August 28, 2012

Michigan 3 In Play for Steve Pestka

Amash Continues to Have Serious Vulnerabilities To: Interested Parties

From: Andrew Baumann and Angela Kuefler, GQRR

Michigans 3rd District represents a challenging, but very real, pickup opportunity for Democrat Steve Pestka. The Grand Rapids-based district continues to lean Republican, but slightly friendlier congressional lines combined with Pestkas strong profile and incumbent Justin Amashs unique and significant vulnerabilities put the race in play. Although he has been in Washington for more than a year and a half, Amash remains largely undefined to voters. And his Ron Paul-like record of casting extreme votes in the extreme minority leaves him even more open to definition than other incumbent Republicans in an already target-rich year. Meanwhile, Pestka comes out of a tough primary fight relatively unscathed and his profile as an independent former judge, prosecutor and current small business owner resonates with these West Michigan voters. After both candidates are introduced to voters with a positive profile, the race is a dead heat, at 46 to 48 percent, well within the margin of error. The following are key findings from a poll of 501 likely voters conducted August 18-21.1

Key Findings
District conservative, but partisan landscape improved after redistricting. The addition of Battle Creek and Calhoun County in redistricting made this seat slightly more Democratic and, in fact, Obama won the vote in 2008 within the new district. Democrats have a 6-point party ID advantage in the new portions of the district, and just a 4-point deficit across the entire district. Primary, barrage of anti-Obama ads have not hurt Pestka vis--vis Amash. Despite dealing with a somewhat contentious primary and a political landscape that has seen Mitt Romney and his allies vastly outspend Barack Obama and his allies in the state, Pestkas starting point against Amash has not deteriorated. In fact, with an initial 42 to 50 percent deficit, Pestka has gained three points since our February survey, an increase within the surveys margin of error. Pestkas profile resonates with voters. As we noted, the less-well known Pestka begins the survey trailing the incumbent by 8 points. But after voters are read a positive profile on each candidate, the gap closes to just two points, 46 to 48 percent. Pestkas profile particularly resonates with the more conservative-leaning independents of the district, among
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Michigan 3 In Play for Pestka

whom he picks up 9 points here. This solid shift towards Pestka comes before any negatives against Amash are introduced, indicating that Pestkas profile as an independent, small business owner and former prosecutor and judge alone can move voters here. Amash has significant vulnerabilities. Amash is relatively undefined for an incumbent and earns only lukewarm ratings. Just 60 percent of voters give him a non-neutral rating, and his favorability is split at 32 percent favorable against 28 percent unfavorable. And his extreme voting record has not played with voters in the middle of the electorate as moderates give him a poor 18 to 38 percent favorable/unfavorable rating. More important, while Amash is saddled with the same significant vulnerabilities as most incumbent Republicans (support of the Ryan plan to end Medicare and his votes to raise taxes on the middle class while cutting taxes on the wealthy), Amash is particularly vulnerable because of his series of inexplicable votes that are out of touch with the districteven among other Republicans. For example, Amash was the only member of the Michigan Legislature to vote to allow utility companies to shut off the heat to Michigan seniors and to allow health care professionals convicted of a sex offense to keep their medical license. Nearly two-thirds of voters say each of these issues raise serious doubts in their mind about Amash.

Margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level is 4.4 percentage points. All votes reported in this memo are based on a simulation in which Pestka is allocated 80 percent of the districts African American vote, a conservative estimate which is less than his African American vote share in our previous survey, and less than any Democrat will likely receive on Election Day. In our more than two-decades worth of polling in Michigan, we have occasionally found African American sub-samples in our Grand Rapids polling to significantly underestimate Democratic support, and make it a normal practice to run these simulations. However, we believe in being completely transparent about this methodology.

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August, 2012