Coastal Disasters and Climate Change in Vietnam: Engineering and Planning Perspectives

2013.

Section 1

Typhoon, Storm Surge and Coastal Erosion

Outline

1 Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges in Southern Vietnam

2 Impacts of Typhoons on the Vietnamese Coastline

3 Coastline and River Mouth Evolution in the Central Part of the Red River Delta

4 Assessment of Vietnam Coastal Erosion and Relevant Laws and Policies

5 Area Coastal Protection and the Use of Bamboo Breakwaters in the Mekong Delta

6 Risk Analysis and Management in Coastal Regions of Vietnam

7 Coastal Vulnerabilities in a Fast-Growing Vietnamese City

1

Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges in Southern Vietnam

Hiroshi Takagi¹, Nguyen Danh Thao² and Miguel Esteban³,    ¹Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Meguro-ku, Japan,    ²Faculty of Civil Engineering, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology, Vietnam,    ³Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan

Vietnam has a long coastline and thus is highly susceptible to coastal disasters. The southern part of Vietnam has generally been perceived to be less vulnerable to typhoons or storm surges compared to the northern and central parts of the country. However, according to an analysis of tropical cyclone tracks, it appears that a substantial number of typhoons have approached southern Vietnam in the past, though the chance of occurrence is substantially smaller than along the northern or central coasts. Nevertheless, tropical cyclones in lower latitudes can sustain intensities similar to those in higher latitudes. Thus, tropical cyclones on the southern coast should not be underestimated when planning disaster risk reduction measures. In terms of climate change, historical tropical cyclone tracks do not provide any definitive conclusions regarding the separation of climate change influences from natural variability. The randomness inherent in natural variability can be considered to be more important than climate change from the point of view of disaster risk management. The authors also simulated past tropical cyclones approaching southern Vietnam and estimated that the highest water elevation due to storm surges in the past six decades was approximately 1 m.

Keywords

typhoon; tropical cyclone; storm surge; disaster risk; disaster preparedness; southern Vietnam; Mekong Delta

1.1 Introduction

Coastal floods associated with storm surges constitute the world’s most significant natural hazard, surpassing even earthquakes for loss of life and property damage (Shah, 1983). Vietnam, with a long stretch of coastline of 3260 km, is one of the most vulnerable countries to coastal disasters, especially storm surges caused by tropical cyclones. More than 70% of all natural disasters in the country are due to typhoons, and the frequency and damage totals appear to have been increasing in recent times (Imamura and Van To, 1997).

In the present paper, the authors thus attempted to analyze the potential risks of tropical cyclones and storm surges to some areas in southern Vietnam, and to show that disaster risk management in these areas should consider the potential for those natural disasters to affect low-lying areas. The tropical cyclone best track data between 1951 and 2010 was analyzed in order to get an overview of the spacial and temporal trends of tropical cyclones which made landfall along the Vietnamese coasts. The vulnerability of coastal areas in the southern part of Vietnam to storm surges was also investigated by means of computational analysis.

1.2 Tropical Cyclones in Vietnam

1.2.1 Review of Past Literature

Vietnam is a country that is frequently affected by tropical cyclones, which account for about 80% of the disasters affecting Vietnam (GTZ, 2003). For the central regions the peak occurrence of typhoon landfalls is normally during the month of October, whereas for the south it is generally centered around November. There were approximately 786 typhoons and tropical cyclones that approached or affected Vietnam during the twentieth century. These storms generally hit the mainland, especially the coastal provinces in the north and the center of Vietnam (Kleinen, 2007).

Regarding the influence of climate change, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Vietnam (MONRE) shows that in recent years there has been an increase in the number of high-intensity typhoons affecting Vietnam. It has been claimed that typhoon tracks have a tendency to move southward and the typhoon seasons end later (MONRE, 2003, 2009). According to MONRE, a number of Vietnamese reports and articles have highlighted growing concerns over the threat posed by typhoons in the context of climate change. However, MONRE’s reports do not show clear scientific evidence to corroborate this tendency, despite the fact that their analysis is likely to have great influence on climate change policy in Vietnam.

