CML 2 - Statistics Probability

CML 2 Statistics &
Probability
GABRIEL RAYO
SACE NUMBER: 503732T

TUTOR: CHRIS BROOKES | TUTOR: 07
GABRIEL RAYO
CML 2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY
FACTUAL KNOWLEDGE:
Population and Sample sizes:
The definition of population is different from statistics from the meaning given to ordinary speeches.
Population in statistics is the collection of a population of people, animals, plants or things on which
people could collect data. These objects that people could collect data from could be quantity of lead in
urine, visits to the doctor, and surgical operations. For example, when someone uses the population of
England this usually means that the number of people inside Englands boundaries. This number could
be computed as a census of the population. There are certain circumstances where the population
cannot be computed to the exact number. This is when averages and standard deviations are taken
from populations. The standard deviation and averages taken from the population is called population
parameters. They are often denoted by Greek letters, the population mean is denoted by (mu) and
standard deviation is denoted as (low case sigma). (THe British Medical Journal, 2014)
As a population contains too many individuals to study usefully, a sample of the population is used to
investigate. The sample is hoped to draw conclusions valid conclusions about the population. This
sample will contain information about the population parameter, and the relationship between the
population and the sample must be such to allow true conclusions to be made about a population
through the sample. The sample should represent the general population, this can be achieved by
random sampling. This is so that one choice of one subject will not affect other subjects chosen. To find
the sample size for a known population, we can use the finite population factor (fpc) to determine the
sample size: (THe British Medical Journal, 2014)
=

+ ( 1)
Where no is the sample size without the consideration of the finite population, and where N is the number
of finite population(s) (West Chester University, N.A)
To find no use the equation: (estimating the mean)
=
2 2
2
Where Z is the Z-score, where the sampling error, and is the variance of the population values.
To find use the equation: (estimating the mean) (West Chester University, N.A)
=
To find no use the equation: (estimating the proportion) (West Chester University, N.A)
0 =
2 (1 )
2
Where p is the population proportion

To find use the equation: (estimating the proportion) (West Chester University, N.A)
(1 )
1
Dependent vs Independent events:
An event is independent when event A occurs and does not affect the probability of event B occurring.
This means that each event does not depend on the previous event. Examples of independent events
are: (MathIsFun, 2014)
Landing on head after tossing a coin and rolling a 5 on a single 6-sided die
GABRIEL RAYO
Choosing a marble from a jar and landing on heads after tossing a coin
You toss a coin and it comes up with Heads three times, what is the probability that the next
toss will be Head? (Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies, 1998-2014)
All of the events listed above does not depend on the evens that has occurred before them.
When a marble is taken out of a bag, and is replaced back into the bag. This event is an
independent event as when a marble is taken out of the bag on the second outcome, the
probabilities do not change since the marble is replaced back into the bag. This process is
called with replacement. (Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies, 1998-2014)
To find the probability of two independents that occur in sequence, find the probability of both events
and multiply them. Multiplication rule for two independent events:
When two events, A and B, are independent, the probability of both occurring is Mrs Glossers Math
Goodies, paragraph 10
( ) = () ()
(Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies, 1998-2014)
Here is an example using the Multiplication rule to work out the probability of two events:
A dresser drawer contains one pair of socks with each of the following colours: blue, brown, red, white
and black. Each pair is folded together in a matching set. You reach into the sock drawer and choose
a pair of socks without looking. You replace this pair and then choose another pair of socks. What is
the probability that you will choose the red pair of socks both times? Mrs Glossers Math Goodies,
paragraph 12
P (black) =
1
5
P (black and white) = P (black) * P (white)

=
1
5
1
5
The probability of picking a white is the same because you replaced the sock you took out on the first
event back. This does not change the probability of the second draw. (Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies,
1998-2014)
1
25
http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html, Accessed: 15/03/2014

An event is dependent when an outcome is affected by the previous outcome. In other words, the
occurrence of the first outcome affects the outcome or the second outcome. This changes the
probability of the second outcome. Here is an example of dependent events: (MathIsFun, 2011)
A red marble is chosen from a bag that contains red, blue, black, yellow, and white marble.
Without replacing the marble in the bag, what is the probability of taking a white out of the bag
This event contains two compound, dependent events. The probability of choosing a white marble on
the second pick given that even A (red marble) has already occurred is called conditional probability.
Conditional probability is the probability of an event when a given event has already occurred. The
notation for conditional probability is P (B/A), which is pronounced as the probability of event B given
A. To find the probability of two events, another multiplication rule is used. (Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies,
2014)
When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both occurring is Mrs Glossers Math
( ) = () ( )
GABRIEL RAYO
Using the example above, find the probability of two dependent events using the Multiplication rule:
Mr. Parietti needs two students to help him with a science demonstration for his class of 18 girls and
12 boys. He randomly chooses one student who comes to the front of the room. He then chooses a
second student from those still seated. What is the probability that both students chosen are girls?
Mrs Glossers Math Goodies, paragraph 15
Probabilities: P (Girl 1 and Girl 2) = P (Girl 1) and P (Girl 2/Girl1)
=
18 17
30 29
=
306
870
51
145
(Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies, 2014)

Use the language of ifthen, given, of, knowing that, as well as and in the context of
conditional statements and identify common mistakes in interpreting such language
Conditional statements are split into two parts a hypothesis, and a conclusion. The part if is represented
as p which is the hypothesis. The part then is represented as q which is the conclusion. Here is an
example of a conditional statement: If you do your chores then you will get your allowance. See how
the hypothesis connects to the conclusion. Conditional statements states that if your hypothesis (p) is
true then your conclusion (q) is also true. If there is a conditional statement that has a true hypothesis
but false conclusion must be a false statement. Conditional statements are also called as if-then
statement. (Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies, 2014), (Math Planet, N.A.), (Roberts, Conditional IF...THEN)
A conditional statement is symbolised by pq, this is read is if p then q. The sign is a logical
connector in a conditional statement. A truth table is usually presented to show pq, an example of a
truth table is shown in the picture below.
p
T
T
F
F
q
T
F
T
F
pq,
T
F
T
T

Where T is true, and F is false. The table above shows that if the hypothesis (p) is true and the
conclusion (q) is false, then it is false.
Here is an example of a conditional statement:
If I do my homework, then I get my allowance Mrs Glossers Math Goodies, paragraph 1
Conditional statements are a form of compound statements. Compound statements are sentences that
consists of two or more statements separated by a logical connector. (Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies,
2014)
If the position of the hypothesis and the conclusion has been switched the statement is now called a
converse statement: q p. In converse statements if the hypothesis and conclusion are either both
true or false, then the statement is true. Conditional and converse does not mean the same thing. Here
is an example of a converse statement: (Math Planet, N.A.), (Hotmath, N.A.)
If two angles have the same measure, then they have the same measure. Hotmath.com, paragraph
8
GABRIEL RAYO
This is how a truth table would look like for a converse statement:
p
T
T
F
F
q
T
F
T
F
F
F
T
T
F
T
F
T
Conditional
pq
T
F
T
T
Converse
q p
T
T
F
T
(Roberts, N.A.)
If the hypothesis and the conclusion are both negated, an inverse statement is produced. Inverse
statements are written like this ~ ~. The inverse statement is not always true because the
conditional probability is true. The inverse statement will be always be true, when the converse
statement is true. Here is an example of an inverse statement: (Math Planet, N.A.)
If two angles are not congruent, then they do not have the same measure. Hotmath.com, paragraph
8 (Hotmath, N.A.)
http://hotmath.com/hotmath_help/topics/converse-inverse-contrapositive.html, Accessed: 15/03/2014
This is how the truth table for inverse statement would look like
p
T
T
F
F
T
F
T
F
~
F
F
T
T
~
F
T
F
T
Conditional
pq,
T
F
T
T
Converse
q p
T
T
F
T
Inverse
~ ~
T
T
F
T
(Roberts, N.A.)
The last form of logic statements for conditional statements is a contrapositive statement. A
contrapositive statement is formed when a converse statement is negated, meaning that the hypothesis
and conclusion is switched and negated. Contrapositive statements does both jobs of inverse and
converse statements. Contrapositive statements always have the same truth value as the conditional
statement. This means that if the conditional statement is true, then the contrapositive statement is true.
This is how contrapositive statements are written: ~ ~. Here is an example of a contrapositive
statement: (Math Planet, N.A.)
If two angles do not have the same measure, then they are not congruent Hotmath.com, paragraph
8 (Hotmath, N.A.)
This is how the truth table for a contrapositive statement would look like
p
T
T
F
F
q
T
F
T
F
Conditional
T
F
T
T
Contrapositive
T
F
T
T
(Roberts, N.A.)
Conjunction is a mathematical statement that uses the word and to connect/ join two simple sentences.
This is a bit similar to conditional statements, but instead of using if p, then q, conjunctions use and.
The p and q are just mathematical statements, where p is the first mathematical statement, and q is the
second mathematical statement, and is joined by the word and. Conjunctional statements are also a
form of compound statement, as it contains two statements. (Morris, N.A.)
The logical connector that connects the two statements is . A conjunctional statement is symbolized
as p q. This symbol is read as p and q. A conjunction statement is always true when both statements
are true. If one of the statements is false, then the conjunction statement is false. A truth table can be
GABRIEL RAYO
constructed to show the truth values of conjunctional statements. Here is an example of a truth table
for conjunctional statements: (Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies, 2014)
p
T
T
F
F
q
T
F
T
F
pq
T
F
F
F
(Morris, N.A.)
Here is an example of a conjunctional statement:
Ann is on the softball team, and Paul is on the football team Vernon Morris, mathwarehouse.com,
paragraph 2
Another form of mathematical statements is the disjunction. Disjunctions are the opposite of
conjunctions. Disjunctions use the word or to join two statements. Disjunctions also use p and q to
symbolise two statements, as explained in the earlier parts of the CML. The difference between
conjunction and disjunction is that conjunction joins two statements by using the word and, but
disjunction use the word or to join the two statements. Disjunctions are also a form of compound
statements.
A disjunction statement is symbolised as p \/ q. The logical connector of disjunction statements is the
symbol \/, which is read as or. Disjunction statements also use truth tables to show their truth values.
Here is an example of the truth table for disjunction statements: (Morris, N.A.)
p
T
T
F
F
q
T
F
T
F
p \/ q
T
T
T
F

As seen on the truth table above, a disjunction statement is always true when either or both of its
statements is true, and a disjunction statement is false when both of the statements is false. (Morris,
N.A.)
There is one last form of mathematical statements, which is called bi-conditional statements. This form
of mathematical statement combinea conditional and conjunctional statements. Bi-conditional
statements are formed by combining two conditional statements by the word and. In other words, biconditional statements are conjunctions of two conditional statements. Also uses p and q as the symbol
for the two statements. Bi-conditional statements are also a form of compound statements. (Mrs
Glosser's Math Goodies, 2014)
Bi-conditional statements are symbolised as: ( ) ( ). In the first conditional statement, p is
the hypothesis, and q is the conclusion. This is the same with the second conclusion, where p is the
hypothesis, and q is the conclusion. A truth table can also be shown to represent the truth values for biconditional statement. Here is an example: (Roberts, 1998-2012)
p
T
T
F
F
q
T
F
T
F
p q
T
F
T
T
q p
T
T
F
T
(p q) (p q)
T
F
F
T

The bi-conditional statement is always true when both of the conditional statements is true, and false
when either of the statements is false. (Standford University, N.A.)
Set notation and language for events (complement of an event, union, and mutually exclusive)
GABRIEL RAYO
A set notation, or also known as set-builder notation is a set of numbers. The set-builder notation can
represent the domain or range of a function. This will be elaborated on later parts of this concept in this
CML. The things inside that are inside the set are called elements. These elements are listed inside
curly brackets/ braces to show that the elements are part of a set. Here is an example of how a set
would look like: (Stapel, 2005-2012) (University of Arizona, 2006)
{pillow, rumpled bedspread, a stuffed animal, one very fat cat whos taking a nap} Elizabeth Stapel,
purplemath.com, paragraph 2
This form of sets where the elements are listed explicitly, and does not use rules of mathematics are
often called roster sets.
Sets are unordered meaning that the elements in the set does not need to be listed in a specific format
or order. Sets are also usually named by capital letters such as A or X. This is not a rule in set notation,
but it is always used. For example, the set example used above would look like this: (Stapel, 20052012)
A = {one very fat cat whos taking a nap, pillow, rumpled bedspread, a stuffed animal} Elizabeth
Stapel, purplemath.com, paragraph 9
To say something is an element of a particular set, a symbol is used. That is symbol is a curvy capital
E that looks like this: . Here is an example of how you would write it to say something is an element
of a particular set: (Stapel, 2005-2012)
1
The example above is read as 1 is an element of A. The elements of a set can also be listed out
according to a rule. Here is an example: (Stapel, 2005-2012)
{x is a natural number, x <10}
This could also be written in set-builder notation, which would looks like this:
{| < 10}
The notation above is read as the set of all x, such that x is an element of the natural numbers and x is
less than 10. The vertical symbol in the set-builder notation set is read as such that, and it always comes
in between the name of the variable (x) youre using to stand for the elements in the set, and the rule
that specifies the elements in the set. This form of set notation is usually used for big sets that has too
many elements to be written down. An example is: (University of Arizona, 2006)
{| 0}
This set is read as The set of all real numbers x, such that x does not equal 0. This means that this set
contains all real numbers except for zero. There are a lot of real numbers so, the set is just shown as:
{| 0}
(University of Arizona, 2006)

