TO: FROM: RE: DATE:

Ben Chandler For Congress The Mellman Group, Inc. Chandler Is The Odds-On Favorite To Win Re-Election In The Kentucky 6th CD April 30, 2012

This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 400 voters representing the likely 2012 electorate in Kentuckys 6th Congressional District. Interviews were conducted by telephone March 26 to March 28, 2012, using a registration-based sample. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.9% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Ben Chandler is very well-positioned to retain his seat in Congress. The 6th CD presents very unfavorable political terrain to a Republican candidate, with a large Democratic advantage in partisanship and voters who feel much more favorably toward Democratic political figures than toward Republicans. Chandler is both quite popular and quite well known among district voters, while Andy Barr is neither. As a result, Chandler begins this race with a large 24-point lead a daunting challenge for his opponent even in the most favorable of circumstances. Chandler Enjoys A Hefty Lead And Begins Over 50%

Chandler Enjoys A Large 24-Point Lead Over Barr

Chandler vs. Barr
100%

80%

54%
60%

+24

40%

42% strong

30% 16%

20%

22% strong
0%

Chandler
Darker shading = stronger intensity

Barr

Undecided
3

Chandler leads Barr by a wide 24-point margin. A 54% majority express support for Chandler over Barr, compared to only 30% who offer support to Barr. Thus Chandler starts the race out well above the crucial 50% mark that often distinguishes healthy incumbents from those facing trouble. And the intensity is on Chandlers side as well. Forty-two percent (42%) of likely voters strongly support Chandler over Barr, while only about half as many (22%) offer that level of support to Barr.

Chandler leads Barr by 16-points among independent voters (45% Chandler, 29% Barr) and enjoys a huge lead among ideological moderates (60% Chandler, 15% Barr). Chandler is crushing Barr by 3-to-1 among women (62% Chandler, 22% Barr) and also leads among men (46% Chandler, 38% Barr).

The Mellman Group, Inc. Chandler Is Much Better Liked And Better Known Than Barr District voters are much more likely to know Ben Chandler and much more likely to view him favorably than they are Andy Barr. Chandlers hard name ID is 86%, giving him a much higher profile than Barr (50% hard name ID). Whats more, Chandler is viewed far more favorably than Barr. While a 52% majority view Chandler favorably (34% unfavorable), Barr is viewed mostly unfavorably, with 26% saying they have unfavorable views and fewer than 1-in-4 (24%) saying they view Barr favorably.

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Chandler Is Much Better Known And Better Liked Than Barr

100%

Chandler Favorability

100%

Barr Favorability

80%

80%

+18
60%

52% 34%

60%

-1
40%

40%

24%

26%

20%

22% Very

20%

17% Very

11% Very
0%

15% Very

0%

Favorable

Unfavorable

Favorable

Unfavorable

The Political Environment In The 6th CD is Very Problematic For Republicans Simply put, the battle for Kentuckys 6th Congressional District will be fought on largely Democratic terrain, particularly after the recent round of redistricting, which left Representative Chandler with an even more Democratic district than he had in past cycles. Democrats enjoy a nearly 2-to-1 advantage in party registration (61% Democratic, 32% Republican), and even the more realistic party identification numbers in our recent poll show a large 48% to 30% Democratic advantage over Republicans. Moreover, likely Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney is not at all popular in the district. A 51% majority view Romney unfavorably, while only 35% have a favorable view of the Republican challenger. As a result, President Obama currently leads Romney in a presidential trial heat (47% Obama, 42% Romney, 11% undecided). Considerations like these have prompted respected national political handicappers Stu Rothenberg, Charlie Cook, and Larry Sabato to upgrade this race from a Lean to a Likely Chandler win. Unseating a multi-term congressional incumbent is exceedingly rare, and Ben Chandler has the political profile of a clear winner. Chandler is very well-known and extremely well liked, with a spotless record in a district which is not only favorable to Democrats but has become more so after redistricting.