MENYIKAPI

ASEAN-CHINA FTA

Faisal Basri
24 April 2010
 NAFTA
Population: 445 mil.
GDP: US$15.857 tril.
Main Regional FTAs JAPAN
Population: 127 mil.
EU CHINA GDP PPP: US$ 4.29 tril.
Population: 491 mil. Population: 1.330 bil.
GDP: US$ 14.38 tril. GDP PPP: US$ 6.991 tril. Japan-Korea-China FTA
FTA Canada – Chile 1997 (under negotiation)
FTA : Chile – Mexico 1999
FTA : USA – Chile 2004
FTA : USA – Singapore 2004 Japan-Korea FTA
(under negotiation)
FTA : USA – Australia 2005
FTA : Mexico – Japan 2005
EU
FTA : Chile – Brunei – NZ – 25 countries
Singapore 2006 Japan-Mexico EPA
expanding to (signed agreement)
NAFTA Eastern Europe
U.S.A., EU-MEXICO
Canada, FTA
Mexico ACP-EU ASEAN-Japan
Countries in Africa and Comprehensive
expanding to the Caribbean Economic Partnership
Latin America (approx. 70 countries) (AJCEP)
Japan- under negotiation SAPTA Japan’s Bilaterals:
Mexico Bangladesh,
Bhutan, India,
• Japan-Singapore EPA
• Japan-Philippines EPA
EPA Maldives,
Nepal, Pakistan, Sri
• Japan-Thailand EPA
(signed agreement) Lanka • Japan-Malaysia EPA
AFTA • Japan-Indonesia EPA
Indonesia, Malaysia,
MERCOSUR
FTAA Argentina, Brazil,
Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam,
(by 2005) Paraguay, Uruguay
Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia
India - ASEAN China - ASEAN FTA ASEAN
FTA Population: 575.5 mil.
Australia-New Zealand-ASEAN FTA GDP: US$ 3.431 bil.

Korea - ASEAN FTA

Asean in the global landscape

3
Perdagangan Intra-Asean dan mitra utama
Direction of trade: Asean and Indonesia
Ingat: Peran Singapura !!!
  Asean Indonesia
From  
To 2000 2007 2000 2007
Developing Asia 37,4 41,2 33,1 37,1
China 3,7 8,9 4,2 8,1
Japan 12,6 9,4 22,1 18,1
United States 18,2 12,2 13,0 9,4
European Union 14,4 11,1 13,7 10,0
Others 13,7 17,2 13,7 17,3
Sources: ADB, March 2009
 Perjalanan Asean FTA dan ACFTA
Waktu Peristiwa
1991 Kesepakatan Asean FTA (AFTA)
  (lalu dipercepat jadi 2001)
1996 The PRC secara resmi menjadi mitra dialog Asean
1997 (Desember) Joint Statement kepala negara: Asean- The PRC sebagai
  sahabat dan mitra yang saling percaya songsong abad 21
2000 (November) Pada KTT Asean-The PRC para kepala negara menyepakati
  gagasan pembentukan ACFTA
2001 (Maret) Pembentukan Asean-The PRC Economic Expert Group
2002 (November) Pada KTT Asean-China para kepala negara tandatangani
  Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic
  Cooperation between Asean and the PRC
2003 Perundingan ACFTA dimulai, selesai Juni 2004
2003 Bali Concord (proposal Indonesia "Asean Community" diterima):
  AFTA menjadi bagian dari AEC
2004 (November) Kesepakatan ACFTA untuk barang ditandatangani (2004-10)
2007 Kesepakatan Asean Charter dan AEC Blue Print ditandatangani
2008 (Desember) Asean Charter berlaku
FTA: trade diversion

