CBS News Battleground Tracker: Virginia, February 2016

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Virginia
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
1193 Registered Voters

February 22-26, 2016
5.3%
1. Overall, how would you describe the 2016 Presidential campaign so far?
Very interesting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51%
Somewhat interesting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
Not too interesting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in Virginia?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Definitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
I already voted early in-person or by mail (absentee) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
3. In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential primary?
Democratic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41%
Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%

Virginia
4. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Virginia Republican Presidential
primary in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters
Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1%
5. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Virginia Democratic Presidential
primary in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters
Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59%

Bernie Sanders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1%
6. Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Very strong Ive decided . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%

Strong I probably wont change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
Somewhat strong I might still change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Not too strong Ill probably keep looking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
7. Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Very strong Ive decided . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57%

Strong I probably wont change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Somewhat strong I might still change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Not too strong Ill probably keep looking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%

Virginia
8. As President, do you feel each candidate would ultimately do...?
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
What big donors want

22%
36%
52%
38%
What regular people

want
78%
64%
48%
62%
9. On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which
is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Immigration
Matters of faith and
religion
Handling ISIS
Economic Issues
Guns
Obamacare
Must agree with you

67%
Okay with some

differences
33%
31%
69%
63%
66%
77%
69%
31%
37%
34%
23%
10. Do you feel each of these candidates is...?

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Too
conservative
6%
37%
7%
9%
About right
42%
48%
57%
50%
Not
conservative
enough
52%
15%
36%
41%

Virginia
11. Whats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...?
Defend my faith and religious values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%

Win the General election in November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Fight terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Shake up politics-as-usual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Bring back jobs and the American economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
12. Regardless of how youre voting, which candidate do you feel...?

Has the most

optimistic message?
Is the most
conservative?
Has the best kind of
experience?
Has the best chance
to win in November?
Donald
Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco
Rubio
John Kasich
48%
15%
24%
13%
11%
70%
14%
5%
32%
22%
9%
36%
53%
13%
30%
4%
13. If you heard a candidate described as an "establishment Republican" would it make you...?
More likely to vote for them . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%

Less likely to vote for them . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49%
It doesnt affect my vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Never heard the term . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
14. These days, do you feel the Republican party represents you...?
Very well . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Somewhat well . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
Not too well . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
Not well, but at least more than the Democrats do . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42%

Virginia
15. If [First Choice Candidate Name] doesnt get the nomination, who would most likely be
your second choice?
Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
None of them . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
16. Regardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these
candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel right now?
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Understands
74%
83%
Doesnt understand
26%
17%
17. As President, do you feel each candidate would ultimately do...?

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders

46%
22%
What regular people

want
54%
78%

Virginia
18. Who do you think would do a better job on...?
Improving race
relations in America
Gun policy
Being Commander in
Chief
Health care
Standing up to a
Republican Congress
Fixing income
inequality
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
62%
65%
38%
35%
70%
56%
30%
44%
60%
40%
45%
55%
19. Do you feel each candidate is...? Check all that apply.
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Principled
59%
80%
Qualified
87%
54%
Honest
39%
66%
20. When you vote in the Virginia primary, you will be most satisfied about having a chance
to...
Support an historic candidacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%

Shake up politics-as-usual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Get progressive things done . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Give the Democrats a good chance to win in November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50%
21. Should the next president...?

Generally continue Barack Obamas policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41%

Change to more progressive policies than Barack Obama . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51%
Change to less progressive policies than Barack Obama . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%

Virginia
22. These days, do you feel the Democratic party represents you...?
Very well . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30%

Somewhat well . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51%
Not too well . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Not well, but at least more than the Republicans do . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
23. If [First Choice Candidate Name] doesnt get the nomination, how will you feel about voting
for [Other Candidate Name] in November?
Very enthusiastic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%

Somewhat enthusiastic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Not enthusiastic, but probably will vote for them . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43%
Probably wont vote for them . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
24. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?
Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%
Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
25. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?*

Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Questions marked with an asterisk are only asked for respondents who had not answered in a previous
recruitment wave. Earlier responses were used where available.

Virginia
26. In general, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?*
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
Somewhat liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Somewhat conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15%
Very conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
27. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?

Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
28. Are you male or female?

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53%
29. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%

Virginia
30. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?
White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
31. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%

Virginia
1. Interest in Presidential Campaign
Overall, how would you describe the 2016 Presidential campaign so far?
Gender
Very interesting
Somewhat interesting
Not too interesting
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
51%
36%
13%
55%
34%
11%
48%
37%
15%
40%
47%
13%
43%
42%
14%
54%
32%
14%
65%
26%
9%
52%
37%
11%
47%
30%
23%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,192)
(560)
(632)
(199)
(267)
(511)
(214)
(947)
(202)
(23)
(20)

Virginia
2. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in Virginia?
Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Already voted early or absentee
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
70%
10%
11%
3%
3%
2%
1%
69%
10%
17%
1%
2%
2%
1%
72%
10%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
39%
13%
27%
3%
12%
5%
0%
69%
12%
11%
2%
1%
1%
2%
75%
9%
8%
3%
2%
1%
2%
88%
6%
3%
1%
0%
1%
0%
69%
10%
12%
2%
4%
2%
1%
71%
9%
9%
7%
0%
2%
2%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,193)
(560)
(633)
(199)
(267)
(512)
(214)
(948)
(202)
(23)
(20)

Virginia
3. 2016 Primary Turnout

In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential primary?
Gender
Democratic
Republican
Neither
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
41%
29%
8%
22%
38%
33%
8%
21%
44%
25%
8%
22%
32%
19%
19%
30%
50%
20%
5%
25%
43%
30%
8%
19%
38%
44%
3%
15%
34%
33%
10%
23%
80%
4%
4%
12%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,193)
(560)
(633)
(199)
(267)
(512)
(214)
(948)
(202)
(23)
(20)

Virginia
4. First Choice Republican Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Virginia Republican Presidential primary in 2016?
Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
No preference
4%
22%
6%
27%
40%
1%
3%
26%
3%
30%
36%
2%
4%
17%
8%
23%
45%
2%
3%
15%
0%
66%
16%
0%
4%
22%
4%
19%
46%
5%
4%
27%
7%
19%
41%
2%
3%
15%
7%
26%
47%
2%
4%
21%
6%
28%
40%
1%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(481)
(256)
(225)
(62)
(81)
(219)
(120)
(455)
(9)
(17)
(0)

