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DECISION
Investment Criteria
(1) Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) criteria
(i) Net present value
(ii) Internal rate of return.
(iii) Profitability index or Benefit-cost ratio.
At / (1+k)t
-C
.. (1)
t =1
Acceptance Rule
Accept if NPV > 0
Reject if NPV < 0
Marginal project if NPV = 0
ILLUSTRATION 1
Calculate the net present value for Project
A which initially costs Rs.2,500 and
generate year-end cash inflows of Rs.900.
Rs.800, Rs.700, Rs.600 and Rs.500 in
one through five years. The required rate
of return is assumed to be 10 per cent.
Cash inflows
(Rs)
PV of cash inflows
(Rs)
1
2
3
4
5
900
800
700
600
500
.909
.826
.751
.683
.620
Total PV
Less: investment outlay
Net present value
818
661
526
410
310
2725
2,500
225
Limitation
Cash flow estimation
Discount rate
Ranking of projects
Project
t0
t1
t2
A
B
-Rs50
-Rs50
Rs100
Rs30
Rs25
Rs100
Project
NPV at 5%
Rank
NPV at 10%
Rank
A
B
67.92
69.27
II
I
61.57
59.91
I
II
r = (C1-C0 ) /C0 = C1 / C0 - 1
Or 1+r = C1 / C0
Or C0 = C1 / (1+r)
(2)
This implies that the rate of return is the
discount rate which equates the present
value of cash inflow to the present value of
cash outflow.
n
= A t /(1 + r)t
.(3)
t =1
ILLUSTRATION 2
1
2
3
8,000
7,000
6,000
.833
.694
.579
6,664
4,858
3,474
_______
Total PV
14,994
Less: cash outflow 16,000
_______
NPV
(-)1,004
The net present value indicates that the chosen rate is a higher rate.
Therefore, lower rates should be tried. We try 18 per cent,16 per cent
and 15 per cent and obtain the following results:
Year
Cash
inflow
(Rs)
Discount
factor (DF)
18%
PV
(Rs)
DF 16% PV
(Rs)
DF 15% PV
(Rs)
8,000
.847
6,776
.862
6,896
.870
6,960
7,000
.718
5,026
.769
5,201
.756
5,292
6,000
.609
3,646
.641
3,846
.658
3,948
Total PV
15,456
15,943
16,200
Less: cash
outlay
16,000
16,000
16,00
NPV
(-)544
(-)57
200
Acceptance Rule
Accept if r>k
Reject if r<k
PROFITABILITY INDEX
It is the ratio of the present value of future cash benefits to the
initial cash outflow of the investment.
It may be gross or net, net being simply gross minus one.
The formula to calculate benefit-cost ratio or profitability index
is as follows:
PI = PV of Cash Inflows / Initial Cash Outlay
n
{At/ (1+k)t} / C
t =1
..(4)
Acceptance Rule
Accept if PI > 1
Reject if PI < 1
Marginal project if PI = 1
ILLUSTRATION 3
The initial cash outlay of a project is Rs.
100,000 and it generates cash inflows of
Rs.40,000, Rs.30,000, Rs.50,000 and Rs.
20,000 in the four years. Calculate the
NPV and PI of the project. Assume a 10
per cent rate of discount.
Cash inflows
(Rs)
Discount factor
Present value
(Rs)
40,000
0.909
36,300
30,000
0.826
24,780
50,000
0.751
37,550
20,000
0.683
13,660
Total PV
Less: outlay
1,12,350
1,00,000
NPV
PI
12,350
1,12350/1,00,000 = 1.1235
PAYBACK PERIOD
The payback (or payout) period is one of the most
popular and widely recognized traditional methods of
evaluating investment proposals. It is defined as the
number of years required to recover the original cash
outlay invested in a project. If the project generates
constant annual cash inflows, the payback period can be
computed dividing cash outlay by the annual cash inflow.
That is:
Payback period
=Cash outlay (investment) / Annual Cash inflow (A)
= C/A
..(5)
ILLUSTRATION 4
A project requires an outlay of Rs 50,000
and yields an annual cash inflow of Rs.
12,500 for 7 years. Calculate the payback
period.
The payback period for the project is:
Rs 50,000 / Rs12,500 = 4 years
ILLUSTRATION 5
Calculate the payback period for a project which
requires a cash outlay of Rs.20,000, and
generates cash inflows of Rs.8,000; Rs.7,000;
Rs.4,000; and Rs.3,000.
In case of unequal cash inflows, the payback
period can be found out by adding up the cash
inflows until the total is equal to the initial cash
outlay:
Acceptance Rule
Accept if the calculated PB period < the
maximum PB period set up by the management.
Reject if the calculated PB period
> the
maximum PB period set up by the management.
Marginal project, if the calculated PB period =
the maximum PB period set up by the
management.
ILLUSTRATION 6
Calculate the payback periods of the following projects each
requiring a cash outlay of Rs.10,000. Suggest which ones are
acceptable if the standard payback period is 5 years.
Year
Project X
Project Y
Project Z
1
2
3
4
5
Rs 2,500
2,500
2,500
2,500
2,500
Rs 4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Rs 1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
Payback period:
Evaluation
Advantages
Simplicity
Cost effective
Risk shield
Liquidity
Limitation
First, it fails to take account of the cash inflows earned after
the payback period.
Consider the following projects X and Y:
Project
C0
C1
C2
C3
Payback
NPV at k=.
10
X
Y
-4,000
-4,000
0
2,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
0
2 years
2 years
+806
-530
Limitation
Second, it fails to consider the pattern of cash inflows, i.e.,
magnitude and timing of cash inflows.
