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07/23/12
23 JULY 2012
Copying Not Permitted THE ELWAY POLL is intended for the exclusive use of its subscribers. The material contained herein may not be copied or disseminated without the written consent of Elway Research, Inc.
07/23/12
Sample Profile
405 registered voters, selected at random from registered voter lists in Washington state, were interviewed July 18-22, 2012 by live, professional interviewers. 12% of the interviews were conducted on cell phones. The margin of sampling error is 5% at the 95% level of confidence. This means, in theory, had this same survey been conducted 100 times, the results would be within 5% of the results reported here at least 95 times. REGION Seattle ....................................................................... 11% King County (outside Seattle) ........................................... 21% Pierce + Kitsap Counties ........................................... 14% North Puget Sound (Snohomish to Whatcom) .................... 17% Western WA (Clallam to Clark)......................................... 18% Eastern WA ............................................................... 19% GENDER Male........................................................................... 50% Female................................................................. ......50% PARTY IDENTIFICATION Democrat ............................................................ .......35% Republican ......................................................... .......27% Independent........................................................ .......38% VOTE HISTORY (LAST 4 ELECTIONS) 0-2 Votes Cast .......................................................... 46% 3 Votes Cast ........................................................... 19% 4 Votes Cast ........................................................... 35% AGE 18-35 .................................................................. .......12% 36-50 .................................................................. .......20% 51-64 .................................................................. .......42% 65+...................................................................... .......23% EMPLOYMENT Self-employed..................................................... .......11% Private Sector ..................................................... .......24% Public Sector ...................................................... .......14% Not Employed ..................................................... .......10% Retired ................................................................ .......38% INCOME $25,000 or less ................................................... .......12% $25 to $50,000.................................................... .......17% $50 to $75,000.................................................... .......21% Over $75,000...................................................... .......30% No Answer ........................................................... ......20%
Notable findings among voter categories: Inslee in Seattle (5724%), King County outside Seattle (4436%), PierceKitsap (3934%), the North Sound (4529%); McKenna led in Eastern Washington (4736%), and they were tied South and West of Puget Sound (42% each); Inslee opened a 4535% among women (from 4139% a month ago), and he led and 4138% among men, after having trailed McKenna among men 4045% last month; McKenna led among voters under 35 (4133%); Inslee led in all other age categories, including 4635% among voters 3564 and 4139% among voters over 65. This survey added two candidate attributes to those tested last month, and asked whether each was an advantage for either candidate: Inslee had alikeability advantage over McKenna in (34% to 27%); They were nearly even with regard to political philosophy (35% said that was an advantage for Inslee; 33% said McKenna). Voters last month gave McKenna an edge in ability to manage state government (33% vs. 27% for Inslee) and approach to improving the econ omy (3330%). Inslee had the advantage on health care (3528%), environmental issues (36 24%) and issues important to women (3522%). The candidates were essentially even on educa tion (31% Inslee; 30% McKenna). In summary, neither candidate has a perceived advantage on the critical issues of the economy, education nor political philosophy. McKenna has an edge when it comes to managing state govern ment. Inslee is seen as more likeable and better on several secondary issues. This race has a long way to go. WHICH CANDIDATE HAS AN ADVANTAGE IN...
McKENNA INSLEE
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Philosophy
33
-6
SMALL
-27
BIG
23
BIG
12
SMALL
35 34
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Likeability
27
-8
-19
22
12
Of course, all candidates have their strong points and weak points. I read some characteristics, regardless of how you intend to vote tell me whether you personally consider that to be an Big Advantage for McKenna, a Small Advantage for McKenna , a Big Advantage for Inslee or a Small Advantage for Inslee. If you think neither one has an advantage or the issue is not important, just say that. The first one is LikeabilityPolitical Philosophy.