaire and statically analyzed to calculate the accidents frequency rates and the safety performance attitude scores of the participated companies. Sixty three factors affecting the safety performance were identified to evaluate the company safety performance attitude score. The correlation coefficient between the accidents frequency rates and the safety performance attitude scores shows a high correlation between them and they are negatively correlated. A simple linear regression model for predicting the company accidents frequency rate (AFR) from a known company safety performance attitude score (SPAS) was identified. A tool for assessing the construction safety was established. The procedure for identifying the areas of improvement was discussed with an illustrative example. This tool can be considered as practical indicator to assess and improve the companys safety performance. It is used to compare the company safety performance and practice with that of other construction companies in order to identify the areas need considered to improve the construction safety. The tool can be easily applied by Egyptian construction companies. The results of this study could be used to evaluate the safety performance of the construction companies during the bidding process or during the contract periods. Safety performance indicator for the construction companies identified by this study should be adopted and such indicators should be established for other different grades with regular
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updating. Quantitative appraisal of safety performance should be applied for all construction companies to permit comparing different companies performances. The safety history of the construction company should be considered while classification the companies by the Egyptian Federation for Construction & Building Contractors and in the pre-qualification process. A data bank for statistical data concerning construction accidents for each construction company should be established. Such bank can be helpful to identify areas that need to be specifically addressed. Accidents records must be publicized. The intent of such procedure is to make persuaded to act upon improvements in the companies safety records.
REFERENCES
Abdul-Rashid, I., Bassioni, H., and Bawazeer, F., 2007. Factors Affecting Safety Performance in Large Construction Contractors in Egypt. 23rd Annual Conference of the Association of Researchers in Construction Management ARCOM, Sept. 3 5, Belfast, Northern Ireland. Baig, Mirza Mansoor, 2001. Safety Assessment of Industrial Construction Projects in Saudi Arabia. Master thesis, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. Bassioni, H. A., Price, A. D. F., and Hassan, T. M., 2004. Performance Measurement in Construction, Journal of Management in Engineering, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 4250. Bu-Khamsin, Mohamed Ali Saleh, 1999. Safety Performance Measurements: A PC Evaluation Tool for Industrial Contractor in Saudi Arabia. Master thesis, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. Constructing Excellence in the Built Environment, 2006. KPI zone Introduction to Benchmarking, Constructing Excellence, London, UK. Hassanein, A. A. G. and Hanna, R. S., 2008. Safety Performance in the Egyptian Construction Industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. Vol. 134, No. 6, pp. 451455. Laufer, Alexander, and Ledbetter, William B., 1986. Assessment of Safety Performance Measures at Construction Sites. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 112, No. 4, pp. 530542. Mitropoulos, P. and Namboodiri, M., 2011. New Method for Measuring the Safety Risk of Construction Activities: Task Demand Assessment. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. Vol. 137, No. 1, pp. 3038. Mossalam, A. I., 2007. Developing Benchmarking Scores for the Egyptian Contracting Companies. HBRC Journal, Vol. 3, No. 1. Ng, S. T., Cheng, K. P., and Skitmore R. M., 2005. A Framework for Evaluating the Safety Performance of Construction Contractors. Building and Environment, 40( 10), pp. 13471355. Tam, C. M., Tong, Thomas K. L., Chiu,Gerald C. W., and Fung, Lavn W. H., 2002. Non-Structural Fuzzy Decision Support System for Evaluation of Construction Safety Management System. International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 303 313. Toe, E., Ling, F., and Chong, A., 2005. Framework for Project Managers to Manage Construction Safety. International Journal of Project Management, 23 ( 4), pp. 329341. Wilson, J., and Koehn, E., 2000. Safety Management: Problems Encountered and Recommended Solutions. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 126, No. 1, pp. 7779.
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EMBODIED CARBON OF SHIPPING CONTAINER ARCHITECTURE BASED ON AN ISO STANDARD PLATFORM

Adrian Robinson Buro Happold, LONDON, UK, adrian.robinson@burohappold.com Jeremy Wedge Buro Happold, LONDON, UK, jeremy.wedge@burohappold.com Edward Sauven Buro Happold, LONDON, UK, edward.sauven@burohappold.com Tony Swindells KKA Architects, LIVERPOOL, UK, tony.swindells@kka.ltd.uk Alistair Gibb Loughborough University, Leicestershire, UK, A.G.Gibb@lboro.ac.uk Simon Austin Loughborough University, Leicestershire, UK, S.A.Austin@lboro.ac.uk
Abstract Shipping containers come from a customizable product family of modular elements with interchangeable sub-assemblies and component groupings to an ISO standard configuration. In their intermodal transportation use, these modular assemblies are volume produced to provide a selection of self-contained closed and open units. Compared to most building systems, container architecture is very recent. Containers offer an idealized model for customizable modular architecture. They have a standard universal platform, and they can be arranged in standard building configurations. Given the recent advances in the use of parametric model databases for building information modeling (BIM) and computer aided design (CAD) & manufacture, this research takes advantage of the benefits and uptake of scalable building designs, costing tools and carbon measuring in containerised buildings. In this first stage of research, comparisons are made between the carbon footprint of new fitted out modules shipped to Europe from East Asia, compared to similar but re-used, locally sourced containers, and non-container type modules also manufactured locally. The ISO units provide a uniform, transferable architecture, but as a result of their standardised universal platform structure, containers are heavier and less efficient to use than competing modular systems, and there are drawbacks with carbon footprint compared to locally sourced material options. In later stages, the parametric model will be used to optimize dimensional and spatial variations of container and other modular building types. Keywords: Design, Offsite, Parametrics, Modularisation, Containerisation.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Containers offer an idealized model for customizable modular architecture. They have a standard universal platform, and they can be arranged in standard building configurations. Given the recent advances in the use of parametric model databases for building information modeling (BIM) and computer aided design (CAD) & manufacture, this research takes advantage of the benefits and uptake of scalable building designs, costing tools and carbon measuring for exploring containerised buildings and comparing them to other similar systems. The paper first looks at the product architecture of the shipping container and its recent adaptation to buildings in its different forms. The main focus in this stage of the research is to measure the carbon footprint of these building types compared to more standard modular systems. Later research stages will test the usefulness of a parametric model to optimize structure, materials and layouts, by comparing the cost and carbon footprint of different room options and general arrangements.
2. INTERMODAL SHIPPING CONTAINERS

Standard shipping containers are stackable, transportable, robust, modular units; they are prefabricated, volume produced and reusable products. The term intermodal denotes the use of multiple modes of transport (ISBU 2012). The container has had a major impact on industrialised society through the economies of transportation; it is a ubiquitous product, but also a disruptive technology due to its effects on shipping and global manufacturing trends that had until recently been largely overlooked (Levinson 2006, ISBU 2012, Robinson et al 2011a).
3. MODULAR PRODUCT ARCHITECTURE

Shipping containers come from a customizable product family of modular elements (Pine 1993) with interchangeable sub-assemblies and component groupings to an ISO standard configuration. Containers can be described as having a platform architecture; a platform being a collection of assets with component designs that are shared by multiple products (Ulrich & Eppinger 2003). As a product family on a common platform, these containers meet a variety of market needs (Simpson 2003). Product family design uses either a top-down or proactive approach where a family of products is developed based on a platform and its derivatives or a bottom-up approach with existing products redesigned to be more standardised (Simpson et al 2001; Syed 2010). The steady development of the modern container that started in 1956 largely came about
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through a bottom-up approach, but since ISO standardisation it can be argued that it has followed a largely top-down approach, by using a standard platform to create a family of products. This paper will further explore how containerized building designs have also followed these top-down and bottom-up approaches.
4. CONTAINERS AS BUILDING UNITS USING THE ISO STANDARD PLATFORM

Compared to most building systems, shipping container architecture is very recent. Since 2001 there has been a steady stream of imaginatively designed buildings using the container. Sometimes referred to as cosmopolitan building blocks (Kotnik 2008) with a Lego-like construction aesthetic of bold colours (Building Design 2009). See Figure 1.
Figure 1: Container buildings provide opportunities for unique architecture
When containers are used as Intermodal Steel Building Units (ISBU's), they can take on the characteristics of an open building system (Groak 1992): being dimensionally standardised, with common connections, and therefore leading to the possibility of interchangeability between manufacturers. Using the container platform as a building unit leads to a common set of systems/subsystems, components and processes, which should create variety at lower cost (Simpson 2004). There are two main forms of container construction: reclaimed re-used containers converted to ISBUs, and purpose made manufactured building units based on the shipping container platform. Both reused and new manufactured solutions benefit from the increased ability to be re-locatable (Kronenburg et al 2003, LOT-EK 2003, Robinson et al 2011a) The platform concept for using containers as building units works along similar principles to the container product family. Pre-assembled components of the container such as the rails,
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walls and corner fittings that create a volumetric box are modified for building use, with insulation, linings and internal fittings and finishes added to suit the required internal environment (Robinson et al 2011b). The units are assembled into the whole building, where the final shape of the building is determined by the arrangement of modules, in response to the overall building site plan, the client brief and the financial model for the number of habitable spaces that need to be provided. In product design terms this is similar to a configurational product family design where a platform is made up from a number of modules that can be added or removed to generate variety (Simpson 2003, Syed 2010).
Figure 2: Module based on an ISO platform as a part of the whole modular building platform
A building construction platform design is therefore being used at two different levels: the ISO standard platform for the ISBUs, and the whole building platform made up of a varied configurations of modular building elements.
5. RE-USE OF REDUNDANT SHIPPING CONTAINERS

In 2005 it was estimated that there were 700,000 unused containers in US ports alone and 125,000 redundant containers in UK ports (Marshall 2009; Kotnik 2008). Redundant reclaimed containers, also called deadheads (Building Design 2009), have been adapted and assembled with other more conventional building elements to create low cost, low carbon buildings. In construction product design and development terms, the re-use of containers is a bottom-up process (Simpson et al 2001). Interestingly, others have also described the container movement in its cultural development as bottom-up (Kotnik 2008); containers were first used as shacks and shelters in low economy countries before they became popular with architects.
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6. PURPOSE MADE MODULAR BUILDING UNITS

Similar to other volumetric systems, commercially manufactured modular building units using the container platform have been fitted out in a factory in South East Asia and shipped to Europe to become volumetric elements in cellularised buildings. The module production line benefits from being part of mature and much larger manufacturing plant, which allows it to respond to the stop-start demand for container buildings. Normally, modular buildings are as much as 15 to 20% more costly (NAO 2005) than traditional construction, but they bring other commercial benefits to a project such as time saved, predictable quality, and reduced snagging. However these benefits may only account for 10% of savings (NAO 2005) in capital cost and there are usually other drivers for adopting modular. Despite the distances involved, the overall cost of shipping container units appears comparable with traditional construction and is therefore less costly than most modular systems. This is due to the low cost of container transport, and materials and labour in Asia that is more competitive compared to Europe. Typical applications are budget hotels (Building 2008, Robinson et al 2011a), student accommodation, and worker housing (Tempo Housing 2010) and mining camps (3Twenty Solutions 2011). Most units may have an external building envelope made from traditionally built cladding and roof elements, some to hide the origins of their construction (Building 2008, Robinson et al 2011a). The product development of purpose made building units based on a container platform is a top-down approach (Simpson et al 2001) because of the deliberate decision to use an existing universal platform. This decision drives the design process and final outcome.
7. BUILDING INFORMATION MODELLING USING PARAMETRIC DESIGNS

Building Information Models (BIM) are used to generate and manipulate building information using 3D parametric data for geometric components and their layouts, allowing building information to be generated automatically. BIM works by using data with object orientated representations that can be extracted and manipulated to show the best building arrangements and therefore improve the decision making process (AGCA 2006). ISBUs with their container platform lend themselves very well to a design using parametric models. This is in effect a scalable approach to platform design (Meyner & Lehnerd 1997), with some constant variables and others scaled in one or two directions, to generate variable forms within the same product family. Parametric models have become increasingly sophisticated; with Building Object Behaviours (BOB) with domain expertise embedded into arrangement of elements (Ghang et al 2005). These models can be used to assign not just geometrical data, but consider other performance data and characteristics including costings. New integrated decision-making tools are being considered by the industry to assess and optimize options that consider the
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full performance of the building as well as its structure. These tools require a holistic approach with systems level thinking that accurately represent the complex behaviour and use of buildings (Bank et al 2011). This approach has parallels to agile product development practices (Anderson 1996) where economies in variety, cost control and production are achieved in mass customization of a standard product by actively quantifying the costs of variety of solutions during the different stages of the design and production processes, and comparing this data with their design flexibility for modularization and customisation. During the design process, parametric data can be used to assess costs based on element sizes, materials and location. These values can be further refined by considering subjective factors such as commercial competition and quality (Daschbach 1988). An additional dimension to optimisation of parametric design and cost data is the use of carbon data to determine building carbon footprint (Bank et al 2011). The combined data for cost and carbon can be assessed iteratively through feedback loops in order to reach optimized solutions.
8. CARBON INVENTORY LIFE CYLE ASSESSMENT TOOL

The carbon inventory is a streamlined Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) tool, using carbon as a single indicator rather than looking at whole life carbon measurement. A low carbon footprint does not automatically mean low environmental impact, which is measured using a collection of indicators in addition to carbon footprint, such as environmental pollution, fossil fuel depletion and waste disposal (BRE Green Guide). In most European countries, embodied carbon emissions are outside policy and planning guidance, but future EU standards are expected to elaborate on ISO 14040 with compulsory Environmental Product Declarations (EPD) for manufacturers (CEN/TC 350). This assessment follows guidelines in EN ISO 14040 to define assumptions, but there is little regulation nor consensus on standard procedures concerning this process. These assessments have been based on carbon data from Bath ICE Inventory v2.0 and the calculations use average national rates for transportation. The main purpose of this carbon inventory is to make comparisons between different building options, not to give accurate carbon emissions. Using average carbon emission rates, results are estimated to have an accuracy of up to +/ 25%. For embodied energy reductions to have relevance, they need to be significant compared to overall energy needs of the building during its lifetime. Typically values of embodied energy in materials and their construction are typically 15% of overall energy use at current emission rates, but operational emissions are predicted to fall to 90% of current rates over the next 30 years (DEFRA 2010).
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9. CARBON MEASURING AND COMPARISON RESULTS

The carbon life cycle analysis model has been used to measure the carbon footprint for a hotel building in northern Europe, comparing different scenarios. In all cases the building consists of 5 stories of room/corridor/room units and stair units as shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3: Typical Building Plan, 5 Stories, Total Floor Area 3075 m2
The analysis first looks at the container platform based modules fabricated and fitted out in South East Asia, transported by ship to UK and then by road transport to site. Foundations, ground works and external envelope are conventionally sourced in Europe and transported by road. The carbon footprint for the modules has been broken down in to constituent elements: steel shell, plywood and plasterboard walls, floors and ceilings, fittings. Only the mechanical and electrical services have been excluded. The embodied energy has then been calculated for the steel units, fit out, faade envelope and site works.
ISO Platform Modules sourced East Asia
Volumetric Modules sourced Europe
Figure 4: Embodied Energy Breakdown for hotel building using ISO standard platform modules
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Figure 4 compares embodied energy for ISO standard modules from East Asia compared to nationally non-container sourced modules in Europe. There is a 20% increase in carbon due to transportation, and an 8% increase in materials when using the hot-rolled steel ISO container instead of a lighter cold-rolled steel frame normally adopted in Europe. Figure 5 shows the embodied energy for the containers as an 18% proportion of total carbon emissions for the hotel building being operated for 40 years (Carbon Emission Source: ICE 2.0 DEFRA 2010)
Figure 5: Total Carbon emissions for construction and operation of hotel
Two further two options were measured and analysed to compare these modular buildings with a similar arrangement, but with re-used containers, and an equivalent steel frame building using more traditional on-site forms of construction with non load-bearing partition walls. Figure 6 shows a breakdown of the carbon footprint for the substructures & site works, faade envelope, fit out and steel structure for all four options.
Figure 6: Carbon Footprint in Tonnes of carbon for different building options
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The buildings made from recycled containers, assuming a zero carbon footprint in their reuse in construction, have a 21% lower embodied energy (0.40 tCO2/m2) compared to the benchmark European sourced modules. Embodied energy for the steel frame building is 0.59 t tCO2/m2.
Figure 7: Comparative breakdown of embodied carbon tonnage for hotel building options
As shows in Figure 7, a breakdown of carbon in terms of materials extraction and processing, transport and construction shows that the embodied energy from cradle to the factory gate accounts for over two-thirds of all carbon. This is understandable given that the main aim of modular construction is to minimize resources and energy use on site to a minimum, in the belief that these can be more easily minimized within the more controlled environment of the factory. Relative to the benchmark units, the modules based on the container platform have a 16% higher carbon footprint in their initial materials and processing. This is mostly attributed to their heavier construction of the modules using the container platform. In steel tonnage terms, the weight of the hot-rolled steel container units are over 1.5 times as heavy as the benchmark units which in this case are made from lighter cold-rolled steel, stiffened with plasterboard.
10. CONCLUSIONS
Purpose made manufactured building units using the container platform provide a uniform, transferable architecture. However as a result of their standardised universal platform structure, containers are less efficient in use of materials compared to modular systems. Their economic viability lies in the ability to be transportable as large-scale building element from another continent with lower materials and labour rates. Containers continue to be a disruptive technology for construction, where markets are normally driven by the domestic
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value of products and construction services. As with international trade, there are drawbacks with carbon footprint compared to locally sourced material options, although the re-use of existing containers is a good compromise while these continue to be available.
REFERENCES
3 Twenty Solutions Container Camps, 2011. Overview of 3twenty Solutions www.3twenty.ca, Website Accessed 03/04/2011 Anderson, D. and Pine, J., 1996. Agile Product Development for Mass Customization: How to Develop and Deliver Products for Mass Customization, Niche Markets, JIT Build-to-Order, and Flexible Manufacturing. New York: McGraw-Hill Bank, L., Thompson, B, and McCarthy, M., 2011. Decision-making tools for evaluating the impact of materials selection on the carbon footprint of buildings. Carbon Management (2011) 2(4), 431441 Boxman Studios, 2010. http://www.boxmanstudios.com/ Website accessed 06/09/2010 BRE, 2009. The Green Guide to Building Specification. An Environmental Profiling System for Building Materials and Components. Brodaski, M., Campanelli, R. and Zabinski, K., 2010. Shipping Container Emergency Shelters Project Report for BSc WORCESTER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUT PROJECT NUMBER RP-0109 March 5, 2010 Building, 2008. Travelodge to build hotel with shipping containers. 8 January 2008. Dan Stewart Building Design, 2009. Scabals sports hall for Dunraven secondary school in Streatham, London. Building Study 12 June 2009 by Ellis Woodman CEN/TC 350. Sustainability of Construction Work, Standard under Development. 2007. Christensen, P. and Worzala, E., 2010. Applying Studio Pedagogy to Develop an Alternative Post-Hurricane Housing Solution Using Surplus Shipping Containers. JOSRE Vol 2 No. 1- 2010. Containers to Clinics, 2010. Clinics shipped from US to Haiti. http://www.containers2clinics.org Website accessed 22/07/2010. Daschbach, J.M. and Apgar, H., 1988. Design analysis through techniques of parametric cost estimation. Management Consulting & Research Inc., Sanra Barbara, CA (U.S.A.). DEFRA 2010. Bath, 2012. ICE Inventory v2.0 http://people.bath.uk/cj219 Ghang Lee, A., Rafael Sacks, A. and Eastman, C.M., 2005. Specifying parametric building object behavior (BOB) for a building information modeling system. Groak, S., 1992. The Idea of Building. Thought and action in the design and production of buildings. E&FN SPON. ISBU, 2012. Intermodal Steel Building Units & Container Homes. www.isbu-info.org Website accessed 10/05/2012. ISO 14040. The New International Standards for Life Cycle Assessment ISO 14040 and ISO 14044. M., Finkbeiner, A., Inaba, R., Tan, K., Christiansan, H-J., Kluppel. 2006. Springer. NAO, 2005. Using modern methods of construction to build homes more quickly and efficiently. National Audit Office. Kotnik, J., 2008. Container Architecture: this book contains 6441 Containers. Barcelona: Links International. Kronenburg, R., Lim, J. and Yunn Chii, W., 2003. Transportable Environments 2 London; New York: Spon Press, 2003. Levinson, M., 2006. The Box. How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and World Economy Bigger. New Jersey: Princeton University Press
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary LOT-EK, 2003. Mobile Dwelling Unit. Scoates, Christopher, LOT/EK Architecture, and Walker Art Center. New York, NY: Distributed Art Publishers, 2003. Marshall, 2009. Sustainable Design and Construction of a Library for Disabled Children of Jamaica. International Journal of Service Learning Vol 4, No1, pp. 119, 2009 Meyer, M.H. and Lehnerd, A. P., 1997. The Power of Product Platforms: Building Value and Cost Leadership. New York: Free Press. Robinson, A., Austen, S. and Gibb, A., 2011a. Efficiencies in Design and Manufacturing for Construction using Shipping Containers. ARCOM Conference, UWE, Bristol. Robinson, A., Austen, S. and Gibb, A., 2011b. Design and Building Performance of Intermodal Shipping Container Construction. 10th International Detail in Design in Architecture Conference, Istanbul. Simpson, T. W., 2003. Product Platform Design and Customisation: Status and Promise, Artificial Intelligence for Engineering Design, Analysis & Manufacturing (2004), Cambridge University Press. Simpson, T. W., Maier, J. R. A. and Mistree, F., 2001. Product platform design: method and application. Research in Engineering Design 131(2). Syed, M., 2010. PhD Thesis Untitled, Chapter 1 Platform-Based development of product families. Loughborough University. Unpublished. TEMPO Housing, 2010. http://www.tempohousing.com/ Website accessed 05/09/10. Urban Space Management, 2010. www.containercity.com. Website accessed 23/08/2010 Youssef, M. A., 1992. Agile manufacturing: a necessary condition for competing in global markets Industrial Engineering, December, pp. 1820. Zhang, Z. and Sharifi, H., 2000. A methodology for achieving agility in manufacturing organisations, International Journal of Operations & Production Management, Vol. 20 No. 4, pp. 496512.
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USING VISUAL PROJECT MANAGEMENT TOOLS IN MUSEUM DEVELOPMENT

Zoltn Rosts University of Technology and Economics, Budapest (BME) Department of Construction Technology and Management zrostas@ekt.bme.hu
Abstract Museum development is one of the most important fields of the western democracy state investments. A special sensibility is needed for organizing and smoothly pushing forward the development ideas because of the large amount of stakeholders and the cultural and political sensibility of a museum project's socio-cultural message. For creating a balance of the different values, aims and opinions sophisticated project communication becomes the focus. Comprehensibility, clearness, brevity and efficiency are the keywords of the different types of communication acts (question, order, opinion, analysis, etc.) For being comprehensive and transparent in a short time, we started to use pictograms and figures instead of (structured) texts. We were working deliberately with more and more visual elements to transfer the key messages using mind maps, flow-charts, problem maps as project management tools. In this article we would like to present the methodology and first experiences of this method called Visual Project Communication Management, used in the brand new Museum Quarter development in Budapest. Keywords: decision making, museum development, project communication, project management, visualization.
1. INTRODUCTION
In 2011, the Hungarian Government decided to build a Museum Quarter. As the leader of the project management team, during my preparation for the task I observed the phenomenon how the (political) leaders and non-professionals can better understand the different kinds of information for explanations of facts or for preparation of decisions. This work summarizes the practical lessons of this observation.
(note: henceforth the Decision Maker will be abbreviated with their initials, DM.)
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2. THE FACT UNDER DISCUSSION

During my work I have observed that for supporting decisions I needed more and more visual and less textual information and I produced more and more visual information to others. (Thesis) For the strategic and political decision making the well-prepared, fact-based VISUAL INFORMATION is more efficient than the textually presented facts, studies or expert opinions. This statement will be examined below with some historical and theoretical findings and practical examples. We shall focus on the preparatory phases high level (political, strategic) decisions and look for their characteristics. Our starting point is the figure below.
Fig. 1.: The sequential information transformation process
3. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
3.1. War and visualization In historical films or photos we can see as the generals bent over maps, reports, or read frontline messages nervously. Military leadership and strategic construction decisions are the same in many ways. Decisions must be made quickly, under charge of the full responsibility, in a situation-specific manner where there is always a lack of resources and time. The 2-8 years construction processes are the same as a period of a modern war and its consolidation time. But for the construction industry the available resources, however, are much fewer. On the other hand, this comparison is appropriate in some ways. We know the war-room in which the Battle of London at the time or the D-Day where the generals and some politicians could follow the events just in time visually on the wall of the proceeding. The staggering amount of simple report generated images, or the moving of the troops on the sand table practically simultaneously with the real events on the sands of the bloody Omaha beach. But we can mention the example of Wellington, as well, who was one of the pioneers of modern battlefield commanders (Keegan, J. 2011). He and his contemporaries collected visual information near the frontline to check the battlefield reports about the state of the battle. He took care and was outside of the enemy's guns and snipers operating zone, but was close
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enough to the most dangerous battlefield situations. They reduced the physical distance for giving urgent orders faster, in a more efficient and more controllable way in a constantly changing situation. As we have seen the visual information and the strategic decision making were closely linked.
Fig.2.: War-room of Battle of London, 1941
3.2. Politics and (creative) construction decision For all political classes in history the large public investment programs were important aspirations. The structure of cities and great public buildings has documented not only an age, but its leaders. Pericles of Athens, Napoleon III and Haussmann of Paris, or Mitterrand and his new buildings are belonging notions. Cultural institutions in France generally receive the name of their initiators after their death (Boulevard Haussmann, Centre Georges Pompidou, Bibliotheque Nationale Francios Mitterand). The reason is that some democracies allowed the political decision-making class in strictly statutory framework the direct say in the cities or in the construction decisions of public buildings. This is called France The Duke Effect (Chaslin, F. 1985) and it means that all important decisions during a project can be made by the head of state. Pompidou, Mitterand, Giscard d'Estaign, Chirac and Sarkozy also exercised this right.
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Fig. 3.: French President F. Mitterand, Minister of Culture J. Lang with Ieoh Ming Pei the architect discussing over the model of the Louvre Museums underground extension
Why in the history the strategic professions politicians and generals have been needed this strong visual support for their decisions? That is the subject of our further examination.
4. THEORICAL APPROACH
4.1. Decision science classics The Enlightenment Era gave us Ren Descartes and the theory (and feeling) of the rationality. In economy science appeared in the concept of probability and the theory of consumer choice. Prescriptive (normative) decision theory is followed by the descriptive, then one is after the concept was introduced the notion of the man who makes mistakes (homo erraticus) whose decisions are no longer rational. Herbert Simon following the behavioral sciences results explains the theory of bounded rationality (Simon, HA, 1982), which opened a new direction for decision support theory. The symbolic function of the decisions (one of the most important factors in the political driven public construction acts) described and explained in detail by James March (March, JG, 2000). The science of the decision adopted and built the theories at the same time for the visual thinking and the instinctive making of decisions. A new wave of the research of the decision science showed us the importance of the non-logical aspects of our everyday decisions or those of the experts. As the introductory story of Gladwells book, scandalous in the world of museums. It is the case of the ancient Greek masterpiece, a kuoros which has been investigated scientifically in many ways to prove its originality. The results were convincing, the papers of justification were right but there were some experts, who had a strange (physical) sensation against the sculpture. They could not express a factual fault, but their personal antipathy and dislike. The famous Metropolitan Museum bought the object for a fortune and some years after other investigations, more deeply achieved had
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demonstrated how many sophisticated tricks were committed to bewilder the Museums experts. Finally the quick and simple visual contact with the sculpture was enough for some real experts to form their judgment justified after years of doubt. The eye and heart won over the brain, the instinct knocked out the reason. (Gladwell, M. 2005.) The amateurs think about the strategy as a vision of the future. The Plan Pattern Position Perspective (and Ploy), the four of five Ps of the strategic theories of Mintzberg (Mintzberg et al. 2005.) have also visionary connotations.
4.2. Visuality Kristf Nyri, philosopher of science, says that people first think more in pictures, and then only in words. The visual presentation of objects of thought probably formed one of the first occurrences of group communication (Nyri K. 2000). Vilmos Csnyi, ethologist, describes in his famous book how gesticulated images call the group decisions that are far ahead of the verbal communication, and also play a major role in the development of the human being (Csnyi V. 2007). In psychiatric practice, even for the layman, are well known those examinations which are intended to explore the deeper mental problems. Such is the famous Rorschach test a visual ink spots evaluation verbally descripting the sensuality of the patient. But Solomon Asch's famous experiment in social psychology can also be mentioned, in which through three single lines group and individual sense of belonging (or refusal) and the relationships within a group of young students were examined. A simple visual experience could help to assess the relationship of group cohesion, the group's safety level. The construction science has long been also familiar with the graphical problem solving methods: Descriptive Geometry and the Strength of Materials (structural graphs) are the examples.
4.3. Type of major decisions in development In the major community construction projects the following important strategic decision situations can be seen in the preparation phase: 1. Political / strategic objectives on the national level 2. Choose of the Project Responsible person / The Commissioner and the circle of the experts, advisors 3. Limits of budget and source of finance 4. Field of operation / choosing the institutional system (culture, sport, etc.) 5. Institutions and their main functions to improve (with the Director or Staffs leader of the institution
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6. Acceptance of the project flow / tasks and schedules 7. Designation of the operations land / town, ground, territory 8. Localization and/or form of the buildings on site In case of the 3rd ,4th and 5th decisions (underlying) the data visualization systems are helpful. In the 6th, 7th and 8th case (in the box) we are looking for the visual tools of the decision support. What knowledge is needed for the DM in the complex case for creative construction decision making? The International Union of Architects (UIA) might be a competent body in the definition of the necessary knowledge basis for the creative construction decisions that was laid down in 1993 and was renewed in July 2005. Among these we wish to emphasize the followings: Awareness of responsibilities toward human, social, cultural, urban, architectural, and environmental values, as well as architectural heritage. Adequate knowledge of the means of achieving ecologically sustainable design and environmental conservation and rehabilitation. Adequate knowledge of project financing, project management, cost control and methods of project delivery. For complex fact-based decisions the Decision Maker uses the different Experts work. The wider the operational field, the more contradictory the different opinions and proposed variants of solutions could be. On the political field one of the superioritys proof is the capability of making quick and determined decisions. Lack of information, lack of knowledge on the special subject or field, lack of time and lack of concentration are the most important effects in this kind of situation. Possibilities of the problem solving (alternatives) presented in a quickly comprehensive way are helping the DMs.
4.4. Visual decision support tools Most important tools for daily use are: mind maps, flow-charts, building physical models, building virtual models, data visualization tools, charts and dashboards, visual conferences, etc. Actually we use different kinds of mind maps and flow-charts for the everyday problem solving. Mind maps are common graphical solutions, which allow you to see how certain facts and phenomena are linked to each another. Within this we distinguish two types: the tree structures models and the net structure models (concept maps). A flowchart is a type of diagram that represents an algorithm or process, showing the steps as boxes of various kinds, and they are put in order by connecting these with arrows. This diagrammatic representation can give a step-by-step solution to a given problem. (Wikipedia)
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5. THE PROJECT CASE

5.1. The project - major roles and decisions The Museum Quarter in Budapest will be the one of the most important cultural infrastructure projects of the EU budgeting period 201420. The Project Owner is the Hungarian Government; the Project Leader is the Commissioner of the Government. The project office prepares the decisions and carries out the necessary tasks. In our case, a public strategic development, the requirements of the strategic choices are the followings: a) fact-based as deeply as possible b) comprehensible and communicable c) clear vision of the future d) feasible e) simply reasonable f) loveable (for the future users and tax payers). After an analysis, we elaborate decision support and presentation materials for the project for various levels of DMs. In project management we simultaneously take care of a) the objectives how to be achieved and b) the processes how leading up to. Two main types of methods are used: visual support decision for process management, and the physical (building) model to show targets to achieve.
5.2. Flow modeling The public building construction activity is a multi-threaded, complex process. It is important that employees and sub-specialists can understand their place, role and importance in the whole process and their responsibilities. This motivates them to achieve a higher standard of performance. Therefore, at regular project meetings we present the project progress in all professional fields. For this we use, first of all, a time scheduling software (ProJack Software PlanDoc Inc.). For the strategic decision-makers we present simpler models, like this:
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Fig.4.: Modeling project flow for strategic DM
For setting up the architectural brief of the buildings we use process models that describe the different activities in the building or the paths of visitors as shown on the following picture:
Fig.5.: Modeling building use and logical flows of an exhibitions
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5.3. Modeling system of problems Museum development is a multi-actor process. It is important for all participants to consider clearly how the investment process shall solve (cultural, institutional, financial and technical) problems. For visualizing this, we produce function schemes and problem maps. The following map shows the national museum system functionality and problems even for those who work outside the museum system.
Fig.6.: The museum function scheme
5.4. Decision support with images and models And finally, the most important field of application of the visual decision support tools is benchmarking showing examples of other similar buildings. In strategic thinking the vision of a future state is more important than the road (process) leading to it. Long-term visions are more interesting for the strategic DM than short-term problem solving. Already in this early stage of the public construction project we use the most powerful tool of visual persuasion the physical land and building models. It is literally tangible and effective not only because of its strong visual effect, but also because this wakes up the inner child in the decision maker. The wooden building blocks of the childhood and the construction decisions of the adulthood reinforce each other and prove the importance of the visual decision support.
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6. CONCLUSIONS
As high-level advisors or managers we sell dreams to the Politicians and they resell it to their Electors. Some people adversely see the politicians poring over a building / town model. They do not know about the responsibility and complexity of this type of strategic decision. In addition, the experienced political / strategic decision maker has the right to decide and the capacity for abiding the charge of responsibility and risks. The project team which prepares those decisions has his methodology scientifically approved and his experience on the field to support decisions. Visualization is one of the most important construction project management tools. We observed that visual thinking becomes more and more important due to lack of time and capacity of comprehension in the everyday project management work, especially for the decision making. As Frederick R. Barnard, who had shown the effectiveness of graphics in advertising, said in 1921: One look is worth a thousand words. In this article we presented some modern visual tools and real examples to inspire our colleges to use it more frequently.
REFERENCES
Chaslin, F. 1985. Les Paris de Francois Mitterand. (Mitterand parzs Prizsa) Gallimard, Paris. Csnyi V. 2007. Az emberi viselkeds. (The Human Behaviour.) Sanoma kiad, Budapest Descartes, R. 1900. rtekezs az rzetrl. (Essaie on the senses) Akadmia kiad, Budapest. pp. 100101 Gladwell, M. 2005. sztnsen. (Blink. The Power of Thinking Without Thinking) HVG Kiad, Budapest. pp.711. Keegan, J. 2011. A parancsnokls larca. (The mask of Command) Eurpa Kiad, Budapest pp. 195352. Nyri K., 2000. A gondolkods kpelmlete konferencia alads (The theory of thinking in pictures conference presentation) March, E. J., 2000. Bevezets a dntshozatalba. (Introduction in the decision making) Akadmia Kiad, Budapest. pp. 148159., 233242. Mintzberg, H. et al. 2005. Stratgiai szafari. (Strategy Safari. A Guided Tour) HVG kiad, Budapest. pp. 1926. Simon, H.A. 2000. Korltozott racionalits (Restricted rationality). Akadmia kiad, Budapest. pp.3340. Picture credits: Fig 2.: http://www.raf.mod.uk/rafnortholt/localareainformation/
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TRUST MANAGEMENT ISSUES IN CONSTRUCTION SUPPLY CHAINS

Urszula Ryciuk and Mirosaw Skibniewski1 Biaystok University of Technology, Bialystok, Poland, u.ryciuk@pb.edu.pl
Abstract The issue of trust is particularly important, because it is the primary element of the functioning of individuals, companies and entire societies, as well as one of the fundamental tools possible to use to overcome the impact of the ongoing economic crisis. Trust reduces uncertainty, increases commitment and enhances longevity in supply chain relationships which leads to successful supply chain performance. At the same time there is a gap in research concerning the methods to measure, evaluate and possibly increase trust. The existing research on trust is characterized by a multiplicity of interesting topics, only signalized in the available literature. Simultaneously, despite of the proven importance of trust, a decrease in its level in all areas of economy is observed, including the construction industry, a key player in most national economies. An effort to determine how to increase trust in construction is therefore particularly important. The paper presents the concept of trust management in construction supply chains. Keywords: Construction Supply Chain, interorganizational cooperation, relationships, trust management.
1. INTRODUCTION
Supply Chain Management (SCM) is a relatively new issue in construction industry. In one of the largest and the most important sectors in the global economy. For example, in 2011 the construction sector represented approximately 7% of the Polish Gross Domestic Product. Although most of business relations are based on contracts, contracts and regulations do not fully guarantee the fulfillment of mutual obligations. As the result, the construction industry continues to face chronic problems such as high fragmentation, cost overruns, delays, and lack of sufficient communication among the participants resulting in conflicts and disputes. One viable solution may be closer cooperation between supply chain partners. The cooperation of supply chain partners influences cost reduction, risk sharing, the decisions are being made more quickly, operating costs are decreasing what positively affects the efficiency and competitiveness of individual supply chain members and the whole supply chains and consequently increases customers satisfaction. Emphasis should be placed on
1
Visiting Professor
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building open, based on trust and win-win situation relationships. However, few studies have been conducted to investigate the mechanism of trust. Too little is understood about factors influencing trust and how trust can be measured and managed, especially in consideration of construction supply chain relationships.
2. THE COOPERATION IN SUPPLY CHAINS

2.1. The supply chain theory There is a wide variety of definitions of the term supply chain (SC) and terms similar or used alternatively: logistic chain, logistic network, integrated supply chain, demand network, supply chain network, supply network or extended enterprise. Though, the term supply chain is generally accepted and used the most often, by both theorists and practitioners, the term demand chain is used in order to stress the fact that the chain should be steered by the customer, rather than by suppliers and the word network is used to stress that many suppliers, suppliers of suppliers and many customers and customers of customers form the huge system of sequential flow of the products, information and finances. The terms logistic chain and logistic network are narrower than supply chain and emphasize the logistics functions in supply chain. The main objective of supply chain management is to improve the long-term performance of individual companies in the supply chain and the supply chain as a whole. In order to achieve global benefits, it is necessary to take action leading to the improvement of the processes throughout the entire supply chain. According to Harrison and Hoek (2010) Supply Chain Management (SCM) is the planning and control of all business processes coupling partners in the supply chain in order to meet the needs of end-buyer. At the first step, companies should concentrate their efforts on their internal processes (internal logistic chain), then, as uncoordinated, individual efforts of the companies in the supply chain are less effective, on the coordination and synchronization of the processes with external partners. Coordination means harmonizing and matching of components, activities or strategies and the integration is a process of merging different operations, the elements together with the assumption of a common goal. Harrison and Hoek (2010) believe that the supply chain should be considered as a whole, as a system in which all processes are linked and actions of one company influences the functioning of all actors in the supply chain. Such approach means treating the supply chain as an extended enterprise. In the extended enterprise the priority is the win-win approach, the relationships are close and the processes are managed as it is reasonable from the standpoint of the interests of the whole supply chain.
2.1. The relationships in supply chain The relation can be simply defined as the result of interaction or sequence of interactions between actors. The nature of relation depends on intentional and non-accidental actions
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that occur between actors. Recently, the meaning of relationships with companys stakeholders is increasing. The functioning of companies depends more often now not on themselves but also on their relationships. It is increasingly difficult to act independently and gain and maintain competitive position without establishing relationships with business partners, so it is important to choose the right partners and build long-term and satisfying relationship with them. Relationships in supply chains can be described by the so-called CCC paradigm. According to this paradigm, the chain is an example of the occurrence of three forms of coordination between actors: competition, cooperation and control (hierarchy). Nonetheless, the most common in business reality are hybrid forms situations when control and competition, cooperation and competition or control and cooperation are mixed. According to upicka (2009) it is impossible to clearly determine what relationships exist between actors in supply chain, but cooperation is mostly the result of conscious decision and is limited in scope and duration, while control and competition occur spontaneously. According to Ciesielski (2006), even partnerships can have some aspect of rivalry or control. Competition in the supply chain never completely disappears. As long as the supply chain is composed of separate companies, there is always the risk of opportunistic behavior and tendency to increase ones short-term profits. Disfunctional relationships in the supply chain could have disastrous consequences for all supply chain partners, because the whole supply chain is as strong as its weakest link. An example of an increasing meaning of the relationships in supply chains is the definition of supply chain management by Bozarth and Handfield (2009). These reearchers emphasize the importance of relationships defining the supply chain management as the active management of the activities performed throughout supply chain and the relations between the partners in supply chain in order to maximize added value for the consumer and achieve sustainable competitive advantage. The are many advantages of cooperation in supply chains. Partnership relations reduce uncertainty and the possibility of partners opportunistic behavior, increase the flow of information and knowledge in the supply chain, lead to better communication, cost reduction and consequently increase in customers satisfaction. However, supply chain integration and achieving benefits from cooperation require taking into account the interests of all business partners, sharing confidential information and fair distribution of profits, costs and risk. It should be stressed that cooperation needs trust between partners.
3. THE SPECIFICITY OF CONSTRUCTION SUPPLY CHAIN

According to Xue et al. (2007), a Construction Supply Chain (CSC) consists of all the construction business processes, from the demands by the client, conceptual, design and construction to maintenance, replacement and eventual decommission of building, and organizations, which are involved in the construction process, such as client/owner, designer,
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general contractor, subcontractor or supplier. Vrijhoef and Koskela (2000) refer CSC to the stages through which construction materials factually proceeded before having become a permanent part of a building or other facility. The term covers permanent supply chains, that exist independent of any particular project, and temporary supply chains, configured for a particular project. According to Muya et al. (1999) [in: Xue et al. 2005], there are three types of construction supply chains: the primary supply chain, which delivers the materials that are incorporated into the final construction products; the support chain, which provides equipment and materials that facilitate construction, and the human resource supply chain which involves the supply of labour. As observed by numerous researchers and practitioners, the construction industry, especially when compared with manufacturing industry, is characterized by low productivity, cost and time overruns, conflicts and disputes. Most of those problems are the consequence of construction supply chain characteristics. Construction supply chains are usually very complex because construction projects are carried out by many parties (often hundreds or even thousands). Industry is fragmented and dominated by small companies. In addition, companies which are involved in several projects are part of several supply chains. Every product is unique and clients usually do not repeat orders for work (in contrast to manufacturing where products are distributed to many customers). That is the reason why supply chains are specific and usually differ accordingly to the construction project. Temporariness does not allow developing closer relationships between partners. Adversarial relationships between project participants, together with the traditional clientcontractor mentality are the major source of construction problems (Cheung et al. 2003). Vrijhoef and Koskela (2000) classify problems related to construction supply chain in the three types: those that arise in normal situations, those that are caused in another stage of the construction supply chain than where they were detected, and those cause by obsolete, myopic control of the construction supply chain, characterized by independent control of each stage of the chain. Generally, the main problems related to construction supply chain management (CSCM) could be divided as follows (Xue et al. 2007; Pinho, et al. 2007): attitude-related issues (narrow minded win/lose attitudes and short-term focus, inadequate recognition of the sharing of risks and benefits, fragmented approaches, opportunistic behaviour); quality of information-related issues (poor information quality, inadequate information exchange if partners cannot trust each other, they try to limit the exchange of information as much as possible); financial/cost-related issues (prime focus on bid prices, adversarial relationships); programming/time-related issues (unrealistic program times, unrealistic and uncertain lead time of materials and equipment poor quality/late completion as a result). The problems mentioned above were specified in detail by the Strategic Forum for Construction (2005), which points out mainly problems related to construction supply chain specificity:
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difficulty to identify who benefits with the potential improvements; high fragmented nature of projects and the frequent appeal from bigger companies to sub-contracting smaller ones; seeing a construction job as one of short duration; lack of transparency in costs, decisions are often based on the cash-flow of companies; information not accurate as they should be; lack of trust and confidence of managers on the performance of the supply chain. Lack of overall insight by each construction project partner leads to improvised procedures; each one responsible only for its own work. Sub-contracting leads to complex relationships where no one has an integrated overview of the system requirements and responsibilities are not clearly defined. In the same way, the companies are not committed to completing their work on time, and consequently will not fulfil their professional obligation and meet the agreed deadlines. In recent years, especially in time of economic crisis, the situation in construction industry is even worse. There is tendency to lowering prices and decreasing of the costs. Construction companies to stay competitive are forced to work at the age of profit. However, the emphasis on cost minimization has a destructive impact on project quality and client/investor satisfaction. The prices as the main criteria of suppliers selection do not contribute to supply chain relationships development. The most common are transactional relation (competition) and the exchange of the partners in every project.
5. THE CONCEPT OF TRUST MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTON SUPPLY CHIANS

5.1. The theory of trust Recently, especially in time of economic crisis, both academics and practitioners of management appreciate the role of trust in business relationships development and competitive advantage creating. Some of the factors that have caused the increasing interest of trust concept are: globalization, increased competition, increased specialisation, increasing customer expectations, the growing importance of knowledge and information, or need to ever closer cooperation between companies. At the macroeconomic level, in 1997 S. Knack and P. Keefer proved a strong relationship between trust, which is a key element of social capital and economic growth. The development of the trust theory is therefore essential not only at the level of individual companies and supply chains, but also at the level of societies and economies. The popularity of trust theory is also contrariwise the result of decreasing level of trust in all areas of life. More and more frequently ethical behavior, honesty and integrity is appreciated. For business to last and develop the trust of customers and partners is needed. The greater the integrity, transparency, predictability and corporate social responsibility, the greater the confidence and willingness to cooperate with business partners, even at a lower profitability level. Hence the conclusion that an enterprise should respect the ethics values everyday, because it affects the company performance in a longer perspective.
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The significance of trust was also noticed in construction supply chain management concept. When the relationships are based on trust, the decisions are being made more quickly, operating costs are lowering which positively affects the efficiency and competitiveness of individual supply chain members and the supply chains as a whole. Trust could be defined as a necessity to put ourselves in a situation of uncertainty, relaying on the another partner actions in the hope that he will not behave opportunistically, do not use the weaknesses of the company, but take action that will bring the expected benefits. Trust is also the assessment of the probability of successful enforcement actions by the partner. It is a faith that partner has specific skills and is able to use it properly. The higher that probability is, the higher the willingness of other companies to cooperate with that entity.
5.1. Trust management in supply chains Trust management in supply chain is a process of partner identification and its assessment in terms of possibility of trust development, trust measurement (estimation), trust building and development and trust control through collecting evidence of trust and distrust. Trust level should be measured and modified e.g. through factors influencing trust. One of the conditions of trust development could be the possibility of future cooperation. If there is no such perspective, a given entity might not care about relationship development (Ryciuk, 2009). Trust is a complex construct with multiple bases, levels and determinants. It is dynamic, always growing or diminishing. Trust usually occurs in certain conditions and changes over time as partners experience is changing. If so, the activities between supply chain partners could increase or decrease the level of trust. Knowing factors which are the most important in trust development one could manage the trust (Ryciuk, 2009). It is a noteworthy fact that trust evolves over time through working with other supply chain members, but does not develop automatically as a consequence of long-term relationship. The entities, to manage trust in supply chains, should understand trust building process, gain knowledge of the factors influencing trust, conditions of trust development and methods of trust measurement. Trust is built and developed over time. At the beginning of the cooperation an initial level of trust is available. The level of initial trust depends on e.g. earlier experience of cooperation with that or other partners or the reputation of the partner. At the next stages, as time passes, trust level in relationship is usually changing. Factors that influence trust more are e.g.: promises keeping, reciprocity, mutual understanding, problem solving, no blame culture or satisfaction with the existing relationship (Ryciuk, 2009). The authors continue with their research in which the main objective is to develop the model of interorganizational trust management in Construction Supply Chains. The specific objectives include a synthesis of studies in the field of trust, interorganizational relationships and trust management in supply chains; identification and analysis of factors affecting the interorganizational trust in the supply chains in construction; analysis of the relationship between the level of trust and achieving the benefits of cooperation, as well as the interorganizational
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relationship development; diagnosis of the interorganizational trust in Construction Supply Chains in Poland and development of guidelines for the measurement, evaluation, and intentional shaping of the interorganizational trust in supply chains in construction.
6. CONCLUSIONS
Recent years increased the importance of trust as a factor affecting the competitiveness of enterprises. At the same time there is a gap in research concerning methods to measure, evaluate and possibly increase trust. The subject of trust management is now particularly important, because it is the primary element of the functioning of individuals, companies and entire societies, as well as a tool possible to use to overcome the ongoing economic crisis. Simultaneously, despite of the proven importance of trust, a decrease in its level in all areas of economic activity is observed, including construction. An effort to determine how to increase trust in construction industry supply chains is therefore particularly important. Our efforts continue to develop practical tools for measuring the levels of trust in construction supply chain relationships and their impacts on construction company and project performance.
REFERENCES
Cheung, S. O., Ng, T. S. T., Wong, S. P., Suen, H. C. H., 2003. Behavioral aspects in construction partnering. International Journal of Project Management. Vol. 21, No. 5, pp. 333343. Ciesielski, M., 2006. Logistics in business, PWE Publishers, Warsaw (in Polish) Harrison, A., Hoek, R., 2010. Logistical management, PWE Publishers, Warsaw (in Polish) Knack, S., Keefer, P., 1997. Does Social Capital Have Economic Payoff? A Cross-County Investigation. Quarterly Journal of Economics. Vol. 112, No. 4, pp. 12511288. upicka, A., 2009. Forms of market coordination in supply chains, Academy of Economics Publishers, Poznan (in Polish) Pinho, T., Telhada, J., Carvalho, M. S., 2007. Definition of a Supply Chain Management model in construction case study. Proceedings IGLC-15, Michigan, USA. Ryciuk, U., 2010. The concept of trust management in supply chains, in: E. Pawowski (eds.), Operations and logistics management, Publishing House of Poznan University of Technology, Poznan, pp. 55163. Ryciuk, U., 2009. Trust in supply chains on the example of construction industry, in: K. Grzybowska, A. Stachowiak (eds.) Integration of supply chains modeling, partnership and management, Publishing House of Poznan University of Technology, Poznan, pp. 111121. Sulejewicz, A., 1997. Strategic partnership: modeling of cooperation among businesses. SGH-Warsaw School of Economics Publishers, Warsaw (in Polish) R. Vrijhoef, L. Koskela, (2000) The four roles of supply chain management in construction, European Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management, Vol. 6. Xue, X., Wang, Y., Shen, Q., Yu, X., 2007. Coordination mechanisms for construction supply chain management in the Internet environment. International Journal of Project Management. Vol. 25, Issue: 2, pp. 150157.
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DEVELOPMENT AND REFURBISHMENT OF ENERGY-EFFICIENT RESIDENTIAL DISTRICTS BASED ON COLLECTIVE SELF-ORGANISED HOUSING PROCESSES
Rizal Sebastian TNO Expertise Centre for Building and Civil Engineering, Delft, The Netherlands, rizal.sebastian@tno.nl
Abstract Collective Self-Organised (CSO) housing is an emerging and rapidly increasing trend in Europe. The CSO housing is the process through which a group of homeowners purchase a piece of land or existing properties; procure professional companies for design, construction and maintenance; and directly manage the project from planning until delivery and use. This process reflects a bottom-up approach in the construction market based on the end-users awareness and commitment to a sustainable built environment. It demonstrates a great potential for realising and managing energy-efficient buildings at a district scale. Many local governments are working to stimulate CSO housing in the next decade, especially by promoting energy-efficient building projects that are affordable for most people. Unfortunately, there are still barriers that hold back the market expansion of energy-efficient CSO housing projects. Most importantly is the lack of business model to organise the endusers and the local Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to generate and implement a district (re)development plan. A novel business model is crucial to tackle the existing challenges, such as: the lack of access to land and finance; the overly bureaucratic planning systems; and the absence of a local Energy Services Company (ESCO) in the process of defining and achieving energy-efficiency goals. This paper especially addresses the conference topic of green design and construction. It describes a plan for an EU collaborative research project to propose and practically validate a new network business model, which enables the end-users, SMEs, and ESCOs together to develop or refurbish an energy-efficient district through the CSO housing process. The research plan includes 4 demonstration cases of an eco-cohousing project in the UK, CSO housing projects in the Netherlands, and sustainable refurbishment projects in Hungary and Czech Republic. The research plan will be carried out within EU FP7 programme. Keywords: green design and construction, energy-efficient buildings, Collective SelfOrganised (CSO) housing, network business model, Energy Services Companies (ESCOs).
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1. INTRODUCTION
Until now, a large number of innovative energy-efficient building (EeB) technologies and services, which have been developed and provided by Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), have not been taken up by the market. This is due to the fact that these innovations can only be optimised if integrated with other products and services, but individual SMEs cannot realise such a system and process of integration alone. A single SME often has too little capacity and too small operational scale to serve a large number of dwellings at the district scale, especially in terms of lifecycle supports or after-sales services. In order to create new business opportunities for SMEs in energy-efficient building sector, a new market opportunity needs to be further explored. Collective self-organised (CSO) housing is an emerging trend in Europe and offers the SMEs a new opportunity as the key market player. In order to exploit this new market, the creation of a novel business model is crucial. This paper describes a plan for an EU collaborative research project to establish a new network business model, which enables the end-users, SMEs, and local Energy Services Companies (ESCOs) together to develop or refurbish an energy-efficient district through the CSO housing process. This paper especially addresses the conference topic of green design and construction. In the next section, the CSO housing as a new large market opportunity for energy-efficient buildings is analysed. Subsequently, a selection of innovative technology solutions for energy-efficient buildings is reviewed. A special attention is given to the need for a new or an optimised business case for the SMEs to exploit these solutions in the new market. Based on the analysis of the market opportunity and the available technology solutions, the research plan to develop novel SME network business models is presented. This research plan is based on the FP7 collaborative research project titled PROFICIENT, which will commence in late 2012. The four building projects which are used as demonstration cases are presented in the following section. In the final section, the progress beyond the state-of-the-art is concluded and the future impacts are identified.
2. COLLECTIVE SELF-ORGANISED HOUSING

