Professional Documents
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Credit Analysis
REVIEW
This chapter focuses on credit analysis. It is separated into two major sections: liquidity
analysis and solvency analysis. Liquidity refers to the availability of resources to meet shortterm cash requirements. A company's short-term liquidity risk is affected by the timing of
cash inflows and outflows along with its prospects for future performance. Our analysis of
liquidity is aimed at companies' operating activities, their ability to generate profits from the
sale of goods and services, and working capital requirements and measures. This chapter
describes several financial statement analysis tools to assess short-term liquidity risk for a
company. We begin with a discussion of the importance of liquidity and its link to working
capital. We explain and interpret useful ratios of both working capital and a company's
operating cycle for assessing liquidity. We also discuss potential adjustments to these
analysis tools and the underlying financial statement numbers. What-if analysis of changes
in a company's conditions or strategies concludes this section.
The second part of this chapter considers solvency analysis. Solvency is an important factor
in our analysis of a company's financial statements. Solvency refers to a company's longrun financial viability and its ability to cover long-term obligations. All business activities of
a companyfinancing, investing, and operatingaffect a company's solvency. One of the
most important components of solvency analysis is the composition of a company's capital
structure. Capital structure refers to a company's sources of financing and its economic
attributes. This chapter describes capital structure and explains its importance to solvency
analysis. Since solvency depends on success in operating activities, the chapter examines
earnings and its ability to cover important and necessary company expenditures.
Specifically, this chapter describes various tools of solvency analysis, including leverage
measures, analytical accounting adjustments, capital structure analysis, and earningscoverage measures. We demonstrate these analysis tools with data from financial
statements. We also discuss the relation between risk and return inherent in a company's
capital structure, and its implications for financial statement analysis.
10-1
OUTLINE
Section 1: Liquidity
What-If Analysis
10-2
Earnings Coverage
Relation of Earnings to Fixed Charges
Times Interest Earned Analysis
Relation of Cash Flow to Fixed Charges
Earnings Coverage of Preferred Dividends
Interpreting Earnings Coverage Measures
10-3
ANALYSIS OBJECTIVES
Analyze operating cycle and turnover measures of liquidity and their interpretation.
Explain financial leverage and its implications for company performance and
analysis.
Describe capital structure risk and return and its relevance to financial statement
analysis.
10-4
QUESTIONS
1. Liquidity is an indicator of an entity's ability to meet its current obligations. An entity in a
weak short-term liquidity position will have difficulty in meeting short-term obligations.
This has implications for any current and potential stakeholders of a company. For
example, lack of liquidity would affect users analysis of financial statements in the
following ways:
Equity investor: In this case, the company likely is unable to avail itself of favorable
discounts and to take advantage of profitable business opportunities. It could even mean
loss of control and eventual partial or total loss of capital investment.
Creditors: In this case, delay in collection of interest and principal due would be
expected and there is a possibility of the partial or total loss of the amounts due them.
2. A major limitation in using working capital (in dollars) as an analysis measure is its
failure to meaningfully relate it to other measure for interpretive purposes. That is,
working capital is much more meaningful when related to other amounts, such as current
liabilities or total assets. In addition, the importance attached to working capital by
various users provides a strong incentive for an entity (especially the ones in a weak
financial position) to stretch the definition of its components. For example, some
managers may expand the definition of what constitutes a current asset and a current
liability to better present their current position in the most favorable light. Moreover,
there are several opportunities for managers to stretch these definitions. For this reason,
the analyst must use judgment in evaluating managements classification of items
included in working capitaland apply adjustments when necessary.
3. In classification of accounts as current or noncurrent, we look to both the intentions of
management and the normal practice for the industry (beyond the longer of the
operating cycle or one-year rule). In the case of fixed assets, there is the possibility of
their inclusion in current assets under one condition. The condition is that management
intends to sell these fixed assets and management has a definite contractual
commitment from a buyer to purchase them at a specific price within the following year
(or operating cycle, if longer).
4. Installment receivables derived from sales in the regular course of business are deemed
to be collectible within the operating cycle of a company. Therefore, such installment
receivables are to be included in current assets.
5. Inventories are not always reported as current assets. Specifically, inventory amounts in
excess of current requirements should be excluded from current assets. Current
requirements include quantities to be used within one-year or the normal operating
cycle, whichever period is longer. Business at times builds up its inventory in excess of
current requirement to hedge against an increase in price or in anticipation of a strike.
Such excess inventories beyond the requirements of one year should be classified as
noncurrent.
6. Prepaid expenses represent advance payments for services and supplies that would
otherwise require the current outlay of funds during the succeeding one-year or a longer
operating cycle.
10-5
7. Banks usually reserve the right not to renew the whole or part of a loan at their option
when they sign a revolving loan agreement. The fact that a bank agrees informally to
renew short-term notes does not make them noncurrent. The possibility that the
company under analysis included such notes under long-term liabilities should be
carefully assessed (and potentially reclassified if our analysis suggests otherwise).
8. Some of these industry characteristics, such as the absence of any distinction between
current and noncurrent on the balance sheet in the real estate industry, can indeed
require special treatment. However, even in such cases, analysts should be careful to
consider whether these "special" characteristics change the relation existing between
current obligations and the liquid funds available (or reasonably expected to become
available) to meet them. Our analysis should adjust the classifications of any items not
meeting our assessment of the current and noncurrent criteria.
9.
Identical working capital does not imply identical liquidity. The absolute amount of
working capital has significance only when related to other variables such as sales, total
assets, etc. The absolute amount only has, at best, a limited value for intercompany
comparisons. A better gauge of liquidity when focusing on working capital is to relate its
amount to either or both of current assets and current liabilities (or sales, assets, etc.).
10. The current ratio is the ratio of current assets to current liabilities. It is a static measure
of resources available at a given point in time to meet current obligations. The reasons
for its widespread use include:
It measures the degree to which current assets cover current liabilities.
It measures the margin of safety available to allow for possible shrinkage in the value
of current assets.
It measures the margin of safety available to meet the uncertainties and the random
shocks to which the flows of funds in a company are subject.
11. Cash inflows and cash outflows are not perfectly predictable. For example, in the case of
a business downturn, sales can decline more rapidly than do outlays for purchases and
expenses. The amount of cash held is in the nature of a precautionary reserve, which is
intended to take care of short-term surprises in cash inflows and outflows.
12. There is a relation between inventories and sales. Specifically, as sales increase
(decrease), the inventory level typically increases (decreases). However, inventories are
a direct function of sales only in rare cases. Methods of inventory management exist,
and experience suggests that inventory increments vary not in proportion to demand
(sales) but rather with measure approximating the square root of demand.
13. Managements major objectives in determining the amounts invested in receivables and
inventories include the promotion of sales, improved profitability, and the efficient
utilization of assets.
14. The current ratio is a static measure. The value of the current ratio as a measure of
liquidity is limited for the following reasons:
Future liquidity depends on prospective cash flows and the current ratio alone does
not indicate what these future cash flows will be.
There is no direct or established relationship between balances of working capital
items and the pattern which future cash flows are likely to assume.
