Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Initiating Coverage
Assessment
Excellent fundamentals Superior fundamentals Good fundamentals Moderate fundamentals Poor fundamentals
Assessment
Strong upside (>25% from CMP) Upside (10-25% from CMP) Align (+-10% from CMP) Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP) Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)
Analyst Disclosure
Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias the grading recommendation of the company.
Disclaimer:
This Company-commissioned Report (Report) is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable by CRISIL (Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. The Data / Report are subject to change without any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this Report. Nothing in this Report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The Report is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold any securities of the Company. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability, whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this Report. This Report is for the personal information only of the authorized recipient in India only. This Report should not be reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person especially outside India or published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.
Polaris Software Limited TTK Prestige remains intact Business momentum Ltd
An unabated growth story
Fundamental Grade Valuation Grade Industry 4/5 (Strong fundamentals) 5/5 (Excellent fundamentals) 5/5 strong upside) 2/5 (CMP has downside) Information technology Household durables
CFV MATRIX
Excellent Fundamentals
TTK Prestige Ltd (TTK) is a leading, organised kitchen appliances manufacturing company with products catering to the entire kitchenware segment. Increasing urbanisation, growing number of nuclear families, rising disposable income and growing number of new gas connections are driving the demand for kitchenware appliances in India. TTK, with a strong brand, a wide distribution network, a strong product portfolio and robust financials is well positioned to tap this growth. We assign TTK a fundamental grade of 5/5, indicating that its fundamentals are excellent relative to other listed securities in India. A leading player with a strong brand and wide distribution network TTK is the only organised kitchen appliances company in India with a comprehensive product portfolio covering the entire kitchenware segment. It is particularly dominant in the pressure cooker and non-stick cookware categories where it commands a market share of ~40 - 44% in the organised space. Its brand Prestige has a strong consumer recall. A wide distribution network and a strong brand have helped TTK create a pan-India presence with south India comprising the biggest share (67% of revenues). Growth in kitchenware industry to complement TTKs strong position The branded kitchen appliances industry in India is expected to grow at a fast pace driven by rising disposable income, increasing urbanisation, increase in the number of new gas connections with the rise in the number of nuclear families, and increasing rural income leading to a shift towards branded products. TTK, being one of the leading players in the branded segment, is well poised to leverage the growth opportunities in this space. Preparing for the next level of growth through capacity expansion TTK is doubling its pressure cooker manufacturing capacity to 9.6 mn units and quadrupling its non-stick cookware capacity to 8 mn units by FY12. The company plans to invest Rs ~2,000 mn for putting up the capacities. Strong cash reserves and continuous cash generation will enable the company to fund the entire expansion plan through internal accruals and hence reduce the risk of equity dilution or increased gearing. Expect two-year revenue CAGR of 35%; two-year EPS CAGR of 32% We expect TTKs revenues to grow at a two-year CAGR of 35% to Rs 13.9 bn by FY13 driven by strong growth across all product segments. EBITDA margin is expected to remain stable at 16.0% in FY13 and EPS is estimated to grow at a two-year CAGR of 32% to Rs 129 in FY13 primarily driven by sales growth. Valuations the current price has downside We have used the discounted cash flow method to value TTK. We initiate our coverage with a valuation grade of 2/5 and a fair value of Rs 2,392 per share.
Fundamental Grade
5 4 3 2 1
Poor Fundamentals
Valuation Grade
Strong Downside Strong Upside
13.8% 5.1% 6.3% 12.5% 5.8% 6.8% 12.4% 4.3% 8.4% 74.9% 74.9% 74.9%
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Dec-10 Promoter Mar-11 FII Jun-11 DII Sep-11 Others
74.9% 15.1% 2.0% 8.0%
KEY FORECAST
(Rs mn) Operating income EBITDA Adj Net income Adj EPS-Rs EPS growth (%) Dividend Yield (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%) PE (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY09 4,019 394 224 19.7 29.5 0.2 32.5 29.2 141.2 37.3 80.5 FY10 5,077 780 483 42.6 115.9 0.4 64.1 46.3 65.4 25.4 40.0 FY11 7,641 1,267 841 74.2 74.0 0.4 76.4 53.3 37.6 16.5 24.3 FY12E 10,552 1,677 1,130 99.7 34.4 0.6 61.1 47.8 27.9 11.2 18.7 FY13E 13,867 2,212 1,467 129.4 29.7 0.8 57.2 43.1 21.5 7.9 13.7
ANALYTICAL CONTACT
Chetan Majithia (Head) Bhaskar Bukrediwala Yash Taneja Client servicing desk +91 22 3342 3561 clientservicing@crisil.com chetanmajithia@crisil.com bsbukrediwala@crisil.com ytaneja@crisil.com
NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current Market Price Source: Company, CRISIL Equities estimate CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.