Collective self-organised (CSO) housing is the process through which a group of homeowners purchase a piece of land or existing properties; procure professional companies for design, construction and maintenance; and directly manage the project from planning until delivery and use (Dammers et al., 2007). The CSO housing process contains great potential for realising and maintaining energy-efficient buildings and districts. The demand for CSO processes is increasing along with the improving strength of self-managing capacity in a knowledge-based European society. In CSO process, the deep and long-term impact of energy-efficient buildings is best guaranteed by the end-users own awareness and commitment to a sustainable built environment.
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Among the current examples, the UK has recently launched a policy and action plan to double the share of self-organised development from 12% to 25% in a decade (NaSBA, 2011). In the Netherlands, the share will be increased from 18% to approximately 30% (Boelens et al., 2010). In most other EU15 countries and Norway, self-organised housing will exceed 50% of the new dwellings delivered to the market. In many EU12 countries, self-organised refurbishment has also been aligned with privatisation policy. Homeowner groups are encouraged to self-organise the maintenance and retrofitting of dwellings and districts to maintain and improve the quality of privatised housing stock. The CSO processes reflect a bottom-up approach in the construction market. Many local governments consider self-organised housing as the best way to improve and maintain the quality of new or refurbished districts and respectively the city economy by attracting capable and committed inhabitants, who are looking for more freedom in the creation of their sustainable living environment. CSO housing opens a new market segment for SME business creation at a large scale. The clients and end-users are seeking direct and flexible collaborations with SMEs. While the project ideas, plans and buildings are taking shape incrementally, SMEs become involved in a collaborative relationship with the end-users and with the other businesses. Self-organised housing, including CSO, is the new volume housing solution (NaSBA, 2008). However, there are still main barriers that hold back the market expansion of CSO, especially in the field of sustainable and energy-efficient buildings, namely: lack of a business mechanism, including the non-existence of a common business model; no or little involvement of local ESCOs in the process of defining and achieving energyefficiency goals; overly complex and too bureaucratic planning systems, regulatory burdens and lack of access to land and finance; initial cost often considered as the largest barrier to investment in EeB, especially for extensive retrofits.
3. AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS FOR ENERGY-EFFICIENT BUILDINGS AND DISTRICTS

There are a large number of SME-driven technologies and services for energy-efficient buildings available, but many of them have not been able to create a wide impact on the market. These solutions can be recognised in 2 groups: New technologies or services well-tested, production-eligible or already demonstrated which cannot be marketed yet due to the lack of a business case for market exploitation. Most prototypes in this category are based on spin-offs from R&D projects by research organisations. New business cases for SMEs should be developed to exploit these solutions and to become more competitive in the market.
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Existing technologies or services from SMEs that have already been marketed, but require a further improvement or upgrading together with an optimised business case to achieve a larger level of success. Several examples of the available solutions are as follows. Faade retrofit module ReFlex (Croese et al., 2008). A proven prototype named ReFlex Module can give extra volume to the faade of post-war multi-family row houses, which are typically too small for modern living standards. The ReFlex Module is a new flexible retrofitting method that does not require extra foundation, which extends the life of dwellings that may otherwise be destined for demolition. ReFlex allows new technical installations to be integrated in the module. It adds extra floor space and volume to the dwelling while upgrading the quality of the faade and building utilities at the same time for much higher energy efficiency. An optimised and SME-driven business case is urgently needed to assure market success of ReFlex as an industrialised solution that is particularly suited for large-scale district retrofitting while allowing for tailor-made design considerations. Rooftop retrofit module SuRE-Fit (http://www.sure-fit.eu/). The technological concept of energy-efficient rooftop retrofitting was established in the recently completed EU project titled SuRE-FIT (Sustainable Roof Extension Retrofit), aimed at consolidating roof top extension retrofits for multi-family housing and the development of process models and tailor-made guidelines for broader implementation of this innovative solution. A preceding feasibility study shows that 13.7 million dwellings belong to the potential market of the SuRE-Fit concept; this is approximately 6% of the EU housing stock. The potential energy saving is estimated at 120,000 GWh per year. A new SME-driven business case is expected to capture the potential market and impact. It should maximise the participation of local SMEs in combination with a process model that supports a CSO-approach to housing retrofitting. The new business case needs to be aligned with an innovative ESCO business plan to offer the best opportunities for large-scale market introduction. Integrated systems and services for IFD buildings (Di Giulio et al., 2005). An innovative modular building system, including the integrated processes and services, was developed within the EU collaborative research project IFD-Buildings. The IndustrialFlexible-and-Demountable (IFD) modular system, mainly based on the pre-assembling of standard components, is able to significantly increase the design and functional flexibility, and to allow homeowners to customise the technical components and solutions. The IFD system is based on a collaborative organisational model and a communication/ information system that delivers client-oriented buildings, which can be tailored to their
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specific budget, function and performance requirements. Hence, an optimised business case for the SMEs becomes a necessity to apply the technology innovation by involving the whole building process, from the design to the delivery stage. The optimised business case will bring about changes to the traditional role of the building contractor and will allow the development of new process models based on collective self-organised processes.
4. DEVELOPMENT OF SME NETWORK BUSINESS MODELS

The new and optimised SME-driven business cases for the available technologies and services for energy-efficient buildings contain the following objectives: 1) to achieve market growth of more than 10% per year within the next decade; and 2) to implement a flexible approach to analyse, combine or integrate the most suitable solutions from a broad possibility of options to meet the client/end-users performance requirements according to the local environment. In order to achieve these objectives, a comprehensive business model that contains the business cases for various solutions needs to be established. Since the new business models aim to enable different SMEs to collaborate in strengthening their market position together, the network economy business is used as the underlying concept. In this concept, valuechain integration takes place between loosely-coupled businesses (Dubois et al., 2001). This is the most relevant concept that suits the nature of the housing/construction sector, which has the dominant number of SMEs. Based on this new business model, an SME network of joint product-service providers of energy-efficient building solutions will be established. The SME network is an interactive platform which functions as a one-stop shop for collective clients in the CSO housing market. The network consists of SME preferred suppliers, including designers, engineers, manufacturers, maintenance and operation firms, process advisors, and ESCOs. The SME members from the network can flexibly team up with the most qualified partners according to the clients needs and project configuration. As a team, they become competitive and able to jointly provide integrated technologies and services for district-scale energy-efficient building projects. Two types of business models will be elaborated in order to deal with the different characteristics of new construction and retrofit projects at the district scale. In order to be successful in practice, the new business models require supporting tool sets that cover the finance, performance assessment and monitoring, and ICT aspects. Collective funding schemes are essential to ensure the soundness of the new business models (Parker, 2010). The significant enlargement of SMEs market share in the CSO housing market depends on such stimulating instruments. Furthermore, the SME network requires an adequate information and communication technology (ICT), for instance a Semantic Web emarketplace that serves as the virtual business and project environment where homeowners and SMEs can interactively develop design solutions while negotiating the planning, financial capacity, and available products and services. Semantic mediation between loosely-coupled information models in service-oriented architecture is the new key factor in inter-operability
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of business applications (Barnickle, 2008). On this innovative ICT platform, Building Information Modelling (BIM) will play an important role to engage clients/end-users, SMEs, financial institutions, local authorities, and other businesses in an interactive design process. Open-source solutions should be provided, so that different actors from the architectural, structural and MEP/HVAC engineering disciplines can use their own software tools and business applications (Sebastian, 2010).
5. DEMONSTRATION CASES
Prior to the large-scale implementation at European level, the viability of the new business models and supporting tools needs to be demonstrated and tested. For this purpose, within the PROFICIENT collaborative research project, four ongoing energy-efficient building projects in practice will be used as demonstration cases. Within these demonstration cases, the action research method will be employed while the interplay between different elements of the business model and the policy environment will be assessed. The practical validation of the process and business models and the supporting tools will be done by engaging the project stakeholders together with the SMEs to form a Community of Practice (CoP) at and around the demonstration cases. The demonstration cases are as follows. The Ecological Cohousing project at Forge Bank, Halton, Lancaster, UK is new construction of an energy-efficient residential district based on the cohousing approach. The project consists of private homes, community facilities, workshops/offices and shared outdoor space. The project is designed based on the highest ecological values. The CO2 neutral district project at Erasmusveld, The Hague, The Netherlands is new construction of a CO2 or climate neutral and energy-positive residential district based on selforganised housing. The district is expected to be capable to generate its own energy based on natural and clean energy sources, such as geothermal, solar energy and wind energy. The generated energy is used for the houses and the facilities within the district. Water is purified in the area and the green in the district helps in generating energy. Innovative solutions are also used for waste processing, transportation, parking and logistics. The masterplan development was started in late 2007 supported by the Municipality of The Hague, and the project is currently in the implementation stage. The sustainable refurbishment project of Raab-Sol in Gyr, Hungary is concerned with the sustainable refurbishment project of 10 high-rise prefabricated-panel buildings with 325 dwelling units. The project is carried out based on the cooperation between the homeowners, the tenants, the local housing cooperative, and the municipal government. The total cost of the project is 22 million euros. There is a plan to expand the project to include 63 high-rise buildings with 1,683 dwelling units, which are concentrated in two districts of the city. The municipality and the central government contribute to the program through several grant arrangements.
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The Green Savings programme Zelen sporm in Czech Republic focuses on the support for heating installations utilising renewable energy sources but also investment in energy savings in new and retrofit buildings. The programme aims to improve the quality of thermal insulation of family houses and multiple-family buildings; to replace the environmentally unfriendly heating system with the low-emission biomass-fired boilers and efficient heat pumps; and to install solutions to meet the passive energy standard. The state provides bank guarantees and subsidies the mortgage for the sustainable building projects.
6. CONCLUDING REMARKS
This paper describes a plan for EU collaborative research project to establish a strategy to develop and implement a new SME network business model for energy-efficient residential districts based on the collective self-organised housing processes. The research project, titled PROFICIENT, is expected to commence in late 2012 for the duration of 4 years. At the project completion, the expected progress beyond the state-of-the art can be concluded as follows. The new business models are leading towards the realisation of the next generation energy-efficient buildings, which includes the following paradigm shifts: 1) from a top-down to a bottom-up process; 2) from demonstration projects to volume market; 3) from individual building to district level; 4) from technology-oriented to user/performance/impact-oriented; and 4) from energy-saving and energy-efficiency measures to energy-neutral and towards energy-positive and CO2-neutral residential buildings and districts. The novel process and business concepts allow the end-users to be directly involved in all lifecycle housing processes. The SME network business concept is the most effective solution for value-chain integration in an SME-dominated sector like construction, while maintaining the economic flexibility of the whole market and the individual players. The impact will turn most CSO housing into energy-efficient building projects that are affordable for most European citizens and to comply with EU policy on sustainable knowledge society. The performance-based approach ensures the technology solutions and services to be future proof by incorporating the changing end-users requirements and aspirations over time. The benefit of the collective implementation in a CSO housing project can be maximised by appropriately integrating the existing technology and services. The integrated solutions are supplied, installed, and maintained by SME network, so that the end-users no longer have to rely on the partial solutions supplied by different companies independently. The next generation of e-marketplace based on a user-friendly Semantic Web technology serves as the ICT enabler and integrator for the end-users and the. Within the e-marketplace, open-source Building Information Modelling (BIM) is used for integrated design, engineering, procurement, as well as maintenance and operation support during the buildings lifecycle. These project results will contribute to the future impacts in terms of:
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market adoption of new energy-efficient solutions by increasing their market share by 10% per year measured on the basis of each technology; value-chain integration in the construction sector and strengthening European SMEs in response to economic crisis by increasing their profitability and reducing the project risks through the network business approach; boosting the transformation towards low carbon cities by enabling economic, organisational and social economic solutions.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This paper describes the 4-year work plan of the PROFICIENT collaborative research project, co-funded by the European Commission within the FP7 programme. The main author, Dr. Rizal Sebastian, is the Project Coordinator and he represents the project consortium that consists of 17 partners.
REFERENCES
Barnickle, N., 2008. Semantic Mediation between Loosely-Coupled Information Models in Service Oriented Architectures. Proceedings of Xinnovations Workshop in Berlin, 2224 September 2008. pp. [electronic proceedings]. Boelens, L., Bolt, G., Boonstra, B., Brouwer, J., Hooimeijer, P., and Nonnekes, N., 2010. Self Build in the Netherlands: 10 years of Experiments. SEV, Rotterdam. [Original title in Dutch: Zelf Bouwen in Nederland: 10 Jaar Experimenteren]. Croese, E. and Zandveld-Puijk, C., 2008. Extra Body for Porch Houses. TNO Magazine, June 2008, pp. 10. [Original title in Dutch: Extra Body voor Portiekwoningen]. Dammers, E., Plsdttir, H.L, Broek, L. van den, Klemm, W., Tisma, A., Bijlsma, L. 2007. Self-Organised Process in Residential Building Sector. NAi Uitgevers, Rotterdam. [Original title in Dutch: Particulier Opdrachtgeverschap in de Woningbouw]. Di Giulio, R., Coccagna, M., Brand, G.J. van den, and Kiang, L.Q., 2005. IFD Buildings as Design and Delivery Innovation. Proceedings of 22ndInternational Symposium on Automation and Robotics in Construction (ISARC) in Ferrara, 1114 September 2005, pp. 15. Dubois, A. and Gadde, L.E., 2001. The Construction Industry as a Loosely Coupled System: Implications for Productivity and Innovativity. Proceedings of 17th IMP Conference in Oslo, 911 September 2001, pp. 120. NaSBA, 2008. Self Build as a Volume Housing Solution. NaSBA, Chippenham. NaSBA, 2011. An Action Plan to Promote the Growth of Self Build Housing. NaSBA, Chippenham. Parker, P. (ed.), 2010. From Demonstration Projects to Volume Market. IEA SHC Task 37, Trondheim. Sebastian, R., 2010. Integrated Design and Engineering using BIM: A Pilot Project of Small-Scale Housing Development in the Netherlands. Architectural Engineering and Design Management, Vol. 6, pp. 103110. SuRE-FIT: Intelligent Energy Europe. http://www.sure-fit.eu/ . Last visited on 28 March 2012.
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INTEGRATED SEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CODES AND THE REAL LIFE PRACTICE
Zvonko Sigmund Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia, zsigmund@grad.hr Mladen Radujkovi, Damir Lazarevi Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Abstract Earthquake Engineering emerged during the time from 1910 to 1930's, resulting with first building codes which included earthquake activities as loads. Seismic engineering need was triggered by devastating earthquakes in Northern California, and Messina Italy. Since then, and especially during the last decades, earthquake engineering has increasingly advanced ever changing the norms and building codes. By now the preventive measures of earthquake risk mitigation have drastically evolved suggesting protection not only for new buildings, but also for the existing ones which make the majority of our surrounding built world. The article is the introduction into a larger research program seeking to close the huge gap between the newest advances in preventive earthquake engineering measures for existing buildings and a successful implementation of earthquake hazard mitigation policies. This article is a short overview of the latest international preventive earthquake norms and regulations for existing buildings, focusing on the positive examples of implementation and application of the same managing complex challenges by balancing technology, organization, design and economy. Successfully implemented earthquake mitigation practices for existing buildings developed after larger earthquakes are presented and compared focusing on the implementation type and execution plan. Keywords: Earthquake hazard implementation, comparison. mitigation, existing buildings, seismic regulations
1. INTRODUCTION
Earthquake engineering has increasingly advanced ever changing the norms and building codes. By now the preventive measures of earthquake risk mitigation have drastically evolved suggesting protection not only for new buildings, but also for the existing ones which make the majority of our surrounding built world. There is a growing global momentum to
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address the seismic (earthquake) resistance of older existing buildings that may not meet the stricter requirements of current building codes for seismic loading and design of new buildings (Sundararaj, Foo et al. 2004). However earthquake mitigation measures for existing buildings are rarely implemented into earthquake mitigation policies (Alesch and Petak 2002). This paper is presenting and comparing successfully implemented earthquake mitigation policies of Switzerland, USA and Canada. For the simplicity of the organizational structures of the policies regulating earthquake mitigation measures only earthquake mitigation policies for nationally owned buildings is presented.
2. EARTHQUAKE MITIGATION POLICIES

2.1. Switzerland and SIA 2018 Swiss Society of Engineers and Architects have developed a 3 stage federal building evaluation process. This process as a result has a list of prioritized federally owned buildings that are sorted by the descending order of priorities for increasing the earthquake resilience. The standard was designed for evaluation of federally owned buildings of the building class 2 and 3 in seismic zones 2 and 3. The building classes 2 and 3 include buildings that are characterized by: large public gatherings, goods of particular value, important or vital infrastructure functions, limited and/or considerable environmental risk. (SIA 2003)
2.1.1. The beginning The earthquake resistant design was introduced to Switzerland quite late, since the earthquake risk was estimated as low. The SIA 160 norm dating from 1970 was the first Swiss building norm which introduced the rules for earthquake capable building design introducing horizontal loads as replacement for the real earthquake forces. (SIA 1970) The norms introduced in 1989, the SIA 160 Norm Actions on Structures, introduced a more stringent earthquake design. These are now used for design of new buildings. (SIA 1989) 90% of the existing buildings were built by the time new SIA 160 norms were introduced. These buildings werent designed to cope with the earthquake forces, and therefore the earthquake of such buildings is unknown. It might be that the bearing capacity of these buildings is not satisfactory.
2.1.2. The mission During the year 2000 the Federal Office for Environment of Switzerland has received a task to make an inventory of the federally owned buildings by the year 2004. The buildings of
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construction class 2 and 3 in seismic areas 2 and 3 were supposed to be categorized, and their earthquake vulnerability should have been checked. The Federal Office for Environment decided to develop a 3 staged concept of the building vulnerability estimation and building mitigation prioritization process.
2.1.3. The execution The building safety evaluation according to SIA 2018 standards is divided into 3 steps with the main goal of time and funds preservation. Therefore is the 1st step of the evaluation process designed to consume the least time and expert knowledge. The whole evaluation process is described by steps below: 1) Step 1: For this step a check-list was created which is designed to conclude the risk evaluation with a risk value. The check-list can be completed just after studying the architectural plans and after building walkthrough while checking the most important building constructive elements. (Time consumption: up to 4 hours) 2) Step 2: In this step just the buildings with a high risk are rechecked. The recheck is conducted based on civil engineering design and by checking critical structural points aided with a questionnaire and simple engineering equations. The questionnaire is structured to cover the common structure types. The process is relatively simple and therefore the results are not as accurate as in the step 3. (Time consumption: up to 4 hours) 3) Step 3: The step 3 should result with a definitive statement about the earthquake safety of the building based on dynamic simulations. The strengthening recommendations are designed in this step, if necessary. The norm SIA 2018 (2004) serves as the basis for the evaluation stage 3. Based on the compliance factor eff and the efficiency criteria of the strengthening measures the norm suggests whether the building can be strengthened or can the existing condition be accepted. (see Fig.1)
Figure 1: The compliance factors (red minimum; blue advised) in respect to the expected life span
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The evaluation has two main decision making standpoints. One is considering the safety of the people inhabiting the building as unacceptable, and the other one is opposite. If the earthquake security of the building is not acceptable strengthening is advised. The costs of the strengthening measures are limited to approximate cost of saving action in case of an earthquake which is 100 mil. CHF per person. If the strengthening cost is within the estimated cost of a human life, the strengthening is to be conducted. If these measures are not possible for a reasonable price, the building safety as is can be accepted.
2.2. Canada and the Policy on Seismic Resistance of Existing Buildings The National Building Code of Canada does not apply retroactively to older buildings, and therefore there is a clear need for a duly diligent approach for Canadian building owners. It was with this in mind that PWGSC, as knowledgeable owner and manager of a significant amount of federal building infrastructure, created a Guideline in 1998 to allow for a more consistent approach to dealing with existing buildings. This was subsequently adopted as a Policy on Seismic Resistance of Existing Buildings in 2001, (Sundararaj, Balazic et al. 2001) . Key elements include incorporating seismic considerations in major renovations of PWGSC crown-owned buildings in moderate to high seismic zones, and gathering basic information about each building through seismic screenings.
2.2.1. The beginning Creation of this Policy was a process that begun in 1997/1998 with internal discussions within the National Structures Discipline meetings of Architectural and Engineering Services, bringing together the varied inputs of Regional engineers. A key concern was the lack of a consistent approach to dealing with seismic deficiencies in building infrastructure. A draft Policy was prepared and released as a Guideline to begin with in late 1998, the reservation being the cost implications for the PWGSC program. This was followed by a legal review of a duly diligent approach to be taken by the owner, which finally resulted in bringing all stakeholders to the table to finalize a formal policy.
2.2.2. The mission The Policys scope applies to crown-owned buildings currently in or to be added to the custody of PWGSC, in zones of moderate to high seismicity. Moderate to high is defined as an effective Seismic Zone between 2 to 6 as defined in the NRC Guidelines Guidelines for the Seismic Evaluation of Existing Buildings.
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When Significant Projects are being planned for existing buildings located in zones of moderate to high seismicity, a detailed seismic assessment is mandated to be conducted in the project planning stage. A project is considered significant under any of the following conditions: I) when the interior finishes are planned to be stripped for substantial wings or floors; II) there will be a change of intended use of the facility as per the NBCC, such as from office to warehouse, etc.; III) there will be significant weight added to the existing building such as the addition of one or multiple floors; IV) key seismic resistance elements such as walls, braces or sections of the building, will be removed or modified; V) the project costs are at or above 50% of replacement costs for the building. The policy requires federal building projects to be in full seismic compliance with current local by-laws and provincial/territorial building codes in addition to the NBCC, where such requirements exist. Where the detailed seismic assessment finds the buildings seismic resistance does not meet 60% of the seismic load requirement for new building construction as specified by the current NBCC, seismic upgrading of the main structure is required. Upgrade options and approaches are to be investigated, so as to upgrade the seismic resistance of the main structure to the 60% or higher level. Consideration shall be given to upgrade the building to full current NBCC requirements or higher. Incorporation of practical aspects of the building alteration is to be carefully considered. New and emerging technologies are also to be carefully considered. Upgrade options for non-structural items are also to be investigated. Options, cost estimates and recommended seismic upgrading approaches are to be documented.
2.2.3. The execution Whether major renovations are planned or not, basic Seismic Screenings shall be conducted on all buildings in zones of moderate to high seismicity per available manuals, NRC Manual for Screening of Buildings for Seismic Investigation (NRC and IRC 1993). For buildings in PWGSCs custody, screening results are to be included in each buildings long-term Asset Management Plan. Results are to be used in the investment analysis planning process on a building-specific and portfolio-wide basis. For buildings that have not been subject to an earlier seismic screening, such a screening will be completed as part of the input to the completion of the next Asset Management Plan for the building. These screenings are part of the operation and maintenance activity and are to be funded out of the buildings existing annual budget using the Building Condition Report and Building Management Plan process. Seismic screening of buildings in zones of moderate to high seismicity that are not yet within the custody of PWGSC shall be completed prior to a final agreement to acquire the facility. For a building with a confirmed Structural Priority Index SPI through this procedure of greater than 30, a detailed seismic assessment is mandatory and must be completed within a reasonable period and not later than the subsequent fiscal year after confirmation of the SPI. A seismic database for the PWGSC building inventory is to be maintained, including such
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information as base building information; screening and/or detailed evaluation information; scope/cost of seismic improvements where done; and mission-criticality information.
2.3 USA and Standards of Seismic Safety for Federally Owned and Leased Buildings (ICSSC RP6) The intent of the Standards of Seismic Safety for Federally Owned and Leased Buildings (NIST 2002) is to provide Federal agencies with common minimum and higher standards for the evaluation and mitigation of seismic risks in their owned or leased buildings, and privately owned buildings on Federal land to ensure that all agencies have a balanced, agencyconceived and controlled seismic safety program. The Standards allow for two levels of seismic performance: a minimum Life-Safety level intended to provide a low risk of earthquake induced life safety endangerment and a higher Immediate Occupancy level, intended to minimize the risk of earthquake-induced impairment of mission, recommended for critical facilities. The Standards build upon previous efforts by the Interagency Committee on Seismic Safety in Construction (ICSSC) in support of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). This document supersedes the Interagency Committee on Seismic Safety in Construction's Standards of Seismic Safety for Existing Federally Owned or Leased Buildings and Commentary (RP 4).
2.3.1. The beginning In 1994, the President signed Executive Order 12941, Seismic Safety of Existing Federally Ownedor Leased Buildings (FEMA 1995). The order adopted minimum technical standards for all future seismic safety evaluation and rehabilitation projects for Federally owned and leased buildings. In addition, the order called for all agencies and departments owning or leasing buildings to develop a seismic inventory of their owned and leased buildings, and to estimate the costs of mitigating unacceptable seismic risks in that inventory. The order directs the Interagency Committee on Seismic Safety in Construction (ICSSC) to issue guidance on how to develop the inventory and cost estimate.
2.3.2. The mission The primary objective of the Standards is to reduce the life-safety risk to occupants of Federal buildings and to the public. Life-Safety is the minimum performance level appropriate for Federal buildings. In addition, this Standards provide for a higher level of performance, commonly referred to as Immediate Occupancy, when needed to meet agency mission requirements (NIST 2002).
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2.3.3. The execution By this Standard all owned buildings are to be listed in the inventory database and screened into exempt and non-exempt categories, and to develop estimates of the cost of mitigating unacceptable risks. Exempt Buildings are those which meet the criteria for exemption. The seismic risk in these buildings is expected to be very low, such that seismic rehabilitation would not be necessary. Additionally, buildings may be exempted if they will no longer be used by any branch of the Federal government in five years, because they are scheduled to be abandoned, demolished, sold, or otherwise removed from government service. Non-Exempt Buildings are those which do not meet the criteria for exemption. The level of seismic risk in these buildings is not immediately apparent; the fact that they are not eligible for exemption means that they cannot be readily identified as presenting very low risk. The Standards allow for two levels of seismic performance: a minimum Life-Safety level and a higher Immediate Occupancy level: Life-Safety Level: Building performance that includes significant damage to both structural and nonstructural components during the design earthquake, though at least some margin against either partial or total structural collapse remains. Injuries may occur, but the level of risk for life-threatening injury and entrapment is low. People will likely be unable to reoccupy the building for continuous use until structural repairs are completed. Immediate Occupancy Level: Building performance that includes very limited damage to both structural and nonstructural components during the design earthquake. The basic vertical and lateral-force-resisting systems retain nearly all of their pre-earthquake strength and stiffness. The level of risk for life-threatening injury as a result of damage is very low. Although some minor repairs may be necessary, the building can be fully occupied after a design earthquake, and the needed repairs may be completed while the building is occupied. Seismic risk mitigation program consists of active and passive components. Active components of a seismic risk mitigation program specifically require some action to be taken, such as inventory, evaluation, planning for rehabilitation and the rehabilitation itself. The focus of passive components is on changes to the building which increase its life of value or will increase the risk level of the building, such as a change in occupancy. The philosophy of the use of triggers is to achieve safety similar to a new building when renovating an old building, resulting with gradual overall seismic risk reduction. Exception to the passive triggers to the building renovation process is when a building is evaluated with exceptionally high risk level. In that case the earthquake risk mitigation process is being planned immediately.
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3. COMPARISON
In the table 1 (below) the three policies mentioned in this paper are compared.
Switzerland; SIA 2018 Euro code 8 (prEN 1998-3) Canada NEHRP Handbook for Seismic Evaluation of Existing Buildings (FEMA 1992-1) FEMA 310: Handbook for Seismic evaluation of Buildings Legal Basis Paulay T., Priestly M.J.N.: Seismic Design of Reinforced Concrete and Masonry Buildings FOEN: Assessing the seismic safety of existing buildings and design guidelines, level 1 and 2 FOEN: Directive principles for the establishment and use of micro zonation studies in Switzerland Only federal buildings of specific building importance situated in specific regions Applied Technology Council of Redwood Canada: ATC-22 & ATC-21 National Building Code of Canada (NBC, 1990) USA; ICSSC RP6 Standards of Seismic Safety for Existing Federally Owned or Leased Buildings and Commentary (ICSSC -RP 4) Handbookfor the Seismic Evaluation of Buildings A Prestandard (FEMA 310) NEHRP Handbookfor the Seismic Evaluation of Existing Buildings (FEMA 178) Prestandard and Commentary for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings (FEMA 356)
Uniform Code for Building Conservation, 1991
Buildings of interest
Buildings of federal interest owned by PWGSC, but can be used for private buildings as well
All federally owned or leased buildings
Who is responsible for the evaluation? How is the evaluation conducted?
By government hired and/or educated personnel and companies In 3 stages: 1-initial evaluation 2-additional more detailed evaluation 3-detailed evaluation +strengthening suggestion Within 5-10 years in accordance with the list of prioritized buildings
PWGSC
In 2 stages: 1-initial evaluation 2-complete construction investigation + strengthening cost evaluation
Federal agencies owning, or leasing the specific buildings 1 stage: Complete construction investigation + strengthening cost evaluation
When is the strengthening conducted?
Immediately or gradually according to the PWGSC internal plan of priorities
Immediately or when other changes to the building are planned
Table 1: Comparison of the earthquake hazard mitigation policies from Switzerland, Canada and USA
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3. CONCLUSIONS
Earthquake mitigation is becoming ever greater task of engineers all over the world in earthquake prone countries. Means exist to reduce the vulnerability of buildings, building contents, and infrastructure to losses from earthquakes. Often, however, these precautions have not been put in place, even in very dangerous areas. Indeed, individuals, organizations, and governments in dangerous places have been relatively slow to implement many risk reduction practices that have a high probability of reducing the vulnerability to earthquakes. Evidence continues to mount demonstrating that implementation lags sorely behind advances in scientific and engineering understanding. Getting policies and programs implemented is not a trivial matter. This article is presentig three good examples of implemented earthquake mitigation policies. The policies are comared on the mitigation process approach level.
REFERENCES
Alesch, D. J. and W. J. Petak (2002). OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTING EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MITIGATION POLICIES. Integrated Disaster Risk Management. FEMA (1995). How-to Suggestions for Implementing Executive Order 12941 on Seismic Safety of Existing Federal Buildings. USA. ICSSC TR-17. NIST (2002). Standards of Seisimc Safety for Federally Owned and Leased Buidlings. USA, U.S. Department of Commerce. NISTIR 6762 ICSSC RP 6: 27. NRC and IRC (1993). MANUAL FOR SCREENING OF BUILDINGS FOR SEISMIC INVESTIGATION. Vancouver, Canada, National Research Council of Canada 1993. NRCC 36943: 106. SIA (1970). Norm fr die Belastungsannahme, die Inbetriebnahme und die berwachung der Bauten. SIA 160. Zrich, Switzerland, SIA. SIA 160. SIA (1989). Einwirkungen auf Tragwerke. SIA 160. Zrich, Switzerland, SIA. SIA 160. SIA (2003). Actions on Structures. SIA 261. Zurich, Swiss Society of Engineers and Architects SIA. SIA 261. Sundararaj, P. R., J. Balazic, et al. (2001). Seismic Resistance of PWGSC Buildings, Real Property Policy. Document No. PN 115e. Canada, Public Works and Government Services Canada. Sundararaj, P. R., S. Foo, et al. (2004). PWGSC POLICY ON SEISMIC RESISTANCE OF EXISTING BUILDINGS.
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CREATIVITY IN CONSTRUCTION: A LOOK AT THE PAST AND A PEAK INTO THE FUTURE
Keynote Paper by Mirosaw J. Skibniewski A.J. Clark Chair Professor of Construction Engineering and Project Management, University of Maryland, College Park (U.S.A.) http://e-construction.pm.umd.edu Editor-in-Chief AUTOMATION IN CONSTRUCTION, An international research journal, www.elsevier.com/locate/autcon
1. THE NOTION OF CREATIVITY

What is creativity? According to a popular reference article, the term refers to the invention or origination of any new thing (a product, solution, artwork, literary work, etc.) that has value.New" may refer to the individual creator or the society or domain within which novelty occurs. "Valuable", similarly, may be defined in a variety of ways. The range of scholarly interest in creativity includes a multitude of definitions and approaches involving [] psychology, cognitive science, education, philosophy (particularly philosophy of science), technology, theology, sociology, linguistics, business studies and economics, taking in the relationship between creativity and general intelligence, mental and neurological processes associated with creativity, the relationships between personality type and creative ability and between creativity and mental health, the potential for fostering creativity through education and training, especially as augmented by technology, and the application of creative resources [].1 There are over 200 scientific descriptions of the process of human creativity due to the numerous aspects, domains and manifestations of this attribute. The role of creative minds in the construction industry will be of vital importance in the future, as this industry is most often the largest contributor to the national economies of almost all developed nations and beyond.2 In construction, creativity has been associated in history in a large part with the intellectual and organizational capacities of the master builder. Creativity remains unrealized unless it leads to the act of innovation. As construction knowledge and experience progressed through the ages in the realization of major construction projects, various project-related specialties emerged: architects, building engineers, project sponsors and financiers, material and equipment suppliers, labor organizers, etc. This has often led to creative tensions among numerous project participants which either stimulated or hampered construction creativity and innovation.
Compare http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creativity (11-Jun-2012) Langford, D., Dimitrijevi, B. (2002): Construction Creativity Casebook, Thomas Telford Publishing/ ASCE Press, ISBN 0 7277 3148 3
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2. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
Construction is undoubtedly a product of human creativity which experienced its peaks and valleys over the centuries. Building technologies and trades developed at first most likely in ancient Mesopotamia (in the Tigris-Euphrates river system), dating back to year 3600 BC. According to Sumerian mythology, the Mesopotamians regarded the craft of building as a divine gift taught to men by the gods. Ziggurats, pyramid-like structures of that civilization, remain to this day in todays Iraq. Similarly, ancient Chinese construction methods, utilizing both stone and timber, are as old as the Chinese civilization, dating back approx. to year 4000 BC. The Chinese were using elaborate wall-building techniques since approx. year 800 BC, culminating in the Great Wall of China built over an extraordinarily long period of approx. 2000 years. Ancient Egyptian pyramids of Giza, whose construction lasted only approx. 20 years and concluded in approx. year 2560 BC, were initially 147 meters in height and remained the tallest man-made structures for over 3800 years. The exact means and methods of their construction, ranging from ancient forms of in situ processes to those partially resembling offsite prefabrication, are subject to protracted speculations to date among archeologists and historians of technology. Ancient Maya construction of Central America, featuring ceremonial platforms, palaces, pyramids, temples, observatories and ball-courts had intricate carved stones and stair-step design, spanning a vast period of several thousands of years. Elaborate building methods were developed to include massive substructures made of stucco and cut stone interior, providing a solid foundation for the ensuing superstructures. External aesthetics took precedence over utility of many of these structures, as their purpose was typically both religious and lay. Ancient Inca architecture in pre-Columbian South America featured in Cuzco and at the royal estate of Machu Picchu dates back to the 2nd century BC and has not been emulated for several centuries following the Spanish conquest and subsequent destruction of this civilization. Ancient Greece and ancient Roman Empire borrowed a number of building techniques from the preceding civilizations while also developing unique techniques and architectural styles of their own, characterized by numerous temples, palaces and other public and private buildings, as well as world-renown structures such as Parthenon in Athens or Colosseo stadium in Rome. Construction techniques of parabolic stone arches subjected to compression forces only, with no bending moments, and the design and construction of elevated municipal and rural aqueducts resulted in great architectural accomplishments existing in southern and western Europe to the present day. The following European era of the Middle Ages, which lasted longer than all of the subsequent cultural periods combined, resulted in splendid Romanesque and Gothic architecture demanding new projects, undertaken both with the use of proven construction techniques from the bygone eras and new materials and techniques, including the production and implementation of building glass and an apparent use of organic mortars for stone masonry.
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3. LINKING THE PRESENT TO THE PAST

The invention of Portland cement and the production of concrete revolutionized the use of construction materials and techniques and the ensuing construction methods dominate to this day. There is some historical evidence that this technology dates back to the ancient Romans and was used in the Roman Empire, e.g. for construction of the Roman Pantheon.3 However, with the demise of that empire, the use of concrete was abandoned and almost forgotten, until its re-invention and slow re-emergence from the 18th century AD onwards. Currently the tallest building in the world, Burj Khalifa in Dubai (828 meters tall) is build with the use of this material. Ingenious creativity of construction craftsmen was exhibited throughout all of the architectural styles constituting the architectural and building engineering history of the last three centuries. Examples of ingenuity are too numerous to enumerate in a short presentation; it should suffice to mention the historically, technically, and artistically diverse select, short list of geniuses of Apollodorus of Damascus (2nd century AD), Abbot Suger (12th century), Villard de Honnecourt (13th century), Filippo Calendario (14th century), Leonardo da Vinci (1516th centuries), Raphael Santi (16th century), Gianlorenzo Bernini (17th century), Nicolai Eigtved (aka Niels Madsen) and Domenico Merlini (18th century), Bela Lajta and Adolf Lang (19th20th centuries), Frank Lloyd Wright (early 20th century), Renzo Piano (20th21st centuries), Frank Gehry (20th21st centuries), and many others. A new impetus to creativity in construction, and particularly to large earthwork projects and to tall buildings, was the progress of construction mechanization spurred by the invention of steam engine. Much of such equipment has been preserved to this day, thanks to the efforts of the Historical Construction Equipment Association4 based in Ohio, USA. A revolution in construction equipment was started with the invention of hydraulic pistons for the transmission of large forces. This led to a series of highly successful designs of the new types of earthmoving equipment, surface finishing tools, and all terrain telescopic boom cranes.5 What followed years later are improved equipment controls, intelligent sensors, laser-based telemetry and global positioning systems that led to marked improvement in the quality and productivity to many types of earthwork and allied construction tasks.6 Subsequently, construction robotics were designed and prototyped, initially in the early 1970s in the former Soviet Union on commission from the former Soviet armed forces7 (e.g. Prof. G. Frenkel at Moscow Institute of Civil Engineering and at VNIISTROYDORMASH), then in the
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Mukerji, C. (2005): "The Politics of Rediscovery in the History of Science: Tacit Knowledge of Concrete before its Discovery," Proceedings, American Sociological Association, Philadelphia, PA (USA), 12 August. 4 See www.hcea.net (11-Jun-12) 5 Skibniewski, M. (1988): Robotics in Civil Engineering, Computational Mechanics Publications/ Van Nostrand Reinhold, Southampton, Boston, New York, ISBN 0-442-31925-8, 233 pp. 6 Skibniewski, M. (1993): On the Implementation of Industrial Robotics in the Construction Industry, Inynieria i Budownictwo (Engineering and Construction), Journal of Polish Association of Civil Engineers and Civil Engineering Technologists (PZIiTB), Warsaw, Poland, No. 12, pp. 535536 (in Polish) www.inzynieriaibudownictwo.pl (13-June12) 7 Springer Handbook of Mechanical Engineering (2009): Karl-Heinrich Grote, Erik K. Antonsson, eds., ISBN 978-3540-49131-6
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late 1970s and early 1980s in Japan (Prof. Y. Hasegawa at Waseda Universitys Systems Science Institute, followed by several construction firms such as Obayashi, Shimizu, Kajima, Takenaka, Fujita, and others) and in the United States (Prof. W. Whittaker at Carnegie Mellon Universitys Field Robotics Center).8 The idea was not entirely new, as already in 1910 a French artist Villemard produced an illustration depicting his vision of a construction site in the year 2000.9 International Association for Automation and Robotics in Construction (IAARC)10 was created in 1993, continuing to organize annual symposia on this subject held around the world since 1984.11 In its early years of existence, IAARC members unknowingly shared Villemards early vision that robotics will become commonplace on construction project sites in the developed economies by the year 2000, which has not materialized not because of the lack of technical capabilities to implement them, but mainly due to the protracted economic crisis in Japan which led the development of robotic prototypes and automated systems for construction sites between in the 1980s and 1990s, and the persisting fragmentation of the industry in the United States and western Europe in their methods of the delivery of projects.12 Tall building construction presented yet another set of challenges to construction creativity, particularly related to vertical transport.13 Building elevator technologies available today widely employ artificial intelligence and fuzzy-set-based controls to automate and optimize vertical transport of materials and people. This, combined with significant improvements in lifting crane equipment and operations, has led to increased efficiency, safety and improved productivity on the construction site, although accidents in this type of essential construction work as still relatively common.14 There is a need redesign of many construction tasks based on sound ergonomic principles and aimed at further mechanization and automation of tasks that are simple, repetitive and inherently dangerous.15 Recent advances in the implementation rapid prototyping, construction process simulation and accelerated implementation of Building Information Modeling (BIM) technologies are on their way to transforming building construction and allied project-based professions serving the construction industry.16
Haas, C., Skibniewski, M, Budny, E. (1995): Robotics in Civil Engineering, Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, Vol. 10, Issue 5, pp. 371381, September, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8667.1995.tb00298.x 9 See http://bldgblog.blogspot.sg/2011/03/robot-and-architect-are-friends.html (12-Jun-12) 10 International Association for Automation and Robotics in Construction: www.iaarc.org (12-Jun-12) 11 2012 and 2013 International Symposia on Automation and Robotics in Construction: www.futuresiteconferences.nl/index.php/isg-isarc/ISGISARC2012; https://www.isarc2013.org (12-Jun-12) 12 Skibniewski, M. (1988): A Framework for Decision Making on Implementing Robotics in Construction, ASCE Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, Vol. 2, No. 2, April, pp. 188201 13 Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat: www.ctbuh.org (13-Jun-12) 14 See www.craneaccidents.com (12-Jun-12) 15 Russell, J., Skibniewski, M. (1990): An Ergonomic Analysis Framework for Construction Tasks, Construction Management and Economics, E & F.N. Spon Publishers (Chapman & Hall), London, England, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 329 338 16 See www.buildingsmart.org; www.wbdg.org/references/jbim.php (12-Jun-12)
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4. INNOVATION ENVIRONMENT IN CONSTRUCTION AND POSSIBLE WAY FORWARD

