NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

CHNG IV

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Ni dung : Gii thiu chung c lng dng tin ca d n c lng chi ph s dng vn ca d n La chn cc tiu chun a ra quyt nh u t d n Phn tch ri ro d n

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

- Lin quan n u t di hn ca cng ty

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Quan iem tong au t - Ngan hang (Total Investment Point of View -TIP)

- Li ch ma d an tao ra sau khi a tr toan bo cac chi ph va chi ph c hoi ma

khong phan biet cac nguon von tham gia - Ngan lu tnh toan la ngan lu trc khi thanh ton cac ngha vu n, hay noi cach khac la phan chia cho cac ben theo th t u tien

Cac chu n Chu au t (chu s hu)

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Quan iem chu au t (Equity Point of View - EPV)

* Phan con lai cuoi cung cua chu au t nhan c se la bao nhieu
* Ngan lu tnh toan la ngan lu tong au t sau khi a tr phan ngha vu tra n (goc, lai)

* Ngan lu tnh toan la ngan lu cuoi cung ma chu au t nhan c sau khi a

Cong them phan von tai tr (Ngan lu vao) Tr tra n va lai vay von au t (Ngan lu ra)

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N
S nham lan gia hai quan iem TIP va EPV
Khi tham nh hai quan iem nay rat de b nham lan, trong bao cao ngan lu thng

Ch a phan tra lai ma khong co tra goc ngan lu ra Ch a phan tra n goc va lai ngan lu ra ma khong co phan von tai tr ngan lu vao

a phan von tai tr trong ngan lu vao ma khong tra n goc va lai ngan lu ra
Quan iem TIP: Khong a n goc va lai vao ngan lu d an Quan iem EPV: a n goc va lai vao ca ngan lu vao lan ngan lu ra.

Nguyen tac chung:

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N
CAC QUAN IEM PHAN TCH D AN

Quan iem tong au t

Thc Thu Thc Chi Chi Ph C Hoi Tr Cap Thue Vay/Tra N

+ +

+ -

Quan iem chu au t

+
+/-

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Cc d n u t c th phn loi: - D n u t mi ti sn c nh - D n thay th nhm duy tr hot ng sn xut kinh doanh hoc ct gim chi ph - D n m rng sn phm hoc th trng hin c sang sn phm hoc th trng mi - D n khc

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

- Mc ch u t - Hiu qu u t

- D n c lp
- D n ph thuc - D n loi tr

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Quy trnh phn tch v quyt nh u t

Xc nh d n
Tm c hi v a ra ngh u t vo d n

nh gi d n:
c lng dng tin lin quan v sut chit khu hp l

La chn tiu chun quyt nh

(NPV, IRR, PBP, PI)

Ra quyt nh: Chp nhn hay t chi d n

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Cc bc thc hin

Q
Tnh IRR, NPV, c lng ri ro

Ngn lu rng

Tnh ton cc dng ngn lu Thu thp cc thng s u vo

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

C 4 tiu chun ph bin thng c s dng trong vic nh gi v la chn cc d n u t

- Tiu chun hin gi thun - NPV Net Present Value

Tiu chun t sut sinh li ni b - IRR Interal Rate of Return - Tiu chun ch s sinh li PI Profitable index - Tiu chun thi gian thu hi vn PBP Payback Period
-

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N
1.

Hin gi rng (NPV) Gi tr hin ti rng (NPV) ca mt d n l gi tr ca dng tin d kin trong tng lai c quy v hin gi tr i vn u t ban u ca d n.

NPV = Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin d kin trong tng lai u t ban u K hiu dng tin nm t CF t r sut chit khu ca d n n tui th ca d n I chi ph u t ban u

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Nm 0 CF -I 1 2 . n

CF1

CF2

CFn

CF1 CF2 CFn NPV I ... 1 2 (1 r) (1 r) (1 r) n

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N
V d: Xem xt dng tin ca d n ca cng ty A nh sau n v : USD Li sut: 10%/ nm Nm 0 Vn T Thu nhp Dng ngn lu NPV -2000 166,18 -2000 500 500 446,43 600 600 478,32 800 800 569,42 900 900 571,97 Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4

