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June 2011
About EvaluatePharma
Since 1998 EvaluatePharma has been providing senior decision makers within the pharmaceutical industry with an essential service that models the sector from the viewpoint of the worlds financial markets. EvaluatePharmas forward looking view of the market is hugely influential as it displays the consensus of expectations, which influence company stock market valuations. The forecasts of equity analysts reveal their perspectives on individual company performance, industry trends and the macro economic environment. EvaluatePharma has captured the consensus forecasts of equity analysts and seamlessly integrated them with the historic results, as reported by companies. From this comprehensive view of the industry, its past and expected future performance emerges and can be analysed using EvaluatePharma. Analyses range from total market trends and therapeutic overviews to individual company performance and product progress. Whatever your view on the future of the industry, EvaluatePharma can help you find value in the pharma and biotech sector. To find out more about this report and EvaluatePharma services contact us: North America: Debbie Paul Tel: 1-617-573-9453 Email: debbiep@evaluatepharma.com Rest of the World: Will Hau Tel: +44 (0)20 7377 0800 Email: willh@evaluatepharma.com
June 2011
EvaluatePharma Foreword:
Last years edition of the World Preview highlighted that prescription drug sales were forecast to increase by 2.9% per year between 2010 and 2016. In this edition, we can report an upward revision in growth to 4.0% per year between 2010 and 2016. The uplift can be attributed to an upward revision in consensus product forecasts (see page 19) due to favourable news events (page 26), the continuing weakness in the dollar vs. major currencies and a general improvement in sentiment over the last 12 months. Does this signal anything of substance? Despite the upward revision, prescription sales growth is still forecast to lag world economic growth, predicted by the IMF to be 4.4% per year over 2011 and 2012. Underlying this is a two speed world, with developed economies growing at 2.4% and emerging economies growing at 6.5% per year over the period. In a business world increasingly obsessed with emerging markets, it is often overlooked that the ultimate prize for global majors is to sell innovative patented products to the wealthy sub-populations in emerging markets who can afford private healthcare and to convince governments to pay for patented products, rather than selling generic drugs listed on reimbursement lists. Struggling global majors may talk-up the Chinese market, but it cannot be viewed as a substitute for innovation. The shift in the pharmaceutical industrys focus from the dominant US market towards emerging markets is a symptom of patent expirations coupled with poor R&D productivity, rather than any fundamental economic weakness in the US market. GlaxoSmithKlines decline, to be outside of the worlds Top 5 biggest sellers of prescription medicines in 2010 (page 22), is a prime example. Its failure to replace ageing blockbusters has seen its US pharmaceutical sales decline from $19.1bn in 2006 to $11.8bn in 2010, despite spending more than $30bn on R&D over the same period. On R&D productivity, 2010 did register a bumper year for new drug approvals in the US in terms of quality. Despite the number of new drugs approved declining 24% in 2010 to 26, the quality of the approved products (based on US sales 5 years post-launch) more than doubled to $13.3bn (page 12), easily the best year since 2004 (when Avastin was approved). This years increase in quality, coupled with flat (declining in real terms) industry R&D investment over the last 3 years, is a positive step towards rebalancing R&D output to investment. The imbalance remains huge with the average Net Present Value (NPV) of new products averaging $70bn per year between 2008-10, versus R&D investment at $127bn per year. The Industry as a whole is not yet generating a return on R&D investment. Even if all R&D was successful it is unlikely governments would be capable of reimbursing all new products. It is telling that when Pfizer announced the removal of $1.5bn from its 2012 R&D spend, its stock price rose 5%. In an age of austerity who will be next to wield the axe to their R&D budget? In terms of patent expiries 2011 and 2012 are forecast to be the worst years, with $54bn of sales set to be lost. With small molecule patent expiries relatively priced-in and given a more balanced R&D output to investment, the financial markets may start to re-evaluate global majors as having a more positive long term growth prospect beyond the patent cliff. The analysis we present here is a snapshot of an evolving picture so please view it as such. But whatever the outlook, EvaluatePharma is there to help you find value in the pharma and biotech sector. Anthony Raeside, Head of Research
World Preview to 2016 June 2011
2016 forecasts for the top 50 products have increased by $21.7bn (+13% upgrade) since April 2010; Worldwide prescription drug sales total $853bn in 2016; Since April 2010 growth revised up from 2.9% to 4.0% (CAGR) over 2010 2016; Over $255bn of sales at risk from patent expirations in 2011-16; Humira world's largest selling product in 2016; Pfizer, Novartis and Sanofi competing for top spot in 2016; Biotech products fail to overtake small molecule sales within top 100 drugs by 2016; Global pharmaceutical R&D spend returns to growth in 2010 following unprecedented decline in 2009; still over investment; Pfizers 2016 R&D spend revised down by $1.2bn since April 2010; Anti-coagulants set to record highest growth of major therapy categories to 2016; Best year for NME approvals since 2004 as sales potential doubles; number of new drugs approved down 24%; GSK falls out of top 5 in 2010; first time since late 1980s; Teva continues to dominate generic drug market in 2010; Roches company value slumps in 2010 due to setbacks to Avastin and taspoglutide; Novo Nordisks share price soars in 2010 following series of positive events within anti-diabetic business
June 2011
Table of Contents
Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales (2002-16) Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2016: Top 20 Companies Worldwide Prescription & OTC Sales by Technology (2002-16) Top 20 Most Valuable R&D Projects (Ranked by Net Present Value) Worldwide R&D Spend by Pharma & Biotech Companies (2002-2016) Pharmaceutical R&D Spend in 2016: Top 20 Companies FDA New Drug Approval Analysis (NMEs & Biologicals): 1997 to 2010 Worldwide Rx & OTC Sales by Therapy Area in 2016 Oncology Market to 2016 Anti-Diabetic Market to 2016 Anti-Rheumatics Market to 2016 Vaccine Market to 2016 Anti-Virals Market to 2016 2016: Top 50 Selling Products in the World 2016: Top 50 Selling Products in the USA Worldwide Rx & OTC Sales by Therapy Area in 2010 Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2010 Worldwide Generic Drug Sales in 2010 M&A Analysis: 2006 to 2010 Venture Financing Analysis: 2006 to 2010
New Analysis New Analysis New Analysis
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
Key Product Events Negatively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2010 Enterprise Value Analysis: 2009 to 2010 Net Income in 2010: Top 20 Companies Net Income Margin in 2010: Top 20 Companies 2010: Top 50 Selling Products in the World 2010: Top 50 Selling Products in the USA About EvaluatePharma
June 2011
+15% +12% +10% +8% 454 406 354 +3% +3% 493 +10% +9% 539 +8% 592 640 656 675
+16.0%
+4.0% CAGR 2010-16
711
730
757
791
820
853
+5% +4%
+6.0%
+4%
+4.0% +2.0% +0.0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
10%
Expected Sales Lost % of Rx Market At Risk
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 13 9 4%
9% 63 6% 41 4% 33 32 21 24 19 22 5% 41 47 6% 4%
9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 31 4% 3% 20 2% 1% 0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Patent Analysis: 'Total Sales at Risk' represent the worldwide product sales in the year prior to patent expiry but allocated to the year of expiry. E.g. Lipitor had sales of $10.7bn in 2010, this is shown above as 'At Risk' in 2011. Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales (2002-16)
Swine Flu Contribution* 1.0 8.4 5.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
WW Prescription Sales ($bn) Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 Prescription (Rx) Growth per Year Change vs. April 2010**
354 +9.6% 406 454 493 +8.4% +14.8% +11.8%
2006
539 +9.4%
2007
592 +10.0%
2008
640 +8.0%
2009
656 +2.5% +12
2010
675 +2.9% +13
2011
711 +5.3% +28
2012
730 +2.7% +31
2013
757 +3.7% +34
2014
791 +4.5% +45
2016
2015
820 +3.7% +54
+4.0% +68
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011) CAGR 10-16 +4.0% Note: Industry sales based on Top 500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies. Sales to 2010 based on company reported sales data. Sales forecasts to 2016 based on a consensus of leading equity analysts' estimates for company product sales and segmental sales. *Swine Flu products include vaccines and influenza treatments Tamiflu and Relenza **EvaluatePharma expanded company coverage added $12bn to 2009 vs. April 2010.
% At Risk
2016
853
Expected Key Patent Expiries in 2012: Plavix (SNY/ BMS) Seroquel (AZN), Diovan (NVS), Singulair (MRK), Actos (TAK), Lexapro (FRX) & Viagra (PFE).
WW Sales Growth %
51.2
-1%
50.2
+5%
49.7
+3%
45.0
+4%
43.6
+3%
42.3
+1%
27.0
-3%
24.4
+3%
23.9
+9%
21.9
+1%
(-)
0 Pfizer
+2
Sanofi
-1
Novartis
+2
GlaxoSmithKline
(-)
Roche
-3
Merck & Co
(-)
AstraZeneca
+2
Abbott Laboratories
+4
Teva Pharmaceutical
-1
Johnson & Johnson
2010
8.0% 5.4% 6.1% 5.3% 5.3% 6.0% 4.7% 2.9% 2.1% 3.1% 2.1% 1.6% 2.3% 3.1% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 1.2%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011) Note: Prescription drug sales include generic drug sales. Excludes alliance revenue and royalties where possible.
90%
89%
88%
87%
86%
85%
84%
83%
82%
81%
80%
79%
79%
79%
79%
67 %
55 %
45 %
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
21%
21%
21%
2016 Split: Biotech: n=41 (avg. $2.78bn) Conv.: n=59 (avg. $2.35bn)
2013
2014
2015
2002 2003 Technology Biotechnology 38 46 Conventional 261 301 Other Unclassified Sales 75 82 Total Rx & OTC Sales 374 429 Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011)
2005
66 347 105 518
2006
79 371 115 565
2007
96 396 128 620
2008
110 418 142 670
2009
119 429 140 688
2010
130 431 146 707
2011
140 444 162 745
2012
151 437 178 765
2013
163 440 191 794
2014
175 450 205 829
2015
184 454 221 860
2016 2016
192 465 237 894
Chg. (+/-)
-2.3% +1.5% +0.5% -3.1% -0.7% +0.6% -0.3% -0.7% -0.4% -1.4%
Rank Chg.
+1 +1 -2 +3 -2 +1 -2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Note: Company drug sales from undisclosed products are presumed to be from conventional (small molecule) technology.
Note: Sanofi results for 2010 are not pro-forma for the acquisition of Genzyme. Copyright 2011 EvaluatePharma Ltd. All rights reserved. 8
Elvitegravir + GS 9350 + Truvada Reolysin Ruxolitinib (INC424) DegludecPlus VEGF Trap-Eye Xarelto Varespladib (A-002) Ivacaftor (VX-770) Crizotinib (PF-02341066)
20 Trastuzumab-DM1
Most Valuable R&D Projects (Ranked by NPV) in April 2010 Which Have Since Been Approved or Suffered Setbacks
Change vs. APR 10 Approved Product Status Change April 2010 NPV ($m) 17,892 5,990 5,884 5,558 3,071 2,623 2,590 2,458 Sub-Total Setback 46,066 5,135 4,342 2,988 2,298 Sub-Total 14,763 60,829 Today's 12,265 5,873 4,645 7,434 3,692 2,947 3,942 930 41,728 504 1,150 1,654 43,382 Change vs. -31% -2% -21% 34% 20% 12% 52% -62% -9% -100% -88% -62% -100% -89% -29%
Prolia/Xgeva Provenge Benlysta Incivek Benlysta Brilinta* Esbriet* Viibryd Numax Vorapaxar (SCH 530348) Bydureon Taspoglutide (RG1583) Total
Company Amgen Dendreon HGS Vertex GlaxoSmithKline AstraZeneca InterMune Forest AstraZeneca Merck & Co Amylin Roche
Status (April 2010) Filed Filed Phase III Phase III Phase III Filed Filed Filed Filed Phase III Filed Phase III
Since April10 Approved Approved Approved Approved Approved Approved Approved Approved Setback Setback Setback Setback
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011) Note: Theravance to receive royalty payments from GSK on Relovair. DR Cysteamine, AMR101 and Reolysin NPVs based on assumption of future out-licensing, currently being developed by Raptor Pharmaceutical, Amarin and Oncolytics Biotech, respectively. Analysts assume Pfizer to receive co-promotion revenues on Eliquis (apixaban) from BMS. *Brilinta and Esbriet have been approved in the EU but suffered setbacks in the US.
16%
+2.5% CAGR 2010-16
+12.1% +10.4% 129 +8.9% 125 127 133 134 137 141
144
147
6%
60 40
-3.0%
2006
107.5 539 19.9%
2007
118.7 592 20.0%
2009
2008
129.2 640 20.2%
2009
125.3 -3.0% 656 19.1%
2010
127.1 +1.5% 675 18.8%
2011
132.9 +4.5% 711 18.7%
2012
134.1 +1.0% 730 18.4%
2013
137.1 +2.2% 757 18.1%
2014
140.8 +2.7% 791 17.8%
2015
143.9 +2.2% 820 17.6%
CAGR 10-16 on Pharma R&D Spend +2.5% Cumulative R&D Spend (2002-10) $939 bn Note: Industry sales based on Top 500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies. Forecast pharmaceutical research and development spend based on a consensus of leading equity analysts' estimates for company level R&D spend, extrapolated to pharmaceutical R&D when a company has non-pharmaceutical R&D activity.
10
10
8.5
+1%
8.4
+1%
7.6
+5%
7.4
+4%
7.2
-4%
5.2
+2%
5.0
+1%
4.4
+1%
3.8
+2%
Roche
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Company Novartis Merck & Co Roche GlaxoSmithKline Sanofi Pfizer Johnson & Johnson Eli Lilly AstraZeneca Takeda Bayer Bristol-Myers Squibb Boehringer Ingelheim Amgen Novo Nordisk Abbott Laboratories Daiichi Sankyo Astellas Pharma Otsuka Holdings Merck KGaA Total Top 20 Other Total
CAGR 10-16
+4% +1% +1% +5% +4% -4% +2% +1% +1% +2% +8% +1% +2% +2% +9% +3% +2% -2% +1% +3% +1.9% +3.6% +2.5%
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011) Note: Forecast pharmaceutical R&D spend based on a consensus of leading equity analysts' estimates for company level R&D spend.
Eli Lilly
Sanofi
11
FDA New Drug Approval Analysis (NMEs & Biologicals): 1997 to 2010
Best Year for Approvals since 2004 as Sales Potential Doubles; Number of New Drugs Approved Down 24% EvaluatePharma found that the FDA approved 26 new drugs in 2010, a decrease of 24% from the 2009 figure of 34. The 2010 approvals included 15 new molecular entities (down 4) and 11 biologicals (down 4 on 2009). Despite this decrease in new drug approvals, the quality of the approvals improved significantly over 2009 thanks to the approval of several potential blockbusters: Prevnar 13 (Pfizer), Prolia/Xgeva (Amgen), Provenge (Dendreon), Victoza (Novo Nordisk) and Gilenya (Novartis). Indeed, the quality of the NMEs in 2010 is the highest since 2004, with anticipated USA sales 5 years post launch of $13.3bn, a 119% increase over 2009.
FDA Approval Count vs. Total USA Product Sales 5 Years After Launch Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011)
USA Sales 5 Yrs after Launch ($bn) 25
1998 Remicade (JNJ) Singulair (MRK) Celebrex (PFE) Enbrel (AMGN/ WYE) Viagra (PFE) Celexa (FRX) 2002 Neulasta (AGMN) Abilify (BMY/ Otsuka) Zetia (SGP/ MRK) Humira (ABT) Eloxatin (SNY) Product name (company ticker) of products in good years (>$1bn) sales) 2010 Prevnar 13 (PFE) Prolia/Xgeva (AMGN) Provenge (DNDN) Victoza (Novo N) Gilenya (NVS)
20
49 39 40
2004 Avastin (Roche) Cymbalta (LLY) Lyrica (PFE) Spiriva (BI/ PFE)
50
15
33
$14bn 10
35 32
$13bn
38 34
$14bn
40
26
Average 5th Year USA Sales Potential: $8.8bn
28
$8bn $7bn
29 26
$8bn $5bn
31
$13bn
30
26
20 $6bn $5bn
10
0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDA Approval Count (NMEs & Biologicals) vs. 5th Year after Launch USA Product Sales
Year No. of NMEs Approved No. of Biologicals Approved Total NMEs + Biologicals % Chg. USA Sales 5yrs Post Launch $bn % Chg. 1997
39 10 49 7.4
1998
30 9 39 -20% 13.5 +82%
1999
35 5 40 +3% 7.1 -48%
2000
27 6 33 -18% 7.4 +4%
2001
24 8 32 -3% 8.5 +14%
2002
17 9 26 -19% 12.7 +50%
2003
21 14 35 +35% 8.3 -34%
2004
31 7 38 +9% 14.1 +69%
2005
18 10 28 -26% 6.5 -54%
2006
18 11 29 +4% 8.1 +25%
2007
16 10 26 -10% 5.1 -37%
2008
21 10 31 +19% 5.0 -2%
2009
19 15 34 +10% 6.1
2010
15 11 26 -24% 13.3
+20% +119%
Top 10 New Molecular Entities in 2010: Ranked on USA Consensus Sales in 2015
US Sales 2010 2015
1,761 34 48 207 15 109 56 26 170 2,329 1,864 1,818 1,165 1,077 883 657 631 560 423 1,898
Product Company Pfizer 1 Prevnar 13 Amgen 2 Prolia/Xgeva Dendreon 3 Provenge Novo Nordisk 4 Victoza Novartis 5 Gilenya Boehringer Ingelheim 6 Pradaxa Sanofi 7 Jevtana Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma 8 Latuda Roche 9 Actemra Eisai 10 Halaven Other Total Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011)
Approved
Feb 2010 Jun 2010 Apr 2010 Jan 2010 Sep 2010 Oct 2010 Jun 2010 Oct 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2010
Note: Sales forecasts based on a consensus of leading equity analysts' estimates. 5th year USA sales for products approved before 2005 are based on actual company reported sales. E.g. Erbitux (BMS), approved in FEB 2004 has company reported US sales in 2009 (5th year post US launch) of $671m.
2,425 13,306
60
12
Analysis on Source: EvaluatePharma (25in 2012, Market Share & Sales Growth (2007-12) Top 10 Therapy Sales MAY 2011)
WW Market Share % 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2%
Key Patent Expiry Lipitor (PFE) in 2011 Key Patent Expiries Angiotensin II antagonists segment Diovan (NVS) in 2012, Avapro (BMY/ SAN) in 2012, Micardis (BI) in 2014. Key Drivers Avastin (Roche), Rituxan (Roche) Tasigna (NVS), Afinitor (NVS) Provenge (DNDN), Revlimid (CELG) Key Patent Expiries Taxotere (SAN), Arimidex (AZN) Gleevec (NVS), Gemzar (LLY) Femara (NVS)
Analysis on Top 10 Therapy Areas in 2016, Market Share & Sales Growth (2010-16)
Oncology*
Anti-diabetics
Key Drivers: New oral treatments Xarelto (BAY/ J&J) Eliquis (BMS / PFE) Pradaxa (BI)
Anti-coagulants
0% -10.0%
-5.0%
+0.0%
+5.0%
+10.0%
+15.0%
+20.0%
Note: Bubble = WW Sales in 2016 WW Rx & OTC Sales by EvaluatePharma Therapy Area (2010/16): Top 15 Categories & Total Market WW Sales ($bn) Therapy Area
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Oncology* Anti-diabetics Anti-rheumatics Vaccines Anti-virals Anti-hypertensives Bronchodilators Anti-hyperlipidaemics Dermatologicals Anti-coagulants Sensory organs MS therapies Anti-bacterials Anti-fibrinolytics Bone calcium regulators Top 15 Other Total WW Rx & OTC Sales 2010
60.0 30.6 32.7 25.3 22.1 40.9 32.8 29.8 12.4 7.4 13.8 11.1 15.4 9.1 9.9 353 354 707
CAGR
% Growth
+7.1% +7.5% +4.6% +6.3% +6.6% -4.0% -1.1% -2.8% +4.6% +13.5% +2.0% +4.5% -1.4% +4.9% +2.2% +3% +4% +4%
2016
90.5 47.3 42.8 36.5 32.5 32.1 30.7 25.2 16.2 15.8 15.5 14.5 14.1 12.1 11.3 437 457 894
Chg. (+/-)
+1.6% +1.0% +0.2% +0.5% +0.5% -2.2% -1.2% -1.4% +0.1% +0.7% -0.2% +0.0% -0.6% +0.1% -0.1% -1.1% +1.1%
Note: Industry sales based on Top 500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies. Sales in 2010 based on company reported data. Sales forecasts to 2016 based on a consensus of leading equity analysts' estimates for product sales and segmental sales. *Compared to April 2010, EvaluatePharma now classifies Revlimid (Celgene, 2016 Sales: $5,550m) and Afinitor (Novartis, 2016 Sales: 2,058) as oncology products (previously classified as immunostimulants).
13
Roche
+0%
+5%
+10%
+15%
+20%
+25%
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011); Consensus sales from equity analysts' reports
Note: Oncology Includes: Alkaloids, Alkylating agents, Anti-metabolites, Anti-neoplastic MAbs, Cancer vaccines, Cytotoxic antibiotics, Hormone therapies, Platinum compounds and other anti-cancer. Excludes anti-emetics and anti-anaemics used in chemotherapy-induced anaemia. Also excludes: Interferons, immunostimulants & immunosuppressants. *Compared to April 2010, EvaluatePharma now classifies Revlimid (Celgene, 2016 Sales: $5,550m) and Afinitor (Novartis, 2016 Sales: $2,058m) as oncology products (previously classified as immunostimulants).
14
Novo Nordisk
-5%
+0%
+5%
+10%
+15%
+20%
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011); Consensus sales from equity analysts' reports
Note: Bristol-Myers Squibb to book worldwide end-user sales on Onglyza, co-promoted worldwide (ex Japan) with AstraZeneca.
15
25%
Pfizer*
15%
Merck & Co
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011); Consensus sales from equity analysts' reports
J&J + Merck + Anti-TNFa MAb Mitsubishi Tanabe Merck + J&J Pfizer Anti-TNFa MAb Janus kinase-3 (JAK-3) inhibitor
Note: Anti-rheumatic sales include TNF inhibitors, COX-2 inhibitors, NSAIDs and new treatments in development. TNF inhibitor sales include RA, Crohn's and Psoriasis. Pfizer books US co-promotion revenues on Enbrel. *Compared to April 2010, EvaluatePharma now classifies CP-690550 (Pfizer, 2016 Sales: $1,651m) as an Other Anti-rheumatic (previously classified as an immunosuppressant). **Combined Remicade and Simponi sales $8.0bn. Simponi (golimumab) is Merck and J&J's next generation product to Remicade (infliximab). Copyright 2011 EvaluatePharma Ltd. All rights reserved. 16
Pfizer
10%
Novartis
5%
Novartis Strong contribution expected from new meningococcal vaccines. Bexsero (2016 sales: $1.0bn) and Menveo sales (2016 sales: $643m).
3 Pfizer Merck & Co + 50% Sanofi 4 Pasteur MSD 5 Novartis 6 CSL 7 Baxter International 8 Abbott Laboratories 9 Takeda 10 Mitsubishi Tanabe Top 10 Other Total Industry
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011); Consensus sales from equity analysts' reports
Note: Sanofi Pasteur MSD is a European joint venture between Merck & Co and Sanofi. Copyright 2011 EvaluatePharma Ltd. All rights reserved. 17
Gilead Sciences
MRK: Strong growth from HIV integrase inhibitor Isentress (raltegravir) and new hep C protease inhibitor Victrelis (boceprevir).
-10%
+0%
+10%
+20%
+30%
+40%
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011); Consensus sales from equity analysts' reports
Note: GlaxoSmithKline consolidates 100% of the revenues from ViiV Healthcare, a joint venture with Pfizer for the marketing of the two companies' HIV anti-virals.
18
Boehringer Ingelheim + Pfizer Muscarinic antagonist Boehringer + Astellas + Bayer Angiotensin II antagonist Novartis + Roche Daiichi Sankyo + Forest AstraZeneca + Sigma-Tau Human Genome Sciences + GSK Eli Lilly Pfizer + Astellas + Almirall CSL Dendreon Baxter International Allergan + GSK Novartis Novo Nordisk Merck & Co Teva + Sanofi Sanofi + BMS Boehringer Ingelheim Sanofi Amgen + Kyowa Hakko Novartis Amarin Anti-VEGF MAb Angiotensin II antagonist Beta 2 adrenoreceptor agonist & corticosteroid Anti-B lymphocyte stimulator (BLyS) MAb Thymidylate synthase inhibitor Statin/ HMG CoA reductase inhibitor Immunoglobulin Prostate cancer vaccine Factor VIII Botulinum toxin S1P receptor modulator Insulin Cholesterol absorption inhibitor MS agent Platelet ADP antagonist Thrombin inhibitor Heparin, low molecular weight (LMWH) Erythropoietin Tyrosine kinase inhibitor Omega-3 fatty acid
Eli Lilly + United Therapeutics Phosphodiesterase V (PDE5) + Nippon Shinyaku inhibitor Novartis Merck KGaA + BMS Eli Lilly Merck & Co Novo Nordisk Takeda + J&J BCR-ABL, PDGFr & c-kit tyrosine kinase inhibitor Anti-EGFr MAb Insulin HIV integrase inhibitor GLP-1 agonist Proteasome inhibitor
Impact of increased company coverage in EvaluatePharma +5667 Impact of consensus forecasts added since April 2010 for companies completing IPOs in 2010 and 2011 +3642 Estimated change in 2016 consensus forecast for all products forecast in EvaluatePharma +30184
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011) Note: Sales represent company reported sales where available, otherwise based on an average of equity analyst estimates. *$33.8bn is the sum of newly IPO'd companies ($3.6bn), plus estimated change in 2016 consensus forecast for all products forecast ($30.2bn). Copyright 2011 EvaluatePharma Ltd. All rights reserved. 19
insulin glargine recombinant Sanofi etanercept infliximab efavirenz; emtricitabine; tenofovir pneumococcal vaccine pegfilgrastim icosapent ethyl trastuzumab denosumab sipuleucel-T rosuvastatin calcium belimumab glatiramer acetate telaprevir emtricitabine; tenofovir disoproxil fumarate pregabalin botulinum toxin type A epoetin alfa insulin aspart recombinant insulin detemir recombinant Amgen Johnson & Johnson Gilead Sciences Pfizer Amgen Amarin Roche Amgen Dendreon AstraZeneca Human Genome Sciences Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Vertex Pharmaceuticals Gilead Sciences Pfizer Allergan Amgen + J&J Novo Nordisk Novo Nordisk
lisdexamfetamine dimesylate Shire ranibizumab liraglutide recombinant apixaban immune globulin (human) varicella vaccine ezetimibe fingolimod rivaroxaban ticagrelor insulin lispro recombinant raltegravir potassium pemetrexed disodium eptacog alfa estrogens, conjugated abatacept exenatide saxagliptin hydrochloride interferon beta-1a rifaximin bortezomib natalizumab factor VIII (procoagulant) tofacitinib citrate Roche Novo Nordisk Bristol-Myers Squibb Baxter International Merck & Co Merck & Co Novartis Johnson & Johnson AstraZeneca Eli Lilly Merck & Co Eli Lilly Novo Nordisk Pfizer Bristol-Myers Squibb Amylin + Eli Lilly Bristol-Myers Squibb Biogen Idec Salix Pharmaceuticals Takeda Elan Baxter International Pfizer
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011) Note: Sales represent company reported sales where available, otherwise based on an average of equity analyst estimates.
20
Analysis on Top 10 Therapy Sales in 2010, Market Share & Sales Growth (2009-10)
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011)
WW Market Share %
12%
10% Oncology
Key Drivers Avastin (Roche) Alimta (Lilly) Revlimid (Celgene) Patent Expiries Eloxatin (Sanofi) Arimidex (AZN)
8%
6%
Anti-hypertensives Bronchodilators Anti-diabetics Anti-hyperlipidaemics Anti-virals Antacids and Antiulcerants Anti-psychotics Vaccines
Anti-rheumatics
4%
2%
+20%
2009
8.2% 6.1% 4.5% 4.2% 4.0% 4.3% 3.4% 3.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 1.6% 53.1% 46.9% 100.0%
Note: Industry sales based on Top 500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies. Sales in 2010 based on company reported data.
21
Eli Lilly
Roche
GlaxoSmithKline
AstraZeneca
Novartis
Sanofi
2009
6.5% 5.6% 4.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.5% 4.8% 3.0% 3.2% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 1.9% 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 64.7% 35.3% 100.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011) Note: Sales in 2010 based on company reported data. Excludes alliance revenue and royalties where possible. *GSK and Glaxo have consistently been in the Top 5 since late 1980s. **Abbott, Merck & Co and Pfizer based on reported data for 2009/10, not pro-forma. (Abbott acquired Solvay Pharmaceuticals in Feb 2010, Merck & Co acquired Schering-Plough in Nov 2009 and Pfizer acquired Wyeth in Oct 2009.) Copyright 2011 EvaluatePharma Ltd. All rights reserved. 22
Abbott Laboratories**
7.7
15%
5.0
+6% +5% +38% +12% +44% +27% +55% -5%
2.6
2.3
+2
2.0 Hospira
2.0
+3
1.8
+2
1.5
-1
Watson Pharmaceuticals
Aspen Pharmacare
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Company Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Novartis Mylan Actavis Watson Pharmaceuticals Hospira Sanofi Daiichi Sankyo Aspen Pharmacare STADA Arzneimittel Apotex Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Cipla ratiopharm Fresenius Krka Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Lupin Abdi Ibrahim Par Pharmaceutical Companies Total Top 20 Other Total
2009
17.4% 12.3% 8.7% 4.5% 3.0% 3.4% 2.6% 2.9% 2.2% 2.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.9% 4.3% 1.6% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 2.0% 80.2% 19.8% 100.0%
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011) Note: Sales in 2010 based on company reported data. ratiopharm sales for 2010 reflect the period January 2010 to August 2010, when the company was acquired by Teva. Abdi Ibrahim, Actavis, Apotex, Aspen, Cipla, Dr. Reddy's, Lupin, and Sun based on forecast data for 2010. *EvaluatePharma coverage: 66 generic companies. Copyright 2011 EvaluatePharma Ltd. All rights reserved. 23
Sanofi
300
300
250
250
200
145
152
150
100
173% Growth
100
Count of Pharma M&A Deals vs. Total Pharma M&A Value (2006 - 2010)
Year Deal Count % Chg. Deal Value ($bn) % Chg. 2006
124 101
2007
134 8% 86 -15%
2008
153 14% 69 -20%
2009
145 -5% 188 171%
2010
152 5% 75 -60%
Alcon Solvay Pharma ratiopharm Valeant OSI Pharmaceuticals Piramal (Solutions) Abraxis BioScience Chattem Qualitest SSP Other Total Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011)
2007 2006 Organon [SGP] ($15.6bn) SCH [BAY] ($21.3bn) MEDI [AZN] ($15.6bn) PFE Cons [JNJ] ($16.6bn) Serono [Merck] ($13.8bn)
2009 WYE [PFE] ($68.0bn) 2008 DNA [Roche] ($10.4bn) Alcon [NVS] ($46.8bn) SGP [MRK] ($41.1bn)
200
24
6000
$6,210m $5,604m
600
5000
500
400
300
2000
200
1000
100
0 2009 2010
Count of Pharma Venture Financing Deals vs. Total Pharma Venture Financing Value (2006 - 2010)
Year Deal Count % Chg. Deal Value ($m) % Chg. 2006
286 5,604
2007
333 16% 6,210 11%
2008
291 -13% 4,893 -21%
2009
330 13% 5,251 7%
2010
298 -10% 4,909 -7%
Alvogen Group Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Theravance Archimedes Pharma Reata Pharmaceuticals AiCuris Relypsa immatics biotechnologies Pearl Therapeutics TESARO Other Total Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011)
Note: Includes investments in pharmaceutical and biotech companies only. Does not include genomics or medical devices companies. Includes Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE).
Deal Count
25
Key Product Events Positively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2010 New Analysis
Crestor Ruling Largest Positive Event in 2010 The analysis below highlights the top 15 product events which positively impacted shareholder value on the day of announcement (measured by change in market capitalization) in 2010. The largest event was a US court ruling on Crestor, which removed the threat of generics prior to 2016. This event initially added $5.8bn in value, +9% share price gain, to AstraZeneca. The approval of Prolia (denosumab) was the second biggest event, adding $5.1bn to the market cap. of Amgen, reflecting a 11% share price gain.
Product
Crestor
Company
1 AstraZeneca
Event Type
Litigation
Therapy Area
Anti-hyperlipidaemics
Date
29 Jun 10 29 Jun: A US court rules that the patent on the company's cholesterol-lowering drug Crestor is valid, removing the threat of generic versions of the drug entering the US market until the patent expires in 2016.
2 Amgen
Prolia
Bone calcium regulators 02 Jun 10 1 Jun [post market]: Company receives FDA approval for its key growth driver, osteoporosis drug Prolia, nearly two months ahead of the expected action date of 25 Jul. Anti-coagulants 11 Jun 10 10 Jun [post-market]: Company and partner BristolMyers Squibb end phase III trial of anti-coagulant drug apixaban early, after clear efficacy is seen in a trial attempting to demonstrate a lower risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. 18 Mar 10 18 Mar: Shares rise on news that Novartis' generics division, Sandoz, has returned the US rights to lung drug, VR315, a potential generic competitor to GlaxoSmithKline's asthma drug, Advair, back to Vectura, due to potential difficulties in getting the drug to market in the US. 20 Oct 10 20 Oct: Shares rise following the FDA's complete response letter for Amylin's diabetes drug, Bydureon, a potential competitor for Novo Nordisk's diabetes treatment, Victoza, which received FDA approval in January. 23 Apr 10 23 Apr: A US federal court rules in the company's favour in a patent lawsuit with Teva over acid reflux drug, Protonix, stating that Pfizer's patent is valid and has been infringed by Teva. 09 Dec 10 9 Dec: Company and partner Active Biotech announce positive headline data from first of two phase III trials for their oral MS drug, laquinimod, meeting primary and secondary efficacy endpoints as well as demonstrating a comparable safety profile to placebo. 24 Sep 10 24 Sep: The CHMP issues rival Merck KGaA with a negative opinion for its oral MS treatment, cladribine, stating that the drug's benefits do not outweigh its risks.
+11%
+5,106
3 Pfizer
Eliquis
+4%
+4,436
4 GlaxoSmithKline
Competitor Announcement
Advair
Other bronchodilators
+4%
+4,003
5 Novo Nordisk
Competitor Announcement
Victoza
Anti-diabetics
+9%
+3,834
6 Pfizer
Litigation
Protonix
+3%
+3,470
7 Teva
Laquinimod MS Therapies
+7%
+3,145
8 Novartis
Competitor Announcement
Gilenya
MS Therapies
+2%
+2,708
9 Amgen
Xgeva
Bone calcium regulators 14 Dec 10 13 Dec [post market]: Top-line phase III results for the company's bone drug, Xgeva (denosumab), demonstrate that the drug significantly improved median bone metastasis-free survival by 4.2 months compared to placebo. Anti-neoplastic MAbs 07 Jun 10 7 Jun: Phase III trial results for company's melanoma treatment, ipilimumab, presented at ASCO on 5 Jun, show that the drug prolongs life and survival of patients by 34%. 17 Nov 10 16 Nov: An FDA advisory panel votes 13 to 2 in favour of approving company and partner, Human Genome Sciences' lupus drug, Benlysta; final FDA decision due on 9 Dec. 15 Nov 10 15 Nov: Company and partner, Johnson & Johnson, report phase III data for anti-clotting drug, Xarelto, which show that the drug is better at preventing stroke than standard treatment, warfarin, with lower risk of intracranial bleeding. 12 Aug 10 11 Aug [post market]: An FDA advisory panel unanimously recommends approval of the company and partner Valeant Pharmaceuticals' epilepsy drug, ezogabine (Potiga); final FDA decision due by 30 Aug. 28 Jul 10 28 Jul: An FDA advisory panel votes 7-1 in favour of recommending approval for the company's blood thinner, Brilinta; final FDA decision due by 16 Sep. 06 Jul 10 6 Jul: Shares likely to remain volatile ahead of FDA meetings on 13-14 July to review cardiovascular safety issues for Avandia.
+5%
+2,506
10 Bristol-Myers
Yervoy
+6%
+2,442
11 GlaxoSmithKline
Benlysta
Immunosuppressants
+2%
+2,389
12 Bayer
Xarelto
Anti-coagulants
+4%
+2,372
13 GlaxoSmithKline
Broker Upgrade
Potiga
Anti-epileptics
+3%
+2,322
14 AstraZeneca
Brilinta
+3%
+2,274
15 GlaxoSmithKline
Avandia
+3%
+2,229
+48,996 +366,102
Source: EvaluatePharma's EventAnalyzer (25 MAY 2011) Note: EvaluatePharma's EventAnalyzer contains a back catalogue of events which had the greatest impact on company valuations dating back to December 2007. Events can be viewed by Company, Product, Therapy Area and Peer Group to see instantly the impact of events on company valuation and the news flow driving share price movement. Events are categorized into 100 unique Event Type classifications, allowing you to track the market impact of key types of news flow (e.g. regulatory approvals, financial results, patent litigation, broker sentiment and competitor announcements, etc).
26
Key Product Events Negatively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2010 New Analysis
Avastin Hit by Double Setback in 2010 The analysis below highlights the largest 15 product events negatively impacting shareholder value on the day of announcement (measured by change in market capitalization) in 2010. The largest two events both relate to Roche's Avastin, which saw its consensus forecast tumble over the year following negative PIII results in prostate cancer and a negative opinion from an FDA Advisory Committee on breast cancer. Together these events wiped $9.2bn off Roche's market cap., a 7% decline in its share price.
% Share Market Cap Price Change Change
-+3% -+4,724
Company
1 Roche
Event Type
Phase III Trial Results
Product
Avastin
Therapy Area
Anti-neoplastic MAbs
Date
12 Mar 10 12 Mar: Avastin (bevacizumab) fails to meet its primary phase III endpoint of extending overall survival in prostate cancer patients, compared with chemotherapy and prednisone alone. 21 Jul 10 20 Jul [post market]: An FDA advisory panel votes 121 in favour of revoking Avastin's approval for breast cancer, stating that studies show insufficient benefit for patients; final FDA decision due 17 Sep. 23 Jul 10 23 Jul: Momenta Pharmaceuticals receives FDA approval for its generic version of Sanofi' blood thinner, Lovenox, raising fears that the FDA may soon approve a generic version of Copaxone; Momenta confirms in a conference call that it is working with the FDA on its Copaxone application. 21 Apr 10 21 Apr: Bloomberg reports that UnitedHealth Group, the US' biggest medical insurer by sales, plans to double the amount it will charge for companys cholesterol pills, Vytorin and Zetia, from 1 Jul, raising concerns that the move will deter patients from using the medicines. 17 Dec 10 16 Dec [post market]: Company receives an FDA complete response letter for its heart drug, Brilinta, requesting further analyses of phase III trial data, but not additional clinical studies, potentially delaying US approval of the drug by a further nine months. 18 Jun 10 18 Jun: Company announces the implementation of a risk mitigation plan in its phase III programme for diabetes drug, taspoglutide, following cases of hypersensitivity in patients, leading to a potential delay in filing of at least 12-18 months.
2 Roche
Avastin
Anti-neoplastic MAbs
-+4%
-+4,500
3 Teva
Competitor Announcement
Copaxone
MS Therapies
-+9%
-+4,323
4 Merck & Co
Pricing Issues
Vytorin
Anti-hyperlipidaemics
-+4%
-+4,115
5 AstraZeneca
Brilinta
-+6%
-+4,023
6 Roche
Taspoglutide Anti-diabetics
-+2%
-+3,490
7 Pfizer
Product Suspended
Tanezumab
Non-narcotic analgesics 24 Jun 10 23 Jun [post market]: Company suspends phase III trials of its osteoarthritis drug, tanezumab, after some patients taking the drug experienced a worsening of their condition that required joint replacement surgery. Anti-coagulants 23 Jul 10 23 Jul: Company cuts its 2010 financial outlook after Momenta Pharmaceuticals receives FDA approval for its generic version of Lovenox. 22 Apr 10 Shares continue to fall after Bloomberg reported on 21 Apr that UnitedHealth Group, the US' biggest medical insurer by sales, plans to double the amount it will charge for Vytorin and Zetia from 1 Jul, raising concerns that the move will deter patients from using the medicines. 13 May 10 13 May: Mylan files for FDA approval of its generic version of Pfizer's cancer drug, Sutent, challenging several patents on the drug which expire in 2021. 22 Feb 10 22 Feb: The FDA begins reviewing data on possible heart risks linked to Avandia following the release of FDA documents on 20 Feb which included a 2008 memo from FDA drug safety reviewers who recommended withdrawing the drug from the US market due to safety concerns. 18 Jun 10 18 Jun: A new study published in the Diabetes Care journal suggests that company's diabetes drug, Lantus, raises the risk of cancer versus other insulins. 03 May 10 3 May: German newspaper Handelsblatt, states that the company's cancer drug, Avastin, is only marginally effective and has significant toxicity. 30 Jun 10 Shares fall back slightly after rising 9% on 29 Jun after a US court rules that the patent on Crestor is valid, removing the threat of generic versions of the drug entering the US market until the patent expires in 2016. 18 Oct 10 18 Oct: Shares fall on news that Pfizer has signed a deal with Biocon to sell its biosimilar versions of insulin, which will compete with Novo's brands, Novolin and Novolog.
-+3%
-+3,388
8 Sanofi
Lovenox
-+4%
-+3,323
9 Merck & Co
Vytorin
Anti-hyperlipidaemics
-+3%
-+3,024
10 Pfizer
FDA Filing
Sutent
Anti-angiogenics
-+2%
-+2,743
11 GlaxoSmithKline
Anti-diabetics
-+3%
-+2,713
12 Sanofi
Side Effect Risk/ Lantus Negative Label Side Effect Risk/ Avastin Negative Label Litigation Crestor
Anti-diabetics
-+3%
-+2,707
13 Roche
Anti-neoplastic MAbs
-+2%
-+2,487
14 AstraZeneca
Anti-hyperlipidaemics
-+3%
-+2,350
15 Novo Nordisk
Competitor Announcement
Novolin
Anti-diabetics
-+5%
-+2,343
-+50,253 -+321,620
Source: EvaluatePharma's EventAnalyzer (25 MAY 2011) Note: EvaluatePharma's EventAnalyzer contains a back catalogue of events which had the greatest impact on company valuations dating back to December 2007. Events can be viewed by Company, Product, Therapy Area and Peer Group to see instantly the impact of events on company valuation and the news flow driving share price movement. Events are categorized into 100 unique Event Type classifications, allowing you to track the market impact of key types of news flow (e.g. regulatory approvals, financial results, patent litigation, broker sentiment and competitor announcements, etc).
27
+70%
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
+12% -3% -2% -17% GlaxoSmithKline Johnson & Johnson Roche Pfizer Merck & Co Novartis -0% -10% -17% Abbott Laboratories Sanofi Bayer Novo Nordisk -11% -10%
Top 20 Companies in 2010: Ranked by Enterprise Value (based on valuation on 31 DEC 10)
Enterprise Value ($bn) 2009 2010 % Growth
171.0 166.6 115.6 168.8 136.7 124.0 105.5 89.1 81.9 38.6 65.7 53.0 53.4 46.4 39.0 40.6 42.1 36.6 38.4 26.3 1,639.3 158.5 156.4 149.8 141.7 134.6 114.4 85.3 85.0 71.1 61.3 58.2 52.4 47.1 46.2 43.1 42.7 40.6 31.0 30.5 28.1 1,577.7 -7% -6% +30% -16% -2% -8% -19% -5% -13% +59% -11% -1% -12% -1% +10% +5% -4% -15% -21% +7% -4%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Company Johnson & Johnson Pfizer Novartis Roche Merck & Co GlaxoSmithKline Sanofi Abbott Laboratories Bayer Novo Nordisk AstraZeneca Teva Pharmaceutical Amgen Alcon Reckitt Benckiser Bristol-Myers Squibb Eli Lilly Baxter International Gilead Sciences Takeda Total Top 20
28
18.0
+27% +27%
13.3
+3%
12.2
+2%
11.8
+24% +13%
10.7
+45% +45%
10.5
+7%
9.6
+5%
7.3
-23%
6.5
+12%
5.2
+8%
Pfizer*
GlaxoSmithKline
AstraZeneca
Roche
Novartis
Company 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Pfizer* Johnson & Johnson Sanofi Novartis Merck & Co* Roche AstraZeneca GlaxoSmithKline Abbott Laboratories* Eli Lilly Amgen Bayer Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Bristol-Myers Squibb Gilead Sciences Takeda Reckitt Benckiser Novo Nordisk Baxter International Alcon Top 20
2009
28.4% 20.9% 29.4% 21.0% 27.0% 21.7% 27.9% 21.4% 18.9% 22.2% 33.5% 9.6% 21.8% 19.1% 38.8% 24.5% 18.3% 21.1% 18.5% 31.6% 23.8%
2010
26.5% 21.6% 30.3% 22.8% 23.3% 23.1% 29.0% 16.7% 18.5% 22.7% 32.6% 9.9% 25.6% 19.2% 38.7% 17.7% 19.6% 23.7% 18.2% 29.0% 23.4%
Abbott Laboratories*
Chg. (+/-)
-1.9% +0.7% +0.9% +1.9% -3.7% +1.4% +1.1% -4.8% -0.4% +0.5% -0.9% +0.2% +3.9% +0.0% -0.2% -6.8% +1.4% +2.6% -0.4% -2.6% Average
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011) Measure: Net Income Normalised The accounting profit a company made during 2010, adjusted to exclude any one-off items, such as restructuring charges and disposal gains/ losses. *Abbott, Merck & Co and Pfizer based on reported data for 2009/10, not pro-forma.
Eli Lilly
Sanofi
29
Net Margin %
60% 50%
49% 40% 39% 30% 20% 10% 0% Valeant Pharmaceuticals Gilead Sciences PDL BioPharma Sun Pharmaceutical Warner Chilcott Forest Laboratories ViroPharma Celgene Amgen Sanofi 36% 34% 33%
31%
31%
30%
30%
29%
Company
2009
2010
Chg. (+/-)
1 PDL BioPharma 59.3% 48.8% -10.5% 189 168 -10.7% 2 Gilead Sciences 38.8% 38.7% -0.2% 2,724 3,073 +12.8% 3 Valeant Pharmaceuticals 47.1% 35.6% -11.5% 387 421 +8.9% 4 ViroPharma 23.8% 34.1% +10.4% 74 150 +103.2% 5 Amgen 33.5% 32.6% -0.9% 4,899 4,900 +0.0% 6 Celgene 32.2% 31.3% -0.9% 862 1,129 +30.9% 7 Sun Pharmaceutical 34.4% 31.2% -3.1% 283 374 +32.1% 8 Sanofi 29.4% 30.3% +0.9% 12,027 12,229 +1.7% 9 Warner Chilcott 33.1% 29.9% -3.2% 475 890 +87.2% 10 Forest Laboratories 26.0% 29.3% +3.4% 1,067 1,284 +20.3% 11 Alcon 31.6% 29.0% -2.6% 2,051 2,082 +1.5% 12 AstraZeneca 27.9% 29.0% +1.1% 9,159 9,642 +5.3% 13 Biogen Idec 26.8% 27.3% +0.5% 1,175 1,288 +9.6% 14 Pfizer 28.4% 26.5% -1.9% 14,202 17,983 +26.6% 15 Teva Pharmaceutical 21.8% 25.6% +3.9% 3,029 4,134 +36.5% 16 Alexion Pharmaceuticals 20.6% 25.0% +4.4% 80 135 +69.5% 17 Pharmstandard 27.0% 24.0% -3.0% 206 235 +14.0% 18 Endo Pharmaceuticals 22.9% 23.9% +1.0% 334 410 +22.8% 19 Novo Nordisk 21.1% 23.7% +2.6% 2,016 2,566 +27.3% 20 Gedeon Richter 19.1% 23.4% +4.3% 254 311 +22.4% Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011) Measure: Net Margin A ratio measuring company profitability based on net income normalised divided by total revenue. Note: Analysis only includes companies with two consecutive years of profit and with 2010 profit in excess of $50m. Sun Pharmaceutical is based on forecast data for 2010.
30
Amgen + J&J + Kyowa Hakko Erythropoietin Kirin Otsuka + BMS Novartis Eisai + Pfizer 5-HT1A & D2 partial agonist & 5-HT2 receptor antagonist Tyrosine kinase inhibitor Acetylcholinesterase inhibitor
Boehringer Ingelheim + Pfizer Muscarinic antagonist Sanofi Amgen Merck + Ono + Almirall Eli Lilly + Shionogi Forest + Lundbeck + Others Teva + Sanofi Takeda + AstraZeneca + Almirall Boehringer + Astellas + Bayer Sanofi + BMS + Dainippon + Shionogi Pfizer + Eisai Amgen + Kyowa Hakko Kirin Novartis + Roche Gilead Sciences Sanofi AstraZeneca + Sigma-Tau Gilead + Torii Pfizer + Astellas Biogen Idec Novo Nordisk Daiichi Sankyo + Forest Celgene Pfizer Merck & Co Merck KGaA + Pfizer Eli Lilly Merck + Sigma-Tau Novo Nordisk Eli Lilly Heparin, low molecular weight (LMWH) Colony stimulating factor Dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPPIV) inhibitor SNRI SSRI MS agent Angiotensin II antagonist Angiotensin II antagonist & thiazide Angiotensin II antagonist Alpha 2 delta ligand Erythropoietin Anti-VEGF MAb NNRTI & NRTI Taxane Beta 2 adrenoreceptor agonist & corticosteroid NRTI COX-2 inhibitor Interferon beta Insulin Angiotensin II antagonist Immunomodulator Pneumococcal vaccine Cholesterol absorption inhibitor Interferon beta Thymidylate synthase inhibitor Angiotensin II antagonist Insulin Insulin
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011) Note: Sales represent company reported sales where available, otherwise based on an average of equity analyst estimates.
31
insulin glargine recombinant Sanofi duloxetine hydrochloride esomeprazole magnesium pegfilgrastim rosuvastatin calcium valsartan olanzapine escitalopram oxalate glatiramer acetate sitagliptin phosphate enoxaparin sodium efavirenz; emtricitabine; tenofovir oxycodone hydrochloride donepezil hydrochloride tiotropium bromide monohydrate pneumococcal vaccine celecoxib trastuzumab interferon beta-1a lenalidomide pregabalin ranibizumab levofloxacin emtricitabine; tenofovir disoproxil fumarate memantine hydrochloride imatinib mesylate ezetimibe venlafaxine hydrochloride insulin lispro recombinant darbepoetin alfa ezetimibe; simvastatin modafinil docetaxel sildenafil citrate fenofibrate pemetrexed disodium estrogens, conjugated Eli Lilly AstraZeneca Amgen AstraZeneca Novartis Eli Lilly Forest Laboratories Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Merck & Co Sanofi Gilead Sciences Purdue Pharma Eisai
Boehringer Ingelheim + Pfizer Muscarinic antagonist Pfizer Pfizer Roche Biogen Idec Celgene Pfizer Roche Johnson & Johnson Gilead Sciences Forest Laboratories Novartis Merck & Co (SGP) Pfizer (Wyeth) Eli Lilly Amgen Merck & Co (SGP) Cephalon Sanofi Pfizer Abbott Laboratories Eli Lilly Pfizer (Wyeth) Pneumococcal vaccine COX-2 inhibitor Anti-HER2 (ErbB-2) MAb Interferon beta Immunomodulator Alpha 2 delta ligand Anti-VEGF MAb Quinolone NRTI NMDA antagonist Tyrosine kinase inhibitor Cholesterol absorption inhibitor SNRI Insulin Erythropoietin Statin/ HMG CoA reductase inhibitor & cholesterol absorption inhibitor Anti-narcoleptic Taxane Phosphodiesterase V (PDE5) inhibitor Fibrate Thymidylate synthase inhibitor Oestrogen agonist
Total
Source: EvaluatePharma (25 MAY 2011) Note: Sales represent company reported sales where available, otherwise based on an average of equity analyst estimates. EvaluatePharma endeavours to treat the sales from patent protected new formulations of existing products as distinct entities where possible. Epogen/ Neulasta/ Aranesp developed via Kirin-Amgen joint venture.
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About EvaluatePharma EvaluatePharma offers a unique commercial perspective on the pharma and biotech business, in a userfriendly online subscription service. For industry insiders and the investment sector, EvaluatePharma supports value-enhancing business decisions with proprietary insight into the commercial and financial prospects of the pharma and biotech industry. EvaluatePharma Product consensus forecasts to 2016, compiled from reports published by leading equity analysts Comprehensive pharmaceutical market analysis of listed and companies In-depth company financial data, including P&L, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow, Shareholder Returns, and Financial Ratios, with five-year forecasts Historic sales data drawn from the most complete and reliable sources of industry data the reporting companies themselves Dynamic market sizing and benchmarking Peer Group Analyzer and forecast trends New Sales by Indication to 2016 New Partnering opportunities New Clinical Trials analysis New Venture Finance coverage New Epidemiology data, reported by indication and by country; country pages now include economic and healthcare data sourced from the World Bank EvaluatePharma Alpha EvaluatePharma Alpha is a cutting-edge analysis and intelligence service for the pharma and biotech sector, helping clients to quantify market events and evaluate their impact on the valuation of products, portfolios and companies. Global coverage of over 3,500 consensus based product NPVs linked to share price and company valuation Interactive NPV Analyzer with full transparency and multiple inputs for each product Real time analysis with email alerts and share prices updated daily in line with NPV movements Calendar of Events an unrivalled tracking tool on key events set to impact product and company valuations Daily news commentary and analysis from EP Vantage with key opinion leader insight and proprietary quantitative analysis
June 2011
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June 2011
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