NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE PACULTY OF SCIENCE SEMESTER 2 EXAMINATION 2012~— 2013 GEK1544 The Mathematics of Games May 2013 — Time allowed: 2 hours INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES 1, This examination paper contains a total of FOUR (4) questions and comprises FIVE (5) printed pages (including this front page). 2. Answer ALL questions. 3. Candidates are each allow sheet no larger than A~4 to bring in ONE (1) hand-written, double-sided help- we. 4. Candidates may use calculators. However, they should lay out systematically the various steps in the calculations.PAGE 2 Answer ALL the four questions. Question 1 [25 marks} (i) Consider a Las Vegas roulette wheel with ‘numbers’ 0, 00, 1— 36. Suppose that one unit is bet on the number ‘8’ (payoff = 35: 1), one unit is bet on the five numbers “0, 00, 1, 2 & 3” (payoff = 6:1), and one unit is bet on ‘odd? (payoff = 1:1). Consider this combined bet, what is the bettor’s expectation per unit of betting For a Las Vegas roulette wheel, consider three collections of events, denoted A, B and C, with probabilities P(A), P(B) and P(C), respectively. Given that: the payoff for A is a : 1, and the expectation value (per unit amount of betting) is denoted by X(A; per unit); the payoff for B is b: 1, and the expectation value (per unit amount, of betting) is denoted by X (B; per unit) ; the payoff for © is ¢ : 1, and the expectation value (per unit amount of betting) is denoted by X (C; per unit). Here a, b and ¢ are positive numbers. Suppose that there are no common events between A and C' (that is, AMC = 6). On the other hand, it is known that A and B have common events, so are C and B (see Figure 1 for example) Figure 1. Question 1 continues on the next page. ~PAGE 3 Question 1 continues. (ii,) With help from Figure 1, or otherwise, explain why 3P(AUBUC) ~ 2P(A\ANB) ~ 2P(C\ BNC) = 2P(B\[(ANB) U(BNC)}) ~ P(ANB) ~ P(BNC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) Hint: Consider the avea of each individual part, (ii,) Suppose that one unit is bet on A, one unit is bet on B, and one unit is bet on C.. Consider this combined het,, find the bettor’s expectation per unit of betting. Your answer should be expressed in terms of the quantities (uot all may be present) a, b,c, X(A;per unit), X(B; per unit) and X(C; per unit) , and in its simplest form. Justify your answer, Question 2 [25 marks] Consider the number C'(n, 7) given by Car = (21) where n =r > 1 are integers. Recall that 0! = 1. It is equal to “the number of (different) ways to sit m persons in a table with 7 seats in an order not important manner.” (2.2) (3) Using (2.1), show that Cln + 2,7) = Cla, 7) + CR, Y-CQ, 1-1) + O(n, r-2) for all n> r (ii) Find the unknowns a, b, ¢, d, e and f so that the formula Cin + 5,7) = a-On, 7) + b-Eln, r= 1) + O(n, 7-2) 4d-C(n, r=8) + e-C(n, rd) + f-C(n, r-5) holds for all n > r > 6. Present your answers in their simplest forms, and provide an argument to justify your answers. [You may consider using (2.2) .)PAGE 4 Question 3 [25 marks} Consider a zero-sum game with two players (A and B). Player A has strategies Ay and ‘Ap available, while player B has strategies By and By. The payolls for A are shown in the table helow B By A oe = b Ap -@ d Here @, b, ¢ and d are positive numbers, and ab,a>canda>d (i) d>b>e>a END OF THE EXAMINATION PAPER. —