Virginia
5. First Choice Democratic Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Virginia Democratic Presidential primary in 2016?
Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
59%
39%
1%
54%
46%
0%
64%
35%
2%
34%
66%
0%
56%
43%
2%
67%
32%
1%
68%
32%
0%
52%
47%
1%
74%
25%
1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(196)
(275)
(63)
(134)
(199)
(74)
(306)
(159)
(4)
(2)

Virginia
6. Republican Candidate Support

Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Gender
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
40%
39%
19%
2%
39%
41%
17%
3%
40%
35%
22%
3%
47%
44%
9%
0%
45%
32%
18%
5%
32%
45%
20%
3%
47%
28%
23%
2%
40%
39%
18%
3%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(469)
(250)
(219)
(60)
(77)
(215)
(117)
(447)
(8)
(13)
(0)

Virginia
7. Democratic Candidate Support

Gender
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
57%
29%
11%
2%
59%
30%
7%
4%
55%
29%
15%
1%
62%
27%
10%
0%
57%
29%
12%
1%
55%
32%
10%
4%
58%
25%
16%
1%
63%
25%
8%
3%
46%
37%
17%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(465)
(195)
(269)
(63)
(132)
(195)
(74)
(302)
(157)
(4)
(2)

Virginia
8. Republican Candidate Attention Donald Trump

As President, do you feel each candidate would ultimately do...?
Gender
What regular people want
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
22%
78%
28%
72%
16%
84%
39%
61%
30%
70%
21%
79%
11%
89%
21%
79%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(446)
(225)
(221)
(60)
(62)
(208)
(115)
(424)
(9)
(13)
(0)

Virginia
9. Republican Candidate Attention Ted Cruz

Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
36%
64%
37%
63%
34%
66%
23%
77%
42%
58%
33%
67%
45%
55%
35%
65%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(439)
(228)
(212)
(60)
(67)
(205)
(108)
(417)
(9)
(13)
(0)

Virginia
10. Republican Candidate Attention Marco Rubio

Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
52%
48%
56%
44%
47%
53%
19%
81%
53%
47%
56%
44%
61%
39%
51%
49%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(451)
(240)
(212)
(60)
(65)
(211)
(116)
(425)
(9)
(17)
(0)
10

Virginia
11. Republican Candidate Attention John Kasich

Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
38%
62%
39%
61%
37%
63%
24%
76%
32%
68%
41%
59%
43%
57%
38%
62%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(450)
(240)
(210)
(60)
(68)
(208)
(114)
(428)
(9)
(13)
(0)
11

Virginia
12. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Immigration

On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
67%
33%
70%
30%
63%
37%
48%
52%
72%
28%
66%
34%
73%
27%
66%
34%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(475)
(250)
(225)
(62)
(80)
(215)
(118)
(449)
(9)
(17)
(0)
12

Virginia
13. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Matters of faith and religion

Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
31%
69%
30%
70%
33%
67%
20%
80%
34%
66%
34%
66%
31%
69%
30%
70%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(476)
(252)
(223)
(62)
(81)
(216)
(118)
(450)
(9)
(17)
(0)
13

Virginia
14. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Handling ISIS

Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
69%
31%
68%
32%
71%
29%
75%
25%
62%
38%
67%
33%
76%
24%
70%
30%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(252)
(221)
(62)
(80)
(212)
(120)
(447)
(9)
(17)
(0)
14

Virginia
15. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Economic Issues

Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
63%
37%
69%
31%
56%
44%
72%
28%
61%
39%
65%
35%
54%
46%
62%
38%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(253)
(220)
(62)
(80)
(212)
(120)
(448)
(9)
(17)
(0)
15

Virginia
16. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Guns

Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
66%
34%
72%
28%
58%
42%
40%
60%
67%
33%
65%
35%
78%
22%
65%
35%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(252)
(219)
(62)
(79)
(212)
(119)
(446)
(9)
(17)
(0)
16

Virginia
17. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Obamacare

Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
77%
23%
72%
28%
82%
18%
62%
38%
77%
23%
76%
24%
85%
15%
78%
22%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(472)
(253)
(219)
(62)
(81)
(211)
(118)
(446)
(9)
(17)
(0)
17

Virginia
18. Republican Candidate Conservative Level Donald Trump

Do you feel each of these candidates is...?
Gender
Too conservative
About right
Not conservative enough
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
6%
42%
52%
6%
42%
52%
5%
43%
52%
9%
18%
73%
13%
45%
42%
4%
41%
55%
1%
55%
44%
4%
43%
53%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(480)
(255)
(225)
(62)
(81)
(219)
(119)
(454)
(9)
(17)
(0)
18

Virginia
19. Republican Candidate Conservative Level Ted Cruz

Gender
Too conservative
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
37%
48%
15%
40%
46%
14%
35%
50%
15%
68%
20%
13%
48%
49%
3%
30%
54%
16%
27%
51%
21%
37%
50%
13%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(478)
(255)
(223)
(62)
(81)
(218)
(118)
(452)
(9)
(17)
(0)
19

Virginia
20. Republican Candidate Conservative Level Marco Rubio

Gender
Too conservative
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
7%
57%
36%
6%
58%
36%
9%
56%
35%
5%
88%
7%
15%
58%
27%
5%
51%
44%
9%
51%
40%
6%
58%
36%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(250)
(223)
(62)
(76)
(218)
(118)
(448)
(9)
(16)
(0)
20

Virginia
21. Republican Candidate Conservative Level John Kasich

Gender
Too conservative
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
9%
50%
41%
7%
54%
39%
10%
47%
43%
4%
56%
40%
24%
42%
34%
9%
50%
41%
2%
55%
44%
8%
50%
42%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(470)
(251)
(219)
(62)
(76)
(215)
(118)
(444)
(9)
(17)
(0)
21

Virginia
22. Republican Vote Reasons

Whats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...?
Gender
Defend my faith and religious values
Win the General election in November
Fight terrorism
Shake up politics-as-usual
Bring back jobs and the American
economy
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
6%
33%
12%
14%
7%
36%
8%
14%
6%
30%
15%
13%
5%
51%
14%
1%
17%
27%
12%
5%
4%
28%
14%
12%
5%
38%
5%
29%
7%
33%
12%
14%
35%
35%
35%
29%
39%
42%
23%
34%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(479)
(255)
(224)
(60)
(81)
(218)
(120)
(453)
(9)
(17)
(0)
22

Virginia
23. Republican Traits Has the most optimistic message?

