Feb 09, 2012:

The ruble appreciated for a sixth day against the dollar as crude climbed, boosting the outlook for the currency of the worlds biggest energy exporter. The Russian currency added 0.4 percent to 29.6775 by 10:49 a.m. in Moscow. The ruble was little changed at 39.4815 per euro and up 0.2 percent at 34.0893 versus the central banks target dollar-euro basket. Oil futures climbed as much as 49 cents to $99.20 a barrel in New York as a U.S. government report showed refineries processed more crude last week. The 14-day relative strength index for the rubles rate against the U.S. currency dropped to 25.1022, the lowest on a closing basis since May 2011. A reading lower than 30 signals the currency may have rallied too quickly and may weaken. Investors pared bets the ruble would depreciate, with non- deliverable forwards showing the Russian currency at 30.0352 per dollar in three months, compared with expectations of 30.0880 yesterday. Russias 2020 dollar bonds were little changed, with the yield at 4.274 percent.

Feb 13, 2012

The ruble strengthened against the dollar, adding to last weeks gain, after Greeces parliament approved austerity measures to secure an international bailout, easing concern over Europes debt crisis. The Russian currency appreciated 0.6 percent to 29.8999 per dollar as of 10:04 a.m. in Moscow, heading for its biggest daily gain since Feb. 7. The ruble was little changed at 39.625 per euro and 0.4 percent stronger at 34.2707 against the central banks target dollar-euro basket. Demand for Russian exports in the European Union, the countrys biggest trading partner, may rally after Greece passed the measures necessary to secure a 130 billioneuro ($172 billion) second aid package. Brent crude rose 0.8 percent to $118.28 a barrel. Russias $3.5 billion of bonds due 2020 fell, pushing the yield up three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 4.268 percent. Dollar-denominated notes due 2015 yielded four basis points more than on Feb. 10, at 2.945 percent. Investors pared bets the Russian currency would weaken, with non-deliverable forwards showing the ruble at 30.2749 per dollar in three months, compared with expectations of 30.42 per dollar on Feb. 10.

Mar 19, 2012:

The ruble strengthened against the dollar for a fifth day and the yield on Russias dollardenominated bonds fell amid speculation exporters are converting revenues into the Russian currency to pay taxes. The Russian currency appreciated 0.3 percent to 29.2045 per dollar at the close in Moscow, the strongest level since Feb. 29. The yield on the countrys $3.5 billion of debt due 2020 dropped three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 3.91 percent. The tax period is providing us with good dollar supply, Dmitry Sinitsyn, head of foreign exchange in Moscow at Credit Suisse Group AG, said by e-mail. Risk-on sentiment is helping the ruble -- the market feels safe being long on it, with stocks and oil trending upwards. Companies convert revenues from abroad into rubles to pay taxes in the second half of every month, boosting the Russian currency. Exporters may sell between $3 billion to $4 billion against the ruble this week, Sinitsyn said. Oil, Russias chief export earner, jumped 0.8 percent to $107.91 per barrel in New York after data submitted to the Joint Organization Data Initiative showed Saudi Arabia pumped 9.87 million barrels a day in January, a sign of higher demand. Urals crude (EUCRURNW), the main Russian blend of the commodity, lost 0.6 percent to $122.30 per barrel, within $2.96 of a 3 1/2-year high.

Increasing Bets
The ruble gained less than 0.1 percent to 38.555 per euro and 0.2 percent to 33.4122 against the central banks target dollar-euro basket. Investors pared bets on the currency weakening, with non-deliverable forwards showing the ruble at 29.5838 per dollar in three months, compared with expectations of 29.605 per dollar on March 16. Russias Eurobonds due 2015 rose for the first time in four days, pushing the yield down four basis points to 2.284 percent. Dollar-denominated debt maturing in 2015 issued by OAO Sberbank, Russias largest lender, yielded 14 basis points less than on March 16 at 3.475 percent, while the yield on notes due the same year from state gas monopoly OAO Gazprom fell five basis points to 3.312 percent. The cost of protecting Russian debt against non-payment for five years using creditdefault swaps dropped two basis points to 164 basis points, down from last years peak of 338 on Oct. 4, according to data provider CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc. and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market.