500 600 800 900 NPV 2000 1 2 3 (1,1) (1,1) (1,1 ) (1,1) 4

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Nhn xt: - Khi NPV = 0, d n c b p v gi tr tin t theo thi gian v c ri ro ca d n. - Khi li sut chit khu ca d n tng, NPV ca d n s gim. - Mi quan h gia NPV v li sut chit khu ca d NPV $ n c m t thng qua nghin hin gi thun.

r%

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

i vi cc d n c lp - NPV > 0 : chp nhn d n - NPV = 0 : Ty quan im ca nh u t - NPV < 0 : Loi b d n

i vi cc d n loi tr nhau - NPV > 0 v - NPV ln nht

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N
- Vi cng mt t sut chit khu, d n no c NPV ln

chng t d n c hiu qu hn v n to c gi tr cho cng ty. - Mt d n c NPV>0 c ngha l d n c t sut sinh li cao hn chi ph c hi ca vn (t sut sinh li cao hn t sut chit khu). - Mt d n c NPV=0 c ngha l d n c t sut sinh li bng vi chi ph c hi ca vn (t sut sinh li ca d n bng t sut chit khu). - Mt d n c NPV<0 c ngha l d n c t sut sinh li thp hn chi ph c hi ca vn (t sut sinh li ca d n < t sut chit khu).

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

V d: Mt cng ty lp t mt h thng thit b sn xut. C hai h thng c xem xt A v B, nhng ch c 1 c la chn. H thng A yu cu mt khon u t ban u l 300.000$ v dng tin pht sinh mi nm l 76000$ trong vng 6 nm. H thng B yu cu mt khon u t ban u ln hn l 430.000$. Tuy nhin h thng B li tiu hao lao ng t hn v chi ph hot ng cng thp hn, dng tin pht sinh mi nm l 110.000$ trong 6 nm, chi ph s dng vn ca cng ty l 12%. Nn la chn d n no u t?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N * u im ca NPV - Tiu chun NPV ghi nhn tin t c gi tr thi gian - NPV ch da trn duy nht hai d kin: dng tin c d on t d n v chi ph c hi ca ng vn, khng ph thuc vo ch quan ca nh qun l. - Vic tnh ton gi tr hin ti u c o lng bi 1 ng ngy hm nay nn c th cng dn NPV (A+B) = NPV(A) + NPV(B) * Nhc im - Vic tnh ton ph thuc vo t sut chit khu, do , i hi phi quyt nh t sut chit khu ph hp mi p dng tiu chun ny. - Cc d n khng ng nht v thi gian - Xp hng u tin trong vic la chn d n khi ngun vn doanh nghip b gii hn.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

2. Tiu chun IRR

- IRR (Interal rate of return) l mt d n c li sut chit khu m ti

NPV bng 0. - y chnh l im ha vn v li sut ca d n, l ranh gii nh u t quyt nh la chn d n. - T sut thu nhp ni b o lng t sut sinh li m bn thn d n to ra.
NPV

IRR

r%

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

NPV

IRR
C

NPV1

0
NPV2

IRR1
B

IRR2

r%

IRR
D E

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

AB BC AD DE IRR IRR NPV1 1 NPV1 NPV2 IRR2 IRR1 NPV1 IRR r1 (r2 r1 ) * NPV1 NPV2

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Tnh gn ng bng phng php ni suy Bc 1: Chn 1 li sut i bt k (r l s chn) v gi l r1. Dng r1 tnh NPV ca d n v gi l NPV1 . K thut tnh ton: - Nu NPV1 > 0 v NPV1 qu ln -- nng r1 ln NPV nh xung - Nu NPV1 < 0 v NPV1 qu ln --> h r1 NPV1 gim xung. Bc 2: Chn 1 mc li sut r2 (nguyn) bt k theo quy tc sau: - Nu NPV1 > 0 th chn i2 > r1 --> tnh NPV2 ng vi r2 NPV2 < 0 - Nu NPV1 < 0 th chn i2 < r1 --> tnh NPV2 ng vi r2 NPV2 > 0 . Ghi ch: NPV1 v NPV2 phi i du. Bc 3: Ni suy xc nh IRR theo cng thc.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N
Cch tnh IRR ca d n xc nh IRR ca mt d n, chng ta s dng phng php th v sai (try and wrong), ngha l chng ta s th cc gi tr li sut khc nhau tm mc li sut lm cho NPV bng 0. Tuy nhin, khi tnh ton chng ta c th kt hp vi cng thc ni suy tm IRR.

