Introduction to Probability

Probability in the real world

Sports
A coin toss at the beginning of a football
game.
2 possible outcomes: Heads or Tails

A field goal kick in football

Distance versus accuracy

A free throw in basketball

Skill, aim and other factors.

Probability in the real world

Board games
Rolling a dice
What are the odds of rolling an odd number?
What are the odds of rolling a 1?

Spinning a spinner
If a spinner has 4 sections (red, blue, yellow
& green) what are the odds of spinning a
blue?

Probability in the real world

Weather
If you are planning an outdoor event,
you want to check to see what the
probability of rain is.
Example: On Friday there is a 20%
chance of rain and on Saturday there is
a 60% chance of rain. I think I will play
tennis on Friday not Saturday.

Warm-Up- Solve
A) One chooses 3 different toppings on a veggie
burger from a choice of 15 toppings.
15 14 13
455
3x 2

B) Arrange all 6 shirts in your closet. Order is

important.
6 x5 x 4 x3x 2 x1 720

C) How many ways can 5 people sit at a round

table?
5 x 4 x3 x 2 x1 120 5 24

The probability of any event occurring ranges from

0 to 1.

Topic

Impossibl
e

Possible

Certain

Today

Friday

It will rain

Its
Thursday

Dice

Rolling a 7

Rolling a 3

Rolling a
1,2,3,4,5 or
6

Can be a FRACTION , PERCENTAGE or DECIMAL

Adding/ Subtracting Multiplying Fractions

Fractions
1
3
3
1
1 1

6 5 30 10
4 2
1 2
3 1 3


4 4
10 2 20
3

4
2 7 14

3 1

5 5
4

45

1 2 2
1

4 9 36 18

Page
134
Complete all of
the questions

A
Theoretical Probability

B
Experimental Probability

1 in 2 odds of flipping a heads

Collect Data

1 in 100000 chance of winning

the lottery

3 in 24 Canadians
said they speak French

Requires Logic
1 in 6 rolls is a 3

Results may be
unexpected

Probability of drawing
a spade is 1 in 4

2 out of 5 students said

they like pizza

Theoretical Probability
# of desired outcomes
total # of outcomes

Experimental Probability
# of desired outcomes observed
# of trial runs

Theoretical
Probability
Flipping a heads

Rolling a 3

Drawing a heart

Rolling a # <4

1
0.5 50%
2

Experimental
Probability

43
0.54 54%
80

1
32
0.17 17%
0.16 16%
200
6

6
1
0.3 30%
0.25 25%
20
4

3
0.5 50%
6

88
0.55 55%
160

When the number of experiments becomes very

large experimental probability begins to reach
theoretical probability.
Complementary events are 2 outcomes of an event that are the
only 2 possible outcomes.
Can you think of an example?
Flipping a coin and getting heads or tails. ...
Rolling a die and getting a 1 or 2 are not complementary, since there are other
outcomes that may happen (3, 4, 5, or 6).

Probability Continued

 Set of outcomes: list of all possible

combinations in a random experiment.
We use the Greek symbol to represent
it.
Example: Describe the set of all possible
outcomes for flipping a coin.
= (H, T)
Go to page 137 and describe the set of
all possible outcomes for rolling a die and
drawing a face card.

 An Event: you list only some of the

items in a set. (Do not use )
Example: Rolling an even number = (2,
4, 6)
At the bottom of page 137 answer the
following:
1.The event of rolling an odd number
2.The event of picking a queen in a deck of cards
3.The event of picking a non-face card that is red

Page 139
Answer questions 1 to 3

The ANDs and ORs of probability

When you see AND, think (X MULTIPLICATION)
When you see OR, think (+ ADDITION)

The AND of Probability: Think MULTIPLY

When 2 independent EVENTS happen in a row, the
probability of event 1 AND event 2 occurring is the
multiplication of the probability of each individual event.

a) Drawing a Queen &

Rolling a 6.
1 1
P(Q,6)
13 6

0.013
78

b) Drawing a Spade &

Rolling an even #.
1 1
P(Spade, Even)
4 2
1
0.125
8

The OR of Probability: Think ADD

When two independent events happen and one
event OR the other is considered a success, the
probability of either occurring is the ADDITION of
the probabilities of each individual event.
Find the probability
b) Drawing a King or Jack
a) Rolling a 1, 3 or 4
1
1
P(1, 2 or 4)

1 1 1
13 13
P(1, 2 or 4)
6 6 6
2
0.15
3 1
13

6 2

Draw a probability tree for picking 2 marbles from a bag, without

replacement. The bag contains 4 RED, 3 BLUE and 2 GREEN.

