CoronalMassEjectionsYear

Two:PropertiesinRelationto
ActiveRegionEmergence

SharmainSiddiqui
NilesNorthHighSchool


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TableofContents
Acknowledgements.....3
Purpose&Hypothesis.....4
ReviewofLiterature...5
Materials.......16
Procedure......17
Variables...18
Data...........19
DataAnalysis........32
StatisticalAnalysis....35
ExperimentalError....36
Conclusion........37
WorkCited........41


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Acknowledgements
IwouldliketofirstacknowledgeandthankmymentorMr.FaustoCattaneo,attheUniversityof
Chicago,forteachingmeallofthenecessaryskillsandbeingextremelypatientthroughoutmy
learningprocess.Mr.Cattaneohasbeenworkingonthisprojectwithmeforthepasttwoyears,
andhastaughtmenumeroustechniquesandapproachestohandlemydata,forwhichIam
grateful.
Next,IwouldliketothankDr.NicholasNelsonatLosAlamosLaboratory,forgivingmeallthe
meansnecessarilytocarryoutmyexperimentationandforansweringallofmyquestions
pertainingtothisproject.
IwouldalsoliketothankmySTEMInquiryandResearchteacherMs.ChristineCamel,for
encouragingandhelpingmethroughoutallthestagesofmyproject,aswellasmyfriendsand
familyfortheirunendingsupport.


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Purpose
Thepurposeofmyexperimentationistodetermineifcoronalmassejectionsandtheirproperties
arerelatedwithsolarflaresandsolarsunspotsinordertodetermine:
1. Whichformsofsolaractivityarecorrelated
2. IfsunspotsorflaresarethecauseofCMEsoreffectCMEsandtheirproperties
3. Amodelforpredictingactiveregionemergence.

Hypotheses
HypothesisI:
Iftheamountofcoronalmassejectionsisaboveaverageinthespanofatwelve
yearsolarcycle,thenthesolarflaresand/orsolarsunspotswillfollowthecoronalmassejection
rates.
HypothesisII:
Ifthemassofthecoronalmassejectionsisaboveaverageinthespanofatwelve
yearsolarcycle,thenthesolarflaresand/orsolarsunspotswillfollowthecoronalmassejection
rates.
HypothesisIII:
Ifthelinearspeedofthecoronalmassejectionsisaboveaverageinthespanof
atwelveyearsolarcycle,thenthesolarflaresand/orsolarsunspotswillfollowthecoronalmass
ejectionrates.

Rationale:Morecoronalmassejectionsmeanstherearemorechangestothephotosphereofthe
sun.Thesunsphotospheredirectlycorrelateswithsolarflaresandsunspots,asthephotosphere
iswheretheseformsofactiveregionemergencearegenerated.Thelinearspeeddirectly
correlateswiththemass,asmassisthedeterminingfactorforlinearspeed.


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ReviewofLiterature
Anydaynow,theworldwilllaywitnesstoamagnificenteventthatoccursonlyonce
everyelevenyears.Themagneticfieldofthesunhasbeenfluctuatingandchurningasits
gettingreadytoflipitsmagneticfieldpolarity.Thisfieldreversalwillcausearippleeffect
throughoutoursolarsystemandbringaboutaspawnofsolaractivity.Solaractivity,suchas
coronalmassejections,solarflares,solarsunspots,andothershavethepotentialtobe
detrimentaltoastronauts,earthspowergrids,aswellascausegeomagneticstorms.Theorigin
ofmanyofthesedifferenttypesofsolaractivityandphenomenaremainsaheavilydebated
mystery,andonethathasbeenstunningscientistsforhundredsofyears.
Thesunliesattheheartofoursolarsystem,itisthecenteroforbitforearthaswellasall
otherplanetsinoursolarsystem.Thesunisagargantuanspherefilledofgas,madeupprimarily
ofheliumandhydrogenaswellastraceamountsofnitrogen,carbon,andotherelements(Bonus,
n.d).ItisayellowdwarfandthoughttobeoneofthebrighteststarsintheMilkyWaygalaxy.
Thesunisclassifiedthroughthestellarclassificationsystem.Starsareclassifiedfirstbasedon
temperature:OBAFGKM,withObeingthehottest(temperaturesaround50,000Kelvin)and
Mbeingtheleasthot,withtemperaturesofaround300Kelvin(Pandian,2001).Thesunleans
towardtheleasthotend,beingaGtype.Mainsequencestarsarestarsthatformheliumattheir
core,withmorethanaquarterbeingmadeofhelium.Thisratio,however,changesslowlyover
timeforthesunbecauseitscoreconvertsitshydrogentohelium.(Bernat,2011).Beingyellow
inappearance,thesunisclassifiedasayellowdwarf.However,itisimportanttonotethanthe
sunisabrightwhiteinactualityandonlyappearsyellowfromtheearthsatmosphere(Morgan,
2013).