Innovation in construction project management benefitted much from the early advances in computational science and information technologies dating back to the late 19th century, particularly from work flow and networking techniques leading to improved project scheduling.17,18 Program management to reshape the future built environment, particularly that of 21st cities, will depend on our ability to implement the latest advances of information and automation technologies in an integrated manner.19 It is widely acknowledged that the main barrier to an increased pace of innovation in construction is the fragmentation of this industry initiated in mid 1950s and exacerbated throughout the remainder of the 20th century, creating adversarial and litigious project execution environments. Intense competition in most developed markets and the consequential low profit margins for construction contractors, designers and suppliers led to the commoditization of this industry. Additional severe challenges to the construction industries exist in the newly developing markets and in transition economies.20 Much of the process and quality improvement in construction utilizes proven management concepts from industries outside of construction.21 However, new project delivery systems such as BuildOperate-Transfer afforded an opportunity for new synergies among project owners, financiers, designers, constructors, suppliers and facility operators.22 Supply chains in construction are being transformed thanks to implementation of successful ideas from retail trade industries23 and e-commerce platforms affording access to previously closed markets and increasing competitiveness among suppliers.24 Development of Internet-based collaboration tools, besides their overwhelmingly positive effect on project efficiency and productivity, created also a highly distributed construction project management environment.25
Marsh, E. (1975): The Harmonogram of Karol Adamiecki, Research Notes, The Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 18, No. 2, June, pp. 358364 www.jstor.org/stable/255537 (13-Jun-12) 18 Hajdu, M. (1997): Network Scheduling Techniques for Construction Project Management, Nonconvex Optimization and Its Application Series, Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, ISBN 0-7923-4309-3 19 Sawaf, A., Skibniewski, M. (2011): Concepts for Next Generation Smart Real Estate, Ekonomia i Zarzdzanie (Economics and Management), Biaystok University of Technology Publishers, Vol. 3, No. 4, pp. 169177, ISSN 2080-9646 http://pbc.biaman.pl/Content/14250/EiZ+t.3,+no4.pdf (13-Jun-12) 20 Kocsis, T., Hajdu, M., Bokor, O. (2011): Challenges to the Construction Industry of Transition Countries, Budownictwo i Inynieria rodowiska (Civil and Environmental Engineering), Biaystok University of Technology Publishers, Vol. 2, pp. 521526, ISSN 2081-3279, www.biswbis.pb.edu.pl/2011_04/410.pdf (13-Jun-12) 21 Tchidi, M., He, Z., Li, Y-B. (2012): Process and Quality Improvement Using Six Sigma in Construction Industry, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, Vol. 18, Issue 2, pp. 158172, Taylor & Francis, DOI: 10.3846/13923730.2012.657411 22 Salman, A., Skibniewski, M., Basha, I. (2007): BOT Viability Model for Large Scale Infrastructure Projects, ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management Vol. 133, No. 1, January, pp. 50 63 23 Li, H., Guo, H-L, Skibniewski, M., Skitmore, M. (2008): Using the IKEA Model and Virtual Prototyping Technology to Improve Construction Process Management, Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 26(9), pp. 9911000 24 Castro-Lacouture, D., Medaglia, A.L., and Skibniewski, M. (2007). "Supply Chain Optimization Tool for Purchasing Decisions in B2B Construction Marketplaces," Automation in Construction, Elsevier, Vol. 16 (5), pp. 569575. 25 Nitithamyong, P., Skibniewski, M. (2004): Web-Based Construction Project Management Systems: What Makes Them Succeed? Automation in Construction, Elsevier, Vol. 13, No. 4, Elsevier, pp. 491506
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Jim Schug and Albert Watson of FMI argue for the need of construction innovation at three levels: tactical, operational and strategic.26 They state that routine perspectives brought into construction from outside industries generate stimulation that drives innovation. Such innovation must be rewarded by recognition from industry peers.27 All project participants should be made aware of their surroundings, enabling them to sense change and communicate the information to leaders of their organizations about technical and other related changes as seen from their perspective. Shared visions are essential to motivate and inspire construction organizations, propelling them to higher levels of creativity and innovation. Development of new skills, systems and strategic awareness creates a gradual change in attitude and behavior, resulting in improved organizational culture facilitating employee creativity. Changing the company culture to facilitate greater creativity takes time for most contractors due to organizational inertia and risk aversion created by the competitive and litigious work environment. A number of organizations worldwide, such as Construction Industry Institute,28 FIATECH,29 Construction Innovation Forum,30 Building Smart Alliance,31 and others strive to foster the culture of creativity and innovation in the construction industry. Creativity unleashed by the use of innovative technologies can transform the entrenched relationships among project participants throughout the entire supply chain of this industry.32,33 This requires technology transfer from other branches of industry into construction and vice versa,34 with a thorough technology feasibility evaluation prior to its implementation on construction sites.35 Much of the current efforts focus on construction innovation aims at the challenges related to environmental sustainability and energy management in the built environment,36 safety improvement,37 and
26 27
See www.fminet.com/media/pdf/quarterly/2012_1_foster_creativity.pdf (12-Jun-12) See www.constructionweekonline.com/article-16406-engineering-genius-towers (13-Jun-12) 28 See https://www.construction-institute.org (12-Jun-12) 29 See www.fiatech.org (12-Jun-12) 30 See www.cif.org (12-Jun-12) 31 See www.buildingsmartalliance.org (12-Jun-12) 32 Skibniewski, M., Chao, L-C. (1992): Evaluation of Advanced Construction Technologies with Analytical Hierarchy Process, ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 118, No. 3, September, pp. 577593 33 Chao, L-C., Skibniewski, M. (1995): Decision Analysis for New Construction Technology Implementation, Civil Engineering Systems, Vol. 12, Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, pp. 6782 (now Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, Taylor & Francis Publishers, Print ISSN: 1028-6608 Online ISSN: 1029-0249) 34 Skibniewski, M., Nof, S. (1989): A Framework for Programmable and Flexible Construction Systems, Robotics and Autonomous Systems, Vol. 5, Elsevier, pp. 135150 35 Gaultney, L., Skibniewski, M., Salvendy, G. (1989): A Systematic Approach to Industrial Technology Transfer: A Conceptual Framework and a Proposed Methodology, Journal of Information Technology, Assoc. for Information Technology, Kogan Page Ltd. Publishers (Palgrave-McMillan), London, Vol. 4, No. 1, March, pp. 716, DOI: 10.1057/jit.1989.2 36 Zavadskas, E., Kaklauskas, A., Raslanas, S., Galiniene, B. (2008): Web-based Intelligent DSS for Real Estate, International Journal of Environment and Pollution, Vol 35, No. 24, pp. 250264, Inderscience Publishers, ISSN 0957-4352 (Print) 1741-5101 (Online), DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2008.021359 37 Cheng, T. and Teizer, J. (2011): 3D Immersive Data Visualization Technology for Real-time Construction Applications, Conference Proceedings, Information Technologies in Safety Management (ITSM) of Large Scale Infrastructure Projects, November 2123, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
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productivity enhancement.38 This trend, rather than the creativity manifestations in new architectural forms, is likely to continue well into the future, particularly over growing environmental protection concerns and sustainability of the current economic systems in the remainder of the 21st century. Creative Construction Conference 2012 has a significant potential to push forward the notion of creativity in construction, building on the ideas of the past and contributing new proposals for the improvement of this vital industry. The idea for the conference came from Professor Mikls Hajdu, the academic and scholarly leader of the field of construction project management in Hungary, who has devoted his tireless effort to making this conference a great success. This event is an excellent opportunity to highlight the latest research results in construction creativity and innovation in Central Europe and worldwide.
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Chao, L-C., Skibniewski, M. (1994): Estimating Construction Productivity: Neural-Network-Based Approach, Special Issue on Neural Networks, ASCE Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, Vol. 8., No. 2., April, pp. 234 251
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SURVEY ON PROJECTS SUPPLY CHAIN IN POLISH ROAD CONSTRUCTION

Anna Sobotka AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow, Poland, sobotka@agh.edu.pl Daniel Walach AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow, Poland, walach@agh.edu.pl Dorota Pawlus AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow, Poland, dpawlus@agh.edu.pl Agata Czarnigowska Lublin University of Technology, Lublin, Poland, a.czarnigowska@pollub.pl
Abstract Road construction projects are challenging in technical, financial, and organizational aspects. The structure of a projects logistic system, construction logistic management strategies and models of logistic services have a considerable impact on project costs and, finally, on project results. Based on literature survey and structured interviews with managers of Polish road projects, the paper investigates into logistic systems of road contractors to point to possible improvements of logistic tasks efficiency, and focuses on the construction stage. The key links in the logistic chains and key processes were described and main reasons for disruption in logistic flows were identified. The survey provided input for assessing possibilities, or the actual level, of implementing the concept of supply chain management (SCM) to road construction. Barriers to implementing SCM were discussed with respect to project delivery systems. Keywords: supply chain, road construction, project logistic system, disruption in logistic flows.
1. INTRODUCTION
Development of the road network is currently one of the key priorities of the Polish government (Appendix, 2011). The number of road new-builds and modernisations running concurrently across the country is growing (GDDKiA, 2012). Road projects are especially challenging in terms of logistics: the sheer quantity of materials that have to be relocated and the individual character of local conditions demand a lot of effort from the supply chain management. Tough price competition in public tenders and its visible effects in the form
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of contract renegotiation applications or contractors serious liquidity problems (GDDKiA, 2012) forces the road builders to search for economies in improvement of their supply planning and organisation of the works as never before. The aim of logistics is planning, execution and control of resource (goods, materials, workforce, funds, information etc) flows and organising any processes that support these flows, in a system created to fulfil certain objectives (CEN/TC 273, 1997). The resource flow proceeds by means of the supply chains associations of suppliers and customers, and can be managed in order to raise efficiency of their cooperation (OBrien et al., 1998). To take managerial decisions, one should be aware of current best practices in the field, be able to compare own results to those achieved by the competitors (benchmarking) and use own experience gathered during past projects. The survey presented in the paper was aimed at providing insight into logistic systems adopted by Polish road contractors. The results were expected to indicate areas of possible improvements of logistic tasks efficiency, and current disruptions to the resource flows experienced by construction managers. On this basis, the authors conducted an assessment of possibilities, or the actual level, of implementing the concept of supply chain management (SCM) to road construction.
2. SURVEY METHODS AND SCOPE

The survey (a pilot survey in preparation of future broader investigations) was conducted in the form of a questionnaire-based structured interview with managers responsible for onsite activities preparation and control. Twelve site or logistics managers were interviewed; they represented twelve major road building companies acting as general contractors of national and regional road projects, including motorways, expressways and city circular roads. The questions covered the following topics: construction material supplies, staff and workforce employment policies, subcontracting, information flows, return logistics (here limited to construction waste management).
3. RESULTS
3.1. Supply with materials and components The main focus of the survey was on mass materials as aggregates, concrete and asphalt mixes, steel and prefabricated elements.
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Resource supply processes, though treated as equal to main construction processes, are considered ancillary and not value-adding (Sobotka, 2010). In the case of all surveyed contractors, the material supply logistics stays the personal responsibility of the site manager, or, in larger project, the construction logistics team working on-site. Their actions are supported, and decision taken over, by the head office usually with respect to largest deliveries with high buying costs, supplies that are needed for a number of projects and strategic resources (of limited supply, imported, requiring entering into long-term contracts). The distribution of responsibility and decision rights are clearly defined within organisation structures. The head office planning at the level of whole corporation is aimed as using economies of scale. However, about 65% of supplies (according to purchase values) are related only to a particular project and stay the responsibility of the project team. Subcontractors tend to use materials entrusted by the general contractors to use the bargain power of the stronger company. If a highly specialised subcontractor has a better access to certain resources, this opportunity is also explored (usually the case of noise protection components, services, road signs and pavement marking materials). Nevertheless, all materials and deliveries have to be accepted by the general contractor. The road projects big demand for mass materials implies that these resources are often delivered by a number of suppliers. For the sake of better quality control and reliability of deliveries, all the surveyed companies use their own asphalt and concrete plants and relocate them, if necessary, as they undertake projects in different parts of the country. The supply of high quality aggregates in Poland is limited and the demand, with the growing number of projects underway, enormous. The use of recycled materials and innovative technologies is still limited by the detailed specifications of the public clients. This encourages the contractors to own quarries rather than to rely on independent sources serving also other companies. Logistic challenges in this field are considerable for instance, the construction of A1 sections in the north of Poland involved bringing aggregate for concrete and asphalt mixes from Silesia (southern Poland, the distance being on average 300 km) and importing it from Scotland (50 thousand tonnes weekly delivered by sea to the port of Gdanks, and 100 thousand tonnes monthly to the port of Gdynia, then by rail). The surveyed contractors have developed detailed procedures to provide high quality of logistic service for the projects (Fig. 1a), especially for the deliveries that have a high share in overall project cost. Figure 1b lists the popularity of approaches to planning resource consumption, delivery quantities and schedules. Most deliveries are scheduled in detail and the transport routes have to be planned well in advance as in the case of large prefabricated bridge components. The cost, quality and time of the project is highly conditioned by the quality of materials used. Thus quality assurance procedures occupy an important position in the logistic systems of the surveyed companies, and includes supplier selection policies (Fig. 1c and 1d). Suppliers are usually searched for by sending enquiries. Tendering (understood as publishing of
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invitation to tender and waiting for the interested suppliers response) is rarely used. The selection of supplier is based on both the qualities of the supplier and their offer (84%) rather than only on the offered terms only. If the material is offered by a number of suppliers and needed in large quantities (like sand, reinforcing steel), the lowest price is the deciding criterion of selection (relative importance of 9 out of 10 points). The delivery time is also considered a key factor in selecting a supplier (8,5 points), as well as the ability to cover the full demand (8 points) and the ability to deliver, unload and provide other services related to handling the delivery (8 points). The same refers to other typical materials offered by a number of suppliers, even if the quantities (in terms of masses) are smaller (e.g. drainage pipes, geosynthetisc). Low price and delivery conditions have only a little lower importance with components and materials manufactured to order or available form a limited number of suppliers (e.g. prestressed components or big dimension steel components) and for concrete mix. However, in the case of asphalt mix, quality and reliability of deliveries are the key factors, and the price is considered in the third place (nevertheless, asphalt mixes are, as a rule, an in-house product).
Figure 1: Material supply processes survey results
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The road contractors prefer short supply chains they purchase directly from the manufacturers. Wholesalers or other intermediaries supply only unimportant materials used in small quantities. As for payment conditions, each delivery within the total order is paid separately, and terms of trade credit vary according to type of material and current market conditions. Advance payments are rarely used. All the surveyed managers claim that the unit price of materials stays constant as initially agreed with the supplier. However, price adjustments are not completely excluded 9 of 12 interviewees admit including such clauses in the agreements with suppliers.
3.2. Human resources and subcontracting The processes of recruitment, training, motivating, dismissing etc. can be treated as part of managing resource flows in a construction company or a project. Human resource planning, in a broader terms, involves strategic decisions and actions within particular operating units of the enterprise. However, from the point of the survey, it was considered as forecasting the number of staff and workforce of certain qualification needed at a particular point of time, in a particular place, and for particular tasks, planning changes in the employment structure, and assigning people to particular organisational units and positions (Pocztowski, 1996). As operations of road contractors are project-oriented, and keeping fixed numbers of employees for longer periods of time may be considered inefficient, one would expect that workforce fluctuation rates in road building would be considerable. The interviewees generally confirmed this assumption, though claimed that it does not noticeably affect the operations (75%). The contractors are likely to offer permanent employment contracts with good conditions to qualified, specialised, and experienced workforce (like licensed machine operators, foremen, service assemblers) and experienced engineering staff, who are generally in short supply. The interviewees confirm that their companies and are reluctant to dismiss these even in the times when the number of orders drops. However, simple work of inexperienced labour is often subcontracted, and inexperienced local labour is employed usually for the time of a particular project. The survey results on the scope of type of subcontracted construction processes is presented in Figure 2a. These are mostly discipline works of specialized subcontractors (where materials and equipment are usually provided by subcontractors), and simple labourintensive works (e.g. block paving), where materials and equipment are provided by the general contractor. As for the proportions between own and subcontracted work, this varies strongly form project to project and is also company-specific. Some of the respondents claim that as much as 90% of works (according to their value) is subcontracted, whereas other respondents subcontract less than 10% of the works, so there are no clear trends. Provision of engineering services (laboratory checks, land surveying and construction staking, other) and transportation services were also the object of the survey. The results with respect to their subcontracting are presented in Fig. 2b.
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Figure 2: Survey results on subcontracted activities (a) and outsourced engineering and transport services (b).
3.3. Provision of plant, equipment and transport services As road works are highly mechanised, and the project logistics includes managing plant and equipment. The majority of the interviewees (70%) rely on owned or leased machines and vehicles, employ their operators, and have specialized organisation units or subsidiaries responsible for machine provision, repair and maintenance. The rest prefer hiring them from specialised independent enterprises. None of the interviewed contractor offer their own equipment for hire. Machines are reported to be a common source of on-site problems: break-downs (both serious and minor) of the plant are frequent, planned inspections and maintenance procedures stop the works from time to time, failures of electronic devices occur on weekly basis. However, this is reported to be treated as normal, not affecting completion dates and is not considered a special source of project risk. Transport services are preferably contracted to large specialized companies, who are reported to offer cheaper service than their small competitors. Difficulties with permits to use local roads are experienced quite often as rail network is not dense, deliveries have to be transported via the existing road network, often unable to carry such loads. Delivery routes have thus to be planned well ahead, together with noise and traffic disruption mitigating measures, constructing independent access roads to the construction site and building temporary bridges. The repair of the local road network after completion of works has always a considerable share in the project budget (according to one of the interviewees, repair of local roads can cost about EUR 75 thousand per kilometre). The factors that are deciding in the process of selection of transport routes are various and usually include:
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requirements and preferences of local communities and local authorities on what route can be used and on what conditions, proposals of transport organisations verified by in-house logistics unit, bilateral (contractor transport organisation) agreements on the shorter possible route, according to which deliveries will be paid.
3.4. Reverse logistics Road construction works generate considerable quantities of waste, quite often requiring special handling procedures as being hazardous. These include, but are not limited, to: Road and building deconstruction materials, e.g. asphalt rubble, steel, concrete rubble that can be utilised in construction, or require more complex processing and special depositing (like building insulation materials), Asbestos (usually related with old service systems), Tars and bituminous materials, Fuels and lubricants leaking from the machines, Packaging: paper, plastics, metal cans etc., often containing remains of chemicals, Municipal and industrial waste deposits on the route of the road under construction. The road contractors use services of hazardous waste handling companies, though some problems are reported with regard to asbestos and polystyrene as dedicated deposits tend to be filling up. However, the interviewees report that, apart from the above waste, whose management can be (and is) planned at the construction preparation stage, some unpleasant surprises in the form of illegal deposits of mixed waste are often discovered along the route of the roads. This, depending on the scale, may involve work stoppage and start of the public clients procedure aimed at contracting the waste handling works.
4. LOGISTIC FLOWS DISRUPTIONS SUMMARY

Despite experience and expertise, logistic flows of road projects are subject to disruptions. The main reasons for disruptions (from the point of the interviewees) are listed in Table 1.
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Related with material flows: suppliers fault: e.g. machine break-downs in quarries, overestimated production capacities; transport-related difficulties: limited access to local roads, growing tolls, unavailable rail transport; unreliability of rail transport; material quality problems, batch rejections due to quality, disruptions due to unfavourable weather condition (e.g. snowfalls and fill works), periodical short supply due to many projects running concurrently. Related with human resources and subcontractors: periodical short supply of qualified staff and workforce due to many projects running concurrently, short supply (in general) of highly qualified engineering staff, short supply (in general) of qualified machine operators, periodical short supply of subcontractors due to many projects running concurrently, short supply (in general) of specialized subcontractors. Related with plant, equipment and transport services: machine break-downs, electronic devices break-downs, periodical inspections of machines, periodical short supply of plant and equipment due to many projects running concurrently restrictions on use of local roads, disruptions due to unfavourable weather conditions (on-site mostly clay soils), unreliability or rail transport.
Table 1: Reasons for disruption in logistic flows at construction stage
These disruptions may potentially cause cost increase and be the reason for not keeping to the contract dates. Potential disruptions related with material flows are included by 30% of surveyed contractors in their risk assessment procedures. With respect to aggregates, availability and quality risks are eliminated by the contractors purchasing quarries. Similarly, availability, quality and reliability of supplies with concrete and asphalt mixes is achieved by relying solely on in-house asphalt and concrete plants. However, road availability risks and transport-related risks are not accounted for in a distinct way, despite the fact that its occurrence is considered highly probable. Factors outside the scope of construction logistics were also reported to affect the works. These included: mistakes in the design; quite often due to the fact that designs are prepared well ahead of tendering for works and, as such, do not account for later changes in land development, but also to the public clients practice of selecting cheapest design bid, and common inadequate survey on ground conditions prior to design, searching economies at the design stage by selecting cheap construction methods prone to failures,
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the clients failure to prepare legal framework for works: deficiencies in the clients tender documents, prolonged administration procedures with construction permits, protests of local communities or environment-protecting organisations, unexpected force-majeure events such as floods.
5. SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT AND ROAD CONSTRUCTION CONCLUSIONS

The interviewees represented large and medium road construction companies of long experience in Polish market. Though outsourcing and subcontracting is a common practice, logistic services stay within their core competencies. As expressed by the experts, this is due to the conviction that keeping logistics in-house provides: better quality control of materials greater reliability of deliveries in the competitive market and full coordination with the on-site works. Economies of scale and reliability in the times of are achieved as most of the surveyed companies are large corporations with subsidiaries specialized in provision of raw materials or providing multimodal transport for their own needs. Thus, road construction relies on short logistic chains: manufacturer (sometimes in-house) transport company (sometimes in-house) construction site. The concepts of supply chain management are present in the practice of the surveyed contractors, and include: integration of the supply chain links and processes (however, in current market conditions, this means conducting many processes in-house), using Manufacturing Resource Planning (MRP) approach: the actions are planned, the production scheduled, resource requirements defined, and production is controlled in detail, in coordination with supplies control, which is quite natural in project-oriented environment, implementing agile logistics concepts (Womack and Jones, 1996) on project level, using Just-in-Time approach wherever possible to reduce costs (though aggregates are kept in stock due to short supply), quality assurance systems are used. The main concern of road contractors nowadays seems assuring continuity of works despite scarcity of resources, and providing at least adequate quality. However, the interviewees admit that are unaware of the actual level of logistic costs they are not analysed as separate item; it is thus difficult to define at what cost they meet their logistic challenges. No clear answer was obtained to the question on applying mathematical optimisation techniques (OBrien er al, 1998) to support logistic decisions, however, some interviewees claimed that these are not used to support decisions taken on-site.
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Another issue arises from the procurement system. Most road projects (new-builts) use the traditional design-bid-build system with general contractor, which is less flexible the specifications of the final product are prepared beforehand, and there is little space for the contractors alternative solutions to account for possible supply problems.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The work is a part of the research project No. 2124/B/T02/2011/40, funded by National Centre of Science in Krakow, Poland. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support.
REFERENCES
Appendix to the Resolution of the Council of Ministers No. 10/2011 of 25 January 2011, Program budowy drog krajowych na lata 2011 2015 (National Road Construction Program 20112015). CEN/TC 273, 1997. Logistics Structure, Basic Terms and Definitions in Logistics, European Committee for Standardisation Brussels. GDDKiA (General Directorate for National Roads), 2012, www.gddkia.gov.pl/en/1618/News OBrien W.J., Formoso C.T., Vrijhoef R., London K.A, 2009. Construction supply chain management. Handbook. CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group. LLC, USA. Pocztowski A., 1998. Zarzadzanie zasobami ludzkimi. Zarys problematyki i metod. Antykwa, Krakow. Sobotka A., 2010. Logistyka przedsiebiorstw i przedsiewziec budowlanych. Wyd. Uczelniane AGH, Krakow. Womack J.P., Jones D.T., 1996. Lean Thinking. Banish waste and create wealth in your corporation. Simom & Schuster, NY.
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AGGREGATE SUPPLY DECISION MODEL FOR ROADWORKS

Anna Sobotka AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow, Poland, sobotka@agh.edu.pl Piotr Jaskowski Lublin University of Technology, Lublin, Poland, p.jaskowski@pollub.pl Agata Czarnigowska Lublin University of Technology, Lublin, Poland, a.czarnigowska@pollub.pl Daniel Walach AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow, Poland, walach@agh.edu.pl
Abstract The paper proposes two mixed binary linear programming models that may be of help in the contractor logistic decisions on shaping the projects aggregate supply chain. The problem is an extension to the classic transhipment problem, and allows for change of location of the works along the route with the progress of works, and for the constraints resulting from the schedule of the works. The model is to facilitate finding optimal delivery quantities from a number of sources of limited production capacity and with a limited transportation potential to predefined locations (stacking areas) along the road, minimising logistic costs. Keywords: aggregate supply, decision model, road construction.
1. INTRODUCTION
Effective supply chain management (SCM) is currently recognized as a key determinant of competitiveness and success for most manufacturing and retailing organizations, because the implementation of supply chain management has significant impact on cost, service level, and quality (Chiou 2008). Road construction consumes large quantities of aggregates. If the material is not easily available, and if it is to be transported from large distances, as in the case of Poland, careful selection of material sources, and coordination of deliveries with construction schedules become key factors of project efficiency. Specific conditions observed currently in Polish road construction among others, limited supply of certain aggregate types, supply fluctuations, the fact that the quarries are located in certain regions only, poor condition and limited
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availability of existing delivery routes, incentives for keeping large aggregate inventories resulting from contract conditions, tough competition for contracts and resulting low profit margins make logistic decisions in this field difficult. The authors recent pilot survey on road contractors material procurement practices indicate that optimisation techniques are rarely used. However, searching for economies by optimising supply systems seems nowadays more and more important.
2. ROAD CONSTRUCTION-RELATED DEMAND FOR AGGREGATES IN POLAND

Recent Polish road infrastructure boom, visible from 2008, was triggered by introduction of European Union operating programmes, and growing demand from the expanding economy that could not rely on the existing road network. Between 2011 and 2013, road infrastructure projects would have consumed EUR 18.1 billion, of that nearly 50% is planned to come from European funds; to compare with the previous three-years perspective that consumed about EUR 12.8 billion, of which 20% was EU-funded (Appendix, 2011). On 8th March 2012, the national road works reported to be running concurrently covered 1358 km under construction or being modernized, of which 528,8 km were motorways (Informacja, 2012). Location of the projects is presented in Figure 1. At the same time, there are numerous regional and local road projects underway.
Figure 1. National Roads Construction Programme 20112015 motorways, expressways and circulars completed, under construction and in preparation as on 24th April 2012 (Bialecka, 2012), and distribution of natural resources.
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The development plans for the future are also impressive. However, road construction consumes enormous masses of materials, such as aggregates, needed for granular subbases, asphalt mixes and concrete mixes. Rough estimates of Polish Association of Aggregate Suppliers (Kabzinski, 2012) on the national road project-related demand for aggregates indicate a declining trend after the peak in 20122015, when most motorways should have been completed (Figure 2). It is worth considering, that national road building programme consumes currently about 50% of total volume of aggregates supplied to road projects. The supply, though claimed to cover the demand, is seasonal, and subject to numerous legal restrictions. It could be reasonably improved if recycled material was wider accepted in construction (Kabzinski, 2012).
Figure 2. Estimate of demand for aggregates related with National Rroad Building Programmes 20122020, by Polish Association of Aggregate Suppliers (based on Kabzinski, 2012)
In Poland, natural aggregate sources are unevenly distributed across the country practically all rock deposits are located south from the line connecting Wroclaw and Kielce (marked yellow in Figure 1), but sands and gravels to the north, (Kabzinski, 2008), which makes material handling a key issue while planning large-scale construction works. The condition of transport routes (existing roads of low carrying capacities, traffic disruptions due to road projects running, inadequate rail network) adds to the problem. It is therefore advisable to improve aggregate procurement practices to make the best use of available resources and minimise the burden of construction logistics.
3. LOGISTIC MODELS OF AGGREGATTE SUPPLY FOR ROAD CONSTRUCTION

The problem of minimizing the total cost or duration of transportation between sources and destinations has long been studied and is well known. The transshipment problem is an extension of the framework of the classical transportation problems. The extension is in allowing the presence of a set of transshipment points that can serve as intermediate stops for shipments (Orden 1956).
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The paper analyses two models of a road construction supply system, limited to aggregate supplies. The supply chain assumes the form presented in Figure 3.
Figure 3. Links of the aggregate supply chain considered
3.1. Model I There exist n suppliers i of the aggregate of granular subbase course (i =1, 2, ..., n). The aggregate is to be delivered to stacking areas j, and their total number is m (j =1, 2, ..., m). From these stacking areas, the material is to be forwarded to the destination points sections r of the road being constructed (r =1, 2, ..., p). The stacking areas and road sections should be numbered according to the sequence of works. The deliveries are made by means of trucks of equal load capacity. The remaining notations used in the model are listed below: tr is a completion date of the road section r =1, 2, ..., p, and the works in the next section start without any lag, thus t0 is the day of commencement with works in the first road section, and tp the day of completing the last section, zr is a daily consumption of aggregate in section r, expressed in units per day, where unit means the volume brought by a single truck, cij represents the unit price of delivering one unit of aggregate from a supplier i to the stacking area j, covers both the price of the material itself and transport cost, and is expressed in EUR per unit (truckload), dij is a maximum daily volume of deliveries from supplier i reaching stacking area j, resulting from the quarrys daily production and loading capacity, and travel distance, expressed in units (truckloads) per day, kjr is a unit transport cost from the stacking area j to the road section r, expressed in EUR per unit (truckload), E the advance of deliveries before commencement with works (t0), expressed in days; during E days deliveries can be made just to stock, Sj the level of safety stock in the stacking area j, expressed in units (truckloads), Lj maximum capacity of stacking area j, expressed in units (truckloads),
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xij a variable that represents the quantity of aggregate delivered from supplier i to the stacking area j, expressed in units (truckloads), and is no smaller than 0 for each suppliers and each stacking area, yjr a binary variable used for assigning stacking areas to particular road sections, it equals 1 if the aggregate for section r will be taken from stacking area j, and 0 in another case. uij a binary variable that equals 1 if the aggregate is delivered from the supplier i to the stacking area j at the day , =E+1, E+2, ..., 0, 1, ..., tp. It was assumed that all aggregate for a particular road section should come from the same stacking area, so
y
j =1
jr
= 1, r = 1, 2 , ..., p .
(1)
The quantity of aggregate brought from the supplier i to the stacking area j is the sum of all daily deliveries from i to j:
xij =
= E +1
tp
uij d ij , i = 1, 2, ..., n, j = 1, 2, ..., m .
(2)
Each stacking area j should receive the aggregate quantity corresponding to the consumption at the road sections it serves:
x y
ij i =1 r =1
jr
z r (t r t r 1 ), j = 1, 2, ..., m .
(3)
The suppliers production and transporting capacity is limited, so, on any particular day, a supplier cannot provide their maximum daily volume of deliveries to more than one stacking area:
uij
j =1
1, i = 1, 2, ..., n, = E + 1, E + 2, ..., 0, 1, ..., t p .
(4)
The stock level at a stacking area cannot be greater than the stacking area capacity, and cannot drop below safety stock level:
Sj
i =1 = E +1
uij d ij y jr z r L j ,
r =1
(5)
j = 1, 2, ..., m, w = E + 1, E + 2, ..., 0, 1, ..., t p ,
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where:
min t r , w t r 1 , w > t r 1 0, w t r 1
{ }
(6)
The objective function (minimising the total cost of supplying aggregate to all road sections considered) takes the following form:
min z : z = cij xij + k jr y jr z r t r t r 1 .

i =1 j =1 j =1 r =1
n m
(7)
The model may account for smaller deliveries (i.e. providing less than maximal daily number of units from the source to the destination), but due to the fact that the number of variables and constraints is considerable, and the model described by equations (1) to (8) is in fact quite complex, it is necessary to develop dedicated heuristic or metaheuristic algorithms, to use it for solving practical cases.
3.2. Model II To reduce computational complexity of the model, simplifying assumptions were introduced. Deliveries to the stacking areas are continuous from the time of the stacking area opening. After selecting who should supply particular stacking areas (so after solving Model II), schedules of deliveries to the stacking areas should be prepared separately by means of solving classic stock management models to optimize logistic cost. Let us assume that: j represent daily costs of maintaining the stacking area j, or are sufficiently small numbers, D is the number of days of delivering the aggregate to stacking areas before commencement with works in the road sections served by these stacking areas, gij is a variable that represents the number of days of delivering the aggregate from the supplier i to the stacking area j, gij int, gij 0, Tj a variable that stands for the date of the stacking area j opening to deliveries, vj a variable that stands for the date of the stacking area j closing for deliveries. Just as in the case of Model I, the aggregate for a particular road section should come from one stacking area, and each stacking area should receive the quantities corresponding to the requirements of the road sections it serves, so conditions (1) and (3) must be fulfilled, whereas the total quantity of aggregate to be delivered from supplier i to stacking area j can be calculated according to the following formula:
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xij = g ij d ij , i = 1, 2, ..., n, j = 1, 2, ..., m .
(8)
Let us assume the beginning of the planning horizon to be E days before commencement with works at the first road section. The updated section starting dates are thus:
t rE = t r + E , j = 0, 1, ..., p .
(9)
The stacking area j closes (at vj) after the works on road sections served by this stacking area are completed:
y jr t rE v j , j = 1, 2, ..., m, r = 1, 2, ..., p .
E vj tp , j = 1, 2, ..., m .
(10)
(11)
v j 1 v j y jr t r t r 1 , j = 2, 3, ..., m .
r =1
(12)
The date of the stacking area j opening (and the possibility to begin deliveries) is to occur no later than on D days from the commencement with works in road sections served by this stacking area. With the assumption on continuous deliveries, this is no later than D days before completing the works in the preceding sections, served by the preceding stacking areas:
0 T j v j 1 D, j = 2, 3, ..., m ,
(13) (14)
0 T1 E D .
The time of a stacking area operation cannot be shorter than the time of accepting deliveries from the suppliers serving it:
g ij v j T j , i = 1, 2, ..., n, j = 1, 2, ..., m .
(15)
Let us assume, that each supplier starts delivering as soon as a stacking area opens. Thus, if a supplier serves a number of stacking areas, the date of finishing deliveries to a particular stacking area should be before starting supplies to the next stacking area:
T j + g ij T j +1 , i = 1, 2, ..., n, j = 1, 2, ..., m 1 .
(16)
This condition guarantees that the suppliers capacity is not exceeded, and that there are no material shortages. With a relatively small daily costs of maintaining a stacking area, it facilitates selection of cheapest suppliers at the cost of extending the operating period of
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stacking areas. Detailed schedules to particular stacking areas can be optimised after selecting which supplier should deliver what quantities to which stacking area. The objective function (minimising cost of deliveries and maintaining the stacking areas) takes the following form:
min z : z = cij xij + k jr y jr z r t r t r 1 + j v j T j D .

i =1 j =1 j =1 r =1 j =1
(17)
3.3. Example Input for the example is listed in Tables 1, 2 and 3. A fixed daily demand of zr = 60 truckloads per day was assumed. The daily costs of maintaining each of the three stacking areas is j = 20 EUR/day. Deliveries may start no later than D = 2 days before starting works at each of road sections served by the stacking areas, and no earlier than E = 10 days before commencement with works in general. Each road section is 100 m long, and the road is a dual carriageway with two lanes in each direction, of average total width of 22 m. The subbase material unit mass is 1.8 t/m3. The subbase was assumed 60 cm thick, so the estimated material consumption per section is about 120 truckloads (trucks of 20 t capacity). The works in each road sections were assumed to last two days (Table 2). The unit cost of transport is 1 EUR/km, the price of aggregate is the same by each supplier and equals 10 EUR/t. i 1 j 1 2 3 242 / 30 238 / 40 238 / 40 230 / 22 235 / 20 236 / 20 260 / 30 264 / 20 255 / 30 270 / 30 250 / 40 250 / 40 280 / 30 270 / 40 266 / 40 2 3 4 5
Table 1: Unit cost of transporting a truckload of aggregate from supplier i to a stacking area j cij (EUR/truckload, results from assumed distances) and maximum daily volume of delivery from supplier i to stacking area j, dij (truckloads); to save space, these two values shown in one table in the form: cij / dij
r tr
1 2
2 4
3 6
4 8
5 10
6 12
7 14
8 16
9 18
10 20
11 22
12 24
Table 2: Dates of completing works (tr) in each road section (r)
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r j 1 2 3
10
11
12
0.7 1.1 1.7
0.3 0.9 1.5
0.1 0.7 1.3
0.3 0.5 1.1
0.5 0.3 0.9
0.7 0.1 0.7
0.9 0.3 0.5
1.1 0.5 0.3
1.3 0.7 0.1
1.5 0.9 0.3
1.7 1.1 0.5
1.9 1.3 0.7
Table 3: Unit cost of delivering a truckload of aggregate from stacking area j to road section r, kjr (EUR/truckload)
Solution of Model II based on the above input values was found by means of LINGO 12.0 Optimization Modeling Software by Lingo Systems Inc. Values of the optimal solution are shown in Table 4 (only those greater than 0 to save space). Variable: Value: Variable: Value: Variable: Value: X11 150 Y25 1 X12 320 Y26 1 T1 1 X13 280 Y27 1 T2 16 X21 330 Y28 1 T3 24 X22 160 Y39 1 g11 5 X23 200 Y3,10 1 g12 8 Y11 1 Y3,11 1 g13 7 Y12 1 Y3,12 1 g21 15 Y13 1 Y14 1
1
18 g22 8
2
26 g23 10
3
34
Objective function:
340,924
Table 4. Optimal solution for the example (only values greater than 0 are shown)
In this particular case, the lowest total logistic costs are obtained if each of three stacking areas considered serves 400 m of road (stacking area no. 1 sections 1 4, stacking area no. 2 sections 58, stacking area no. 3 sections 912). Deliveries are to start 9 days before commencement with works (T1=1). The first stacking area should be supplied daily, until the 4th road section is finished. Deliveries from supplier no. 1 (lasting 5 days in total) can start later, at a date established separately by optimising the cost of keeping stock at the stacking area no. 1. Similarly, the deliveries from supplier no. 1 to stacking area no. 3: as the total delivery time (7 days) is shorter than the opening time of stacking area no. 3 (v3 T3 = 10), it is possible to schedule deliveries in a way that minimises the cost of keeping stock, considering continuous deliveries from supplier no. 2. As for stacking area no. 2, the deliveries from suppliers no. 1 and 2 should be scheduled within 10 days economies could be sought in delivering daily volumes lower than top capacity of the suppliers.
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4. CONCLUSIONS
Considering the current Polish conditions, rapid development of road infrastructure requires expanding production of aggregates and treating them as strategic resource. According to commercial organisations, a lot can be done to make better advantage of available natural resources, recycled material, and reach resources considered now an industrial waste, to cover the demand in full without resorting to importation (Kabzinski A, 2012). However, logistic challenges faced by road contractors indicate also that decision support tools should find their way to road building. Complex logistic chains, related with the necessity of finding numerous suppliers for large projects, and market-enforced search for economies by improving organisation will inevitably lead to adopting mathematic optimisation tools in practice. The models presented in the paper are an example of what can be done by means of tools just slightly more complex than usual spreadsheets.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
REFERENCES
Appendix to the Resolution of the Council of Ministers No. 10/2011 of 25 January 2011, Program budowy drog krajowych na lata 2011 2015 (National Road Construction Programme 20112015) B. Bialecka, 2012. Program Budowy Drg Krajowych na lata 20112015. Realizacja i przygotowanie autostrad, drg krajowych i obwodnic. Stan na 24 kwietnia 2012 (National Road Construction Programme 20112015. State of development of motorways, expressways and circulars. The state on 24 April 2012). Departament Studiow GDDKiA, www.gddkia.gov.pl/1037/sprawdz-na-mapie-przygotowanie-drog-i-autostrad Chiou Ch.-Ch., 2008. Transshipment Problems in Supply Chain Systems: Review and Extensions. In: Kordic V. (ed.) Supply Chain, Theory and Applications, ISBN 978-3-902613-22-6, February 2008, ITech Education and Publishing, Vienna, Austria, pp. 558. Informacja o inwestycjach na drogach krajowych (Information on national road projects) , 8th march 2012, Ministry of Transport, Construction and Maritime Economy, www.transport.gov.pl/2-48203f1e24e2f-1793180p_1.htm Kabzinski A., 2012. Prognoza potrzeb i produkcji kruszyw w Polsce w latach 2012 2020 (+2). Polski Zwizek Producentw Kruszyw, http://www.kruszpol.pl/ Kabzinski A., 2008. Polskie kruszywa na polskie drogi. Budownictwo Przemysowe 2008, Wyd. AKNET-PRESS, Krakow , pp.4047 Orden A., 1956. The transshipment problem. Management Science, Vol. 2, No. 3., pp. 276285.
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A REVIEW OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem Politecnico di Torino, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, Turin, Italy, jamal.thaheem@polito.it Alberto De Marco Politecnico di Torino, Dept. of Management and Production Engineering, Turin, Italy, alberto.demarco@polito.it Kristen Barlish Del E. Webb School of Construction, Arizona State University, Tempe (AZ), USA, kbarlish@asu.edu
Abstract Construction industry is at the forefront of risk: it involves situations where uncertainty is a norm. Based on the volatility built into the very nature of this industry, risk management has been an integral part of construction management. The variety of risks faced in construction industry is enormous and there are correspondingly various techniques available to respond to the critical situations. Quantitative analysis techniques, based on their sophisticated mathematical, statistical and scientific background, promise a detailed and thorough quantification and measurement of risk, which is very important for designing the response. A construction project manager may not be able to plan the response effectively without an exhaustive knowledge of the volume of risk. This paper presents a review of various quantitative risk analysis techniques. It tries to build an overall understanding of various existing quantitative techniques for construction project risk analysis. It initially uses results of a survey to find out the trends of construction industry, globally, in terms of utilization of quantitative risk analysis and relevant techniques. Further, it looks into the details of the techniques from the published material. Finally, it reports some critical findings from the survey and literature review, and their logical and scientific deduction by stressing both, researchers and practitioners, towards the need for simplifying the existing quantitative techniques. It also tries to identify some research gaps. In conclusion, it proposes areas of future research in quantitative techniques for construction project risk management by improving existing techniques or making new ones. Keywords: construction management, risk analysis, risk management research, quantitative techniques.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Every construction activity, no matter what its size and complexity are, involves risks, which may vary in their final affect on deliverables (Hendrickson and Au, 1989; Dey, 2002; Poon et al, 2004). Any new construction project often raises participants anticipation and enthusiasm, which usually results in overly ambitious and optimistic attitudes, probably based on the prior experience, preparations and project management practices, setting up an unjustifiably idealistic atmosphere, which, in reality, is an uphill task for uncertain activity, such as construction (Thevendran and Mawdesley, 2004). The construction industry involves architecture, engineering and building of facilities (De Marco, 2011). Moreover, complexity is introduced into construction projects due to the tendency of developing large-sized mega projects, which involve intricate designs and novel materials, escalating the overall exposure to risk and uncertainty (Akintoye and MacLeod, 1997; Abdelgawad and Fayek, 2010). To respond to these threats and avoid the failure of projects due to unmanaged risks, risk management must be fundamental to project managers (Royer, 2000; Raz et al, 2002). Since construction is a risky venture, PRM must not be ignored due to its criticality in coping up with various possibilities (Griffis and Christodoulou, 2000). The purpose of PRM is foreseeing and consequently reducing the impact of or keeping away from the risky situations. To this end, project schedule, budget, cost or quality may be revised, reducing the uncertainties and keeping the project objectives intact (Kim and Bajaj, 2000; Krane et al, 2010). Literature points out that although PRM has benefited from utilization of quantitative techniques for analyzing the risk (Baker et al, 1999; Raz and Micheal, 1999; Jun and Haiyan, 2010; Mehdi and Ghodsi, 2011), but there still exist obstacles and complexities, which coerce the practitioners to hold back from exploiting the complete benefits of these techniques (Raz et al, 2002; White and Fortune, 2002; Sato et al, 2005), and a number of cases have been reported where, on average, 92.06% cost overruns have occurred (Flyvbjerg et al, 2003).
2. INDUSTRY TRENDS IN PRM: SURVEY RESULTS

