Bouncer effect/CFIUS

CFIUS- us has largest econ and lots of consumers, china not allowed.
China has own bouncers, can do the same
Most are not a threat
Increases the chance china may do the same
Most likely M&A from American to China
Most high profile
o CNOOC
o Huawei
o Ralls
CFIUS rejected Dubai Ports World b/c it was from the UAE
Most investment is not reviewed, many submit the plans in advance
Reserves the right got involuntary review

Looking for

o US does not want to spell it out, wants flex & ambiguity

o Proximity to military instalments
o Sensitive techs that could be transferred to other nations
Ordered to divest if fount to be a risk

Politics/ Election

Middle class can vote rep. with hard econ for factories
Trump seems unrealistic and experts are confused
China may not be popular
Fuck china, we need to be tough
Its not the truth its the spin

BIT negotiation treaty parts

Negative list (done 6/20/16)

Who rules disputes
HR/Environment laws
Transparent NSR
Less NSR
Fewer exceptions for SOEs
Finish before Trump
Senate needed to approve the treaty
{can Aff fiat congress?}

Econ or naw?

Strong eco ties

o Money talks

o
o
o
Many
o
o
o
o
o
o

Historically true
Interdependent
other relevant and important issues
Always there
Need stability
ROC
Japan
Climate
North Korea
China more likely to be cooperated with than US, regime change
could be good impact

Protectionism

More supportive of own companies than others

o All about degrees
o Tariff/quota are examples
o Subsidies to domestic are good
Causes tit-for-tat response
o Chinese CFIUS created
Decrease protectionism to help tariff arms race

Chinas Economy

How could takeoff be bad

o Military
o Provide resources to give to NK
o Environmental damage
o Buy US businesses
o Complex econ bubbles, ect .
Kirby is confused
Hazards within
o Civil unrest
o Diversionary war theorycause war and point anger of people at
others
o Net effect of economy
Japan could get angry either way
o Broke china bad stuff

The pressure CP

Engagement V containment
o Containment wants to keep China in control
o Use power to say that they need to change something about their
behavior
o Could irritation could be used to make China change
o CFIUS could be used as pressure
o American market is so wanted that pressure may work

Could go bad

Neolib.

People used to want to colonize

No longer overtly demanding change
Now using consumers to pressure cultures to change
Pressuring countries to make small changes to force bigger ones with market
pressure
Using economics to leverage changes and homogenize culture
Change the way things are run increase wage gap
New markets could help or hurt
People who enter with the most get the most