Regardless of how youre voting, which candidate do you feel...?
Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
48%
15%
24%
13%
41%
18%
26%
16%
57%
12%
21%
10%
8%
17%
65%
10%
49%
14%
18%
19%
49%
20%
16%
15%
66%
6%
20%
7%
49%
15%
24%
11%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(467)
(247)
(220)
(60)
(72)
(215)
(120)
(441)
(9)
(17)
(0)
23

Virginia
24. Republican Traits Is the most conservative?

Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
11%
70%
14%
5%
11%
75%
9%
4%
11%
64%
20%
5%
8%
89%
4%
0%
14%
63%
18%
5%
10%
72%
12%
6%
13%
62%
21%
4%
12%
71%
13%
4%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(469)
(253)
(216)
(60)
(80)
(214)
(116)
(443)
(9)
(17)
(0)
24

Virginia
25. Republican Traits Has the best kind of experience?

Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
32%
22%
9%
36%
29%
20%
11%
41%
37%
25%
7%
31%
12%
15%
4%
70%
37%
19%
22%
22%
35%
26%
5%
34%
35%
19%
11%
34%
32%
22%
9%
37%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(475)
(256)
(219)
(60)
(81)
(215)
(120)
(449)
(9)
(17)
(0)
25

Virginia
26. Republican Traits Has the best chance to win in November?

Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
53%
13%
30%
4%
49%
12%
33%
6%
58%
13%
27%
2%
36%
16%
48%
0%
67%
2%
21%
10%
50%
19%
29%
2%
58%
7%
29%
5%
54%
12%
31%
3%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(476)
(255)
(221)
(60)
(80)
(217)
(120)
(451)
(9)
(16)
(0)
26

Virginia
27. Establishment Republican Candidate

If you heard a candidate described as an "establishment Republican" would it make you...?
Gender
More likely to vote for them
Less likely to vote for them
It doesnt affect my vote
Never heard the term
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
11%
49%
33%
7%
6%
56%
37%
2%
17%
41%
28%
13%
46%
1%
47%
6%
15%
46%
28%
12%
6%
54%
33%
7%
2%
66%
29%
3%
12%
50%
32%
6%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(479)
(256)
(223)
(60)
(81)
(219)
(120)
(453)
(9)
(17)
(0)
27

Virginia
28. Republican Party Representation

These days, do you feel the Republican party represents you...?
Gender
Very well
Somewhat well
Not too well
Not well, but more than the Democrats
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
6%
35%
17%
42%
5%
28%
20%
46%
6%
42%
14%
38%
15%
72%
1%
11%
15%
40%
14%
32%
1%
30%
21%
48%
4%
22%
21%
53%
6%
35%
16%
43%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(474)
(251)
(223)
(60)
(77)
(218)
(120)
(448)
(9)
(17)
(0)
28

Virginia
29. Second Choice Republican Candidate

If [First Choice Candidate Name] doesnt get the nomination, who would most likely be your second choice?
Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
None of them
8%
24%
22%
21%
13%
12%
9%
24%
26%
18%
12%
12%
7%
24%
17%
24%
14%
14%
9%
25%
42%
7%
7%
11%
7%
33%
27%
21%
3%
10%
9%
23%
20%
27%
10%
11%
7%
20%
12%
15%
28%
19%
8%
25%
21%
20%
13%
12%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(467)
(250)
(217)
(60)
(77)
(213)
(117)
(445)
(8)
(13)
(0)
29

Virginia
30. Democratic Candidate Understanding Hillary Clinton

Regardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel right
now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
74%
26%
68%
32%
78%
22%
68%
32%
73%
27%
73%
27%
86%
14%
70%
30%
82%
18%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(461)
(187)
(274)
(60)
(134)
(199)
(68)
(301)
(153)
(4)
(2)
30

Virginia
31. Democratic Candidate Understanding Bernie Sanders

now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
83%
17%
91%
9%
78%
22%
99%
1%
83%
17%
80%
20%
80%
20%
87%
13%
77%
23%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(461)
(187)
(273)
(60)
(134)
(198)
(68)
(301)
(153)
(3)
(2)
31

Virginia
32. Democratic Candidate Attention Hillary Clinton

Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
46%
54%
58%
42%
37%
63%
71%
29%
52%
48%
39%
61%
33%
67%
59%
41%
22%
78%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(464)
(192)
(273)
(60)
(133)
(198)
(73)
(301)
(157)
(4)
(2)
32

Virginia
33. Democratic Candidate Attention Bernie Sanders

Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
22%
78%
22%
78%
22%
78%
30%
70%
18%
82%
23%
77%
17%
83%
17%
83%
31%
69%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(454)
(189)
(266)
(63)
(134)
(192)
(66)
(303)
(146)
(3)
(2)
33

Virginia
34. Democratic Candidate Job Improving race relations in America

Who do you think would do a better job on...?
Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
62%
38%
55%
45%
66%
34%
36%
64%
54%
46%
68%
32%
80%
20%
54%
46%
76%
24%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(459)
(190)
(269)
(62)
(129)
(199)
(69)
(302)
(151)
(4)
(2)
34

Virginia
35. Democratic Candidate Job Gun policy

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
65%
35%
65%
35%
66%
34%
56%
44%
58%
42%
72%
28%
69%
31%
63%
37%
70%
30%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(459)
(188)
(271)
(59)
(131)
(199)
(70)
(300)
(153)
(4)
(2)
35

Virginia
36. Democratic Candidate Job Being Commander in Chief

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
70%
30%
64%
36%
74%
26%
58%
42%
69%
31%
73%
27%
76%
24%
66%
34%
79%
21%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(462)
(188)
(275)
(60)
(134)
(199)
(70)
(302)
(154)
(4)
(2)
36

Virginia
37. Democratic Candidate Job Health care

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
56%
44%
46%
54%
63%
37%
44%
56%
53%
47%
56%
44%
74%
26%
47%
53%
74%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(463)
(191)
(272)
(63)
(132)
(199)
(70)
(303)
(154)
(4)
(2)
37

Virginia
38. Democratic Candidate Job Standing up to a Republican Congress

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
60%
40%
57%
43%
61%
39%
51%
49%
59%
41%
62%
38%
62%
38%
57%
43%
65%
35%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(459)
(188)
(271)
(60)
(131)
(198)
(70)
(299)
(154)
(4)
(2)
38

