University of Dhaka

IMPACT OF LOAD SHEDDING IN

DHAKA CITY

Submitted by

Md. Shakil Ahmed 3-09-16-041

Sourov Mutsuddi 3-08-14-053
Romena Parveen 3-09-16-012
Amit Debnath 3-09-16-044
Nahid Rijwan 3-09-17-033

Under the Supervision of

Professor Dr. Shaker Ahmed

__________________________________________________
 Submitted: 8th August’ 2010

Letter of transmittal
Table of contents
List of tables
List of figure
 Ch-1: Introduction
1.1 Background:

Load shedding is the term used to describe the deliberate switching off
of electrical supply to parts of the electricity network, and hence to the
customers in those areas. This practice is a core part of the emergency
management of all electricity networks.

Load shedding can be required when there is an imbalance between

electricity demand (customers’ usage) and electricity supply (the
ability of the electricity network to generate and transport the required
amount of electricity to meet this demand).

When there is a shortfall in the electricity supply, there can be a need

to reduce demand very quickly to an acceptable level, or risk the entire
electricity network becoming unstable and shutting down completely.
This is known as a “cascade” event, and can end in a total or
widespread network shutdown affecting very large areas of a country.
Load shedding normally happens in two ways:

Automatic Load Shedding: This is a result of concurrent failures of

major element(s) in the national grid (e.g. co-incidental generator or
key transmission line failures), resulting in protection schemes
initiating the automatic isolation of additional parts of the national grid,
to protect the entire grid from cascading to a total blackout. Automatic
load shedding always occurs on the transmission system level, with the
result being large amounts of electricity and large blocks of customers
taken off supply in a very short time. Typical load reduction amounts
can be in the order of 1000MW – 2000MW, affecting hundreds of
thousands of customers.

Manual (Selective) Load Shedding: This occurs where time is

available (typically up to 60mins) to make selective choices on what
customers are shed. Selective load shedding often occurs on the
distribution system level, and typically requires medium to small
amounts of electricity to be “shed” in a short time. Typical load
reduction amounts can be in the order of 50MW – 100MW, affecting
tens of thousands of customers at a time. If required, manual load
shedding can also occur at the sub-transmission level, resulting in large
blocks of customers being shed with little to no discrimination between
customer types. This situation is invoked when a large amount of
electricity (500MW – 2000MW) is required to be shed in a timeframe of
typically 1mins to 15mins, often under emergency conditions.

The priority assessment for selective load shedding is based on

guidelines which have been ratified by the Bangladesh Government &
BPDB.

As a guide, feeders that supply major hospitals, mental health care

institutions, remand centers, sewerage and water pumping stations,
industries requiring continuous supply, major public transport supplies,
and traffic lights at major intersections, airports and high rise buildings
will have a higher priority compared to feeders that have a
predominantly residential, commercial or other industrial customer
mix.

1.2: Literature Review

1.2.1: Electricity sector in Bangladesh

Bangladesh's energy infrastructure is quite small, insufficient and

poorly managed. The per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is
one of the lowest (136 kWh) in the world. Noncommercial energy
sources, such as wood, animal wastes, and crop residues, are
estimated to account for over half of the country's energy
consumption. Bangladesh has small reserves of oil and coal, but very
large natural gas resources. Commercial energy consumption is mostly
natural gas (around 66%), followed by oil, hydropower and coal.

Electricity is the major source of power for country's most of the

economic activities. Bangladesh's installed electric generation capacity
was 4.7 GW in 2009; only three-fourth of which is considered to be
‘available’. Only 40% of the population has access to electricity with a
per capita availability of 136 kWh per annum. Problems in the
Bangladesh's electric power sector include corruption in administration,
high system losses, and delays in completion of new plants, low plant
efficiencies, erratic power supply, electricity theft, blackouts, and
shortages of funds for power plant maintenance. Overall, the country's
generation plants have been unable to meet system demand over the
past decade.

In generating and distributing electricity, the failure to adequately

manage the load leads to extensive load shedding which results in
severe disruption in the industrial production and other economic
activities. A recent survey reveals that power outages result in a loss of
industrial output worth $1 billion a year which reduces the GDP growth
by about half a percentage point in Bangladesh. A major hurdle in
efficiently delivering power is caused by the inefficient distribution
system. It is estimated that the total transmission and distribution
losses in Bangladesh amount to one-third of the total generation, the
value of which is equal to US $247 million per year.

Renewable Energy: Bangladesh has 15 MW solar energy capacities

through rural households and 1.9 MW wind power in Kutubdia and Feni.
Bangladesh has planned to increase renewable energy 450 MW by
2015 and 1600 MW by 2020.

Recent Plans: The Ministry of Power and Energy has been mobilizing
Tk 40,000 crore ($5.88 billion) to generate 5,000 MW of electricity to
reduce load shedding into a tolerable level within next four and half
years during the term of the present government. Under the plan, the
Power Development Board (PDB) would produce 500 MW gas-fired
electricity between July and December, 2009 to over come load
shedding within December. The PDB would hire furnace-oil based
1,000MW of electricity from private sector from January to June 2010,
the plan said. In 2011, the government would install furnace-oil based
800 MW capacity of power plant. The PDB officials would seek suitable
place to establish the plant, a senior official of the PDB said. Besides
the government would also hire another diesel or furnace oil based
power plant having capacity of 700 MW in 2012 to keep load shedding
into mild level, the official said. However, the government also
contemplates to establish four coal-fired based power plants with
capacity of producing 500 MW of electricity each with public and
private partnership (PPP) in Rajshahi and Chittagong region. The
government has initially tried to create fund of Tk 6,000 crore to
implement the plan, sources said. The power division has tried to
utilize the government's budgetary allocation of Tk. 2000 crore for PPP
in this regard, sources added. "If we can create the fund of Tk. 6,000
crore, it would be possible also to mobilize Tk 40,000 crore under PPP
to produce 5,000 MW f electricity within four and half years," PDB
chairman ASM Alamgir Kabir told the New Nation on June 29, 2010.
During the meeting, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina permitted the power
division to implement the PDB plan to reduce load shedding up to a
tolerable level.

Nuclear Power Plant: Bangladesh plans to set up the 1,000 MW

power plant at Rooppur, 200 km (125 miles) northwest of the capital
Dhaka, by 2011.

1.2.2: Load Shedding Situation at Present in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is facing huge load shedding of electricity. Almost all part

of Dhaka having load shedding of electricity everyday at least four
to eight hours everyday. In Karwan Bazar, power disruption occurred
five times with more than five hours of outage between 8:00am and
5:00pm and in 24 hours almost eight to nine hours. Multiple power cuts
for periods totaling six to seven hours occurred in Eskaton Garden,
Dhanmondi, Kalabagan, Moghbazar, Khilgaon, Goran, Shahjahanpur,
Mohammadpur, Banani, Uttara and other places.

Every summer Bangladesh face huge load shedding problem.

According to the official statistics, the country’s electricity shortage
gone up 1000 megawatts (MW) to 1259 MW with the demand of 4806
MW on 2009. Authority said this year (2010) about 1400 MW to 1800
MW electricity shortage will face this year, which is almost twice more
than last year and the country need about 5000 MW. So this summer
we might face the problem that’s we have not face last ten years. In
Bangladesh electricity power is not generate as much as our demand.
So every summer we face huge load shedding and people are
suffering, but in winter there is almost not load shedding. In summer
temperatures goes up to around 40° Celsius. So in this situation if
there is load-shedding of electricity people face uncertain condition.

Power Development Board (PDB) sources said while the official power
demand was just 5000MW, the unofficial demand was hovering around
6000 MW. The officially estimated power demand is 5000 MW against a
generation of around 3500 MW. Around 1500 MW power could not be
generated due to short supply of gas to many power plants. Gas is a
major concern also because several new gas-fired power plants with
nearly 1000 MW generation capacity are expected to be drafted into
service this year. “We are expecting 200MW new power generation
from May. If we cannot ensure the gas supplies, it will become
meaningless” PDB pointed out.

A PDB official said the real power situation was worse than the official
picture. “The Rural Electrification Board (REB) needs 2500 MW, but is
given less than half of that. Dhaka Electricity Supply Authority (DESA)
and Dhaka Electric Supply Company (DESCO) need more than 2000
MW power and the PDB needs another 2000 MW,”

CH-2: OBJECTIVES & METHODOLOGY

2.1 Objectives:

The overall objective of the research is to collect socio-economic data from

the selected areas in order to use them in and impact studies. The objectives
to be concerned are as follows:

1. Whether there is any electricity outage, and the frequency of the

problem.

2. Problems faced by general peoples due to load shedding.

3. How the peoples are tackling the power shortage problem in their day
to day lives.

4. How is their perception on government’s role regarding the load

shedding issue?

5. Suggestions.
These specific objectives of the survey will be to collect data relating to the
following variables:

1. Age
2. Gender
3. Income level
4. Occupation

Methodology:

1. Research type – Exploratory Research

2. Population size – People of Dhaka City
3. Sample size – 100 People
4. Sampling technique – Multistage Stratified Random Sampling
5. Nature of data collection – Primary data
6. Data collection instrument – Questionnaire
7. Data processing instrument – EXCEL

Research Method:

A descriptive research approach will be used to conduct the study. We

will use the survey method and secondary data.

Sources of Data:

1. Primary Data

2. Secondary Data

Primary Data: We will collect our primary data to figure out the main
reasons and public’s reaction about load shedding and power crisis in
Bangladesh by conducting a survey on 100 general people. To do that
survey first we have to prepare some questions and some suitable
answers against each question. Then we have to pretest that
questionnaire out side of the sample.

After that we will go out for general people to conduct our survey. The
businessmen, shopkeepers, doctors, teachers, retired peoples,
servants, housewives and students will be participating in our survey.
Secondary Data: We will collect our primary data from the
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Power Development
Board (BPDB), and from internet. However, bulk of the data will be
collected from primary sources.

Study Area:

As the survey is conducted in a colony within Dhaka city, first a small

colony area was selected randomly. The Rampura Television Center
area was chosen to conduct the survey.

Sample Size:

Sample Size is predefined by our teacher Dr. Shaker Ahmed, and it is

100.

The research survey was conducted in two different types of

respondents one is the household and the other is small enterprises. So
the stratified random sampling was chosen in selecting sample. The
total number of sample was divided into two equal parts. One is the
household respondents and the other is small enterprise respondents.
The sampling table is as follows:

Type of Sample Number of Sample

Household Respondents 50

Small Enterprise Respondents 50

Instruments to be used:

Data will be collected using questionnaire. The questionnaire will first

be pretested out side the sample area and then it will be administered
in the test area.

Implementation:

The following activities will be performed by Team Members in 3

phases:

 Data collection
 Data processing
  Report writing

Ch-3: Results and Analysis

1. Frequency Distribution of Age

Age Frequenc
(yrs) y %

15-20 5 5%

20-25 43 43%

25-30 16 16%

Above 36 36%
 30

Total 100 100%

2. Frequency Distribution of Gender

Frequen
Gender cy %

Male 62 62%

Female 38 38%

Total 100 100%

3. Distribution of Occupation

Occupati Freque
on ncy %

Business
man 47 47%

Job Holder 12 12%

Labor 0 0

Household 21 21%

Students 20 20%

Others 0 0

Total 100 100%

4. Distribution of Income

Income Level
(BDT) Frequency

Below 3000 06

3000-8000 17

8000-15000 26

15000-25000 42

Above 25000 09
Total 100

5. Duration of Load Shedding

Frequen
Duration cy %

Below 2
Hrs 11

2 Hrs-4
Hrs 13

4Hrs-8
Hrs 58

Above 8
Hrs 18

6. Occurrence of Load Shedding Period

Period Frequency %

Day Time 46

Night Time 54
7. Affected Activity

Activity Frequency %

Household
Work 37

Study 46

Business
Activity 64

Family
Recreation 13

Daily Rest &

Sleep 37

Others 03
8. If adopted alternative measure

Alternative frequency %

Measure Taken 55

Measure not
Taken 45

9. Alternative Type

Type Frequency %

Generator 11

I.P.S / U.P.S 27

Rental Power 17
10. Extra cost paid for alternative (As percentage of total cost of
electricity)

Extra Cost Frequency

5-10% 22

10-15% 8

15-20% 16

20-25% 9

11. How respondents think they could reduce the loss of electricity
at personal level

Frequenc
Ways to reduce loss y %

Using energy saving equipments 48

Reducing wrong use 62

Adopting renewable source of electricity 32

Others 05
13. Does technical & administrative losses are the main reason for
recent power crisis?

Opinion frequency %

Yes 81

No 19

14. People’s perception on govt.’s role to meet up the load shedding

problem

perception frequency %

Highly satisfied 0
 Satisfied 0

Neutral 4

Dissatisfied 37

Highly
dissatisfied 59

15. Age Gender Cross-Table

Gender Group

Male Female Total

15-20 4 1 5

20-25 26 17 43

Age 25-30 10 6 16
Group

30 above 22 14 36

Total 62 38 100

17. Type of Alternative - Adopted for alternative Cross-Table

Adopted for Alternative Total

Yes No

Generator 11 - 11

Type of IPS / UPS 27 - 27

Alternative
Rental 17 - 17
 Electricity

Others 0 - 0

Need
Alternative - 29 29

Do not Need - 16 16

Total 55 45 100

18. Alternative type – income level cross table

Alternative Type

Not
Using
Alternat
ive
Generat IPS/UP Rental
or S Power Total

Below 3000 0 0 0 6 6

3000-8000 0 2 5 10 17

8000-15000 0 3 4 19 26
Income
level 15000-
25000 3 21 8 10 42

Above
25000 8 1 0 0 9

Total 11 27 17 45 100
 Ch-4: Conclusion & Recommendation

Even though due to number of reasons and limitations of this study,

may not be considered accurate and effective in its result.
But there are still number of suggestions that can be given under this
study.
Study shows there are many people who came under alternative power
supply to run their days work and economic activity. And many people
want to adopt alternate power source, but due to their higher cost,
peoples of all income level can not reach for alternatives.
And general peoples are not satisfied with govt.’s role regarding this
load shedding issue. Therefore government should take steps in this
direction to facilitate the users.
References:
1. Solving the energy crisis: Salman F Rahman and Forrest Cookson
2. Maximizing Growth for Bangladesh: A Private Sector Vision, Ifty
Islam, Asian Tiger Capital Partners
3. Power Crisis: Issues and Challenges Md. Mizanur Rahman,
Energybangla.com
4. Bangladesh Power System Master Plan Review, Engr Khondkar
Abdus Saleque, Feb 2009, Enerybangla.com