Global Hazards

Define Hazard/disaster
Natural Hazard – a natural event or physical process which affects people, e.g.
causing loss of life, injury, economic damage, disruption of peoples lives or
environmental degradation.

Briefly explain the nature of hazard types

Hydro-meteorological – hazards that are caused by running water and its
processes (hydro) and those associated with or caused by weather patterns
(meteorological). These include; flood, debris and mud flows, hurricanes, coastal
storm surges, thunder and hailstorms, rain and windstorms, blizzards droughts,
bushfires, temperature extremes and sand and dust storms.
Geophysical – hazards caused by earth processes. There are two types – internal
earth processes of tectonic origin, e.g. earthquakes, tsunami and volcanic
activity. External earth processes of geomorphologic origin involving mass
movements, e.g. landslides, rockslides and rock falls.
The two types can also overlap - An avalanche may be hydro-meteorological in
origin, but geophysical as an event.

Explain threats to life and property

Disaster – a hazard becomes a disaster when a hazard event occurs near a
vulnerable population susceptible to human and or economic loss. For example
Hurricane Katrina.
Vulnerability – the capacity of a person or group to cope with, resist and recover from
the impact of a natural hazard. Vulnerable populations include, areas with poor incomes,
and so lack of money to relocate/rebuild after a hazard/pay for good infrastructure.
Poorly educated areas – not aware of how to react to a hazard. Location of population –
coastal areas more at risk, e.g. Hurricane Katrina. LEDC’s are usually more at risk
because they have lack of money to react in a hazard situation.

Make use of the disaster risk equation

frequency∨magnitude of hazard ( H ) x level of vulnerabiluty (V )

Risk ( R )= cope∧adapt ( C ) ¿
capacity of population ¿

or

H xV
R=
C
Define context and chronic hazard
Context hazards that have widespread threats with the potential to affect the entire
planet. Climate change is an example of this.
Chronic hazards are hazards that are ongoing.

State impacts of global warming – including the issue of injustice

Climate change – any marked trend or shift in climate that shows a prolonged change in
the average value for any climate element, for example rainfall or drought.
Global warming – refers to a consistent recently measured rise in the average surface
temperature of the planet.
The greenhouse effect – A natural process that warms the Earth’s atmosphere due to the
trapping of heat that would otherwise be radiated back into space. Without this the
earth could not survive.
An enhanced greenhouse effect – occurs when the amount of greenhouse gases, like
carbon dioxide, increase. Scientists argue this is because of human activity such as the
burning of fossil fuels. This the creates carbon dioxide which rises, trapping and traps
more heat in the earth, enhancing the natural greenhouse effect.
The tipping point – This is the point in which a change is irreversible. In terms of climate
change it is the point at which the temperatures have raised so significantly that climate
change becomes irreversible. Some scientists suggest this will occur when a global
temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius has been reached.

Climate change is a global issues, and will come to affect all areas of the world, however
not all at the same degree. It is a chronic (ongoing) hazard. It has a massive amount of
affects linked to rising temperatures. For example hurricanes need temperatures of 27
degrees Celsius to form, and if temperatures rise, this will make them occur more often.

Climate change has various issues , not just environmental. These include, impacts on
societies and economies, threatening their existence in terms of water availability, food
security and health and wellbeing.

Climate change is unpredictable, and could become catastrophic depending on how

quickly the tipping point is reached. This depends on both physical and human factors.
For example rising sea temperatures cause the melting of glaciers and ice sheets which
have a better albedo (reflective power). These therefore reflect solar radiation, and
without them this radiation would be absorbed by land and sea, causing the
temperature to rise further. This therefore means that the melting of the ice caps, leads
to more melting, this is an example of positive feedback. The human factor is how
effectively the world can mitigate the damaging effects, but reducing the production of
greenhouse gases to slow down the rate of global warming.

Climate change also has indirect impacts. This include thermal expansion of the oceans
as water expands by heating, which leads to rising sea levels. The sea levels are also
rising as the ice caps melt. The prediction of climate change requires successful
modeling of the future by scientists from places such as the IPCC (Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change).

Changing salinity – the earths oceans and winds distribute heat between the warmest
and coldest parts. The thermohaline circulation is a flow of warm and cold water that
circulates around the world’s oceans. This occurs because in the North Atlantic the
water is cold and saline (salty), which makes it heavier and causes it to sink. When it
sinks it draws warmer water in from the oceans surface from the Tropics. This then
sends cold water to the tropics to be warmed again.