There are two types of sets, finite and infinite sets. Finite sets are the sets that you can count or list the
elements in the set. An example of finite sets is:
A = {one very fat cat whos taking a nap, pillow, rumpled bedspread, a stuffed animal} Elizabeth
Stapel, purplemath.com, paragraph 9
This is because the set can be listed or counted.
An infinite set, are sets that you cannot list or count the elements in the set. An example of infinite sets
is:
{| 0}
A set that has no element is called an empty set and is represented as {} or Two sets are equal if
they have exactly the same element. (Basic-mathematics.com, 2008)
GABRIEL RAYO
When then elements of two sets are combined they are called as union of the two sets. The union of
the two sets (usually A and B) is obtained by gathering the same elements of the two sets, and is
represented as A B. Union sets could be used to connect real world concepts and topics.
Given that we have set A and set B, the union of the two sets is the elements or objects that belong to
either A or B or to both. The union of two sets is usually shown in a Venn diagram. Here is an example
of a union of two sets.
A = {1, 2, 3. 4, 5, 6}
B = {2, 4, 6}
(iCoachMath.com, 1998-2013)
As seen on the example above, the union of the sets A and B is the coloured parts in the Venn diagram.
(Basic-mathematics.com, 2008)
The complement of a set, is the set of all elements in the given universal set U (Venn diagram) that are
not in the set. The set is usually denoted as A or B. The complement of set A is written as A. In setbuilder notation the complement of set A will be written as: A = { | }. The complement of a
set could also be shown in a Venn diagram. Here is an example of a complement of a set in a Venn
diagram: (Minnesota State University, N.A.)
A = {a, b, c}
U = {d, f}
(Basic-mathematics.com, 2008)
You can also use the concept of complements in events, such as rolling a die. The complement of an
event is all the other possible outcomes of the event. The complement and the event make all the
possible outcomes for the event. For example, what is the complement of tossing a coin and landing a
heads? (Roberts, 1998-2012)
A = the coin shows a tails.
GABRIEL RAYO
The probability of a compliment event of occurring is one minus the probability of the event occurring.
For example, A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability of not rolling a doubles? (MathIsFun, 2012)
P (doubles) = 6/36 = 1/6
P (not doubles) = 1-1/6 = 6/6 1/6
= 5/6
Conditional probability and independence
Conditional probability is the probability of the second event occurring when an earlier event has already
occurred. Dependent events are a form of conditional probability as dependent events also calculate
the second event occurring when the first event has already occurred. As explained in the earlier parts
of this CML, this changes the probability of the second outcome. Independent events are also a form
of conditional probability. The notation for conditional probability is P (B/A), which is pronounced as the
probability of event B given A. (Yale University, N.A.)
Using the definition above, when events A and B are independent, the conditional probability of event
B given event A is simply the probability of event B. This is because that event A has no effect on event
B, and thus having the same probability. If events A and B are independent then they are written as:
(Cut-The-Knot.org, 1996-2014)
P (|)= P (A) which is the same as P(|) = P (B)
This could also be written as P (A ) = P (A) P (B).
For dependent events, the conditional probability formula can be derived from the multiplication rule of
dependent events.
When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both occurring is Mrs Glossers Math
( ) = () (|)
First step is to divide both sides of the equation by P (A)
( )
() (|)
=
()
()
The P (A) on the right side of the equation cancels each other out, thus the equation would look like:
( )
= (|)
()
Commute the equation, and the formula for conditional probability has been derived.
(|) =
( )
()

Here is an example of conditional probability being used:
A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class passed both tests and 42% of the class
passed the first test. What percent of those who passed the first test also passed the second test?
Mrs Glossers Math Goodies, mathgoodies.com, paragraph 1
P ( |) =
P (|) =
( )
()
0.25
0.42
= 0.60 = 60%

8
GABRIEL RAYO
Year 12
Central Limit Theorem
The central limit theorem and the law of large numbers are the two fundamental theorems of probability.
The central limit theorem is the second law of probability, which explains why many distributions tend
to be close to the normal distribution. This theorem states that if Sn is the sum of n, a mutually
independent variable, then the distribution functionns of Sn, is well approximated by a certain type of
continuous function known as a normal density function Dartmouth College, paragraph 1, (Dartmouth,
N.A.)
The theory is given by the formula:
lim (
) = ()
(California State University, N.A.)

Where () is the probability that a standard normal random variable is less than x. The formula above
is what is called the sample sum. To get S we sum the random sample XiXn. This can be simplified
by using a sigma sign. (Hildebrand, N.A.)
= =1 , where Xi is approximately normal N (n, n2). (Hildebrand, N.A.)
There is also another formula used in Central Limit Theorem called the sample mean: (Hildebrand,
N.A.)
=
1
To find we use the equation on: = =1 where Xi is approximately normal N(n, n2/ n)
The Central Limit Theorem tells us the general effects when we have the sum of a large number of
independent random variables that contributes a small amount to the total. The Central Limit Theorem
also describes the population of the means that has been created from the means of an infinite number
of random samples of size (N). All of them are drawn from a given parent population. The CLT (Central
Limit Theorem) predicts the population of the means regardless of the distribution of the parent
population. (Hildebrand, N.A.), (University of Athens, N.A.)
Standard Normal Distribution
A standard normal distribution is a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.
Areas under the curve of a standard normal distribution can be found using a standard normal table.
But first what is a normal distribution. A normal distribution is the most widely known of all the other
distributions as it approximates many natural problems that it has become the standard of reference for
many probability problems. (State University of New York, N.A.)
As certain data is graphed as a histogram, it creates a bell-shaped curve known as the normal curve.
This curve is known as the normal distribution. Normal distributions are symmetrical in shape, with the
mean/average of the data as the peak of the curve. The shape normal distributions produce are called
bell-shaped curves with the graph falling off evenly on both sides of the mean. Fifty percent of the
distribution is on the left side of the mean, and the other fifty percent is on the right side of the mean.
The spread of a data is controlled by the standard deviation, which is symbolised as . The smaller the
standard deviation of a data set, the more concentrated it is. Also the mean and the median in a normal
distribution are the same. Here is an example of what a normal distribution looks like: (Robers, 19982012)
GABRIEL RAYO
(Robers, 1998-2012)
What the chart means above, is that 19.1% of the sample is in the interval between the mean and 0.5
standard deviation away from the mean. When the percentages are added together they would add up
to 100%. The intervals is the amount of difference of standard deviation away is from the mean. For
example, the interval 0.5. That particular interval is 0.5 standard deviations above the mean. Say, that
your standard deviation is 5, and your mean is 10. The interval 0.5 is 0.5 of the standard deviation
added to the mean. In this case, 5*0.5 = 2.5. Then 10 + 2.5 = 12.5. This means that the values between
the mean and 12.5 in a sample is in the interval between 0 and 0.5. As seen from the chart above,
19.1% of normally distributed data is located between the peak (mean) and the 0.5 mark of the standard
deviation either to the left or to the right of the mean. (Robers, 1998-2012)j
As the percentages are added together you will approximately see that:
68% of the distribution lies within one standard distribution of the mean
95% of the distribution lies within two standard distribution of the mean
99.7% of the distribution lies within three standard distribution of the mean
These percentages are known as the empirical rule.

Here are some examples of
There is a rule for normal distributions. This rule is called the normal density function: (University of
Notre Dame, N.A.)
(; , ) =
1
2 2
2 /2 2
()
Where 2 is the variance, and is the mean. The notation N (, 2) means normally distributed with
mean and variance 2. (Roberts, 1998-2012)
To make things easier for us, we usually work with standardized normal distribution, where the mean
() equals to 0, and the standard deviation () equals to 1. This is where we get to standard normal
distribution. There are several steps in using the standardized normal distribution: (University of Notre
Dame, N.A.)
First, the problem must be converted into an equivalent normal variable measured in standardized
deviation units, called standardized normal variable. To do this, if X ~ N (, 2), meaning X is distributed
N (, 2). Then: (University of Notre Dame, N.A.)
=

~N (0, 1) =0, =1
If necessary, the equation can be put back into the original units of measurement. To do this, we simply
multiply both sides by and then add to both sides from the Z formula. (University of Notre Dame,
N.A.)
= +
10
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Since = 1 in standard normal distributions, if Z = 2, the outcome of X will be exactly 2 standard
deviations above the mean. If Z = -1, then the outcome of X will be one standard deviation below the
mean. If Z = 0, then X = the mean. (University of Notre Dame, N.A.)
There are many things that follow a Normal Distribution. Here are some examples:
Heights of people
Size of things produced by machines
Errors in measurements
Blood pressure
Marks on a test
Now, that we know what a normal distribution is, we can elaborate more on standard normal
distributions. The normal random variable of a standard normal distribution is called a standard z-score
or a z-score. Every normal random variable can be transformed into a z-score using the following
equation: (University of Notre Dame, N.A.)
= ( )/
Where X is a normal random variable, is the mean of X, and is the standard deviation of X.
As explained before areas under a curve can be measured using a standard normal table. This table
shows a cumulative probability associated with a particular z-score. A cumulative probability refers to
the probability of a random variable falling within a specific range. Cumulative probabilities refers to the
probability that a random variable will be less than, greater than or equal to a specific value.
Here is an example of the table for Standard Normal Distribution Table:
Picture from, http://stattrek.com/probability-distributions/standard-normal.aspx,

6/04/2014, (StatTrek.com, 2014)
11
Accessed:
GABRIEL RAYO
Here is an example of the table being used to calculate the percentages of a population
Percentage of Population between 0 and 0.45:
To find the percentage of the population start at the row for 0.4, and then read along until 0.45. The
value would be 0.1736 which also means 17.36%. Therefore, the percentage of the population between
0.4 and 0.45 is 17.36%. (MathIsFun, 2013)
Binomial Distribution
There are many cases where it is appropriate to summarize a group of independent observations by
the number of observations in the group that has one or two outcomes. (Yale University, 1997-1998)
To help understand binomial distributions, we must first understand binomial experiments and some of
the associated notation such is n, and p. A binomial experiment, which is also known as a Bernoulli
Trials) is a statistical experiment with the following characteristics: (StatTrek.com, 2014)
The experiment consists of n repeated trials

Each experiment must only consist of two outcomes. These outcomes could either be success
or failures
The probability of success P is the same on each outcome
The trials are independent, meaning that one outcome does not affect other ouctomes.
For the notations in the formulas for binomial distributions/experiments:

X: is the number of successful trials that results from a binomial experiment
n: is the number of trials in a binomial experiment
P: The probability of success on an individual trial
Q: The probability of failure on an individual trial, which equals to 1 P
b(x; n, P): is the Binomial probability the probability that a trial in the binomial experiment results
exactly x successes, when the probability of success on an individual trial is P Stat Trek, paragraph
17, http://stattrek.com/probability-distributions/binomial.aspx, Accessed: 16/04/2014
nCr:
is the number of combinations (StatTrek.com, 2014)
A binomial random variable is the number of x successes in n number of trials in a binomial experiment.
The probability distribution of a binomial variable is called the Binomial Distribution, also known as the
Bernoulli distribution. A binomial distribution has the following properties: (StatTrek.com, 2014)
The mean (x) of the distribution is: n * P
The variance (2x) of the distribution is: n * P * (1 P)
The standard deviation (x) of the distribution is the square root of the variance. (StatTrek.com, 2014)
As explained before the Binomial probability is the probability that a binomial experiment has exactly x
successful results. Given that we have, x, n, and P, the formula for binomials can be computed:
Suppose a binomial experiment consists of n trials and results in x successes. If the probability of
success on an individual trial is P, then the binomial probability is:- Stat Trek, paragraph 26,
http://stattrek.com/probability-distributions/binomial.aspx, Accessed: 16/04/2014
b(x; n, P) = () (1 )
!
( )=
! ( )!
This is often called as a combination. But in binomial terms it is often called as n choose x.
Combinations will be elaborated on Understand and use combination notation and formula. Note: !
means factorial. For example, the number of ways to achieve 2 heads of a set of four tosses (4 chooses
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GABRIEL RAYO
2). This could also be shown as 4! /2! *2!, which equals 4*3*2*1/ 2*1 *2*1 = 6. (Yale University, 19971998)
Here is an example of a binomial distribution:
You say 70% chose chicken, so 7 of the next 10 customers should choose chicken. What are the
chances you are right? MathisFun, paragraph 29, http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/binomialdistribution.html, Accessed: 16/04/2014, (MathIsFun, 2013)
P = 7/10
n = 10
x=7
Using the binomial formula:
b(x; n, P) = (10
) 7/107 (1 7/10)107
7
First work out 10 chooses 7:
(
10
10!
)=
7
7! (10 7)!
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
( )=
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 (3 2 1)
7! 7!
Therefore we have() =
1098
(321)
which equals to 120.
b(x; n, P) = 120 7/107 (1 7/10)107

Now we can simplify the equation:
b(x; n, P) = 120 0.0823543 0.027
b(x; n, P) = 0.267 (rounded to 3 decimal places)
There is a 26.7% chance that 7 out of the next 10 customers will choose chicken. (MathIsFun, 2013)
PROCEDURAL KNOWLEDGE:
Calculate five number summaries and use its graphical representation, the box-whisker plot, to
compare centre and spread of data sets
Five-number summary: The five number summary consists of the minimum, maximum, the median, and
the upper and lower quartiles.
The maximum is the greatest number in a data set. For example, if I had a set of {80, 54, 83, 92, 88,
99, 81, 94}. The maximum out of the data set would be 99 as it is the largest number in the data set.
When finding the maximum, the data set doesnt have to be set out from least to greatest. But by setting
out the data from least to greatest could be very useful for finding the maximum as the maximum number
is always the greatest number, and could easily be found.
The minimum is the lowest number in a data set. Using the data set from above, the minimum number
of the data set would be 54 as it is the smallest number in the data set. Setting out the data from least
to greatest is also a good way of finding the minimum number for a data set, because the minimum
number is always going to be the first number when arranged from least to greatest.
The median is the middle number when the data is arranged from least to greatest. Although some
data sets actually have a middle number, this is usually when the data set is counted and the result is
an odd number. For example, the data set {80, 54, 83, 92, 88, 99, 81, 94} does not have a middle
number since the data set is an even number. To find the median of an even data set, arrange the
data from least to greatest, like this: {54, 80, 81, 83, 88, 92, 94, 99}. Take the two middle numbers of
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GABRIEL RAYO
the data set, which is 82, and 87, and add them together. Then divide them by the amount of numbers
that were added, which was 2. This is to get an average or mean of the two numbers. Now you have
got the median of the data set.
Here is how to find the median of an even data set step by step:
83+88 = 171
171/2 = 85.5 The sum was divided by two because that was the amount of numbers being added,
this is usually the number used to find the median because you are only adding two numbers.
The median for the data set {80, 54, 83, 92, 88, 99, 81, 94} is 85.5. The median in a five number
summary is symbolised as Q2
The upper and lower quartiles are the median of the upper and lower halves of the data set. To find the
upper and lower quartiles arrange the data from least to greatest. Find the median, which is the middle
number. The numbers that are lower than the median number is the lower half of the data, and the
numbers that are higher than the median number is the upper half of the data. The median of the upper
half is the upper quartile, and the median of the lower half is the lower quartile. Do the same steps done
on median when either or both of the quartiles are even. Meaning that the data is even when counted
the numbers in the data. The lower quartile in the five-number summary is symbolised as Q1, and the
upper quartile in the five number summary is symbolised as Q3.
Example: Consider the set (1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9)
Minimum number is: 1

