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INTRODUCTION
1.0
PROJECT BACKGROUND
Nowadays, pop corn can be made even without the popcorn maker. There are other ways like using microwave and saucepan1. In this research, we are focusing on making popcorn by using microwave. Microwave is used instead of saucepan is due to the result of our brainstorming session which is guided by the SMART analysis. Figure 1.1 show the result of SMART analysis between saucepan and microwave. The end result while making popcorn is to have high number of popped corn compare to the un-popped corn. A study2 in 1993 was conducted to find out the factors that influence the number of popped corn. However, the finding is concluded as a failure as there is no significance factors are found. This study will benchmark the factors used by the previous study and brainstorm among the members to identify the variables that might influence the result of popped-corn.
S
Microwave / Saucepan x
M
/ /
A
/ x
R
/ x
T
/ x
1.1
PROBLEM STATEMENT
There are lots of kernels in the market that come out with different packaging and instruction on the packaging on how making the popcorn (Appendix1). The problem is does the instruction given will produce the high number of popped
Kookies, How to make popcorn without a popcorn maker, 2009, (answers.yahoo.com/quation/index?qid=20090227105628AA0wdpW) 2 Applying DOE to microwave popcorn, Mark. J. Anderson and Hank P. Anderson (1993)
corn as wanted by the maker?. What is the right combination that can boost up the number of popped-corn.
1.2
OBJECTIVE
Identify factors that affect the end result of the pop-corn making. Recommending the best combination of factor in pop-corn making. Develop the regression equation to predict the CTQ (Response variable)
2.0
FACTOR, LEVEL AND RESPONSE SELECTION As mention in chapter 1, we benchmark the factors used in the previous study2
2.1
and brainstorm on the factors that might influence the yield of the popcorn. Figure 1.2 shows the Fishbone Diagram that sum up the output of the brainstorming session. After that, we come out with Cause and Effect matrix (Figure 1.3) to identify and select the factors.
R an k 1 1 2 1 1 1
Process Step Process Steps & Key Process Input 1 2 3 4 5 6 Variables Setting on the microwave Put Kernels on the Paper Bag
KPIV Brand/Price Use Margarines Preheat Tray Elevate Temperature Time Cooking Surrounding Temperature Reverse Score Reverse Rank of 9 9 1 9 9 9
10
2.2
Two level will be used which are low (-) and high (+). The low level is believed
to give low impact while the high level is believed to give high impact. The level is set based on information on given on the packaging (Appendix 1) and also the level stated by
the previous study. The additional factor which is margarine is derived from the information on simple.recipe (appendix 2) which required the used of oil to enhance the yield of the corn. Figure 1.4 shows the parameters which include the factors and level that will be used in this experiment.
FACTOR TEMPERATURE
LEVEL (-)
LEVEL (+)
High
MARGARINE
2 Minute
3 Minute
Figure 1.4
Level set up
2.3
this study, the response or the CTQ will be the weight (g) of un-popped corn left after the process of popcorn making take place. In this experiment, the flour weight scale with the resolution 0.01 is used. The small resolution is used in order to avoid human error while reading the weight of the kernels. See Figure 1.5
Figure 1.5
Weight Scale
Cooking Time
Tray Elevate
Temperature
Brand/Price
Margarine
Figure 1.6
Surrounding heat
3.0
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
As mention in previous chapter, there are 6 factors chosen. Five (5) factors that can be controlled while one (1) factor cannot be control which is surrounding heat. Hence, to see is there any significant different on surrounding heat, we decide to block the experiment by using day and night with the justification that the heat on day is higher than night heat. In order to avoid the existing heat of microwave affecting the reading of the next experiment, after every experiment, the microwave is left to be cooled for 10 minutes. The full experiment need to be conducted in this project is 25 = 32 which derived from the formula of full factorial nk. To avoid any error on measuring and experiment we decide to run the experiment with 3 replication and 3 repetitions. However, the total experiment need to be run is 3(25) = 96 times which too many. Hence, we decide to use fractional factorial with quarter experiment with 3 repeated measure and 3 replication which give 3(25-2) = 24 times of experiment. The quarter is chose instead of half is due to below justification:
3.0.1
Limited resources Conducting 96 experiments required lots of kernels, margarine, paper bag and other resources which are a waste for the experimenter. Beside, long time consuming will be required and experimenter cannot fulfill it due to other commitment.
3.0.2
Capabilities/Durability of Machine (Microwave) The capabilities of the microwave are limited to little extent. Excess usage of the microwave might blow up the microwave.
