MO-Sen, MO-Gov Chilenski Strategies For Missouri Scout (Aug. 2012)

INTERACTIVE VOICE RESPONSE STUDY
SURVEY REPORT
PREPARED FOR MISSOURI SCOUT
August 12, 2012
CHILENSKI STRATEGIES
3723 Hartford Street
Saint Louis, Missouri 63116
314-221-2190
www.chilenski.com
TABLE OF CO
TE
TS
TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................... 2
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 4
Motivation for Research ................................................................................................. 4
Organization of Report ................................................................................................... 4
Acknowledgments........................................................................................................... 4
Disclaimer ....................................................................................................................... 5
About Chilenski Strategies ............................................................................................. 5
SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ 6
INTERACTIVE VOICE RESPONSE SURVEY ............................................................................. 8
Direction of Missouri...................................................................................................... 8
Demographic Breakdown ........................................................................................... 8
Gender......................................................................................................................... 9
Age.............................................................................................................................. 9
Party .......................................................................................................................... 10
MoScout Tracking Index .......................................................................................... 10
Election for U.S. President............................................................................................ 11
Demographic Breakdown ......................................................................................... 11
Gender....................................................................................................................... 12
Age............................................................................................................................ 12
Party .......................................................................................................................... 13
Election for U.S. Senate................................................................................................ 14
Gender....................................................................................................................... 15
Age............................................................................................................................ 15
Party .......................................................................................................................... 16
Election for Governor ................................................................................................... 17
Gender....................................................................................................................... 18
Age............................................................................................................................ 18
Party .......................................................................................................................... 19
Election for Lieutenant Governor ................................................................................. 20
Gender....................................................................................................................... 21
Age............................................................................................................................ 21
Party .......................................................................................................................... 22
Election for Attorney General....................................................................................... 23
Gender....................................................................................................................... 24
Age............................................................................................................................ 24
Party .......................................................................................................................... 25
Election for Secretary of State ...................................................................................... 26
MoScout: State of Missouri IVR Study (8/8/2012)
Gender....................................................................................................................... 27
Age............................................................................................................................ 27
Party .......................................................................................................................... 28
Election for State Treasurer .......................................................................................... 29
Gender....................................................................................................................... 30
Age............................................................................................................................ 30
Party .......................................................................................................................... 31
METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................. 32
Questionnaire Development: ........................................................................................ 32
Programming and Pre-Test: .......................................................................................... 32
Data Collection: ............................................................................................................ 32
Data Processing:............................................................................................................ 32
Rounding:...................................................................................................................... 32
Sample: ......................................................................................................................... 32
TOP LINE RESULTS ............................................................................................................ 33
I
TRODUCTIO
Founded in 2006, Missouri Scout is a private news service covering Missouri politics.
Subscribers receive daily updates every morning full of rumors, gossip, insights and
analysis. Lobbyists, donors, activists and elected officials all start their day with
MOScout. The intention of this survey is to provide an added benefit to subscribers letting them know where voter attitudes and opinions fall.
Motivation for Research
The primary purpose of this study was to produce an unbiased, statistically reliable
evaluation of voters opinions about both state issues and the implementation of the 2010
Health Care Law. Specifically, this study was designed to:
Gauge the electorates perception of how things are currently going in Missouri
Determine the current standing of the Democratic and Republican nominees for
the U.S. Presidential and U.S. Senate race in Missouri.
Determine the standings of the primary winning candidates of the Republican and
Democratic parties for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General,
Secretary of State and State Treasurer.
It is important to note that these results represent a snapshot of how voters feel today.
How voters think and feel about a candidate or issue when they go to a polling place in
November may change as the result of learning more information about a topic.
Organization of Report
This report is designed to satisfy those desiring only a summary of the findings as well as
those who are interested in the details. For those who seek a synopsis of the findings,
turn to the Summary section. The bullet point format allows you to quickly review the
key components and observations from the survey. The summary is followed by a
question-by-question review with more in-depth analysis including key cross-tabulations.
The methodologies for the survey are discussed at the back of the report with the
complete top-line results and demographic information.
Acknowledgments
Wed like to thank Dave Drebes for the opportunity to execute this survey. His valuable
insight and wit make these survey projects an exciting venture. The image for the cover
of this document was courtesy of a creative commons image from Walt Stoneburner.
Disclaimer
The statements and conclusions are those of David Chilenski and are not those of
Missouri Scout. Any errors and omissions are the responsibility of the author.
About Chilenski Strategies
Chilenski Strategies is a small and focused survey research firm based in St. Louis,
Missouri, that provides senior level attention to every client. For the last fourteen years,
David Chilenski has provided strategic advice and public opinion research for elected
officials, school districts, and other public agencies to assess community support. With
an understanding that research funds are scarce and need to be used effectively and
efficiently, we use tried and tested methods to assist our clients in making decisions.
Prior to founding Chilenski Strategies, Chilenski worked as an associate at the Tramutola
Company, based in Oakland, California, where he specialized in education measures and
issue campaigns. An experienced researcher, Chilenski provided oversight and
management for a federally funded state wide research project for the Survey Research
Center at Pennsylvania State University. Additionally, Chilenski has provided crucial
opinion research services for candidates for federal, state, county and local office as well
as issues to gain support for schools, hospitals and parks.
Chilenski received his M.A.(Research) in Communication from Saint Louis University
with his thesis focusing on time-series analysis. He also received a B.S. in Business from
Saint Louis University, graduating with summa cum laude honors. Chilenski is a
member in good standing of the American Association for Public Opinion Research.
SUMMARY
The following section is an outline of the main factual findings from the IVR study. For
the readers convenience, we have organized the findings according to the section titles
used in the body of this report. Thus, if you would like to learn more about a particular
finding, simply turn to the appropriate report section.
Direction of Missouri
A majority of Missourians (55%) still say things are off on the wrong track, while 45%
say things are moving in the right direction. In this survey we observed a small, but
notable increase in voters who are now saying that things are moving in the right
direction in Missouri. This is an improvement over what we have found in previous
surveys over the past year.
Presidential Election
In the race for President, Mitt Romney is leading Barack Obama 48% to 47%.
U. S. Senate Election
After a heated primary in the race for U.S. Senate, Todd Akin leads Claire McCaskill
48% to 47%.
Election for Governor
Jay Nixon has a significant lead on challenger Dave Spence. When tested Nixon was
leading the race 53% to 39%.
Election for Lieutenant Governor
The race for Lieutenant Governor was the closest race tested in this survey, with Peter
Kinder leading Susan Montee by 0.2%. Kinder registered 45.6% to Susan Montees
45.4%.
Election for Attorney General
In the race for Attorney General, incumbent Chris Koster leads Ed Martin 46% to 45%.
Election for Secretary of State

