2014 CMOST Presentation

07/01/2015
Sensitivity Analysis, Assisted History

Matching, Optimization, & and
Uncertainty Analysis Using CMOST
What this course is

An overview of CMOST functionality
Details and examples of how to use CMOST
for:
Sensitivity Analysis
History Matching
Optimization
Uncertainty Assessment
07/01/2015
What this course is not

A treatise on optimization theory & methods
A course on the math behind CMOST
An in-depth discourse on applied history
matching and optimization
We can provide some guidance based on
our experience but we do not claim to be
experts in the application area
Agenda
CMOST overview
CMOST functionality and Tutorials
History Matching
CMOST functionality and Tutorials
Optimization
07/01/2015
Overview
What is CMOST?
CMOST is CMG software that works in conjunction
with CMG reservoir simulators to perform the
following tasks:
Better understanding of a simulation model
Identify important parameters
History Matching
Calibrate simulation model with field data
Obtain multiple history-matched models
Optimization
Improve NPV, Recovery,
Reduce cost
Uncertainty Analysis
Quantify uncertainty
Understand and reduce risk
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07/01/2015
Typical Workflow for a Brown Field

Reservoir model
Sensitivity analysis
History matching
Matched model
Parameter
Sensitivities
Parameter
Histograms
Optimization
Optimal operating
conditions
Field history file
Forecast model
Optimal model
Uncertainty
assessment
Uncertainty
quantification
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CMOST View of Simulation Models
Parameters
x1, x2, , xn
Simulation Model
y1=f1(x1, x2, , xn)
y2=f1(x1, x2, , xn)
ym=f1(x1, x2, , xn)
Objective Functions
y1, y2, , yn
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CMOST Process
Experimental
Design
& Optimization
Algorithms
Select
combination of
parameter values
Substitute
parameter values
into simulation
dataset
Analyze results
Objective
Functions &
Proxy Analysis
Parameterization
Run simulation
9
CMOST User Interface
07/01/2015
How Input Data is Organized
Define what data to be extracted from simulation

(Plots and Formulas)
Define how the simulation model is

parameterized
(Inputs)
Define objective functions to be calculated

(Outputs)
General Settings
07/01/2015
General Properties
All input files are entered on the general
properties page:
Base Dataset (required)
Master Dataset (required)
Results template files
Measured Data
Field History Files
Log Files
Fundamental Data
Fundamental data defines which 2D curves of simulation
results need to be viewed
Original Time Series
User-defined Time Series
Custom formula based 2D plots

X-axis: time
Property vs. Distance Series
2D plots similar to Results Graph

X-axis: time
X-axis: Distance
Fluid Contact Depth Series
Depth of Fluid Contact (based on fluid saturation) vs. Time
07/01/2015
Parameterization
Parameterization
Parameters are variables in the simulation
model that will be adjusted when creating new
datasets
- E.g. Porosity, permeability, etc.
To determine the location in the dataset to
substitute values, a master dataset must be
created (.cmm)
A master dataset is almost identical to a normal
simulation dataset except CMOST keywords
have been added to identify where a parameter
should be added
- Acts as a template for creating new datasets
07/01/2015
Master Dataset
Master Dataset
A master dataset can be created in multiple
ways:
CMOST Editor
Builder
Text editor (Notepad, Textpad, etc.)
07/01/2015
Parameterization of Simulation Model (Builder)
List of
Parameters
Select
Dataset
Section
Select
Parameter from
Section
Export Master Dataset (Template
file)
Parameterization of Simulation Model (Text)

Dataset Template
Complementary to Builder
Create CMOST parameters
Better syntax highlighting
Highlight CMOST parameters

Fold no-need-to-see sections
Easy navigation
Different sections of the dataset

Navigate CMOST parameters
Handle include files
Create/extract include files

View include files
Parameterize include files
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07/01/2015
Master Dataset Syntax

Original Dataset:
PORCON0.20
Master Dataset:
PORCON<cmost>this[0.20]=Porosity</cmost>
Simulator
Keywords
CMOST
Start
No Spaces in
CMOST Portion
Variable
Name
Original
(Default)
Value in
Dataset
CMOST
End
Variable Names
Case Sensitive

Formulas can also be used with 1 or more variables:
PORCON<cmost>0.20*PorosityMultiplier</cmost>
Simulator
Keywords
CMOST
Start
Formula
CMOST
End
Default value
optional
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07/01/2015