Biaya Dengan FTA

Negara Produksi Bea Masuk A+B
50%

A (Ina) 50 50 50

B (Chn) 40 60 40

C (Bra) 30 45 45
FTA: trade creation

Biaya Dengan FTA

Negara Produksi Bea Masuk A+B
100%

A (Ina) 50 50 50

B (Chn) 40 80 40

C (Bra) 30 60 60
 Skema tarif bea masuk

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

MFN 9.9 9,9 9,5 7,8 7,6 7,5 7,49

CEPT 3.4 2,8 2,8 2,0 1,9 1,9 0

ACFTA 9.9 9,6 9,5 6,4 6,4 3,8 2,9

AKFTA 9.9 9.9 9.5 6,6 6,0 2,6 2,6

AANZ 9.9 9,9 9,5 7,8 7,6 7,5 -

IJEPA 9.9 9.9 9.5 7.8 5,2 4,5 2,97

Sumber: Kemendag, 2009.
 Goods imported tariff rates under ACFTA
Simple average, percent

Country 2005 206 207 2008 2009 2010

Indonesia 9.57 9.50 6.37 6.38 3.83 2.92

Thailand 12.36 12.36 8.38 8.38 5.10 2.67

Philippines n.a n.a n.a n.a 3.54 4.64

China* 8.30 8.30 6.55 6.55 3.02 1.05

* Average tariff on goods imported from Indonesia.
Source: The World Bank, March 2010.
 Diuntungkankah Indonesia?

Source: Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, presentasi pada acara Diskusi Kompas, 23 Februari 2010.
 Dampak dan sektor yang dirugikan

Source: Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, presentasi pada acara Diskusi Kompas, 23 Februari 2010.
 Sektor-sektor yang diuntungkan
Perubahan
No. Sektor
Output, %
Other Meat: pig meat and offal. preserves and preparations of meat, meat offal or
1 7.5
blood, flours, meals and pellets of meat or inedible meat offal; greaves
Chemical Rubber Products: basic chemicals, other chemical products, rubber and
2 6.6
plastics products
3 Non-Metallic Minerals: cement, plaster, lime, gravel, concrete 3.9
Other Animal Products: swine, poultry and other live animals; eggs, in shell (fresh
or cooked), natural honey, snails (fresh or preserved) except sea snails; frogs’
4 3.6
legs, edible products of animal origin n.e.c., hides, skins and furskins, raw , insect
waxes and spermaceti, whether or not refined or coloured
5 Milk: dairy products 3.3
Other Machinery & Equipment: electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c.,
6 3.3
medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks
Other Food: prepared and preserved fish or vegetables, fruit juices and vegetable
juices, prepared and preserved fruit and nuts, all cereal flours, groats, meal and
pellets of wheat, cereal groats, meal and pellets n.e.c., other cereal grain products
(including corn flakes), other vegetable flours and meals, mixes and doughs for
7 2.5
the preparation of bakers’ wares, starches and starch products; sugars and sugar
syrups n.e.c., preparations used in animal feeding, bakery products, cocoa,
chocolate and sugar confectionery, macaroni, noodles, couscous and similar
farinaceous products, food products n.e.c.
8 Motor Vehicles: cars, lorries, trailers and semi-trailers 2.4
9 Construction: building houses factories offices and roads 2.2
10 Textiles: textiles and man-made fibres 1.8
Sumber: Output GTAP
Source: Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, presentasi pada acara Diskusi Kompas, 23 Februari 2010.
 Trade balance Indonesia-China
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Export

Value, mn US$ 2,768 2,201 2,903 3,803 4,605 6,662 8,344 9,676 11,637

Annual growth, % -20.5 31.9 31.0 21.1 44.7 25.2 16.0 20.3

Share to total, % 4.5 3.9 5.1 6.2 6.4 7.8 8.3 8.5 8.5

Import

Value, mn US$ 2,022 1,843 2,427 2,957 4,101 5,843 6,637 8,558 15,247

Annual growth, % -8.9 31.7 21.8 38.7 42.5 13.6 28.9 78.2

Share to total, % 6.0 6.0 7.8 9.1 8.8 10.1 10.9 11.5 11.8

Balance 746 358 476 845 503 819 1,707 1,118 -3,611
 Trade balance Indonesia-China (non-oil & gas)
US$ billion