In the election to replace outgoing Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, Shane Schoeller
has a clear advantage over Jason Kander 46% to 37%.
Election for State Treasurer
The race for State Treasurer pits incumbent Clint Zweifel against Cole McNary. Clint
Zweifel has a significant lead over Cole McNary 45% to 37%.
I
TERACTIVE VOICE RESPO
SE SURVEY
What follows is a question by question summary of the results:
Direction of Missouri
A majority of Missourians (55%) still say things are off on the wrong track, while 45%
say things are moving in the right direction. In this survey we observed a small, but
notable increase in voters who are now saying that things are moving in the right
direction in Missouri. This is an improvement over what we have found in previous
surveys over the past year.
Question: In general, are things in Missouri headed in the right direction, or are things
off on the wrong track?
60
54.8
50
45.2
40
30
20
10
0
RIGHT DIRECTION
WRONG TRACK
Demographic Breakdown
Female respondents were slightly more pessimistic than their male counterparts.
Younger voters and senior citizens were more pessimistic than those aged 50-64.
Independents more closely resembled Republicans when it came to this question.
Gender
70%
58%
60%
51%
49%
50%
42%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Male
Female
Age
60%
57%
56%
49%
50%
51%
44%
43%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
18-49
50-64
65+
Party
70%
63%
58%
60%
58%
50%
42%
40%
42%
37%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Republican
Democrat
Independent
MoScout Tracking Index
Its interesting to note that since we last tested this question, there has been a small but
significant increase in voters who are saying things are going in the right direction.
However, a majority of voters still think things are off on the wrong track.
RIGHT DIRECTION
WRONG TRACK
65
62
60
60
55
55
50
45
45
40
40
38
35
30
25
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
10
Election for U.S. President
In the race for President, Mitt Romney is leading Barack Obama 48% to 47%.
Question: If the election for President was today, would you vote for Barack Obama,
the Democrat or Mitt Romney the Republican?
60
50
47.9
46.8
40
30
20
10
5.3
0
Obama
Romney
Undecided
There was little difference between the genders. In all our questions, Democrats polled
better than Republicans in the age group 50-64*. As can be expected, partisan affiliation
is a very good indicator of support. Notably, Independents are breaking towards Romney
with only 9% of Independents undecided.
*Readers 0ote: The reason why Democrats had much stronger support in the 50-64 Age
Group is because Independents in this survey for this demographic strongly leaned
towards Democrats.
11
Gender
60%
50%
46%
48%
47%
48%
40%
30%
20%
10%
6%
5%
0%
Male
Female
Age
60%
53%
50%
46%
53%
48%
43%
42%
40%
30%
20%
10%
6%
5%
4%
0%
18-49
50-64
65+
12
Party
100%
91%
90%
85%
80%
70%
60%
48%
50%
43%
40%
30%
20%
12%
10%
9%
5%
3%
4%
0%
Republican
Democrat
Independent
13
Election for U.S. Senate