Data is already arranged from least to greatest. Lower half is (1, 3, 4) and the middle is 3.
Therefore the lower quartile is 3
Median is 5 (the data set is an odd data set which means that there is an actual value for the
median, which is 5}
Upper half is (6, 7, 9), and the middle number is 7. Therefore upper quartile is 7
Maximum number is: 9
The quartile five-number summary can be graphed with a box and whisker plot. As a matter of fact, you
cannot graph a box and whisker plot without a five number summary. An example of a box and whisker
plot is shown below using the five number summary calculated above.
Minimum
Lower quartile
Median
Upper quartile
Maximum
Box and whisker plots can also be used to find quartile distributions. Quartile distributions are the
minimum, lower quartile, median, and upper quartile, but these are called first quartile, second quartile,
median, and third quartile in quartile distribution language.
Box and whisker plots does not show a much detailed distribution of the data compared to the stem
and leaf plot or the histogram. However, box and whisker plots are very useful in comparing two or
more data sets, and has very large numbers. They are also very useful in indicating whether a
distribution is skewed or not, or whether there are outliers in the data set. Using the box and whisker
plot example above, we can see that the distribution of the data is more negatively skewed. (Statistics
Canada, 2013)
As there many ways to describe the centre and the spread of a data set, the box and whisker plot is
one way of showing this information through the five-number summary. The median is used to show
the centre value of the data, and the quartiles show how spread out the data set is. (Statistics Canada,
2013)
Calculate quartile and interquartile ranges:
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GABRIEL RAYO
As explained in the earlier parts of this CML, Calculate five number summaries, to find the quartiles of
a data set you have to first arrange the data from least to greatest. There are four quartiles that divide
the set into four equal parts. The values that divide the each part of the data set are called first (Q1),
second (Q2), and third (Q3) quartiles. The first quartile is the median of the lower half of a rank-ordered
data set, the second quartile is the median of a rank-ordered data set, and the third quartile is the
median of the upper half of a rank order set. Here is an example of how to find the quartiles in a data
set: (StatTrek.com, 2014)
For this data set {15, 13, 18, 19, 20, 19, 17, 16} arrange the data first from least to greatest to find the
quartiles of a data set: {13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 19, 20}. After the set has been re-arranged, find the
median (also known as the second quartile) of the set in this case we will have to find it by adding the
two middle numbers and dividing by 2.
17 + 18 = 35
35/2 = 17.5
Once the median has been found for the data set, in our case 17.5, the numbers that are lower than
the median is the lower half of the data, and the numbers that are higher than the median is the upper
half of the data. To find the first quartile of a data set, find the median of the lower half. In this example
the lower half of the data set is {13, 15, 16, 17}. We will have to find the first quartile by adding the two
middle numbers and dividing by 2 since the set is an even set.
15 + 16 = 31
31/2 = 15.5
Now the first quartile has been found for the data set {13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 19, 20}. To find the third
quartile of a data set, do the same steps as finding the first quartile but instead use the upper half of the
data set which is: {18, 19, 19, 20}.
The two middle numbers of the upper half is 19 and 19, therefore to find the median:
19 + 19 = 38
38/2 = 19
The three values that divide the data set {13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 19, 20} into four equal parts is Q1=15.5,
Q2=17.5, Q3=19.
The ranges between the three values can also be found. This is what is called as Interquartile Range
abbreviated as IQR. This is used to measure the spread of the middle values of a data set. Could also
be used in box and whisker plots to measure the width of the box in a box and whisker plot. The IQR
can also determine when other values are too far from the central value. The points that are too far
away are called outliers, since they lie outside the range we expect a certain value to be. (Statistics
Canada, 2013) (StatTrek.com, 2014) (Stapel, 2004-2014)
To find the Inter Quartile Range, just subtract the upper quartile (Q3) by the lower quartile (Q1)
Q3 Q1
Using the lower and upper quartiles above, the interquartile range of data set {13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19,
19, 20} is 19 15.5. The Interquartile Range for data set {13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 19, 20} is 3.5
Use box plots, histograms, and dot plots to compare data sets and draw conclusions:
Box plots: A box and whisker plot is a graphical representation of a statistical data in which a rectangle
is drawn to represent the first and third quartile with a vertical line to represent the median value of a
data set. The data sets are assumed to be clustered around a central value. The box of the box and
whisker plot highlights the middle half of the data sets. (Stapel, 2004-2014)
As explained in the earlier parts of this CML, Calculate five number summaries, to create a box and
whisker plot, you need the five number summary. The five number summary consists of the minimum
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GABRIEL RAYO
(lowest number in the data set), maximum (highest number in the data set), median (central value of
the data set), first quartile, and the third quartile.
The minimum and maximum are the whiskers of the box and whisker plot or box plot. They are
represented as vertical lines on either sides of the box of the box plot. Usually the minimum is on the
left side of the box plot, and the maximum is on the right side of the box plot. The box plot usually needs
a number line to represent each different number on the data set. By using a number line, the box plot
can be graphed accurately. The box of the box plot consists of the first quartile, median, and the third
quartile. The first quartile (also known as the lower quartile) is represented as the left vertical line of the
box, and the upper quartile is the right vertical line of the box. This creates a box that represents the
middle half of the data, and the median is always inside the box. The median doesnt have to be in the
middle of the box plot, it depends on the median value for a data set. Here is an example of how a box
plot looks like:
Minimum
Lower quartile
Median
Upper quartile
Maximum
Histograms: Histograms are like bar graphs, but histograms doesnt have any gaps between the bars.
This is because histograms represent continuous data. Continuous data are data like a persons height.
Histograms can be graphed from frequency tables, when a histogram is graphed from a frequency table
they are called frequency histograms. Frequency histograms will be elaborated on later in this topic.
The intervals that is gathered from the table are placed on the x-axis. (State University of New York,
N.A.)
The intervals are quantitive data that can be measured, such as a persons height. The intervals of a
histogram can be labelled as single values or a range of values. The find the intervals of a histogram,
you have to first determine the amount of intervals. A good way of finding the amount of intervals is to
find the square root of the number of observation. For example, if you had 50 observations the square
root of 50 will be the amount of intervals for the histogram. Which is 7.07, this could be rounded down
to 7 intervals. To find the width or the range of the interval, divide the range of the data set by the
number of intervals. (Wisc-Online, 2002-2005)
Range/# Intervals.
Using the set {13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 19, 20}, what is the intervals when being graphed in a histogram.
Number of intervals = 8 (square root of the amount of observation)
= 2.8 can be rounded up to 3
Range = 20-13 = 7 (highest value lowest value)
The width of the intervals = 7/3 (range/number of intervals)
= 2.3 which can be rounded down to 2
The shape of histograms may vary by changing the size of the interval. The shape of a histogram can
be described as symmetrical (graph is even, and shows a bell curve), or skewed to one side of the xaxis (low end or high end of x-axis). Here is an example of a histogram with a range of values as the
intervals: (StatTrek.com, 2014)
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GABRIEL RAYO
Histogram 1
(StatTrek.com, 2014)
The histogram above is positively skewed, because when a line regression is shown to represent the
data, it would be slanted to the left side. When a graph is slanting more on the left side, we call that a
positively skewed graph.
The height of the bar in a frequency histogram depends on how frequent the statistical data fits certain
parts of the interval. For the example above, the intervals used are the age groups, against the income
of each age group. As you can see more people have higher pay rates when they are in the age of 4554. (Roberts, 1998-2012)
Dot plots: A dot plot is a type of graphical display used to compare the frequency counts within
categories or groups. In other words, dot plots compare how much a category or groups is picked. Dot
plots uses dots to represent the frequency of a category or group being chosen. The larger the amount
of dots in a column of a dot plot, the more frequent the category is chosen. The dot plot can also be
used to show how frequent an object is at a specific location. For example, the number of various kinds
of snakes in a zoo can be shown with a dot plot. Here is an example of a zoo that has calculated the
number of various kinds of snakes in the zoo, and plotted the data in a dot plot: (StatTrek.com, 2014)
(iCoachMath, 1998-2013)
http://stattrek.com/statistics/charts/dot-plot.aspx, Accessed: 19/03/2014
http://www.icoachmath.com/math_dictionary/dot_plot.html, Accessed: 19/03/2014
Dot plot 1
(iCoachMath, 1998-2013)
Each dot in the dot plot represents a specific number of from a set of data. If the dot represents more
than one observation, it should be noted on the plot. The pattern in a dot plot can be shown as the
skewness of the graph (either positive or negative) or the symmetry of the graph. This can only be done
with categories that are quantitive, which are rare for dot plots. Dot plots usually have qualitive data,
which means that the data cannot be measured but can be observed, and usually deals with
descriptions of objects. A good example of this is the dot plot example above, the data uses a qualitive
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GABRIEL RAYO
data since the data gathered can only be observed (the various kinds of snakes in the zoo). You cannot
measure the various kinds of snakes in the zoo with any kind of ruler. (Roberts, 1998-2012)
(StatTrek.com, 2014)
Use scatter plots to investigate relationships between two numerical variables (especially when
the independent variable is time)
Scatter plots shows the relationship between two variables. They graph pairs of numerical data with
one variable on each axis (x-axis and y-axis). The independent variable is usually on the x-axis, and
the dependent variable is usually on the y-axis. The data are plotted as points on the graph. If the
variables are correlated, the points fall along a regression curve. Regression curves can be represented
as a line. The better the correlation of the variable, the tighter the points will hug the line. (American
Society for Quality, 2004)
The correlation is a statistical technique that is used to measure and describe the strength and direction
of the relationship of between two variables. Correlation needs two variables from the same individual.
For example, measuring the current of a circuit when a certain amount of electrical power is put in the
circuit. There are two variables (current and voltage) gathered from one individual (circuit). The pairs of
variables can be graphed in a scatter plot. (Eberly College of Science, N.A.) (Anon., N.A.)
Example of scatter plot:
This graph is from my BiQ experiment last year.
Maximum Frequency each Age group can hear

(Average)
Frequency (Hz)
20,000
15,000
15,028
15,329
15,127
12,444
10,783
10,000
5,000
0
10 to 20
20 to 30
30 to 40
40 to 50
50+
Age groups
Graph 1
Scatter plots are also useful in the early stages of data analyzing. This step is before fitting a regression
curve. The regression curve is a line that best represents the trend of the plot. The regression curve
represents the correlation of the scatter plot. The regression curve also represents the relationship
between the two variables. This is because the regression curve shows the average distribution of the
data. This determines whether the data has positive association, or a negative association.
Chapter 7, Scatterplots, Association, Correlation, Accessed: 21/03/2014
If the graph has a positive association, one variable increases (independent variable) as the other
variable increases (dependent variable). If a graph has a negative association, one variable increases
(independent variable) as the other variable decreases (dependent variable). Here is an example of
positive and negative associations:
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GABRIEL RAYO
Demonstrate and evaluate the use of statistics in real world contextual examples:
This is data gathered from real world experiments (BiQ experiment last year).
Maximum Frequency each Age group can hear

(Average)
Frequency (Hz)
20,000
15,000
15,028
15,127
15,329
12,444
10,783
10,000
5,000
0
10 to 20
20 to 30
30 to 40
40 to 50
50+
Age groups
Graph 2
Looking at Graph 2 it is slightly positive skewed. The data shown can be used to make conclusions
about a number of things. These conclusions may be that as people age their hearing senses degrade,
thus minimizing the maximum frequency they can hear. A line regression can also be used to show how
accurate the data is from the true value. A true value is the actual population value obtained with perfect
measuring instruments and without errors of any type.
From making graphs like these, students such as me, can develop statistical thinking. Statistical thinking
is thinking for the need for the data, the importance of data production, the omnipresence of variability
and the measuring and modelling of variability. Statistical thinking can be crucial in real life, as it will
help people to make rational decisions about the things they will do or are doing.
Another example of a real world data is from my Biochemical Plant Experiment last year:
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GABRIEL RAYO
Height of Plants (in cm)
Average Plant growth when hormones are added