10-6
Managerial policies directed at optimizing the levels of receivables and inventories are
oriented primarily toward the efficient and profitable utilization of assets and only
secondarily at liquidity considerations.
15. The limitations to which the current ratio is subject should be recognized and its use
should be restricted to the type of analytical task it is capable of serving. Specifically, the
current ratio can help assess the adequacy of current assets to discharge current
liabilities. This implies that any excess (called working capital) is a liquid surplus
available to meet imbalances in the flow of funds, shrinkage in value, and other
contingencies.
16. Cash-based ratios of liquidity typically refer to the ratio of cash (including cash
equivalents) to total current assets or to total current liabilities. The choice of deflator
depends on the purposes of analysis. (i) The higher the ratio of cash to total current
assets the more liquid the current asset group is. This means that this portion of the total
current assets is subject only to a minimal danger of loss in value in case of liquidation
and that there is practically no waiting period for conversion of these assets into usable
cash. (ii) The ratio of cash to total current liabilities measures how much cash and cash
equivalents are available to immediately pay current obligations. This is a severe test
that ignores the revolving nature of current liabilities. It supplements the cash ratio to
total current assets in that it measures cash availability from a somewhat different point
of view.
17. An important measure of the quality of current assets such as receivables and
inventories is their turnover. The faster the turnovercollections in case of receivables
and sales in case of inventoriesthe smaller the likelihood of loss on ultimate realization
of these assets.
18. The average accounts receivable turnover measures in effect the speed of their
collection during the period. The higher the turnover figure, the faster the collections are,
on average.
19. The collection period (or days' sales in accounts receivable) measures the number of
days' sales uncollected. It can be compared to a company's credit terms to evaluate the
quality of its collection activities.
20. Either one or all of the following are possible reasons for an increase in the collection
period:
A relatively poorer collection job.
Difficulty in obtaining prompt payment for various reasons from customers in spite of
diligent collection efforts.
Customers in financial difficulty, which in turn may imply a poor job by the credit
department.
Change of credit policies or sales terms in a desire to increase sales.
Excessive delinquency of one or a few substantial customers.
10-7
21. (a) If the inventory level is inadequate, the sales volume may decline to below the level of
sales otherwise attainable. A loss of potential customers can also occur. (b) Excessive
inventories, however, expose the company to expenses such as storage costs,
insurance, and taxes as well as to risks of loss of value through obsolescence and
physical deterioration. Excessive inventories also tie up funds that can be used more
profitably elsewhere.
22. The LIFO method of inventory valuation in times of increasing costs can render both the
inventory turnover ratio as well as the current ratio practically meaningless. However,
there is information regarding the LIFO reserve that is reported in financial statements.
Use of the LIFO reserve enables the analyst to adjust an unrealistically low LIFO
inventory value to a more meaningful inventory amount. Still, in intercompany
comparative analysis, even if two companies use LIFO cost methods for their inventory
valuations, the ratios based on such inventory figures may not be comparable because
their respective LIFO inventory pools (bases) may have been acquired in years of
significantly different price levels.
23. The composition of current liabilities is important because not all current liabilities
represent equally urgent and forceful calls for payment. Some claims, such as for taxes
and wages, must be paid promptly regardless of current financial difficulties. Others,
such as trade bills and loans, usually do not represent equally urgent calls for payment.
24. Changes in the current ratio over time do not automatically imply changes in liquidity or
operating results. In a prosperous year, growing liabilities for taxes can result in a
lowering of the current ratio. Moreover, in times of business expansion, working capital
requirements can increase with a resulting contraction of the current ratioso-called
"prosperity squeeze." Conversely, during a business contraction, current liabilities may
be paid off while there is a concurrent (involuntary) accumulation of inventories and
uncollected receivables causing the ratio to rise. Finally, advances in inventory practices
(such as just-in-time) can lower the current ratio.
25. "Window dressing" refers to the adjustment of year-end account balances of current
assets and liabilities to show a more favorable current ratio than is otherwise warranted.
This can be accomplished, for example, by temporarily stepping up the efforts for
collection, by temporarily recalling advances and loans to officers, and by reducing
inventory to below the normal level and use the proceeds from these steps to pay off
current liabilities. The analyst should go beyond year-end reported amounts and try to
obtain as many interim readings of the current ratio as possible. Even if the year-end
current ratio is very strong, interim ratios may reveal that the company is dangerously
close to insolvency. More generally, our analysis must always be aware of the possibility
of window dressing of both current and noncurrent accounts.
26. The rule of thumb regarding the current ratio is 2:1 a value below that level suggests
serious liquidity risk. Also, the rule of thumb suggests that the higher the current ratio be
above the 2:1 level, the better. The following points, however, should be kept in mind so
as not to expose our analysis to undue risks of errors in inferences:
A current ratio much higher than 2 to 1, while implying a superior coverage of current
liabilities, can signal a wasteful accumulation of liquid resources.
It is the quality of the current assets and the nature of the current liabilities that are
more significant in interpreting the current rationot simply the level itself.
10-8
The need of a company for working capital varies with industry conditions as well as
with the length of its own net trade cycle.
27. In an assessment of the overall liquidity of a companys current assets, the trend of sales
is an important factor. Since it takes sales to convert inventory into receivables and/or
cash, an uptrend in sales indicates that the conversion of inventories into more liquid
assets will be easier to achieve than when sales remain constant. Declining sales, on the
other hand, will retard the conversion of inventories into cash and, consequently, impair
a companys liquidity.
28. In addition to the tools of analysis of short-term liquidity that lend themselves to
quantification, there are important qualitative considerations that bear on short-term
liquidity. These can be usefully characterized as depending on the financial flexibility of
a company. Financial flexibility is the ability of a company to take steps to counter
unexpected interruptions in the flow of funds. This refers to the ability to borrow from a
variety of sources, to raise equity capital, to sell and redeploy assets, and to adjust the
level and direction of operations to meet changing circumstances. The capacity to
borrow depends on numerous factors and is subject to rapid change. It depends on
profitability, stability, relative size, industry position, asset composition and capital
structure. It will depend, moreover, on such external factors as credit market conditions
and trends. The capacity to borrow is important as a source of funds in a time of need
and is also important when a company must roll over its short-term debt. Prearranged
financing or open lines of credit are more reliable sources of funds in time of need than
is potential financing. Other factors which bear on the assessment of the financial
flexibility of a company are the ratings of its commercial paper, bonds and preferred
stock, restrictions on the sale of its assets, the degree of discretion with its expenses as
well as the ability to respond quickly to changing conditions such as strikes, shrinking
demand, and cessation of supply sources.
The SEC requires a "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and
Results of Operations" (MD&A). This requirement includes a discussion of liquidity
factorsincluding known trends, demands, commitments or uncertainties likely to have
a material impact on the company's ability to generate adequate amounts of cash. If a
material deficiency in liquidity is identified, management must discuss the course of
action it has taken or proposes to take to remedy the deficiency. In addition, internal and
external sources of liquidity as well as any material unused sources of liquid assets
must be identified and described.
