Rena Ju

International Relations
Foreign Policy
1. Making foreign policy
a. Models of decision-making
i. Rational model:
1) Step1: Set a goal
2) Step 2: Evaluate relative importance the
goal to decide whether or not to take
substantial action
3) Step 3: Come up with possible course of
actions and calculate costs and benefits
for each one
4) Step 4: Choose and carry out the action best
suited for the situation
5) Complicated by uncertainty about costs
and benefits: individual decision makers
will propose different sets of possible costs
and benefits
ii. Organizational process model
1) Rely on a standardized course of response
standard operating procedures
2) The decisions made may not always
correspond to the general principles adopted
by the top leaders
iii. Government bargaining (bureaucratic
politics) model
1) Decisions are made through bargaining
among government agencies with diverge
interests
2) Foreign policy decisions reflect a mix of
interests
b. Individual decision makers
i. Realists assumptions oversimplify decision-making
of individuals; decisions reflect values and
beliefs of the individual
ii. Idiosyncrasiesthe distinctive way of though or
behavioraffect the decision making of the
individuals
iii. Systematic ways that also affect individual
decision-making
1) Misperception and selective
perception: people filter the incoming
information on which the decision is based
with information screens that are often
(subconsciously) biased

2) Affective bias: rationality of individual

decision-making can be undermined by the
emotions the person is feeling while
considering the costs and benefitsthis may
contribute to information screening
3) Cognitive bias: distortion of rational
calculation based simply on incapability of
the human brain; people try to maintain
cognitive balance, a mental model of the
world that seem logically consistent
a. Justification of effort: view the action
that have been put most effort into as
significant
b. Wishful thinking: outcomes that are
less likely to happen will not happen
c. Results in hardened images of the
enemy
d. Historical analogies: might be useful
or misleading depending on the
situation
iv. Alternative explanations of individual decisionmaking
1) Bounded rationality: coming up with a
good enough, satisfactory option instead of
the best for a given situation; the best one
can think of
2) Prospect theory: evaluate various possible
outcomes of options using a reference
point, a state of the situation, comparing it
to what the decision maker can do to the
situation
v. xxx
c. Group psychology
i. Groupthink: tendency for groups to come to a
decision without thinking thoroughly about
possible consequences because individuals in the
groups often go with what they think others will
support
ii. Groups tend to be overly optimistic about
successful outcomes thus more willing to take
risks
iii. Structure of decision-making process also matters
ex. Items on the agenda, order in which proposals
are presented
iv. State leaders often rely on an inner circle of
advisor for decisions
d. Crisis management

i. Crisis: outcomes are extremely important and

decision must be made in a compressed time
frame/under time constraints
ii. Communication becomes more stereotyped;
higher chance and effect of information screening;
overlooking creative solutions
iii. Biases may be amplified because of additional
stress
2. Domestic influence
a. Bureaucracies
i. Diplomats: often carry out rather than making
decisions; provide information needed for foreign
policy making; they can be hard to control;
ii. Interagency tensions: certain agencies within a
government clash one another on opinions, a tugof-war occurs when they compete for interests;
they look for actions that are effective and will
increase their power;
b. Interests groups
i. Interests groups: coalitions of people who share a
common interest in the outcome of some political
issue and who organize themselves to try to
influence the outcome.
ii. Gain influence through lobbying: gain a hearing
with busy officials: present cogent arguments for
ones case; trade favors in return for positive
action on an issue
iii. Ethnic groups advocate for the empowering of
their race
iv. Like bureaucracies, play tug-of-wars within a state
to compete for influence
c. Military industrial complex: hugeinterlockingnetworkof

governmentalagencies,industrialcorporations,andresearch
institutes,workingtogethertosupplyanationsmilitaryforces
i. Corporationsthatproducegoodsforthemilitaryprofit
fromgovernmentcontracts
ii. Military officers
iii. Universitiesandscientificinstitutesthatreceivemilitary

researchcontracts
iv. Sometime the cooperation is shared among states
d. Public opinion
i. Views on foreign policies held by citizens
ii. Matters more in a democracy but is also essential
to an authoritarian state
iii. Governments win support from the public using
propaganda or manipulation of media

iv. Decision is sometimes made through a

referendum directly asking for public opinion on
an issue
v. (Democracy) lass effect on foreign policy than on
domestic policy
vi. Attentivepublicinademocracyistheminorityofthe

populationthatstaysinformedaboutinternationalissues

e. Legislature
i. Significant because it holds the ability to approve
or reject new spending
ii. Sometimes rival with the executive, but rarely
over major military operations
iii. Inparliamentarysystems,legislaturesplayakeyrolein

designingandimplementingforeignpolicy