NPV1 IRR r1 (r2 r1 ) * NPV1 NPV2

Vi iu kin c kt qu chnh xc l

r2 r1 1%

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

a. i vi d n c dng thu nhp pht sinh c nh Trng hp cc d n c lp ln nhau, d n no c IRR > r : chp nhn d n IRR < r : loi b d n (r : t sut sinh li yu cu)
Trng hp cc d n l loi tr ln nhau:

IRR > r v IRR ln nht

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

V d 1: Cng ty A c mt d n u t ti sn di hn, cn vn u t ban u l 150 triu ng, c thi gian sng l 5 nm. D n c thu nhp hng nm l 40 triu ng. Cng ty c nn u t vo d n ny khng? Bit rng li sut th trng l 10%/nm? V d 2: Mt nh u t A ang xem xt 2 d n u t - D n 1 u t vo thng phiu Cng ty 1 vi vn u t ban u l 500tr, thi hn 5 nm, vic u t ny to ra thu nhp u t mi nm l 180 triu ng. - D n 2 u t vo thng phiu Cng ty 2 vi vn u t ban u l 450tr, thi hn 4 nm, thu nhp u t d kin l 150tr/nm. Nh u t s la chn d n no? Nu li sut s dng vn l 18%/nm?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Vi du1: r1 ->NPV1, r1=10% NPV1= r2: 10,5% -> NPV2= IRR =10,43% : chap nhan du an de dau tu. Vd2: du an 1: r1=23%, r2=24%, IRR1=23,56% Du an 2: r1=21%, r2=22%, IRR2=22,14% NPV du an 1 (18%) = 62,9 NPV du an 2 (18%) = 34,21 Ket luan: NPV du an 1 > NPV du an 2, IRR1> IRR2 -> chon du an 1 de dau tu.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

b. i vi d n c dng thu nhp pht sinh khng u V d: Mt d n u t ban u l 100 triu ng, c thi gian sng l 4 nm. Vi thu nhp d kin hng nm ln lt l 35tr, 50tr, 45tr, 36tr. Tnh li sut u t ca d n?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Lu : Tr s IRR ti thi im 0 cng s l tr s IRR ti bt k thi im no khc trn thang thi gian u t V du: i vi cc d n c lp - Nu thi im bt u khong u t l thi gian gc - Nu thi im bt u khong u t 2 nm l thi gian gc -CFo
-CFo 0 NPV 40 1 40 2 NPV 40 3 40 4 40 5

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

NPV IRR > r, NPV > 0 u t c hiu qu

Li 0

NPV (IRR=0) r

IRR
L IRR < r, NPV < 0 u t khng hiu qu

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Nhc im ca IRR
Nhc im 1: Quan im: IRR > chi ph c hi ca vn u t la chn d n ? V NPV ca d n > 0. Ch ng vi cc d n bnh thng, tc l NPV ca d n gim dn khi li sut tng. Khng phi tt c cc dng tin ca d n u t u c NPV gim khi li sut tng.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

DNG TIN (TRIU USD) D N A B CF0 - 2000 + 2000 CF1 + 3000 - 3000 IRR + 50% + 50% NPV (10%) + 727,72 - 727,72

Mi d n c IRR = 50%, nh vy d n u c sc hp dn nh nhau?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N NPV ($)

200000
IRR B 12 ,3%

100000

10

15

20

25

r%

IRR A 11,5%

S dng IRR thp hn chi ph s dng vn?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Dng tin ($) Nm C CF0 +1530 CF1 -4200 CF2 +4420 CF3 -1850 IRR +14,34% NPV (10%) -25,22

r = 10%, c nn u t vo d n ny?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N NPV ($) 60 40 20 0 -20 20 30 40 50 60 Li sut chit khu r %