29. The importance of projecting the effects of changes in conditions and policies on the
cash resources of a company is to allow for proper planning and control. For example, if
management decides to ease the credit terms to its customers, knowing the impact of
the new policy on cash resources will help it make a more informed decision. It may seek
improved terms from suppliers or make arrangements to obtain a loan.
30. Key elements in evaluating long-term solvency are:
Analysis of the capital structure of the firm.
Assessing different risks for different types of assets.
Measuring earnings, earning power, and earnings trend.
Estimating earnings coverage of fixed charges.
Assessing the asset coverage of loans.
Measuring protection afforded by loan covenants and collateral agreements.
10-9
31. Analysis of capital structure is important because the financial stability of a company
and the risk of insolvency depend on the financing sources as well as on the type of
assets it holds and the relative magnitude of such asset categories. Specifically, there
are essential differences between debt and equity, which are the two major sources of
funds. Equity capital has no guaranteed return that must be paid out and there is no
timetable for repayment of the capital investment. From the viewpoint of a company,
equity capital is permanent and can be counted on to remain invested even in times of
adversity. Therefore, the company can confidently invest equity funds in long-term
assets and expose them to the greatest risks. On the other hand, debts are expected to
be paid at certain specified times regardless of a company's financial condition. To the
investor in common stock, the existence of debt contains a risk of loss of investment.
The creditors would want as large a capital base as is possible as a cushion that will
shield them against losses that can result from adversity. Therefore, it is important for
the financial analyst to review carefully all the elements of the capital structure.
32. Financial leverage is the result of borrowing and incurring fixed obligations for interest
and principal payments. The owners of a successful business that requires funds may
not want to dilute their ownership of the business by issuing additional equity. Instead,
they can "trade on the equity" by borrowing the funds required, using their equity capital
as a borrowing base. Financial leverage is advantageous when the rate of return on total
assets exceeds the net after-tax interest cost paid on debt. An additional advantage
provided by financial leverage is that interest expense is tax deductible while dividend
payments are not.
33. Leverage is a two-edged sword. In good times, net income benefit from leverage. In a
recession or when unexpected adverse events occur, net income can be harmed by
leverage. Therefore, the use of leverage is acceptable to the financial markets only up to
some undefined level. Ninety percent is higher than that acceptable level. Specifically,
at 90 percent debt to total capital, future financing flexibility would be extremely limited,
lenders would not loan money, and equity financing may cost more than the potential
returns on incremental investments. Also, a 90 percent debt level would make net
earnings extremely volatile, with a sizable increase in fixed charges. The incremental
cost of borrowing, including refunding of maturing issues, increases with the level of
borrowing. A 90 percent debt level could pose the probability of default and receivership
in the event that something goes wrong. The financial risk of such a company would be
much too high for either stockholders or bondholders.
34. In an analysis of deferred income taxes, the analyst must recognize that under normal
circumstances the deferred tax liabilities will reverse (become payable) only when a
firm shrinks in size. Shrinkage in firm size is usually accompanied with losses instead of
with taxable income. In such circumstances, the drawing down of the deferred tax
account is more likely to involve credits to tax loss carryforwards or carrybacks, rather
than to the cash account. To the extent that a future reversal is only a remote possibility,
the deferred credit should be viewed as a source of long-term funding and be classifiable
as part of equity. On the other hand, if the possibility of a drawing down of the deferred
tax account in the foreseeable future is high, then the account, or a portion of it, is more
in the nature of a long-term liability.
10-10
35. The accounting requirements for the capitalization of leases are not rigorous and definite
enough to insure that all leases that represent, in effect, installment purchases of assets
are capitalized. Consequently, the analyst must evaluate leases that have not been
capitalized with a view to including them among debt obligations. Leases which cover
most (say 75-80 percent) of the useful life of an asset can generally be considered the
equivalent of debt financing. (See Chapter 3 for additional analysis and discussion.)
36. Off-balance-sheet financing are attempts by management to structure transactions in
such a way as to exclude debt (and related assets) from the balance sheet. This is
usually accomplished by emphasizing legal (accounting) form over substance. Examples
of such transactions are take or pay contracts, certain sales of receivables, and
inventory repurchase agreements.
37. Pension accounting recognizes that if the fair value of pension assets falls short of the
accumulated pension benefit obligation, a liability for pensions exists. However, this
liability normally does not take into consideration the projected benefit obligation that
recognizes an estimate for future pay increases. When pension plans base their benefits
on future pay formulas, the analysts, who judge such understatement as serious and
who can estimate it, may want to adjust the pension liability for analysis purposes.
38. The preferred method of presenting the financial statements of a parent and its
subsidiary is in consolidated format. This is also the preferred method from an analysis
point of view. However, separate financial statements of the consolidated entities are
necessary in some cases, such as when the utilization of assets of a subsidiary (such as
an insurance company or a bank) is not subject to the full discretion of the parent.
Information on unconsolidated subsidiaries is also important when bondholders of such
subsidiaries must look only to a subsidiarys assets as security. Moreover, bondholders
of the parent company (particularly holding companies) may derive a significant portion
of their fixed charge coverage from the dividends of the unconsolidated subsidiaries.
Yet, in the event of the subsidiary's bankruptcy, the parent bondholders may be in a
junior position to the bondholders of the subsidiary.
39. a. Generally, the minority interest is shown among liabilities in consolidated financial
statements. However, the minority interest differs from debt in that it has neither
mandatory dividend payment requirements nor principal repayment requirements.
Therefore, for the purpose of capital structure analysis, it may be classified as equity
rather than as a liability.
b. The purpose of appropriating retained earnings is to "set aside" a certain portion of
retained earnings to prevent them from serving as a basis for the declaration of
dividends. There exists no claim by an outsider to such an appropriation until the
contingency materializes. Therefore, unless the reason for the amount reserved is
certain to occur, such appropriations should be considered a part of equity capital.
c. A guarantee for product performance is the result of a definite contract with the buyer
that commits the entity to correct product defects. Therefore, it is a potential liability
and should be classified as such.
d. Convertible debt is generally classified among liabilities. However, if the terms of
conversion and the market price of the common stock are such that it is most likely
to be converted into common stock, it should be considered as equity for the
purpose of capital structure analysis.
10-11
10-12
43. The difference between the book value of equity capital and its market value is usually
due to a number of factors. One of these is the effect of price-level changes. These, in
turn, are caused by at least two factors: change in the purchasing power of money and
change in price due to economic factors such as the law of supply and demand.
Therefore, with fluctuating prices, it is unlikely that historical cost will correspond to
market value. Accounting methods in use can also significantly affect the book values of
assets. For example, a particular depreciation method often is adopted for tax reasons
rather than to measure the loss of value of an asset due to use or obsolescence. The
analyst could potentially adjust for this distortion of current value by valuing the equity
at market value. For actively traded securities this would not be too difficult. However,
the stock market too is often subject to substantial overvaluation and undervaluation
depending on the degree of speculative sentiment. Hence, in most cases, equity capital
will not be adjusted to marketinstead, the focus will be on valuing assets and liabilities,
with equity as a residual value.
