2132 DMR Methodology Attachment For Wed 13 Jan 5am CT Release

THE DES MOINES REGISTER/ BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL
SELZER & COMPANY

500 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.4 percentage points
Study #2132
January 7-10, 2016
3,391 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
Poll Questions
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.

Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here?
100
-
Yes
No
Not sure
Continue
Terminate
How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016will you definitely attend,
probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or
the Republican caucus? (Continue if definitely or probably attend one of the caucuses.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Definitely
attend
Democratic
caucus
Probably
attend
Democratic
caucus
Definitely
attend
Republican
caucus
Probably
attend
Republican
caucus
Probably not
attend a
caucus
Dont know
which caucus
will attend
Not sure
49
51
48
46
47
36
40
39
52
54
53
64
60
61
Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Attended
Republican
caucus in the past
Attended
Democratic
caucus in the past
59
29
60
66
64
68
67
72
4
3
3
4
1
2
12
13
12
11
15
11
24
17
21
17
17
14
1
1
1
1
Attended
both
First
caucus
Not sure
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second
choice as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
First
Second
Combined
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice
4
11
3
25
2
3
2
5
12
1
22
5
4
8
3
23
4
4
1
2
16
1
11
4
8
19
6
48
6
7
3
7
28
2
33
8
11
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
First
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Second
Combined
6
5
6
9
8
5
5
4
7
7
11
10
10
16
15
11
19
13
28
18
10
9
14
19
14
5
10
27
47
32
15
19
3
1
2
4
4
3
2
1
4
3
6
3
3
8
7
25
23
48
31
10
8
5
5
20
9
10
8
6
51
19
18
13
11
1
4
5
2
1
-
4
13
11
3
1
-
5
17
16
5
2
-
3
3
4
9
10
5
3
4
8
7
8
6
8
17*
17
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
1
1
4
4
5
3
2
3
5
4
10
14
3
4
3
5
9
6
9
7
15
23
Marco Rubio
First
Second
Combined
12
16
28
10
9
6
6
3
14
11
8
12
8
24
20
14
18
11
1
2
1
6
4
2
1
2
6
6
3
3
3
12
10
22
11
33
21
19
23
4
1
14
9
9
2
1
35
28
32
6
2
3
3
5
4
2
3
2
1
2
1
4
7
5
7
5
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
4
2
4
5
6
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent

says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice
11
7
11
10
11
7
*Combined does not match below for certain candidates due to rounding.
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among all Rep CGs
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=500
n=400
n=401
4.4% pts
4.9% pts
4.9% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
42
56
33
22
66
78
1
1
Among Cruz supporters
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=123
n=120
n=36
8.9% pts
9.0% pts
16.6% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
51
48
43
37
55
63
2
-
Among Trump supporters
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=110
n=86
n=80
9.4% pts
10.6% pts
11.0% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
64
36
45
32
55
67
(Asked only for each candidate NOT answered as first or second choice.) Im going to mention the candidates who are
not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president or
would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as horserace questions. If
selected as first or second choice, code as 1st or 2nd choice and do not ask.)
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Not sure
1st or 2nd
choice
Ever
Never
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
40
50
45
48
50
38
41
40
39
35
3
2
2
10
11
10
9
16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
52
27
19
55
41
50
47
17
10
12
18
2
3
6
20
26
47
32
15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
43
48
51
45
44
34
40
48
48
45
3
4
5
13
7
3
3
8
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
33
18
48
31
49
54
49
17
27
24
21
2
5
4
18
50
19
18
13
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
50
39
57
54
55
38
33
23
20
27
5
6
9
30
5
17
16
5
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
10
71
20
14
17
20
59
59
51
28
24
28
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
51
40
57
60
60
51
32
31
28
24
3
3
4
9
8
6
8
16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
30
59
32
36
41
29
53
45
40
28
11
14
14
40
4
4
5
3
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Not sure
1st or 2nd
choice
Ever
Never
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
42
48
47
43
43
45
44
45
43
30
4
4
6
10
5
9
8
15
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
46
24
28
56
55
60
49
19
20
19
18
2
5
6
15
23
20
15
18
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
50
46
54
53
56
51
40
38
35
26
3
5
6
11
3
4
3
12
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
24
41
33
33
35
36
28
30
34
29
58
3
3
3
8
34
27
32
6
*Combined in the horserace question does not match 1st/2nd choice for certain candidates in the ever/never
question due to rounding.
Now, Im going to mention some candidates for the Republican nomination for president. For each, please tell me
if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know
enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list.)
Fav
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
Jeb Bush
Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
47
50
10
37
32
18
39*
50
45*
43
46
50
54
43
50
45
43
28
6
14
10
11
17
9
32
36
36
32
29
41
32
25
31
27
25
19
22
18
19
18
18
9
7
7
5
13
11
22
Ben Carson
Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
73*
22*
29
45
16
72
84
79
56
50
41
22
12
8
15
12
8
28
53
46
24
28
24
44
31
33
32
22
17
13
7
6
10
9
4
9
5
2
5
3
4
6
4
13
29
38
51
Chris Christie
Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
51
42
12
39
27
15
46
39*
29
28*
36
39
42*
49
59
58
54
45
8
6
5
6
7
8
38
32
24
21
29
31
24
28
36
39
32
29
19
21
23
19
22
16
11
12
12
14
10
16
Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
76
19
39
37
10
73
61
61
59
58
52
19*
26
24
20
21
18
43
28
29
20
22
20
30
33
32
39
36
32
12
15
17
13
14
11
6
11
7
7
7
7
9
13
15
21
21
30
Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from