Virginia
39. Democratic Candidate Job Fixing income inequality

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
45%
55%
32%
68%
54%
46%
35%
65%
40%
60%
49%
51%
52%
48%
35%
65%
64%
36%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(461)
(191)
(270)
(63)
(129)
(199)
(70)
(302)
(152)
(4)
(2)
39

Virginia
40. Democratic Candidate Qualities Hillary Clinton

Do you feel each candidate is...? Check all that apply.
Gender
Principled
Qualified
Honest
Totals
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
59%
87%
39%
49%
83%
34%
66%
90%
42%
29%
77%
19%
66%
83%
33%
64%
91%
44%
55%
94%
50%
56%
90%
36%
63%
82%
43%
(471)
(196)
(275)
(63)
(134)
(199)
(74)
(306)
(159)
(4)
(2)
40

Virginia
41. Democratic Candidate Qualities Bernie Sanders

Gender
Principled
Qualified
Honest
Totals
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
80%
54%
66%
79%
64%
75%
81%
47%
59%
70%
79%
67%
91%
52%
72%
79%
51%
60%
74%
44%
70%
87%
66%
79%
68%
30%
40%
(471)
(196)
(275)
(63)
(134)
(199)
(74)
(306)
(159)
(4)
(2)
41

Virginia
42. Democratic Vote Reasons

When you vote in the Virginia primary, you will be most satisfied about having a chance to...
Gender
Support an historic candidacy
Get progressive things done
Give the Democrats a good chance to
win in November
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
9%
12%
29%
12%
12%
34%
6%
12%
25%
31%
13%
29%
9%
13%
40%
3%
11%
22%
6%
9%
28%
12%
12%
31%
3%
12%
26%
50%
42%
57%
28%
37%
64%
58%
46%
59%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(462)
(196)
(265)
(63)
(134)
(190)
(74)
(306)
(149)
(4)
(2)
42

Virginia
43. Next President Policies

Should the next president...?
Gender
Continue Obama policies
More progressive policies
Less progressive policies
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
41%
51%
8%
35%
57%
8%
45%
47%
8%
35%
55%
10%
44%
54%
2%
34%
53%
13%
59%
40%
1%
33%
62%
5%
54%
32%
13%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(196)
(275)
(63)
(134)
(199)
(74)
(306)
(159)
(4)
(2)
43

Virginia
44. Democratic Party Representation

These days, do you feel the Democratic party represents you...?
Gender
Very well
Somewhat well
Not too well
Not well, but more than the
Republicans
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
30%
51%
5%
24%
57%
6%
34%
46%
5%
45%
37%
5%
23%
56%
3%
26%
56%
5%
40%
38%
9%
28%
52%
5%
33%
50%
7%
14%
13%
15%
14%
18%
13%
13%
16%
10%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(196)
(275)
(63)
(134)
(199)
(74)
(306)
(159)
(4)
(2)
44

Virginia
45. Enthusiasm for Other Candidate

If [First Choice Candidate Name] doesnt get the nomination, how will you feel about voting for [Other Candidate Name] in November?
Gender
Very enthusiastic
Somewhat enthusiastic
Not enthusiastic, but probably will vote
for them
Probably wont vote for them
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
21%
22%
28%
23%
15%
22%
53%
6%
13%
20%
20%
22%
10%
41%
28%
22%
6%
24%
43%
14%
36%
13%
47%
16%
25%
16%
46%
21%
49%
9%
33%
16%
35%
16%
58%
12%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(465)
(195)
(270)
(63)
(132)
(196)
(74)
(302)
(157)
(4)
(2)
45

Virginia Likely Republican Voters
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
481 Likely Republican Primary Voters

8.6%

Ideology
Very interesting
Not too interesting
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
76%
20%
4%
77%
18%
6%
82%
16%
2%
68%
26%
6%
79%
18%
4%
74%
22%
4%
72%
24%
4%
82%
14%
4%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(481)
(156)
(206)
(91)
(228)
(251)
(187)
(257)
Gender
Very interesting
Not too interesting
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
76%
20%
4%
77%
20%
3%
75%
19%
5%
78%
17%
5%
58%
36%
6%
80%
16%
4%
80%
16%
4%
74%
20%
5%
79%
19%
2%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(481)
(256)
(225)
(62)
(81)
(219)
(120)
(366)
(83)

2. First Choice Republican Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Virginia Republican Presidential primary in 2016?
Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
No preference
4%
22%
6%
27%
40%
1%
6%
35%
1%
19%
37%
2%
1%
11%
6%
38%
43%
1%
4%
25%
10%
22%
37%
2%
5%
27%
1%
20%
45%
2%
2%
17%
10%
33%
36%
2%
6%
23%
1%
14%
55%
1%
1%
20%
6%
39%
31%
3%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(481)
(156)
(206)
(91)
(228)
(251)
(187)
(257)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
No preference
4%
22%
6%
27%
40%
1%
3%
26%
3%
30%
36%
2%
4%
17%
8%
23%
45%
2%
3%
15%
0%
66%
16%
0%
4%
22%
4%
19%
46%
5%
4%
27%
7%
19%
41%
2%
3%
15%
7%
26%
47%
2%
4%
23%
5%
29%
38%
2%
2%
17%
6%
21%
52%
1%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(481)
(256)
(225)
(62)
(81)
(219)
(120)
(366)
(83)

3. Republican Candidate Support

Ideology
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
40%
39%
19%
2%
43%
41%
15%
2%
37%
40%
22%
2%
38%
34%
24%
4%
40%
37%
22%
1%
39%
40%
16%
5%
40%
38%
20%
2%
40%
37%
19%
4%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(469)
(152)
(204)
(90)
(223)
(245)
(186)
(249)
Gender
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
40%
39%
19%
2%
39%
41%
17%
3%
40%
35%
22%
3%
47%
44%
9%
0%
45%
32%
18%
5%
32%
45%
20%
3%
47%
28%
23%
2%
38%
41%
19%
2%
47%
34%
18%
2%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(469)
(250)
(219)
(60)
(77)
(215)
(117)
(358)
(82)

4. Republican Candidate Attention Donald Trump

Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
22%
78%
30%
70%
10%
90%
32%
68%
22%
78%
22%
78%
19%
81%
23%
77%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(446)
(151)
(195)
(77)
(225)
(221)
(179)
(232)
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
22%
78%
28%
72%
16%
84%
39%
61%
30%
70%
21%
79%
11%
89%
23%
77%
19%
81%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(446)
(225)
(221)
(60)
(62)
(208)
(115)
(341)
(76)