After a heated primary in the race for U.S. Senate, Todd Akin leads Claire McCaskill
48% to 47%.
Question: And for U.S. Senator, if the election was today, would you vote for Todd Akin,
the Republican or Claire McCaskill, the Democrat?
60
50
47.7
46.8
40
30
20
10
5.5
0
Akin
McCaskill
Undecided
There was little difference between genders. As in all our questions, Democrats polled
better than Republicans in the age group 50-64. Independents slightly (1%) favor Akin
with 10% still undecided.
14
Gender
60%
50%
47%
48%
46%
47%
40%
30%
20%
10%
6%
5%
0%
Male
Female
Age
60%
54%
50%
54%
48%
44%
43%
40%
40%
30%
20%
10%
7%
6%
3%
0%
18-49
50-64
65+
15
Party
100%
90%
90%
85%
80%
70%
60%
50%
46% 45%
40%
30%
20%
12%
10%
10%
3%
6%
4%
0%
Republican
Democrat
Independent
16
Election for Governor

Jay Nixon has a significant lead on challenger Dave Spence. When tested Nixon was
leading the race 53% to 39%.
Question: And for Governor, if the election was today, would you vote for Jay 0ixon,
the Democrat or Dave Spence, the Republican?
60
52.7
50
38.5
40
30
20
8.8
10
0
Nixon
Spence
Undecided
In building a big lead, Jay Nixon leads in every sub-demographic except Republican
Party members and has a 9 point lead among Independents.
17
Gender
60%
55%
51%
50%
39%
40%
38%
30%
20%
10%
10%
7%
0%
Male
Female
Age
70%
58%
60%
51%
50%
50%
43%
40%
37%
36%
30%
20%
13%
10%
6%
5%
0%
18-49
50-64
65+
18
Party
100%
89%
90%
80%
67%
70%
60%
50%
50%
41%
40%
30%
24%
20%
9%
8%
10%
9%
3%
0%
Republican
Democrat
Independent
19
Election for Lieutenant Governor

The race for Lieutenant Governor was the closest race tested in this survey, with Peter
Kinder leading Susan Montee by 0.2%. Kinder registered 45.6% to Susan Montees
45.4%.
Question: And for Lieutenant Governor if the election was today, would you vote for
Peter Kinder, the Republican or Susan Montee, the Democrat?
50
45.6
45.4
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
9
10
5
0
Kinder
Montee
Undecided
By gender, Kinder leads among men and Montee among women. As in all our questions,
Democrats polled better than Republicans in the age group 50-64. Independents favor Montee by
2% with 15% of Independents still undecided.
20
Gender
60%
50%
48%
46%
44%
45%
40%
30%
20%
11%
10%
7%
0%
Male
Female
Age
60%
50%
51%
49%
46% 45%
41%
41%
40%
30%
20%
10%
9%
8%
10%
0%
18-49
50-64
65+
21
Party
100%
90%
86%
84%
80%
70%
60%
50%
42% 44%
40%
30%
20%
15%
12%
10%
9%
3%
5%
0%
Republican
Democrat
Independent
22
Election for Attorney General
In the race for Attorney General, Chris Koster leads Ed Martin 46% to 45%.
Question: And for Attorney General if the election was today, would you vote for Chris
Koster, the Democrat or Ed Martin, the Republican?
50
46.2
44.7
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
9.1
10
5
0
Koster
Martin
Undecided
There was little difference between genders. As in all our questions, Democrats polled
better than Republicans in the age group 50-64. Martin leads with independents by 3
points with 14% of Independents still undecided.
23
Gender
50%
47%
46%
45%
45%
44%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
11%
10%
7%
5%
0%
Male
Female
Age
60%
52%
48%
50%
46% 47%
42%
38%
40%
30%
20%
11%
10%
10%
7%
0%
18-49
50-64
65+
24
Party
100%
87%
90%
79%
80%
70%
60%
50%
42%
45%
40%
30%
20%
15%
10%
14%
6%
5%
8%
0%
Republican
Democrat
Independent
25
Election for Secretary of State