The fractional factorial is used to screen out important factors. Full factorial will be conducted after unimportant factors is screened out so that the factors can be analyzed without any confounded or aliased. Figure 1.7 shows the process flow of this experiment.
START
Re-level
Y
ANALYZE
CHAPTER 4
4.0
4.1
Fractional Factorial The Table 4.1 below show the matrix diagram for fractional factorial, 25-2 been conducted. The experiment below is blocked with Day and Night. It randomizely done. The result below represent the average from 3 repeated measure and 3 replications. 4.1.2 This 25-2 experiment is having Resolution III confounding which means that:
4.1.1
4.1.2.1 There is no main effect is confounded with another main effect 4.1.2.2 Main effect are confounded with two-factors interaction The confounding for this 25-2 popcorn experiment are as below:
4.1.3
4.1.3.1 I + ABD + ACE + BCDE 4.1.3.2 A + BD + CE + ABCDE 4.1.3.3 B + AD + CDE + ABCE 4.1.3.4 C + AE + BDE + ABCD 4.1.3.5 D + AB + BCE + ACDE 4.1.3.6 E + AC + BCD + ABDE 4.1.3.7 BE + CD + ABC + ADE
Block
Exp Num 1
Run Order 1 3 4 2 2 1 3 4
Price/ Brand
Margarine Cooking Temperature Tray Time 3 min 2 min 3 min 2 min 3 min 3 min 2 min 2 min High High Medium Medium Medium High High Medium Elevate Direct Direct Indirect Indirect Direct Indirect Indirect Direct
CTQs (gram) 43.5 g 44.0 g 71.4 g 99.75 g 70.35 g 18.0 g 56.0 g 78.0 g
DAY
2 3 4 5
NIGHT
6 7 8
TESCO NO ACI II NO
CHAPTER 5
ANALYSIS
5.0
All the analyzing that is proven by Minitab is attached to this report as an appendix.
5.1
Normality Test
Normality test is used to make sure the distribution of the data gain from the experiment by using Minitab 1.5.
Ho : The data is normally distributed HA : The data is not normally distributed Based on the result of the normality test, p-value is equal to 0.0850 which is greater than 0.05, so the null hypothesis is fail to reject. Thus, the data is normally distributed.
5.2
FACTORS Price/Brand
MAIN EFFECT (+) = (71.4 + 44.0 + 18 + (+) (-) 78.0) / 4 = 52.85 (-) = (43.5 + 99.75 + 70.35 + 56.0)/4 = 67.4 (+) = ( 71.4 + 99.75 + (+) (-) 18.0 + 56)/4 = 61.29 (-) = (43.5 + 44.0 + 70.35 + 78) / 4 = 58.96 (+) = (43.5 + 44.0 + 18 + (+) (-) 56)/4 = 40.38 (-) = (71.4 + 99.75 + 70.35 + 78.0)/4 = 79.88 (+) = (43.5 + 71.4 + (+) (-) 70.35 + 18) / 4 = 50.81 (-) = (44.0 + 99.75 + 56 + 78) / 4 = 69.44 (+) = (44.0 + 99.75 + (+) (-) 70.35 + 18)/4 = 58.03 (-) = (43.5 + 71.4 + 56 + = 62.23 58.03 = - 4. 2 = 50.81 69.44 = -18.63 = 40.38 79.88 = -39.5 = 61.29 58.96 = 2.33 = 52.85 67.4 = -14.55
Tray Elevate
Temperature
Time Cooking
Margarine
Figure 1.8
Based on the main effect plot, we identify three important factor which is the Brand/Price, Cooking Time and Temperature. Full factorial experiment is conducted through the use of these 3 factors. Before conducting the full factorial, we test the significant of these three factors to ensure that the level is used correctly. Table 4.3 shows the result of the significance test.
Factors
Hypothesis
Brand/Price
Ho : There is no significance P = 0.221 different between branded and low Null hypothesis is failed brand of kernels towards the output HA : to reject as p is greater
different between branded and low There is no significance brand of kernels towards the output different on branded low brand kernels Temperature Ho
:
temperature towards the output of rejected as p is less than kernels HA : 0.05. There is significance There medium and is significance
different
Time
Ho
different between 2 minutes and 3 Null hypothesis is fail to minutes towards the output of reject as the p value is kernels HA : greater than 0.05 . There is significance There is no significance
different between 2 minutes and 3 different on 2 minutes minutes towards the output of and 3 minutes kernels
Figure 4.3
As the cooking time is not significant, we decide to increase the level for full factorial experiment.
