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Andri Rusta
Pertemuan 12 Sistem Perwakilan Politik
Can you see any problems with this theory straightaway? What are they?
Some questions
1. Explain partisan and class dealignment, with an example for each. 2. Using dominant ideology theory, which political party in Indonesia has the advantage at the moment? Why is this the case? 3. What are the problems with the so called rational choice theory?
PERSONALITIES Is it more important in the US than the UK? Can popular leaders compensate for unpopular parties, and vice versa? Prof. Anthony King: Voters are like diners in a restaurant more interested in the food than whoever the head waiter is
RETROSPECTIVE VOTING Record of the previous government highly important, and not just in a negative way; both positive and negative records can have a significant effect on voting behaviour.
THE CAMPAIGN Can be significant in three ways; Is it well run; Are voters activated;
SOCIAL CLASS Lack of class consciousness in the USA not an issues as in the UK. Democrats do not strike a haves vs. have nots tone, as many more well off Democrats may be put off.
PARTY IDENTIFICATION 76% identified with a political party in 1964; 60% in 1996. Decrease shown by high levels of split ticket voting. Links to rational choice and dominant ideology theory?
LONG TERM FACTORS: 1. Party identification and loyalty, or partisan alignment; 2. Social class and perceived membership of a social grouping, or class alignment; 3. Other factors relating to social structure, such as age, gender, occupation, ethinicity, and religion.
Party identification
Voters have a long term attachment to a particular party. PARTISANSHIP and CLASS ALIGNMENT. Under this model elections and results will be stable and fairly continuous because voting patterns continue through families and classes. Problems and issues with this model: 1. Unsuited to a socially mobile society; 2. Cannot explain the rise of third party and independent candidates; 3. Cannot explain independent voters at election time.
To what extent does this voting model still hold true? Has it become MORE relevant in the last decade?
Sociological model
Voters can be defined by their membership of certain groups;
Gender; Class; Religion; Regional; Ethnic.
CONVENTIONAL WISDOM;
Women, urban dwellers, ethnic minority, high incomes, high level of education Democratic voters. Male, suburban or country, middle income, religious Republican voters.
Does this model adequately explain voting patterns in the USA? Significant blurring of boundaries between racial and regional groups in the USA. More ethnic minorities voting Republican as their incomes increase; Religion not a definitive signpost of voting intent in recent elections either.
Rational choice
Voter acts in a rational way based on self interest rather than any long term habit. V.O. Key (1966) retrospective or adaptive voting; Hilde T. Himmelweit (1985) voters as consumers or issue voters.
Model has flaws and benefits. Flaws Bush on Iraq, Clinton and Lewinsky; Benefits 2008 election, voting based on economy?
Dominant ideology
Importance of the media at election time. Voters will vote on issues, as in rational choice theory, but only on the issues which the media declares to be important. The key difference between this and rational choice theory is that the media makes the choice on behalf of the voters. What argument could you make for this theory? What argument could you make against it?
Of these qualities, find an example to use for three of them which would explain your mark. According to your work, who is the best all round party leader.
Summary
Which of the theories you have looked at is the most plausible? Are there any which you think are not plausible at all?
Homework
For Monday, bring with you notes on the general election campaigns of 1992 and 1997. What were the major determinants of voting behaviour in these elections? Those of you with a textbook can use pages 25 27 as their starting point.
1979 General Election - The era from 1945 - 1979 had been characterised by a 'consensus' style of politics, in which the main parties mostly agreed on certain fundamental political issues and concepts such as the mixed economy, the role of the trades unions, the need for an incomes policy and the nature of the provision of public services such as health and education. This was now to change, with sweeping reforms of failing public industries. Most of all, Mrs Thatcher's policies heralded a change in the politics of unemployment., where controlling this came second to controlling inflation.
1992 General Election - Tax was a key theme of the election and one with which the Tories hoped they could clobber Labour. To that extent it was a negative campaign - with the Tories liberally costing Labour's policy commitments as a 37.9bn tax hike - while in reply Labour campaign posters called a caped Norman Lamont "Vatman". The Tory campaign under the direction of party chairman Chris Patten focused on hammering Labour over tax - and on the personality of John Major. The prime minister - who after a slow start found his campaigning feet when he reverted to using a soapbox to address crowds in the street - made much of his Brixton roots, most memorably in a election broadcast.
Herbert Feith dan Castles Kaum Nasionalis: nasionalis sekuler, nasionalis pro Jepang, dan nasionalis anti Jepang. Golongan Islam Golongan Komunis
Maklumat Pemerintah 3 November 1945 menjadi dasar hukum pembentukan parpol. Pembentukan parpol didasari kepentingan: memperkuat perjuangan mempertahankan kemerdekaan, menjamin keamanan masyarakat, dan wadah bagi semua paham yang ada di masyarakat sehingga dapat dipimpin ke jalan yang teratur
PERTENTANGAN
IDEOLOGI
Pertentangan ideologi sudah terjadi pada awal kemerdekaan, terutama saat menghadapi Belanda yang berusaha menjajah kembali. Pertentangan Ideologi terjadi antara: sosialis, nasionalis, Islam dan ideologi lain.
Bersama-sama dengan kaum intelektual yang tidak terikat (unattached intellectuals), partai politik telah menjadi sumber pemikiran politik. Parpol pun telah menjadi sarana bagi alternation of power.