over 3 weeks
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Days
Water
Smash
Root Strike
Gibberellins
Graph 3
Looking from the graph above, the most effective hormone to use for plant growth is root strike. Water
is dominant over all, but root strike produced the tallest plant in 3 weeks. The graph shows a negatively
skewed skewness. The results in the graph shows the average of the heights of the plants. Looking at
the results, it wasnt close to the true value. The gibberellin was supposed to grow the most as it
encourages cell division and stimulation.
Calculate the mean and standard deviation and use these to compare data sets:
To calculate the mean of a set add all of the elements (numbers) in the set, and divide the sum by the
amount of observations (amount of elements in the set) in the set. Using the set {80, 54, 83, 92, 88, 99,
81, 94}, find the mean of the set. (MathIsFun, 2014)
80 + 54 + 83 + 92 + 88 + 99 + 81 + 94 = 671
671/8 = 83.9 the amount of elements in the set is 8, thus the sum of the elements is divided by 8 to
get the mean of {80, 54, 83, 92, 88, 99, 81, 94}.
The standard deviation is the measure of how far the numbers are from the normal. In other words, the
standard deviation is the measure of how spread out the numbers are in a set. The population standard
deviation is symbolised as the Greek letter . The method of finding the standard deviation is to square
root the variance. The variance is the average of the squared differences from the Mean. There are two
ways to find the variance, one for finding the sample variance (when using a sample), and the population
variance (when using a population): (MathIsFun, 2014) (Helmenstine, 2014)
To find the sample variance, you first have to calculate the mean of the data set. For each element
(number) in the data set, subtract the mean, and square the result. The results is what is called the
squared difference. Add up the squared difference. To find the sample variance, divide the squared
difference by the number of elements in the data set subtracted by one. (Helmenstine, 2014)
Using the data set {80, 54, 83, 92, 88, 99, 81, 94} find the sample variance: (Helmenstine, 2014)
Calculate the mean of the data set:
80 + 54 + 83 + 92 + 88 + 99 + 81 + 94 = 671
671/8 = 83.9
For each of the elements subtract the mean and square the results:
(80 83.9)2 = (-3.9)2 = 15.21
(54 83.9)2 = (-29.9)2 = 894.01
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GABRIEL RAYO
(83 83. )2 = (-.9)2 = 0.81
(92 83.9)2 = (8.1)2 = 65.65
(88 83.9)2 = (4.1)2 = 16.81
(99 83.9)2 = (15.1)2 = 228.01
(81 83.9)2 = (-2.9)2 = 8.41
(94 83.9)2 = (10.1)2 = 102.01
Add up the squared differences:
15.21 + 894.01 + 0.81 + 65.65 + 16.81 + 228.01 + 8.41 + 102.01 = 1,314.11
To find the sample variance, divide the sum of the squared difference by the number of elements in the
data set subtracted by one (this is called the Bessels correction).
1,314
81
There are 8 elements in the data set, thus you divide the sum of the squared difference by 8
1
The sample variance for the data set is: 187.7 (Helmenstine, 2014)
To find the sample standard deviation square root the sample variance, a formula for the standard
deviation is shown below.
To find the population variance do the same steps as finding the sample variance except at the end, do
not subtract the number of elements by 1.
Using the data set {80, 54, 83, 92, 88, 99, 81, 94} find the population variance:
Calculate the mean of the data set:
80 + 54 + 83 + 92 + 88 + 99 + 81 + 94 = 671
671/8 = 83.9
(80 83.9)2 = (-3.9)2 = 15.21
(54 83.9)2 = (-29.9)2 = 894.01
(83 83. )2 = (-.9)2 = 0.81
(92 83.9)2 = (8.1)2 = 65.65
(88 83.9)2 = (4.1)2 = 16.81
(99 83.9)2 = (15.1)2 = 228.01
(81 83.9)2 = (-2.9)2 = 8.41
(94 83.9)2 = (10.1)2 = 102.01
15.21 + 894.01 + 0.81 + 65.65 + 16.81 + 228.01 + 8.41 + 102.01 = 1,314.11
To find the population variance, divide the sum of the squared difference by the number of elements in
a data set.
1,314
8
The population variance is: 164.25
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GABRIEL RAYO
To find the population standard deviation, just square root the population variance. The formula for
finding the population standard deviation is shown below.
There are two formulas at which the standard deviation of a data set can be found. If the data set is
gathered from a population, you use the formula: (MathIsFun, 2014)
Picture
from:http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-deviation-formulas.html,
Accessed:
22/03/2014
The equation that is inside square root is the variance. Squaring the variance is what gives you the
standard deviation of a sample. Let us look more into how the formula for population standard deviation
is set out. (MathIsFun, 2014)
The first step in finding the standard deviation is to calculate the squared difference, which is done by
calculating the mean, subtracting the mean for each value in the set, and squaring the results. In the
formula above, this sequence is represented as: (MathIsFun, 2014)
( )2
Where represents each value in the set, and represents the mean of the set. This equation can be
seen in the examples above: (MathIsFun, 2014)
(80 83.9)2 = (-3.9)2 = 15.21
(54 83.9)2 = (-29.9)2 = 894.01
(83 83. )2 = (-.9)2 = 0.81
(92 83.9)2 = (8.1)2 = 65.65
(88 83.9)2 = (4.1)2 = 16.81
(99 83.9)2 = (15.1)2 = 228.01
(81 83.9)2 = (-2.9)2 = 8.41
(94 83.9)2 = (10.1)2 = 102.01
The part where the squared difference is added, is shown as the sigma symbol:
( )2
=1
Where N represents the number of values in the set. What the equation above means is sum all values
from (1 )2 to ( )2 . Where is the last value in the data set, and 1 is the first value of the data
set. This can be seen in the example above: (MathIsFun, 2014)
15.21 + 894.01 + 0.81 + 65.65 + 16.81 + 228.01 + 8.41 + 102.01 = 1,314.11
The next step in finding the standard deviation of a population is to divide the sum of the squared
difference [( )2 ]. This is done by multiplying 1/N to the sum of the squared difference. This is
represented in the formula by: (MathIsFun, 2014)
1
2
( )
=1
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GABRIEL RAYO
This equation is what you would call the Variance. To find the population standard deviation square
root the population variance, which is shown in the formula as: (MathIsFun, 2014)
1
( )2
=1
If the data set is gathered from a sample of a population, you use the formula: (MathIsFun, 2014)
For the sample standard deviation formula, the mean is represented differently, and finding the variance
is different from the finding the population variance. The steps are the same for finding the sample
standard deviation is the same steps for finding population standard deviation. (MathIsFun, 2014)
You start by subtracting the mean of a set for each number in the set, and squaring the results. This
gives you the squared difference. This is represented in the formula as: (MathIsFun, 2014)
( )2
Where represents each value in the set, and represents the mean of the set.
The next step is to add the squared differences up, this is represented in the formula as:
( )2
=1
Where N represents the number of values in the data set. This means is that the sum of the values from
(1 )2 to ( )2 . Where 1 is the first value in the data set, and is the last value in the data set.
The next step is divide the sum of the squared difference by the number of values in the data set
subtracted by one. This could also be done by multiplying the sum of the squared difference by 1/N-1
(MathIsFun, 2014)
1
( )2
1
=1
The equation above is the equation for finding the variance of a sample. To find the sample standard
deviation square root the sample variance. This is represented in the formula as: (MathIsFun, 2014)
1
( )2
1
=1
Year 12
, )for a Sample and N(, )
Sample and Population for Normal distribution summaries: N(
A sample distribution is a theoretical probability distribution. This theory shows the functional relation
between possible values of a given statistic based upon a sample of n cases. It is also associated with
the probability (density) of each value for all possible sample size of n drawn from a particular
population. The sampling distribution is not the same as the population distribution. However, sampling
distributions are described the same as population distribution, such as the mean, the variance, the
standard deviation, the shape, etc. (University of Illinois, 2005)
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GABRIEL RAYO
Since the sampling distribution is described the same as the population distribution, then if the
population has a mean, variance, and standard deviation: (University of Illinois, 2005)
The mean of the sampling distribution of the statistic equals the population mean of that
statistic, . But the sample mean is denoted as
The variance of the sampling distribution is equal to the population variance divided by the
sample size n, 2/n
The standard deviation of the sampling distribution, also known as the standard error of
estimate, is given by: /
(University
of
Illinois,
2005)
http://courses.education.illinois.edu/EdPsy580/lectures/4SampDist_CLT_estimation_05_online
.pdf, Accessed: 17/04/2014
The sampling distribution can be understood more, if is understood more. This includes the
behaviours of . this could be shown with the Central Limit Theorem.
The Central Limit Theorem states that averages, such as all have a certain type of probability
distribution called the Normal Distribution. The Central Limit Theorem also states that the distribution
of will be Normal no matter the distribution the original data may have. There are three properties of
the Sample Mean summary: (University of Washington, N.A.)
1. Unbiased: E() =
What this means is the expected value of the sample mean the true population mean. Thus the
mean of the sampling distribution equals the population mean.
2. Standard Error: () =
As explained before the standard error is the standard deviation of distribution. This is why as
the standard deviation increases, the standard error increases.
3. Approximate Normality:
By the Central Limit Theorem, for large n, the distribution of should approximately be Normal.
In summaries, 1-3 says: For large n, (,
Here is an example:
24
) (University of Washington, N.A.)
GABRIEL RAYO
The histogram above shows the distribution of birthweights at a Boston hospital. Estimate the
probability that the mean birthweight of the next 20 babies born will be greater than 120 oz. courses.washington.edu/dphs568/course/day6.doc, Accessed: 17/04/2014. To work this out first must
determine the variables: the mean is already given to us which is 112, and the standard deviation is
also given to us 20.6, and our sample size is 20. Therefore is approximately N (, 2/n) = N(112, 21.2)
(Stony Brook University, 2010)
120
Hence, ( > 120) = ( 20.6 >
20
120112
20.6
20
) ( > 1.74) = 0.0409 (University of Washington, N.A.)
There is a 40% chance that the next 20 babies born will have a weight greater than 120 oz. (A-Level
Maths, N.A.) (University of Sydney, 2010)
PROBABILITY
Calculate the probability of an Event occurring using:
Tree diagrams
Firstly, what are tree diagrams? Tree diagrams are graphical representations of a sequence of events.
They are very useful in probability as they convey all the possible probabilities of events occurring if
there are multiple outcomes, in a clear and uncomplicated manner. Using tree diagrams calculate the
probability of getting a heads when a coin is flipped, and rolling a 4 in a six sided die.
Picture is from: http://nrich.maths.org/7288, Accessed: 26/03/2014, (University of Cambridge, 19972014)

This example, is a simplified version of the tree diagram for landing a heads and rolling a 4, but the
diagram does show the probabilities of landing a heads and rolling a 4 which is important. To find the
probability of two events occurring, multiply the first event by the second event as shown in the earlier
parts of this CML in, Dependent vs Independent Events. In this case, multiply the probability of landing
1 1
1
on heads, and rolling a 4: = . Now the probability will change if the question is asking the
2 6
12
probability of landing a heads or rolling a 4. The question above was asking the probability of landing a
heads and rolling a 4. As seen on the tree diagram above, the green branch is the branch that we want
to go on. (University of Cambridge, 1997-2014)
Half the time, I expect to go on the green branch. Then, on one sixth of those occasions, I expect to go
1
1
1 1
1
to the second green branch. This can be re-worded as of , which also means : = . And only
6
2
2 6
12
means multiply when the events are independent. (University of Cambridge, 1997-2014)
Now, if asked the question What is the probability of landing a heads OR rolling a 4? Then the
probability will be different. To work out the probability for or calculate all of the probability of the
25
GABRIEL RAYO
outcomes. This can be done through multiplying the outcomes of the first branches, by the outcomes
of the second branches. Here is an example: (University of Cambridge, 1997-2014)
Picture is from: http://nrich.maths.org/7288, Accessed: 26/03/2014, (University of Cambridge, 19972014)

Again using the simplified version of the tree diagram, we can see that the outcomes for the first
branches has been multiplied for each of the second branches. After calculating the probabilities for
each event, add the total probabilities that has either a heads or a 4 in it. So P(H, 4) + P(H, not 4) + P
(T, 4) = P (H or 4). (University of Cambridge, 1997-2014)
1
12
5
12
1
12
7
12
The answer for What is the probability of landing a heads OR rolling a? is:
7
12
Tables (Lattice Diagrams)

Table, such as the lattice diagrams (also known as the probability grid), could be used to calculate the
sample space when determining all possible outcomes for a situation that involves two events. Here
are some example questions that uses lattice diagrams/probability grids: Show the sample space for
rolling a die and tossing a coin. One set of outcomes is written along the top of the grid, and the other
down the side of the grid, in this case all the possible outcomes of rolling a die can either be put on the
top of the grid or down the side the grid. This is the same with the possible outcomes of tossing a coin.
The combined outcomes are then filled in according to the intersecting outcomes. (University of
Australia, N.A.)
Using lattice diagrams, what is the probability of getting a 7 when the two outcomes of two dice are
added when rolled?
First list the sample space of the outcomes:
1
1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6

2 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
3 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
4 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
5 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
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GABRIEL RAYO
6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
The probability of each combination occurring in the sample space could be worked out by using a
frequency table. The frequency is calculated by adding the combinations of the outcomes in each box.
For example, the outcome for two dice is two, and there is only 1 box that could result in that outcome,
thus the frequency of that outcome occurring is only 1.For the example above, a sample of a frequency
table is shown below.
Outcome of Number
two dice
of die
Frequency
(Total/Total
outcomes)
1/36
2/36
3/36
4/36
5/36
6/36
5/36
4/36
10
3/36
11
2/36
12
1/36
Total
22
36/36
of
The answer for the question: what is the probability of getting a 7 when the two outcomes of two dice
are added when rolled? can be worked out by using the frequency table, which is 6/36.
Probability definition: The probability definition is easy to understand once you know the structure of the
formula. There are two types of probabilities. Theoretical probability and Empirical probability.
Theoretical probability is the likeliness of an event to occur bases on all the possible outcomes. To find
the theoretical probability of an event occurring is given by: (New River Community College, N.A.)
(northstarmath, 1995-2005)
() =
()
()
Here is an example of how to calculate the probability of an event using theoretical probability:
What is the probability of rolling a six in a six sided die?
() =
() =
P(E)=
()
()
1 ( )
6 ( )
1
6
There is one possible outcome for rolling a six in a six sided die. Thus the number of favourable events
for rolling a six in a six sided die is one. The total number of outcomes for a six sided die is six. Thus
the total number of outcomes is six. If the question is asking what is the probability of getting a 4 in a
deck of cards?, then the probability will change, as the number of favourable will change, and the total
number of outcomes will change. (Roberts, 1998-2012)
27
GABRIEL RAYO
The empirical probability is the probability of an event that may happen when an experiment is
performed. The empirical probability of an event is an estimate that an event will occur after collecting
data or performing an experiment. The empirical probability of an event is given by: (New River
Community College, N.A.)
() =
Here is an example of an empirical probability: A survey was conducted to determine students favourite
breeds of dogs. Each student only chose one breed.
Example
from:
http://www.regentsprep.org/regents/math/algebra/apr5/theoprop.htm,
Accessed:
27/03/2014
What is the probability that a students favourite dog breed is Lab? There is 35 people who chose the
Lab was their favourite that would make it the number of times the event occurred. The total number of
occurrences (total number of people who chose a favourite dog) is 85, when all of the occurrences are
added together.
If put in the formula it would look like this: () =
Formula
from:
35 (
85 (
http://www.regentsprep.org/regents/math/algebra/apr5/theoprop.htm,
Accessed:
27/03/2014
Calculate and describe the results of two- and three-step chance experiments, both with and
without replacements, assign probabilities to outcomes and determine probabilities of events.
Before calculating probabilities, we first have to figure out what the definitions means. If we dont
understand what two and three step chance experiments are, or what is with and without replacements,
then how are we going to figure out problems containing these. (Tunghai University, N.A.)
Two and Three-step Chance experiments:
Two and three-step chance experiments are also called multistep experiments. Multistep experiments
is when there is more than one step in the experiment. Examples of multi-step experiments are when
flipping two coins, or flipping a coin and rolling a die. Multistep experiments can be shown in a probability
tree (tree diagrams). Here is an example of a multistep experiment would look like when graphed: (Erich
Prisner's Pages, N.A.)
Picture from: http://www.eprisner.de/MAT107/Probability/Multistep.html, Accessed: 29/03/2014
28
GABRIEL RAYO
The example above is what you would call a two-step chance experiment, since there are only two
steps in the experiment. The total number of experimental outcomes in the example shown above is
12. This was done through the counting rule for multiple experiments. The counting rule for multiple
step experiments is: (Tunghai University, N.A.)
If there are k steps in an experiment which there are 1 possible outcomes on the first step, 2 possible
outcomes on the second step and so on, then the total number of experimental outcomes is given by
1 2 . 3 Tunghai Unversity, http://web.thu.edu.tw/wenwei/www/Courses/statistics/ch5.1.pdf,
What the counting rule means is that the number of outcomes in the first step (rolling a dice), times by
the number of outcomes in the second step (flipping a coin). There are six possible outcomes in rolling
a die, and there is two possible outcomes in flipping a coin, thus the total number of outcomes 6*2 =
12. (Tunghai University, N.A.)
With or Without Replacement:
With replacement: When an object is taken, and then replaced. This process does not affect the second
draw, because the bag still has the same number of objects.
For example, there are 4 red, 5 blue, and 9 yellow marbles in a bag. I reach in and take a marble. I
record the color of the marble, and I put the marble back in the bag. I then repeat the experiment a
second time. What is the probability of getting a red for both draws?
1st draw:
4
18
Red marbles
Total number of marbles
2nd draw:
4
18
(The probability didnt change

