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The Spark
(914) 381-6300 F (914) 381-6303 December 4, 2009

EPA Memo-Cogen’s Energy Price Commentary & Technical Research

atural Gas & Electricity

Over the past two weeks we have seen little change in the prices for Natural Gas or Electricity. The front month Natural Gas contract
on NYMEX switched to January and our new price target is 3.40 for the January contract with the last trade at 4.58

Quietly we have seen some rather significant developments in the Natural Gas market. Last month Qatar made their first NG ship-
ment to the US in a year and a half. Qatar is the most efficient producer of NG in the world, and made infrastructure production com-
mitments years ago when NG was 3 times the prices it is now. Qatar will increase NG production by 43% by the end of 2010 and
they have nowhere else to ship their gas than to the U.S. They have taken out multiple storage contracts on U.S. soil. Couple this
with the fact that US reserves are now 39% higher than they were two years ago, we at "The Spark" do not see worldwide demand
outpacing supply until 2012-2013 at the earliest.

As we said two weeks ago before the holiday, we have seen no indication that a bottom has been put in place in either a technical or
fundamental basis, therefore we continue to recommend to our customers a variable vs. fixed energy product.

Natural Gas Strip Current Price* Price Target

6 Month 4.75 3.4
12 Month 5.07 3.8
24 Month 5.64 4.6

PJM Electric Strip Current Price* Price Target

6 Month 4.68¢ 3.7
12 Month 5.06¢ 4.1
24 Month 5.41¢ 4.6

Natural Gas 12 Month Strip

*prices are a snapshot at time of composition. Price changes are on a publication over publication change.

This Newsletter is authored by Michael E. Mollin. Michael E. Mollin is the principal of M.E. Mollin & Company LLC a Registered Investment Advisor in
New York State. The information contained herein is believed to be reliable, however, Energy Portfolio Associates ("EPA") and M.E. Mollin & Company
LLC ("MEM") do not warrant it's completeness or accuracy. Quotes are estimates and are not guaranteed by either EPA or MEM. Neither EPA or MEM is
acting as your advisor and the decision to proceed with any transaction rest solely with you. Copyright 2009, M.E. Mollin & Company, LLC