Polish energy interest

between Berlin, Moscow and Brussels

International Energy Law

Conference Poznań 1 April 2011

Andrzej Szczęśniak Centrum Analiz NaftaGaz.pl

Europe – national energy markets

Big EU markets comparison


Market / Germany France UK Poland
 source
 Oil 34% 33% 35% 21%
 Gas 23% 14% 37% 12%

Coal 25% 5% 17% 61%

Nuclear 12% 42% 10% 0%

Renewales 4% 7% 1% 6%

Energy mix - decided by the member state
But: targets??? Sustainable development

s. 2 Andrzej Szczęśniak Polish energy interest between Berlin, Moskow and Brussels 1 kwietnia 2011
United Kingdom – energy

s. 3 Andrzej Szczęśniak Polish energy interest between Berlin, Moskow and Brussels 1 kwietnia 2011
United Kingdom – energy (2)

UK – pattern of strategy decisions

XIX century – industrial development – energy source = coal
80-ties of XX c. = coal
90-ties until now = energy source = natural gas – Kyoto
Protocol
Accordingly to supply... domestic supply
Now: nuclear or renewables? - zero emissions economy
Technology constrains, communities fears
A look at China?

s. 4 Andrzej Szczęśniak Polish energy interest between Berlin, Moskow and Brussels 1 kwietnia 2011
USA vs Russia (contrary to Europe)

USA – self-sufficiency – coal,gas, crude import, no

Russia energy cooperation
EU- Russia ties = danger for NATO

Rivalry in Central Asia

success – Azerbaigan - Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
failure – Central Asia

Gas supply security – global market LNG, shale gas

Containment of new EU-Russia infrastructure

(pipelines) from 80-ties

s. 5 Andrzej Szczęśniak Polish energy interest between Berlin, Moskow and Brussels 1 kwietnia 2011
Europa on Russia (contrary to US)

EU – short of energy sources, large importer

Longterm contracts – base of supply security
Stability of prices
Huge infrastructure investments
EU and Russia – dependence? No, interdependence
Strategy: common trade and investments area
Brussels vs. member states
Successful in trade, investments and sources access

s. 6 Andrzej Szczęśniak Polish energy interest between Berlin, Moskow and Brussels 1 kwietnia 2011
 EU
energy
policy

styczeń 2011 Bezpieczeństwo energetyczne - wykład 3 Akademia Dyplomatyczna 7

Gaz dla Europy

s. 8 Andrzej Szczęśniak Polish energy interest between Berlin, Moskow and Brussels 1 kwietnia 2011
Russia – Germany

Germany – Russia - special partners? rather strategic partnership

Russia – political stability (vs. Ukraine)
Germany – energy hub of Europe
Economy as cooperation area: Opel, shipyards, technologies
German: Russia? Democratisation through modernisation

Access to sources
 BASF Wintershall - JużnoRusskoje field 600
mld m3 (25% shares, 35% producton) – 25
mld m3/rok 2008, start XII 2007r.
 E.ON Ruhrgas: Urengoy, energy aquisitions,
JużnoRusskoje (25% za 2,93% Gazprom's
shares

s. 9 Andrzej Szczęśniak Polish energy interest between Berlin, Moskow and Brussels 1 kwietnia 2011
Jużnosrusskoje

s. 10 Andrzej Szczęśniak Polish energy interest between Berlin, Moskow and Brussels 1 kwietnia 2011
Russian diversification strategy of sale
markets and transit routes = profits of
7 billion $ per annum (Lukoil's info)
E.ON – co z rosyjskim gazem?

s. 12 Andrzej Szczęśniak Polish energy interest between Berlin, Moskow and Brussels 1 kwietnia 2011
 Polish

dillema

Coal
is:
Not expensive
domestic
safe
will be:
costly
not needed

s. 13 Andrzej Szczęśniak Polish energy interest between Berlin, Moskow and Brussels 1 kwietnia 2011