As part of a separate work (under review), a detailed online survey was carried out, which aimed at understanding the degree of acceptance, penetration and usage of PRM process, techniques and software tools in the construction sector specifically. Of various other findings, some interesting revelations were unearthed in terms of quantitative analysis techniques: survey results, as presented in Figure 1, imply that 64% respondents use Expert Judgment and 44% use Interviewing as quantitative analysis techniques. Respondents suggested Brainstorming as a technique for quantitative analysis. Also, 2% respondents dont use any quantitative analysis techniques.
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Figure 1: Quantitative Risk Analysis Techniques
3. TECHNIQUES
The comprehensive literature review was carried out for 16 quantitative risk analysis techniques. They are described in subsequent sections.
3.1. Bayesian Method Bayesian method, based on the theorem presented by Reverend Thomas Bayes in 1764, offers the possibility to use personal and objective probability estimates changing as new data appear as elements of uncertainty are numerous, subjective and may be revised, following the acquisition of information (Van der Acker, 1996, 71). Bayesian models have developed procedures to revise probability by changing the initial values based on experimental results. The probability of an event is conditional on another event unknown or uncertain (Anderson et al, 1999).
3.2. Belief Functions Method Belief Functions method comes from the DempsterShafer theory, which is a generalization of Bayesian theory of subjective probability. This method allows combining evidence sources and arrives at a degree of belief that takes into account all the available evidence even though when sufficient information is not accessible (Pearl, 1990). Belief, in a hypothesis, is constituted by the sum of the masses of all sets enclosed by it. Belief (denoted by Bel) measures the strength of the evidence in favor of a set of propositions. It ranges from 0(no evidence) to 1(certainty) (Shafer, 1976).
3.3. Decision Making Matrix A decision making matrix, also known as risk matrix, is a graphical tool that combines information such us the chance of occurrence of an event and the consequences of the event (if
658
it occurs) for quantifying risk as the product of both concepts. This tool is easy and quick to use and is therefore preferred (Barringer, 2008). The main objective of decision matrix is to evaluate and prioritize a list of options by establishing a list of weighted criteria for the evaluation of each option. It is very simple and is principally based on expert judgment and some simple calculations for obtaining the results of the matrix. A lot of subjectivity in this process may be found which calls for experienced and prepared participants (Mullur et al, 2003).
3.4. Decision Tree Analysis Decision tree analysis is a graphic technique that involves considering different situations and the implications of each scenario, and compares them for choosing the best option in each case. It includes the cost of each choice, the probability of occurrence and with that, it assigns a value, an outcome (Olivas, 2007). Decision trees provide a highly effective structure within which the options may be laid out and the possible outcomes of choosing those options can be investigated. Decision tree analysis helps in forming a balanced picture of the risks and rewards associated with each possible course of action (Dey, 2002). The decision tree analysis technique can be applied to many different project management situations. In risk management, there are some types of risk that decision trees are capable of handling and others that they are not. In particular, decision trees are best suited for risk that is sequential (Hulett, 2006).
3.5. Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Expected monetary value analysis is a statistical concept that calculates the average outcome when the future includes scenarios that may or may not happen (PMI, 2009). EMV is a tool for risk quantification that is the product of two numbers: risk event probability and risk event value (Raftery, 1994). It takes into account all possible outcomes and the probabilities of each alternative decision or strategy. Multiplying each possible outcome value with their probability and adding all the results together may help obtain the total result. This value is positive for opportunities and negative for threats (Stefanovic and Stefanovic, 2005).
EMV =
Value
n1
Pr obability n
3.6. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FEMA) Failure mode and effect analysis is a quantitative tool that consists of evaluating potential process (or a product) failures, evaluates risk priorities and helps determine and assess the impact of those causes, with the purpose of avoiding identified problems. Questions like what are the things that can go wrong?, why would the failure happen? and what will
659
be the consequences of each failure? are the ones that can help us for applying this method (Lutz and Woodhouse, 1999). Once risks are identified, project team members need to assess the extent to which existing control mechanisms or procedures are likely to detect the cause of failure before it occurs or before its effects occur, allowing time for taking corrective actions (Snee and Rodebaugh, 2008). So, this technique is used for two main reasons: to prevent an extra cost of design modifications by discovering problems in the initial design and operational deficiencies, and to reduce errors throughout the project development (Carbone and Tippett, 2004).
3.7. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) Fault Tree Analysis was developed in 1962 for the U.S. Air Force by Bell Telephone Laboratories for the use of Minuteman system (Rechard, 1999). It is a graphic model of the pathways within a system that can lead to a foreseeable and undesirable loss event. The pathways interconnect contributory events and conditions, using standard logic symbols (Clemens, 2003); so, it represents the various combinations (parallel or sequential) of possible failures and interrelated logic of events leading to the undesired event (Stamatelatos and Vesely, 2002). It is important to understand that a fault tree is not a model of all possible system failures or all possible causes for system failure (Ortmeier and Schellhorn, 2006).
3.8. Interviewing Interviewing techniques are employed to assess probabilities and the impact of achieving specific objectives based on input from relevant stakeholders and subject matter experts. In the interview, it is always a good mix to obtain the optimistic (low), pessimistic (high), and most likely scenario for a given objective (Kerzner, 2003). The experience of some risk practitioners has led to an estimate that the project manager might be able to identify 60 80% of foreseeable risk through use of a structured interview approach (Hillson, 2004).
3.9. Monte Carlo Method Monte Carlo method got its name as the codeword for work that Von Neumann and Ulam were doing during the World War II at Los Alamos for the atom bomb, where it was used for integrating mathematical functions (Vose, 2008; Salling). Thus, it exists approximately since 1940s where roulette game was a good example for random number generation and was very famous in the casinos of Monte Carlo (Monaco). However, until the increase of computer technology and power, it did not become the most used technique (Pengelly, 2002). Monte Carlo method is the application of laws of probability and statistics to natural and physical sciences. What make it particular are those various distributions of random numbers which reflect a particular process in a chain of processes (Anderson, 1986). It is a method of investigating the
660
effect on a strategy of the main risks as simultaneous and non-linear interaction may have an effect on the otherwise nominal or already settled results (Hulett, 2004).
3.10. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Program Evaluation and Review Technique is a useful tool for scheduling, organizing and coordinating different tasks in a project. It was developed mainly to simplify the planning and scheduling of large and complex projects (Malcolm et al, 1959). One of its aims is to statistically estimate, with a determined probability and range of values, the amount of time for otherwise uncertain project tasks (ADEAK, 2011). Its used when there is an uncertainty in the durations of project activities (Klastorin, 2003).
3.11. Probability Distributions Probability distributions describe how probabilities are distributed upon events. The word probability can be defined as a measure of the relative frequency or likelihood of occurrence of an event, whose values lie between zero (impossibility) and one (certainty) (Simon et al, 1997). Probability distributions are used to graphically illustrate risk probability, representing the probability density functions. For each probability distribution, the vertical axis indicates the probability of the risk event and the relative likelihood, and the horizontal axis depicts the impact (time or cost) of the risk event (Evans et al, 2000).
3.12. Scenario Analysis Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing and estimating possible future events, considering various alternatives. It is used to manage risks and develop robust strategic plans in the face of an uncertain future (Hsia et al, 1994). Generally, scenario analysis is done for evaluating the financial or economic aspect of a project, so, it also can be defined as the estimation of the expected value of a portfolio after a given period of time, assuming specific changes in the values (McBurney and Parsons, 2003). It helps in managing risks, building consensus for change, augmenting understanding about the future, and monitoring progress and scanning changes in the environment (Maack, 2001).
3.13. Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity analysis helps in determining which risks have the most potential impact on the project (PMBOK, 2008). It is used to figure out how sensitive a model is to varied input parameters of the model and to changes in its structure (Saltelli, 2004). This can be done by
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varying the values of one input and observing which of the outputs change and how this change affects the project objectives. It tries to provide a ranking of the model inputs based on their relative contributions to model variability and uncertainty. It also can be defined as the assessment of the impact of changes in input values on model outputs (Frey and Patil, 2002) or as the study of how the variation in the output of a model can be apportioned, qualitatively or quantitatively, among model inputs (Saltelli et al, 2000).
3.14. Fuzzy Logic Fuzzy logic was first suggested in 1965 (Zadeh, 1965) to cover those situations that require an approximate reasoning about the solution rather than accurate. It is characterized by adapting to the real world, i.e. it quantifies the belongingness for values by linguistic concepts (Abdelgawad and Fayek, 2010). Fuzzy logic possesses the ability to mimic the human mind to effectively employ modes of reasoning that are approximate rather than exact. It is one of the tools used to model a multi-input or multi-output system (Biacino and Gerla, 2002).
3.15. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Analytic Hierarchy process, developed by Thomas Saaty in the 1970s (Saaty, 1980), is a method for organizing and analyzing complex decisions and is based on mathematical and psychological sciences. It helps in solving complicated decision problems taking into account tangible and intangible aspects. Thus, involves the experience, the knowledge and the intuition of the decision makers (Forman and Gass, 2001). It involves a classification of decision elements and their corresponding alternatives, weighing each of the elements and making comparisons between possible pairs of each group (matrix). It is very useful in decision-making, where teams of people are working on complex decisions with high risks and uncertainties and, additionally, implicates human perceptions and judgments, with longterm repercussions (Bhushan and Raj, 2004).
3.16. Break Even Analysis Break-even analysis is a useful tool to study the relationship between fixed costs, variable costs and returns. This technique is also known as cost-volume-profit analysis. It is widely used by production management and management accountants (Schweitzer et al, 1992, Guidry et al, 1998). It is a continual way of thinking used by people potentially everywhere in the organization as it deals with a variety of decisions (Cafferty and Wentworth, 2011). It is based on mathematics: it is the quantity of units that must be sold to achieve breakeven point (Richards, 2011). The main advantage of break-even analysis is that it points out the relationship between costs, production volume and returns (Hinterhuber, 2004).
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4. CONCLUSIONS
All the analyzed techniques are useful for decision-making, and all decision-making implies considering the risks of the alternatives. In some of the techniques, risk is better or more precisely quantified than others, but all of them have some things in common: they require a medium to high level of experience, time resources and detailed data. Although the quantitative techniques use more resources than the qualitative techniques and are much more complex, the results obtained are also much more detailed and, in terms of risks, these are well analyzed. After studying these 16 techniques, it can be concluded that 3 techniques (interviewing, probability distributions and EMV) are intermediary: they are necessary to implement the others. The survey results hint at possible complexity or lack of knowledge of techniques among the construction management professionals, which motivate them to opt for qualitative and easily performable techniques. This, in turn, reduces the efficiency of PRM process and in spite of frequent risk management, the industry still gets taken by surprise and the upsets occur. The implications also guide towards either improving the existing techniques for increasing their applicability or creating new ones altogether. The first direction means the implementation of some methods presented for the solution of other real problems while the second direction means improving upon the state of knowledge in quantitative methods by introducing and/or developing new or more advanced technologies, keeping the understandability and usability in mind.
REFERENCES
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Biacino, L., Gerla, G., 2002. Fuzzy logic, continuity and effectiveness. Archive for Mathematical Logic, Vol. 41, No. 7, pp. 643667. Cafferty, M. and Wentworth, J., 2011. Break-Even Analysis The Definitive Guide to Cost-Volum-Profit. (K. A. Merchan, Ed.) Managerial Accounting Collection. Carbone, T. and Tippett, D., 2004. Project Risk Management Using the Project Risk FMEA. Engineering Management Journal, Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 2835. Clemens, P.L., 2003. Fault Tree Analysis, Tutorial, www.sverdrup.com, 4th Edition. De Marco, A., 2011. Project Management for Facility Constructions. Springer, Heidelberg. Dey, P.K., 2002. Project Risk Management: A Combined Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree Approach. Cost Engineering, Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 1326. Evans, M., Hastings, N. and Peacock, B., 2000. Statistical Distributions. John Wiley and Sons. Flyvbjerg, B., Bruzelius, N., and Rothengatter, W., 2003. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. Cambridge University Press. Forman, E. and Gass, S., 2001. The analytical hierarchy process an exposition. Operations Research, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 469487. Frey, H. and Patil, S., 2002. IDENTIFICATION AND REVIEW OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS METHODS. Risk Analysis, Vol. 22, No. 3, pp. 553577. Griffis, F.H. and Christodoulou, S., 2000. Construction Risk Analysis Tool for Determining Liquidated Damages Insurance Premiums: A Case Study. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Vol. 126, No. 6, pp 407413. Guidry, F., Horrigan, J., Craycraft, C., 1998. CVP analysis: A new look. Journal of Managerial Issues, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 74 85. Hendrickson, C. and Au, T., 1989. Project Management for Construction: Fundamental Concepts for Owners, Engineers, Architects and Builders. First Edition, USA: Prentice-Hall. Hillson, D., 2004. Effective Opportunity Management for Projects: Exploiting Positive Risk. Marcel Dekker Inc. Hinterhuber, A., 2004. Towards Value-Based PricingAn Integrative Framework for Decision Making. Industrial Marketing Management, Vol. 33, No. 8, pp. 765778. Hsia, P., Samuel, J., Gao, J., Kung, D., Toyoshima, Y., Chen, C., 1994. Formal Approach to Scenario Analysis. IEEE Software, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 3341. Hulett, D., 2004. USING QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS TO SUPPORT STRATEGIC DECISIONS. Consult GEE Executive Briefings in Business Risk Management. Hulett, D., 2006. Decision Tree Analysis for the Risk Averse Organization. PMI EMEA Congress in Madrid, Spain, May 9, 2006. Jun, G. and Haiyan, W., 2010. Quantitative Risk Analysis Approach on Construction Project Feasibility Research. International Conference on E-Business and E-Government, icee, pp.27492752. Kerzner, H., 2003. Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling 8th Edition. Wiley. ISBN 0-471-22577-0. Kim, S. and Bajaj, D., 2000. Risk management in construction: an approach for contractors in South Korea. Cost Engineering, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 3844. Klastorin, T., 2003. Project Management: Tools and Trade-offs 3rd Edition. Wiley. Krane, H.P., Rolstads, A. and Olsson, O.E., 2010. Categorizing Risks in Seven Large Projects Which Risks Do The Projects Focus On? Project Management Journal, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 8186. Lutz, R. and Woodhouse, R., 1999. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis. Wiley Encyclopedia of Electrical and Electronics Engineering.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Maack, J., 2001. Scenario analysis: a tool for task managers. In: Social Development Paper no. 36. Social Analysis: Selected Tools and Techniques. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Malcolm, D. G., Roseboom, J. H., Clark, C. E. and Fazar, W., 1959. Application of a Technique for Research and Development Program Evaluation. OPERATIONS RESEARCH, Vol. 7, No. 5, pp. 646669. McBurney, P., Parsons, S., 2003. Chance Discovery and Scenario Analysis. New Generation Computing, Vol, 21, No. 1, pp. 1322. Mehdi, E. and Ghodsi, R., 2011. Risk Assessment of Construction Projects Using Network based Adaptive Fuzzy System. International Journal of Academic Research, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 411417. Mullur, A., Mattson, C. and Messac, A., 2003. New Decision Matrix Based Approach for Concept Selection Using Linear Physical Programming. Multidisciplinary Design and Opimization Laboratory. Olivas, R., 2007. Decision Trees. A Primer for Decision-making Professionals. Ortmeier, F. and Schellhorn, G., 2006. Formal Fault Tree Analysis: Practical Experiences, Proceedings of AVoCS 2006. Pearl, J., 1990. Reasoning with belief functions: an analysis of compatibility. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, Vol. 4, pp. 363390. Pengelly, J., 2002. Monte carlo methods. http://www.cs.otago.ac.nz/cosc453/student_tutorials/monte_carlo.pdf. PMBOK, 2008. Project Management Institute. PMI, 2009. Practice Standard for Project Risk Management. Poon, S.W., Chen, H., and Hao, G.L., 2004. Cost Risk Management in West Rail Project of Hong Kong. AACE International Transactions, pp. 15. Raftery, J.,1994. Risk analysis in project management. London: E & FN Spon, 1994. Raz, T. and Michael, E., 1999. Use and benefits of tools for project risk management. International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 19, pp. 917. Raz, T., Shenhar, A.J. and Dvir, D., 2002. Risk management, project success, and technological uncertainty. R&D Management, Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. 101109. Rechard, R., 1999. Historical Relationship Between Performance Assessment for Radioactive Waste Disposal and Other Types of Risk Assessment in the United States Vol. 19. Springer Netherlands. Richards, D., 2011. How to Do a Breakeven Analysis. http://entrepreneurs.about.com/od/businessplan/a/breakeven.htm. About.com Enterpreneurs
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SUPPLY CHAIN OF A HIGHWAY REPAVING PROJECT CASE STUDY OF A2 HIGHWAY SECTION IN HOLLAND
Zbigniew Tokarski University of Technology and Life Sciences, Bydgoszcz, Poland, karolius7@interia.pl Anna Sobotka AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow, Poland, sobotka@agh.edu.pl Dorota Pawlus AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow, Poland, dpawlus@agh.edu.pl Agata Czarnigowska Lublin University of Technology, Lublin, Poland, a.czarnigowska@pollub.pl
Abstract The objective of this paper is to present a case-study of a Dutch highway project involving repavement with porous asphalt in Kompaktasphalt technology. The aim of the survey is to assess how the organization of works, selection of materials and methods affects the project efficiency in terms of speed of works, and what are scale and reasons for disruptions of the workflow. Observation of the works and on-site measurements were taken to record organisation and method of repaving processes. The focus was on asphalt mix flows from the batching plant to the construction site, and related information flows. Digital cameras (one located in the batching plant, the other on the building site) and GPS systems were used to facilitate data collection. Process duration distributions were defined on the basis of numerous observations, providing insight into scale of expected disruptions to the flow of materials and input for the models. Rates of server utilization provide insight into the quality of organization of the works, and may be the basis for comparisons with other projects, or with future project plans options. Keywords: supply chain, repaving, machine sets.
1. INTRODUCTION
The network of Polish highways is still in its development stage. Thus, there is little experience with highway repair problems. Moreover, some technologies already established in the world have been just working their way into Polish road building practice. To learn from the yearslong experience of Dutch road builders, considered European leaders in innovation (Caeterling
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et al., 2011), a research project Analysis of Modern Duch Road Construction Technologies (within the framework of EU Leonardo da Vinci Programme) was initiated in 1999. It resulted in many years of cooperation between the University of Technology and Life Sciences in Bydgoszcz, Poland, and the Brabantse Asfaltcentrale in Helmond, Holland. The paper presents a case-study of a Dutch highway project involving repavement with porous asphalt in Kompaktasphalt technology. The aim of the survey is to assess how the organization of works, selection of materials and methods affects the project efficiency in terms of speed of works, and what are scale and reasons for disruptions of the workflow.
2. POROUS ASPHALT BACKGROUND

Porous asphalt concrete is defined as a mineral-asphalt mixture designed in a way that provides large content of interconnected voids that allow for air and water flow through the material (PN-EN 13108-7) It was invented with a thought that, if used for wearing courses, it is likely to reduce wet skid (due to better drainage of rainwater), and traffic noise. The technology appeared in nineteen-seventies in the USA. The first country to experiment with porous asphalt in Europe was France, building first trial sections in 1977, and, as the results were promising, the technology has spread throughout Belgium, Netherlands (where porous asphalt became mandatory on primary roads), Sweden, Austria, Germany, UK and Japan (Pilat and Radziszewski, 2007, Judycki and Jaskula, 2004). Porous asphalt seems to answer the requirements for a perfect wearing course with high content of coarse-grain fraction (8387%) the structure does not deform under traffic loads, the surface is rough, which increases safety. In wet conditions, due to water being quickly removed from the surface, there is no aquaplaning, and in the night, dangerous reflection of light is considerably limited. Also the traffic noise-reduction qualities cause growing interest in this type of wearing courses (e.g. Beckenbauer et al, 2008, Sybilski et al., 2005). Apart from being used for road wearing courses, it finds other applications in storm-water management in urban areas (Gomez-Ullate et al., 2011). However, a material with open pores is potentially more vulnerable to environmental loads. The long-term impact of high and low temperatures (Huuman et al, 2010, Miradi et al, 2009), clogging with dust (Beckenbauer et al, 2008, Lorenzen, 2009) on the properties of porous asphalt structure is being carefully investigated. The technology is being developed, and the methods of improving it (e.g. McGhee and Clark, 2010, Jiang et al, 2010) or the maintenance of its applications (Shirke and Shuler, 2009) are looked for worldwide. Experience with porous asphalts in Poland is quite limited. There exist related standards (PNEN 13108-7: 2008) and recommendations (WT-2, 2010). However, there are no specific maintenance-related guidelines. The Polish research community interest in this technology dates to early nineteen-nineties (Tokarski et al., 1999), but practical applications are limited to trial sections (Ruttmar et al., 2010).
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3. COMPACT POROUS ASPHALT PAVEMENT

Compact asphalt paving involves placement of two layers of different composition (either wearing course with binder course, or binder course with base) in one operation. The advantages of concurrent placing hot on hot are following (Jablonski, 2005): wearing course can be thinner, which means savings on expensive material, the bound between wearing course and binder course is firmer (hot on hot), thus the top layer is less likely to deform under load, heat capacity of two layers placed together is obviously greater than heat capacity of layers placed separately, so time for compaction is longer (as the function of layer thickness), and the negative impact of the weather is reduced. the process is quicker than in the case of separate placing, the compaction degree is higher with the same compaction procedure. The placing process is fully mechanised, though various types of machine sets are available in the market (figure 1)
Figure 1: Machine set for compact asphalt paving: 1 paver, 2 mobile feeder, 3 upper container (wearing course mix), 4 lower container (binder course mix)
Compact asphalt, as quick in placing, has found application not only in construction of new roads, but also to repave the existing ones the works, taking less time, cause less disruption to normal traffic. However, as the material consumption is more intensive (material for two layers has to be provided concurrently, instead of in sequence), the logistics of the process has to be considered carefully, with respect to asphalt plant capacities and assuring availability of adequate number of transport means.
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4. CASE STUDY: A-2 MOTORWAY REPAVING PROJECT

4.1. Project description Porous asphalts qualities deteriorate over time, as the pavement ages and collects dirt. Depending on the traffic conditions, its service life is estimated to be 812 years. In September 2006, the service life for the wearing course of the A2 motorway section in Brabant province, Holland, came to its end, and the section was to be modernised. The projects objectives were defined as: increasing travel speed at satisfying safety levels. According to surveys, the average daily traffic volume was 15 thousand trucks. The works were supervised by the public agency, Rijkwaterstaat Directie Noord Brabant. Figure 2 shows the location of the analysed works: the 6 km long section between the towns of Vught and Best. The project itself was considered untypical and innovative, and a number of organisational problems had to be solved: the road section was located in the areas owned by many private owners, and the negative impact of the works on them had to be minimised, new technology was to be used, which was related to many risks, and the contractual liability period was 7 years, which added to the contractors risk. The time for completion was limited to one weekend (from 21:00 on Friday to 5:00 on Monday), when three lanes of the motorway could be closed to traffic.
Figure 2: Location of the works
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4.2. The works The works included: providing and monitoring detours, installation and maintanance of road signs, milling the old wearing course of porous asphalt (5 cm) removing old drainage system priming the surface, placing compact porous asphalt on the whole width of one carriageway (asphalt mix ZOAB 11/16 as the binding course and ZOAB 4/8 as the wearing course) and compacting, installing new drainage system, placing asphalt mix (ZOAB 0/16) on the sections of bridges and other engineering structures on the route, Asphalt mixes were provided by two asphalt plants, and delivery of materials, delivery of asphalt mixes, milling, and congestion detection system installation were subcontracted.
4.3. Resources The milling process was served by 10 trucks (8x4) bringing the rubble to the batching plants, 6 milling machines (two of milling width 3,8m, two of milling width of 2,10m, one of milling width of 1 m and one 0,50 m). Two vehicles equipped with cranes were used for horizontal transport of the material, two further vehicles were used for removing debris. Four vehicles were busy by removing stains, and three by surface cleaning. Paving was served by two batching plants. One vehicle was used for spraying with emulsion, another one for spraying with water. The mix was placed by means of two pavers of different sizes, accompanied by two mobile feeders. The asphalt mix was delivered by a changing number of 4-, 5- and 6-axle trucks. Six tandem rollers were used. The works were conducted by three teams working in 12-hour shifts.
4.4. Data collection methods Observation of the works and on-site measurements were taken to record organisation and method of repaving processes. The focus was on asphalt mix flows from the batching plant to the construction site, and related information flows. Digital cameras (one located in the batching plant, the other on the building site) and GPS systems were used to facilitate data collection. The data were meant for constructing a waiting-line model of the works.
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4.5. Mixture loading process The deliveries of asphalt mix were conducted by means of transport of various capacity. To capture the average workflow, loading time was calculated per unit the unit being 40 Mg of the mix. The loading cycle comprises: entering the batching plant, the drivers reporting to the staff, preparation for loading, waiting, taking position at the loading point on the scales, loading, leaving the scales, securing the load, collecting the documents, and is completed as the truck leaves the batching plant premises. The load times, expressed in seconds per unit (i.e. 40 Mg), in consecutive measurements, together with their empirical and theoretical distribution plots, are shown in Figure 3.
24
20
Frequency
20 16 12 8 4 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Frequency
16 12 8 4 0 0 200 400 600 800
Duration of loading
Duration of loading
a) Mean: 643.15 s/unit
b) Mean: 793.33 s/unit
Figure 2: Loading times (second/40 Mg) in consecutive measuements: a) 25th 26th August, b) 26th27th August
The decreasing trend line in the first day may be related with disturbances usual for starting the work and learning curve effect; the trend in the second day (growing loading times) indicates fatigue with two days of intensive work. The distributions may be the basis of comparisons with other projects with respect to quality of organisation and the scale of disruption.
4.6. Mixture transportation The distance from the Helmond batching plant to the construction site was 34 km, whereas the plant in Stein (being the emergency backup only) was 97 km away from the analysed road
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section. 3-R GPS devices installed in the trucks were used for tracking the vehicles speed and position on the route. Additionally, selected vehicles were equipped with automatic data loggers, and video cameras located at the exit from the batching plant and at the construction site was used for checks. The measurements were being conducted continuously over 12-hour period in the night on 25th26th and 26th27th August. The truck speed records (Figure 3) show that there is a pattern related with traffic conditions and time of the day. Size of the vehicle was found to have no impact on the speed.
Figure 3: Speed of asphalt mix delivering trucks consecutive measurements
4.7. Unloading process As for unloading efficiency, it was found to be related with the size of the vehicle (the greater the truck capacity, the more mix is unloaded per hour) though, as the machines work in sets, the process of placing asphalt affects unloading. The process of unloading has to be controlled carefully as two types of material are provided in parallel.
a)
On 25th26th August
b)
On 26th27th August
Figure 4: Duration of unloading mixture into big paver
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a) On 25th26th August
b)
On 26th27th August
Figure 5: Duration of unloading mixture into small paver
a) Big paver
b)
Small paver
Figure 6: Breaks in paving process recorded on 25th26th April
Figure 4 presents records of unloading into the bigger (8 m paving width) paver, and Figure 5 into the smaller paver (4 m paving width), taken in consecutive measures on two days. The unloading process involves some interruptions some trucks are unloaded in part, wait for other trucks with the other type of mixture to be unloaded and return to finish unloading. Record of these breaks is shown in Figure 6. The breaks in the unloading process were generally longer in the beginning of the works, as the machines had to be calibrated. The time of the day was also found to affect the breaks they occurred longer in the night-time. Two peaks in Figure 6a disturb the trend lines they were however related with work stoppage. Similarly, the time of the day affects efficiency of paving Figure 7 illustrates this observation with the example of the big paver output (Mg/h) in consecutive measurements taken during the second day of works; the darker bar divides night-time (22:0006:00) from day-time (06:0022:00). This fact, related with human factor and poorer visibility can be accounted for in scheduling future projects.
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Figure 7: Paving efficiency on 26th27th April lower in night-time
3. CONCLUSIONS
Repair of the existing roads are unavoidable and necessary for traffic safety reasons. New materials and technologies are being developed to provide value for money, but seamless execution of works, with minimum effect on normal traffic, is a demanding task for the project team. The real challenge for the repaving contractor is the organization of works with minimum disruption to traffic and within usually extremely short time for completion enforced by the contract, especially if the works are conducted in congested sections of motorways. Thus, project logistic has to be planned carefully. A supply chain for road repaving projects is a result of coordination of the work of asphalt mix suppliers, transportation units, surface milling team and paving team. The configuration of this chain is inevitably highly specific to location of the works and changeable as the works progress along the route (distance to the mixture provider, transport routes etc.). Scheduling is thus complex. Input for such scheduling comes from experience: on-site measurements and process analyses. In the paper, the authors presented a case study of a highway repaving project, involving materials and methods considered innovative, that have not found wider application in Poland yet. They are however of great interest, as potentially economical. Observation of the works conducted by the experienced team provided benchmarks for future projects and insight into the scale of disruptions of the workflow (distribution of time of particular processes), useful in constructing waiting line or simulation models of the processes in search for optimal solutions. Naturally, these distributions are specific to particular circumstances. Especially, processes related with transport of materials are highly affected by traffic conditions and configuration of transport routes. Distribution parameters of service times at the asphalt batching plant and at the building site are of more universal character.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
REFERENCES
Beckenbauer, T, Weissenberger, W., Kuehne R., Attenberger, A., 2008. Langezeiterfahrungen mit Zweischichtigem Offenporigem Asphalt in Inneroertlicher Situation. Larmbekampfung, 3 (6), pp. 252260. Caeterling, J.S., Di Benedetto, C.A., Doree, A.G., Halman, J.M., Song M., 2011. Technology development projects in road infrastructure: The relevance of government championing behaviour. Technovation, 31, pp. 270283. Gomez-Ullate, E., Castillo-Lopez, E., Castro-Fresno, D., Bayon, J.R., 2011. Analysis and Contrast of Different Pervious Pavements for Management of Storm-Water in Parking Area in Nothern Spain. Water resources management, 25 (6), pp. 15251535 Pilat J., Radziszewski P., 2007: Nawierzchnie asfaltowe, WKiL, Warszawa (in Polish) PN-EN 13108-7:2008 Mieszanki mineralno-asfaltowe. Wymagania. Cz 7: Asfalt porowaty (Polish version of EN 131087:2006/AC:2008 Bituminous mixtures-Material specifications-Part 7: Porous Asphalt) Huuman, M., Mo, L., Woldekidan, M.F., 2010. Porous asphalt ravelling in cold weather conditions, International Journal of Pavement Research and Technology, 3, pp. 110118. McGhee, K.K., Clark, T.M., 2010. Functionally optimized wearing course: Installation report. Transportation Research Record, 2180, pp.150155 Miradi, M., Molenaar, A.A.A., Van De Ven, M.F.C., 2009. Knowledge discovery and data mining using artificial intelligence to unravel porous asphalt concrete in the Netherlands. Studies in Computational Intelligence, 259, pp. 107176. Lorenzen, A., 2009. Low-noise road traffic The German research program, LeiStra2. Noise Control Engineering Journal, 57 (2), pp. 148154 Jabonski K: Mozliwoci stosowania technologii asfaltowych warstw kompaktowych do budowy autostrad, Drogownictwo, 2, pp. 4853. Jiang, W., Sha, A.-M., Pei, J.-Z., Xiao, J.-J., 2010. Research on key technologies of porous asphalt concrete compaction. Journal of Wuhan University of technology, 32 (15), pp. 1316. Judycki J., Jaskua P., 2004. Nowoczesne nawierzchnie asfaltowe (Modern asphalt pavements), Proceedings of XLVII Techniczne Dni Drogowe, Szczyrk, 1315 October, pp. 7594. Ruttmar I., Oracz T., Dudek A., Krl, J., 2010. Eksploatacja i utrzymanie nawierzchni z asfaltu porowatego. Warsztaty: Zastosowanie nowoczesnych technologii w konstrukcjach drogowych (Workshop: Application of Modern Technology in Road Construction), Zakopane, 1517 September 2010. Shirke, N.A., Shuler, S., 2009. Cleaning porous pavements using a reverse flush process. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 135 (11), pp. 832838. Sybilski D., Jezierska D., Ejsmont, J., Gardziejczyk, W., Dzienis, T., Mechowski, T., 2005. Sprawozdanie kocowe. Ocena wpywu typu i technologii wykonania nawierzchni drogowej na haaliwo ruchu drogowego i jego uciliwo dla rodowiska. (Final report. Assessment of the impact of pavement type and placement methods on the traffic noise generation and its impact on the environment). IBDM, Warsaw, 2005, http://www.gddkia.gov.pl/userfiles/articles/p/prace-naukowo-badawcze-zrealizow_3435/ /documents/ws-05_haas.pdf
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Tokarski Z., Banach J., Nowicki K., Peszynski K., 1999. The analysis of modern technologies in road building implemented in Holand, LEONARDO DA VINCI Programme Grant Report, Bruxelles. WT-2: 2010. Nawierzchnie asfaltowe na drogach krajowych. Mieszanki mineralno-asfaltowe. Wymagania techniczne. Zacznik nr 2 do Zarzdzenia nr 102 Generalnego Dyrektora Drg Krajowych i Autostrad z dnia 19 listopada 2010 (Asphalt pavements on national roads. Asphalt-aggregate mixtures. Technical requirements. Appendix no. 2 to the Instruction of the General Director for National Roads and Motorways of 19th November 2010).
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FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT ASPECTS OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

Tams Tth Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Department of Finance, Budapest, Hungary, totht@finance.bme.hu Zoltn Sebestyn Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Department of Management and Corporate Economics, Budapest, Hungary, sebestyen@mvt.bme.hu Mikls Hajdu Szent Istvn University, Ybl Mikls Faculty of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Department of Construction Management, Budapest, Hungary, hajdu.miklos@ybl.szie.hu
Abstract The traditional methods of risk management primarily focus on the potential hazards of the execution phase of construction projects, mostly analyzing the impacts of arbitrarily chosen individual risk categories of the project. However, risk management should reflect also on the real exposure perceived by the project owners point of view as well, since some individual elements of the total risk of the project are diversifying in the owners portfolio. The prevalent project management methods are not suitable for taking this issue into consideration. In this paper, a risk management approach is presented, which is able to grasp the non-diversifiable part of the project risks in the owners project portfolio, such as relevant risks. Further analyses are carried out to test whether the Capital Asset Pricing Model, specifically its parameters can be applied for relevant risk estimations. In this article, a course of action is also presented to obtain the applicable risk-free rate and risk premium values. The main steps of our approach, considerations and implications are presented through the review of the proposed risk assessment methodology for project companies in the construction industry. Keywords: financial risk management, project management, risk assessment methodology
1. RISKS IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

Project managements general definition of risk has undergone great changes recently. At first, risks were only regarded as possible negative consequences of events or tasks (see (Rowe, 1977)). Later, an extended definition of risk appeared, according to which risk is the
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deviation from the expected value of an arbitrary parameter in either direction (see e.g. (Flanagan, 1993)). The foundations of risk management were laid gradually. In the beginning, the literature concentrated on specifying risk classes; then papers were focused on handling these. By the 1980s the application of risk management in the construction industry became a distinct professional field. Consequently, numerous industry-specific applications and research came to light, whose aim was the efficient management of risks. In the conception phase, Uher and Toakley studied the effects of structural and cultural factors on risk management (Uher at al, 1999). They found that most experts were familiar with the concepts of risk management, yet they did not apply them in the initial phase of the projects. In their point of view, the spread of risk management within the organizations was hindered by the shortcomings of skills, knowledge and dedication. All this was especially notable due to the fact that empirical analyses also proved the advantages of risk management. For example, Baloi and Price demonstrated an unambiguous positive correlation between efficient risk management and the success of the project (Baloi et al, 2003l). In short, the goal of risk management in the project management paradigm is to determine which risks to take into consideration and which ones have to be avoided, also how to handle them (Zou at al, 2007). According to this thread of the literature, the appropriate increase of the degree of risk-taking may open up new possibilities of value creation. If we are able to manage certain risks (e.g. changes in maintenance costs) better than others, then it is worth taking more of those, while those risks which we do not fully understand the mechanisms behind, or in case of which we are not good enough at estimating its parameters or managing them have to be avoided (e.g. foreign currency risk). This approach is demonstrated by e.g. Girotra and Netessine through case studies of operating organizations (Girotra et al, 2011). They found that many are able to create value by taking more risks. The example of Roll-Royce is mentioned in their paper. Operating aircraft engines involves great risks. In case of engine failures, the aircrafts could be down for works for weeks, while the reparation also costs money. Smaller air companies are especially exposed to this risk. The above-mentioned company was the first to enter into contracts, in which hourly operation was defined. Clients were concerned neither with the time nor with the cost of the reparation anymore. Since Rolls Royce was able to manage the risks related to broken-down engines better than its customers, so they took the risks from their customer for risk premium. Similarly, in case of railway vehicles, Bombardier contracted based on kilometers run, while Caterpillar contracted based on the amount of earth transported. Both companies undertook those risks that they could handle in a more efficient way than their clients. Meanwhile, a new approach has developed in the financial literature, according to which risks could be divided into two groups: relevant (non-diversifiable) and unique (diversifiable) risks (see e.g. (Lintner, 1965), (Markowitz, 1959), (Mossin, 1966) and (Sharpe, 1964)). It seems that the two directions the research took have not crossed each other yet, in spite of the fact that risk management is obviously the common subset of the two paradigms. In this paper, we attempt to describe the aims and processes of risk management more precisely by merging the two paradigms.
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2. STEPS OF RISK MANAGEMENT

The literature of project management in the construction industry usually splits risk management into three steps: risk identification (and classification), risk analysis (including quantitative and qualitative ranking) and reaction. As the steps of risk management have to be monitored in the course of the realization phase, some authors regard tracking as the fourth step of risk management (see e.g. (Al-Bahar et al, 1990)). According to Flanagan and Norman, risks should be classified based on their consequences, types and effects (Flanagan, 1993). In their point of view, risks can be put into these three categories, if the tool is the full-scale general system approach combined with the framework of the work breakdown structure (WBS). Chapman suggests that risks ought to be classified based on an absolutely different aspect: the place of occurrence (Chapman, 2001). In this case the classes are: environment, industry, client and project. Nevertheless, in case of construction projects, Klemetti recommends to form external and internal risk source sets (Klemetti, 2006). The most widespread methods name the following risk classes among others (Madcsi, 2005), (Shen at al, 2001). The economic and political environment in which the project is realized provides the country risk. In some cases, the political risk constitutes a separate category. The construction and scheduling risk involves time and cost overruns, problems related to technical, quality, design and environmental questions, permits, licenses and vis major cases. Technical risks often form an independent category. Exchange rate, inflation and interest rate risks belong to the class of financial risks. Changes of the environment and the correctness of forecast are regarded as business risks, also known as market risks. The regulatory environment determines legal risks. In addition, the team executing the project and the management methods could also involve risks, the so-called management risks. Another branch of the research examines the human components in risk management, and their effects. For example, Thevendran and Mawdesley divided the human factors affecting the risks of construction projects into three groups: the individual level of human factors includes elements related to abilities, skills, knowledge, stress, motivation, emotional and cultural characteristics. On the project team level there are management, communication, coordination, tasks and their control. The organizational level contains systems and procedures, organizational politics and norms (Thevendran at al, 2001). Risk assessment is one of the most important elements of the process, which has the largest pool of tools. Applying various methods, ranging from the simplest methods from the early years of project management to the latest fuzzy-based mathematical models, can perform assessment. The applied methods include Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity analysis, critical path method, fault-tree analysis, event-tree analysis, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) etc. (for the more advanced methods see e.g. (KarimiAzari et al, 2011)). Although the literature presents a wide spectrum of ideas concerning risk management, it does not offer enough for practical applications, and leaves questions open, such as: how can
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the risk of a specific element of a risk class be precisely determined and what do the results of the existing methods really mean? The following chapters explain the known steps and processes of risk management from the financial aspect of defining risks. Furthermore, through examples of project companies in the construction industry, the definition, goals and processes of risk management are going to be put in a different aspect. It will also be shown that the known risk classes and types do not reflect well to the real exposure of the project perceived by the project owner. Therefore, the paper recommends a new way to approach the aim and processes of risk management better.
3. RELEVANT RISK OF AN INVESTMENT

Based on Markowitzs modern portfolio theory (MPT), risk-averse, rational individuals necessarily tend to hold investment portfolios (Markowitz, 1959). The reason for this is that the expected return of their portfolio (rp) is equal to the weighted sum of the constituent assets expected returns (ri):
E (rp ) = a1E (r1 ) + a2 E (r2 ) + K + an E (rn )
a
i =1
(1)
i
=1
where ai is the weights of component asset i. While, due to the stochastic relationships (ki,j) existing among the deviation of the returns of the investment opportunities ((ri)), the deviation of the return of the portfolio ((rp)) is less than the weighted sum of the deviation of the return of the components:
2 2 2 2 (rp ) = a12 2 (r1 ) + a2 (r2 ) + K + an (rn ) + 2ki , j ai (ri )a j (rj ) i ,j n ,n
(2)
a
i =1
= 1 and i j , ij ji
The consequence of this notion is that when the riskiness of the return of a project is analyzed, then a significant amount of the total risk (deviation) is simply eliminated owing to the holding of an investment portfolio. However, traditionally the total risk of the project is distributed within the risk classes; as a consequence, the fact that only a fraction of the risks is taken by the owner is ignored. Continuing the train of thought, the question arises: precisely what the extent of that fraction. Lintner, Mossin and Sharpe have given the answer (Lintner, 1965), (Mossin, 1966) and (Sharpe, 1964). The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) has been created, whose essence is that assuming that the investors knowledge of the world is identical (their expectations
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are homogeneous), they aim at holding the so-called market portfolio as the risky part of their portfolio. Then it can be deduced that the relevant risk of every investment (i) can be expressed as the function of the deviation of the market portfolio (rM), the expected return of the investment opportunity (ri) and the correlation of the two parameters (ki,M):
i = ki ,M
(ri ) (rM )
(3)
According to old words of wisdom: the higher the risk, the greater the return, which can be interpreted in the light of the above, since the relevant risk (i) taken by the owner is meant by the word risk. The capital asset pricing model quantifies the above-mentioned relationship: ri = rf + i (E (rM ) rf ) (4)
where E(rM) is the expected return of the market portfolio and (rf) is the return of the riskfree investment (its calculation will be mentioned later). When making investment decisions, the owners determine their expectations concerning the return based on the value of beta. If the project is expected to have higher returns than similar business projects, it will be launched, otherwise rejected. The security market line has been investigated and specified in numerous ways, however, these variations (e.g. APT, multi-factor models) have not become widespread yet, due to the fact that they are too complex to be applied in practice and the necessary parameters are rather hard to estimate. Regarding the questions discussed in this paper, the differences between these more and more precise models are negligible, it is enough to know that, we can rely on the portfolio holding of the owners in all cases. Considering the risk analysis of projects the concepts has fundamental significance: the value of the project depends solely on the relevant risk denoted by beta. The next step for risk analysis is to investigate how each value-creating parameter (e.g. volume of sales, labor costs, exchange rates etc.) influences the expected return (or, in other words, the valuecreating ability) of the project. The question is in another way: what is the probability of the case, when the return of the project (or its internal rate of return (IRR)) is less than the average return of investments at similar risk in the capital market if the distribution of the expected value of each value-creating parameter is known. Now we have gotten to an important turn in comparison with the familiar concepts of the risk analysis topic of project management. Firstly, risks have to be analyzed based exclusively on the expected return (value-creating ability) of the project. Secondly, risk classes ought to be handle as value-creating parameters instead and we should determine the probability of that parameter changes to such an extent, which leads to the destruction of the value of the owners portfolio.
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Lets sum up what has been said so far by making concrete suggestions concerning the business plan. The financial chapter of the business plan of construction projects is based on cash-flow calculations. The estimated cash-flows are the basis of both the financial and the accounting and controlling calculations. Owing to the fact that the cash-flow estimations serve the entire financial system of the project (including the usually euro-denominated loan financing), the euro-denominated, nominal cash-flow planning is recommended, even in case of domestic projects. The profit and loss statement and the liquidity plan can be directly deduced from this, also financing can be planned based on the conditions set up by the funding bank. To determine the risk-free return (rf), the return of a nominal zero-coupon government bond of an AAA-rated, developed market (e.g. Germany) could be considered as reference, whose maturity fits the entire lifecycle of the project (which has to include the period, which results in relevant cash-flows regarding the end product). Actual inflationary expectations can be easily estimated based on the difference between the real and nominal government bond yield curves (e.g. by using the regularly updated zero-coupon yield curves on the website of the European Central Bank). Regarding the risk premium the question is: how have the degree of risk premiums changed due to recent decreases in returns? Even though the value suggested by measurement methods based on past statistics can be modified in the short run owing to e.g. a recession, the risk premium could be measured relatively well by forward-looking methods (see e.g. (Damodaran, 2008)). However, the calculations based on large firms mostly from the US have to be altered in case of domestic projects. Usually even the largest Central Eastern European and especially Hungarian companies are much smaller than the huge American firms in size. As a consequence, when estimating the risk premium of Central Eastern European investments based on data from the US, the result has to be increased by the socalled small cap premium (see e.g. (Damodaran, 2002)). The beta values can be determined based on the average beta of the real estate development industry, which is 0.64 (a useful source of beta values is e.g. http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ website), which gives the relevant risk of unlevered business activity. After substituting these parameters into formula (4), the reference return (ralt) can be determined. Our project is considered value-creating, if its return (ri) is higher than this value. Now we have grounded the substantial part of risk analysis, hereafter we have to find the extent to which each value-creating parameter can change without causing the projects expected return to be smaller than the alternative return, and also the probability of such changes to occur.
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4. UNIQUE AND TOTAL RISKS OF INVESTMENTS

According to the mainstream paradigm of business economics, concerning only the interests of the owners, assessing the unique and total risks could seem worthless. However, our experience shows that risk business (with scientific background, incredibly wide product range and markets of unimaginable size) is developing at an unbelievable rate. The strong demand for assessing risks is generally a result of the fact that the settlement of numerous questions is bound to the organization as a whole. Just think about the fact that bonuses of the management, measuring organizational performance, taxes, assessing creditworthiness, or the occurrence of bankruptcy are all connected to events on the organizational level. The organization, after all, is not only a uniquely selected portfolio of projects. If the incentives are related to the organization as a whole, in which the resources are scarce, then the total risk of the projects cash-flows and the relationships, correlations among the projects also matter. For example, being aware of the consequences of bankruptcy rules (viz. the management has a high chance of losing their jobs), management strives to filter and cover those risks that threaten the liquidity of the organization. They seek low-risk projects, which could be planned with less uncertainty. Furthermore, they try to realize projects, which can diversify each others risks within the organization. In the following chapters, those analytical methods are discussed which can be used in the course of the planning phase of construction industry investments for assessing the unique risks that are not eliminated in the project owners portfolio. These methods identify the risky components and estimate their significance. Then the majority of the risk factors can also be covered by using various tools on the capital market. All risks of organizational cashflows could be eliminated this way (for example, by insurances, futures and options contracts, appropriate agreements, etc.). However, this does not make much sense, because, on the one hand, these solutions are expensive, consequently the decrease in risks results in a decrease in the profit, on the other hand, a significant amount of the project risks has natural hedges in the organizational project portfolio. For example, the exchange rate risks of subsidiaries present on the organizational or project level in the consolidated organizational portfolio are usually diversified naturally through other countries subsidiaries. If the otherwise diversifiable risks were covered by using costly solutions, then the owners would regard this act as a waste of money: a deviation from the value maximizing investment decisions. If we know a projects risks and their effects, we can filter those components to which the projects profit-making ability is especially sensitive. Therefore a close watch can be kept on these, and, in case it is necessary, an intervention can occur. It could also be really useful to learn already in the planning phase that the project is extremely sensitive to, for instance, the volume of sales, while not at all to the planned marketing costs. In such cases, the project could be re-planned with higher marketing costs; hopefully, this would cause the volume of sales to be a less sensitive parameter.
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5. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AND ECONOMIC BREAK-EVEN POINT

In our approach, sensitivity analysis measures the sensitivity of the investment projects expected return (or value-creating ability) to the changes of each value-driver parameter (e.g. volume of sales, selling price, maintenance costs, residual value of equipment, inflation, cost of capital etc.). By applying this method, we can highlight those factors whose deviation decisively determines the deviation of the projects return. Then the critical components could be further analyzed; their estimations and calculations could be performed in a more detailed, precise way or the project can be restructured. Knowing the critical parameters is very useful in the realization and operation phases of the project as well, because these are the elements to which more attention has to be paid, since they could cause the project to go down the drain. As has been noted, first the financial model has to be made based on the project functions, where the variables take up the expected values based on the consultants estimates. Then some selected variables (or even all of them) are changed by 102030...%, and in each case the expected return is calculated. Finally, the computed values can be plotted in a coordinate system, this way the sensitivity to each variable becomes evident graphically as well. The greater the angle between the line and the x-axis, the more sensitive the project is to the changes of the given variable (Fig. 1).
Figure 1: Sensitivity analysis
In the case that can be seen on Figure 1, for instance, the unique risk (probability distribution function) of the labor costs could almost be ignored, since the change of the projects return is not significant in the realistic 10% interval. However, the probability density function of the volume of sales as a random variable can be worth examining, as with its deviation the project can easily become value-destroying. As the project showed in Figure 1 is not sensitive to the marketing costs we should consider increasing the marketing costs, in order to increase the expected value or decrease the deviation of the volume of sales.
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The ralt=10% margin (the expected return of capital markets investments with similar relevant risks) is highlighted on the diagram, making it easier to see how much the given parameter could change without causing the projects return to drop below the acceptable minimum. This value is the economic break-even point where the return of the project (ri) is equal to the cost of capital (ralt). If the change of the value-driver parameter is greater than this value, then the project becomes value-destroying. On Figure 2, for example, the economic break-even point deviates 11% from the expectations. If the density function of the sales volume is known, then by integrating over the minus infinity break-even point interval, we can determine the probability (P) of that the random variable deviates from this to a greater extent in the negative direction.
P ( x 0.11) =
0.11
f (x )d (x )
(5)
Sensitivity analysis in itself is only suitable for filtering the most significant parameters causing the total risk of the project. In order to further consequences to be drawn, the probability distribution functions of these random variables have to be determined with other methods.
Figure 2: Risk assessment based on risk analysis
Lets summarize the foregoing by making some concrete suggestions concerning construction projects. The value-creating financial parameters of a construction project can be easily collected. Generally they are the following: parameters necessary for the calculation of the cost of capital: long-term nominal risk-free return, market risk premium, unlevered industrial sector beta, loan beta (this is usually nearly zero); taxes: corporate income tax, business tax, land tax, building tax, VAT etc.;
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parameters of the loan: EURIBOR values, interest surcharge, spot EUR/HUF exchange rate, EUR and HUF inflation; project-specific parameters (investment costs, net floor area, operation costs, expected rate of rent, expected rate of occupancy etc.). If the planned processes of the project are known precisely, all possible variables expected value can be calculated based on these basic data (e.g. cash-flow, net income, dividends, expected forward exchange rate, working capital needs, debt service, debt service coverage ratio, project return the list can be continued). From a financial aspect, in a construction project typically three bottlenecks can be identified: liquidity has to be maintained, the expected return of the project has to be greater than the cost of capital, and the debt coverage ratio cannot drop below the value specified by the loan contract (including losses coming from risks of missing contract deadlines). Basically risk assessment should analyze the probability of the occurrence of these events. The expected value and deviation of all variables from the list above, except for the projectspecific parameters, can be determined based on statistical data. In such instances, the break-even point calculation can serve as a way to check whether the sensitivity of the parameters means real risk to liquidity, and to the expected return being less than the alternative return. Due to the fact that a construction project company does not usually possess competences to manage these risks, the projects processes (e.g. the contracts with subcontractors, financing conditions, dividend paying conditions etc.) have to be modified, re-planned until the probability of the occurrence of the above-mentioned events becomes negligible. Lets see some examples for this: The parameters related to the capital market alternative can typically be estimated rather precisely. In case of proper business plans, the probability of finding significant estimation errors is very low, thus it is not going to be discussed in this paper. Regarding the loans, it is worth noting that credit institutions participating in the financing of real estate development investments do not offer loans in such cases, when there is a real chance for losing the sum lent out. The bank compensates the risk of payment by over-insuring the invested amount. For example, they can ask for surety, bank guarantee or secure the loan against the properties, bank accounts owned by the investor. They can even monitor the latter one, or only post-finance the execution. If the project fails, the land and the building on it will serve as a cover of the loans transferred so far by the bank. However, before resorting to this, the bank draws down on the bank guarantee, calls upon the surety, and assigns the remaining claims to an institution, which specializes in debt management. Applying any of these latter methods is expensive for the credit institution, mainly due to the fact that they have to take into account the loss of the profit from the interests. Consequently, it is not at all in the credit institutions interest for the project to become insolvent. As a result, it does everything to decrease the risk of payback to the minimum.
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In any case, the primary method for managing the risks related to the interest repayment of loans is to make the currency of the loan match the currency of the income, and to require a huge (2040%) annual debt coverage ratio in the plans. It could typically happen in case of the Hungarian real estate development projects with mostly euro-denominated debt that exchange rate risk appears: the planning is eurodenominated, while the accounting with the subcontractors is forint-denominated. In such instances, the weakening of the forint would be advantageous, since it would be cheaper to build, and fewer loans should be drawn down. Consequently, the payment installments would also be lower. However, the possibility of the strengthening of the forint means a real liquidity risk, as the cost of the construction would be higher than planned (there may not be extra sources, reserves planned for that), as a result the business can easily go bankrupt. Furthermore, the exchange rates can change constantly; therefore, the worst possible combination can also occur: short-term strengthening of the forint, then lasting weakening (which would narrow the liquidity of the operation phase). The operation phases sensitivity to the exchange rate can be simply eliminated by e.g. euro-denominated contracts for the rents and operation. The critical issue of real estate projects is the increase of the subcontractors costs in the realization phase compared to the planned values. Owing to the fact that all market players are aware of this, the fundamental principle of real estate development business is that we must stick to the cost plan. The traditional risk management methods of project management typically measure and manage the low-bound deviation from the cost plan; this is regarded as a risk. From this point of view, the direction of traditional project managements development is absolutely understandable. The above-mentioned exchange rate risks can be covered by futures or options contracts or holding reserves for this purpose, apart from the euro-denominated contracts. Foreign exchange futures can be entered into in almost all schemes on the OTC markets. In this instance, the exchange risk can be covered by, for example, a forward outrights bid, where forints are exchanged for euros at a fixed rate. In case of futures contracts, usually 23% of the contracted sum should be put on the bank account as a cover. Since construction works are performed in sections, in case of the strengthening of the forint, the appropriate part of the position has to be closed, when the payments are made. This way the profit resulting from this operation is going to cover the losses caused by the fact that the contract has become more expensive, while the previously mentioned cover of 23% is not going to decrease. If the forint weakens, the situation is reversed, however, the management surely would not close the positions, instead it would wait, which is a wrong decision. In the construction industry, the above-mentioned problem is typically solved in a much cheaper way: the real estate developer simply shifts all the risks to the subcontractors. On the one hand, the contracts with the suppliers and contractors are euro-denominated. On the other hand, all possible environmental variables are indexed in the contracts. Obviously, if every subcontractor were experienced in assessing financial risks, they would raise their prices in euro relative to their prices in forint, as they have also undertaken the task of covering the exchange rate risk. In case of an oversupply of subcontractors, however, it is
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enough, if some of them fail to price this risk, and the group of subcontractors splits into two subgroups. The ones in the first category do not win contracts, the ones in the other do, then they either get lucky, or not. The real danger in granting credit is that loans can run dry in the course of the development of the real estate. This could happen due to, for example, the difficulties banks have to face when they would like to find sources, or the fact that the covers we can offer get devalued etc. Since these possibilities normally seem impossible, it is especially hard to be prepared for them. This type of risk equally affects everyone; partly this is why risk premium is due. All that can be done is to overinsure the loans (let the banks overinsure them), and to include these situations in the loan agreement in detail. Now lets see the inflation risk very briefly. The simplest way to eliminate the inflation risk is to index both the income and the operation-related contracts to the inflation of the same currency. The real problem here could be that foreign exchange rates can change significantly based on the correlations of the purchasing power parity owing to a long-lasting difference between the inflation rates of two currencies. Consequently, those items where euro-denominated contracts are problematic to be entered into (e.g. wages, taxes) can lead to unexpected liquidity difficulties. Based on the above, it is obvious that, if the project is properly prepared, the risk of a real estate development can be simplified until only the project-specific parameters remain. In other words, the question is how well we can forecast, for example, how frequented an office building will be in the coming years, how great the rate of occupancy would be, and how large the rent could be.
8. CONCLUSIONS
In this paper, the peculiarities of the risk management of construction projects have been analyzed, and attention has been drawn to the fact that the widespread risk management methods described in the related literature even though their application is essential in the realization phase do not properly reflect real exposure of the projects as perceived by the owners. A new approach to risk management which can be considered as appropriate by the owners holding a diversified portfolio has been suggested for the construction project companies. It has been shown that the general aim of risk management should be to enable the ensuring of the projects value-creating ability. For this, the proper reference return, the cost of capital and the projects expected return have to be determined. The next step is to calculate the probability of that the expected return is less than the reference return, in case of every value-creating parameter. It has been also discussed in detail that risk management, in case of real estate development projects, usually includes examining the probability of default and that the debt service
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coverage ratio drops below the contracted value, since these bottlenecks are typical of the construction industry. We believe that the application of the suggested approach of risk analysis provides deeper insight into the value-creating processes of construction projects, and leads to greater added value compared to traditional methods.
REFERENCES
(Al-Bahar et al, 1990) Al-Bahar, J.F., Crandell, K.C.: Systematic risk management approach for construction projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE 116 (3), 1990. (Baloi et al, 2003l) Baloi, D., Price, A.D.F.: Modeling global risk factors affecting construction cost performance. International Journal of Project Management 21, 2003, pp. 261269 (Chapman, 2001) Chapman, R.J.: The controlling influences on effective risk identification and assessment for construction design management. International Journal of Project Management 19, 2001. (Damodaran, 2008) Damodaran, A.: Equity Risk Premiums (ERP): Determinants, Estimation and Implications, 2008. (Damodaran, 2002) Damodaran, A.: Investment Valuation. Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset, 2nd edition, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, 2002, p. 38. (Flanagan, 1993) Flanagan, R., Norman, G.: Risk management and construction. Victoria, Australia, Blackwell Science Pty Ltd., 1993. (Girotra et al, 2011) Girotra, K., Netessine, S.: How to Build Risk into Your Business Model. Harvard Business Review, May, 2011, pp. 100105 (KarimiAzari et al, 2011) KarimiAzari, A., Mousavi, N., Mousavi, S.F., Hosseini, S.: Risk assessment model selection in construction industry. Expert Systems with Applications 38, 2011, pp. 91059111 (Klemetti, 2006) Klemetti, A.: Risk management in construction project networks. Report 2006/2. Finland: Laboratory of Industrial Management, Helsinki University of Technology, 2006. (Lintner, 1965) Lintner, J., 1965. The valuation of risk assets and selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets, Review of Economics and Statistics 47, pp. 1337. (Madcsi, 2005) Madcsi R.: Projektfinanszrozs. Vezetstudomny, 36 (6), 2005, pp. 3240 (Markowitz, 1959) Markowitz, H. 1959. Portfolio Selection. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1959. (Mossin, 1966) Mossin, J (1966) Equilibrium in a Capital Asset Market. Econometrica Vol. 34, No. 4, Oct., 1966, p 768 (Rowe, 1977) Rowe, W.D.: An anatomy of risk. New York, Wiley, 1977. (Sharpe, 1964) Sharpe, W.F.: Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk 19 (3), 1964, Page 425 of 425442 (Shen at al, 2001) Shen L.Y., Wu, W.C., Ng, S.K.: Risk Analysis for Construction Joint Ventures in China. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management ASCE, 127(1), 2001, pp. 7682 (Thevendran at al, 2001) Thevendran, V., Mawdesley, M.J.: Perception of human risk factors in construction projects: an exploratory study. International Journal of Project Management 22, 2004, pp. 131137 (Uher at al, 1999) Uher, T.E., Toakley, A.R.: Risk management in the conceptual phase of a project. International Project Management 17 (3), 1999, pp. 161169 (Zou at al, 2007) Zou, P.X.W., Zhang, G., Wang, J.: Understanding the key risks in construction projects in China. International Journal of Project Management 25, 2007, pp. 601614
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ENERGETIC CONSUMPTION PREDICTION ON CONSTRUCTION SITE