Mar 21, 2012-08-28The ruble strengthened against the central banks target dollar-euro
basket and yields on local- currency debt fell after a report showed U.S. crude stockpiles dropped last week, signaling higher demand for Russias chief export earner. The ruble appreciated as much as 0.2 percent before trading up 0.1 percent at 33.4865 against the basket at the close in Moscow, paring yesterdays loss. Russias 114 billion rubles ($3.9 billion) of local OFZ bonds due March 2021 rose for the first day in three, pushing the yield down one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 7.82 percent. Crude futures gained 0.4 percent to $106.54 per barrel in New York after the Americal Petroleum Institute said U.S. supplies shrank by 1.4 million barrels last week. Oil and gas together provide about 17 percent of Russias gross domestic product and 50 percent of state revenue, according to government estimates. Stable global prices, oil prices especially, are the main reason, Vladimir Musyankov, senior currency trader at OAO TransCreditBank in Moscow, said by e-mail. Taxes to be paid in Russia next week are also contributing to the strong ruble. A total 900 billion rubles ($31 billion) may be due in taxes this month, Alexei Moiseev, chief economist at VTB Capital in Moscow, said by e-mail March 20. Exporters convert foreign exchange revenues into rubles to pay the government in the second half of every month, boosting the Russian currency. People are waiting for a huge supply of dollars from exporters due to the tax period this and next week, so theyre keeping short on the basket against the ruble, Aleksey Kulakov, a currency trader at OAO Promsvyazbank in Moscow, said by e-mail. The ruble was 0.2 percent stronger at 38.64 per euro and steady at 29.27 per dollar. Investors increased bets on the currency weakening, with non-deliverable forwards showing the ruble at 29.6497 per dollar in three months, compared with expectations of 29.6288 per dollar yesterday.
Apr 03, 2012

The ruble strengthened against the dollar for a third day and yields on Russias dollardenominated Eurobonds fell as better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data spurred demand for riskier assets. The Russian currency appreciated 0.3 percent to 29.28 per dollar as of 10:11 a.m. in Moscow, heading for the strongest close since March 27. The countrys $3.5 billion of bonds due 2020 rose, pushing the yield down four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 3.983 percent.

Higher-yielding assets like Russian bonds stand to gain after the U.S. Institute for Supply Managements factory index climbed to 53.4 last month from 52.4 in February, beating estimates in a Bloomberg News survey and signalling improving growth prospects in the worlds largest economy. Urals crude oil, Russias chief export, rose 1.7 percent to $121.69 per barrel by yesterdays close. The ruble was little changed at 39.0702 per euro and 33.6936 against the central banks target dollar-euro basket. Investors pared bets on the currency weakening, with nondeliverable forwards showing the ruble at 29.6604 per dollar in three months, compared with expectations of 29.7 per dollar yesterday.
May 11, 2012

The ruble depreciated to the weakest level against the dollar in almost three months and Russias local bonds fell as oil, the countrys chief export earner, declined in New York. The Russian currency depreciated as much as 0.6 percent before trading down less than 0.1 percent at 30.113 per dollar by the close in Moscow, the lowest since Feb. 16. The yield on 119 billion rubles ($3.9 billion) of OFZ bonds due 2021 rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 8.04 percent. Crude futures slipped 0.2 percent to $96.86 per barrel in New York, poised for a second weekly drop. Oil may extend declines next week amid rising U.S. stockpiles and concern the debt crisis in Europe will spread, according to a Bloomberg survey. We dont see too many long positions in the ruble, Sergey Fishgoyt, deputy head of foreign exchange at Otkritie Bank in Moscow, said by e-mail. The market doesnt look in panic, we will watch the continuing dynamics in the international markets. Russias trade surplus narrowed to $19.4 billion in March from a revised $20.3 billion in the previous month, the central bank said on its website today. That compares with expectations of $20.9 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 economists. The Russian currency is more likely to weaken than strengthen against the dollar next week, Fishgoyt said. Bank Rossii manages the ruble within a so-called floating corridor against a basket of dollars and euros to limit swings that erode exporters competitiveness. The current level against the basket implies the bank may be buying about $120 million a day in other currencies against the ruble, according to Otkrities estimates.