because on the second draw I put
the marble I took back. This process
keeps the same outcome because
the number of marbles didnt get
reduced.)
Without replacement: When an object is taken out, and the object is not put back in. This process affects
the second draw because there is one less objects.
For example, a bag has 4 red, 5 blue, and 9 yellow marbles. I randomly take a marble from the bag. I
record the color, and dont put the marble back. I randomly take another marble from the bag and record
the color. What is the probability of getting a red for the first draw, and a blue on the second?
1st draw:
4
18
2nd draw:
5
17
Red marbles
Total number of marbles
The denominator changed because I
didnt put the first marble I took back.
This process affected the number of
marbles to choose from, because the
total number of marbles got reduced
by one.
The probabilities of with or without replacements can be shown in multistep experiment diagram (two
and three step experiments). Both of these examples are two step experiments. An example of how a
29
GABRIEL RAYO
multistep
diagram
for
the
probabilities
of
with
replacement.
4
red (18)
4
red (18)
blue(18)
9
yellow(18)
4
red( )
18
Pr (Red and Blue)
5
18
blue( )
5
18
blue( )
9
yellow(18)
4
red(18)
9
18
yellow( )
blue(18)
9
yellow( )
18
Using the Counting Rule for multi-step experiments the total outcomes for the two step experiment is:
3*3 = 9
To find the total probability outcome of picking a red on the first pick, and pick a blue marble on the
second pick when the first marble is placed back, is to multiply the probability of the first outcome and
the second outcome:
4
18
5
18
20
324
As seen on the diagram, the probabilities for the 2nd experiment didnt change from the first experiment,
this is because the marble that was taken out of the first experiment was replaced back into the bag.
This is an independent event because as soon as the marble was placed back into the bag, the 2 nd
experiment didnt affect get affected by the previous event/experiment. This is why the probabilities of
the 2nd experiment didnt differ from the first experiment.
30
GABRIEL RAYO
The probability for the multi-step experiment without replacement would look like this:
3
red (17)
4
red (18)
blue(17)
9
17
yellow( )
3
17
red( )
Pr (Red and Blue
5
18
blue( )
blue(17)
9
yellow(17)
3
red(17)
9
18
yellow( )
blue(17)
9
17
yellow( )
Using the Counting Rule for multi-step experiments the total outcome for the diagram is:
3*3 = 9, notice how the total outcomes for without replacement has the same total outcomes for with
replacement. This is because without replacement and with replacement has the same outcomes. But
the difference between the two is that their probabilities are different.
To find the probability of picking a red marble at the first pick, and the probability of picking a blue marble
at the second pick without replacing the marble back, is to multiply the probability of picking a red and
picking a blue marble:
4
18
5
17
20
306
As for this diagram, the probabilities has changed because on the 2nd experiment. This is because of
the marble that was taken out wasnt replaced back in the bag. As soon as the marble wasnt replaced
back into the bag, the second event/experiment became a dependent event. Thus the reason why the
second experiment has different probabilities from the first experiment.
For three step experiments the same concepts applies from the two-step experiments. The same
example used in the two-step experiment can be expanded to fit the three step experiment. Here is an
example of the three step diagram for with replacement would look like:
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GABRIEL RAYO
red
(
4
)
18
Pr
(Red
and
Blue)
blu
e
5
( )
18
yel
lo
w
9
(18)
red
(
4
)
blu
18
e
5
(yel
)
18
lo
w
9
(red
)
18
(
4
)
blu
18
e
5
(yel)
18
lo
w
9
(red
)
18
(
4
)
blu
18
e
5
(yell
)
18
ow
9
( )
18
As seen on the diagram above, the probabilities does not change, because again the 2 nd experiment
does not get affected by the 1st experiment. This is because the first marble picked was replaced back
into the bag, thus not affecting the 2nd pick. As long as the marble is replaced back into the bag, it
doesnt matter how many experiments you do, the same probabilities will occur, since it becomes an
independent event when the marble is placed back. The difference would be that the total outcomes of
each diagram would be different if the number of experiments is changed. This can be shown through
the Counting Rule:
3*3*3 = 27
The probability of picking a red marble, then a blue marble, and a yellow marble when the marble is
replaced, can be calculated by multiplying all three probabilities:
4 5 9
180
=
18 18 18 5832
The diagram for the three step experiment without replacement will look the same from the diagram for
the three step experiment with replacement. The probabilities of each experiment would be different
from the each other. Here as an example of a three step experiment without replacement would look
like:
32
GABRIEL RAYO
red
(
4
)
18
Pr
(Red
and
Blue)
blu
e
5
( )
18
yel
lo
w
9
(18)
red
(
4
)
blu
18
e
5
(yel
)
18
lo
w
9
(red
)
18
(
4
)
blu
18
e
5
(yel)
18
lo
w
9
(red
)
18
(
4
)
blu
18
e
5
(yell
)
18
ow
9
( )
18
As you can see from the diagram above, the probabilities of the three step experiment without
replacement is different from each experiment. This is because as each experiment is
conducted the marbles that are picked from the previous experiment is not replaced back into
the bag. As the marbles arent replaced back into the back each experiment is then dependent
on the previous experiment, thus affecting the probabilities of each experiment/event. The
total outcomes would still be the same for this diagram:
3*3*3 =27, this is because that each experiment has the same number of outcomes.
The probability can be found by multiplying the probabilities of the specified colour/event for each
experiment. For example, to find the probability of picking a red marble, then a blue marble, and then a
yellow marble without replacing the marble back for each experiment, can be found by multiplying all
three probabilities:
4 5 9
180
=
18 17 16 4896
Use everyday occurrences to illustrate set description and representations of events, and set
operations.
There are many things in our lives today that could be used to show mathematical methods such as set
description, representations of events, and set operations. Firstly what is set description? A set
description (also known as a set definition). As explained in the earlier parts of this CML, Set notation
and language for events, a set is a collection of things such as objects and number called elements.
Each member of the set is unique to each other. An example of a set description is the set of counting
numbers less than 5 {1, 2, 3, 4}. (MathIsFun, 2011)
An example of a set description in our everyday lives is the set of clothes of each person has. Here is
an example of the set of clothes a person would have {blue jeans, black jeans, chequered shirt, plain
white t-shirt, black t-shirt, jacket}.
A set could also be used to represent the things gathered from events that has occurred. An event is
a set of possible outcomes from a particular experiment. Events could either be dependent and
independent events as explained in the earlier parts of this CML, Dependent vs Independent Events. A
brief explanation of what each event means is that dependent events get affected by the outcome of
33
GABRIEL RAYO
the previous/ first event. An independent event is an event that does not get affected by the outcome
of the previous//first events. (MathIsFun, 2011)
Using the set above, what is the probability of picking a pants for your first clothing, and a t-shirt for your
second clothing? There are two possible jeans that could be picked at the first event, and there are 7
clothes in total. Using probability definition: P (jeans) = . This is the probability of the first event
occurring which is picking a pair of jeans. For the second event, the amount of total clothes is reduced
because at the second event, we assume that you have already picked a pair of jeans (either blue or
black) and have worn it. This reduces the amount of clothes by one. The are three possible shirts that
could be picked, and there are 6 clothes in total for the second event. Using probability definition P
(shirt) = . This is what is called a dependent event, since the second outcome was affected by the first
outcome. This can be better represented with a tree diagram:

1
jeans (5)
2
Jeans (6)
shirts (5)
1
jacket(5)
1
jeans ( )
5
Pr (Red and Blue)
shirts (6)
shirts (5)
1
jacket( )
5
jeans (5)
1
jacket( )
6
shirts (5)
1
jacket(5)
2
As you can see from the tree diagram, the probability of jeans is ( ), and for the second pick, the
6
probability of picking a shirt is ( ). As explained before this is a dependent event, since the second
5
outcome was affected by the first outcome. We can simplify the two probabilities of the first and second
pick. This is done by multiplying the two probabilities. When we multiply two probabilities we say P = (A
2
3
and B) = P (A) * P (B). Using the example: P (jeans and shirts) = P ( ) * P ( )
6
30
P (jeans and shirts) = P( ) = ( )

Set operations deals with discrete mathematics. Discrete math is the study of the discrete structure
used to represent discrete objects. These discrete structures are built by using sets. As explained in
the earlier parts of this CML, a set is a collection of things called elements. Here are the important sets
in discrete math. (Haushkrecht, N.A.)
Natural numbers N = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4.}
Integers: Z = {.., -2, -1, 0, 1, 2 }
Positive integers Z+ = {1, 2, 3 .}
Rational numbers Q = {/| , , 0}
Real numbers R
34
GABRIEL RAYO
Formulas
from:http://people.cs.pitt.edu/~milos/courses/cs441/lectures/Class7.pdf,
Accessed:
12/04/2014
As explained in the earlier parts of this CML, Set notation and language for events, if a set has too many
elements, they can be represented as a notation using the symbols above. Say for example x is a
natural number and x is greater than 10 (x < 10). There are a lot of numbers for that set. A notation that
could simplify the set is . To say that x is a natural number and is less than 10 we do: (Stapel, 20052012)
{| , < 10}
This is the same with the other symbols.
Sets can also be related to each other. If a set is inside another set it is called a subset. This means
that everything in set A is also in set B. This is written as: (Stapel, 2005-2012)
For example, your friend has a set of shoes {Nike, adidas, Jordan}. This set is named A. You have a
set of shoes {Reebok, Nike, Adidas, Jordan, Converse}. This set is named B. Since everything in set A
is in set B, therefore . Meaning set A is a subset of set B. (Stapel, 2005-2012)
If a set is not a subset, a slash is drawn on the symbol for a subset: B A, meaning B is not a subset
of A. (Stapel, 2005-2012)
If two sets are combined, they are called a union of sets. A union is indicated by a large U symbol. This
is written as: A U B. A union is an element belonging to at least one of the sets. This could be written
as: A U B = {| }. (University of Hawaii, 2006)
If two sets are only taking what is common to the two sets, they are called an intersection of sets. An
intersection is indicated by a large upside down symbol. An intersect is written as: . An
intersection is an element belonging to both of the two or more sets. This could be written as =
{| } (University of Hawaii, 2006)
The union and the intersection of two sets could be visualized using a Venn Diagram. Venn Diagram is
a way of presenting relationships between groups of things, also known as sets. Venn Diagrams can
be used to illustrate both set relationships and logical relationships. Here is a representation of Venn
Diagrams for union and intersection: (Stapel, 2003-2012)
Picture
from:
http://www.math.hawaii.edu/~williamdemeo/Math371Summer2011/SetOperationsAndVenDiagrams.pdf, Accessed: 12/04/2014
Another aspect of Venn Diagrams are the universal sets. Universal sets contains everything that is
relevant to the problem you have. For example, if we the topic was about shoes, all of the shoe brands
would be included in the universal set. Say for example (using the set above), your friend had the same
shoes as you. That could be represented as the intersection of the set of shoes you and your friend
has. Here is the Venn Diagram for the intersection: (MathIsFun, 2011)
35
GABRIEL RAYO
Venn Diagram 1
As you can see from Venn Diagram 1, the shoes that you and your friend has is put where the two
circles meet. This is the coloured section in the Venn Diagram. The coloured section represents the
intersection between the two sets.
When talking about union of the two sets, we are talking about whether you or your friend has the
elements in the set that is specified. In this case, the specified element is Nike. Here is the Venn
Diagram for the union of the two sets:
Venn Diagram 2
As you can see from Venn Diagram 2, the sets that either you or your friend has is coloured. The whole
circle is coloured because it represents the whole set that has the shoe. The coloured circles represents
the union between the two sets.
There are other forms of intersection and union of sets that could be represented by Venn Diagrams.
Here are some examples:
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GABRIEL RAYO
Pictures
are
from:http://www.mathsrevision.net/alevel/pages.php?page=34
,
and
http://www.math.cmu.edu/~bkell/21110-2010s/sets.html , Accessed: 12/04/2014 (Carniege Mellon
University, 2010)
Understand and use combination notation & formula () =
!
!()!
A combination in probability is when the order of the items in the set does not matter. For example, if
you have a fruit salad containing the fruits apple, banana, and orange. A fruit salad with banana, apple,
and orange is considered the same combination, meaning the same fruit salad. Notice how the order
of the set changed. This is because, as explained before, the set is considered as a combination. The
!
combination of a set can be calculated by using the following formula: () =
. (Unknown, N.A.)
!()!
(Free Math help, 2013)