Prof. Dr. Marco Lorenzo Trani B.E.S.T. Department, Politecnico di Milano, Italy, marco.trani@polimi.it Benedetta Bossi, M.Sc. Arch. B.E.S.T. Department, Politecnico di Milano, Italy, benedetta.bossi@polimi.it Luca Guastalegname, B.Sc. Eng. B.E.S.T. Department, Politecnico di Milano, Italy, luca.guastalegname@mail.polimi.it
Abstract The paper presents some ongoing results of a research still carried on by the authors concerning the design and management of a green construction site. The study is born from the exigency that every design discipline has to deal with the importance of making the building process more sustainable. So, its necessary not only to proceed with an Integrated Design, but also to achieve sustainability by a focused construction site design. Starting from the well-known definition of sustainability sustainable development for future generations the research has identified three basic issues in order to save the necessary resources: (i) the energetic consumption of construction site, (ii) the wastes production, (iii) the environmental impact on the around human activities. Some results of the analysis of the first basic issue are presented here. The method used follows two different approaches. The first concerns the collection and setting of data about ended construction sites. In particular these data regard the urban parameters of the building construction, the significant works realized, the electrical consumption of the construction process and its costs. These data have been collected thanks to the involvement of a number of building firms, that were interested in understanding the impact of the electricity charges on their business. The second analysis concerns yard equipments. Data about their electrical consumptions have been collected and organized into critical schedules. In different sections are contained information about the equipment typology, the kind of supply and the start up power. Equipments data have been collected using existing publication, technical sheets and interviewing manufacturers. The final aim of the research will be the definition of innovative construction site design in order to optimize its sustainability, by orienting its designers choices.
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Keywords: construction site design, energetic consumptions prediction, equipments, integrated design, sustainability.
1. INTRODUCTION
The exigency of reaching by year 2020 the UE objectives 202020 (20% reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases, 20% energy savings and increase to 20% the consumption of renewable resources) and honoring the Kyoto Protocol which plans are to reduce the greenhouse gas emission in industrialized countries by 5,2% leads each production sector to have more and more attention towards the use of the resources. In general the building sector is, among all, the most sensitive to the aspects of efficiency and energy saving, for which reason, in recent years, there has been a considerable ripening of products and models of energy management in the field of construction, not to mention the valuable innovations. In fact the wide field of constructions (infrastructures, civil buildings, urban sites) represents a great possibility for a more sustainable use of resources. The focus, however, was directed mainly towards the optimization and energy savings achieved during the life of each building (design of its enclosure, plant networks, etc.), also because of the EU Directive 31/2010, that states that by 2021 all new buildings must be such as not needing inputs for heating and cooling, or they will be able to satisfy their needs through the use of renewable sources. On the contrary, it has been shown only marginal interest for the management of resources (such as various forms of energy, water, etc.) in the yard. In particular, the management of construction has been mainly driven by the decisions of the maximum efficiency of operations, optimizing the economic resources, timing management and paying always more attention to workers health&safety [1]. Thus, the research has identified three basic issues to investigate: (i) the energetic consumption of construction site, (ii) its wastes production and (iii) the environmental impact on the around human activities. Here the first results relating the energetic consumption are presented, focusing the analysis of energy resources in the form of electricity.
2. ELECTRIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN ITALY

Some analysis of the first operator of networks for the transmission of electricity in Europe TERNA shows that Italy, in 2010, consumed about 310.000 GWh of electric energy, while regarding the power demand, Italy needs an average of about 39,5 GW of gross electric power instantaneous. More in detail and comparing two different years, the agricultural sector consumed in 5.649,9 GWh in 2009 and 5.610,3 GWh in 2010; the industrial sector (including construction) consumed 130.505,9 GWh in 2009 and 138.439,3 GWh in 2010; the services sector consumed 94.834,9 GWh in 2009 and 96.284,5 GWh in 2010; the domestic
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sector consumed 68.924,4 GWh in 2009 and 69.550,5 GWh in 2010. Fig. 1 shows the Italian consumptions trend of the four macro sectors from the 2001 to the 2010 (the identification of these sectors comes from ATECO economic activities classification).
350.000 5.504 5.659 5.670 5.650 67.603 67.220 68.389 68.924
300.000 5.163 250.000 61.553 4.890 62.958
5.162 65.016
5.185 66.592
5.364
5.610
66.933
69.551
200.000
GWh
67.803
71.798
76.890
79.557
83.793
88.277
90.269
93.612 94.835 96.285
150.000
100.000 150.973 151.314 152.721 153.155 153.727 156.151 155.804 151.367 50.000 130.506 138.439
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
INDUSTRY
SERVICES
DOMESTIC
AGRICOLTURE
Figure 1: Italian electricity consumptions trend of the four macro sectors
DOMESTIC 22,44%
CONSTRUCTION 0,57%
INDUSTRY WITHOUT CONSTRUCTION 44,11%
SERVICES 31,07% AGRICOLTURE 1,81%
Figure 2: The percentages of Italian electricity consumptions in the macro sectors and the construction sector during 2010
Concerning the subject we deal, the industrial sector above mentioned includes construction that, according to ATECO codification, involves different types of works such as demolitions,
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new buildings and infrastructures, plant networks and so on. TERNA analysis shows that the construction sector consumed 1.808,4 GWh in 2009 and 1.752 GWh in 2010, so, even if this electricity consumption represents only about the 1,3% of that of the industrial area and the 0,57% of the total Italian consumptions (see Fig. 2), it could be anyway considered a relevant quantity of energy. To give it more evidence, below Its shown the electricity consumptions trend in construction in Italy and in Lombardy region from 1991 to 2010 (Fig. 3 and 4).
2.000 1.800 ITALY 1.600 1.400 1.200 % Lombardy
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
GWh
1.000 800 600
40,0%
30,0%
20,0% 400 200 10,0%
0,0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
Figure 3: Italian electrical consumptions trend in construction
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 -
GWh
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Figure 4: Lombardy electrical consumptions trend in construction
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2010
2010
Considering that the Italian National Institute for Statistics (Istat) evaluates that in Lombardy in 2010 the economic investment in the building sector was about 23.5 billion , comparing this data with those coming out from TERNA database (348 GWh of electrical consumption in the same area), it is possible to estimate approximately that for every 1.000.000 of built environment we have a consumption of 15 MWh during its construction and a consequent CO2 emission of 7965 kg. So, in the opinion of the research team and as demonstrates by many studies and protocols [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7], also the constructions site has a strong environmental impact, due to both its remarkable use of resources, as electricity, fuel and water, and to the production of wastes and harmful emissions, that, in order to have a more sustainable yard, have to be reduced. For example the research carried on by Gangolells M. et al. [2], starting from EMAS, identified a list of standardized environmental aspects of a construction site (then divided in more specific aspects) in order to propose an assessment tool for construction projects to measure the environmental performance of their construction activities. Concerning the subject we deal, between the environmental aspects proposed, the study paid attention to the electricity consumption during the construction process, identifying as an indicator the floor area (m).
3. DETAILED DATA COLLECTION

Because of TERNA data are aggregated, its necessary to break down them in order to better understand how to go on referring to construction site typologies. So the issue related to energy saving during the execution phase has come both consequently to this consideration and after the examination of the state of the art, which has detected the shortage of investigations concerning energy consumption on construction sites, in order to reduce the use of non-renewable energy resources. The study of the energy consumption has followed two different approaches: the first one regards the analysis of electric consumption of ended construction sites, the second one the analysis of yard equipments consumptions.
3.1. Electricity data of ended construction sites Thanks several contacts with different Italian construction companies, that were interested in understanding the impact of the electricity charges on their business, the research group started the collection of data still in progress on electricity consumption of ended construction sites. Some of these data came (are coming) directly from consumption data shown by yards electricity bills; other came out having had the opportunity to know the total cost of electricity and having converted it in order to have the consumptions
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expressed in kWh. Aggregate data retrieved were organized in forms, in which are listed some other related information (see Fig. 5). In the first part of each form are collected the information necessary to identify the type of work and its location. In the second part there are the so named building descriptors. These data are useful in order to understand the impact of the project size on the choice and on the use of equipment (e.g.: cranes). In the table are thus listed some urban parameters, such as gross floor area and volume, the maximum height above ground, the distance from the foundations and the roof ridge, and the maximum prevalent horizontal extension. In the third part of the form are listed the works duration, the required power (kW) and the total electricity consumption (kWh). At the moment 27 construction sites have been scheduled; four of these are shown in Fig. 5. So, because of the small number of forms that has been already filled, it is no time yet to extract summary data. In fact, the purpose of this data collection is to acquire a significant number of examples and, together with the analysis of consumption of site equipments, is to predict the electricity consumption of a building site typology during the design phase, having the necessary information from all the design disciplines involved in the Integrated Design.
Construction Site n 1 NEW BUILDING via Bianca di Savoia 12, Milano
Construction Site n 2
NEW BUILDING Via Antonini 32, Milano
DESCRIPTION: Construction of a new residential building of 5 floors above ground and 3 underground floors
DESCRIPTION: Construction of a new complex with mixed destinations (residential, manufacturing, services) of 18 floors above ground and 3 underground floors Building descriptors Contract price () GFA (m) Volume e.a.s. (m) Maximum height above ground (m) Distance foundations - roof ridge (m) Maximum prevalent horizontal extension (m) Consumption analysis Works duration Required power (kW) Total electricity consumption (kWh) Quantity 28.000.000 10.559,2 42.218,5 68,0 77,0 54,0 Quantity 54 months 120 874.451
Building descriptors Contract price () GFA (m) Volume e.a.s. (m) Maximum height above ground (m) Distance foundations - roof ridge (m) Maximum prevalent horizontal extension (m) Consumption analysis Works duration Required power (kW) Total electricity consumption (kWh)
Quantity 4.900.000 1.590,9 5.250,0 21,0 29,1 28,3 Quantity 26 months 80 100.012
NEW BUILDING Via Marussig 3, Milano
NEW BUILDING Via XXV Aprile n 4, San Donato (MI)
DESCRIPTION: Construction of a new residential building of 13 floors above ground and 2 underground floors
DESCRIPTION: Construction of a new offices building of 8 floors above ground and 1 underground floor
Figure 5: Four examples of consumption analysis form
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A first glance analysis of the collected data pointed out the fact that in order to build a 5.000 m3 e.a.s. typical small Italian block of flats the consumption due to construction site equipments amounts to about 100.000 kWh. However the use of the volume as a data to predict the electricity consumption is not complete because some kind of works cant be classified using this information (e.g. facades recovery). At the moment an interesting data to do some prediction regards the economic investment. For example, starting from the first reasoning given in paragraph 2 (for every 1.000.000 of works a consumption of 15 MWh), its possible to estimate that to build a typical small Italian block of flats (4/5 floors above ground) with a cost of about 2 mln there will be an electricity consumption of 30.000 kWh. In order to make more accurate and precise predictions the group is studying some possibilities to disaggregate the building data.
3.2. Energetic data of equipments The second approach has been to acquire data from the technical literature regarding the consumption of construction site equipment, collecting the technical sheets available from different manufacturers. The first database that has been investigated was the one of the Italian Labour Joint Committee where it is possible to found a wide list of construction equipment. The major manufacturers where then contacted directly or on-line in order to obtain the electric or fuel consumption quoted on the technical sheets available. The first result is a database of the main equipments, structured by typology and brand. After, starting from the data collection, it has been possible to work out a summary table in which the power (kW) was combined to every type of equipment (Figg. 6 and 7 show some examples). In the table are listed some other significant information as a general description, the parameters necessary to identify the different families of the equipment, the energy absorbed (kWh) and the resulting CO2 emission for electric engine, the consumption of fuel and the resulting CO2 emission for diesel engine (some data comes from the ISO DIS 10987). Its significant for the study that the energetic consumptions and CO2 emissions calculated are referred to 1 hour of work. In fact these data will be used in order to evaluate, during the design phase, the hypothetic consumptions of the equipments used for the provided works.
Concrete mixer
General description Parameters Power (kW) - Energy absorbed (kWh) - CO2 Emission (kg/h) electric engine electric engine electric engine
Traditional movement Reversing movement
capacity from 190 to 500 liters capacity from 350 to 1500 liters capacity from 350 to 500 liters
1,5 - 2,5
1,5 - 2,5
0,80 - 1,20
3,0 - 11,5
3,0 - 11,5
1,59 - 5,83
Tilting-type
1,5 - 2,5
1,5 - 2,5
0,80 - 1,20
Figure 6: Consumptions table of concrete mixer
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Saw
General description Parameters Power (kW) - Energy absorbed (kWh) - CO2 Emission (kg/h) electric engine electric engine electric engine
Disk saw
max lenght of cut 80 cm max depth of cut 13 cm max lenght of cut 150 cm max depth of cut 11 cm max height of cut 65 cm max lenght of cut 70 cm max width of cut 70 cm
0,64 - 4,4
0,64 - 4,4
0,4 - 2,92
Frame saw
1,5 - 2,2
1,5 - 2,2
0,8 - 1,17
Band saw
1,1 - 2,2
1,1 - 2,2
0,58 - 1,17
Figure 7: Consumptions table of saw
4. MONITORING TOOLS
After the collection of data the next step that has been carried out is the monitoring of the energetic consumptions directly during yard activities. In order to reach this target two different tools were worked out. The first one is the supply meter reading table (see Fig. 8). In this document for every day of work the site foreman notes the reading of supply meter and, at the end of every week, the research group controls its compilation. So, in this case, the involvement and the collaboration of the building firm, interested in knowing the consumptions trend during its activities and so the impact of the electricity charges on its business, is necessary and fundamental. The second monitoring tool is an organized construction site consumptions form (see Figg. 9 and 10), useful to control, directly in the yard, the use of the equipments during specific works. In the form the following data have to be reported: the work analyzed, the equipments used, their power, their type of supply and the time of utilization. In the lower part of the form its possible to note some information regarding for example contingencies that could have influenced workings. At last its necessary to indicate the productivity in order to do the necessary parameterizations, having analyzed a significant number of cases. To continue the research the group is defining the significant works, opportunely standardized, that have to be checked (e.g. the construction of reinforced concrete slab). In fact, the usefulness of these tools is to link the electrical consumptions to standardized workings in order to collect data necessary to create the table of the workings consumptions. This table will be useful in order to choose, during the design phase, the more sustainable technique/technology of works and to predict the total consumptions and CO2 emission that the realization of the total opera will cause. The monitoring of yards has just started. Initially it was decided to monitor all sites of the same type to create a homogeneous and comparable database. Therefore, the first case series of the study concerns residential house (4 floors above ground and 1 underground)
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certified class A (Italian Law 192/2005). The uniform approach to the detected data will also enable a first development of the monitoring tools. Then other building types will be checked.
SUPPLY METER READING TABLE MAY 2012
DATE 02 May 2012 03 May 2012 04 May 2012 .. .. .. READING 1586 kWh 1628 kWh 1691 kWh .. .. .. WORKS Timber formwork - Iron bending Concrete placing - Timber formwork Iron bending Concrete placing - Iron bending .. .. ..
Figure 8: Example of compilation of the supply meter reading table
Construction Site consumptions form

Item of work Work Equipments . .
Construction Site consumptions form

Item of work Work Foundation works Placement of reinforced concrete wall
Power
Supply
Time
Equipments
Power
Supply
Time
Tower crane
20 Kw
Electric
15 min/h
Concrete mixer Pumpcrete machine Immersion vibrator
80 Kw
Fuel
30 min/h
30 Kw
Fuel
30 min/h
1,1 Kw
Electric
15 min/h
Productivity notes
Productivity notes
6 m/h example: contingencies, weather
Figure 9: Construction Site consumptions form
Figure 10: Example of compilation
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3. CONCLUSIONS
The research has pointed out that construction sustainability should be improved by reducing the environmental impact of the building site, taking care of its energy consumption by a focused design of its construction phase. In fact, the energy consumption attributable to the construction phase of a building, related to the equipments used is not to be overlooked because its saving would result in both a reduction of pollution and of the use of non-renewable energy resources, without forgetting that it could contribute also to cost reduction. The research group has also investigated [8] the impact of construction site consumptions for the realization of 6.000.000 m for a 40.000 inhabitants settlement. In fact considering some government projects regarding the execution of entire new towns in developing countries, the first data analyzed tell us that in order to realize a settlement of 6.000.000 m wed have an energy consumption of about 100 GWh and a CO2 production of 53.100 ton, only considering supply equipments. This consumption of energy could be reduced thanks both sustainable construction techniques and the use of renewable energy sources specially designed for the yard. Starting from the study of the construction site consumption, the research intends to propose measures in order to reduce it or to use renewable sources to satisfy the energy needs of the yard. So, in conclusion, the final aim of the research will be the definition of innovative construction site design in order to optimize its sustainability, by orienting its designers choices.
REFERENCES
Gangolells M. et al., 2010. Mitigating construction safety risks using prevention through design. Journal of Safety Research, Vol. 41, pp. 107122. Gangolells M. et al., 2009. A methodology for predicting the severity of environmental impacts related to the construction process of residential buildings. Building and Environment, Vol. 44, pp. 558571. Gangolells M. et al., 2011. Assessing concerns of interested parties when predicting the significance of environmental impacts related to the construction process of residential buildings. Building and Environment, Vol. 46, pp. 10231037. Chen Z., Li H., 2006. Environmental management in construction: a quantitative approach. London: Taylor & Francis. Chen Z., Li H., Wong CTC, 2005. Environal Planning: analytic network process model for environmentally conscious construction planning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(1), pp. 92101. Imperadori M., Masera G., Iannaccone G., 2006. Research Cantiere Clima Klima Baustelle, Politecnico di Milano (Dip. BEST). LEED, 2009. Reference Guide for Green Building Design and Construction, U.S. Green Building Council Washington D.C., United States. Trani M. L., Bossi B., Samorani L., 2012. Construction Site Masterplan for New Towns. Proceedings of the XXXVIII IAHS World Congress, April 16-19, Istanbul, Turkey
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SELECTION OF FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES IN HONG KONG BY FACTOR ANALYSIS
Yick-tat Tsang The City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, yttsang@cityu.edu.hk S. Thomas Ng The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, tstng@hkucc.hku.hk Ka-chi Lam The City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, bckclam@cityu.edu.hk
Abstract Financial ratios are commonly used indicators to reflect and predict the financial healthiness of a company. However, amongst the hundreds of financial ratios which can be derived, no general consensus is reached on which are the best indicators to portray the financial performance of construction companies. The aim of this analysis is to generate a manageable set of financial ratios for use in evaluating the financial healthiness of construction companies by means of factor analysis. An exploratory factor analysis is utilized, as it can determine whether a smaller set of latent factors can explain the interrelationships among a larger pool of observed variables. In this paper, the financial ratios which are commonly used were first identified by reviewing relevant past studies. The published financial data of those listed construction companies in Hong Kong were then collected from the electronic financial databases. The data of 31 listed construction companies spanning over 19912010 was collected. By using the maximum likelihood method, a set of the initial factors were extracted. The oblique factor rotation was then applied to increase the interpretability of results. The findings indicate that the ratios could be condensed into five common factors, namely: (i) liquidity; (ii) profitability; (iii) asset structure; (iv) sales activity; and (v) debt structure. By scrutinizing these financial ratios, the financial performance of a construction company can be evaluated and monitored and thus reducing the risk of employing financially incapable companies. Keywords: construction company, factor analysis, financial performance, financial ratio
1. INTRODUCTION
The construction industry acts as a driver to boost local economy and provide considerable employment opportunities to a society. While construction projects necessitate a substantial capital, the bankruptcy of a contractor can be disastrous to all stakeholders along the supply
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chain. In this connection, the client, creditors, government officials and managers would need reliable business evaluation instruments to monitor the financial performance of construction companies. Financial ratios which can be found in the financial statements like balance sheets are commonly used to reflect and predict the business healthiness and performance of a company. However, it is difficult if not impossible to determine which are the most useful ones out of hundreds of financial ratios available (Edum-Fotwe, Price & Thorpe 1996; Hossari & Rahman 2005). In order to provide a more interpretable and manageable instrument for analysts, it is desirable to focus on some financial ratios which best portray the financial healthiness of construction firms. Factor analysis has been extensively used for financial ratio reduction and grouping (e.g. Pinches et al. 1975; Chen & Shimerda 1981; Gombola and Ketz 1983; West, 1985). In the construction discipline, Ocal et al. (2007) applied this technique to diagnose the financial performance of publicly listed construction firms in Turkish during 19972001. The results of his study shown that the 16 financial ratios identified can be consolidated into 5 factors. Factor analysis can also be applied as a data selection and reduction strategy before subsequent mathematical analyses and predictions of the industry behavior of construction sector. Chen & Du (2009) conducted a factor analysis to shortlist and group the 33 identified financial ratios for analyzing the publicly listed construction firms in Taiwan between 1999 and 2006. The selected factors were then used to construct a financial distress prediction model based on optimization techniques. In analyzing the performance of Japanese construction firms, Sueyoshi & Goto (2009) applied factor analysis as a pre-selection and condensation process to select the financial ratios for inputting into a discriminant analytical model in order to reduce the computational burden. As company performance may vary between different industrial sectors and geological regions, experience learnt from other overseas studies may not be directly applicable locally. Yet, the application of financial ratio analysis for assessing the construction industry of Hong Kong is relatively rare. In view of the massive capital works projects being launched in Hong Kong in recent years (Hong Kong Government 2011), the aim of this analysis is to explore a useful set of financial ratios to evaluate the business healthiness of construction companies in Hong Kong.
2. DATA ANALYSIS
2.1 Factor Analysis According to Raykov & Marcoulides (2008), exploratory factor analysis aims to determine whether a set of latent (unobservable) factors can explain the interrelationships among a larger number of manifest (observed) variables. The manifest variables, X, are assumed to be related by a regression-type model to a smaller number latent variables, i.e., the common factors F, such that X = F + U
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where is the association coefficient (or factor loading) matrix and U is a matrix of the residual terms. It represents the uniqueness of each manifest variable which is uncorrelated with each other (Everitt 2010). A manifest variable with a high factor loading is said to be more influential to the dimension represented by the estimated factor. In addition, an estimation of factor scores can be conducted, which can be used as composite scores for subsequent further analyses (e.g. Ocal et al. 2007). Methodologically, the initial factors can be first extracted from a sampled data set using several different algorithms, such as the principal factor, maximum likelihood method, etc. The KaiserMeyerOlkin (KMO) measure of sampling sdequacy and Bartletts test of sphericity are then examined to check the goodness-of-fit of the factor model. The KMO measure should be around 0.5 or larger (Child 2006) which means the factors extracted will account for a sufficient amount of variance within the data set. The Bartletts test determines the adequacy of the inter-correlation of the variables. It evaluates the hypothesis that the population correlation matrix is an identity matrix. The test shall be significant (p<0.05) to reject the null hypothesis, or otherwise no sensible data reduction can be done for the tested data set (Raykov & Marcoulides 2008). An appropriate number of factors are selected from the initial solution. It can be practically determined by the Kaisers eigenvalue criterion in which the factors with an eigenvalue of larger than 1 are selected (Raykov & Marcoulides 2008). Factor rotation is usually applied to make the result more interpretable. It does not alter the overall structure of a solution but to facilitate how the solution is described (Everitt 2010). There are two kinds of rotation. An orthogonal rotation restricts the rotated factors to being uncorrelated, while an oblique rotation allows correlated factors. The rotated factors are usually named in an attempt to assign the meaning of them based on the consideration of the factor loadings of the manifest variables. Factor scores, as an aggregated measure, for each subject can then be estimated.
2.2 Data Collection Factor analysis is sensitive to the manifest variables selected (Child 2006). As hundreds of financial ratios can be derived, this study commenced by reviewing the past academic studies in the construction and built environment area in order to establish a reliable list of relevant ratios. 20 studies employing financial ratios to analyze the performance of constructionrelated companies were identified and reviewed, and these include Fadel 1977; Mason & Harris 1979; Kangari, Farid & Elgharib 1992; Abidali & Harris 1995; Edum-Fotwe, Price & Thorpe 1996; Russell & Zhai 1996; Zhai & Russell 1999; Cheah, Garvin & Miller 2004; Ginevicius & Podvezko, 2006; Ocal et al. 2007; Haron, Ibrahim and Muhamad 2008; Chen & Du 2009; Hong 2009; Sueyoshi & Goto 2009; Chen & Lin 2010; Chen et al. 2010; Balatbat, Cho-Yi & Carmichael, 2010; Elyamany, Basha & Zayed 2010; Ng et al. 2011; and Tserng et al. 2011. From which, 35 financial ratios were extracted and identified as the potential set of ratio variables (i.e. manifest variables) for subsequent factor analysis.
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The annual financial data of those listed construction companies in Hong Kong was collected from their published annual reports via the electronic financial databases Bloomberg and Osiris. A construction company was first identified if it was under (i) the category of Construction and Engineering under the global industry classification standard (GICS) in the Bloomberg database; (ii) the group code 1517 under the division of Construction in the standard industrial classification (SIC) of the Osiris database; or (iii) the list of approved contractors for public works maintained by the Architectural Service Department of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government. The financial data of those identified companies was then extracted from the Bloomberg database. Only those construction companies which are publicly listed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange were considered. The real estate builders with developer capacity were excluded as their financial structure was believed to be different from that of the pure construction companies. The collected data spanned over 19912010 and the data of 31 companies was collected.
2.3 Data Analysis

Variables (Financial Ratios) Current ratio Return on equity EBIT margin Earnings per share Liabilities to asset ratio Quick ratio Liabilities to equity ratio Fixed assets turnover Working capital turnover Fixed assets to equity ratio Inventory to total assets ratio Long-term debt to equity ratio Current assets to total assets ratio Fixed assets to total assets Total Asset turnover Abbreviation CR ROE EBIT EPS TL/TA QR TL/TE S/FA S/WC FA/TE I/TA LD/TE CA/TA FA/TA S/TA
Table 1: Financial ratios used for the analysis
A statistical software SPSS was used for the analysis. In order to reduce the influence caused by the outliers, data cleaning of the ratio variables was first conducted (Watson 1990). The outliers were omitted if their absolute standard scores are in excess of 3.29 (Tabachnik & Fidell 2001). The ratio variables were then checked against the problem of singularity or very high multi-collinearity as they can prohibit the analysis from reaching a unique solution from the variables. To detect the problem, the correlation matrix was examined to identify the highly correlated variables (Pearsons r > 0.9) and the determinant of correlation matrix
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should be > 0.00001 (Child, 2006; Field, 2009). The KMO test and Bartletts test were performed to check the goodness-of-fit of the factor model. The final results returned 15 financial ratios which were subsequently included in the finalized factor model. The final list of ratio variables is shown in Table 1.
Figure 1 Study framework
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The factors were condensed by means of the popular maximum likelihood method (Kline 1994; Everitt 2009). The cut-off of the numbers of factor was based on the Kaisers criterion in which the factors with an eigenvalue of greater than 1 are selected. The initial solution was then rotated to aid the interpretability of the factors. As the factors might carry common information, the oblique factor rotation was performed using the oblimin method. The framework of the analysis is shown in Figure 1. The total sample was further tested by sub-dividing it into sub-groups based on the macroeconomic cycle of Hong Kong. In 1990s, the economy of Hong Kong was booming, but the trend was dramatically reversed in 1998 due to the Asian Financial Crisis started in 1997 (Wong 2002). The recession ended in 2003 following the implementation of a Closer Economic Partnership Agreement with the Mainland China in the same year. The economy has been recovering since then (Li, Wei & Xie 2009). As business performance is closely related to the economic condition, three sub-groups spanning across different macroeconomic periods from 19911997, 19982003 and 20042010 were examined. The aim is to examine the stability of the factors pattern over different stages of the macro-economic cycle. The test results of different sample groups are shown in Table 2.
SAMPLE GROUP Determinant of R-matrix KMO measure Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square Degree of freedom Significance Factor extracted Percentage of variance explained 19912010 0.001 0.646 2174.923 105 .000 5 73.1 19911997 0.00003 0.666 738.039 105 .000 5 80.2 19982003 0.00007 0.543 850.788 105 .000 5 75.6 20042010 0.000 0.637 863.344 105 .000 5 73.5
Table 2: Summary of tests
2.3 Factor Interpretation Referring to Table 2, equal numbers of factors were successfully extracted from each group. The cumulative percentage of variance explained by these factors was in between 7380% meaning that a significant amount of common variance shared by these 15 variables (financial ratios) has been accounted for by these five factors. Table 3 shows the rotated factors of different sample groups. The financial ratios (manifest variables), with a factor loading of larger than 0.5, were shown to help interpreting the nature of the factors. The findings show that there is a consistent factor pattern across different sample groups (i.e. over different periods of the macro-economic cycles of Hong Kong). Factors emerged from each sample group consist of very similar pattern of ratios. For each extracted factor, the ratios of the highest loading are almost identical across different sample groups.
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Sample Factor 1 group Liquidity CR QR CA/TA CR QR
Factor 3 Factor 2 load load Asset Profitability structure .988 ROE .612 EPS .502 EBIT .989 ROE .544 EPS .985 FA/TA .629 FA/TE .627 S/FA .804 FA/TA .725 FA/TE TL/TA
Factor 4 load Activity .943 S/TA .744 S/FA -.501 CA/TA S/WC .917 S/TA .837 CA/TA .566 TL/TE S/FA S/WC -.950 S/TA -.588 S/FA .517 CA/TA TL/TA S/WC -.967 -.940 .677 .618 S/TA S/FA CA/TA TL/TE
Factor 5 load Debt structure .898 .696 .683 .509 .913 .652 .597 .587 .566 .937 .724 .666 -.507 .502 TL/TA TL/TE LD/TE TL/TA LD/TE FA/TE TL/TE TL/TE TL/TA
load .744 .679 .637 .860 .718 .552 .503 .963 .503
1991 2010
2004 2010
1998 2003
CR QR CA/TA TL/TA
.777 ROE .774 EBIT .579 EPS -.541
.913 FA/TA .869 FA/TE .669 CA/TA
1991 1997
CR QR CA/TA TL/TA S/FA
.959 ROE .778 EBIT .588 EPS -.571 .537
.902 FA/TE .800 FA/TA .774 S/FA CA/TA
.756 TL/TA .669 LD/TE .610 TL/TE .558
.829 .785 .605
Table 3: Factor pattern showing ratios with factor loading >0.5
By examining the dominant financial ratios of each factor, the factors are named according to the common nature as follows: 1. Liquidity Factor: current ratio (CR) and quick ratio (QR) are the common ratios among all the sample groups and their factor loadings are typically high. The second dominant ratio is the current assets to total assets ratio (CA/TA). These ratios represent the construction companies strength to meet their short-term financial obligations. 2. Profitability Factor: The return on equity (ROE) and earnings per share (EPS) form the foundation of this factor. The second significant ratio is the EBIT margin (EBIT) which turns up in three out of four sample groups. All these ratios represent the ability of construction companies in generating profit. 3. Asset Structure Factor: It includes essentially the fixed assets to total assets ratio (FA/TA) and fixed assets to equity ratio (FA/TE). These ratios reflect the asset structure of construction companies which usually possess a due amount of fixed assets such as construction plant and material warehouses to meet their business operation.
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4. Activity Factor: This factor is made up of the total asset turnover (S/TA), fixed asset turnover (S/FA), and current assets to total assets ratio (CA/TA). The second dominant ratio is working capital turnover (S/WC). All these ratios reflect the efficiency of construction companies in utilizing their assets and inventories. 5. Debt Structure Factor: This factor includes the total liabilities to asset ratio (TL/TA) and total liabilities to equity ratio (TL/TE). The second significant ratio is the long-term debt to equity ratio (LD/TE). These ratios provide an indication of the long-term solvency of construction companies.
3. CONCLUSION
This paper aims to explore an effective group of financial ratios to reflect the business healthiness of construction companies. The findings demonstrate that the financial ratios identified in previous studies can be substantially condensed into a number of factors via the factor analysis. These factors describe the major dimensions of the financial status of construction companies in Hong Kong. Five factors, namely: (i) liquidity; (ii) profitability; (iii) asset structure; (iv) activity; and (v) debt structure, are eventually derived which represent five distinctive dimensions of financial performance. The results agreed with the findings of Ocal et al. (2007) in which five factors of comparable nature were also concluded. For subsequently analysis, factor scores can be calculated based on the proposed factor pattern, which represent a composite score of the respective financial dimension of a company. Alternatively, the financial ratios with the top factor loading in each factor can be used as proxy indicators to simplify the computational burden. In this connection, the current ratio, return on equity, fixed asset to total asset ratio, total assets turnover and total liabilities to total assets ratio will be the recommended choices for this purpose.
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A STUDY ON THE CONTEXT AND PRACTICE OF NATURAL BUILDING

Jieh-Jiuh Wang Ming Chuan University, Taoyuan, Taiwan, jjwang@mail.mcu.edu.tw Xin-Rong Wu Ming Chuan University, Taoyuan, Taiwan, wxr136056@hotmail.com
Abstract In terms of current environmental development trend, architecture ought to not only comply with sustainability, but seek a further basic human-oriented environmental context that establishes sequence of ideas and practice to care for both human life and environment. This study takes natural building as an example to uncover its own core value and context via literature reviews, which was followed by case study to generalize local practice from natural building. In addition to three contexts of sustainability, natural building also covers spiritual context. Natural building is more than just a construction; it is an attitude towards sustainable life entirety with philosophical thinking as well. Richness of natural building results from its spiritual context, while experiencing the real value through subjective practicality so peoples viewpoints are transformed that sustainability of environment could last from generation to generation. Keywords: manual work, natural building, personal empowerment, sustainability.
1. INTRODUCTION
With regards to current environmental development trend, globalization has profoundly affected interactions among human activity systems to speed up. Extreme weather caused by global warning and excessive consumption of un-renewable resources like petroleum, experts begin to examine effects systematically from globalization to environment and resources consumption. However, contemporary architecture design is rooted on problemsolving thinking mode. Even with numerous regulations and restrictions, people still ignore environmental issues so that they only try to deal with problems ahead but pay no heed to what will happen in the future. As a matter of fact, current environmental development requires a more human-oriented meaning despite its all sustainability compliance. Hence, architecture design requires a systematic reform to overlook details completely based on thoughts. Meanwhile, reducing needs of man-made objects and emphasizing diverse and local practice so that when problem occurs, alternative options are still available to minimize its effects. Natural building is an option that deserves to be promoted and put into consideration.
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2. HISTORY OF NATURAL BUILDING

Natural building originated from a social reform called back-to-the-land. Followed by environmental protection awareness and excessive resources consumption, concepts gathered and formed with continuous efforts even to nowadays. Natural Building Colloquia is its representative social community that turns out to be a global architecture network. However, due to its complexity and diversity, the seemed retro natural building remains avant-garde, which is incomprehensible and experimental to the vast majority and government agencies.
2.1. Back-to-the-land movement The concept of natural building enlightened back in the 1960s in the United States, when rapid industrialization and social problems overflew in the country. Due to unbearably inappropriate development and injustice of the environment, people were forced to move from urban to rural areas. They wanted to create a living mode of self-consciousness awakening; back-to-the-land movement was conceptualized and popularized ever since. Occupants chose to build their own houses in a non-professional, low-tech, and low-cost manner by themselves. Majority of them were inspired and benefited from Nearing et al. (1970) and Kern (1975). Dreamlands, such as kibbutzim, the collective community in Israel and Twin Oaks Intentional Community in rural Virginia that were based on a utopian novel called Walden Two. In addition, The Farm, a famous spiritual intentional community in Summertown, Tennessee founded by the counterculture hippie icon Stephen Gaskin, was also based on principles of nonviolence and respect for the earth, institutes as such are products from religion and spiritual practice or hippie movements. These developments present its diversity and its social viewpoints from natural building.
2.2. Environmental awareness and idea evolving Feedback from Rachel Carsons Silent Spring in 1962 and oil crisis in the mid-1970s set a wakeup call for environmental awareness. People started paying attentions to usage of natural resources and energy efficiency of buildings. Studies and reports regarding low-energy building, alternative energy system, and sustainable resources management increased rapidly, and; since then, issues dealings with environment context of natural building drew public attentions. Unfortunately, it was swept away for awhile in 80s resulted from lacking of public apathy and official assistance. Auspiciously, architects and builders who threw themselves into preservation and tradition still worked on fragmentary experiments cross the country. Until Michael Reynolds, a New Mexico registered architect, constructed a house utilizing normal trash items like plastic bottles, used tires, and straw bale, did the media start covering the ideas called Earthship Biotecture. Independent pioneers and researchers began to work side by side. Many saw it as an alternative approach so it would not be seen an obstacle to mainstream construction. In fact, the concept of nature was already pretty close
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to the environment trend at that time. The ideas of sustainable development sparked in the 1990s and eventually adopted by the government. Pursuit of nature, green, and sustainable development can be a joint effort to achieve the ultimate goal of a harmless eco-system.
2.3. From Natural Building Colloquia to Natural Building Network The very first Alternative Building Colloquium in 1994 was organized by Ianto Evans and Linda Smiley who founded Cob Cottage Company. Natural builders and educators in the States were invited for a one-week event in Oregon, sharing building techniques, philosophies, and experiences to a more cohesive knowledge system. The annual Natural Building Colloquia which usually lasts for one or two weeks offers chances to experience the natural buildings and to know people with various backgrounds from everywhere. With numerous gatherings, everyone begins to learn how to construct with local materials and also try to modify their methods suitable for contemporary needs. These seem unrelated connections start becoming as one single idea with an easily understood name called Natural Building. Natural building network, established in 2005, aims to offer a platform for discussion, announcement, technology support, and updates. The network also creates an opportunity for local social networks to contact the world so that volunteers, natural builders, educators, and workshops are available for chances to build, learn, and cooperate.
3. DEFINITION OF NATURAL BUILDING

Definitions of natural building are various but somehow similar. There are discourses from diverse studies and literatures discussing about this issue. Hart and Hart (n.d.) believes that natural building is an architecture style that uses primarily natural materials instead of artificial and industrial materials for construction, which seems to be the most common association to natural building. Rieth (2008) describes Natural building as a philosophy and practice emphasizes socially, culturally, and environmentally responsible building. Its signature architecture format uses nearly raw local materials as fundamental elements with labor intensive approach, but not capital intensive method. These least processed and local materials indicate that natural materials are the fundamental components to natural building. Smith (2002) considers natural building as a philosophical thinking emphasizing on social and environmental sustainability. Natural building includes regionalism and uniqueness that relies on not only roles that local ecosystem, terrain, climate, and site play, but also the characteristics and demands from builders and users. Moreover, natural building stresses on easy technology to construct peoples own houses with skills they are familiar with, hence, it is also a construction action with personal empowerment.
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However, Evans et al. (2002) thinks that natural building means paying more attention to all the details of how the world really works that seems to be a more inward and abstract explanation. In other words, everyone is an individual with various interpretations towards natural building. Lin (2011) defines natural building as a life in communion with nature, access locally, eco-friendly, learn from nature, history, and traditional wisdom, construction with manual labor and creativity. Summarizing from above, natural building thinking results from life attitude with nature, further onto sustainability of human future from inside ones heart. Natural building is an authentic and unrestrained construction, including attitude of co-existence with nature, such as, physical awareness, close encounter with environment, care for local materials, and resources down to every details, receptions and respects on life cycle assessment of architecture. Constraints that natural building abandons include, capitalism price mechanism, and control from consortium and professionals. Life style that co-exists with nature means that architecture or human being is only a part of nature that gives us a chance of introspection of life and co-existence with others.
4. SCOPE OF NATURAL BUILDING

Sustainability that natural building follows results from tremendous traditional wisdom and passes it onto generations. The followings are comparisons between sustainable building and vernacular architecture. In 1987, World Commission on Environment and Development clearly defined sustainable development as the kind of development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) gave a more detailed explanation, Those Buildings that have minimum adverse impacts on the built and natural environment, in terms of the buildings themselves, their immediate surroundings and the broader regional and global setting. In terms of vernacular architecture, it places emphasis on dwellings and other buildings of the occupants. Related to their environmental contexts and available resources, they are customarily owner- or community-built, utilizing traditional technologies. (Oliver, 2006) In other words, vernacular architecture is built to cope with occupants needs regarding values, economic situation, and life style. Pan (2011) indicates that vernacular architecture as, It is the time when craftsmen appear, they begin their work on the basis of preexperimental mode, they work with the clients/house owners to adjust specific problems then construction begins. Occupants at this period of time still have the knowhow of building houses. Craftsmen are only familiarized more with rules and details of construction. Types and format of architecture are traditions that recognized by generations through generations. Long as traditions are kept, collective images and tribal villages are around.
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Natural building comprises sustainability thinking that contains regionalism and uses of traditional wisdom. Differences between natural building and vernacular architecture rest on life style, technology concepts transformation, and continuous experiments that hope to find out the most efficient application to sustainable developments. Vernacular architecture is a type of natural building while natural building is a type of sustainable architecture.
5. CONTEXT AND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK OF NATURAL BUILDING

There are plenty of literatures focus on context of natural building through a sustainable environmental-social-economic framework, such as environmental context, (Lin, 2011; Evans, 2010; Smith, 2002; Smiley, 2002; Evans et al., 2002) social context, (Rieth, 2008; Smith, 2002; Bolman, 2002; Evans et al., 2002) and economic context (Smith, 2002; Bainbridge, 2002; Evans et al., 2002) This study sorts out different attributes and discuss further in the followings. Impacts from construction to environment are inevitable, but it is our duties to minimize and control possible damages. Natural building helps keep environmental footprint to the minimum with least damage that maintains a healthy local ecosystem. Utilizing on-site resources to reduce reliance on polluting and energy-intensive industries and transportation, Smith (2002) also avoids indirect impacts from negative factors to environment and ecosystem. Most natural builders tend to utilize natural materials like stones, timber, straw stalk and clay for they are non-toxic and reusable resources. Clay is the most common construction material among them because of its capacity of toxic absorption, healing recovery, and breathable aeration which is more beneficial to users. Construction and regulations are ruled by government and cooperation, while beneficiary is in charge of rules and regulations. With this enormous economic effects, people are brainwashed to believe that only the professionals can build houses so that every individual has to work hard to earn relatively big amount of money in exchange of their own home and property (Smith, 2002). However, natural building is an approach to build ones own house with least amount of money, using local materials and intensive nonprofessional manual work. Being total opposite to capitalism, money is no longer the only merit to consider, everyone involved can do things they desire the most in exchange for others help. From technological point of view, using natural resources like solar power to achieve energy self-sufficient goal; that helps to develop a minimum energy consumption device. Approach in accordance with life cycle assessment that covers economy and justice aspects are highly welcomed by natural builders. Surprisingly, people live the way they desire more as their cash needs go down. This mechanism is similar to the conventional labor-exchange system; it not only takes care of economy status, but also flourishes human interaction. Moreover, it strengthens the social system and makes it more stable that comprises human compassion and sympathy. Smith
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(2002) believes that when the relatively affluent group starts to cut down their need for resources, which will be accessible easily to the less privileged group; therefore, sustainability regarding cross-society justice can last from generation to generation.
5.1. Discussion: spiritual context Still, these above discourses cannot cover all context or aspects regarding natural building. This research considers spiritual context is hard to generalize but as the core of natural building. More and more evidences show that modern architecture do affect humans emotional and mental health. Since the styles, colors, and proportion of modern architecture do not exist in nature, they certainly are not products from evolution. During natural building construction process, dialogue between men and the environment is one major concern so it echoes with non-artificial materials and cares for craftsmanship more than modern architecture can hardly achieve. However, this could result in professional elitism bullying and massive formalism deforming to the environment. Natural building is the product of personal and intuitive design. Participants were all intuitive designers, place-makers and natural builders back in their childhood. Through memory, participants put little pieces as jigsaw puzzle to every place we visit. Intuition results from nuance within ones mind that brings strong impacts and influences to daily life. Nature has its own severe standard framework that creates every tiny changes and unlimited responses. Nearly every design concept of natural building comes from intuition, such as, instant response, imagery atmosphere, intimacy between construction process and natural objects, and awareness of supporting ideas. The healing of chronic illness, as well as changes in career and life attitudes speaks for itself. (Smiley, 2002)
6. CASE STUDY: A-NIU COMMUNITY, TAITUNG, TAIWAN