44. Since liabilities and equity reveal the financing sources of a company, and the asset side
reveals the investment of these funds, we can generally establish direct relations
between asset groups and selected items of capital structure. This does not, of course,
imply that resources provided by certain liabilities or equity should be directly
associated with the acquisition of certain assets. Still, it is valid to assume that the types
of assets a company employs should determine to some extent the sources of resources
used to finance them. Therefore, to help assess the risk exposure of a given capital
structure, the analysis of asset distribution is one important dimension. As an example, if
a company acquired long-term assets by means of short-term borrowings, the analyst
would conclude that this particular method of financing involves a considerable degree
of risk (and cost).
45. The earnings to fixed charges ratio measures directly the relation between debt-related
and other fixed charges and the earnings available to meet these charges. It is an
evaluation of the ability of a company to meet its fixed charges out of current earnings.
Earnings coverage ratios are superior to other tools, such as debt-to-equity ratios, which
do not focus on the availability of funds. This is because earnings coverage ratios
directly measure the availability of funds for payment of fixed charges. Fixed charges are
mainly a direct result of the incurrence of debt. An inability to pay their associated
principal and interest payments represents the most serious risk consequence of debt.
46. Identifying the items to include in "fixed charges" depends on the purpose of the
analysis. Fixed charges can be defined narrowly to include only interest and interest
equivalents or broadly to include all outlays required under contractual obligations
specifically:
(a) Interest and interest equivalents:
i. Interest on long-term debt (including amortization of any discounts and
premiums).
ii. Interest element included in long-term lease rentals.
iii. Capitalized interest.
(b) Other outlays under contractual obligations:
i. Interest on income bonds (assuming profitable operationsimplicit assumption
in such borrowings).
ii. Required deposits to sinking funds and principal payments under serial bond
obligations.
iii. Principal repayments included in lease obligations.
10-13
10-14
51. The advantages of convertible debt are that the company is able to potentially enlarge its
equity base (and/or at a potentially lower cost) than it might otherwise be able to with
pure equity financing. Also, it might be able to sell equity shares at a price in excess of
the current market price and to obtain, in the interim, a lower interest cost because of the
conversion feature of the debt. The disadvantages are that a subsequent decline in the
market price of the stock can postpone conversion substantially and indefinitely. This
would leave the company with a debt burden that it was not prepared to shoulder over
the long term. Consequently, what may have been conceived of as temporary financing
can, in fact, become long-term debt financing.
52. (a) Long-term indentures span such an extended period of time that they are subject to
many uncertainties and imponderables. Consequently, long-term creditors often
insist on the maintenance of certain ratios at specified levels and/or controls over
specific managerial actions and policies (such as dividends and capital
expenditures). However, no restrictive covenant or other contractual arrangement
can prevent operating losses, which present the most serious risk to long-term
creditors.
(b) 1. Maintenance of a minimum degree of short-term liquidity.
2. Prevention of the dissipation of equity capital by retirement, refunding, or the
payment of excessive dividends.
3. Preservation of equity capital for the safety of creditors.
4. Insure the ability of creditors to protect their interests in a deteriorating situation.
53.
The major reason why debt securities are rated while equity securities are not rest in
the fact that there is a far greater uniformity of approach and homogeneity of
analytical measures used in the evaluation of credit worthiness than there is in the
evaluation of equity securities. This increased agreement on what is being measured
in credit risk analysis has resulted in widespread acceptance of and reliance on
published credit ratings in many sectors of the analyst community.
54. In rating an industrial bond issue, rating agencies focus on the issuing company's asset
protection, financial resources, earning power, management, and the specific provisions
of the debt security. Asset protection is concerned with measuring the degree to which a
company's debt is covered by its assets. Financial resources encompass, in particular,
such liquid resources as cash and other working capital items. Future earning power is a
factor of great importance in the rating of debt securities because the level and the
quality of future earnings determine importantly a company's ability to meet its
obligations. Earnings power is generally a more reliable source of security than is asset
protection. Management abilities, philosophy, depth, and experience always loom
importantly in any final rating judgment. Through interviews, field trips and other
analyses the raters probe into management's goals, the planning process as well as
strategies in such areas as research and development, promotion, new product planning
and acquisitions. The specific provisions of the debt security are usually spelled out in
the bond indenture.
10-15
55. The analyst who can effectively execute financial statement analysis can also improve on
the published bond ratings. Indeed, effective financial statement analysis is possibly
even more valuable in the valuation of debt securities than in the case of equity
securities. Bond ratings cover a wide range of characteristics and they present
opportunities for those who can better identify key differences within a rating
classification. Moreover, rating changes generally lag the market. This lag presents
additional opportunities to an analyst who with superior skill and alertness can identify
important changes before they become generally recognized.
56. Companies hire bond-rating agencies to rate their debt because these ratings are an
externally generated, independent signal of the company's creditworthiness and quality.
Investors would rely less on ratings if they were produced in-house because of
management's incentives to report high quality and of management self-interest. In
short, they act as independent signals of debt quality.
10-16
EXERCISES
Exercise 10-1 (20 minutes)
Current Ratio
1.* No change
2. No change
3. Increase
4. Decrease
5. Decrease
6. Decrease
7. Increase
8. Decrease
9. Increase
10. No change
Quick Ratio
No change
No change
Increase
No change
Decrease
Decrease
Increase
Decrease
Increase
Decrease
Working Capital
No change
No change
Increase
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
No change
No change
Increase
No change
* Assumes a sufficient amount is provided for in the Allowance for Bad Debts.
(a) (b)
NE NE
(c)
D
Journal Entry
COGS 500
R.E. 500
2.
NE
Accts Recble
Sales
3.
NE
4.
NE
5.
NE NE
COGS
Inventory
6.
NE NE
R.E. 500
COGS 500
Explanation
Cost of goods sold increases by 500;
average inventory increases by 250; ratio
(c) decreases.
Denominator will increase by half the
amount of the numerator causing the (a)
ratio to increase. Denominator of ratio (b)
will increase causing the ratio to decrease.
There is no effect on the components of
ratio (c).
The numerator in ratio (a) won't change
and the denominator will decrease thus
increasing the ratio. Because ratio (a) will
increase, ratio (b) will decrease as the
average accounts receivable turnover
increases. Ratio (c) is unaffected.
Ratio (a) will increase due to the
decrease in the denominator. Ratio (b) will
decrease due to the increase in the
denominator, which is due to the increase
in ratio (a). Ratio (c) is unaffected.
Only ratio (c) is affected. The numerator
increases while the denominator
decreases.
Neither ratio (a) nor (b) are affected. The
average inventory will decrease by 50% of
the decrease in the numerator in ratio (c)
due to the averaging effect, thus
increasing the ratio.
10-17
(a) (b)
NE NE
(c)
NE
Journal Entry
Allow for Bad Debts
Accts Recble
Explanation
Since we use the net A.R. in
computation of ratio, there is no effect.
2.
NE NE
COGS
R.E.
3.
NE NE
COGS
Inventory
4.
NE NE
Loss
Inventory
5.
NE NE
R.E.
COGS
6.
NE
Sales
Accts Recble
These procedures are normal business transactions that cannot usually be considered
manipulative in character. They may become manipulative when they have no sound business
justification and are undertaken solely to influence the measures used by outside analysts.
