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FMGXVIIIA
FORESCHOOLOFMANAGEMENT

ManagerialEconomicsFinalProjectReport ! 2
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Preface
heIndianpowersectorissuchamagnanimousentityinitselfthatdecipheringthe
intricate nuances of the sector becomes synonymous to fishing in the dark. Never
the less, this project is an earnest attempt made to unravel the dilemma of the
IndianPowerSector.
India is such a diverse country both in terms of geography and demography that
narrowingdowntoafewparametersthatareresponsibleforthechange/alterationof
the demand of power is next to impossible. Hence, a better approach in determining
thepowerdemandacrossIndiaistotakeintoaccountthevariousseasonalvariations
aswellastheinfluencesofthedifferentregionsinIndia.
Acknowledgement
ThegroupmemberswouldsincerelyliketothankDr.RavikeshSrivastavaforhisunending
supportandmotivationtowardstheexecutionoftheproject.Withouthisguidance,the
reportwouldnothavetakentheshapethatithastakenatthismoment.
Wed also like to thank all the fellow students of FMG XVIII section A for their constant
pep-talkandencouragement.
Thankingoneandallforallthehelpventedtotheexecutionoftheproject.
GourabKundu
SamarthGulati
CijilDiclause
AkshatVaid
HarshdeepGarg
T

ManagerialEconomicsFinalProjectReport ! 3
TableofContents
1.Introduction
2.ProjectObjective
3.ProjectMethodology
4.Dataandparameters
5.SimpleRegression
a.PercapitaannualincomeinRupees
b.Population
c.Priceindexwith'93asindexof100
d.GrossnationalProduct
6.MultipleRegressionModel
a.DegreeofCorrelation
b.MultipleRegressionModel
c.MultipleRegressionModelObtained
d.PredictionaccordingtomultipleregressionmodelofpowerinIndia
7.MovingAverages
a.3yearmovingaverage
b.5yearmovingaverage
8.ExponentialSmoothing
a.DumpingFactor/Weight:0.3
b.DumpingFactor/Weight:0.5
9.SeasonalTrendAnalysis
a.RegionwiseAnalysis
b.EquationforRegression
c.WhySeasonalVariations?
d.TrendanalysisinNorthIndia
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3/23 www.scribd.com/doc/26714614/Indian-Power-Sector-Demand-and-supply
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e.TrendanalysisinSouthI ndia
f.TrendanalysisinNorthIndia
g.TrendAnalysisRegions/Seasons
h.PowerTrading
10.ArimaandAnalysis
11.Annexure

ManagerialEconomicsFinalProjectReport !
! !
4
1.Introduction
Indian power sector has attained insurmountable importance because of the huge
boom in Indias economy. In fact, the visionary in Dr. Manmohan Singh has
acknowledgedthefactthatitiselectricitythatisadrivingfactorforIndiaseconomy.
He was so forthright that he laid no stone unturned to have India sign the Indo-US
Nuclear Civil Agreement. Perhaps power has become the most important commodity
thatneedstobetakenintoaccountfortheestimationofIndiasGDP.
ButalotneedstobedoneintheIndianPowerSector.Asamatteroffactjust44%ofthe
rural households have access to electricity. This statement is both a danger and an
opportunity for India. A lot of uncaptured demand for power can be tapped into
hence, an industry as large as the Power sector awaits expansion of magnanimous
proportions.
SomefactsandfiguresabouttheIndianPowerSector:
DuetoIndia'seconomicupturn,thedemandforenergyinIndiahasgrownatan
averageof3.6%perannuminthepast30years.

The theft of electricity, a common phenomenon in most parts of urban India
amountstoabout1.5%ofIndia'stotalGDP.
Indiaisworld's6thlargestenergyconsumer,accountingfor3.4%ofglobalenergy
consumption.
Electricity losses in India during transmission and distribution are extremely high
andvarybetween30to45%.
Electricitydemandoutstrippingsupplyby7-11%,isatrendinthepastfewyears.
Thegovernmentpolicytodate:
100% FDI is permitted in generation, transmission and distribution of power. The
Governmentisinclinedtodrawprivateinvestmentinthesector.
Thevariouskindsofprojectsthatare/willbeundertakeninthecomingmonths/yearsin
India:
HydroProjects
UltraMegaPowerProjects
NuclearPower
RuralElectrification
RenewableSourcesofEnergy

ManagerialEconomicsFinalProjectReport !
5
2.ProjectObjective
Theprojectobjectiveshavebeenclassifiedasfollows:
Forecastingthedemandofpowerinthecomingyears2009-10,2010-11,2011-12.
Understanding the intricacies of the Indian Power Sector by looking into the
variousgeographicalregions.
Collatingdatathatestablishestheinfluenceofseasonsonthedemandofpower
inIndia.
3.ProjectMethodology
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ThefollowingtoolshavebeenusedtodeterminethedemandofpowerinIndia:
SimpleRegression
MultipleRegressionModel
Moving Averages
ExponentialSmoothing
SeasonalTrendAnalysis(byRegion)
AutoRegressionIntegratedMovingAverages(ARIMA)
4.Dataandparameters
Datausedfortenure
1981to2008
Parametersconsidered:
PerCapitaIncomeinIndiainRupees
PopulationofIndia
PriceIndexofelectricitywith1993asIndex=100
(GNP)GrossNationalProductinRupees
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