5. Republican Candidate Attention Ted Cruz

Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
36%
64%
25%
75%
28%
72%
65%
35%
31%
69%
40%
60%
30%
70%
41%
59%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(439)
(149)
(187)
(84)
(211)
(229)
(168)
(241)
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
36%
64%
37%
63%
34%
66%
23%
77%
42%
58%
33%
67%
45%
55%
33%
67%
47%
53%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(439)
(228)
(212)
(60)
(67)
(205)
(108)
(334)
(76)

6. Republican Candidate Attention Marco Rubio

Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
52%
48%
53%
47%
49%
51%
48%
52%
60%
40%
45%
55%
48%
52%
51%
49%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(451)
(154)
(194)
(77)
(216)
(235)
(179)
(241)
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
52%
48%
56%
44%
47%
53%
19%
81%
53%
47%
56%
44%
61%
39%
46%
54%
66%
34%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(451)
(240)
(212)
(60)
(65)
(211)
(116)
(337)
(81)

7. Republican Candidate Attention John Kasich

Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
38%
62%
49%
51%
32%
68%
25%
75%
51%
49%
26%
74%
42%
58%
33%
67%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(450)
(148)
(194)
(86)
(212)
(239)
(174)
(245)
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
38%
62%
39%
61%
37%
63%
24%
76%
32%
68%
41%
59%
43%
57%
35%
65%
42%
58%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(450)
(240)
(210)
(60)
(68)
(208)
(114)
(340)
(81)

8. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Immigration

Ideology
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
67%
33%
78%
22%
64%
36%
56%
44%
82%
18%
53%
47%
74%
26%
62%
38%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(475)
(154)
(202)
(90)
(226)
(247)
(185)
(253)
Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
67%
33%
70%
30%
63%
37%
48%
52%
72%
28%
66%
34%
73%
27%
67%
33%
67%
33%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(475)
(250)
(225)
(62)
(80)
(215)
(118)
(359)
(83)

9. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Matters of faith and religion

Ideology
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
31%
69%
41%
59%
28%
72%
20%
80%
30%
70%
32%
68%
59%
41%
12%
88%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(476)
(153)
(203)
(91)
(227)
(247)
(187)
(252)
Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
31%
69%
30%
70%
33%
67%
20%
80%
34%
66%
34%
66%
31%
69%
34%
66%
27%
73%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(476)
(252)
(223)
(62)
(81)
(216)
(118)
(360)
(83)

10. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Handling ISIS

Ideology
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
69%
31%
76%
24%
75%
25%
54%
46%
78%
22%
62%
38%
73%
27%
71%
29%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(155)
(198)
(91)
(223)
(247)
(187)
(253)
Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
69%
31%
68%
32%
71%
29%
75%
25%
62%
38%
67%
33%
76%
24%
73%
27%
60%
40%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(252)
(221)
(62)
(80)
(212)
(120)
(357)
(83)
10

11. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Economic Issues

Ideology
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
63%
37%
64%
36%
63%
37%
67%
33%
66%
34%
60%
40%
64%
36%
66%
34%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(155)
(200)
(91)
(223)
(248)
(187)
(254)
Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
63%
37%
69%
31%
56%
44%
72%
28%
61%
39%
65%
35%
54%
46%
64%
36%
63%
37%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(253)
(220)
(62)
(80)
(212)
(120)
(358)
(82)
11

12. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Guns

Ideology
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
66%
34%
83%
17%
60%
40%
54%
46%
85%
15%
48%
52%
71%
29%
66%
34%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(154)
(198)
(91)
(222)
(247)
(184)
(255)
Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
66%
34%
72%
28%
58%
42%
40%
60%
67%
33%
65%
35%
78%
22%
65%
35%
64%
36%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(252)
(219)
(62)
(79)
(212)
(119)
(356)
(83)
12

13. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Obamacare

Ideology
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
77%
23%
88%
12%
79%
21%
57%
43%
86%
14%
69%
31%
76%
24%
76%
24%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(472)
(154)
(198)
(91)
(221)
(249)
(185)
(254)
Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
77%
23%
72%
28%
82%
18%
62%
38%
77%
23%
76%
24%
85%
15%
77%
23%
71%
29%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(472)
(253)
(219)
(62)
(81)
(211)
(118)
(357)
(83)
13

14. Republican Candidate Conservative Level Donald Trump

Ideology
Too conservative
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
6%
42%
52%
4%
35%
62%
2%
46%
52%
7%
43%
50%
3%
45%
52%
7%
40%
53%
4%
52%
44%
7%
36%
57%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(480)
(155)
(206)
(91)
(227)
(251)
(187)
(256)
Gender
Too conservative
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
6%
42%
52%
6%
42%
52%
5%
43%
52%
9%
18%
73%
13%
45%
42%
4%
41%
55%
1%
55%
44%
4%
40%
55%
2%
51%
47%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(480)
(255)
(225)
(62)
(81)
(219)
(119)
(365)
(83)
14

15. Republican Candidate Conservative Level Ted Cruz

Ideology
Too conservative
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
37%
48%
15%
17%
64%
19%
41%
50%
9%
60%
24%
16%
16%
65%
19%
57%
32%
10%
17%
62%
21%
53%
36%
11%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(478)
(154)
(205)
(91)
(227)
(249)
(187)
(254)
Gender
Too conservative
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
37%
48%
15%
40%
46%
14%
35%
50%
15%
68%
20%
13%
48%
49%
3%
30%
54%
16%
27%
51%
21%
34%
51%
15%
43%
42%
15%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(478)
(255)
(223)
(62)
(81)
(218)
(118)
(363)
(83)
15

16. Republican Candidate Conservative Level Marco Rubio

Ideology
Too conservative
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
7%
57%
36%
1%
50%
49%
5%
62%
34%
12%
68%
21%
1%
51%
49%
14%
63%
24%
1%
56%
44%
12%
61%
27%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(152)
(202)
(91)
(227)
(245)
(183)
(254)
Gender
Too conservative
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
7%
57%
36%
6%
58%
36%
9%
56%
35%
5%
88%
7%
15%
58%
27%
5%
51%
44%
9%
51%
40%
3%
63%
34%
13%
38%
49%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(250)
(223)
(62)
(76)
(218)
(118)
(361)
(79)
16

