NBCNews|SurveyMonkeyWeeklyElectionTrackingPoll

EmbargoedforreleaseTuesday,February9,2016at6:00AM

TheNBCNews|SurveyMonkeyWeeklyElectionTrackingPolltracksvoterpreferencesandattitudesonaweeklybasisthroughout
the2016electioncycle.ResultsarereleasedeveryTuesdayat6:00AMandareamongregisteredvoters.

ResultsfortheweekofFebruary1,2016throughFebruary7,2016areamonganationalsampleof10,707adultsaged18andover,
including9,484registeredvoters(+/1.5%),2,887registeredRepublicanvoters(+/2.7%)and3,154registeredDemocraticvoters
(+/2.4%).Completeerrorestimatescanbefoundinthemethodologysectionbelow.

TOPLINERESULTS

WhichoneofthefollowingissuesmattersMOSTtoyourightnow?

The
Health Jobsandthe
No
Foreign

Policy
environment Terrorism Immigration
care
Economy
Education Other answer

2/12/7
5
9
15
7
16
32
10
5

1/251/31
5
9
17
8
13
32
10
5

1/181/24
4
8
19
7
15
33
10
5
1
1/111/17
5
8
21
8
13
29
10
4
1

23
8
13
28
8
5
1
1/41/10
5
8

12/281/3
6
8
23
8
14
27
9
5
1

DoyouapproveordisapproveofthewayBarackObamaishandlinghisjobaspresident?

2/12/7
1/251/31
1/181/24
1/111/17
1/41/10
12/281/3

Stronglyapprove
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhatapprove
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhatdisapprove
12
12
14
12
12
12

Stronglydisapprove
38
40
36
40
42
40

Overthepastweek,didyoufollownewsaboutcandidatesforthe2016presidentialelection:

2/12/7
1/251/31
1/181/24
1/111/17
1/41/10
12/281/3

ExtremelyClosely
18
16
12
13
13
13

Veryclosely
30
27
24
26
26
23

Somewhatclosely
34
36
38
38
37
37

Notsoclosely
12
14
16
15
17
17

Notatallclosely
6
7
9
8
8
9

Noanswer
1
1

1
1
1

Noanswer
1

1
1

Inpoliticstoday,doyouconsideryourselfaRepublican,Democrat,orIndependent?

2/12/7
1/251/31
1/181/24
1/111/17
1/41/10
12/281/3

Republican
30
31
28
31
33
30

Democrat
35
34
34
34
32
34

Independent
33
33
36
33
34
34

Noanswer
2
2
1
2
2
2

Asoftoday,doyouleanmoretotheRepublicanPartyormoretotheDemocraticParty?[AMONGINDORDONTKNOWFOR
PARTY]

2/12/7
1/251/31
1/181/24
1/111/17
1/41/10
12/281/3

Republican
Party
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
33
37
39
37
36
37

Noanswer
2
3
2
2
1
1

Ifthe2016Republicanpresidentialprimaryorcaucusinyourstatewerebeingheldtoday,forwhomwouldyouvote?[AMONG
REP&REPLEANERS]

2/12/7
1/251/31
1/181/24
1/111/17
1/41/10
12/281/3

Jeb
Bush
3
3
4
4
3
6

Ben
Carson
7
7
8
8
9
9

Chris
Christie
3
3
3
3
3
4

Ted
Cruz
20
20
17
21
20
18

Carly
Jim
Fiorina Gilmore
2

Mike
Huckabee

2
1
2
2
2

John
Kasich
3
3
3
2
2
2

Rand
Paul
2
3
3
3
3
2

Marco
Rubio
17
12
10
11
11
13

Rick
Santorum

Donald Dont
Trump Know
35
5
39
4
39
9
38
5
38
5
35
5

No
answer
1
2
1
1
1
1

Ifthe2016Democraticpresidentialprimaryorcaucusinyourstatewerebeingheldtoday,forwhomwouldyouvote?[AMONG
DEM&DEMLEANERS]

2/12/7
1/251/31
1/181/24
1/111/17
1/41/10
12/281/3

HillaryClinton

MartinOMalley

BernieSanders

Dontknow

Noanswer

51
50
51
52
52
53

1
2
2
1
2
2

39
39
37
36
37
36

8
8
9
9
8
8

1
1
1
2
1
1

AndwhatarethechancesthatyouwillvoteforthecandidateyoujustselectedintheRepublicanprimaryorcaucusinyourstate?
[AMONGREP&REPLEANERSWHOCHOSEACANDIDATE]