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Thefirstvisiblesurfaceofthesuniscalledthesunsphotosphere.Thephotosphereisthe
regionfromwhichvisiblelightandheatradiates(Milnes,1921).Onthephotosphere,onecan
observethelimbdarkeningphenomenon.Limbdarkeningiswhenlookingatanimageofastar,
thereisadiminishinitsintensityasonemovesone'sfocusoutofthecenterofthesunandonto
theedges.Thisoccursprimarilyfortworeasons.Thefirstbeingthatthedensityofthestar
diminishesasitmovesoutofthecenter,whichcreatesadarkshadow.Thesecondandmore
notablebeingthatthetemperatureofthestardecreasesasitmovesawayfromthecore(Neckel
&Labs,1994).Inrespecttosolaractivityonthesunsphotosphere,astheactivitymovesaway
fromthecenterofthesun,onemustaccountforlimbdarkening.
Abovethesunsphotosphereisaregiondesignatedthechromosphere.Thesolarcorona
andtransitionregionareallpartsofthechromosphere.Thecoronaisaregionofplasmathat
surroundsthesun,aswellasothercelestialbodies.Itextendsoveramillionkilometersfromthe
sunsphotosphere(Mattson,2010).Thechromosphereismuchhotterthantheactualsurfaceof
thesun,anditiswherelightisemittedfrom.Thephotospherehasanaveragetemperatureof
5,800Kelvin,whereasthecoronasrangesbetweenanywherefromonetothreemillionKelvin
(Klypin,2003).Moreover,thechromosphereproducesmorevisiblelightthanthephotosphere.
Thesunlightthatweseefromplanetearthismainlythelightfromtheatmospheresit
originatesfromthephotosphereandinsideofthesun,tothecoronawhichiswherewecanstart
todetectit.Thecoronaisfollowedbythechromosphereratherthanbythephotosphere(Thorp,
2004).Somescientistsprefertocombinethecoronaandchromosphereasone,duetothe
relativeshallownessofthechromosphere.
Thecoronaisprimarilywhereonecanobservecoronalloops.Coronalloopsareshapes


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thattheplasmatakesformofbytheguidanceofthemagneticfield(Tian,Marsch,Curdt&He,
2009).Theloopsarevisiblewherethemagneticfieldlinespopupdimensionallyoffthesurface
ofthesun(SOHO,n.d).Duringsolarmaximum,whenthesunssolaractivityisatitshighest,
themagneticfieldlinesareattheirmosttwisted.Thetensefieldlinesoftenprotrudethe
photosphereandbounceupcreatingliteralloopsonthecorona(MSU,2001).Onecanlink
coronalloopswithotherformsofsolaractivity,astheyoftenoccurwithothersolar
phenomenons,suchassolarsunspots.(EPA,2012).
Magneticfieldlinesandplasmaplaykeyrolesinthesunsabilitytofunction(NASA,
n.d).Amagneticfieldisanareainanygivenspacewhereanobjectcanexhibitmagnetic
influence.Ifanobjectisplacedonamagneticfield,itwillbeaffectedbyeitherattractingor
repulsing(Doris,2001).Therepulsionorattractionhappensalongthemagneticfieldlines.
Magneticpolesarethepointswhereamagneticlinebeginsorends.OnEarth,wehavethenorth
magneticpoleandthesouthmagneticpole.Thesun,whilehavingtwomagneticpoles,haslevels
ofnorthandsouthpolaritythroughoutallregionsofit(Apsell&Ritsko,2003).
Magneticfieldlinestravelthroughcoronalholes.Coronalholesareareasonthesuns
chromosphereorcoronawheretheconcentrationofplasmaislessdense,thereforedarkerand
colder.Howevercoronalholesarenottobeconfusedwithsunspotsbecausewhilesunspotsare
alsoblemishesonthesunssurface,coronalholesarefoundbeyondthephotosphereandintothe
corona.Inmostscenarios,whenamagneticfieldlinepassesthroughacoronalhole,solarwinds
areformed.
Activeregionsonthesunareareaswithespeciallystrongmagneticfields(Antiochos,
DeVore,&Klimchuk,1998).Thisdirectlytradesoffwithsolaractivityifaregionhasa


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multitudeofmagneticfieldlines,theregionisexpectedtohaveanincreasednumberofsolar
activity.Differenttypesofsolaractivityoccursatdifferentlevelsonthesunsatmospheres.At
thebasicphotosphere,darkplasmacausedbycoronalloopsaswellascoronalholescanbe
observed.Alsoatthephotosphere,spiculescanbeobserved.Spiculesarejetsofplasmathat
shootfromthephotosphereintothechromosphere(Freedman&Kaufmann,2007).Likewise,
spiculesareassociatedwithstrongmagneticfluxareaswithmanymagneticfieldlines.The
causeofspiculesremainsunknown,butalinkcanbemadewithspiculesandstrongmagnetic
fields.Atanygiventime,therecanbeonaverage300,000spiculesshootingintothe
chromosphere.Spiculesdonotgooffintospace,likeothersolaractivitydoes.Rather,spicules
remainconfinedtothephotosphereofthesun(Lorrain&Koutchmy,1996).
Coronalmassejectionscanbedefinedasalargeemissionofplasmaandmassfromthe
sunwhichcancausemassivesolarwinds(Howard,2013).Coronalmassejections(CMEs)
occurwhenthemagneticfieldofthesunrisesabovesolarcoronaandisreleasedoffintospace
magneticfieldsarebeingrisenabovetheouteratmosphereofthesun.(Holman&Benedict,
N.D).Thesunsmagneticfieldisagenerationofmultitudesofelectricalcurrentsthatspread
throughoutthesolarsystem.Whenthelinesofthesunsmagneticfieldbecometootense,they
explode,whichmeansthesunsplasmaisnolongerconfinedtothesunssurface.Thisexplosion
ofplasmaintospaceinmostformsbecomesacoronalmassejection.Theplasmaexplodesat
sucharatethatitcausesthoroughmovementinspace.CMEsareknowntohavedetrimental
effectsnotonlyinspace,butonearthtoo.Looplikeshapedcoronalmassejectionsriseashuge
cloudsofmaterialfromthesolaratmospherewhenthesehighenergy,chargedparticlesare
directedtowardsearth,largemagneticstormsareproducedinthemagnetosphere.Magnetic