What the equation above means is that the amount of combinations of a set n objects taken r at a time.
Where n is all the possible outcomes, and r is the amount of combinations of the size from a set of size
!
n. This is denoted by (). The equation
is gathered from permutations. A permutation is an
!()!
arrangement of the objects in a certain order from the set. Using the example above, where the fruit
salad contains the fruits apple, banana, and orange. A fruit salad with banana, apple, and orange is
different from apple, banana, and orange. This is what permutation means. (University of Conneticut,
N.A.)
Permutation comes in two forms: Permutation without replacement, and permutation with replacement.
In other words permutation with repetition, and permutation without repetition. Permutation with
replacement is the easiest permutation to calculate. The theorem of permutation with replacement is
The number of arrangements of n objects taken r at a time, with repetition, is given by n raised to the
37
GABRIEL RAYO
power of r = nr. An example of a permutation is a lock. There has to be a specific combination of
numbers. The amount of numbers to choose from in a lock is 10 (0, 1, 2, 3, 4.9). This can be
considered as the set. The set is used 3 times to unlock the lock. Thus the amount of permutations is:
103 = 10*10*10 =1,000 permutations (University of Sydney, N.A.), (MathIsFun, 2011)
Permutation without replacement is much harder to calculate. This is where combination is based on.
The theorem of permutation without replacement is The number of permutations of a set of n objects
!
taken r at a time is given by the following formula nPr = ()!. The University of Sydney,
http://www.maths.usyd.edu.au/u/gartht/Wshops/BasicProb.pdf, Accessed: 5/04/2014
Here is an example of when permutation without replacement is used to find the amount of permutations
in a set.
How many different permutations are there of a pizza with pepperoni, onions, and mushrooms. To
find the number of different arrangements, first select a first choice from the 3 possible choices
(pepperoni, onions, and mushrooms). Take a second choice, from the remaining 2 choices. Finally
choose the last choice. Thus, there are 6 (3*2*1) possible different ordered arrangements for the
toppings. To find the number of different arrangements for other examples of permutation without
replacement select a choice from the amount of possible choices until there are no more choices. Then
multiply them. This is what is done with the example above. This is what is called a factorial. (University
of Sydney, N.A.)
To fully understand how permutation works, is to understand what factorial means. A factorial is a
product indicated by an exclamation mark. The factorial function means to multiply a series of
descending natural numbers. An example of a factorial is 4!, which reads four factorial. (Stapel, 20052012)
4! = 4*3*2*1 = 24
Using the example How many ways to arrange different 3 toppings on a pizza if there are 6 available?
There are 6 (n) possible choices that could be chosen, to find the permutations of without replacement
we do the factorial of the possible choices n, which in our case is 6. But we only want to use 3 of the
possible choices, we take of 3 from the possible choices n (6), and do a factorial of the result. So for
our example we would subtract 3 from 6 (6-3), and then do the factorial of 3, since 6-3 =3. When put in
the equation, it would look like this: (University of Sydney, N.A.)
6!
(63)!
654321
321
= 6 5 4 = 120 . The 3*2*1 cancels each other out, just like how unknown
variables (x,y) cancels each other out when dividing. As they cancel out 6*5*4 has can just be multiplied
be each other, since there is no division to be done. There is 120 permutations when 3 toppings are
used in a pizza if there are 6 available toppings. (University of Sydney, N.A.)
When finding the combination there is an extra step. With combination we use the permutation and
divide that number by the number of ways arranging the selections. Using the example above there are
1
!
1
r! = 3*2*1 = 6 possible ways of arranging the 3 ingredients. Thus: (!) = 120 = 20. There are
!
20 possible combinations of pizzas if each pizza has 3 toppings when there are 6 possible toppings.
(University of Sydney, N.A.)
:
1
!
!
(!)
Can also be written as
!
!()!
. This is why combinations is gathered from permutations. Here
is an example of using the full combination formula and notation: (University of Sydney, N.A.)
!
( )=
! ( )!
How many ways can you choose 4 people at random from a group of 10 people? Since there will be
the same group of 4 people no matter what the order the people are chosen in. The question is set out
as a combination: (University of Sydney, N.A.)
!
( )=
! ( )!
38
GABRIEL RAYO
Where 4 is the amount of choices (r), and 10 is the size of the set (n).
(

)=
( )

( )=

)=
=
( ) =
Meaning there are 210 possible combinations when you choose 4 people at random from a group of 10
people. (University of Sydney, N.A.)
Calculate and use relative frequencies from data as point estimates of probabilities
Some probabilities cannot be calculated by just looking at the situation. This is where relative frequency.
Relative frequency is how often something happens, divided by all the outcomes. For example, the
probability cannot be worked out for the amount of wins for a basketball team by assuming that wins,
losses, and draws are equally likely. The previous results from previous matches played by a specific
team could be used to estimate the probability of winning. (MathIsFun, 2011)
Here is an example: Say that your basketball team is going to play their last game for the season. Your
team has won 9 games out of 12 games. What is the probability of your team winning the next game?
MathIsFun,http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/relative-frequency.html, Accessed: 13/04/2014
The probability of your team winning your next game could be worked out by looking at previous results
9
3
from past games. Your team has won 9 games out of 12. We can write this as the fraction
= .
12
4
Meaning that your team has a 75% chance of winning the next game. This fraction/percentage isnt the
probability of your team winning. This is an estimate of that probability. We then say that the relative
7
frequency of your team winning is .
10
The relative frequency of an outcome can be calculated by using the formula:

=
From,
http://www.cimt.plymouth.ac.uk/projects/mepres/book7/bk7i21/bk7_21i3.htm,
13/04/2014
Accessed:
The formulae for relative frequency resembles the probability definition for empirical probability. The
amount of trials gathered over the total number of trials. The estimate of the probability of a particular
outcome can be calculated by the relative frequency. As the number of trails increase the estimate
probability becomes closer to the absolute frequency. (Centre for Innovation in Mathematics Teaching,
2001)
Absolute frequency is the description of the number of times a particular value for a variable (data item)
has been observed. This can help quantify and explore data to make it less confusing to people.
Researchers exploring implications of data need information on the absolute frequency of their data.
This is to demonstrate or disprove their theories. They may also perform a number of mathematical
calculations to discuss issues relating to significance and probability. (McMahon, 2014) (Australian
Bureau of Statistics, 2013)
In probability calculations, we can determine the likelihood of repeating an absolute frequency and
overall frequency distributions. Researchers can also look for signs of issues in the distribution such as
a spike in a distribution or a distribution that is too random to occur. (McMahon, 2014)
As explained before, the relative frequency formula looks similar to the empirical probability definition,
because both definitions of probability can be used to calculate precision in an experiment. Here is an
example of the use of relative frequency in an experiment: (McMahon, 2014)
39
GABRIEL RAYO
There are two dice. They are rolled. What is the probability of the sum of the two dice that equals to
six?
The dice experiment was conducted 50 times. Each time, the sum of the two dices were recorded and
got the following outcomes. (Bowling Green State University, 1996)
Picture from, http://www-math.bgsu.edu/~albert/m115/probability/relfreq.html, Accessed: 13/04/2014

Using the relative frequency formula, the relative frequency of acquiring a sum of two dice when rolled
is:
Probability (Sum is 6) is approximately =
=
# 6
#
5
50
= 0.1
Picture from, http://www-math.bgsu.edu/~albert/m115/probability/relfreq.html, Accessed: 13/04/2014

As explained before the relative frequency is an estimation of the probability of acquiring a six when
two dice are rolled. The relative frequency can be used to predict the chances of acquiring a six when
two dice are rolled. In this case, there is a 10% chance that the next outcome of two dice when they are
rolled is going to be a six. (Bowling Green State University, 1996)
http://www-math.bgsu.edu/~albert/m115/probability/relfreq.html, Accessed: 13/04/2014
Calculate compound probabilities using: P (A and B) = P (A) x P (B), P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) P
(AB)
A compound event is an event that consists of two or more events. Compound probabilities are the
likelihood of compound events occurring. Compound events are split into two categories, mutually
exclusive, and mutually inclusive. The probability of each category is calculated differently from each
other. (Investopedia, 2014)
Firstly, what are mutually exclusive events? A mutually exclusive event is when two events cannot or
doesnt occur at the same time. When two events are mutually exclusive it is impossible for them to
happen together. To calculate the probability of two mutually events, there is a specific addition rule
used to calculate the probability: (Richland Community College, N.A.)
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)
Here is an example of two mutually exclusive events:
You have a 10 sided die, and the die is rolled. Find the probability of rolling a 4 or 8. As the two
events cannot happen at the same time, the events are mutually exclusive.
The first step in calculating the probability is to find the probability of each event independently, meaning
find the probability of getting a 4 and getting an 8 separately: (Algebra-Class, 2009-2013)
1
P(4) = There is 1 possible chance of getting a four on the die. There are ten possible outcomes on
10
the die. As the probability definition states, the number of ways it can happen over the total number of
outcomes. (Algebra-Class, 2009-2013)
1
P(8) = There is 1 possible chance of getting an eight on the die. There are ten possible outcomes
10
on the die. As the probability definition states, the number of ways it can happen over the total number
of outcomes. (Algebra-Class, 2009-2013)
Therefore, the probability rolling a four or eight is:
40
1
5
GABRIEL RAYO
P (4 or 8) =
1
10
1
10
2
10
1
5
When two events arent mutually exclusive there is some overlap. These non-mutually exclusive events
are called mutually exclusive events. Mutually inclusive events are when two events can happen at the
same time. To calculate the probability of two mutually inclusive events, a general addition rule is used
to calculate the probability: (Cero, 2014)
P(A or B) = P(A)+ P(B) P(AB)
If two events are inclusive the data can occur in both event A and event B. Thus, when adding A and B
the intersection is added twice. This doubles the counting data. To compensate for the double addition,
the intersection [P(AB)] must be subtracted. (Richland Community College, N.A.)
Note: a probability cannot be greater than 1. There cant be a probability greater than 1 because there
cant be a chance happening greater than 100%. When an inclusive event, the probability will be greater
than 100%. This is why the intersection must be subtracted. (Mathplanet, N.A.) (Cero, 2014)
Here is an example of a mutually inclusive event:
What is the probability of a person that plays sports or a female out of 150 people? Use the table
below to answer the question
Male
Female
Total
From,
Plays sport
Doesnt play sports
Totals
60
10
70
30
50
80
90
60
150
http://www.sophia.org/tutorials/calculating-probability-of-a-compound-event,
Accessed:
8/04/2014
Let A be male & plays sport
Let B be people who plays sports
Let C be females
From,
http://www.sophia.org/tutorials/calculating-probability-of-a-compound-event,
Accessed:
8/04/2014
P (B or C) = P(people who plays sports) + P(females) P (people who plays sports and are female)
90
80
=P
+
There are 90 people in total who plays sports out of the 150 people, and there
150
150
are 80 females out of the 150 people. Using the probability definition: number of favourable outcomes
(90 & 80), over total number of outcomes (150 people). But 90+80 = 170. This number is greater than
150, which would make the probability greater than 100%. Thus the intersection must be subtracted
which is people who are female and play sports (30). (Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies, 1998-2014)
=P
90
150
80
150
Therefore, P(B or C) =
30
140
150 150
140
150
When using the multiplication rule P (A and B) = P (A) x P (B), this is talking about compound
independent events. As explained before compound events is the likelihood of two or more events
happening. An independent event is when event A does not get affected by event B. Just by looking at
this definition, an independent event has two events. This makes independent a form of compound
events. To find the probability of two independents that occur in sequence, find the probability of both
events and multiply them. Multiplication rule for two independent events: (Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies,
1998-2014)
When two events, A and B, are independent, the probability of both occurring is Mrs Glossers Math
( ) = () ()
41
GABRIEL RAYO
Here is an example of independent events:
A coin is tossed and a single 6-sided die is rolled. Find the probability of landing on the head side of
the coin and rolling a 3 on the die. Mrs Glossers Math Goodies, paragraph 11,
http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/independent_events.html, Accessed: 15/03/2014
P(head) =
P (3) = 1/6
P(head and 3) = P(A) * P(B)
= P(head) * P(3)
= P (1/2) * P(1/6)
= P (1/12)
Year 12
Solve problems involving permutations and restrictions with or without repeated objects
As explained in the earlier parts of this CML, Understand and use notation combination & formula() =
!
!()!
, a permutation is a set of elements or arrangement of elements chosen from some set. Unlike
with combinations where the order of the set does not matter. The order of the set for a permutation
does matter. For example, a pizza that has the toppings, pepperoni, onion, and mushroom is not the
same as a pizza with the toppings mushroom, pepperoni, onion. Permutations may either be with
replacement or without replacement. In a permutation with replacement there may be repetitions of
elements within an arrangement. An example of a permutation with replacement/repetition is if we
shuffle a deck of cards, and choose five cards out of a deck of cards. But each time we choose a card
we put it back into the deck, so that it can be chosen again. As a result of this we get a permutation with
replacement of length five chosen from a set of size 52. The permutation with replacement is the easiest
one to calculate out of the two types of permutations. (MathIsFun, 2011)
The permutations of a set with replacement could be calculated by using the Fundamental Principle of
Counting. The Fundamental Principle of Counting suggests that if we choose k elements from a set
size of n, with replacement. Then each element can be chosen in n ways. Therefore the sequence of
elements can be chosen in n*n*n.n = nr. In other words, the number of arrangements of n objects
taken r at a time, with replacement is given by n raised to the power of r: nr. University of Sydney,
http://www.maths.usyd.edu.au/u/gartht/Wshops/BasicProb.pdf, Accessed: 28/04/2014
Here is an example of calculating the amount permutations with replacement:
How many license plates can you make with only 4 letters on them, given that you can repeat the
letters? - University of Sydney, http://www.maths.usyd.edu.au/u/gartht/Wshops/BasicProb.pdf,
Accessed: 28/04/2014
The first letter can be picked from 26 options. The second letter can also be picked from 26 options
since, the same letters can be repeated. Thus, the fourth and third letters can also be picked from 26
options. Therefore: 26*26*26*26 = 264 = 456, 976 possible license plates that are available if 4 letters
can be repeated. (University of Sydney, N.A.)
There is a general rule for permutations with repetition. The number of arrangements of n objects,
where a are of one kind, b are of a second kind, c are of a third kind, etc. is:
!
! ! !
-
School Work Out, permutation under conditions, paragraph 11, Accessed: 29/04/2014
This means that if a certain element in the set in a permutation we must use this formula. What this
formula means is, the sample size n factorial, over the first element that has the same elements factorial
(denoted as a!), times the second element that has the same elements factorial (denoted as b!). The
amount of categories of elements in a set may be more than two, thus the dots indicating that the
42
GABRIEL RAYO
categories can be more than two or three. Here is an example of when this formula for permutations
with repetition is used in.
How many different arrangements are possible of the letters in the word SCHOOL?
Solution: There are 6 letters in the word, but they are not all different. There are 2 Os in the word,
therefore it is considered as an element of one kind. Thus the number of possible arrangement is
given by using the general rule of permutations with repetitions:
6!
654321
=
2!
21
The common factors of 2! And 6! Can be cancelled out, which is 2*1. Therefore:
654321
= 6 5 4 3 = 360
21
The answer for the question How many different arrangements are possible of the letters in the word
SCHOOL, is that there are 360 possible arrangements of the letters in the word school.
In a permutation without replacement there will be no repetitions that occurs. An example of a

permutation without replacement, is if we shuffle a deck of cards, and we picked five cards without
replacing them. The order of the cards that were picked from the first to last pick was noted down.
Therefore we have a permutation without replacement. The permutation without replacement has a
much complex method than the permutation with replacement. (University of Conneticut, N.A.)
The permutation of set without replacement can be calculated by using the theorem The number of
!
permutations of a set n objects taken at r at a time is given by the formula: nPr = ()! University of
Sydney, www.maths.usyd.edu.au/u/gartht/Wshops/BasicProb.pdf, Accessed: 28/04/2014. What the
equation means is that if we choose r elements from a set of size n, without replacement, the first of the
elements can be chosen in n ways. In the second element, it can be chosen in (n 1) ways. This is
because there is one less item to choose from. Because of without replacement the elements that can
be chosen will always be one less from the amount of elements that can be chosen for the previous
element. Meaning, that if the second element was 2, the third element was 1. Therefore, the third
element can be chosen in (n 2), fourth (n 3), and so forth until we get to the last element, which can
be chosen [n (r 1)]. This is known as the factorial of a positive integer, which is denoted by the ! in
the equation. (University of Conneticut, N.A.)
The factorial of a positive integer n, we define as n!. = n(n 1) (n 2). [n (k 1)]. Say for example
n = 5, then the factorial of 5 is: 5*4*3*2*1. This is because: 5! (read as five factorial) = 5*(5 -1)*(5 2)*
(5 3)* (5 4), which equals 5*4*3*2*1. The factorial always ends when it reaches 1. There is an
exception when saying 0! (read as zero factorial). 0! Is defined to be equal to 1 not 0. A fraction could
4!
be denoted as a factorial. For example, simplify the following: (Stapel, 2005-2012)
3!
10! 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
=
3!
321
Right away, I can cancel off the factors that will be common to both 3! And 10! Which is 3*2*1. This is
because of how factorials are defined, and can simplify the work by a lot (Stapel, 2005-2012)
10!
3!
10987654321
321
10987654321
321
= 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 = 604, 800
From, http://www.purplemath.com/modules/factorial.htm, Accessed: 28/04/2014
43
GABRIEL RAYO
When able to simplify, simplify it to make the problem easier to solve, for example: (Stapel, 2005-2012)
Picture is from, http://www.purplemath.com/modules/factorial.htm, Accessed: 28/04/2014

