Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Introduction
POLICY BRIEF
Massachusetts, like many other Eastern seaboard and Rust Belt states, has a
number of older cities that face serious challenges. These include significant
infrastructure degradation, higher structural costs of doing business, and
difficulties adapting to major shifts in the U.S. and global economies. As a
result, the hollowing out of municipal industrial and commercial bases and
the subsequent flight of the middle class have undermined the vitality and
functional purpose of these cities. In working to address these issues, local
officials have engaged the private sector as well as state and federal partners
to find solutions.
At the same time, Massachusetts is home to some of the most dynamic cities in
the U.S. Cambridge and Boston feature tremendous educational institutions,
healthy labor markets, innovative companies, and rapidly growing populations.
Smaller cities such as Waltham, Lexington, Somerville, and Burlington are
also developing quickly.
Center
for Economic
Opportunity
February
2016
2013
% Change 1970-2013
Brockton
94,089
5.7%
Chicopee
55,717
-16.4%
Fall River
88,697
-8.5%
Fitchburg
40,383
-6.8%
Holyoke
40,249
-19.7%
Lawrence
77,657
16.1%
Leominster
41,002
24.5%
Lowell
108,861
15.5%
Lynn
91,589
1.4%
New Bedford
95,078
-6.6%
Pittsfield
44,057
-22.7%
Springfield
153,703
-6.2%
Taunton
56,069
28.1%
Worcester
182,544
3.4%
1,169,695
-0.3%
State Total
6,692,824
17.6%
1990
2000
2010
2015
Lawrence
11.4%
6.4%
17.2%
8.8%
Springfield
7.6%
4.4%
13.1%
8.8%
Holyoke
8.3%
4.2%
11.4%
7.9%
New Bedford
12.0%
6.5%
13.7%
7.8%
Fall River
12.3%
5.0%
13.0%
7.4%
Brockton
9.0%
3.6%
11.0%
6.6%
Fitchburg
8.9%
4.0%
11.9%
6.2%
Chicopee
6.7%
3.3%
9.7%
6.0%
Lowell
8.2%
3.3%
10.7%
5.8%
Taunton
8.0%
3.2%
9.2%
5.6%
Worcester
7.3%
3.3%
9.8%
5.6%
Leominster
7.2%
3.2%
10.5%
5.5%
Lynn
7.5%
3.4%
9.5%
5.1%
Pittsfield
6.7%
3.6%
8.6%
4.9%
State Average
6.0%
2.6%
7.8%
4.2%
Figure 3A. Per Capita Income (PCI), 2011, in the Middle Cities
Figure 3B. Per Capita Income, 2009, in the Middle Cities, Average vs. State Average
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Brockton
3.56
2.81
3.33
6.00
8.63
5.99
2.64%
Chicopee
2.31
2.01
2.09
2.67
3.89
3.74
2.40%
Fall River
2.91
2.81
2.87
4.34
7.21
5.71
3.43%
Fitchburg
1.42
1.18
1.27
2.04
3.09
2.33
2.51%
Holyoke
1.54
1.12
1.45
1.69
2.36
2.17
1.73%
Lawrence
2.04
1.12
1.45
2.88
4.17
3.05
2.03%
Leominster
1.90
1.71
1.95
3.06
4.34
3.46
3.04%
Lowell
3.82
2.64
3.13
5.83
8.19
6.53
2.72%
Lynn
3.21
2.45
3.00
5.89
7.61
5.73
2.94%
New Bedford
3.10
2.95
2.83
4.69
7.14
5.82
3.20%
Pittsfield
2.37
1.98
2.05
2.55
3.77
3.57
2.07%
Springfield
5.32
4.10
4.26
5.78
8.48
7.23
1.55%
Taunton
2.14
2.25
2.60
4.54
6.62
4.97
4.30%
Worcester
6.84
5.41
6.01
9.69
13.83
12.71
2.68%
Total
42.48
34.56
38.28
61.67
89.33
72.47
7.92%
Source: MA Department of Revenue, Division of Local Services Municipal Data Bank website
http://www.mass.gov/dor/local-officials/municipal-databank-and-local-aid-unit/data-bank-reports/property-tax-information.html
Fire/1000 Arson/1000
Worcester
4.99
0.18
Springfield
6.88
0.07
Lowell
6.21
0.19
Brockton
4.00
0.27
New Bedford
4.06
0.28
Fall River
5.72
0.39
Lynn
5.34
0.06
Lawrence
5.39
0.33
Taunton
2.97
0.23
Chicopee
4.45
0.31
Pittsfield
6.86
0.56
Leominster
5.32
0.49
Holyoke
6.57
0.25
Fitchburg
10.22
0.17
all four years of high school rather than the single year
rates presented above. According to the Department
of Education, approximately 3 to 9 percent of
students drop out over the course of high school in
Leominster, Pittsfield, and Taunton; between 10 and
15 percent in Brockton, Chicopee, Fitchburg, Fall
River, Lawrence, Lowell, and Lynn; and between
18 and 21 percent in Holyoke, New Bedford,
and Springfield.