Bets on Weakening
Investors increased bets on the currency weakening, with non-deliverable forwards showing the ruble at 30.568 per dollar in three months, compared with expectations of

30.4706 per dollar yesterday. The ruble was little changed at 39.0325 per euro and 34.1268 against the basket. The yield on Russian Eurobonds due 2015 rose two basis points to 2.175 percent. Similar-maturity dollar-denominated notes from OAO Sberbank, the countrys largest lender, yielded two basis points less than yesterday at 3.384 percent, while the yield on 2015 Eurobonds issued by state gas monopoly OAO Gazprom dropped two basis points to 3.445 percent.

May 15, 2012-08-28 The cost of insuring Russian debt against nonpayment over five years with credit default swaps jumped the most this year and the ruble depreciated for a seventh day as oil, the countrys main export, declined. Five-year Russian default swaps climbed 17 basis points, or 0.17 percentage point, to 225 basis points, poised for the biggest daily gain since Dec. 6. The ruble lost 0.6 percent to 30.4075 per dollar by the 7 p.m. close in Moscow, the weakest since Jan. 30. Brent crude dropped 1.3 percent to $110.82 per barrel after Saudi Arabias petroleum minister said the oil blend should trade at about $100 a barrel. Greece failed to agree on a unity government and officials in Europe considered the nations possible exit from the euro, a sign demand for the commodity in Europe may decline. The European Union is Russias largest trading partner. There is ample room for a violent correction in the period ahead, especially if the oil price continues to go south, Benoit Anne, head of emerging-markets strategy at Societe Generale SA in London, wrote in an e-mailed note. The ruble has so far been relatively immune to the general sell-off in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, but this will probably not last long. Investors increased bets on the ruble weakening, with non- deliverable forwards showing it at 30.8638 per dollar in three months, compared with expectations of 30.6070 per dollar on May 11. The Russian currency was little changed at 39.055 per euro and lost 0.3 percent to 34.2989 against the central banks target dollar-euro basket. Russias $2 billion of Eurobonds due 2015 fell for a fifth day, increasing the yield by two basis points to 2.216 percent. Similar-maturity dollar-denominated bonds issued by OAO Sberbank, Russias largest lender, yielded three basis points more than on May 11 at 3.47 percent, while the yield on state gas monopoly OAO Gazproms 2015 Eurobonds fell one basis point to 3.513 percent.

June 14, 2012

The ruble depreciated for the first day in three after Moodys Investors Service downgraded the debt ratings of Spain and Cyprus. The Russian currency lost 0.5 percent to 32.5975 per dollar by the close in Moscow. The ruble lost 0.7 percent to 41.0502 per euro and 0.6 percent to 36.4012 against the central banks target dollar-euro basket. Moodys cut Spains rating three steps to Baa3 yesterday, two levels below Russias level of Baa1, signaling Europes debt crisis is deepening. The ratings service lowered Cypruss rating to Ba3 from Ba1. Brent crude dropped 0.5 percent to $96.62 per barrel, its sixth day of losses. The rubles weakness mainly came from oil falling, Igor Akinshin, a currency trader at Alfa Bank in Moscow, said by e- mail. The fundamentals are not looking good. The rubles declines were limited today by companies preparing for monthly tax payments, Akinshin said. Exporters convert revenue from abroad into rubles to pay the Russian government in the second half of every month, boosting the currency. Investors increased bets on the currency weakening, with non-deliverable forwards showing the ruble at 33.1250 per dollar in three months.
June 19, 2012

The ruble lost the most against the central banks target dollar-euro basket in almost a week as Greek steps toward renegotiating its bailout austerity measures hurt prices for oil, Russias main export. The Russian currency depreciated 0.4 percent to 36.335 against the basket by the close in Moscow, the biggest loss since June 14. The countrys 28 billion rubles ($858 million) of bonds due 2027 fell, increasing the yield by three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 8.89 percent. Urals retreated 0.5 percent to $93.88 per barrel after Evangelos Venizelos, head of Greeces Pasok party, said he agreed with the leader of the Democratic Left party to put together a team to renogotiate some of the terms included in the countrys international rescue. Its in line with the headlines from Europe, and the major driver is oil, Sergey Fishgoyt, deputy head of foreign exchange at Moscow-based brokerage Otkritie Financial Corp., said by e-mail. The selloff will probably continue unless global sentiment improves, he said.