Here is an example of calculating the amount of permutations without replacements:
How many ways are there to arrange different 3 toppings on a pizza if there are 6 available?
University of Sydney, www.maths.usyd.edu.au/u/gartht/Wshops/BasicProb.pdf, Accessed: 28/04/2014
Using the formula for permutations without replacements:
6P
3
6!
= (63)! =
654321
321
Cancel out the factors that are both common in 6! And 3! Which is 3*2*1.
6P
3
6!
= (63)! =
654321
321
= 6*5*4 = 120
There are 120 possible different arrangements for 3 different toppings on a pizza if there are 6 available.
(University of Sydney, N.A.)
There is a notation used for determining that a certain value is a permutation. This notation consists of
r (amount of objects taken in n sample), n (sample size), and P (permutation). As you may have seen
in previous equation of permutations done in this CML, I used the notation nPr to show that the particular
equation is a permutation. This notation is used to show the variables needed to calculate the
permutation. The notation of a permutation could also be in the form of nPr, or P (n, r). The type of
permutation does not really matter.
Sometimes permutations need to meet certain conditions. These conditions are called restrictions. In
our everyday language restrictions means is a limiting condition or measure to a certain thing.
Restriction has the same meaning in mathematics, where a condition is placed on the order of which
objects are arranged in. Permutations that has restrictions is called as permutation under conditions.
With any permutation there are permutations with restrictions, and there are also permutation without
conditions
Permutations under conditions are basically permutations that are in a certain condition. For example,
the amount of even numbers greater than 4000 that can be made from the digits 2, 3, 6, 8. Since, the
number has to be greater than 4000, the first numbers cannot be 2 or 3 because that would mean that
the number is less than 4 thousand. The only possible numbers that could be used for the first numbers
is 6 and 8, since it would be greater than 4000, corresponding to what they asked for. Thus makes the
amount of even numbers greater than 4000 becomes a restriction.
Dealing with permutations under conditions does not have a complex procedure. Calculating the
amount of possible arrangements under conditions has several steps to it. Firstly, try to figure out what
the restrictions the questions has given you. In the example above, the restrictions there is that the first
digits can only be 6 or 8 as explained. Another restriction there is that the last digit must be 2, or
whichever of the 6 or 8 that hasnt been used for the first digit. This is because the number has to be
44
GABRIEL RAYO
comprised of 2, 3, 6, 8 and 3 is not an even number therefore 2, 6, and 8 is the only numbers that can
be on the last digit of the number.
The next step is to apply the general rule of permutations to find the total number of arrangements. In
the example used, there are first digit can be chosen in 2 ways (6 or 8), the fourth digit can be chosen
in 3 ways (assuming that there is repetition in the permutation 2 or 6 or 8), the second digit can be
chosen in 2 ways (2 or 3), and the third digit can be chosen in 2 ways (3 or 2). Therefore the total
amount of arrangements is given by multiply the number of ways that each digit can be chosen:
2 * 3 * 2 *2 = 24
The answer to the question what is the amount of even numbers greater than 4000 that can be made
from the digits 2, 3, 6, 8? is 24.
Here is are some examples of how to calculate permutations with restrictions:
The letters in the word YESTERDAY are to be rearranged into a line. In how many of the arrangements
are all the vowels together and all the constants together?
The restrictions here is the splitting of the vowels and consonants. The vowels will have its separate
arrangements from the consonants, and the consonants will have its separate arrangement from the
vowels. To calculate the amount of arrangements first calculate the arrangements of the consonants
and vowels separately.
The consonants in the word are YSTRDY. There are two Ys which would mean that it would be a
category of the letters in the consonants or the Y is repeated in the consonants for the word. Therefore,
the general rule for permutations with repetition must be used to calculate the total different
arrangements for the consonants.
6!
654321
=
2!
21
The common factors of 6! And 2! Can be cancelled out, therefore:
654321
= 6 5 4 3 = 360
21
The consonants can be arranged in 360 different ways.
The vowels in the word are EEA. As seen from the consonants, there is a repeated letter, for vowels
there are also a letter that is repeated (E) therefore the general rule for permutations with repetition
must be used to calculate the total different arrangements for the consonants.
3!
321
=
2!
21
The common factors of 3! And 2! Can be cancelled out, therefore:
3!
321
=
=3
2!
21
The vowels can be arranged in 3 different ways.
45
GABRIEL RAYO
As there are two orders of which the consonants and vowels arranged, meaning there are two ways
that consonants are together with the vowels together. (consonants first and then vowels, and vice
versa). Therefore, the total number of arrangements with vowels and consonants together is by
multiplying the total arrangements of consonants, the vowels, and the amount of ways the consonants
and vowels are put together.
360 * 3 * 2 = 2160.
Permutations without restrictions is basically permutations without restrictions or conditions. For
example, the amount of ways books are arranged in a shelf when a teacher has 10 text books in their
shelf? Since there are no restrictions, we can assume that this question is asking for permutations
without repetition. This is because permutations that does not indicate that it is being repeated or with
conditions is usually permutations without repetition. For example, the example above where the
restriction was with the consonants and vowels, showed that there are repetitions of the letters in the
word. Therefore, the general rule for permutations with repetition was used for the question.
In dealing with permutations without restrictions, the factorial of the sample size gives you the amount
of permutations without restrictions. Using the example with the book shelf, assuming that there is no
repetition and no restrictions the amount of different arrangements is given by 10 factorial, since there
are 10 text books in the shelf. This is because the first book can be chosen in 10 ways, the second book
can be chosen in 9 ways (due to the first book taking the first slot), the third book can be chosen in eight
ways, until the 10th book can be chosen in only one way.
Therefore, the total number of arrangements is 10! = 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 *5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 3628800
The total number of ways that the shelf can be arranged when there are 10 books in the shelf is
3628800.
Here is an example of a problem solved using permutations without restrictions:
In how many ways can all of the letters of the word ORANGADAIR be arranged if there are no
restrictions? - http://www.lss.sd74.bc.ca/math12/6-3x.pdf, Accessed: 29/04/2014
Assuming that there are no repetitions, the total number of ways the word can be arranged is the
factorial of the sample size. In this case the sample size is, 10, therefore the total amount of ways the
word can be re-arranged is: (Lillooet Server, N.A.)
10! = 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 *5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 3628800
Solve problems and prove results using the pigeon-hole principle
The pigeon-hole principle is a fundamental and powerful tool in combinatorics (combinations and
permutations). The pigeon hole principle, unlike many other strong mathematical theorems, is fairly
simple and easy to learn. When the principle is thoroughly studied, it is hard to have a glimpse of its
elegance and useful applications in mathematics. The pigeonhole principle has its simple form and its
generalized form. (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, N.A.)
The pigeon hole in the simple form If n + 1 objects are put into n boxes, then at least one box contains
two or more objects The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,
http://www.math.ust.hk/~mabfchen/Math391I/Pigeonhole.pdf, Accessed: 2/05/2014
Here are some examples: Among 13 people there are two who have their birthdays in the same month,
or there are n married couples. How many of the 2n people must be selected in order to guarantee that
one has selected a married couple? (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, N.A.)
Other principles that are related to the pigeonhole principle:
46
If n objects are put into n boxes and no box is empty, then each box contains exactly one
objects
GABRIEL RAYO
If n objects are put into n boxes and no box gets more than one object, then each box has an
object
Here is an example of applying the pigeon hole principle to solve a problem:

In the movie Cheaper by the Dozen, there are 12 children. Prove that at least two of the children were
born on the same day of the week. UCLA Department of Mathematics,
http://www.math.ucla.edu/~radko/circles/lib/data/Handout-123-153.pdf, Accessed: 4/05/2014
Proof: There are 12 children (pigeons) which we are placing in 7 days of the week (pigeonholes). Using
the PhP (Pigeon hole principle), there must be at least two children born on the same day of the week.
This is because, there are only 7 days in a week, and there are 7 children. The first 7 kids that were
born would fit in one kid born per day. This leaves us with 5 children left. The pigeon hole principle tells
us that if there are more objects (children) for the pigeon holes (days of the week), there must be some
pigeon holes that have more than one pigeon. Therefore, two or more of the kids are born on the same
day of the week. (University of California Los Angeles, N.A.)
The generalized form of the Pigeon Hole Principle states that If n pigeons are sitting in k pigeonholes,
where n > k, then there is at least one pigeon hole with at least n/k pigeons. UCLA Department of
Mathematics,
http://www.math.ucla.edu/~radko/circles/lib/data/Handout-123-153.pdf,
Accessed:
4/05/2014
Here is are some examples for this form of the Pigeon Hole Principle: If you have 5 pigeons sitting in 2
pigeon holes, then one of the pigeon holes have at least 5/2 = 2.5 pigeons. Unfortunately, the boxes
cannot have half-pigeons, therefore at least in one of the pigeon holes there are 3 pigeons. (University
of California Los Angeles, N.A.)
Here is the proof that the generalized Pigeon-Hole principle is true. Assuming that there were not any
pigeon-hole with at least n/k pigeons. Therefore, every hole has <n/k pigeons, so the total number of
pigeons is < (n/k) * (# holes) = (n/k) * k = n. This statement says that the number of pigeons is strictly
less than n, in fact there are exactly n pigeons. Therefore the assumption that there isnt any pigeons
with at least n/k is false, and therefore the generalised pigeon-hole principle is true. (University of
California Los Angeles, N.A.)
Here is an example of using the generalised pigeon-hole principle to prove a certain problem
There are 50 baskets of apples. Each basket contains no more than 24 apples. Show that at least
there are at least 3 baskets containing the same number of apples. UCLA Department of
Mathematics,
http://www.math.ucla.edu/~radko/circles/lib/data/Handout-123-153.pdf,
Accessed:
4/05/2014
In this problem, the baskets are the pigeons, and the apples are the pigeon-holes. The amount of
baskets are 50 and we place each of the baskets in one of the 24 pigeon holes according to the amount
of apples in it. Using the generalised pigeon-hole principle formula n/k the ratio of pigeon to pigeonholes
1
is 50/24 = 2 . By General PHP (Pigeon Hole Principle) there are at least this many baskets that have
12
the same number of apples, so there must be at least 3 baskets containing the same number of apples.
(University of California Los Angeles, N.A.)
Conceptual Knowledge:
Representation of information (data)
Representation of data is how the data is presented. This could be graphs, such as, histograms, bar
graphs, line graphs, etc. Statistics and probability is very different from each other, but these two
mathematical concepts help each other so that researchers can make logical conclusions about an
event or experiment. Probability lets us to find the consequences of a given ideal world, and statistics
gives us the measurement of how extent our world is ideal. We can see that without statistics, probability
would not be possible. (State University of New York at Stony Brook, 2001)
https://www.cs.sunysb.edu/~skiena/jaialai/excerpts/node12.html, Accessed: 14/04/2014
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GABRIEL RAYO
These graphs are very useful for presenting information to the public, as they can easily find a trend on
a graph. They can then make conclusions about the connection between two variables using the trend
line. Representation of data could also be used in journalism and media, as they can show the public
graphs of things that could be useful in the everyday lives of people. Representation of information
links the key topics in probability to the key topics in statistics, as probability could be used in statistics.
This is seen in relative frequencies in the probability section of this CML. Previous occurrences could
be used to work out the probability of one element to occur. As explained before the likelihood of one
event occurring in an experiment using relative frequency. Probability cannot be considered as
statistics, only after statistics is used to work out the probability of an event occurring again.
Statistics and probability are also linked together because they both use sets. The sets in statistics and
probability are very similar. How the sets are dealt with in each concept is different. For example,
statistics may use the sets to draw a box plot to compare the spread of data, and probability may use
the sets to show the intersection. But nonetheless, statistics and probability are linked together by sets.
The sets in both concepts can also represent everyday life examples.
But how does this relate key topics in statistics and probability together? The sets gathered from
statistical experiment can be used for both probability and statistics. Statistics can use the sets for
calculating five number summaries and drawing box plots to compare the spread of the data, or to make
conclusions about the sets. Statistics can also use histograms and dot plots to make conclusions. After
conclusions about the sets, probability can be used to work out the likelihood of events occurring from
the conclusions made. For example, there are 10 snakes in a zoo, 5 of them are red snakes. The
probability of someone finding a red snake is 5/10 or 50%. This shows that probability can be used to
make further conclusions about the statistics gathered.
Centrality and Dispersion
Centrality and Dispersion links probability and statistics together by using sets to draw conclusions and
assumptions. For example, probability uses sets to illustrate set descriptions and representations of
events, and set operations. Statistics uses sets to compare the spread of data. This could be done with
standard deviation, calculating the mean, or maybe calculating a five number summary and drawing a
box plot. Probability can also calculate how dispersed the set is or if the set is centre to something. This
could be worked out by using Probability Distributions, where the mean, variance, and the standard
deviation of a set is worked out by using probability. Probability Distributions will be elaborated more on
the Probability Distributions section of this CML.
Although centrality and dispersion might not relate to probability, the key topics in centrality and
dispersion (mean, standard deviation, and five number summaries) can be related to probability as
explained in the paragraph above. There are other links that could be made between statistics and
probability that relates to centrality and dispersion. Here are some examples the set operations looks
at where the set is intersecting. This could mean that the two data sets may be centred on these values.
Probability Distributions
A probability distribution is a table or an equation that links an outcome of a statistical experiment with
the probability of it occurring. When the value of a variable is the outcome of a statistical experiment
then it is called a random variable. The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X is a
function that gives p (xi) that the random variable equals to xi for each value of xi. (McColl, N.A.)
Here is an example of a probability distribution:
Say you flip a coin twice. This statistical experiment can have four possible outcomes: HH, HT, TH, and
TT. Let X be the variable that represents the amount of heads in the experiment. X can have the values
of 0, 1 or 2. The numbers means the amount of heads possible in the experiment. There is a possibility
of no heads coming up when a coin is flipped twice, thus the number zero. There is a possibility that
there will be at least 1 heads that comes up when a coin is flipped twice. There is a possibility that there
will be 2 heads that comes up when a con is flipped twice. Therefore, X is a random variable because
its value is determined by the statistical experiment (flipping the coin up twice). The probability of heads
occurring can be shown in a table: (StatTrek.com, 2014)
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GABRIEL RAYO
Number of Heads
Probability
0
0.25
1
0.5
2
0.25
From,
http://stattrek.com/statistics/dictionary.aspx?definition=probability_distribution,
13/04/2014
Accessed:
A mean, variance and a standard distribution can be worked out from probability distributions. The mean
of is the expected value for X, which is the random variable in a probability distribution. The mean is
shown as the symbol of . The mean of the probability is calculated by using the formula: (MathIsFun,
2013)
=
To find the Expected Value multiply each value by its probability and then sum them up. This is what
the sigma sign means Multiply all of the probabilities by their values (X) and then sum them up. Using
the example above, the Expected Value for it is 1. Values with higher probability will have a higher
contribution to the mean. (MathIsFun, 2013)
To calculate the variance of a probability distribution is given by squaring each and multiply it by its
probability. Then sum them up, and we get 2 . Then subtract the square of the Expected Value.
When put in formula form. It would look like this: (MathIsFun, 2013)
() = 2 2
From, http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/random-variables-mean-variance.html, Accessed: 14/04/2014

