Ohio Results

For 8/27/2012

Presidential Election Ohios Senate Race Governor Kasich

Americas Direction Marriage Likeability of Obama, Romney

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

Executive Summary On the afternoon and evening of August 27, 2012, Gravis Marketing and Capitol Correspondent conducted a survey of 1,397 individuals in the state of Ohio. The questions covered preference for the presidential candidates, Senate candidates Josh Mandel and Sherrod Brown, Governor Kasichs job performance, whether America is headed in the right direction, which presidential candidate is more charitable, and opinions about same sex sexual practice and marriage. The full list of questions are given on page 3. Overall, with a margin of error of 3.0%, Obama leads Romney by a 45.3% to 44.4% margin. The Senate race also remains within the statistical margin of error, with Democrat Sherrod Brown holding a narrow 43.6% to 41.4% lead over Republican Josh Mandel. The margin of error for the Senate poll is 3.1%. Both polls indicate that the undecided voters will decide the outcome of the election.

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

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Ohio Results
For 8/2/2012

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

Analysis Who is Ahead According to Age Group and Sex? Overall, Obama is ahead among women voters in every age category except the middle aged women 40-49 year old, with this group giving Romney a 44% to 43% advantage. Conversely, Romney wins every age category of men except for the 40-49 year olds, with Obama having a 3 point advantage among this demographic. How do People Feel About the Idea of Marriage for Gays? Overall, the idea is not liked, with 46% of individuals indicating disapproval and 38% ok with the idea. The issue has a generation divide, with those 40+ not favorable to the idea, while voters 18 -39 somewhat ok with the idea.

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

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Ohio Results
For 8/27/2012

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

In a race as close as this, how many percentage points does Gary Johnson take from Romney? Adding Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson to the mix decreases Romneys total count from 44.% to 43.3%, whereas Johnson lowers Obamas total take from 45.3% to 44.8%. The half a percentage point difference could make a difference in a state such as Ohio. Interestingly, the age group with the largest shift towards Romney is the younger generation aged 18 to 29. Switching to the Senate race, how much is religion playing a role? In the Senate race between Democrat Mandel and Republican Brown, Mandel leads because of his lead among Protestant or other non-denominational Christians, while Brown leads among Catholics, Jews, and Muslims, and nonaffiliated voters. Mandels 10 and a half point advantage among Protestant and other nondenominational voters is enough because the group represents a large portion of Ohio voters.
% of Total

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

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Ohio Results
For 8/2/2012

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

How do Ohio voters feel about Governor Kasichs job performance? Overall, its a close call for Governor Kasich, with 33% of individuals indicating they view his governing performance as positive, while 31% view it as negative. The difference is largely due to political affiliation, with 23% of likely Obama voters disapproving of his job performance and 28% of likely Romney voters approving of his job performance.
% of Total

Is America Heading in the Right Direction?

Presidential Election / U.S. Direction Sex Obama Romney 47.72% % of Total 40% 23.86% 20% 0% 4.08% 12.24% 0.78% 2.20% 0.78% 6.12% 2.20% Unsure

Men

% of Total

40% 27.32% 20% 6.60% 14.43%

37.42%

Women

4.74% 4.12% 3.09% 1.65% Do voters think Amer0.62% 0% Right Wrong Unsure Right Wrong Unsure Right Wrong Unsure ica is headed in the Direction Direction Direction Direction Direction Direction right direction? On the U.S. Direction whole, most think Right Direction America is on the Wrong Direction Unsure wrong direction by a margin of 52% to 28%. Theres a little differentiation according to gender, with the largest group differences being the choice between Obama and Romney,

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

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Ohio Results
For 8/27/2012

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

Survey Questions
1. Are you registered to vote? (Yes, No) 2. How likely are you to vote in this years presidential elections? (Very likely, somewhat likely, Not likely) 3. In which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself a member of? (Democrat, Republican, independent or minority party) 4. What race do you identify yourself as? (White/Caucasian, African-American, Hispanic, Asian, Other) 5. Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation? (Roman Catholic, Protestant/other nondenominational Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Other/no affiliation) 6. How old are you? (18-29, 30-39, 41-49, Over 50) 7. What is your Gender? (Male, Female) 8. Do you approve of Barack Obamas general performance as president? (Approve, Disapprove, Unsure) 9. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney? (Favorable, Unfavorable, Unsure) 10. If the Presidential election was held today and the candidates were Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and Republicans Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, for whom would you vote? 11. If the Presidential election was held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, for whom would you vote? 12. If the Ohio election for senate were held today. would you vote for Josh Mandel or Sherrod Brown. 13. How would you rate Governor Kasichs job performance? (positive , negative, unsure) 14. Do you thinking the United States of America is headed in the right direction. (right direction, wrong direction, unsure) 15. If you were broken down on the side of the road, who do you think would stop and help? Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, Paul Ryan or Joe Biden. 16. Do you believe that gay Americans Should be allowed to marry? (Yes, No, undecided) 17. On a personal note who do you think is more like you, Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? Note: the statistical methodology comprised weighing sex and age groups for anticipated voting proportions for the 2012 General Election.

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

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