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Nhc im 2. IRR a tr Hu ht cc quc gia u cho php mt khong thi gian hon thu, k t lc cng ty c c thu nhp v thi im chnh thc phi np thu. V d: mt cng ty ang c mt d n u t cho mt chin dch qung co. Chin dch ny s mt 1 triu USD vo nm u tin v c kh nng gia tng thu nhp trc thu 300000 USD trong mi nm sau v lin tc trong 5 nm. Gi nh thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip l 50% v thi gian np thu c php hon sau 1 nm. Hy tnh IRR v NPV ca d n?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Dng tin (1000$) Nm CF0 CF1 +300 CF2 +300 CF3 +300 CF4 +300 CF5 +300 CF6

Dng tin -1000 trc thu Thu Dng tin -1000 sau thu

+500 +800

-150 +150

-150 +150

-150 +150

-150 -150

-150 -150

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

IRR = -50% hoc 15,2% NPV (10%) = 74,9 USD Khi li sut chit khu tng, NPV tng v sau gim dn. L do ca vic xut hin 2 gi tr IRR l do dng tin ca d n i du 2 ln. Mt d n u t c dng tin i du bao nhiu ln, th s c th c ti a cng s ln gi tr IRR khc nhau.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N NPV (1000USD)

1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 -25 0 25 Li sut chit khu r %

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Nguyn nhn dng tin c 2 ln i du l do s cho php np chm thu, nhng y khng phi l nguyn nhn duy nht dng tin c th i du. V d nhiu d n phi gnh chu chi ph ln khi ngng hot ng nh d n khai thc m. Nhng d n ny khi ngng hot ng phi tn nhiu chi ph ci to t khi ng ca theo yu cu bo v mi trng. Do vy cc d n khai thc m thng c hai IRR v dng tin ca n b i du 2 ln. Ln th nht trong nm u tin v ln th hai khi kt thc d n.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Dng tin ($) Nm CF0 +1200 CF1 -3000 CF2 +2600 IRR NPV (10%)

Khng c Lun lun dng

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

D n ny khng c IRR v NPV lun lun dng vi bt k mc li sut chit khu no. Tm li: trong nhng trng hp IRR bc l nhng khim khuyt, gii php n gin nht l s dng NPV.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Nhc im 3. Mu thun trong trng hp hai d n loi tr nhau Tiu chun NPV v IRR khng a n kt lun ging nhau. L do dn n kh nng khc nhau - Khc nhau kch c, quy m ca u t - Khc nhau v mu hnh ca dng tin

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

- Khc nhau v quy m u t v mu hnh CF

Dng tin ($) D n A B CF0 -20000 -40000 CF1 11854.25 23708.5 CF2 11854.25 23708.5 NPV (10%) 573.492 1146.938 IRR 12% 12%

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

IRR din t mt t l %, trong khi tnh hnh ti chnh ca doanh nghip c o bng ng tin. Nh vy, IRR ca d n khng l gii c vn , nu xt theo ngha ca gia tng gi tr doanh nghip. NPV c o bng s tin c th, n c th gii thch mt cch trc tip v hiu qu ti chnh ca doanh nghip.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Dng tin ($)

D n CF0 CF1 CF2 CF3 NPV (10%) 4842,22 IRR

-25000

12000

12000

12000

20, 71%

-9000

8000

3000

1000

1503,38

28,25%

X-Y

-16000

4000

9000

11000

3338,84

18,83%

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

NPV ($)
21000 NPVx 9000 6000 IRRx=20.7 NPVy 19.83% 5 10 15 20.7 IRRy=28,25 Li sut chit khu r %

3000
0

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Kt lun: khi mu thun gia hai tiu chun NPV v IRR, th tiu chun NPV s thch hp hn, nu mc tiu ca doanh nghip l ti ha li nhun.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N Nhc im 4. Li sut ngn hn c th khc li sut trong di hn.

- Gi s l chi ph c hi ca vn l ging nhau cho cc dng tin

cc nm. - Kh c th so snh IRR vi r1, r2, r3

-Gi s li sut ngn hn = li sut di hn. B qua yu t li sut

thay i theo thi gian.

