Raffi Kazanjian 2) moving average MGMT 306 15+20+18+22+20 4/12/2012 5 Homework #2 2.National Scan Inc.

, sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows: Month Sales (000 Units) February 19 19 March 18 36 April 15 45 May 20 80 June 18 90 July 22 132 August 20 140 t=7 - 49 132 542 a) Plot a monthly data on a sheet of paper. 25 3) Exponential smoothing of 19(000) Month February March April May June July August

4)NAVE APPROACH July August Septmeber 22

20 19 15 20 18 15 10 18

20

5)weighted average using . September = .60(20) + .30

C) which seems most reasn I believe that the Weighte forecasting September sale low trend with the last two

D) Sales are actual transaction

0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

b) Forecast September sales volume using each of the following: 1) Linear trend 7(542) - 7(132)= 9.76 7(49) - 7(7) 132-9.76(7) = 7 9.1

thus, Ft=9.1+9.76t, forecast for September should be: 9.1+9.76(8) = 87.18

moving average 15+20+18+22+20

19

Exponential smoothing with constant equal to .20 assuuming a Marh forecast 19(000) Sales 19 18 15 20 18 22 20 FORECAST 19 19.2 21.2 20.36 19.16 33.2

19+.2(0) = 21.2-0.84 20.36-1.2 19.16-6.8 34-13.2 -13.2

NAVE APPROACH 22 20 18 -2

weighted average using .60 for august .30 for july and .10 june ptember = .60(20) + .30(22) + .10(18) = 20.4

which seems most reasnoble. believe that the Weighted Average mehod would be the best choice for recasting September sales. As seen on the plot in problem a, sales are in a highw trend with the last two months staying fairly high compared to previous

les are actual transaction that have been completed and are or have already received payment. Demand is amount neede

Demand is amount needed to supply.