Lesson

Learning Area Outcomes

Outcomes: Define experiment, outcome, event, probability. Connect the symbolic representation of a probability to an experiment Recognize the difference between outcomes that are equally likely and not equally likely to occur

Teaching & Learning Objectives/Experiences/Content

What students are doing/learning/demonstrating/engaging activities? Introduction to Probability Introduce and define chance. Ascertain that we see chance everyday. Key words Probability, Chance, Experiment Clip from Numb3rs (Heads and Tails) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPjGEmzECpg Where is chance found in the clip?How? Draw Equally likely Number line on the board (Impossible, Unlikely, Equal chance, Likely, Certain). Discuss Likelihood of rain in Perth In summer, winter. Where would they place X. What about other cities? Using ipads built in weather app. Groups of 5 choose and discuss 2 other cities in Australia and 3 in the northern hemisphere and the chance of rain at this point in time relative to the rest. Activity What is the likelihood of an event occurring?Matching probabilities with chance. Divide into 5 groups Assign students 1 situation from number line. Brainstorm in group events that have their probability of occuring in the next day. Place these on their groups number line in DRAW on ipad Discuss findings > Probability refers to the chance of something happening. The probability of an event occurring must be a number between 0 and 1. On interactive whiteboard P = number of successful events/total possible number of events. This can be expressed as a fraction, decimal or percentage. Example of a coin toss. When we toss a coin what are all possible combinations we can toss? Students can refer to www.random.org/coins/? To simulate coin toss. Using a spidescribe for students to demonstrate possible outcomes of one coin toss. Explain and assign probability for each branch. Now demonstrate for 2 coin tosses. Using class involvement workout P(HH). Give definitions for outcome, event. Activity Using a systematic approach -What are all possible outcomes of an event? In pairs Students to complete spidescribe for all possible outcomes of P (HH) for various exercises on virtual worksheet Give answers, discuss findings Conclusion What is probability and how is it used? What is the equation? What are key terms? To add to blog entry a spidescribe diagram of P (HHH) with probability of each and website for coin toss. Introduce next lesson Complement and Bias REMTAG: REM More fundamental tree diagram with singular event TAG Questions with more complex diagrams for activity Probability and Bias. Complement of an Event. Introduction Recap Introduction lesson. What do we know about probability? (From Previous lesson) Multi choice quiz on schoology (www.schoology.com) 10 questions around Probability, Outcome and Events. Students and teacher receives immediate feedback as to how they go. Students to provide definitions and examples for Probability, event and outcome. Affirming all students agree to these definitions before moving on. Using equation for probability for last lesson we are going to explore the probability of events and outcomes in different theoretical situations. - Look at situations where an outcome is more likely than

Resources
What they will use? Interactive Whiteboard Ipad (Weather App) DRAW (ipad app) Spiderscribe for probability diagrams http://www.spiderscri be.net (This lesson assumes students know how to use spidescribe from previous lessons) Coin toss www.random.org/coi ns/? Students Journal their learnings in a blog updated each lesson on blogspot References to: http://www.bom.gov. au/lam/Students_Te achers/climprob/less on3.htm Interactive Whiteboard www.schoology.com www.mathplaygroun d.com/probability.ht ml

Assessment
How achievement will be judged? How results will be recorded? Informal Groupwork participation Answering questions Spidescribe tree diagram successfully entered into blog Students will use Coneqt.s or schoology (www.schoology.com) or the online equivalent for assessments/setting objectives and interactivity. Students submit samples of work to be included in a portfolio for completion at the end of the year. On completion Portfolio will be judged on a marking rubric with qualitative and quantitative aspects regarding students performance, growth and effort. Will be worth 15% of year mark.

Identify complementary events and use the sum of probabilities to solve problems (ACMSP204) Outcomes: Describe the formula for finding the probability of the complement on an

Informal Worksheet Completion To what degree do they understand Bias and how we get complements of events? Answering questions Student receive immediate feedback on how they went and which areas they need more understanding on. These cumulate in feedback to the

event Examine experiments in which the complement of an event is determined and its probability is computed Appreciate that bias occurs in events and what it means for a game to be fair

Define Theoretical and Experimental Probability Explain the difference between Theoretical and Experimental Probability Appreciate that the difference between Theoretical and Experimental probability causes error