-Kt lun: IRR l tiu chun khng d dng s dng nh tiu

chun NPV, nhng nu bit cch s dng ng, IRR s a ra cng 1 kt lun.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

3. Tiu chun PI: Ch s sinh li (PI)c nh ngha nh l gi tr hin ti ca ng tin so vi chi ph u t ban u.

PV PI I NPV I PI I NPV PI I I

PV: gi tr hin ti I : chi ph u t ban u

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Tiu chun PI:

PI v quyt nh chp nhn hay loi b d n
- Trng hp cc d n c lp ln nhau

PI > 1 : chp nhn d n PI < 1 : loi b d n

- Trng hp cc d n loi tr ln nhau

PI > 1 v PI max : chn d n

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

u im ca PI Trong trng hp ngun vn b gii hn, chng ta khng th xp hng u tin cc d n theo tiu chun NPV. Phi xp hng u tin theo t s hin gi cc khon thu nhp trong tng lai so vi vn u t b ra ban u: tiu chun PI.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Dng tin ($) D n A B C CF0 -30 -20 -18 CF1 80 25 -5 CF2 10 40 60 NPV (0.12) 49.40 34.21 25.37 PI 2.647 2.710 2.409

Nu ngun vn b gii hn nm th nht th phng n no b loi b?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Nhc im PI: - Khng gii thch mt cch trc tip s khc nhau v quy m ca d n.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N So snh 3 d n A, B, C
Dng tin ($) D n A B C CF0 -6000 -12000 -6000 CF1 7000 4000 6400 CF2 1000 12000 1800 NPV (10%) 1190 1553 1305 PI 1198 1129 1218 IRR 29.53% 18.05% 29.78%

NPV ? IRR ? i vi cc d n loi tr nhau, s dng ch tiu no ? PI ?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Dng tin ($) D n C D D-C CF0 -200 -20000 -19800 CF1 400 30000 29600 NPV (10%) 163.64 7272.73 7109.09 PI 1.82 1.36 1.36

Ch s sinh li ca khon u t tng thm > 1, nn d n D vn l d n tt.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

4. Tiu chun PBP Thi gian thu hi vn ca d n l khong thi gian thu hi li vn u t ban u. Xt theo tiu chun nh gi thu hi vn, thi gian thu hi vn cng ngn d n u t cng tt.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Thi gian hon vn (PBP) Thi gian hon vn l thi gian dng tin to ra t d n b p chi ph u t ban u. Thi gian hon vn phi thp hn hoc bng thi gian hon vn yu cu hay cn gi l ngng thi gian hon vn. 4.1 Thi gian hon vn khng chit khu
PBP n

NCF
t 0

NCFn1

n s nm dng tin tch ly ca d n <0

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N
V d: thi gian hon vn cho mt d n c dng tin nh sau Nm NCF 0 -500 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200

Thoi gian hoan von 2

500 200 200 200

2 .5

Nu d n c yu cu vn 3 nm th d n c chp nhn. u im: -PBP th hin kh nng thanh khon v ri ro ca d n. Nu thi gian hon vn ngn, thanh khon ca d n cng cao v ri ro i vi vn u t ca d n cng thp. -Nhc im: Khng xem xt dng tin sau thi gian hon vn. Mc khc, ch tiu hon vn khng chit khu khng quan tm n gi tr ca tin theo thi gian.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

4.2. Thi gian hon vn chit khu -Thi gian hon vn c chit khu c tnh ton ging nh cng thc xc nh thi gian hon vn khng chit khu, nhng da vo dng tin c chit khu.
Nm 0 1 2 3 4

NCF T sut chit khu 12%

-500 200 -500 178,57

200 159,44
158,88

200 142,36

200 158,88

Thoi gian hoan von co chiet khau 3

500 178,57 159,44 142,36

3.12

-Nu d n yu cu thi gian hon vn l 3 nm th d n b

bc b

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Nhc im ca PBP: - Tt c cc dng tin pht sinh sau thi gian thu hi vn b b qua hon ton. Nhn xt PBP: - Th nht, PBP gip qun l yu t ri ro khi thm nh d n. - Tiu chun thi gian thu hi vn nn c kt hp vi tiu chun khc nh NPV, IRR khi thm nh d n.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