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stormsareknowntoproduceabnormalamountsofradiation,thatareharmfultohumans.Storms
furthermoredisruptelectricalsystems.Whenacoronalmassejectionislaunched,notonlydoes
itreleasematterintospace,itreleaseselectromagneticradiationaswell(Fox,n.d).Thiscauses
dramaticchangesinspaceweather.Forexample,ifacoronalmassejectionisdirectedtowards
earth,itcancausephenomenalikethenorthernlights.However,itcancauseradiationto
astronautsandelectronicsinspaceaswellascauseblackoutsonearthorpowertransformers
overload.
Acoronalmassejectionisntformedinamatterofminutes,ratherittakeshoursfora
coronalmassejectiontodetachitselffromthesunsmagneticlinesevenatenseone.Thebuild
upofthetensionissomethingthatoccursinweeks.Stewart(2010)says,Afteracoronalmass
ejectiondoesdetachitselffromthesun,itcanreachspeedsofupto7millionmilesperhour.
CMEsareproducedatasomewhatsteadyrate.Duringthesolarminimum,thesunisaveraged
toejectoneaday,whileduringthesolarmaximum,onecanobserveanaverageof34.While
itssizevaries,ejectionsupto200billionpoundshavebeenrecorded(Geiss,2005).CMEsare
enormousinsizebecausetheycarryoverabilliontonsofparticlesatoveramillionmilesper
hourwhichareallfromthesun.Thismeanstheyalsoresultinalargeamountofradiation
(Chen&Kunkel,2010).TheparticlesfrominterplanetaryCMEs,whichareCMEsdirected
towardsearth,canreachearthinamatterofdays.Theparticlesfromtheinterplanetaryejections
arenotdetrimentaltoorganismsonearthbecausetheEarthsatmosphereprotectsusfromthe
radioactiveparticles.However,electricalsystemsarestillleftatrisk.
DoctorGordonHolmandefinessolarflaresas,Asudden,rapid,andintensevariationin
brightness(2007).However,flaresarentmerelyanexplosion.Solarflaresarethereleasingof


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chargedparticlescausedbythesunsmagneticfield.Flarespushoutwavesoflightacrossall
spectrumsaswell.Solarflaresoccurinthreephases:firstistheprecursorstage,whentherelease
ofmagneticenergyistriggered.Inthenextstage,particlesstarttoaccelerateandemitoffofthe
sun.Inthefinalstage,thedecaystage,thegradualbuildupanddecayofsoftxraysareobserved
(Holman,2007).SolarflaresactlikeCMEs:whatdiffersisthatcoronalmassejectionsare
abouttentimeslargerandhavemuchgreatereffects.Acoronalmassejectionhastheabilityto
balloonoutplasmathatcanbe
largerthanthesun
.Thisisnottosaythatsolarflaresaresmallin
sizeorinmagnitude.Asolarflaresenergyisequivalenttothatoftensofthousandsofhydrogen
bombs(Heath,2013).Solarflaresproduceenergytenmilliontimesgreaterthanvolcanic
explosions.However,toputthingsintoperspective,solarflaresemitlessthanonetenthofthe
totalenergyemittedbythesuneverysecond(Bodony,2003).Likecoronalmassejections,a
solarflarealsospewselectromagneticradiationacrosstheelectromagneticspectrum

ina
varietyofwavelengths(Chen,2010).Allsolaractivitythatoccursiscausedbythemagnetic
field.Sotheobviousnextquestionis:Whydoesthesunsmagneticfielddowhatitdoes?The
answertothishowever,isquitesimple.Thesunsmagneticfieldisverydynamic.Itconsistsof
electricalcurrentsandparticles.Whenfieldlinesofthesunbecometootense,theyexplode.This
increaseintensioniscausedbytheparticlesandcurrents.Theycanbeimaginedasbouncing
around,andatsomepointbecomingincreasinglyconcentratedinonespecificarea.Chenand
Kunkel(2010)statethatwhenthathappens,Theareabecomesmoretense,thuscausingan
explosionofsaidcurrentsandparticles.
Coronalmassejections,solarflares,andsunspotsaremarked,categorized,observed,and
predictedinthesolarcycle.Thesolarcycleistheperiodicelevenyearchangeinthesuns