Sebagai systems of ideas, partai politik dalam kurun 1945-1965 telah mampu memberikan jawaban ideologis atas pertanyaan-pertanyaan yang muncul menyertai cepatnya perubahan masyarakat dan sistem nilainya.
POLITICAL PLATFORM
Pada awal kemerdekaan konflik antarparpol bermotif ideologis. Konflik ideologi muncul akibat perbedaan preferensi tentang masyarakat dan negara yang dicita-citakan dan hendak diperjuangkan melalui partai politik.
Orientasi Agama: Santri memilih PPP karena alasan ideologis: kaum abangan memilih Golkar dan PDIP bukan karena alasan ideologis. (Afan Gaffar , 1992) Orientasi Kelas dan Kelompok Sosial: perilaku pemilih tidak berkorelasi dengan kelas sosial, karena: (1) sistem ekonomi agraris-subsisten tidak memupuk kesadaran kelas; (2) penghapusan PKI dan pengebirian parpol melahirkan depolitisasi penduduk desa; (3) trauma pembunuhan terhadap antek komunis; (4) pemerintahan Orba menjauhkan antagonisme berdasarkan agama; (5) menengah-atas memilih Golkar demi kemudahankemudahan.
Faktor kepemimpinan: pemimpin formal dan informal mempengaruhi perilaku memilih masyarakat Jawa (ulama, santri, partai Islam versus priyayi, abangan, nasionalis). Faktor identifikasi: identifikasi kepartaian pemilih identik dengan identifikasi kepartaian orang tua mereka. Orientasi isu: tidak berkorelasi dengan perilaku pemilih
Orientasi Kandidat: tidak berpengaruh terhadap perilaku pemilih dalam Pemilu 1992 dan 1997 karena yang dipilih tanda gambar parpol.
Kaitan dengan peristiwa: peristiwa yang menimpa kandidat yang diajukan parpol mempengaruhi keputusan para pemilih.
TERIMA KASIH
SEMOGA BERMANFAAT & MENJADI PENCERAHAN BUAT KITA SEMUA
Voting Behaviour
The US electorate tends to be divided by religion, ethnicity, race and region. These are much more important in explaining voting patterns than class or income, which tend to predominate in the UK and Europe.
Voting Behaviour
Traditionally, Republicans have been described as WASPs (White Anglo-Saxon Protestants), and the rest - Catholic, black, Jewish, and Southern have tended to side with the Democrats.
entered politics in 1946 and won election as a Democrat to the US House of Representatives.
Voting Behaviour
However, one of the key changes in the last 25 years has been the shift of Southern whites towards the Republican party although President George Bush's Republicans recently have fared badly in state and local polls, losing races across the US.
Voting Behaviour
What is the secret of the Republican's appeal to these voters?
Voting Behaviour
For the last two decades, the parties have sought to mobilise their core supporters by appealing not to class but to "value" issues. The hot electoral issues in the USA are abortion, gun control and the environment. And many of these world views are linked to where you live, with city dwellers being both more ethnically diverse and more likely to hold the "liberal" views on these issues.
Voting Behaviour
The rural voters, in contrast, hold more traditional views. They are strongly patriotic and less likely to question the President's right to set the foreign policy agenda.
Voting Behaviour
they generally are more likely to oppose gun control and tight environmental protection, while worrying about whether there are too many abortions and single parents.
Voting Behaviour
This polarises politics, with Democrats supporting Affirmative Action, redistribution of wealth, welfare rights, reform of the criminal justice system and other liberal causes. Republicans in turn, will emphasise policies which appeal to their white, middle class heartland. Issues such as tax cutting, law enforcement, welfare reform and cutting back on federal spending.
Voting Behaviour
This will vary geographically. White Democrats in the South will be noticeably more conservative and will have more in common with their Republican foes than with black Democrats. This is because while they know they have the black vote in the bag, it is less likely to vote.
Voting Behaviour
There is therefore a need to appeal to white voters in order to win. White voters in the Deep South are poorer, less liberal and more likely to vote Republican because of their social policies (for example, pro capital punishment, anti-abortion, anti-gay rights
Voting Behaviour
The largest cities and the biggest states are now disproportionately Democratic, while the rural areas and small states are trending Republican.
The Republicans lost six of the eight largest states in the last presidential election, capturing only Texas and Florida - but only just. However, again the Republicans ran strongly in the smaller rural states of West and South.
Voting Behaviour
By European standards, both the Democrats and Republicans are remarkably similar in their ideology - or lack of it.
Voting Behaviour
Instead, religion is a key element in the party coalitions, especially for the Republicans (although black Democrats are also strongly religious.) Evangelical Christians are far more likely to vote for the Republicans than any other group.
Voting Behaviour
The Democrat coalition now includes both the richest income groups and the poorest - who tend to be disproportionately black or Hispanic
Voting Behaviour
Bill Clinton drew both sides of his party together Bill Clinton was successful because of his ability to appeal to both the urban black poor, and to the rich Democrats who were his main funders.
Voting Behaviour
The Republicans are also a coalition of the Christian conservatives, who feel strongly about "value issues" like abortion, and the small business community, who are strong advocates of tax cuts and deregulation
Voting Behaviour
George W Bush himself belongs to a special subset of the business community Texas oilmen - but he has found it necessary to reach out to the religious right through his special adviser, Karl Rove. (pictured)