* u, Nhc im ca thi gian hon vn c chit khu - Thi gian hon vn c chit khu cho nh u t bit c thi gian thu hi vn thc s ca d n (c tnh n yu t gi tr tin t theo thi gian). - Khi gii hn thi gian thu hi vn thch hp c xc nh th dng tin pha sau n s b b qua. - Mt d n c thi gian thu hi vn c chit khu ngn hn ca mt d n khc nhng iu ny khng c ngha l c NPV ln hn.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

So snh cc d n c thi gian hot ng khng bng nhau PP: 1. Phng php chui thay th (Replacement Chain Method) 2. Dng tin u tng ng hng nm (Equivalent annual annuity method - EEA) NPV = EEA*PFIFA(R,n) D n no c EEA cao hn s c la chn.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

D n gn vi quyn chn 1. Quyn chn t b d n trc hn

NPVDuan ( NPVDuantruong * kha nang xay ra TH thuan loi )

hopthuanloi

( NPVDuantruong
hopkhongthuanloi

* kha nn xay ra TH khong thuan loi )

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

V d: Mt doanh nghip ang nghin cu sn xut sn phm mi vi s liu nh sau Nm Dng tin sau thu ca d n TH thun li (75%) 0 1 2 3 4 5 (10000) 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 TH khng thun li (25%) (10000) 1000 600 800 800 800

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Chi ph s dng vn ca d n l 10%. Ban lnh o doanh nghip nhn thy trong trng hp khng thun li, sau khi kt thc 2 nm, doanh nghip c c hi bn li d n v thu c dng tin sau thu l 4.500$ vo cui nm 3. Tnh NPV ca d n trong trng hp d n bn li v khng bn li?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

2. Quyn chn v thi gian thc hin d n 3. Quyn chn m rng sn xut

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Nn s dng ch tiu no ra quyt nh u t ?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N La chn d n trong iu kin gii hn ngn sch: Trong trng hp cng ty c 1 danh mc u t nhng vn b hn ch Trnh t la chn nh sau - Tnh ton ch s PI cho tt c cc d n - Sp xp cc d n theo th t t cao n thp - Bt u t d n c PI cao nht, cc d n s c la chn theo th t cho n khi ton b vn ngn sch u t c dng ht. - Trong trng hp ngn sch vn u t khng dng ht v d n cui cng c vn u t ln hn ngn sch vn u t cn li, ta c 3 phng n la chn:
-

Tm mt t hp d n mi, c th bao gm mt vi d n nh hn, cho php s dng ht ngn sch, nhng NPV cao nht. C gng ni lng rng buc v ngun vn c vn chp nhn d n sau cng. Chp nhn cng nhiu d n cng tt, v u t ngun vn tha vo cc chng khon ngn hn cho n thi on sau, hoc s dng ngun vn tha tr n hoc gim c phiu ang lu hnh.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

V d: Cng ty A ang xem xt la chn cc d n u t trong iu kin hn ch ca ngn sch cng ty nm nay l 32500$ cho vic u t cc d n:
D n A B C D E F G H ICO($) 500 5000 5000 7500 12500 15000 17500 25000 IRR (%) 18 25 37 20 26 28 19 15 NPV ($) 50 6500 5500 5000 500 21000 7500 6000 PI 1.1 2.3 2.1 1.67 1.04 2.40 1.43 1.24

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N
Phng php PI D n c chp nhn F,B,C,D Gi tr gia tng 38000

NPV
IRR D n C0 A B C D -10 -5 -5 0 Dng tin C1 30 5 5 -40

F,G
C,F,E NPV C2 5 20 15 60 21 16 12 13

28.500
27000 PI 2.1 3.2 3.4 0.4

Nu gii hn ngn sch l 10 triu ?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Thng k % gim c ti chnh cc cng ty ln s dng cc phng php thm nh d n u t khc nhau
Lun lun hoc thng xuyn s dng (%) NPV IRR PP DPP PI Cc phng php khc 74,9 75,6 56,7 29,5 11,9 30,3

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

T l thng k % cc cng ty a quc gia ln trn th gii s dng cc phng php thm nh d n u t khc nhau
S dng chnh Phng php PP Phng php IRR Phng php NPV Phng php khc Tng cng 5% 65,3% 16,5% 13,2% 100% S dng ph tr 37,6% 14,6% 30% 17,8% 100%