CRISIL EQUITIES | 1
Cooking pan
Mixer grinders, rice cookers, ovens, juicers, induction cook top and others
Gas stoves
Dominant in south India with increasing presence in western, northern and eastern India Leading player in the organised space with 43-44% market by Hawkins. Market leader in the organised space with 40% Highly fragmented market with numerous unorganised players. In the branded category in electrical space, Bajaj Electricals is the largest player in the North and Preethi (Maya Appliances and now owned by Philips) in the South. In gas stove category, Sunflame is the largest in the North and Butterfly the largest in the South.
Kitchen appliances industry is growing at a steady pace of 10-11% in the non-electrical segment and 15% in the electrical segment. The branded space is expected to grow at a much higher rate driven by the rising disposable income and increasing urbanisation leading to a shift towards branded products, and increasing preferences for lifestyle products from the young demographic population of India.
Sales growth (FY08-FY11 3-yr CAGR) Sales forecast (FY11-FY13 2-yr CAGR) Demand drivers
19% 31%
42% 54%
60% 43%
32% 16%
Rising disposable income and increasing urbanisation resulting in shift from unorganised to organised players. This is also expected to lead to higher demand for lifestyle products Demand for pressure cookers and other appliances will be driven by increasing penetration of gas connection. Only 50% of the estimated 225 mn households in India has gas connection; the government has a target to provide gas connections to 55 mn more households by 2015 Increasing number of nuclear families will see a consequent rise in the number of kitchens which will drive growth in the kitchen appliances industry
Key competitors
Hawkins, Butterfly
Hawkins, Butterfly
Butterfly, Sunflame
Key risks
Competition from new players entering into the market including foreign brands Rising raw material prices Higher inflation impacting consumer spending Labour intensive operation
* The company also has a small presence in other kitchen appliances like knives, kitchen tools and others which contribute 2-3% to overall revenue Source: Company, CRISIL Research
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TTK transformed itself from a mere outer-lid pressure cooker maker to a complete kitchen solution provider
Kitchen Electricals 9%
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Northern India 9%
Exports 3%
Able
to
create
strong
TTK has been able to pass on rise in raw material cost due to strong consumer preference for its brand
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53%
52%
52.5%
51%
TTK spends ~7% of sales on advertisements in order to create brand awareness in non-traditional market
continuously spending on advertisements, with spends averaging around 7% of sales. In contrast, Hawkins spends only 3-4% of its sales while Bajaj Electricals spends merely 1.3-1.5% of its sales on advertisements. We believe higher spending on advertising and brand building augurs well for TTK, considering it is eyeing to penetrate into the competitive the northern and north eastern markets (dominated by Hawkins in pressure cooker, Sunflame in LPG stove and Bajaj Electricals and Philips in kitchen electrical appliances).
7.7%
7.1%
FY08 17% 1%
3.8% 3.9% 3.3% 1.3% FY11
3% 22%
3.9%
FY07
13% 5% 9% 26% 9%
1.3% FY09
1.5% FY10
FY06
0%
50%
200%
250%
Pressure Cookers
Kitchen Electricals
CRISIL EQUITIES | 5
Rising disposable income and increasing urbanisation resulting in shift in preference for the organised market
Over the years, the Indian kitchen appliances industry has been experiencing a rapid shift in preference from the unorganised to organised branded players. Rising disposable income and increasing urbanisation have led to this shift due to which players like TTK, Hawkins, and Gandhimathi Appliances have shown strong growth in the past five years. Given the rising urban population and growth in disposable income, we do not see this trend to reverse over the next decade.
Rising
disposable
income
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400 300 200 100 0 1991 Total population (mn) Total urban population (%) 856 26 2001 1,040 28 2008 1,155 30 2030 1,470 40 220 290 590 340
54
69
8.3
72.0
Gandhimathi
Today, the organised branded players account for ~60% of the pressure cooker market, whereas the non-stick cookware and kitchen electrical appliances market is still dominated by the regional and unorganised players. But over the years, we expect the non-stick cookware and electrical appliances category will also see a shift from unorganised to organised players.
Only 50% households with gas connection room for further penetration
With 115 mn gas connections and 225 mn estimated households in India, there is still a lot of room for further expansion. The lower penetration and the Government of Indias (GoI) target to provide gas connection to another 55 mn households by 2015 pave the road for future growth especially for the pressure cooker and gas stoves category.
GoI target to provide new 55 mn gas connections by 2015 to boost demand and for gas pressure stoves cooker
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6%
7%
5%
20,000 -
1.5 2% of joint families in India nuclear which are is the giving rise to families annually, of
subsequently number
increasing
family kitchens
farm
income
is
Young demographic profile of India is leading to higher demand for branded and lifestyle products
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1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 357 435 540 636 873 22% 24% 18% 45% 37%
76%
500
1,540 FY11
10% 0%
0
Changes in tax structure bridged the gap between organised and unorganised players
Prior to FY04, the excise duty on manufacturing of pressure cookers was 16%. This coupled with the states sales tax and octroi hindered the organised players from competing with the unorganised players who were able to play on lower pricing. However, the change in tax structure by the government (current excise duty is 5%) has bridged the pricing gap and led to a shift in the market from the unorganised to organised players. We further believe that with the introduction of goods and services tax, the gap will be further narrowed and will lead to faster penetration by organised players like TTK.
Reduction in excise duty on pressure cooker levelled the field between organised and unorganised players
20%
17%
15%
10%
2%
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TTK strategy to sell through multiple distribution channel eliminate dependency the on risk any of one
particular channel
TTKs revenue through its exclusive 36% retail outlet growing at a 5-year CAGR of
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174
Meeting
changing
demands of the consumer through continuous focus on launching of new products / variants
Regular launches of new and innovative products / variants encashing the brand
TTK has been successful in encashing its strong brand pull, by continuously launching new products/variants in the past few years. The company entered the inner-lid pressure cooker segment to penetrate the northern and northeastern markets (where the product is popular) through the launch of Prestige Nakshatra range of inner-lid pressure cookers in the regular and handi varieties. It further widened its offering through the Prestige Apple range of small inner-lid pressure cookers with 3 litre capacity in various vibrant colours targeting the younger urban families to meet the requirements of their modern kitchens and also for aesthetic appeal. Similarly, it is continuously upgrading its Prestige Omega range of cookware products and introducing new products in the kitchen electrical appliances category. The introduction of induction cook top for the urban market became a hit in the rural market as well due to nonavailability of gas connection and increasing availability of power. Better margins in these new life-style products compared to the traditional stainless steel pressure cooker range have also led to improvements in overall margins of the company. Further, the management is planning to enter into manufacturing and marketing of ultra-premium category of pressure cookers which will further boost the higher margins being achieved in the past few years.
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TTKs creating
exchanges
and
% of sales (RHS)
Strong
cash
generation
from the operation enables TTK to fund majority of its expansion plan through internal accruals
(Uttarakhand) plants, is also putting up greenfield capacities in Gujarat and Maharashtra for manufacturing non-stick cookware including hard anodised
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58%
500 400 300 200 100 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 200 29 511 463 751 821 1%
5%
0%
-5%
Pressure Cookers
Non-stick Cookware
model
for
Real estate - non-core operation with one-time cash flow and annual lease rentals
TTK has decided to develop the surplus land of its oldest factory in Bangalore; the sale of the residential portion of the project is expected to yield a one-time cash flow of Rs 650 mn in FY15 while the leasing of commercial space will lead to annual rental cash flows of Rs 70 mn from FY15. The company has handed over development of 6.5 acre of surplus land at Dooravaninagar (near Whitefield), Bangalore to Rajmata Realtors (Salarpuria group company) for developing an office cum residential complex (60% commercial and 40% residential). The project has received all the necessary approvals and
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brand
and
competition remain the key concerns in this industry. Besides competition from unorganised players, TTK also faces competition from organised players given the strong growth expected in the industry. However, we believe that a player with a strong brand, a wide range of product portfolio, a strong distribution network, wider market penetration and better financial muscle will be able to cope with such a competition. With TTK scoring ahead of its competitors in all the parameters, we do not see competitive pressure as a major risk to growth.
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Rising impact
inflation
may
Kitchen
appliance
is
instrumental in maintaining a cordial relationship with the factory workforce and has not seen any major dispute over the last six-seven years. Besides its major expansion plans are less labour intensive due to more mechanisation. Hence we do not see this as a major risk to the company.
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Revenue growth is driven by strong volume growth across category the product
20%
25%
25%
38%
37%
Revenue
better
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2,000
1,500
1,000
12.9%
11.4%
PAT to grow at a two-year CAGR of ~32%, EPS to increase from Rs 74 in FY11 to Rs 129 in FY13
PAT is expected to grow at a two-year CAGR of 32.1% to Rs 1.5 bn in FY13, primarily driven by strong growth in revenues and stable margins. PAT margin is expected to remain stable at 10.5-11% over the next two years. EPS is expected to grow in-line with PAT from Rs 74 in FY11 to Rs 129 in FY13.
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RoE
to
remain
healthy
RoE to decline due to capex; however, will remain strong above 40%
TTKs RoE and RoCE increased significantly from 29% and 32% in FY09 to 53% and 76%, respectively, in FY11 driven by substantial improvement in margins and an increase in asset turnover. However with the ongoing capex of Rs 2,000 mn, the asset turnover is expected to decline thereby leading to a fall in RoE and RoCE at 43.1% and 57.2% in FY13 respectively, though still at healthy levels.
57.2%
13.8 11.5
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
low
Working capital days decline to 12 days in FY11 from 90 days in FY06
TTKs efficient working capital management (working capital days declined from 90 days in FY06 to 40 days in FY09 to 12 days in FY11) has led the company to become virtually debt-free given minimal requirements of funds for working capital. This coupled with strong revenue growth, better management of overheads and eventually better margins has led to significant generation of cash. From a mere Rs 89 mn of cash generated (before any investments) in
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Gearing (RHS)
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TTK
has
an
experienced
Strong
and
experienced
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composition, typical board processes, disclosure standards and related-party transactions. Any qualifications by regulators or auditors also serve as useful inputs while assessing a companys corporate governance. Overall, corporate governance at TTK meets the requisite standard and is supported by reasonably good board practices and an independent board.
Board composition
The board comprises 10 members, of whom five are independent directors, which meets the requirements under Clause 49 of SEBIs listing guidelines. The board brings industry expertise as well as diversified technical and business experience.
Boards processes
The board's processes appear to be well structured, with all the committees audit, remuneration and investor grievance - in place, supporting good corporate governance practices and decision-making framework. The fact that audit committee and remuneration committee is chaired by an independent director speaks well of the good governance practices. The committee meets at timely and regular intervals. The board also includes well-known names like Mr R Srinivasan, who is currently on the board of companies such as Cholamandalam MS General Insurance Co. Ltd, Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd, Sundaram Fasteners Ltd. Mr. Arun K. Thiagarajan, another independent director, has held senior positions in ABB, Wipro and Hewlett-Packard.
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We initiate coverage on TTK with a valuation grade of 2/5, indicating that the current market price has downside to our fair value of Rs 2,392 per share. We have used the discounted cash flow (DCF) method and our fair value indicates an implied one year forward price-to-earning (PER) multiple of 18.5x FY13 EPS and one year forward enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple of 11.7x FY13 EBIDTA.
We initiate coverage on
TTK with a fair value of Rs 2,392 per share and valuation grade of 2/5
Sensitivity to valuation
We tested our valuation sensitivity on various key assumptions:
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Source: CRISIL Research estimates, Industry TTK Prestige currently trades at P/E multiple of 21.5x based on our FY13 EPS estimate, which indicates that the stock is trading at a premium over its direct competitors. Also based on our fair value of Rs 2,392 the implied PE multiple is 18.5x. We believe that the premium over its direct competitors is justified given its better wide product profile, strong distribution network, higher profitability margins, a strong balance sheet and a prudent management. Simultaneously, we have analysed valuation multiples of other consumption driven companies such as Jubilant Foodworks, IFB Industries, Page Industries Ltd, and others to get an insight of market sentiments on consumption driven thematic story. We found that these stocks are trading at a median FY13 P/E of 24.5x, which implies that TTK is trading at 12% discount to these companies. Also at our FV of Rs 2,392 the stock trades at 18.5x FY13 multiple which is a discount of ~25%. We believe TTKs valuation has limited scope for any further discount beyond this given the companys strong positioning kitchen appliance segment, its historical performance and positive business outlook.
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Feb-09
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-10
Dec-08
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Feb-11
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Aug-08
Aug-11 Aug-11
TTK Prestige
1x
8x
15x
22x
29x
EV
3x
10x
17x
24x
P/E movement
(Times) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -1 std dev +1 std dev
Feb-10
Feb-09
Dec-09
Dec-10
Feb-11
Dec-08
Aug-08
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Oct-08
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Apr-10
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Apr-08
Oct-11
Premium/Discount to NIFTY
Median PE
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Dec-11
Jun-10
Jun-08
Jun-09
Aug-10
Jun-11
Apr-10
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-11
Oct-09
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Key milestones
1955 1959 1984 1990 1994 1994 1995 1998 2000 2001 2003
Incorporated as a private limited company Commenced manufacturing of pressure cookers with technical collaboration from Prestige Group (UK)
Launched Prestige pressure pan Launched ready-to-eat snacks, fryums, in India Came out with an IPO Changed name from TT Limited to TTK Prestige Limited. Launched its products under the brand name Manttra in the US market Made an entry into the UK and Australian markets Company launched Prestige omega non-stick cookware Launched a new range of vacuum flasks with imported shells Recast its debt portfolio by converting majority of its borrowing into ECBs and FCNRB loans aggregating to US $9.5 mn Inaugurated the exclusive TTK Prestige showroom in Vijayawada Obtained license for Prestige brand for the use in USA, launched new product Prestige Nakshatra (Inner lid), pressure Handi, pressure kadai, duplex gas tables Introduced new range of Induction cook tops Launched Prestige Apple range of inner lid cookers, Prestige Micro chef microwave cookers, Inducted compatible base cookware Voted as Indias most trusted kitchen appliance brand by Brand Equity survey of Indias most trusted brands 2010 Envisaged capacity expansion of Rs 2,000 mn
2004 2005
2008-09 2009-10
2010 2011
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80,000 5% 60,000
6%
100,977
105,731
84,492
88,642
94,260
115,064
40,000 Pressure Cookers 39% Non-stick Cookware 20% 20,000 2005 2006 2007
2% 0%
2008
2009
2010
28%
600 6%
17% 200
TTKs PE movement
(Rs) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Aug-08
Aug-09
Aug-10
Dec-11
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Apr-11
Aug-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
TTK Prestige
1x
8x
15x
22x
29x
CRISIL EQUITIES | 27
Analytical Contacts
Tarun Bhatia Prasad Koparkar Chetan Majithia Jiju Vidyadharan Ajay D'Souza Ajay Srinivasan Sridhar C Manoj Mohta Sudhir Nair Director, Capital Markets Head, Industry & Customised Research Head, Equities Head, Funds & Fixed Income Research Head, Industry Research Head, Industry Research Head, Industry Research Head, Customised Research Head, Customised Research +91 (22) 3342 3226 +91 (22) 3342 3137 +91 (22) 3342 4148 +91 (22) 3342 8091 +91 (22) 3342 3567 +91 (22) 3342 3530 +91 (22) 3342 3546 +91 (22) 3342 3554 +91 (22) 3342 3526 tbhatia@crisil.com pkoparkar@crisil.com chetanmajithia@crisil.com jvidyadharan@crisil.com adsouza@crisil.com ajsrinivasan@crisil.com sridharc@crisil.com mmohta@crisil.com snair@crisil.com
Business Development
Vinaya Dongre Ashish Sethi Head, Industry & Customised Research Head, Capital Markets +91 (22) 33428025 +91 (22) 33428023 vdongre@crisil.com asethi@crisil.com
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