In the election to replace outgoing Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, Shane Schoeller
has a clear advantage over Jason Kander 46% to 37%.
Question: And for Secretary of State if the election was today, would you vote for Shane
Schoeller, the Republican or Jason Kander, the Democrat?
50
45.8
45
40
37.2
35
30
25
20
17
15
10
5
0
Schoeller
Kander
Undecided
Schoeller leads in every demographic except those aged 50-64 and Democrats. 25% of
Independents are still undecided.
26
Gender
60%
50%
48%
44%
39%
40%
36%
30%
20%
20%
13%
10%
0%
Male
Female
Age
60%
50%
49%
49%
46%
40%
37%
34%
33%
30%
20%
17%
17%
17%
10%
0%
18-49
50-64
65+
27
Party
90%
83%
78%
80%
70%
60%
50%
42%
40%
32%
30%
26%
20%
16%
7%
10%
10%
6%
0%
Republican
Democrat
Independent
28
Election for State Treasurer

The race for State Treasurer pits incumbent Clint Zweifel against Cole McNary. Clint
Zweifel has a significant lead over Cole McNary 45% to 37%.
Question: And for State Treasurer if the election was today, would you vote for Clint
Zweifel, the Democrat or Cole Mc0ary, the Republican?
50
45
44.6
40
37.1
35
30
25
18.3
20
15
10
5
0
Zweifel
McNary
Undecided
Zweifel leads strongly with males, and with those under the age of 65. Independents
favor Zwiefel by 1 point with 29% of Independents still undecided.
29
Gender
60%
51%
50%
39%
40%
40%
34%
30%
21%
20%
15%
10%
0%
Male
Female
Age
60%
53%
50%
42%
40%
41% 42%
38%
31%
30%
20%
20%
18%
16%
10%
0%
18-49
50-64
65+
30
Party
90%
83%
80%
68%
70%
60%
50%
40%
36% 35%
29%
30%
20%
20%
15%
12%
10%
3%
0%
Republican
Democrat
Independent
31
METHODOLOGY
The following sections outline the methodology used in the study, as well as the
motivation for using certain techniques
Questionnaire Development: Chilenski Strategies worked closely with Missouri Scout
to develop a questionnaire that covered the topics of interest.
Programming and Pre-Test: Prior to fielding the survey, the questionnaire was
recorded by a male with a Midwestern dialect. The integrity of the questionnaire was
pre-tested internally by Chilenski Strategies before fielded. The script is available at the
end of this document
Data Collection: The survey data was collected through Interactive Voice Response
telephone interviewing. Interviews were conducted during the evening of August 8, 2012
between 5:30 to 9:00pm. The interviews averaged 180 seconds in length.
Data Processing: Data processing consisted of reviewing aggregated information for
inconsistency, coding and recoding responses, and preparing frequency analyses and
cross-tabulations.
Rounding: Number that end in 0.5 our higher are rounded up to the nearest whole
number, whereas numbers that end in 0.4 or lower are rounded down to the nearest whole
number. These same rounding rules are also applied, when needed, to arrive at numbers
that include a decimal place in constructing figures and charts. Occasionally, these
rounding rules lead to small discrepancies in the first decimal place when comparing
tables and charts for a given question.
Sample: The survey was administered to a random sample of registered voters who are
likely to participate in the November 2012 election. Consistent with the profile of this
universe, respondents were recruited to represent a particular combination of age, gender
and voting history. In the reviewing the final results, demographics were weighted by
gender, age and party affiliation to reflect the expected November 2012 universe of
voters.
The margin of error of the top-line responses displayed for the 663 respondents in this
survey is +/- 3.8%. Within this report, there are figures and tables that show how
responses to certain questions varied by subgroups such as age, gender and partisan