The significance of Day and Night also been measured to identify whether the surrounding heat gives impact towards the yield of the corn by using two t-test. The result of the two t-test is shown in the Table 4.4
Hypothesis
hypothesis
Ho : There is no significance different P = 0.648 on between Day and Night Null hypothesis is fail to reject as the p HA : There is significance different value is higher than 0.05. between Day and Night There is no significance different between Day and Night. Figure 4.4 Result of significance test on the block.
5.3
After verifying the important factor that influences the yield of the kernels, we conduct the full factorial experiment by using Table 4.5 parameters.
Factors Brand/Prices
Level (+)
Level (-)
Temperature
3 minutes
1.5 minutes
5.3.1
The Cooking Time is once again taken as factors even the result in the fractional factorial shows it is significance due to the reason on finding if the popcorn can be make faster (low cooking time) with good amount of unpopped corn. Hence, in this full factorial, we adjusted the level of Time from 2 minutes and 3 minutes into 1.5 minutes to 3 minutes.
5.3.2
The same step is repeated. Figure 1.9 shows the matrix diagram for full factorial experiment and its result (gram). 23 = 8 experiment is runs with three (3) repeated measures and 3 replications. The figure 1.9 shows the average of the results.
Exp No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Run Order 4 6 2 8 1 7 3 5
Brand/Price
Cooking Time
Temperature
CTQ (g)
3 min 3 min 1.5 min 1.5 min 3 min 3 min 1.5 min 1.5 min
5.3.3
Normality Test Normality test is used to ensure that the result is normally distributed. Ho : The data is normally is distributed. HA : The data is not normally distributed.
The p-value is equal to 0.164 which is greater than 0.05. Thus, null hypothesis is fail to reject which means that the data is normally distributed.
5.3.4
Main effect plot for full factorial is develop to identify the effect of each factor towards the yield of the kernels. Figure 1.10 shows the main effect of full factorial.
FACTORS Price/Brand
MAIN EFFECT (+) = (18 + 62.5 + 99.0 + (+) (-) 100) / 4 = 69.88 (-) = (58.5 + 71.5 + 90.0 + 100)/4 = 69.88 80 = -10.12
= 80 Temperature (+) = ( 18 + 99.0 + 58.5 (+) (-) + 90.0)/4 = 66.37 (-) = (62.5 + 100 + 71.5 + 100) / 4 = 83.5 Cooking Time (+) = (18 + 62.5 + 58.5 + (+) (-) 71.5)/4 = 52.63 (-) = (99.0 + 100 + 100 + 90)/4 = 97.25 = 52.63- 97.25 = - 44.63 = 66.37-83.5 = -17.13
5.3.5
Factors
Hypothesis
Brand/Price
Ho : The branded kernels gives no P = 0.731 influenced to the numbers of un- The p value is greater popped corn HA corn. : than 0.05 so the null The branded kernels is hypothesis is fail to
give no influence to the yield of popped corn. Temperature Ho : The high or low temperature P = 0.572 producing the equal number of Null hypothesis is fail to reject as the p value is unpopped corn
HA : The high temperature give high greater than 0.05. number of popped-corn compare to Thus, the medium there is no difference in the number of un-popped corn with the use of high or
medium temperature. Cooking Time Ho : The 3 minutes cooking time gives P = 0.038 same amount of 1.5 minutes popped corn un- Null hypothesis is rejected as the p value is
HA : The 3 minutes cooking time less than 0.05. popped different from 1.5 minutes. Thus, the 3 minutes and 1.5 minutes cooking
time produced different unpopped corn amount Table 4.6 The significance test for full factorial experiment.
Based on the significance test conducted on the main effect plot, Time factor is the only factor that gives significant value in this experiment. To be compare with the fractional factorial, temperature is the significant one, however due to any confounding; it turns to be not significant in the full factorial.
5.3.6
5.3.6.1 Interaction plot is develop to measure or identify the interaction between the factors. Figure 1.11 shows the interaction plot of full factorial experiment between the three factors.
Brand (A) ACI (+) ACI (+) ACI (+) ACI (+) TESCO (-) TESCO (-) TESCO (-) TESCO (-) Cooking Time (B) II 3 min (+) II 3 min (+) II 1.5 min (-) II 1.5 min (-) 3 min (+) 3 min (+) 1.5 min (-) 1.5 min (-) Temperature (C) High (+) Medium (-) High (+) Medium (-) High (+) Medium (-) High (+) Medium (-) = Interaction Effect 58.5/4 = -14.63 - = -22.5 / 4 = - 5.63 = -46.5/4 = -11.63 100.0 100 100 100 90.0 90.0 -90.0 -90.0 71.5 - 71.5 71.5 -71.5 58.5 -58.5 -58.5 58.5 100 -100 -100 100 99.0 - 99.0 99.0 - 99.0 62.5 62.5 - 62.5 -62.5 CTQ (Y) 18 AB*Y 18 AC*Y 18 BC*Y 18
(-)
(+) (-)
BrandTemperature (AC)
(+)
(+) (-)
(-)
(+) (-)
TimeTemperature (BC)
(+)
(+) (-)
(-)
(+) (-)
Figure 1.12 Interaction Plot Effect 5.3.7 Figure 1.12 shows the interaction of the factors with each other. Based on the graph, the interaction of Brand and Cooking Time give strong interaction effect. ANOVA will be conducted to identify the significance of the factors interaction.
