Professional Documents
Culture Documents
m: Dustin Ingalls,
I
Asssistant Direector
To: Interested
I
parties
Subjject: Kasich
h, Mandel in real dan
nger
Datee: 11/12/201
13
In head-to-head matchups
m
wiith their likelly opponentss next fall, bboth Gov. Johhn Kasich,
who narrowly
n
ou
usted Ted Strrickland in 2010, and Treeausrer Joshh Mandel, whho lost a bidd
for U.S.
U Senate so
oundly last fall,
f are bareely above 40% of the votte against litttle-known
Demo
ocratic oppo
onents. In faact, Mandel already
a
trailss state Rep. C
Connie Pillich, and
Kasicch can only tie
t Cuyahoga County Ex
xecutive Ed F
FitzGerald.
Kasicchs job apprroval numbeers are pretty
y weak. 37%
% approve annd 42% disappprove of hiis
job performance, similar to th
he 42-47 sprread we founnd in Augustt. Only seveen of the 29
goverrnors runnin
ng for re-elecction next yeear are in woorse shape, pputting him inn the top
third in terms of vulnerability
v
y. Six of tho
ose seven bellow Kasich in their voteers eyes are
Repu
ublicans.
Hurtiing Kasich most
m is that his
h own basee is not stronngly behind hhim. Only 555% of
Repu
ublicans apprrove, and 26% disapprov
ve of the wo rk he is doinng. Normallly,
incum
mbents in solid shape forr re-election, especially tthose who w
want to fend off primary
challeenges, shoulld have approvals in the 75-80% rannge with theirr own partisans, if not
betterr. Perhaps th
hat is why Kasich
K
has drrawn not onlly a strong D
Democratic cchallenger
but allso a Libertaarian opponeent.
That Libertarian, Charlie Earrl, draws 6% of the vote,, including 11% of indeppendents,
holdiing Kasich to
o a 41% tie with
w FitzGerrald. FitzGeerald unites hhis party (wiith 72% of
their support) mo
ore than Kasiich does his (68%).
ndel by four points, 47-4
43. She earnns more of thhe GOP vote, at 18%,
Pillicch leads Man
than Mandel
M
doess of Democrrats (12%), part
p of the reeason she holds her partyy together
(85%
%) considerab
bly more thaan Mandel do
oes his (72%
%). Pillich haas a 12-poinnt lead with
women (50-38), helping
h
to co
ounteract Maandels slighht lead with m
men (48-45)).
PPP surveyed
s
595 Ohio voters from
f
Novemb
ber 5th to 6th. The margin oof error is +/--4.0%. This
poll was
w sponsored
d by the Ohio Democratic Party.
Pho
one: 888 621-6988
Web
b: www.public
cpolicypolling .com
Ema
ail: informatio
on@publicpoliicypolling.com
m
Q5
Disapprove..............42%
Q2
Republican...................................................... 36%
Independent/Other .......................................... 25%
Q6
Q3
Q4
Ed FitzGerald.................................................. 41%
Other............................................................... 6%
Q7
Crosstabs
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an
Base Wom an
Man
Kasich/FitzGerald/Earl
Kasich Approval
Approve 37%
35%
39%
Disapprove 42%
41%
43%
24%
17%
37%
44%
Ed FitzGerald 41%
42%
39%
6%
6%
6%
14%
11%
Charlie Earl
Party
Gender
Base Wom an
Man
Man
Kasich Approval
Mandel/Pillich
Approve 37%
16%
55%
43%
38%
48%
Disapprove 42%
59%
26%
39%
50%
45%
25%
19%
18%
12%
7%
Party
Party
Mandel/Pillich
15%
68%
41%
Ed FitzGerald 41%
72%
14%
32%
6%
4%
5%
11%
10%
14%
15%
Charlie Earl
12%
72%
48%
85%
18%
33%
4%
10%
19%
Crosstabs
Race
Race
Kasich Approval
Approve 37%
39%
17%
55%
Disapprove 42%
42%
49%
30%
19%
34%
16%
44%
15%
51%
Ed FitzGerald 41%
37%
69%
31%
6%
6%
4%
5%
13%
12%
13%
Charlie Earl
Age
Race
AfricanBase White Am erican Other
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Kasich Approval
Mandel/Pillich
Josh Mandel 43%
46%
18%
44%
Approve 37%
26%
33%
38%
44%
43%
79%
39%
Disapprove 42%
51%
48%
41%
35%
10%
2%
17%
23%
20%
21%
21%
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Kasich/FitzGerald/Earl
37%
40%
39%
46%
Ed FitzGerald 41%
40%
38%
43%
39%
6%
6%
10%
5%
5%
17%
13%
13%
11%
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Mandel/Pillich
Charlie Earl
Base
37%
53%
42%
41%
57%
38%
49%
48%
6%
10%
10%
11%