Lecture Outlines

Natural Disasters, 7 edition

th

PatrickL.Abbott

NaturalDisasters
andtheHumanPopulation
NaturalDisasters,7thedition,Chapter1

NaturalDisastersin2004and
2005

Morethan280,000peoplekilledbynatural
disastersin2004,almost100,000in2005
2005Pakistanearthquake:88,000peoplekilled
3.3millionlefthomeless
2ndwaveofdeathsfromwinterstorm

2005HurricaneKatrina
2004HurricaneIvanwasdressrehearsal,closemiss
2005HurricaneKatrinawasdirecthitonMississippi,
engulfedmuchofGulfCoast
FailureofMississippiRiverandLakePontchartrain
leveesfloodedpartsofNewOrleansupto20feet

Evidenceofanaturaldisaster?Ocotillo,Ca
2010

BearGrylls??

HumanFatalitiesinNaturalDisasters
Sawtoothshapedcurvecausedbylargestnaturaldisasters
Biggestkillers(inorder):hurricanes,earthquakes,floods,severe
weather,landslides,volcaniceruptions,tornadoesandtsunami
Mostmegakillerdisastersoccurindenselypopulatedbeltthrough
Asia,alongIndianOceannumberoffatalitiesisproportionalto
densityofpopulation
Effectsonsurvivors
Increaseinaltruism

Figure1.4

EconomicLossesfromNaturalDisasters
Destructionanddamagetostructures,lossofproductivity
andwages
Increaseineconomiclossesovertimeisresultofincrease
inhumanpopulationandurbanization
Mostexpensiveeventscausedbystormsandoccurredin
U.S.,EuropeandJapan

NaturalHazards
Hazardexistsevenwheredisastersareinfrequent
Evaluatesiterisk
Mitigationpriortoevent
Engineering,physical,socialandpolitical
plansandactionstoreducedeathand
destructionfromnaturalhazards

Mitigationafterevent
Rebuildingandreinhabitingsamesite
Casehistory:PopocatepetlVolcano,Mexico
Eruptionsin822,1519andbeginning
againin1994
Currently100,000peoplelivingatbase

Figure1.5

Magnitude,Frequency,andReturnPeriod
Inversecorrelationbetweenfrequency(howoftenitoccurs)and
magnitude(howbigitis)ofaprocess
Frequentoccurrencesarelowin
magnitude,rareoccurrencesare
highinmagnitude
Smallscaleactivityiscommon,big
eventsarerare
Largertheevent,longerthereturn
period(recurrenceinterval)
Probabilityestimatesofvarioussize
(10fatality,1000fatality,etc.)
occurrencescanbeconsidered
Costbenefitratiocanbeconsideredin
conjunctionwithreturnperiodofgiven
magnitudeevent

OverviewofHumanPopulationHistory
Difficulttoassessearlyhumanpopulationgrowth
Humanspeciesbeganapproximately160,000years
ago,withafewthousandpeople
Human
populationhas
growntoover6.7
billionpeoplein
2008
Growthrateis
exponential
Figure1.7

SideNote:InterestPaidonMoney:
AnExampleofExponentialGrowth
Visualizeexponentialgrowthintermsofdoublingtime
Numberofyearsforpopulationto
doubleinsize,givenannual
percentagegrowthrate
Doublingtime=
70

%growthrate/year
Exampleofinterestpaidonmoney
Lineargrowth:$1000+$100/year
Exponentialgrowth:$1000+7%/year

Exampleofwaterlilyplantinpond
Doublesinsizeeveryday
Covershalfthepondthedaybeforeit
coversthewholepond

Figure1.9

TheLast10,000YearsofHumanHistory
Flatpopulationgrowthcurveuntil8,000yearsago
Agricultureestablished
Domesticationofanimals
Growthrateincreasedto0.036%/year
By2,000yearsago,population~200millionpeople
Bettershelter,food,watersuppliesfasterpopulationgrowth
Growthrateof0.056%/year
By1750,population
~800millionpeople

Figure1.8

TheLast10,000YearsofHumanHistory

By1750,population~800millionpeople

Publichealthprinciples,causesofdiseaserecognized
Birthratessoared,deathratesdropped

1810:~1billion
1925:~2billion
1960:~3billionInsertfigure1.10here
1974:~4billion
1987:~5billion
1999:~6billion

By2013,projectedpopulation~7billion

Figure1.10

TheHumanPopulationToday
Presentpopulation:(insertnumber)
Growthrate=1.2%/year
Doublingtime=58years

Growthrate=
fertility(birth)ratemortality(death)rate
Humanpopulationgrowsbyabout80million
peopleperyear

FutureWorldPopulation
Demographictransitiontheory:
Mortalityandfertilityratesdeclinefromhightolowlevels
becauseofeconomicandsocialdevelopment

PopulationReferenceBureauestimatesworldpopulation
growthratesaredropping
From1.8%in1990to1.2%in2008
Duetourbanizationandincreasedopportunitiesforwomen

FutureWorldPopulation

Figure1.12

FutureWorldPopulation
BUTpopulationexplosioncontinues
From1950to2000populationgrewfrom2.5billionto6billion
Growthrateof1.2%/yearmeanspopulationof9billionin2050

Considerno.ofbirths/womantopredict2150population
Average1.6children/woman:3.6billion
Average2children/woman:10.8billion
Average2.6children/woman(currentaverage):27billion

DemographicDivide
Wealthycountries:lowbirthrates,longlifeexpectancies
Poorcountries:highbirthrates,shortlifeexpectancies
ExamplesofJapansshrinkingpopulationvs.Nigerias
expandingpopulation
Inserttable1.10

CarryingCapacity
HowmanypeoplecanEarthsupport?
Calculationsofcarryingcapacityvaryconsiderably
Increasingamountsoffoodcanbeproduced
Peoplecanmigratefromareasoffamineorpoverty
tolesscrowdedorwealthierareas
BUTEarths
resourcesare
finite,so
solutionsare
temporary
Figure1.15

CarryingCapacity
ExampleofRapaNui(EasterIsland)
IsolatedPacificislandwithpoorsoilandlittlewater
Settledby2550Polynesiansin5thcentury
Survivedeasilyonchickensand
yams,plentyoffreetime
Developedelaboratecompetition
betweenclanswithmoai(statues)

Civilizationpeakedat1550,with
populationof~7000

Figure1.14

CarryingCapacity
ExampleofRapaNui(EasterIsland)
ReachedbyaDutchshipin1722
Foundabout2,000peoplelivingincaves
Primitivesociety,constantwarfare

RapaNuiscarryingcapacityhadbeendrastically
loweredbysocietysactions:
Transportationofmoaihadrequiredcuttingdowntrees
Erosionofsoilmadeyamsscarce
Lackofcanoesmadefishingdifficultandescape
impossible

EndofChapter1