17. Republican Candidate Conservative Level John Kasich

Ideology
Too conservative
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
9%
50%
41%
2%
35%
63%
6%
59%
34%
17%
62%
21%
1%
45%
54%
16%
56%
29%
8%
43%
49%
9%
56%
35%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(470)
(150)
(206)
(87)
(225)
(243)
(186)
(249)
Gender
Too conservative
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
9%
50%
41%
7%
54%
39%
10%
47%
43%
4%
56%
40%
24%
42%
34%
9%
50%
41%
2%
55%
44%
8%
51%
42%
5%
58%
38%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(470)
(251)
(219)
(62)
(76)
(215)
(118)
(359)
(78)
17

18. Republican Vote Reasons

Whats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...?
Ideology
Fight terrorism
economy
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
6%
33%
12%
14%
8%
29%
9%
19%
1%
42%
14%
11%
11%
24%
8%
13%
6%
30%
10%
17%
7%
36%
13%
11%
11%
30%
10%
15%
4%
39%
8%
14%
35%
35%
33%
43%
37%
34%
34%
36%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(479)
(155)
(205)
(91)
(228)
(251)
(187)
(256)
Gender
Fight terrorism
economy
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
6%
33%
12%
14%
7%
36%
8%
14%
6%
30%
15%
13%
5%
51%
14%
1%
17%
27%
12%
5%
4%
28%
14%
12%
5%
38%
5%
29%
8%
34%
13%
12%
4%
32%
8%
16%
35%
35%
35%
29%
39%
42%
23%
33%
40%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(479)
(255)
(224)
(60)
(81)
(218)
(120)
(363)
(83)
18

19. Republican Traits Has the most optimistic message?

Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
48%
15%
24%
13%
46%
27%
24%
4%
51%
9%
28%
12%
50%
7%
17%
26%
56%
21%
16%
7%
41%
9%
30%
19%
63%
19%
15%
3%
40%
11%
32%
18%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(467)
(152)
(206)
(82)
(225)
(242)
(187)
(245)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
48%
15%
24%
13%
41%
18%
26%
16%
57%
12%
21%
10%
8%
17%
65%
10%
49%
14%
18%
19%
49%
20%
16%
15%
66%
6%
20%
7%
46%
16%
26%
11%
57%
12%
18%
13%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(467)
(247)
(220)
(60)
(72)
(215)
(120)
(354)
(83)
19

20. Republican Traits Is the most conservative?

Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
11%
70%
14%
5%
14%
63%
14%
8%
12%
73%
12%
3%
6%
73%
19%
2%
18%
68%
8%
6%
6%
72%
20%
3%
16%
64%
15%
6%
7%
79%
10%
3%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(469)
(150)
(204)
(89)
(223)
(246)
(184)
(250)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
11%
70%
14%
5%
11%
75%
9%
4%
11%
64%
20%
5%
8%
89%
4%
0%
14%
63%
18%
5%
10%
72%
12%
6%
13%
62%
21%
4%
12%
68%
16%
5%
10%
74%
12%
5%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(469)
(253)
(216)
(60)
(80)
(214)
(116)
(356)
(80)
20

21. Republican Traits Has the best kind of experience?

Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
32%
22%
9%
36%
31%
35%
10%
24%
37%
15%
5%
43%
22%
17%
19%
41%
41%
29%
6%
23%
25%
15%
12%
48%
44%
30%
9%
17%
26%
13%
10%
50%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(475)
(154)
(206)
(89)
(226)
(249)
(184)
(256)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
32%
22%
9%
36%
29%
20%
11%
41%
37%
25%
7%
31%
12%
15%
4%
70%
37%
19%
22%
22%
35%
26%
5%
34%
35%
19%
11%
34%
31%
24%
11%
34%
40%
17%
6%
38%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(475)
(256)
(219)
(60)
(81)
(215)
(120)
(362)
(81)
21

22. Republican Traits Has the best chance to win in November?

Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
53%
13%
30%
4%
58%
18%
22%
2%
51%
8%
39%
2%
52%
11%
28%
9%
62%
15%
22%
1%
45%
11%
38%
7%
64%
18%
16%
1%
46%
6%
42%
6%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(476)
(154)
(206)
(91)
(226)
(250)
(185)
(256)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
53%
13%
30%
4%
49%
12%
33%
6%
58%
13%
27%
2%
36%
16%
48%
0%
67%
2%
21%
10%
50%
19%
29%
2%
58%
7%
29%
5%
54%
14%
29%
3%
52%
10%
34%
3%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(476)
(255)
(221)
(60)
(80)
(217)
(120)
(361)
(82)
22

23. Establishment Republican Candidate

If you heard a candidate described as an "establishment Republican" would it make you...?
Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
11%
49%
33%
7%
8%
51%
34%
7%
16%
51%
27%
6%
9%
50%
30%
11%
2%
67%
24%
7%
20%
32%
41%
7%
11%
50%
29%
10%
12%
47%
38%
2%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(479)
(156)
(206)
(91)
(228)
(251)
(187)
(257)
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
11%
49%
33%
7%
6%
56%
37%
2%
17%
41%
28%
13%
46%
1%
47%
6%
15%
46%
28%
12%
6%
54%
33%
7%
2%
66%
29%
3%
15%
45%
32%
9%
0%
74%
26%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(479)
(256)
(223)
(60)
(81)
(219)
(120)
(364)
(83)
23

24. Republican Party Representation

These days, do you feel the Republican party represents you...?
Ideology
Very well
Somewhat well
Not too well
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
6%
35%
17%
42%
11%
26%
22%
41%
4%
42%
10%
43%
1%
35%
15%
49%
4%
25%
17%
54%
8%
44%
18%
31%
9%
32%
19%
40%
3%
34%
17%
46%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(474)
(155)
(206)
(87)
(227)
(247)
(187)
(253)
Gender
Very well
Somewhat well
Not too well
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
6%
35%
17%
42%
5%
28%
20%
46%
6%
42%
14%
38%
15%
72%
1%
11%
15%
40%
14%
32%
1%
30%
21%
48%
4%
22%
21%
53%
7%
43%
13%
38%
1%
10%
27%
62%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(474)
(251)
(223)
(60)
(77)
(218)
(120)
(363)
(78)
24