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2014
BA
Ba
A3
A2
Aa3
Aa3
Chicopee
A3
A3
Aa3
Aa3
Fall River
BAA1
BAA
Baa2
Baa1
A1
A2
Fitchburg
BAA1
Baa1
Baa1
Baa1
A1
A1
Holyoke
BAA
Baa
Baa1
Baa1
A1
A1
Lawrence
BA
Ba
Baa3
Baa2
Baa1
Baa1
Leominster
AA
Baa1
Baa1
A2
Aa2
Aa2
Lowell
BAA
BAA
A3
A1
A1
Lynn
BAA1
Baa1
Baa1
Baa1
A1
A1
New Bedford
BAA
BAA
A1
A1
Pittsfield
A3
Baa2
Baa2
A1
A1
Springfield
BAA
BAA
Baa3
Baa3
A2
A2
Taunton
A3
A3
A1
A1
Worcester
BAA1
BAA1
Baa1
A3
A1
Aa3
Source: Massachusetts Department of Revenue Division of Local Services Muncipal Data Bank website, https://
dlsgateway.dor.state.ma.us/DLSReports/DLSReportViewer.aspx?ReportName=Moodys&ReportTitle=Moody%2
7s%20Bond%20Ratings, last accessed 10/22/15. N.B.: Moodys ratings run in declining order from Aaa to Aa to
A to Baa to Ba to B. In 1997, Moodys added numbers to its rating system to provide additional guidanceeach
letter grade had 1, 2, and 3 added to it, with 1 representing the top third of that letter grade down to 3 representing
the lower third.
Conclusion
Analyzing the trends described in this paper produces
four key conclusions. First, Taunton and Leominster
are clearly the top performers across indicators. In
these two cities, populations are increasing, per capita
and average median household incomes are closer
to state averages, crime is lower, and educational
outcomes are better. More research should be
devoted to understanding the underpinnings of
the success of these two cities compared to other
Middle Cities. Second, while all Middle Cities have
improved educational performance over time, as
measured by MCAS scores, high school dropout rates
in many Middle Cities greatly exceed state averages.
Employment outcomes for workers who lack a high
school education are significantly worse in the current
skills-driven economy. Third, the population decline
in western Massachusetts should elicit significant
concern. While some degree of population decline is
understandable in the context of structural economic
change, population losses in western Massachusetts
may have important consequences for redevelopment
policy. Finally, per capita income in the Middle Cities
10
EQV 2010
EQV 2012
EQV 2014
Debt FY14
Brockton
$6,416.5
$5,986.2
$5,739.7
$248.1
$240.0
$226.9
3.87%
4.01%
3.95%
Chicopee
$3,851.5
$3,735.2
$3,825.0
$27.1
$46.0
$69.5
0.70%
1.23%
1.82%
Fall River
$6,395.8
$5,710.1
$5,362.8
$293.8
$269.6
$235.1
4.59%
4.72%
4.38%
Fitchburg
$2,666.8
$2,327.2
$2,197.1
$85.8
$78.4
$71.2
3.22%
3.37%
3.24%
Holyoke
$2,304.0
$2,173.0
$2,109.0
$55.8
$49.1
$86.8
2.42%
2.26%
4.11%
Lawrence
$3,241.2
$3,052.9
$3,103.0
$150.7
$132.9
$110.9
4.65%
4.35%
3.57%
Leominster
$3,834.4
$3,457.2
$3,260.3
$27.9
$39.7
$55.7
0.73%
1.15%
1.71%
Lowell
$6,968.3
$6,529.0
$6,552.6
$211.2
$230.4
$236.7
3.03%
3.53%
3.61%
Lynn
$5,961.6
$5,732.7
$5,644.5
$89.1
$76.4
$62.9
1.50%
1.33%
1.11%
New Bedford
$6,474.5
$5,818.7
$5,367.0
$230.1
$225.0
$220.3
3.55%
3.87%
4.11%
Pittsfield
$3,776.8
$3,573.6
$3,452.1
$56.1
$65.6
$67.8
1.49%
1.84%
1.96%
Springfield
$7,856.6
$7,233.4
$7,077.7
$321.3
$286.7
$233.3
4.09%
3.96%
3.30%
Taunton
$5,547.5
$4,968.8
$4,620.4
$109.7
$124.5
$128.3
1.98%
2.51%
2.78%
Worcester
$11,928.3
$12,173.6
$11,615.9
$603.8
$592.9
$608.2
5.06%
4.87%
5.24%
Middle Cities
Total
$65,295.3
$60,299.0
$58,311.2
$2,510.4
$2,457.1
$2,413.6
3.84%
4.07%
4.14%
State Average
$2,843.2
$2,847.5
$2,786.4
$35.9
$35.9
$37.9
1.26%
1.26%
1.36%
State Ave.