Identify complementary

another and also the complement of an event. Introduce, define and give examples of situation where Bias occurs. Activity What happens to probability when we have a biased event? Individually students to Design Spinners using Designing Spinners www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/BasicSpinner/ Students to design 4 of their own spinners and spin them giving data ** NOT to fill out experimental and theoretical data columns will come back to that next lesson (Students to put one of their spinners in their blog) Give answers, discuss findings. Larger coloured areas have a greater chance of happening. What happens when the opposite of an event occurs? Introduce and explain the Complement of an event. Give formula. Using Primary Pad students to brainstorm in groups 3 events and their complements eg (heads is the event; complement is tails. If hearts is the event the complement is spades, clubs and diamonds etc) Activity Using probability equations - How do we find the complement of an event Students to complete Complement questions on worksheet Conclusion what is biased? What is complement? Next lesson will be experimenting with the language learned and what happens in different sample spaces and games of chance REMTAG: REM Questions without Bias TAG: Create a spinner with more complicate bias. Complete Question 13 on Algebra 2 worksheet (Using the complement) Theoretical Vs Experimental Differences Introduction Recap on last lesson and experiments. Discuss blog question. What do they think would happen if we repeated card draw for *100? What about the coin toss? Introduce and define terms - theoretical and experimental probability. Give examples of Sample errors. Model an Experiment (Flipping a coin and throwing a die) with online simulation through hotmaths. Find Theoretical Probability with class, write equation of whitboard P(Heads) = P(6) =1/6. P(heads and 6) = *1/6 = 1/12 Using computer simulation, conduct 24 trials. Ask students what they see. Now conduct 240 trials, now 24000. Ask them what they see now? As the number of events increases probability gives an expected outcomes, not necessarily produced in practise. Confirm Theoretical probability does not equal experimental probability but generally close. Being close but not equal means we miss out on some data, but lets us work out the probability of happening without conducting so many experiments. Activity What is the difference between theory and experiment? What do we need to do to mak e this difference smaller? Students to pair up and complete the spinner activity from last lesson but filling in both experimental and theoretical columns http://www.shodor.org/interactiveate/activities/BasicSpinner/ Give answers Conclusion Theoretical probability and Experimental probability are not equal though they are generally close. We need to perform more experiments to get the Exp probability closer to Theoretical. Blog Entry Question Brainstorm 5 * real life examples where population samples and experiments may be used. To provide a video link to one real experiment. REMTAG REM: Answer questions with only 1 probable outcome TAG: Investigate possible combinations of a genotype using punnet square Maths of Lotto (Class running over 2 lessons)

Create spinners on http://www.shodor.or g/interactiveate/activ ities/BasicSpinner/ Primary Pad http://primarypad.co m

teacher who receives the results for all students who have attempted the test allowing them to see common misunderstandings. Write words Probability, Outcome, Event on interactive whiteboard; using directive questioning

Worksheet http://www.pearsons uccessnet.com/eboo k/workbooks/0-13068323-X/0-131222414/DAEXPPRO.pdf Access to Hotmaths computer simulation http://www.shodor.or g/interactiveate/activ ities/BasicSpinner/

Informal Completion of worksheet: Grasp understanding of differences between Theoretical and Experimental probability Answering questions Blog Entry

Interactive Whiteboard

Informal

events and use the sum of probabilities to solve problems (ACMSP204) Use real games of chance to confirm predictions Apply concepts of probability to work out chance in real world example

Recap last lesson Define, compare and contrast Theoretical and Experimental Probability. Discuss findings from blog entry question. Each student to view another 2 students blogs and update their list to include 2 of their classmates examples. Leads into the Lottery as being a real-life probable game of chance with definable probability. Introduce Lotto as a game of chance. Dating back to financing great wall of China. Show video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRGwI1XlsHE Ask students knowledge of various lotto games. Qns > Do you think players understand true chances of wnning a prize when they play? Do you think this is fair? Give students 2 minutes in pairs to research chances of winning lottery in WA/Aus/USA and write findings in primary pad Demonstrate a 6:2 version of lotto so all students share understanding. Writing numbers 1 6 on board and circling winning numbers http://mathcrusaders.weebly.com/quest-4.html Activity Maths of Lotto Estimating Chance Important to gauge range of students initial perceptions. We are about to play a simpler lotto game sometimes you win, sometimes you do not. What do you think your chances of winning are? Suppose we played 100 times - How many times would they win? Record student guesses on board. Approx Average. Playing 10 Games and recording results (whole class) Students to predict 2 numbers drawn (outcomes) for each of 10 games, record. Play 10 games. Students to draw 2 blocks. Record winning numbers (event) on board and number of winners per Game. Reward winning students as their numbers are called. Analysing game results and checking perceptions (are they different?) Count number of games played (22 students * 10 games) Calclulate winning %. Compare with expectations (much less than prediction) Use computer simulation (Maths 300) to extrapolate to 220 games. Results close to class results? Explaining the real chances in lotto (Are they equally likely?) Students to use spidescribe to record all possible pairs. 15 possible pairs and each pair has the same chance as any other of being drawn. So chances of a win are 1 in 15. Conclusion Reflect on learnings today. Give students time to jot down points in their blog around Chances of winning lotto Home work Keeping the names anonymous ask 2 adults whether they have ever purchased a lotto ticket and how often?

Software from Software library (Maths 300) You tube History of Lotto http://www.youtube. com/watch?v=VRG wI1XlsHE Spiderscribe http://www.spiderscri be.net Primary Pad http://primarypad.co m Ipads http://mathcrusaders .weebly.com/quest4.html

Are they actively engaged in class discussion. Are they providing answers when questioned?

For portfolio Students to complete Maths in Lotto reflection worksheet by end of week Assume this is lesson 2 in 4 lesson week, worksheet to be handed in during lesson 4.