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magneticfieldsandactiveregionemergence,whichcategorizestheamountsandenormityof
solaractivity.Thesolarmaximumisthepointinthesolarcyclewhenonecanobservethemost
CMEs,flares,sunspots,andallgeneralsolaractivity.Thesolarmaximumiswhenthesuns
magneticfieldreversespolarityandcausessolaractivity.Scientistsdontunderstandexactly
whythemagneticfieldreverses
polarity.Duringsolarmaximum,
themagneticfieldsofbothpoles
weakentozero,thentheybounce
backwithopposite
(Babcock,1959).Theoutermost
layerofthesun,thesolarcorona,
..
Figure1
(Magneticfieldlinesofthesunat

solarmaximum)isfilledwith
magneticfieldlines.Whenthereisachangein

thestructureandconnectionofthesemagnetic
fields,changesinsolaractivityoccur(Metcalf,n.d).Mostofthetimethatchangeinsolar
activityisgoingtobeonewheremoresolaractivityisoccurring.Figure1showsthemagnetic
fieldofthesunduringasolarmaximum(Berthou,TheSunandIt'sInfluenceUponEarth).The
magneticfieldlinesareincrediblywavyandtheresnotaspecificpatterntothem.Thisis
becauseduringsolarmaximum,(Magneticfieldlinesduringsolarminimum)themagneticfield
linesofthesungoawry.Solaractivityishappeningall

aroundthesun.Youcanseethis

bythe
unevenlines,thatdontfollowanygivenpatternaswellasthehalfcirclesthatareformingon
thesun.Theenclosedmagneticlinesshowthepushingoffrozenplasmaintospace.InFigure2

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themagneticfieldofthesunisbeingshownduringitssolarminimum(Berthou,n.d).In
comparisontothemagneticfieldofthesunduringitssolarmaximum,thefieldlinesare
symmetrical.Theresalsoonly
twoenclosedmagneticfieldlines,
insteadofthefourpresentduring
thesolarmaximum.Bothofthe
enclosedfieldlinesarealsothe
samesizeandtheemergingfield
linesfrombotharethesamefrom
bothsides.Duringthesolar
..
Figure2

minimum,thesunsmagnetic
..
Figure2

linesarealotlesshectic,
followingacertainpattern.Howeverduringsolarmaximum,everythingiscompletely
randomized,whichmakesitdifficultforscientiststodeterminewhenwhatCMEisgoingto
occurandwhen.
Anothertypeofsolaractivityissunspots.Sunspotsareanadditionalmagnetic
phenomenathatcanbedefinedasphysicalblemishesonthesunsphotosphere(Evans,Opher,&
Gomboni2011).Dr.NolaReddexplainsthatsunspotsareformedwhen:

Thematerialatthesolarequatortravelssignificantlyfasterthanthematerialatthepoles.
Themagneticfieldlinesbecomewarped.Whenthemagneticfieldisstrongenough
andtwistedenoughjetstreamsofflowingcurrentscreateropesofmagnetism.Mostof

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theropelaysinsidethesun,butpartofitmaybreakthroughthevisiblelayer,whereitis
viewedintheformoftwosunspots.

Sunspotsdifferfrommassejectionsandflaresbecausemagneticforceisbeingreleasedfrom
sunspotswhereasinejectionsandflares,radioactiveparticlesarebeingejected.Asunspotoccurs
whengianttubelikemagneticlines(fluxtubes)riseupfrominsidethesunandarelaunchedinto
space.Sunspotsaredarkerthantherestofthephotospherebecausetheforceexertedbytheflux
tubeswhenlaunchingthemontothesurfacehappensright
below
thesurface.Sothetransferof
heatissloweddownmakingitcoolerandinturndarker(Sherwood,2002).
Inastudy,theanalysisoftheratesofcoronalmassejectionsandsolarflares,numbers
showedthatduringthemaximaofcoronalmassejections,whengroupsofCMEswere
occurringapproximatelyatthesamerateattheirhighestnumericalpoint,themaximaofsolar
flarenumberswereattheirownhighpoint.Studiesconcludethatwhencoronalmassejections
havequickratestheyfollowthesolarcycle.Theresultsofthisstudyledtothebeliefthatflares
andanassociateCMEcanactasasystem,ofonereleasingandanotherfollowing.Itisproposed
thatthespeedsofcoronalmassejectionsplayaroleindeterminingwhetherornottheyarise
withactiveregionemergence.However,whentheratesofcoronalmassejectionswerelow,no
immediatereactionwasshownincomparisontosolarflarenumbers(Jain,2010).This
experimentationfurthersthepointthatthereisinfactalinkbetweencoronalmassejectionsand
othertypesofsolaractivity.
Anotherstudytestedgeomagneticactivityandshockdisturbancesinassociationwith
CMEsthataredirectedtowardsearth.Theresultsofthisstudyshowedthatnearlyallofthe

