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TrumpandTV

JanvanLohuizen,Voter/ConsumerResearch
LucasThompson,AdAstraInsights

TheTrump
phenomenon

HowcouldTrumphappen?
Explanationsrangefromdemandforanoutsidertoeconomicdisplacement
ofthelowermiddleclass.
Thereisasimplerexplanation:heisthemostvisibleRepublicanbyfar,other
candidatesstruggletogetcoverage,Trumpgetsthevastbulkofit.

Trumpgetsthe
largestshareof
coveragebyfar

BasedondatafromInternetArchive's TelevisionNewsArchive,Trumpgetsabout6timeson
themajornetworksforroughlyevery1timeCruzorKasichdoes.Trumpsexposureis3
timesgreaterthanCruzorKasichcombined.Trumpwasgetting50%oftheexposurewhen
thereweremorethanadozencandidates andithasincreasedsince.

CNNledtheway,
butalloftelevision
mediahasbeenin
lockstepcovering
Trumpsinceat
leastsummer2015.

Theherdeffect:its
notjustTrump.
NotetheCarson
bubbleinOctober/
Novemberoflast
year.

Themedia
explanation,we
covertheleaderin
thepollsis
nonsense.Aspike
inmediacoverage
precededTrumps
riseinthepollsbya
fullmonth.
6

Theother
explanation:Trump
coveragedraws
eyeballsandsells
ads

ItmaynotbegoodforAmerica,butitsdamngoodforCBS,Moonvessaidata
MorganStanleyconferenceinSanFrancisco, accordingtoThe HollywoodReporter.
Fortune(03/01/2016):Moonves,whoreferredtothepresidentialelectioncycleasa
circus,wentontonotehissurpriseattheturnofeventsthathavepropelled
TrumpfromalaughingstocktotheRepublicanleaderintermsofpresidential
delegatesheadingintoSuperTuesday.Themoneysrollinginandthisis
fun, THR quotedMoonvesassaying.Iveneverseenanythinglikethis,andthis
goingtobeaverygoodyearforus.Sorry.Itsaterriblethingtosay.But,bringit
on,Donald.Keepgoing.

1. TV,theoldmedium,remainsthemostpowerful.Trumpsdigitalcampaign
consistsofhiscellphoneandTwitteraccount,andlargelyspeakstothealready
converted.Hisdataoutfitandonlinefundraisingeffortsareminimal.Advanced
digitalanddataeffortsgetleftinthedustifanothercandidatecompletely
dominatestelevision.

Whatcanwelearn:

2. NotallTViscreatedequal.TheestimatedvalueofthecoverageTrumpisgetting
is$2Billion.Nofundraisingandadvertisingeffortcanmatchthis:$100Million
soundslikealotbutitisntinthisenvironment.
3. Earnedmediausedtomeanfiguringouthowtobenewsworthy.Nowyouneed
tobeinfotaining.TVnewsisnotanewsindustryitisaninfotainment
industrydrivenbyadsales.
4. TherealmiracleisthatTrumpisntdoingbetter thanheis,givenhis
overwhelmingearnedmediaadvantage.

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