10-18
Exercise 10-4concluded
b. The analyst could, if all underlying evidence and documents were available, detect
each of these methods. However, sufficient evidence, such as invoices and the
books of original entry, will most likely not be available for inspection. Moreover,
these methods may not be recognizable through the usual analysis of financial
statements of the company. If sufficient evidence were available, the following are
techniques that may be used to detect the methods described in a.
1. The analyst could determine the company's usual payment policies, and compare
them with those employed at year-end. S/he could look at the terms of the
liabilities, to see if they were paid at the most beneficial timein other words, if
any economic benefit was derived by paying them earlier than due or when
normally paid. S/he could inspect the payments in the first month of the following
year, to see if liabilities were paid disproportionately to year-end, taking into
account due dates and normal requirements. An unusually low inventory at
year-end might also indicate failure to purchase merchandise at year-end in an
effort to improve the quick ratio.
2. The analyst could analyze the timing of investments and the use to which they
were put. If s/he sees large capital infusions at year-end, and that these
investments were represented by idle cash, or by marketable securities which are
not related to operations, and where there is little probability of such funds being
required for operations in the near future, the reason might be window dressing.
3. Contracts and invoices might be examined to see when they were entered into
and when they were recorded.
4. The procedures for investigation of excessive borrowing at year-end are the same
as those for excessive investments of equity funds (2. above). Also, the contracts
should be studied to determine if they are bona fide loans.
5. The purchase journal and cash disbursements journal should be examined to
compare expenses incurred towards the end of the year with expenses at the
beginning of the following year, and the reasons for large differences.
6. To determine if the books are being kept open too long, the analyst would study
such documents as the underlying invoices and canceled checks to determine
their actual dates, and to compare this with the dates recorded. S/he might also
confirm material accounts with customers as of the year-end.
10-19
B*
C*
D*
1.
NE
NE
I/I=D
I/I=D
2.
D/NE=D
D/NE=D
D/D=I
D/D=I
3.
I/NE=I
I/NE=I
I/I=D
I/I=D
4.
NE/I=D
NE/I=D
I/I=D
I/I=D
5.
NE
NE
D/NE=D
NE
6.
NE
NE
NE
I/NE=I
7.
NE
NE
I/I=D
I/I=D
8.
NE
NE
D/D=I
D/D=I
9.
D/I=D
D/I=D
NE
NE
10.
I/NE=I
NE
NE
NE
10-20
PROBLEMS
Problem 10-1 (60 minutes)
a. Short-term liquidity ratios for Campbell Soup:
1. [36] / [45] = $1,665.5 / $1,298.1 = 1.28
2. ($80.7 [31] + $22.5 [32] + $624.5 [33]) / $1,298.1 [45] = 0.56
3. $6,205.8 [13] / [($624.5 [33] + $564.1)/2] = 10.44
4. $4,258.2 [14] / [($819.8 [34] + $816.0)/2] = 5.21
5. $624.5 [33] / ($6,205.8 / 360) = 36.23
6. $819.8 / ($4,258.2 / 360) = 69.31
7. 36.23 + 69.31 = 105.54
8. ($80.7 + $22.5) / $1,665.5 = 0.062
9. ($80.7 + $22.5) / $1,298.1 = 0.0795
10.
Ending inventory
+Cost of goods sold.
- Beginning inventory..
- Depreciation.
=Purchases.
$ 819.8
[34]
4,258.2
[14]
816.0 (given)
184.1 [187]
$4,077.9
10-21
Problem 10-1concluded
c. Current assets using FIFO = $1,665.5 [36] + $84.6 [153] = $1,750.1
COGS (FIFO) = COGS (LIFO) + LIFO reserve
= $4,258.2 + [$84.6 - ($904 - $816)] = $4,254.8
1. $1,750.1 / $1,298.1 = 1.35
4. $4,254.8 / [($904.4 + $904)/2] = 4.71
5. $624.5 [33] / ($6,205.8 [13] / 360) = 36.23
6. $904.4 / ($4,258.2 / 360) = 76.46
7. 36.23 + 76.46 = 112.69
d. Disregarding, for purposes of this analysis, the prepaid expenses and similar
unsubstantial items entering the computation of the current ratio, we are left with the
four major elements that comprise this ratiothose are cash, accounts receivable,
inventories, and current liabilities. If we define liquidity as the ability to balance
required cash outflows with adequate inflows, including an allowance for unexpected
interruptions of inflows or increases in outflows, we must ask: Does the relation of
these four elements at a given point in time:
1. Measure and predict the pattern of future fund flows?
2. Measure the adequacy of future fund inflows in relation to outflows?
Unfortunately, the answer to both of these questions is primarily no. The current
ratio is a static concept of what resources are available at a given moment in time to
meet the obligations at that moment. The existing reservoir of net funds does not
have a logical or causal relation to the future funds that will flow through it. Yet it is
the future flows that are the subject of our greatest interest in the assessment of
liquidity. These flows depend importantly on elements not included in the ratio itself,
such as sales, profits, and changes in business conditions. There are at least three
conclusions that can be drawn:
1. Liquidity depends to some extent on cash or cash equivalents balances, but to a
much more significant extent on prospective cash flows.
2. There is no direct or established relation between balances of working capital
items and the pattern that future cash flows are likely to assume.
3. Managerial policies directed at optimizing the levels of receivables and
inventories are mainly directed towards efficient and profitable asset utilization
and only secondarily towards liquidity.
These conclusions obviously limit the value of the current ratio as an index of
liquidity. Moreover, given the static nature of this ratio and the fact that it consists of
items that affect liquidity in different ways, we must exercise caution in using this
ratio as a measure of liquidity.
10-22
Problem 10-1concluded
e. Accounts receivable turnover rates or collection periods can be compared to
industry averages or to the credit terms granted by the company. When the
collection period is compared with the terms of sale allowed by the company, the
degree to which customers are paying on time can be assessed. In assessing the
quality of receivables, the analyst should remember that a significant conversion of
receivables into cash, except for their use as collateral for borrowing, cannot be
achieved without a cutback in sales volume. The sales policy aspect of the collection
period evaluation must also be kept in mind. A company may be willing to accept
slow-paying customers who provide business that is, on an overall basis, profitable;
that is, the profit on sale compensates for the extra use by the customer of the
company funds. This circumstance may modify the analyst's conclusions regarding
the quality of the receivables but not those regarding their liquidity.
The current ratio computation views its current asset components as sources of
funds that can, as a means of last resort, be used to pay off the current liabilities.
Viewed this way, the inventory turnover ratios give us a measure of the quality as
well as of the liquidity the inventory component of the current assets. The quality of
inventory is a measure of the company's ability to use it and dispose of it without
loss. When this is envisaged under conditions of forced liquidation, then recovery of
cost is the objective. In the normal course of business, the inventory should, of
course, be sold at a profit. Viewed from this point of view, the normal profit margin
realized by the company assumes importance because the funds that will be
obtained, and that would theoretically be available for payment of current liabilities,
will include the profit in addition to the recovery of cost. In both cases, costs of sales
will reduce net proceeds. In practice, a going concern cannot use its investment in
inventory for the payment of current liabilities because any drastic reduction in
normal inventory levels will surely cut into the sales volume. The turnover ratio is a
gauge of liquidity in that it conveys a measure of the speed with which inventory can
be converted into cash. In this connection, a useful additional measure is the
conversion period of inventories.