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largegeomagneticstormswereassociatedwithCMEsdirectedtowardsEarthaswellasshock
disturbancesalargenumberofthegeomagneticstormswereassociatedwithinterplanetary
(directedtowardsearth)events,whereplanetEarthfeltashockaswellastheshockbeingdriven
fromhighintensityCMEevents.Theconclusionthatcanbedrawnfromthisexperimentisthat
thereisadefiniterelationshipbetweengeomagneticstormsandCMEs/othershockdisturbances.
TheresultsofthestudyprovedthatthereisarelationshipbetweenstormsandobservedCMEs.
AsignificantnumberofgeomagneticstormsanddisturbanceswereunrelatedtoCMEsand
shockdisturbances,sothereisstillquestionaboutthis,andmoreresearchneedstobeconducted
(Gosling,2012).Thisstudyhowever,uniquelyshowsthecorrelationbetweenCMEsto
geomagneticstormsratherthantoothermagneticphenom,whichisusuallywhatisstudied.The
relationshipbetweenthetwoprovedtobehelpfulbecauseCMEsareknowntobeoccasional
sourcesofhighamountsofplasmaandmagneticenergy.Theseareoftentimesrelatedto
magnetismandplayaroleingeomagneticstorms.Becausegeomagneticstormsarecausedby
andrelatedtoavarietyofthings,findingarelationshipisastepinmakingpreventative
measures.
Itiscriticalthatweashumansknowmoreaboutthespacethatencompassestheplaneton
whichweliveandthrive.Thesun,whichenablesustosurvive,alsohastheabilitytocause
organismsonearthandinspaceharm.Withinseconds,thesolaratmospherecangofrombeing
calmandquiettotornapartbysolaractivity.Solardisturbancessuchascoronalmassejections
andsolarflarescanhaveasevereimpactonthelivesofmillions.Thesesametypesofsolar
activityarealsotheleastunderstood.Effectsofsolardisturbancesproduceradioemissionsthat
decreaseradiocommunicationandtransmissionperformance.Magneticstormshavethe

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potentialtoinducepowerlossandhaveadetrimentaleffectongpssystems.Earthorbiting
satellitesaredisruptedfrequentlybecauseofsolaractivity,andthedamagetothemandpower
gridsarecostly.AsolarflareorCMEhasthepotentialtocauseawidescalecataclysmatany
givenmoment,whichmakesresearchonthemcrucial.

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Materials

BBSOSolarActivityDataBase

InternetAccess

MicrosoftOfficeExcel

NASACMEDataBase

SILSOSunspotDataBase

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Procedure
1. From1996to2008,lookatandrecorddailyoccurrencesofcoronalmassejection
(CME)numbersfromtheNASAdatabase.
2. From1996to2008,lookatandrecorddailyoccurrencesofsolarflarenumbersfromthe
BBSOdatabase.
3. From1996to2008,lookatandrecorddailyoccurrencesofsolarsunspotnumbersfrom
theSILSOdatabase.
4. From1996to2008,lookatandrecorddailyoccurrencesthemassofcoronalmass
ejectionsfromtheNASAdatabase.
5. From1996to2008,lookatandrecorddailyoccurrencesofthelinearspeedofcoronal
massejectionsfromtheNASAdatabase.

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Variables
Independent(HypothesisI):
CoronalMassEjections.
Independent(HypothesisII):
MassofCoronalMassEjections.
Independent(HypothesisIII):
LinearSpeedofCoronalMassEjections.
Dependent:
SolarSunspotsandSolarFlares
Controlled:
Nocontrolgroupwaspossible,astheexperimentationwasacomparisonamong
thetrialgroups

thethreeindependentvariablesrespectivelywithsolarsunspotsandflares.
However,theexternalvariables,suchastheprogramusedtorecorddata(MicrosoftExcel),and
theyearsrecorded(19961998)werecontrolled.

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Data

Graph1.CMELinearSpeedAverage,19962008

Graph2.CMEAverage,19962008

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Graph3.CMEMassAverage,19962008

Graph4.SolarFlareAverage,19962008

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Graph5.SolarSunspotAverage,19962008

Graph6.Sunspot,LinearSpeed,andFlareYearlyAverage,19962008

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Graph7.Sunspot,CME,andFlareYearlyAverage,19962008

Graph8.Sunspot,Mass,andFlareYearlyAverage,19962008

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Graph9.Sunspot,CME,Properties,andFlareYearlyAverage,19962008

Graph10.SolarActivityDailyAveraging,1996
(Massdecreasedbypowerof15,Flares&Spotsdecreasedbypower
of2)

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Graph11.SolarActivityDailyAveraging,1997
(Massdecreasedbypowerof15,Flares&Spotsdecreasedbypower
of2)

Graph12.SolarActivityDailyAveraging,1998
(Massdecreasedbypowerof15,Flares&Spotsdecreasedbypower
of2)

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Graph13.SolarActivityDailyAveraging,1999
(Massdecreasedbypowerof15,Flares&Spotsdecreasedbypower
of2)

Graph14.SolarActivityDailyAveraging,2000
(Massdecreasedbypowerof15,Flares&Spotsdecreasedbypower
of2)

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Graph15.SolarActivityDailyAveraging,2001
(Massdecreasedbypowerof15,Flares&Spotsdecreasedbypower
of2)

Graph16.SolarActivityDailyAveraging,2002
(Massdecreasedbypowerof15,Flares&Spotsdecreasedbypower
of2)

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Graph17.SolarActivityDailyAveraging,2003
(Massdecreasedbypowerof15,Flares&Spotsdecreasedbypower
of2)

Graph18.SolarActivityDailyAveraging,2004
(Massdecreasedbypowerof15,Flares&Spotsdecreasedbypower
of2)

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Graph19.SolarActivityDailyAveraging,2005
(Massdecreasedbypowerof15,Flares&Spotsdecreasedbypower
of2)

Graph20.SolarActivityDailyAveraging,2006
(Massdecreasedbypowerof15,Flares&Spotsdecreasedbypower
of2)