The ruble dropped 0.7 percent to 41.0925 per euro and was little changed at 32.4425 per dollar. Investors pared bets on the currency weakening, with non-deliverable forwards showing the ruble at 32.9212 per dollar in three months, compared with expectations of 32.9845 per dollar yesterday.
June 28, 2012

The ruble depreciated against the dollar for a second day and yields on Russias local debt rose as oil, the countrys main export, declined. The Russian currency weakened 0.4 percent to 33.13 per dollar by the close in Moscow. The countrys 28 billion rubles ($845 million) of local OFZ bonds due 2027 declined, raising the yield by one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 8.9 percent. Brent crude slipped 1.7 percent to $91.86 per barrel before a European-Union summit in Brussels to discuss the regions debt crisis. Oil and gas together contribute about 50 percent of Russias state revenue, according to government estimates. Oil is off, and thats the main driver in the short term for the ruble, Hans Gustafson, an emerging-markets strategist at Swedbank AB (SWEDA) in Stockholm, said by e-mail. The ruble lost 0.2 percent to 41.18 per euro and was little changed at 36.7525 against the central banks target dollar-euro basket. Investors increased bets on the currency weakening, with non-deliverable forwards showing the ruble at 33.6659 per dollar in three months, compared with expectations of 33.533 per dollar yesterday. The ruble may weaken 2 percent to 33.80 per dollar next week after the end of the monthly tax period, according to Vadim Kuchinskiy, a London-based currency trader at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Exporters convert revenue from abroad in the second half of every month to pay the government, boosting the Russian currency.
July 9 2012

The ruble depreciated for a fourth day against the dollar and yields on Russias international bonds rose after signs global economic growth is slowing cut demand for riskier assets. The Russian currency lost 0.5 percent to 32.9825 per dollar by the close in Moscow, the weakest level since June 28. The countrys $2 billion of Eurobonds due April 2017 fell, increasing the yield by two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 2.967 percent. Investors pared bets on higher-yielding assets after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said downward pressure on the worlds second-biggest economy is still relatively large. Urals crude oil, Russias main export, dropped 2 percent to $98.12 per barrel by the July

6 close after the U.S. Labor Department reported non-farm payrolls increased less than expected last month. The commodity rose 0.5 percent to $98.61 per barrel today. Local players see the ruble lower by the end of the summer, Kirill Grishanov, head of foreign-exchange and interest-rate trading at OAO Promsvyazbank in Moscow, said by e- mail. The street is short on the ruble now, and expects it to fall further to 34 or 35 by September. The ruble weakened 0.3 percent to 40.543 per euro and 0.4 percent to 36.3847 against the central banks target dollar-euro basket. Investors increased bets on the currency weakening, with non-deliverable forwards showing the ruble at 33.506 per dollar in three months, compared with expectations of 33.3865 per dollar on July 6.
July 13, 2012

The ruble appreciated against the dollar and yields on Russias international debt declined as oil, the nations main export, advanced. The Russian currency gained 0.5 percent to 32.627 per dollar by the close in Moscow, the strongest since July 5. That gave it a 0.6 percent increase in the week. The governments $3 billion of Eurobonds due 2042 rose, cutting the yield 16 basis points, or 0.16 percentage point, to 4.771 percent. Brent crude jumped 1.1 percent to $102.22 per barrel amid speculation China will boost stimulus to spur a recovery. Oil and gas together contribute about 50 percent of Russias state revenue, according to the governments estimates. Key Chinese economic data lent a positive background to the morning session, Vladimir Kolychev, chief economist at Societe Generale SAs OAO Rosbank (ROSB) unit in Moscow, wrote in a research note to clients. The rise in oil prices is raising interest in the ruble. The ruble was little changed at 39.95 per euro and rallied 0.2 percent to 35.9224 against the central banks dollar-euro basket. Investors pared bets on the currency weakening, with non-deliverable forwards showing the ruble at 33.156 per dollar in three months, compared with expectations of 33.2825 per dollar yesterday.

