Sufficient

objective data
Judgmental methods No Yes Quantitative methods

Large changes Good

expected knowledge of
relationships
No Yes No Yes

Policy analysis Conflict among a few Type of Large changes

decision makers data likely
No Yes No Yes Cross-section Time series No Yes

Highly
repetitive with Policy Similar
learning analysis cases exist
Good
Policy
Yes No Yes No Yes domain
No analysis
knowledge

Unaided Type of No Yes Yes No

judgment knowledge

Domain Self

Expert Role playing

Judgmental Extrapolation/ Causal
Forecasting Conjoint Intentions/ (Simulated Structured Quantitative Expert Rule-based
bootstrapping/ Neural nets/ models/
(Delphi, NGT, analysis expectations interaction/ analogies analogies systems forecasting
Decomposition Game theory) Data mining Segmentation
ETE, Markets)

Several
methods provide
No Yes
useful forecasts
Single Combine
method forecasts
Omitted Selection Tree for Forecasting Methods
information? forecastingprinciples.com
JSA-KCG
Use unadjusted No Yes Use adjusted November 2007
forecast forecast