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Graph21.SolarActivityDailyAveraging,2007
(Massdecreasedbypowerof15,Flares&Spotsdecreasedbypower
of2)

Graph22.SolarActivityDailyAveraging,2008
(Massdecreasedbypowerof15,Flares&Spotsdecreasedbypower
of2)

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Graph23.CMELinearSpeedsv.FlaresandSunspotsinalinearregression,19962008

Graph24.CMEsv.FlaresandSunspotsinalinearregression,19962008

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Graph25.CMEMassv.FlaresandSunspotsinalinear/polynomialregression,19962008

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DataAnalysis
157,680setsofdatawereanalyzed.From1996to2008,eachcoronalmassejection,
coronalmassejectionspeed,coronalmassejectionmass,solarflare,andsunspotthatoccurred
foreachofthosedayswasrecordedandinspected.Theseorderedpairswerethendividedby
months,whereaveragesweremade.Thentheywereputintographs.
Thefirstfivegraphsshoweachvariableindependentlyanditslevelofactivityfrom1996
to2008.InGraph1,thelinearspeedofcoronalmassejectionsisshown.Theaveragespeedof
coronalmassejectionsisapproximately500kilometerspersecond.Fromthegraph,onecan
observethatduringthebeginningandendofthesolarcycle,wheremagneticfieldlinesdonot
goasawry,thelinearspeedofthecoronalmassejectionsisrecordedtobeinthelow300s.
However,independently,thelinearspeedpeakedin2002,averagingaround800.Thisnumberis
significantasitisalmostdoubletheaveragelinearspeed.Graph2showstheamountofcoronal
massejectionsthatoccurred.Thisgraphisalmostidenticaltothefirstgraph,whichindicates
thatthereisalinearrelationshipbetweenthelinearspeedofcoronalmassejectionsandthe
amountofcoronalmassejectionsthatoccurinacycle.Graph3showsthemassofcoronalmass
ejectionsthroughoutthe23rdcycle.Atfirstglance,thisgraphseemsrandomincomparisonto
thefirsttwo,whichadheretothesamerisesandfalls.However,aftertakingacloserlookatthe
data,itisapparentthatthisisaninverseofthefirsttwo.Thefirsttwographs:thelinearspeed
andtheCMEs,hittheirhighestpeakin2002.Subsequently,themassofthecoronalmass
ejectionswasitslowestduringthatyear.Everytimethefirsttwographsincrease,themassinits
respectivegraphdecreases,andviceversa.Betweenallthreeofthevariablesconcerningcoronal
massejections,thereisatrendthatshowsthatcoronalmassejectionsandtheirspeedsare

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positivelycorrelated,andthatthebothofthoseshareanegativecorrelationwithmass.
Graph4showsthesolarflaresofthecycle.Theamountofsolarflaresstartedoffslowly
inthebeginningofthecycle,whichistobeexpected,asitwassolarminimum.Theythen
graduallyincreaseduntil2000,beforetheydecreasedandthenfinallyhittheirhighpointin
2002.After2002,theamountofsolarflareswentonasteadydeclineuntilhittingonelastpeak
in2006

whichthecoronalmassejectionsandtheirpropertiesexperiencedin2006aswell

exceptatasmallermagnitude.Graph5showsthesolarsunspotsofthe23rdsolarcycle.Unlike
allofthepreviousgraphs,thesunspotshittheirhighestpointduring2000.2000wasasignificant
yearfortherestofthesolaractivitytoo,asallphenomexhibitedsignificanthighpointsduring
thatyear.However,during2002thesolarsunspotswerestillondecline,andthisiswherethey
delineatefromtherestoftheactiveregionemergence.Whenlookingcloseratthedata,into
monthlyaveragegraphs,onecanseethathighernumbersofsunspotsprecededhighamountsof
coronalmassejectionsandsolarflares.Thiscanleadtotheinferencethatsunspotsmaycause
otherformsofactivitytooccur.
Graphs69showcomparativesbetweentheindependentanddependentvariables.Graph
6showsalinearrelationshipbetweenthelinearspeedofCMEs,solarflares,andsolarsunspots.
AlthoughthepatternofthelinearspeedmaybeattributedsolelytotheamountofCMEs,this
graphshowsthatallthreeofthevariablesfollowwhatisarguablythesamepattern.Graph7,
whichisacomparisonofCMEs,flares,andsunspots,showsthatflaresandsunspotshadthe
exactdipsandpeaks,andwhiletheCMEsdidaswell,theydifferedslightly,inthatCME
activitywasmorechaotictowardstheendofthecycle.Graph8emphasizestheinverse
relationshipbetweenthemassofCMEsandphenomofthesun.Graph9and10showapositive