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Hoch nh ngn sch vn ti u Quy trnh xc nh ngn sch u t ti u nh sau: Bc 1: Tnh WACC khi c u t mi Bc 2: Chn cc d n u t c hiu qu cao IRR > WACC Bc 3: Sp xp cc d n c IRR gim dn v chia nhm theo tnh cht d n (c lp, ph thuc, xung khc) Bc 4: Khi c nhu cu u t mi cn xem gi s dng ca tng ngun vn tng thm c thay i khng, nu c, tnh gi s dng vn bin t WMCC v im gy BP, so snh WMCC v IRR ca d n. Nu IRR > WMCC th chp nhn d n mi, ngc li th loi b.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

V d: Cng ty c phn A c ti liu nh sau V c cu vn ti u - Vay 2,5 t ng vi li sut 12%/nm - Vn c phn thng: 6,3 t ng, ngun ny c chi ph vn 14% - Li li: 1,2 t ng, ngun ny c chi ph vn l 14%. Khi nhu cu u t cng ty tng thm cng ty s dng li li ti tr, nu thiu s vay ngn hng. Ngn hng s cho vay m bo c cu vn trn, nhng nu tng s vn vay (trc v sau u t mi) vt qu 4 t ng th li sut tin vay s l 13,6%. Mc khc, nu pht hnh thm c phiu mi th chi ph pht hnh d kin 12,5% so vi gi pht hnh. - Thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip l 25%.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Bi tp 1: Trnh by cch tnh v nu ngha kinh t ca cc ch tiu NPV v IRR khi phn tch hiu qu u t d n. Bi tp 2: Gii thch ti sao chng ta nn u t khi sut sinh li ni b (IRR) ln hn hoc bng chi ph s dng vn trung bnh (WACC)?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Bi tp 4: Mt c s qut my, mi nm sn xut 200000 sn phm. Hin nay cng ty phi i mua cnh qut t bn ngoi v lp rp, gi mi ci l 2$. Gim c tin rng nu c s t sn xut cnh qut th s li hn i mua ngoi. Chi ph sn xut trc tip d kin l 1.5$ mi cnh qut. Chi ph mua thit b l 150000$, d nh khu hao trong 7 nm theo phng php khu hao theo ng thng. Thit b ny s c s dng trong 10 nm. Gim c c tnh nhu cu vn lu ng cng s cn thm mi nm l 30000$. Nu thu thu nhp cng ty 35% v chi ph c hi vn l 15%, bn c ng h d n ny ca gim c hay khng? Hy nu r nhng gi nh nu cn thit.

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Bi tp 5: Mt cng ty ch bin thy sn xut khu ang xem xt u t mt dy chuyn sn xut mi. Vn u t cho dy chuyn ny l 700000$ nm 0 v 1 triu $ nm 1. Sau khi xem xt tt c cc yu t lin quan, cng ty c tnh dng tin thu c l 250000$ vo nm th hai, 300000$ vo nm th ba, 350000 vo nm th t v 400000$ cho nhng nm tip theo. Mc d dy chuyn sn xut vn cn c th hot ng sau 10 nm nhng cng ty thn trng nn ch tnh dng tin n nm th 10. a. Nu t sut li nhun i hi l 15%, hin gi thun ca d n l bao nhiu? Nn chp nhn hay t b d n? b. Sut sinh li ni b ca d n l bao nhiu?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

c. Kt qu ca cu a thay i nh th no nu t sut li nhun i hi l 10%? d. Nu dng tiu chun thi gian hon vn ca d n l 7 nm xem xt th c nn u t d n ny khng? e. Nu dng tiu chun thi gian hon vn chit khu ca d n l 7.5 nm xem xt, vi sut chit khu l 10%, th c nn u t d n ny khng?

NH GI V QUYT NH U T D N

Bi tp 6: Bn ang xem xt u t vo hai d n, mi d n i hi vn u t 15 triu ng. Bn d on 2 d n ny s to ra ngn lu rng nh sau:

Nm 1 2 3 D n A (triu ng) 5 10 20 D n B (triu ng) 20 10 6

Xc nh NPV ca mi d n nu bit chi ph s dng vn ca bn l 15%. Nu hai d n ny l hai d n loi tr nhau, bn s u t vo d n no.