Tropical Cyclone Rainfall over Puerto

Rico and its relations to Environmental

and Storm Specific Factors
Jos J. Hernndez Ayala
PhD Student
Department of Geography
University of Florida

Objectives and Importance

Understand how environmental and storm specific factors affect TC
rainfall over Puerto Rico.
Identify the most important factors that cause TC rainfall variability.
Heavy rainfall from tropical depression Isabel in October of 1985
triggered one of the deadliest mudslide events in North American
history killing 130 people (Jibson, 1989; Larsen and Simon, 1993).

TC Tracks 1970-2010

Problem Statement
Which factors or conditions affect tropical cyclone rainfall variability over
the island of Puerto Rico?

Intensity?
Horizontal Translation Speed?
Environmental Moisture?
Proximity to Storm Center?
Vertical Wind Shear?
Storm Center Location?
Storm Duration?

Literature on TCs and Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico is subject to frequent and severe impacts from Hurricanes (Dunn and Miller
1964, Simpson & Riehl 1981, Diaz & Pulwarty 1997).

The frequency with which a tropical cyclone passes directly over Puerto Rico is
small
(Scatena and Larsen, 1991).

A comprehensive study of hurricanes in P.R based on meteorological principles

and the historical record is lacking (Boose, Serrano &Foster 2004).
Storm rainfall totals of 500 mm are common for hurricanes in Puerto Rico (Riehl, 1979).

Some Caribbean storms have reportedly produced more than 2000 mm (Gupta, 1988).

Area of Study
Puerto Rico is located 18.5
N & 66.5 W.
The total population of the
island is approximately 3.7
million.

Rainfall over Puerto Rico

Data Sources
Daily Rainfall from 32 rain gauges in mm (NCDC)
Tropical Cyclone Tracks from 1970-2010 (IBTrACS)
Daily Environmental Variables (NCEP/NCAR)
Puerto Rico Digital Elevation Model (USGS)

Methods
Tracks within 500 km of PR were selected with a GIS.

86 TCs were identified using this parameters.

Daily rainfall data for each specific period for each TC was obtained.
An averaged total rainfall value for all 32 stations was calculated for each TC.

Data for 12-24 hr. for one day, add up other days with 12 hr. >
Independent variables were measured using the same parameters used for rainfall,

Variables
Table 1. Storm specific characteristics and environmental factor variables used in this study.
Storm Specific Factors

Abbreviation

Units

Circulation Center Latitude

LAT

Circulation Center Longitude

LON

Proximity to Storm Center

PRX

km

Storm Duration

DUR

hrs.

Maximum Sustained Winds

VMX

ms-1

Horizontal Translation Speed

HTS

ms-1

Environmental Factors

Abbreviation

Units

Total Precipitable Water

TPW

mm

Mid-level Relative Humidity (Avg. 500-700 hPa)

MRH

Wind Shear (850-200 hPa) West To East

WSU

%
ms-1

Wind Shear (850-200 hPa) South To North

WSV

ms-1

TC Tracks and Environmental Data

Statistical Tests and Models

Pearson Correlation Tests was implemented to look at the relationship
between each individual factor and TC rainfall.
Varimax Rotated Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was employed to
reduce the number of factors and group them in new components that
account for independent variable correlations.
Principal Component Regression (PCR) was used to model the
components contribution to tropical cyclone rainfall variability.
Mann-Whitney U Test was employed to compare the factors associated
with the highest and lowest rainfall producing storms.

Results: Descriptive Statistics

Table 2. Descriptive statistics of storm specific and
environmental factors associated with the 86 TCs
analyzed.

LAT
LON
PRX*
DUR
HTS
VMX
TPW
MRH
WSU
WSV

Minimum
13.5
-70.6
1
12
3.15
11.11
30.31
23.45
-10.79
-16.30

*1 means landfall

Maximum
22.8
-61
499.9
102
13.17
72.28
53.74
74.32
32.08
12.46

Mean
17.9
-65.5
239.7
41.5
6.3
28.3
44.7
49.8
9.9
.22

Table 3. Tropical cyclones that produced more than 50 mm rainfall over the
island of Puerto Rico.
TC
Max Intensity
Year
TCR (mm)
Rank
Eloise
TD
1975
279.15
1
Georges*
H3
1998
271.43
2
David
H5
1979
237.56
3
Hortense*
H1
1996
209.74
4
Jeanne*
TS
2004
190.35
5
Isabel
TS
1985
186.72
6
Chris
TD
1988
158.91
7
Grace
TS
1997
122.35
8
Frederic*
TS
1979
106.28
9
Olga*
TS
2007
99.89
10
Lenny
H3
1999
99.37
11
Claudette*
TD
1979
98.93
12
Debby
H1
2000
94.86
13
Debby
TD
1982
85.96
14
Hugo*
H4
1989
84.14
15
Marilyn
H2
1995
76.35
16
Dean
TS
2001
73.21
17
Klaus
TS
1984
72.01
18
Mindy
TS
2003
66.92
19
Carmen
TD
1974
64.76
20
Odette
TS
2003
58.43
21
Earl
H3
2010
57.35
22
Luis
H4
1995
53.2
23
*Tropical cyclones that made landfall.

