CRUZ & KASICH RUN STRONGER AGAINST CLINTON THAN TRUMP

TRUMP GOP CANDIDACY COULD FLIP MISSISSIPPI FROM RED TO BLUE

If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination, Mississippi and its six
electoral votes (for the first time in a long time) could be in play. Statewide, Trump
only leads Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton by a narrow 46%-43% margin.
Furthermore, a strong showing by a third party candidate makes the race a 39%-39%
statistical tie.
Clinton crushes Trump among black voters (93%-3%) and leads 47%-40% among
women. She also holds on to 85% of Democrats and pulls 11% of GOP voters
(including 15% of white Republican women).
Meanwhile, the two other Republican candidates Ted Cruz & John Kasich are
holding comfortable leads over Clinton and if nominated both are well positioned to
win Mississippi. Statewide, Cruz leads Clinton 51%-40% and Kasich is ahead by an
even larger 52%-37% margin.
While Clinton holds her base with African-American voters, both Cruz and Kasich run
about 10-points ahead of Trump among Republicans and about 5-points stronger
among Independents. Most significantly, Cruz and Kasich bring Republican women
back into the fold and as a result both run ahead of Clinton among all women, as
well as holding double-digit advantages over her among men.
If Mississippi becomes a battleground state, it is safe to say that there could be a
large shift in the national Electoral College map.
1

STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION

QUESTION: Do you recognize the name ________?
(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?
RECOGNIZE
FAVORABLE

RECOGNIZE
UNFAVORABLE

RECOGNIZE
NEUTRAL

DON'T
RECOGNIZE

Ted Cruz

37%

31%

29%

3%

Hillary Clinton

37%

45%

17%

1%

Donald Trump

33%

44%

22%

1%

John Kasich

30%

19%

43%

8%

QUESTION: If the 2016 general election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if
the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican?

STATE
TRUMP
CLINTON
UNDECIDED

46%
43%
11%

SEX
MEN WOMEN
52%
39%
9%

40%
47%
13%

RACE
WHITE BLACK
66%
20%
14%

3%
93%
4%

PARTY ID
DEMS REPS

INDS

8%
85%
7%

49%
37%
14%

77%
11%
12%

QUESTION: If the 2016 general election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if
the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Ted Cruz, the Republican?

STATE
CRUZ
CLINTON
UNDECIDED

51%
40%
9%

SEX
MEN WOMEN
56%
37%
7%

46%
44%
10%

RACE
WHITE BLACK
73%
17%
10%

4%
90%
6%

PARTY ID
DEMS REPS

INDS

10%
84%
6%

53%
35%
12%

85%
5%
10%

QUESTION: If the 2016 general election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if
the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and John Kasich, the Republican?

STATE
KASICH
CLINTON
UNDECIDED

52%
37%
11%

SEX
MEN WOMEN
56%
35%
9%

49%
38%
13%

RACE
WHITE BLACK
74%
13%
13%

5%
88%
7%

PARTY ID
DEMS REPS

INDS

13%
80%
7%

54%
33%
13%

84%
3%
13%

QUESTION: If the 2016 general election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if
the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican or would you
vote for a third party candidate?

STATE
TRUMP
CLINTON
THIRD PARTY
UNDECIDED

39%
39%
13%
9%

SEX
MEN WOMEN
46%
33%
15%
6%

33%
44%
11%
12%

RACE
WHITE BLACK
57%
17%
17%
9%

2%
84%
6%
8%

PARTY ID
DEMS REPS

INDS

5%
81%
7%
7%

43%
30%
24%
3%

66%
9%
11%
14%

DEMOGRAPHICS
PARTY IDENTIFICATION:
Democrat
Republican
Independent or Other

219 (35%)
255 (41%)
151 (24%)

AGE:

18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Refused

82 (13%)
180 (29%)
200 (32%)
161 (26%)
2

RACE:

White/Caucasian
Black/African American
Other/Refused

411 (66%)
194 (31%)
20 (3%)

SEX:

Male
Female

305 (49%)
320 (51%)

REGION:

1st Congressional District

2nd Congressional District
3rd Congressional District
4th Congressional District

155 (25%)
150 (24%)
159 (25%)
161 (26%)

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville,
Florida from March 28 through March 30, 2016. A total of 625 registered
Mississippi voters were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed on land-lines were selected by the random variation of the last
four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in
order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Those interviewed on cell
phones were selected from a list of working cell phone numbers. Quotas were
assigned to reflect voter registration by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is
no more than 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent
probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were
surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or
racial grouping.