Global Hazard Trends

Define magnitude and frequency

Magnitude – the size or extent of something.
Frequency – the number of occurrences in a given time period.
The frequency and magnitude of hazards are increasing with climate change.
Describe trends in hazards and impacts
The amount of hydro-meteorological hazards reported per year has gone from 50 a year
in 1960, to over 400 per year in 2005. It is hard however to work out how much of this
huge increase is due to global warming, and how much is due to better technologies to
report hazards, and also larger, and more vulnerable populations. Geophysical hazards
have however only risen by about 20 disasters a year from 1950 to 2005. The likely
reason for this is that hydro-meteorological hazards are very easily affected by the
weather, for example a temperature rise can cause better conditions for hurricanes,
meaning more occur. The rise in geothermal hazards is more than likely just because the
technology to report disasters has increased, and the increased vulnerable population,
because there has been nothing to suggest global warming affects geothermal hazards.

Explain the nature of El Nino and its unpredictability

El Nino is a cycle that affects the winds and ocean currents.
Walker Cell (normal year) – This is where the air in the upper atmosphere moves west
to east, and surface air moves east to west. This creates low pressure in the west leading
to warmer, but rainy climates, and high pressure in the east leading to colder climates.
El Nino – this is where the pressure systems therefore weather patterns reverse. This
leads to warmer waters in the eastern Pacific, with temperatures rising up to 8 degrees
Celsius. Low pressures form towards the east, creating warmer climates with heavy
rainfall. The consequences of El Nino are; In South America – Heavy rain and flooding,
especially in Peru, crops and livestock washed away, Coral beaching – Galapagos islands,
and hurricanes in the central pacific. The USA - There is severe flooding, particularly in
the South West and increased summer droughts. Asia and Australia suffer droughts over
the entire region, they loose crops and livestock, and Australia suffers from forest fires.
The worldwide impacts include African/East Asian floods, and milder European winters.
Scientists attempt to predict El Nino using methods such as NOAA drifting buoys which
measure temperature, currents, and winds. They also use satellite imagery. The issue is
that the cause of El Nino is unknown, and therefore it is very hard to predict.
Australian Bushfires – These are common, but only cause an average of 5 deaths a year,
however averagely 84 homes are destroyed. Less than 10% are started deliberately, the
most frequent reasons for them starting are because of carelessness, and lighting
strikes. Once they have started, they are hard to stop, and spread in three ways. Ground
fires – where dry leaf litter and twigs catch light and fire spreads through the
undergrowth. Crown fires – fires spread through the treetops. Spot fires - caused by
burning embers landing away from the main fire starting new fires of their own.
Methods such as controlled burning, where regular burning of leaf litter is used to
reduce fuel for bush fires, and educational programs showing people what to do, and
what protection to use such as sprinkler systems have helped reduce deaths. The Ash
Wednesday bushfires in 1983 killed 75 people, but the 2006-7 fires only killed 4 people.

Describe a range of possible global warming scenarios

The European Emissions Trading Scheme – In 2007 the EU set targets to reduce the
greenhouse gas emissions by 20% to what the levels were in 1990. It therefore set up
the ETS as a means of carbon offsetting. It set emission targets for every country, and
gave some of the ‘dirtiest’ industries, like oil, credits to emit certain amounts of carbon.
It aims to; cut emissions by putting a limit on the amount the can be emitted, get
polluters to pay for the damage they cause, and create incentives for companies who
invest in cleaner technologies. Over time the EU plans to reduce the credits available
below the level of demand, and this will create a shortage. As the supply decreases, and
the demand increases, it means the price will rise, which will mean companies can sell
credits they no longer need, and spend the money on cleaner technologies. The issue
with this is that a lot of companies have moved out of Europe, reducing the demand for
credits.
Kyoto Protocol – this is a global agreement setting targets for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions. 175 countries signed up. It states that industrialized countries are to cut their
overall greenhouse gas emissions to 5% below their 1990 levels by 2012. Some
countries delayed signing up, and some never did. In the EU only France, Sweden and
the UK have achieved an 8% reduction. Implications include a change from coal to
cleaner gas fired power stations, and an increase in petrol tax.
The Stern Review – In 2006 the government published a review of global warming. It
stated that greenhouse gas emissions are to be stabilized by 2025, and then fall by 1-3%
annually after that.