Contrary to the general belief that the frequency of tropical cyclones will progressively increase, at present many scientists support the view that as a consequence of global warming it is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged. Knutson et al. (2010) found that current models project frequency changes ranging from −6% to −34% globally, and up to ±50% or more in individual basins by the late twenty-first century.

In terms of intensity, however, some increase in the mean maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones is likely (+2% to +11% globally) with projected twenty-first-century warming, although increases may not take place in all tropical regions (Knutson et al., 2010). In fact, in recent years, a number of researchers have even voiced concerns about the possibility that global warming may have already been causing an increase in tropical cyclone intensity, and it is claimed that a 30-year analysis of satellite records of tropical cyclones provides evidence for this (Webster et al., 2005). Also, an analysis of the trends in the upper quintiles of cyclone maximum wind speeds found a significant upward trend for wind speed quintiles above the 70th percentile (Elsner et al., 2008). Such increases could have important consequences for ports and coastal areas, which would be affected by higher waves and suffer more disruption to economic activities (Takagi et al., 2011; Esteban et al., 2009).

Nevertheless, it seems possible that current fluctuations in tropical cyclone intensity are not necessarily related to global warming but rather are related to other natural fluctuations. For example, it is believed that some of these variations could be due to short-scale decadal cycles such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Mousavi et al., 2011). It has been argued that long-term records do not reveal any changes in underlying frequency and severity, as the historical trend might not be enough to detect how climate might be affecting typhoons (Landsea et al., 2006). It thus seems unlikely that the debate regarding how rising greenhouse gas concentrations can affect tropical cyclones will end soon (Mendelsonhn et al., 2012).

1.2.2 Track Analysis Using JTWC Data Between 1951 and 2010

In the present study, the authors used the so-called Typhoon Best Track Data, obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), to analyze the typhoon tracks around the East Sea. The data consists of time, geographical position of the storm center, minimum sea-level pressure at the storm center, and the maximum sustained wind speed in knots.

Figure 1.1 shows more than 200 tracks of typhoons which developed in the East Sea and approached the Vietnamese coast in the past 60 years (i.e., from 1951 to 2010). Separate figures were created for each decade in order to attempt to identify any trends in tropical cyclone landfall. In these figures, a diamond-shaped symbol is used to display when a tropical cyclone becomes a typhoon (the change in denomination takes place when the wind speed exceeds 64 knots or 32.7 m/s). These figures show how typhoons and tropical cyclones are much less frequent in the southern than in the northern and central parts of Vietnam. This is mainly due to the fact that the Coriolis effect, which is needed to initiate and maintain tropical cyclone rotation, is much weaker at low latitudes.

Figure 1.1 JTWC Typhoon Best Tracks around East Sea from 1951 to 2010. A diamond-shaped symbol is used to display when a tropical storm becomes a typhoon (wind speed exceeding 64 knots).

1.2.3 Tropical Cyclone Landfall Along the Coasts of Vietnam

To explore the occurrence of tropical cyclones approaching the coasts of Vietnam in more detail, the authors developed a numerical code for detecting the points of landfall, defined as the places where a tropical cyclone track intersects with the coastline. Figures 1.2 and 1.3 were created to try to analyze in detail both the temporal and spatial patterns of tropical cyclone landfall along the entire Vietnamese coastline.

Figure 1.2 (A) Landfall points along Vietnamese coast between 1951 and 2010. (B) Annual frequency of landfalls for each 1° segment of the coastline. (C) Total number of landfalls for each 1° segment of the coastline between 1951 and 2010. (D) Annual total number of tropical cyclones making landfall Vietnam between 1951 and 2010.

