Seven House Races to Watch This Fall

By Caitlin Huey-Burns - August 7, 2014

Campaigns for the U.S. Senate are sucking up most of the political oxygen this year. And rightfully so: After November,
the upper chamber could change from Democratic control to Republican. House races, on the other hand, dont appear to be
all that significant as Democrats stand little chance of netting the 17 seats required to give the speakers gavel back to
Nancy Pelosi.

But even if control of the House isnt really in play, there are still several districts worth paying attention to. Congressional
campaigns often provide insight into the nations political temperature, and some races will illustrate Republicans
advances or troubles with Latino voters, or Democrats turnout challenges in swing districts. This cycle could produce the
GOPs first African-American congresswoman -- or the partys third openly gay congressman. It will also determine the
fate of the last white Democratic congressman from the Deep South.

With most primaries now over, the competitive contests are starting to heat up with less than 90 days to go until Election
Day. Here are seven to watch:

COLORADO-6: The Pricey One

This Denver area district is home to one of the most expensive and contested House races of the 2014 cycle. Republican
Rep. Michael Coffman is vying for re-election in a district thats now 20 percent Latino. Coffman has moderated his
stances on immigration to fit his constituency, backing a citizenship pathway for the children of undocumented immigrants
after previously opposing it.

Coffman won re-election in 2012 by four percentage points. This year, he faces former state House speaker Andrew
Romanoff, who moved last year to Aurora. In 2010, Romanoff lost a bitter primary battle against Democratic Sen. Michael
Bennet, and is now hoping to make it to Congress through the 6th District.

President Obama carried the district by five points in 2012, but Republicans have held the seat for three decades. This local
race has become a battle of national party messaging. Coffman has equated a vote for his opponent with a vote to make
Nancy Pelosi speaker again. Romanoff is painting Coffman as part of the problem with gridlock and spending in
Washington.

The two candidates have raised nearly $3.5 million each. Coffman has spent $1 million so far, and Romanoff $775,000.
The race is considered a tossup heading into Election Day, and is a top target for Democrats hoping to pick up seats in a
difficult cycle.

UTAH-4: The First Black GOP Congresswoman?

This cycle is Mia Loves second chance at making history. The former Saratoga Springs mayor is a rising GOP star and a
top recruit for a party hoping to diversify. In 2012, Love challenged Rep. Jim Matheson, a moderate Democrat who had
managed to hold the 4th District seat even against previous GOP tides. Love gave a much-acclaimed speech at the Tampa
convention in 2012, but went on to lose to Matheson that fall by just under 800 votes.

Last year, Love announced she would take on Matheson again. The increasingly favorable GOP climate and the presidents
lagging numbers were expected to be helpful, and Matheson -- one of the few Blue Dog Democrats left in Congress --
decided to retire. His impending exit all but ensures a Republican takeover of the seat he has held for 15 years.

Love will face Democratic attorney Doug Owens in November. If she wins -- and the district leans heavily Republican --
Love will become the partys first African-American woman in Congress.

GEORGIA-12: The Last of the Deep South White Democrats

That title has become a familiar one for John Barrow. The five-term congressman is the only remaining white Democrat in
the Deep South -- a reflection of the regions ideological realignment. Southern white Democrats were a robust and
powerful group in Congress for most of this countrys history. Now they are on the brink of extinction.

Barrow is the last one standing in the House. His voting record helps explain why. He opposed the Affordable Care Act in
2009, a bill that later doomed many of his Blue Dog colleagues, and also voted against the Waxman-Markey clean energy
bill know as Cap and Trade.

Barrow is a throwback on culture war issues, too. In 2011, he voted to uphold the Defense of Marriage Act. And last
cycle, he ran a campaign ad in which he held his grandfathers Smith & Wesson handgun and his fathers rifle to tout an
endorsement from the NRA. These are my guns now, he says in the ad. And aint nobody going to take them away.

That 2012 race was supposed to bring about Barrows defeat. But he survived a Republican challenge that year in the
Augusta-area district by nearly eight points, even as Mitt Romney won it by 12. That year, he faced an expensive primary
challenge from a black state senator who opposed Barrows position on health care, a sign of the demographic and
ideological shifts in the area.

This cycle figures to be another difficult one for Barrow, given the GOP-favored climate. His opponent is Republican
businessman Rick Allen, who will paint the incumbent as a longtime professional politician who contributes to Washington
gridlock. Republicans are already hitting Barrow for opposing a full repeal of the health care law, even though he opposed
its original passage. Barrows pitch is one of bipartisanship, similar to other hard-pressed Democrats running in districts
carried in 2012 by Mitt Romney.

NEW MEXICO-2: The Conservative Latino Whisperer

If a white, conservative Republican representing a district in a state on the beleaguered U.S.-Mexico border -- in which
more than half of the population is Latino -- sounds like a rare breed in Congress, well, it is. And Steve Pearce is often a
target for Democrats hoping to pick up seats. But Pearce has won the district, which is basically made up of the southern
half of New Mexico, five times, taking over 40 percent of the Latino vote -- more than what Latina Republican Gov.
Susanna Martina has taken and doubling Mitt Romneys share.

