NewYorkSenateDistrict46 Tkaczyk forStateSenate

OCTOBER8,2012

Methodology
500interviewsconductedbetweenOctober4th and7th at
approximately15minutesinlength. Registered,likelyvotersintheupcomingNewYork26th senate districtelection 3samplesbypartyregistration
Democrats 36% Independents/Blanks 31%(oversamplen=250interviews) Republicans 32%

4.9%marginoferror

GenericStateSenateTrial Heat
AllVoters AlbanyMM AlbanyCounty GreeneCounty Mont/SchenCounty UlsterCounty Men Women UnderAge50 Age5064 Age65+ Democrats Independents Republicans IndependentMen IndependentWomen

41% 34% 46% 34% 26% 53% 35% 45% 43% 41% 37% 77% 30% 10% 21% 37% 13%

40% 46% 42% 49% 47% 28% 45% 35% 39% 36% 45%

37% 73% 45% 30%

Democrat

Republican

GeorgeAmedore Favorability
AllVoters AlbanyCounty GreeneCounty Mont/SchenCounty UlsterCounty MenUnder50 Men50+ WomenUnder50 Women50+ Democrats Independents Republicans IndependentsUnder50 Independents50+ GovtEmployee LaborHH

47% 56% 39% 75% 23% 58% 53% 32% 45% 36% 45% 63% 35% 51% 49% 48% Favorable

13% 11% 15% 16% 11% 8% 13% 15% 15% 18% 11% 9% 9% 12% 18% 16% Unfavorable

StateSenateTrialHeat
ALL VOTERS AlbanyMM AlbanyCounty GreeneCounty Mont/ Schen County UlsterCounty Men Women MenUnder50 Men50+ WomenUnder50 Women50+ Tkaczyk 37% 29 36 40 19 50 32 41 34 31 44 39 Amedore 50% 60 54 50 70 32 55 46 53 57 43 47 Undecided 13% 11 10 11 11 18 13 14 13 12 13 14

StateSenateTrialHeatContinued
ALL VOTERS NonCollege Men CollegeMen NonCollegeWomen College Women Democrats Independents Independent Men Independent Women Independents Under50 IndependentsOver50 Republicans GovernmentEmployee LaborHousehold Tkaczyk 37% 23 43 35 50 66 30 27 32 28 30 10 37 41 Amedore 50% 61 48 53 36 23 54 58 50 51 56 77 52 49 Undecided 13% 16 9 12 14 11 17 15 18 21 14 13 11 10

CampaignFinanceReformProposal
PartlyFavor 32% Partly Oppose 14% Strongly Oppose 9% Democrats Independents Republicans

69% 66% 64%

20% 25% 25%

Notsure/ Refused 10%

Ind.Men Ind.Women Ind.Under50

66% 65% 59% 70% Favor

24% 25% 32% 21% Oppose

Strongly Favor 35%

Ind.Over50

PartyIssueAdvantage
(RankedbyDifferential)
Isonyourside

37%

35%

WillworktocleanupAlbany

32%

32%

Willreducetaxburdenonthe middleclass

39%

41%

Istoobeholdentospecial interests

25%

32%

Willworktohelpsmall business

34% Democrat

46% Republican

TrialHeatAfterBios
PositiveMovers
IndependentsUnder 50 Tkaczyk 43% IndependentWomen Amedore 47% WomenUnder50 Mont/SchenCounty NonCollegeWomen NonCollegeMen Notsure/ Refused 8% Other/ Neither 2% LaborHH

+19 +13 +12 +11 +10 +10 +10

Amedore Negatives
Willallowinsurancecostodenycarefor preexistingconditions Votedtobanabortioninallcases, pharmacistsrefusebc Supportsvouchers,wouldtakemoney outofpublicschools Againsttaxincreaseforrich,increasing minimumwage,smbusinessloans Opposesstemcellresearch Votedtokeepgivingtaxbreakstocorps shippingjobsoverseas PartofpaytoplaycultureinAlbany Taken$50kfromoneLIrealestate developer Taken$65kfromrealestate,voted againstsmbusinessloans Supportsfrakking Aluxuryhomedeveloper,votedagainst foreclosuremoratorium

47% 43% 39% 39% 39% 38% 36% 35% 34% 34% 34%
SomewhatLessLikely

14% 13% 19% 17% 17% 19% 15% 15% 21% 17% 16%
NoDifference FALSE

10% 16% 18% 24% 19% 19% 26% 31% 26% 20% 29% 5%

19% 14% 8%

7% 3% 10% 5% 13% 3%

8% 6% 5% 8% 12% 6% 9% 4%

10%

11% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 16% 8%

7% 8% 5%
NotSure

MuchLessLikely

MoreLikely

Amedore Negatives Among Subgroups

MuchLessLikely ALLVOTERS Ulster County Under Age50 Ind/Blanks ALLVOTERS UlsterCounty Womenunder50 ALL VOTERS Ulster County Ind/blanks under50 Women50+ 47% 66 57 49 43% 61 49 39% 49 48 47 SomewhatLessLikely 14% 12 12 10 13% 11 12 19% 18 15 17 NoDifference 10% 2 7 7 16% 9 8 18% 13 17 16 Q.29AgainstObamacare, denywomenshealthscreenings,preexistingconditions

Q.31Banabortion,allowpharmacists todenyemergencyBC

Q.35Supportsvouchers,cut$45Mfromlocalschools

Amedore Negatives Among Subgroups

MuchLessLikely ALLVOTERS Ulster County Undecided voters Ind/blanksunder50 ALLVOTERS Ulster County Women 50+ Undecided voters ALL VOTERS Undecidedvoters Albany County Age65+ Ind/blankWomen 39% 51 44 42 39% 50 52 40 38% 50 46 44 40 SomewhatLessLikely 17% 13 20 21 17% 15 13 26 19% 6 15 18 20 NoDifference 19% 17 14 16 24% 22 12 14 19% 23 15 22 30 Q.37Opposesstemcellresearch,wouldriskthousandsofgoodNYjobs

Q.30Againsttaxincreaseforrich,minwageraise,andsmallbusinessloans

Q28 Votedtokeeptaxbreaksforjoboutsourcers

FinalTrialHeat
ALL VOTERS AlbanyMM AlbanyCounty GreeneCounty Mont/ Schen County UlsterCounty Men Women MenUnder50 Men50+ WomenUnder50 Women50+ Tkaczyk 48% 40 45 44 36 62 43 53 42 44 56 50 Amedore 39% 47 46 45 49 24 44 35 42 45 32 37 ChangetoTkaczyk +22 +24 +17 +9 +38 +20 +22 +23 +19 +25 +23 +21

FinalTrialHeatContinued
ALL VOTERS NonCollege Men CollegeMen NonCollegeWomen College Women Democrats Independents Ind. Men Ind. Women Ind. Under50 Ind.Over50 Republicans Govt Employee LaborHH Tkaczyk 48% 40 46 46 62 78 42 40 44 47 39 20 48 53 Amedore 39% 48 40 41 28 15 40 43 37 32 45 66 40 38 ChangetoTkaczyk +22 +30 +11 +23 +20 +20 +26 +28 +25 +38 +20 +21 +23 +23