10-23
Cash Collections
Accounts receivable, Jan. 1,Year 2
Sales*
$ 90,000
472,500
562,500
(945)
(72,188)
489,367
531,367
Cash Disbursements
Accounts payable, Jan 1., Year 2
Purchases [c]
Less: Acct. pay., Dec. 31, Year 2 [d]
Accrued taxes paid
Other expensesCash [e]
Cash available, Dec. 31, Year 2
78,000
356,760
(132,511)
302,249
10,800
116,550
429,599
$ 101,768
(175,000)
(30,000)
$(103,232)
[a]
[b]
[c]
Year 2 Cost of goods sold.....
Ending inventory..
Goods available for sale....
Beginning inventory
Purchases..
$305,760
90,000 (given)
$395,760
39,000
$356,760
[d]
[e]
Year 1
Sales
$ 450,000
Cost of goods sold.
(312,000)
Depreciation..
(15,000)
Net income.
(12,000)
$ 111,000
Other expenses
Other expenses (Year 2) = $111,000 x 1.05 = $116,550
10-24
$150,000
880,000
(165,000)
$ 80,000
865,000
945,000
543,000
(15,000)
20,000
258,500
806,500
$138,500
50,000
$ 88,500
Notes:
[a] 360 days / ($800,000/$150,000) = 67.5 days
Applied to Year 2 sales: $880,000 x (67.5/360) = $165,000
[b]
Year 2 Cost of sales ($520,000 x 110%)
$572,000
Ending inventory (given)
150,000
Goods available for sale
722,000
Beginning inventory
65,000
Purchases..
$657,000
[c]
[d]
10-25
Problem 10-3concluded
a.
$ 220,000
165,000
55,000
88,500
$ 33,500
$ 293,000
165,000
128,000
88,500
$ 39,500
10-26
$109,500
244,000
134,500
88,500
$ 46,000
Top Corporation
Cash Forecast
For Year Ended December 31, Year 6
Cash balance (1/1/Year 6)..
$ 35,000
Cash receipts
Accounts receivable, Jan. 1.....
$ 75,000
Sales.
412,500
(103,125)
Cash receipts.
384,375
$419,375
Cash disbursements
Accounts payable, Jan. 1 . $ 65,000
Purchases [1] 331,750
Accounts payable, Dec. 31 (122,000)
274,750
2,500
Accrued taxes
9,000
110,250
396,500
$ 22,875
50,000
Required to borrow.
$ 27,125
Notes:
[1]
Beginning inventory.
+ Purchases (plug)
Goods available for sale..
- Ending inventory.
Cost of sales ($412,500 x .70)
[2]
Gross profit (30% of sales)
Depreciation ($25,000 - $21,500)..
Net income (excludes other expenses)..
Other expenses (plug).
Net income (given)...
10-27
$ 32,000
331,750
363,750
75,000
$288,750
$123,750
3,500
120,250
110,250
$ 10,000
10-28
Year 5
Year 6
1.5
1.6
46
48
3. Inventory turnover
5: $99,000/[($32,000+$38,000)/2].. 2.83
6: $120,000/[($38,000+$56,000)/2]
2.55
168
79
76
Year 5
$ 99,000
38,000
137,000
32,000
$105,000
Year 6
$120,000
56,000
176,000
38,000
$138,000
0.19
0.12
b. Most of the liquidity measures of ZETA do not reveal any significant changes from
Year 5 to Year 6. However, there is some deterioration in the inventory turnover. This
deterioration is even more evident in the days' sales in inventory measures.
Moreover, the liquidity index also suggests that the liquidity position of ZETA has
deteriorated from Year 5 to Year 6. Also notice that because of a lower level of
operating cash flows, the cash flow ratio shows a significant decline. Still, due to the
short time span of this analysis, one would want to examine another year or two (say,
Years 3 and 4) to see if these changes reflect a longer-term trend in liquidity.
10-29
0.08 ($505/$6,485)
0.72 ($16,730/$23,215)
2.58 ($16,730/$6,485)
10.52 ($5,310/$505)
3.84 ($6,485/1,691)
b. Dells balance sheet is strong, with little long-term debt and significant equity
capital. Solvency risk is low, given the low debt level in relation to equity, and
cash from operations is significantly greater than total long-term liabilities.
10-30
Denominator
179.4
111.6
20.8
--20.8
121.9
(5.6)
306.2
0.0
142.7
619.5
111.6
-20.8
751.9
10-31
Denominator
--121.9
20.8
142.7
Problem 10-8concluded
b. We would compute the total debt to total capitalization as follows:
$805.8(a) [46] + $28.5(b) [177] + $235.1(c) [176]
= 38.0%
$1,069.4(d) + $1,691.8(e) [54] + $56.3 (f) [178]
(a) Long-term debt
(b) Other liabilities
(c) Deferred income taxes (assuming 100% considered as liabilities)
(d) a + b + c
(e) Total equity
(f) Minority interests
10-32
(a)
(b)
(h)
(d)
(f)
(g)
Numerator
Pre-tax income...............................................
Interest expensed ..........................................
Interest incurred ............................................
Interest part of operating rental expense....
Amortization of prior capitalized interest ...
Undistrib. inc. of <50% owned affiliates ......
$4,600
400
-120
60
(300)
$4,880
Denominator
--440
120
--$560
Denominator
$4,600
$ --
600
(300)
200
(300)
(900)
800
700
$5,400
700
---------440
120
$560
120
$6,220
10-33
Problem 10-10
a. 1. Ratio of Earnings to Fixed Charges
Numerator
$5,800
1,100
100
400
100
(400)
600
$7,700
Denominator
$
-1,220
100
400
---$1,720
Denominator
--
-100
--------400
1,220
$1,720
10-34
$6,200
1,100
-100
400
80
(800)
600
$7,680
Denominator
--1,220
100
400
--____
$1,720
$6,200
1,200
100
600
(800)
600
(160)
120
7,860
--1,100
400
$9,360
Denominator
------
---1,220
100
400
$1,720
10-35
$ 6,000
14,000
$20,000
10-36
Equity
$20,000,000
4,000,000
4,000,000
24,000,000
24,000,000
(2,200,000)
(1,000,000)
21,800,000
23,000,000
(8,720,000)
(9,200,000)
Net income
$13,080,000
$13,800,000
2,000,000
2,400,000
$6.54
$5.75
10-37
10-38
Problem 10-14concluded
c. 1. Two points: (i) For fiscal years beginning before 12/16/93, marketable securities
were valued at the lower of cost or market under SFAS 12 (for marketable equity
securities) and ARB 43 (for marketable debt securities). During this period the
market value of securities were sometimes substantially higher than shown on
the balance sheet, requiring analytical adjustment. Under current practice, all
marketable securities (except held-to-maturity debt securities) are valued at
market. Hence, only held-to-maturity debt securities are potentially subject to
market adjustment. (ii) An analyst must realize that the longer the elapsed time
since the balance sheet date the greater the likelihood that market values for
marketable securities have changed. Hence, for comparative analysis spanning
several years, adjustments to market may be necessary for investment securities.
