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Correspondents Notebook.

Issue no. 009 (with Central Asia & South Caucasus News no. 133) April 29 2013

Monthly on-the-ground insights from Conway Bulletin correspondents in Central Asia and the South Caucasus

Edited in London editor@theconwaybulletin.com

DISPATCH: Politics in Armenia

>>Since 2008, street politics in Yerevan have changed YEREVAN- The result of Armenias presidential election on Feb. 18 was disputed, just like it was five years ago. And, just like in 2008, the opposition staged regular demonstrations. This year, though, the urbane Raffi Hovhannisyan, leader of the Heritage Party, led the demonstrations against President Serzh Sarksyan. In 2008, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the firebrand former president led demonstrations. The two men took a very different approach. Instead of whiping up the crowd in increasingly antagonistic speeches, as Ter-Petrosyan did, a tactic that eventually lead to clashes that killed 10 people, Hovhannisyan has taken a calmer approach. And has impressed people on the streets of Armenias capital. "What the opposition leader does today is a new style for Armenia, maybe its a more Western style campaign," said Laura Gevorgyan, a young activist who has followed most of the protests. Hovhannisyan has dubbed his approach a Barevolution after the Armenian word for hello -barev. Despite Hovhannisyans efforts, Sarksyan took the presidential oath for his second five-year term on April 9. This disappointed some of Hovhannisyans supporters. For many, though, avoiding violence meant that progress has been made.
DISPATCH: Tourism in the Pamirs

>>An increased number of homestays has given tourism a boost JAWSHANGOZ/Tajikistan - In this hamlet in the mountains of eastern Tajikistan, Firishtamo Shohnavruzov made a note in his battered jotter. Like many poor farmers, Shohnavruzov has opened his home to international visitors. "Two guests paid $5 each for plov (a rice and mutton dish) and chai (tea) and $14 for lodging," he said. The Pamirs are remote and rugged but with an increasing number of tour operators and basic B&Bs, they are attracting a growing number of intrepid travellers. In the first half of 2011, for example, the Pamir Eco Cultural Tourism Association (PECTA) noted a near 40% increase in the number of tourists to their office in Khorog, the main town in the south of the country. Shohnavruzov Homestay is typical of the locally-based tourism PECTA, set up in 2008, wants to encourage. The main attraction is the so-called Pamir Highway, an arduous 500km Soviet-built road over soaring mountain passes that connects Khorog to Osh in Southern Kyrgyzstan. There are still many, basic, infrastructure challenges, though. Gulnara Akhmatbekovna, a tour guide in Murgab near the Kyrgyz border, leafed through various guides printed out in different languages. "What Id really like is an internet connection that doesnt run on a generator," she said.
ANALYSIS: North Caucasus Islamic radicalism and Central Asia >>Central Asia, a short hop over the Caspian Sea, is potentially vulnerable to radical Islamic ideas emanating out of the North Caucasus ALMATY - The Tsarnaev brothers, blamed for bombing the Boston marathon earlier this month, were ethnic Chechens, brought up in Kyrgyzstan who apparently learnt about radical Islam in Dagestan. This link, between radical Islamic ideas in Russias North Caucasus and Central Asia, cant be ignored. Domestic security in Central Asia and NATOs main route for withdrawing its equipment from Afghanistan are potentially vulnerable. But, although bomb attacks blamed on radical Islamists, increased in 2010 and 2011 in Kazakhstan, several Almaty-based analysts said the impact of radical Islamic ideology from the North Caucasus on Central Asia should not be overstated. "Today there is no direct connection reported between the insurgency in North Caucasus and terrorist acts taking place in Kazakhstan," Zhulduz Baizakov, a Kazakhstan-based analyst, said. "The ideology, methods and purposes are different." Instead, analysts said that the radicalising influence from the Arabian peninsula and Afghanistan was more important than from the North Caucasus. But the North Caucasus brand of radical Islam is accessible. Its also worrying the Kazakh security forces. They are concerned with both the trickle of young Kazakh men fighting with rebels in Dagestan and the emergence of Islamic literature from the North Caucasus in Kazakhstan.
www.theconwaybulletin.com The Conway Bulletin, 12 Melcombe Place, London, NW1 6JJ Copyright 2013

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