To:

Citizens United Political Victory Fund

From: Kellyanne Conway, the polling company, inc./WomanTrend Date: April 7, 2014 Re: VA-10 Firehouse Primary Analysis Memo ____________________________________________________________________ The Virginia 10th Firehouse Republican Primary is Barbara Comstocks to lose. She is both well-liked and best-known in the field. With the exception of Marshall, her competitors each have a majority of likely primary voters who either have never heard of them or have no opinion of the candidate. Comstocks State Assembly District (34), comprises a small portion of Virginia 10. Her strong reputation as a conservative, along with her skills as a campaigner have given her a strong lead in the few remaining weeks of this firehouse primary. She is the clear front-runner as she has a 6-to-1 favorable to unfavorable rating (57%9%), and she appeals to Republican primary voters of every stripe. These groups include: Conservatives 57% Moderates 62% Libertarians 64% Tea Party Republicans 56% Independents 51% 70% 60% 50%
57% 57% 58% 61% 64%

40%
30% 20% 10% 0%
Comstock
9% 9% 4% 24% 27%

40% 27% 20% 13% 4% 15% 6% 2% 7% 3% 5% 21%

26%

24%

Marshall

Hollingshead

Lind

Savitt

Wasinger

Total Fav

Total Unfav

Heard of No Opinion

Never Heard Of

By region of the Virginia 10 district, Comstocks largest areas of support include Fairfax, Frederick, and Loudon Counties. These are also the counties expected to have the greatest voter turnout as they proved to be in the 2012 re-election of Frank Wolf.
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend Citizens United Political Victory Fund Survey Results VA-10 Firehouse Primary April 2014

60% 40% 20%

56% 43% 33% 28% 18% 13% 7% 2% 3% 1% 5% 3% 5% 8% 3% 6% 3% 3% 1% 3% 3% 0% 0% 3%

0%
Fairfax
Comstock

Frederick
Marshall Hollingshead

Loudoun
Lind Savitt

Prince William
Wasinger

*Please Note Only Counties in the district yielding above 5% of completed interviews are included.*

BALLOT TEST
If the Republican firehouse primary to decide the Partys nominee for the Tenth US Congressional District was tomorrow, would you vote for (ROTATED) Rob Wasinger, Marc Savitt, Howie Lind, Stephen Hollingshead, Bob Marshall, or Barbara Comstock? BARBARA COMSTOCK BOB MARSHALL BOB WASINGER STEPHEN HOLLINGSHEAD HOWIE LIND MARC SAVITT UNDECIDED 44% 10% 3% 3% 3% 1% 30%

Beyond Comstocks impressive 34% lead in the ballot test, perhaps even more impressive is Comstocks large advantages among each type of Republican primary voter. As one can see in the graph below, pluralities across the Republican spectrum have voiced their intention to vote for her in the upcoming primary. With roughly three weeks remaining until the firehouse primary date, and her competitors with little name recognition, it is difficult to see any of them turning the 30% undecided into decisive voters for their candidacy. Comstocks diligent work in the State Assembly has paid dividends among Virginia 10 Republicans and appears to have them hoping she can do the same in the U.S. House.
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
11% 11% 7%5% 9% 49% 45% 42% 44% 32%

6% 2%2%

9% 3%4% 4% 1% 5%3% 2% 2%1%2%2%0% 3%4%5%2%

Comstock

Marshall

Hollingshead

Lind GOP

Savitt

Wasinger

Conservative

Moderate

Tea Party GOP

Independent

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend Citizens United Political Victory Fund Survey Results VA-10 Firehouse Primary April 2014