The research takes A-Niu Community, Taitung, Taiwan as the case study to explain further the local practical experience and possible difficulties natural building might encounter. Following discussions are made on environmental, economic, social and spiritual context respectively.
6.1. Introduction Located in Donghe, Taitung, A-Niu Community is a coastal tableland that faces the Pacific Ocean while Dulenshen (A'tolan Mountain) in the back. Coconut trees are planted over the site. Founder of this place is a Vipassan practicer that wishes to establish a small community where people can practice Vipassan of Buddhism. The idea of providing a place where
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people and nature live harmoniously matches the essence of natural building. Therefore, ideas and concepts of natural building are embedded in the construction. It is a two-stage construction for building A-Niu Community. During its first stage, it plans to build the recreation area and takes it as a sample to predict the amount of manual work, time, and cost needed for natural building in Taitung County. Through this construction, experiences of working together from the potential residents are provided and expressed to devote more to the second stage construction cohesively. In addition, A-Niu Community is expected to be an open area for exchange and interflow of information, knowledge, and technology freely. Before construction, the project has been planned for years. Volunteers were recruited since April of 2008. It was opened for public participation at the same time. At its early stage, it only focused on planning, designing, and collecting data. The recreation area began constructing in October, 2008 till the end of 2010. It still attracts people with the same ideas and notions to join continuously and plans the second stage of community construction. 6.1.1. Current status and its participants There used to be a concrete farm house, a temporary shed lodge and two platforms for tents on the site. The construction team completed working on kaleyard, water filtering piping, compost area, bioretention and underground well. The temporary shed lodge is modified as a supply inventory room for recreation area and to store local materials for future use. Up to five workers in the construction team live in the neighborhood. The founder and other participants that are willing take part in on an irregular base while some other volunteers show up with a small amount of time. Local construction team is hired for more technological work such as stone masonry and carpentry. Researchers were volunteers to participate in land consolidation, model making, marking, foundation excavation, graded gravel, wooden structure, and cob wall making periodically. During its participation period, researchers live with the natural building construction team as well. 6.1.2. Planning and design Building a self-sufficient ecological community is the main target of A-Niu Communitys planning and design that also applies for sustainability planning and natural building design. At the pre-planning stage, months of site selection and land consolidation were spent on investigating coordinates, weather, plants, animals, terrain, site marking, hydrology, soil, and experimenting on wall materials of structure. In addition to scientific statistics and data, intuitive expression of daily activities regarding this environment is also used as references of site selection planning and design. Architecture design includes clay modeling as making a sculpture to create a sacred space. Heuristic design is adopted to fully utilize resources from the environment such as sunshine, rain, wind, and gravity.
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6.1.3. Construction process/ method/ materials Construction process relies on massive non-professional manual work, assisted with simple tools and minimum materials. Foundation is based on graded gravel rubble trench and stone masonry. The wall itself is a load-bearing wall system, using combination of local clay, sand, rice straw, and water that mixed with hands and feet; then form it into lumps that mashed together by hand to build up the wall. Partial wall is made from wattle and daub while interior ground and wall is finished with lime plaster. The team made the oblique roof skeleton with bamboo and rattan; since Taitung is located at the Pacific Rim seismic belt, wooden structure is used to support the roof. Local materials are their first choice, such as straw, creek cobbles, clay and stones from foundation excavation, and coconut fiber. They also use local resources to make construction tools like compaction tool made from the fast grow pioneer species on site.
6.2. Analysis Further analysis and discussion are made based on context of environment, economy, society, and spirits regarding natural building. Because of staffs long-term stationing, it offers a complete environmental observation to understand how to achieve minimum disturbance and how to utilize resources from environment thoroughly regarding planning and design. Heuristic design cuts down architectures reliance on equipments, it accomplishes a healthy interior as well. Local access and least processed construction skills keep it independent from manufacturing and transportation, while reducing resources consumption through production. Every step is clearly understood by simple tools that contain ideas of environmental sustainability, low energy, reusable materials, minimum environmental damage, and direct environmental observation. Natural materials reduce chemical pollution from industrial composition. Once it demolishes, construction components are decomposable and weathering in the environment instead of being huge pieces of waste that difficult for decomposition. Using local materials, construction team decreases long haul transportation fee. Recycling and reusing waste, using only precise amount of materials results in no redundancy at all. Accessing locally is beneficial to future maintenance and management. Rain harvesting system is applied for water resources self-sufficiency. The whole natural building construction team has been living together from the very beginning of planning phase. Construction process is a collective activity that helps each other, for instance, it requires at least two persons to throw and catch for cob delivery to construction site. Everyone carry out their duties and offer assistance when needed. When participating in easy work that demands physical labor and reiteration in natural environment, it quite often results in an ecstatic state of mind once your fitness reaches its limits. In the mean time, all senses are open as media to fully experience the environment that stimulates feedback from peoples sense of value, which is the missing perception in
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modern life. However, after a period of time, people are trained to be more sensitive to the environment that may affect their attitudes and methods to comply with nature during the construction. For example, while making cobs, different amount of water is added in accordance with perception of weather, temperature and humidity. No annoying noise from massive machinery, all you hear is the sound of log beating for compaction, the sound of wind blowing, and the sound of serpent eagle hovering in the sky. Embraced by nature, you feel pleasure even when work gives you exhaustion.
Natural building model
Mix cob patty together
Graded gravel compaction
Delivery of cob
Figure 1. Natural buildings process Sources: taken by this research
7. DISCUSSION
The case of A-Niu Community seems more experimental, by means of building the recreation area to promote natural building ideas and gather people that are interested in it. The economic and social context A-Niu Community brings is less promising and influential owing to its small scale. The case shows three major different parts from the usual natural building cases as followed. (1) Instead of being crucial insiders, researchers are only volunteers to this case. Therefore, the entire forming process of natural building can hardly be totally understood.
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(2) From the viewpoint of manual work force, first of all, volunteers are not the future residents so they cannot be assumed as major work force since their physical strength and devotion seem less stable. Secondly, without long-term participation from the potential residents, the construction is prolonged since the few professional natural builders are the only work force. Generally speaking, future natural building residents have extreme influence to its social and economic context that might affect future living commitment. However, the less participation from future residents does affect its social context to achieve. (3) All related resources are accessible under Taiwans current social status. Human interaction seems too tight while commodity and employment are subject to mobility, these could all result in ignorance of economic and social aptitude importance. Recognition of awareness to natural building should be kept and people should care for every detail of life and sustainable development as well. Natural building aligns itself with philosophies of holistic, integrated systems, such as Bill Mollison's Permaculture, Rudolf Steiner's Anthroposophy, or German Bau-Biologie (BioArchitecture). Structure itself is not an isolated entity, but a system that provides shelter, food, clean water, energy, and waste cycling (Elizabeth, 2005). Natural building is an environmental-friendly architecture style that does not require big money, processed materials, or heavy machinery to complete. Instead, its regional attributes make natural building unique from other building styles that subjective life perception wins it all. Ecovillage design education (EDE) explains World view in eco-design context as: a dimension weve chosen to call Worldview. This is in recognition that there are always underlying, often unspoken, and sometimes hidden patterns to culture that strongly influence and may, in fact, predetermine economic, social, and ecological relationships.the term paradigm is now commonly used to describe this interpenetrating mix of beliefs, philosophies, and myths that together comprise the widely accepted cultural lens through which one perceives the world. Through natural building, people practice and live out its spiritual value, then enlighten the value of life and change the way they treat life. Moreover, carry out value of environment within natural building so that the ultimate goal which natural building wishes to promote is achieved.
8. CONCLUSIONS
The possible obstacles of natural building construction and promotion encounter nowadays could result from value differentiation regarding money and labor. Meanwhile, complete understanding of spiritual context of natural building requires in-depth on-site participation experience. Unfortunately, most people tend to choose a fast-paced life style these days,
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leaving comprehension to natural building nothing but a hallow architectural terminology and ruling out an alternative it offers. Direct participation of natural building helps understand its context and value of environment. Life style during the construction is rather different and appealing. Changes of value are gradually permeating in daily life through perception to nature when construction takes place. It is indeed an architecture phenomenology that fills up the gaps between theories and experiences with interpretations. It is also a challenge of fitness and patience for researchers to be highly motivated and open-minded at the same time since every crucial detail might be skipped for initial thoughts or unreasonable rationality. Related case studies are relatively rare in Taiwan. Samples and data are inadequate for an objective analysis. However, the research team has already begun to collect first hand data to record developments and process of natural building in Taiwan which will be an important start for natural building to grow and glow here in Taiwan.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This study was sponsored by National Science Council, Taiwan (NSC 100-2632-H-130-001MY2).
REFERENCES
Bainbridge, D. A., 2002. Life Cycle Cost and Value of Four Home, in Kennedy, J., Smith, M. and Wanek, C. (Eds.), The Art of Natural Building: Design, Construction, Resources, pp 3132, New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, BC, Canada. Bolman, R., 2002. Natural Building and Social Justice, in Kennedy, J., Smith, M. and Wanek, C. (Eds.), The Art of Natural Building: Design, Construction, Resources, pp 1415, New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, BC, Canada. Elizabeth, L., 2000 The Natural Building Movement, in Elizabeth, L. and Adams, C. (Eds.), Alternative Construction: Contemporary Natural Building Methods. pp. 37, John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY. Evans, I., 2010. Eleven Ways Natural Building can address Climate Change. the Cob Web Archive. 2010: 45. Evans, I., Smith, M. G., Smiley, L. and Bednar, D., 2002. The Hand-Sculpted House: A Practical and Philosophical Guide to Building a Cob Cottage: The Real Goods Solar Living Book, Chelsea Green Publishing Company, White River Junction, VT. Hart, K. and Hart, R., n.d. Natural Building. Available at http://www.greenhomebuilding.com/natural_building.htm. (accessed 2011.12.14) Nearing, H., Nearing, S., and Goodman, P., 1987. Living the Good Life: How to Live Sanely and Simply in a Troubled World, Schocken Books, New York, NY. Kern, K., 1975. The Owner Built Home, Scribner, New York, NY.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Lin, Y.Y., 2011. Natural Building A Prelude. 2011 Sustainable Architecture Conference, National Taipei University of Technology Department of Architecture and Urban Design. 2011. p. 32 (in Chinese) Oliver, P., 2006. Built to Meet Needs: Cultural Issues in Vernacular Architecture, Architectural Press, Oxford Pan, X., 2011. Return of Regional Architecture, Hua-Zhong Architecture, Vol. 29, No.1. Rieth, T., 2008. Natural Building: Creating Communities Through Cooperation. Schiffer Publishing, Atglen, PA Smiley, L., 2002. Intuitive Design, in Kennedy, J., Smith, M. and Wanek, C. (Eds.), The Art of Natural Building: Design, Construction, Resources, pp 4348, New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, BC, Canada. Smith, M., 2002. The case for natural building, in Kennedy, J., Smith, M. and Wanek, C. (Eds.), The Art of Natural Building: Design, Construction, Resources, pp 610, New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, BC, Canada.
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ENHANCED FUNCTION MODELING FOR ANALYSIS OF INNOVATIVE CONSTRUCTION TECHNOLOGIES

Chih-ming Wu Chung Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, R.O.C., Email: d09603004@chu.edu.tw Wen-der Yu Chung Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, R.O.C., Email: wenderyu@chu.edu.tw Tai-shiuh Chen Chung Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, R.O.C., Email: m09916011@cc.chu.edu.tw
Abstract This paper presents an enhanced function modeling method, namely Solid-model Enhanced Function Modeling (SEFM), which integrates the merits of solid modeling with those of function modeling. The proposed SEFM method can extract two types of important parameters from the solid model of a construction technology: (1) geometric parameters that specify the dimension information of the physical technology components, so that both operating and cost attributes can be assessed; (2) material parameters that specify the strength and quality grade information, so that functionality and cost attributes are determined. Such parameters were not provided by the traditional function modeling methods. A set of specific utility functions are developed to cope with the proposed SEFM. Such integration offers a useful tool for the analysis of innovative technology alternation in the early technology development stage. An innovative construction fall protection safety fence is selected as a case study to demonstrate the usability of the proposed SEFM. From the results of case study, it is concluded that the proposed SEFM method can improve the capture of important technology attributes that are essential to the analysis and improvement of construction technologies. Keywords: construction engineering, function modeling, innovation, technology evaluation.
1. INTRODUCTION
Technology innovation has been a major driving force for the advancement of construction engineering. Traditionally, technology improvement happened by accident and was mostly initiated by site engineers who encountered with problems that were not taken into account by planning or design engineers. In 1970s, the process simulation approach was adopted to analyze construction technologies from the viewpoint of optimum resource allocation. Such
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an approach employed process modeling techniques to mimic the construction processes and focused on optimum utilization of leading resources, e.g., major mechanical equipment or technicians. At the end of 1970s, the constructability programs were proposed by CII and implemented in many industrial and building projects. The constructability programs provided a different angle to view the analysis of construction technologies. That is, to evaluate the construction technology or process from the perspective of easiness for construction works during planning, design, and field operation phases. Although CII raised the concept to measure the constructability of construction operations so that technology can be improved to increase such a measure, no quantitative model were proposed or suggested. Later, researchers proposed tools and model for quantitative measurement of constructability index based expert judgment and historical knowledge. Just recently, computer aided innovation (CAI) tools were adopted to improve construction technologies. Such tools employed a different representation method for innovative technologies, which is called function modeling (FM). The function modeling uses a simple form of language to model the interactions among the components of a construction technology, so that the critical functionality of the technology is captured and represented. The SAO form does not only provide a simple and useful tool to model a technology so that engineers can communicate on; it also complies with the structure of value equation. As a result, the FM method has been widely adopted by technology innovators in the past decades. Although FM has its merits as described above, drawbacks exiting in FM that have caused the difficulty for technology innovation: no dimension or material information was provided by FM, resulting in difficult for evaluation of function, cost-effectiveness, and constructability measures of the technology. Without such information, it is very difficult to determine whether an innovative technology is superior to the traditional one. It is also impossible to cease a low value technology innovation project before major cost is spent. The current research is aimed at resolving the weakness of the traditional FM method. A Solid-model Enhanced Function Modeling (SEFM) is proposed that integrates the merits of solid modeling with those of function modeling. The interactions among the components are then modeled by SAO chains of the traditional FM. With such integration, the measures of function, costeffectiveness, and constructability for the innovative technology compared with the traditional technology can be modeled by utility functions. The paper is structured as follows: the traditional function modeling method is reviewed first; then, the solid-model enhanced function modeling method is proposed; following that, an example is demonstrated to apply the proposed SEFM method. Finally, conclusions are drawn and future research directions are suggested.
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2. TRADITIONAL FUNCTION MODELING METHOD

2.1. Historical Development Functional modeling is a critical method and the key step in product design process (Stone and Wood, 2000). It has been widely adopted in mechanical and many other areas and has demonstrated its benefits for assisting product designers (Pahl and Beitz, 1996; Kirschman and Fadel, 1998; Stone and Wood, 2000). There have been numerous functional modeling methodologies proposed by different researchers (Pahl and Beitz, 1996; Kirschman and Fadel, 1998). All of which follow a similar procedure: they begin with an overall product function and then break that function down into sub-functions via a process quite similar to the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) method widely adopted in construction project management. The functional modeling method proposed by Pahl and Beitz (1996) may be the most wellknown. They model the overall function of a product and decompose it into sub-functions operating on three types of flows: energy, material, and signals. Pahl and Beitzs function modeling approach was a great advance in engineering design, but their methodology did not provide a comprehensive list of sub-functions to describe all possible engineering systems or produce repeatable functions (Kurfman et al., 2003). As a result, two engineers may generate two different function models for a set of same product/technology and customer needs.
2.2. Subject-Action-Object Function Models A different representation scheme for function modeling, which has been widely adopted by most commercial computer aided innovation (CAI) software (e.g., Goldfire Innovator, CREAX, etc.) is the Subject-Action-Object (SAO) function models. The SAO FM in systems engineering and software engineering is a structured representation of functions, activities or processes within the modeled system or subject area (NIST, 1993). A SAO FM defines the relationships between system elements in terms of the functions they perform (Liu, 2009). In a SAO FM, a function is an action that directly changes or maintains a controllable or measurable parameter of a (material) object." The SAO FM is depicted in Figure 1. Examples of actions are move, remove, burn, weld, count, deposit, inform, rotate, hold, conduct, carry, etc. The SAO FMs represent a system (describing the functions of a product/technology) with two natural language templates: (1) Action-Object (AO), e.g., move (A) table (O); (2) Subject-Action-Object (SAO), e.g., conveyer (S) moves (A) table (O). A parameter is a directly measurable or controllable characteristic associated with a material object which is affected by a function. Examples of parameters affected by actions are length, area, volume, mass, density, volts, bits, joules, coulombs, temperature, roentgens..., etc. A common way to identify the SAO FM for a product/technology is by asking the following questions: (1) What parameter of the object is controlled of changed by the action? (2) How do I measure action object?
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Figure 1: Schematic representation of SAO FM
Although The Pahl and Beitzs FM can be exactly transformed into an SAO FM, the SAO FM is more relevant to the original V+N function definition in value analysis (Miles, 1972). It is also more intuitive to the technology engineers who are familiar with the value analysis. As a result, the SAO FM is more widely adopted than the original Pahl and Beitzs FM.
2.3. Procedure for Building SAO Function Models The SAO FM provides a useful tool to capture the functional characteristics of a construction technology. Several previous researchers have suggested procedures to build the FM for a technology including Kurfman et al.s five-step procedure (2003) and Yu et al.s five-step procedure (2012). Although the Kurfman et al.s procedure provides a good guideline for engineers to develop their function models, two requirements are necessary before a successful FM is built. In order to improve the abovementioned weakness, Yu et al. (2012) proposed an improved version five-step procedure for building FM: (1) search technology database (e.g., specifications and patent databases)find out the target technology based on the innovation problem (or customer needs); (2) identify key componentsidentify the important components (and their descriptive terms) of the target technology with the elements depicted in the figures of the document; (3) identify SAO chainsidentify individual SAO structures from the claims of the technology document with a txt mining technique; (4) aggregate SAO chainsform the complete FM of the target technology by aggregating the individual SAO chains; and (5) verify the FMmake sure that each innovation problem or customer need is addressed with at least one SAO chain, if not, iterate through the steps again starting at Step 3.With the aid of the above procedure, the engineers are able to build reusable and reliable FMs that can assist in the process of technology innovation.
2.4. Drawbacks of the Traditional Function Models Although the traditional SAO function models provide a simple approach to model a technology so that technology innovators can communicate and work on, such models lack two types of technological parameters that are important for technology analysis: (1) the geometric parameters that specify the dimension information of the physical technology components, so that both operating and cost attributes can be assessed; (2) material parameters that specify the strength and quality grade information, so that functionality and cost attributes are determined. Without the abovementioned parameters, the FM is only a conceptual modeling tool that is unable to provide quantitative measures on the critical
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characteristics of a technology, such as functionality (e.g., strength provided, safety improvement, etc.), cost effectiveness (e.g., installation cost and operation cost), and constructability/operability (e.g., time required or complexity of operation).
3. PROPOSED SOLID-MODEL ENHANCED FUNCTION MODELING METHOD

In order to improve the drawbacks of the traditional SAO FM, a new FM approach is proposed in this paper namely Solid-model Enhanced Function Modeling (SEFM) method.
3.1. Solid Modeling Method Solid modeling is the process of building and analyzing geometrically complete representations of points, lines, polygons, and three-dimensional solid objects (Austin and Preston, 1992). It is a consistent set of principles for mathematical and computer modeling of three-dimensional solids, which is distinguished from related areas of geometric modeling and computer graphics by its emphasis on physical fidelity (Shapiro, 2001). The principles of geometric and solid modeling form the foundation of computer-aided design and in general support the creation, exchange, visualization, animation, interrogation, and annotation of digital models of physical objects. The originality of solid modeling dates back to mid-1970s in response to a very specific need for informational completeness in mechanical geometric modeling systems. Three basic requirements were considered for a solid model (Shapiro, 2001): (1) Any constructed representation should be valid in the sense that it should correspond to some real physical object; (2) Any constructed representation should represent unambiguously the corresponding physical object; and (3) The representation should support (at least in principle) any and all geometric queries that may be asked of the corresponding physical object.
3.2. Computer-Aided Tool for Solid Modeling In modern computer-aided design (CAD) technologies, solid modeling has been embedded in the commercial CAD tools, such AutoDesks Revit, Inventor, etc. Solid modeling software creates a virtual 3D representation of components for machine design and analysis (LaCourse, 1995). Moreover, information regarding to geometric and material parameters is also represented by solid modeling tools. As a result, modern computer-aided tools can be employed to support solid modeling functions of the proposed SEFM method. In this paper, the AutoDesk Inventor is adopted as the tool for implementing solid modeling. Inventor is 3D mechanical solid modeling design software for creating 3D digital prototypes used in the design, visualization and simulation of technology design. It includes an integrated motion simulation and assembly stress analysis environment. Users can input driving loads, friction characteristics, and dynamic components, then run dynamic simulation
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tests to see how a product will work under real-world conditions. Inventor also includes a Building Information Modeling (BIM) Exchange tool, used to create and publish simplified 3D representations, intelligent connection points, and additional information in native file formats for AutoCAD MEP software.
3.3. Solid-Model Enhanced Function Modeling As described in the previous sections, the solid modeling provides complete information of an object, including the geometric and material parameters. Computer-aided tools, such as Inventor, provide required functions for solid modeling. An example Solid-model Enhanced Function Modeling (SEFM) developed based on Inventor is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Schematic representation of a sample SEFM
From Figure 2, there are two portions in a SEFM: (1) functional componentsincluding the Subject (S), Object (O), and Action (A) in the traditional FM; (2) parameter components (depicted as shadow areas in Figure 2)including geometric and material parameters. The functional components constitute the SAO chains similar to the traditional SAO FM. It models the macro functional characteristics of an object. The parameter components model the geometric parameters and material parameters of the object or device. With such information, the engineers are able to analyze the strength (functionality) of the structural members and estimate the cost required to construct the members. Moreover, the spatial information required to conduct constructability analysis can also be acquired from the SEFM.
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4. DEMONSTRATED EXAMPLE
4.1. Technology Background In this section a case study for application of the proposed SEFM to model a fall protection technology is demonstrated. The target technology is selected from the result of a research project supported by the Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (IOSH) of Taiwan. In that project, an innovative protection safety fence was proposed to replace the traditional safety fence for preventing labors from falling into the elevator shaft. Falls in elevator shafts, while transporting materials, have killed more than ten lives in the past decade in Taiwan. It is a major occupational disaster for the labors since such disasters usually cause severe injury or even death once happened.
4.2. Technology Modeling 1. Function modeling The FM of the traditional safety fence for elevator shaft is depicted in Figure 3, where the fence rail combines with fence frame that is locked into the wall with axial set using a bolt.
Figure 3: FM of traditional safety fence for elevator shaft
2. Solid modeling The AutoDesk Inventor is adopted as the tool to build the solid model of the target technology. The result is shown in Figure 4, where the geometric attributes are completely represented. The fence frame is locked into the wall with the axial set. Such a device is used to cover the elevator shaft so that labors are prevented from falling into the shaft.
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Figure 4: Solid model of traditional safety fence for elevator shaft
3. Component extraction for traditional safety fence Once the solid model is built, the geometric and material parameters can be extracted from the model. The AutoDesk Inventor supports a higher level extraction to provide information on major components. Table 1 shows major components extracted.
No 1 2 3 4 Component AISC - L 1 x 1 x 1/8 - 165.354 ANSI - 1/2 x 0.109 - 39.254 hinge bolt Quant. 4200 4968.25 2 4 Volume (cm3) 631.67 161.02 46.14 10.02 Weight (kg) 4.97 1.27 0.4 0.02 Material Steel Steel stainless steel Steel Unit cost Estimate (TWD$/per) (TWD$) $110 $462 $80 $397 $50.5 $101 $10 $40 Sum: $1,000/per
Table 1: Major components extracted for traditional safety fence
4. Building solid-model enhanced function model (SEFM) for traditional safety fence The SEFM of the target technology has been shown in Figure 2, where the functional components are exactly the same as those shown in the FM (see Figure 3). However, the parameter components reveal information on the geometric and material parameters so that major components can be extracted. 5. Component extraction for innovative safety fence An innovative safety fence technology has been developed by the research team. The innovative technology adopts a new design that revolves vertically instead of horizontally.
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With such a setup, labors are no longer exposed to the openness of the shaft, so that they are protected from falling. The extracted major components are shown in Table 2. 6. Building solid model for innovative safety fence The solid model of the innovative safety fence is built using Inventor and is shown in Figure 4. There four major components in the solid model of the innovative safety fence: bottom panel; (2) fence frame; (3) Axial member; and (4) luck. By integrating the components together, an innovative safety fence technology is implemented.
No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Component ISO 1035/3 30 x 6 1094 ISO 657/14 26.9 x 2.3 275 AISC L 1 x 1 x 1/8 165.354 ISO 1035/3 30 x 6 1250 ISO 1035/3 30 x 6 1100 ISO 4019 26.9x2.0 550 Bottom Axial member Chain Ring Pin Lock Bolt Quant. 1094 550 4700 5000 3300 550 1 1 2 2 2 2 6 Vol. (cm3) 192 489 707 225 194 86 658 357 103 2 115 95 10 Weight (kg) 1.51 0.38 20.51 1.77 1.52 0.68 0.66 2.81 0.10 0.00 0.93 0.77 0.21 Mat. Steel Steel Steel Steel Steel Steel Steel Steel Steel Stain. Stl Stain. Stl Steel Steel Unit cost (TWD$/per) $80 $200 $110 $80 $80 $200 $600 $100 $90 $25 $150 $40 $10 Estimate (TWD$) $88 $110 $517 $400 $264 $110 $600 $100 $180 $50 $300 $80 $60
Material cost: 2,859; Manufacture cost:1143; Total cost $4,000/per Table 2: Major components extracted for innovative safety fence
Bottom panel
Fence frame
Axial member
Lock
Figure 4: Solid model of innovative safety fence for elevator shaft
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4.3. Technology Analysis Among the many objectives/attributes of a construction technology, three are of most significance for technology analysis: (1) the functionalitycharacterizing the required functions for the technology; (2) constructability/operabilitycharacterizing the easiness or efficiency while using the technology; and (3) cost effectivenesscharacterizing the required monetary investment to implement the technology. In evaluating the value of an innovative technology, all these three attributes should be taken into account in order to make a correct decision. One of the most widely adopted approaches to assess the above technology attributes is the expected utility (EU) method (Keeney and Raifa, 1976). The EU approach assumes that the behavior of decision makers is always trying to maximize the overall expected utility for all objectives. The utility functions reflect the behaviors of the decision maker when he makes his decisions. Basically, there are three types of utility functions representing three types of decision makers: (1) risk averse; (2) risk neutral; (3) risk seeking. Fig. 5 shows the three types of utility functions associated with the three types of decision makers. Following describes the assessment of the utility functions for the three technology attributes.
Figure 5: Types of utility function based risk attitude
1. Utility assessment for functionality The functionality of a fall protection safety fence is to prevent labor from falling into the elevator shaft. The coverage of openness is considered by most international specifications while regulating the installation of a safety fence, such a regulation is also defined in the labor safety regulation of Taiwan. Moreover, the risk attitude of a decision maker toward the adoption of a safety device due to functionality is usually risk-seeking, which means that a little improvement of safety will encourage the adopter significantly. As a result, the riskseeking (convex) utility function is adopted for functionality. According to McNamee and Celona (2001), the risk-seeking utility function can be assessed using Eq. (1). The utility assessment results are shown in Table 3.
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U( F ) = U ( X ) =
1 exp{ (Pmax Pmin ) / RP( <0 )
1 exp{ ( X Pmin ) / RP( <0 )
],
(1)
where X is a measure of the functionality performance parameter of the target technology; Pmin indicates the functionality performance of the traditional technology; Pmax indicates the ideal performance; and Rp is the risk curvature, RP>0.
Type A (ideal) B (innovative) C (traditional) Coverage area 13090= 11700cm
2
Coverage (%) 100 82 0
Utility 1 0.89 0
13073.5= 9587.5cm2 130cm0= 0cm

2
Note: the utility of the traditional safety fence is considered 0 since it does cover any openness while operating. Table 3: Functionality utility assessment for safety fence
Fitting the utility assessment results of Table 3 with a 2nd order quadratic equation, the utility function for functionality can be obtained as shown in Figure 6.
Figure 6: Utility function for functionality
2. Utility assessment for operability In assessing the operability of the fall protection safety fence, the required operating time and steps is considered as most critical factors. That is, the shorter operating time and less operating steps indicating the higher operability, and thus the higher utility. The required operating time and steps are analyzed by process analysis. The utility assessment results are shown in Table 4. The risk attitude of a decision maker toward the adoption of a safety
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device due to operability is usually risk-averse. That is, the technology wont gain popularity unless it is well-proved to improve the operability. As a result, the risk-averse (concave) utility function is adopted for operability. According to McNamee and Celona (2001), the riskseeking utility function can be assessed as Eq. (2)
U( F ) = U ( X ) = 1 exp{ (Pmax Pmin ) / RP( >0 ) 1 exp{ ( X Pmin ) / RP( >0 )
],
(2)
where X, Pmin, Pmax and Rp are defined as those in Eq. (1).

Operating time Daily operating Daily work time Relative ratio (%) (sec) frequency A (ideal) 57.6 500 100% 8 hr. B (innovative) 121 238 48% C (traditional) 93 310 62% (28,800 sec.) D (worst) 576 50 10% Note: assume that: (1) total material transported = 100,000kg per day; (2) 200kg per cart. Type Table 4: Operability utility assessment for safety fence Utility 1.0 0.31 0.47 0.0
Fitting the utility assessment results of Table 4 with a 2nd order quadratic equation, the utility function for operability can be obtained as shown in Figure 7.
Figure 7: Utility function for operability
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3. Utility assessment for cost-effectiveness In assessing the cost-effectiveness of the fall protection safety fence, the required monetary cost is considered as an objective indicator. That is, the decision makers utility is determined by the cost spent for the target technology. The less cost required implies the higher utility. The utility assessment results are shown in Table 5. It is noted that the risk attitude of a decision maker toward the adoption of a safety device due to costeffectiveness is usually risk-neutral. That is, the amount of increased utility is proportionate to the amount of cost saved. As a result, the risk-neutral (linear) utility function is adopted for operability. According to McNamee and Celona (2001), risk-neutral utility function is assessed as Eq. (3)
U ( RIi ) = RI i Rmin Rmax Rmin
(3)
where U(RIi) is the utility of the ith risk factor; RIi is the cost for the ith risk factor; Pmin and Pmax are defined as those in Eq. (1).
Equivalent installation cost 0 20 80 200 Prob. of falling Indemnity (TWD$) Covered area (%) 100% 82% 0 100% Uncovered area (%) 0% 18% 100% 0% Cost of risk (TWD$) 0 89.2 71.0 200
Type A (ideal) B (innovative) C (traditional) D (worst)
Utility 1.00 0.55 0.64 0
0.1276
40,000
Table 5: Cost-effectiveness utility assessment for safety fence
Fitting the utility assessment results of Table 5 with a 2nd order quadratic equation, the utility function for cost-effectiveness can be obtained as shown in Figure 8.
Figure 8: Utility function for operability
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4. Aggregation of overall utility The utilities of the three technology attributes (functionality, operability, and costeffectiveness) are aggregated by adding up the individual utility values. This has assumed that the utility functions are additive. Before doing that, the weightings for individual utility values are assessed via Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) (Saaty, 1979). They are 0.648, 0.2298, and 0.1222 for functionality, operability, and cost-effectiveness, respectively. With the weightings, the overall utility for the traditional (UTrad.) and innovative (UInnov.) safety fence technologies are: UTrad.=0.648(0)+0.2298(0.64)+0.1222(0.47)=0.20 UInnov.=0.648(0.89)+0.2298(0.55)+0.1222(0.31)=0.74 (4) (5)
It is clear that the innovative safety fence technology gains a much higher utility than the traditional safety fence technology. As a result, the development of innovative safety fence technology is suggested after analysis.
3. CONCLUSIONS
This paper presents a new function modeling (FM) method, namely Solid-model Enhanced Function Modeling (SEFM). The proposed SEFM method integrates the merits of both solid modeling and function modeling to form a more powerful technology modeling method. The SEFM preserves the simplicity of the traditional FM method in representing the major functionality of the technology; however, it also improve the drawbacks of the traditional FM by providing the geometric and material parameters that are desirable for assessment of three most important technology attributes: functionality, constructability/operability, and cost-effectiveness. The utility theory is incorporated with the SEFM to assist decision making in decision making for technology innovation. A case study for application of the proposed SEFM is demonstrated on the fall protection safety fence technology. From the results of case study, it is concluded that the proposed SEFM provides many desirable features than the traditional FM method, including: (1) providing geometric parameters that are useful for cost, constructability, and strength calculation for the technology; (2) providing material parameters that are useful for cost and quality assessment; (3) providing visualization for the innovative technology scenario; (4) more detailed analysis of feasibility and more informative for technology implementation. Future research directions include: (1) computerized system for SEFM method; (2) more implementation case studies to draw firm conclusions; (3) integration with BIM.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This research project was funded by the National Science Council, Taiwan, under project No. NSC 99-2221-E-216-041-MY2. Sincere appreciations are given to the sponsor by the authors.
REFERENCES
Kelley, J. E. Jr. and Walker, M. R., 1961. Critical Path Planning and Scheduling: Mathematical Basis. Operations Research, Vol. 9, No. 3., pp. 296320. Austin, M. A. and Preston, J. L., 1992. Solid Modeling of RC Beams: I. Data Structures and Algorithms, Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 389403. Kirschman, C. and Fadel, G., 1998. Classifying Functions for Mechanical Design. Journal of Mechanical Design, ASME, Vol. 120, No 3, pp. 475482. Kurfman, M. A., Stock, M. E., Stone, R. B., Rajan, J., and Wood, K. L, 2003. Experimental Studies Assessing the Repeatability of a Functional Modeling Derivation Method. Journal of Mechanical Design, ASME, Vol. 125, No. 4, pp. 682693. Liu, H. C., 2009. Design and Study of Automated Text Summarization for Extracting SAO Structures from Chinese Patent Documents, Master Thesis, Department of Information and Computer Science, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan. (in Chinese) McNamee, P. and Celona, J., 2001. Decision analysis for the professional, 4th Edition, Smartorg Inc, CA. Miles, L., 1972. Techniques of Value Analysis Engineering, McGraw-Hill, New York, NY, USA. NIST, 1993. FIPS Publication 183, released of IDEF by the Computer Systems Laboratory of the National Institute of Standards and Technology, USA. Pahl, G. and Beitz, W., 1996. Engineering Design: A Systematic Approach, 2nd ed., Springer-Verlag, London, UK. Shapiro, V., 2001. Solid Modeling. Handbook of Computer Aided Geometric Design, G. Farin, J. Hoschek, M.-S. Kim, eds. Elsevier Science Publishers. Stone, R. B. and Wood, K. L, 2000. Development of a Functional Basis for Design. Journal of Mechanical Design, ASME, Vol. 122, No. 4, pp. 359370. Yu, W.D., Cheng, S.T., Wu, C.M. and Lou, H.R., 2012. A Self-Evolutionary Model for Automated Innovation of Construction Technologies. Automation in Construction. (paper in press)
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PRODUCT COST REDUCTION OF READY-MIXED CONCRETE BY UTILIZING MANUFACTURED SAND: A CASE STUDY
Patcharaporn Yanpirat Industrial Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Kasetsart University (Main Campus), Bangkok 10900, Thailand, fengppy@ku.ac.thl Tirayot Thamwongsa Engineering Management Program, Faculty of Engineering, Kasetsart University (Main Campus), Bangkok 10900, Thailand
Abstract The objective of this paper is to reduce the direct material costs in the manufacturing process of ready-mixed concrete. In particular, the replacement of a fine aggregate of natural sand by manufactured sand was considered in the selected case study. The experimental approach with full factorial analysis was employed to analyze the main effects as well as the interaction effects of the proportion of replacement level by mass, and the percentage level of the resolution of the manufactured sand when passing through sieve number 200. The relationship between compressive strength and the aforementioned factors was also analyzed by regression analysis for further mixing formula. In addition, risk analysis on the supply, price, and quality of manufactured sand in production, and the estimates of cost reduction were also undertaken. The findings revealed average compressive strength value at a 28-day curing time, conforming to the required standards, and the replacement level at 50% by mass with 7% finer passing through sieve number 200 was at an appropriate level. For risk analysis, it revealed that a low risk level affected production. With respect to the economic point of view, cost savings of approximately 0.68 EUR per cubic meter or 0.22 million EUR per year was obtained, which represents an attractive alternative for the manufacturer in enhancing competitiveness under the contemporary business environment. Keywords: manufactured sand, product cost reduction, ready-mixed concrete.
1. INTRODUCTION
Traditionally, natural sand has been used as a fine aggregate in mortars and concrete. Readymixed concrete is widely used in construction in Thailand because of its consistency in quality and its competitive price compared to hand-mixed concrete. The substitution of key materials is a common practice for product cost reduction in the manufacture of cement products. Limestone, pulverized fuel ash, ground granular blast slag, or silica fume is used as
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a partial replacement for Portland cement while fine aggregate manufactured from recycled waste polyethylene terephthalate bottles (Choi et al., 2009), crushed rock deposits (Nanthagopalan and Santhanam, 2011), or limestone from quarries (Menadi et al., 2009) can be used for natural sand especially in a non-economically viable area. The use of manufactured sand with at least 10% finer and a replacement level up to 15% has no affect on the durability of concrete especially on chloride ion permeability and freeze-thaw resistance (Beixing et al., 2011). In the studies of Malhotra and Carette (1985) and Gonalves et al. (2007), the concrete made with manufactured sand that contained 714% finer could achieve compressive strength equal to or 1020% higher than concrete made with natural sand, without any harmful effects on the physical and mechanical properties of the cement but with a significantly higher impact on water demand than that of natural sand. The aforementioned findings are also supported by Ilangovana et al. (2008) and Menadi et al. (2009). In the east coast area of Thailand, there are 9 limestone crushing plants near the selected case study; a ready-mixed concrete factory. Manufactured sand is considered as a by-product with an average supply of 845 thousand tons per year whereas its utilization is necessary only in the concrete block industry and pavement construction projects accounting for approximately 15% of the total supply. This is because of the extensive available sources of natural sand and the tradeoff between the lower performance of workability while the mortar is fresh and the higher compressive strength of concrete made with manufactured sand. As a consequence, its price is lower than natural sand by approximately half. With the competitive price of manufactured sand, its properties, and the acceptable performance of the resulting concrete, the objective of this paper is to analyze the replacement proportion of manufactured sand for natural sand with respect to the standard requirement on the compressive strength of ready-mixed concrete, which is considered as an attractive alternative for product cost reduction in ready-mixed concrete manufacture in the case study. A risk analysis on the availability, price and quality of the manufactured sand from various suppliers is also undertaken in Section 2. In Section 3, an experimental approach with full factorial analysis was employed to analyze the main effects as well as the interaction effects of the replacement levels by the mass and percentage levels of finer passed though sieve number 200 on the response of compressive strength. The relationship between compressive strength and the aforementioned factors was also analyzed by regression analysis for further mixing formula. The product cost reduction is estimated in Section 4. Finally, Section 5 concludes this paper.
2. RISK ANALYSIS
2.1. Risk Criteria Risk criteria were determined by the management team of the two ready-mixed concrete factories in the case company groups in the aforementioned area via a brainstorming technique. The management team consisted of two production managers, the quality manager, the marketing manager, the section head of maintenance, and three plant managers. These criteria were the availability of supply, the price and the quality of
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manufactured sand in terms of fineness modulus (F.M.) and the percentage passing through sieve number 200. The classification of scoring scales for each criterion were assigned with respect to the risk level and the collected relevant data based on the fiscal year 2010 are shown in Tables 1 and 2, respectively.
2.2. Risk Assessment In accordance with the three criteria for risk assessment, the simple additive weighting (SAW) method, which is the best known and most widely-used MADM method, was used in this study. The total score for each plant is obtained by multiplying the comparable scale for each criterion by the importance weight assigned to the criteria and then by summing these products over all of the criteria (Yoon and Hwang, 1995). According to the decision group, an importance weight was assigned with 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3 for availability, price, and quality, respectively. The assessment results are summarized in Table 3.
Availability (Ton per year) (T < 58,041 )
58,04186,480 86,481114,920 114,921143,360 143,361171,800 171,801200,240 200,241228,680 228,681257,120 257,121285,560 > 285,560
Price (Baht per ton)

8690 8185 7680 7175 6670 6165 5660 5155 4650 4045
Percentage passing through sieve # 200

>19.00 17.0119.00 15.0117.00 13.0115.00 11.0113.00 9.0111.00 7.019.00 5.017.00 3.015.00 < 3.00
Scale
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Risk level Very high High Moderate Low Very low
Table 1: Risk criteria and scoring determination
Plant
Average Capacity (Ton per year) 1,320,000 600,000 108,000 180,000 360,000 108,000 360,000 120,000 180,000
Availability of Average by-product: Price Manufactured (Baht per Sand F.M. ton) (Ton per year) 314,000 150,000 29,600 48,000 92,000 29,600 92,000 34,000 56,000 40 70 50 80 70 90 75 75 70 3.52 3.47 3.69 3.14 3.47 3.68 2.99 3.41 3.38
Quality Percentage passing through sieve # 200 1 9.17 14.40 14.10 13.85 15.40 4.81 15.56 17.46 13.30 Samples 2 9.76 14.78 14.35 13.76 15.75 4.97 15.94 17.36 13.12 3 8.87 14.02 14.02 13.33 15.12 4.43 15.91 17.67 13.87 Mean 9.27 14.40 14.16 13.65 15.42 4.74 15.80 17.50 13.43 SD 4.00 7.73 7.36 7.57 8.44 0.80 8.89 9.93 7.01 95% CI
8.1410.39 13.4615.34 13.7314.58 12.9614.34 14.6416.21 4.055.43 15.2816.33 17.1017.89 12.4614.40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Table 2: Data for each criterion classified by plants
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Plant 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Risk Scale of Criteria Availability Price Quality Pr = 0.30 Pr = 0.40 Pr = 0.30 10 10 6 5 5 4 1 9 4 1 3 4 3 5 3 1 1 9 3 4 3 1 4 2 1 5 4
Overall Risk Level Total score 8.8 4.7 5.1 2.7 3.8 3.4 3.4 2.5 3.5 Risk level Low Moderate Moderate High High High High Very high High
Table 3: Risk assessment results
Based on the results shown in Table 3, the demand for manufactured sand in the case study was only 190,000 tons per year; therefore it was revealed that the first plant with the lowest risk level was the most appropriate source of manufactured sand compared with the rest.
3. EXPERIMENTAL DETAILS AND RESULTS

3.1. Materials
Chemical composition Cement (% by mass) Pulverized fuel ash (% by mass) Silicon dioxide (% SiO2) 19.78 58.41 Aluminium oxide (% Al2O3) 4.82 27.03 Ferric oxide (% Fe2O3) 3.36 6.11 Calcium oxide (% CaO) 64.76 1.35 Magnesium oxide (% MgO) 0.82 0.89 Sulfur trioxide (% SO3) 3.15 0.08 Potassium oxide (% K2O) 0.40 0.53 Sodium oxide (%Na2O) 0.02 0.02 Loss on Ignition (L.O.I) 2.27 3.54 Tricalcium Silicate (% C3S) 67 Dicalcium Silicate (% C2S) 6 Tricalcium Silicate (% C3A) 7.1 Tetra Ca-Al-Ferrite (% C4AF) 10 Remark: Method of analysis was x-ray fluorescence/Wet chemical.
Table 4: Chemical composition of cement and pulverized fuel ash
Portland cement types I and pulverized fuel ash conforming to ASTM C 150-04, ASTM C 311-02, respectively were used. The chemical composition is shown in Table 4. For aggregates, crushed stone with a maximum size of -#4 was used as coarse aggregate while natural sand with fineness modulus (F.M.) 2.89 and a specific surface area at 23,292 was used as fine aggregate. Chemical admixtures conforming to ASTM C 494, type D, and tap water were used.
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Manufactured sand supplied by the limestone crushing plant 1 was used as the fine aggregate to replace natural sand, and three levels of percentages passing through sieve number 200 were used. Their gain size distributions used with respect to the sieve analysis of aggregate by ASTM C 136 are shown in Figure 1. All mixing materials were controlled by using the same batches for all experiments.
3.2. Experimental Procedure All of the key materials were mixed together under the specific proportions with respect to the manufacturing process of the case study firm. The VEBE test was conducted for the cement pastes of each experiment conforming to BS1881 Part 4: 1983 to evaluate the slump flow value which was treated as a control parameter; 911 cm/30sec. The design of the experiment using full factorial analysis of manufactured sand in terms of % finer by mass and % replacement level by mass for natural sand were employed. Three levels of % finer; 3%, 7%, and 14%, and four levels for % replacement; 30%, 50%, 70%, 100% were used where the observed variable was considered in terms of compressive strength at 7and 28-day curing time. Cement pastes were mixed subject to the levels of designed manufactured sand fine content and the replacement levels of the experiments with identical mixing procedures for all the cement pastes. For each mix, 3 and 6 cubespecimens of size 15 x 15 x 15 mm3 were prepared having been air cured for 1 day and water-cured for 7 and 28 days, respectively in compliance with the curing method and test specimens of BS 1881: Part 3. A compressive strength test with the specific value of at least 240 kg/cm2 was undertaken in compliance with BS 1881: Part 4. The experimental results are shown in Table 5.
a) Coarse aggregate: crushed stone
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b) Fine aggregate: natural sand
c) Fine aggregate: manufactured sand Figure 1: Particle size distributions of coarse and fine aggregates
3.3. Experimental Results The analysis results of Table 6 and Figures 13 revealed that at a 5% significance level, the main effects on % finer and % replacement level of manufactured sand and the interaction affect the 7- and 28-day compressive strengths. With respect to the manufacturing requirement of the production, therefore, only 28-day compressive strength will be considered. In accordance with the regression analysis result shown in Table 7, the relationship between both factors classified by each mixing formula was in a quadratic form. Therefore, the useful functional form of compressive strength in terms of the function of % finer with the given % replacement levels could fulfill the practical information requirement for the manufacturer. Their relationship functions revealed with high accuracy and reliability are shown in Table 8 including the prediction range at a 95% confidence interval classified by a given % finer. The findings indicated that at all levels of % finer; 3%, 7%, 14%, combined with the entire given % replacement levels; 30%, 50%,
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70%, and 100%, the compressive strength values conformed to the standard requirement at a minimum of 240 Kg/cm3. With the aforementioned compressive strength results shown in Table 8, together with the controlled sample at 0% replacement level of the case study, it revealed that 7% finer at all levels of replacement provided the highest compressive strength values which corresponds to the study of Mingkai et al. (2008). For 3% finer, the appropriate replacement level could be used up to a maximum of 70% by mass whereas a maximum of 50% replacement level was possible for 14% finer. In practice the replacement level of manufactured sand in the case study was required at less than 50% with 7% finer because of the aim to reduce the risk on the quality of fresh concrete in terms of decreasing slump flow value due to its particular particle shape (Cortes et al., 2008) which yielded a lower workability performance for labor at the construction site while the mortar was fresh.
Manufactured Sand Fine Replacement content level (%) for (%) natural sand Compressive Strength* (Kg./cm ) Standard deviation 6.66 8.02 8.02 7.61 4.73 6.88 8.62 8.69 8.08 4.97 8.74 8.00 5.03 5.22 7.02 4.12 5.13 6.50 3.00 4.67 5.03 5.89 4.16 8.12 7.94 5.41
3
Curing 1 2 3 4 5 6 Mean Time (Days) 7 251 242 238 244 0 0 28 337 334 354 351 342 333 344 7 270 279 286 278 30 28 367 364 380 383 374 379 375 7 293 302 300 298 50 28 402 400 394 404 390 387 396 3 7 223 234 240 232 70 28 356 344 364 374 340 349 350 7 179 189 195 188 100 28 336 339 328 332 335 326 333 7 308 325 313 315 30 28 407 391 410 393 404 395 400 7 331 321 327 326 50 28 422 431 426 417 418 424 423 7 7 315 301 307 308 70 28 382 390 394 388 389 392 389 7 227 230 237 231 100 28 371 377 389 382 373 378 378 7 251 248 254 251 30 28 344 347 341 353 343 350 346 7 253 259 249 254 50 28 361 365 352 354 364 356 359 14 7 218 216 224 219 70 28 278 294 282 284 272 276 282 7 178 175 190 181 100 28 271 263 260 257 266 268 263 Remark: * Standard requirement of compressive strength is not less than 240 Kg/cm3
Table 5: Experimental results of 7 and 28 days compressive strength values
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Residual Plots for Compressive Strength at 7 days

Normal Probability Plot
99 90 50 10 1 -10 -5 0 Residual 5 10 Residual Percent 10 5 0 -5 -10
Versus Fits
200
240 280 Fitted Value
320
Histogram
6.0 Frequency Residual 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.0 -10 -5 0 Residual 5 10 10 5 0 -5 -10
Versus Order
10
15 20 25 Observation Order
30
35
Residual Plots for Compressive Strength at 28 days

Normal Probability Plot
99.9 99
Versus Fits
10 Residual
Percent
90 50 10 1 0.1
-10 -20 -10 0 Residual 10 20 250 300 350 Fitted Value 400
Histogram
12 Frequency Residual 9 6 3 0 -10 -10 -5 0 5 Residual 10 15 10
Versus Order
1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Observation Order
Figure 1: Residual plots for compressive strength at 7 and 28 days
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Source 7 days: % Finer % Replacement % Finer*% Replacement Error Total S = 6.57 ksc. 28 days: % Finer % Replacement % Finer*% Replacement Error Total S = 7.35 ksc.
SS 29,562.70 46,323.60 2,883.3 1,036.70 79,806.30
DF 2 3 6 24 35
MS 14,781.40 15,441.20 480.50 43.2
F-test 342.21 357.48 11.13
P-value <0.001 <0.001 <0.001
R-sq (adj.) = 98.11 % 71,499 39,558 33,890 4,055 149,001 2 4 8 75 89 35,749 9,889 4,236 54 661.26 182.93 78.36 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001
R-sq (adj.) = 96.77 %
Table 6: ANOVA-test between finer and replacement levels of manufactured-sand
M a in Effects P lot for C ompr e s s iv e S tr e ngth a t 7 da y s

Da ta M ea ns Mean Compressive Strength, kg/sq.cm. 300 % F ine r % Re pla cem ent
280
260
240
220
200 3 7 14 30 50 70 100
Interaction Plot for Compressive S trength at 7 days

Data Means Mean Compressive Strength, kg/sq.cm. 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 3 7 %Finer 14 Reference Quality
% Rep lacemen t 30 50 70 100
Figure 2: Plots of main effects and interaction for compressive strength at 7 days
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Main Effects Plot for Compressive Strength at 28 days

Data Means Mean Compressive Strength , kg/sq.cm. %Replacement 400 390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 30.00% 50.00% 70.00% 100.00% 3.00% 7.00% 14.00% %Finer
Interaction Plot for Compressive Strength at 28 days