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correlationbetweenCMEs,CMElinearspeed,solarflares,andsolarsunspots.Themass
divergesfromthese,andisaninverserelationship.Thereareafewlogicalconclusionsthatcan
bedrawnfromthis.ThefirstisthatthereisaninverserelationshipbetweentheamountofCMEs
andtheirmass,andtheotheristhatthereisaninverserelationshipbetweensolarflaresor
sunspotsandthemass.Thisissignificantbecauseitgivesusauniqueperspectiveandprovides
uswithpossibilitiesastowhereallactiveregionemergenceoriginatesfrom.Althoughphysics
doesntprovideuswithanequationthatshowstherelationshipbetweenmassandlinearspeedin
zerogravitysituations,thereasonthetwoareinverselyrelatedmaybeattributedtowardsthefact
thatbecausetheCMEswerebeingproducedinsuchamannerthatwasmakingthemgoat
incrediblyhighspeeds,theywerentabletogenerateasbigofamassthattheycouldhave.
Graphs1022areofallformsofactiveregionemergenceandtheirproperties.Thesegraphstake
monthlyaveragingforeachyearandplotthepointsintotrendcharts.Whilesomeofthedata
pointsaremoreskewedinthemonthlyaverages,theystillappeartoallbefollowingthesame
patternsandthesamehighsandlowswithintheirrespectiveyears.Thereasonforthisisbecause
therearedailyfluctuationswithineach,buttheystillfollowthesameoverarchingpattern.
Furthermore,thenumberofsolaractivityexperiencedanoveralldecreasetowardstheendofthe
cyclesaveforthemass.

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StatisticalAnalysis
Graphs2325showcoronalmassejections,theirlinearspeeds,andtheirmass
respectivelyasorderedpairswithsolarflaresandsunspots.ThetrendlineforGraph23showsa
positivelinearassociationbetweensunspotsandflareswithlinearspeeds.Thecorrelation
coefficientwas.84forflaresandlinearspeeds,whichisextremelystrong.Thersquaredvalue
was.7024whichmeansthatthemodelaccountedforaround70%ofthevariabilityandoutliers.
Forsunspots,thervaluecameouttoa.786,whichismoderatelystrong.Graph24scorrelation
coefficientforflareswithcoronalmassejectionswas.78.Thisisascientificallyaccepted
correlationcoefficient,andallowedforaround65%variabilityinthedata.Sunspotsandcoronal
massejectionssharedacorrelationcoefficientof.91.Thisis
asclose
asonecangettofindinga
statisticallysignificantnumber,andtheresultsfortheseweresostrongthattheyaccountedfor
around85%variabilityinthedata.Finally,Graph25slinearregressionofCMEmassandflares
hadanrvalueof.35.Thisisnotasstrongastherestofthepredictabilityrates,andmightbe
accountedforbecauseofthefactthatitwastheonlyinverserelationshipfound.Sunspotsand
CMEmasssharedacorrelationcoefficientof.79,whichonceagain,yieldsrelativelystrong
reliability.Theseleadtotheconclusionthatsunspotsandflaresfailtorejectthenullhypothesis,
whichmeantthatthereisntasignificantdifferencebetweenwhen,how,andatwhatmagnitude
thetwooccur.Graph24providedthemostvaluableresults,asthe.91rvalueexemplifiesthat
sunspotsmaybeabletopredictCMEsandbecorrectforthemajorityofthetime.Theyalso
showthatusingflarestopredictspeeds,sunspotstopredictmass,andsunspotstopredictspeeds
willbearcorrectresultsapproximately70%ofthetime.

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ExperimentalError
Differentnumberscouldhaveaccidentlybeenwrittendown,ornumberscouldhavebeen
recordedintothewrongcellforMicrosoftExcel.Therealsocouldhavebeenunknownvariables
thatattributetothevariationpredictions,suchasexternalforcesactingonthesun.Furthermore,
errorsoccurwhenrecordingactiveregionemergence,astechnologyonlyallowsmeasurement
andobservationofaselectamount.

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Conclusion
Thepurposeofthisexperimentationwastodetermineifcoronalmassejectionsandtheir
propertiesarerelatedtosolarflaresandsolarsunspotsinordertodeterminewhichformsofsolar
activityarecorrelated,ifsunspotsorflaresarethecauseofCMEsoreffectCMEsandtheir
properties,andtocreateamodelforpredictingactiveregionemergence.Thisknowledgewill
helpscientistspredictandprepareforradiodisturbances,geomagneticstorms,andpower
outages.ThefirsthypothesispredictedthatalargenumberofCMEswouldhaveapositive
correlationwithflaresand/orsunspots.Meanwhile,thesecondhypothesispredictedthatcoronal
massejectionswithanaboveaveragemasswouldfollowflareand/orsunspotrates.Thethird
hypothesisindicatedhighlinearspeedsofcoronalmassejectionswouldshareapositive
correlationwithflaresand/orsunspots.Thesehypothesesweremadebecausephysicsproperties
andpastresearchstipulatethatmorecoronalmassejectionswouldleadtochangesonthe
photosphere.Thiswouldresultinmoreflaresandsunspotsasitwouldleadtochaoticmagnetic
linesonthesun,whichspawnactiveregionemergence.
TheexperimentationconsistedoflookingthroughtheNASA,SILSO,andBBSO
databasestoobserve,mark,record,andanalyzealloftheaforementionedphenomandtheir
respectivequalitiesthroughoutthe23rdsolarcycle.ThesunspotswererecordedfromtheSILSO
database,dailysunspotswererecordedfromJanuary1996toDecember2008.Forthecoronal
massejections,theirmass,andtheirlinearspeed,theNASACMEdatabasewasused.Solarflare
activitywasrecordedfromtheBBSOdatabase.157,680datapointswererecordedandmarked.
Fromthat,monthlyaveragesweregraphed.Afterobservingcorrelationsandtrendsbymonth,
yearlytrendgraphsweremadeforallofthevariables.