Pearce is unabashedly conservative, even on immigration policy. He voted against the DREAM Act and opposes
Obamacare. He is against abortion rights and gay marriage. He has opposed critical fiscal deals in Congress and has even
opposed John Boehner as House speaker. And he supports drug tests for those on welfare. But his constituent service
appears to make the difference with voters in his district, as detailed last year by the Wall Street Journal.

He is the only Republican in the New Mexico congressional delegation -- and the only Republican to represent a border
district in Congress. In 2012, Pearce won by 19 points. And both John McCain and Mitt Romney carried the district in the
past two presidential cycles.

Still, given its growing Hispanic population, Democrats see this seat as one they can flip -- if not now, then eventually.
Eddy County Commissioner Roxanne Lara is challenging Pearce.

Without Pearce, the Democrats chances in this district would look good. When Pearce left the House to run for the U.S.
Senate in 2008, a Democrat succeeded him. Pearce lost to now-Sen. Tom Udall by a wide margin. But he came back for his
old House seat in 2010 and beat the Democrat by 10 points, taking 42 percent of the Latino vote. If Pearce wins again and
continues his margins among Latino voters, his tenure could serve as a lesson for Republicans trying to reach this rapidly
growing demographic group.

NEW HAMPSHIRE-1: The Flip-Flopper

Election results in New Hampshires 1st Congressional District over the past decade induce a bout of whiplash.

In 2006, Carol Shea-Porter became the first Democrat to win the seat in 25 years. That same year, Democrats took control
of the House in a wave election. But four years later, Shea-Porter lost her seat to Republican Frank Guinta. And that year,
the GOP won back the House is a historic fashion. Shea-Porter regained her old seat in 2012 by just under four percentage
points.

This district, which consists of the eastern half of the state, is among the most competitive in the country. So its no surprise
that Shea-Porters congressional fate will again be tested. Republicans dont yet have an official candidate, as the primary is
not until Sept. 9. But Guinta is among those gunning for the seat. RealClearPolitics rates the race a tossup. If recent history
is indicative, this district could be a national bellwether.

ARIZONA-2: The Democrats Turnout Problem

Ron Barber is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the House this cycle. He is also no stranger to congressional races:
This year marks his third run in two years.

Barber carries with him a somber legacy. As a staffer for former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, he was wounded in the Tucson
shooting of 2011 that nearly claimed his bosss life. When Giffords decided to leave office in 2012, she asked Barber to run
for her seat. He won a special election to replace Giffords that June. And in November, he won a full term -- but just barely.
Republican challenger Martha McSally, a former Air Force pilot, came within a percentage point of beating Barber.

McSally is running again in November, and the seat is a top target for Republicans. This time, Barbers path to victory is
even narrower than before. Without the presidential race to help boost Democratic turnout, this contest illustrates the
challenge for endangered Democrats in a midterm year. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced a
robust ground game and voter expansion effort in several districts, including Barbers, aimed at mitigating their midterm
turnout disadvantage. Barber recently co-sponsored a paycheck fairness bill intended to increase participation among
women and other base voters.

This contest figures to draw outside money. McSally outraised Barber last quarter, and remains competitive financially.
This is considered a swing district, however, which Romney won by just two points.

CALIFORNIA-52: An Openly Gay Republican Congressman?

Democratic Rep. Scott Peters is facing a tough challenge from San Diego businessman Carl DeMaio in Californias 52nd
Congressional District. The two share some similarities: Both candidates previously served on the San Diego City Council.
Both men have also stressed their moderate credentials in the swing district, while describing their opponent as out of touch
with constituents' needs.

If elected, DeMaio would become the third openly gay Republican to serve in Congress and the first to feature a same-sex
partner in his campaign literature.

(Actually, DeMaio could become one of three openly gay Republicans in Congress next year. Former Massachusetts state
Sen. Richard Tisei, who is also pro-abortion rights, is challenging Democrat John Tierney in the Bay States 6th
Congressional District for the second time in two years. Just one percentage point separated Tisei from Tierney in the
Gloucester-area district last cycle. A non-presidential year in this blue state could benefit Tisei. And in New Hampshire,
former businesses school dean Dan Innis is running a long shot campaign for the GOP nomination to challenge Shea-Porter
in New Hampshires 1st District. Like Tisei, Innis is married.)

DeMaio has also proven to be a fundraising powerhouse, taking in more than $600,000 in the second quarter of 2014.
Peters, however, is a proven candidate who defeated Rep. Brian Bilbray in 2012, the same year DeMaio lost his bid for San
Diego mayor. The 52nd District also leans slightly Democratic, helping Peters. Public polling on the race is sparse, but a
June survey showed DeMaio leading by seven percentage points.

Sean Trende and Adam ONeal contributed to this report.










Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/08/07/seven_house_races_to_watch_this_fall_123586.html