2. Deferred income taxes are created when a company uses different accounting
methods for income tax and financial reporting such that so-called timing
differences in income occur. One school of thought argues that deferred taxes
should be recognized as a liability. The presumption is that timing differences will
reverse in the future and the taxes will become payable or that changes in the tax
law could accelerate payment of such taxes. Opponents argue that deferred
taxes should be included in shareholders' equity. The presumption here is that
timing differences are unlikely to reverse and therefore the balance in deferred
taxes will continue to grow and not become payable. This means that the longterm debt ratio of a company would be adversely affected if deferred taxes are
considered long-term debt (first viewpoint); however, this ratio would be
favorably impacted if such taxes are considered as part of shareholders' equity
(second viewpoint).
10-39
4. Year 5
$16,000 a + $4,000 b + $2,000 c + $16 d + $1,000 e + $1,000 f *
= 3.42
$5,000 g + $2,000 c + $16 d
* Loss per income statement (additional 300 added back in SCF represents dividends
received).
Year 6
$21,000 a + $7,420b + $2,500 c + $20 d + $1,200 e - $1,400 f * *
g
= 2.61
10-40
Problem 10-15concluded
5. Cash from operations* + income tax expense (except deferred taxes)+ fixed charges**
Fixed charges**
* Depreciation added back already includes amortization of interest previously capitalized.
**As computed in (4) above.
10-41
10-42
Problem 10-16concluded
c. Hold or Sell Analysis of BRT Bonds by Clayton Asset Management
Currently, the BRT bonds are trading as BB-rated bonds. Prior to the merger,
BRTs ratios approximated a weak BB credit. After the merger, all the ratios
declined below values representative of a BB credit rating except the ratio of debt
to total assets, which maintained a BB credit quality. Several other factors may
cause further deterioration in the financial strength of BRT. First, a large portion
of assets is now intangible, which introduces the potential for overstating current
values (or, at the very least, it increases uncertainty). The value of the intangibles
is best measured by their ability to generate revenues. Recent results suggest
that ability is suspect. Second, BRT is not generating sufficient income to cover
interest expenses. This lack of sufficient income makes it difficult to provide for
capital expenditures to maintain and build its current business. Third, with the
weakening financial structure of BRT, the company has further reduced its
flexibility to compete in a highly competitive environment.
Additional contributing factors include managements focus on aggressive
expansion at the expense of bondholders interests and the competitive
pressures created by government regulation of the industry. The cumulative
effect of declining financial ratios, potentially overvalued assets, reduced ability
to meet capital expenditure needs, and reduced financial flexibility to compete in
a highly competitive industry, have a negative impact on BRTs creditworthiness.
It is recommended that Clayton sell the BRT bonds in anticipation of a widening
spread between BRT bonds and U.S. Treasuries. This widening spread relative to
Treasuries will cause the bonds to underperform as the market adjusts the values
of the bonds in line with comparable lower-credit-quality bonds.
(CFA adapted)
10-43
10-44
CASES
Case 10-1 (90 minutes)
a.
FAX Corporation
Forecasted Statement of Cash Receipts and Payments
For Year Ended December 31, Year 2
Beginning cash balance
Add: Cash Receipts
Beginning accounts receivable.
+Sales for Year 2 [1].
- Ending accounts receivable [2]...
Cash collections.
Total cash inflows...
Deduct: Cash disbursements
Beginning accounts payable
+Purchases for Year 2 [3]...
-Ending accounts payable [4].
Payments to creditors..
Payments of cash expenses [5].
Payment of notes payable
Payment of long-term debt..
Total cash disbursements.
Net cash flow
Less minimum cash balance
Cash borrowings expected
$ 30,000
$ 52,000
1,104,000
(276,000)
880,000
910,000
60,000
600,000
(75,000)
585,000
315,920
20,000
25,000
945,920
$(35,920)
(20,000)
$(55,920)
Notes
[1] Sales for Year 2 = Sales for Year 1 x 115% = $960,000 x 1.15 = $1,104,000
[2] Ending A.R. = Average daily sales x Collection period
= $1,104,000 x 90/360 = $276,000
[3] Purchases (Year 2) = COGS + Ending inventory - Beginning inventory
COGS (Year 2) = COGS (Year 1) x 110% = $550,000 x 1.1 = $605,000
Average Inventory = COGS / Average inventory turnover
= $605,000 / 5.5 = 110,000
Ending inventory = (Average inventory x 2) - (Beginning Inventory)
= $110,000 x 2 - $112,500 = $107,500
Purchases (Year 2) = $605,000 + $107,500 - $112,500 = $600,000
10-45
Case 10-1concluded
Notescontinued
[4] Ending A.P. = Purchases (Year 2) x (Beg. A.P. / Year 1 Purchases)
= $600,000 x ($60,000 / $480,000) = $75,000
[5] Cash expenses (Year 2) = Selling and Admin. expenses + Taxes paid
S&A (Year 2) = S&A (Year 1) x 110% = $160,000 x 1.1 = $176,000
Income tax expense for Year 2= [Sales - (COGS + Depreciation + S&A)] x .48
= [$1,104,000 - ($605,000 + ($30,000 x 1.05) + $176,000] x .48
= $139,920
Cash expenses (Year 2) = $176,000 + $139,920 = $315,920
b. From the analysis in part a, it is predicted that FAX will need to borrow $55,920 in
Year 2.
10-46
(20,000)
$ (35,898)
Notes
[1] Year 2 Sales = Year 1 Sales x 115% = $960,000 x 1.15 = $1,104,000
[2] Ending A.R. = Average daily sales x Collection Period
= ($1,104,000/360) x 90 = $276,000
[3] Year 2 Purchases = COGS + Ending inventory - Beginning inventory
Year 2 COGS = Year 1 COGS x 110% = $550,000 x 1.1 = $605,000
Average inventory = COGS / Average inventory turnover
= $605,000 / 6 = $100,833.33
Ending inventory = (Average inventory x 2) - (Beginning Inventory)
= ($100,833.33 x 2) - $112,000 = $89,667
Year 2 Purchases = $605,000 + $89,667 - $112,000 = $582,667
[4] Ending A.P. = Year 2 Purchases x (Beg. A.P. / Year 1 Purchases)
= $582,667 x ($60,000/$450,000) = $77,689
[5] Year 2 cash expenses:
Year 1 selling and admin expense x 110% = $160,000 x 1.10 = $176,000
Year 2 income tax expense = [Sales - (COGS + Depr. + Selling & admin exp.)] x .48
= [$1,104,000 - ($605,000 + ($30,000 x 105%) + $176,000)] x .48 = $139,920
Cash expenses = $176,000 + $139,920 = $315,920
b. From the analysis in part a, it is predicted that FAX will need to borrow $35,898 in
Year 2.