25. Second Choice Republican Candidate

If [First Choice Candidate Name] doesnt get the nomination, who would most likely be your second choice?
Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
None of them
8%
24%
22%
21%
13%
12%
7%
31%
9%
27%
14%
12%
6%
28%
29%
16%
15%
6%
9%
8%
33%
25%
7%
18%
8%
33%
12%
20%
17%
10%
8%
16%
31%
21%
9%
15%
10%
37%
12%
22%
10%
10%
7%
17%
32%
14%
16%
14%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(467)
(151)
(204)
(90)
(222)
(245)
(184)
(249)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
None of them
8%
24%
22%
21%
13%
12%
9%
24%
26%
18%
12%
12%
7%
24%
17%
24%
14%
14%
9%
25%
42%
7%
7%
11%
7%
33%
27%
21%
3%
10%
9%
23%
20%
27%
10%
11%
7%
20%
12%
15%
28%
19%
9%
24%
21%
24%
13%
10%
8%
27%
23%
8%
14%
21%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(467)
(250)
(217)
(60)
(77)
(213)
(117)
(356)
(82)
25

Virginia Likely Democratic Voters
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
471 Likely Democratic Primary Voters

9.2%

Ideology
Very interesting
Not too interesting
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
59%
26%
14%
73%
24%
3%
47%
46%
7%
59%
21%
20%
67%
27%
6%
45%
26%
30%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(173)
(95)
(153)
(305)
(159)
Gender
Very interesting
Not too interesting
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
59%
26%
14%
72%
20%
8%
51%
31%
19%
87%
10%
3%
46%
43%
11%
61%
22%
16%
54%
22%
24%
56%
29%
15%
64%
21%
16%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(196)
(275)
(63)
(134)
(199)
(74)
(365)
(65)

2. First Choice Democratic Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Virginia Democratic Presidential primary in 2016?
Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
59%
39%
1%
41%
59%
0%
65%
34%
1%
74%
24%
2%
52%
47%
1%
74%
25%
1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(173)
(95)
(153)
(306)
(159)
Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
59%
39%
1%
54%
46%
0%
64%
35%
2%
34%
66%
0%
56%
43%
2%
67%
32%
1%
68%
32%
0%
59%
40%
1%
61%
39%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(196)
(275)
(63)
(134)
(199)
(74)
(365)
(65)

3. Democratic Candidate Support

Ideology
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
57%
29%
11%
2%
77%
19%
3%
0%
60%
29%
11%
0%
43%
36%
19%
2%
63%
25%
8%
3%
46%
37%
17%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(465)
(171)
(94)
(150)
(302)
(157)
Gender
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
57%
29%
11%
2%
59%
30%
7%
4%
55%
29%
15%
1%
62%
27%
10%
0%
57%
29%
12%
1%
55%
32%
10%
4%
58%
25%
16%
1%
63%
27%
10%
1%
34%
46%
20%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(465)
(195)
(269)
(63)
(132)
(195)
(74)
(360)
(65)

4. Democratic Candidate Understanding Hillary Clinton

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
74%
26%
63%
37%
75%
25%
87%
13%
70%
30%
82%
18%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(461)
(169)
(95)
(151)
(301)
(153)
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
74%
26%
68%
32%
78%
22%
68%
32%
73%
27%
73%
27%
86%
14%
75%
25%
76%
24%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(461)
(187)
(274)
(60)
(134)
(199)
(68)
(359)
(62)

5. Democratic Candidate Understanding Bernie Sanders

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
83%
17%
89%
11%
84%
16%
80%
20%
87%
13%
77%
23%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(461)
(169)
(95)
(150)
(301)
(153)
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
83%
17%
91%
9%
78%
22%
99%
1%
83%
17%
80%
20%
80%
20%
80%
20%
94%
6%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(461)
(187)
(273)
(60)
(134)
(198)
(68)
(358)
(62)

6. Democratic Candidate Attention Hillary Clinton

Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
46%
54%
62%
38%
44%
56%
34%
66%
59%
41%
22%
78%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(464)
(168)
(95)
(152)
(301)
(157)
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
46%
54%
58%
42%
37%
63%
71%
29%
52%
48%
39%
61%
33%
67%
47%
53%
36%
64%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(464)
(192)
(273)
(60)
(133)
(198)
(73)
(362)
(62)

7. Democratic Candidate Attention Bernie Sanders

Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
22%
78%
15%
85%
15%
85%
26%
74%
17%
83%
31%
69%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(454)
(172)
(95)
(143)
(303)
(146)
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
22%
78%
22%
78%
22%
78%
30%
70%
18%
82%
23%
77%
17%
83%
25%
75%
4%
96%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(454)
(189)
(266)
(63)
(134)
(192)
(66)
(349)
(65)

8. Democratic Candidate Job Improving race relations in America

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
62%
38%
39%
61%
73%
27%
79%
21%
54%
46%
76%
24%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(459)
(173)
(92)
(151)
(302)
(151)
Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
62%
38%
55%
45%
66%
34%
36%
64%
54%
46%
68%
32%
80%
20%
63%
37%
53%
47%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(459)
(190)
(269)
(62)
(129)
(199)
(69)
(355)
(64)

9. Democratic Candidate Job Gun policy

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
65%
35%
63%
37%
62%
38%
71%
29%
63%
37%
70%
30%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(459)
(169)
(94)
(152)
(300)
(153)
Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
65%
35%
65%
35%
66%
34%
56%
44%
58%
42%
72%
28%
69%
31%
68%
32%
67%
33%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(459)
(188)
(271)
(59)
(131)
(199)
(70)
(357)
(62)

10. Democratic Candidate Job Being Commander in Chief

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
70%
30%
60%
40%
80%
20%
76%
24%
66%
34%
79%
21%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(462)
(169)
(95)
(152)
(302)
(154)
Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
70%
30%
64%
36%
74%
26%
58%
42%
69%
31%
73%
27%
76%
24%
74%
26%
66%
34%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(462)
(188)
(275)
(60)
(134)
(199)
(70)
(361)
(62)
10

11. Democratic Candidate Job Health care

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
56%
44%
38%
62%
61%
39%
72%
28%
47%
53%
74%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(463)
(172)
(95)
(153)
(303)
(154)
Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
56%
44%
46%
54%
63%
37%
44%
56%
53%
47%
56%
44%
74%
26%
58%
42%
38%
62%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(463)
(191)
(272)
(63)
(132)
(199)
(70)
(358)
(65)
11