2/12/7
1/251/31
1/181/24
1/111/17
1/41/10
12/281/3

AbsolutelycertainIwill
voteforthiscandidate

LargechanceIllvote
forthecandidate

5050chanceIllvote
forthecandidate

SmallchanceIllvote
forthecandidate

No
answer

41
43
37
40
40
38

40
37
40
39
39
40

15
17
20
19
18
20

4
2
2
2
2
3

AndwhatarethechancesthatyouwillvoteforthecandidateyoujustselectedintheDemocraticprimaryor
caucusinyourstate?[AMONGDEM&DEMLEANERSWHOCHOSEACANDIDATE]

2/12/7
1/251/31
1/181/24
1/111/17
1/41/10
12/281/3

AbsolutelycertainIwill
voteforthiscandidate

LargechanceIllvote
forthecandidate

5050chanceIllvote
forthecandidate

SmallchanceIllvote
forthecandidate

No
answer

55
52
49
50
51
48

28
31
32
32
31
33

13
14
16
15
15
15

3
2
3
2
3
3

1
1

1
1

Regardlessofwhomyousupport,whodoyouthinkwillwintheRepublicannominationforpresidentin2016?
[AMONGREP&REPLEANERS]

2/12/7
1/251/31
12/281/3

Jeb
Bush
2
3
5

Ben
Carson
2
2
5

Chris
Christie
1
1
2

Ted
Cruz
31
21
22

Carly
Jim
Fiorina Gilmore

Mike
Huckabee

John
Kasich
1
1
1

Rand
Paul

Marco
Rubio
18
8
11

Rick
Santorum

Donald
Trump
42
62
49

No
answer
3
2
5

Regardlessofwhomyousupport,whodoyouthinkwillwintheDemocraticnominationforpresidentin2016?
[AMONGDEM&DEMLEANERS]

2/12/7
1/251/31
12/281/3

HillaryClinton

MartinOMalley

BernieSanders

Noanswer

71
72
77

1
2

27
25
19

2
2
2

METHODOLOGY

TheNBCNews|SurveyMonkeyWeeklyElectionTrackingdatafortheweekofFebruary1,2016throughFebruary7,2016was
conductedonlineamonganationalsampleofamonganationalsampleof10,707adultsaged18andover,including9,484whosay
theyareregisteredtovote.Respondentsforthissurveywereselectedfromthenearlythreemillionpeoplewhotakesurveysonthe
SurveyMonkeyplatformeachday.Dataforthisweekhasbeenweightedforage,race,sex,education,region,andvoterregistration
statususingtheCensusBureauandBureauofLaborStatisticsCurrentPopulationSurveytoreflectthedemographiccompositionof
theUnitedStates.

Becausethesampleisbasedonthosewhoinitiallyselfselectedforparticipationratherthanaprobabilitysample,noestimatesof
samplingerrorcanbecalculated.Allsurveysmaybesubjecttomultiplesourcesoferror,including,butnotlimitedtosamplingerror,
coverageerror,andmeasurementerror.

Toassessthevariabilityintheestimatesandaccountfordesigneffects,wecreateabootstrapconfidenceintervaltoproducean
errorestimate.Thebootstrapconfidenceintervalforthissurveyisplusorminus1.4percentagepointsforthefullsampleandplus
orminus1.5percentagepointsforregisteredvoters.

Tocalculatethebootstrapconfidenceintervalweusetheweighteddatatogenerate5000independentsamplesandcalculatethe
95%confidenceintervalsfortheweightedaverage.Whenanalyzingthesurveyresultsandtheiraccuracy,thiserrorestimateshould
betakenintoconsiderationinmuchthesamewaythatanalysisofprobabilitypollstakesintoaccountthemarginofsamplingerror.

Group
UnweightedN
Plusorminus
Totalsample
TotalRVs

RepublicanRVs
DemocratRVs

1824
2534
3544
4554
5564
65+

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

Clintonvoters
Sandersvoters
Trumpvoters
Cruzvoters
Rubiovoters

10707
9484

1.4
1.5

2887
3154

2.7
2.4

825
1282
1468
2238
2708
2186

4.6
3.9
3.6
2.9
2.7
2.9

8402
762
785
758

1.5
4.7
4.8
5.0

2303
2081
1286
917
943

2.7
3.1
3.7
4.6
4.6