Values in regions of the reservoir can be modified using
MOD simulation keywords
PORCON0.20
MOD
1:52:81:10*<cmost>this[1]=PorosityMultiplier1</cmost>
6:102:81:10*<cmost>this[1]=PorosityMultiplier2</cmost>
Block Ranges
I:IJ:JK:K
Parameter Definition
Continuous parameter
Lower and upper limit define the sampling range
used by study engines
Discrete parameter
Real, Integer, and Text
Each discrete text value also requires a
numerical value
Formula
Value based off of other parameters values
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07/01/2015
Dependent Parameters Using Formula

Syntax highlighting
Shows what variables are available to be
used to create formulas
Test and check the formula anytime
Hard Constraints
Criteria that must be satisfied for a dataset
to be created
Used to eliminate unrealistic datasets
E.g. Horizontal permeability should be
greater than vertical permeability
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07/01/2015
Pre-Simulation Commands
Passes dataset to separate application
before submitting to simulator
Run Builder Silently
Run GOCAD Command Silently
Run User Defined
Can be used to create new geostatistical
realizations, recalculate formulas in Builder,
recalculate rel. perm. curves, etc.
Coupling with Geological Software

Simulation model
H Pair
Geological model
Simulation model
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07/01/2015
Objective Functions
Objective Functions
An Objective Function (OF) is something (an
expression or a single quantity) for which
you wish to achieve some goal
Usually this goal is to achieve a minimum or
maximum value
In the case of History Matching, one
usually wishes to minimize an error
between field data and simulation
In the case of Optimization, one usually
wishes to maximize something like NPV
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07/01/2015
Objective Functions
Basic Simulation Results

Values directly taken from simulation results
with no modification
History match error
Percentage relative error
Perfect match: 0%
Net Present Value
Simplified NPV calculation
Can be used to construct user-defined
objective functions which utilize simulation
results discounted by time as variables
Objective Functions
Characteristic Date Times

Specific Dates
Date where maximum or minimum value is
found
Date when value surpasses a specified criteria
Advanced Objective Functions
User defined objective function based on
formula or code (jscript or python)
Soft Constraints
Re-evaluates objective functions based on
simulation results
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07/01/2015
What are Dynamic Date Times

Characteristic date times, within certain time
series range, that meet certain criteria
Examples:
First time oil rate is higher than 100 bbl/d;
Last time SOR is bigger or equal to 6;
First time oil rate is higher than 100 bbl/d , and
SOR is smaller than 4
Why Need Dynamic Date Times

Fixed date time (e.g. simulation stop time, or
2014-8-15) is fixed for all jobs. Objective function
are calculated on fixed date times for all jobs.
In some cases, we want to get information on date
time that some specified condition are meet (e.g.
oil rate>100). However, these times are not the
same for all simulation jobs.
Thus, they are dynamic.
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07/01/2015
Dynamic Date Times: Maximize Peak NPV
Peak NPV
Dynamic Date Times: Plateau

Optimization
Plateau period
Oil produced at plateau
Average oil rate at plateau
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07/01/2015
Characteristic Date Times Page

Start & Stop Time
To name certain
data time
Data times that

meet certain
criteria
Define Dynamic Date Time

Criteria
Criteria
Time Series
User defined time series
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07/01/2015
Characteristic Time Durations

Defined in Basic Simulation Result Page,
then can be used as objective functions.
User-defined Objective Functions

Use Excel spreadsheet
Map CMOST parameter values to cells
Map simulation results to cells
Use Jscript or Python code

Use executable provided by user (e.g.
MATLAB)
Preview calculation result using base case
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07/01/2015
Use Excel Spreadsheet

After each simulation is done:
CMOST write Parameter and simulation results
to Excel cells;
Excel calculate objective function using formula
or VBA code;
then CMOST read value back into CMOST, and
use it the objective function value.
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07/01/2015
Sensitivity Analysis Goals

Determine which parameters have an effect
on results
E.g. I expect that rock compressibility is
between values A and B. Does this
uncertainty impact my results?
Determine how much of an effect
parameters have on results
E.g. If permeability is increased by 50mD,
how much will cumulative oil increase?
Sensitivity Analysis Process

Select parameters to analyze
E.g. porosity
Select range of values to analyze
E.g. between 20-30% porosity
Select results (Objective Functions) to
analyze
E.g. Cumulative Oil
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07/01/2015
Sensitivity Analysis Methodology

One Parameter at a Time (OPAAT)
Each parameter is analyzed independently
while remaining parameters are set to their
reference value
Response Surface Methodology
Multiple parameters are adjusted together
then results are analyzed by fitting a
response surface (Polynomial equation) to
results

This method analyzes each parameter
independently
While analyzing one parameter, the method
freezes the other parameters at their reference
values (Median or Default)
This measures the effect of each parameter on
the objective function while removing the effects
of the other parameters.
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07/01/2015

Benefits
Simple to use
Results easy to understand
Results not complicated by effects of other
parameters
Drawbacks
Results are focused around the reference
values
Results can change dramatically if
reference values change
Configure OPAAT Engine

Select reference
values to be used
Objective
Function
Non-monotonic
variables require many
levels of parameter
values to be tested
Parameter
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07/01/2015
Porosity = 0.2
CumOil = 33004
bbl
Porosity = 0.25
(reference value)
CumOil = 40416
bbl
Porosity = 0.3
CumOil = 44176
bbl
Note: Min and max objective function values do

not always correspond with Min and Max
parameter values
Check cross plots to verify
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07/01/2015
Length of bar gives the

maximum change in the
objective function over the
parameter range
Response Surface Method (RSM)

Correlation between
response and
parameters
NPV = f(x1, x2, ,
xn)
The response surface
is a proxy for the
reservoir simulator that
allows fast estimation
of the response
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07/01/2015
Multiple Parameters values are changed

simultaneously
The combination of parameter values that are
chosen are based off of an experimental
design
Response surface (polynomial equation) is fit to
simulation results
Linear
Linear + Quadratic
Linear + Quadratic + Interaction terms
Response Surface Proxy Models

Linear Model
y a0 a1 x1 a2 x2 ak xk
Linear + Quadratic Model
k
j 1
j 1
y a0 a j x j a jj x 2j
Linear + Quadratic + Interaction
k
j 1
j 1
y a0 a j x j a jj x 2j aij xi x j
i j j 2
Statistically insignificant terms are automatically removed

Model type is automatically chosen but can be changed if necessary
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07/01/2015
SA Using RSM Engine
Handles problematic
simulation runs
Specify desired
accuracy, the engine
will create and run
experiments as
needed.
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07/01/2015

For comparing effect between different
parameters, parameter ranges are
normalized between -1 and 1
In the resulting tornado plot, 2*Coefficient of
the normalized polynomial relation is given
Represents average change going from
min to max parameter value when looking
at linear effects
Similar to bar length from OPAAT method
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07/01/2015
Increasing PERMH_L1
(permeability) from
2625mD to 4375mD
results in an increase in
Cumulative Oil of 12,461
STB on average

If a parameters has a non-linear relation with
the objective functions, a quadratic term may
also be given (x2)
If modifying 2 parameters at the same time has
an effect stronger than the sum of their
individual linear or quadratic effects, a cross
term may be given (x*y)
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07/01/2015
Quadratic and Linear Effect Table

X-axis: Parameter
Y-axis: Objective Function
Now Hands on Work!!!
Any Questions?
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07/01/2015
Control Centre
Engine Settings
Defines task type
Task type can be modified from what
was originally selected when creating
the study
Any other options related to the engine
can be modified from this page
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07/01/2015
Engine Settings
Study Type
Engine
Simulator Settings
Simulation related settings:
Schedulers
Simulator version
Number of CPUs per job
Maximum simulation run time
Job record and file management
Data I/O Cleanup
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07/01/2015
Submit Simulations to Compute Cluster
CMG Scheduler
Microsoft HPC
IBM Platform LSF
Oracle Grid Engine
Portable Batch System (PBS/TORGUE)
Optimize Dataset I/O Section

Switches to reduce output file size
Disable restart records writing

Disable grid records writing in OUT
Disable grid records writing in SR2
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07/01/2015
Optimize Dataset I/O Section
What does CMOST do?
Benefits
Remove I/O bottleneck
Reduce occurrence of strange problems
Reduce support troubleshooting time
Experiments Table
List of Experiments
Parameter values used
Objective function results
Able to sort and filter results
Open in Builder and Results
Add additional experiments
User defined
Predefined experimental designs
(fractional factorial, latin hypercube, etc.)
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07/01/2015
Simulation Jobs
List of Simulations
Scheduler information
Start Time
End Time
Scheduler Name
Status
File information
Name and location
Normal/Abnormal termination
Any Questions?
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07/01/2015
Results & Analyses
Results & Analyses

All result objects are dynamically created on
the fly using the data stored in experiment
table
All types of result objects are available for
any study type
HM & OP will automatically have sensitivity
and proxy result if there are enough
experiments.
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07/01/2015
Results & Analyses

Parameters
Run progress
Parameter value vs. experiment number
Histogram
Frequency that range of parameter values
were chosen
Cross plot
Plot parameter values vs. other data
Current parameter always on y-axis
Results & Analyses

Time Series and Property vs. Distance
Plots of simulation results as defined in the Fundamental Data section
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07/01/2015
Results & Analyses

Objective Functions
Run progress
Objective function value vs. experiment number
Histogram
Frequency that range of objective function values occurred
Cross plot
Plot objective function values vs. other data
Current objective function always on y-axis
OPAAT Analysis
Results from One Parameter At A Time sensitivity analysis
Proxy Analysis
Proxy verification
Response Surface sensitivity analysis results
Monte Carlo Simulation uncertainty assessment results
Sensitivity Analysis Validating Results
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07/01/2015
Proxy Analysis for Objective Functions

Statistics
Polynomial proxy
Linear/Quadratic/Interaction
RBF neural network
Response Surface Verification

When using the response surface
methodology, one should verify that the
response surface provides a valid match to
the simulation data
This can be verified through
Response Surface Verification Plot
Summary of Fit Table
Analysis of Variance Table
Effect Screening
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07/01/2015

Gives a visual overview of how the proxy model
fits the actual simulation results
Distance from each point to the 45 degree line
is the error/residual for that point
Points that fall on the 45 degree line are those
that are perfectly predicted
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07/01/2015
R2 is a measure of the amount of reduction in the

variability of the response obtained by using the
regressor variables in the model.
R2 of 1 occurs when there is a perfect fit (the errors are
all zero).
R2 of 0 means that the model predicts the response no
better than the overall response mean.
R2 can be adjusted to make it comparable over

models with different numbers of regressors by
using the degrees of freedom in its computation.
Here n is the number of observations (training
jobs) and p is the number of terms in the
response model (including the intercept).
When R2 and R2adjusted differ dramatically, there is
good chance that non-significant terms have
been included in the model.
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07/01/2015
R2adjusted (Example)
4 Samples
n=4
Linear:
R2=0.9683
Quadratic:
R2=0.9715
4
4
1
1
2
0.9683
4
4
1
1
3
0.9715
PRESS is the prediction error sum of squares.

R2prediction gives some indication of the predictive
capability of the regression model.
For example, we could expect a model with
R2prediction=0.95 to explain about 95% of the
variability in predicting new observations.
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07/01/2015
To calculate PRESS,
Select an observation i.
Fit the regression model to the remaining n-1
observations and use this equation to predict the
withheld observation yi.
Denoting this predicted value by y(i), we can find the
prediction error for point i as ei=yi-y(i).
The prediction error is often called the ith PRESS
residual. This procedure is repeated for each
observation i=1,2,3,,n producing a set of n PRESS
residuals: e1, e2, e3en.
The PRESS statistic is then defined as the sum of
squares of the n PRESS residuals:
R2prediction Example
x
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
y
1.900
2.450
2.950
3.890
y(i)
1.657
2.484
3.194
3.483
PRESS:
SS
(Total):
R2prediction
ei
0.243
-0.034
-0.244
0.407
ei2
0.059
0.001
0.060
0.165
0.285
2.143
0.867
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Mean of Response
The overall mean of the response values. It is
important as a base model for prediction
because all other models are compared to it.
Standard Error
Estimates the standard deviation of the random
error. It is the square root of the mean square
for Error in the corresponding Analysis of
Variance table. Standard error is commonly
denoted as .

Degrees of Freedom
Total = Number of Samples 1
Model = Number of coefficients for the response surface (not
including intercept)
Error = Total Model
Sum of Squares
Total: Sum of Squared distances of each response from the
sample mean
Error: Sum of squared differences between the fitted (RS) values
and the actual simulated values
Model = Total Error
Mean Square
(Sum of Squares)/(Degrees of Freedom)
Converts sum of squares to an average
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07/01/2015

F Ratio
Model mean square divided by the Error mean square
Tests the hypothesis that all the regression parameters
(except the intercept) are zero (have no effect on the
objective function)
Prob > F
The probability of obtaining a greater F-value by chance
alone if the specified model fits no better than the overall
response mean.
Significance probabilities of 0.05 or less are often
considered evidence that there is at least one significant
regression factor in the model
Summary of Fit and Analysis of

Variance Table
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07/01/2015
Response Surface Model Checklist

Check Predicted vs. Actual
Is there a good fit?
Any outliers?
Check Summary of Fit

Is R-Square adjusted and R-Square prediction
large enough (>0.5)?
Check Analysis of Variance

For a decent model, Prob>F should be very
small (<0.0001).
Effect Screening using Normalized

Parameters (-1, +1)
Coefficient
Coefficients of the response surface model found by least squares
Standard Error
Estimate of the standard deviation of the distribution of the
parameter estimate (coefficient)
t Ratio
Statistic that tests whether the true parameter (coefficient) is zero
Prob > |t|

Probability of getting an even greater t-statistic (in absolute value),
given the hypothesis that the parameter (coefficient) is zero.
Probabilities less than 0.1 are often considered as significant
evidence that the parameter (coefficient) is not zero.
Used to filter statistically insignificant terms
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07/01/2015

Parameters (-1, +1)
VIF (Variance Inflation Factor)
Measure of multi-collinearity problem
Multi-collinearity refers to one or more near-linear
dependences among the regressor variables due to poor
sampling of the design space
Multi-collinearity can have serious effects on the estimates
of the model coefficients and on the general applicability of
the final model
The larger the variance inflation factor, the more severe the
multi-collinearity.
It is suggested that the variance inflation factors should not
exceed 4 or 5.
If the design matrix is perfectly orthogonal, the variance
inflation factor for all terms will be equal to 1.

Parameters (-1, +1)
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07/01/2015
Increasing PERMH_L1
(permeability) from
2625mD to 4375mD
results in an increase in
Cumulative Oil of 12,461
STB on average
Proxy Dashboard
See quick estimation of effects of
parameters on results at all simulation times
See results immediately without needing to
wait for additional simulation
Can assist in manual history matching or
optimization
CMOST can create dataset and run
simulation to verify proxy results
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Proxy Dashboard
Build Proxy
Model
What-if Scenario:
Estimate Objective
Functions
Select
Comparison Case
What-if Scenario:
Choose Parameter
Input
What-if Scenario:
Visualize Estimate of
Curve
Proxy Dashboard Method

Curve divided into 100 points
Response surface model created for each
point based on simulation results
Polynomial
RBF neural network
When parameter values are adjusted, each
point along the curve is recalculated using
the response surface
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07/01/2015
Any Questions?
History Matching and

Optimization
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07/01/2015
History Matching Goals

In history matching, we are trying to reduce the
error between the simulation results and field
measured data
By matching the simulation model to the historical
behaviour, we have more confidence that the model
will be able to predict future behavior
When creating a simulation model, there may be
uncertainty in the input parameters. These will be
the parameters that should be adjusted when
history matching
History Matching Process

E.g. porosity, permeability
E.g. between 20-30% porosity
Select results (Objective Functions) to
match
E.g. Cumulative Oil
CMOST will search for the best combination
of parameter values that will give the lowest
history match error
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07/01/2015
Objective Function Hierarchy

A hierarchy is used when optimizing the objective
function
Upper terms are calculated as a weighted
average of the lower terms
Global
Objective
Function
Local
Objective
Function 1
Term 1
Term 2
Local
Objective
Function 2
Term 3
Term 1
Local
Objective
Function 3
Term 2
Term 1
Term 2
Term 3
Objective Function Hierarchy

Typically common items are grouped together
E.g. The local objective functions might
represent the error for a well and the terms
might represent the measured data for that
well
Total Error
Well 1 Error
Oil
Production
Error
Water
Production
Error
Well 2 Error
Gas
Production
Error
Bottom-hole
Pressure
Error
Oil
Production
Error
Well 3 Error
Oil
Production
Error
Water
Production
Error
Gas
Production
Error
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Calculating History Match Error

simulated
Nt
Number of measurements
(Y
t 1
measured
Yt m )2
Nt
For each measured data point, calculate

different between simulation and measured
result
Square terms to make them positive
Sum up all of the points at all times
Divide by the number of measurements to get
average square
Square root to get average error

Nt(j)
(Y
t 1
TermError j
s
j,t
Y j,tm )2
Nt(j)
Y 4 Merrj
m
j
maximum difference
measurement error
To compare error of terms with different units, error

must be normalized
This is done by dividing by the maximum difference in
measured values
Measurement error can also be included
Merr represents 1 standard deviation from the mean

Value of 4 is used to include 2 standard deviations on each side of the
mean (95% confidence)
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07/01/2015

N(i)
Qi
TermError
i, j
j 1
100% tw i, j
N(i)
tw
j 1
i, j
Each Local Objective Function is made up of

a weighted arithmetic average of each of the
Terms
Nt(i, j)
(Y
t 1
Qi
N(i)
N(i)
tw
j 1
j 1
i, j
s
i, j,t
Yi,mj,t )2
Nt(i, j)
100% tw i, j
Yi,mj 4 Merri, j
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Calculating Global History Match Error

Nw
Q global
w Q
i 1
Nw
w
i 1
The Global Objective Function is made up of a

weighted arithmetic average of each of the
Local Objective Functions
Field Data Weighting

Able to weight each measured data point
individually
Remove or reduce weight of outliers
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Optimization Methods
CMG DECE (Designed Evolution, Controlled
Exploration)
Particle Swarm Optimization
Latin Hypercube plus Proxy Optimization
Random Brute Force Search
Optimization Philosophy
Mathematical optimization
Mathematicians are particularly interested in finding the true
absolute optimum.
Optimum 0.000001 is much better than 0.01 even though it may
take 20 extra days to achieve the former.
Engineering optimization
Engineers are more interested in quickly finding optima that are
close to the true optimum.
Optimum 0.01 is much better than 0.000001 if it takes 20 less
days to achieve the former.
CMOST Optimization Philosophy

Engineering optimization
Not intended to solve pure mathematical problems
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CMG DECE Optimization Algorithm

Generate initial Latin hypercube design
Run simulations using the design
Get initial set of training data
Exploitation (find optimum)

Success?
Add new
solutions to
training data
No
Exploration
(get more information)
Yes
Run simulations
No
Satisfy stop criteria?

Yes
Stop
CMG DECE Optimization Algorithm
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07/01/2015
DECE Characteristics
Handles continuous & discrete parameters

Handles hard constraints
Asynchronous complete utilization of distributed computing
power
Fast and stable convergence
PSO Optimization Algorithm

A population based stochastic optimization technique
developed in 1995 by James Kennedy and Russell Eberhart.
Let particles move towards the best position in search space,
remembering each local (particles) best known position and
global (swarms) best known position.
118
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Local
Area
119
Next
Case
120
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Algorithm
Generate initial Latin hypercube design
Run simulations using the design
Get initial set of training data
Polynomial
RFB Neural
Network
Build a proxy model using training data

Add validated
solutions to
training data
Find possible optimum solutions using proxy
Run simulations using these possible solutions
No
Satisfy stop criteria?

Yes
Stop

Algorithm
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Proxy Optimization
Optimization using proxy
Latin hypercube design
Random Search
Parameter value combinations randomly until
the max number of simulator calls has been
reached
No trend to results (scatter)
Only use if search space is small
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07/01/2015
Any Questions?
Optimization Goals
History matching and optimization are very similar in that in

each one would like to find the maximum or minimum of an
objective function
In history matching, we are trying to reduce the error between

the simulation results and field measured data
With optimization, we are trying to improve an objective

function
Find maximum NPV
Find maximum recovery
Etc.
Typically with optimization, the parameters that will be

adjusted are operational parameters as opposed to reservoir
parameters when history matching
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07/01/2015
Optimization Process

E.g. Injection rate, well spacing
E.g. between 200-500bbl/day injection rate
Select results (Objective Functions) to improve
E.g. NPV, recovery factor
CMOST will search for the best combination of
parameter values that will maximize your objective
function
In some cases we may want to minimize an
objective function such as when looking at run
times during numerical tuning
Calculating Net Present Value (NPV)

Net Present Value (NPV) is often used
as an economic indicator to evaluate the
value of a project
A discount rate (I) is used to incorporate
the time value of money
Money now is worth more than money later
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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV)
In CMOST, the cash flow is always calculated

based on the period that has been selected.
Daily
Monthly
Quarterly
Yearly
Yearly discount rate will be converted to the
period of interest
E.g. Daily:
Common OP Engine Settings

DECE
LHD Plus Proxy
OP
PSO
Random Brute Force
All methods use the

same stop criterion
Which objective
function to
optimization
Maximize or minimize
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Multi-objective PSO (SPE 170024)

Multiple-objective optimization: Optimizing
multiple, maybe conflicting, objective functions
simultaneously
Two approaches:
1. Optimize an aggregated global objective function
2. Pareto Optimization, e.g. Multiple-objective PSO
Multi-Objective PSO
Select the engine
How many simulations?
First objective function
Maximize or minimize?
2nd objective function

Maximize or minimize?
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How MO-PSO Works

Domination: Better in every objective function
Leader: A non-dominated solution
Pareto front: The ensemble of leaders
f1
Dominated solution
Leader
Pareto front
b
a dominates b
f2
Leader Selection
Leader is randomly selected for each particle
Least crowded leaders are given high priority,
trying to find an adequately spread Pareto front
f1
a
b
c
d
e
Priority
Leader
a, f
f2
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Case Study: Numerical Tuning

Numerical tuning of a SAGD model for a real
field
Full model takes >42d to run
After cleanup & tuning: 7d to finish (SPE
165511)
Sub model: 4 slices (4x600x50) takes ~1h to
run the first 6 months
Colin Card et.al. A New and Practical Workflow of Large Multi-Pad SAGD Simulation- A
Corner Oil Sands Case Study, SPE HOCC, SPE 165511, June 2013.
Single Objective PSO Optimization

Conflicting objective functions:
1. Run time
2. Material Balance Error
3. Solver Failure Percent
GlobalObj =
(50,000*MaterialBalanceError+1*RunTime+1,000*Solver
FailurePercent)/51,001
Use PSO to minimize GlobalObj
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MO-PSO Optimization
Same set of parameters
Minimize two conflicting objective functions:
MaterialBalanceError & RunTime
GlobalObj & SolverFailurePercent are also
calculated, just for comparison
Pareto front @500 MOPSO & 1000

SPSO Experiments
3500
MOPSO
SPSO
3400
3300
Run Time (s)
3200
3100
3000
2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
Material Balance Error (%)
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Any Questions?
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Uncertainty Assessment (UA)

Once an optimum operating strategy has been
developed for one or more history match models the
question remaining is:
Given residual uncertainties in the HM (or other)
variables, what impact will those uncertainties have
on the NPV of the optimum cases(s)?
How does this work?
Even with simple geological models we are still likely
to have more than one set of geological parameter
values that give an acceptable HM, thus indicating
some uncertainty in these values
141

How does this work?
If we have more than one geological realization that
gives an acceptable HM we have by definition an
uncertainty as to which realization best reflects reality
Thus we need to see how the NPV of our optimum
cases is impacted by the uncertainty in these
realizations
It is important to recognize that the HM process
develops alternative realizations and that parameters
which are part of these realizations cannot have their
values changed independently and arbitrarily
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Monte Carlo Simulation

Input probability
distributions derived from
experience
Probability distribution for HM parameters

DWOC
SORG
81
Pick random values (that

follow input distribution)
and calculate NPV
82
SORW
SORW
SORG
DWOC
0.25 0.30 0.35
0.25 0.30 0.35
83
NPV=F(DWOC, SORG, SORW, )
Repeat for thousands of

iterations
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Net present value (M$)
Prior Probability Density Functions

Defines likelihood of a parameter value being
selected in Monte Carlo Simulation for continuous
parameters
Uniform
Triangle
Normal
Log Normal
Custom
Probability for each value defined for discrete
parameter types
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Probability Distributions in CMOST
Normal
Lognormal
Triangle
Uniform
Custom
Discrete
Parameter Correlations
Some parameters may be related to each
other
E.g. porosity and permeability may
correlate with each other
Correlation coefficient defines how closely
related parameters are to each other
Value of 1 means parameters are directly
related
Value of 0 means that parameters have no
relation with each other
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Sampling of Correlated Parameters

POR
Parameter
POR
PERMH
PERMV
POR
PERMV
POR
PERMH
PERMV
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
POR
PERMH
PERMH
PERMH
PERMV
PERMV
Sampling of Correlated Parameters

Desired Values
Parameter
POR
PERMH
PERMV
POR
PERMH
PERMV
1
0.6
0.4
0.6
1
0.8
0.4
0.8
1
Calculated Values
Parameter
POR
PERMH
PERMV
POR
PERMH
PERMV
1
0.582
0.385
0.582
1
0.79
0.385
0.79
1
POR
PERMH
POR
PERMH
PERMV
PERMV
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Parameter Correlations
0.25
0.0
0.50
0.75
Objective functions can be evaluated using 2 methods

for Monte Carlo Simulation
Response surface as a proxy to reservoir simulation
Running reservoir simulation
Running reservoir simulation is often too slow to
evaluate the response so the proxy method is often
preferred
Situations to run reservoir simulation for Monte Carlo
simulation:
You want to validate MCS-proxy result
Building proxy is not feasible. For example,
Multiple Geostatistical realizations are used
Multiple HM models are used
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How do we do this?
The RS is generated by creating an
experimental design and providing and a
statistical distribution for each uncertain
parameter
The process is the same as polynomial
response surface modelling for sensitivity
analysis
RBF neural network type proxy models also
available for Uncertainty Assessment
A Monte Carlo simulation is then run to
determine the NPV distribution
UA Using MCS-Proxy Engine
Handles problematic
simulation runs
Specify desired
accuracy, the engine
will create and run
experiments as
needed.
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User Defined Study Type
User-defined Study Type

Manual Engine
User
Defined
All experiments are to be

created by the user
explicitly through:
Classical experimental
design
Latin hypercube
design
Manual
External Engine
Allows the use of users
own optimization
algorithm.
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When to Use Manual Engine

Use classical experimental design for SA and
UA
Precise control on the number of Latin
hypercube experiments
Run additional experiments after a
SA/UA/HM/OP run is complete.
Create new experiments using users
optimization algorithm
Working With CMOST
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Main CMOST Components

Base Files
To begin a CMOST project, a completed
simulation dataset (.dat) along with its
Simulation Results (SR2: .mrf, .irf) files are
required
CMOST Project
A CMOST Project is the main CMOST file that
can contain multiple related studies
CMOST 2013 File System
ProjectName:SAGD_2D_UA
ProjectFile:SAGD_2D_UA.cmp
ProjectFolder: SAGD_2D_UA.cmpd
Bestpractice: Allfilesrelatedtothe
projectshouldbestoredintheproject
folder.
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Main CMOST Components

CMOST Study
A CMOST study contains all of the input
information for CMOST to run a particular
type of task
Information can be copied between studies
Study types can be easily switched
The new study type will use as much
information from the previous study type as
possible
CMOST 2013 File System (contd 1)
StudyName:BoxBen
Study File:BoxBen.cms
StudyFileAutoBackup:BoxBen.bak
StudyFolder: BoxBen.cmsd
Dontmodify/deletefilesinthestudyfolder
unlessyouknowwhatyouredoing.
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CMOST 2013 File System (contd 2)
Vectordatarepositoryfile:*.vdr
VDRstorescompressed
simulationdatarequired for
objectivefunctioncalculations
SubsetofSR2results
Nevermodifyordeletevdrfiles
manually
Reusing and Restarting a Study
Auto
Synchronization
Auto/Manual
Reprocessing
After you run an engine, you can go back to change input data.
Experiments inside a study will be automatically reused.
If new parameters are added, you need to resolve reuse pending
experiments.
After you finish the changes, click start engine to restart.
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Reusing Data from Another Study
Licensing Multiplier
CMOST uses only partial licenses when
running simulations
E.g. Run 2 STARS simulations while using
only 1 STARS license
Applies to other license types (Parallel,
Dynagrid, etc.)
IMEX
GEM
STARS
4:1
2:1
2:1
x4
x2
x2
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CMOST Input Data Features

Quality Data
Quality Result
Further Assistance
Email: support@cmgl.ca
Zip an entire project or selected studies
Email or ftp the zip file to CMG
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Diagnostic Zip for Support Request
Diagnostic Zip for Support Request
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Any Questions?
86

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07/01/2015

Sensitivity Analysis, Assisted History

What this course is

What this course is not

Typical Workflow for a Brown Field

Field history file

CMOST View of Simulation Models

ym=f1(x1, x2, , xn)

CMOST User Interface

How Input Data is Organized

Define what data to be extracted from simulation

Define how the simulation model is

Define objective functions to be calculated

User-defined Time Series

Custom formula based 2D plots

Property vs. Distance Series

2D plots similar to Results Graph

Fluid Contact Depth Series

Depth of Fluid Contact (based on fluid saturation) vs. Time

Parameterization of Simulation Model (Builder)

Parameterization of Simulation Model (Text)

Highlight CMOST parameters

Different sections of the dataset

Handle include files

Create/extract include files

Master Dataset Syntax

Master Dataset Syntax

Master Dataset Syntax

Dependent Parameters Using Formula

Coupling with Geological Software

Basic Simulation Results

Characteristic Date Times

What are Dynamic Date Times

Why Need Dynamic Date Times

Dynamic Date Times: Maximize Peak NPV

Dynamic Date Times: Plateau

Characteristic Date Times Page

Data times that

Define Dynamic Date Time

User defined time series

Characteristic Time Durations

User-defined Objective Functions

Use Jscript or Python code

Use Excel Spreadsheet

Sensitivity Analysis Goals

Sensitivity Analysis Process

Sensitivity Analysis Methodology

One Parameter at a Time (OPAAT)

One Parameter at a Time (OPAAT)

Configure OPAAT Engine

One Parameter at a Time (OPAAT)

One Parameter at a Time (OPAAT)

Note: Min and max objective function values do

One Parameter at a Time (OPAAT)

Length of bar gives the

Response Surface Method (RSM)

Response Surface Method (RSM)

Multiple Parameters values are changed

Response Surface Proxy Models

Statistically insignificant terms are automatically removed

SA Using RSM Engine

Response Surface Method (RSM)

Response Surface Method (RSM)

Response Surface Method (RSM)