Data Means Mean Compressive Strength , kg/sq.cm. 425 400 375 350 Reference Quality 325 300 275 250 3.00% 7.00% %Finer 14.00%
%Replacement 30.00% 50.00% 70.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Figure 3: Plots of main effects and interaction for compressive strength at 28 days
Term Constant %Finer %Replacement %Finer*%Finer %Replacement*%Replacement %Finer*%Replacement
Coefficient 287.801 31.582 0.786 1.884 0.009 0.067
SE 19.6473 3.0368 0.5207 0.1599 0.0038 0.0177
P-value 0.000 0.000 0.136 0.000 0.027 0.000
Table 7: Regression analysis on the main and interaction effects between the finer and replacement levels of manufactured sand for natural sand at a 28-day curing time on compressive strength values
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With the aforementioned compressive strength results shown in Table 8, together with the controlled sample at 0% replacement level of the case study, it revealed that 7% finer at all levels of replacement provided the highest compressive strength values which corresponds to the study of Mingkai et al. (2008). For 3% finer, the appropriate replacement level could be used up to a maximum of 70% by mass whereas a maximum of 50% replacement level was possible for 14% finer. In practice the replacement level of manufactured sand in the case study was required at less than 50% with 7% finer because of the aim to reduce the risk on the quality of fresh concrete in terms of decreasing slump flow value due to its particular particle shape (Cortes et al., 2008) which yielded a lower workability performance for labor at the construction site while the mortar was fresh.
Replacement level (%) Compressive strength value (CS) at 28-days curing time CS = 328.6 + 1,914 %Finer 12,765 %Finer 30 S.E. 7.60 220.39 1,246.17 P-value <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 S = 6.89 R (adj.) = 91.40% CS = 345.7 + 2,116 %Finer 14,453 %Finer 50 S.E. 6.49 188.27 1,064.52 P-value <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 S = 5.89 R (adj.) = 95.5% CS = 272.40 + 3,274 %Finer 22,949 %Finer 70 S.E. 7.84 227.09 1,284.06 P-value <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 S = 7.10 R (adj.) = 97.70% CS = 245.50 + 3,662 %Finer 25,206 %Finer 100 S.E. 6.16 178.86 1,011.35 P-value <0.001 <0.001 <0.001
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Finer level (%)
Upper-lower limit * (kg./cm )

3
3 7 14
368.50 380.50 394.00 406.00 340.34 352.33
3 7 14
391.04 401.29 417.88 428.12 353.54 363.79
3 7 14
343.82 356.18 382.99 395.35 274.82 287.18
3 7
327.80 337.53 373.47 383.20
S = 5.60 R (adj.) = 98.70% 14 259.30 269.04 Remark: * 95% of confidence interval of compressive strength where 240 kg./cm3 is the minimum requirement.
Table 8: Quadratic regression functions of compressive strength at 28 days
4. PRODUCT COST ESTIMATION

4.1. Estimation of cost reduction Analysis of the relevant costs using the incremental technique was employed with the cost savings generated by the replacement level of manufactured sand for natural sand. However, manufactured sand supplied by the first limestone crushing plant could provide
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only 9% finer passing through sieve number 200. In order to obtain the % finer at various percentages as required by the experiment, some additional washing processes were needed as a result of which the price will be marked up as shown in Table 9.
Percentage of finer passing through sieve number 200 3 7 14 Manufactured sand Transportation cost 48.76 48.76 48.76
Price 90 50 40
Total cost 138.76 98.76 88.76 (Unit: baht per ton)
Table 9: Relevant Cost of Manufactured Sand
The total relevant costs consisted of natural sand, manufactured sand, and water consumed in the mixing process whereas the cost of the rest of the key materials was constant. On the other hand, only the different costs between the alternatives of no replacement and partial replacement of manufactured sand were analyzed. The cost of natural sand including transportation cost was assumed at 171.88 baht per ton. The total costs and cost savings compared with the controlled sample (F0MS0) were estimated and analyzed as shown in Table 10.
Mixed Concrete formula F0MS0 F3MS30 F3MS50 F7MS30 F7MS50 F14MS30 344 375 396 400 423 346 Quantity1 0.00 231.00 385.00 231.00 385.00 231.00 Manufactured Price2 0.00 138.76 138.76 98.76 98.76 88.76 Sand 3 Cost 0.00 32.05 53.42 22.81 38.02 20.50 Quantity 770.00 539.00 385.00 539.00 385.00 539.00 Natural Sand Price 171.88 171.88 171.88 171.88 171.88 171.88 Cost 132.30 92.60 66.20 92.60 66.20 92.60 Quantity 185.00 200.00 183.00 205.00 180.00 195.00 Water Price 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Cost 3.70 4.00 3.70 4.10 3.60 3.90 Total Cost (Baht/m3) 136.00 128.70 123.30 119.60 107.80 117.00 3 Cost Savings (Baht/m ) 7.4 12.8 16.5 28.3 19.0 Remarks: 1, 2, and 3 are referred to units of kg./m3, baht./ton, and baht/m3, respectively. Compressive strength requirements of the case study (kg./cm2)
F14MS50 359 385.00 88.76 34.17 385.00 171.88 66.20 195.00 0.02 3.90 104.20 31.8
Table 10: The estimates of ready-mixed concrete classified by designed replacement levels of manufactured sand for natural sand
The findings indicated that manufactured sand with 14% finer and a 50% replacement level for natural sand provided the highest cost savings accounting for 31.8 baht per cubic meter followed by 7% finer and a 50% replacement level accounting for 28.30 baht per cubic meter in cost savings. The manufacturing process requirements in terms of an average compressive strength value was at least 344 kg./cm3 for a 28-day curing time in the case
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study, which was higher than the standard requirement at 240 kg./cm3 which was required to reduce the risk of process variation. Together with the results shown in Table 8 and the acceptable cost savings, therefore the replacement of natural sand by manufactured sand with 14% finer and a 50% replacement level was considered as an appropriate alternative for product cost reduction in the case study accounting for 9.08 million baht per year (or 0.22 million EUR per year) of cost savings based on a production capacity of 321,500 cubic meters per year.
5. CONCLUSIONS
Based on the experimental results in the laboratory and the manufacturing process requirements in terms of an average compressive strength value at least 344 kg./cm3 for a 28day curing time in the case study, the findings revealed that the appropriate replacement level of manufactured sand for natural sand was at 50% by mass with 7% finer passing through sieve number 200, which could fulfill such requirements with the minimum risk in terms of availability of the supply, price and quality of manufactured sand used. From an economic point of view, cost savings could be generated by such replacement at approximately 0.68 EUR per cubic meter or 0.22 million EUR per year accounting for 3% of the total material cost. However, the delimitation of this study was based on the concrete strength whereas the studies on durability of this kind of concrete especially when used in a monsoon area with high humidity and corrosion are still limited as well as the future research could also extend for testing how well it cope with flooding.
REFERENCES
eixing, L. Jiliang, W. and Mingkai, Z., 2009. Effect of Limestone Fines Content in Manufactured Sand on Durability of Low-and High-Strength Concretes. Construction and Building Materials, Vol. 23, pp. 28462850. Choi, Y.W., Moon, D. J., Kim, Y. J., and Lachemi, M., 2009. Characteristics of mortar and concrete containing fine aggregate manufactured from recycled waste polyethylene terephthalate bottles. Construction and Building Materials, Vol.23, pp. 28292835. Cortes, D.D., Kim, H.K., Palomino, A.M. and Santamarina, J.C., 2008. Rhiological and mechanical properties of mortars prepared with natural and manufactured sands. Cement and Concrete Research, Vol. 38, pp. 11421147. Goncalves, J. P., Tavares, L. M., Toledo Filho, R. D., Fairbaim, E. M. R., and Cunha, E. R., 2007. Comparison of natural and manufactured fine aggregates in cement mortars. Cement and Concrete Research, Vol. 37, pp. 924 932. Ilangovana, R., Mahendrana, N. and Nagamanib, K., 2008. Strength and durability properties of concrete containing quarry rock dust as fine aggregate. ARPN Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Vol. 3, pp. 20 26. Malhotra, V. M. and Carette, G. G., 1985. Performance of concrete incorporating limestone dust as partial replacement for sand. ACI J., Vol. 82, No. 3, pp. 363371. Menadi, B., Kenai, S., Khatib, J. and Ait-Mokhtar, A.,2009. Strength and durability of concrete incorporating crushed limestone sand. Construction and Building Materials, Vol. 23, pp. 625633.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Mingkai, Z., Jiliang, W., Lide, Z. and Tusheng, H., 2008. Effects of manufactured sand on dry shrinkage and creep of high-strength concrete. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology Mate, Vol. 23, pp. 249253. Nanthagopalan, P. and Santhanam, M., 2011. Fresh and hardened properties of self-compacting concrete produced with manufactured sand. Cement & Concrete Composites, Vol.33, pp. 353358. Yoon, K. P. and Hwang, C.-L., 1995. Multiple Attribute Decision Making: An Introduction, Sage Publications, Inc. California.B
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FACTORS AFFECTING COMPETENCY OF MASONS IN CONSTRUCTION

Bilal Zafar (National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad, Punjab, Pakistan, ch_bilal_zafar@yahoo.com) Dr. Rafiq Muhammad Ch. (National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad, Punjab, choudhry03@gmail.com)
ABSTRACT Competent masons are the need of good construction. Poor quality and low productivity are common problems on construction projects. One reason for this is incompetency of masons. Masons are responsible for most of the construction activities. There is need to identify the factors that hinder the display of masons competency in the field. The objective of this research was to identify factors that affect the competency of masons. Competency is governed by several variables including skills, motivation and personality traits. Factors of skills and motivation were retrieved from the literature review. Factors of personality traits were retrieved from the Big Five Personality Traits theory. The research hypothesized that skills, motivation and personality traits have equal impact on the masons competency. Data was collected through a questionnaire and was analyzed on Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). The relative importance of factors was found through the comparison of their relative importance indices. This research found motivation to be the most impactful category on masons competency followed by skills and then their personality traits. This research acquaints construction project managers with knowledge of the potential issues that masons encounter. Keywords: Competency, masons, motivation, personality traits, skill.
1. INTRODUCTION
The construction industry is among the most essential industries in any country. It is hard to overemphasize the importance of construction industry for all countries in general and the developing countries in particular. Despite its immense importance, the productivity of workers in the construction industry is lesser as compared to other industries (Zakeri et al. 1996). Productivity of workers is controlled by a number of tangible and intangible factors including the availability of resources, the competency of workforce and the support of management. This research is focused upon identifying the factors affecting competency of
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masons. Masons form bulk of the workforce and are directly involved in most of the construction activities. A significant population of masons is either unskilled or insufficiently trained. Lack of competent masons has exposed the constructors to numerous challenges. Incompetent masons produce poor quality work and show poor productivity. Several researchers (Smithers and Walker 2000, Gilbert and Walker 2001) have attempted to identify factors that control the workers motivation in construction projects, but most of them have involved people on the level of managers in their studies. Research pertinent to the identification of factors affecting competency and motivation of workforce at the level of a tradesman like a mason is extremely limited. This research identifies the factors affecting the competency of masons. The objective of this research is to identify factors affecting the competency of masons.
Competency is a vast and complex topic. Measurement of competency is very subjective. There are two schools of thought that interpret competency (Stern and Kemp 2004). The first one emphasizes that competency implies skill or knowledge. The second school of thought says that competency is any feature that supports performance. Competency comprises skill and several other factors including motivation and personality traits (Stern and Kemp 2004).
Theories of Motivation and Personality Traits Workers on construction sites frequently find themselves in circumstances that cause demotivation. Demotivation is caused by both a lack of motivators and the existence of demotivators. Various internal and external factors induce stresses in the workforce (Leung et al. 2010). Maslows Hierarchy of Needs theory shows a pyramid that consists of stages of needs. As we move towards the top of pyramid, the needs shift from basic to opportunistic. Maslows Hierarchy of Needs theory emphasizes that workers can only opt for selfactualization provided that they are offered to work in such conditions that fulfill all of their basic needs. Many workers simply do not self-actualize because they have their more important needs like safety, family and respect unmet. The Big Five Personality Traits theory describes the personality with the help of five fundamental traits which are openness to experience, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness and neuroticism. Openness encourages an individual to appreciate unusual ideas and explore new ways. People with low degree of openness tend to be resistant to change (McShane 2007). Conscientiousness causes an individual to act in a dutiful manner. Low level of conscientiousness causes laziness in an individual (Even 2003). Extraversion is an individuals tendency to be in others company. People who have a low degree of extraversion prefer loneliness (Atak 2009). Agreeableness is an individuals tendency to cooperate with others. People who measure low on the scale of agreeableness can be short-tempered (Even
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2003). Neuroticism is an individuals tendency to experience such negative states as anxiety and anger. High level of neuroticism causes depression in an individual (McShane 2007).
Competency of Workers A mason frequently encounters the need to be educated at least to the level that he can read, write and calculate. Masons have to measure lengths and multiply figures (Tatum 2012). Basic knowledge of math is compulsory for efficient working of a mason. A proper system of professional and vocational training improves the national competitiveness of workers (Wagner 2005). Loosemore and Lee (2002) refer to the language problems as the biggest hurdle in the way of integration of migrants into the local workforce. Lim and Alum (1995) found communication problems to be the fifth most important issue that affects productivity of foreign workers in the construction industry of Singapore. Lack of experience is a potential cause of cost overruns and delays in construction (Koushki et al. 2005). Nanayakkara and Green (2005) found that expression of gratitude and praise is considered a reward in Sri Lanka. Job insecurity causes a lot of emotional and psychological problems in workers and incurs the companies expenses in terms of lost productivity (Erlinghagen 2007). Nanayakkara and Green (2005) noted that some of the highly valued rewards by the masons in the construction industry of Sri Lanka include housing and accommodation. Zakeri et al. (1997) found lack of on-time payment to be the third most important demotivator. Resistance to change is a common problem wherever a change is implemented. Change is an inherent feature of the construction work. There occur frequent changes in the construction technology, work groups, routine and schedule. Masons may be reluctant to such changes because of their lack of expertise in new methods of construction and many other factors including bad relations with coworkers in the new group. Workers on construction sites waste a lot of time due to their laziness. Argyris (1971) found that only 33.33% to 50% of the total time of workers is spent in work. Owners identified labor-related factors including personal conflicts among workers as the issue with the maximal severity that caused delay in large construction projects (Assaf and Al-Hejji 2006). Short-temperedness is another reason for group conflicts that have been recognized as potential causes of delay in construction projects by Assaf and Al-Hejji (2006). Several researchers in the past (Kadir et al. 2005, Dai et al. 2009, Rivas et al. 2011) have attempted to study the factors that affect workers productivity. There has been very little research (Ismail and Abidin 2010) pertinent to the study of factors that affect workers competency. Competency of workers is one of the most fundamental predictors of the quality of work produced by them and their productivity. Identification of factors affecting competency is required to take necessary measures for the eradication or minimization. There is a gap in the literature regarding the factors that affect the competency of workers in general and of masons in particular. This research fills this gap by studying the factors that affect the competency of masons in construction. It is common practice to use questionnaires to identify factors (Dai et al. 2009, Ismail and Abidin 2010, Rivas et al. 2011), and this research is conducted by using a questionnaire.
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3. RESEARCH METHOD
A 15 factor questionnaire was used to investigate the relative importance of factors that affect the competency of masons. Since the weight of the categories of skills, motivation and personality traits was to be determined in the makeup of competency, all categories were assigned equal number of factors. The questionnaire contained two parts. The first part was related to the general information about the respondents, which included questions of respondents education, pathway to vocational training, certification status and experience as a mason. The second part consisted of the 15 factors affecting competency. The respondents were asked to rate the 15 factors depending upon their negative impact upon the masons competency. To achieve this, a 5 point Likert scale was used. The points 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 represented no negative impact, slight negative impact, negative impact, very negative impact and extremely negative impact respectively. The hypothesis of this research was that skill, motivation and personality traits have equal impact on the competency of a mason.
4. SAMPLE
To identify the total population of masons in the construction industry of Pakistan, organizations responsible for keeping the record including the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) and the statistical division of Pakistan were contacted. Convenience sampling was used because the total population of masons was not known. Due to lack of records, it was not possible to draw the sample size from the total population. Data was retrieved from 100 masons by approaching individually. The sample size for infinite population was derived from the formula cited in (Enshassi and Aqaad 2011). Of the 100 respondents, 57% were uneducated, 33% were educated till primary, 7% till middle while only 3% were educated till the Secondary School Certificate (SSC). The majority of respondents, 86% were trained in the informal apprenticeship system and only 14% were vocationally trained through the formal training system. 68% of the respondents were vocationally certified while 32% of the rest were not. The relative important index (RII) for each category was determined by taking the mean of the RII of their constituent factors. Relative Importance Index (RII) used to rank the impact of each factor on the competency of masons was computed by the formula used by (Olomolaiye et al., 1987; Shash, 1993). RII for each category was determined by taking the mean of the RIIs of the constituent factors.
5. RESULTS OF RESEARCH
Table 1 shows factors with their RII and ranks depending upon the magnitude of RII. The RII of the category of motivation was found to be the maximal, followed by skill and then the personality traits. The hypothesis i.e. skills, motivation and personality traits have equal weight in competency was rejected. Difference between the RII of the categories of
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motivation and skill was 0.0136, difference between the categories of skill and personality traits was found to be 0.0496 while difference between the categories of motivation and personality traits was found to be 0.0632. Of all the categories, results obtained for the category of personality traits were most surprising, in that one of the five personality traits included in this research was found to be on the first position depending upon the value of RII, one was found on the 7th position while three of the five personality traits studied were found to be on the 13th, 14th and 15th position with respect to the value of RII. This tells that there is a vast disparity in the effect of the Big Five personality traits upon the competency of masons. Category Skill Factor Lack of education Lack of formal training No method statement Linguistic differences Lack of experience Lack of appreciation Insult from supervisor Job insecurity Lack of accommodation Delay in payment of salary Resistance to change Laziness Loneliness Short-temperedness Depression RII 0.356 0.436 0.406 0.344 0.298 0.44 0.35 0.312 0.412 0.394 0.448 0.254 0.362 0.236 0.292 Rank 8 3 5 10 12 2 9 11 4 6 1 14 7 15 13 RII of category 0.368
Motivation
0.3816
Personality traits
0.3184
Table 1. RII of factors affecting competency
6. DISCUSSION
Table 2 shows the relative importance of each of the five factors of each category with respect to its impact upon the masons competency. Factor of skill Lack of formal training No method statement Lack of education Linguistic differences Lack of experience Factor of motivation Lack of appreciation Lack of accommodation Delay in payment of salary Insult from supervisor Job insecurity Factor of personality traits Resistance to change Loneliness Depression Laziness Short-temperedness Rank 1 2 3 4 5
Table 2. Ranking of factors of skill, motivation and personality traits
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Skill 86% of the masons in this research were trained informally through the informal apprenticeship system. This is consistent with the findings of Kazmi (2007) who found limited contribution of vocational institutions in training of workfoce. No mason included in this research was educated beyond SSC. These results are comparable to the findings of Wahab (2010) who found that 58.1% artisans in the construction industry of Nigeria were completely uneducated, 28.6% were educated till primary, while 6.7% artisans had acquired the SSC and Junior School Certificate (JSC). Linguistic differences play an important role in the hindrance of display of social competence on the part of the workers (Canales et al. 2009). Highly experienced masons are considered more competent and receive higher salaries (Javeid 2009).
Motivation All of the factors affecting motivation included in this research are fundamentally controlled by management. Management can do a lot to enhance the competency of masons by slight improvements in the policies. It takes very little effort to forbid the engineers and foremen from insulting masons. Merely by encouraging the engineers and foremen to appreciate the masons for their good work, management would be eradicating the second most impactful factor on the masons competency. Job insecurity is a bit difficult for the management to eradicate as this factor is controlled by several factors including the scope of work, and the performance of masons, yet job insecurity was found to be the least impactful of all factors of motivation included in this research and eleventh in its rank with respect to its RII. Motivational theories lack multi-focusing and are insufficient to give a realistic explanation of the potential ways in which the masons can be motivated (Nanayakkara and Green 2005). There is need to explore new ways of researching motivation in construction that are based on the social research theories (Burrell and Morgan 1979).
Personality Traits Three of the five personality traits were found to be ranked in the last five of the fifteen factors studied. This speaks of the fact that neuroticism, conscientiousness, and agreeableness are the personality traits that have a minimal role in depicting masons competency. However, the role of extraversion on masons competency is moderate while that of openness to experience is maximal. Maximal RII of the factor resistance to change means most masons measure low on the scale of openness to experience. This may be explained by the fact that masons develop affinity with coworkers in groups. They are comfortable with their roles in the groups and activities that are routine (Flynn 2005). Change of workgroup is unwanted as it requires an adjustment in the roles assumed by individual members of the group to do the activity. Masons are used to working in groups, and require an environment wherein they can interact with and learn from one another. Therefore, loneliness was perceived by the masons to have a moderate negative impact on
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their competency. Of the three categories of skill, motivation and personality traits, personality traits were found to have least impact on the masons competency.
7. CONCLUSION
This research attempted to identify the factors that affect the competency of masons, and evaluate the relative importance of skills, motivation, and personality traits in competency of masons. Skills, motivation and personality traits were found to have different weights in the definition of competency. Motivation, skills, and personality traits were the first, second and third most impactful categories on their competency. Factors when arranged in order of decreasing impact on the masons competency were resistance to change, lack of appreciation, lack of formal training, lack of accommodation, no method statement, delay in payment of salary, loneliness, lack of education, insult from supervisor, linguistic differences, job insecurity, lack of experience, depression, laziness and short-temperedness. This leads to the conclusion that to enhance the competency of masons, measures should be taken to improve the masons motivation, then skills and lastly, the personality traits. Information generated from this research might be of use to construction project managers, specifically in the developing countries whose masons encounter similar issues to those of masons in Pakistan. Construction project managers may adopt the measures proposed to enhance the competency of masons.
REFERENCES
Argyris, C. (1971). Management and Organizational Development: The Path from XA to YB. McGraw Hill, New York. Assaf, S.A., and Al-Hejji, S. (2006). Causes of delay in large construction projects. International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 24, No. 4, pp 349357. Atak, H. (2009). Big Five Traits and Loneliness among Turkish Emerging Adults. International Journal of Social and Human Sciences, Vol. 3, pp 10491053. Burrell, G. and Morgan, G. (1979). Sociological paradigms and organizational analysis: Elements of the sociology of corporate life. Aldershot, Gower. Canales, A.R., Arbelaez, M., Vasquez, E., Aveiga F., Strong, K., Walters, R., Jaselskis, E.J. and Jahren, C.T. (2009). Exploring Training Needs and Development of Construction Language Courses for American Supervisors and Hispanic Craft Workers. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Vol. 135, No. 5, pp 387396. Enshassi, A. and Aqaad, M. (2011). Assessing the level of the safety practice in construction companies in Palestine. The Islamic University Journal, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp 87102. Erlinghagen, M. (2007). Self-Perceived Job Insecurity and Social Context: A Multi-Level Analysis of 17 European Countries. European Sociological Review, <http://esr.oxfordjournals.org/content/24/2/183.abstract> Accessed on Feb. 2012. Even, R. B. (2003). An introduction to theories of personality. New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Flynn, F. J. (2005). Having an Open Mind: The Impact of Openness to Experience on Interracial Attitudes and Impression Formation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 88, No. 5, pp 816826.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary Gilbert, G.L. and Walker., D.H.T. (2001). Motivation of Australian white-collar construction employees: a gender issue? Engineering Construction and Architectural Management, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp 5966. Ismail, R. and Abidin, S.Z. (2010). Impact of workers competence on their performance in the Malaysian private service sector. Business and Economic Horizons, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp 2536. Javeid, Z. (2009). Impact of Training on Earnings: Evidence from Pakistani Industries. Asian Social Science, Vol. 5, No. 11, pp 7685. Kadir, M.R.A., Lee, W.P., Jaafar, M.S., Sapuan, S.M. and Ali, A.A.A. (2005). Factors affecting construction labour productivity for Malaysian residential projects. Structural Survey, Vol. 23, No. (1), pp 4254. Kazmi, S.W. (2007). Vocational education and skills development: a case of Pakistan. SAARC Journal of Human Resource Development, Vol. 3, pp 105117. Koushki, P.A., Al-Rashid, K. and Kartam, N. (2005). Delays and cost increases in the construction of private residential projects in Kuwait. Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 23, pp 285294. Leung, M.Y., Chan Y.S. and Yuen K.W. (2010) Impacts of stressors and stress on the injury incidents of construction workers in Hong Kong. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Vol. 136, No. 10, pp 10931110. Lim, E.C. and Alum, J. (1995). Construction productivity: issues encountered by contractors in Singapore. International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp 5158. Loosemore, M. and Lee, P. (2002). Communication problems with ethnic minorities in the construction industry. International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 20, No. 7, pp 517524. McGregor, J., and Gray, L. (2002). Stereotypes and older workers: the New Zealand experience. Social Policy Journal Of New Zealand Te Puna Whakaaro, Vol. 18, pp 163177. McShane, S. L. (2007). Organizational Behavior: Essentials. New Delhi: Tata McGraw Hill. Nanayakkara, L. and Green, S. (2005). The Motivation of Masons in the Sri Lankan Construction Industry, <http://www.irbnet.de/daten/iconda/CIB6348.pdf> Accessed on Feb 2012. Olomolaiye, P.O., Wahab, K.A. and Price, A.D.F. (1987). Problems in uencing craftsmen s productivity in Nigeria. Building and Environment, 22(4), 317323. Rivas, R.A., Borcherding, J.D., Gonzalez, V. and Alarcon, L.F. (2011). Analysis of Factors Influencing Productivity Using Craftsmen Questionnaires: Case Study in a Chilean Construction Company. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Vol. 137, No. 4, pp 312320. Shash, A.A. (1993) Factors considered in tendering decisions by top UK contractors. Construction Management and Economics, 11(2), 111118. Smithers, G.L. and Walker, D.H.T. (2000). The effect of the workplace on motivation and demotivation of construction professionals. Construction Management. and Economics, Vol. 18, No. 7, pp 833841. Stern, D. J. K. and Kemp, L. K. (2004). Competency-Based Human Resource Management. Davies-Black Publishing, USA. Tatum, M. (2012). What Does a Brick Mason Do? <http://www.wisegeek.com/what-does-a-brick-mason-do.htm> Accessed on Feb 2012. Wagner, K. (2005). Productivity and skills in industry and services a BritishGerman comparison. The Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 44, No. 4, pp 411438. Wahab, A. B. (2010). Stress Management among Artisans in Construction Industry in Nigeria. Global Journal of Researches in Engineering, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp 93103. Zakeri, M., Olomolaiye, P., Holt, G.D., and Harris, F.C. (1996). A survey of constraints on Iranian construction operatives' productivity. Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 14, pp. 417426. Zakeri, M., Olomolaiye, P., Holt, G.D., and Harris, F.C. (1997). Factors affecting the motivation of Iranian construction operatives. Building and Environment. Vol. 32, No. 2, pp 161166.
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APPLYING LEAN THINKING TO CEMENT PLANT CONSTRUCTION PROCESS Case Study On Silo Buildings
Kareem Zahran Graduate Student, American University in Cairo, Cairo, Egypt, k.zahran@aucegypt.edu Ahmed Waly Assistant Professor, American University in Cairo, Cairo, Egypt, awaly@aucegypt.edu
Abstract Throughout the past years, construction processes have become more and more complicated. This requires better application of innovative and creative ideas to simplify the construction process and eliminate any waste. Lean Construction/Thinking has been lately introduced to fulfill this need. Lean Thinking aims to increase the added value and to eliminate unnecessary items and processes; hence, reduces the needed time and cost of the project. Lean Thinking is most commonly applied through the engineering sense of site managers based on their experience. Through previous researches, the direct and indirect implementation of Lean Thinking, in most of the cases, shows satisfactory results for companies applying it. The objective of this research is to present a new technique, using Lean Thinking, to save time and cost during the construction of silos in cement plants. Silos are structures used for storing raw materials through the cement production process. Lean Thinking, applied through value stream mapping and kaizen Tools, suggested a change in the sequence of the construction activities, as well as the use of another shuttering method. First, the paper will briefly introduce the concept of Lean Construction and Thinking. Then, the paper will present the conventional method used in construction of silos in Egypt. The new method will, then, be thoroughly described along with a comparison between the duration and cost of each method. Some indirect effects of the application of Lean Thinking will also be shown. Finally, the paper will present some observations and recommendations for future applications of these lean tools. Keywords: Lean Construction, shuttering method, Value Stream Mapping, Kaizen Tools, Silo construction
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1. INTRODUCTION
Due to the increasing challenges in the construction field nowadays, investors, developers and contractors are aiming to get more value from their projects. This is achieved by increasing the added value and reducing/eliminating unnecessary items and processes, and, hence, reducing the overall cost of the project. This is defined as Lean Construction. Koskela and Howell (2002) also defined Lean Construction as a way to design production systems to minimize waste of materials, time and effort in order to generate the maximum possible amount of value. Lean principles have been first originated to be applied to manufacturing processes, as it is considered more a manufacturing technique rather than a construction technique. But when applied on construction processes, Lean Construction proved their efficiency and was as much beneficial to the construction processes as the manufacturing processes. This paper presents a new technique applying Lean Thinking on the construction of silos in cement production plants. The paper mainly questions the traditional method used in construction of these structures, and, through a case study, illustrates the benefits of the proposed method applying Lean Construction.
1.1. Lean Construction Lean Construction, also sometimes referred to as Lean Thinking, was first initiated as a production concept mainly concerned with several parameters as generating zero waste production systems, perfection, focusing on improving the whole delivery system instead of improving activities (Howell, 1999). Later, lean concepts moved from the application on manufacturing processes to be applied on construction processes as it has been recognized that same causes of wastes in manufacturing processes were present in construction processes but in different forms due to the difference in nature of both processes. Lean Construction has some essential features such as setting clear objectives for the delivery process, aiming at improving performance for customer at the project level, overlapping the design of product and process, and most importantly applying production control throughout the life of the project. Several tools and techniques are used to apply Lean Thinking such as last planner system, increased visualization, daily huddle meetings, first run studies, Kaizen Tools, 5S processes and fail safe for quality. Each of these tools can be applied according to the projects needs and objectives. Value Stream Mapping and Kaizen Tools are applied on the case study as suitable applications of Lean Thinking for cement silos construction. 1.1.1. Value Stream Mapping Value Stream Mapping (VSM) technique introduces many lean efforts. Mainly the term Value Stream represents all activities adding value to the final output of a certain process.
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VSM involves mapping all processes occurring in any operation and sorting them according to their type in terms of adding value or merely wastes. This highlights whatever wastes are in a process; hence, it allows the organization to research ways to reduce such wastes or to eliminate them. In other words, better concentration is given to the arrangement of a process in order to improve its efficiency. Finally, after studying the original process which is mapped as a current state map, and after adding new suggestions and changes a future map is created (Zimmer, 2006). Value Stream Mapping has been applied on various projects and different processes. For example, it was applied on the supply chain management of pipe supports (Arbulu & Tonnelein, 2002), where the output value was defined at first. Then the process of supply chain was analyzed to exclude any non-value adding activities. Furthermore, any waiting time periods, which exist in the process, were studied and excluded if possible. 1.1.2. Kaizen Tool The other Lean Construction tool applied on the case study is the Kaizen Tools. Kaizen is a Japanese word for improvement. This tool involves looking at certain tasks in the field and finding out how to do them better, more efficiently, safer and quicker (Daouda & Bernt, 2009). An important aspect of Kaizen is that the processes are repeatable, so they can be measured (Liker & Meier, 2006). Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) should be determined for that purpose. Before starting Kaizen activities, it is required to standardize processes, as standardization in general supports stability and reduces variation to facilitate the analysis of working processes. Then, standardized work is updated whenever a better solution is found. For instance, management standards should exist for meetings, communication, budget, and many other activities (Bicheno 2004; Liker 2004). Kaizen Tools have been applied along with some traditional safety analysis tools in a modular housing manufacturing facility (Ikuma et Al, 2011). It involved the analysis of current process, determined any proposed improvement and finally analyzed the process after being improved. The applied improvements resulted in an increase in value added of the activities and the crews overall output. Only low cost and quick changes were applied, which will not need much effort for their application.
2. CASE STUDY
The case study presented in this paper involves the construction of a green field cement plant producing 6000 ton per day in the industrial area near Beni Suef governorate, Egypt. The scope of the research is mainly the construction of silos used to store cement during its production. Normally, it is better to have more than one cement silo building to allow for reserve storage in case of maintenance. The paper involves the study of the construction of two nearby cement silos. The sequence of work in these two silos has been studied, analyzed, and wastes have been identified. An alternative method is, then, proposed, which significantly reduces the duration needed for the construction of these silos to meet the
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milestone of releasing the building for mechanical erection works. The proposed method has also saved money and released labors needed for other activities on site. This method has been applied on this case study in order to check its applicability and to evaluate its results.
2.1. Cement Silo Buildings Cement silos are cylindrical buildings with a diameter of 18.5 meters and a height of 70 meters (Figure 1). Cement silos consist of 2 slabs: an intermediate concrete slab which is 1.5 m thick and at 17.5 meters height resting on peripheral and internal walls; and a roof composite concrete slab which is 16 cm thick at the top of the silo resting on structural steel beams supported by the silo walls. The area between these two slabs is the area used for the storage of cement while the area under the intermediate slab is left for the mechanical equipment needed for bulk loading of the trucks and for conveying cement stored in silo to packing plant. As shown in Figure 2, there is a difference in cross section between stage 1 (walls under intermediate slab) and stage 2 (walls above intermediate slab), where stage 1 has outside circular walls of thickness 1m and internal walls of thickness 30cm, and stage 2 has only outside circular walls of thickness 34cm.
Figure 1: Sectional elevation of silo buildings
Figure 2: Walls Cross sections
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Silo walls are constructed using the slip-form method. It is a method used for building vertical structures of same cross section along their height. The slip-form consists of 1.25m high elements of steel shaping the plan needed for the constructed structure. Inner and outer steel forms are connected through a transverse steel structural system. This structural system supports three platforms: An upper one used for fixing vertical steel reinforcement and controlling concrete pouring, and a middle platform for fixing horizontal steel reinforcement and controlling other activities needed for concrete pouring (main deck), and finally a lower deck for concrete surface finishing. This entire system is resting on hydraulic jacks responsible for lifting the whole system on jacking tubes embedded in concrete and resting on concrete foundation. Construction using slip-form shuttering method involves working around the clock as slipform lifting is a continuous process which preferably does not stop for the sake of having better quality of constructed walls. Slip-form construction method achieves variable rates of production for silos varying from two to four meters height per day. This depends on several factors as reinforcement density, concrete mix design, amount of concrete poured per shift, temperatureetc. The construction process of silos using slip-form method needs several resources; specifically, concrete truck mixers, concrete pump, concrete vibrators, concrete bucket (1m3), hydraulic system(slip-form shuttering), tower crane, labors elevator and about Sixty labors varying from engineers, skilled labors, helpers, surveyors, etc. Special scaffolding is also needed for the intermediate slab due to its height and weight. The concrete pump is usually used for stage 1 of silo walls, and served by concrete truck mixers as in this stage, the pump, if well located, can reach all walls. As for the rest of the silo walls (stage 2), they are all cast using a tower crane and a concrete bucket. The tower crane is essential from the very beginning of silo walls activities; hence it must be ready once foundations are completed. As for the labors elevator, it is needed for stage 2 of silo walls because, in stage 1, the height allowed for an ordinary staircase tower to be used for the vertical transportation of manpower. For the intermediate slab a special type of scaffolding is used to be able to support heavy loads of the slab at that height. This scaffolding is most commonly rented, as it is very expensive for the contractor to own it due to its limited use. Concerning the slip-form shuttering hydraulic system, it is subcontracted to professional companies, which have good experience in such works.
2.2. Traditional Method for silo construction In the traditional method, the construction of two silos is a sequential process where the construction of the first silo building starts at first, and then the other one comes after in sequential order. As shown in Figure 3, silo 1 foundation starts in the beginning. Then, each activity in silo 1 foundation is considered a predecessor for the similar one in silo 2. For example, excavation works for silo 2 foundation starts after excavation works for silo 1 foundation. This makes the foundation of silo 1 ready before silo 2. Then slip-form
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shuttering is fixed on silo 1 foundation, and after being adjusted to stage 1 cross section, it starts lifting till finishing stage 1 of walls at the level of the bottom of the intermediate slab. Once this level is reached, a free lift is done and shutter is adjusted to the new cross section of stage 2 of silo walls and internal walls shuttering is removed (Figure 4 shows the difference of cross section and stages of construction). Then slip-form starts lifting till the end of silo height (stage 2). After finishing this stage, slip-form shuttering is released, and silo 1 building becomes ready for mechanical erection works needed inside the silo. Now work starts on silo 2 where slip-form shuttering is now reassembled on the foundation of silo 2 having the cross section of stage 1 of silo walls at this stage and silo 1 becomes ready for the works needed for the intermediate slab. Then, the same sequence of work for silo 1 walls applies for silo 2 walls. So, after finishing silo 2 walls, intermediate slab works will start, and finally silo 2 will be ready for the mechanical equipment installation inside silo 2. This traditional sequence of work typically consumes a total duration of 213 days (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Time schedule of the traditional method
Figure 4: Traditional method details
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2.3. Proposed Method for silo construction Lean Application Due to the nature of this project all parties were sharing the same objective which was to decrease the total project duration. So any new idea to attain such goal would be appreciated and studied well. During the construction of other silos on site, the contractor started to consider a new method of constructing the remaining silos to save time and cost. At this stage, Value Stream Mapping and Kaizen Tools were applied to the traditional method of silo construction in order to determine wastes and potential savings in the process. On the analysis of the sequence of work in both silos, explained above, some wastes were recognized, particularly the waiting time for silo 2 building till all slip-form activities in silo 1 are completed, while no activities are performed in silo 2 for an extended duration of 1.5 months after the completion of its foundation. Moreover, changing the cross section of the slip-form shutter several times was considered a waste of time and effort. The sequence of works in the traditional method has been modified to eliminate the above recognized wastes (Figure 5). After finishing stage 1 walls of silo 1, the slip-form shuttering is to be moved as it is, without any cross section adjustments to be used in stage 1 silo 2. Meanwhile, work is to continue for intermediate slab of silo 1 along with the silo 2 stage 1 walls. Once stage 1 in silo 2 is completed, a free lift is done to adjust the form for the new cross section and stage 2 of this silo is executed. The slip-form shuttering is then removed and shifted to silo 1 to accomplish stage 2 of the walls after finishing the intermediate slab. Finally, the intermediate slab works of silo 2 are completed (Figure 6). This new method decreased the total duration needed for both silos by 37 days to become 176 days instead of 213 days. On the other hand, the change in work sequence delays the release of the first silo for mechanical erection works by 7 days which is approved by the mechanical erection team.
Figure 5: Proposed method time schedul
Although this new method has many advantages, it still has some disadvantages. After finishing stage 1 in silo 1, the plan was to pour the intermediate slab. At the traditional method, the silo walls (stage 2) are considered the vertical shuttering for the sides of concrete slab as shown in Figure 4. However, after applying the lean solution, the
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intermediate slab will need side shuttering. Due to the presence of a construction joint between slab and walls, it was necessary to pour this part of silo wall traditionally and then proceed with the intermediate slab works. This method was found to be time and cost consuming. Kaizen tools were involved in this stage where a better way of constructing this part was needed to save time, cost and effort. Workflow has been simulated showing cost and time consumed, through the analysis of this simulation process and repeating the same simulation after having different proposals for the construction of this part. Another proposal recommends pouring intermediate slab and this part of silo wall together while adding steel sheets between silo wall and intermediate slab to form the construction joint between them (Figure 6.).
Figure 6: Details of intermediate slab pouring in the new method
2.4. Evaluation of Lean Implementation Through a profound analysis of the two methods, it is clear that the total duration for constructing both silos decreased from 213 days to 176 days when using the new method, which means saving 37 days from the total duration of the project. This duration is calculated from the start the silos excavation activities till the handing over of both silos with silo walls and intermediate slab ready for the mechanical team to start installation of the mechanical equipment inside them. As clear from the nature of the project, the start of any mechanical work inside any building is mainly dependant on the end of civil works inside this building. Consequently, saving any duration in the civil work activities would help in keeping the civil contractor away from delaying any of the milestones of handing over these building.
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Figure 7: Equipment Rental durations comparison
Also by analyzing the durations for rental of needed equipment, most of them have less duration of rent in the new method (Figure 7). For instance, the needed rental duration for the slip-form shuttering decreased by 17 days (from 135 days to 118 days) when using the proposed method. This also applies on the elevator rental duration where the total rental duration decreased by 35 days (from 95 days to 60 days), as well. Also the crane rental duration decreased by 44 days (from 176 days to 132 days). Similarly, the rental duration of the special shuttering needed for the intermediate slab decreased from 106 days to 87 days (18 days saving). When considering the amount of money resulting as consequence of decreasing these rental durations, it adds up to considerable amount of cost saving. As for the use of slip-form shuttering, the new method decreased the effort of changing the cross section of slip-form to be done once instead of three times, as the slip-form shuttering is going to be moved twice without the need to be re-fabricated according to the new crosssection. This does not only save effort, but it also saves re-fabrication time. As for the resources needed for the silos construction, the new method leveled these resources as they remain nearly constant during the construction process unlike the traditional method where large gaps were present between their needed intervals. It has also been proposed to apply other lean concepts including last planner system, increased visualization, daily huddle meetings, first run studies, 5S process and fail safe for quality. These concepts will help in removing a great portion of the uncertainty from the project; moreover it will replace optimistic planning with realistic planning, and furthermore, will improve the self-esteem of workers by helping them know how their efforts are seen and appreciated and how theyre important to the team output. These techniques are considered essential for this type of projects due to its nature as most of the cement plant construction
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projects involve the need of huge numbers of labors and equipment, which require continuous organization and management for better productivity and efficiency.
3. CONCLUSION
The analysis of the results of applying lean concepts to the silo buildings construction illustrates the power of Lean Construction tools and techniques when applied and supported by the management. It is also observed that the application of Lean Thinking has not changed the nature of the construction process as all activities are left the same but has only changed the sequence of these activities, since no new machinery or equipment are brought specially for this process. These accomplishments are mainly due to the concentration of management on the flow of works on site, and not only the availability of resources on site.
4. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Special thanks to Eng. Mohamed Moussa for his tremendous support and suggestions, and for Eng. Hassan Abdel-Ghany and Eng. Hamdy Awad for the valuable data.
REFERENCES
Arbulu, R., and Tommelein, I. _2002_. Value stream analysis of construction supply chains: Case study on pipe supports used in power plants. Proc., 10th Annual Conf. of Lean Construction, August 68, Gramado, Brazil, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Bicheno, John. 2004. The new lean toolbox: towards fast, flexible flow. [3rd ed.] ed. Buckingham: PICSIE Books Daouda Dao, Bernt H. Follestad, Efficient material delivery and site management; a lean construction perspective. Case study at statsbygg, masters degree thesis, Molde university college, 2009 Howell, G. _1999_. What is lean construction? Proc., Int. Group for Lean Construction 7th Annual Conf. (IGLC-7), IGLC, Berkeley, Calif., 110. Ikuma L., Nahmens I. and James J. Use of safety and lean integrated Kaizen to improve performance in modular Homebuilding. Journal of construction engineering and management ASCE, vol. 137, No. 7,july 1, 2011. p. 551560 Koskela, Lauri & Gregory A. Howell. 2002. The theory of project management problem and opportunity. Working paper. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland & Lean Construction Institute. Liker, Jeffrey K. 2004. The Toyota way : 14 management principles from the world's greatest manufacturer. New York ; London: McGraw-Hill. Liker, Jeffrey K., and David Meier. 2006. The Toyota way field book: a practical guide for implementing Toyota's 4Ps. London: McGraw-Hill. Zimmer, Eric R. 2006. Improving Lean Supply Chain Management in the Construction Industry, Department of Civil and Environment Engineering College of Engineering, University of Cincinnati.
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PSO-BASED ELMAN NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF AIR CHAMBER PRESSURE IN SLURRY SHIELD TUNNELING
Cheng Zhou School of Civil Engineering & Mechanics, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, China, charleschou@163.com Lieyun Ding School of Civil Engineering & Mechanics, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, China, dingly_wuhan@yahoo.com.cn Ran He School of Civil Engineering & Mechanics, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, China, heeryk1128@qq.com
Abstract The excavation face stability is crucial for safety and risk management in slurry shield tunneling, especially for the river-crossing tunnel. To avoid face collapse or blow-out, shield operators need to keep air chamber pressure balanced using their own experience, which would be difficult, discontinuous and less reliable in the process of construction. Considering the disadvantage of the manual control process, this paper presents a predictive control system for air chamber pressure in slurry shield tunneling using Elman neural network (ENN) model. The proposed control system takes into account not only advance speed, total thrust, cutter rotational speed, but also the flow rate of feed line and slurry line as control parameters. It mainly contains: 1) a theoretical model to calculate expected air chamber pressure at different locations of a given tunnel; 2)an ENN predictor with learning mechanism to develop predictive relations between air chamber pressure and control parameters; 3) an ENN controller to set optimal control parameters automatically to meet the desired air chamber pressure. Moreover, to improve the learning capability of ENN model, a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is implemented. This system has been tested with collected data of slurry shield operation parameters in the Yangtze river-crossing metro tunnel project in Wuhan, China. Analysis revealed that the predictive control system using PSO-based Elman neural network model in this paper have the potential for enhancing face stability in slurry shield tunneling. Keywords: air chamber pressure, Elman neutral network, Particle Swarm Optimization, predictive control system, slurry shield parameters.
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1. INTRODUCTION
In China, to deal with urbanization pressure such as land consolidation, traffic congestion and environment contamination, the massive speed and scale of metro networks in urban areas far exceed those anywhere else around the world. So far, most of metro tunnels in China have been designed and constructed by shield tunnel boring machine method, which is a method with high efficiency, environment harmlessness and good safety performance. Nowadays, restricted by underground conditions, the application of this method has been increased dramatically in metro tunnel construction, which takes about a quarter of the world market share. In slurry shield machine a bentonite suspension is used to support the unstable tunnel face during tunneling. The support pressure in the excavation chamber is not directly controlled by suspension pressure but by a compressible air cushion between the pressure bulkhead and the submerged wall. Generally speaking, precise air chamber pressure control during excavation enables sudden pressure irregularities in difficult heterogeneous geological conditions to be effectively equalized, which ensures that slight overburdens between the machine and the surface do not lead to unstable face including ground settlement or heaves. In other words, air chamber pressure control is critical for safety in the sections with different geological conditions, where excessive and sudden pressure irregularities are undesirable. For this reason, many researchers have attempted to study the face stability mechanism of slurry shield tunnels through the mechanics and numerical analytic method[1], especially in the river-crossing tunnels with mixed face. Mitsutaka Sugimoto developed a model of the theoretical dynamic load acting on the shield during excavation, taking into account shield tunnel engineering practices [2,3]. Thomas Kasper used a three-dimensional finite element simulation model and the numerical sensitivity analysis technique to study the face support pressure of shield tunneling[4]. Y. Li investigated the face stability of large slurry shielddriven tunnels by an upper bound approach in limit analysis and three-dimensional numerical modeling[5]. Although the mechanics and numerical analytic models can simulate the face failure process, they are based on theoretical hypothesis and accurate soil parameters which are hardly obtained in the complex process of shield tunneling. Thus, in recent years, more and more attention has been paid to the application of artificial neural network (ANN) in shield tunneling, focusing on the prediction of ground deformation caused by shield tunneling [68]. Suchatvee Suwansawat developed optimal neural network models for predicting surface settlements caused by earth pressure balanced (EPB) shield tunneling[9]. Rim Boubou proposed a methodology to correlate ground surface movements and tunnel boring machine operation parameters by neural network[10]. Another focus is the prediction of shield operation parameters during excavation [1114]. Bulent Tiryaki was concerned with the application of ANN for the prediction of cuttability of rocks from their intact properties[15]. A.G. Benardos presented an attempt to model the advance rate of tunneling with respect to the geological and geotechnical site conditions[11]. A majority of these models are generated based on the
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back-propagation neural network trained by the gradient descent method. Their dynamic characteristics are not good enough to make the models suitable for time-varying system modeling, especially for real-time control system. Meanwhile, ANN is also applied to intelligent control of excavation face pressure in shield tunneling [1618]. I-Cheng Yeh built a learning function system based on a back-propagation neural network to model the mechanism of soil pressure in the soil room of the shield[19]. Xuan-yu Liu proposed a predictive control strategy for earth pressure balance during excavation, where an earth pressure prediction model, taking advance speed and screw conveyor speed as control parameters, is established by means of least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM)[20]. However, these studies mostly focused on the EPB shield tunneling, and few studies engaged in controlling the slurry shield parameters to track the changing pressure under different geological and hydrological conditions during excavation. Moreover, the hypothesis of a constant slurry pressure is not applicable in the abovementioned studies. As a matter of fact, to avoid face collapse or blow-out, the slurry shield machine needs to create balance between the air chamber pressure and the expected excavation face pressure on the slurry surface, which is affected by the balance between the excavation volume and the difference volumes of feeding and discharging slurry. As a result, to balance the air chamber pressure with the desired one, the slurry shield operation parameters, such as the cutter head rate of rotation, total force, advance speed, bentonite level, flow rate of feed line and slurry line, should be controlled and adjusted dynamically and collaboratively. For this purpose, the shield operators often used their own experience to control and adjust the parameters, which would be difficult, discontinuous and less reliable in the process of construction. Additionally, there is a huge lack of skilled operators owing to the massive speed and scale of metro network construction in China. Therefore, large surface settlements or soil disturbance, even face collapse and blow-out accidents happened frequently in urban metro shield tunneling in recent years, which has caused unexpected economic losses. To overcome the deficiency of manual control, this paper develops a predictive control system based on Elman neural networks (ENN) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to automatically control the air chamber pressure in the slurry shield tunneling under changing environments. In the following sections, Section 2 presents a literature review of methods used in this study, such as predictive control system, Elman neural networks and PSO algorithm, and then Section 3 (then) explains the predictive control system for air chamber pressure in the slurry shield tunneling, which consists of a theoretical model, an ENN predictor and an ENN controller. Next, Section 4 is a case study of the system in Yangtze river-crossing metro tunnel of Wuhan Metro Line 2. Finally, in Section 5, conclusions and further research directions are proposed.
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2. METHOD OVERVIEW
2.1. Predictive control system Predictive control system (PCS) is considered to be a mature technique which makes explicit use of a model of the process to obtain the control signal by minimizing an objective function over a finite receding horizon[21]. In PCS the process model is used to predict the future plant outputs, based on past and current values and on the proposed optimal future control actions. These actions are calculated by the optimizer taking into account the cost function (where the future tracking error is considered) as well as the constraints. Therefore, as shown in Fig. 1, components of the predictive control system include[22]: Reference model. It is a stable mathematical model that generates the reference trajectory of the plant. Control model. It is used to generate control adjustment to make the output of the plant track the reference model. Prediction model. It is repeatedly used to predict the behavior of the plant for a period of time in the future.
Figure 1: A schematic of predictive control system
Predictive control system presents a general framework for control system implementation that accomplishes both feedback and feedforward control action in a dynamic system. PCS has gained wide acceptance in the nonlinear chemical and thermal processes. Meanwhile, it has also been utilized in the control of model helicopters, robots, insulin injection and manufacturing processes[23]. This success is due to the fact that predictive control system is perhaps the most general way of posing the control problem in the time domain with system dynamic knowledge[24]. For that reason, system input and output data as a type of dynamic knowledge were used to design the predictive control system using artificial neural networks (ANNs)[25].
2.2. Elman neural network As mentioned above, the predictive control system must have the ability of keep memory of recent events in order to predict future plant output and track the reference value. The ENN fits this purpose well. Elman recurrent network is a well-known recurrent topology,
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developed by Jeffrey Elman[26]. In a typical ENN, the hidden layer neurons are fed by the outputs of the context neurons and the input neurons. Context neurons are known as memory units as they store the previous output of hidden neurons[27]. This network structure makes the network more sensitive to the historical data, which increases its ability to deal with the dynamic information, as shown in Fig. 2. In addition, in ENN, there is no need to use state variable as the input or training signal and its dynamic characteristic is provided by its internal connection, which makes this network more suitable for timevarying system modeling. This is also an important factor which makes ENN superior to the feedforward neutral network, such as multi layer perceptions and radial basis function networks.
Figure 2: Architecture of the Elman recurrent network
But ENNs training algorithm is mainly based on the gradient descent method, this may give rise to a number of problems[28]: (1) the network convergence speed is slow, the training may induce a lower learning efficiency; (2) network structure and weights are not trained concurrently, thus a good performance of dynamic approximation cannot be guaranteed; (3) lack of the global search ability easily makes it get locked into a local minimum. To improve the dynamic performance of ENN, particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to train the network.
2.3. Particle swarm optimization algorithm J. Kennedy and R. Eberthart put forward a bionic optimization method named PSO in 1995[20]. It is an evolutionary computation technique based on swarm intelligence[28]. PSO is designed to search for the global best solution using a population (called swarm) of individuals (called particles) that are updated from iteration to iteration. Each particle represents a potential solution within the search space, which adjusts its position and velocity according to the best experience or position of itself (called local best) and the best experience or position ever found by all particles(called global best)[29].
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Assuming that N multi-dimensional space for the ith particle in the tth generation, the position and velocity of the ith particle can be denoted as X i , N (t ) and Vi , N ( t ) , respectively. The position and velocity of the ith particle for the next generation (t+1)th can be updated according to the following equation[30,31]:
Vi , N (t + 1) = (t + 1)Vi , N (t ) + c1r1 ( X pbest , N X i ,d (t )) + c2 r2 ( X gbest , N X i ,d (t ))
(1) (2)
X i , N (t + 1) = X i , N (t ) + Vi , N (t + 1)
where 1 i m , 1 t k , c1 and c2 are constants named acceleration coefficients, which are learning factors making the particles fly toward the local best position X pbest , N and the global best position X gbest , N ; r1 and r2 are two independent random numbers uniformly distributed in the range of [0, 1]; is inertia weight which controls the influence of previous velocity on the new velocity:
(t ) = (1) ( (1) (k ))t / k
(3)
Where (1) is the initial inertia weight; (k ) is the inertia weight when the swarm evolves to the maximum generation; k and t represent the maximum iterations and the current iterations respectively. As a type of simple and effective random search algorithm, PSO algorithm can get better results than the gradient descent method or genetic algorithm when solving some highly nonlinear optimization problems. Since the PSO algorithm has been found to be able to find the global optimum with a large probability and high convergence rate[30], it is adopted to train the ENN, which is called PSO- based ENN model in this study.
3. PREDICTIVE CONTROL SYSTEM FOR AIR CHAMBER PRESSURE