Identify and explain local risks in relation to global warming and other hazards
Northampton Floods (1998)
Cause – 7th April a cool northerly airflow covered the UK an area of low pressure formed
over Iceland.  8th April this depression moved southwards across the UK  9th April
thunderstorms broke out ahead of it. A blocking anticyclone over Scandinavia meant
that the rain remained virtually stationary over the midlands for almost two days. Flood
forecasting was handicapped by insufficient rainfall information which masked the
severity of the event. El Nino has been worsened by global warming, expanding it to
areas such as the UK, and influencing this flood.
Impact – More than 2400 properties in Northampton were affected. There were two
deaths. Power supplies were cut off and as most people were asleep, there was little
time to take action and reduce damage. A mass evacuation was launched with lorries,
trucks and small boats evacuating people to higher ground. Some residents were stuck
in their homes for over 12 hours, and some suffered from shock. Bu 10 th April water
polluted with sewage, heavy metals and mercury had swept through 2500 properties.
One in three houses in St James were uninsured, and 5000 cars in the area were written
off. The council offered residents who had council houses other houses away from the
flood; this cost them almost 6 million pounds. Local businesses lost thousands of pounds
in stock; some shows were forced to close for months.
Management – People were not being made aware they were living on a flood plain,
therefore they were not aware of the dangers. The Northampton flood relief fund was
established and over £160,000 was collected to help the victims. Local companies
including Tesco and Sainsbury’s helped out with emergency food supplies. The council
agreed they would not grant planning permission on any greenbelt land on the
floodplain. River channels were poorly maintained in some places, with trees and debris
reducing the storage capacity of the channel. Flood defenses were poorly maintained
and funded, for example some had 4 meter gaps in. Some drainage systems were in a
poor condition leading to worsened size and depth of the floods.

Describe the distribution of natural hazards globally

Distribution of geophysical hazards – Plate boundaries - The earths crust is divided
into seven major plates, and a number of smaller ones. Some are oceanic and others
continental. There are three types of plate boundaries; conservative, destructive and
constructive. Destructive plate boundaries are where a oceanic plate meets a
continental plate and they collide together producing a range of different earthquakes
from shallow to deep earthquakes. The oceanic plate descends under the continental
plate, and as it does it begins to melt due to friction. The melted plate makes magma,
which rises through the gaps in the continental plate, and if it reaches the surface, it
forms a volcano. 80% of the world’s volcanoes are located on destructive plate
boundaries. Constructive boundaries are where plates are moving apart. These lead to
low magnitude earthquakes, mostly under the sea. When the plates move apart magma
fills the gap created, and this creates volcanoes particularly along the mid Atlantic ridge.
Conservative boundaries are where the plates slide past each other, producing frequent
shallow earthquakes, and occasional high magnitude ones. An example of this is the San
Andreas Fault.
Mt St Helens – Washington USA, west coast. Date 18th May 1980.
A volcano mountain range on a destructive plate boundary stretching from California to
British Columbia is a dormant range, and rarely erupts. On March 20 th a magnitude 4
earthquake alerted that Mt St Helens was resuming activity after being dormant for 123
years. Scientists took ash samples by plane, and found that the rise in sulfur dioxide
indicated magma was on the move. The area around the volcano was evacuated where
scientists predicted the magma would reach. However a bulge was detected on the north
flank, which appeared to be swelling. It was growing at 1.5 meters per day, causing it to
be 135 meters by May 17th. On May 18th at 8.32 an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 caused
an injection of magma out of the bulge on the north flank. This was a lateral blast,
meaning that it hit an area scientists had not marked off as a danger zone. The blast was
followed by pyroclastic flows pouring out the crater at temperatures of over 300
degrees Celsius and traveling over 400km/h. 57 people were killed. It cost the forestry
industry because of the huge amount of trees destroyed $450 million. There was $100
million in property damage, $40 million in agriculture, and it cost the government $363
million to clean up after. The amount of people killed was small for the size of the blast.
This may have been because of the technology used to predict it, and create protective
zones, but also perhaps because it occurred on a Sunday, when most people who worked
in forestry were not in the area. The ash cloud circuled the globe in 17 days, and caused
areas of America to have to ground flights, creating an economic issue because goods
could not be transported, and also the transport industry would be under great costs.