10-47
Year 4
Working capital
Current assets
Current liabilities
Working capital
342,000
177,800
164,200
198,000
64,800
133,200
2.
Current ratio
1.92
3.06
3.
Acid-test ratio
[($12,000 + $183,000) / $177,800]
[($15,000 + $80,000) / $64,800]
1.10
12.81
28.10
7.76
46.39
Debt-to-equity ratio
(120 + 30 + 147.8) / (110 + 94.2)
(73 + 14.4 + 50.4) / (110 + 60.2)
1.46
7.25
1.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
1.47
17.86
20.16
10.88
33.09
0.81
5.93
b.
Index-number trend series
Year 5
Year 4 Year 3
Sales 160.4
119.0
100.0
158.2
100.0
81.8
100.0
143.2
84.8
100.0
54.0
100.0
10-48
Case 10-3concluded
c. A loan should not be granted, as it appears that the overall financial position of
the company is deteriorating. The following points should be noted:
1. The current ratio went down from 3.06 to 1.92.
2. A similar reduction occurred in the acid-test ratio, indicating the company is in
a weaker position.
3. Accounts receivable turnover decreased while the collection period increased.
This indicates a greater investment in receivables although the collection
period of 28 days is still within the firm's terms of net 30 days.
4. The inventory turnover deteriorated from 10.88 to 7.76 and the days to sell
inventory increased to 46 days from 33 days. This means that the firm is
carrying a larger investment in inventories, which ties up its badly needed
quick assets. In addition, the risk of obsolete inventory is increased.
5. Debt-to-equity ratio increased drastically. Both the short-term and long-term
debt were affected. The firm will probably experience difficulty in meeting its
current maturities (see current and acid-test ratio declines) because the firm is
financing its increased working capital needs with debt instead of with equity.
6. Although sales increased dramatically, the firm incurred a greater proportional
increase in its costs. In Year 4, the firm had a lower gross profit and a lower
net income despite the increase in sales. In Year 5, gross profit increased, but
at a slower rate than the increase in sales. This indicates that the firm is
experiencing a cost/profit squeeze.
Before any loans are made to the company, management must address the
issues above and an improved financial condition must be demonstrated.
10-49
10-50
Case 10-4concluded
5. Sources of supply. Are these businesses vulnerable to the cost of production
inputs? Or is the market position of Altria such that it can easily pass on higher
raw material costs? Industry market structure often has a direct impact on
sources of supply. From a competitive standpoint, the company that controls its
factors of production is in a superior position.
6. Degree of regulation. Tobacco has faced some regulatory hurdles in the past
(especially the recent past), as has food and beverage to a lesser degree. What
does the future hold in this area? The analyst should be concerned with the
direction of regulation and its effect on future profitability.
7. Labor. Are these businesses heavily unionized? What is the status of
labor-management relations? When the labor market is "tight," this is an
important consideration in nonunionized companies.
8. Accounting. Do these businesses have any unique accounting practices that
warrant special attention? As stressed throughout the text, an analyst must
become familiar with industry accounting practices before proceeding with a
company analysis. To assess whether a company is liberal or conservative in
applying GAAP industry practices should be examined.
b. 1a. Ratios for Altria for Year 9 before the acquisition of Kraft are:
Pretax interest coverage = ($4,820+$500)/$500 = 10.64
LT debt as % of capitalization = $3,883/($3,883+$9,931) = 28.11%
CF as % of total debt = ($2,820+$750+$100-$125)/($3,883+$1,100) = 71.14%
1b. Ratios for Altria for Year 9 pro forma for the acquisition of Kraft are:
Pretax interest coverage = ($4,420+$1,600)/$1,600 = 3.76
LT debt as % of capitalization = $15,778/($15,778+$9,675) = 61.99%
CF as % of total debt = ($2,564+$1,235+$390-$125)/($15,778+$1,783) = 23.14%
2. Relating these ratios to the median ratios for the various bond rating
categories places Altria in the position shown below:
Before Kraft
Ratio
Implied Rating
Pretax interest coverage .................................
10.64
AA
LT debt as % of cap. ........................................
28.11%
A
CF as % of total debt .......................................
71.14%
A+/AAAfter Kraft
Ratio
Implied Rating
Pretax interest coverage .................................
3.76
BBB
LT debt as % of cap. ........................................
61.99%
B
CF as % of total debt .......................................
23.14%
BB
Recommendation: These ratios suggest that Altria bonds have deteriorated
from a strong A rating to a BB rating, based on the median ratios for the
various bond categories. Given that Altria is in relatively stable businesses
(food and tobacco) that tend to be much less cyclical than the economy
overall, an argument could be made that its bonds should be rated as a strong
BB or even a BBB.
10-51
Year 7
Year 9
52.0%
46.2%
Moderate deterioration, but nothing serious. The large increase in the goodwill
account is evidently a factor.
LT debt to total capitalization ...............................
64.0%
62.6%
2.31
1.83
Modest improvement.
Debt to common equity ........................................
3.33
3.40
Slight improvement.
Liquidity
Year 7
68
12.0
Year 9
90
4.7
5.8%
9.3%
The greater working capital requirements have evidently forced ABEX to rely
more heavily on short-term debt.
Earning Power
Pretax interest coverage .......................................
Operating cash flow to long-term debt ...............
Year 7
Year 9
1.80
20.4%
1.84
22.1%
Pretax interest coverage is similar between Year 7 and Year 9, although it was
significantly higher in Year 8 (2.54). Higher operating margins and improved cash
flow helped in supporting the higher debt burden. This is especially evident in the
operating cash flow to long-term debt ratio.
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Case 10-5concluded
b. Among the more qualitative considerations that should be reviewed in assessing
the risk of downgrade are:
(1) Economic cyclicality: The petrochemical business is likely to be more cyclical
than the pipeline business, which is regulated and generally more of a cost
pass-through operation.
(2) Growth prospects: Petrochemicals may have greater growth prospects than
the pipeline business, but that growth is likely to be more erratic, due to
economic cyclicality.
(3) Competition: The lack of regulation and the commodity nature of most of its
products makes the petrochemical business generally more competitive than
the pipeline business.
(4) Sources of supply: Both the petrochemical and the pipeline businesses have
to deal with the problem of securing sufficient supplies of raw material. Again,
the petrochemical business is probably more prone to disruption than the
pipeline business.
Other possible considerations include:
(5) Management expertise.
(6) Environmental concerns.
(7) Debtor problems.
(8) Quality of earnings.
(9) Barriers to entry.
(10) Benefits of diversification.
c. One might conclude from the qualitative considerations in part b that the shift
toward petrochemicals makes ABEX more vulnerable to the vagaries of the
economic cycle. If so, this will lead to a more volatile earnings stream going
forward. To this extent, there is some pressure for a rating downgrade.
Looking at the ratio analysis in part a, one might conclude that there is relatively
little deterioration in credit quality. The modest deterioration in asset protection
seems to be offset by higher cash flow margins, which allows the company to
support the higher debt burden. However, the greater reliance on short-term debt
to finance the increased working capital requirements is somewhat troublesome.
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