  2008 2009 2010*

Exports 7,787 8,906 1,997
Imports 14,948 13,497 2,786
Trade Balance -7,161 -4,591 -789
% of Total    
Exports 7.2 9.1 10.9
Imports 15.2 17.3 18.6
Rank    
Exports 4 3 2
Imports 1 1 1
*January-February
Sources: BPS
FTA Asean-China

 Normal Track (target of tariff rate = 0%)

(a) Early Harvest Program (2006)
(b) NT1 (2010)
(c) NT2 (2012)

 Sensitive list
(a) Tahun 2012 tarif menjadi 20%
(b) Tahun 2018 tarif menjadi 0-5%

 Highly Sensitive list

Tahun 2015 tarif menjadi 50% (untuk produk
yang pada tahun 2002 tingkat tarifnya >50%)
 Sensitive track Indonesia
 Sensitive List: 304 Produk (HS 6 digit), antara lain
barang jadi kulit (tas, dompet); alas kaki (sepatu
sport, casual, kulit); kacamata; alat musik (tiup,
petik, gesek); mainan-boneka; alat olah raga; alat
tulis; besi dan baja; spare part; alat angkut;
glokasida dan alkaloid nabati; senyawa organik;
antibiotik; kaca; barang-barang plastik.

 Highly Sensitive List: 47 Produk (HS 6 digit), antara

lain terdiri dari produk pertanian, seperti beras,
gula, jagung dan kedelai; produk industri tekstil dan
produk tekstil (itpt); produk otomotif; produk
ceramic tableware.
 Japanese FDI: downward evaluation of Indonesia
Promising countries for overseas business operation
over the medium term (next 3 years or so)

Rank 1997 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1st China China China China China China China China China China

2nd USA USA USA Thiland Thailand Thailand India India India India

3rd Indonesia Thailand Thailand USA USA India Thailand Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam

4th Thailand Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Vietnam Vietnam Viet nam Thailand Thailand Russia

5th India Malaysia India Vietnam India USA USA USA Russia Thailand

6th Vetnam Taiwan Vietnam India Indonesia Russia Russia Russia USA Brazil

7th Philippines India Taiwan Korea Korea Indonesia Korea Brazil Brazil USA

8th Malaysia Vietnam Korea Taiwan Taiwan Korea Indonesia Korea Indonesia Indonesia

9th Brazil Korea Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Taiwan Brazil Indonesia Korea Korea

10th Taiwan Philippines Singapore Brazil Russia Malaysia Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan
ce: JBIC.
 The World competitiveness scoreboard
Country 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
USA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Singapore 4 2 3 3 2 2 3
Hong Kong 10 6 2 2 3 3 2
Switzerland 9 14 8 8 6 4 4
Australia 7 4 9 6 12 7 7
China 27 22 29 18 15 17 20
Taiwan 17 12 11 17 18 13 23
Malaysia 21 16 26 22 23 19 18
India 42 30 33 27 27 29 30
Korea 32 31 27 32 29 31 27
Thailand 28 26 25 29 33 27 26
Philippines 41 43 40 42 45 40 43
Indonesia 49 49 50 52 54 51 42
Venezuela 51 51 51 53 55 55 57
Source: International Institute for Management Development, World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2009.
Indonesia’s post-crisis journey
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %

6.6

6.4
7

5.4
4.2
5
3

1
-1
-3

-5
-7

-9 Gus Dur:
-11 “Erratic/shaky”
-13
Megawati:
-15 Consolidation and
-17 acceleration
-19
SBY: Throws away
-21 Momentum, and then made
correction
Crisis
peak Source: BPS.
 Low quality — Sectoral growth rate
(2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %)