Using the example above, the variance for it is:
() = 02 0.25 + 120.5 + 220.25
() = 1.5 12
() = 0.5
Simply put, the standard deviation is the square root of the variance, as explained in the earlier parts of
this CML. When it is put into the formula state, this is what it looks like: (MathIsFun, 2013)
= ()
Using the example above, the square root of the variance (0.5) is 0.7. This value is the standard
deviation of the probability distribution. (MathIsFun, 2013)
Probability distribution links both probability and statistics as, oddly enough, it uses probability to work
out the mean, variance, and the standard deviation. Mean, variances, and standard deviations are a
part of statistics. This is how probability distribution links probability and statistics together. Also
probability distributions is gathered from statistical experiments. This can be seen by looking at the
examples above. Flipping a coin twice is a form of statistical experiments as the outcome of the
experiment relies on chance. The variance and the standard deviation has the same steps for finding
standard deviation and variances from data conducted in other experiments. This shows the relationship
between probability and statistics. The key concepts in statistics can also be used in probability, and
vice versa. (StatTrek.com, 2014)
Conditional Probability
49
GABRIEL RAYO
As explained in the earlier parts of this CML, conditional probability is the likelihood of one event
occurring when another event has already occurred. Conditional probability relates to both probability
and statistics because conditional probability is a form of probability. Conditional probability relates to
statistics as the assumptions made in probability could be done in an experiment and shown as a fact
or statistic. As an example, multi-step experiments without replacements could be used as a statistical
experiment. The results gathered from the experiments could then be put into a graph where people
can consider it as a statistic.
Conditional probability is also linking probability as dependent events are both part of probability and
conditional probability. More specifically, conditional probability is a sub-topic in probability, and
dependent events are a sub topic in conditional probability. This is the connection between probability
and conditional probability. (StatTrek.com, 2014)
METACOGNITION:
Remembering and Understanding:
Some of the things done in this Journal was pretty easy, such as the Year 10 stuff as I have done some
of the things last year, and the year before. For the most part, the things done in Procedural
Knowledge is much easier to remember because for one thing I did the Year 10 work last year, and
because of the knowledge I have from past educations. But some of the things done in the Year 10
level I forgot, so I decided to do a bit of research to refresh my memory with the topics. This was
mainly for the Factual Knowledge part of the Journal as I have not revised Factual Knowledge as much.
The new knowledge for the Factual Knowledge of this Journal (Statistics and Probability), was easy to
find as I only needed to find the definitions of the topics, and the basic function & concepts of the
topics. Gathering the information for the Procedural Knowledge of this Journal was much harder than
in Factual Knowledge. I noticed while I was doing the Procedural Knowledge, I used up more of my
time than doing the Factual Knowledge topics. This may be because that I had to learn the procedures
of the equations or the topics in this Journal.
The most effective research tool that I used for Statistics and Probability is the search engine Google.
Because most of the topics done in both Factual Knowledge, and Procedural Knowledge was from
searching around Google. They were specific sites that I always come back for the different topics of
this CML, one of these sites is MathisFun.com. I kept on coming back to this site when I am doing the
Factual Knowledge, as they explain the basic concepts & functions of the topic i.e. Equation of a Circle.
Another site that I mainly come back to for Factual Knowledge is mathwords.com, as they explain the
topic and its concepts. For Procedural Knowledge the sites that I mainly use are purplemath, and
university sites. This is because that these sites explain the procedures of the topics in Procedural
Knowledge. They also explain how to use the procedures for different applications, or it could be used
in real life.
I dealt with the misconceptions in this Journal by asking my peers what they have done for the topic I
am getting confused in. I will only do this after I have done the topic, and check if I have done it right.
I will not copy my peers work, but only use it for reference for my work.
Applying:
The topics in this Journal had similar concepts and processes between different contexts because most
of the topics done in this Journal had a common connection with each other. For example, most of
the processes done in this Journal used sets to draw graphs or make probabilities/assumptions about
a set. Some of the topics in this Journal really didnt connect or the concepts and processes werent
very similar between contexts, as they do not use the same processes in another context, but are very
similar to the same contexts.
50
GABRIEL RAYO
Interpreting contextual questions and answering them will be easy for me as long as I study the
processes and concepts of a topic well, and the connections that can be made with those processes
and concepts between different contexts. This is because contextual questions are mainly about
making connections between different contexts. I found that understanding the concepts of one
particular topic has made shifting between contexts easier as I can link the similarities between the
contexts since I can see the relationships between them. When I explored, and explained more
concepts as I was progressing through the Journal, I made more connections between contexts, and
the connections between the contexts were broader, and shifting between contexts will be easier for
me as I can link concepts together that have similarities together between different contexts.
My understanding of concepts have developed a lot while I was doing this Journal. This is because I
can connect different concepts together, and also use those concepts to interpret the place of
mathematics in everyday life. This could be shown in the modelling tasks of previous years, or this
years modelling tasks because the modelling task lets me apply mathematics for everyday uses, such
as the modelling task this year for Statistics & Probability. The modelling task for this year for this
journal was about space and the time it took for a rocket to reach space. Without the right
mathematical skills the graph wouldnt be able to be made. There are other applications the topics on
this Journal could be used in real life. For example, the Procedural Knowledge topics could help in
drawing conclusions from the statistical data gathered in experiments. This could be used in
The learning styles that I am currently using for my learning in all subjects is mainly reading. This is
because when I read, I get clearer view of what they mean because I imagine the things they say in
my head. I need to improve on my learning styles, and try other learning styles, as I could get more
information when I could do different learning styles rather than just one. This could help my
understanding of my topics in mathematics a lot.
Analysing & Evaluating:

The problems that arose involving mathematical models in this Journal was from the topics of the
Procedural Knowledge. There wasnt much confusion in these Journal as Statistics and Probability are
two completely different topics. The problems were mainly on how to connect the mathematical
models done in a topic of a concept in the Procedural Knowledge. This is because the topic that were
being explored in the mathematical model are two separate concepts. There are some topics in
statistics and probability that can be connected to each other, such as relative frequencies and sets.
Others, they are two far apart to find the connection between the two concepts. The assumptions I
did in this Journal when I was developing mathematical models was that if I could use this model for
another concept or topic. This is because I realized that the same processes were being used in
different topics and concepts, and I assumed that the models that would be used in those topics and
concepts would be the same.
The models that I have developed throughout this Journal are good when my peers could understand
what the model means without asking me for help, or asking questions about the model. Another
factor that helps me understand that my model is good is if a person could understand my model
when it is their first time learning about the topic or concept. The mathematical models that have
been developed throughout this Journal are reasonable when the models I have developed could be
used in the Journal test at the end of this CML. This means that the models I have developed has
covered the topics covered in the concepts of the Journal, and is a reasonable model to use in the test.
These models have limits, which means that they cant be used for every topic and concepts. The limits
of the models that have been developed could be found by using the mathematical models in real life,
and apply the models/methods in our everyday lives. This will identify the limits of the models, and
the uses it has in our everyday life.
51
GABRIEL RAYO
The mathematical understanding of other students could be evaluated by giving them the same tests
with the same questions, and the knowledge and understanding of other students could be evaluated
by comparing the results of the tests. Example of it is, when a student gets a better grade, than another
one, you know that the person with the better grades has more understanding of the concepts and
topics that are explored. As I have explained before, I need to learn more learning styles so that I can
learn more and get more information and I would be able to develop specific skills in the future with
my mathematics, and modelling. Not just the learning style of reading, as I can only get limited
information from reading, but when I combine learning styles more information could be gathered to
help me with my studies not just mathematics.
Creating:
For me to think divergently I need to be really focused on what I am doing. Sometimes I can get focused
really easily to the topic I am doing, and sometimes I get really distracted. But if I keep on doing the
methods I have been doing for this CML, I believe it will be easier for me to think divergently. I find it
pretty easy to become inspired and do my work as long as I finish my goals that I have set up for
myself. Having a strong knowledge based in mathematics could help me to work divergently because
the concepts between other concepts could be connected easily. This could help me with my learning
for other subjects, such as science. Having a strong knowledge in mathematics could also mean that
the connections between other mathematical concepts, such as the topics done in Statistics and
Probability could be used in Quadratics and other Polynomials.
Different strategies could improve divergent thinking as it can help open up more ideas, and
connections since different types of strategies could gather a lot of information, as explained in the
earlier parts of this CML. My actions as a learner can help me more creative with mathematics as I
keep on trying to improve my abilities, this will help me improve my mathematical learning because I
want to be the best I can in everything I do. I can use the ILM to help me improve my learning and my
abilities. If a particular colour in the ILM isnt as strong as other colours, I will work to improve with
whatever I am lacking in the ILM. This could help my learning as I can improve the parts of my learning
I am lacking, whether be it my attitude towards learning, or the skills of my learning.
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GABRIEL RAYO
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60

CML 2 - Statistics Probability

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SACE NUMBER: 503732T

Where p is the population proportion

P (black and white) = P (black) * P (white)

http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html, Accessed: 15/03/2014

(Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies, 2014)

(Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies, 2014)

(Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies, 2014)

(Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies, 2014)

(University of Arizona, 2006)

(Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies, 2014)

(Mrs Glosser's Math Goodies, 2014)

(California State University, N.A.)

These percentages are known as the empirical rule.

Picture from, http://stattrek.com/probability-distributions/standard-normal.aspx,

The experiment consists of n repeated trials

For the notations in the formulas for binomial distributions/experiments:

is the number of combinations (StatTrek.com, 2014)

which equals to 120.

b(x; n, P) = 120 7/107 (1 7/10)107

Minimum number is: 1

Maximum Frequency each Age group can hear

Maximum Frequency each Age group can hear

Height of Plants (in cm)

Average Plant growth when hormones are added

) (University of Washington, N.A.)

) ( > 1.74) = 0.0409 (University of Washington, N.A.)

Picture is from: http://nrich.maths.org/7288, Accessed: 26/03/2014, (University of Cambridge, 19972014)

Picture is from: http://nrich.maths.org/7288, Accessed: 26/03/2014, (University of Cambridge, 19972014)

Tables (Lattice Diagrams)

1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6

Picture from: http://www.eprisner.de/MAT107/Probability/Multistep.html, Accessed: 29/03/2014

(The probability didnt change

Pr (Red and Blue)

outcome. This can be better represented with a tree diagram:

Pr (Red and Blue)

P (jeans and shirts) = P( ) = ( )

(Free Math help, 2013)

Can also be written as

. This is why combinations is gathered from permutations. Here

The relative frequency of an outcome can be calculated by using the formula:

Picture from, http://www-math.bgsu.edu/~albert/m115/probability/relfreq.html, Accessed: 13/04/2014

Picture from, http://www-math.bgsu.edu/~albert/m115/probability/relfreq.html, Accessed: 13/04/2014

In a permutation without replacement there will be no repetitions that occurs. An example of a

From, http://www.purplemath.com/modules/factorial.htm, Accessed: 28/04/2014

Picture is from, http://www.purplemath.com/modules/factorial.htm, Accessed: 28/04/2014

Here is an example of applying the pigeon hole principle to solve a problem:

From, http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/random-variables-mean-variance.html, Accessed: 14/04/2014

Analysing & Evaluating:

Haushkrecht, M., N.A.. Set and set operations. [Online]

MathIsFun, 2011. Relative Frequency. [Online]

Morris, V., N.A.. Logic & types of sentences. [Online]

Roberts, D., 1998-2012. Complement of an Event. [Online]

Stapel, E., 2005-2012. Set Notation. [Online]

THe British Medical Journal, 2014. Population and samples. [Online]

University of Sydney, 2010. The Normal Distribution. [Online]

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