affiliation. Because the margin of error grows geometrically as the sample size
decreases, the reader should use caution when generalizing and interpreting the small
subgroups.
32
TOP LI
E RESULTS
Respondents: 663 registered voters living in Missouri, with working telephones, who are
likely to vote in 0ovember 2012. The survey was fielded August 8, 2012 and has a
margin of error of 3.8%.
Wed like to get your opinion about things in Missouri, this survey is sponsored by the
Missouri media, using your touch tone phone, please answer these few questions about
the upcoming elections.
SECTION 1: DIRECTION OF MISSOURI
1. In general, are things in Missouri headed in the right direction, or are things off on the
wrong track? Press 1 for Right Direction, Press 2 for Wrong Track.
RIGHT DIRECTION
WRONG TRACK
45.2
54.8
SECTION 2: BALLOT MATCH-UPS
2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Barack Obama, the
Democrat or Mitt Romney the Republican? Press 1 for Barack Obama, Press 2 for
Mitt Romney, Press 3 if you are undecided
Obama
Romney
Undecided
46.8
47.9
5.3
3. And for U.S. Senator, if the election was today, would you vote for Todd Akin, the
Republican or Claire McCaskill, the Democrat? Press 1 for Todd Akin, Press 2 for
Claire McCaskill, Press 3 if you are undecided
Akin
McCaskill
Undecided
47.7
46.8
5.5
33
4. And for Governor, if the election was today, would you vote for Jay Nixon, the
Democrat or Dave Spence, the Republican? Press 1 for Jay Nixon, Press 2 for Dave
Spence, Press 3 if you are undecided
Nixon
Spence
Undecided
52.7
38.5
8.8
5. And for Lieutenant Governor if the election was today, would you vote for Peter
Kinder, the Republican or Susan Montee, the Democrat? Press 1 for Peter Kinder,
Press 2 for Susan Montee, Press 3 if you are undecided
Kinder
Montee
Undecided
45.6
45.4
9.0
6. And for Attorney General if the election was today, would you vote for Chris Koster,
the Democrat or Ed Martin, the Republican? Press 1 for Chris Koster, Press 2 for Ed
Martin, Press 3 if you are undecided
Koster
Martin
Undecided
46.2
44.7
9.1
7. And for Secretary of State if the election was today, would you vote for Shane
Schoeller, the Republican or Jason Kander, the Democrat? Press 1 for Shane
Schoeller, Press 2 for Jason Kander, Press 3 if you are undecided
Schoeller
Kander
Undecided
45.8
37.2
17.0
8. And for State Treasurer if the election was today, would you vote for Clint Zweifel,
the Democrat or Cole McNary, the Republican? Press 1 for Clint Zweifel, Press 2 for
Cole McNary, Press 3 if you are undecided
Zweifel
McNary
Undecided
44.6
37.1
18.3
34
SECTION 3: DEMOGRAPHICS
9. For statistical purposes only, are you a man or woman? Press 1 for man, press 2 for
woman.
MALE
FEMALE
44.9
55.1
10. What is your age? If you are under the age of 50 Press 1. If you are aged 50 to 64
Press 2. If you are 65 or older Press 3.
Age 18-49
Age 50-64
Age 65+
40.5
29.2
30.3
11. Do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat or Independent? Press 1 for

Republican, Press 2 for Democrat, Press 3 for Independent
Republican
Democrat
Independent
35.9
31.0
33.1
This survey sponsored by Missouri Scout 314-255-5210. Thank you for your time.
35

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INTERACTIVE VOICE RESPONSE STUDY

Election for Secretary of State

MoScout Tracking Index

Election for U.S. President

Election for U.S. Senate

Election for Governor

Election for Lieutenant Governor

Election for Attorney General

Election for Secretary of State

Election for State Treasurer

SECTION 2: BALLOT MATCH-UPS

11. Do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat or Independent? Press 1 for

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