MEMORANDUM

TO:

INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM:

GLEN BOLGER

RE:

KEY FINDINGS ON THE NORTH CAROLINA CD-9 GOP PRIMARY RACE

DATE:

DECEMBER 7, 2015

The Bottom Line

Robert Pittenger begins the 2016 primary campaign in a strong position. His robust image with primary
voters translates into an even stronger showing on both ballot tests. Importantly, Pittengers dominance
on the ballot tests is a result of his standing with the voters who matter most in a Republican primary
contest: base Republicans, seniors, very conservative voters, and voters who are favorable to the Tea
Party and to the NRA. Pittengers support among these key groups makes him a formidable favorite
heading into the 2016 primary contest.
Key Findings
1.

Congressman Robert Pittenger is well-known and well-liked by Republican primary voters in

the district.
Ninety-seven percent (97%) of primary voters have heard of Pittenger, and his image is 61%
favorable/20% unfavorable. Among key subgroups:

2.

Pittengers image is 71% favorable/12% unfavorable with base Republicans.

Among base Republicans who are strongly favorable to the Tea Party, his image is 80%
favorable/15% unfavorable.

Very conservative voters give the congressman high marks, with his image at a solid 68%
favorable/16% unfavorable among this key group.

By way of contrast, Congressman Pittengers opponents are unknown and undefined.

Both George Rouco and Dan Barry have underwhelming name ID and images among primary
voters:

George Rouco has just 34% name ID, and his image is 12% favorable/6% unfavorable.

Likewise, Dan Barry has just 28% name ID. Barrys image sits at 7% favorable/2%
unfavorable.

Turning Questions Into Answers.

214 N. Fayette Street Alexandria, VA 22314

Phone (703) 836-7655 Fax (703) 836-8117
E-Mail: glen@pos.org www.pos.org

NC CD-9 Survey Key Findings Memo

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3.

Robert Pittenger dominates on both a head-to-head ballot test against George Rouco and on a
three-way ballot test with Dan Barry and Rouco.
In a face-off with George Rouco, Pittenger earns 68% to Roucos 12%. Eighteen percent (18%)
of voters are undecided. Tellingly, Pittenger begins the campaign with a definite vote of 30%
more than double the total vote share of Rouco. Among key subgroups:

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of base Republicans back Pittenger.

Base GOPers who are also very conservative back Pittenger 80%-8%.

Among base GOPers who are senior citizens, Pittenger leads 81%-9%.

Base Republicans who are also religious conservatives support Pittenger 77%-7%.

Voters who support the goals and objectives of the NRA back Pittenger 72%-9%.

The addition of Dan Barry on the ballot test barely puts a dent in Pittengers support, with
Pittenger earning 66% to Barrys 7%. Indeed, the addition of Barry impacts Rouco most, splitting
his vote in half to just 6%, while Pittengers vote is relatively unchanged. Nineteen percent (19%)
of voters are undecided.

Pittenger continues to crush his opponents among base GOPers who are very
conservative, clocking in at 79%.

Pittenger maintains his edge with base GOPers who are senior citizens, earning 80%.

There is no change among base Republicans who strongly favor the Tea Party when
Barrys name is added to the ballot test: Pittenger dominates with 79% among this key
group on a two-way and a three-way ballot.

Methodology
Public Opinion Strategies conducted a survey of 300 likely GOP primary voters in North Carolinas 9th
Congressional District. The survey was conducted by landline and cell phone, using live interviewers,
November 30-December 2, 2015. Twenty percent (20%) of interviews were conducted with cell phone
respondents. The margin of error for this survey is +5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases.