Economic costs of floods

in Pakistan
Presented by: Creatives

Flow of the presentation

Summary
Introduction
Methods
Discussion/findings
conclusion

Summary

Economic impacts
Areas under major damage
Time to recover
Main focus of the project

introduction

Most hazardous and destructive

Regions affected
Why the increase in floods
Natural disastrous

Frequency of hazards

Financial losses and people

killed

methods
Secondary data collection
Articles
Published journals
Newspapers
People
Database journals

Discussion
Jhelum and Chenab are mostly the
cause of flooding
River floods particularly hit Punjab
and Sindh
hill torrents tend to affect the hilly
areas of KPK, Baluchistan and
Northern areas
Mega cities face slight amount of
flooding due to sewerage systems

Costing methods
Direct Losses :
Monetary value of completely or
partially destroyed assets.
Social, physical and economic
infrastructure.
Calculated at the book value.
Deprecated value for lost immovable
assets.
Movable assets are valued at
replacement costs

Costing methods
Indirect loss:
Income loss
Change of flow of goods and services
Economic flows as well
By product of direct loss

Flood data
Years

Direct losses ( Lives lost

US $ millions )

Villages
affected

1973

5143

474

9719

1976

3485

425

18390

1978

2227

393

9199

1992

3010

1008

19208

2010

10000

1985

117553

Total

23865

3340

174069

Considering all the floods, 2010 flood was the worst accounting to
41% of the total loss faced.

Trend analysis
direct losses
12000

10000

8000

f(x) = 151.68x - 296434.69

R = 0.56

direct losses
Linear (direct losses)

6000

4000

2000

0
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Tarbela
dam
Warsak
dam
Jinnah
barrage

Mangla
dam

Chasm
a
barrage

Trimu
barrage

taunsa
barrage
Sukkur
barrage
Gudu
barrag
e
Kotri
barrage

Panjnad
barrage

Costs of 2010

Economic impacts
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Higher fiscal deficit

Major impact on agriculture
Balance of payment
Indirect impact on industrial sector
Higher inflation
Increase in external debt

conclusion
It has been observed that the districts Kohistan,
Shangla, Lower and Upper Dir, Swat, Nowshera,
D. I. Khan and Charsadda in Khyber Pakhtunkwa,
Muzaffarabad in Azad Jammu & Kashmir,
Mianwali, Dera Ghazi Khan and Rajanpur in
Punjab, Nasirabad, Jaffarabad and Kharan in
Baluchistan and Larkana, Kamber-Shahdadkot,
Dadu and Thatta in Sindh are prone to Flash flood
hazards and special measures like efficient
forecasting mechanism and community
awareness campaign be adopted to avert the loss
of precious lives and property in these areas.

 There are three options available for the reconstruction pattern each
with different costs and benefits. Option-1, costing US$ 1.483 billion,
is a base case, providing for a uniform subsidy for Building-As-Before
calculated on the basis of a katcha core unit. It is not recommended
and is provided for comparison purposes only. Option-2, costing US$
1.690 billion, offers a Partially Differential Subsidy providing for
restoration to flood resistant standard for those units that are located
within the flood hazard area. It is recommended only for districts in
Punjab and Sindh that are not at seismic risk. Option-3, costing US$
2.206 billion, provides for a Differential Subsidy for Building Back
Better to applicable multi-hazard-resistant standards for units at risk
of flood and/or earthquake - while building as usual in non-risk prone
areas. It is the recommended Option providing for optimal use of
scarce public resources, while ensuring adequate hazard resistance
proportionate with the relative hazard risk exposure and structural
vulnerability of houses in the affected districts.

 The short, medium and long term needs for the health sector have
been estimated at PKR 4,152 million (US$48.84 million). A total of
PKR 1,028.5 million (US$ 12.1 million) will be required to implement
the short-term strategy, while PKR 3,123 million (US$36.74 million) is
required for the medium- and long-term reconstruction and
rehabilitation of damaged health facilities. In the short-term,
strategies should focus on establishing essential health services
packages (primary health care, emergency obstetric care, response
to disease outbreak, supply of essential medical supplies, etc.).
Cross-cutting issues such as care for particularly vulnerable groups
(women of reproductive age, children and the elderly) should also be
addressed as a priority. In the medium- and long-term, a
comprehensive health sector revitalization strategy should aim at the
provision of minimum standards for health care, based on the key
principles of equitable access to essential health care, timeliness,
results, and accountability.

 Ensure that the rehabilitation and

reconstruction efforts are socially equitable
with support targeted mainly to those in
greatest need. Special measures should be
put in place to ensure that vulnerable groups
living in the flood affected areas, such as
landless farmers, tenants, and those in
riverine areas where property rights are poorly
defined, fully benefit from the support
measures to be provided, through targeted
outreach and monitoring

 Thank you