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Concluding,thefirstandthirdhypotheseswereprovencorrectandsupportedthedata.
Throughoutthecycle,whencoronalmassejectionnumbersreachedabovetheirnorm,sunspot
andsolarflarevaluesfollowed.Thefirsthypothesisstipulatedthatmorecoronalmassejections
wouldcauseanincreaseinflaresandsunspots.Whensunspotnumbersfluctuatedaroundthe
100sand200sandthesolarflaresreachedabovethe20s,coronalmassejectionsoccurredmore
frequently.Asmanyas8ejectionswereobservedinadayduringthistime.Thedataanalysis
showsthatthecoronalmassejections,thelinearspeedofthecoronalmassejections,andthe
solarflareswereattheirhighestpointsduring2002.Similarly,themassofthecoronalmass
ejections,whichwereataninverserelationship,hittheirlowestpointalsoduring2002.The
sunspotsreachedtheirpeakduring2002,andwhiletheywerestillatanaboveaveragepoint
during2002,theyweredecliningfromtheirhighestpeakof2002.Thethirdhypothesiswas
provencorrectandalsosupportedbythedata.Thelinearspeedofthecoronalmassejections
followedboththeflaresandthesunspotsinthesolarcycle.Therewasnolaginthehighpoints
andlowpointsforflaresandlinearspeed,howeversunspotscontinuedtheirtrendofhittingtheir
highpointfirst.Thesecondhypothesiswasdisproved.Thedatashowedthataroundsolar
maximum,whensolaractivitywasexpectedtobehigh,themassofthecoronalmassejections
wereinactualityattheirlowest.Althoughthehypothesiswasdisproved,thisservedtobe
oneof
themostimportant
aspectsoftheexperimentation.Thisisbecauseitshowedthatinzerogravity,
theremaybeaninverserelationshipbetweenmassandlinearspeed.Withthisnewlyfound
information,itcanbededucedthatthereisaninverserelationshipbetweenatleastcoronalmass
ejectionsandtheirmass.Thismaybecausedforavarietyofreasons.Becausecoronalmass
ejectionsarebeingproducedatsuchahighrateduringmaximum,theymaynothavethetime

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necessarytobecomeasenormousastheynormallyare.Anothervaluableconclusiontodraw
maybethatbecausecoronalmassejectionsaremovingatsuchhighlinearspeeds,theymay
havesmallermassesinordertomovefaster.AlthoughthisisnotaphysicslawonEarth,inzero
gravitysimulationsandsituations,thismightoccur.
Theresultsofallthreehypothesesmaybecontributedtothefactthatmagnetictensions
ofpolaritiesofthesunwereundulatingaroundthistime,somagneticfieldreversalcaused
tensionsandexplosions.Sunspots,flares,andcoronalmassejectionsstartedofflow,andended
thecyclewithlowmonthlyaveragesaswell.Atmultiplepointsthroughoutthecycle,high
sunspotsstartedoffandthatleadtohighcoronalmassejectionsandflares.
Infindingtherelationshipbetweenthesephenom,twosignificantillationscanbedrawn.
ThefirstbeingthatbecauseofthewaysunspotsrelatetoflaresandCMEs,itcanbeassumed
thatsunspotsarepotentiallyspawningotherformsofactiveregiontooccur.Thisisimportant
becausenotonlydoesitmeancorrelationwasobserved,butpotentiallycausationaswell.When
magneticlinesstartgoingawry,theycausesunspotsfirstbecausetheyareonthesurfaceofthe
sun.Thismaythenleadtootherformsofactivitythatarenotsimplyconfinedtothesurface
(CMEs,flares,loops,etc).Next,thisinformationhelpscreateamodelforpredictingactive
regionemergence.Theassumptioncaneitherbemadethatsunspotsarethebasepointforsolar
activity,orthatsincetheyallshareanabsolutepositiveornegativecorrelation,theremustbea
biggerphenomatplayatthecoreofthesunthatinitiatesthechaoticenergyofthemagnetic
field,thuscausingsolaractivity.
Thesefindingsprovetobeimportantinformation,astheyserveasthefoundationof
predictingactiveregionemergence,whichproducegeomagneticstorms,poweroutages,

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detrimentalspaceconditions,andradiodisturbances.Theselaundrylistofimpactsareimportant
nowmorethanever,asscienceandtechnologycontinuetoprogress,andspacetraveland
explorationbecomesprevalent.Withthisknowledge,scientistswillbeabletoaccuratelyprepare
againsttheaforementioned.Furthermore,inlearningabouthowactiveregionemergenceworks
andfunctionswitheachother,welearnmoreaboutthesun.Besidesbeingknowledgefor
knowledgessake,learningmoreaboutthesunisimportant,asitisthesourceofalllifeonearth,
andbeingonestepclosertofullyunderstandingitisnecessary.Understandinghowcoronalmass
ejectionsworkwithsolarflaresandsunspotswillfinally,allowforasmoothtransitionashuman
activityinspacebecomesmoreandmorecommon.Furtherexperimentationwillinvolve
buildinga3Dmodelofactiveregionemergence,aswellasmoredatacollectiontounderstand
howactiveregionemergenceworksatthecoreofthesun.

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