Aug 10, 2012

The ruble depreciated the most in more than a week against the dollar as oil declined andRussias central bank left its main interest rates unchanged for the eighth month. The Russian currency weakened as much as 1 percent after Bank Rossii decided to leave rates unchanged, and traded 0.5 percent lower at 31.8275 at the close in Moscow. The ruble fell 0.4 percent versus the euro to 39.1841. Russia is the only major emerging economy that hasnt lowered borrowing costs this year. Policy makers left refinancing, repo and deposit rates unchanged at 8 percent, 5.25 percent and 4 percent respectively today, Bank Rossii said in an e-mailed statement. Oil, the countrys main export, slid as a collapse in Chinas export growth added to signs of global economic weakening. The probability of a correction is considerable at the moment, said Nikolay Podguzov, fixed-income strategist at VTB Capital, in a research note. Hedging strategies aimed at protecting against risks of higher ruble volatility could be useful at the moment. Crude for September delivery dropped as much as 1.8 percent to $91.71 a barrel in New York. Investor increased bets on further ruble weakening, with non-deliverable forwards showing the currency retreating to 32.3415 in three months, compared with 32.2015 per dollar yesterday. Russian economic growth fell to the slowest pace in a year in the second quarter as weaker growth in China and Europes debt crisis curbed demand for its commodities exports, the Federal Statistics Service reported today. Gross domestic product rose 4 percent from a year earlier, the weakest pace since the same quarter of 2011 and down from 4.9 percent in the January-March period.
Aug 14, 2012

Ruble Snaps Three Days Of Declines As Oil Advances

The ruble strengthened for the first time in four days against the dollar and bonds gained as oil rallied and better-than-expected economic data in Europes largest economies boosted the outlook for Russian exports. The Russian currency appreciated less than 0.1 percent to 31.8350 per dollar as of 7 p.m. in Moscow. The ruble gained 0.2 percent to 39.2405 per euro and rose 0.2 percent

against the central banks euro-dollar basket. The yield on the governments ruble debt due March 2014 fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 6.66 percent. Oil has gained and volatility has declined, helping the ruble to strengthen, Alexander Morozov, the chief economist for Russia at HSBC Holdings Plc in Moscow, said by email today. Oil, the countrys main revenue earner, added as much as $1.19 to $93.92 a barrel in New York. The U.S. Commerce Department reported retail sales advanced 0.8 percent, the first gain in four months and more than the 0.3 percent estimated by economists polled by Bloomberg.Germanys gross domestic product rose 0.3 in the second quarter, beating estimates. Investors pared bets on the ruble falling further, with non-deliverable forwards showing the currency slipping to 32.3325 in three months, versus 32.3765 per dollar yesterday.

Risk Rally
While oil is a supportive factor for the ruble, the Russian currency hasnt matched the rally in the commodity, Vladimir Kolychev, head of research at Societe Generale SAs OAO Rosbank (ROSB) unit in Moscow, said by e-mail today. This probably speaks for the overall investor cautiousness toward the sustainability of the risk rally in the ruble, he said. In this context the ruble is likely to stay in close range near 35 against the by-currency basket with the European news flow remaining the major driver for the local currency. The extra yield investors demand to own Russias dollar bonds over U.S. Treasuries fell six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 222, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.s EMBI Global Index. The finance ministry today said that it plans to sell 15 billion rubles of five-year OFZ bonds tomorrow with a yield between 7.57 percent and 7.62 percent. It was only logical to go for a shorter maturity given the slow mode of the holiday season and uncertain risk sentiment globally, Kolychev said. The yield guidance is close to where the market is at the moment. Kolychev said that placing up to two-thirds of the debt would be a good outcome for the auction.