Red

Red

4
9

Blue

Green

Blue

3
9

Green

2
9

2
8

8
72

Red

4 12

8 72

Blue

2 6
72
8

Green

3
12

8
72
12
3

8
72

Red

2 6
72
8

3 6
8 72

3
Blue 8

1
Green
8

6
72
2

72

The sum of
all probabilities

=1

Determine the probability of picking

12
1

a) 2 RED marbles P(R,R)

72
6
b) At least 1 BLUE marble

P( 1B) P(R,B) + P(B,R) + P(B,B) + P(B,G) + P(G,B)

12
12
6
6
6

72
72
72
72
72
42 7

or 0.583
72 12

c)
The
same
colour
twice

P(SAME 2) P(R,R) + P(B,B) + P(G,G)

20 5
12
6
2

72 18
72
72
72

Gummies from a box. You pick 1 gummy from

the box. There are 4 pinks, 3 yellows and 3 blues.
a) What is the set of outcomes?

pink, yellow, blue

What is the probability of picking..
b) A pink candy?
4
P( pink)
9

d) A blue or yellow candy?

c) A blue candy?
2

P(blue)
9

e) No yellow candy?

2 3 5
P(blue or yellow)
9 9 9

6 2
P(no yellow)
9 3

Probability Tree
Helps to visualize outcomes
Must contain
Each branch should be labelled and
probability of that event written on
branch
Outcome of all compound events listed
to the right of the tree
Probability of each compound event
listed to the right of tree.

On a piece of paper
complete the following
questions.

1. Talia, Sarah
sitting
inbe
the
back seat of a
Handand
it inKatie
once are
done.
It will
marked!
Mini van. Show all the possible seating arrangements
with a tree.
2. Mr. Russell wants to contact Aylmer residents to let
them know about the upcoming rugby season schedule.
He created a telephone chain in 3 steps. 1 st he calls 3
people. Then each of those 3 people must call 3 other
people. Finally, the last people must all call 3 people.
Draw a tree to show how many people were contacted.
3. Obi and Jonas have to make a survey for POP class. It
contains 3 true or false questions. Draw a tree diagram
to show all possible ways this questionnaire could have
been answered.

Probability Tree
You pick a gummy at random and eat it AND choose
another and eat it.
1st Gummy

2nd Gummy

4
pink 9

3
yellow 9

3
pink 8
3
yellow
8
2
blue
8

4
8
pink

2
yellow
8
2
blue
8
4
pink 8
3
yellow
8
1
blue
8

blue

2
9

Probability
4 3 12 1

9 8 72 6
4 3 12 1

9 8 72 6
4 2
8 1

9 8 72 9
3 4 12 1

9 8 72 6
3 2
6 1

9 8 72 9
3 2
6
1

9 8 72 12
3 4 12 1

9 8 72 6
3 2
6 1

9 8 72 9
3 2
6
1

9 8 72 12

Page 138 complete all

questions

Probability Challenge

What is the probability of

a) Rolling a 1 or a 5?

2 1
P(1 or 5)
6 3

b) Rolling a 1 and then a 2

1 1 1
P(1,2)
6 6 36

c) Eating an orange and then a banana?

There are 5 oranges and 3 bananas to pick from.

5 3 8 1
P(orange, banana)

8 7 56 7

d) Eating at random an apple or a banana?

There are 4 apples, 3 oranges and 2 bananas to pick from.

4 2 6 2
P(apple or banana)
9 9 9 3

e) Randomly drawing a queen of spades (replacing it) then drawing another queen of spades?

1 1
1
P(queen spade, queen spade)

52 52 2704

f) Randomly drawing a queen of spades or a heart?

1 13 14 7
P(queen spade, heart)

52 52 52 26

2
ban 10

app

org

3
10

2
9

ban

1
9

3
app
9 1
org
9

4
nec
9

ban

app

1
org
9

4
nec
9

4 3 12 1

9 8 72 6
4 3 12 1

9 8 72 6
4 2
8 1

9 8 72 9
3 4 12 1

9 8 72 6
3 2 6 1

9 8 72 9
3 2 6
1

9 8 72 12

2
9

3 4 12 1

9 8 72 6
3 2 6 1

9 8 72 9
3 2 6
1

9 8 72 12

4
ban

8 3
app
8

org 1

9
4
nec

Homework
Page 140 to 142