The Poisson distribution

The Poisson probability Mass function

Poisson distribution is a limiting case of the Binomial
distribution when
n 20
i.
n
i.e.
p 0.05
ii.
p 0
i.e.
iii.

np average of Binomial distribution

Then probability mass function of Poisson is given

p( x )

x!

x 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ,........

Another Approach to Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution is useful when dealing with the
number of occurrences of a particular event over a
specified interval, where the interval can be time or space.
A random variable must have the following properties to be
classed as a Poisson random variable:

1.

2.

the probability of an occurrence of the event

in any interval is the same as for any other
interval of equal length
the occurrence of the event in any interval is
independent of the occurrence in any other
interval.

The following random variables can possess these properties:

i.

The number of telephone calls arriving at a switch board in a one

hour period

ii.

traffic flow and ideal gap distance

iii.

The number of customers arriving at a cash desk in a shop

iv.

Number of typing errors on a page.

v.

hairs found in McDonald's burgers

v.

Failure of a machine in one month

Any experiment meeting the following conditions is a Poisson Process

(Poisson experiment)
The Poisson probability mass function, for any Poisson process with
parameter The probability of x occurrences in an interval of size t.This is

( t ) x e t
P(x)
; for x 0 ,1, 2 , 3 , 4 ,........
x!
Where
t
x

=
=
=

no. of units of time

no. of occurrences in t units of time.
no of occurrences per unit of time.

Note: the Poisson random variable has no limit on the number of

occurrences.

EXAMPLE 1
A company makes electric motors. The probability an electric motor is
defective is 0.01. What is the probability that a sample of 300 electric
motors will contain exactly 5 defective motors?

Solution
The average number of defectives in 300 motors is
= 0.01 300 = 3

The probability of getting 5 defectives is:

P(x)

x e
; for x 0 ,1 , 2 , 3 , ......
x!

P( x 5)

3 5 e 3
0.10082
5!

Example - 2
If electricity power failures occur according to a Poisson distribution
with an average of 3 failures every twenty weeks, calculate the
probability that there will not be more than one failure during a
particular week
Solution
The average number of failures per week is:
"Not more than one failure" means we need to include the probabilities
for "0 failures" plus "1 failure".

0.15
20

P x 0 P x 1

0.15

0.15
0!

0.15

0.15
1!

0.989

Example - 3
There were 46 aircraft hijackings worldwide. The mean number of
hijackings per day is estimated as 46/365 = 0.126.there is need to
know about the chances of multiple hijacking in one day. Use
= 0.126 and find the probability that the number of hijackings ( x )
in one day is 0 , 1
Solution
The Poisson distribution applies because we are dealing with the
occurrences of hijacking event over a time interval of one day. The
probability of 0 and 1 is
calculated as

P x 0

P x 1

0.126

0.126
0!

0.126

0.126 1
0.111
1!

0.882

Example - 4
The probability that a person dies from a certain infection is
0.003 .Find the probability that exactly 4 of the next 3000
so infected will die
Solution
= n x p = 3000 x 0.003 = 9

x4

94
0.0337
4!

Example - 5
Given that the witch board of an office receives on the average 0.9
calls
per minute, find the probability that
i.
in a given minute there will be at least one incoming call.
ii.
Between 9:00 A.M. and 9:02 A.M. there will be exactly 2 incoming
calls
Iii.
During an interval of 4 minutes there will be at most 2 incoming
calls