Big Ideas is a series of briefings on big ideas coming out of The National Archives' research programme. Covering themes of innovation, creativity and excellence each Big Idea will share with colleagues and professionals aspects of innovative research taking place at The National Archives and elsewhere that could apply to their own area of work.

Being able to predict with any precision how collections will change over time is difficult - we are always reliant on historical data. But like fashion designers predicting future trends, we now use the data we collect everyday to model the future. The National Archives uses computer models to underpin collection management decisions and has successfully used them to reduce energy costs. In this talk, Nancy Bell, Head of Collection Care, The National Archives, and Dr Matija Strli?, Centre for Sustainable Heritage, University College London, showcase the potential of computer modelling to support the business and aid decision making.