12. Democratic Candidate Job Standing up to a Republican Congress

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
60%
40%
39%
61%
68%
32%
76%
24%
57%
43%
65%
35%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(459)
(169)
(95)
(152)
(299)
(154)
Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
60%
40%
57%
43%
61%
39%
51%
49%
59%
41%
62%
38%
62%
38%
58%
42%
64%
36%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(459)
(188)
(271)
(60)
(131)
(198)
(70)
(357)
(62)
12

13. Democratic Candidate Job Fixing income inequality

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
45%
55%
27%
73%
49%
51%
56%
44%
35%
65%
64%
36%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(461)
(172)
(95)
(150)
(302)
(152)
Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
45%
55%
32%
68%
54%
46%
35%
65%
40%
60%
49%
51%
52%
48%
46%
54%
22%
78%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(461)
(191)
(270)
(63)
(129)
(199)
(70)
(356)
(65)
13

14. Democratic Candidate Qualities Hillary Clinton

Ideology
Principled
Qualified
Honest
Totals
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
59%
87%
39%
47%
88%
31%
73%
95%
43%
64%
84%
52%
56%
90%
36%
63%
82%
43%
(471)
(173)
(95)
(153)
(306)
(159)
Gender
Principled
Qualified
Honest
Totals
Race
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
59%
87%
39%
49%
83%
34%
66%
90%
42%
29%
77%
19%
66%
83%
33%
64%
91%
44%
55%
94%
50%
60%
90%
39%
64%
90%
36%
(471)
(196)
(275)
(63)
(134)
(199)
(74)
(365)
(65)
14

15. Democratic Candidate Qualities Bernie Sanders

Ideology
Principled
Qualified
Honest
Totals
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
80%
54%
66%
88%
72%
80%
95%
46%
79%
66%
44%
50%
87%
66%
79%
68%
30%
40%
(471)
(173)
(95)
(153)
(306)
(159)
Gender
Principled
Qualified
Honest
Totals
Race
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
80%
54%
66%
79%
64%
75%
81%
47%
59%
70%
79%
67%
91%
52%
72%
79%
51%
60%
74%
44%
70%
82%
54%
66%
92%
59%
85%
(471)
(196)
(275)
(63)
(134)
(199)
(74)
(365)
(65)
15

16. Democratic Vote Reasons

When you vote in the Virginia primary, you will be most satisfied about having a chance to...
Ideology
win in November
Totals
(Weighted N)
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
9%
12%
29%
8%
3%
42%
13%
14%
12%
9%
14%
27%
12%
12%
31%
3%
12%
26%
50%
46%
61%
50%
46%
59%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(462)
(163)
(95)
(153)
(306)
(149)
Gender
win in November
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
9%
12%
29%
12%
12%
34%
6%
12%
25%
31%
13%
29%
9%
13%
40%
3%
11%
22%
6%
9%
28%
8%
9%
29%
3%
18%
43%
50%
42%
57%
28%
37%
64%
58%
54%
36%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(462)
(196)
(265)
(63)
(134)
(190)
(74)
(356)
(65)
16

17. Next President Policies

Should the next president...?
Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
41%
51%
8%
31%
67%
2%
40%
60%
0%
55%
40%
6%
33%
62%
5%
54%
32%
13%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(173)
(95)
(153)
(306)
(159)
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
41%
51%
8%
35%
57%
8%
45%
47%
8%
35%
55%
10%
44%
54%
2%
34%
53%
13%
59%
40%
1%
43%
52%
5%
32%
56%
12%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(196)
(275)
(63)
(134)
(199)
(74)
(365)
(65)
17

18. Democratic Party Representation

These days, do you feel the Democratic party represents you...?
Ideology
Very well
Somewhat well
Not too well
Republicans
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
30%
51%
5%
34%
51%
1%
30%
53%
2%
27%
49%
7%
28%
52%
5%
33%
50%
7%
14%
13%
14%
17%
16%
10%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(173)
(95)
(153)
(306)
(159)
Gender
Very well
Somewhat well
Not too well
Republicans
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
30%
51%
5%
24%
57%
6%
34%
46%
5%
45%
37%
5%
23%
56%
3%
26%
56%
5%
40%
38%
9%
32%
53%
3%
15%
49%
3%
14%
13%
15%
14%
18%
13%
13%
12%
33%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(196)
(275)
(63)
(134)
(199)
(74)
(365)
(65)
18

19. Enthusiasm for Other Candidate

If [First Choice Candidate Name] doesnt get the nomination, how will you feel about voting for [Other Candidate Name] in November?
Ideology
Very enthusiastic
for them
Totals
(Weighted N)
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
White
Black
21%
22%
29%
20%
9%
23%
21%
29%
28%
22%
6%
24%
43%
14%
46%
6%
50%
18%
36%
13%
35%
16%
58%
12%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(465)
(172)
(94)
(150)
(302)
(157)
Gender
Very enthusiastic
for them
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
21%
22%
28%
23%
15%
22%
53%
6%
13%
20%
20%
22%
10%
41%
19%
24%
24%
26%
43%
14%
36%
13%
47%
16%
25%
16%
46%
21%
49%
9%
33%
16%
45%
12%
31%
20%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(465)
(195)
(270)
(63)
(132)
(196)
(74)
(360)
(65)
19

CBS News Battleground Tracker: Virginia, February 2016

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CBS News Battleground Tracker: Virginia, February 2016

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

1193 Registered Voters

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59%

Very strong Ive decided . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%

Very strong Ive decided . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

What big donors want

What regular people

Must agree with you

Okay with some

10. Do you feel each of these candidates is...?

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Defend my faith and religious values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%

12. Regardless of how youre voting, which candidate do you feel...?

Has the most

More likely to vote for them . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

17. As President, do you feel each candidate would ultimately do...?

What big donors want

What regular people

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Support an historic candidacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%

21. Should the next president...?

Generally continue Barack Obamas policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Very well . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30%

Very enthusiastic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%

24. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

25. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?*

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

27. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?

28. Are you male or female?

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

31. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

3. 2016 Primary Turnout

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

4. First Choice Republican Candidate

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

5. First Choice Democratic Candidate

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

6. Republican Candidate Support

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

7. Democratic Candidate Support

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

8. Republican Candidate Attention Donald Trump

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

9. Republican Candidate Attention Ted Cruz

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

10. Republican Candidate Attention Marco Rubio

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

11. Republican Candidate Attention John Kasich

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

12. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Immigration

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

13. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Matters of faith and religion

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

14. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Handling ISIS

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

15. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Economic Issues

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker