Professional Documents
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Broad findings:
Convergence is conditional not absolute
Human capital is the most robust factor positively influencing growth
Presence of high skilled labour
Absence of low skilled labour
Innovation (insofar we can measure it) has a positive effect on regional
growth
Long term effect
Inputs (BERD, GERD)
Infrastructure influences growth only when human capital and innovation
are present.
By itself it does not impact growth
A necessary but not sufficient condition for growth
Agglomeration influences growth
Links between regional and aggregate
Where growth actually occurs is also critical:
Contributions to growth
Contribution to growth over the a given period (n, n+t):
Initial size of a given territory GDP share (n)
Its growth rate between (n, n+t)
Contributions of small and large regions to aggregate,
1995-2007
the fat tail is equally important -- if not more -- to aggregate growth
Contributions to growth by percentage of regions and
population share, OECD TL3
Policy conclusions
Average value looses meaning
The need for a differentiated approach
Context matters one size-fits all answer will not do
Place based polices in the new regional paradigm are well
equipped
Integrated approach diagnosis is critical where are the
synergies and complementarities
A match between bottom up and top down approach
Multilevel governance is key
Taxonomy National Benchmark
Initial level
GDP per capita
1995
75% nat.av
lagging quasi-lagging leading
growth rate
GDP per capita
1995-2005
nat.av
underperforming growing
National Benchmark: two dimensions
OECD Benchmark
A. Initial level of GDP
1) Above or below the country
2) Above or below the OECD
B. Growth in GDP per capita
3) Above or below the country
4) Above or below the OECD
Lagging growing Lagging underperforming
-- group 1 vs. -- group 4
-- group 5 vs. -- group 8
Descriptive Statistics
Growth in GDP pc
Growing
(above national average)
Underperforming
(below national average)
I
n
i
t
i
a
l
G
D
P
p
c
Lagging
(below 75%)
initial GDP pc = 8820 initial GDP pc = 9186
growth=2.45% growth=1.62%
Quasi-lagging
( above 75% and
below national average)
initial GDP pc = 19,326 Initial GDP pc = 18,399
growth=2.47% growth=1.95%
Leading
(above national average)
Initial GDP pc = 25,368 Initial GDP pc = 21,572
growth=2.7% growth=1.50%
Distribution and Contribution to Nat. Growth
Growth in GDP pc
Growing
(above national average)
Underperforming
(below national average)
I
n
i
t
i
a
l
G
D
P
p
c
Lagging
(below 75%)
37 regions (11%) 15 regions (5%)
contribution to growth = 4% contribution to growth = 1%
Quasi-lagging
( above 75% and
below national average)
61 regions (19%) 103regions (32%)
contribution to growth = 21% contribution to growth = 17%
Leading
(above national average)
54 regions (17%) 55 regions (17%)
contribution to growth = 39% contribution to growth = 17%
Compare indicators relevant for regional growth b/w
growing and underperforming group in each of the
three stages of development..
The relative weight of these different factors depends,
inter alia, on the level of development of the region.
Initial GDP pc
<75% national av.
A
B
C
Parametric Analysis
TL2 regions split into three groups , period 1995-2007:
lagging (52)
quasi-lagging (164)
leading (109)
Two different model specifications
Pooled regression
Panel regression
Model specification
Test 6 models
Regressions Results for Lagging Regions
There is no conditional convergence in lagging region
Human capital has a robust positive impact on growth.
Infrastructure does not have any causal link in one model by itself
it does have an impact on the growth but effects vanishes once
other variables are introduced.
Gains in population density do not appear to positively influence
growth
Regressions Results for Quasi-lagging Regions
There is conditional convergence.
Infrastructure gains influence regional growth by itself and when
other variables are introduced in the model suggesting the benefits
of an integrated approach are present among quasi-lagging regions.
Human capital both a lower proportion the of workers with only
primary attainment rates and the presence of workers with tertiary
attainment rates has a robust impact on growth.
Mobilisation of the labour force and population density also bring
growth,
Business R&D and government R&D expenditures have a positive
effect on growth
Regressions Results for Leading Regions
Conditional convergence -- weaker in quasi-lagging regions
The effects of infrastructure are mixed:
they are positive in four models and depend on human capital and ER.
in two models (model 3 & 4 in panel specification) positive results are reversed.
Human capital has a robust positive impact on growth.
Mobilisation of the labour force suggests that regions with lower
rates of employment can generate more growth.
Innovation related activities have an impact on the growth of
leading regions.
Business R&D expenditure has a positive impact as well as government R&D
expenditures.
the effects of patent intensity are mixed in the pooled specification they are
negative and in the panel specification they are positive.
Phase 3 Case Studies
Deeper understanding of economic processes
Role of elements difficult to quantify
Representative sample -- select among:
Lagging and growing
Lagging and underperforming
Quasilagging and growing
Quasilagging and underperforming
reg_code region cat status
Poland PL31 LUBELSKI E 4 done
PL34 PODLASKI E 4 done
PL41 WI ELKOPOLSKI E 3 done
SK04 VYCHODNE SLOVENSKO 4 done
HU21 KOSEP-DUNANTUL/CENTRAL TRANSDANUBI A 3 done
UK UKC NORTH EAST 4 done
UKD NORTH WEST (i ncl udi ng Merseysi de) 4 done
UKE YORKSHI RE AND HUMBERSI DE 4 done
US23 Mi chi gan 4 confirmed
US39 Pennsyl vani a 4 confirmed
US36 Ohi o 4 confirmed
US34 North Carol i na 3 confirmed
Mexico ME07 CHI APAS 2 current
ME24 SAN LUI S POTOSI 1 current
ME10 DURANGO 3 current
ME14 JALI SCO 3 current
ME15 MEXI CO 4 current
ME32 ZACATECAS 2 current
EU NL04 ZUI D-NEDERLAND 3 maybe
DEE SACHSEN-ANHALT 1 done
DE4 BRANDENBURG 1 confirmed
FR30 NORD-PAS-DE-CALAI S 4 confirmed
FR62 MI DI -PYRENEES 3 confirmed
FR61 AQUI TAI NE 3 confirmed
ES 43 EXTRREMADURA 1 maybe
ES12 ASTURI AS 3 done
I TG1 SI CI LI A 2 done
I TE3 MARCHE 4 done
total cases 28
growi ng group 9 9
l aggi ng group 12 12
Categories
1 Lagging Growing
2 Lagging Underperforming
3 Quasi-lagging growing
4 Quasi-lagging underperforming
Phase Period Activites
Initiation Month 1. June - Letter of agreement signed
- Questionnaire send
Questionnaire and
preliminary analysis of
6 regions
Month 1. June - Local team coordinates responses for
preparing the background report.
- OECD receives questionnaires one week
before the mission trip studies.
Study missions Month 2. July - Review mission one week in Mexico by
OECD team in conjunction with local team
and other stakeholder to conduct
interviews with key actors involved in
regional development of each of the six
regions.
- During the week carry out a brief seminar
in Mexico presenting the main analytical
results from the first two phases of the
project.
Dissemination of
preliminary results and
submission to TDPC
Month 3. August - Sharing preliminary results of the 6 case
studies with the SEDESOL; feedback and
Report delivery.
- Presenting submitting case studies to the
TDPC.
Finalisation of report
and assembling policy
recommendations
Month 4 y 5.
September and
October
- Assembling manuscript of the overall
project and preparation of
recommendations.
- Sending for Spanish translation and
printing, selected parts of the manuscript.
Final Report Publication Month 6 y 7.
November and
December
- Official launching of the publication by the
OECD
Presentation of Final
Report in Mexico
Month 8 y 9.
January and
February
- Launching of an event in Mexico and
dissemination of Spanish publications
thank you
JoseEnrique.Garcilazo@oecd.org