  2007 2008 2009 Q3-09 Q4-09 2009-Share

Tradable 3.9 3.4 2.2 2.9 4.5 52.2
Agriculture 3.4 4.8 4.1 3.3 4.6 15.3
Mining & Quarrying 2.0 0.5 4.4 6.2 5.2 10.5
Manufacturing 4.7 3.7 2.1 1.3 4.2 26.4
Non-Tradable 8.8 8.7 7.1 5.6 6.4 47.8
Electricity, Gas & Water 10.3 10.9 13.8 14.5 14.0 0.8
Construction 8.6 7.3 7.1 7.7 8.0 9.9
Trade, Hotel & Rest. 8.4 7.2 1.1 -0.2 4.2 13.4
Transport & Comm. 14.0 16.7 15.5 16.4 12.2 6.3
Finance 8.0 8.2 5.0 4.9 3.8 7.2
Services 6.6 6.4 6.4 4.2 5.7 10.2
GDP 6.3 6.1 4.5 4.2 5.4 100.0
Source: BPS.
 Industri manufaktur merana

Sumber: diolah dari data BPS.

 Pertumbuhan manufaktur melorot

Rata-rata
Pertumbuhan (%)  2008 2009*
87-96 00-08 04-08
PDB 6,9 5,2 5,7 6,1 4.6

Manufaktur - total 4,7 4,8 3,7

Manufaktur non-migas 12,0 5,7 5,6 4,0 1.5

Peran pada pertumbuhan PDB 1,9 1,4 1,4 1,0 0.4

* January-June.
Source: BPS.
Gejala deindustrialisasi dini
Industri manufaktur Industri manufaktur nonmigas

Source: calculated from BPS.

 Industri besi dan baja lebih merana
Pertumbuhan industri manufaktur
  00-08 04-08 2008 Peran (%)
Total Industri Non-Migas 5.7 5.6 4.0 100
Mamin dan Tembakau 1.0 2.9 1.0 2.8 0.7 2,3 30.4
Tekstil, brg. kulit & alas kaki 0.3 2.2 0.0 1.6 -0.4 -3,6 9.2
Brg. kayu & Hasil hutan lainnya. 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 3,5 6.4
Kertas dan barang cetakan 0.2 3.1 0.2 3.2 -0.1 -1,5 4.6
Pupuk, kimia & brg dari karet 0.8 6.2 0.9 6.1 0.6 4,5 13.5
Semen & brg. galian bk logam 0.2 6.0 0.1 6.0 0.0 -1,5 3.5
Logam dasar besi & baja 0.0 0.1 0.0 -1.3 0.0 -2,1 2.6
Alat angkut, mesin & peral. 3.3 16.1 3.4 13.0 3.2 9,8 29.0
Barang lainnya 0.0 5.3 0.0 4.4 0.0 -1,0 0.8
Gejala dini deindustrialisasi