Figure 1.3 (A) Landfall points along Vietnamese coast between 1951 and 2010. (B) Maximum tropical cyclone wind speeds for 1° segment of the coastline. (C) Wind speeds when tropical cyclones made landfall between 1951 and 2010.

It can be readily recognized that tropical cyclone landfall patterns significantly changed with time and location from north to south, and thus it is likely that the relatively short period dataset (only between 1951 and 2010) does not allow any definitive conclusions regarding the separation of climate change influences from natural variability, which clearly disagrees with the conclusions by MONRE (2003 and 2009). Indeed, it seems that Figure 1.2(D) shows a slight upward trend in the number of tropical cyclones in the last six decades, and thus one may perceive the presence of climate change effects. However, Figure 1.2(D) also clearly demonstrates that the number of tropical cyclones is predominantly characterized by yearly or decadal fluctuations, and it is inevitable that the average trend is greatly influenced by volatility over such relatively short cycles. Thus, the authors believe that a long-term trend due to climate change cannot easily be detected from the currently available dataset.

The southern part of Vietnam has generally been perceived to be less vulnerable to typhoons or storm surges compared to the northern and central parts of the country. According to Figure 1.1, however, tropical cyclones have made landfall even in the southernmost part of Vietnam, although the chance of occurrence appears to be substantially smaller than along the northern or central coasts. It is also worth noting that in lower latitudes there is a moderate peak in the landfall frequency between 12°N and 13°N, which encompasses the popular tourist destination of Nha Trang. This southern coast thus has suffered from periodic tropical cyclones with strong winds, as proved by Figure 1.3(C). According to these results, it is likely that the tropical cyclones in lower latitudes (southern coast) could sustain intensities similar to those in higher latitudes (central and northern coasts), and thus tropical cyclones in the southern coasts should not be underestimated when planning future disaster risk reduction adaptation strategies. Currently, it appears that the resilience of coastal communities in the south of the country is relatively low (see Chapters 7 and 12), and both awareness and disaster preparedness should be improved throughout the south of the country.

Table 1.1 gives the number of typhoons that passed over Vietnam’s coasts in the last six decades. Each tropical cyclone was categorized into three latitude zones (North: 21.5°−18°N, Center: 18°−14°N, and South: 14°−9.5°N) according to the point where it made landfall in order to attempt to identify trends over time. MONRE (2009) indicates that in recent years there have been more high-intensity typhoons and that the tracks have a tendency to move southward. However, judging from Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1, there is no clear evidence to justify that the idea that the courses of tropical cyclones are shifting toward the south, despite the claim to this effect made by MONRE.

Table 1.1

Number of Tropical Cyclones That Made Landfall on the Coasts of Vietnam, Categorized into Three Latitude Zones, for the Six Decades Between 1951 and 2010

1.3 Storm Surges in Vietnam

1.3.1 Review of Past Literature

A storm surge is a rise in sea water level caused by high winds that push on the ocean’s surface and by the low pressure at the center of a storm system. Bangladesh is the area in the world most affected by storm surges, with over a hundred on record. About 60% of all deaths due to storm surges have occurred in the low-lying arable coastal areas of the countries bordering the Bay of Bengal and the adjoining Andaman Sea (Murty, 1984). Therefore, much research has been carried out to understand the characteristics of storm surges and how their magnitude can be increased by the local topography and bathymetry in the Bay of Bengal (Murty et al., 1986). Likewise, many papers assessing storm surge risks have been published in other countries that are typically affected by these events, such as the United States and Japan. However, there seems to have been comparatively little research carried out along the coast of Vietnam, with the exception of a series of studies made by Vietnamese researchers (Pham, 1992) under United Nations Development Program (UNDP) projects. Pham (1992) gave an overview of storm surges in the northern coast of Vietnam from 16°N to 22°N. Nguyen (2008) also performed a simulation of storm surges by using numerical models for Typhoon Ling Ling, which made landfall in the central coast of Vietnam in