Professional Documents
Culture Documents
PatrickL.Abbott
NaturalDisasters
andtheHumanPopulation
NaturalDisasters,7thedition,Chapter1
NaturalDisastersin2004and
2005
Morethan280,000peoplekilledbynatural
disastersin2004,almost100,000in2005
2005Pakistanearthquake:88,000peoplekilled
3.3millionlefthomeless
2ndwaveofdeathsfromwinterstorm
2005HurricaneKatrina
2004HurricaneIvanwasdressrehearsal,closemiss
2005HurricaneKatrinawasdirecthitonMississippi,
engulfedmuchofGulfCoast
FailureofMississippiRiverandLakePontchartrain
leveesfloodedpartsofNewOrleansupto20feet
Evidenceofanaturaldisaster?Ocotillo,Ca
2010
BearGrylls??
HumanFatalitiesinNaturalDisasters
Sawtoothshapedcurvecausedbylargestnaturaldisasters
Biggestkillers(inorder):hurricanes,earthquakes,floods,severe
weather,landslides,volcaniceruptions,tornadoesandtsunami
Mostmegakillerdisastersoccurindenselypopulatedbeltthrough
Asia,alongIndianOceannumberoffatalitiesisproportionalto
densityofpopulation
Effectsonsurvivors
Increaseinaltruism
Figure1.4
EconomicLossesfromNaturalDisasters
Destructionanddamagetostructures,lossofproductivity
andwages
Increaseineconomiclossesovertimeisresultofincrease
inhumanpopulationandurbanization
Mostexpensiveeventscausedbystormsandoccurredin
U.S.,EuropeandJapan
NaturalHazards
Hazardexistsevenwheredisastersareinfrequent
Evaluatesiterisk
Mitigationpriortoevent
Engineering,physical,socialandpolitical
plansandactionstoreducedeathand
destructionfromnaturalhazards
Mitigationafterevent
Rebuildingandreinhabitingsamesite
Casehistory:PopocatepetlVolcano,Mexico
Eruptionsin822,1519andbeginning
againin1994
Currently100,000peoplelivingatbase
Figure1.5
Magnitude,Frequency,andReturnPeriod
Inversecorrelationbetweenfrequency(howoftenitoccurs)and
magnitude(howbigitis)ofaprocess
Frequentoccurrencesarelowin
magnitude,rareoccurrencesare
highinmagnitude
Smallscaleactivityiscommon,big
eventsarerare
Largertheevent,longerthereturn
period(recurrenceinterval)
Probabilityestimatesofvarioussize
(10fatality,1000fatality,etc.)
occurrencescanbeconsidered
Costbenefitratiocanbeconsideredin
conjunctionwithreturnperiodofgiven
magnitudeevent
OverviewofHumanPopulationHistory
Difficulttoassessearlyhumanpopulationgrowth
Humanspeciesbeganapproximately160,000years
ago,withafewthousandpeople
Human
populationhas
growntoover6.7
billionpeoplein
2008
Growthrateis
exponential
Figure1.7
SideNote:InterestPaidonMoney:
AnExampleofExponentialGrowth
Visualizeexponentialgrowthintermsofdoublingtime
Numberofyearsforpopulationto
doubleinsize,givenannual
percentagegrowthrate
Doublingtime=
70
%growthrate/year
Exampleofinterestpaidonmoney
Lineargrowth:$1000+$100/year
Exponentialgrowth:$1000+7%/year
Exampleofwaterlilyplantinpond
Doublesinsizeeveryday
Covershalfthepondthedaybeforeit
coversthewholepond
Figure1.9
TheLast10,000YearsofHumanHistory
Flatpopulationgrowthcurveuntil8,000yearsago
Agricultureestablished
Domesticationofanimals
Growthrateincreasedto0.036%/year
By2,000yearsago,population~200millionpeople
Bettershelter,food,watersuppliesfasterpopulationgrowth
Growthrateof0.056%/year
By1750,population
~800millionpeople
Figure1.8
TheLast10,000YearsofHumanHistory
By1750,population~800millionpeople
Publichealthprinciples,causesofdiseaserecognized
Birthratessoared,deathratesdropped
1810:~1billion
1925:~2billion
1960:~3billionInsertfigure1.10here
1974:~4billion
1987:~5billion
1999:~6billion
By2013,projectedpopulation~7billion
Figure1.10
TheHumanPopulationToday
Presentpopulation:(insertnumber)
Growthrate=1.2%/year
Doublingtime=58years
Growthrate=
fertility(birth)ratemortality(death)rate
Humanpopulationgrowsbyabout80million
peopleperyear
FutureWorldPopulation
Demographictransitiontheory:
Mortalityandfertilityratesdeclinefromhightolowlevels
becauseofeconomicandsocialdevelopment
PopulationReferenceBureauestimatesworldpopulation
growthratesaredropping
From1.8%in1990to1.2%in2008
Duetourbanizationandincreasedopportunitiesforwomen
FutureWorldPopulation
Figure1.12
FutureWorldPopulation
BUTpopulationexplosioncontinues
From1950to2000populationgrewfrom2.5billionto6billion
Growthrateof1.2%/yearmeanspopulationof9billionin2050
Considerno.ofbirths/womantopredict2150population
Average1.6children/woman:3.6billion
Average2children/woman:10.8billion
Average2.6children/woman(currentaverage):27billion
DemographicDivide
Wealthycountries:lowbirthrates,longlifeexpectancies
Poorcountries:highbirthrates,shortlifeexpectancies
ExamplesofJapansshrinkingpopulationvs.Nigerias
expandingpopulation
Inserttable1.10
CarryingCapacity
HowmanypeoplecanEarthsupport?
Calculationsofcarryingcapacityvaryconsiderably
Increasingamountsoffoodcanbeproduced
Peoplecanmigratefromareasoffamineorpoverty
tolesscrowdedorwealthierareas
BUTEarths
resourcesare
finite,so
solutionsare
temporary
Figure1.15
CarryingCapacity
ExampleofRapaNui(EasterIsland)
IsolatedPacificislandwithpoorsoilandlittlewater
Settledby2550Polynesiansin5thcentury
Survivedeasilyonchickensand
yams,plentyoffreetime
Developedelaboratecompetition
betweenclanswithmoai(statues)
Civilizationpeakedat1550,with
populationof~7000
Figure1.14
CarryingCapacity
ExampleofRapaNui(EasterIsland)
ReachedbyaDutchshipin1722
Foundabout2,000peoplelivingincaves
Primitivesociety,constantwarfare
RapaNuiscarryingcapacityhadbeendrastically
loweredbysocietysactions:
Transportationofmoaihadrequiredcuttingdowntrees
Erosionofsoilmadeyamsscarce
Lackofcanoesmadefishingdifficultandescape
impossible
EndofChapter1