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  • Smoke Impact Summary Aug. 17

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    Figures 5 – 8 show forecast 24‐hour forward trajectories every 6 hours for the next 24 hours for the Chips fire, and Barry Point and Fort complexes. Trajectories for the other fires can be roughly interpolated to give an idea of upper‐level smoke transport for those fires. Release heights are 500, 1000, and 1500 meters above ground level (AGL). Trajectories for this afternoon and early evening are predicted to carry smoke aloft to the north for all fires and levels, except the lower (500m and 1000m) trajectories for the Chips, which are predicted to advect to the SE.

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    Figures 5 – 8 show forecast 24‐hour forward trajectories every 6 hours for the next 24 hours for the Chips fire, and Barry Point and Fort complexes. Trajectories for the other fires can be roughly interpolated to give an idea of upper‐level smoke transport for those fires. Release heights are 500, 1000, and 1500 meters above ground level (AGL). Trajectories for this afternoon and early evening are predicted to carry smoke aloft to the north for all fires and levels, except the lower (500m and 1000m) trajectories for the Chips, which are predicted to advect to the SE.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    1K views9 pages

    Smoke Impact Summary Aug. 17

    Uploaded by

    YubaNet
    Figures 5 – 8 show forecast 24‐hour forward trajectories every 6 hours for the next 24 hours for the Chips fire, and Barry Point and Fort complexes. Trajectories for the other fires can be roughly interpolated to give an idea of upper‐level smoke transport for those fires. Release heights are 500, 1000, and 1500 meters above ground level (AGL). Trajectories for this afternoon and early evening are predicted to carry smoke aloft to the north for all fires and levels, except the lower (500m and 1000m) trajectories for the Chips, which are predicted to advect to the SE.

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    Smoke Impacts Summary Northern CA Fires, August 17, 2012

    PreparedbyMiriamRorig(USDAFSAirFireTeam)
    The statements below are those of the author and do not represent official USFS announcements, v iew s, or policy . They are meant as a research discussion of models and forecast data only . CurrentConditions: Modeloutputthismorning(Figure1)continuestopredicthighsmoke concentrationsneartoallthelargenorthernCAfires.Asusual,itisnotaccurately capturingthedrainageflowsbecauseofinadequateresolution.NeartheChipsfire themodelshowshighestconcentrationstotheNEandSWofthefire,butmissesthe FeatherRiverdrainage.Monitorsthismorningshowmoderateconcentrationsat EBAM5andEBAM6(about125g/m3)andhighvaluesatEBAM11(above400 g/m3)intheFeatherRiverdrainage.Yesterdaysmodelrunpredictedmoderateto highPM2.5concentrationsintheMedfordarea,buttheORDEQmonitordidnot showanythingabovebackgroundlevels.Mysuspicionthatthemodelsareover predictingwaslikelycorrect.Nevertheless,lowtomoderateconcentrationswere predictedsouthoftheFortComplex,andtheEBAMatHappyCamprecordedPM2.5 hourlyvaluesabout80g/m3middayyesterday. Thismorningsvisiblesatellitepicture(Figure2)showssmokefromseveralfires burninginthewesternUS.TheNOAAHazardMappingsmokeproduct(notshown) foryesterdayshowssmokeovervirtuallyallofnorthernCA. ModelOutput: Asdrainageflowgiveswaytothedaytimewinds,thedispersionmodelsshow smokebeingcarriedtoNEofthemajornorthernCAfiresthisafternoon(Figure3). OnceagaintherearepredictedmoderatetohighconcentrationsnearMedfordfrom theFortComplex,butthisdidnthappenyesterday,andmaynottoday(notenough detailinthemodelterrainresolutiontoaccuratelycapturethis).Againthis afternoon,surfacesmokeconcentrationsarepredictedtobehighesttothenorth andeastoftheReadingandChips,andFortfires,andsouthoftheBarryPoint complex. Expectdrainageflowstosetupagainovernight,forpredictedhighconcentrations nearthefiresagaininthemorning.Themodelsareshowingpossiblehigh concentrationsintheKlamathFallsareatomorrowmorning(Figure4),becauseof combinedeffectsfromtheFortandBarryPointcomplexes.Thereisnochangeinthe mixingheightsandventilationrates,whicharepredictedtobegoodforsmoke dispersionduringtheday(highmixingheights)inthemidtolateafternoonhours, butpoorovernightintotheearlymorninghours(lowmixingheightsandwind speeds).

    Figures58showforecast24hourforwardtrajectoriesevery6hoursforthenext 24hoursfortheChipsfire,andBarryPointandFortcomplexes.Trajectoriesforthe otherfirescanberoughlyinterpolatedtogiveanideaofupperlevelsmoke transportforthosefires.Releaseheightsare500,1000,and1500metersabove groundlevel(AGL).Trajectoriesforthisafternoonandearlyeveningarepredicted tocarrysmokealofttothenorthforallfiresandlevels,exceptthelower(500mand 1000m)trajectoriesfortheChips,whicharepredictedtoadvecttotheSE.Overnight alltrajectoriesareshowingnorthwardtransport,andbymorningthepredictionis for1000mand1500mtrajectoriestocontinueinanortherlydirection,while500m trajectoriesareforecasttocarryanysmokealoftatthatleveltotheNE.Boththis eveningandtomorrowmorningtheprofileviewsshowthepossibilityofsmoke aloft(at500m)beingtransportedtothesurface,affectingdownwindareastothe northandnortheastofthefires.

    Figure1.PredictedsmokeeffectsfromthenorthernCAfiresat5AMPDT,August17. Greensindicatelowconcentrations,yellowandorangearemoderate concentrations,andredandpurplearehighconcentrations.

    Figure2.Visiblesatellitepicturefor7:00AMPDT,August17.

    Figure3.PredictedsmokeeffectsfromnorthernCAfiresat5PMPDT,August17. Greensindicatelowconcentrations,yellowandorangearemoderate concentrations,andredandpurplearehighconcentrations.

    Figure4.PredictedsmokeeffectsfromnorthernCAfiresat6AMPDT,August18. Greensindicatelowconcentrations,yellowandorangearemoderate concentrations,andredandpurplearehighconcentrations.

    Figure5.24hourforwardtrajectoriesfortheChips,BarryPoint,andFortfires, startingat12:00PMPDT,Aug17,withreleaseheightsof500(red)1000(blue)and 1500(green)metersAGL.

    Figure6.24hourforwardtrajectoriesfortheChips,BarryPoint,andFortfires, startingat6:00PMPDT,Aug17,withreleaseheightsof500(red)1000(blue)and 1500(green)metersAGL.

    Figure7.24hourforwardtrajectoriesfortheChips,BarryPoint,andFortfires, startingat12:00AMPDT,Aug18,withreleaseheightsof500(red)1000(blue)and 1500(green)metersAGL.

    Figure8.24hourforwardtrajectoriesfortheChips,BarryPoint,andFortfires, startingat6:00AMPDT,Aug18,withreleaseheightsof500(red)1000(blue)and 1500(green)metersAGL.

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