(Debtors
of Scale)
$6,473.0
6,217.1
$6,091.4
$89.5
$93.6
$96.3
1.38%
1.51%
1.58%
Source: MA Department of Revenue Division of Local Services Municipal Data Bank website, multiple webpages.
N.B.: Debtors of Scale is defined as those communities that have outstanding debt in 2014 and have borrowed in excess of the state average for 2010, 2012, and
2014. This measure is designed to weed out many of the smaller communities that carry little or no debt.
11
Endnotes
1. Weak market focuses too strongly on a citys current economic condition. Gateway focuses on one
important city functionpreparing immigrants for moving up socially and economicallybut does not
adequately describe the loss of functional purpose, the leadership void, or regional market differences between
the Middle Cities and cities in Greater Boston.
2. Kodryzycki, Y, Munoz, Ana, Reinvigorating Springfields Economy: Lessons from Resurgent Cities, Boston
Federal Reserve, October 2009. Page 9. Available at:
https://www.bostonfed.org/economic/ppdp/2009/ppdp0906.pdf
3. U.S. Census Bureau: State and County QuickFacts, Springfield, Massachusetts. Data derived from Population
Estimates, American Community Survey, Census of Population and Housing, County Business Patterns,
Economic Census, Survey of Business Owners, Building Permits, Census of Governments. Last revised 12.2.15
Available at: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/25/2567000.html
4. MA Department of Revenue, Division of Local Services. Available online: http://www.mass.gov/dor/localofficials/municipal-databank-and-local-aid-unit/data-bank-reports/socioeconomic.html. Accessed 10.15.2015
5. The Great Recession and its Impact on Families, Mosakowski Institute for Public Enterprise, Clark
University, March 2010. Page 4. Available at:
https://www.clarku.edu/faculty/dhines/_Family_Impact_Report.pdf
6. MA Department of Revenue, Division of Local Services. Available online: http://www.mass.gov/dor/localofficials/municipal-databank-and-local-aid-unit/data-bank-reports/socioeconomic.html. Accessed 10.8152015
7. MA Department of Revenue, Division of Local Services. Available online: http://www.mass.gov/dor/localofficials/municipal-databank-and-local-aid-unit/data-bank-reports/socioeconomic.html. Accessed 10.15.15MA
Department of Revenue, Division of Local Services. Available online:
http://www.dls.state.ma.us/mdmstuf/socio.htm. Accessed 06.19.2006
8. The standard figure for the property value in a community is the Equalized Valuation, produced by the
Massachusetts Department of Revenue and defined as an estimate of fair cash value of all taxable property in
each city and town as of January 1[and] a measure of the relative property wealth in each municipality.
9. Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports. Available online: https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/
ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/table-8/10tbl08ma.xls. Accessed 10.15.2015
10. MA Department of Education. Enrollment data is October 1, 2015. Available online:
http://profiles.doe.mass.edu/state_report/mcas.aspx. Accessed 10.20.2015
11. MA Department of Education. Available online: http://profiles.doe.mass.edu/state_report/mcas.aspx. Accessed
10.20.2015
12. MA Department of Education. Available online: http://profiles.doe.mass.edu/state_report/mcas.aspx. Accessed
10.20.2015
13. MA Department of Education. Available online:
http://profiles.doe.mass.edu/state_report/plansofhsgrads.aspx. Accessed 10.20.2015
14. MA Department of Education. Available online:
http://www.doe.mass.edu/infoservices/reports/dropout/2013-2014/. Accessed 10.20.2015
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