Consider the following projects X and Y:
Project
C0
C1
C2
C3
Payback
NPV at k=.
10
C
D
-5,000
-5,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
2 years
2 years
+881
+798
Limitation
Third, there is no rational basis for
setting a maximum payback period. It is
generally a subjective decision.
F o u r t h , i t i s i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h
shareholder value.
= C /A
.(7)
..(8)
C1
C2
C3
C4
Simple
PB
Discounted
PB
NPV
at 10%
P
PV of
cash
flows
-4,000
3,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
2 yrs
-4,000
2,727
826
751
683
2.6 yrs
987
Q
PV of
cash
flows
-4,000
4,000
1,000
2,000
-4,000
3,304
751
1,366
2.9 yrs
1,421
2 yrs
Project D
(Rs)
PV of Cash inflows
1,00,000
50,000
50,000
20,000
NPV
50,000
30,000
PI
1,00,000/50,000 50,000/20,000
= 2.0
= 2.5
Project C
(Rs)
Project D
(Rs)
Incremental
flow (Rs)
PV of Cash
inflows
1,00,000
50,000
50,000
Initial cash
outflow
50,000
20,000
30,000
NPV
50,000
30,000
20,000
PI
1,00,000 /50,000
=2
50,000/20,000
= 2.5
50,000/30,000
=1.7
Project B
(Rs)
2,00,000
1,00,000
NPV
1,00,000
1,00,000
PI
3,00,000/2,00,000 2,00,000/1,00,000
= 1.5
=2
(11)
t =1
0=
{At / (1+r)t} C
(12)
t =1
NPV =
.(13)
NPV
a2
a1
0
a3
r1
r2
r3
If the discount rate (say r1) is lower than r2, the NPV is positive. Thus the
project will be accepted under both the methods
If the discount rate is r2 which is also IRR, the NPV is zero
If the discount rate (r3) higher than r2, the NPV is negative. Thus the project
will be rejected under both the methods.
Project C0
M
N
C1
C2
C3
NPV at IRR
9%
140
1,510
301
321
23%
17%
Project M
Project N
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
560
409
276
159
54
-40
-125
810
520
276
70
-106
-257
-388
NPV
1000
800
400
Project N
Project M
600
200
0%
-200
-400
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Incremental approach
If we prefer Project N to Project M, there should be incremental
benefits in doing so. To see this let us calculate the incremental flows
of Project N over Project M. We obtain the following cash flows:
Project
C0
C1
C2
C3
NPV
at 9%
IRR
(N-M)
-1,260
140
1370
20
10%
t0
t1
-10,000
12,000
-10,000
t5
20,120
NPV
(k=10%)
IRR
909
20%
2,493
15%
Incremental Approach
Project
t0
t1
t5
NPV
(k=10%)
IRR
Y-X
-12,000
20,120
1,584
13.8%
3. Scale of Investment
Project
t0
t1
NPV
(k=10%)
IRR
-1,000
1,500
363.50
50%
-100,000
120,000
9080
20%
Incremental Approach
Project
t0
t1
NPV at 10%
IRR
(N-M)
-99,000
118,500
8,727
19.75
Non-conventional Investments :
Problem of Multiple IRRs
Let us consider the following project I:
Project
C0
C1
-1000
4,000 -3750
C2
We can use the IRR formula to solve the internal rate of return of
this project
4000 / (1+r) - 3750 / (1+r)2 =1,000
NPV
250
0
-250
-500
-750
50%
100%
150%
Project A
Project B
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
400,000
100,000
400,000
100,000
400,000
100,000
400,000
1000,000
400,000
1000,000
Year
Cash flow
PV factor at 10% PV
1
2
3
4
5
400,000
400,000
400,000
400,000
400,000
0.90909
0.82644
0.75131
0.68301
0.62092
363,636
330,579
300,526
273,206
248,369
________
PV of inflows
1516,315
PV of outflows 1000,000
__________
NPV
516,315
Year
Cash flow
PV factor at 10% PV
1
2
3
4
5
100,000
100,000
100,000
1000,000
1000,000
0.90909
0.82644
0.75131
0.68301
0.62092
90,909
82,645
75,131
683,013
620,921
________
PV of inflows
1552,620
PV of outflows 1000,000
__________
NPV
552,620
Calculation of IRR
Calculation of IRR of project A
Let IRR be r, then
1000,000 = 400,000/(1+r) + 400,000/(1+r)2 + 400,000/(1+r)3 +
400,000/(1+r)4 + 400,000/(1+r)5
Solving this equation we get IRR for project A is 28.65%
1000,000/(1+r)4 + 400,000/(1+r)4
Solving this equation we get IRR for project B is 22.8%
NPV
IRR
A
B
Rs516,315
Rs552,620
28.65%
22.8%
If for both A and B the cost of capital were different, say 25%, we
would calculate different NPVs and come to a different conclusion.
In this case:
Project
NPV
IRR
A
B
Rs75,712
-Rs67,520
28.65%
22.8%
Project A still has a positive NPV, since its IRR > 25%, but B has a
negative NPV, since its IRR<25%.
Reinvestment assumption
When evaluating mutually exclusive projects, the one
with the highest IRR may not be the one with the best
NPV. The IRR may give a different decision than NPV
when evaluating mutually exclusive projects because of
the reinvestment assumption:
IRR assumes cash flows are reinvested at the internal rate of return
IRR assumes cash flows are reinvested at the internal rate of return
IRR assumes cash flows are reinvested at the internal rate of return
Project
MIRR
IRR
NPV
A
B
19.55%
20.12%
28.65
22.79%
Rs516,315
Rs552,619