Results: Correlation Tests

Table 4. Pearson correlation coefficients for each of
the predictors relationship with TC average total
rainfall.

Factors
TPW
PRX
MRH
DUR
LON
HTS
VMX
WSV
LAT
WSU

Correlation Coefficients
0.716
-0.678
0.565
0.542
-0.357
-0.288
0.144
-0.106
0.073
0.011

Significance
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.007
0.184
0.333
0.503
0.923

Table 5. Pearson correlation coefficients of variables that were found

to be significantly correlated with average total TC rainfall.
TPW

PRX
MRH
DUR
TPW
1 -0.342** 0.593** 0.338**
PRX
-0.342**
1 -0.265** -0.591**
MRH
0.593** -0.265**
1 0.214**
DUR
0.338** -0.591** 0.214**
1
HTS
-0.319**
0.133
-0.184 -0.545**
LON
-0.373**
-0.001 -0.452**
0.130
**Correlation is significant at 0.01

HTS
LON
-0.319** -0.373**
0.133
-0.001
-0.183 -0.452**
-0.545**
0.130
1
-0.050
-0.050
1

Results: Correlation Plots Moisture

Results: Correlation Plots Proximity and Duration

Results: Correlation Plots Speed and Longitude

Results: Varimax Rotated PCA

Table 6. Varimax rotated principal component analysis (PCA) results.
Data includes the number of components its % of variance, cumulative
variance and variable loadings.
Components

% of Variance

Cumulative %

25.39

25.39

20.20

45.60

15.09

60.70

10.64

71.34

Variables Loadings
DUR
PRX
HTS
MRH
LON
TPW
LAT
WSU
VMX
WSV

0.89
-0.74
-0.66
0.79
-0.77
0.77
-0.88
0.87
0.85
0.69

Results: PCR
Table 7. Forward principal component regression model results.

Model

R2

Adjusted R2 Components

Factors

Coefficients Significance

MRH
2

LON

.605

0.000

.585

0.000

TPW
TCR

.842

.708

.701
DUR
1

PRX
HTS

Results: PCR Plots

Results: Mann Whitney U Test Results

Table 8. Statistics of the top 23 highest and lowest
rainfall events associated with TCs for Puerto Rico.

TCR
TPW
PRX
MRH
DUR
LON
HTS
TCR
TPW
PRX
MRH
DUR
LON
HTS

Highest 23 TC Rainfall Producers

Minimum Maximum Mean
Std. Dev.
53.20
279.15 123.82
70.61
40.00
53.74
48.56
3.57
1.00
326.60
93.57
101.40
43.91
74.32
55.85
7.83
12.00
102.00
55.57
26.17
-70.60
-63.60 -66.38
1.87
3.44
11.87
5.81
1.91
Lowest 23 TC Rainfall Producers
0.65
10.52
4.64
3.04
30.31
47.85
40.07
4.40
104.65
499.90 363.11
110.89
23.45
56.64
41.36
7.91
12.0
60.0
23.73
13.47
-68.0
-61.0 -64.28
2.12
3.15
13.17
7.39
2.40

Table 9. Mann-Whitney U test results for the TCs associated with the 23 highest and
lowest rainfall events for Puerto Rico.
Factors
Mann-Whitney U
Z-score
Significance P-value

TCR
TPW
PRX
MRH
DUR
0.00
24.00
29.00 42.500
80.00
-5.811 -5.284 -5.183 -4.877 -4.077
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000

LON
122.500
-3.122
.002

HTS
144.00
-2.647
.008

Results: Highest and lowest rainfall producing storms

Total Precipitable Water of Top and Lowest 23 TCs

Conclusions
Heavy rainfall occurred across Puerto Rico when tropical
cyclones were within a distance of 233 km or less to the
island.
Also when moisture environments exceeded 44.5 mm of
precipitable water and 44.5% of mid-level relative humidity.

While moving slowly with speeds of 6.4 ms-1 or less and

extending more to the west .

Future Research
Future work will examine the contribution of TCs to the rainfall
climatology of Puerto Rico.
The spatial distribution of TC rainfall over the island and its
relationship with topography.
Future research will also focus on understanding the relationship
between TC rainfall and extreme flooding events over the island.