 Net entry negatif untuk indusri manufaktur

menengah dan besar.
 Alokasi kredit perbankan ke sektor industri
manufaktur merosot tajam
 Daya saing industri manufaktur melemah
 Konsumsi listrik ke industri negatif
 Indonesia tersisih dari regional production
networks
Pertumbuhan dan pangsa kredit
Penyaluran kredit perbankan ke
sektor industri secara nominal tetap
tumbuh namun persentasenya
makin rendah. Pada 1985, hampir
40% kredit perbankan disalurkan ke
sektor industri pengolahan. Pada
2008, industri manufaktur hanya
memperoleh 16% kredit perbankan.
Perbankan lebih tertarik pada
pembiayaan konsumsi dan
pembangunan properti.
Penurunan volume kredit perbankan
berarti kelangkaan pembiyaan
investasi dan modal kerja bagi
sektor industri.
Konsumsi listrik untuk industri turun
Pertumbuhan penjualan listrik 2008 dan semester I 2009
The exports of East Asian countries have
become more similar
Parts and components exports are more
important in East Asia
Specialization and efficiency are growing in
high-tech machinery exports
 Research and development expenditure
  R&D Spending 2002 R&D as % of GDP
Countries US$ Bill (PPP) % of World 1992 2002
East Asia 111.7 13.5 0.7 1.2
Hong Kong 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.6
Korea 20.8 2.5 1.9 2.5
Singapore 2.2 0.3 1.2 2.2
Taiwan 12.2 1.5 1.8 2.3
Indonesia 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1
Malaysia 1.5 0.2 0.4 0.7
Philippines 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1
Thailand 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
China 72.0 8.7 0.8 1.3
Developed 645.8 77.8 2.3 2.3
Japan 106.4 12.8 2.9 3.1
United States 275.1 33.1 2.6 2.6
Developing 184.1 22.1 0.6 0.9
Latin America 21.7 2.6 0.5 0.6
Emerging Europe 30.3 3.7 1.0 1.2
World 829.9 100.0 1.7 1.7
Source: World Bank (2006), based on Unesco (2004, 2006).
 R&D indicators
Sector of performance Sector of funding R&D spending

Country Business Govern’t Higher Education Bisiness Govern’t Higher Education US$ billions % of GDP

Korea 76.1 12.6 10.1 74 23.9 1.7 20.8 2.5

Singapore 63.8 10.9 25.4 54.3 36.6 2.3 2.2 2.2

Taiwan 62.2 24.8 12.3 63.1 35.2 0 12.2 2.3

Indonesia 14.3 81.1 4.6 14.7 84.5 0.2 0.3 0.1

Malaysia 65.3 20.3 14.4 51.5 32.1 4.9 1.5 0.7

Philippines 58.6 21.7 17 59.7 24.6 7.5 0.4 0.1

Thailand 43.9 22.5 31 41.8 38.6 15.1 1.1 0.2

China 62.4 27.1 10.5 60.1 29 10 72 1.2

Japan 75 9.3 13.7 74.5 17.7 6.3 106.4 3.1

USA 70.1 12.2 13.6 63.7 31 5.3 275.1 2.6

rce: World Bank (2007) based on Unesco (2006).

 Global innovation ranking
  Innovation Performance Innovation Enablers Rank
Countries 2004-2008 2009-2013 2004-2008 2009-2013
Japan 1 1 11 11
United States 4 5 5 6
Taiwan 7 6 15 14
Israel 9 8 10 9
Korea 11 11 18 17
Singapore 16 16 16 18
Hong Kong 21 22 22 22
South Africa 34 29 47 48
Malaysia 31 35 33 40
Russia 39 39 32 32
China 54 46 50 41
Brazil 49 49 45 46
Thailand 58 57 60 62
Philippines 61 58 63 57
Venezuela 50 59 59 68
Indonesia 74 74 75 76

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, A New Ranking of the World’s Most Innovative Countries, 2009.
Keunikan Indonesia
Negara kepulauan
Mewujudkan negara maritim yang
mampu mengintegrasikan
perekonomian domestik menuju
negara maju yang berkeadilan
 Kerangka
Kerangka Strategi
Strategi Pembangunan
Pembangunan
VISI:
VISI:
Mewujudkannegara
Mewujudkan negaramaritim
maritimyang
yangmampu
mampumengintegrasikan
mengintegrasikan
perekonomiandomestik
perekonomian domestik menuju
menujunegara
negaramaju
majuyang
yangberkeadilan
berkeadilan

M
I 1. Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dan berkelanjutan;
S 2. Perluasan penyerapan tenaga kerja;
I 3. Pengentasan kemiskinan dan pemerataan pembangunan.