Icelandic Volcano April 2010. Iceland is located on a constructive plate boundary in

the Atlantic Ocean. In April 2010 the Eyjafjallajokull volcano began releasing large
quantities of ash and gas. The wind blew this ash over Europe creating huge economic
issues. The main issue was that flights had to be grounded because of the quantities of
ash. This brought an estimated loss of $200 million to airlines per day. As of this lapse of
transportation it caused companies like BMW to struggle with production because of
disrupted supply, causing 7000 vehicles not to be produced. Not all companies suffered,
car rental companies such as Avis, who found a 10% increased cross border car hire
demand, found because of the demand for transport, other methods had to be used. The
main issue was that because the ash cloud was formed over MEDC’s there was more
reliance on modern technology. This meant that it caused heavier costs. Also air flights
are essential for the operation of the global network, meaning that physical factors can
in fact affect globalization significantly.

The Distribution of hydro metrological hazards – Storms – Hurricanes need

temperatures of 27 degrees Celsius to form. In order for the Corilosis effect to occur
being about the rotation of air needed, they can only form 5 degrees above or below the
equator. This means they only form in particular hotter climates, such as the East coast
of America, around Florida.

Research 2 compulsory disaster hotspots and explain causes, impacts and interactions
(California Coast and the Philippines)
The Philippines – It at major risk because; it sits across a major plate boundary, the
Philippine and Eurasian plates. This is a destructive plate boundary. Its northern and
eastern coasts face the Pacific, which is the world’s most tsunami-prone ocean. It also
lies within South East Asia’s major typhoon belts and landslides are also common in
mountain districts. The Philippines consist of about 7000 islands, and it is 25% bigger
than the UK. It has a massive population of 91 million people (2007) and its GDP per
capita in 2006 was $5000, a middle-income country. Typhoone are the main hazard,
they have averagly 20 per year. Volcanic er

Mt Pinitabu – June 15th 1991. The biggest eruption in over 50 years. It showed signs of
eruption form April 1991 (steam/earthquakes) therefore a 30km exclusion zones were
set up. 200,000 people were evacuated by the first eruption (12 June). The second
eruption was cataclysmic, a dome the size of the volcano collapsed, and there was a
massive pyroclastic blast causing lahars. Effective monitoring reduced the death and
injry toll to just over 4300 people. 350 of those people died. Some evacuees also died in
camps exposed to disease. 80,000 hectares of farmland were buried beneath ash,
disrupting the livelihoods of 500,000 farmers and their family. Economic losses were
$710 million, mainly in agriculture. 5000 tones of SO2 was released, meaning that it
contributed significantly to global warming.

California – Lies on the San Andreas fault, where the Pacific and North American plate
which is a conservative plate. Also California is subject to severe climatic patterns,
particularly El Nino. This causes occasional fires and droughts because of hot weathers,
and at other times floods and land slides.

1989 Earthquake – Date and Time – 5.04pm, 17th October 1989. Magnitude 7.1, also 5.2
aftershock. 63 people died and 14,000 were injured. Just over 1000 homes were
destroyed and over 23,000 damged. 366 businesses were destroyed and 3530 damaged.
The cost of the damage was US$6 billion.
1994 Earthquake – Date and Time – 4.31am, 17th January 1994. Magnitude 6.7 and
thousands of aftershocks from 4.0-5.0. 12500 buildings were damaged, and 9000 homes
and businesses were without electricity for several days . 48,500 people were without
water.

Philippines California coast

Status Lower-middle income
country
Population 91 million (huge amount –
vulnerable)
GDP per capita $5000
Landscape Mountainous country with
crowded coastal lowlands.
Consists of 7,000 islands,
many very small, spread
over latitudes between 5
degrees North and 20
Degrees north, meaning it
is far enough above the
equator for the Coriolis
effect to take place.
Summary Classic hotspot where
typhoon belt interacts with
mobile plate boundary in a
rapidly developing country;
El Nino/La Nina cycles
increase range of hazards
Wealthiest state of the USA
40 million (also vulnerable,
but not as serious)
$40,000
Coastal area contains the
huge conurbations of Los
Angeles, San Francisco and
San Diego
Elongated area ranging
from subtropical in north to
tropical in south’ major
tectonic hotspot which is
also subject to extreme
weather hazards brought
by El Nino.

Climate Change and its Causes

Describe trends in global climate, both long and short term