Maryland
Fav
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
Carly Fiorina
Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HewlettPackard
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
58
28
13
45
17
11
13
52
66
64
33*
22
15
12
26
31
40
40
33
22
13
8
10
9
7
15
12
21
Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HewlettPackard and candidate for the U.S. Senate
in California
May-15
41*
19*
13
27
12
40
Jan-15
15
19
11
13
66
Mike Huckabee
Mike Huckabee, former governor of
Arkansas
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
59
33
19
40
21
12
53
61
61
61
66
59
38
33
30*
30
28
30
16
18
17
21
28
23
37
43
44
40
38
36
26
22
21
21
21
23
12
11
10
9
7
7
9
6
9
9
6
11
John Kasich
John Kasich, governor of Ohio
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
28
43
22
26
17
29
19
31*
33*
25
22
17
46
33*
22
16*
14
7
5
8
10
7
7
3
14
22
22
18
15
14
31
22
17
11
10
5
15
12
5
4
4
2
34
36
45
59
64
76
Rand Paul
Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
45
43
11
34
29
14
12
37
43*
39*
55
64
59
50*
48*
49
34
25
24
9
12
11
16
25
21
28
30
29
39
39
38
30
29
31
24
18
18
19
18
18
10
7
6
14
10
12
11
11
17
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
73
21*
29
44
14
70
70*
67
60
57
54
21
20
20
17
20
16
24
26
24
20
16
14
46
43
43
40
41
40
15
12
15
12
15
12
6
8
5
5
5
4
9
10
13
23
23
30
Rick Santorum
Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from
Pennsylvania
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
52*
34
12
39
24
10
14
42
51
48*
56
57
52
43*
34*
37*
28
30
30
8
12
11
18
16
14
34
39
38
38
41
38
28
21
26
19
22
20
14
14
10
9
8
10
16
15
15
16
13
18
Donald Trump
Donald Trump, a businessman from New
York
Donald Trump, businessman and
television personality
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
54*
45
26
27
23
22
57
59
61*
27
26
38
37
35
63*
68
25
27
26
7
4
32
32
34
20
22
17
19
16
31
36
21
18
19
33
32
5
5
4
10
6
Earlier, you mentioned you would never support Donald Trump. Do you think of yourself as part of a Stop Trump
effort, or just do not support him? (Asked only of those who say they will never support Trump; n=198.)
Rep CG
5
94
1
Part of Stop Trump