Melaluipencapaian
Melalui pencapaian55(lima)
(lima)sasaran
sasaranstrategis:
strategis:
Struktur Sumber
Pemanfaatan Birokrasi yang
ekonomi yang Sumber daya pembiayaan
SDA secara kompeten,
kokoh, mandiri manusia pembangunan
optimal dan efektif dan
dan berdaya produktif mencukupi dan
lestari bersih
saing efisien

Fokusppada
Fokus ada77area
areakebijakan
kebijakan: :

Infrastruktur Kualitas sumber Teknologi Pasar tenaga Pasar modal Pasar barang: Kebijakan
•Penyediaan daya manusia •Peningkatan dan kerja: dan perbankan: •Sistem distribusi afirmatif:
infrastruktur (fisik •Implementasi sistem efisiensi alokasi •Penyempurnaan •Mobilisasi dana yang efisien. •Active industrial
pendanaan kesehatan anggaran negara UU masyarakat: •Perlindungan policy: men-
dan non fisik) yang
handal; berkelanjutan dan untuk penelitian; ketenagakerjaan; tabungan haji, wajar bagi dorong kegiatan
•Skema pendanaan •Insentif kegiatan •Peningkatan surplus dana produsen usaha potensial
terencana; domestik dari
•Pembangunan R&D oleh swasta; penyerapan tenaga masyarakat. dan strategis;
•Kebijakan harga •Monetisasi asset persaingan tidak
kerja sektor formal; •Penguatan
infrastruktur. pendidikan mengacu •Implementasi negara; adil dengan struktur pelaku
pada output. sistem jaminan •Peningkatan produsen luar usaha;
sosial bagi pekerja; basis pajak. negeri; •Persebaran
spasial kegiatan
ekonomi

Lingkungan sosial dan politik Kerangka kelembagaan Struktur pasar 37

SUPRASTRUKTUR
Price disparities (Rupiah)

Region Rice Wheat flour Sugar Cooking oil Salt

East Jawa 4,250 3,606 6,000 4,150 1,600
West Kalimantan 4,400 4,000 5,800 4,500 2,450
East Kalimantan 4,500 4,000 6,500 4,500 2,000
South Sulawesa 4,400 3,500 6,500 4,500 2,000
East Nusa
Tenggara 4,200 4,500 5,800 6,300 2,000
Merauke 5,000 7,000 7,000 6,670 3,000
Nabire 6,000 10,000 11,000 11,000 4,000
Paniai 18,000 7,500 8,000 7,000 8,000
Source: Ministry of Trade.
Logistic cost in comparison
Logistics performance index

Source: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy, 2007..

Latest logistics performance index: 2010

http://go.worldbank.org/48HLQW56U0
 Low port efficiency

Singapore
Hong Kong
United States
Canada
Japan
New Zealand
Australia
Malaysia
Taiwan
Thailand
Chile
Korea
Mexico
Russia
China
Indonesia
Peru
Philippines
Viet Nam

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Source: Wilson, Mann, and Otsuki, 2004.

 Port efficiency
Container handling cost per Ship movement per hour
40 feet (US$) (unit)

L. Chabang, Thailand 43 L. Chabang, Thailand 75

Chittagong, Bangladesh 60 Chittagong, Bangladesh 10
Kwangyang, Korea 69 Kwangyang, Korea 80
Port Klang, Malaysia 70 Port Klang, Malaysia 50
Manila, Philippines 85 Minila, Philippines 20
Keohsiung,Taiwan 88 Keohsiung, Taiwan 75
T. Priok, Indonesia 130 T. Priok, Indonesia 35

Source: USAID-SENADA, 2008.

Tanjung Priok is the biggest seaport in Indonesia, but the productivity

is the lowest among neighbouring countris
Inland transportation cost

 Indonesia and Asia

 Indonesia: US$0.34/km
 Asia (average): US$0.22/km
(Indonesia 1.5 times higher than
average Asia)

 Cost of Warsawa—Hamburg (750 km) is

half of Makassar—Enrekang (240 km)
Terima Kasih

Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
Blog: http://kompasiana.com/faisalbasri