5.3.8
ANOVA 5.3.8.1 Two Way ANOVA is used to identify the significance of every interaction. Table 4.7 shows the result of the significance test.
Factors
Hypothesis
BrandTime
Ho give
The
interaction
different
popped-corn HA : The interaction P = 0.285 Null Hypothesis is fail to reject as the p value is greater than 0.05. Thus, the interaction between brand and time is having no significance different towards the CTQ. BrandTemperature Ho : The interaction and no to
between brand and time give significance different towards the yield of
popped corn
yield of popped-corn HA : between temperature significance towards the The interaction P = 0.831 brand and Null hypothesis is fail to reject as the p give value is greater than 0.05. different Thus, the interaction between brand and yield of temperature is having no significance different towards the CTQ
popped corn
TimeTemperature
Ho
The
interaction
popped-corn
HA : time
between temperature and Null hypothesis is fail to reject as the p give significance value is greater than 0.05.
different towards the yield Thus the interaction of temperature and of popped corn time give no significance different towards the CTQ Figure 4.7 Significance Result of ANOVA toward full factorial.
Based on the significance test result shown in figure 4.7, the there is no interaction that give significance different towards the CTQ which is the unpopped corn.
6.0
Based on the analysis done in previous chapter, we conclude that the Cooking Time factor is the important and significance one.
Based on figure 1.10, the circle one is the wanted number of un-popped corn as it less. Referring to this figure, lowest amount (weight) of un-popped corn is comes with the use of ACI II brand, High temperature with 3 minutes cooking times. This is due to the main effect plot, we can see that by using positive (+) level on brand which is ACI II (in this study), the CTQ or the result of the un-popped corn is lower than the negative (-) level. It same goes to the temperature and cooking time factor. The (+) level gives less amount of un-popped corns compare to the (-) level. However, as been analyzed before, the only factor that is significance is Time. Hence, to come out with the same result, (less amount of un-popped corn) but more economically and saving the cost, we propose to use the (-) of brand, in this study, TESCO is the one. This is for the reason that the two brands is not significance. Thus,
pop corn maker can still have the less number of un-popped corns with low branding kernels but it should come with the high temperature and time. We come out with regression to predict the amount of un-popped corn. 10 samples are taken by using TESCO brand and 50gram of kernels. We use High temperature. We stop the data or experiment once the kernels started to burnt. We repeated the measuring for 3 times. The table 4.8 shows the average of the data gain from 3 repeating measures.
Exp Num 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Weight 50g 50g 50g 50g 50g 50g 50g 50g 50g 50g
Temperature High High High High High High High High High High
Time 0.5 min 1 min 1.5 min 2.0 min 2.5 min 3.0 min 3.5 min 4 min 4.5 min 5 min
Result 50g 49.5 g 49.5 g 46.2 g 45 g 34.5 g 34.5 g 30.0 g 20.7 g 20.7 g Mean 38.06 SD 11.60
Table 4.8 Samples for Regression development We calculate the regression sample by using Minitab 1.5. The result are shown below.
The R square is equal to 92.6% or 0.926 which shows that the correlation between time and the CTQ (weight of un-popped corn) is 92.6 %. The R adjusted shows that the success of the model or formula is 91.6 % or it also can be said that the formula has accounted for 91.6% of the variance in the criterion variable. The formula of the regression is We are 95 % confidence that by using the obtained data as shown in table 4.8, the mean will be within 30.87 to 45.25. ( Figure 1.13) 95% CI = = 38.06 = 38.06 1.96 ( ) Figure 1.13 1.96 ( 7.19)
= 30.87. ; 45.25
7.0
REFERENCES 1 Kookies, How to Make Popcorn Without a Popcorn Maker, (2009), answers.yahoo.com/quation/index?qid=20090227105628AA0wdpW 2 Mark.J Anderson, Hank P. Anderson, Applying DOE to Microwave Popcorn, Statistical Tool for Improvement, (August 1993)