Just do not support him
Not sure
Earlier, you mentioned you would never support Ted Cruz. Do you think of yourself as part of a Stop Cruz effort, or
just do not support him? (Asked only of those who say they will never support Cruz; n=86.)
Rep CG
9
84
7
Part of Stop Cruz

Just do not support him
Not sure
On a different topic now, how often do you attend religious services, if you do at all?
Rep CG
57
13
7
13
9
1
At least once a week

A couple of times a month
Maybe once a month
Only on rare occasions
Do not attend religious services
Not sure
Ask next two questions

Skip to disrupt question
How common is it for you to talk about what candidates to support while you are at a religious servicedo you do
it almost every time you go during a campaign season, once in a while, or typically never? (Asked only of those
who attend religious services; n=451.)
Rep CG
5
23
70
2
Almost every time

Once in a while
Typically never
Not sure
Do you happen to know which candidate any of your clergy support? (If yes, ask:) Do you happen to support the
same candidate that one of your clergy members supports? (Asked only of those who attend religious services;
n=451.)
Rep CG
9
4
84
4
Yes, know support, and yes support the same

Yes, know support, but do not support same
No, do not know whom clergy support
Not sure
How much a part of your support for candidates is because you want to disrupt the way government typically worksis
that the single most important thing you look for, a major consideration, a minor consideration, or something you do not
want in a candidate?
Rep CG
6
42
34
11
7
Single most important

Major consideration
Minor consideration
Not what is wanted in a candidate
Not sure
Thinking just about two candidates[DONALD TRUMP] and [TED CRUZ], which one do you think would be more
disruptive to the way government works?
Rep CG
71
14
6
9
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Equal (VOL)
Not sure
Im going to mention some things people have said about Ted Cruz. Regardless of whether you support him for
president, please tell me for each if this is something that you find very attractive about him, mostly attractive, mostly
unattractive, or very unattractive. (Read list. Rotate.)
Hes angered many fellow members of Congress

Hes guided by Christian values in opposing abortion
and gay marriage
He could be counted on to base his decisions on the
U.S. Constitution
He has little foreign policy experience
He voted to stop the U.S. government from collecting
bulk phone data
He has voted to cut the military
He opposes any path to legal residency for people
living in the U.S. illegally
He has generally avoided criticizing Donald Trump
Like Barack Obama in 2008, he is a first-term senator
He wants to phase out the Renewable Fuel Standard
Very
Attractive
Mostly
Attractive
Mostly
Unattractive
Very
Unattractive
Not
Sure
25
33
18
11
13
54
24
11
70
5
24
17
2
44
2
16
2
18
28
4
32
7
19
45
8
35
13
9
30
34
12
13
32
41
33
24
21
12
24
24
8
6
8
18
9
7
24
21
Ted Cruz was born in Canada to an American mother. Does it bother you or not bother you that he was born outside the
United States?
Rep CG
15
83
2
Bothers
Does not bother
Not sure
Do you consider the candidate or candidates you are supporting to be more establishment or anti-establishment
Republicans?
Rep CG
n=500
4.4% pts
Cruz
supporters
n=123
8.9% pts
Trump
supporters
n=110
9.4% pts
31
52
8
9
24
68
2
6
18
66
12
5
Establishment
Anti-establishment
Some of each (VOL)
Not sure
Which ONE of the following factions of the Republican party describes you best as you think about which candidate to
support: (Rotate list.)
Jan-16
Dec-15
Tea
party
Evangelical
conservative
Mainstream
Republican
Not
sure
22
30
38
24
32
35
10
Were interested in how you decide on a candidate to support. For each of the following, please tell me if this is
extremely important, just important, or not that important to you as you evaluate candidates. If an item does not apply to
you, just say so. (Rotate list.)
How the candidate has performed at debates

How the candidate has reacted to major U.S. news
events
How the candidate has reacted to major news events
outside the U.S.
How the candidate has handled media interviews,
speeches, and television appearances
What the candidate has said on social media
What people you follow have said about the candidate
on social media
How the candidate engages with caucusgoers at events
youve attended
How the candidate engages with people at churches
Extremely
important
Important
Not that
important
Does not
Apply
Not
sure
36
48
12
38
50
38
49
30
13
51
31
16
40
2
14
13
62
20
25
18
43
39
13
24
16
15
3
4
Were interested in issues that affect which candidate you will support. For each of the following, please tell me if this
is extremely important, just important, or not that important to you as you evaluate candidates. (Rotate list.)
The economy
National security
The gap between rich and poor
Taxes
Civil rights
Social issues like abortion and gay marriage
Extremely
important
Important
Not that
important
72
79
15
46
34
47
27
20
40
48
52
33
1
1
44
6
14
20
Not
sure
1
1
-
Were also interested in traits that affect which candidate you will support. For each of the following, please tell me if
this is extremely important, just important, or not that important to you as you evaluate candidates. (Rotate list.)
The values the candidate holds

Your confidence in the candidate to win the general election in
November
Your confidence the candidate will change the way government
works for the better
Experience inside government
Extremely
important
Important
Not that
important
72
27
55
35
66
13
31
44
3
42
1
1
Not sure
Do you think this election is more about leadership or more about issues candidates stand for?
Rep CG
52
40
2
7
Leadership
Issues
Something else (VOL and specify)
Not sure
Im going to mention some things caucusgoers sometimes do as part of campaign activities. For each, please tell me if this
is something you have done, expect to do, or will probably not do before the February 1st caucuses. (Rotate list.)
Follow candidates on social media

Post positive comments about candidates on social media
Post negative comments about candidates on social media
Already
done
Expect
to do
Probably
will not do
27
15
8
11
8
4
61
76
87
Not sure
1
1
1
Did you attend the 2012 Republican caucus? (If yes, ask:) For whom did you vote? (Read underlined names if
needed. Rotate. Asked only of likely 2016 Republican caucusgoers who have attended a Republican caucus in the
past.)
2016 Rep CGs who
have attended a Rep
caucus in the past
n=336
5.4% pts
22
31
14
5
3
4
2
2
7
9
No, did not attend 2012 Republican caucus

Yes, supported Mitt Romney
Yes, supported Rick Santorum
Yes, supported Ron Paul
Yes, supported Newt Gingrich
Yes, supported Rick Perry
Yes, supported Michele Bachmann
Yes, supported someone else
Yes, not sure of support
Not sure whether attended
Compared to:
Study #2130
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for each party
December 7-10, 2015

Study #2128
Margin of error 4.9 percentage points for each party
October 16-19, 2015

Study #2125
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
Margin of error 4.9 percentage points for Democrats
August 23-26, 2015

Study #2122
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points
June 19-22, 2015

1,805 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district
to conform to active Democratic and no-party voters
Study #2118
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
Margin of error: 4.7 percentage points for Democrats
May 25-29, 2015

Study #2113
January 26-29, 2015

Study #2104
October 1-7, 2014

3,677 contacts weighted by age and sex to conform
to active voters in Iowa voter registration list
About the Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted January 7-10 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des
Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 500 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend
the 2016 Republican caucuses and 503 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016
Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 3,391 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of states voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter
registration list.
Questions based on the subsamples of 503 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 500 likely Republican caucus attendees
each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were
repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the
percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of
respondentssuch as by gender or agehave a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.

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THE DES MOINES REGISTER/ BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL

SELZER & COMPANY

PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.

Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent

Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from

Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Part of Stop Trump

Part of Stop Cruz

At least once a week

Ask next two questions

Almost every time

Yes, know support, and yes support the same

Single most important

Hes angered many fellow members of Congress

How the candidate has performed at debates

The values the candidate holds

Follow candidates on social media

No, did not attend 2012 Republican caucus

December 7-10, 2015

October 16-19, 2015

August 23-26, 2015

June 19-22, 2015

May 25-29, 2015

January 26-29, 2015

October 1-7, 2014

About the Poll

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