Two balance relationships have to be built during the shield tunneling: 1) the balance between the air chamber pressure and the unstable excavation face pressure on the slurry surface. This balance is determined by the conditions, the air chamber pressure, the bentonite level and the thrust, etc.; (2) the balance between the excavation volume and the volume difference of feed and discharge slurry. It is affected by the cutter rotation, the advance speed, the thrust and the flow rate of feed line and slurry line, etc.. Moreover, these two balance relationships interact with each other through the changing of the slurry volume in the slurry chamber, which is dynamic and complicated. As a result, it is greatly desirable that the air chamber pressure can be adjusted according to the changing geological and hydrological conditions and be relatively stable to keep the pressure in balance during the shield tunneling. For this purpose, the predictive control system is proposed based on Elman neural networks, in which the air chamber pressure during the construction of each segment
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ring is affected by appropriate shield parameters, such as the cutter head rate of rotation, total force, advance speed, bentonite level and flow rate of feed line and slurry line.
Figure 3: Block diagram of the predictive control system for air chamber pressure
As shown in Fig. 3, the predictive control system mainly consists of theoretical model, ENN predictor and ENN controller, which make up a closed loop control system. During the shield tunnel construction of each segment ring, the system collects control variables (CV) and air chamber pressure (AP) to establish the ENN predictor so as to imitate the behavior of the shield machine. The objective of the system is to minimize the difference value between the predicted earth pressure from the ENN predictor and the desired one from the theoretical model. With this objective represented by the fitness function, the PSO algorithm gives the optimal control variables which can make the predicted earth pressure meet the desired one based on the ENN predictor. Then, the ENN controller is established with the predicted earth pressure, the optimal control variables by PSO and the difference value mentioned above. Thus, the goal of the predictive control system is achieved.
3.1. Theoretical model for setting expected air chamber pressure In slurry shield tunnels, the slurry supports the wall of tunnel face in a way similar to diaphragm wall. The bentonite forms a filter cake on the tunnel face on which the slurry exerts its pressure. The face of a slurry shield tunnel boring machine is stabilized by bentonite slurry, and the stability of the tunnel face is kept under air chamber pressure. If the slurry pressure is too low, the tunnel face will become instable. This may result in large settlements. On the contrary, if the slurry pressure is too high, there will be an excessive loss of bentonite, which may lead to significant soil disturbance.
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Figure 4: Air chamber pressure in a slurry shield tunnel boring machine
To avoid face collapse or blow-out, the air chamber pressure needs to be balanced with the excavation face pressure, which is decided by the geological and hydrological conditions, as shown in Fig.4. According to Rankines theory, the expected air chamber pressure APe can be calculated by active and passive soil pressures. The theoretical model is as follows:
max APe = pwater + psoil + psafe = water H + K0 ( ( soil water ) h + soil ( H h ) ) + psafe
min APe = pwater + psoil + psafe = water H + K ( ( soil water ) h + soil ( H h ) ) 2c K + psafe
(4)
Where pwater is the water pressure; psoil is the earth pressure; psafe is an empirical value added to the air chamber pressure in case of air leak, which is generally between 10Kpa30Kpa;
water is the weight density of water (KN/m3); H is the height from the top of the water level
to the center of the cutter; K is the coefficient of active earth pressure; K0 is the coefficient of earth pressure at rest; soil is the weight density of soil (KN/m3); h is the height from the top of the soil level to the center of the cutter; c is the cohesion of soil layer (Kpa). After each segment has been assembled, the air chamber pressure needs to be reset before shield tunnel excavation of next ring. To provide adequate support pressure to the excavation face, the theoretical model, based on the survey results of the geological and hydrological conditions, outputs the desired air chamber pressure for the construction of each ring.
3.2. ENN predictor for air chamber pressure prediction The prediction model builds a learning mechanism based on Elman-PSO, using the past and present shield operation parameters to predict future air chamber pressure. As mentioned above, in the shield tunneling process, control variables affecting the air pressure are divided into two classes according to their different patterns of influence: 1) pressure balance control variables, which are the parameters in the last and current ring construction affecting the
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pressure balance control effect; 2) advance balance control variables, which are the parameters in the current ring construction affecting the advance balance control effect. The pressure balance control variables are as follows: 1) the last air chamber pressure AP(r 1) , 2) the current total force TF ( r ) , 3) the current bentonite level in slurry chamber
BL(r ) .
The advance balance control variables are as follows: 1) the current cutter head rate of rotation CR ( r ) , 2) the current advance speed AS ( r ) , 3) the current flow rate of feed line
FR ( r ) , 4) the current flow rate of slurry line SR ( r ) .

The ENN predictors output (predictive variable) is the air chamber pressure at current
AP(r ) , that is:
AP ( r ) = Elman ( AP ( r 1), TF ( r ), BL ( r ), CR ( r ), AS ( r ), FR ( r ), SR ( r ))
(5)
The ENN predictor predicts the air chamber pressure at current ring construction by Elman neural network and PSO optimization algorithm, its structure is shown in Fig. 3.
3.3. ENN controller for slurry shield parameters adjustment The control model builds an adjustment mechanism based on Elman-PSO, using the last shield operation parameters and current difference value between predicted earth pressure from the ENN predictor and the desired one from the theoretical model to adjust shield operation parameters at the current ring. Therefore, the input variables of the ENN controller are as follows: 1) the predictive air chamber pressure at the current ring AP(r ) , 2) the difference value between predicted earth pressure from the ENN predictor and the desired one from the theoretical model e AP ( r ) , 3) the last total force TF ( r 1) , 4) the last bentonite level in slurry chamber BL(r 1) , 5) the last cutter head rate of rotation CR ( r 1) , 6) the last advance speed AS ( r 1) , 7) the last flow rate of feed line FR ( r 1) , 8) the last flow rate of slurry line SR ( r 1) .The output variables of the ENN controller are the adjusted control variables affecting air pressure at the current ring, that is:
(TF(r), BL(r), CR(r), AS(r), FR(r), SR(r)) = Elman( AP(r), eAP (r),TF(r 1), BL(r 1), CR(r 1), AS(r 1), FR(r 1), SR(r 1)) (6)
The ENN controller adjusts the control variables at current ring construction by Elman neural network and PSO optimization algorithm, its structure is shown in Fig. 3. To establish the ENN controller, the training data can be obtained from solving the optimization function based on the ENN predictor:
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i =6 2 min ( AP ( r ) APe ( r )) 2 + ( CVi (r ) CVi (r 1) ) i =1 s.t.min CVi ( r ) CVi (r ) max CVi (r )
(7)
where CVi (r ) is the value of the ith control variable at current ring; CVi (r 1) is the value of the Ith control variable at last ring; min CVi (r) and max CVi (r) are respectively the maximum and minimum value of the ith control variable at current ring; and are the weights of the control goals. To solve the optimization function above, the PSO algorithm is employed to modulate all the control variables so that the air chamber pressure can keep consistent with the desired one from the theoretical model. Meanwhile, the changes of all the control variables are restricted to the minimum.
4. CASE STUDY: YANGTZE RIVER-CROSSING METRO TUNNEL PROJECT

4.1. Project introduction Wuhan Metro Line 2 is the first metro line with twin tunnels crossing the Yangtze River in China. The section of Wuhan Metro Line 2 between Ji Yuqiao station and Jiang Han Road station excavated by the slurry shield machine is 3100 m. The total length of the single metro tunnel constructed in the Yangtze riverbed is 1620m, as shown in Fig. 5.
Figure 5: Overview of the Yangtze river-crossing metro tunnel
The Yangtze-river-crossing twin tunnels of Wuhan Metro Line 2 are surrounded by difficult geological and hydrological conditions. The topographic map and the lineation of the twin tunnels are analyzed in Fig. 6. The complex grounds such as soft clay, squeezing rock and mixed face, lead to unstable excavation performance. Moreover, the average Yangtze River water level is 18.97 m from the riverbed, and the maximum water level in flooding during 300 years is predicted to be 29.73 m. The average water pressure acting on the top of the tunnel is predicted to be 3.9 Bar. The high water pressure is estimated to be 4.9 Bar in
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flooding during 300 years. The stability of the excavation face of the tunnel during construction can be affected by (the) high water pressure.
Figure 6: Topography of the Yangtze-river-crossing metro tunnel
The slurry shield machine was provided by German firm Herrenknecht, as shown in Fig. 7(a).The excavation diameter is 6.52 m, where the external and internal diameters are 6.2 m and 5.5 m, respectively. Facing the high permeability and groundwater pressure, a bentonite suspension is pumped to the tunnel face from the start shaft by feed pumps using the shield machine's feed line, which stabilizes and supports the tunnel face and is mixed with the excavated material[20]. Then, the mixture of soil and bentonite suspension is exhausted out of the excavation chamber through the slurry line and conveyed to the slurry separation plant , as shown in Fig. 7(b), (c). In this project, the maximum flow rate of the feed line is 800m3/h while the maximum flow rate of the slurry line is 900m3/h. The width of segment is 1.5 m, and the compressive strength of concrete is 50 MPa. A total number of 28 inclined bolts are used in each ring, as shown in Fig. 7(d).
Figure 7: Construction site of the Yangtze-river-crossing metro tunnel: (a) the slurry shield machine, (b) bentonite suspension production plant, (c) slurry separation plant, (d) tunnel structure.
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4.2. Analysis of slurry shield parameters from the construction site The purpose of measurement in the operation of the slurry shield machine is to assess the head geological conditions, to enhance the excavation performance, and to stabilize the tunnel face. The total thrust (KN) and torque (KNm) are the most basic criteria for judging the hardness of the head ground[32]. Meanwhile, the cutter head rate of rotation (rpm) and the advance speed (mm/min) represent the excavation efficiency. In contrast, the inflow and outflow (m3/h) of the bentonite suspension pumped round the circuit affect more directly the air chamber pressure (Bar) and bentonite level (m) in the earth chamber. In this study, to establish the predictive model of air chamber pressure, all the measurement data of slurry shield parameters were collected continuously by an automatic measurement system, and the sampling period was 2 seconds. To get training and testing data with high diversity, the section used for analysis needs to be geologically representative. For this reason, the section of the left tunnel (12km + 980.2m ~ 13km + 730.2m) was analyzed, which is located in a mixed condition with fine sand, gravelly sand and soft rock. This section is between 2# crossing passage and 3# crossing passage, namely segment ring 750 to ring 1250, as shown in Fig. 6. To enhance the analysis efficiency, the collected measurement data of the slurry shield parameters were averaged during each segment ring construction. Then the 500 sets of average values were taken for further analysis and modeling. Additionally, the left tunnel always keeps 200300 meters before the right tunnel during the construction phase, which can be used as training tunnel for the predictive control system. Fig. 8(a) shows the measurement values and calculation values of air chamber pressure during the excavation from segment ring 750 to ring 1250. The measurement values and calculation values are compared in each segment ring. The pattern of the calculated (desired) air chamber pressure shows that the pressure to support excavation varies remarkably with the advance of excavation, which results from the changing of the ground conditions. Obviously, the measurement value of the air chamber pressure is lower than its calculated value. However, interestingly, the shapes of the two curves keep identical generally and the changes of the measurement value always lag behind those of the calculated value. This illustrates that manual air chamber pressure control, though available, is seriously time-lag, unstable and rough under such geological conditions as huge unexpected pressure irregularities. This section also presents measured data of rate of rotation, total force (thrust), cutter head torque, advance speed, bentonite level, and flow rate of feed line and slurry line. To analyze the relationship between these slurry shield parameters and the air chamber pressure measurements, all the measured values are standardized. Figure 8(b)(h) illustrates the correlations between them within 500 rings data are highly nonlinear and complicated.
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Figure 8: Analysis of average values of slurry shield parameters during construction of the left tunnel from segment ring 750 to ring 1250: (a) the air chamber pressure measurement values and desired values, (b) rotation vs. air chamber pressure, (c) torque vs. air chamber pressure, (d) total force vs. air chamber pressure, (e) speed vs. air chamber pressure, (f) feed line flow vs. air chamber pressure, (g) slurry line flow vs. air chamber pressure, (h) bentonite level vs. air chamber pressure.
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4.3.Modeling and result analysis of the ENN predictor To establish an Elman neural network that can be used for predicting the air chamber pressure, training and testing data sets need to be used to train and test the ENN. Firstly, the ENN predictor is established according to Eq. (5). To determine the most appropriate number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural networks, the PSO algorithm is employed. To choose better parameters for the PSO algorithm in Eq. (1)(3), we have carried out many experiments randomly. By performing this process, the network that yields the best agreement in the validation will be selected as the optimal neural network. To evaluate the performance of the models, the relative error mean value (%) is used for comparison.
Figure 9: ENN prediction effect: a) performance of ENN predictor on trained and tested data, b) the relative error mean value of different ENN structures.
As seen in Fig. 9, 350 data are selected as the training set from the left tunnel segment ring 751 to ring 1100, and 150 data as the testing set from the left tunnel segment ring 1101 to ring 1250. First, the network was trained with the training set data. The PSO algorithm selected the network with 20 neurons in the hidden layer as the optimal ENN structure. The result of the training shows that the output of ENN predictor can closely fit the measured data. As shown in Fig.9 (a), the relative error mean value is 0.82%, and the maximum relative error value is 12.51%. The result of the validation samples shows that the relative error mean value is 0.55%, and the maximum relative error value is 5.74%. In addition, we can see from Fig.9 (b) that the relative error mean value of the ENN structure with 20 neurons in the hidden layer is lower than that of other ENN structures, which is identical with the PSO algorithm selection. Overall training and testing results are consistent with the measured data, which demonstrates that the ENN predictor has higher forecast accuracy.
4.4. Modeling and result analysis of the ENN controller The ENN controller will be established to adjust the control variables based on the simulation data obtained from solving the optimization function according to Eq. (6) and (7). Moreover,
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to establish an Elman neural network that can be used for adjusting the control variables, the training and testing data sets need to be prepared respectively. Firstly, the section in the riverbed from the left tunnel ring 751 to 1250 was taken as the control objective, and the theoretical model for air chamber pressure is determined by Eq. (4). Then, the PSO algorithm was employed to search the optimal values of control variables, which was to be used as input variables of the ENN predictor to make the predictive air chamber pressure consistent with the desired one. This optimization problem is also subject to the minimum changing of the control variables. In Eq. (7), the former is dominant while the later is subordinate, so the weights are set as = 1 and = 0.2 . Finally, the PSO algorithm parameters in Eq. (1)(3) are determined as follows: N praticle = 20 , C1 = C 2 = 2 ,
= 0.9 , t max = k = 300 . In order to enhance the learning capability of the ENN controller,
the difference value between predicted earth pressure from the ENN predictor and the desired one from the theoretical model e AP ( r ) is enlarged by :
2 AP ( r ) AP ( r ) , if AP ( r ) AP ( r ) e AP ( r ) = 2 AP ( r ) AP ( r ) , if AP ( r ) < AP ( r )
(8)
There are 500 sets of the optimal control variables data searched through the PSO algorithm based on the desired air chamber pressure from the left tunnel ring 751 to 1250. As (it can be) seen in Table 1, 450 data were selected as the training set and 50 data as the testing set. Similar to the process of the ENN predictor modeling, the network that yields the best agreement in the validation will be selected as the optimal neural network. To evaluate the performance of the models, the root mean square error (RMSE) was used for comparison. The PSO algorithm selects the network with 19 neurons in the hidden layer as the optimal ENN structure. In this model, the RMSE of training control variables are mostly lower than those in other models. The result of the validation samples shows that the RMSE is also lower than that in other models, which is identical with the PSO algorithm selection. In addition, it is found that the RMSE of the total force is the highest and the RMSE of the cutter rotation and bentonite level is the lowest, which is due to the different quantity of each control variable. Furthermore, overall training and testing results are in agreement with the measured data, which demonstrates that the ENN controller has higher accuracy. The result of the training and testing shows that the output of the ENN controller can closely fit the data obtained from the optimization function to achieve the control goal.
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Table 1: Performance of ENN controller on trained and tested data
4.5. Simulation of the predictive control system for air chamber pressure After establishing the ENN predictor and controller, the simulation experiment will be implemented to test the validity of the predictive control system for air chamber pressure. Firstly, the ENN predictor is employedas behavior plant of the slurry shield machine, which can describe the relationship between the air chamber pressure and control variables during shield tunneling. Then, take the ENN controller to gain the adjustment of control variables through automatically comparing the predictive air chamber pressure and desired one from the theoretical model continuously. Because the training and testing data for the ENN predictor and controller were obtained from the left tunnel ring 751 to 1250, the predictive control system is used in the same section of the right tunnel for validating independently, which is similar to the left tunnel in the geological and hydrological conditions but keeps 200300 meters behind the left tunnel. The control effect of the predictive control system is shown in Fig. 10. The output of the ENN controller fits the desired air chamber pressure well: the relative error mean value is 1.01%, and the maximum relative error value is 6.46%. Moreover, the system output is consistent with the desired air chamber pressure. It illustrates that the automatic air chamber pressure control by the predictive control system based on ENN-PSO, is effective, robust and precise, even under such geological conditions as huge unexpected pressure irregularities. In the right tunnel excavation, the control variables are adjusted manually according to the optimal control adjustment provided by the predictive control system. In contrast to the left tunnel, the relative error mean value is reduced from 14.36% to 1.95%, and the maximum relative error value is reduced from 23.09% to 6.73%. Obviously, it can be seen from Fig.10 that the manual control effect under the supervision of the predictive control system (the measured air chamber pressure) is improved in the right tunnel compared with that in the left tunnel, but is not so good as the automatic control effect of the predictive control system. The reason is that the control effect may be affected by the disturbance in the real slurry machine, such as malfunction, which is not considered in the predictive control system. It can be concluded that analysis results reveal that the predictive control system using PSO-
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based Elman neural network model in this paper have the potential for enhancing face stability in slurry shield tunneling.
Figure 10: Control effect of the predictive control system for air chamber pressure
5. CONCLUSIONS
According to the results obtained from this research, it can be concluded that the predictive control system is a useful technique to make the air chamber pressure keep consistent with the desired one. In this study, the predictive control system mainly consists of the theoretical model, ENN predictor and ENN controller. An Elman neural network with six inputs and one output, named as ENN predictor, was established and used for prediction of the air chamber pressure, and the optimal ENN predictor architecture has been found to have 20 neurons in the hidden layers. Similarly, an Elman neural network with eight inputs and six outputs, named as ENN controller, was established and used for adjusting the control variables for air chamber pressure, and the optimal ENN controller architecture has been found to have 19 neurons in the hidden layers. In this research the data from the Yangtze-river-crossing metro tunnel project provided an excellent opportunity to train and valid the control effect of the predictive control system. In order to train the ENN predictor and controller, PSO was used to solve the optimization problem. The result of the training and testing shows that the outputs of ENN predictor and controller have a good level of accuracy respectively. Meanwhile, the control effect of the right tunnel by the predictive control system is reasonably better than that of the left tunnel by manual control. As a result, this system can be used to control the air chamber pressure for enhancing face stability in slurry shield tunneling.
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The desired air chamber pressure is a reference trajectory in the predictive control system, and the control effect, especially stability of the excavation face, relies on the calculation accuracy of the theoretical model. Therefore, how to ensure and improve the accuracy of the desired air chamber pressure under uncertain geological and hydrological conditions can be studied in further research. Moreover, the control process is a time dependent phenomenon, another study area, i.e. online training and adjustment of ENN structures, could be taken into consideration to improve the control effect of the predictive control system for air chamber pressure in slurry shield tunneling.
REFERENCES
K. Zhang, H. Yu, Z. Liu, X. Lai, Dynamic characteristic analysis of TBM tunnelling in mixed-face conditions, Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory 18 (7) (2010) 10191031. M. Sugimoto, A. Sramoon, Theoretical model of shield behavior during excavation. I: Theory, Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering 128 (2) (2002) 138155. A. Sramoon, M. Sugimoto, K. Kayukawa, Theoretical model of shield behavior during excavation. II: Application, Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering 128 (2) (2002) 156165. T. Kasper, G. Meschke, On the influence of face pressure, grouting pressure and TBM design in soft ground tunnelling, Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 21 (2) (2006) 160171. Y. Li, F. Emeriault, R. Kastner, Z.X. Zhang, Stability analysis of large slurry shield-driven tunnel in soft clay, Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 24 (4) (2009) 472481. S. Yagiz, H. Karahan, Prediction of hard rock TBM penetration rate using particle swarm optimization, International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences 48 (3) (2011) 427433. S. Mahdevari, S.R. Torabi, Prediction of tunnel convergence using Artificial Neural Networks, Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 28 (0) (2012) 218228. O.J. Santos Jr, T.B. Celestino, Artificial neural networks analysis of Sao Paulo subway tunnel settlement data, Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 23 (5) (2008) 481491. S. Suwansawat, H.H. Einstein, Artificial neural networks for predicting the maximum surface settlement caused by EPB shield tunneling, Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 21 (2) (2006) 133150. R. Boubou, F. Emeriault, R. Kastner, Artificial neural network application for the prediction of ground surface movements induced by shield tunnelling, Canadian Geotechnical Journal 47 (11) (2010) 12141233. A.G. Benardos, D.C. Kaliampakos, Modelling TBM performance with artificial neural networks, Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 19 (6) (2004) 597605. G. Javad, T. Narges, Application of artificial neural networks to the prediction of tunnel boring machine penetration rate, Mining Science and Technology (China) 20 (5) (2010) 727733. M. Alvarez Grima, P.A. Bruines, P.N.W. Verhoef, Modeling tunnel boring machine performance by neuro-fuzzy methods, Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 15 (3) (2000) 259269. S.-C. Lau, M. Lu, S.T. Ariaratnam, Applying radial basis function neural networks to estimate next-cycle production rates in tunnelling construction, Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 25 (4) (2010) 357365. T. Bulent, Application of artificial neural networks for predicting the cuttability of rocks by drag tools, Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 23 (3) (2008) 273280. Y. Huayong, S. Hu, G. Guofang, H. Guoliang, Electro-hydraulic proportional control of thrust system for shield tunneling machine, Automation in Construction 18 (7) (2009) 950956.
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary H.Y. Yang, H. Shi, G.F. Gong, G.L. Hu, Earth pressure balance control for EPB shield, Science in China Series ETechnological Sciences 52 (10) (2009) 28402848. Q. Zhang, C. Qu, Y. Kang, G. Huang, Z. Cai, Y. Zhao, H. Zhao, P. Su, Identification and optimization of energy consumption by shield tunnel machines using a combined mechanical and regression analysis, Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 28 (0) (2012) 350354. Y. I-Cheng, Application of neural networks to automatic soil pressure balance control for shield tunneling, Automation in Construction 5 (5) (1997) 421426. X. Liu, C. Shao, H. Ma, R. Liu, Optimal earth pressure balance control for shield tunneling based on LS-SVM and PSO, Automation in Construction 20 (4) (2011) 321327. E.F. Camacho, D.R. Ramirez, D. Limon, Model predictive control techniques for hybrid systems, Annual Reviews in Control 34 (1) (2010) 2131. W. Wang, D.E. Rivera, K.G. Kempf, Model predictive control strategies for supply chain management in semiconductor manufacturing, International Journal of Production Economics 107 (1) (2007) 5677. J.H. Lee, Model Predictive Control: Review of the Three Decades of Development, International Journal of Control Automation and Systems 9 (3) (2011) 415424. D.S. Carrasco, G.C. Goodwin, Feedforward model predictive control, Annual Reviews in Control 35 (2) (2011) 199 206. M. Mohammadzaheri, L. Chen, S. Grainger, A critical review of the most popular types of neuro control, Asian Journal of Control 14 (1) (2012) 111. X. Tong, Z. Wang, H. Yu, A research using hybrid RBF/Elman neural networks for intrusion detection system secure model, Computer Physics Communications 180 (10) (2009) 17951801. S.-Y. Chen, F.-J. Lin, K.-K. Shyu, Direct decentralized neural control for nonlinear MIMO magnetic levitation system, Neurocomputing 72 (13 ?5) (2009) 32203230. H.-W. Ge, F. Qian, Y.-C. Liang, W.-l. Du, L. Wang, Identification and control of nonlinear systems by a dissimilation particle swarm optimization-based Elman neural network, Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications 9 (4) (2008) 13451360. H. Zhang, X. Li, H. Li, F. Huang, Particle swarm optimization-based schemes for resource-constrained project scheduling, Automation in Construction 14 (3) (2005) 393404. J.-H. Chen, L.-R. Yang, M.-C. Su, Comparison of SOM-based optimization and particle swarm optimization for minimizing the construction time of a secant pile wall, Automation in Construction 18 (6) (2009) 844848. M. Lu, H.-C. Lam, F. Dai, Resource-constrained critical path analysis based on discrete event simulation and particle swarm optimization, Automation in Construction 17 (6) (2008) 670681. H.-S. Jung, J.-M. Choi, B.-S. Chun, J.-S. Park, Y.-J. Lee, Causes of reduction in shield TBM performance: A case study in Seoul, Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 26 (3) (2011) 453461.
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PARAMETERS OF PERCEPTIBILITY OF RISKS IN REAL ESTATE AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

Josef Zimmermann Technische Universitt Mnchen, Lehrstuhl fr Bauprozessmanagement und Immobilienentwicklung, Germany, lbi@bv.tum.de Wolfgang Eber Technische Universitt Mnchen, Lehrstuhl fr Bauprozessmanagement und Immobilienentwicklung, Germany, lbi@bv.tum.de
Abstract Risk management has become a major keyword nowadays, especially as complex projects in construction management and in Real Estate development are inherently adopting large risks in terms of likelihood as well as high economic damage to be taken into account. Yet, this proceeding leads to inevitably large surcharges on an offer which is likely not to work out on a tight market. Therefore the method of operating risks on the basis of perceptibility and controllability has been elaborated in the past years. Matters of controllability based on the classical theory of control have meanwhile been well established. Yet, these methods lack appropriate descriptions of perceptibility of risks during the course of a complex project and its ahead phase. In this paper we propose and introduce a fundamental approach to understanding and describing the development of risks predictability in complex projects. The model comprises the developing company represented by its project team in interaction with the project as a network subjected to a number of risk issues and the project environment providing the unpredictable variables. Based on theory of systems the parameters of risk awareness are modeled on the skills of the team and are used to determine the development of risk knowledge depending on the intensity of observation. The course turns out to basically follow an extended Bernoulli type differential equation. Finally risk manifestation describes the actual occurrence of risks and their behavior given by the environment under surveillance and control of the risk management. Based on this, the core competence of risk management of a company becomes approachable to fundamental parameters which can be measured, evaluated, developed and controlled by means of classical quality assurance systems. From such an approach we therefore expect some notable progress of the quality of cost and time schedules even on projects that are subjected to most relevant risky issues.
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Keywords: factors of success, project management, risk evaluation, strategic planning, system complexity and connectivity.
1. INTRODUCTION
Real Estate Development and Construction Management are mainly dominated by very professionally dealing with risks [e.g. Henn/Knzi 1968, Jureka/Zimmermann, 1972, Hillier/Liebermann 1997]. Many crucial parameters are not foreseeable and yet are considered the footing for major decisions. Since projects are singular and nonrecurring [Schelle et al 2005, Lewis 2002] the traditional approach which tackles risk as the possible hazard weighted with the probability of its occurrence [Wiest/Levy 1977, Sackmann 2003] does never hold, as average surcharges of any value never cover the single case. High additional fees are not supported by the markets and even the case of an occurring risk remains the uncovered worst case. Nevertheless, the course of a project needs to be predicted very accurately when submitting a binding tender although over the time situation and parameters may change. In order to keep the volatility low and the result within a predictable small corridor the method of operating risks on the basis of perceptibility and controllability has been elaborated in the past years. Controllability is based on classical control theory [e.g. Schulz 1995, Kerzner 2003] and provides means to measure the systems stability and predict reactions to variation of parameters and the more describes the required effort in terms of financial reserve, time slack and intervention force to lead even complex systems back to the scheduled plan. Yet controllability foots on establishing appropriate control mechanisms at the critical points of a system if not everywhere [e.g. Schulte-Zurhausen 2002]. Thus a major precondition to controlling is understanding and the more knowing the system in all its details. In particular unknown parameters need to be identified first before means of stabilization can be developed. Unrecognized risks may remain hidden if they dont occur but if they turn up no counteraction is available. Perceptibility of risks during the phase of tendering as well as later on while the process of the project is going on therefore becomes the crucial element of risk management. This in particular because the tight schedule for construction and Real Estate projects allows usually for no consolidation of design prior to initiating the execution processes [e.g. Mller-Merbach 1971, Domschke/Drexl 2006]. Since the important field of risk management is still lacking an appropriate description besides very plain tools like Risk-Checklists, Risk-Maps and Risk-Structures [e.g. Schieg 2006], we propose an approach of parameterizing the development of knowledge on an abstracted project.
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2. MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF RISK ISSUES

2.1. Risk Management based on Knowledge and Perceptibility Referring to [Zimmermann/Eber 2008] risk management is mainly based on appropriate knowledge of risk and the implementation of respective activities in order to control the outcome and keep it actively within a small corridor of acceptance [e.g. Haken 1983, Wiener 1992, Vester 1995, Malik 2003/2008, Picot et al 2008,]. The latter comes off the parameter of controllability of a risk where however the major precondition to control is the knowledge of all risky issues and their characteristics. [Zimmermann/Eber 2009/2010/2011]. Risk though is nothing else than details be it elements or interaction of elements of a project that are not entirely known. In order to deal with risks they need to be identified at least as a fact before means of control can be established and applied. Thus in general the knowledge of a project to the last detail over the time needs to be understood in terms of observable variables in order to model the secured development of a unique project. Parameters for this characteristic timing are e.g. the effort used for elaboration of knowledge, the complexity of a project, skills of the project team and last not least the willingness to observe.
2.2. Model of Knowledge All investigation of development of knowledge starts with modeling knowledge itself. Based on theory of systems we assume full knowledge of a project of any kind as a system of n primitive elements each holding a singular variable interconnected by a number m of interactions. As pointed out in previous publications [Zimmermann/Eber 2012], the relation between n and m can easily be expressed in terms of the parameter of complexity [0..1] using:
m = n1+
(1)
This implies the parameter as the fraction of the maximum dimensionality of a space where each element is considered a volume element interacting to all adjacent neighbors. Thus = 0 represents the trivial system of independent elements where all information is bound to the elements themselves. On the other hand the most complex system can be modeled by = 1 where each element is connected to every other element leading to a number of n 2 information units. In this context a linear chain of length n is described by = ln 2 / ln n . Thus, partial knowledge of a certain degree at time t can be defined as the ratio f (t ) of known issues to the number of virtually existing issues. These could comprise basic system elements or interactions or both as well. No knowledge at all as is valid for the very beginning of a project refers to f (t ) = 0 while the attainment of the full knowledge at a very late point of time is given by f (t ) = 1 .
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2.3. Perceptibility and Development of Knowledge Knowledge starting from zero and reaching a value of unity at some time can only be gained by perceptibility f (t ) / t which is achieved by the active use of resources to the project. Furthermore as knowledge cannot be generated from thin air we assume the dependency on already existing knowledge at time t . This situation turns out to be described by a differential equation. First of all we state proportionality of the perceptibility as the velocity of deriving new facts to the already existing and well known facts. This implies that the more is known, the faster new knowledge can be generated. The factor of this mechanism is taken to be 1 .
f (t ) f (t ) t
(2)
Secondly we assume that finding the last facts out of a pool of hidden information becomes more difficult as the pool empties more and more. This is on trying out new ideas most of the considered issues turn out to have been already treated and are laid aside. Thus another proportionality of the perceptibility to the value of the remaining hidden knowledge arises, making use of a factor 2 :
f (t ) 1 f (t ) t
(3)
Combined we obtain the well known Bernoulli differential equation [Gaede 1976, Bronstein 1979] with a typical exponent of 2 respectively the Logistic differential equation as a description of the development of knowledge over the time:
f (t ) = 1 f (t )2 (1 f (t ) ) t
(4)
As the factors of proportionality 1 and 2 are obviously exchangeable, the two mechanisms cannot be distinguished and the factor merges to = 1 2 . Subsequently is to be interpreted as the rate of investing resources to perception of knowledge being held constant over the course of the project. In order to solve the differential equation we substitute z = 1 / f in order to obtain an inhomogeneous linear differential equation z ' = z + which is tackled by variation of the constants.
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The homogeneous solution on the boundary condition z (t0 = 0) = z0 = 0 is gained using the method of separating the variables as z = z0e
( t t0 )
+ C while the inhomogeneous solution

( t t0 )
provides by varying the constant z0 z0 (t ) the particular solution z = 1 e From this the general solution comes to be
z gen = z part + zhom = 1 e
( t t0 )
+C
(5)
Finally undoing the primary substitution we obtain as expected for a limited exponential growth function the development of knowledge:
f (t ) =
e (t t0 ) e
( t t0 )
+ C 1
Q ( t t0 ) where Q = e and r = C 1 Q+r
(6)
2.4. Characteristics of the Advancement in Time The resulting function (Fig. 1) follows the expected course from a slow start via some very intense development of knowledge to a time consuming approach to the full knowledge of unity.
Figure 1: Development of normalized Knowledge
Typical parameters can be taken from further discussion of characteristics: The velocity of increase of knowledge is of specific interest and given by the differential equation itself. The first derivative yields the time tz of maximum speed, while the second derivative leads to the range of time where the development takes place. Thus we obtain:
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Creative Construction Conference 2012 est, Hungary June 30 July 3, 2012, Budape
2 2 f (t ) f (t ) Qr 2 Q + Qr and = r = 3 2 t 2 t (Q + r ) (Q + r )
(7,8)
0=
2 f (t z ) ln r = k ( Q(t z ) 2 + Q(t z )r ) r = Q(t z ) t z = + t0 2 t z
(9)
At this point of time tz we w obtain a normalized knowledge of f (t z ) =
e e
( t z t0 )
( tz t0 )
+r
1 2
(10)
and a maximum speed of o (Fig. 2)
f (t z ) Q(t z )r re ( z 0 ) = = 2 t t t ( Q(tz ) + r ) e ( z 0) + r
t t
(11)
Figure 2: Development of normalized Perception
The inflection points def fine the range of time, where knowledge is mainly developed:
2Q 2 ( Q + r ) + Qr ( Q + r ) ( Q 2 + Qr ) 3 ( Q + r ) Q ! 3 f (t ) 2 =0 = r 6 t 3 (Q + r )
3 3 2
(11)
Q1,2 = 2 3 r t1/2 =
ln 2 3 r + t0
(12)
Therefore the inflection points relative to the center tz come to be
t1/2 /2 =
ln 2 3 +
ln r + t0 =
ln 2 3 + t z
(13)
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In terms of this is t1/ 2 t z
1.317
and the range is t 2
1.317
2.63
(14)
The knowledge reaches at the first point about 21%, at the second point about 79% of the total knowledge:
f (t1/2 ) =
e e
( t1/2 t0 )
( t1/2 t0 )
+r
0, 2113 (2 3) = (2 3) + 1 0, 7889
(15)
The speed of development with respect to the maximum speed comes to be in either case:
0, 2113 (1 0, 2113) = 0,166 f (t1/2 ) = f (t1/2 ) (1 f (t1/2 ) ) = = 66% 4 t 0, 7889 (1 0, 7889 ) = 0,166
(16)
Furthermore we find by substituting to f (t ) the solution to be symmetrical with respect to
tz and f (t z ) = 1/ 2 :
f (t z ) f (t z t ') = f (t z ) + f (t z + t ') t '
(17)
2.5. Boundary Considerations The development of knowledge at the very beginning is characterized by a somewhat reduced set of parameters. First of all we deduce the given boundary condition:
f (t0 ) =
e e
( t0 t0 )
( t0 t0 )
1 1 = = f0 + C 1 1 + C 1 C =
(18)
This implies a point of time t0 , where the knowledge is not zero but reaches a value of f 0 due to the fact, that zero knowledge is given only at times t = . Thus at least some basic knowledge is needed to start the process of development modeling reality appropriately. Therefore the actual start is represented by a step f = 0 f = f 0 . After this, the progress is defined by the first part of the differential equation df (t ) = f (t ) dt since (1 f (t ) ) 1 at low values of t . The solution is given by the approach
( t t0 )
flow (t ) = Ae
and
f 'low (t ) = Ae
( t t0 )
= flow and indicates an exponential rise as expected defined by the
time constant and the border condition f (t0 ) = C 1 = f 0 as (see Fig. 3)
flow (t ) = C 1e
( t t0 )
(19)
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The final development at the end of the course can be derived in a similar way: The relevant part of the differential equation comes to be df (t ) = (1 f (t ))dt since f (t ) 1 at high values of t . A similar approach is suggested for this range: f high (t ) = 1 Be
t t to: f 'high (t ) = + Be ( 0 ) = 1 f high .
( t t0 )
and leads
Since f (t ) is symmetrical with respect to f (t z ) = 1/ 2 we can make use of the mentioned boundary condition transformed to the high
( t t0 )
end
of
the
knowledge,
( 2 ( t z t0 ) )
i.e.
f (t z + ( t z t0 )) = 1 f 0 . With f high (t ) = 1 Be t z = ln ( r ) / + t0 we obtain further B = f 0 e
this leads to B = f 0e
. With
( 2 t z 2 t0 )
= f 0 r 2 and therefore (see Fig.3):

( t t0 )
f high (t ) = 1 ( r 2 / 2 ) e
(20)
Figure 3: Short and long-term approximation
The symmetry of the system in particular indicates no significant difference of the final development to the initial course. Therefore preconditioned no decrease of the investigation efforts, all unknown elements will be discovered over the time. There are no principally hidden aspects which cannot be found. Such behavior is based on the model of knowledge where no insulated spots are assumed but all elements are expected to be interconnected equally. Even if a factor of imperfection is introduced, which models incomplete perceptibility, only the rate of identification of elements is decreased which leads to a somewhat higher time constant .
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3. INTERACTION OF RISK ISSUES

3.1. Introducing Interactions The basic model described in the previous sections focuses on plain elements interconnected by relationships that help identifying the element if a certain pool of knowledge-elements is already known. So this is on the one hand the system in charge of control and on the other hand the controlled value itself. Investigating risk issues of a project on this basis can be viewed in three different ways. If every risk issue is mapped on one element and therefore tackled as soon as enough adjacent elements are listed, the interactions themselves are helpful to identify but not modeled in more detail. In this case the model described above is valid and needs no modification. Especially the parameter of complexity is not taken in. Yet if the risk is located precisely at the interaction of elements, the differential equation needs to be adapted in order to describe knowledge of risks. Substituting H (t ) = f 1+ (t ) yields the risk issues if the elements given by f (t ) are known and follow the logistic differential equation. Then the increase of only knowledge without observance of the interaction leads to delay and reduced investigation of the inherent interactions and therefore some delay of development in dependence of complexity are observed. If on the contrary exactly the interactions are made use of to develop knowledge actively the system in control are the set of interactions while the knowledge of elements just follows. In this case the bare knowledge of elements is ahead of the course and modeled by substituting
G(t ) = f 1/(1+ ) (t ) (Fig. 4).
Figure 4: Dependency on Skills and Complexity
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On this background we introduce the parameter [ 1..1] which models the skills of a project team. Skills of = 1 imply a first case where only elements are observed and are driving the development of knowledge and the actual issues of interest are the interactions following the with some delay. In contrast = 1 represents the situation, where values of interest are modeled by the elements and the interactions are used to improve the perception of unknown elements. In general we need to substitute:
R(t ) = f (1+ ) (t ) = f (t ) where = (1 + )
(21)
where R(t ) is the value of interest and f (t ) is the preceding development of primary knowledge. The exponent equals unity if either the system is not complex at all or the team skills are neutral. Only on more complex systems the skills allow to modify within the range from 0.5 to 2 (Fig. 5)
Figure 5: Exponent as a function of Skills and Complexity
The development of knowledge is characterized by the time tz to achieve exactly half the set and the respective inflection points IP1 and IP2 denoting the rise and the decline of perception, measured from the initial t0 . According to Fig. 6 the width of the development is not strongly affected but the total progress and therewith the reaching of final knowledge can be shifted by a factor 3 / 4 towards earlier or later dates.
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Figure 6: Development as a function of Exponent
Decomposed into effects of complexity and skills we find starting from a very straight project = 0 (and 1/ C = 10% ) no further influence of the quality of the project team. The rise of knowledge starts after a bit less than one time constant 1/ , the highest perceptibility is reached at about 2,3 time constants and most of the knowledge will be acquired after 3,5 time constants.
Figure 7: Development of Knowledge vs. Skills and Complexity
A most complex project in contrast allows for almost no time to start the rise if the skills are optimal, reach the center of transition at 1,5 / and the final approach at about 3 / . A
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rather less skilled team in this case will find the rise of knowledge start at 1,5 / , experience the center of transition at 3 / and finish the development at more than 4 / (Fig. 7). Obviously the influence of skills and complexity is of the order of 1/ which is therefore definitely to be observed most carefully. Of similar significance is the impact of the primary knowledge. Fig. 8 depicts the development of the center of transition tz in dependence of the initial knowledge f 0 = 1 / C . Previous graphs referred to a value of 10% leading to a center of transition at 2, 2 / . As this dependency is nearly logarithmic the parameter turns out to increase by about 2 / on every 10th of knowledge ( 1% 4,5 / , 0,1% 6,5 / ).
Figure 8: Delay of Perception by Initial knowledge
4. CONCLUSIONS
As the development of knowledge over the time can be described by this model also the identification of risky issues within a project follows the same course and can be understood by the use of the same set of parameters ( , , , f 0 ) . Preconditioned constant efforts are spent on the elaboration of risks during the development period and if the complexity is known, e.g. taken from the initial knowledge of the project according to [Zimmermann/Eber 2012] observing the initial characteristics of the increasing knowledge allows to predict coarsely the final volume as well as the time to reach it together with the share which is not ascertainable in time. Furthermore the variation in development by more or less qualified personnel can be estimated and thus controlled. Finally this approach allows for a qualified request of the initial project documentation and input in relation to the available time to develop and understand the situation to the full extent. In particular fairly substantiated statements regarding the true state of figuring out a project and the remaining unknown volume can be made on a regular basis. Further investigations on this background can be made in order to describe situations where planning
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activities overlap with production processes and where some fine tuning of design is not completed when far reaching decisions already need to be made on the footing of fragmentary knowledge of the situation. Based on this some crucial aspects of the core competence of risk management of a company, vital for the execution of complex projects, becomes approachable to fundamental parameters which can be measured, evaluated, developed and controlled by means of classical quality assurance systems. From such an approach we therefore expect some notable progress of the quality of cost and time schedules even on projects that are subjected to most relevant risky issues.
REFERENCES
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Proceedings

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012 Budapest, Hungary

Editors: Mikls Hajdu, Mirosaw J. Skibniewski

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

152 163 170

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

252 263 272

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

368 377 389

450 461 468

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

538 550 561

584 595 605

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

629 636 646

667 678 691

738 752 760

MANAGING INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IN CONSTRUCTION FIRMS: A SUGGESTED FRAMEWORK

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

2. ICT BENEFITS AND IMPLEMENTATION BARRIERS IN CONSTRUCTION

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

3. DEVELOPMENT AND PROCEDURES OF THE FRAMEWORK

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

Figure 1: Process for Managing ICT Applications in Construction Firms

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

Table 1: Illustrative Example for Prioritizing Applications According to Selection Criteria

3.4 Select Appropriate ICT Applications

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

4. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

IFC-CBR BASED COST MODEL FRAMEWORK DEVELOPMENT

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

3. IFC MODEL ANALYSIS

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

4. IFC-CBR based COST MODEL FRAMEWORK

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

Figure 2: Utilization of IFC Database

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

Figure 3: IFC-CBR based Cost Model Framework

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

EVALUATION OF SAUDI PUBLIC WORKS CONTRACT

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

3. CHOOSING FIDIC CONTRACT FOR COMPARSION

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

Comparison Aspect 1 2 Last Issue Date Contracts Forms

Saudi Unified Contract for Public Works 1986G One Form

National Laws supersede Arbitration Clause

Basis of Contract Modification Guidance for the Model Contract

Promulgations Conferences Workshops Commentary on General Conditions of the Contract

Official Question and Answer Catalogue

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

COLD ROLLED ASPHALT SURFACE COURSE CONTAINING WASTE MATERIALS

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

Creative Construction Conference 2012 June 30 July 3, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

value 2.79 2.83 0.6 2.68 2.72 1.6 2.71

Boiling Point, C Relative Density at 15 C, g/ml Residue by distillation, %

Penetration at 25 C Softening point, C Density at 25C